Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* The IUPUI Jaguars had the worst offense in the country last year and it wasn't even close. IUPUI put up less than 0.8 points per possession. It was an absolute train wreck on the offensive end. They aren't much better this year. They will be bottom three or so in the country on offense again this year. They also play at a bottom 50 tempo. 

Denver beat IUPUI 63-47 last year on a neutral floor. Denver is slightly better on offense this year, so I do expect more points than 110, but I think this total is too high. 

Lakefront Arena where this game is being played has been a fantastic under venue through the years because of a unique shooting backdrop. 

Early season neutral court games have gone about 55% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Drexel has been good at controlling the pace of the game. The Dragons have played every Division One team on their schedule thus far to 68 possessions or fewer. The Dragons are playing a faster paced team today in Indiana State, but I still expect them to do a pretty good job of slowing the pace down.

Indiana State takes a bunch of long range jumpers. That plays to the strength of Zach Spiker and the Drexel defense. They have been a much above average team defending the 3 point line in the last few years. I expect the Sycamores to be taking a lot of contested shots from 3 in this one.

This is a neutral site game early in the season and those have been nearly 55% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lafayette Leopards are playing at one the slowest paces in the entire country. In fact, in overall tempo Lafayette is the slowest team according to KenPom. Their new coach has clearly changed the way they play. 

Penn has played three really good offenses and teams who usually play fairly quickly in Iona, Missouri, and West Virginia. Penn isn't likely to be pushing the pace very much here.

Lafayette puts up a bunch of 3 pointers, so if they are shooting really well this probably goes over, but the scouting reports on them are that they are a bit short on great shooters at this point. 

Penn turns the ball over too much to be terribly efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames have always preferred a slow tempo under Coach Ritchie McKay. They typically rank among the 50 slowest tempo teams in the country. Liberty has had some relatively high scoring games so far this year, but I think that is more about the teams they have played against than anything else. Specifically, Alabama put up a big number on them, but if Alabama is hitting their jump shots they are going to score a bunch on just about anyone.

Northwestern's tempo is down this year. The Wildcats are 11th in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. Their offense has been inefficient despite playing one of the 10 easiest slates of defenses so far this year.

This is a neutral site game early in the season which is a clear positive for the under based on the long term trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Abilene Christian Wildcats take a lot of bad jumpers. They have poor floor spacing and I don't like the sets this team runs in the halfcourt. If they aren't getting points in transition they usually struggle on offense.

Weber State has a new coach in Eric Duft and he has this team slowing down the pace. They are no longer playing to the pace they did under longtime coach Randy Rahe. Weber State isn't good at finishing at the rim either.

Abilene Christian is an excellent defensive team that forces a lot of turnovers.

This is a neutral site game early in the season which is a clear positive for the under based on the long term trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Here is a matchup that looks much different than it would have if these teams had played last year. 

Nevada lost their star scorer from a year ago, and they have decided to play at a much slower pace. The Wolf Pack went from being a team ranked in the top 50 in tempo to being a team that is playing slower than average. 

Kansas State is still much better on defense than offense. The Wildcats don't have a clear go to scorer on offense.

This is a neutral site game played early in the year and those are about 55% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech defense will be a top 10 defense in the country again this year. Adams is a fantastic defensive coach.

Louisville is atrocious offensively. Their guard play is about as bad as you will ever see from a big name team. They should have a lot of trouble scoring here.

This game is on a neutral floor and those early neutral court games have been great to under bettors for many years now.

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northern Kentucky has showed their blueprint for winning games this year. They will slow the game down as much as possible and try to win it with their defense. They are coming off a fantastic win over Cincinnati where they held the Bearcats to 11 points in the second half. Northern Kentucky ranks 350th out of 363 teams in the country in tempo so far this season.

Florida Gulf Coast has a new head coach this year in Pat Chambers. Chambers has slowed this team down quite a bit too. Florida Gulf Coast is 283rd in average possession length after being all the way up at 99th last year. They sometimes struggle with fouling too much on defense, but under Coach Horn the Northern Kentucky team hasn't usually been one that gets to the charity stripe very often.

This is on a neutral floor and that is a benefit for the under too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Holy Cross has decided to pick up the pace drastically this year. The Crusaders were 200th in average possession length two years. They were 168th last year. They are all the way up to 38th quickest so far this year. Holy Cross is still an atrocious defensive team, and now their opposition is getting more possessions with the ball. Holy Cross has played four games this year, and the fewest points in one of their games has been 143. The other three games all had at least 156 points.

Fordham's Keith Urgo said before the season one of his main goals was to get the Rams playing at a faster pace. Fordham has been a bit faster this year. The team still struggles with offensive efficiency issues against good defenses, but this Holy Cross defense will be the worst they have faced so far this season. Darius Quisenberry is a really solid scorer and I would expect a big game from him here.

The pace should be such that it would take a really bad shooting night to keep this under the total. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Howard Bison have decided to slow their tempo down in the last couple games. Even against an ultra fast paced team in Buffalo, Howard played the game to just 68 possessions. Buffalo is accustomed to playing games at least in the mid 70's in pace. Howard also slowed the game down a lot against Wyoming. It was just some fouling late in that game that got it to 148 points.

Belmont isn't as good offensively this year as they have been. Nick Muszynski was the focal point for their offense the last few seasons, and now he is gone. They are playing relatively quickly, but it has been clearly slower than a year ago.

This game is played at The Virgin Islands Fitness Center. This has been a great under venue. The under has cashed at a better than 60% rate in this gym.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCF Golden Knights have slowed their pace in a big way this year. UCF is 351st in average possession length so far this year. UCF has a bunch of height and I think Coach Dawkins is slowing the pace due to his big men not being as good running the floor. What are these big men really good at though? They are shot blockers and change a bunch of shots in the paint. The UCF defense is excellent on multiple levels. 

Santa Clara lost their two best scorers from last year. The Broncos do push the pace when they can, but I expect them to be better on defense than offense this year. Santa Clara is great at clearing defensive rebounds and defending without fouling.

This is an early season neutral court game. In game 1-8 of the regular season- neutral court unders of 133 points or higher are 54.7% since 2006. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game will be played at The Virgin Islands Sport and Fitness Center. Games played here have gone more than 60% to the under in a sample size of more than 100 games. This is a tough shooting backdrop and a court that is set up far different than a normal basketball court.

Wyoming has played faster so far this year, but their last game against Howard was their slowest paced game yet. The Cowboys rely a lot on getting to the free throw line. Drake hasn't fouled very much under Coach Darian Devries over the last few seasons.

Drake usually plays at an average or slightly slower than average tempo. The Bulldogs aren't likely to want a track meet here.

Wyoming's opponents are shooting 88.9% from the free throw line. This will regress to the mean over time.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers are great at controlling the pace of the game with Ron Sanchez as their head coach. Charlotte ranks 356th out of 363 in tempo so far this year. The 49ers just slowed down both Boise State and Tulsa in the last two days. I think they can control the tempo here as well.

Frank Martin's teams do like to play relatively quickly, but his teams are also often good on defense. Martin talked about in the offseason that he thought turning around this UMass defense was the first priority. It is already showing up on the court. They have held two solid offenses (Colorado and Murray State) to less than 1 point per possession in their last two games.

This is an early season neutral court game. In game 1-8 of the regular season- neutral court unders of 133 points or higher are 54.7% since 2006. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors game stayed under for us yesterday, and I'm going to bet the under again here. Merrimack played to just 127 points against Troy in a game that was quite the foul fest throughout. The refs had a quick whistle especially in the first half.

Merrimack was without one of their best players in Jordan Minor for that game, and it sounds like he is questionable at best for this game. The Warriors are already offensively challenged even with him on the floor.

Montana is 350th out of 363 teams in the country in average possession length so far this year. The Grizzlies defensive numbers this year don't look good, but they have faced some very good offenses. Merrimack will be the worst offense they have gone up against yet.

Merrimack's zone defense is very tricky, and Montana is a team prone to lazy turnovers. I think that could lead to some efficiency issues on the offensive end.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Mason Colonials and Boston College Eagles will square off in the Virgin Islands in an early season neutral court game. 

