Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers are sitting out Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and J.J. Redick in this one. Blake Griffin is already down with an injury and Paul Pierce is out with an injury as well. The Clippers offense will look a whole lot different on Thursday night than it normally does. 

Oklahoma City has been very good of late. The Thunder have been putting up a lot of points, but they are also playing very well on defense, especially on their home floor. 

This is a high total considering who all isn't playing in this game. The Clippers and Thunder both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Oklahoma City should coast to a win and their defense should be good enough to keep this one low enough scoring. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors are actually both in tough scheduling spots here. That makes me believe this game could be lower scoring than expected. A huge key for me in this game is the public is taking the over at an 85% clip and the total has dropped two full points from the open. That's a very strong signal of some sharp money on the under. 

Utah has to know the only chance they have here is to play some stall ball. They want no part of a high scoring game with Golden State. Both defenses rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past month. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Hawks actually have the single best defensive efficiency mark in the NBA in the past month. Atlanta is winning games with some tremendous defense right now. 

Toronto plays at the third slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Raptors will make this a game played in the halfcourt. Toronto's defense is much improved from last year, and that's the biggest reason the Raptors are the second ranked team in the Eastern Conference right now. 

The public money here is 83% on the over, but this number has dropped from the opener. I always like signs like this one. This is an anti-public play that the bookmakers are clearly respecting. 

The under is 5-0 in Toronto's last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Atlanta's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 17-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Houston Rockets go to Cleveland to take on the Cavs tonight. The Cavs will be without LeBron James. Cleveland has been a mess on the offensive end when James hasn't played in the last couple years. In fact, in LeBron's last 15 games sitting out, the under is 12-3. The over is getting almost 80% of the public bets, but the line has gradually moved down today, which is certainly a nice indicator of sharp money on the under. Houston needs games like this one with their playoff spot being very questionable. This one is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*5 Star Vegas 8 TOP Play Total SMASHER* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs always look to push the tempo. They should get their wish in this game. Occasionally, you'll find a team that simply plays to the preferred pace of their opponent, and East Tennessee State definitely looks like one of those teams. 

In non-conference action, East Tennessee State played a 103-90 game against Green Bay and a 94-73 game against UNC Wilmington. Louisiana Tech ranks in the top 50 in the country in terms of tempo, and the Bulldogs will look to get in transition in this game. LA Tech is good at getting to the free throw line, and East Tennessee State has been fouling too much down the stretch this year.

East Tennessee State averaged more than 1.11 points per possession in conference play this year, which is great offensive efficiency. LA Tech was a very good 1.087 points per possession also. 

This is the first round of the Vegas 8 Tournament and most of these smaller postseason tournaments often see higher scores early in the tournament. I expect a lot of offense in this one. Take the over big. TOP RATED Play. 

*3 Star North Carolina/Notre Dame Totals CASH* The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with a spot in the Final Four on the line. These two teams played twice during the regular season and Notre Dame won 80-76 at home, while North Carolina won 78-47 on a neutral floor in the ACC Tournament. In Notre Dame's comeback win at home, the Fighting Irish scored 31 points at the free throw line (out of 38 attempts). North Carolina doesn't foul much overall and I can't imagine Notre Dame getting to the line that much in this game. 

Notre Dame should know their only chance to win this game is to stall and try to keep the score down. They simply can't get out in transition with North Carolina and expect to have a chance to win here. The Fighting Irish should be running the clock down every time they get the ball.

With 125 and 156 being the totals during the regular season games, I believe this one is lined too high. North Carolina's defense is underrated, and Notre Dame should be planing very slowly. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA TGIF Play of Day* The Atlanta Hawks defense has been the best in the NBA in the past month. For the year, Atlanta ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency behind only the Spurs. In the past month, their defense has been slightly better than the Spurs. Atlanta still plays at a relatively quick pace, but the Hawks offense is much less efficient than they were last year. 

Milwaukee is playing at the slowest tempo of any team outside of Utah in the past month. The Bucks offense struggles without Mayo and Carter-Williams. The Bucks will work to slow this game down as much as possible.

Another strong sign is this total dropping despite 2/3 of the public bets on this game coming in on the over. I always like to see a line move that goes against the public. 

The under is 6-2 in the Hawks last 8 home games. The under is 4-1 in the Bucks last 5. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB TGIF Total DOMINATION* These two teams really play at a slow tempo. This game should be played at an extremely slow pace. Notre Dame is 333rd out of 351 teams in college basketball in their offensive tempo. Wisconsin ranks 349th out of 351 in terms of tempo. 

Wisconsin has a way of turning almost any game into a low scoring defensive battle. While Notre Dame's offense is good, I don't think the Fighting Irish will find very many open looks against a good Badgers defense. Wisconsin's offense has been suffering late in the year as Nigel Hayes has really slumped. 

This is a game that I see playing to a pace of 57 or 58 possessions, which would be among the slowest in the entire NCAA Tournament. Neither team fouls much, so that's certainly helpful. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats have the 7th best defense in the nation in terms of efficiency. Villanova also prefers to slow the pace of the game down. Villanova is heavily reliant on outside shooting, and that can be a problem in these neutral site games. 

