Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star Warriors/Cavs MONEY* The Golden State Warriors rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past eight games. The Cleveland Cavaliers rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 8 games. 

The Warriors are obviously going to look to push the tempo, but the Cavs aren't running of late. Cleveland is 24th in the NBA in tempo in the past ten games. I think they'll look to slow this one down a bit.

Golden State is certainly a different team with Durant, but it is interesting to note that the highest total in the past ten meetings between these two teams has been 211 points. Only one of the last ten games between these two has gone above 216 points. 

The under is 30-13-1 since 2005 in NBA games on Christmas Day. This makes sense because many teams celebrate the day before with their families. 

This number is too high for me to pass up. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Christmas Day BEST Bet* The Boston Celtics and New York Knicks play the noon eastern game on Christmas Day. This is a tremendous spot for an under. The under is actually 7-2 in the last 9 early games on Christmas Day. One of the two that went over did so by half a point. 

The NBA has Christmas Eve off, which means the players generally celebrate Christmas with their families on Christmas Eve. The quick turnaround to have to play an early game on Christmas makes for a sloppy game played at a slower pace than normal. That should be the case again this year. 

I think the only way this one goes off is both teams shooting it really well from the floor. In their last ten games, the Knicks are 19th in offensive efficiency and the Celtics are 22nd in that category. Defensively, Boston is 5th in the NBA and the Knicks are 17th.

Overall on Christmas Day, the under is 30-13-1 since 2005. We'll look for the early game to stay under the posted total again. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Memphis has been able to win this year solely because of their defense, because the offense hasn't been any good. Memphis is actually the second worst offense in the NBA in efficiency, only the Philadelphia 76ers have been worse.

It is surprising to see Houston playing some defense this year. Houston ranks in the top half of the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Rockets are playing fast, but they are only 9th in the NBA in pace, which is a little slower than I would have expected. Memphis plays at the 28th quickest pace out of 30 teams in the league. 

The 3 referees calling this game have solid long term under trends. With this being the last day before the Christmas break for these teams, I see this being a good spot to play the under. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates have dramatically slowed their tempo in the last few games. Early in the season they were averaging about 75 possessions per game. In their last four games, they are averaging 69 possessions per game. That's a big difference, and it is why they have played some low scoring games of late.

Rutgers has a new coach who is doing a great job, and he has the team playing defense. Rutgers was 282nd out of 351 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 18th so far this year! Quite the turnaround. 

Rutgers is playing at about 65 or 66 possessions per game of late, and I think this game should be around the 67 or 68 possessions mark. Both teams would need to shoot it better than their season averages to get to this total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Idaho Vandals offense is about as bad as you'll find. Idaho has twice scored less than 50 points in a game this year, and now they are going up against the best defense they have played this year. I expect Idaho to have a very low point total in this one. The Vandals play a unique defense that slows the game down, and Stanford will be happy to play at a slow pace.

The Cardinal rank 27th in defensive efficiency in the nation. They rank 192nd in offensive efficiency. Idaho is 160th in defensive efficiency and 266th in offensive efficiency. 

Stanford was blown out by SMU in their last game and I imagine they have a bad taste in their mouth from that one. I think that shows up with a strong effort on the defensive end. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Red Hot CASH* The UT Arlington Mavericks have changed the way they play this year. UT Arlington ranked 22nd in average possession length on offense last year, so they were running and gunning. This year they are 171st in the country in that same metric. They are playing at an average pace on offense. 

Importantly, UT Arlington is very good on defense this year. They rank 60th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are slowing down the opponent a lot with strong man defense. 

Loyola Marymount has been slowing everyone down of late. They made two extremely fast paced teams in Portland State and Cal State Northridge slow down drastically in recent weeks. That shows me a lot. Loyola is great at dictating the pace, and they are the slower paced team here. Since UT Arlington has played slower games of late though, I expect them to be fine with the slower tempo.

Expect the slower pace to rule the day here.

I have this game at 134 points. That gives us plenty of value here. Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rider Broncs have decided to play a much faster tempo. They were #261 in average length of possession last year. So far this year, they are #57 in the country. The Broncs have had at least 77 possessions in four of their last six games. If you are playing games at 77 possessions, you are playing at a blazing fast tempo.

UMass is always glad to run. The Minutemen have already had four games played at a pace of 78 possessions or faster this year. I think this will be their fifth. 

Both Umass and Rider have had some trouble shooting the ball, and that is what keeps this from being a bigger play, but I have to make a play on a game when a total is in the mid 140's and I expect a tempo of 79 possessions. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The South Florida Bulls are without arguably their two best offensive players. Jahmal McMurray was their best player, and he has decided to quit the team, so that is a huge hit for them especially on offense. Troy Holston is out with an injury and he was taking 21% of the team's shots.South Florida scored only 48 points last game when both of these guys were out of the lineup. 

Delaware can't win without making the game sloppy and keeping it low scoring. The Blue Hens rank 315th in the nation in offensive efficiency. South Florida ranks 313th in offensive efficiency. Basically, this should be a really ugly game that would be no fun to watch, but I do see value in betting the under in this one. 

I had this total at 125 points. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters definitely burned me when I played an under with them yesterday, but I'm going back again today. Yesterday's game was their highest scoring of the season by a large margin. Akron canned 15 three pointers in that game. They aren't playing a good offensive team today, and the total is posted higher because of yesterday's high score, which I believe is an aberration. 

UC Irvine's average length of possession is 313th out of 351 in terms of pace. They definitely slow the game down. Their offense is weak while generally their defense is good. UTEP ranks 231st in possession length. 

The tempo should be slow here and barring some high shooting marks, I like this one to stay under. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials are playing without Yuta Watanabe. He averaged 16.75 points per game in the games he played so far this year. Offensively, the team is definitely weaker without him. George Washington now takes on the best defense they have faced this year.

Miami ranks fourth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Hurricanes have a lot of length all over the floor, and they contest most shots very well. The Hurricanes last 7 games have all finished under this posted total. 

George Washington and Miami both like to play at a slow tempo. I think that will continue here. I also like that both teams are near the top of the charts in playing defense without fouling. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The Oregon State Beavers are changing up the way they play. Oregon State is looking to stall the game out as much as possible. Oregon State Coach Wayne Tinkle recent said as much. The team just doesn't have enough ball handling and offensive firepower not to get into fast paced games that are high scoring.

Oregon State could play faster last year with Gary Payton Jr., but things are much different now.

Oregon State played a 58 possession game against Portland in their last game. Why is that important? Portland pushes the pace a lot more than Kent State does, and yet Oregon State slowed that game down to a 53-45 final.

I think there is a lot of value here while the oddsmakers adjust to this new style of play for Oregon State.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The South Carolina Gamecocks rank third in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have proven multiple times how good they are on defense. They allowed only 69 points in an overtime game against fast paced Monmouth. They allowed only 46 points against a very good Michigan offense. They allowed only 50 points against a good Syracuse team.

South Carolina is without star Sindarius Thornwell right now. That hurts them the most on offense, where he was the guy the offense ran through. 

Clemson always ranks high on the defensive end under Brad Brownell. Brownell is a defensive-minded coach, and he has some talented players with length on the perimeter this year. South Carolina hasn't been playing many teams that are this good on defense so far this year.

This is a big rivalry game and there is a history of low scoring contests in this series. The last seven games have all stayed under this posted total. In fact, only one of those games has topped 128 points. Too much value to pass up on the under.

The under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two. The under is 4-0 in the Gamecocks last 4 home games. The under is 7-0 in S Carolina's last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Clemson's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters don't have star Luke Nelson. He hasn't played yet this year, this offense is lost without him. Irvine is doing their best to slow the game down and win with defense. They have played a lot of low scoring games this year, even when they are playing against a team with a fast tempo.

Akron is playing much slower this year. The Zips do shoot the ball well so that is a bit of a concern, but UC Irvine's defense is better than average.

Another factor that helps us here is this is being played on a neutral floor. It is UTEP's home floor, which is obviously a place neither of these teams normally play at. That helps the under because of the different shooting backdrop and general unfamiliarity.

I had this game totaled at 133 points. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers and the Illinois Fighting Illini have a pretty solid rivalry. These teams take pride in this game, and it will be hard fought. 

In the last three contests between these two the final scores have been 65-64, 62-59, and 68-63. All comfortably under this posted total. 