George Mason and Boston College are both teams who have coaches who prefer to play at a slow pace. These two teams ranked 294th and 298th in tempo last season. I expect to see these teams settle into a pretty slow pace again here.

This game is played on a neutral court. Early season neutral court unders with a total of 133 or higher are 54.7% over a massive 2,600 game sample size dating back more than 15 years. That is on the closing total as well, and usually these games get bet down as the game gets closer.

This specific court in the Virgin Islands has a whopping 59-36 record to the under overall. It is a tough gym for the shooters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are always an excellent defensive team under Coach Steve Pikiell. They have a dominant defensive big man in Omoruyi and he is going to be a major problem in the paint all year for the opposition. Rutgers has plenty of length on the perimeter as well. This is the 23rd tallest team in the country.

Temple has always been much better defensively than on offense under Aaron McKie. Temple's offensive numbers look good so far this year, but I expect those numbers to regress toward the mean. They don't have very many guys capable of creating their own shot, especially against a tough defense. 

This game is played on a neutral court. Early season neutral court unders with a total of 133 or higher are 54.7% over a massive 2,600 game sample size dating back more than 15 years. That is on the closing total as well, and usually these games get bet down as the game gets closer.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Phoenix are led by Will Ryan (son of Bo Ryan). They are always going to look to slow the pace down in a big way. Green Bay is bottom 25 in tempo out of 363 teams already this year. The Phoenix are pacing that slow despite the fact they have been getting blasted in two of their three games so far this year.

Queens is a new Division I school and there isn't a bunch of data on them yet, but they did slow the game down to some degree against a very fast paced Marshall team. They played an average pace against La Salle. 

This game is played on a neutral court. Early season neutral court unders with a total of 133 or higher are 54.7% over a massive 2,600 game sample size dating back more than 15 years. That is on the closing total as well, and usually these games get bet down as the game gets closer.

An early start here is a plus too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bucky McMillan is a guy who wants to press and push the tempo as much as possible. He said in the offseason they had too much youth and not enough depth last year. He said they will push the pace more this year. Samford will be pressing and forcing turnovers here.

Alabama A&M just turned the ball over 20 times against Tennessee State. If they couldn't handle that pressure, I think they'll turn it over a lot here and it will lead to Samford run outs and easy scores. 

Alabama A&M ranks 12th in the nation so far this year in quickest average possession length. Their new coach is Otis Hughley and this team seems intent on forcing the pace with him. They have been using extended pressure some as well.

Both of these teams are extremely prone to fouling a lot, so I expect a lot of trips to the charity stripe in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Elon Phoenix have a new coach in Billy Taylor. He has been the assistant at Iowa recently, and he talked in the offseason about implementing a new much faster pace at Elon. Taylor has worked closely with Fran McCaffrey who consistently runs a very fast paced offense that has some tremendous set plays. He said he wants his team to be pushing for 50 points in a half. Here's a good chance for them.

Elon will face North Dakota, who is one of the worst defensive teams in the country. North Dakota has been 297th or lower in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense in each of the last three years. They just gave up 93 points to Pacific. 

The Elon defense lacks height on the interior and I expect North Dakota to be able to get into the paint and have success on offense. North Dakota has been terrible from the free throw line early this year, but that should positively regress some (55% from FT line).

Look for a quick pace in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game will be played at a neutral court. The HTC Center in South Carolina. Early season neutral court unders has been a great trend in the long run, and I like the value on the under here.

Charlotte and Boise State are both excellent on the defensive glass. That is something I really like to focus on when I am looking at lower totals to stay under. I don't expect many second chance points here.

Charlotte is excellent at slowing the game down. The 49ers don't have the scoring firepower to win shootouts very often and they know it. 

Leon Rice is a good coach for the Broncos and his teams have become increasingly strong on the defensive end in recent years. They mix and match defenses and come up with some great game plans. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Merrimack has slowed the game down and played that fantastic zone defense of Joe Gallo’s year after year. I expect them to do the same again this year. In game one of their season they got down big early against St. John’s (much more talented team) and had to speed up the pace. I expect slower pace here.

Merrimack has been very inefficient on offense the last couple years. 336th and 325th in offensive efficiency in the country last two seasons. 

Troy’s best finish in offensive efficiency the last three years has been #258 in the country so another inefficient offense. Scott Cross’ team has improved a lot from a couple years ago on defense though.

An early season neutral court under and that has in the long run been a good angle.

I’m on the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Omaha Mavericks have a new coach in Chris Crutchfield. Crutchfield has slowed down the tempo drastically at Omaha. This team was 50th in the nation in tempo last year. They are sitting at 251st so far this season. Omaha's coaching staff has emphasized the need for improved defense this year. They won't be great on defense by any means, but they'll be better than a year ago.

Ball State has a new coach in Mike Lewis. He was an assistant coach at UCLA and is a defensive-minded guy. In their first couple games, Ball State has played clearly slower than they did a year ago as well. They are using two seconds more per possession than they did a year ago. That will reduce the amount of overall possessions in the contest.

Two teams with new coaches who are looking to focus on defense and slow the pace down. The books have set a number that is pretty close to what it should have been with the previous coaches. I think there hasn't been a big enough adjustment made to the new styles of play here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Dakota Fighting Hawks have been atrocious on defense several years in a row. North Dakota's best defense in the last four years finished #297 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They were #353 last year. 

Pacific has changed the way they play this year. The Tigers have picked up the pace a bunch. Pacific is playing five possessions per game faster than they did a year ago. That kind of drastic change in pace is going to alter their totals quite a bit. I don't think the oddsmakers have caught up yet.

Pacific has played two games that finished at 166 and 177 points. Against North Dakota State, they were playing a good defensive team that likes to play slow and the game still hit 177 points.

North Dakota is good at getting to the charity stripe, and this Pacific team has been doing a lot of fouling with their aggressive pressing and trapping.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is being played on a neutral floor at Sanford Pentagon. South Dakota State is essentially the home team, but this is still not their normal court. Neutral games played early in the year have gone about 55% to the under in the last decade. 

St. Bonaventure is going to work hard to slow this game down. To say that the Bonnies lost a lot from last year is a major understatement. Nearly everyone either transferred or graduated from the Bonnies veteran team that has made multiple good runs in the last few years. Schmidt is a good coach and he will get this team to buy in, but the firepower isn't there now. They will try to keep it lower scoring.

South Dakota State also lost their two stars in Douglas Wilson and Bailey Scheirman. The Jackrabbits are still a solid team, but they don't have the huge offensive upside they had the last few seasons.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mercer Bears have been a slightly below average tempo team the last couple years. Mercer takes on Georgia State who has a new coach in Jonas Hayes this year. 

It was a little unclear before the season what Jonas Hayes would do in terms of style and pace, but in his first two games it has been across the board slow tempo and a lot of the pack line defense. Hayes has taken Georgia State away from the pressing identity they had in the past. Georgia State ranks 341st (bottom 25 in terms of tempo) in average possession length so far this year. 

Georgia State is doing a really good job contesting shots inside the arc. Georgia State is taking a lot of low percentage offensive shots themselves though.

Look for a slow pace and some tough looks for both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sacramento State has a new head coach in David Patrick. Patrick has a history of having his teams slow the game down drastically. They also have played very good defense. 

So far this year, Sacramento State ranks 358th in overall tempo in the country. They are forcing games into slow paced rock fights. The Hornets have some great height in the interior too and they should keep opponents out of the paint and hold teams to one shot most of the time.

Denver played its only Division I game against Idaho. Idaho has one of the worst defenses in the country. Denver is likely to struggle against this Sacramento State defense.

Sacramento State has had two games and they finished with 126 and 120 points total. I think this game is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs are a completely different team under new head coach Chris Jans. Jans always gets his teams to play tough defense. You won't play for Jans if you don't work extremely hard on defense. His teams typically play at a slow pace as well.

Mississippi State is 305th in the nation in tempo so far this year. The Bulldogs are already at 27th in effective field goal percentage defense too. They were 161st last year. Texas A&M Corpus Christi put up only 44 points on Mississippi State, and Akron only scored 54 points.