Miami also likes to play at a slow tempo, and the Hurricanes are more than comfortable playing in a low scoring contest. 

It's important to note that neither of these teams commits many fouls. They are good at defending without committing fouls which can quickly add points to the total.

I expect a close game in this one, and I think the two defenses will have a slight advantage over the two offenses. I had this number at 138. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The New York Knicks tempo has been very slow under Kurt Rambis. They are also working quite a bit harder on defense than they were earlier this year. New York is playing at better than league average on defense in the past month. 

Chicago's defense is better than league average as well, and their offense ranks 25th in the NBA in efficiency. The Bulls offense just can't seem to put it all together this year, and injuries have really held the team back.

The first two meetings this year finished at 198 and 189. This has the highest posted total of any game between these two in the past three years. 

The under is 20-7 in the Knicks last 27. The under is 5-2 in the Bulls last 7 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Duquesne Dukes can really push the pace of the game. Duquesne just played a 120-112 game against Nebraska Omaha. The score in the second half alone of that game was 80-69! That's mind boggling scoring, and in these smaller postseason tournaments you can get some very high scoring games between teams who prefer to push the pace.

Morehead State showed they were willing to run with Siena in their first postseason game, and that gives me enough reason to play the over here. Morehead State fouls almost as much as anyone in the country, and Duquesne fouls more than average as well. I had this lined at 157 points. 

The over is 4-0 in Duquesne's last 4 games after allowing 90 points or more last game. The over is 4-0 in Morehead State's last 4. The over is 4-0 in Morehead State's last 4 non-conference games. A 12-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Maryland Terrapins offense has been up and down this year. They got on track nicely last game in the second half against South Dakota State. Hawaii has an underrated player in Stefan Jankovic who could be tough for Maryland's defense to matchup with

Hawaii's defensive numbers are good this year, but the best teams they played this year put up a lot of points on them. They allowed 82 points against Texas Tech and 87 against Oklahoma. 

Hawaii is extremely aggressive on defense, and that should send Maryland to the line a lot in this one. Maryland is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Oklahoma Sooners love to push the tempo, and here they get to play against a VCU team that prefers to play fast as well. Oklahoma will get out in transition in front of a friendly crowd in Oklahoma City. The Sooners shoot 43% from long distance as a team, which is second best in the nation. Buddy Hield is locked in, and the Sooners present several matchup issues for the VCU defense.

Neither of these teams is very good at keeping opponents off the glass, so that should present several second chance opportunities in this one. 

Plenty of pace and scorers all over the floor should equal an over in this one. 

I had this game at 152 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Saturday Tourney Late Night BAILOUT* The North Carolina Tar Heels always want to push the tempo. Providence is generally a team that likes to get out in transition when they can as well. 

Both teams hold key advantages on offense in this game. Kris Dunn is a big guard who should be able to do damage against North Carolina's defense. Not many guards have the kind of size advantage over Carolina's defense that Dunn has, and he should be able to hurt them. On the other side, North Carolina should absolutely dominate on the offensive glass. The Tar Heels are great at getting second chance points, and Providence has struggled there against their best opponents.

Sometimes neutral site games can be bad for the over, but there are a few reasons I like the over here. First, there have been a bunch of whistles so far in the NCAA Tournament. Second, the rims are clearly soft overall in the NCAA Tournament, which helps shooters. Thirdly, both teams are playing in their second game at this venue, and that usually helps shooters as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes are good at controlling the tempo. Gonzaga has been playing to the pace of their opponent more often than not of late. Both of these teams have high quality defenses. I don't think we'll see very many open looks for either team.

The matchup down low of Sabonis for Gonzaga and Poetl for Utah is a tremendous one. I think those two are both good enough on defense to slow the other down more than they are usually slowed down by other opponents. 

This game is played at altitude in Denver where exhaustion can be a factor and we saw Gonzaga's opponent Seton Hall have all sorts of trouble with being winded on Thursday. 

Close game here and I think this total is a few points high. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and New Hampshire Wildcats are both much better on the defensive end than the offensive end of the floor. This is a smaller postseason tournament, but these two teams both prefer a slow tempo, so I don't expect a high scoring game like we have seen in other spots. 

Look for both of these offenses to be inconsistent throughout the course of the game. The slow tempo and poor efficiency should keep this under the posted total. Take the under.  

*4 Star NIT Total DOMINATION* The BYU Cougars host the Virginia Tech Hokies on Friday night. BYU put up 97 points against a very good UAB team a couple days ago. Virginia Tech beat Princeton in overtime a couple days ago. 

Both of these teams prefer to play quickly. While they have some teams who are able to slow them down during the regular season in conference play, they should get their wish to play very fast in this smaller postseason tournament game. 

Virginia Tech is at their best when in transition and attacking the hoop. Virginia Tech gets to the line more often than anyone in the nation (out of 351 teams). BYU is deadly from three-point territory and VA Tech's defense slipped a lot down the stretch against quality teams.

I made this number 167 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers totals are tricky to project because the team presses in the full court and gets so many easy buckets, but if they don't score a quick bucket West Virginia likes to be deliberate and run the 30 second shot clock down low. 

