Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Portland Trail Blazers are playing great defense this year. It would surprise most people to learn that the Blazers are currently the third best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Portland also has slowed down their pace of play. They rank 15th out of 30 in the league in tempo. Orlando is one of the 5 slowest paced teams in the league. Orlando also has the second least efficient offense in the league (only the 76ers are worse). The Magic's terrible offense combined with Portland's strong defense should mean the Magic don't put up many points here. The Blazers are dinged up right now and likely just want out of this one with a win. 

The under is 39-16 in the Magic's last 55 road games. The under is 4-1 in the Blazers last 5 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Tempo Total* The Hofstra Pride have picked up the pace a lot under their new coach from last year. He has a long history of forcing the tempo and Elon won't want to slow it down. In fact, Elon uses a full court press to try to create easy opportunities. These two teams push the issue more than anyone else in the conference, so this one sets up well for an over. Look for the tempo to lead this one over the posted total. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* SIU Edwardsville is a much improved team. They showed me a lot in their close loss to Belmont earlier this week. Edwardsville has a lot of good athletes who can shoot it well from long range. Tennessee State is a really bad team, and they have typically just been playing to the pace of their opponent. Look for Edwardsville to put up a pretty big number here. The pace should be quick enough to get this over a low total. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Valparaiso Crusaders and Cleveland State Vikings played twice last year and the final totals of those games were 119 points and 115 points. Both teams are very similar to last year, and their pace of play has actually slowed just a bit. These are two teams who generally play pretty solid defense. I had this total at 123 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB TV Total* The West Virginia Mountaineers and Iowa State Cyclones should put on quite a show on Saturday night. Both of these teams have a very high upside, and they both have tremendous offensive firepower. The Mountaineers are using full court pressure to get easy buckets in transition. Iowa State has a force on the inside in Niang and the Cyclones have several outside shooters as well. I had this one at 153 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Dayton Flyers lost their big men a few weeks ago after they were kicked off the team for off the court problems. Since that time, Dayton has picked up the tempo because they need to utilize their speed and skill in the backcourt. Fordham is always willing to run and gun, and Fordham is terrible on the defensive end. Jon Severe is back for Fordham and he'll help their offense run more smoothly. I had 135 here. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Getting some value on the over here because IPFW played such a low scoring game last time out. That was against the Denver Pioneers though, and Denver plays slower than any other team in the league. South Dakota likes to run, and I expect the tempo here to be pretty quick. Both teams have a couple very good scorers. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams just played a week ago, with the final score going four points over the posted total. I think that game was a good indicator of what should happen here as far as the total. These two teams both play bad halfcourt defense, so there should be a lot of easy buckets on both ends. Manhattan presses full court and gets a lot of turnovers and also fouls out. Plenty of scoring opportunities. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Davidson Wildcats are great at pushing the pace and scoring efficiently. They are even better offensively on their home floor, and they are home for this game. Davidson should outclass a St. Louis team that is far worse than they have been in recent years. The Billikens will attempt to slow the game down early, but once they get behind they'll be forced to play more at Davidson's tempo. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona State Sun Devils and the Oregon Ducks are both teams built around their offenses. Both teams can bomb away from long distance, so expect to see a lot of made three-point field goals in this one. The tempo should be quick as both teams prefer to run when given the opportunity. I had this number at 141 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The William & Mary Tribe are a team I like to back the over with because they are so efficient on offense. Their totals are usually set low because they play relatively slowly, but their efficient offense and poor defense usually make up for that. James Madison doesn't have a good defense, so they will likely give up a lot of easy buckets here. This number is too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star Louisville/UNC Total* The North Carolina Tar Heels and Louisville Cardinals both love to run. The only reason this total isn't higher is because both teams also play excellent defense. The reason I like this play is I believe both coaches know their offenses aren't very good in the halfcourt, and we'll see a lot more transition baskets in this one. The tempo here should be lightning quick. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Towson Tigers and Northeastern Huskies are both teams that like to slow the game down and win with ball control and defense. Towson's offense is atrocious this year. The Towson Tigers have consistently only been able to score in the halfcourt when they get offensive rebounds, unfortunately for them the strength of this Northeastern team is grabbing defensive boards. Without second chance opportunities, I can't see Towson scoring many points here. The tempo of the game makes this a strong play. I had this one at 118 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls have done a really nice job getting their opponents to play at their pace of late. Buffalo is running and scoring in transition as often as possible. Western Michigan's offense is very efficient, and their defense is among the worst in the league. I had this one at 147 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total* The Wagner Seahawks and Robert Morris Colonials get a rare national TV game tonight. It's always nice for programs like this to get some television time, and I think both teams will be excited for this one. Wagner and Robert Morris both like to play with lots of tempo, and this should be an up and down type of game. Wagner has also fouled more than any other team in the nation (351 teams). Robert Morris has an efficient offense, and the Colonials haven't been good on defense this year. Wagner's defense is terrible in the paint, which should allow for plenty of layups. Bad defense and lots of tempo. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night MONEY* The UTEP Miners have typically been a team that slows the game down a lot, but this year they are playing much faster than they have been. Louisiana Tech is a team that wants to play fast all the time, and the Bulldogs will absolutely want to use their full court zone press to speed this game up. This number is set as if UTEP was still playing the stall ball method that they used a couple years ago. I set this one at 145 points. 