A big factor here is that this game is played at the Scottrade Center. This is well known to be a terrible gym for jumpshooters. The shooting backdrop is very difficult. This isn't a place where these two teams are accustomed to playing, so it is likely we will see some below average shooting.

Missouri is looking to push the pace this year, but they rank 313th in effective field goal percentage. On the other hand, the Tigers rank ninth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a team that fights hard, but isn't good at scoring. 

Illinois has slowed down their tempo a lot from last year, and they are the better team.

I think this one stays around 130. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The over has value here because both of these teams should be able to take advantage of their opponents weakness on defense. 

Quinnipiac is a team that relentlessly crashes the offensive boards. The team sends everyone after the offensive board, and that leaves them in some terrible positions when it comes to transition defense. The Bobcats are one of the worst transition defenses in the country.

On the other side, Drexel is terrible at defensive rebounding. The Dragons have given up a bunch of second chance points against far lesser offensive rebounding teams than Quinnipiac. 

I think this means that Drexel will get a lot of run out opportunities when they do get the defensive rebound, which will lead to quick scores. At the same time, Quinnipiac should be able to get a bunch of second chance points which are huge for the over as well.

I had this number in the mid 160's. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Colorado Bears want to play fast under Jeff Linder. They have picked up the tempo in their last three games, and I expect them to keep going here.

UC Riverside has been terrible on offense this year, but they have played the 16th toughest schedule in the country. They have gone up against teams like Utah, UCLA, and UNLV. The Highlanders are playing at an average pace, it is just their shooting numbers have been atrocious on the year. I don't think they are a good shooting team, but they aren't as bad as their numbers so far. 

With both teams here ranking in the bottom 100 in field goal percentage defense, I think this is a game where we see both teams shoot better than their season average. Because UC Riverside has shot the ball so poorly, this total has dropped several points, and now I believe it is a solid value.

Last year these two teams played to a 143 total. Both teams are playing faster this year. Take the over here. 

*3 Star CBB Under Radar CASH* The Green Bay Phoenix play at the 7th quickest tempo of any team in the country. It isn't very often that you'll see a total this low on one of their games. SIU Edwardsville is a team that typically plays to the pace of the opponent. Overall, on the year SIU Edwardsville ranks 105th in tempo out of 351 teams, so they are pretty quick as well.

I think we are getting value from both teams recent games. Green Bay just lost 73-59 to Wisconsin. Wisconsin isn't going to let anyone run, and it shouldn't be a surprise that the game was lower scoring there. Edwardsville is coming off a low scoring game against St. Louis. I had the under in that one and cashed, but the primary reason for the under was St. Louis and their slow style of play. In this one, Edwardsville goes up against a team that wants to run in a big way.

This number has been bet down to the point where I see value. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Marquette Golden Eagles have been tremendous on offense this year. Marquette ranks 18th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles have scored over 100 points twice this year. They have scored 81 points or more in 8 of their 10 games this year.

Marquette will be up against a very weak defense in this one. St. Francis (PA) comes into this one ranked 319th in defensive efficiency on the year, and that is despite the fact that they have played one of the weakest schedules in the country. Marquette will easily be the best team they have faced so far. Lehigh put up 100 on St. Francis two games ago.

Marquette is pushing the pace in a big way, and so far this year St. Francis has been pushing the issue as well. I think Marquette puts up 100 in this one, and St. Francis gets us enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CBB Sunday Night Totals MONEY* The Washington Huskies are averaging 93 points per game on their home floor this year. Washington plays at the seventh quickest tempo of any team in the country. 

Washington plays against a weak Western Michigan defense here. The Broncos are 339th in effective field goal percentage defense out of 351 teams in the country. Western Michigan already allowed 91 points against a Boise State team that doesn't run very much. They also allowed 97 points at home against UNC Wilmington.

Western Michigan should be able to score enough here. Washington's defense ranks 206th in defensive efficiency, so they aren't good on this end either. 

With the pace and the defenses, I'll take this one over the posted total. 

*5 Star College Hoops TOP Play of the Week* The Fairfield Stags like to play fast. Sydney Johnson's team went 7-24 two years ago and before last season he decided it was time to try something different. That was speeding up the tempo. It helped the team to a 19-14 year last year. Fairfield is 5-3 so far this year, and they are running once again.

NC State has picked up the pace drastically this year. The Wolfpack are playing about 3 possessions per game faster than last season. Dennis Smith is the main reason for that change. Smith is an extraordinary freshman point guard with tons of speed. He is a great distributor, and can get to the rack when he needs to as well. 

The thing that intrigues me quite a bit here is how bad the offenses have been that Fairfield has played so far this year. Fairfield's defense looks decent on paper, but the Stags haven't played an offense ranked higher than 88th in offensive efficiency so far this year. NC State ranks 36th in the nation in offensive efficiency. I think NC State can put up a bunch of points in this spot. 

The Wolfpack defense has only been mediocre on the year. They rank 113th in defensive efficiency. Fairfield should score a solid amount based on the tempo of the game here.

The over is 12-4 in NC State's last 16 home games. 

I think this game gets into the upper 150's, so I see a lot of value here. Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Over* All signs point to an absolute track meet on the floor in this one. Kentucky is shooting at the fourth fastest pace of any team in the country. North Carolina is 12th so far this year. The next time I see Roy Williams slow a game down will be the first time. Williams was asked about whether he would slow the pace down this week and unequivocally said no way. 

De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk are great at pushing the pace for Kentucky. Fox has been one of the best players in the country this year.

Kentucky has scored 87 points or more in all but one game so far this year. North Carolina has scored 93 points or more in 6 of 11 games this season.

It is a neutral court which is a slight negative for the over, but that is being factored in too much in my opinion. This is must see television, and I think we see a close game with both teams getting up into the 80's. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The St. Louis Billikens figured out that they cannot run the type of offense that Travis Ford wanted to run when he came over. He'll get players later on that can run more, but right now this offense is way too bad to be trying to run the floor. They have to settle down and stall the game out. They have done that in their last two games and Coach Ford has suggested they need to keep doing that. Jermaine Bishop missed last game. He is the team's best player. He is questionable for this one.

SIU Edwardsville has been up and down as far as their point production on the year, but last game they lost 49-44 to Missouri Western State. Wow.

Edwardsville and St. Louis are two of the least efficient offenses in the country, and when you put them together I think we will see a very sloppy game where neither team gets into an offensive rhythm. 

I had this one at 130 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UIC Flames took a huge hit when their star Dikembe Dixson went down with a season ending injury last game. The entire offense ran through Dixson and he took about 1/3 of the team's shots. No one on the team can match his slashing ability, and that is what had them living at the line so far this year.

Loyola Chicago always looks to slow the game down. Last year, Loyola was able to get the matchup between these two teams played at their tempo. The final was 64-47. I don't expect it to be that low this year, but 149 is too high.

UIC will still try to play fast, but their offensive efficiency level will be way down without Dixson the rest of the year. Loyola is favored by several here, and they are great at slowing the game down when they have the lead.

Also note that Loyola is great at playing defense without fouling and UIC relies heavily on getting to the lien.

I think a total in the low 140's would have made sense. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado State Rams are playing noticeably slower this year. They have a less experienced team, and I imagine Larry Eustachy has slowed things down on purpose. On the other hand, Colorado State is much better on defense than they were a year ago. This is a tall team with length on the perimeter, and they are making it tough on opponents backcourts.

The Kansas State Wildcats defense is good every year, and this year is no different. Bruce Weber is a defensive minded coach first. Kansas State ranks in the bottom 50 in the country in overall tempo, and with Colorado State not pushing the issue, the tempo should be very slow here.

Without some really good shooting numbers from these teams, I think we'll see a game that stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Arizona Wildcats only have 7 players healthy right now. They can't push the tempo, because they have to stay fresh. They have slowed things down quite a bit in recent games.

Texas A&M is without Danuel House and Jalen Jones, their top two players from last year. Because of that, the team is playing a much slower pace and playing a lot of low scoring games this year. Texas A&M held UCLA to only 74 points, by far their lowest point output of the season, so that shows you how well they can slow down the opposition.

