Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Golden State Warriors are coming off their big revenge win over the Houston Rockets on Friday night. Golden State has been extremely motivated for multiple games this week. This is a spot where they might be less motivated to kill the Magic.

Instead of taking Orlando though, I'm taking the under. Golden State's defense has been much better of late. Golden State now leads the NBA in defensive efficiency. Yes, the Warriors can pile up the points, but they can play defense as well. 

Orlando is middle of the pack in defensive efficiency, and they are subpar in offensive efficiency. 

Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. That's a pretty decent edge, and when you combine it with other factors, I like this under.

The under is a perfect 4-0 in Golden State's 4 road games on Sunday this year. The under is 3-0 in their 3 games as a double digit road favorite on Sunday. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 19-0 angle. 

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* These are two rare teams in the Big Sky that are actually slow paced. Most teams here like to play high scoring games, but these two are better suited for lower scoring contests. 

The price move upward here is enough for me to play back on the under. I had this one at 139. I think Montana wins with their defense and neither team shoots it very well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* There should be plenty of fireworks for this one. Portland State and Montana State both love to run, and I expect Portland State to put up a huge number on this terrible Montana State defense. Portland State could easily score 90 plus in this one, and Montana State is a good enough long range shooting team that they should be able to put up something in the upper 70's at a minimum. Fast paced and two good offenses. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two teams who have no cohesion on offense here. UTEP and UTSA played a sloppy game that finished at 122 recently. I don't see any reason to expect much different in this one.

UTEP has averaged 0.88 points per possession in the conference. The tempo should stay slow thanks to UTSA looking to slow it down all the time.

I had this one at 128. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys are playing about as fast as anyone in the country right now. Wyoming is playing at 78.8 possessions per game inside the conference. That's in the top five in the nation in that period. Wyoming is getting a shot up on average in less than 14 seconds per trip. 

New Mexico is averaging 71.6 possessions per game in the league. The Lobos like to play quickly as well, and this game should be a track meet.

New Mexico is also first in the nation in free throws attempted this year. Wyoming fouls more than the average team. Wyoming ranks in the top 50 in free throws attempted, and New Mexico fouls more than the average team in the country as well.

The spread here sits at 7.5 or 8 points, which is a perfect spread for the possibility of a fouling fest late in the game. These have become an epidemic in college basketball this year, and that could send this thing really high by the end.

I had this total at 163. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Elon and William & Mary played an 88-85 game earlier this year. Elon is the type of team that plays to the pace of their opponent. Their opponent just happens to be the fastest paced team in the conference here.

William & Mary is a good shooting team, and they are very inefficient on defense. Elon's three point shooting has been good of late, and I think they will shoot it well against this poor William & Mary defense.

Look for a fast paced games with solid shooting numbers on both sides.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rice Owls are going to force the issue here. Rice is an extremely efficient offense, and I expect them to bounce back from a poor offensive performance in their last game. Rice was shut down by LA Tech, who has the best defense in the conference. Now, they play against a weak team in Southern Miss.

Southern Miss has played much faster since point guard Khari Price came back five games ago. Price is the team's best player, and they seem comfortable running with him at the helm.

We get a number that is a little too low based on Rice's poor offensive performance last time out.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies have a really inefficient offense. NIU is averaging only 0.96 points per possession, which ranks them 307th best out of 351 teams in the nation. On the other side, NIU is great on defense. The Huskies are allowing only 0.906 points per possession inside the MAC thus far, which makes them easily the best defense in the MAC.

Ohio is now without star forward Antonio Campbell. Campbell is out for the year due to a foot injury. Campbell was the conferences best player, and this team will really be hurting without him. They lost at home to Eastern Michigan by 4 without Campbell and then were blown away at Akron. Ohio still does have the second best defense in the MAC though, and they are up against a weak offense.

Expect a sloppy game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bearcats are a unique team. They usually slow the game down, but when playing against weaker opponents they like to take the chance to run and pile up the points. 

Cincinnati's overall average tempo is 65.6 per game. Let's look at examples of their running up the score on bad defenses. They scored 96 points in a 72 possession game against Texas Southern. They scored 119 in a blistering fast 82 possession game against Fairleigh Dickinson. They scored 92 points in a 73 possession game against Tulane the first time around.

Tulane is the worst defense in the league, and it isn't even close. Tulane is also playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the American Athletic. 

Cincinnati should continue their trend of piling up the points on bad defenses. 

I had this one at 144.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Florida Bulls have changed their style of play under interim coach Murray Bartow. Orlando Antigua had the team stalling and playing only in the halfcourt, but under their new coach USF is looking to get out in transition. Their last three games have had a tempo about 4-5 possessions above their previous season average. The change is significant.

Tulsa is one of those rare teams in the American Athletic that would prefer to run. Most teams in this league look to slow the game down, but in this one Tulsa should get the chance to run like they prefer to. The Golden Hurricane are coming off an 89 point performance against the worst defense in the conference (Tulane). They now play the second worst defense in the conference in USF.

The oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough based on the new tempo for USF. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers are first in the Big Ten in tempo. Purdue has a tremendous frontcourt, and it is hard to imagine Penn State stopping them much at all down low. Swanigan and Haas should have a big day for the Boilers. 

Penn State is using only 16 seconds per possession on offense, so the Nittany Lions are flying on offense as well. The Nittany Lions aren't as efficient on offense, but I think the tempo will be enough to push this game past the posted total.

With my expected tempo here being 73 possessions, a total of 145.5 is a solid value. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA on ESPN CASH* The Los Angeles Lakers lost 115-108 in Indiana earlier this year. I think we see another very high scoring game (probably even higher than the first meeting) on Friday night in Los Angeles.

Indiana's home road splits are really interesting. The over is 11-10 in their home games this year. The over is 13-7 in their 20 road games this year. Why is that? Well, Indiana is 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency when playing at home this year. On the road, Indiana ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 1.004 points per possession at home. They are giving up 1.111 points per possession on the road. That's a massive difference. 

In the last ten games, both the Pacers and the Lakers rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In that same period, both of these teams rank in the top 14 in offensive efficiency. 

The over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these two. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars play at the 330th fastest tempo out of 351 teams in the country. Houston will walk it up and try to force Memphis to play their tempo in this game. 

Memphis prefers to play quickly, but I don't think they are very good at imposing their will in a tempo war. Memphis was dragged into three slow paced games recently by SMU, South Carolina, and UConn. 

Defensively, Memphis is only allowing 0.90 points per possession in the conference. Houston is only allowing 0.98 per possession. That's two very good defenses, and in a game I expect to be played at a relatively slow pace, I'm liking the value here.

I had this one at 137 points. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks and Cal Bears have what I believe are the two best defenses in the Pac 12 (Arizona may factor in there as well). Oregon is actually playing slower than the average team in the country now. Cal is 303rd in tempo out of 351, and the Bears will certainly want to slow this game down.

Cal is much weaker offensively this year, because they are too reliant on Ivan Rabb. The outside game has been inconsistent from Cal, and Oregon has the length on the inside to slow down Rabb.