The over is 4-0 in LA Tech's last 4 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. A 12-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Total* The Texas State Bobcats have a coach that wants to slow the tempo down at all times. How good are they at slowing the game down? Texas State has played a 40-36 game as well as a 57-26 game this year. The Bobcats will control the tempo at home here. Arkansas Little Rock was previously a team that liked to get out in transition, but they are now playing much slower. Neither offense is efficient so I don't think the shooting numbers here will be particularly high. I had this one at a whopping seven points below the total at 116 points. Take the under big! 

*4 Star Play Over* The Elon Phoenix play at the fastest tempo of any team in the CAA. They also use a full court press to do their best to dictate the pace of the game. William & Mary is probably the best team in the CAA, and the Tribe can score points in a hurry. William & Mary shoots the ball very well. Elon does force a lot of turnovers though, and I see them scoring some easy buckets off the press. The fact that these teams have never seen each other in the past (Elon is new to the league) helps this one a lot. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners do like to play fast as their nickname would imply. Southern Miss is a really bad team this year, and they have typically let their opponent pick the style of play. Southern Miss does have some good shooters though, and UTSA's defense is among the worst in the entire country. Expect plenty of trips to the line for both teams in this one, and with a total set at this mark the value is on the over. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames like to try to speed up the tempo of the game, and they also have a really bad defense. Valparaiso is the best team in the Horizon League, and the Crusaders should be able to score a lot of points here. I don't think this game will be very close, but it's a game where Valpo could put up 75 points or more. With a low total here, I'm taking the over. 

*4 Star Play NCAA BB Totals TKO* The MTSU Blue Raiders have been extremely consistent at keeping the game low scoring this year. None of their games have gone past 126 points in regulation this year. That's an amazing stat this deep into the year. FIU has slowed their pace down by three possessions per game this year. They will be glad to play a slow game that is defense oriented like MTSU does. This looks like a sloppy game all the way with both teams finishing in the 50's. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mercer Bears are a defense oriented team. Mercer slows the game down and wins with ball control and defense. While Mercer's record this year isn't impressive, the Bears should be very competitive in league play. Mercer scheduled up in non-conference action. East Tennessee State has a good offense, but they have piled up a bunch of points against some very bad defenses this year. Five of the last six meetings between these two teams have stayed under this posted total. I had this one at 135. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Delaware Blue Hens won the CAA tournament and made it to the NCAA Tournament last year. That was then, and now Delaware has what is probably the worst team in the league. Delaware's defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, and UNC Wilmington plays at an extremely fast tempo. I think Wilmington will control the tempo here and in a game with tons of possessions on both sides, I have to take the over at a number this low. I had this one at 137 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons offense has been downright awful in recent games. Despite the fact they have played against teams who normally give up quite  a few points, Drexel's shooting numbers have been terrible. The Dragons always play at a slow tempo, and this year Towson is playing even slower than them. Towson's only method of scoring in most games this year has been offensive rebounds and free throws. Drexel is good at defensive rebounding and not fouling so that should help keep this one low scoring. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Pioneers play at a very slow pace, but they also shoot the ball extremely well and play virtually no defense. That makes them a unique team that stalls, but still has some relatively high scoring games. IPFW was the league favorite, but they have started the season slowly with their top scorer being dinged up. Steve Forbes, their top scorer, is getting healthy again now, and I think IPFW can put up points on a bad Denver defense that sends opponents to the line a lot. I had this one at 136 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The VMI Keydets have played one game all year that went below 140 points. VMI plays at the single fastest tempo of any team in the nation. While Wofford doesn't exactly play fast, it should be noted that they are playing much faster than they did last year. Wofford's offense is also very efficient, and I think they'll shred up this weak VMI defense. Take the over here. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Golden State Warriors are well known for their amazing offense, but not enough people give them credit for the defense they play. Golden State is easily number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Steve Kerr has this team very committed on the defensive end of the court. Indiana struggled a bit defensively early this year, but the Pacers have gotten much better as they have gotten healthier in recent weeks. The Pacers won't want to run with Golden State, so they should slow the tempo down quite a bit here. The referee crew for this game is very favorable for the under as well. Expect a strong defensive effort from both teams. I think this game stays below 200 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The DePaul Blue Demons haven't been pushing the tempo as much in recent games, and they have actually won two straight contests. They probably won't win this game, but I do think they stay away from running and gunning. Creighton's offense was so efficient last year with Doug McDermott and company, but this Blue Jays team doesn't have the same offensive ability. Creighton is slowing the game down more, and I think this total is lined too much like last year. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons just lost their leading rebounder and top assists man in Kam Williams. Without him, Air Force will have even more trouble scoring than they have already had this season. Air Force plays at an extremely slow tempo, and San Jose State plays pretty slow as well. The Spartans have some of their players back from a suspension, but not all of them. This is a game where there probably won't even be 60 possessions for each team, and with two inefficient offenses I have to take the under here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are playing very quickly under new head coach Danny Manning. Manning loves to use full court pressure to speed up the game. Louisville put up 85 points on them in their last game, and this Duke Blue Devils offense is much better than Louisville's. Duke is the number one offense in the nation, and I think they put up a big number here. Duke is more than happy to run with the kind of athleticism and depth they have this year. This one has a good chance of getting to 150, which makes it a nice value here. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LaSalle Explorers are a team that typically plays to the pace of their opponent. The pace of their opponent in this game is very quick. UMass has had a couple of rare games where they allow the opponent to slow the game down, but I don't think they make that mistake here. UMass and LaSalle played to a 146 point final score last year, and I think this one gets up around 140 as well. This one is a few points too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers started the season out playing quickly, but their tempo has slowed down drastically in the last few games. Xavier put up some big point totals early in the year against teams who were really bad on the defensive end of the court. That certainly isn't the case for Seton Hall. The Pirates are playing excellent defense this year. Seton Hall is without their top scorer Whitehead, and that has made them slow the game down more of late. I had this number at 133. Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have picked up the pace considerably the last two years. Two years ago this team was averaging 60 possessions per game, and now they are at 66 possessions per game. Ball State got a new coach last year and he sped the Cardinals up a lot as well. Both games between these two teams went comfortably over this posted total last year. Both teams are great at getting to the line. With plenty of pace and a lot of free throws, a total set this low is a strong play for me. Take the over big! 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego State Aztecs and New Mexico Lobos are actually very similar teams this year as far as their styles. Both teams prefer to slow the game down and win with their defense. This game should be played at a pace of 60 possessions or so, which is 6 possessions slower than the average game in college basketball. Obviously with fewer possessions there are less chances to score. Both of these teams lost their top scorers from last year too, and these offenses have been struggling in a big way. New Mexico has held 5 of their last 8 opponents to 55 points or less. San Diego State has held 5 of their last 8 opponents to 50 points or less. 