Arkansas Pine-Bluff is a really bad team from the SWAC. They are slightly slower than average in tempo and they are really inefficient on offense, even against SWAC teams. I find it very hard to believe that they'll be able to score very many points here. 

Look for Mississippi State to coast in this one. I think this total is a good amount too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers work very hard on defense for Rick Barnes. They have all kinds of length even on the perimeter and that can really make life difficult for opposing guards. Tennessee has been a top 5 defense the last couple years, and I expect them to be at least top ten again this year.

Colorado lacks a go to scorer this season. Tad Boyle's teams have struggled badly on the road through his whole tenure leading the team. 

This game is being played at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. This is a spacious arena with well noted very tough shooting backdrops. In the queries I have run, Bridgestone Arena ranks in the top four for "under arenas." This is a place where the under has been a very good wager in the long run.

I see two solid defenses and a neutral floor that has been great for unders. I like this one to stay below the number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I fully expect Corey Gipson to slow the tempo down some at Northwestern State. Gipson knows this Northwestern State team has to get much better on defense than they have been in recent years. He comes from Missouri State and I think we'll see a pretty drastic difference in this Northwestern State team's style of play right away.

Illinois State has a new coach as well in Ryan Pedon comes in to take over for Dan Mueller. Pedon was an Ohio State assistant, and his preferred pace will be much slower than Illinois State has played in recent years as well. The Redbirds rank 300th in the country in tempo so far this year. 

I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough based on the new styles these two teams will be playing with these new head coaches. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Presbyterian Blue Hose are a very weak team on offense. Presbyterian doesn't take good shots, and they don't really have that many clear cut scorers on the team. While they aren't good on offense, this Presbyterian defense is really scrappy. Quinton Ferrell is a defensive-minded coach, and it absolutely shows with their aggressive defense. They force a lot of turnovers and often cause the offense to take tough jump shots.

East Carolina has a new coach in Michael Schwartz. He has been the defensive mastermind at Tennessee the last few years for Rick Barnes. Schwartz has done an amazing job switching up defenses and using aggressive defenses to make the offense uncomfortable at all times. He has been clear that he thinks this East Carolina team has the athleticism to be good on defense immediately. On offense, they will likely still need to get things figured out for a while.

Last year, Presbyterian's first 5 games all had 126 or fewer total points. Their first two this year have had 128 or fewer. 

The tempo should be fairly slow in this one as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks had a lot of turnover in their roster, but Eric Musselman's team is loaded with talent once again this year. Arkansas brought in Trevon Brazile from Missouri. He is a big man who can play down low or step outside and hit the 3 ball. Ricky Council is a good pickup from Wichita State as well. The Razorbacks expect big things out of freshmen Anthony Black and Jordan Walsh as well. 

Arkansas always wants to force the tempo, and I expect no different this year. The Razorbacks have a lot of speed and they'll use it whenever they can. 

Fordham has a new coach in Keith Urgo after Kyle Neptune got the Villanova job. Urgo said in the offseason that he wants his team to really pick up the pace compared to last year. Here is a great chance for them to play quickly. They did move quickly in a high scoring 88-74 win over Dartmouth in game one. Fordham sometimes struggles with efficiency on offense, and they could some here, but I think the pace will be such that they should be able to put up enough points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Princeton offense that Joe Scott runs is all about keeping his team that is far less talented than the opposition in the game with a great scheme. It also does a very good job of slowing the pace down. I expect Air Force to be one of the 20 slowest paced teams in the country yet again this season. 

Air Force slowed down Bowling Green (a very fast paced team) in their season opening contest. That game finished 62-58. The Falcons will slow the tempo down again here.

Delaware has some new faces this year, and the Blue Hens have improved defensively according to their head coach. They have better length and they have quick perimeter defenders. Delaware is expected to take some time to gel on offense with new faces getting quite a few minutes.

I like this one to stay lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs will look quite a bit different without star big man Orlando Robinson. He was their star on both ends and Justin Hutson has to find a different way to win games with this Fresno team this year. 

Fresno State always competes very hard on the defensive end for Coach Hutson. I think Hutson will have another solid defensive team this year. 

UCSB is well coached by Joe Pasternack. He wants to play at a slow pace. UCSB has offensive talent, but they aren't likely to push the issue or put up too many shots from three point range. On defense, UCSB is a top 75 team in effective field goal percentage defense.

Fresno State always wants to play slowly as well. Hutson's teams are well noted for doing a great job of controlling the pace of the game. 

This game is played at a neutral site. Early neutral site games have been very good under plays in the long term.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Presbyterian Blue Hose can definitely turn a game into an ugly low scoring contest. This is a team that forces turnovers in loads thanks to their aggressive defense. They also are very inefficient on offense and rank in the bottom 50 in the country in possession length on offense. They play at a very slow pace.

The Citadel will look a lot different without Duggar Baucom on the sidelines. The Citadel will no longer be a top ten tempo team that puts up 3's nonstop and gives up quick shots each time the other weay. I expect them to be an average paced team or so. The offense will be run completely differently.

Presbyterian can probably get the Bulldogs into a slower paced game here. I don't think the adjustment has been quite large enough here based on The Citadel's changes.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Reading the quotes from Jeremy Ballard, the coach of FIU, has me thinking this FIU team is about to play much faster once again this year. This team ranked first in the nation in overall pace of play in Ballard's first season. They were consistently very fast until last year. Ballard said he had the team slow down their tempo because of COVID issues and injuries. They weren't nearly as successful. Ballard said he was very upset to not get to press full court and try to turn the game into a track meet. He says they will do that again this year. Here is a great chance to show that.

Houston Christian is a team that has struggled with turnovers a lot the last few years. FIU should be able to get quick steals and scores off them. Houston Christian is happy to play a quick pace too and I think they'll get enough points of their own.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets aren't the same offense without LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. Those guys really bump up the efficiency numbers on offense. Terry Rozier is doubtful here too, and he and Ball are the two who really push the pace. 

Memphis has played poor defense overall this year, and that has led to some disappointing outcomes. They were much better defensively last game, and their coaching staff is really working on improving the defensive end.

I think this total would be appropriate if Rozier, Ball, and Hayward were all healthy, but they aren't. With these guys out, I believe this total is a few points high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency so far this year. Milwaukee has a ton of length all over the floor, and I would expect them to be a major problem for opposing offenses throughout the season. 

Milwaukee has been playing slower so far this year as well. In their first three games, Milwaukee is playing at a tempo slower than NBA league average. If that continues, I think the Bucks could have some much lower scoring games than expected. Their defense against the Nets last game was excellent.

The Knicks have been good so far this year, but this is a completely different matchup that should trouble them. New York is no faster than league average in tempo either.

This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are two very talented defensive teams. Boston was the best defense in the NBA last year. I see no reason to expect them to be worse on defense this year. The Celtics have length and athleticism all over the floor.

The 76ers have an elite shot blocker down low in Embiid. P.J. Tucker is a difference maker on the defensive end as well. I expect the 76ers to do a much better than average time keeping opponents out of the lane. If the Celtics are nailing a ton of 3's here it could hurt a lot, but overall I see Boston as an inconsistent long range shooting team.

The pace should be about average in this one. The last five meetings between these two teams have seen 4 of those games finish at 211 points or lower. 

Early season unders have done very well in the NBA in the long run. That has been especially true in conference and divisional matchups.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game 7 in Miami- it all comes down to this. The winner of this game goes to the NBA Finals. The loser of this game heads home thinking about what could have been. 

The Boston Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA. Boston wasn't good enough defensively against Jimmy Butler in Game 6, but I expect them to make things a lot tougher on him in Game 7. Overall, Miami has really had to work very hard to get open shots in this series, and their backcourt of Lowry and Strus hasn't been good enough on offense.

The Celtics offense is inconsistent. The Miami Heat are capable of playing excellent defense with guys like PJ Tucker locking down on the perimeter. Butler is a good defensive player as well. 

The pace of the game should slow quite a bit with everything on the line. We've seen strong trends toward unders in game 7's in recent decades in the NBA. Look for the two defenses to come with max effort. 