This game is being played at noon eastern, or 11 am central. This is a really early game for both of these teams. Also, it is played in the Toyota Center, which is noted for being one of the worst shooting backdrops in the country. It is especially difficult for guys who never play there, and obviously neither of these teams play there normally. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star CBB TGIF Play of Day* The Oregon State Beavers were embarrassed by losing at home to lowly Savannah State in their last game. Co-captain and coaches son Tres Tinkle gave an emotional speech to the team after the game. Both Wayne (Dad and Coach) and Tres talked this week about the importance of focusing on defense. Oregon State hasn't been strong enough on defense this year. 

Tres Tinkle is injured right now, and he is no doubt the team's best player. He knew he had to step up and light a fire into his teammates though. Coach Tinkle said he believes the Beavers defense has been "atrocious" of late. Tinkle also said some other important things to an Oregon State beat writer this week. He said he wants the team to slow down and play a much slower tempo in order to limit offensive mistakes and help opponents not get out in transition against them.

Oregon State actually held Savannah State to their slowest pace of the year by far, so they started the slower pace last game. They play Long Beach State in this one. Long Beach State has some ugly defensive numbers this year, but that is primarily because they have played the number one ranked schedule in the country. Long Beach State will be middle of the road in defense by the end of the year. 

Long Beach State is playing at a slower tempo than they did last year, so I don't think they'll push the issue too much here. 

With a bigger effort on defense from Oregon State and two inefficient offenses, I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* This posted total is too high for me to overlook. The Raptors and Hawks met earlier this year and the posted total was 207. That game finished with 212 points. Toronto won by a whopping margin of 128-84. 

Toronto has been putting up some massive point totals of late, and that has contributed to this line. Still, it is important to point out that Toronto ranks 23rd in the NBA in pace. Atlanta ranks 5th in tempo.

Atlanta is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. While they have been poor on defense lately, I think they show some pride here after giving up 128 points to Toronto last time. If there was ever a time to work hard on defense, this is it for Atlanta.

Also important is the fact that Atlanta is 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Hawks have a hard time scoring a ton of points because they take too many poor shots.

In the past few years, the normal total for a meeting between these two teams has been about 205 points. I can't pass up the value when we see a total this high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The FIU Panthers are using up 19.4 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. That means on offense they are 337th fastest out of 351 teams. Clearly, they are looking to slow the game down and keep it low scoring. FIU just isn't very good on offense. The Panthers don't have a go to scorer, and they don't get to the line much at all.

Georgia Southern has slowed their pace down from last year. The Eagles have made defense a priority this year. This team was really weak on defense, but so far this year they are up to average on that side of the ball. 

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the nation in free throw attempts. I think this one is a few points too high. 

I'll take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The DePaul Blue Demons host the UIC Flames in a battle of two teams from Chicago on Wednesday night. Last year when these two teams played the final was 79-52, but that doesn't tell the whole story. The pace was ridiculously fast at 79 possessions. UIC scored only 0.70 points per possession in that game. The Flames offense was very inefficient last year, but they are much better on offense this season.

UIC averaged less than 0.89 points per possession last year, but this year they average almost 1.01 points per possession. That's a huge difference, and this team is playing at the 18th fastest tempo of any team in the country. UIC gets to the line more often than any other team in the country (out of 351 teams). 

DePaul has played a bunch of teams who look to slow the tempo down. This will be the first team to really push the pace against DePaul. I think that gives us value on the number here. DePaul ranks in the top 40 in the nation in free throws attempted as well, and both of these teams foul more than the average college basketball team. 

My numbers had this one at 160 points. I think both teams make a living at the charity stripe and the pace is very quick. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Illinois Salukis host the St. Louis Billikens here. Travis Ford wanted to play an uptempo style of basketball with his St. Louis team, but he is quickly realizing he can't do it yet. Why? St. Louis is awful on offense. Pushing the tempo gives them very little chance to win because the opponent is almost always a more efficient offense.

St. Louis has scored 64 points or less in 7 of their 9 games this year. That is despite the fact that they played their first four games at a blazing fast tempo. Take a look at their last game against lowly Chicago State. St. Louis won that game 45-43 and scored a grand total of two points in the last 9:38 of that game! 

Southern Illinois is weak this year as well without Anthony Beane who was their star scorer a year ago. The Salukis rank 303rd in the country in pace out of 351 teams. They will want to play slowly here, and I think St. Louis will be happy with that also based on their recency.

I think this is a game that stays around 130. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Morehead State Eagles and the Eastern Washington Eagles meet on Tuesday night. I understand why the total is high here, both teams struggle on the defensive end. Still, I think this one has gotten a little too high to pass up. 

Morehead State ranks 250th in tempo on the offensive side alone (the time it takes them to put up a shot when they have possession). Eastern Washington ranks 318th out of 351 teams in the country. Clearly, both teams are looking to slow the game down. In a game between two teams that slow the game down this much, this total in the mid 150's is very high.

It will take some really impressive shooting numbers to get this one past the posted total. I think both teams will shoot it pretty well, but not well enough. 

One thing that likely helps inflate this total is the fact that Eastern Washington has played three overtime games this year. Two of them have gone into double overtime. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Drexel Dragons are playing much quicker under first year head coach Zach Spiker. The Dragons are shooting it in an average of 15.5 seconds each time they get the ball. That is 42nd fastest in the country out of 351 teams.

St. Joe's plays at an average pace. The Hawks have played several good defensive teams of late, and their offensive numbers have been hit hard because of that. Drexel will be the worst defensive team they have played in a long time.

St. Joe's has some good long range shooters, and Drexel has struggled all year to get out on shooters. Look for a game that gets close to 150 points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is definitely a rivalry game, and I think that helps the under. These teams will be working hard on the defensive end in this one. They played once already this year and the total finished at 131. I think this one finishes in the 130's as well.

New Mexico State likes to slow the game down. This game is on their home floor, so I expect them to be able to get their tempo even better than they did in game one between these teams.

New Mexico relies heavily on getting to the line for their offense, and I think they'll get less attempts at the line in this game since they are on the road. New Mexico is slower on offense than they were a year ago by a lot. 

Both teams lost their top offensive player from last year. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs are still playing relatively slow. There are a couple things different about this team so far this year though. One- they are much weaker on the defensive end. They were 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 51st this year. Second- they are much more efficient on the offensive end. They were 170th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 90th in offensive efficiency this year.

Arizona State will push the tempo here. The Sun Devils have played only one game that finished lower than 145 points so far this year. That was a 68-60 loss to Davidson where both teams shot the ball horribly. Arizona State has multiple good three point shooters, and that should help them against San Diego State. 

This number has gotten too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks went away from running and gunning in the early season, but recent games suggest they are back to playing really fast again. UNC Wilmington has scored at least 97 points in each of their last three games, and the tempo in those games has been on average more than 10 possessions higher than their tempo through their first five games.

They face a St. Bonaventure team who is attempting to play faster this year. They are 71st in the nation in tempo. So far, it has worked out nicely. The Bonnies are 6-2 with some pretty decent wins. They have scored a minimum of 81 points in each of their last five games. 

Another key point here is that both teams do a lot of fouling. These teams both rank in the top 1/4 of teams in the country in fouling, and that should lead to a bunch of time at the charity stripe in this game. 

I think this game should get close to 160. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have only had one game fall below this posted total all year. Oklahoma State ranks in the top five in the country in terms of tempo. Oklahoma State has only failed to score 90 points in a game twice so far this year. 

Tulsa has some major issues handling pressure, and that is exactly what they'll get all game from Oklahoma State all game in this one. Oklahoma State forces the 5th most turnovers of any team in the country. The Cowboys should force a bunch here, and they'll turn them into transition opportunities.

I believe Oklahoma State is the better team here, and I think they'll get the lead and play this game at their pace. Tulsa will have to play quickly to try to catch up.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* IN 5 of Purdue's 9 games so far this year, they have scored 85 points or more. Purdue is playing much quicker than they did a year ago. They rank about 100 spots faster in tempo overall in the country than they did a year ago. Purdue faces a really weak defense here in Cleveland State. The Vikings are terrible on the defensive glass, and Purdue will get a ton of second chance points in this game. 

Cleveland State coach Gary Waters is telling his team to pick up the tempo this year. They are playing about 3 possessions per game faster than a year ago. Demonte Flanigan is arguably Cleveland State's best offensive player. He missed the team's first few games, but is back and playing well. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Early Start TOP Total* The Temple Owls and DePaul Blue Demons both prefer a slow tempo. Temple ranks 225th in tempo so far on the year, and DePaul ranks 251st out of 351 teams. I see no reason to believe that either team will push the pace in this one either.