The under is 7-0 in New Mexico's last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in San Diego State's last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two at San Diego State. A 26-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB NCAA  BB Totals TKO* The St. John's Red Storm have lost their last two games. The Villanova Wildcats lost their last game. These are two good teams who are very hungry to get back on track here. Both teams play at an average tempo, but these are two tremendous teams on the defensive end of the floor. Villanova held VCU to 53 points and Illinois to 59 points, and those are two high scoring offenses. Interestingly, both of those games were played at Madison Square Garden, where this game will be played. Shooting percentages are almost always lower than normal at MSG because of the really difficult shooting backdrops. I made this number 128 points. I like both teams to bring their best defensive effort tonight. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* It would probably surprise a lot of people to learn that Portland ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. This Portland team is really playing well on the defensive end. Los Angeles has slowed the tempo down quite a bit in recent weeks, and Kobe Bryant will sit out this game for the Lakers. I think Los Angeles will have a lot of trouble scoring in this one. Portland should score a lot early, but they will likely take their foot off the gas later in the game. I think this line should have been 205 or so. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* This totally is a bit inflated. Dallas doesn't play particularly fast, and the Brooklyn Nets are all about slowing the game down and trying to win with defense with their new coaching staff. A total of 206 is usually reserved for two teams that will uptempo with very little defense. I don't see that as the case here. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The William & Mary Tribe are so efficient on offense, and Drexel isn't the defensive-minded team that they used to be. This one should have a lot of points. Drexel has two elite scorers and William & Mary has three. This number is set too low. I had this one at 130. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Wildcats have changed the way they play this year. Sean Miller realizes that with the type of team they have, they need to speed things up and get their opponent on the defensive in transition. Arizona is so athletic that it will be hard for Arizona State to keep them out of the paint. Arizona State's offense has been very good this year, and the Sun Devils are playing quickly so far this year as well. I had this game set at 138 points. 

The over is 5-0 in Arizona State's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 10-1 in Arizona State's last 11 road games. The over is 6-0 in Arizona's last 6 home games vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower on the road. The over is 6-0 in Arizona's last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 32-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers and the Loyola Chicago Ramblers are actually quite similar teams. They are both extremely good at slowing the game down and winning with ball control. Both of them have played multiple games this year that stayed below 100 points. There won't be many turnovers here, but there will be a lot of the shot clock running below 10 seconds before a shot goes up. I had this one at 111. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders have played 12 games against Division I opponents this year. The highest total score in those games was 126 points. They have been under this total 11 of 12 times. UAB likes to play fast if they can, but they won't dictate the tempo against MTSU, and the UAB offense is very inefficient. This should be a sloppy game with MTSU's defense playing well. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Iona Gaels are great at dictating the tempo, and getting Siena to play fast is no difficult task with their new coach Jimmy Patsos at the helm. I made this number 167. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Wyoming Cowboys play at the second slowest tempo out of 351 teams in the nation. San Jose State is now playing with zero of their original starting five for the season because of tons of injuries and several suspensions. San Jose State is so thin that they have asked players from the football team to play on the basketball team at this point. That lack of depth has made the team slow the game down in a big way of late. San Jose State scored only 33 points in their last game. This game should be extremely ugly. I had this total at 104 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* North Carolina does a really nice job of speeding the game up regardless of the type of team they are playing against. Brad Brownell's Clemson team plays at a slow pace normally, but past history between these two teams shows that UNC is one of the rare teams that can speed the game up vs. Clemson. Clemson is actually playing faster than they have in any of the last four seasons, so I think this number is a few points too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LSU Tigers will absolutely destroy Savannah State in this game. The thing that makes me like this total is the pace at which this game will be played. Savannah State isn't the type of team that slows a game down. Savannah State is extremely sloppy with the basketball, and they are allowing their opponent to score at an alarmingly high rate. LSU should get to 90 points or so here if they stay committed to their normal game plan. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Cavaliers have both made me a lot of money on the under in the last few years. Both of these teams really play good halfcourt defense. They are both really well coached teams. The tempo here should be extremely slow as both teams always work hard to slow the game down. I had this number at 113 points. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Davidson Wildcats do a really good job of getting the tempo to what they want it. Richmond will attempt to slow the game down, but Davidson's quick tempo and efficiency on offense should push this one over the posted total. I had 137 points on this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils do a nice job of pushing the tempo and I don't think they'll let Boston College slow this one down enough to keep it below the posted total. Duke's inside game is really good now, and they should put up a big number here. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* My line here was 150. My biggest play of the college hoops season thus far. 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*4 Star Play Over* The Depaul Blue Demons defense is just awful, and Xavier has been one of the most efficient offenses in the country. DePaul speeds up the tempo by using a full court press, and Xavier will be happy to be running in this one. The Musketeers should put up a big number here. The tempo gets this one above the total. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* 