The Celtics were just involved in a very low scoring game 7 against Milwaukee. I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors both shot the ball extremely well in Game Two. Golden State averaged 1.286 points per possession in that game. Dallas averaged 1.182 points per possession.

Last game being so high scoring has led to this total being moved up by a few points. In fact, the Warriors and Mavericks have faced off six times this year. This is the second highest posted total of the season in their matchups.

Remember, this is a playoff game that is an absolute must win for the Dallas Mavericks. For a posted total to be the second highest of six matchups between these two- that stands out to me. 

In the playoffs- Dallas has played much slower and played much better defense in their home games. The Mavericks are 5-1 to the under at home in the playoffs. 

At home in the playoffs their games are averaging just 91.42 possessions and they are allowing only 1.024 points per possession. On the road their games have averaged 94.33 possessions and they are allowing 1.184 points per possession.

Look for Dallas to slow things down some here. The Mavericks should be giving max effort on defense. 

Both of these teams do shoot the ball well and there is potential for them to light it up for 3, but with this being a must win for Dallas and the oddsmakers setting the line several points higher I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Boston to take on the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the hotly contested Eastern Conference Semifinals series. This has been a fantastic series with great drama and some high levels of play by each team.

It's win or go home time for both teams. These win or go home games have consistently been played at a slower pace. Why? This game means everything and teams are far more likely to slow things down and try to avoid the ridiculous turnovers. These games also bring max effort on the defensive end.

Boston and Milwaukee are arguably the two best defensive teams in the NBA. They are at least both top five defenses in the NBA. There is a ton of length on the floor in this game, and I would expect a lot of contested shots.

Could they be hitting tough jumpers? Of course it is possible, but I like the chances of the under hitting in this situation.

Four of the six games in this series so far have finished at 204 points or lower. This one is the most important game yet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dallas trails 3-2 in this series, so the Mavericks have to win this one to extend the series to a 7th game. The Mavericks won the first two meetings at home partially by slowing the tempo down. I expect Dallas to slow the pace down again here. The Mavericks have been better late in the season on the defensive end on their home court as well.

The pace in the last three games of this series has been an average of 92.5 possessions per game. If the teams average 1.14 points per possession (above average offensive efficiency), the game would finish at 211 points. 

Later in the series these games usually slow down. It is win or go home time and that usually brings about a slower pace and stronger defense. 

Dallas has the blueprint for winning against Phoenix. Can they do it again here? I don't know, but I do think they can set the pace enough to keep this below the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks come home to take on the Phoenix Suns in game of this series. Phoenix leads 2-0 after they destroyed Dallas in the fourth quarter of game two. 

While Luka Doncic has been great on offense his defense has been exposed here. I do think Jason Kidd is a good coach, and I expect Dallas to have a better defensive game plan for game three. They'll try to hide Doncic on defense when they can. 

Phoenix is a very good offensive team, but they aren't this good. The Suns are averaging an insane 1.35 points per possession in this series. They shot a little over 64% from the floor in game two. The first two games of this series have gone over the total easily. 

In the regular season, all three meetings between these two teams stayed under this total. Dallas is likely to want to slow the tempo down more in this game (the Mavericks had a bottom five tempo rating this year). 

This game now has a higher posted total than any of the regular season games between these two teams. Playoff games mean more and they are usually totaled much lower than regular season games. I think there is some recency bias in this number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have a really good head coach in Nick Nurse. Nurse is known for two things- 1. His adjustments throughout a series and even in a game- 2. His defensive mindset and the unique defenses he puts together. Toronto has played much better defense in games 3-5 against the 76ers. 

Joel Embiid is hurting and that overall should hurt his offense more than his defense as well. The 76ers have been slowed down quite a bit of late too with Tyrese Maxey being shut down by the Raptors in recent games. 

Toronto has been much better at home on defense in general, and they will look to dictate the tempo and slow the game down here. 

As we get deeper into the series throughout the NBA in the playoffs, we typically see a slowdown in tempo and high intensity on defense. This is an elimination game and if Toronto wins this could be all the way back to 3-3. I think both teams show up with quality defense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This series is all tied up at 2-2. Game five in Memphis is a huge game. The Timberwolves have played the Grizzlies tough all season. 

Last game the final was 119-118. In that game, the two teams combined to shoot 33/68 (48.5%) from 3 point range. There were also 65 free throws in the game. Even with those numbers, the game edged over this total. 

As the games get more important the totals tend to on average get a little lower. If both teams shoot lights out here then this selection will lose, but if we see shooting numbers like their season averages I like this game to stay under. 

The pace of the game has been slower the last couple games in this series. As the series gets even more important the game is likely to slow down a little more.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Toronto Raptors 131-111 on Saturday night in game one. The pace of that game was 90 possessions. That was the slowest paced game of the playoff contests on Saturday. The 76ers averaged an insane 1.472 points per possession in that game. That is almost unheard of in the NBA- especially in the playoffs. Toronto shot the ball extremely well and averaged 1.22 points per possession. They still lost by 20 points. 

These two teams were in the 1.13-1.14 range in points per possession in the regular season. Harden has made the 76ers offense better, but it isn't as good as they looked on Saturday. The 76ers had one turnover with 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter. The shooting numbers should regress. 

The first game had a total of 215.5. We are getting 5 points higher on the line because of the insane efficiency numbers on offense in game one. At a pace of 90 possessions, the two teams could average 1.20 points per possession (above average) and the total points would finish at 216. 

I have to bet the under and hope the regression comes in game two. They can't be that good on offense the whole series. They are giving us 5 more points here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks were absolutely torched by the LA Clippers last game. The Clippers put up 153 points and made 23 three point shots. Robert Covington made 11 of them by himself. The Bucks sat out all their best players in that game. 

Milwaukee is second in the Eastern Conference standings. The Bucks are just one game ahead of the fourth place 76ers. These last few games are important to the Bucks and I think with their starters back in the lineup here they will show up defensively.

Dallas was blasted by Washington in an embarrassing 135-103 game last time out. The Mavericks have been a top ten defense on the year though. Dallas ranks second slowest in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They will try to slow the game down here.

Two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher from game 60 of the season on- the under is slightly better than 57% since 2005. This angle has been very good in recent seasons. This game fits the angle.

This is also an early game on Sunday and those have been strong to the under in the long haul.

Both teams should be playing hard for playoff seeding here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We've reached the Final Four. While there were many upsets along the way, we have a final four of all big name programs. Villanova takes on Kansas in the first game at the Superdome on Saturday evening. 

Villanova is without Justin Moore and that definitely hurts them quite a bit, but this is a really well coached Villanova team. Jay Wright knows his team has a better chance if they keep this game played in the halfcourt and slow the pace down as much as possible. Villanova has played six games in a row to a pace of 62 possessions or slower. 

Kansas has done a solid job not fouling down the stretch this season. Villanova shoots a ridiculous 83 percent from the line, and if Kansas can keep them off the line they have a much better chance of slowing the Wildcats down here. The Jayhawks have seen their last two games played to 127 and 126 points. They are usually a pretty high scoring team, but they have had several low games on neutral courts this year.

This game is played at the Superdome in New Orleans. In the last 15 years, there have been 3 games played at the Superdome. Those three games were the Final 4 and Championship Games back in 2012. All 3 of those games went under the total. They all went under the closing total by at least 5 points. This is a huge stadium with tough sight lines. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors host the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday night. Golden State plans to have Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala all on the floor together for the first time this year. 

Andre Iguodala has the best individual defensive player rating on this team. Green is second best. Thompson is clearly a good defender as well. With these guys all on the floor, Golden State is a very good defensive team. 

Phoenix has Chris Paul back in the lineup. Paul is excellent on offense, but the team plays at a slower pace with him leading the way. The Suns are in transition much more often when Cam Payne is at point guard. 

A game late in the season between two good teams has been a good under bet in the last 15 seasons in the NBA. In fact, between game 60 and 82 of the season a game played between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher- the under is 57.2% dating back to 2006. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is an NIT Semifinal for Tuesday March 29. There is quite an impressive NIT Semifinal and Finals totals trend that stands out. The under is 28-12 in the last 40 NIT Semifinals and Finals round games with a total of 129 or higher. The under is 23-6 in games with a total of 135.5 or higher in this spot.

