Sports Picks & Predictions

Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-13-20	Maryland-Baltimore County v. Coppin State OVER 144		66-49	Loss	-110	11 h 7 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Coppin State Eagles play at an extremely fast pace. Juan Dixon's team ranks 4th in the nation in overall tempo so far this year. They are averaging 77 possessions per contest. UMBC decided before the season that they wanted to play much quicker than a year ago. Coach Ryan Odom thought it would help the offense be more efficient and have more constant motion. So far he has been right. UMBC is shooting the ball much better from the floor so far this season. These two teams have played each of the last three seasons. The final totals in those games have been 155, 131, and 163 points. UMBC is playing significantly faster than they were in any of those seasons. Coppin State doesn't shoot the ball well, but they have faced a lot of defenses that are significantly better than UMBC as well. Take the over here.
12-13-20	Air Force v. Drake UNDER 130.5		53-81	Loss	-110	10 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play Under I'm going to keep playing Air Force unders unless I think their opposition is a great over team. Joe Scott's Air Force team is going to rank in the bottom five in the nation in tempo this year. They will run the Princeton offense and use up the clock every time down the floor. Drake is capable of high or low scoring games. I do think Drake is likely to win this game, but they have shown in the past that they are willing to slow the pace down when they are ahead in the second half. Take the under here.
12-12-20	NC-Wilmington v. Ole Miss OVER 139		58-78	Loss	-109	15 h 54 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The UNC Wilmington Seahawks are going to play faster under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. He learned under Kevin Keatts, and he is running the same system Keatts ran here. UNC Wilmington is aggressive taking the ball to the basket and getting to the line a lot. They will have a tough matchup here against Ole Miss and a good interior defense, but since they are likely to be playing from behind I expect the tempo to be very quick from them. Also, I think Wilmington is likely to press at least some in this game. Ole Miss will use their 1-3-1 zone to force turnovers this year, and they are going to look to score in transition off those turnovers. They had 75 points with 8 minutes left against Jackson State before letting off the gas to be as classy as possible. UNC Wilmington is a couple notches better than Jackson State, but the Seahawks will likely give up some easy transition buckets here. Both teams are teams I would project to be good at getting to the line, and with a lower total like this I think that can be really important. Take the over.
12-12-20	Dayton v. Mississippi State UNDER 135		85-82	Loss	-110	19 h 10 m	Show
4 Star CBB Early Bird Special The Dayton Flyers lost Obi Toppin from last year's team. Dayton is still a very good team, but the Flyers aren't even close to as efficient as last year. Dayton has struggled to score at times so far this year. Dayton has scored 66, 64, and 66 points in their games against Eastern Illinois, SMU, and Northern Kentucky. None of those teams are great on defense. Mississippi State lost their top two offensive players from last year. The Bulldogs always play slowly and they are doing that again this year. This season they will be unable to shoot the ball at the same clip they did a year ago. On the other hand, they do have a couple very good shot blockers in the paint. This game is played at a neutral site, and early games played on a neutral court have been good under bets in the last decade. Take the under here.
12-12-20	Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Texas Tech UNDER 131		57-77	Loss	-110	19 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Texas Tech ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. That should be no big surprise since Chris Beard's teams are always excellent on the defensive end. Texas Tech has only allowed 46, 40, and 44 points in their last three games. Texas A&M Corpus Christi isn't going to score many points here. The Islanders play at a slow pace and they struggle badly with turnovers. There will be a bunch of wasted possessions for them. Texas Tech is 99th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Red Raiders offense is pretty good, but they also turn it over too much. This is a team that is comfortable playing at a slow pace as well. Take the under here.
12-11-20	Marquette v. UCLA UNDER 140.5		60-69	Win	100	28 h 51 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Mick Cronin's teams are always strong on the defensive end. The Bruins will be good on that end again this year. So far this season UCLA has been good on offense as well, but they have played some very weak defenses. The Bruins are now up against a Marquette team that ranks 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Marquette isn't the same team without Markus Howard. Howard was a shot maker and a guy that got to the line a lot and knocked down a ton of shots from the charity stripe. Their offensive efficiency will be far lower this season. Last year Marquette was 60th in tempo, and so far this year they are much slower 141st in the country. UCLA ranks in the bottom 20% of teams in the country in terms of tempo. Look for a tight lower scoring game here. Take the under.
12-11-20	Nevada v. Grand Canyon UNDER 140		77-87	Loss	-110	20 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Grand Canyon Antelopes have a new head coach in Bryce Drew this year. Drew has always had his teams play slower than average. Grand Canyon has started out this year playing at a very slow pace against Grambling and Mississippi Valley State (it is hard to slow a game down against these guys). Nevada lost a ton of offense from last year's team. The Wolf Pack no longer have a go to guy on offense, and their backcourt is a big question mark. While they are clearly weaker on offense, I like Nevada's length in the frontcourt and how it could lead to opponents having a tougher time getting to the rim against this team. Nevada and Grand Canyon have both played some games that have been very low scoring on relative basis compared to last year. Based on both of these teams being high flying teams in recent seasons, I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted this total down enough. Take the under.
12-09-20	Boise State v. BYU UNDER 143.5		74-70	Loss	-110	20 h 45 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The BYU Cougars are a much different team than they were a year ago. They have far less offensive weapons, but they are clearly better on defense. BYU now has a big man in the middle of the paint with length that can deter drivers from getting to the hoop. Matt Haarms is somewhat limited on offense, but he should be pretty good for this BYU team. BYU has played five Division One teams this year, and four of them rank in the top 100 in the nation in tempo. The Cougars have still played four of those five games under this total (highest score was only 147). I think the oddsmakers are having a hard time adjusting BYU totals down enough for their new roster. Boise State's Marcus Shaver is banged up and will likely be less than 100% here. The Broncos have a good defensive team who can go through slumps on offense at times because they don't move enough. BYU is good at forcing a lot of midrange jumpers which isn't ideal for Boise State's offensive identity. Take the under here.
12-09-20	Oklahoma v. Xavier OVER 146		77-99	Win	100	20 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Xavier Musketeers are playing significantly faster on offense this year. Travis Steele has his team spreading out on the floor and looking to use a euro style to get space and create open looks for their improved shooters on the perimeter. Oklahoma always wants to run under Coach Kruger. The Sooners have seen 171 and 160 points scored in their first two games. Their offense starts with Austin Reaves, and I don't think Xavier has anyone who matches up well defending him. I expect lots of chances in transition for both teams. These two teams are going to be very good in transition this season. Expect a close game all the way, and overtime or a foul fest is certainly a possibility with the way this game would project. Take the over.
12-09-20	Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Arkansas State OVER 135.5		75-74	Win	100	18 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Arkansas State Red Wolves host the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions on Wednesday night. Arkansas State has played a very tough schedule of defenses so far, and that has made their offensive numbers very ugly. That should change here. Arkansas State has had 23.7% of their shots blocked so far this year. That can't continue. They saw less than 6% of their shots blocked a year ago, and an average number is in the 9-10% range. A key to this handicap for me is both teams getting to the free throw line a lot. Pine Bluff has ranked in the bottom 15 in the country at defending without fouling the last five years in a row. Arkansas State has ranked in the bottom 25 in that same stat in the last two years. Both of these teams have ranked very highly at getting to the charity stripe. They are both aggressive at taking it to the basket. Look for a lot of trips to the line in this game. Pine Bluff has allowed 80 points or more in every game this year. I think Arkansas State can get there or get very close. Take the over here.
12-08-20	Bryant v. St Francis NY OVER 148.5		101-82	Win	100	16 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Bryant Bulldogs have had a drastic change in pace so far this year. Bryant averaged 17.2 seconds per possession last year, but so far this year they are at a blistering face pace of only 12.8 seconds per possession. That is the second fastest pace in the country so far this year. Bryant has played three games. Two of them have been against Division I schools (Syracuse and New Hampshire). Those two games had a pace of 86 and 82 possessions. Their game against Rhode Island College finished 138-93 (97 possessions). After that game Jared Grasso, head coach at Bryant, said he was very happy with the pace his team played at in that contest. St. Francis and Bryant played one of their two games last season over this number, and that was with Bryant playing significantly slower. The opening total has been bet up some here, but I don't think it has been bet up enough considering the tempo change. St. Francis has been a slightly faster than average paced team on the whole in the last three seasons. Take the over here.
12-07-20	Hampton v. Norfolk State UNDER 147		64-76	Win	100	18 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Hampton Pirates lost their two stars from last year. Jermaine Marrow graduated and Ben Stanley transferred to Xavier. Those two guys averaged 24.8 ppg and 22.0 ppg last season. They also lost their fourth leading scorer in Greg Heckstall. Before the season, Hampton Coach Edward Joyner Jr. said he wanted to change the tempo of his team this year. He said the strength of the team is inside and they need to run more halfcourt sets. Hampton ranked 56th in the nation in tempo last year, but they will be slower this season. They also are very likely to be far less efficient on offense. Norfolk State is usually the best or second best defense in the MEAC. Norfolk State isn't very good offensively, but they can force teams into a lot of bad looks and turnovers. Last year, Norfolk State played 11 games against Division I opponents in the non-conference schedule at the beginning of the year. All 11 of those games stayed under this total. One of those games was against Hampton (who was without Marrow as they will be again here) and the final was just 64-53. I would expect Hampton to be a little better on defense and worse on offense this year. Norfolk State is a very similar team to a year ago. This total is set at too high of a number. Take the under.