I had this game lined at 127 points. I expect both defenses to give their opposition a hard time in the halfcourt sets tonight.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Not many teams are playing any defense in the Summit League this year. North Dakota State is the rare team who always works hard on defense though. North Dakota State will want to slow this game down and use their strong defense to beat a very good Fort Wayne team here. 

North Dakota State was in the same position last year when they hosted a very good Fort Wayne team, and North Dakota State stalled the game out and won 62-46. I don't expect a score that low in this one, but I do think 152.5 is too high.

The home team controls the pace more often than not, and North Dakota State can't let this become a track meet. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints will be without their best guard, Marquis Wright for this game. He is suspended for this contest. Siena is also without star guard Nico Clareth. The Saints have slowed down their pace without Clareth, and I think they'll play really slowly tonight with Wright also missing.

St. Peter's is the slowest paced team in the MAAC. They are going to want a very slow paced game. They also rank first in the league in defensive efficiency. Siena ranks second in this category. 

In the last 7 games between these two teams, only one of them has gone over the posted total. I like this to be a sloppy game with Siena short handed and St. Peter's happy to win a low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a numbers play based on recency lowering this total too much. SIU Edwardsville has had some terrible shooting numbers in recent games. They have shot no better than 30% from 3 point range in any of their last five games. In 3 of the five, they have shot 25% or worse from 3.  SIU Edwardsville is shooting 30.2% from 3 on the year, and I would expect them to have some better shooting numbers coming soon just based on regression to the mean.

SIU Edwardsville is third in the nation in free throw attempts, and Southeast Missouri State fouls a bunch. In fact, both teams in this matchup do a ton of fouling, and that could be key with a spread set right around the key fouling marks at the end of the game. What do I mean by that? Games often become foul fests late when one team is ahead by 6 to 10 points, and this spread falls right in that range. In those games, the over has a little extra value to me.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins have played 18 games this year. Only 3 of them have gone over 150 points in regulation. Maryland is a really good defensive team and they are giving up only 0.96 points per possession inside the Big Ten. 

Iowa has played fast in the conference, but they have also played Purdue twice. Purdue is the fastest paced team in the league. Those two games finished at 156 and 161 points. Maryland isn't going to play at all like Purdue did, and yet this total isn't much lower.

Maryland is the 11th fastest team in the Big Ten. The Terrapins will slow the game down and try to win with their defense. Iowa doesn't really have good scoring options outside of Peter Jok. I don't see Iowa lighting up this defense.

A close hard fought game that stays under the total.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The LaSalle Explorers have been shooting lights out of late. There's no doubt this team is improved when it comes to shooting the ball, but they aren't as good as they have shot lately. 

LaSalle has been slowing down the tempo of late. They are playing at only 67.8 possessions in the conference. Davidson is playing at exactly the same pace. We shouldn't see either team forcing the tempo here. 

The perception of Davidson is that of a team that shoots the ball extremely well and doesn't defend. That isn't the case this year. Davidson is much improved on defense and their shooting numbers are way down across the board. They are also playing a little more than 2 possessions slower than last year.

I think this game plays to a pace of about 67 possessions. For this one to get over the posted total, there would have to be some really good shooting numbers. 

I had this one at 149 points. Take the under big. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Jose State Spartans are averaging 3 more possessions per game this year than they did last season. This San Jose State team has picked up the pace and once they start knocking some shots down they are going to be a good over team.

San Jose State has been poor on offense as far as efficiency overall this year, but in their last game they scored 1.31 points per possession at Air Force. The Spartans have some young guys who have a reputation for being shooters, and they are starting to produce. I think it is a good buy low time for this offense being able to score.

Wyoming averaged 66 possessions per game last year in the Mountain West Conference. They are averaging a whopping 79 possessions per game this year. This team is running and gunning, and I see no slowing them down here. Wyoming has played three of their last six games at a tempo of 82 possessions or faster. That ranks in the top three in the nation.

It isn't often that you'll find a total of only 152 with a projected tempo of almost 80 possessions, but that is what we have here. 

I had this one at 157 points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave are just awful on defense. Tulane ranks 301st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Tulane continues to run though. They are playing faster than anyone else in the American Athletic Conference. The Green Wave are averaging 72.4 possessions per game inside the conference.

Tulane also fouls more than any other team in the conference. That's great news for Tulsa, since they get to the line at a high rate, and they shoot an amazing 81% from the line in the conference. Tulsa should get a bunch of free points from the stripe in this one.

Tulsa has been slowed down by most teams they have played of late, and that gives us value on the over. Tulane will allow Tulsa to get out in transition as they normally like to do.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are allowing only 0.881 points per possession on their home floor this year. Chris Beard is doing an amazing job with this Red Raiders team. They are buying in on the defensive end in a big way. West Virginia scored only 66 points in regulation at Texas Tech. Kansas State scored only 65 points at Texas Tech. 

TCU gave up 1.10 points per possession in conference last year. This year, Jamie Dixon has them playing some great defense. They rank 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency and they are allowing only 1.03 points per possession in conference play. 

Texas Tech is averaging only 64.5 possessions per game, so they are definitely slowing the game down. Look for this to be a very close game.

Both teams foul less than the average team in the country.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I developed a system I've had my eye on lately where I look to play the under with a large spread and a high total. This one fits the system. 

In the long run, this has been a solid winning system. The large spread is important because it usually takes excessive fouling late in the game out of the picture.

Oklahoma's offensive efficiency has tanked this year, and these two have a history of playing lower than expected games against each other.

Three times these teams met last year, and the highest total was 138 points.

Both teams are much more consistent on defense than offense. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks and Florida Gators are both elite defenses. South Carolina ranks second in the country in defensive efficiency. Florida ranks 21st. Both defenses will give the opposing offense a lot of trouble in this contest.

While both offenses play somewhat fast, the two defenses are excellent at slowing down the pace of the game just by how strong they are defensively. 

Last year's game between these two had the game at 64-64 before OT. The defenses are even better this year, and I think this line is a few points too high.

I had this one at 131.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Phoenix Suns. San Antonio has historically been a great under bet in this situation. 

The Spurs have an elite defense, and when they are motivated, that defense looks even better. San Antonio ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year. 

It may surprise you to hear that Minnesota ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Timberwolves are starting to buy into what Tom Thibodeau is selling them on that end of the floor.

Minnesota has slowed down their pace of play drastically as well. The Wolves are 28th in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games. The Spurs are 26th. 

We have a total of 202.5 with two defenses playing great and with two teams who consistently slow the pace down.

I think the Spurs hold the Timberwolves to a low number here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears defense has been exceptional this year. Baylor ranks sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. Combine that with the fact that Baylor ranks 326th in the nation in tempo, and Baylor holds teams to some very low point totals. 

Texas is without two of their best guards (Tevin Mack and Kendal Yancy) and those two will be badly missed against this defense. The Longhorns offense has had trouble getting their act together all year, but this team is playing some very good defense. Texas is 26th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Look for Baylor to be the team in control in this one. The Bears want to play the game slowly, and they should get their way. I expect them to get out to a lead early and hold Texas to a low number here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks have excelled when it comes to slowing the game down and forcing the opponent to play their style. Monroe isn't any good on offense, and the only chance they have in games is to slow it down and make it sloppy. 