The venue here is Madison Square Garden. It is absolutely one of the best under venues in college basketball. This is a massive arena with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Throw in the fact that in the early rounds of the NIT most teams care very little, but once they reach this stage they are going to slow down and give more effort on defense. 

Texas A&M actually hasn't had any of their 3 NIT games thus far go over 136 points. Washington State has seen two of their three games stay under. The other one only finished at 138 points.

Both Washington State and Texas A&M are better on defense than offense. Washington State ranks 263rd in effective FG percentage offense and 39th in effective FG % defense. Texas A&M is 198th on offense and 65th on defense.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks host the Utah Jazz in an important late regular season game between two teams tied in the Western Conference playoff standings. 

These teams are tied for fourth place in the Western Conference standings. They are also only 2.5 games ahead of Minnesota for the 7th spot in the standings. Remember, #7-#10 are in the "play in" tournament. Everyone will push hard to stay out of those spots. 

These late season regular season games between two good teams have been good to under bettors. When both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher and it is game 60 or later of the regular season the under is 56.9% dating back to 2005. In recent years, this angle has done very well.

Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games. Utah ranks 24th. The tempo here should be slow. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats rank 345th in the country in overall tempo. The Houston Cougars rank 338th in the nation in tempo. These are two bottom 20 teams in the nation in pace of play. The pace here should be extremely slow with this one almost exclusively being played in the halfcourt. 

Houston slowed Arizona down and that game finished at only 62 possessions. Villanova hasn't had a game in the NCAA Tournament over 62 possessions. I think there is a good shot this game plays to 60 possessions or fewer based on how slow the teams play and the importance of the game.

Villanova is 24th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Houston relies heavily on offensive rebounds. Villanova ranks 80th in the country in second chance points allowed, which is better than Houston's first two opponents in the NCAA Tournament.

Houston is 3rd in effective field goal percentage defense. The Cougars will likely make the post up offense and pick and roll offense Villanova runs tough sledding for the Wildcats here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars are a really well coached team. Ed Cooley is willing to do whatever it takes to keep his teams in the game. They will mix in zone looks including 1-3-1 zone defense to trap and keep the opponent off guard. Providence is likely to do a lot of mixing up their defenses here against a good Kansas offense.

I also expect Providence to look to slow the pace down. The Friars aren't likely to want a track meet type game here. Providence ranks 283rd in the country in overall tempo.

Kansas has been excellent on 3 point defense. In the Big 12, Kansas' opponents shot less than 28% from 3 point range. Providence has shot it well from long range, but Shot Quality and other analytical sites believe they are due for regression. I think Providence could struggle to find open looks in this one.

The under is 22-8-2 in the last 32 Sweet 16 games with a spread of 7.5 or larger. The consensus line here is 7.5 right now. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs are favored by 9 or 9.5 points in this one. Games with a spread of 7.5 points or more are 21-8-2 to the under in the Sweet 16. This game fits the system.

The Arkansas Razorbacks offense has been inconsistent this year. Arkansas ranks only 237th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Razorbacks  rely heavily on getting to the free throw line. They are 15th in FTA/FGA in the country. Gonzaga has always been good at defending without fouling though and this year is no different. The Bulldogs rank 22nd in the nation in defensive FTA/FGA. Arkansas is just 30.5% from 3 point range this year, and I don't trust them to knock down jumpers here on a neutral court in San Francisco.

Gonzaga's offense is really good. There isn't much bad to say about them. They can be hit or miss from 3 point range at times. Arkansas has a good shot blocker down low in Jaylin Williams. 

Look for Chet Holmgren's length inside to really bother the Arkansas frontcourt here.

This is a 4 pm local time tipoff in a neutral venue, which is a positive for the under.

I'll back the system and take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are without Stephen Curry and to say that this team looks different now is a major understatement. Not surprisingly, Curry is easily Golden State's highest rated offensive player. Otto Porter Jr. is seeing a lot more minutes now and he is much better defensively than on offense.

Golden State ranks 3rd last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last two games (without Curry). Those two games were against terrible defenses in the Spurs and the Magic. Now, Golden State goes to play a top five defense in the NBA in Miami.

The Heat and the Warriors both rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in tempo in the last month. I would expect this game to be played at a relatively slow tempo.

Miami is off an embarrassing loss where their defense gave up 113 points to a 76ers team without Harden and Embiid. The Heat should be better defensively.

There are multiple strong systems on the under late in the season in the NBA when it is a matchup of two teams with a good record. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers rank second in the country in offensive efficiency. Purdue was rolling on offense against Yale, but took their foot off the gas as many high seeds do with a large lead in the second half of the Round of 64 matchups.

Purdue has two elite big men in Edey and Williams. Edey is particularly hard to matchup against. He is an offensive rebounding machine. Texas has had trouble with defensive rebounding all year. Expect it to be a major issue here. 

Jaden Ivey is one of the best offensive players in the country, and he should be a handful here too.

Texas has improved in recent weeks on offense. The Longhorns are likely to have success in this game. As good as Purdue is on offense, the Boilermakers aren't very good defensively. Purdue is just 90th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

A close game is expected here. Purdue gets to the line a bunch and Texas fouls a lot as well. A foul fest late or even overtime is a possibility.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans rank 350th out of 358 teams in the country in average possession length. They are stalling in a big way. UNC Greensboro has played a bunch of games to 60 possessions or less this year. 

Boston University is 274th in average possession length. The Terriers definitely prefer to play slowly as well. There should be no pace war in a game like this.

This is a small postseason tournament and the total is adjusted upward for that. This game is played at a neutral site though and neutral site games have played to lower total in the long run than regular home sites. 

Neither team gets to the line very much and I believe it will take very good shooting numbers to get this one past the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs play at the single fastest pace in the country in terms of average possession length. Memphis will use a full court press and very aggressive defense to try to get points off turnovers. While Gonzaga hasn't been terrible about turning the ball over this year, they haven't faced teams who press in the WCC.

Memphis ranks 9th in quick points off steals. Gonzaga ranks 110th in preventing those quick points off steals. Gonzaga ranks 4th in halfcourt defense and 139th in transition defense. Memphis will try to score in transition here.

Memphis is certainly much better on offense with DeAndre Williams in the lineup now. The Tigers get a lot of second chance points and get to the line a lot. 

Gonzaga's offense is so balanced that I believe they can do damage against Memphis. The Tigers are also weak in transition defense (110th) and Gonzaga can take advantage of that weakness in a big way.

The pace here should be extremely fast.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTEP Miners have sped up their pace late in the season. UTEP is aggressive with their defense and they look for chances to get steals and score quickly in transition. Western Illinois has had recent problems taking care of the basketball and their transition defense ranks in the bottom 60 teams in the country.

Western Illinois also is terrible at defending the 3 point line. UTEP takes a lot of long range jumpers.

Western Illinois has seen 8 of their last 10 games go over this total. UTEP has been back and forth on higher and lower scoring.

This is a first round smaller postseason tournament, and these games have gone over at a better than 55% clip in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 Star  Play Under*

Seton Hall point guard, Bryce Aiken, is badly missed by the Seton Hall offense. Seton Hall will probably be playing at a slow pace since TCU is strong when it comes to dictating tempo. TCU ranks among the 50 slowest teams in average possession length. 

Seton Hall is still an elite defensive team. TCU isn't a good jump shooting team and they are reliant on getting a lot of second chance points. Over the course of the season, Seton Hall has been above average at preventing second chance opportunities. 

This total is set low, but I still believe it is a little too high. Look for the two offenses to struggle to get open looks. 

Take the under.

3* Play Under  The Cal State Fullerton Titans had been unable to score against quality competition. Fullerton scored only 66 against Wyoming, and 56 against San Diego State. Duke has a huge size advantage in this game. Fullerton prefers to drive to the hoop, but Duke ranks top 30 in blocked shots and #2 in the county in defending without fouling. Duke has slowed down their tempo late in the season. 

A great long term angle on round of 64 totals has been betting the under when a highly seeded team is a large favorite. When the favorite is -8 or higher, the under has hit at better than 60% over the past 15 years.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers play the Yale Bulldogs in the NCAA Tournament first round.