12-07-20	George Washington v. Maryland-Baltimore County OVER 145.5		81-92	Win	100	4 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UMBC Retrievers want to play with a lot more pace this year. Coach Ryan Odom said he believes the uptick in tempo this season will help with their offensive efficiency. The team has spent every bit of time they had prior to the season getting ready for their new faster style of play. George Washington is playing much faster as well. Jamion Christian says he now has the personnel to play faster and shoot a lot more 3's than they did a year ago. George Washington ranks as the 17th fastest in average possession length so far this year. Their games have finished with 149, 160, and 154 points. I expect to see a fast pace in this game, and the number hasn't been adjusted enough. Take the over.
12-05-20	South Carolina v. Houston UNDER 140		67-77	Loss	-110	24 h 48 m	Show
4 Star Play Under These two teams met last year and the final total was 132 points. Houston is playing much slower so far this season, and I think they will try to turn this into a halfcourt contest. South Carolina is once again a very scrappy team who will be excellent on the defensive end. The Gamecocks are likely to struggle on offense though. They only scores 62 on Liberty and 69 on Tulsa. Houston is a better defense than either of those teams. This game is totaled as an average scoring game in college hoops. I think these defenses are too good for that number. Take the under.
12-05-20	Lamar v. Air Force UNDER 133		44-59	Win	100	22 h 42 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Air Force has played at the single slowest pace of any team in the country so far this year. Joe Scott has made it known that he wants this team to run the Princeton offense and move extremely slowly this season. They have done exactly that thus far. Their first two games finished with 127 points (against a very fast paced team) and 108 points. Lamar is averaging only 58.3 points per game this year. They scored only 45 against Houston and 57 against Tulane. The Cardinals move a little faster than an average offense, but they are very inefficient. The books are having a hard time catching up to Air Force's change of pace. Unless they shoot really well here, I don't think they can get to this number. Take the under.
12-05-20	Eastern Washington v. Arizona OVER 145		67-70	Loss	-110	15 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Eastern Washington is all about running and gunning on offense. This team ranked 19th in overall tempo in the country last year. What has Sean Miller talked about a bunch in the offseason? That he wants his team to play faster. Here is their chance. Arizona did shoot the ball quickly on their possessions against Grambling, but they weren't very efficient. I think the fact that the Grambling game was awfully low scoring for the tempo makes this total a good value. Eastern Washington has several scorers, but they can't play any defense. Arizona should be able to put up a big number on them. Take the over here.
12-04-20	Oregon v. Seton Hall UNDER 143		83-70	Loss	-110	27 h 47 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Oregon Ducks didn't look very good in their loss to Missouri a couple days ago, but Missouri has more talent than most realize. Also, Missouri has decided to pick up their tempo a lot this season. The Tigers put up 83 points on what should be a good Oregon defense. Seton Hall is a good defensive team under Kevin Willard. The Pirates play at an average tempo, and their guards aren't very good in transition offense. This game is played on a neutral court in Omaha. These neutral court games have been great under bets in the long run, and I think Oregon's first game being so high scoring has given us good line value on this contest. Take the under.
12-03-20	Washington v. Utah UNDER 136		62-76	Loss	-115	16 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Washington Huskies offense wasn't good last year. Now, they are without their three best offensive options from a year ago. Jaden McDaniels and Isiah Stewart are in the NBA. Nahziah Carter is suspended right now. Washington has looked awful on the offensive end in their first couple games. They were non-competitive in a 86-52 loss to a great Baylor team in game one. The real concerning one for Washington fans was their 57-42 loss at home to UC Riverside. These two teams have met five times since Mike Hopkins took over at Washington and they started running the matchup zone defense. Utah and Washington have combined to score 132, 128, 122, 107, and 133 points in those five matchups. Utah has consistently been in the bottom 30% of the country in terms of tempo. I don't expect that to change this year. The Utes don't have much height on the perimeter and that long matchup zone of Washington has really given them trouble. Look for Utah's defense to be able to keep the weak Washington offense in check, and the matchup zone is likely still a problem for Utah. Take the under.
12-02-20	Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 139		55-59	Win	100	22 h 31 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Oregon State Beavers offense won't be as efficient this year without Tres Tinkle. He was the go to guy nearly all the time for this team the last few years. They played a bit slower in their first contest this year, and I would expect them to be a slow tempo team this season. They have more length this year though, and I think they could be better on the defensive end. Washington State has looked very good on defense in their first two games. The Cougars held Texas Southern (a pretty good SWAC offense) to only 52 points. They also held an Eastern Washington good offense to 68 points in game two. The Cougars prefer to play slowly, and this is their first opponent who will be happy to play slowly along with them. Based on the projected pace and the shooting numbers necessary to get this past this total, I think this number is too high. Take the under.
12-02-20	Drexel v. Quinnipiac UNDER 146.5		66-48	Win	100	18 h 27 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Drexel Dragons and Quinnipiac Bobcats meet on a neutral floor (Mohegan Sun) on Wednesday night. Drexel and Quinnipiac are fairly similar teams to last year. Drexel is playing a bit slower than a year ago, but they have been slightly more efficient on offense (just one game). Quinnipiac has the same nucleus and same coach and I expect a similar style of play as last year for them as well. These two teams met last year on a neutral floor and the final score was 72-63. The tempo was just 65 possessions so it was a slow paced game. Neutral courts are good for the under and that has already shown itself this season. This number has been set awfully high. I have this number several points lower. Take the under.
11-30-20	Eastern Kentucky v. Xavier OVER 144.5		96-99	Win	100	16 h 56 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Travis Steele said before the season that he wanted his team to go with a motion offense that led to them playing at a faster pace this year. Through three games, they have definitely played quicker. They averaged using 17.7 seconds of the shot clock last year and they are using only 16.3 seconds of the shot clock so far this year. Steele really thinks he has a much better outside shooting team this year as well. Eastern Kentucky likes to press as much as possible and push the pace of the game. They have a lot of trouble on the defensive glass too, and Xavier should get a lot of second chance opportunities. Eastern Kentucky's games typically have a lot of trips to the charity stripe. This is a great opportunity for Xavier to work their motion offense and spread the floor and look for quicker shots. Take the over.
11-30-20	Indiana v. Providence OVER 140		79-58	Loss	-108	11 h 49 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Archie Miller said he has been wanting to play with faster tempo since he has been at Indiana, but this is the first time he has had the right guys to be able to do it. In their first game, Indiana used up only 13.4 seconds of the shot clock on average. The Hoosiers were playing far faster than they did last year. His players have said from practices that they are excited and that "people will be surprised at how fast we play." Providence played quick in their first game against Fairfield (a team who likes to slow the game down). Ed Cooley's teams can be a bit hard to figure out as far as their preferred pace, but I think their aggression on defense is likely to get Indiana to the line quite a bit here. On the other side, Providence is great on the offensive glass which should get them good second chance opportunities. Take the over.
11-29-20	Alabama A&M v. Samford OVER 144	Top	78-76	Win	100	14 h 18 m	Show
5 Star CBB Hidden GEM TOP Play The Samford Bulldogs have a new coach in Bucky McMillan. McMillan has stated in the preseason that he wants his team to win games that are "played in the 90's." He wants to use full court pressure all game long and sub in and out guys a bunch to stay fresh. It was a game against a Division III opponent, but Samford's exhibition win over Greenville University was one of the craziest box scores you will ever see. Samford won that game 174-99. Yes, you read that right.. they scored 174 points. Also, the pace of the game was unreal. The game paced out to 116 possessions. An average game is 66 or 67 possessions. A very fast paced game is 85 or 90 possessions. I don't think we should assume Samford will be able to get Alabama A&M to play that quickly, but I do think Alabama A&M will have trouble with the press. Alabama A&M has finished two of the last three seasons in the bottom 40 in the country in turnover percentage on offense. Samford will turn them over and get easy scores. Samford is the favorite here for a reason, and with them likely ahead in this one it should make Alabama A&M not be able to stall as often. Samford's players and coaches are all talking the talk about playing extremely fast and they looked like they are backing it up in that exhibition. If they are- this total is clearly too low. Take the over. TOP Rated Play.