There are several reasons other than just tempo that I think this is a great bet. First, this game starts at 11:30 am. It doesn't always work this way, but in the long run there is no doubt that an abnormally early game is a positive for points. It's a good thing for unders. DePaul is in Illinois and on central time, so on their body clocks it will be a 10:30 start time.

Another big positive for the under here is this game is played at a neutral site. It is actually at American Airlines Arena in Miami (where the Heat play). This is obviously a big arena and these teams aren't accustomed to playing there. Again, this is a great thing for the under. It's hard to jump onto a new floor with shooting backdrops you aren't accustomed to, and play in front of a very small crowd.

I think this game will be more sloppy than the average game, and this line is at least 10 points off from reality.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels definitely have an efficient offense, but it is hard for them to get to a total this high with the tempo they play at. St. Mary's is 350th in overall tempo out of 351 teams in the nation. They are using up more than 20 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. 

UT Arlington has slowed down their pace this year. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted for that yet. UT Arlington was previously one of the fastest teams in the country, but so far this year they are playing at only an average tempo. UT Arlington is better on defense than most teams St. Mary's has gone up against so far this year. 

St. Mary's is likely too good for UT Arlington, and that's a good thing for the under. St. Mary's is one of the best teams you will find in the country at "taking the air out of the ball." The Gaels should be able to do that here and keep this one under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen have played five straight games that finished under this posted total. I think that has set us up for some great value here. There was an early steam move on the under here, and I'm glad to take the lower price.

UMass has played five straight teams that look to slow down the tempo. This time they are up against a Pacific team that wants to run as well. That's very important here. Pacific ranks 127th in tempo overall. That is much faster than any of UMass' last five opponents. 

UMass ranks 9th in the country in overall pace, and they will continue to push the issue here.

Another important point is the rate at which both teams foul. UMass and Pacific both rank among the top 20 teams in the country in most fouls committed. There should be a bunch of trips to the charity stripe in this one.

UMass thrives on using full court pressure to get steals and quick baskets. Pacific is expected to be without their point guard in this game. Look for plenty of easy baskets and a lot of time spent in the bonus.

I think this one gets to about 150 or higher. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* The line here has gotten so low that I have to make a big play on the over. Idaho is definitely a team that struggles to score, but here they are up against the fastest paced team they have played yet this year.

Washington State isn't likely to let Idaho turn this into a 55-50 type game. Washington State has only played two games all year that finished at less than 150 points! Their last game against New Orleans was the slowest tempo the team has played at this year, and Coach Ernie Kent wasn't happy about it either. They should be pushing the tempo in this one.

Idaho is pretty good defensively, but they are very foul happy. That helps this one a lot since Washington State is great at getting to the line. Both teams rank in the top 100 in the nation in most free throw attempts so far this year.

With one team pushing the pace and both teams getting to the line, I like this over quite a bit at this low of a price.

Take the over big.

*4 Star Play Under* The Wright State Raiders are certainly playing faster this year, but this price is too high for me to pass up taking the under. Loyola Chicago has a long history of slowing the tempo down and winning with strong defense. Loyola doesn't attack the basket, rather they settle for a lot of long range shots.

On the other side, Wright State is very dependent on getting to the foul line. The Raiders aren't very good from the floor, but they are in the top 25 at getting to the free throw line. Loyola Chicago doesn't foul much at all, and with this game at Loyola I think Wright State will get fewer free throws than they have in most games this year.

I think this game ends at about 140 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls typically play at a relatively slow pace under Fran Dunphy. In the last couple years, this is a team that has been much more efficient on the defensive end than the offensive end. They are a little better on offense this year, but I still consider Temple a defense first team.

George Washington and Temple both come in solidly in the bottom half of college basketball in terms of tempo. There isn't any reason to expect either team to get out in transition all that much in this game. Instead, it should be played in the halfcourt, where both defenses are very good.

Both of these teams rank in the top 60 in the country in least fouls committed. That's definitely a good thing for the under.

Both of these teams have slowed their pace down of late, and I like that trend. The recency of both teams allows me to project this one at about 67 possessions. At that pace, it would take some very good shooting numbers to send this one past the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes want to run more this year. They rank 97th out of 351 teams in the country in terms of tempo. Utah Valley ranks 4th in the country in tempo, so they are certainly going to try to run in this one. I think we will see a track meet here.

Utah Valley is great from three point range. The Wolverines shoot almost 39% from 3. The one weakness of the Utah defense is defending beyond the arc. I think Utah Valley hurts them a lot from long range tonight.

On the other side, Utah Valley doesn't have nearly enough size on the interior. Utah is a great offensive rebounding team, and I expect a bunch of second chance opportunities for them in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have made it a goal to play much faster this year. The Bonnies are 89th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. Hofstra has always been a team that prefers to run under Coach Joe Mihalich. 

In their last 3 games, Hofstra has scored 89, 88, and 88 points. They should be able to take advantage of a St. Bonaventure defense that gives up a lot of second chance points and fouls a lot as well. Hofstra makes a living at the line, and I expect a lot of points from the line from them here.

St. Bonaventure has scored 102, 89, 81 and 90 points in their last four games. This is a team that should be high scoring all year long.

With tempo and a lot of trips to the line, I see this line a few points too low. Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* This is a really interesting game to handicap. Savannah State decided before the season to change their style to try to play at the single fastest tempo of any team in the country. They are doing it so far. They are shooting in an average of only 12 seconds each time they get the ball. That is lightning quick.

What has that meant for their scores? Savannah State hasn't played a game all season that has finished below 169 points. They have played three games that have had 200 points or more total.

Oregon should be able to put up 100 points here without even trying to run up the score. The Ducks have been slowed down tempo wise by multiple teams this year, and here is their chance to go back to their normal quick paced ways.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Penn State Nittany Lions have decided to play at a quicker tempo this year. Penn State ranked 311th in the speed at which they put up a shot on average last year. So far this year, they rank 16th in the country. That's a huge difference. They host a Wright State team coached by Scott Nagy, and he is pushing his team to play fast and get to the rim this year.

Wright State is 51st in the nation (out of 351 teams) in overall pace. The Raiders are getting to the line 15th most in the country. This Raiders offense is shooting an impressive 40% from long range as well. 

Six of Wright State's eight games so far this year have gone over this total, and most of them haven't been very close. 

I think we see an uptempo game here. I have this one getting to the mid 150's. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are going to play fast this year. This is a team that has a lot of good outside shooters. The Bonnies have scored 81 points or more in four of their six games this year. They'll be up against a Buffalo team that ranks 61st in overall tempo. St. Bonaventure is 83rd in overall tempo. This game should be played at a quick pace.

Buffalo has turnover problems on offense, and I expect St. Bonnie to pick up some full court pressure here to create easy baskets. 

Both of these teams are fouling a lot this year, and a lot of trips to the free throw line should be expected in this one. 

I think this one is several points too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The LA Monroe Warhawks are always a team that likes to slow the game down. Chattanooga has been the same way the last couple years. So far this year, Chattanooga has played several teams that speed up the game and that has skewed their totals higher. When you play Tennessee and North Carolina, that will make your stats a little off. 

LA Monroe won't be pushing the pace here, and I don't think LA Monroe will be able to score very much here against a good defensive team that has a lot more size than they do. 

My number for this game was 131 points. Look for Chattanooga to grab an early lead and win a game that stays under the posted total. Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The Villanova Wildcats have a really efficient offense. This team was ridiculously efficient in the NCAA Tournament last year, and that won them the title. Their effective field goal percentage is even a little bit better so far this year. Villanova can pile up the points per possession. They average almost 1.2 points per possession. 

St. Joe's is way down from a year ago, and I think Villanova will put up a pretty big number here. The Hawks are down most on the defensive end. Martelli's St. Joe's team is playing at a slightly quicker pace than the average team so far this year.

Villanova's defensive efficiency is down just a bit from last year as well.

This kind of total is just too low with a Villanova offense involved and against a team that won't try to stall the entire game. I had this totaled at 137 points. 