High seeds favored by at least 6 points in round one of the NCAA Tournament have been great under bets when the total has been above 135. That system is above 60% in the last decade. This game fits this system.

Yale isn't very good offensively, and they prefer to play slowly. The Bulldogs aren't likely to be able to expose Purdue's relative defensive weaknesses. 

Matt Painter's team has shown the willingness to slow down when they have a sizeable late lead. The Boilermakers are likely going to be playing from the lead throughout here.

I'm trusting the system and expecting a pretty slow pace here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes offense is absolutely rolling right now. Keegan Murray is arguably the best offensive player in the country. Murray has been shooting lights out of late, and he is far from the only weapon this Hawkeyes team has on offense. Kris Murray is also playing really well and is breaking out on offense. Jordan Bohannon is an elite outside shooter. Iowa is averaging 1.215 points per possession on the year. That is only behind Gonzaga.

Richmond ranks 315th in transition defense. The Spiders are terrible in transition defense, and Iowa is all about pushing the pace. They rank 20th in average possession length in the country. The Spiders aren't likely to have any answers. Grant Golden is a good player, but he is too slow and weak defensively to keep up with the Iowa frontcourt.

Iowa is still only decent on defense. Richmond star guard Gilyard should give the Hawkeyes some trouble here. Golden is a good offensive big man who can pass it well and set up shooters. Iowa struggles to defend the 3 point line. 

Iowa is 3rd in the country in turnover percentage. Richmond is 9th. Don't expect many wasted possessions in this one. 

Richmond gave up 85 to Utah State and 86 to Maryland in the non-conference slate. Iowa should put up a big number here. I think Richmond scores enough too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are the top seed in this region, and they'll play Norfolk State from the MEAC. 

Norfolk State has a long history of not scoring many points in games against high level competition. The MEAC is a very weak league, and when Norfolk State's offense has stepped up in class, the results haven't been good. 

Norfolk State scored just 48 on Xavier earlier this year. They scored only 58 against Wichita State. They scored just 54 against a weak New Mexico defense. Last year they made the NCAA Tournament and scored 54 points on Appalachian State and 55 on Gonzaga (they had just 39 with 5 minutes remaining in that one). They scored only 47 on a good UNC Greensboro defense early last year. 

I don't think Norfolk State is going to score much here. Baylor is a bit shorthanded here, but I think that hurts them more on offense than defense. The question is how many will Baylor score? Baylor is likely to be leading big in this one. The history of these high vs. low seed matchups is the better team lets their foot off the gas enough late in these games that the under has done very well in the last 15 years in the NCAA Tournament. I think this sets up as another game where that can happen.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Long Beach State 49ers push the pace to the extreme. Long Beach ranks 27th in the country in overall tempo. The 49ers defense is 256th in effective field goal percentage defense. They did look pretty good in Big West play defensively, but there are all kinds of really bad offenses in the Big West right now.

BYU ranks 124th overall in tempo, so the Cougars are faster than the average team as well. The Cougars faced some really good defenses on the year. KenPom rates their slate of defenses faced 51st toughest in the country. BYU is up against a much weaker defense here in Long Beach State. Alex Barcello is the leader of a BYU team that shoots the ball really well from 3 point range. Long Beach State ranks 279th in the country in 3 point defense.

BYU ranks 312th in transition defense this year, and Long Beach State gets out in transition early and often. The 49ers should have some success on fastbreaks here. They will use a lot of pressure defense and force turnovers that turn into quick breakaway opportunities.

The over has been a good play early in these smaller postseason tournaments.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes go to Utah to take on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds. 

Southern Utah ranks 99th in tempo. They will look to push the pace throughout in this  game. Kent State ranks 245th.

Kent State and Southern Utah are both very good at getting to the line. There should be a lot of points from the charity stripe in this one. Additionally, both of these teams have struggled on the defensive glass. Second chance points should help us quite a bit here.

In the smaller postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, etc) the over is an impressive 55.1% on the closing number since 2006. 

I think this line will move up, and I like the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Morgan State Bears are always going to push the pace. They don't know any other way. Morgan State ranks 14th in the country in pace of play. They are getting out in transition at a very high rate.

Youngstown State ranks 224th in overall tempo. Youngstown State is 322nd in defensive efficiency in the country. The question with Morgan State is always whether they will make enough shots, but against this weak defense I do think they can score enough. 

The two offenses have massive advantages on the boards. Youngstown State ranks 73rd in second chance conversion percentage. The Morgan State defense ranks 279th. Morgan State's offense is 42nd in the nation in second chance conversions. Youngstown State's defense ranks 276th. 

In the smaller postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, etc) the over is an impressive 55.1% on the closing number since 2006. 

I think this line will move up, and I like the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders rank 97th in overall tempo. There are a lot of teams in the Horizon League that don't like to play quickly, but Wright State gets their chance to run and gun here.

Bryant ranks 7th in the nation in tempo. The Bulldogs have the leading scorer in the country in Peter Kiss. 

Both of these teams are excellent on the offensive glass. They both rank in the bottom 50 in the country in defensive rebounding as well. There should be a bunch of second chance opportunities throughout this contest. 

The offenses are both better than the defenses in this one. Both teams go to the rim and to the line quite a bit. Neither team has a strong shot blocker.

Expect a fast paced game here. Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers are both teams who prefer to play at a slow pace. These two teams want a halfcourt battle rather than a transition game.

Late in the NBA regular season, games between two teams with a high win percentage have been good under bets. In fact, games after game 60 of the regular season- when the road team has a win percentage of 55% or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 60% or higher.. and the total is 210 or higher- the under is a whopping 141-86 (62.1% unders).

This game fits this system nicely. Two good teams playing to better their position in the NBA playoff standings.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Most people would likely guess Gonzaga had the best offense in the country this year. That would be wrong. 

Purdue ranks first in the country in offensive efficiency for the season. Who ranks second? The Iowa Hawkeyes. Here we have a matchup of the top two offenses in terms of efficiency in the country. 

In Big Ten play, the Iowa Hawkeyes actually ranks first in offensive efficiency, and Purdue ranks second. 

Iowa ranks 96th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Purdue ranks 102nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Neither of these teams are very good on that end of the floor. 

Both these teams shoot the ball really well from 3 point range and both defenses struggle defending long range jumpers. 

On the whole, I don't like betting conference tournament unders. This though is a court where scoring has been just fine. Also, the Big Ten Tournament finals have actually been more to the over in the last decade. 

These offenses are just too good.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is the Southland Conference Tournament Championship played in Katy, Texas on a neutral floor. The games on this neutral floor have been playing to a much slower pace and have been much lower scoring than the regular season games in the Southland.

Both of these teams do play quickly, and the total should be set pretty high. I do think this total is a few points too high though considering the circumstances. The winner of this game will make the NCAA Tournament. 

Final games in Conference Tournaments are 56.6% to the under in the last 15 years. The game tends to slow down and the shooting percentages are a bit lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes and Akron Zips are bitter rivals. Kent State won two hard fought games between these two in the regular season. 

Those two games finished at 122 and 130 points combined. Shot Quality says based on the quality of shots taken those games should have finished at 122 and 113 points.

These are two good defensive teams and I think both teams will have a hard time finding open looks.

This game is played at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse where the Cavs play. This is a large arena and the under is 36-26 in the last 62 MAC Tournament games played here.

Final games in Conference Tournaments are 56.6% to the under in the last 15 years. The game tends to slow down and the shooting percentages are a bit lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Creighton just torched the nets against Providence last night. I don't think they will do it again here. They are without star guard Ryan Nembhard, and overall their offense has been clearly worse without him on the floor.

Villanova plays at the 347th fastest tempo out of 358 teams. The Wildcats are very good offensively, but Creighton is the number one defense in the Big East in terms of efficiency.

Both of these teams are elite at defending without fouling. 

Final games in Conference Tournaments are 56.6% to the under in the last 15 years. The game tends to slow down and the shooting percentages are a bit lower.