Stephen F. Austin has to know that they cannot afford to get into a shootout with this West Virginia team. The Lumberjacks can't come out running in transition. They don't have enough athletes to beat West Virginia up and down the floor. The Lumberjacks will likely do their best to use up the shot clock whenever they can. 

Both defenses are strong and this number is high for an NCAA Tournament game. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Hawaii Warriors and Cal Golden Bears meet at 2 pm eastern on Friday. First things first, why was this game scheduled as the early game on the West Coast? This thing starts at 11 am Pacific and at 8 am Hawaii time. Neither team will be accustomed to this playing time, and these odd start times are generally good for the under. Don't be surprised if they get off to a slow start or if the shooting numbers are lower than average.

While both of these teams play relatively fast, both teams are far better on the defensive end than the offensive end. Hawaii ranks 40th in the nation in defensive efficiency and 107th in offensive efficiency. Cal ranks 12th on defense and 47th on offense. Cal is first in the nation in two point field goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot only 40.9 percent on two-pointers.

The pace usually slows down in the NCAA Tournament. The oddities of this game and the strong defenses make this a good value play. Take the under big. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have slowed their pace of play down drastically throughout the course of the season. Utah is a very good defensive team, and the strength of this Fresno State team is also their defense.

Marvelle Harris is a really good player for Fresno State, but the Bulldogs offense too often gets stagnant. I don't think him going one on one against this Utah defense will work well for Fresno State.

The Utes are likely to have the lead in this game, and they have shown to be very good at grabbing the lead and then controlling the tempo by taking the air out of the ball.

Fresno State isn't a good shooting team, and they rely on free throws often. That's a problem against a Utah team that fouls less than any other team in the nation. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The UConn Huskies are a really good defensive team. UConn also does a nice job slowing down the pace of the game. Colorado is a team that typically plays to the pace of their opponent. The Buffaloes are also a quality defense.

This is an early game and it is the first game of the NCAA Tournament for both teams obviously. The first game jitters should be here and when you combine that with a slow tempo as well as two good defenses, I think we'll see a game where it's a back and forth low scoring game.

While the smaller postseason tournaments are typically played at a quicker pace with less defense, most NCAA Tournament games aren't that way. The defenses have the advantage in this matchup. Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals SMASHER- Note this game is on Wednesday March 16* Both teams prefer an uptempo style and this number is several points too low given that this is a smaller postseason tournament where the tempo gets even quicker on average. I think this one gets at least into the mid 150's. In fact, my number for this game was 157. Neither offense has been particularly efficient during the season, but they are playing against a weak defense on the other end here. Take the over big. TOP RATED play. *This line is moving quickly as are many of the smaller postseason tournament lines. I would play this for a Top Rated play up to 153 points. Thank you* 

*4 Star Play Over- This game is on Wednesday March 16* While neither team played particularly fast in the regular season, the tempo speeds up this time of the year in smaller postseason tournaments. The two offenses are drastically better than the defenses here. I expect some good shooting numbers and a bunch of made 3's in this game. Take the over. *Note- These smaller tournament lines are moving quickly. I would play this up to 151, but no higher. Thank you* 

*4 Star Play Over- Wednesday* This is obviously a very high posted total, but it's high for plenty of reasons. The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks move at the 6th fastest tempo of any team in the country out of 351 teams. Duquesne is the 12th quickest team in the country in terms of getting up a shot. When these two meet, it should be an absolute track meet. Both of them were slowed down by many teams in their conference, but they won't be slowed down in terms of pace here. The smaller postseason tournaments have been great for overs the past few years. Both teams put up a very high number here. 

*3 Star Play Over* North Florida gets to host Florida in a very rare spot for them to try to take out the big team from Gainesville. Both of these teams love to run and the tempo here should be very quick. The smaller postseason tournaments generally have much higher scoring games because teams care far less about defense than they do in the Big Dance. Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Siena and Morehead State both get to the line a lot and knock down free throws. Siena can't handle full court pressure, and Morehead State should get a lot of easy buckets from their press. Both teams are excellent on the offensive glass. The smaller postseason tournaments generally have much higher scoring games because teams care far less about defense than they do in the Big Dance. Take the over here. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* I can't pass this one up. While there are a couple things about this game I don't like: most importantly the Cavs recent higher scoring games and quicker tempo, the spot is just too good to pass up the under.

It is a strong long-term trend to play early Sunday games in the NBA to go under the posted total. That trend gets even stronger in unique situations like this one. With the clocks moving forward an hour, players get an hour less to sleep on Saturday night and this game starts at 12:30 local time in Los Angeles. That's definitely a negative for scoring when it comes to long term scoring averages.

I'll play the situation here. Take the under.  

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Texas A&M Aggies have the best defense in the SEC. The Kentucky Wildcats have the second best defense in the SEC. This one is being played at Bridgestone Arena, which is noted as a poor arena for shooters. 

In the last meeting between Kentucky and Texas A&M, the game was several points under the total before going into overtime. Both teams will want this one pretty badly, so I'll be looking for a motivated effort on the defensive end. 

Kentucky's defense was non-existent yesterday, and I have to think Coach Cal will let them know about it before this game. 