11-28-20	Loyola Marymount v. Minnesota OVER 143	Top	73-88	Win	100	17 h 22 m	Show
5 Star TOP Total of the WEEK The Loyola Marymount Lions are playing a completely different way this year. Stan Johnson was a Marquette assistant and he took over the head coaching job at Loyola Marymount this year after the team let Mike Dunlap go at the end of last year. Johnson wants the team to play quicker, and they definitely did that in game one against Southern Utah. There were 74 possessions in that first game. That's a fast paced game, and it is something Loyola Marymount didn't do at all last year under Dunlap. All season long last season not a single game against a Division I opponent was played that fast. Minnesota was absolutely flying up and down the court against Wisconsin Green Bay in game one. They shot the ball on average only 12.5 seconds into the clock. The Golden Gophers put up 99 points despite going only 7/34 from the 3 point line. Loyola Marymount ranked 15th in shot quality last year, but was only 112th in effective field goal percentage shooting. They have enough solid shooters on their team that they should improve their efficiency on offense. Minnesota's Marcus Carr is going to be a very tough guard for Loyola Marymount. Adding Liam Robbins down low and Both Gach on the perimeter gives Minnesota more scoring options than last year. Take the over. TOP Rated Play.
11-28-20	CS-Northridge v. Air Force UNDER 149		61-66	Win	100	15 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Joe Scott's Denver Pioneers were a great under team. I expect Air Force to slow things down drastically this year from the past few seasons. Dave Phillipovich had the team playing at an average pace, and that simply isn't going to happen under Scott. It remains to be seen how good the Air Force defense will be (likely not very good), but a game with a total set this high with a team stalling the way Scott's teams always did at Denver is a must bet to the under for me. CS Northridge lost their top two players from last year. This is a team that doesn't have a great identity on either end of the floor right now. I expect a slower pace here and I like the value here. Take the under.
11-28-20	Southeastern Louisiana v. UAB OVER 143		59-84	Push	0	14 h 58 m	Show
4 Star Play Over SE Louisiana went a shockingly bad 1/28 from 3 point range in their season opener. That's really hard to do. SE Louisiana pushes the pace in a big way, and UAB will be more than happy to play fast under new coach Andy Kennedy. Can SE Louisiana knock down more shots here? They aren't likely to be great shooting as a team this year, but they are due for positive regression after a 1/28 performance. Kennedy's teams ranked in the top 75 or so in the country in tempo every year when he was on the sidelines in the past. UAB does have good shooters around the perimeter and several slashers that can get to the bucket. SE Louisiana's defense takes all kinds of risks with the full court press and the team gives up a lot of open close shots. Their opponents also get to the line a lot. Expect this to be a big problem against this UAB offense. My tempo projections here point to this total being closer to 150. Take the over.
11-27-20	NC-Wilmington v. North Carolina-Asheville OVER 149		76-68	Loss	-110	18 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UNC Asheville Bulldogs ranked 350th out of 353 teams in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense last year. Their interior defense was as bad as anyone in the country. UNC Asheville pushes the pace and tries to get steals and transition baskets, but their opposition gets a ton of easy looks in the paint and a lot of trips to the free throw line. UNC Wilmington is picking up their pace a lot under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. He worked under Kevin Keatts and Keatts' system is a very fast paced one where the team tries to attack the rim and get to the basket a lot. There shouldn't be anyone looking to slow the pace down in this game. This total is set a few points lower than it should have been considering the tempo here. Take the over.
11-25-20	Southern Utah v. Loyola Marymount OVER 140		83-85	Win	100	18 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Loyola Marymount Lions have a new coach this year. Mike Dunlap is gone and so is his very slow paced style. Stan Johnson was an assistant at Marquette, where they played a very fast paced style year after year. Johnson has already said they are committed to speeding things up this season. The Southern Utah Thunderbirds went out and got some junior college guys who can shoot from long range in the offseason. Todd Simon's team should be much better on offense than they were a year ago. Simon also said in the offseason that they'll play faster. Simon said "I think we'll play faster- we've always been up-tempo, but we'll kick it up a notch this year." The oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough based on the two teams both picking up the pace here. Take the over.
11-25-20	Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Illinois UNDER 133		65-61	Win	100	25 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Luke Yaklich is an amazing defensive mind. He made the Illinois State Redbirds a great defensive end in his time with the team. After he left the team's defensive numbers have gone down every year. When Yaklich showed up at Michigan as a defensive assistant the team was #68 in defensive efficiency. They were #3 and #2 in the next two years. Texas also got better under him last year. Yaklich is preaching contesting jumpers and getting on the defensive glass to this UIC team. I expect them to be a good defensive team. Northern Illinois struggled a lot with offensive efficiency last year. They don't have any new weapons that would make me expect them to improve on that end. This team doesn't get to the line much either. They are solid on defense and are very good defensive rebounders. I expect a low scoring contest here. Take the under.
11-25-20	Western Carolina v. NC-Wilmington OVER 148		98-76	Win	100	23 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UNC Wilmington Seahawks should play a lot quicker under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. UNC Wilmington didn't really have an identity last season. That will change this year. They will use full court pressure and try to get to the basket and get to the free throw line as much as possible on offense. Siddle was an assistant under Kevin Keatts, and his teams always rank in the top 50 in the nation in tempo. Western Carolina has an underrated star in Mason Faulkner running the offense. The Catamounts were 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They also prefer to play at a quick pace, so I don't see them slowing this one down. If the shooting numbers are terribly low this could stay under, but with normalized shooting numbers and the pace I'm expecting- I have to bet the over (my number here was 152.5) Take the over.
11-25-20	Old Dominion v. Maryland UNDER 132.5		67-85	Loss	-110	11 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Maryland lost all sorts of star power from a year ago. They had the talent to make noise in March last year, but the season was shut down. Maryland now must rely on their defense this season. The Terrapins won't be able to crash the offensive boards and get a bunch of second chance points. Old Dominion is great on the defensive glass. The Monarchs are always amazing at turning games into a rock fight. Their five non conference games against top 100 teams last year all finished at 129 points or lower. Old Dominion is short on offensive firepower. The pace of this game will be very slow. Both teams here settle for a lot of mid range jumpers that aren't very good looks. Take the under.
10-11-20	Lakers v. Heat UNDER 216.5		106-93	Win	100	43 h 17 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Los Angeles Lakers missed a chance to finish off the Miami Heat in Game 5 on Friday night. The Lakers also failed to win that game despite some red hot shooting from beyond the arc from LeBron James. James is only a mediocre 3 point shooter (he's great at everything else), but he was 6/9 from long range on Friday night. The Lakers were shooting 56% from the floor in the middle of the third quarter in game five. The game did slow down and it narrowly edged over the total because of 17 points in the last 1:52 of the contest in Game 5. Miami and Los Angeles combined to average 1.17 points per possession in Game 5, which is far above their season averages. Both teams shot the ball really well from the floor. The teams also combined to shoot a sizzling 91% from the free throw line. The 39 points from the charity stripe were key in sending the game just over the posted total. The under has been great bet in the long run in close out games in the NBA playoffs. The pace tends to slow and the defenses lock in even more. The average pace in games 4 and 5 has been 92.75 possessions. If game 6 has 93 possessions, the teams could average 1.16 and 1.15 points per possession and it still stays under this total. For the season as a whole, both of these teams averaged a tick under 1.12 points per possession. Since there is so much on the line and the shooting numbers were clearly above average in Game 5, I'm going to side with the under here in Game 6. If both teams shoot the lights out it will lose, but history is on our side and the line value is there. Take the under.
10-09-20	Heat v. Lakers UNDER 217		111-108	Loss	-107	67 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Los Angeles Lakers now lead the Miami Heat 3-1 in this series. The Lakers were much better defensively in game four. They were able to take away Butler's looks in the paint. Look for that to be a strategy that continues into this game to try to pack the paint as much as possible and force Butler to be a passer more often than not. Miami's defense is significantly better with Bam Adebayo on the floor. He is a good shot blocker near the rim. He also helps a lot on the defensive glass. Without him, the Lakers were crushing the Heat on the offensive boards. Adebayo isn't 100 percent, but him being on the floor is a positive for the under. The average tempo of the last three games in this series is 94 possessions. Closeout games often see a slow pace (especially if they are a tight game). If we see 94 possessions here, both teams could average 1.15 points per possession from the floor (very efficient on offense) and this one would fall just below 217 points. I think the tempo points this one to an under without a ref show or some ridiculous 3 point shooting. Those are always possible, but there is an edge here with the under with the projected pace and the Heat with their top defensive player again. Take the under.
10-04-20	Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219		104-115	Push	0	18 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Los Angeles Lakers beat the Miami Heat 124-114 in Game 2. The fact that last game was so high scoring creates an opportunity for us to get a much higher posted total for this contest. The shooting numbers last game were extremely high. These teams aren't likely to shoot it as well as they did in game 2. The Lakers put up a ridiculous 1.348 points per possession. Miami put up 1.253 points per possession on Friday night. The overall playoff averages are 1.168 for the Lakers and 1.133 for the Heat. The pace was actually much slower in game two than in game one. Miami is shorthanded here, and that could certainly make their defense a bit worse, but the Lakers scoring 1.348 points per possession against this scrappy Heat defense shouldn't be expected again. Additionally, the Lakers players said at length on Saturday that the team had talked about their disappointment with their defense in their game 2 win, and that would be an area of focus on Sunday. This is the highest posted total for any matchup between these two teams this year. Take the under.