*5 Star NCAA BB TGIF TOP Play* The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks play faster than any other team in the country. There are 351 teams in Division I college basketball, but Nebraska Omaha ranks number one in terms of pace. They are going to turn every game into a fast paced affair. South Dakota plays pretty quick as well, and I don't see them attempting to change the way they play for this game. Both of these teams are playing faster than they did last year, and the two meetings last year finished with 150 points (and bad shooting numbers) and 173 points. I expected the posted total here to be at least 160 points. Plenty of value here on the over. Take the over big! 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* The Siena Saints are a team I like to play the over with. They use full court pressure to speed the game up, and because of that they commit a bunch of fouls. Siena sends opponents to the line more than all about three other teams in the nation. The Saints are also really aggressive on offense, getting to the line at a very high rate. Fairfield has played a lot of teams that play at a slow tempo lately, so their recent games are a bit misleading. Siena should be able to speed this team up. A total set this low isn't hard to reach when both teams are taking a lot of trips to the free throw line. Take the over big! 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Idaho Vandals and Idaho State Bengals meet in a rivalry game in Idaho tonight. Idaho State has played a lot of low scoring games this year, but they haven't played many teams with a defense as bad as Idaho's. The Vandals have increased the tempo in a big way from last season to this season. Idaho shoots it at 40% from long range as well, which means they can really pile up the points quickly. Idaho State's defense has historically been very bad, and I think Idaho will score a lot tonight. Idaho has played in nine games against Division I opponents so far this year and all nine of those games have gone over this posted total. Take the over in this one. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are great at turning a game into a really high scoring affair. Southern Utah pushes the tempo really well. They average about 70 possessions per game, which is four possessions more than the overall NCAA average. They also foul like crazy, sending their opponents to the free throw line at a ridiculously high rate. Their terrible defense can really make the opposing offense look far better than they truly are. Portland State likes to play quickly as well. The Vikings have had some problems scoring this year, but I think Southern Utah's defense will fix those problems. Portland State is great at getting to the line a lot, which is key against a team like Southern Utah that fouls a bunch to start with. 

The over is 6-0 in Southern Utah's last 6 Thursday games. The over is 7-0 in Southern Utah's last 7 following a loss. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in Portland State's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 27-0 angle. Take the over big! 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Northern Iowa Panthers do a really nice job dictating the way the game is played. Northern Iowa slows the game down. Northern Iowa is actually playing at the fourth slowest pace of any team in the nation (351 teams). The Panthers also have a very good defense, so they play in a lot of low scoring games. They have played in three overtime games, which has made their final scores look higher than they should have been otherwise. Evansville hasn't played a defense as good as Northern Iowa yet this year. I think both teams will have to work hard for buckets here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Xavier Musketeers and Georgetown Hoyas have both changed up the way they play this year. Georgetown has typically been a slow it down type of team. The Hoyas have more offensive weapons this year, and that has led them to pick up the tempo and play higher scoring games. Xavier has played relatively quick in the past, but they are playing faster this year and being even more efficient. Neither of these teams have been particularly good on defense this year. The over is 12-3-1 in Georgetown's last 16 road games. I had this number at 144 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Big 10 Total* The Purdue Boilermakers and Minnesota Golden Gophers are two of the fastest paced teams in the Big Ten. Richard Pitino's team has upped the tempo in a big way this year, and they have had a lot of success from it. I don't expect them to go away from that tempo change. Their full court pressure should bother Purdue's young guards. At the same time, Minnesota gives up plenty of easy buckets because of their press as well. The Boilermakers aren't good defensively, and Minnesota's offensive efficiency has been tremendous in recent games. I had this number at 153 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The over is 13-6 in the Toledo Rockets last 19 games. Toledo plays fast no matter who they play against. Duke will be more than happy to play quickly here. The Blue Devils offense is also ranked number one in the nation in offensive efficiency. Duke can pile up the points in a hurry. Toledo's defense hasn't been good in the past few years, and they'll give up a bunch of points here. I think Duke gets to at least 90 points here, and the pace of the game should lead to Toledo scoring plenty too. The Rockets have several good scoring options. I had this number at 152. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Denver Nuggets offense has been off the mark lately. Denver likes to play fast, but their efficiency on the offensive end has been really low in recent games. Since Gallinari went down with an injury, this team lost a key offensive contributor. Toronto is very good offensively, but they have slowed down their tempo since DeRozan went down with an injury. The Raptors are playing the second game of a back to back situation here in the altitude in Denver. Toronto is likely to play even slower tonight than they normally do. Both teams defenses have improved in recent weeks. This total is a few points too high.