The under is 13-5 in Texas A&M's last 18 games as they have slowed their pace down. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The VCU Rams and the St. Joe's Hawks squared off earlier this year in an absolute track meet. That game was played at a tempo of 78 possessions, which is extremely quick. The final score in that game was 85-82. VCU likes to run when given the opportunity, and St. Joe's has picked up the tempo in a big way this year. In fact, down the stretch St. Joe's has moved even quicker. Only two of their last ten games have stayed below this total. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The two meetings during the regular season finished way under this posted total. These are two teams who excel on the defensive side of the ball. They are playing on a neutral floor which is slightly negative for shooters. There is early sharp money on the under here, and I think that is the right side. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both regular season meetings between these two teams went well under the posted total. I generally like to look for spots like this where we get a much higher total in the postseason than the regular season meetings were. This game means everything to both teams. If they lose, they are done. That generally slows down the tempo. Additionally, this is at a neutral floor which is a negative for shooters. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers like to stall, but North Carolina isn't going to let them dictate the tempo here. The last four games between these two teams have gone over the posted total. The over has been pure money at the ACC Tournament this year. This line has been bet down to a point where I believe the value is on the over. Both offenses are extremely efficient. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Cal Golden Bears and Utah Utes are the two best defenses in the Pac 12. These two will have to work very hard on offense to find open looks. Utah has slowed their tempo down to a crawl late in the season. Cal generally plays to the pace of their opponent. This is a rare spot where we get a total in a conference tournament that is higher than either of the regular season meetings. I had 132 for this one. Take the under big. TOP RATED play. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Fresno State Bulldogs and Colorado State Rams just met recently and had a high scoring game. Colorado State is the worst defense in the Mountain West, and they have the most efficient offense in the league. They will give Marvelle Harris and the Fresno State offense a lot of open looks. Additionally, Fresno State's defense fouls a bunch and Colorado State is great at getting to the line and converting. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The ACC Tournament has seen a lot of overs so far this year, so I'm limiting this rating to a 3 star. It normally would have been a 4 star play. One thing that's for sure is the tempo in this game will be extremely slow. Both regular season meetings stayed under this total despite good shooting numbers. The tempo in the last meeting was just 54 possessions. That's as slow as you will ever see in this era. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane like to play quick when their opponent allows them to. Memphis has the 8th quickest tempo of any team in the nation. The regular season meeting between these two went to 174 points. Memphis is going to push in transition as much as possible because Tulsa is tough to beat in the halfcourt. While I'm slightly concerned that the shooting numbers could be low here, I believe the tempo that we'll see warrants a play on the over. I had this one at 152. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Norfolk State Spartans are extremely efficient on offense, and South Carolina State isn't any good on defense. The regular season meeting between these teams finished at 161 points. There should be a lot of free throw attempts and both teams are good from the line. I had this game lined at 153 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Chicago Bulls have major injury problems right now. Chicago is expected to be without Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah, and Cameron Bairstow for this game. Derrick Rose is questionable. The Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both of them rank in the bottom ten in the league in offensive efficiency. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 games against each other. This total is inflated by a few points. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats and Alabama Crimson Tide both slow the game down. Both of them are also very good on defense. Bridgestone Arena is noted as a bad arena for shooters. It's where the Nashville Predators play, and hockey arenas aren't usually good for shooters. The backdrop is a difficult one. 

Kentucky is too good for Alabama, and the Wildcats defense should dominate. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are very consistent in playing at a slow tempo. Old Dominion is one of the best defensive teams in the country. This should be a hard fought game where open shots are tough to come by. On a neutral floor, this one should stay in the mid 120's or lower. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boise State Broncos were screwed the last time they played the Colorado State Rams. They had a game winning 3 pointer taken off the board by the refs on a terrible call. I imagine that will have them very focused and ready to pour it on in this game. I lean to Boise State minus the points, but the number is higher than I wanted to see. Instead, I'm taking the over because Colorado State's defense is the worst in the Mountain West. These two played two very high scoring games this year in the regular season. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first meeting between these two teams this year was 112-108. Yes, you read that correctly. That's a high scoring NBA game. UTEP likes to push the pace and Marshall plays as fast as anyone in the country. The only reason this one isn't a higher rated play is this is a neutral floor and shooting percentages could be a bit lower. The pace will be there, and this number is set a few points too low. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play MONEYMAKER* The Miami Hurricanes have really slowed their tempo down a lot in recent weeks. The Hurricanes have stalled out the tempo in both games against Virginia Tech during the regular season. Virginia Tech played quickly early in the season, but they aren't playing fast at all in the last month.

Virginia Tech relies a lot on getting to the line and Miami doesn't foul much at all. Virginia Tech does a good job mixing up defenses with Buzz Williams on the sideline, and that has bothered Miami some this year. 

In a big game for both teams, I expect a slow pace and solid defense. Take the under big. TOP Rated Play. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Totals CRUSHER* The UC Irvine Anteaters and Cal Poly Mustangs have a very long history of playing low scoring games against each other. In their last 8 games against each other, none have gone over this posted total without going into overtime. In fact, only one of them has finished within 10 points of this posted total.

Cal Poly experimented with playing faster early in the season, but they are back to slowing things down lately. UC Irvine has a tremendous defense and they can dominate on that end of the floor.