09-15-20	Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 208		104-89	Win	100	19 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets are in a game seven on Tuesday night. It makes little sense that this series has gotten to a 7th game. The Clippers were in full control here and simply let this series get away from them. Game 7's have been money to the under this postseason thus far (3-0 to the under). They haven't been even close. This number has been adjusted down, so I won't make this a large play, but things tend to change quite a bit in a game 7. This is a win or go home game. There is a lot of pressure on both teams. The tempo slows down. The shooting percentages on the whole over time are lower as well in these spots. In this series already, the tempo has gradually slowed down from the first three games to the last three games. The Clippers are capable of locking down on defense when they are focused, and I would think we get a very focused Clippers defense here. The Nuggets will be looking to slow the pace of this game down. Take the under here.
09-10-20	Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 220.5		110-100	Win	100	19 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers have played a very competitive series thus far. It really stands out to me that this series has been played at such a slow tempo compared to what we might have expected. The pace has gotten slower in each game in this series thus far. Overall for the series, the average number of possessions is at only 95. In the last two games combined, the average pace is 93.75 possessions. Last game alone, the pace was 91.5 possessions. The Lakers won last game by locking things down defensively in the second half. Los Angeles is likely to show up with strong defense from the start in this one. Houston is a better defensive team this year than many realize as well. Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3 pointers. These teams are 7th and 8th in the NBA at defending beyond the arc, so there aren't as many easy looks from long range as normal when these two meet. If the game is played at 95 possessions (the series average), the average points per possession would have to exceed 1.16 points per possession to get past this posted total. With the stars on these two teams it is certainly possible, but this line is several points too high. Take the under.
09-02-20	Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 219		102-104	Win	100	22 h 3 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder square off in game 7 on Wednesday night. Oklahoma City changed the way this series has gone by playing Lu Dort more often. Dort is a really good defender, and he's really bad offensively. He makes his opponent work very hard to get good looks. At the same time, teams will cheat off him on the other end. Houston has shown a long history of struggling in close out games under Mike D'Antoni and with James Harden on the floor. These games are lined high for a reason- clearly the Rockets can score in bunches and could light it up from long range, but they are up against an OKC team that ranked 3rd in the NBA in 3 point field goal percentage allowed. In Houston's last 28 playoff games that are game #5 through game #7 in the series- 22 of those games have gone under the total and 6 have gone over the total. There have been quite a few poor shooting contests in those, and the tempo has generally been slower. Oklahoma City can get bogged down on offense too much. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been disappointing on the offensive end down the stretch for the Thunder. We've seen in the playoffs that the later in the series it has gotten the referees have let them play more often. That would be a big benefit to the under in this one. Take the under here. Sharp money is moving this line down- I would play this down to 216.5. My number here was 214. Thanks and good luck.
09-01-20	Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 219		78-80	Win	100	29 h 50 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I don't really want to have to play this game since I just lost the under in game six due to some unreal shooting by Murray and Mitchell and the teams overall, but I have to in this spot. This is a spot where I have made a lot of money through the years. Game 7- everything on the line for both teams. There is a lot of pressure on each side, and the pace usually slows down a bit. On average, the shooting percentages are usually a little lower as well. In the first six games of this series- the average pace has been 93.5 possessions per game. That is the slowest pace of any playoff series so far. Both teams have just been shooting lights out. These teams both averaged 1.12 points per possession in the regular season. They are averaging 1.25 points per possession and 1.21 points per possession in this series. In game six, they combined to shoot 36/72 from 3 point range. If the teams just shot their season average (1.12)- this total would come in around 209. If both teams shoot lights out again we'll lose this play, but there are too many long term systems and angles pointing toward an under here for me to pass it up. Look for both defenses to look a little better and the pace to be slow here. Take the under. My projection here was 213.5- so I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 217.5 and a 3 star rating at anything lower than that. Thanks and good luck.
08-30-20	Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 220		119-107	Loss	-110	18 h 43 m	Show
3 Star NBA Jazz/Nuggets CASH The Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets play in a huge game six battle on Sunday night. The Jazz have been automatic on offense for most of this series. How good have they been? Utah is averaging a whopping 1.274 points per possession in this series. In their three regular season games against Denver, they averaged 1.051 points per possession. The pace in this series has been very slow, but the shooting numbers have been so high it hasn't mattered. Denver did switch their defense to a more aggressive defense where they fight through screens in the second half of game five. That was their best defensive half yet against the Jazz pick and roll offense. This game is the biggest game of the season for both teams. We should get a lot of effort on defense from both teams. This total is the second highest total for a game played between these two in the last nine meetings. Closeout games typically have lower posted totals. Last game went over the total thanks to 10 points in the final 23 seconds of the game including a long banked in 3 by Mitchell which made Utah keep fouling and extending the game. The teams both hit 16 three pointers in that contest and it should have stayed under the total. If the shooters cool off at all or the defense picks up some, this is a lot of points for the pace this game will be played at. Take the under.
08-29-20	Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 227.5		80-114	Win	100	16 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets meet in a pivotal game five matchup on Saturday evening. The Houston Rockets love to shoot 3 pointers. Houston is up against an OKC team that was third in the NBA in 3 point defense. The Thunder are making them shoot difficult shots in this series. Russell Westbrook will play for the first time in this series. Westbrook does give Houston another scoring option here, and that is why the total is up several points. At the same time, Westbrook grades as one of the better defenders for the Rockets and that is being overlooked. Both of these teams last played on Monday and that is generally a good thing for the under with a long layoff. This total is set at the same number as the first couple meetings in the regular season between these two teams. This game means a lot more than those games did and on the whole that is beneficial to the under. Take the under here.
08-24-20	Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 220		114-117	Loss	-110	14 h 16 m	Show
3 Star NBA Play of the Day The Oklahoma City Thunder got Luguentz Dort back before game two, and with Dort back in the lineup they have been able to put together a much better defensive plan against this Houston Rockets offense. With Dort as the primary defender, James Harden was 3/14 in game three. Dort rates out as the Thunder's best defensive player and their worst offensive player in the last couple games. He'll get a lot of minutes here because of how good he has done on Harden. Minutes for Dort are a positive for the under. Clearly, Harden could have a big game at any point, but Dort is at least making him work very hard. The average pace of 98.58 possessions in this series is pretty slow. It would take some very efficient offense to get above this total if the pace stays the same here. The last two games have finished at 209 points and then 208 points in regulation. I see this total as being inflated. Take the under.
08-19-20	Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 217.5		124-105	Loss	-105	13 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Denver Nuggets ranked as the second slowest paced team in the regular season. Denver slows things down and grinds the game into a half court contest. Utah ranked 24th in the NBA in tempo as well, so they prefer to play slowly. In game one between these two, the pace was only 96.45 possessions. Both teams shot the ball extremely well. Mitchell absolutely went off for the Jazz. The Nuggets backups shot the ball very well. There are a bunch of key offensive players out for both teams here. For the Jazz- Conley and Bogdonavic are key pieces. For the Nuggets- Harris and Barton are both important pieces. In the regular season these teams met three times. None of those three meetings saw a regulation score finishing higher than 210 points. The total here has been adjusted upward by 3 points from game one. The Nuggets shot 54% from long range in game one and Mitchell had 57 points for the Jazz in game one. I'll bet on regression to the mean. Take the under.
08-19-20	Nets v. Raptors UNDER 226.5		99-104	Win	100	10 h 27 m	Show
4 Star NBA Early Bird Special The Toronto Raptors won 134-110 over the Brooklyn Nets in game one of the series. That has led this total to jump all the way to 226.5. A five point adjustment is really extreme. Toronto averaged 1.327 points per possession in game one. Brooklyn averaged 1.078 points per possession. These two teams met four times in the regular season. The highest posted total was 224.5 (the others were all 218.5 or lower). In the four regular season meetings the Raptors averaged 1.089 points per possession while the Nets averaged 1.047 points per possession. Three of the four games went under this total and two of them went under by a large amount. The Raptors are elite on defense. The Nets aren't terrible on defense either, and they should do a better job guarding Fred Van Vleet in this one. Toronto made 22/44 from 3 point range in game one. The fact they got ahead by so much early in the game made the overall pace of the game speed up. This is a big adjustment and I have to bet the under here. Playoff games mean a lot to professionals and I would expect stronger efforts on defense. Take the under.
08-09-20	Grizzlies v. Raptors UNDER 222		99-108	Win	100	12 h 48 m	Show
3 Star NBA Early Bird Special The Memphis Grizzlies have a lot to play for right now. There are a bunch of teams in the bubble right now that really have no reason to care much whether they win or lose. Memphis is not one of those teams. The Toronto Raptors defense has been number one in the NBA in their last four games. Toronto's help side defense and awareness on defense is unmatched in the NBA. I would think they would be up for this one since they were torched by the Celtics in their last game. Memphis is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last four games The Grizzlies have some key pieces missing on offense too, so they have been inefficient offensively. The intensity should be high enough here and both teams will work hard on defense. Take the under.