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes have decided to play much faster this year. They were 279th in tempo on the offensive end (time it took to get a shot up on average) last year. This year they are 84th in the same statistic. 

Montana State ranks 59th in overall tempo so far this year. The Bobcats have played only one game all year that finished below this posted total. Montana State shoots the 3 ball very well, and they put up a bunch of 3's. That isn't such a bad thing against Utah, since the one weakness of the Utes defense the last couple seasons has been defending beyond the arc. 

Utah is the 8th best rebounding team in the country, and they should get a bunch of second chance points in this one. The Utes halfcourt defense is clearly much weaker without Poeltl and Loveridge from last year's team.

I think this one is a few points too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins are playing at the 13th fastest tempo in the country. UCLA has a sensational point guard in Lonzo Ball. Ball is one of the best freshmen in the country, and he is worth watching on television whenever you get a chance. Besides being a tremendous player on his own, Ball has helped this team in a big way by getting Bryce Alford to move back to shooting guard where he is most comfortable. Alford has been forced into the point guard role in the past couple years, and he wasn't that good there. Alford has been great at shooting guard this year, and this UCLA offense has been amazing.

UCLA has scored 99 points or more in four of their seven games this year. The Bruins go up against a UC Riverside team that gave up 85 points to Utah the other night. UCLA should put up 90 or more in this one. 

UC Riverside has consistently been bad at defending the three-point line, and that isn't good against this UCLA team that is shooting 45.2% from distance.

UCLA has allowed 67 points or more in every game so far this year. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes are down a little bit offensively without Angel Rodriguez this year, but they are better on the defensive end. This is a team that looks to slow the tempo down every year, and this year is no different. 

Rutgers has a really good coach in Steve Pikiell. This Scarlet Knights team will be in over their heads here, but this team is much improved. Rutgers is playing very slowly and playing defense this year (something they didn't do a year ago). 

It's hard to imagine either team speeding the game up here. Miami will likely grab the lead and use up the shot clock even more late in the game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Cougars are an underrated team. Houston is 5-0 on the year, and I think they'll make a push to be in or close to in the NCAA Tournament this year. Houston has made a commitment on the defensive end this year. They were 179th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. This year they are 97th. 

Houston also controls the tempo of the game. They haven't played a game with the tempo above 71 possessions yet this year. The Cougars will use up the clock and pass the ball around a lot before putting up a shot. 

LSU is also focusing on defense, and the Tigers offense is a little less efficient without Ben Simmons. The Tigers no longer have the go to guy on offense. 

I had this total at 146 points. I see both defenses as improved and I think this total is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rhode Island Rams are back to playing a much faster paced game this year with EC Matthews healthy again. Matthews is the best player on this team, and he might be the best player in the Atlantic 10 Conference as well. Rhode Island doesn't waste trips on offense. They are great at taking care of the basketball. 

Last year's Valparaiso team ranked in the top ten in the country in defensive efficiency. This year's team ranks 72nd. Vashil Fernandez is gone, and without the great shot blocker by the rim, Valpo's defense is way down from a year ago. The Crusaders still have an elite scorer in Alec Peters, and as a team they are shooting 83.5% from the free throw line. Valpo's tempo is slightly faster than the average tempo in the country this year as well.

This total looks like it was made for a meeting between these two last year. Things have changed. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Detroit Pistons are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in the past five games. Stan Van Gundy is working hard to get his team to take care of the basketball and win with their defense. 

Charlotte plays at an average tempo, but the Hornets have played very good defense of late. In their last three contests, Charlotte ranks fourth best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In that same time frame, the Pistons are 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

The total has moved up to 200, where I'm comfortable taking the under. Two of the three referees in this game are solid under guys (Boland and Callahan) so that is another positive.

The under is 13-3 in the Pistons last 16 when on 2 days of rest. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 road games. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Monday MONEYMAKER* The Utah Jazz play at the slowest pace in the NBA. In fact, they play at the slowest pace in the NBA by more than two possessions per game. Minnesota ranks 21st in the NBA in terms of tempo. This game should be played at a slow pace throughout. 

Minnesota's defense hasn't been what it needs to be so far this year, but with Coach Thibodeau at the helm this defense will get better. I believe we have seen signs of them being better of late. The Timberwolves held Phoenix to only 85 points on Friday night. Phoenix plays very fast, so that was some good defense from Minnesota. Their home game against Boston last week where they allowed 99 was improvement too. Boston averages 104 points per game.

Utah is allowing only 92.8 points per game. In addition to playing slowly, Utah also ranks number one in the NBA in field goal percentage defense. Opponents are shooting only 42.3% against the Jazz.

The under is 5-1 in the Timberwolves last 6 games. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the NBA Northwest. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles consistently have one of the very worst defenses in the nation. This is a team that gives up ridiculously high shooting percentages. I don't expect things to be any different for them this season.

The key to this bet is Denver, and the way they are playing under new coach Rodney Billups. Denver was the second slowest paced team in the nation out of 351 teams last year. This year so far they are 81st in the nation in tempo. I think there is some value here until the oddsmakers adjust completely to this huge change. 

Two of Denver's three games have gotten into the 170's this year. I think this is a reasonable price on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* This is a really high total, but it still isn't high enough. Wisconsin Green Bay ranks in the top ten in the nation in tempo. Central Michigan coach Keno Davis said before the season he wants his team running and he expects them to finish in the top ten in the nation in points per game. Here's a great chance for them to run, and I think they will.

Green Bay's defensive numbers should slip from last year, and Central Michigan has a lot of shooters on their team. On the other hand, Central Michigan's defensive numbers are consistently near the bottom of the MAC. 

Up and down in this one with a track meet style of game. I think this one tops the 170 point mark. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green offense is terrible this year. North Texas is shooting 29.7% from long range and even more embarrasing 38.4% from two point range. The Mean Green are playing at an average tempo this year on offense, and they are mixing in zone to slow the opposition down.

Niagara has been a slow it down team the last couple years. They look to run the clock and get up a shot late in the timer. The Purple Eagles should slow the the pace of this game down. 

Neither team gets to the line very much and that is a big help here. While only 29% of the bets placed are on the under here, 71% of the money is on the under. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons play at the 24th fastest pace in the league, so they are more of a slow it down type team. The Clippers are 16th in the league in tempo, which is average. 

The Clippers rank second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Pistons rank 6th in defensive efficiency. 

The Clippers do have a very good offense, but the Pistons defense has been excellent at home this year. The under is 7-1 in the Pistons last 8 home games. 

In this one, I'm seeing only 38% of the bets placed on the under, but 71% of the money on the under. This looks like the sharp play.

Two of the three referees in this game (Blair and Kirkland) are two of the best under referees in the league.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Seton Hall Pirates offense should carve up this Quinnipiac defense. Quinnipiac allowed 82 points against Gonzaga last night, and Gonzaga had a bad shooting night. Quinnipiac allowed 86 against Columbia (slow tempo down) and 94 against Vermont (slow tempo team). 

Seton Hall likes to run when they can, and Quinnipiac Coach Tom Moore has said that he wants his team to play very fast this year and they should be in a lot of high scoring contests. 

The fact that this is a neutral venue lowers the total a bit, but I still had this one at 156-157 points. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers didn't return a single player who averaged more than 6 points per game last year. It is showing in the early season results. Milwaukee scored 54 points against Memphis and 59 points against DePaul in their first two games against Division I opponents. 

East Tennessee State put up 96 points against Fordham thanks to shooting better than 60% from the floor. They then scored 107 points against a Detroit team that will rank near the top of the country in terms of pace this year. Last game though, East Tennessee State scored only 59 points against UNC Wilmington.

Milwaukee is going to try to slow the pace of this game down. If you look at E Tennessee State's numbers from last year and this year, they are no faster than an average team, so I'm not sure they push the issue too much either. 

Barring some very high shooting numbers, I think this one stays under this posted total. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game tips off at 11 am in Las Vegas. This is a really tricky spot for both teams. Neither team is accustomed to playing this early in the day, which can be an issue for college kids. Secondly, this is right after the Thanksgiving holiday. While these teams weren't at home for the holiday, it was still an important day and it throws off the normal schedule. 

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks slow the tempo down, and I see them getting their way as far as the pace in this one. Fullerton usually plays against other teams that play quickly, but that isn't the case here. 

I think this total is shaded a few points too high, especially when you consider the situation in this one. Take the under. 