This game is played at the Honda Center, which is a big positive for the under. This is a terrible shooters venue based on the numbers over the years. With this being both teams first games in this gym since last year, it's a good time to look at the under. Note that the regular season meetings had posted totals of 137 and 141, so there has been no adjustment here for the neutral site.

The under is 4-1 in Cal Poly's last 5 games. The under is 55-27-1 in UC Irvine's last 83 games overall. Take the under big. TOP RATED Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rhode Island Rams defense has been a puzzle that the UMass Minutemen haven't been able to solve this year. In regulation, UMass scored 51 and 50 points on Rhode Island's defense in their two regular season meetings. Rhode Island is the best of any team in this conference when it comes to slowing the pace down. I think they dictate the tempo in this one. A neutral floor in Brooklyn here likely helps the under a bit since neither team is accustomed to shooting here. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Idaho State Bengals and North Dakota Fighting Hawks both prefer to play at a quick tempo. Ethan Telfair is a star for Idaho State, and I expect a good showing from him. North Dakota lit up Idaho State's defense in both games during the regular season. In a game that should be close, free throws late could be the difference. Both of these teams are good at getting to the line. My number here was 151. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Florida Gators met only once this year, and it was an 87-83 game. Both of these teams like to use full court pressure, and that really speeds the game up. While Florida struggled much of the year in the halfcourt on offense, they found success in getting steals and easy buckets in the first game against Arkansas. 

At the same time, the weakness of the Florida defense is defending beyond the 3 point line. Arkansas is a very good three point shooting team, so they can exploit that weakness. Additionally, Florida gets to the line a lot and Arkansas is a team that does a lot of fouling. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The two regular season meetings between these two teams were both under this posted total. This contest will take place in the Toyota Center in Houston. This is a massive arena, and neither of these teams are accustomed to playing in this big of a place. Also, there will be almost no one here, which is definitely a negative on average when it comes to shooting percentages. Texas Southern's defense should dominate Alabama A&M and I expect Texas Southern to slow the tempo down once they are ahead. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Norfolk State Spartans played a very challenging non-conference schedule this year, and that got them ready for this tournament. Norfolk State picked up the pace in a big way during the conference portion of the season. The Spartans also were the number one ranked offense in the league in terms of efficiency by a wide margin. UNC Central is a six point dog here, and I don't think they'll be able to slow this game down enough. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* 14 of Rutgers' last 18 games have gone over this total. Both of the regular season games between these two went over this total. Rutgers has been a great over team this year because of two things. First, their tempo is the fastest of any team in the Big Ten. Secondly, they don't play any defense at all. How bad is their defense? Opponents are scoring 1.20 points per possession on them in the Big Ten (1.04 or so is average). I had this number at 144. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The George Mason Colonials and St. Louis Billikens are two similar teams. Both of these teams have decided to speed up their pace of play throughout the year. That has shown through in the first two meetings between these teams going far above the posted total. This is a neutral site, but the Barclays Center isn't noted as a particularly bad arena for shooters. The pace should be enough in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Pittsburgh Panthers and Syracuse Orange meet in the noon eastern game in the ACC Tournament on Wednesday. Pittsburgh and Syracuse played twice in the regular season and those games finished at 133 and 118 points. The Panthers have slowed down their tempo more and more as the season has moved along. Syracuse plays relatively slow on offense, and their patented zone defense slows down the opposing offense a great deal. 

In these conference tournaments on a neutral floor the scoring is usually a little bit lower. This is a new gym to these teams, and that's important here as well. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* Arkansas Pine Bluff and Alabama A&M meet tonight in the SWAC Conference Tournament. This game will be played in Houston at the Toyota Center. Safe to say that almost no one will be there for this game. Tons of empty seats. These teams are not accustomed to playing in a huge venue like this, and that usually hurts shooting percentages a lot. Arkansas Pine Bluff has been stalling a lot of late, with 3 of their last 5 games having a pace of 59 possessions or fewer. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The St. Mary's Gaels use 20.5 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on an average possession. That makes them one of the six slowest teams in the nation out of 351 teams. St. Mary's definitely likes to slow the game down and win with ball control and defense.

Pepperdine has taken down St. Mary's twice this year, partially because they defend the 3 point line so well. St. Mary's is reliant on long range shooting. With this game being played on a neutral floor in a large arena, it makes things a little bit tougher on the shooters. That combined with the slow pace and two strong defenses should make this a low scoring contest.

The first two meetings between these teams finished at 131 and 132 points. In a game that means so much to both teams, I expect a slower tempo. I had this one at 129. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* New Hampshire isn't a good offensive team, but they are a solid defense. Both of these teams prefer to play at a relatively slow tempo. The first two meetings between these teams both stayed below this posted total. I don't see a reason for the number in a conference tournament game where the loser has their season ended to be higher than the first two games were. Take the under. 

*4 Star Monday's NBA BEST Bet* The Charlotte Hornets host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night. Minnesota's defense has been awful in the last few weeks. How bad has it been? Since the All Star Break, Minnesota hasn't given up less than 103 points in a single game. They have given up 114 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games overall.