In their last nine games, LA Monroe hasn't had a game go above this posted total in regulation. In fact, only one of those nine games has been above 134 in regulation. Monroe is averaging only 0.878 points per possession inside the Sun Belt, which is easily the worst offensive mark in the league. GA Southern is the number one ranked team in the conference as far as defensive efficiency. 

GA Southern does play faster, but this will be the first team they have played in the conference that wants to slow the pace down. I don't think Monroe will let this be a track meet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Wizards host the Portland Blazers in an early tip game for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Washington and Portland both started the year by playing terribly on the defensive end. Things have looked better from them both defensively of late.

Washington is 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past nine games. Portland is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the NBA in the past 9 games. That's important because Washington is 18th and Portland is 27th on the season. Both teams have been putting more effort in on the defensive end.

These teams are a little above average offensively, but not elite. They both play just a tick faster than the average team in the NBA. 

A total of 220 is usually saved for games between teams that run like crazy and play almost no defense. I don't think that is the case here.

MLK Day early games have been solid under trends during the past ten years. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks meet early on Monday. These two teams have met twice this year and neither game has gotten even close to this posted total. The two games have been 198 and 200 (in overtime). 

This is an early start on MLK Day, which helps the under in my opinion. This is something that has shown to be true through the years. 

Atlanta ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency over the last eight games. The Knicks are in the middle of the pack. Both teams are middle of the pack or lower in offensive efficiency. Neither team is pushing the pace all that much.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Cal Poly tried to push the tempo some last year and it didn't work at all for them. The Mustangs are back to stalling again this year. UCSB is always happy to slow things down as well.

So far this year inside the conference, UCSB is averaging a miserable 0.83 points per possession. The Gauchos are very short handed and they have good scoring options other than Vincent. 

Look for this game to be played at a very slow pace. Without some far above average shooting numbers, I think it stays under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Brown Bears are the fastest paced team in the Ivy League. Brown will look to push the tempo all the time in this one. Brown ranks 52nd in the nation in overall tempo. The Bears also allow 1.142 points per possession which is one of the worst marks in the country. Clearly, Brown is a very bad defense.

Penn moves at an average pace on offense, but they have struggled shooting the ball of late. I think their shooting numbers will be a lot better against a team like Brown. 

Last year's meetings finished at 153 and 172 points. They were similar teams last year. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

Santa Clara is great at dictating tempo, and I think they'll do exactly that here. Pepperdine has been slowing down of late in terms of tempo. 

Santa Clara has one of the best defenses in the conference, and they never get to the free throw line. That's a great combination for under bettors. 

I had this number at 131 and I see there is a huge public/sharp split on the numbers here with the sharp bettors taking the under. I'll go that way as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rivalry game in Arkansas. The Little Rock Trojans play at the slowest pace of any team in the Sun Belt conference. Little Rock is going to slow this game down.

Arkansas State has tended to prefer slowing the game down this year as well, and I don't think they'll force the issue here. Arkansas State is much better on defense than they are on offense. The Red Wolves defense should give the Trojans offense a difficult task in this one.

I think it being a rivalry game helps the under here. The defenses get better in a game that means more, at least in general they do. 

I had this game at 131 points, so I see solid value. Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Missouri Tigers both want to run. This game will be played at a ridiculously fast pace. 

Arkansas has been 23rd fastest when it comes to average possession length this year. Missouri is 53rd quickest.

Missouri has decided to play much quicker of late. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 78.2 possessions per game in SEC play. Only three teams in the country have been faster during that time span. 

Both Arkansas and Missouri foul a lot. There should be a ton of trips to the charity stripe here. These two teams don't like each other, and the officials will likely want to have a quick whistle in this contest.

Missouri's offense has gotten a boost from Texas transfer Jordan Barnett being inserted into the lineup. Missouri has consistently pressed and played very fast when down in the second half, and I think they'll be down in the second half here. 

I had this projected at 153-154 points. The tempo should get us there.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes have carved out a nice gameplan inside the conference. They have decided to slow things down and use a strong defense to win low scoring contests. It has been working pretty well. 

James Madison has played their last four games at the following possessions (pace): 64, 64, 61, and 59. This one should be slow as well. Elon is playing much slower than last year, and the Phoenix aren't likely to push the pace too much here.

James Madison is the top ranked defense in the conference, and that defense should be tough for Elon to score on here. 

I see a close low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston Cougars are great at controlling the tempo of the game. Here, they play against a very quick team in William & Mary. I'm counting on C of C playing this game on their terms on their home court. 

College of Charleston's home game against William & Mary last year went nearly 20 points under this total. The C of C defense is the best in the conference. William & Mary excels at 3 point shooting, but C of C has the best 3 point defense in the country (opponents shooting only 27%).

This number is several points too high. I had this at 134. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida State Seminoles are much improved this year, and they are playing faster than ever. Florida State ranked 51st out of 351 teams last year in average possession length on offense. This year they rank 15th in that category. North Carolina is 10th.

This game should be an all out track meet. Last year's meeting between these two was 106-90 North Carolina, and that game saw a mind blowing 88 possessions. That is just about NBA pace right there (and the NBA plays more minutes obviously).

North Carolina can take advantage of Florida State's one major weakness. UNC is great on the offensive glass, and FSU is weak when it comes to defensive rebounding. 

I think Florida State's guards can do some damage here though, and I see both teams scoring a bunch.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iona Gaels have the best offense in the MAAC. Iona is averaging 1.124 points per possession inside the conference. Jordan Washington is arguably the best player in the conference, and he's surrounded by good guards as well. 

Quinnipiac is going to get a bunch of offensive boards in this one. Iona is weak on the defensive glass, and the Bobcats strength is second chance points. 

The tempo shouldn't be a problem here. Iona always wants to run, and Quinnipiac committed to a fast pace this year (a big change from the past), and they have stuck to it.

Iona has scored 87 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games.

I had this one at 162. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces have really struggled on offense this year. Evansville lost their two best offensive players from last year, and they are struggling in their half court sets. When the Purple Aces aren't getting to the line, they are in a lot of trouble on offense so far this year. They are averaging only 0.9 points per possession on offense so far this year in the MVC. Evansville is a strong defensive team though, and they definitely look to slow the game down.

Southern Illinois is better on defense than offense as well, and the Salukis have changed their tempo in a big way to where they are a slow paced team this season. 

Both of these teams have been playing a lot of sloppy low scoring games, and I think this projects as yet another one of those. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA on ESPN MONEY* The Utah Jazz play at the slowest pace in the NBA. Utah also ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. That can lead to some really low scores from their opponent. 

Utah hosts Detroit here, and you have to think Detroit is likely out of gas. They are on a long West Coast swing. They were blown away late last night at Golden State. Earlier this week they won in overtime in a draining game at Portland. This is the type of game where Detroit might shut it down early.