Madison Square Garden postseason neutral site games have been great in the long run. This is a tough shooting backdrop in a huge arena. Another plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars and Creighton Blue Jays met recently and the final was 72-51. Creighton struggled against Ed Cooley's unique mix of man and zone defenses. 

The Blue Jays aren't the same offensive team without Ryan Nemhard. Creighton is much better than people realize on defense though. The Blue Jays are 17th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Providence has had trouble shooting at Madison Square Garden in their last couple trips. They averaged 1 point per possession against a mediocre Butler defense yesterday. They averaged just 0.86 points per possession in their Big East Tournament loss to DePaul last year. 

Both teams prefer to play at a slow pace.

Madison Square Garden has been one of the best under venues in college basketball for many years. The shooting backdrop is tough and this is a massive arena. The under has hit north of 58% in the postseason games here in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met during the regular season twice. One of the games stayed far below this total. One of the games went above this total due to a late foul fest.

Monmouth's defense has been excellent late in the season. The Hawks are really clamping down on the defensive end. They have also slowed their pace down quite a bit. Their game against Niagara was played to only 58 possessions yesterday. 

Rider has been inconsistent on offense this year. The Broncs have improved defensively a lot from last year.

Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue in the MAAC Tournament the last few seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have been one of the best under teams in the country this year. North Texas again went under the total yesterday thanks to their extremely slow pace and great defense. They slowed that game down so drastically against Rice that the game was just 53 possessions! That's one of the slowest paces of any game this year.

The most recent game between North Texas and LA Tech was 56-49. Last year in the Conference USA Semifinals these two played a game that was 54-48.

LA Tech played a 59-57 game against a much worse defense and faster paced team in W Kentucky yesterday.

The Frisco Center at the Star has proven to be a tremendous under venue through the years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Monmouth Hawks take on the Niagara Eagles tonight in the MAAC Tournament. 

These teams played two regular season games. They were 106 points and then 122 points in regulation. 

These two teams rank 51st and 95th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Niagara ranks 204th in effective field goal percentage offense. Monmouth ranks 274th in effective field goal percentage offense.

Boardwalk Hall has been an exceptional under venue. The unders that have cashed here have cashed by an average of more than 16 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders have slowed down their pace a lot in the last couple months. MTSU was pushing the pace in the non conference slate, but they rank 11th out of 14 teams in Conference USA in tempo. Middle Tennessee has really been playing good defense in the conference slate. They rank third in defensive efficiency in Conference USA. Middle Tennessee has seen their last three games go far under this total.

UTEP could only score 59 points the first time these two teams played. Outside of Souley Boum no one scored more than 8 points for the Miners. UTEP is very inconsistent on offense. 

The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco is an excellent under venue. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility turned into a basketball setup with two games going on at once side by side.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Grand Canyon and Sam Houston State played two very low scoring games in the regular season.

Grand Canyon is an elite defense. The strength of their defense is defending the 3 point line. Sam Houston State takes a lot of 3's, but Grand Canyon ranks 4th in the country in 3 point defense. That plays into the hands of the Antelopes. 

Sam Houston State is a very good defense as well. The Bearkats force quite a few turnovers and Grand Canyon has turned it over quite a bit this year. That could lead to quite a few wasted possessions from Grand Canyon.

This is on a neutral floor where scoring is usually down a bit on the average.

The defenses are clearly better than the offenses in this matchup. 

Take the under here.

*4 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints take on the Quinnipiac Bobcats on Thursday evening in the MAAC Tournament. 

Siena plays at a slow pace. The Saints rank 243rd in average possession length in the country. Quinnipiac does play quicker at 90th in the country in overall pace. 

Both of the regular season games between these two saw a late foul fest make the final total be much higher than it should have been. 

This game is played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. The under is 13-5 in MAAC Tournament games played there. The 5 games that have gone over the total here have only gone over by an average of 4.6 points per game. Many of the unders have gone far below the total. The shooting backdrop here at this large venue is clearly a problem.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green play at the slowest pace of any team in the country. They rank #358 out of 358 teams in terms of pace of play. North Texas is extremely well coached by Grant McCasland. The Mean Green are excellent defensively, and they do a great job of taking care of the basketball and winning low scoring games. They force teams to play their style of basketball. 

Rice was blown out by North Texas twice this year. The Owls scored 43 and 44 points in those contests. The Owls have slowed their pace of play down drastically in recent weeks. 

In conference action, N Texas was the slowest team in terms of average possession length, and Rice was the third slowest in Conference USA.

The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco is an excellent under venue. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility turned into a basketball setup with two games going on at once side by side.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morgan State Bears and the South Carolina State Bulldogs meet Thursday night in the MEAC Tournament. 

South Carolina State has improved immensely on the defensive end late in the season. Year over year their defensive improvement has been massive as well. This team was ranked #339 in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They sit at #158 this season. In 8 of South Carolina State's last 9 games the final total has been 142 points or less.

Morgan State averaged 1.06 points per possession in the MEAC last year. They averaged only 0.978 points per possession league play this year. They take a lot of bad jump shots and that has pulled down their efficiency.

Norfolk Scope Arena has been a good under venue. It has seen about 56% of games in the postseason go under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles and Creighton Blue Jays played twice this year and the two games couldn't have been more different. The first game was played at a slow pace and went into double overtime and still finished at only 144 points (116 after regulation). The second game was a fast pace and 165 total points.

Creighton is probably in the NCAA Tournament, but a bad performance here could leave them at least somewhat nervous on Selection Sunday. The Blue Jays would prefer this game be played at a slower pace, and I think they'll work hard to do that in this one. Creighton ranks first in the Big East in defensive efficiency, which likely would surprise a lot of people.

Creighton is 9th in the country in 2 point FG percentage defense. They were first in the Big East. In their most recent matchup, Marquette went an insane 60.4% from 2 point range against them. Creighton allowed just 44.1% in the Big East overall. 

Marquette allowed only 46% on 2 point FG in Big East play, but in their most recent game Creighton shot a lights out 62.9% from 2 point range. 

I don't expect these shooting numbers to show up again. This is at Madison Square Garden where the under has been money over the long term. In fact, in postseason games the under sits at almost exactly 60% at MSG in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Toledo is a great offensive team. The Rockets have put up a lot of points in quite a few MAC games this year. Central Michigan did slow them down at Toledo recently holding them to just 68 points.

The two games between these two in the regular season were 136 and 134 points total. 

There is real blowout potential in this game, and in a conference tournament setting if you are up big many teams will slow things down and rest the legs a bit to be ready for the next day. 

This game is played at the Cleveland Cavs home arena. The under is 35-26 in games here for the MAC Conference Tournament. 

An early tipoff is another bonus in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags and St. Peter's Peacocks meet tonight in the MAAC Tournament. These two teams have a long history of low scoring meetings. 

Here are the last 5 meetings with their combined total and then their expected total based on the quality of shots from Shot Quality in ( ):

112 points (115 points)

105 points (117 points) 

105 points (111 points) 

115 points (112 points) 

99 points (No shot quality data available)

129 points (118 points)

98 points (116 points)

The last six meetings have brought 5 games going under this total and 1 that went over. None of the games have a Shot Quality number higher than this total.

This game is played at Boardwalk Hall which has been a great under venue. These two teams met here last year and the total was 99 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners rely heavily on steals and quick scores since their halfcourt offense isn't very good. 

Old Dominion doesn't turn the ball over very much at all. The Monarchs run a very conservative slow paced offensive attack. 

Old Dominion shot a whopping 47 free throws in the first meeting with UTEP. They rely heavily on free throws. We have seen the officiating crews in general call less fouls in these conference tournament games. ODU will get to the line plenty, but it should be way down from last game.

The first game stayed under this number in regulation even with the massive amount of free throws.

This game is played at The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. There are multiple games going on at once with a YMCA/Rec League feel and some very tough shooting backdrops. The under is 30-15 in the 45 Conference USA Tournament games played here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Early in the season, Rice was playing at a top 75 tempo in the country. The Owls have slowed down their pace of play drastically late in the season. In the last few weeks, they are playing at a pace slower than the average tempo in the country. 

Charlotte was atrocious on defense earlier this year. They have been much better in recent weeks. The 49ers are coached by a defensive minded coach who wants the team to play slowly.