Minnesota plays 2.5 possessions per game quicker on the road, and Charlotte is playing about a possession per game faster at home than they are on the road. This sets up as a nice high scoring game where Charlotte puts up a big number on an awful defense. Minnesota clearly has the offensive weapons to score plenty too.

The over is 21-6-1 in Minnesota's last 28 road games. The over is 11-1 in their last 12 following a win. Take the over. 

*3 Star 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Wisconsin Badgers defense has been amazing in the last month. Wisconsin is playing so much better than they did earlier this year. They have slowed the pace down even more and worked even harder on defense, and it's paying off in a big way. Speeding up Wisconsin is an extremely difficult thing to do. Purdue's defense is very good as well, and the first game between these two was 61-55. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have gone under the total. I look for a close low scoring contest.

The under is 7-0 in Wisconsin's last 7. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a 60% win percentage or higher. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison have been the best defensive team in the Summit League all year long. North Dakota State also does a terrific job controlling the pace of the game by slowing things down and turning it into a halfcourt game. IUPUI is a team that generally plays to the pace of their opponent. 

This game is played on a neutral court where shooting percentages have typically been lower than average.

The under is 13-3 in ND State's last 16 following a loss. The under is 18-6 in their last 24 neutral site games. The under is 13-3 in IUPUI's last 16 neutral site games. A 44-12 angle. Take the under.

*4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The SMU Mustangs are playing for the AAC title here, and this will be their final game of the season since they are ineligible for postseason play. Cincinnati needs a marquee win here to bounce back from a very disappointing loss at Houston last game. Both teams will be highly motivated for this one.

The first game between these two was 59-57 at SMU. Cincinnati ranks first in the country in two point field goal percentage defense. SMU takes a bunch of shots inside the paint, and they always find it hard to score against this UC defense. SMU scored only 54 and 50 in two games against UC last year.

Both teams like to slow down the pace. I had this one at 129. The under is 73-32 in Cincinnati's last 105 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have the second best defense in the country in terms of efficiency. San Diego State held UNLV to 52 points on the road earlier this year. While UNLV definitely likes to play fast, they are badly banged up right now and they aren't efficient on offense. The UNLV defense is underrated, and San Diego State isn't a good shooting team. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels are excellent at slowing the game down when they have the lead. I fully expect them to grab the lead here and then work to slow the game down. This game is played in Las Vegas at Orleans Arena. This is a much bigger facility than these two teams generally play in, which tends to hurt shooting percentages a bit. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes and Colorado Buffaloes played to a 56-54 final earlier this year. This one probably won't be that low, but I do think it stays under this total. Colorado has been struggling on offense, and the Buffaloes aren't playing as quickly of late. Utah has slowed their tempo drastically in Pac 12 play. Utah is in a must win spot here and playing their final home game. Utah should grab the lead and then dictate the pace of the game. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Pepperdine Waves and San Francisco Dons played twice during the regular season. One of the games finished at 182 points and the other finished at 154 points. San Francisco has done a great job of forcing the tempo in the second half of the season. Pepperdine's defense hasn't been nearly as good as it was last year. This number is a little lower because this game is played on a neutral floor, but I think the adjustment has been too big here. I had this one at 151. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams are the worst teams in the Ivy League. They are also the fastest paced teams. The tempo here should be blazing fast as neither team plays any defense. The first game got to 166 as both teams scored like crazy in the second half. With neither team having anything to play for, I think this really helps the over. I had this one at 159. The over is 25-8 in Brown's last 33 Ivy League games. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* For the year as a whole playing unders on College of Charleston games has been great to me. I have narrowly lost the last two C of C under plays (including last night), but for the year I am 8-2 on C of C under plays. I played the under both times in C of C's regular season matchups against UNC Wilmington and won in both. UNC Wilmington is the better team here, but the Seahawks haven't been able to push the pace against C of C in the past, and I don't think they can here either. Both teams are better on defense than offense, and this is played at a neutral site with a bad shooting backdrop. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The USC Trojans love to push the tempo. Oregon likes to run when they get their chance, and they'll have plenty of transition opportunities here. The first game between these two hit 170 points. USC got their offense on track last game at home against Oregon State. The Ducks have proven they can put up big numbers away from home also. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Total of the Week* The Virginia Tech Hokies went to Miami a couple weeks ago and lost 65-49. Miami slowed the tempo down and shut down this Hokies offense. 

Miami's pace has slowed drastically throughout the course of the season. Virginia Tech has also slowed down their tempo in a big way in ACC play. This game should be played at a tempo in the 63 or 64 possessions range. At that pace, this is a very high posted total.

Miami doesn't foul much at all, and that's where Virginia Tech gets most of their offense. Virginia Tech's defense has been much better at home this year. 

The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two. Take the under big. TOP RATED Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Horizon League Tournament is being played at Joe Louis Arena this year. That's where the Detroit Red Wings play hockey. This arena setup should be really difficult for shooters. It's the first time either of these teams has ever played at this arena. 

The regular season meetings between these two finished at 143 and 146 points. Conference tournaments are usually played at a slightly slower pace because it is a win or go home situation. In this one we should get the slower pace, and I suspect the shooting numbers will be down from season averages as well. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The College of Charleston has been excellent to me this year as an under team. They went over in their last game for the first time in the last nine games. Each of the first two meetings between C of C and Delaware stayed safely under this total. 