The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 playing on 1 day of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 after allowing more than 100 points last game. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 after scoring more than 100 points last game. A 36-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder meet in a key showdown of two of the best teams in the Western Conference tonight. Rajon Rondo brings another element to this Dallas team. While most people are focusing solely on his offense, Rondo improves this team defensively as well. Oklahoma City has been playing some lights out defense in recent games. The Thunder rank fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. While both of these teams are clearly capable of scoring a lot, neither team plays particularly fast and this is a very high total. James Williams is one of the refs in this game, and he has been one of the most consistent under referees in the league. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total Takedown* The Utah Jazz play at the third slowest tempo in the NBA. Philadelphia likes to play fast, but they are playing a possession or so slower than they did earlier this year. The 76ers are the least efficient offense in the NBA, and it's not even close. Quietly though, the 76ers are starting to play good defense. Philadelphia is 12th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and they are in the top 10 for the past month. I believe that gives some value to the under in certain spots for the 76ers, and this is one of those spots. This should be a sloppy game. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Illinois Fighting Illini have beat up on lower opponents this year. Illinois has scored at least 88 points in four games against really bad opponents. I think they get up around that number again against a Kennesaw State team that likes to run and gun. Kennesaw State has allowed 89 points or more against all three top 50 teams they have played this year. Illinois is a top 50 team. The pace should be plenty quick in this one, so unless the shooting numbers are particularly low I see this one going over. I had this total at 144 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers are both offensively challenged this year. Both of them are improved of late on the defensive end though. Both of these teams rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past month. Brooklyn's tempo has slowed drastically with a new coach and a different scheme. Indiana has always been a slow it down type team that plays good defense with Frank Vogel at the helm. There's an angle here that I like quite a bit. The under is a perfect 9-0 in the Nets last 9 games after giving up 100 points or more in their last game. Look for both defenses to clamp down here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Brooklyn Nets have really slowed the tempo down in the last couple weeks. This is a team with a lot of older players, and they have a coach who prefers to play grind it out style games. Without Deron Williams in the lineup, Brooklyn doesn't have a point guard who wants to push the ball. Denver looked totally gassed last night in their big loss at Charlotte, and I can't imagine they'll look much better tonight. Without Gallinari, the Nuggets scoring options are reduced significantly. Two of the three referees assigned to this game are solid under referees. 

The under is 6-0-1 in the Nuggets last 7 after allowing 100 points or more last game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent has scored 100 points or more last game. The under is 5-0 in Brooklyn's last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more last game. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Seton Hall Pirates have a young very talented team that has opened some eyes early this year. The Pirates are playing faster with their improved athleticism this season. Georgia has picked up the pace in a big way from last season. Mark Fox has the Bulldogs trying to get out and run. I feel like this line is set at a level where it should have been if these teams were playing last year rather than this year. Both offenses have gotten better and both teams are playing faster. I had this number at 142.5. The increased pace should make the difference here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Northern Iowa Panthers are great at controlling the tempo. Iowa likes to play fast, but the Hawkeyes have had lots of trouble scoring against top teams this year. It's important to note that this game is being played at a neutral location, which generally lowers scoring totals a bit. Neither team is accustomed to the shooting backdrops, and that can lead to lower shooting percentages. Iowa has gotten much worse on offense this season compared to last year, but they are also playing much better defense this year. Northern Iowa relies on outside shooting, and I think the Hawkeyes will do a nice job of contesting their long range jumpers. I had this total at 127 points. Take the under.  