The first game between these two was 67-64.

This game is played at The Ford Center at the Star in Frisco. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. There are multiple games going on at once with a YMCA/Rec League feel and some very tough shooting backdrops. The under is 30-15 in the 45 Conference USA Tournament games played here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Butler plays at the 338th fastest pace of any team in the country. They are always very slow paced. The Bulldogs settle for far too many 3 point jumpers, and they are shooting just 29.2% from 3 in the Big East Conference. 

Xavier ranks first in the Big East in defensive rebounding. Butler shouldn't get many second chances here. The Musketeers have relied pretty heavily on getting to the free throw line, but Butler is pretty good at defending without fouling.

These two teams met last year in the first round of the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden. The final was 70-69 in overtime. At the end of regulation the score was 59-59.

Madison Square Garden is a tremendous under venue in college sports. The under is a whopping 69-45 in postseason games at MSG when the total is set at 127.5 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of the regular season meetings between these two teams stayed below this posted total in regulation. The one finished at 145 with overtime. 

This game tips off at 9:30 am local time. That is an extremely early tipoff. Through the years, college games with very early tipoffs have trended under the total. There have been some worse shooting numbers in these games.

Most teams in the Big Sky are all about playing quickly, but Sacramento State has done a good job slowing things down and dictating the tempo this year. 

An early start and two teams who are inconsistent on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes have been better offensively this year, but John Dunne is a defensive-minded coach at heart. Marist is good at controlling the pace too, and they rank 222nd in the country in tempo.

Quinnipiac likes to play fast, but they rely on the outside shot a lot and Dunne's teams defend beyond the arc well.

Boardwalk Hall has been a great under venue in the postseason. This is a large gym with tough shooting backdrops. The under is 11-4 in the MAAC Conference Tournament here (started here in 2020). None of the four overs have gone over by more than 6.5 points. Several of the unders have gone far under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a miserable team. UTSA isn't much better. Two terrible teams playing on a neutral floor in the postseason has been a great under angle in the long run.

Southern Miss ranks about average in tempo. UTSA ranks slightly faster than average. Both teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in offensive efficiency. They also both rank in the bottom 100 in the country in getting to the free throw line. There will be a lot of mid range and long range jumpers taken in this game.

This one will be played in Frisco Texas at The Ford Center at The Star. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. It is a massive dome and Conference USA has been setting up curtains between two courts and multiple courts play at the same time. To say the least this is a very strange setup. The under is 25-13 in the 38 CUSA Tournament games played here. It has led to quite a few subpar shooting performances.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fairfield Stags rank last in the MAAC in overall tempo. Fairfield will slow the pace down in this win or go home game against the Canisius Golden Griffins. 

Fairfield hasn't had a game in their last 5 go over this totals number. Four of the five were 129 or lower. They have been much better defensively at the end of the season. They have also slowed down the tempo even more late in the season.

While Canisius prefers to play quickly, they were slowed down in both meetings against Fairfield. The teams both shot lights out in this game. I don't think it will happen again.

Boardwalk Hall has been a great under venue in the postseason. This is a large gym with tough shooting backdrops. The under is 11-4 in the MAAC Conference Tournament here (started here in 2020). None of the four overs have gone over by more than 6.5 points. Several of the unders have gone far under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd still play very fast, but they aren't nearly as efficient on offense as they were a couple years ago. Marshall is 205th in the nation in offensive efficiency.

FIU was 30th in the nation in tempo two years ago. They were 82nd last year. FIU ranks only 200th in tempo this year. FIU is 274th in offensive efficiency. I believe Jeremy Ballard knew he doesn't have great offensive talent this year so he changed up their style of play.

Both games in the regular season went under this total. 

This one will be played in Frisco Texas at The Ford Center at The Star. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice facility. It is a massive dome and Conference USA has been setting up curtains between two courts and multiple courts play at the same time. To say the least this is a very strange setup. The under is 25-13 in the 38 CUSA Tournament games played here. It has led to quite a few subpar shooting performances.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison have been one of the top two defenses in the Summit League each of the last four seasons. North Dakota State games have been solid under bets because they provide much better resistance than the majority of teams in this league. Additionally, N Dakota State is good at slowing down the pace of the game.

Oral Roberts and North Dakota State played twice in the regular season. Those games finished at 143 and 136 points total. This game will be played at a neutral site where the under has had the edge. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This isn't an easy bet to make. Both of these teams play fast and they have had some very high scoring games. The two games between these teams this year finished at 149 and 173 points.

Why am I betting this? The angles suggest a number this high in conference tournaments with a neutral court are very tough to reach. This arena in Washington DC is 8-2 to the under thus far in postseason play. It is playing as an under venue. 

Just blindly betting postseason neutral court unders of 150 or more is hitting nearly 55% in the last 8 years. 

Charleston plays extremely fast, but they aren't always efficient on offense. They are only mediocre shooters from long range. 

The last game between these two teams featured an epic foul fest late that led to 60 points in the final 10 minutes. That made the game much higher scoring than it should have been.

This one is difficult to bet, but in the long run these spots have been good.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Hartford Hawks and Albany Great Danes met twice in the regular season.  Those games finished at 123 and 122 total points. Those games should have been even lower according to Shot Quality based on the types of shots taken by both teams. The two games should have finished with 112 and 105 points according to Shot Quality.

This is a postseason contest, and the win or go home mindset usually slows the game down a bit. Both of these teams like to play slowly to begin with.

It's really important to note that neither of these teams gets to the line much at all. Both regular season games featured less than 20 combined free throw attempts.

I expect another low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are allowing 1.003 points per possession on the road this year. They are allowing 0.912 points per possession at home. Rutgers has a terrific home court advantage and a lot of that comes from their ability to slow teams down and play excellent defense at home.

Penn State won the first matchup 66-49. Shot Quality says based on the shots taken in that game the final should have been 57-56. That was no fluke that the game was extremely low scoring.

Penn State ranks 355th out of 358 teams in the country in tempo on offense. Rutgers ranks 296th in overall tempo in the country. The pace should be extremely slow here.

Neither team fouls much and both teams are good at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds go to Weber State to take on the Wildcats on Saturday evening. These teams rank 112th and 63rd in the country in tempo, so the pace should be very quick in this one. The first meeting between them was 92-84 Weber State. Shot Quality believes the game should have been 86-77, which is still far above this total.

Weber State ranks 354th in the country in 3 point defense. Southern Utah puts up a lot of 3's and they are shooting 37.6% from 3 in Big Sky Conference play. Southern Utah has scored 79 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games.

Weber State's offense has some big edges in this game. The Wildcats are efficient near the hoop and Southern Utah isn't good defending at the rim. The Wildcats also are good in transition and Southern Utah's transition defense has been a weakness this year. 

An up and down pace should be expected here. Both teams are solid at the line and get to the line quite a bit.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is the final game of the regular season for two teams who have had very disappointing seasons this year. Oregon State was in the Elite 8 last year and now they are 3-26 this season. Unreal. The Beavers defense was #106 in the country last year, but they are an awful #339 out of 358 in the country this year.

Washington excels at getting quick points in transition, especially off steals. They are 7th in quick points off steals according to Haslametrics. Oregon State is 317th at preventing those. Look for a lot of run outs for Washington. The Huskies are elite on the offensive glass, and Oregon State has been terrible on the defensive boards. While Washington isn't very good from 3 point range, they are great near the hoop, and Oregon State has virtually no interior defense.

Oregon State is 7th in the country in second chance percentage, so the Beavers should get a bunch of second chance points on a Washington defense that struggles to rebound out of the zone.

Late season games between two mediocre or poor teams have been good over bets in the last 15 years. This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under is now 71-38 at Enterprise Arena in the postseason. The MVC tournament has been a bunch of very low scoring games. This is a hockey arena that has tough shooting backdrops. 

Both games in the regular season between these two teams stayed under this total. These two teams both prefer to play slowly, and I think with this game being win or go home it is very likely to be slow as far as the tempo.

Both teams usually shoot the ball pretty well from 3, but we've seen much lower than normal shooting percentages in this arena in the past.

Take the under.