Delaware is a poor team that generally plays sloppy games. C of C is a great defensive team that slows the game down. 

The under is 41-17 in C of C's last 58 games overall.

This game is played at Royal Farms Arena, which is known as a tough gym for shooters. I had this number at 123 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Minnesota Timberwolves defense has been downright awful of late. They haven't allowed less than 102 points in a single game since January. Minnesota plays at a much faster tempo on the road, and the over is 20-8-2 in their road games this year. 

Milwaukee and Minnesota both rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. This should be a game with a lot of easy looks for both teams. Look for a shootout in Milwaukee tonight. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls play faster than any other team in the MAC. Bowling Green's defense has been really bad in the past month. Both of these teams get to the free throw line often, and that should be important in this game. 

The first meeting between these two was 88-74, so it sailed over the total easily. While this one might not be that high, I do like the value here. I had this number at 151 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UC Irvine Anteaters defense is one of the best in the Big West. They are fully capable of shutting down the opposition for long stretches. Cal Poly toyed with playing quicker this year, but the Mustangs have definitely slowed their tempo down over the second half of the season. 

The first game between these two was one that was staying well under the posted total until a late 3 put the game into overtime. These two have a long history of low scoring meetings. The under is 54-26-1 in Irvine's last 81 games. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Weber State Wildcats are without star big man Joel Bolomboy. Without him, both of their games have gone under the total. Idaho and Weber State are the two best defenses in the Big Sky at this point in the season. Idaho loves to slow the game down and win with defense. It's hard to imagine either team getting on a big scoring streak here. I had this one at 126 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Nashville Municipal Auditorium is a terrible backdrop for shooters. The first meeting between these two games stayed well under the posted total. This game means a lot to both teams and the tempo should be very slow. I expect this one to be around the 60 possession mark, which makes this total a few points too high. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two finished at 129 despite Cincinnati shooting far better than they normally do. The tempo is very slow when these two teams meet. Houston's offense is normally very good, but this Bearcats defense has been playing great lately. Both teams are playing for seeding in the conference tournament, and this should be a good game. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans have drastically slowed down their pace of play throughout the season. They were pushing the tempo early in the year, but they have been trying to stall games out lately. They won't have to try very hard to stall against Texas State, who plays at the slowest pace of any team in the Sun Belt. 

The first meeting between these two finished at 123 points with pretty average shooting numbers. The under is 10-1 in Troy's last 11 games. The under is 4-0 in their last road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green and Old Dominion Monarchs played earlier this year and the final was 67-47. North Texas prefers to play quickly, but they don't have a good enough team to force the tempo of the game against a great defense like Old Dominion. I think ODU controls the pace here and without rare great shooting numbers, this one stays under. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* American plays at the single slowest tempo of any team in the country. The first two games between these two teams both went under this total and now we have their tournament game which means even more. That usually slows the tempo down even more. American averages shooting the ball with 8.5 seconds on the clock, so the tempo alone is enough for me to like the under. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd are among the very best teams in the country at forcing the tempo of the game. Louisiana Tech has shown no signs in the past of being a team that would want to slow the game down. Marshall's offense has been tremendous on their home floor, and the Thundering Herd are averaging 85 points per game on the year. Playing against another team that pushes tempo should make this one be played at a break neck pace. Look for a high scoring game here. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Murray State Racers and Eastern Illinois Panthers meet in a OVC Tournament game in Nashville tonight. This game is being played at Nashville Municipal Auditorium where the shooting backdrop is among the worst in college basketball. Unders have been great in the OVC Tournament in the past. I was hoping for a higher number than this, but with two teams who don't push the pace and a bad shooter's gym, I'm taking the under as a 3 star rated play. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos best player is James Webb. He is listed as questionable for this game. Nevada's best player is Marqueze Coleman and he is listed as doubtful for this one. 

In the first meeting between these two, the final was 74-67 despite everyone being healthy. Nevada loves to play quickly, but their offense shoots a really bad percentage and their defense is excellent.

Nevada has only seen one of their last 7 games go over the total without overtime. Good value here. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The first two meetings between these teams finished well under this total at 101 and 114 points. Binghamton has one of the worst offenses in the country. They also move very slowly. Both of these teams are actually quite good on the defensive end. Without these teams shooting a much higher percentage than normal, I think it's unlikely this one gets to the posted total. In a conference tournament game where more is on the line, I like the value here. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Michigan State Spartans are a well-oiled machine right now. Rutgers is the worst team the Big Ten has seen in many years. Michigan State should thump Rutgers here. This Rutgers defense is giving up 1.21 points per possession in the Big Ten, which is just ridiculous. Michigan State's offense is the most efficient in the Big Ten. The Spartans put up 96 points on Rutgers in the first meeting.

Rutgers' offense gets a big boost tonight when star freshman Corey Sanders returns to the lineup. He's the best player on the team by a wide margin.