*5 Star College Hoops Thanksgiving Day TOP Play* The Gonzaga Bulldogs have a ton of depth this year. Mark Few said in the preseason that this is as much depth as he has ever had at Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have a tremendous bench that can play at almost as high of a level as the first team. Because of that, Gonzaga is looking to play quicker. The Bulldogs rank 44th in the country out of 351 teams in shortest amount of shot clock used before taking a shot. 

Quinnipiac couldn't score last year, and Coach Tom Moore got frustrated losing 56-52 type games constantly. He decided it was time to change the way the team played. Quinnipiac ranked 225th in time used to put up a shot last year. This year they are 48th quickest. That's a big change. 

Let's take a look at the results from the teams games so far this year. Gonzaga has had their games finish at 161 points, 117 points, and 179 points. The 117 was against San Diego State, who plays slowly and plays excellent defense. Still, Gonzaga has scored 92 and 109 points in their other two contests. 

Quinnipiac allowed 94 points to Vermont and 86 points to Columbia. Neither one of those teams play fast at all. Quinnipiac pushed the tempo and gave up a lot of easy scores. 

I see all this meaning that Gonzaga puts up a really big number here, and I think because of the quickness of the tempo, Quinnipiac will get enough. 

This is a good value based on two teams playing much different than they were a year ago. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted yet. 

I had this total at 161 points. Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Under* Coach Sampson said before the season the area he wanted this Houston team to work on the most was defense. He wants the defense to be much better than they were a year ago. In their two games against Division I opponents, Houston has allowed 56 and 52 points. This is a good spot for them to show the defensive improvement once again.

South Dakota wants to play quickly, and the Coyotes have scored at least 78 points in each of their games thus far. Still, they haven't played a good team yet this year. I think Houston will be a pretty big step up in class.

Houston likes playing at a slow pace, and I think there is a good chance Houston grabs the lead here and controls the tempo of the game. Houston is 301st out of 351 teams in terms of time they take before putting up a shot on average, so they are moving at a very slow tempo. 

This line is inflated by a few points. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Ole Miss Rebels always want to push the tempo. Andy Kennedy is a guy who doesn't believe in slowing the game down. Creighton ranked 38th fastest in terms of pace last year and this year they are 26th out of 351 in the nation.

Creighton has a much improved team this year, and they are going to pile up the points on a lot of teams this year. The Blue Jays are having no problems with the neutral court in St Thomas. In fact, Creighton scored 103 points on Washington State on Friday and 112 points on NC State yesterday. The Blue Jays had a star in Maurice Watson already, and now they added in transfer Marcus Foster. This is one of the best offensive teams in the country.

Ole Miss should be able to score in the paint here. The Rebels have a very good inside player in Saiz. Deandre Burnett is having a breakout year in the backcourt as well.

I think this one tops 170 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Red HOT CASH* The MTSU Blue Raiders shocked the basketball world by stunning Michigan State last March. They host Tennessee State for this one. This is an intrastate battle that should be a pretty heated contest. 

Dana Ford coaches Tennessee State, and in his first year at the program the Tigers went from 5 wins to 20 wins. Ford coached under Gregg Marshall at Wichita State, and he is preaching the importance of defense to his team. It has been working. Tennessee State is 3-0, and they haven't allowed more than 65 points in a game this year.

MTSU is always a good defensive team under coach Kermit Davis. These two teams met last year and the final score was 69-66.

Tennessee State's three games so far this year have finished at 142, 134, and 130 points. I think this total is a few points too high.

Look for the defenses to come through in this one. Take the under.  

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. Memphis ranks 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Grizzlies scored only 88 points against the Clippers in their first meeting this year, and I don't think they'll get above that number here either.The Clippers defense has been at its best at home so far this season.

Also, consider the pace that each of these teams are playing at right now. The Grizzlies play at 25th fastest pace out of 30 teams. The Clippers are at #15, right in the middle. With the Grizzlies offensive woes and the Clippers defensive greatness so far this year, it's hard to imagine the total being lined above 200, but it is. 

The under is 20-6 in the Clippers last 26 home games. The under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The UCSB Gauchos have gone with a slow paced offense ever since Bob Williams has been at the school. Williams uses a deliberate style on offense, and he has good guards who should be able to both control the tempo and take care of the basketball. 

San Francisco let Rex Walters go at the end of last year, and now Kyle Smith is the head coach here. Smith was the coach at Columbia. In each of his last four years at Columbia, his teams finished among the 40 slowest paced teams in the country (out of 351). He was quoted as saying before the season that he expects this Dons team to play at "a fairly slow pace."

One thing I've learned over the years of handicapping college hoops is almost no coach likes to admit their team is going to slow the game down. Everyone wants to say they'll play at a faster pace, even if that doesn't end up being the case. Smith was open about his team slowing the game down, which tells me a lot. 

In their first game, San Francisco played an 82-80 game against UIC, but that was about their opponent. UIC wants to make their games frenetic, and they were able to do it.

UCSB played to a sloppy 74-60 loss at home to Nebraska Omaha in their first game. The important part of that is UCSB definitely slowed the game down against an Omaha team that ranks in the top ten in tempo every year.

 Neither team should be pushing the pace here. I think we get this high of a line thanks to an overreaction to the San Francisco score in game one. Take the under big! 

*My number here was 138. This line has jumped and then dropped back down later today. I recommend this for a 5 star play as low as 142. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Under* The LSU Tigers beat Wofford 91-69 in their season opener. Wofford slowed the pace down successfully in that game, but LSU scored an amazing 1.36 points per possession. Wofford slowed the pace down to only 67 possessions. 

Southern Miss played almost as slow as anyone in the nation last year. The Golden Eagles will try their hardest to keep the tempo down in this one, because that is their only chance to stay close. Southern Miss played 28 games against Division I teams last year, and only three of them went over this posted total. Only two of them went over this posted total in regulation. Southern Miss didn't have a single game that went above 138 points in non-conference play last year. 

LSU will try to push the tempo, but I do expect them to get a big lead here, so later in the game they should be satisfied to slow things down a bit and take it easy on Southern Miss a little bit.

This number is too high for me to pass up. Take the under. 

*5 Star College Hoops TOP Play Total* The Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix shot the ball quicker than any other team in the country last year. Green Bay only used up 13.5 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. That's blazing quick tempo, and Coach Linc Darner wants to do exactly the same thing this year. In fact, he said he believes this year's team can be just as good on offense. 

Green Bay did lose a couple very important players in Carrington Love and Jordan Fouse. These guys were really good on both ends, but before this season, Coach Darner said the end he is concerned about is the defense. He believes he has the guys to keep the scoring going, but he isn't sure if this team can defend as well. 

Pacific has a new coach in Damon Stoudemire this year. He is well known from his playing days at Arizona and in the NBA. He wants to bring an uptempo style of play to Pacific. They will definitely get their chance to run as quick as they want to go in this one. Pacific just gave up 119 points to UCLA, so it is fair to say they have plenty of work to do on defense.

Both teams want to push the pace in a big way. With Pacific changing the way they play, I think this number is a good value. I expect a very high scoring contest. Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The NC Central Eagles have played a very slow paced style and tried to win with strong defense as long as LeVelle Moton has been their head coach. NC Central successfully slowed Marshall down to a 81-69 final in their opener. Marshall will play as fast as anyone in the country this year, and that's a very low scoring game for them. 

Ohio State scored 78 points in their opener, but that was because they shot 10/18 from 3 point range. The Buckeyes didn't try very hard to push the tempo in that game. 

Ohio State clearly has a big talent advantage here, and they should win comfortably. If you look back to last year, Ohio State was fairly consistent at taking their foot off the gas when winning big. Their big wins over Mt. St Mary's, Grambling, and South Carolina State were all played to a final total of 137 or lower.

Now that this number has been bet up, I see value on the under. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets should finish the season near the top of the list in terms of tempo in the NBA. Houston has played multiple teams of late who have looked to slow them down. They have played San Antonio twice and played Dallas twice as well. Those teams weren't wanting to run, and the Spurs play great defense. 

Now, Houston has a lowered number on the posted total because their recent games have been lower scoring. This time they get to take on the Philadelphia 76ers. Philly prefers a quick pace as well, and the 76ers are bad on defense. Houston should put up a big number in this one. 