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Orlando Magic have changed in a big way since they got Nikola Vucevic back in the lineup. The tempo that Orlando plays at drastically slowed down. The Magic defense gets much better with a shot blocker at the back of the defense. Utah plays at the third slowest tempo of anyone in the NBA. Both of these teams rank in the bottom ten teams in the NBA in terms of offensive efficiency as well. Earlier this year, these two played to a final score of 98-93, and that was before Orlando got Vucevic back. The tempo should be even slower here. I had this number at 188 points. The under is 6-1 in the Magic's last 7 games on one day of rest. The under is 24-9 in their last 33 vs. a Western Conference team. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA on TNT Totals MONEY* The Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks meet tonight. Chicago beat New York 104-80 in the first game between these two. The posted total in that game was 184 points, so it finished a push. The posted total here has jumped by 7.5 points. I realize the Bulls are playing faster than they have in the past, but this jump is just too much. New York plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the NBA. Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose are both listed as questionable for this one. Anthony is struggling with a knee injury, and he sounded less than optimistic about his chances of playing tonight. If he doesn't play, the Knicks have some even more severe issues on offense. J.R. Smith won't play here either, and the Knicks certainly aren't filled with scoring options. This seems like a spot where New York could struggle to get past 85 points or so. Rose is less than 100 percent even if he does play, and that should slow the game down a bit. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Portland Trail Blazers have impressed me with their defensive intensity so far this year. Portland primarily won by outscoring their opponent last year, but this season Portland has been very good on the defensive end. Milwaukee is also ranked in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Bucks lost Jabari Parker to a season ending knee injury. This is their first game playing without him, and I think that will change the offense and hurt them until they get accustomed to playing without him. Losing a key player like that can take a few games to adjust to. I made this total 199 points. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Stanford Cardinal have been playing against a lot of teams that like to slow the game down this year. That has made Stanford's pace numbers look a lot slower than they really should be. In general, Stanford is a team that prefers to run if given the opportunity. Loyola Marymount is pushing the pace under their new coach this year, and the Lions defense isn't good at all. This is a good chance for guys like Randle and Nastic to put up some big numbers. I had this number at 141 points. Recency bias from the oddsmakers has given us a nice value here. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total BLOWOUT* The Cincinnati Bearcats have been an under team for a couple years now. Last year, Cincinnati was a team that didn't necessarily stall, but they did have a very bad offense and a great defense. Now, Mick Cronin's team has decided to slow things down a lot so far this year. They are using up the shot clock a lot more this year. San Diego State is the same type of team. The Aztecs aren't good at all offensively, but they are tremendous on the defensive end. San Diego State also uses up the entire shot clock most of the time.

Aqeel Quinn went down with an injury recently, and that made the Aztecs offense much worse. Other than Winston Shepard the Aztecs don't have any good scoring options. If you like offense, I don't think you're going to like this game. Two of the best defensive coaches in college basketball here. The under is a whopping 44-11 in Cincinnati's last 55 games overall. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 Wednesday games. The under is 7-1 in San Diego State's last 8 Wednesday games. A 61-13 trend backing this play. Take the under big! 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Orlando Magic are playing at a much slower pace since Vucevic returned to the lineup. He's a big guy who can score down low as well as protect the basket on defense. It's become apparent that Coach Vaughn has decided the Magic have a better chance of winning by slowing things down now, and so far that has proven to be true. While the Celtics do love to run, both of these teams have been much improved on the defensive end. They both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past two weeks. Neither of these teams is efficient at all on the offensive end. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The Illinois Fighting Illini have made it known so far this year that they aren't afraid of running up the score when they are given the opportunity. Illinois should get that chance tonight against Hampton. Hampton isn't a good team, but they like to run and push the tempo. That plays right into what Illinois wants to do. Against the worst teams they have played so far this year Illinois has put up massive point totals. They scored 114 against Coppin State and 107 against Austin Peay. They scored 89 against Brown and 88 against Indiana State. I think the Illini put up a big number again here and the pace should help Hampton put up plenty to get us to the over. I had this number set at 145 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Marquette Golden Eagles are slowing the tempo down under their new coach. Arizona State is slowing things back down this year as well. In the past few years, the Sun Devils played fast because they had a star in Jahii Carson running the show. Without him at the helm, Coach Sendak has decided to turn the tempo back down again. Both of these defenses will work hard in this one, and I think this should be a close back and forth game where the offenses struggle to get going. Look for this game to stay in the 120's. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Wichita State Shockers play some very good defense. Gregg Marshall's team makes the opposition work extremely hard to get shots, and then the Shockers also do a tremendous job of grabbing the defensive rebound. Alabama has tried to speed up the tempo of the game this year, but the Shockers are generally very good at playing to their pace. Wichita State plays relatively slowly and I think them being the home team here helps them control the tempo. Alabama's offense is unlikely to be efficient against the best defense they have faced all year long. Alabama has typically been a good defensive team as well under Coach Anthony Grant. I made this total 137 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors meet in a battle of two of the best teams in the NBA tonight. I expect both teams to be ready for this one. Memphis has some very good perimeter defenders in Tony Allen and Mike Conley. Look for those guys to make it their mission to make Golden State's stars take tougher shots than normal. Golden State is usually thought of as a very high scoring team that wins with offense. They can definitely score, but their defense has been the reason they are on an amazing win streak. The Warriors are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies are seventh. Memphis will try to slow this game down. A total set this high is generally reserved for two teams looking to push it or two bad defenses. Those things aren't true here.

The last nine meetings between these two teams have finished below this posted total. I look for this to be the 10th. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The North Carolina Tar Heels are very good at imposing their will as far as the pace of the game. UNC Greensboro is going to get demolished on the glass in this one. The Tar Heels have been one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, and offensive putbacks will be huge for them in this game. The Spartans get a rare chance at home to play a big name school from their own state, and they should be hyped up for this one too. I think that leads to them playing pretty quick and likely getting ahead of themselves and turning it over for some easy buckets for the Tar Heels. North Carolina hangs a big number on the Spartans in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Memphis Grizzlies beat the Charlotte Hornets in double overtime on Friday night. I can't imagine they will be too fired up to run up the score as much as they could on the 76ers on Saturday night. Philadelphia is quietly playing a little better of late. What has changed? The 76ers are starting to play much better defense. Philadelphia actually ranks in the top half of the NBA in defense. Memphis ranks in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The 76ers still play relatively fast, but they have slowed down the tempo a bit compared to last year. Memphis is once again one of the slowest paced teams in the league. Some of the 76ers recent games have been very low scoring. This total is a few points too high.