How about a really strong NBA system for this one as well? The under is hitting a whopping 60% of the time when we have a home favorite of double digits that has won only 2 of their last 4 games? 

The system sits at 286-189 (60.2%) to the under. 

I think Utah wins and Detroit puts up a low enough point total for us to cash the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies met a few weeks ago and the posted total was 205.5. Memphis has been playing some higher scoring games of late, so the total did need adjusted upward some. Still, a move to 217 is just too big. 

Memphis still is one of the 4 slowest paced teams in the NBA. They also rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Houston is unquestionably very good on offense, but this line has been inflated too much.

The referees are great for the under in this one. Eric Dalen has been the best under referee in the NBA in the past five years. The under is 55.03% in all his games. James Williams is the second best under guy (54.47%) and both of them are doing this game.

Look for fewer foul calls and I'll take the under in this game. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Portland Pilots have decided to slow things down in a big way during conference play. They are using 20.7 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. That is playing stall ball.

St. Mary's is the second slowest paced team in the country next to Virginia. The Gaels are consistently very slow. In fact, they have had only 3 games over 62 possessions all season (in 15 games). 

The tempo will be very slow here, which means the shooting numbers will have to be very high to pass up this kind of total. St. Mary's is excellent on offense, but their offense was less efficient on the road last year, and that trend has continued this season. Portland is a middle of the road offense, and St. Mary's is allowing only 0.96 points per possession. 

I had this one at 128. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats have been running and gunning this year. They were slowed down by St. Peter's, who is the slowest paced team in the league, in their last game. I don't think they'll get slowed down by Siena, who typically plays to the pace of their opponent.

Both of these teams are elite offensive rebounding squads. Getting second and third chances on the offensive end can really put points in the scoring column quickly. Both teams should be at the line quite a bit here because of those offensive rebounds as well.

This total has moved down a few points to where it is too low for me to pass up. I had this one at 153-154. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland State Vikings tried to push the tempo a little bit earlier this year, but it just didn't work. This team has been a slow it down team all through the years with Gary Waters as their coach, and they are back to slowing things down again now. 

Cleveland State is using 20.1 seconds of the 30 second shot clock so far in Horizon League play, which shows how much they are stalling. 

UIC is still pushing the pace, but they aren't going as fast as they were early in the year. Dikembe Dixson was their star player, and he went down for the season with an injury a few games ago. Since then, UIC's offensive efficiency has been awful, and their tempo has slowed some.

I had this one at 137.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The LaSalle Explorers were playing fast early in the season, but they have slowed down a bit of late. The same goes for Rhode Island, who played their first three games to a tempo of at least 70 possessions. Rhode Island has played to 69 possessions or fewer in their last 9 games though, and the Rams should control the tempo here.

Rhode Island ranks number one in defensive efficiency in the Atlantic Ten. EC Matthews is one of the best individual defenders in the country, and the team as a whole is very good on defense. Opponents are averaging less than 0.9 points per possession on them in the conference.

LaSalle's defense has improved inside the conference as well. I do think Rhode Island will score a solid amount here, but I expect the Rams to pick up a comfortable win because of their defensive intensity.

I had this total at 147 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish play at a slow tempo. They are using a whopping 20.7 seconds of the shot clock in ACC play so far. That's as slow as you will see anyone in the country play. 

Miami doesn't play fast at all either. The Hurricanes rank 310th out of 351 in the country in terms of tempo. Miami also ranks 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency. I'm counting on their defense to slow down the normally very efficient Notre Dame offense.

Both defenses rank in the top 15 in the country in least fouls committed. Neither team gets to the line very much either. 

With the spread being 2.5 or 3 here, this projects as a very close game where the foul fest can hopefully be avoided late. 

I had this one at 135.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston plays at the slowest pace of any team in the CAA. James Madison plays at the second slowest pace. Tempo won't be an issue here. This game will be played in the halfcourt as both teams walk it up and take their time consistently.

What about the defenses? These are the two best defenses in the CAA. Both teams are going to work really hard to get up shots here. 

Both offenses rank in the bottom half of the country in offensive efficiency as well, which is obviously a nice plus.

3 big factors working for us here

-The pace of the game

-The strength of the defenses

-The inefficiency of the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys have really changed up the way they play with a new coach at the helm this year. Wyoming was always one of the slowest paced teams in the country, and now the Cowboys are the fastest paced team in the Mountain West. In fact, Wyoming is playing at the sixth fastest tempo in the country overall (351 teams). 

Utah State isn't playing all that fast, but the Utes have an efficient offense and a subpar defense. Utah State has played two of their last four games over this posted total (one other was just one point short as well), and I believe this game should be a tight high scoring contest.

With the recent move to much more fouling late in the game, a spread sitting at 4.5 or 5 points is a good range where you can look for fouling late. That's an added bonus.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Drake Bulldogs have changed the way they play under Coach Jeff Rutter. He took over in the middle of the season, and their possessions per game are up by about 10 possessions since then. That's a massive change. We can see it in the scoring in their games. Their last seven games have all finished at 152 points or higher.

Now, they take on an Indiana State team that has typically been one of the faster paced teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. This should be an interesting matchup where both teams look to run. That doesn't happen in the MVC very often, and it is why this posted total is so low.

I had this one at 154 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This one is a numbers play for me. I believe this one should be lined at 147 points. Dayton's offense gets a nice boost here as Charles Cooke is expected back in the lineup. Dayton has been much more willing to run this year, and I think the tempo will be quick in this one. 

UMass is the fastest paced team in the Atlantic 10 by a wide margin so far this year. The Minutemen are using only 15.0 seconds of the shot clock on average this year. UMass' defense has been a major problem of late. They have allowed 89, 86, and 81 points in their last three games. 

I don't expect UMass to shoot a high percentage against the Dayton defense, but the tempo should be fast enough that it won't matter unless they shoot a terrible percentage.

Take the over.  

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs will be without LaMarcus Aldridge tonight. Milwaukee star Giannis Antetokounmpo is a gametime decision with the flu tonight. He missed last game. 

All three referees in this game have an impressive under record of at least 52.35% in the past five years. For Scott Twardowski, it is 55.63% unders. That's a big help in this one.

The Bucks and Spurs both rank in the bottom 6 in the NBA in tempo in their last six games. San Antonio also ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that span. The Spurs have turned up the defensive intensity a lot in recent weeks, and I'll be surprised if the Bucks don't struggle on offense here.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Georgia State Panthers are averaging 75.6 possessions per game inside the Sun Belt Conference thus far. They played quickly outside the conference, and now in the conference they have been even faster. 

Troy is a middle of the pack team in terms of tempo, but this Troy offense is light years better than it was last season. Troy averaged 0.972 points per possession last year, but this season so far they are averaging 1.047 points per possession. The Trojans are getting some terrific play from super sophomore Jordon Varnado. 

There are 12 teams in the Sun Belt and these two teams have fouled more than any other teams in the Sun Belt in their first two contests in the league. The tempo should be plenty fast enough, and the trips to the stripe are a big help.