08-06-20	Pacers v. Suns OVER 229.5		99-114	Loss	-108	15 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Indiana Pacers coaching staff talked about their want to play at a quicker tempo without Domantas Sabonis (out with an injury). They have done that in their first few games in the restart. This is a different team than we saw earlier this year. T.J. Warren is thriving in this faster pace offense, and Warren has a chance to light up his old team here. He should have a big game. Phoenix is playing among the fastest teams in the league. The Suns have been shooting the ball really well of late, and Ayton has been playing well on the inside. Devin Booker is a star and the offensive pieces around him are better than many believe. In the last three games, these teams rank 4th and 8th in offensive efficiency in the NBA. The pace will be there, and both of these teams are capable of hitting 120 here. I think this total should get to at least the mid 230's. Take the over.
08-03-20	Lakers v. Jazz UNDER 219		116-108	Loss	-110	20 h 5 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION The Utah Jazz offense has been a mess in the first couple games in the NBA restart. That was against a terrible New Orleans defense and a decent Oklahoma City defense. Now, they have to play a Lakers team that ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Jazz are doing too much one on one offense and not moving the ball. The first two games between these teams were totaled at 216.5 and 212.5. The games finished with 181 points and 217 points. This total has been adjusted upward quite a bit. These are two top ten defenses. The under is 11-5 in the Lakers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under here.
07-31-20	Rockets v. Mavs OVER 229		153-149	Win	100	18 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets have played twice this year. The first game was a 137-123 contest. The second meeting was a 128-121 final. The posted total in the first game was 230 points. The posted total in the second game was 237-238 points depending on the sportsbook. Here, we have a total of 8 or 9 points lower than that despite the fact that both games sailed over the posted total. This is a neutral court and that accounts for a move down in the total to a degree, but it can't be adjusted by 8 or 9 points. These are the top two efficiency offenses in the NBA. The two teams both rank just below average in defensive efficiency. Both teams have shot the ball pretty well in their exhibition games here at Disney. The Rockets make a living at the line as well. I don't generally like to bet many overs on neutral courts, but this is a huge adjustment. The sharp money is on the over here, and I agree. Take the over.
03-11-20	UTEP v. Marshall UNDER 145		78-86	Loss	-110	8 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UTEP Miners rank 80th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Marshall ranks 100th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The two teams are 276th and 211th in offensive efficiency. These two teams met once during the regular season and the final was 71-61. Marshall is a very fast paced team, but they aren't efficient on offense this year like they were a year ago with Jon Elmore leading the way. This Thundering Herd team has a lot of length on the inside and they have multiple shot blockers. UTEP played games far under this total during the regular season. In UTEP's last 12 games of the season, only one game went over 136 points. This is played at Frisco Texas in the football practice facility. The under is 14-8 in games played here. Take the under.
03-11-20	Georgia v. Ole Miss UNDER 145.5		81-63	Win	100	25 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The under is 46-37 in the last 83 games played at Bridgestone Arena. This is a hockey arena (Nashville Predators) and the shooting backdrop is a difficult one. These are two teams who are accustomed to playing in big arenas, but I don't think there will be many people at this game. A big venue with a small amount of people at the game tilts things toward the under in the long run. Ole Miss is third in the SEC in defensive efficiency. The Rebels have turned the ball over quite a bit on offense this season. Georgia plays quickly, but they have had major turnover problems on offense. The Bulldogs are too reliant on one player. In the regular season these two teams met and the final was 70-60. This game means more to both teams in the one and done tournament format. Take the under.
03-11-20	Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion UNDER 132.5	Top	66-56	Win	100	28 h 10 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Under The Old Dominion Monarchs are a defensive-minded team. They are third in Conference USA in defensive efficiency. They also rank 12th in CUSA in tempo, so they want to slow the game down as much as possible. The under is 14-8 in the games played at Ford Center at the Star in Frisco. This is a strange setup where multiple games are going on at once in a football practice facility. I think this is likely going to continue to be helpful for the under. Old Dominion has played five games at Frisco in the last two years. Not a single game of Old Dominion's has finished higher than 120 total points. Florida Atlantic is much better on defense than offense. Though they prefer to play quickly, they have had some very low scoring games this year. I think this line is several points too high. Take the under. Note- this line has moved some since I initially played this on Tuesday afternoon. I would play this for 5 stars down to 130. This would be a 4 star play for me at 129.5 or lower. Thank you
03-11-20	Idaho State v. Northern Arizona UNDER 144.5		64-62	Win	100	26 h 12 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks and Idaho State Bengals square off at Century Link Arena in Boise on Wednesday afternoon. Century Link has been a good under venue and these two teams are both questionable on offense. This is an early game during the week at a venue far bigger than these kids are accustomed to playing in. Neutral site games have been good to under bettors especially in smaller conferences when they play in a bigger venue. There won't be many people at this game, and it creates a strange environment. These teams aren't very good, and seeing a sloppy game here should come as no surprise. One thing both teams have done this year is defend without fouling, so I'll hope to avoid a ref show in this one. Take the under.
03-11-20	Idaho v. Southern Utah UNDER 136.5		69-75	Loss	-110	24 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Idaho is a weak team and they are a big underdog here for a reason. Southern Utah has the best defense in the Big Sky. The Thunderbirds have been able to lock down on that end a lot this year. In games with bigger spreads at a neutral site, the under has been a good play in the long run. This game is at Century Link Arena. This has been a good under venue and these two teams are both questionable on offense. This is an early game during the week at a venue far bigger than these kids are accustomed to playing in. Neutral site games have been good to under bettors especially in smaller conferences when they play in a bigger venue. There won't be many people at this game, and it creates a strange environment. Take the under here.
03-10-20	North Dakota v. North Dakota State UNDER 141		53-89	Loss	-109	8 h 3 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This is the Summit League final. This tournament has been great to under bettors, and I'm going to take the under again here. This is a big venue where the shooting backdrop is difficult. Additionally, this game is for a trip to the NCAA Tournament. When there is more on the line in the final game of these tournaments, in the long run it has been very helpful to the under. Both of these teams are great at holding the opposition to one shot, and neither of these teams have gotten to the free throw line much this season. Take the under.
03-09-20	Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State UNDER 150		69-75	Win	100	8 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The North Dakota State Bison rank first in the Summit League in defensive efficiency. It's no secret that this league is offensive minded on the whole, but in the Summit League Conference Tournament the under has done really well in recent years. This tournament is held at Denny Sanford Premier Center. This has been a good under venue. It is larger than most of these teams are accustomed to playing in. Additionally, these games clearly mean more to the teams than their regular season games have. That typically means the game slows down a bit and the defenses work a little harder. Both games in the regular season between these two teams went narrowly over this posted total. In both of those games both teams shot the ball well. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the shooting percentages tick down a bit in a game of this magnitude. The winner of this game will play tomorrow night for a NCAA Tournament spot. Take the under.
03-08-20	North Dakota v. South Dakota UNDER 154.5		74-71	Win	100	18 h 16 m	Show
4 Star Play Under This is a Summit League tournament contest at Denny Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls. This is a gym that has proven very good to under bettors in recent years. The Summit League has a lot of high scoring contests in the regular season because the teams shoot a high percentage and don't play much defense. That creates inflated numbers in the conference tournament and most teams are going to put in more effort on defense in a win or go home scenario. The first two meetings between these two were comfortably under this number. I like the under again here. North Dakota needs to slow the game down and I think they'll do it here. Take the under.
03-08-20	Pacers v. Mavs UNDER 218		112-109	Loss	-110	5 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Dallas Mavericks are banged up right now. Kristaps Porzingis is listed as questionable here. Seth Curry is out of the lineup. Tim Hardaway Jr. is listed as doubtful. Luka Doncic is playing through a minor injury. The Indiana Pacers are injured even more badly. Malcolm Brogdon is out with a significant injury. Victor Oladipo is questionable as he edges back onto the floor. Doug McDermott is doubtful with an injury. Jeremy Lamb is out for the season with an injury. Sunday's have been the best day for unders in the NBA in the past decade, and it isn't even close. Today, things are even a bit more unique from a scheduling standpoint since the clocks moved forward. The under is 39-19-1 in the Pacers last 59 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under.
03-08-20	Nebraska-Omaha v. Oral Roberts UNDER 157		52-79	Win	100	16 h 46 m	Show
4 Star Play Under This is a Summit League tournament contest at Denny Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls. This is a gym that has proven very good to under bettors in recent years. The Summit League has a lot of high scoring contests in the regular season because the teams shoot a high percentage and don't play much defense. That creates inflated numbers in the conference tournament and most teams are going to put in more effort on defense in a win or go home scenario. Omaha has slowed their pace down this year. The two regular season meetings between these two teams were 138 and 141 points. This game means more and we are in a venue that is favorable to the under. Take the under.