The Philadelphia offense has been really inefficient this year, but they get to go up against a Houston defense that ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Philly should be able to get their points in this game as well.

Recency bias has led to this total being set a little too low. 

The over is 5-0 in the 76ers last 5 road games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 when playing on one day of rest. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more last game. A 14-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels and UMass Minutemen are similar teams in that their whole goal is to speed up the pace of the game. They'll get their wish in this one. 

Ole Miss played an 86-83 game in their season opener. UMass played a 90-76 game in their opener. I think this total is a few points too low. 

Neither team is particularly strong on the defensive end, and I think some easy transition buckets can be had in this one. UMass doesn't have any good shot blockers on the interior this year, and Ole Miss has only one. 

Early in the season we often see the fastest paced games of the season overall, and this game has the feel of one of them that could be extremely quick. Because both teams attack the basket well, free throws should be pretty common in this game as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Temple and LaSalle are both in Philadelphia. These two teams are city rivals, and I think the defenses show up ready to play. Usually in a game where there is more at stake, the tempo slows down and the scoring is lower. I think that will be the case in a game like this.

Look at last year's meeting where the final score was 62-49. That was no fluke. That game was played at a pace of only 57 possessions. That is extremely slow in this era. This might be a little quicker than that, but even at 59 or 60 possessions, it would take some very good shooting numbers to get past this posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers always play the same style under Brad Brownell. They are going to look to slow the tempo down and win with their defense. They always do. Clemson lost 71-48 last year to Georgia. This total has been bet up to a level where I have to play the under. 

Georgia is a better team on defense than offense as well. The Bulldogs play at a slightly slower tempo than the average team. Georgia isn't going to dictate the pace in this game.

I think this is a spot where almost all totals in college hoops are being bet up, and this one has just gotten too high. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The New York Knicks host the Utah Jazz at noon eastern on Sunday afternoon. This is a spot where I like to take the under. New York City is a huge city with a ton of things to do. There can be some late nights and early mornings in situations like this, which often leads to sluggish games with poor shooting percentages. 

New York has mainly played against teams who like to play fast this year, and they have had some very high scoring games. In this one, they'll be up against the Utah Jazz, who play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. In fact, the Jazz games so far this year have had about 2.5 possessions fewer than any other team in the NBA.

Utah is a defensive-minded team, and the Jazz will look to slow this game down and win a low scoring contest. They have only played one game that went above this posted total so far this year. 

With the tempo and the early Sunday afternoon game, I like the under in this one.

The under is 5-0 in Utah's last 5 Sunday games. The under is 9-0 in their last 9 following a double digit loss at home. The under is 6-0 in the Knicks last 6 following a win by more than 10 points. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NBA Northwest. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Los Angeles Clippers host the Utah Jazz in a strange Sunday afternoon game that tips off at 1:30 pm local time. These early start time games on Sunday often turn into sluggish fourth quarters, and I believe this is a good spot for the under.

Utah will probably be the slowest paced team in the NBA this year. The Jazz defense is good in the interior, and they will try to do their best to slow the tempo down in this game. 

Los Angeles got much better on defense last year, and I see it continuing this season. The Clippers have several good individual defenders, and having DeAndre Jordan by the rim helps in a big way obviously.

The under is 5-2 in the Clippers last 7 Sunday games. Four of the last five games between these two were under this total in regulation. 

Early on the sharp money has hit the under had, and I agree with this play. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets are going to play at breakneck pace this year under Mike D'Antoni. D'Antoni ran a tremendous offensive system with the Suns several years ago. It hasn't worked very well in New York with the Knicks or in LA with the Lakers, but that was because of the makeup of the team.

Houston has a team that is absolutely capable of running and gunning with the D'Antoni offense. In the preseason, Houston had the highest offensive efficiency of any team in the NBA. They are going to score loads of points this year, and clearly in this system they will give up a ton as well.

The Los Angeles Lakers want to play fast under Luke Walton. They have some athleticism on the team, and I don't see them trying to stall out the flow of this game. 

The early betting numbers on this one encourage me a lot as well. So far, 60% of the bets on this game are on the under, but a whopping 94% of the money is on the over. The sharp players like the over, and I'm siding with them here. Houston puts up a huge number and this one goes over. Take the over in this contest. 

*4 Star NBA Finals Game 7 Season Closing CA$H* The Cleveland Cavs and Golden State Warriors meet Sunday night with everything on the line. In general in the NBA, the bigger the game is the more likely it is you will see more defense and a slower pace. The games don't come any bigger than this one. This is literally a career defining game for some people involved in this game. 

There also hasn't been a close game yet in the series, but I think that probably changes here. Golden State is banged up and Cleveland has the momentum, but Golden State is a great team and has the home court advantage. If this game is close late, the tempo will slow down drastically. 

In the past 12 years, Game 6 and Game 7 in the NBA playoffs have seen the under hit at a 65% clip. If you go back and look at the last three NBA Finals Game 7 results they show this in a big way also. The last 3 were: Spurs 81 Pistons 74 in 2005, Lakers 83 Celtics 79 in 2010, and Heat 95 Spurs 88 in 2013. 

This posted total is set high for a good reason. Both of these offenses are very good. Still, the long term numbers all tell me to take the under in this one. The public is betting the over at about a 76% clip here, and as of yet the total has not moved up. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Game 5 CASH* Game 4 was played to by far the slowest pace of the series thus far. The Cavs are likely going to try to make this game very physical, and typically in elimination games the tempo slows down a touch.

This posted total has dropped despite the public backing the over at 68% clip. Draymond Green's suspension has something to do with that for sure, but I believe this also means there is some sharp money on the under in this one.

Without Green, the Warriors lose a key facilitator of their offense. I think this game likely has less rhythm and is a little sloppier than most of the games in the series thus far. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Thunder/Warriors Game 7 MONEY* The Golden State Warriors proved very clutch in their Game 6 win. Golden State knocked down 21 three-pointers in that game, and that carried them through on the road in Oklahoma City. 

I had the under in that game and that cashed. I'm going with the under again here. The long-term trend is clear: elimination games in the NBA playoffs tend to mean a slower tempo and tighter defense. 

In Game 6, the game stayed well under despite the Warriors hot long range shooting. That's because the tempo was 4 possessions slower than the average of the first five games. That's a significant difference, and I have to think that continues here.

It's win or go home time for both teams. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Warriors/Thunder MONEYMAKER* The public loves to bet the over, and in this one the over is getting about 80% of the public bets. Despite that, the line has held steady and even dropped one half of a point at some books. That's a good sign for the under here. 

Additionally, we have three referees who have more unders than overs so far this year. 

An angle I really like is the under is 41-19 in the last 60 NBA playoff potential elimination games in game six or game seven of a series. Why is this? Normally teams tighten up and the pace slows down a tick. The defense gets better because no one wants to go home. 

These teams can definitely score, but I'm counting on a few less free throws than last game, and 221 is a bunch of points. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Cavs/Raptors Game 4 MONEY* The Cleveland Cavs have been prolific offensively so far this postseason, but Game 3 was their worst shooting performance in the playoffs thus far by a wide margin. Kyrie Irving was 3/19 from the floor and Kevin Love was 1/9 from the floor. Cleveland shot 35% from the floor as a team.

I don't expect that to happen again. Toronto's defense hasn't been very good on the whole this year, and Cleveland was getting good shots and missing them in Game 3. 

Toronto is much better offensively on their home floor. Guys like Derozan and Lowry have much more confidence getting to the basket when they are playing on their home floor. 

The first three games of this series have all had very high first halves and lower second halves because the game hasn't been close. We should get a closer contest where the scoring doesn't drop off as much late in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Thunder/Warriors Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors dropped game one due to some poor shooting numbers. While Oklahoma City's defense had some to do with it, I believe it had more to do with Golden State just not making shots they normally make. The Warriors aren't going to be held to 44% shooting on their home floor very often. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook didn't shoot the ball all that well, and still Oklahoma City scored 108 points last game. 

The regular season meetings were very high scoring, and while the playoffs lead to a slightly slower pace, both of these teams will want to keep pushing the tempo.

Golden State shot only 17 free throws last game. They made only 11. Oklahoma City shot only 68% from the line last game. These are two tremendous free throw shooting teams, and we can expect to see more points from the charity stripe in this game.