The spread here is 6, so a foul fest late in the game could easily help us out. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The USC Trojans have been terrible on offense of late. They are averaging only 0.958 points per possession in Pac 12 play. They now play what is arguably the best defense in the conference in the Cal Bears. 

Cal is holding opponents to 0.912 points per possession on the season overall. The Bears have a lot of length and athleticism and they'll make most of USC's shots tough ones.

On offense, Cal slows the game down a lot. The Bears rank 250th in the nation overall in pace. Cal is only 156th in the nation in offensive efficiency.

Two teams who are much better on defense than offense.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star CBB Sunday Night Showcase* The Virginia Cavaliers have seen one total all year go past this posted number. That was their most recent game against Pittsburgh, where Pittsburgh unexpectedly torched this tremendous defense.

Tony Bennett is one of the best coaches in the country, and he will be all over this defense to improve after last week's poor performance. Virginia allowed 1.28 points per possession in that loss to Pittsburgh, which is totally unheard of for them. I think there will be extra intensity on the defensive end here for Virginia.

Every single Virginia total until that Pittsburgh game finished at 129 or lower so far this year. They are remarkably consistent at keeping the game down. They are actually even better on defense than last year, and they are slightly down on offense. Virginia played slow last year, but they are playing a full 3 possessions slower than that so far this year. 

Wake Forest has slowed down their pace of play some from last year, and I don't think they can force Virginia to run with them. Virginia plays their game regardless of the opponent. See their wins over Florida State, Iowa, and Louisville this year as examples of that.

I had this one at 128. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UIC Flames are a completely different team without star Dikembe Dixson who is out with a season ending injury. Without him, UIC's offense is stagnant and their tempo has had to slow down. 

UIC was playing at a top 25 tempo with Dixson in the lineup, but without him they are only barely in the top 100. The Flames have severe turnover problems also, so their offense isn't efficient at all now.

Oakland's defense may be the best in the Horizon League. The Golden Grizzlies are holding opponents to just 0.916 points per possession inside the conference. While Oakland still plays quickly, their tempo is definitely down from previous years.

With UIC's star out, I'm taking the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game was postponed yesterday due to the weather. I had a 4 star play on the under then. I'll make another 4 star play here today with the line just a tick higher. 

The Wofford Terriers are always one of the 50 slowest teams in the country. This is a team that always wants to slow the game down. Samford is a much improved team this year. Why are they improved? Their defense is a lot better than it was last year. The Bulldogs aren't giving up those easy baskets that they did last year.Samford is coming off a poor defensive effort last game though, and Coach Scott Padgett was disappointed in their defense last game. I think that means they'll show up with improved effort on that end in this game.

The two meetings last year were 133 and 153 points. The 153 saw very good shooting numbers send it over the total despite a relatively slow tempo. Wofford relies heavily on the 3 ball, and Samford defends beyond the arc very well. I think this total is at least 5 points too high. Take the under.

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave have one of the worst defenses in the country. Tulane is allowing 1.11 points per possession on the year as a whole. Inside the conference, they are giving up an insane 1.21 points per possession. Tulane can't grab a defensive rebound, and they put opponents on the line consistently. Those are both a major problem when going up against Memphis.

Memphis prefers to run, and they'll be able to against a Tulane team that is playing much faster this year. Memphis should have a huge game on the inside with the Lawson brothers doing some major damage in the paint here. 

Memphis puts up a big number and Tulane does enough to stay somewhat close. I think this gets to the mid 150's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Carolina Tar Heels and NC State Wolfpack both want to run as much as possible. With Dennis Smith, NC State is much better in transition than they have been in recent years. This game should be an all out track meet. 

North Carolina isn't the type of team to ever slow a game down, and the Tar Heels have plenty of firepower to put up a big number here. NC State's defense is no better than average. The Wolfpack are averaging 1.13 points per possession on offense, so their offense is tremendous. North Carolina is averaging 1.17 points per possession, and the Tar Heels should get a bunch of second chance points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Wildcats have an elite defense every year, and this year is no different. Sean Miller is a tremendous coach, and this Arizona team is playing a lot better in recent weeks. They are still a team that lacks depth, and that's part of the reason why they are playing a much slower tempo so far this year. 

Colorado isn't all that good on offense, but the Buffaloes have been very solid on defense this year. The Buffaloes are a team that generally plays to the pace of their opponent. Arizona is good at controlling tempo, so I think we see a game played in the halfcourt. I expect Colorado to struggle to get open looks here. 

I had this one at 130-131. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs have gotten nearly everyone to play a really low scoring game so far this year. Old Dominion is the perfect under team. They play at the 346th tempo out of 351 teams in the country. They have a terrible offense and a top 12 defense in the nation. They don't foul on defense and don't get to the line much on offense.

Western Kentucky prefers the slower tempo and they played a 60 possession game against St. Mary's earlier this year. That makes me think Old Dominion can slow this one way down. 

I had this game at 116. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* It's rare that you'll see a total of 160 in a game where you don't have two teams that run. Arizona State does play pretty quickly. They rank 67th in overall tempo this year. On the other side, Utah has been slowing down their pace of play in a big way in recent weeks. 

Utah started the season without forward David Collette, who is arguably the team's best player. The Utes have slowed down and worked it inside more since he has been back on the court. 

While Arizona State has been poor on defense this year, Utah ranks third in the Pac 12 in defensive efficiency. 

Like Utah, Colorado is a defensive minded team and their game against Arizona State finished 78-77. That game featured above normal shooting from both teams as well.

This one is just set too high to pass up. I see the proper total being about 154. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Furman Paladins and Chattanooga Mocs are very similar to what they were last year. These two teams met last year and the final totals were 116 and 125 points. 

Both of these teams like to play at a slow pace. The Mocs are the 9 point favorite here, and I do expect them to win. Chattanooga has shown multiple times this year that they do a good job of slowing things down when they have a lead late in the game.

Furman's defense is quite a bit better than last year, and Chattanooga is probably the best defensive team in the SoCon. 

I had this total at 132 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds have the worst defense in the Big Sky Conference. This is a conference where almost no one plays defense, so being the worst defense there is really hard to do. Southern Utah fouls as much as any team in the country. Southern Utah has shown over and over that if they are down late in the game they will foul down 10 or 15 and keep things going as long as possible. That's a big benefit when they are a 10 point underdog.

North Dakota loves to play fast, and Southern Utah will want to run as well. The pace here won't be an issue. With a lot of free throws and the pace, I'll take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers play a zone that slows the game down considerably. Coastal Carolina is in their first year in the Sun Belt Conference. I expect most teams to take some time to get accustomed to this unique zone. It also should be a little tricky for teams to travel all the way to Conway, South Carolina without coming out with a flat effort.

Arkansas State plays at a very slow pace for the year, and the Red Wolves are excellent on defense. Arkansas State tested themselves with a really tough non-conference schedule, and now they are dominating defensively inside the Sun Belt. I do think Coastal will have a hard time consistently scoring on them as well.

This should stay in the 130's. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Pepperdine Waves have played a really tough schedule so far this season. Pepperdine has been torched defensively by some tremendous offenses. Gonzaga and USC scored 93 and 90 points respectively.