03-08-20	Thunder v. Celtics UNDER 219		105-104	Win	100	4 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Late in the regular season in the NBA, taking the under when two good teams play each other has been a strong angle. Both of these teams have been very good this year. Everyone knew the Celtics would be very good. The Thunder have been better than anyone could have imagined. Sunday's have been the best day for unders in the NBA in the past decade, and it isn't even close. Today, things are even a bit more unique from a scheduling standpoint since the clocks moved forward. The under is 42-17-1 in the Thunder's last 60 games as an underdog. They have tended to slow the pace when playing against a stronger team. The under is also 22-10 in the Celtics last 32 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. Take the under.
03-08-20	Connecticut v. Tulane OVER 141		80-76	Win	100	13 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Over This is the final game of the regular season for both of these teams. They don't have anything important to play for. These late season regular season games between two mediocre teams have trended strongly toward the over in the past. The Huskies have been playing noticeably quicker in recent games, and Tulane is doing more trapping and forcing steals and trying to score in the open floor. Both teams have been very aggressive on the offensive glass, and the AAC refs have a quick whistle. I see a lot of free throw attempts in this contest. Take the over.
03-08-20	Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 247		120-107	Win	100	12 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Am I excited to bet an under between these two teams? Of course not. I'll do it in this situation and at this price point though. Minnesota and New Orleans play an early afternoon game on Sunday after the clocks move forward on Saturday night. Sunday afternoon unders have been very good in the long run in the NBA, and that has been especially true in the Western Conference. In this spot, the teams got an hour less rest and have their body clock thrown off even more than normal. This is one of the highest totals you will ever see in the NBA. If you get one below average scoring quarter here it should keep the game under the posted total. Take the under.
03-08-20	Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 225.5		112-103	Win	100	12 h 7 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Clippers and Lakers is a great showdown on Sunday afternoon in LA. Sunday afternoon unders have been very good in the long run in the NBA, and that has been especially true in the Western Conference. In this spot, the teams got an hour less rest and have their body clock thrown off even more than normal. This is a 12:30 local start time after a short night. Both of these teams have been excellent on defense in recent contests. I think they'll both be plenty motivated for this high profile showdown on Sunday afternoon. Effort shouldn't be lacking on the defensive end. Take the under.
03-08-20	Memphis v. Houston UNDER 134.5		57-64	Win	100	8 h 6 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Both of these teams are excellent defensively. While Memphis has serious turnover problems on offense, the Tigers are 1st in effective field goal percentage defense this year. They are 154th in effective field goal percentage offense. Houston ranks 5th in effective field goal percentage defense on the year. The Cougars rank 230th in effective field goal percentage offense. The shots in this game should be contested very well. Neither of these teams let their opponents near the hoop much at all. This is an important game for both teams and I'll look for a strong defensive effort in an early Sunday afternoon contest. Take the under.
03-07-20	IUPU Ft Wayne v. South Dakota State UNDER 140.5		77-74	Loss	-105	20 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Fort Wayne Mastodons are one of the rare teams in the Summit League that is very weak on the offensive end and pretty good on the defensive end. Fort Wayne averaged only 0.969 points per possession in the conference this season. They were the third best defense in the Summit League. South Dakota State slowed their pace down as the season moved along. The Jackrabbits are clearly the better team here, but they are happy to get a lead and keep the pace slower. The two regular season meetings stayed under this posted total. This game is played at a venue where the under is 33-23 in the last 56 games played here. I think this game is several points too high. Take the under.
03-07-20	SMU v. South Florida OVER 129		60-61	Loss	-109	17 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The SMU Mustangs and USF Bulls play in a meaningless final regular season game on Saturday evening. These two played a 82-64 game on January 1st. SMU ranks first in the American Athletic Conference in offensive efficiency. The Mustangs are a really good offensive team with Kendric Davis on the floor. SMU is able to get to the basket often, and USF doesn't have much shot blocking ability. USF gets quite a few points from steals quick transition opportunities. SMU is susceptible to this, and I think that shows up in a game like this one. USF is drawing fouls at a very high rate on their home floor. This is a low number for a final regular season contest. Take the over.
03-07-20	Marshall v. Texas-San Antonio OVER 160		82-77	Loss	-105	16 h 8 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The UTSA Roadrunners and Marshall Thundering Herd play on Saturday afternoon. Both of these teams are extremely fast paced teams who want a track meet whenever they can get it. The first game between these two was a track meet, but the shooting numbers were horrendous. In fact, UTSA won despite shooting 6/28 from 3 point range. Marshall was a putrid 3/26 from 3 point range. This is the final game of the regular season for both teams and these games have trended toward the over in the past decade. Look for more of the shots to fall on Saturday. Take the over.
03-07-20	UCLA v. USC UNDER 134		52-54	Win	100	14 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans play in a very important rivalry game on Saturday afternoon. Both teams have been playing great basketball of late. Both teams are likely in the field right now. As of a month ago, neither of these teams would have been in the NCAA Tournament. UCLA slows the game down and they are turning into a normal Mick Cronin team who really defends well and scraps. USC has been mixing up their defenses, and Andy Enfield's team is really playing well on the defensive end. The Trojans should be able to bother the Bruins and contest their jumpers. Two motivated teams in their final regular season game of the year. Take the under.
03-07-20	Kentucky v. Florida UNDER 137		71-70	Loss	-110	13 h 9 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Florida Gators have slowed their pace down in their last five contests. They haven't played a single game in that stretch to anything faster than 65 possessions. Florida scored only 59 points at Kentucky in their recent meeting, and the Gators put up only 58 against Tennessee. Kentucky isn't quite as dominant on defense as they have been in some recent seasons, but they still have the #2 ranked defense in the SEC. The Wildcats are playing at a slightly slower than average tempo. Florida is a good team, but they have been disappointing on the whole this year. They need a big win. Kentucky and Florida don't like each other and I see another strong defensive game that is played in the halfcourt. Take the under.
03-06-20	Bucks v. Lakers UNDER 228		103-113	Win	100	21 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Milwaukee has been the best defense in the league all year, and it hasn't been close. The Bucks have played their best defense of the season in the last few weeks though. They are dominating on that end of the floor. Milwaukee is giving up only 0.984 points per possession in their last 10 games. That's first in the NBA by a wide margin. Who is second in defensive efficiency in that same period? The Lakers. The Lakers are allowing 1.042 points per possession during that time. The Lakers are 12th in offensive efficiency during that time. The Bucks are 21st on offense in those games. This is a late season NBA game between two very good teams, and I think both teams will show up a bit more motivated than in a normal contest. On the whole that is a good thing for the under. It should be a really good one here. Take the under.
03-06-20	Missouri State v. Indiana State UNDER 136.5		78-51	Win	100	11 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This one is played at Enterprise Center where unders have completely dominated in general. This is a hockey arena with bad sight lines for shooters. Of course there will be individual games where teams shoot well, but on the whole this is clearly a great venue for unders. The under is 52-26 at this venue when the total is 124.5 or higher. Indiana State is good at controlling the pace. The Sycamores are 313th in average possession length in the country. Missouri State has sped up this year, but Indiana State did a nice job slowing them down in both regular season meetings. Both teams have a FTA/FGA of less than 30% so a foul fest doesn't look likely unless we get a ref show. Take the under.
03-06-20	Loyola Marymount v. San Francisco UNDER 131		53-82	Loss	-105	11 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The San Francisco Dons and Loyola Marymount Lions just played a game to 136 points where both teams shot the ball far better than normal. Now they go play on a neutral court in a win or go home scenario. I think the defenses will be better and the pace will stay very slow. San Francisco has gradually slowed their tempo throughout the year, and Marymount is one of the 10 slowest paced teams in the country. The first meeting between these two was 61-53 and played to a pace of just 57 possessions. Take the under.
03-06-20	The Citadel v. Wofford UNDER 147.5		76-93	Loss	-110	18 h 51 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Citadel has been a bit of a different team than they were in past seasons. The Citadel still plays very quickly, but they have been far less efficient on offense this season. They are 313th in offensive efficiency last year. They were 134th last season. Wofford rated 4th in the Southern Conference in defensive efficiency. Wofford also ranked ninth in overall tempo. They'll work to slow this game down. This is a neutral site game and it is the first game of the conference tournament for both of these teams. Neutral site games with a favorite of 6 points or more and a total of 131.5 or higher have gone 56.9% to the under since 2005. I'll look for Wofford to get a lead here and keep things under control. Take the under.
03-06-20	Valparaiso v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 132.5		74-73	Loss	-109	9 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This one is played at Enterprise Center where unders have completely dominated in general. This is a hockey arena with bad sight lines for shooters. Of course there will be individual games where teams shoot well, but on the whole this is clearly a great venue for unders. The under is 52-26 at this venue when the total is 124.5 or higher. Loyola is a defense first team, and Valpo is a poor shooting team who struggles to get to the free throw line. Valpo struggled badly shooting it last night against lowly Evansville, and now they must play the best defense in the conference. Take the under.