The under is 7-0 in the Grizzlies last 7 games when playing on zero days of rest. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 40% or lower. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA TGIF Play of Day* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been really good on defense all year. Minnesota likes to run, but they are extremely inefficient on offense. I think their offensive woes will be highlighted in this one as Oklahoma City locks things up on the defensive end. Oklahoma City has continued to play at a slower pace even with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook back in the lineup. The three referees in this game definitely lean to the under which is a big help as well. Another interesting note about this game- The posted total here has dropped despite the majority of the public money being on the over. That's a strong signal. The under is 5-0 in OKC's last 5 Friday games. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 following an ATS win. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers are still one of the top ten teams in the league in defensive efficiency. The Clippers are #12 as well, so their defense is better than most realize. Indiana's offense is third worst in the NBA right now, and they don't have much chemistry at all on the offensive end right now. What about the pace of this game? The Clippers average tempo is right at the league average. The Pacers are close to the bottom in terms of tempo. The referees in this one are also helpful. Both Ken Mauer and Haywoode Workman are guys who have consistently been good under referees in the long term. Less fouls in this one could be the difference. The under is 5-1 in the Pacers last 6 home games. This line is a bit inflated. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Ohio State Buckeyes are playing zone on almost every possession this year. Zone defenses slow the game down in a big way. Ohio State shot the lights out early on which caused several of their games to be very high scoring. While I do think Ohio State has a good shooting team, I don't see the Buckeyes continuing to shoot 52% from the floor for the whole season. High Point is a relatively good team despite the fact that most people know nothing about them. High Point prefers to slow the game down, and they'll make this a halfcourt game as much as they can. High Point doesn't have good outside shooters, and I think they'll struggle to score against the Buckeyes zone. I made this total 128 points. I would play this one down to as low as 131 points. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Cleveland Cavaliers have decided to slow things down in recent weeks. They have also started playing some defense. They now rank right in the middle of the pack defensively. Earlier this year they were among the worst in the league on the defensive end. Toronto's offense is good, but they aren't nearly as good as they were before DeRozan went down with an injury. Toronto's pace has slowed down a lot without DeRozan pushing the tempo too. A total set this high is generally saved for teams that push the tempo and play very little defense. That isn't true about either of these teams right now. I had this total set at 201.5. The under is an impressive 8-3 in the Cavs last 11 games. The under is 35-16-1 in the last 52 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Iowa State Cyclones love to push the tempo at every opportunity. UMKC is a team that likes to run as well. Neither one of these teams work very hard on the defensive end. Iowa State is very capable of putting up a big number in this one. UMKC already allowed 81 to South Dakota State and 83 against Kansas State. Neither of those teams are even close to as good offensively as Iowa State. I think there's a good chance the Cyclones get 90 points or more in this one. In fact, they have already scored 90 points or more on three occasions this year. The over is 45-20-1 in the Cyclones last 66 games overall, so the oddsmakers have had trouble catching up with how fast this team plays. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* This game will be played at Madison Square Garden, which is one of the biggest reasons I'm playing the under. The shooting backdrop at MSG is tougher than any other gym that these teams will play at all year. Illinois was scoring loads of points earlier this year, but as they start playing tougher teams their point totals are going down pretty quickly. Villanova has impressed me a lot on the defensive end this year. They'll make Illinois work hard for every shot. The Fighting Illini are much improved on the defensive end compared to last year as well. I had this total set at 133.5 points. There's just enough value here to advocate a play. I've done very well taking unders at MSG in the past, and I'll take the under again here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The SMU Mustangs have always been a relatively slow paced team. They are struggling a little more now on the offensive end because they are without Marcus Kennedy on the inside. Kennedy was the team's best low post scorer. SMU now relies primarily on scoring from the outside. UCSB is a disciplined team under Coach Bob Williams. The Gauchos definitely like to slow the game down and work it inside to Alan Williams in the post. SMU does have some good post defenders, and I expect them to be able to neutralize Williams to some degree. I had this number at 123. 

The under is 4-0 in UCSB's last 4 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The North Carolina Tar Heels love to run, and the oddsmakers like to put high totals on their games. Remember though, this North Carolina team is much better defensively than they are on the offensive end. They have a lot of length and athleticism that cause opponents to shoot a poor percentage, but generally the Tar Heels offensive efficiency isn't that great. East Carolina is a team that likes to stall to try to stay in the game. If the Pirates are wise at all, they will be playing some serious stall ball in this game. With one team playing stall ball and the other team playing good defense, a total of 141 points is too high. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers come into this one on plenty of rest, and I think that means some strong defense from the improving Clippers. Though they started the year slowly, this Clippers team is definitely a really talented bunch. New Orleans limps into this game. The Pelicans miss Eric Gordon in a big way. Without Gordon this offense has scored 91 points or less in four of their last five games. Gordon is a guy who puts up 15 points per game when he is healthy, and that's tough to replace. A total set this high typically needs two high scoring offenses. The Clippers can score in bunches, but the Pelicans offense is weakened significantly of late.