Pepperdine's defense isn't good, but I don't think it is as bad as their numbers look so far this year. The Waves get a chance to go against arguably the weakest offense in the West Coast Conference here also, so that's a nice break.

San Diego is dead last in offensive efficiency in the WCC so far this year. The Toreros have almost no inside game, and that makes it tough to score consistently. San Diego will slow the pace of the game though, and with a total this high, that's important.

I had this one at 138, and I like this as a good under spot.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida State Seminoles are playing at the 15th quickest tempo in the nation when looking at their average possession length on offense. Virginia Tech is 47th quickest. There should be a really fast tempo for this one. 

Both of these teams get to the line a lot, and they both shoot 70.6% from the charity stripe. Both VA Tech and FSU are playing quicker on offense than they did last year, and the two meetings between these two last year were 156 points and 181 points.

I think we see 76 possessions or so, and that makes me like the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Illinois State Redbirds and Indiana State Sycamores are similar in that they are much more efficient on defense than offense. These two will both rank near the top in the Missouri Valley Conference when it comes to defensive efficiency. 

Last year, these two teams met 3 times, with the final totals being 142, 128, and 122 points. Both teams are playing slower so far this year, and normally the tempo of the game slows down in conference action. 

The two defenses should have the upper hand and make every shot difficult throughout in this contest.

Barring a better shooting afternoon from both teams, I think this game stays at about 130 points or even a little lower. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats rank 34th in the nation in overall tempo. Manhattan ranks 63rd (out of 351). Both teams certainly prefer to play fast, and this one should be played in transition throughout.

Quinnipiac has an odd strategy where they crash the offensive boards so much that if the defense gets the rebound, they can get a quick bucket in transition quite a few times. Manhattan commits the second most fouls of any team in the country, so Quinnipiac should live at the line in this one.

Manhattan has given up some huge point totals this year, and Quinnipiac has been consistently putting up big numbers at home. The Bobcats defense isn't any good either though, and Manhattan should score plenty here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star TGIF NBA MONEYMAKER* The Minnesota Timberwolves have finally started to play some defense. Tom Thibodeau is known as a great defensive mind, and it was only a matter of time. Minnesota ranks sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. Washington actually ranks fifth in defensive efficiency during that period.

Washington ranks in the top ten in tempo, but Minnesota has slowed down a lot of late. The Timberwolves rank 28th in the NBA in tempo in their last five contests. They seem to be slowing down and playing better defense at the same time, which certainly makes some sense.

Another reason for this play is the referees assigned to the game. Eric Dalen is the main ref here and for his career the under is at 55.06% in his games. The other two refs combine for a 53% under record as well.

This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Santa Clara Broncos rank 343rd in the country (out of 351 teams) in terms of tempo. Santa Clara is slowing things down and slowing their opponent down on the defensive end as well.

Santa Clara is putting up a bunch of three pointers on the season. They are shooting 35.9% from 3 point range. One thing that does is it really limits the amount of trips to the free throw line they receive. The Broncos are 347th in free throws attempted in the country, so they are almost never getting to the line.

Portland has decided to change the way they play. The Pilots started the year by running and gunning, but they have backed off on the tempo front in a big way. Portland has averaged 63 possessions per game in regulation in their last five games. I don't think they'll push the pace here either.

Both of these teams take a lot of 3's, so if they are red hot from long range this one will lose, but I have to take my chances when these two teams play this slowly and the number is five points off my total of 131 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pacific Tigers have decided they need to slow their tempo down as the season has moved along. The team doesn't have enough weapons to play the fast style that Damon Stoudamire wants to play just yet. Stoudamire has decided to work the shot clock with this team and look to win lower scoring games.

San Diego has always wanted to play low scoring contests the last few years. The Toreros are more competitive this year, but they still play slowly. 

In their two WCC games, San Diego is on average using up 20.5 seconds of the 30 second shot clock. Pacific is using 18.2 seconds of the clock (that includes a game against Gonzaga). 

I had this number at 132. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers have played a lot of high scoring games this year, but I believe that is deceptive. Memphis has played against a bunch of teams that love to run. Memphis played against Oklahoma, Iowa, Savannah State, and UT Rio Grande Valley. Those teams all love to run. That has pushed Memphis' pace numbers and scoring numbers much higher than they should be.

Look at Memphis' tempo in their last two games against SMU and South Carolina, two teams who like to slow the game down. Memphis played to an average of only 63 possessions in those games.

UConn will slow the game down and their strong defense should get Memphis' offense trouble. The Huskies offense is a mess, and they aren't efficient at all.

Of UConn's 12 games against Division 1 opponents, only 3 of them have gone over this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels are playing much quicker in their last few games. Marvin Menzies has talked quite a bit recently about wanting to win games in transition. They did exactly that against Wyoming in their last game. I expect them to try to do the same here. 

Boise State is averaging 71.1 possessions per game, so they like to move quickly as well. The Broncos also get to the line a lot and send their opponents to the charity stripe at a very high rate. UNLV is a team that ranks in the top 25% in the country in trips to the line, so I expect a lot of free throw attempts for the Rebels.

This is a game that I expect to get to at least 150 points with both offenses moving at a quick pace.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play SMASHER* The Washington State Cougars prefer to run, but they have shown on multiple occasions this year that they can be slowed down. New Orleans, Idaho, Santa Clara, and Sacramento State have all slowed the tempo down against them in recent weeks.

Oregon State is expected to be without Tres Tinkle again in this one. Oregon State recently changed the way they play. Coach Wayne Tinkle said he wants the team to play like they did two years ago. They are playing a zone defense and slowing things down drastically on offense. 

Oregon State's game against very fast USC was only 133 points. Their game against the elite offense of UCLA only finished at 139 points. 

Go back to two years ago when Oregon State was playing the way they are now. The two meetings between these two teams in that year finished at 109 points (only 57 possessions) and 105 points (only 59 possessions). 

I had this number at 127 and I believe this will be yet another really ugly low scoring game between these two teams.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TAKEDOWN* The SMU Mustangs are great at controlling the pace of the game. SMU has played four straight games at a pace of 62 possessions or less.

Both SMU and Temple are more efficient on defense than offense. These are two teams who play very good halfcourt defense. I expect both offenses to have to work hard to get shots, and that will take quite a bit of time off the clock each time.

Both of these teams are excellent at defending without fouling, which is obviously important for an under bet.

In SMU's last 8 games, they have held each of their opponents to 60 points or less. That's an impressive number, and I think it has a good chance of continuing here.

My total for this one was 127 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Tech Hokies like to push the tempo. Virginia Tech has some very good guards, and they'll be happy to run with NC State in this one. 

NC State is playing much faster this year, and it is almost all because of Dennis Smith. Smith is a tremendous freshman who you will be hearing a bunch about over the years. He has elite quickness and his shot is improving. NC State has played three of their last five games at a pace of 80 possessions or quicker. Virginia Tech has played each of their last four games at a pace of 71 possessions or faster. 