The offenses get rolling in this contest. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Friday Fast CASH* The Cleveland Cavaliers just set a record for most made 3's in a game with 25. Also, they put down 18 of them in game one. Cleveland is shooting well over 50% from long range in this series so far. Cleveland is good from long range, but they can't keep shooting it that well. 

Atlanta had the best defensive efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference this year, and I expect a strong defensive effort from them in front of their home crowd and down 2-0. The Hawks offense has had trouble getting open looks against this Cavs defense in key moments during this series and even in the regular season.

The tempo in the first couple games was about 92 possessions per game, which is very slow. With any kind of normal shooting numbers, that makes the under look very intriguing. 

The public is taking the over and the line is still dropping. I'm on the under in this one. 

*4 Star NBA Friday Night MONEY* The Indiana Pacers collapsed in Toronto in the 4th quarter in Game 5. The Pacers had that game and gave it away. Now, they have their back up against the wall down 3-2 in the series. 

This has been a tightly contested series where the two offenses have struggled to find any real consistency. The tempo is slow in this series because Toronto plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the NBA. 

Elimination games tend to lead to unders. The under sits at a little over 60% in potential elimination games in the NBA playoffs in the past seven years. This total hasn't been adjusted downward by the oddsmakers, so I'm grabbing the under in what should be a tight game.

The under is 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 road games. The under is 8-2 in the Pacers last 10 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Cavs and Pistons are playing this series at an extremely slow tempo. The average pace here has been 89.08 possessions so far this series. That's the slowest first round series in the playoffs by a wide margin so far this year. 

The shooting numbers have actually been good in this series or there would have been some very low scoring games. The total has been adjusted downward slightly in this game, but it isn't enough to keep me off the under.

The public is 62% on the over thus far and the line hasn't moved up. 

I had this line projected at 194.5, so I see clear value here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Warriors/Rockets Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors haven't shot the ball all that well in this series so far. Stephen Curry is expected back for this game, and I think he gives this Warriors team a major shot in the arm. The tempo is always going to be quick when these two teams meet, and there should be a lot of free throws attempted here.

The public is 67% on the under at this time, but the line is moving up, which is a good sign of sharp money on the over. 

The Rockets defense isn't very good, and the Warriors obviously have the best offense in the league. Golden State should be ready for a big game offensively. Houston will get to the line more at home. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night 100% CRUSHER* The Portland Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers meet in game 3 of their series on Saturday night. 

Los Angeles completely shut down Portland's offense in the first two games of the series. Based on both this series so far this year and the past encounters, it appears that Chris Paul is just a very tough matchup for Damian Lillard. Lillard has had a difficult time getting things going against Paul in the past. 

One thing that few realize is how good this Clippers defense is this year. The Clippers rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are tied with Golden State in his measure. 

There has been one game all year between these two teams (in 6 meetings) that has gone over this total and that was game one of this series based on 3 late tough 3 pointers falling in the last minute of a blowout.

The tempo of this series has been relatively slow and that should continue.

The under is 6-0 in the Blazers last 6 Saturday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. An 18-0 angle. Take the under.  

*4 Star Saturday NBA Fast CASH* The Charlotte Hornets couldn't have possibly played worse defense in the first two games of this series. Miami put on an absolute shooting clinic. The Heat scored 1.35 points per possession over the first two games. To put that in perspective, Golden State was the most efficient offense in the NBA in the regular season. They averaged 1.12 points per possession. 

Miami can't keep shooting the ball that well every game. Charlotte should dig deep in this one, especially with it being at home. 

Additionally, the pace of this series has been the single slowest pace of any series in the NBA playoffs. If that continues, and shooting percentages normalize, this total is far too high.

Look for a return to normal here. Take the under. 

*4 Star Cavs/Pistons Total DOMINATION* The Pistons and Cavs have shot the ball extremely well from 3 point range in the first two games in this series. The first game it was Detroit knocking down everything from long range. Last game it was Cleveland. I would expect some normalized shooting numbers in this game.

Cleveland initially pushed the tempo with Lue as their head coach, but they have slowed things down of late. The average pace of 91 possessions through the first two games of this series shows that this has largely been a halfcourt battle. 

I think this total is posted a few points too high based on the high shooting numbers from the first couple games. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Celtics/Hawks CASH* The Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics played to a 102-101 final in Game one. Boston's shooting woes kept that game from being higher scoring. Both Boston and Atlanta love to push the pace, so there's no doubt that the tempo will be quick here. 

Avery Bradley is the Celtics best defender, and it isn't even close. Atlanta's guards will get more open looks with Bradley out with an injury today. The Celtics Isiah Thomas had a bad game one as far as shooting, but he should be better tonight.

We have three overs referees assigned for this game including the single best over referee in the game in Scott Foster. Expect a quick whistle and plenty of free throws. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat did play at a slightly quicker pace at the end of the season, but they still ranked among the ten slowest teams in the league in the last month of the year. Dwyane Wade has long preferred a slow tempo and this Heat team is likely to try to slow the game back down in the playoffs. Charlotte has a slightly slower than average tempo as well. 

Miami ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Charlotte ranks 9th. Only one of the four meetings in the regular season went over this posted total. The playoffs usually bring better defense and a slower tempo. 

I think this one is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Playoffs Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Toronto Raptors ranked 11th in the league in defensive efficiency. While Toronto was 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, the Pacers were way down at number 23. 

In the NBA playoffs, we often see the tempo slow down a great deal. It makes a lot of sense because so much more is on the line. Additionally, the defense usually picks up. Indiana has been playing relatively fast this year, but Toronto at the second slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Raptors should be able to control the tempo on their home floor.

While about 70% of the public bets so far are on the over, the line here has been gradually dropping. That's a good sign of sharp money on the under in this one. 

This total is a few points too high. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Minnesota Timberwolves have plenty of scorers, and they should be able to score at will against a Pelicans team that is giving up almost 1.19 points per possession in their last 3 contests. Neither of these teams have anything to play for in this game, and I think that definitely is a positive for the over. The over is hitting at a 59% clip in NBA final games of the season in the past five years. No defense here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Toronto Raptors are sitting their best players tonight, but I still don't expect them to have any trouble scoring against the Nets. Brooklyn has been the worst defense in the NBA by a huge margin in the past 10 games. Brooklyn's tempo has picked up as well, and I don't see Toronto slowing the pace down with their backups tonight. Brooklyn is allowing 1.20 points per possession in their last three games. 

The over is 13-4 in the Nets last 17 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games overall. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Brooklyn Nets couldn't care less right now. Brooklyn is definitely playing out the string. Brooklyn is playing the worst defense in the NBA in the past month and it isn't even close. Brooklyn is allowing 1.14 points per possession in the past month. The Lakers are second worst at 1.12 points per possession. Clearly, Brooklyn is putting forth almost zero effort on defense now.

Brooklyn is without Brook Lopez and Thad Young for their final games. The Nets have played at a much faster tempo without these guys this year.

Washington will likely be without John Wall and Bradley Beal here, but they still have guys who can score. Morris was a key pickup, and he's been hot of late. Sessions and Thornton are pushing the pace in the Wizards backcourt as well. 

The early sharp money is piling in on the over here, and I have to agree with that. When these two met last week, the final was 121-103. With neither team caring to play defense, this should be very high as well. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA Tournament Game of the Year* The Oklahoma Sooners and Villanova Wildcats met earlier this year on December 7. The final score in that game was 78-55 with the Sooners winning. That game was on a neutral floor. 

Now, these two will play again in the Final Four. This game is played at NRG Stadium in Houston where the shooting backdrops are notoriously awful. Unders have ruled at NRG Stadium in the past, and when the game means so much, as this one obviously does, this usually leads to better defense and a slower tempo.

Even with normalized tempos for both teams from the regular season, the total here should be something like 146 points or so. The oddsmakers threw out a 150, which shocked me. After an adjustment for where the game is played and the importance of the game, I think 140 points would make more sense than 150 for this posted total.

Both of these teams are tremendous on defense. They both rank in the top 13 in the country. Villanova is playing at a slow tempo this year, and I don't think they'll let this turn into an all out track meet. 

This is my NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. Take the under. *Please note that I expect this line to drop, so play this line as early as possible. Also, while this is a very big play for me, use good bankroll management. Thanks and good luck.*