The under is 4-1 in the Pelicans last 5 games since Gordon went down with an injury. The under is also 11-5 in the Clippers last 16 vs. a team with a losing road record. That's important because it means the Clippers often flex their muscle on the defensive end in a game like this. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals MONEY* The Savannah State Tigers don't know any way to play other than running and gunning. This Savannah State team isn't good, but they are going to want to run and push the tempo. That plays right into the Indiana Hoosiers hands. Indiana is always more comfortable running in Tom Crean's system. The Hoosiers have scored at least 81 points in each of their last four games. Against a bad team like Savannah State who plays very little defense, Indiana should get well into the 80's easily, and I think 90 points is fairly likely. The tempo here is the key. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA on TNT MONEY* The Golden State Warriors play very fast. Everyone knows the Warriors play fast. What most people don't know is that the Warriors are number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency right now, and second place isn't even close. Steve Kerr has this team playing some amazing defense. New Orleans has a decent offense, but their offense suffered a big blow when Eric Gordon went down with an injury. Their offensive efficiency has been much worse with him out of the lineup. I don't think the Pelicans get very many easy looks tonight. New Orleans will look to slow the game down too, which should help this one. 

The under is 4-0 in the Pelicans last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Warriors last 4 Thursday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 4-0 in the Warriors last 4 home games overall. The under is also 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins have shown us that they are going to play as fast as possible this year. All but one of their games so far this year has played out to a tempo of 71 possessions per team or more. That's extremely fast compared to the average in college basketball which is about 67 possessions. UCLA played games at a pace of 78 and 82 earlier this year against poor opponents who like to run. They have another poor opponent in Cal State Fullerton who likes to run. The Titans defense is really bad, and I think UCLA will be able to get good looks all game long. UCLA's interior defense has been poor, and Fullerton has some guys who can get to the rim. Look for a fast paced high scoring game. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Washington State Cougars are a totally different team this year. Ernie Kent took over the team in the offseason, and he wants this team to run all the time. Washington State has generally been a defensive oriented team that slows it down, so the oddsmakers are slow to adjust lines with this Cougars team. Idaho has sped up the tempo a lot in the past couple years as well. The Vandals defense is atrocious (they allowed 83 points last game against Northern Kentucky). Washington State isn't a whole lot better on defense. A fast pace and two bad defenses. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Virginia Cavaliers and Maryland Terrapins were used to meeting each other in conference games, but now they'll be meeting each other in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Maryland is without leading scorer Dez Wells in this one, and that's important because they are playing against a Virginia team that locks it up on the defensive end. The Cavs defense is always one of the best in the country. Virginia is playing even slower tempo wise than they did last year, and they have had some extremely low scoring games so far this year. They haven't allowed more than 56 points in a game all year long. Maryland is slowing things down this year compared to last season as well. I had this one at 116 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a double overtime win. I had them as my play of the week in that game, and they did end up getting there. There's no doubt they put in some extra effort in that game though, and there were a lot of tired Mavericks at the end of that game. Dallas has the most efficient offense in the NBA, but I see them being a little less efficient on tired legs tonight. Milwaukee is 7th in the NBA in total defense, and Jason Kidd's team has been working hard on the defensive end. Neither of these teams play all that fast, so a total of 207 is awfully high. With two teams in the top half of the NBA in total defense and some tired legs, I think this stays under the posted total. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Purdue Boilermakers have a new identity. Matt Painter's teams were previously known for slowing the game down and playing great defense. Now, the Boilermakers are all about running and getting off a bunch of shots. Purdue has had some very high scoring games this year, including some high scoring games against teams who usually play in low scoring contests. The NC State Wolfpack also like to play fast, so I see no reason that this game won't be played at a quick tempo. The over is 4-1 in Purdue's last 5 home games. The over is 5-1 in NC State's last 6 road games. I had this number at 145 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Nets/Knicks Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks offense has been awful of late. New York also plays at the single slowest tempo of any team in the NBA. Brooklyn started out playing fast, but the Nets have slowed down a lot of late. Brooklyn can't play terribly fast because of Brook Lopez. Lopez is one of the reasons Brooklyn is always solid on the defensive end. J.R. Smith is likely to miss this one with an illness, and the Knicks have a hard time scoring to start with. These two teams definitely see this as a real rivalry, and that generally leads to lower scoring games with better defense. The line movement here kept this one from being a top rated play, but my number was 186. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Los Angeles Lakers defense is awful, so taking an under with them is always risky, but the Lakers have showed signs of slowing the game down a bit of late. A total of 206 in a game where one team (Detroit) plays at a very slow pace is definitely worth a look. Detroit hasn't had a game go above 202 in their last nine games. The Pistons are playing improved defense under Stan Van Gundy, but they are a real mess on the offensive end. I had this number at 201 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* This is a really high posted total, but it's really high for a reason. Iona and Arkansas both rank in the top 11 out of 351 college basketball teams in terms of pace. This game should be an all out track meet. Both teams are shooting above 45% on the year thus far from beyond the arc. Both teams use a full court press to push the tempo. Neither one of these teams are very good defensively in the halfcourt either. I made this total 174, so I see enough value to play this one. Take the over.