03-06-20	Southern Illinois v. Bradley UNDER 127		59-64	Win	100	22 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament has seen a bunch of very low scoring games over the last few years. Enterprise Center is arguably the best under gym in the country. These teams aren't accustomed to playing in such a big venue. Bradley has been good on offense down the stretch, but the Braves were inconsistent away from home on offense. Southern Illinois works very hard to slow the game down. This is an afternoon tip time during the week and it is both teams first game at Arch Madness in St. Louis. Look for a slow pace here. Take the under.
03-05-20	Northern Arizona v. Portland State OVER 154		66-80	Loss	-109	20 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Over In Portland State's last 13 games, the over has cashed on this number (154) 10 times. The under has cashed only twice. There was one tie. Portland State has sped up their tempo as the season has gone on, and their offense has become much more efficient. Portland State has scored 87 points or more in four straight games. The Vikings have only scored less than 81 points once in their last nine games. Northern Arizona's offense is much more efficient this year than it was last year. The last 3 meetings between these two teams have finished with 157, 197, and 166 total points. This is a late season regular game in the Big Sky Conference, where very little defense is played. Both teams should get a lot of second chance points here too. Take the over.
03-05-20	Wichita State v. Memphis UNDER 138.5		60-68	Win	100	19 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Memphis Tigers host the Wichita State Shockers in a game between two teams who are on the bubble. Both teams need this game. Late in the regular season I like to look for games between two teams who have a lot to play for if I am taking unders. That is the case in this game. Memphis is 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Wichita State is 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. These teams are 216th and 120th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Both of these teams do a good job protecting the basket. Neither team has been particularly good at shooting the 3 point shot either. I expect some solid defense to be played here. Take the under.
03-05-20	Illinois State v. Drake UNDER 135.5		65-75	Loss	-110	17 h 59 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The first game of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is this one. Enterprise Center hosts this tournament and it is a great under venue. Drake and Illinois State played two very different games against each other this year. The first game was a 84-74 high scoring contest. The second game was recently and it was a low scoring 57-53 game. In the second game, Illinois State played zone most of the game. Drake struggled badly with that zone defense. While I'm not sure Illinois State will play zone all the time here, they would be crazy not to play zone at least part of the contest. Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3 pointers. With a tough shooting backdrop and in a one and done game, I have to take my chances here. Could they shoot lights out? Of course. The past numbers of this arena though show that taking an under like this is a long term + expected value proposition. Take the under.
03-04-20	Morehead State v. Tennessee State UNDER 138		67-74	Loss	-105	26 h 21 m	Show
4 Star Play Under This is a first round game in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. This is played at a neutral site. Neutral site games definitely lean toward the under and with this game meaning so much to both teams the tempo should be a bit slower than their average games. The two regular season meetings between these two finished at 112 points and 129 points. Both games were played at a pretty slow pace. Both of these teams are playing slightly slower than they did a year ago, and both teams are better on defense than a year ago. In the last four meetings between these two teams, there hasn't been a game that has finished above 135 points. Now, they are playing a game that means a lot more to both teams than a regular season contest does. Take the under.
03-04-20	Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 222.5		100-119	Win	100	4 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Milwaukee Bucks have been flexing their muscles defensively of late. They have been the best defense in the NBA all year, but they have been playing their best on that end of the floor in the last few weeks. In the last 12 games, Milwaukee is allowing only 0.979 points per possession. The second best defense in the NBA during that time (Lakers) is allowing 1.054 points per possession. The Bucks are dominating with defense. Indiana ranks 9th in defensive efficiency during that time frame as well. These two teams rank 25th and 26th in offensive efficiency during that time frame. Victor Oladipo is questionable tonight and if he plays he'll clearly be less than 100%. The under is 31-12 in the Pacers last 43 road games against a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
03-03-20	Cincinnati v. South Florida UNDER 128		79-67	Loss	-105	17 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under USF has been a really good under team this year. In AAC play, the under is 11-5 on this very low number in USF contests. The under is actually 8-8 on this number in Cincinnati games as well. The Bearcats are right on the bubble and clearly have a lot to play for in this contest. USF has allowed 62 points or less in regulation in five straight home contests. The Bulls defense has been strong all year. Cincinnati has been good defensively of late. The Bearcats rank 25th in the nation in effective field goal percentage on the year. Both of these teams have had trouble with turnovers this year. I would expect a lot of wasted possessions and sloppy play here. Take the under.
03-02-20	Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Jackson State UNDER 122.5		56-76	Loss	-110	13 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions offense ranks 353rd in efficiency out of 353 teams in the country. They have been an under machine. Pine Bluff has failed to score more than 54 points in seven of their last nine games. Jackson State is 331st in offensive efficiency in the country, so they aren't very good on that end of the floor either. The two teams are 200th and 199th in defensive efficiency so they are much more respectable on the defensive end. The first game between these two was 49-45. This will likely be higher than that game, but this number has been bet up so much that I have to take the under. Take the under here.
03-01-20	76ers v. Clippers UNDER 219		130-136	Loss	-110	13 h 17 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Philadelphia 76ers are badly banged up right now. The 76ers have been playing a slower pace without Ben Simmons. They rank 28th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last three contests. Philadelphia is clearly not the same team on the offensive end without Simmons and Embiid. The Los Angeles Clippers have a rare early start time. This has been great for under bettors in general in Western Conference games, and in Clippers games it has been a particularly strong angle. The under is 30-15 in the last 45 Clippers home games with a total of 190 or higher that starts at 5 pm EST or earlier. This is a contest between two quality teams. The under is 9-1 in the 76ers last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. The 76ers offense has really struggled against good defenses, and the Clippers have a lot of talent on the defensive end. Take the under here.
03-01-20	Cincinnati v. Houston UNDER 136		55-68	Win	100	11 h 39 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Late in the season when two good teams meet with a lot at stake, the under is the way I have to lean to begin with. In this case, there is a lot on the line. Cincinnati is a bubble team and this is a huge game for them. Houston wants revenge after they blew a late lead at Cincinnati in the meeting earlier this year. Additionally, both of these teams have four losses in the American Athletic Conference, and they are tied in the loss column with Tulsa at the top of the league. This game will go a long way toward deciding who wins the AAC regular season title. Houston has been great on defense of late. They have consistently had very low scoring games. The Cougars have had only one game go over this total in regulation in their last 13 games. That one game (Tulane) went over the total by one point. 11 of the 13 games have been 128 points or less in regulation. Look for solid defense here. Take the under.
02-29-20	Michigan State v. Maryland UNDER 138		78-66	Loss	-109	17 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Michigan State Spartans and Maryland Terrapins meet in a huge game for both teams. Michigan State still has an outside chance of winning the Big Ten, but they absolutely have to win this game. Maryland has been great of late, and the Terrapins have been most impressive on the defensive end. The first meeting between these two teams saw a game with only 64 possessions. The final in that one was 67-60. Late season games between two very good teams have been strong to the under in the past 10-15 years. This is angle that has been very profitable for me, and it fits this game nicely. Look for plenty of effort on defense here. Take the under.
02-29-20	San Francisco v. Loyola Marymount UNDER 131		69-67	Loss	-110	17 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Loyola Marymount is using 21.1 seconds on an average possession. That is some next level stalling. Their games have consistently been very low scoring. After starting the season really pushing the pace, San Francisco has slowed down quite a bit in recent weeks. The Dons let Loyola Marymount control the pace in the first meeting. It was a crawling speed of 57 possessions and finished 61-53. I don't see this pace being much faster. San Francisco has been elite in the league in 2 point defense. The way to beat them is making shots from outside. That isn't Loyola Marymount's game though. Look for a low scoring game with a very slow pace. Take the under.
02-29-20	Wyoming v. Fresno State OVER 129		55-63	Loss	-115	16 h 3 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Wyoming has drastically increased their tempo in the last seven contests. They were stalling for a long time throughout the season, but they have nothing to lose now and are pushing the pace much more. Wyoming has played all 7 of their last 7 games to a pace of 70 possessions. That really stands out when you realize that this team was averaging about 64 possessions per game before this recent stretch. Fresno State and Wyoming have little to play for here, and that generally leads to less defense and a quicker pace. Wyoming hasn't had a game go under this number in their last seven games. Fresno State has seen 10 straight games get over this total. Take the over.
02-29-20	BYU v. Pepperdine OVER 155		81-64	Loss	-109	14 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The first game between these two was 107-80. Pepperdine's transition defense is weak and BYU can take advantage. Pepperdine also struggles defending the 3 ball, and no one in the country is better from long range than BYU. Pepperdine likes to push the pace, and BYU has sped up their tempo as the season has moved along. There's no reason to expect anything other than a track meet here. This number has dropped to a level where I have to play the over in this contest. Take the over.
02-29-20	Western Illinois v. Denver OVER 154		63-69	Loss	-109	18 h 15 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Western Illinois Leathernecks (great name) have allowed 85 points or more in four straight games. They have allowed 83 points or more in 7 of their last 10 contests. Western Illinois is 348th out of 353 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They are allowing a ridiculous 1.158 points per possession in Summit League play. Denver is first in the league in tempo. The Pioneers are giving up 1.099 points per possession in league play too, so these are two bad defenses. These two teams rank first and third in the league in overall tempo. This game means nothing to this teams. Both teams have been terrible all year (both 2-13 in the league). These late season games between two bad teams have been good for over bettors in the long term. The first meeting between these two finished with 166 points. Take the over.