Both of these teams are much more efficient on offense than defense relative to the average as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavs have played 13 games this year. The highest final total in a Virginia game so far this year was 129 points. That's truly remarkable. Virginia turns every game into a low scoring game with their tempo (slowest in the country) and their defense (number 2 in the nation in defensive efficiency). 

Pittsburgh has been playing to the pace of their opponent this year. Kevin Stallings' teams have done that for many years at Vanderbilt, and they are at it again this year. Pittsburgh has played a bunch of fast paced teams this year, but they will get slowed down here.

Pittsburgh relies a lot on free throw attempts for their offense, but Virginia does a great job defending without fouling.

Look for a tight game and one that stays around 120 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Drake Bulldogs are playing much faster now than they did early in the year. They got a new coach six games ago. Drake's average tempo before that game ranked among the 30 slowest teams in the country. In the six games since the change, they rank among the 30 fastest teams in the country. It's a huge change and the oddsmakers haven't caught up to this change quite yet.

Wichita State is playing much faster than they did a year ago. The Shockers are averaging 3 more possessions than last year. Additionally, Wichita State was first in the nation in defensive efficiency last year, and this year they have dropped to 29th. What about on offense? Wichita State is actually better this year. They were 67th on offense last year and 34th this year.

Drake will push the pace and Wichita State will torch this terrible Drake defense. I'll be surprised if Wichita State doesn't score at least 90 points. 

I had this one at 153 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Butler/Villanova CASH* The Butler Bulldogs host Villanova in a huge Big East clash. Villanova probably isn't getting the national headlines that they should be at this point. While all the talk is about the young stars at Kentucky, Kansas, and UCLA, all Villanova does is keep winning games. These are the defending champs, and they won't be easy to unseat. 

Villanova once again has a tremendous defense, and they are once again slowing the tempo down and limiting turnovers. Villanova is actually playing 1.3 possessions per game slower than last year. Their offensive efficiency is down just a tick without Arcidiacano. 

Butler is playing one possession slower as well. The Bulldogs were 97th in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 39th in that category this year. 

Last year's meeting at Hinkle Field House was a 55-50 defensive battle. This one won't be that low, but this total is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star College Hoops Total DOMINATION* The UCF Knights are playing some tremendous defense under new coach Johnny Dawkins this year. UCF ranks first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Tacko Fall is 7'6 and he stands in the middle of the zone on defense, which obviously makes this a hard team to get to the hoop against. UCF is allowing opponents to shoot only 36.3% on two point field goals. That is easily best in the country. 

East Carolina's offense hasn't been efficient at all this year. The Pirates are averaging only 0.944 points per possession on the year (1.02 last year). East Carolina scored only 35 points in a home loss to College of Charleston a couple weeks ago. They scored only 44 points in their last game against SMU. East Carolina should have a lot of trouble scoring here.

East Carolina's defense is 10th in effective field goal percentage defense, so they are very good as well. 

Both of these teams rely on free throws a lot on offense, but these two teams rank in the top ten in the country in defending without fouling.

Both of these teams play slow and I expect a tempo of somewhere around 63 or 64 possessions. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Iona Gaels played a little slower in the non-conference slate, but I fully expect them to go back to their fast paced ways inside the MAAC. Fairfield is now running and gunning all the time. Fairfield has played to an average of 75 possessions in their last five games. Who is going to slow this game down?

The only way this one stays under is some bad shooting numbers. Iona's offense is probably the best in the conference, and the Gaels are never very good on defense. 

Last year's two meetings between these teams finished at 178 and 189 points. This might not be that high, but I think it will be 160 or higher. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The College of Charleston Cougars and Delaware Blue Hens have the same goal. They both want to win a low scoring game with their strong defense. Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in the country in pace. I expect less than 60 possessions in this game, which would put it as one of the slowest games of the week in college basketball.

Charleston and Delaware both rank in the bottom half of the country in offensive efficiency. Delaware is in the bottom 25 in the country. Charleston is a top 15 defense in the nation, so it is hard to imagine Delaware scoring much here. 

Delaware has scored 59, 53, 63, and 56 points in their last four games. This will be the best defense they have faced this year.

Look for a very low scoring game here. Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total SMASHER* The Cincinnati Bearcats have been picking up the pace of late. For the year, Cincinnati is playing almost a possession faster than last year, but the real change has been in the last few games. 

A closer look at the last few games tells of the tempo change though. Cincinnati is averaging 65.6 possessions on the year, but in their last 4 games there has been an average of 75.3 possessions in regulation. The Bearcats have put up more than 90 points in 3 of those 4 games.

Last year, Tulane was more of a slow it down team. With a new coach now, they are playing faster. Tulane also gave up 1.00 points per possession on defense last year (a solid mark). This year they are allowing almost 1.10 points per possession (terrible). 

Cincinnati has been piling up the points against bad defenses, and this is one of the worst they will see this year. Cincinnati scored 97 on Tulane last year, and I see them getting to 85 or higher here. This total is several points too low.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz are second slowest in tempo in the NBA. Phoenix obviously plays very fast, but I think Utah can and will control the pace at home here.

In 4 of their last 9 games, the Jazz have held their opponent to 89 points or less. The Suns aren't efficient on offense, and I could see Utah holding them to a low total. 

Since 2007, on all NBA games on New Year' Eve the under is hitting at 61.5%. This has been a good under day in the long term, and I'll follow that trend. 

The referees in this game are a combined 57% to the under in the past four years. Strong trend there.

Take the under. 

. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a hard bet to make, there is no doubt about that. Houston is firing on all cylinders right now, and the Rockets can pour the points in. Still, at 225.5 on this day that is enough value for me to take the under.

Since 2007, on all NBA games on New Year' Eve the under is hitting at 61.5%. This has been a good under day in the long term, and I'll follow that trend. 

This number is 7 points higher than when the teams met earlier this year. It is an overreaction in the line. 

The referees in this game are 54.5% to the under in the last four years. That's a nice bonus.

Take the under. 

. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls meet tonight at the United Center. Both of these teams rank in the top 11 in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year. They are both middle of the pack on offensive efficiency. When it comes to pace, in the past month both of them rank in the bottom seven. 

This should be a slow paced game and these two teams have a bit of a rivalry.

Since 2007, on all NBA games on New Year' Eve the under is hitting at 61.5%. This has been a good under day in the long term, and I'll follow that trend. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Morehead State Eagles got rid of Sean Woods in the middle of the season. Preston Spradlin is the interim coach there now. Spradlin seems to be asking this Morehead State team to push the tempo much more than Woods was before he left.

Morehead State is playing at an average pace of 80.75 possessions since Spradlin took over. They won't average that fast overall for the year, but I do think they are going to be one of the fastest teams in the country. The Eagles also don't play any defense. They are 344th out of 351 teams in effective field goal percentage defense.

Tennessee Martin ranks in the top 100 in tempo, and the Skyhawks also rank in the bottom 50 in defensive efficiency. 

Both Martin and Morehead are great offensive rebounding teams, which is a clear positive for the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This number has been bet up to a point where I see value on the under. Both of these teams play a slow it down style of play, and it will take some good shooting numbers to get this one over the total. 