The pace should be plenty quick enough. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* NJIT and Stetson played two games that finished under this posted total during the regular season. In general, conference tournament games are slightly lower scoring because the pace slows down when the game means more. This game means a bunch to both teams since they are going home for the season if they lose. I think this one should stay around 150. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles and Northern Illinois Huskies got to 143 in their first meeting despite playing slower than expected and shooting slightly worse than their season averages. If things normalize in this game, I think a game up around 150 is likely. Both teams make a living at the line, and both teams foul a bunch. Expect trips to the charity stripe to push this one over the total. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. Virginia Tech has had a difficult time speeding up the tempo against some of their recent opponents, but that won't be the case here against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons aren't a good team, but they are always looking to play fast. The first meeting between these two teams went to 184 points. Look for this one to get at least into the mid 150's. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The first meeting between these two was 103-95. This one won't be like that one, but I still like it to go over the posted total. Belmont is locked in as the top seed in the OVC Tournament, and there's no reason for them to be too terribly interested in this game. That usually means less defense and a lot of scoring. 

Belmont always loves to push the tempo and Tennessee State has gradually played much quicker throughout the course of the season. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix shoot the ball quicker than any other team in the country. They only use 13.3 seconds on average of the 30 second shot clock. Green Bay is going to try to push the tempo in every game they play.

Valparaiso is one of the best mid-majors in the country. The Crusaders have an excellent defense, but I don't see them being too interested in this game. Valpo has clinched the top seed in the Horizon League Tournament, and that one gets underway this coming week. The Crusaders are more likely to get into a fast paced battle with Green Bay than they normally would have been.

Add to that the fact that Valpo's offense has been much better this year, and I think we have a total that is several points too low. I had this number at 155 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This one plays into a system that has done well in recent years for me. These are two teams with almost nothing to play for in the regular season finale. That generally means higher scoring. Mercer's defense has been awful in the last few games. The normally good defense of the Bears has allowed 79, 85, 72, 77, and 91 points in their last five games. Most of those haven't even had a fast pace either. UNC Greensboro has been very efficient on offense down the stretch. Neither defense is good. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* The UConn Huskies have the best defense in the American Athletic Conference. Their defense is much better than the second best defense in the league. Houston has been lighting up most of the defenses in this conference, but I don't expect them to do that to UConn.

Looking back, Houston has struggled on offense against both Cincinnati and Tulsa on the road. Interestingly, Cincinnati has the 2nd ranked defense in the AAC and Tulsa has the 3rd ranked defense. Now, Houston goes on the road to take on the top ranked defense of the Huskies. Additionally, Houston scored only 57 points at home against UConn earlier this year.

Both of these teams slow the game down a lot. The tempo here should be very slow. I think this total is 5 or 6 points too high. Take the under. TOP RATED Play. 

*4 Star Play Over* The first game between these two teams went to 172 points and this one should be very similar. Both of these teams are excellent on the offensive end and they are great at getting to the line and converting. Both shoot about 75 percent from the stripe. Eastern Kentucky is a very fast paced team, and Tennessee Tech will run with them. I had this one at 169 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game will decide the Big Sky Conference title. Weber State and Montana are the two best defensive teams in the Big Sky. Joel Bolomboy is out for this game for Weber State and that should hurt them on both ends of the floor. I think the defenses will be ready here and the tempo will be slow because of the importance of the game. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies and San Jose State Spartans both prefer to play at a slow tempo when they can. San Jose State has slowed down drastically in recent weeks and the Spartans offense is very inefficient. Utah State has a great home court advantage, and most road teams shoot a poor percentage when playing there. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams are two of the faster paced teams in the MVC. Most teams in this league slow the game down, but these are two that like to play quickly when they can. The first game between these two went to 145 points and with this being their last game of the regular season I see this one being played at a slightly faster pace with neither side being too interested defensively. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Here's a game that means little to either team with the conference tourney starting up in the middle of the week. Both teams prefer to play quickly and have next to no defense. Austin Peay should put up a big number against this hapless SEMO State defense. The pace should be enough to get this one above 150. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and Rice Owls played to a 168 final in their first meeting this year. The pace in that game was very fast (77 possessions). Rice is one of the worst defenses in the country, and LA Tech's offense should get easy transition looks. Both of these teams get to the line a bunch and that's a big help also. I had this one at 162. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers have shot the ball extremely well this year. Charlotte has put up more than 100 points in their last 3 home games. UTEP is one of the fastest paced teams in Conference USA, and the Miners have been much better offensively late in the year than earlier. This line dipped just enough for this to be a play. With a 6 point spread- a foul fest late is certainly a possibility. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos are likely to be without James Webb in this game. He's a do everything type of player, and they will badly miss him in this game. Webb injured his knee late in the team's win over UNLV. Boise State's offense struggled badly at home against this SD State defense, and there is no reason to expect them to be good without Webb and on the road. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Duquesne Dukes definitely know how to push the tempo. Duquesne is a high scoring team who doesn't play much defense. Richmond has picked up their pace a great deal this year, and I think this should be a competitive game. Both teams have the ability to score in bunches. Duquesne often shoots excellent percentages on their home floor, and Richmond's offense is very efficient. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under is 41-16 in C of C's last 57 games. The under is 8-0 in their 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Hofstra has plenty to play for here with the CAA title on the line for them, so expect them to be working hard on the defensive end as well. A low scoring game. Take the under.