02-29-20	North Alabama v. Florida Gulf Coast OVER 126.5	Top	78-73	Win	100	11 h 38 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Over This is the final regular season for both of these teams. North Alabama has picked up their tempo considerably late in the season. North Alabama is first in the Atlantic Sun in average possession length. As quick as they have been playing this is a very low total. North Alabama has been over this total in 9 of their last 10 games. The first game between these two teams was played at a fast paced 71 possessions. This is a questionable motivation game for both teams. That is a clear positive for the over. I had this game several points higher than this number. Take the over. I would play this for 5 stars up to 129 and for 4 stars above that
02-27-20	Pacific v. Loyola Marymount UNDER 123		60-53	Win	100	19 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The final score in the last three meetings between these two teams are as follows: 60-42, 63-56, and 62-50. All three of those games were played at a pace of 59 possessions or fewer. That's about as slow as you'll ever see. I don't see any reason to expect anything different here. Loyola Marymount has slowed things down to a crawl in recent weeks. They are using 21.4 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. Pacific's defensive improvement this year is drastic. The Tigers were 320th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 117th this year. Look for a low scoring contest. Take the under.
02-27-20	Portland State v. Idaho State OVER 152		89-76	Win	100	18 h 22 m	Show
4 Star Play Over These two teams rank near the top of the list in second chance point opportunities, and both of these defenses rank near the bottom of second chance opportunities allowed. If we go back and look at the first meeting between these two one thing really stands out. Idaho State had 21 offensive rebounds. Portland State had 19 offensive rebounds. That's about as many offensive rebounds in one game as you will ever see. Portland State presses and looks to get quick points off their steals from pressure, and Idaho State turns the ball over a lot. Portland State has been able to dictate tempo very well of late. Portland State has scored 81 points or more in six of their last seven contests overall. Take the over here.
02-27-20	St. Peter's v. Niagara UNDER 133		54-63	Win	100	16 h 22 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The first meeting between these two teams played to an extremely slow pace of just 61 possessions. The final score was 58-53. This one likely won't be that low, but I do think this total is set too high. St. Peter's is tied at the top of the MAAC, and they certainly should be ready to go in this one. The Peacocks defense is the main reason they are at the top of the standings. St. Peter's has allowed just 54 points per game in their last three games. St. Peter's turns the ball over too much on offense to be all that efficient. Niagara doesn't generate hardly any second chance points. Take the under here.
02-26-20	Arkansas State v. UL - Lafayette OVER 149.5		74-77	Win	100	18 h 13 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns were without both Mylik Wilson and Trajan Wesley for a significant amount of time this year. In their games without these guys they clearly slowed the pace down because they were shorthanded. Since the Ragin' Cajuns have gotten healthier they are back to playing at a very fast pace. Louisiana has played six straight games to a pace of 70 possessions or quicker. Their last five games have finished with 153 points or more. Arkansas State is great at getting to the line. The Red Wolves rank first in the country in FTA/FGA. Arkansas State ranks last in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. Arkansas State has seen 159 points or more in three of their last six games. I'll look for the recent trend of Louisiana high scoring games to continue here. Take the over.
02-26-20	Rhode Island v. Fordham UNDER 123.5		76-75	Loss	-109	17 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This is a low total, but it is low for a reason. Fordham has seen 10 of their 14 games in the conference stay under this number. They are the worst offense in the Atlantic 10 by a mile. Fordham is averaging only 0.821 points per possession. The Rams are using 20.1 seconds of the shot clock on average. They are the slowest paced team in the Atlantic 10. Rhode Island is first in the A 10 in defensive efficiency. They have held several teams to below 0.8 points per possession already this year. The Rams are capable of holding Fordham to a very low number here. Rhode Island plays St. Louis and Dayton in their next two after this one. They may have less incentive to keep their foot on the gas late in this contest. Take the under.
02-23-20	Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 222.5		112-114	Loss	-105	3 h 51 m	Show
3 Star NBA Early Bird Special The Boston Celtics will be without Kemba Walker for this game. Walker is clearly a key to the offense. He averages 22 points and 5 assists per game. This is a very early start time for a game in Calfornia. This one starts at 12:30 pm local time. There aren't many games that start at this time for the Lakers, and the long term trend is that the under has done really well in these games. The under is 43-21-1 in the Lakers last 65 home games in general. These two teams have both been above average on defense this year, and they play at a pace right around the league average. Take the under.
02-23-20	Siena v. Fairfield UNDER 128		62-59	Win	100	11 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Fairfield Stags play at the slowest pace of any team in the MAAC, and it isn't even close. Fairfield plays two possessions per game slower than anyone else in the league. They are using more than 20 seconds of the shot clock on an average possession. Fairfield is averaging a terrible 0.891 points per possession in MAAC play. This is a team who turns it over a lot and shoots the ball poorly. Siena was playing pretty quick earlier this year, but they are down to 9th out of 11 teams in the MAAC in tempo. The Saints have given up 49 and 52 points in two of their last four games. This team has been getting better defensively. They are about to play a really weak Fairfield offense. The first game between these two finished at 114 points. The shooting numbers were just a tick lower than average. Even if you normalize the shooting numbers, you'd come up with a number in the low 120's. Fairfield has had 7 of their last 8 games stay under this total. In fact, those 7 games have all finished at 121 points or less. Take the under.
02-22-20	Oregon v. Arizona UNDER 141		73-72	Loss	-110	20 h 27 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Oregon Ducks and Arizona Wildcats square off in a game that could decide the Pac 12. Both of these teams have proven they have a high upside. Still, neither team has been all that consistent. Oregon has been slowing the tempo down in recent weeks. The Ducks have been far less efficient shooting the ball in their last few contests as well. Pritchard is having to do too much. Arizona is a good defensive team, and they have played to the pace of their opponent of late. In the first game between these two, the score was 66-66 before going into overtime. This is a late season game between two very good teams who have a lot to play for. I tend to lean under in those spots, and here I think the under is a good value. Take the under.
02-22-20	Georgia State v. Texas State UNDER 144.5		76-86	Loss	-110	16 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Texas State Bobcats didn't play up to expectations earlier this year. Why? Their defense wasn't as good as normal. They have fixed that problem quite nicely in recent weeks. Texas State has allowed 66 points or less in 12 straight games though, and they are elite at forcing turnovers. Georgia State is a good team, but turnovers is a relative weakness for them. Georgia State is first in the Sun Belt in effective field goal percentage defense. Texas State is first in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. Texas State let Georgia State get their preferred tempo too much in the first game. Look for the Bobcats to fight harder to slow this game down. They are at home and are favored here. Both of these teams still have a chance to win the Sun Belt, so this is a very important contest for both teams. Take the under.
02-22-20	Houston v. Memphis UNDER 139		59-60	Win	100	13 h 56 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Houston Cougars defense has been elite in recent weeks. This has been a great under team of late. How good? All 12 of Houston's last 12 games have stayed under this posted total. While Memphis does like to push the pace, they aren't efficient on offense, and they are very solid on defense. Houston has slowed their tempo down a great deal in conference play. They are using 19.1 seconds of the shot clock in an average possession. Memphis is first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Houston is 10th in the nation in that same statistic. Open shots should be hard to come by here. Take the under.
02-22-20	Hampton v. Winthrop OVER 160		87-81	Win	100	12 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The first meeting between Hampton and Winthrop finished at 116-95. That's about the average score for an NBA game. It was an all out track meet in that game. The two teams aren't likely to shoot as well as they did in the first meeting, but I would expect another track meet here. Hampton ranks 348th out of 353 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. The Pirates have allowed 80 points or more in 9 of their 14 games in the conference. Winthrop plays the quickest of any team in the league on offense and they are first in offensive efficiency as well. Winthrop should put up a big number. Winthrop's biggest weakness on defense is fouling too much. That helps Hampton a lot. Hampton ranks 8th in the nation in FT/FGA. Look for another very high scoring game between these two. Take the over.
02-22-20	Marquette v. Providence UNDER 142.5		72-84	Loss	-110	11 h 47 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Providence Friars have slowed their tempo down a lot in Big East play, and it has worked very well. They tried to play quicker in non-conference play, and it didn't work out. Now they are back to trying to win games by forcing turnovers and switching up their defenses as Ed Cooley has done for many years. Providence is 9th out of 10 teams in the Big East in tempo. The Friars are 11-3 to the under on this posted total in Big East play. Marquette is very reliant on Markus Howard. He's a great player, but against a good defense that is well-coached they generally have a good plan to at least slow down the leading scoring option. The Golden Eagles have been less efficient on offense than they were a year ago. The first game between these two was well under the total before it went into overtime. I think this number is a few points too high. Take the under.

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