Eastern Illinois is getting at turning a game into a sloppy contest with their good defense and poor offense. With them being the home team, I think they dictate the pace and style of play here.

My number for this one was 139. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels have picked up the pace of late. In their last game against Colorado State, UNLV pushed the tempo to where Colorado State played their single fastest paced game of the season. UNLV certainly has the athletes to run, and they should continue to play quickly.

Wyoming has been one of the biggest tempo changers from last year to this year. Allen Edwards has taken over and this team is playing a whopping 10 possessions per game faster than it did last season. The Cowboys are great at getting to the line, and they shoot 77% from the stripe. 

UNLV and Wyoming have rarely gotten opponents who want to play as fast as them, but this is one of those times. It should be a track meet in Las Vegas.

I had this lined at 156 points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rhode Island Rams have a tremendous defense, and they should be too much for a St. Louis team that is expected to play without star Jermaine Bishop again in this one.

St. Louis is slowing the game down as much as possible now. Travis Ford realizes his team just isn't good enough to win high scoring games. The Billikens are playing a zone and using up the shot clock on offense.

Rhode Island is without key inside presence Hassan Martin, which makes them less able to take advantage of St. Louis' interior defense. 

The Rams have slowed their tempo down drastically in recent games.

St. Louis has scored 55 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. I think they will score about 50 in this one.

Rhode Island has seen 4 of their last 6 games stay under this posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CBB Hawaiian Late Night CASH* The Hawaii Warriors are a totally different team this year. They lost all of their top players from a year ago. Hawaii ranked 66th in the nation in tempo last year. This year they rank 300th in tempo. It's been a major slowdown for the team, because they don't have enough offensive firepower.

Delaware State makes a very rare trip to Hawaii. The Hornets have played an extremely tough schedule so far this year. Delaware State's average possession length ranks among the 15 slowest teams in the country. Look for the Hornets to use up the clock throughout this game.

Both teams rank among the 30 least efficient offenses in the country. I expect some poor shooting numbers in this contest.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels and Loyola Marymount Lions met three times last year. The final totals in those games were 121, 130, and 108 points. 

Look at the differences in the two teams from last year to this year. Both teams are playing about two possessions slower on average, which is obviously a positive for the under. Additionally, both teams are quite a bit better as far as their defensive efficiency this year.

St. Mary's is among the best teams in the country at slowing the pace down and getting the style of play they want. Marymount isn't going to turn this into a fast paced game either. 

The push higher here gives me too much value to pass up the under. I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The steam has come in on the over in this game, and I'll fade that steam and play the under. Portland and Pacific both started the year looking to push the tempo, but both of them have changed their style of play drastically in recent weeks. Their slowest paced games have all come in the last few contests.

Pacific just doesn't have enough scoring options to win too often in a shootout, and Damon Stoudamire figured that out and slowed things down. Terry Porter's Portland team played a bunch of ultra fast paced teams early in the year and that has skewed their overall pace profile. 

I have this game at 65 possessions, which means both teams would have to shoot the ball really well for this to go over. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers travel to Texas A&M in their SEC opener. Texas A&M is a much different team than they were last year. The Aggies ranked 224th in the country in terms of tempo last year. They rank 339th in terms of tempo this season. They are averaging about 4 possessions per game less than last year.

Texas A&M will work hard to slow the game down here, and Tennessee generally plays to the pace of their opponent. Texas A&M is great at defending without fouling and that limits Tennessee's best source of offense. The Volunteers generally live at the line.

I see this total as being several points too high. I'll limit this to a 4 star play instead of a 5 star top rated play because both teams are good on the offensive glass, but I do like the value on this under quite a bit. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats are pushing the tempo consistently this year. Quinnipiac is looking to get out in transition at every chance, and they are crashing the offensive boards relentlessly as always. The problem with this strategy is they send everyone after the offensive board, and when the opponent gets the defensive rebound they get a run out chance.

Brown plays very fast as well, and the Bears have trouble getting defensive rebounds. Quinnipiac will get a lot of second chance opportunities here, and they will also give up a lot of transition buckets. Both are obviously good for the over.

I see an extremely quick tempo and I had this one lined at 169 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star CBB Late Night BAILOUT* The Colorado State Rams were 55th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 196th in offensive efficiency this year. Colorado State was 274th in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 103rd in defensive efficiency this year.

The Rams are clearly a lower scoring team all the way around, and they play a UNLV team that appears to be playing to the pace and the style of their opponent in most games. Colorado State is a slightly below average paced team, and I think this game will be played at their tempo.

UNLV is doing a good job of defending without fouling this year, and Colorado State relies on trips to the free throw line to score more than almost anyone in the country. Colorado State's effective field goal percentage is 310th in the nation. 

UNLV is 221st in the nation in offensive efficiency and I don't see them having much success here.

These teams would have to shoot a considerably better percentage than normal to push this one over the total. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers were 44th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense last year. They are 267th in the same category this year. Northern Iowa still has the very slow tempo and strong defense, but they aren't good on offense now. That makes them a good team to look for unders with.

Missouri State has played a weak schedule so far this year, and I think they will struggle to score at Northern Iowa. On the other hand, Missouri State's defense has improved by leaps and bounds from last year. 

Both teams are excellent at defending without fouling. I see this being a tight low scoring game all the way.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack are pushing the tempo in a big way with Dennis Smith at point guard for them this year. Smith is heating up from downtown, and he has been great at getting to the line this year (he shoots 80% on free throws). The Wolfpack have scored 97, 99 and 89 points in their last three games. I think they'll put up another big total here. 

Rider is working hard to speed the game up this year. The Broncs rank 40th in the nation in tempo. Rider isn't likely to change their style of play for this game. While Rider looks good on defense on paper, they haven't played a top 125 team so far this year. NC State should carve up this defense.

NC State isn't nearly as good on defense as they are on offense. The tempo here should be quick enough that a push to 160 points is likely. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates weren't all that good on offense last year, but they are a lot worse so far this year. They are taking a lot of bad shots and turning it over way too much. On the other hand, this E. Carolina team is very good defensively. The Pirates were 239th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are 12th in the nation in that same category this year. 

USF is without two of their best players for this game. The Bulls only scores 61 against Elon, 62 against Florida Atlantic, and 48 points against Northern Illinois. This is the best defense they have played so far.

The two regular season games between these two teams last year were 69-52 and 52-39. Another low scoring one here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers have played at a quick pace so far this year, but I believe that has more to do with who they have played against than anything else. Memphis has played 9 of their 12 games this year against teams who rank in the top 1/4 of the country in overall pace. 

Memphis was slowed down by Providence and UAB, and SMU plays at a slower pace than either of those two teams. I think the fact that Memphis has played in a lot of high scoring games this year is giving us a few extra points in line value here.

SMU ranks 334th out of 351 teams in the nation in tempo. The Mustangs don't stray from their style of play for anyone, and that won't change here. SMU has played only two games on the road this year, and their shooting percentage was much lower in those games than the rest of their games on the season. 

This number should be in the 133 or 134 area. Take the under here.