Sports Picks & Predictions

Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-26-14	Indiana Pacers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 188		100-106	Loss	-105	7 h 47 m	Show
3 Star NBA Totals CASH The San Antonio Spurs aren't playing as fast on offense as they did last year. What they are doing though is locking opponents down on the defensive end. Indiana has lots of problems scoring right now with injuries depleting them of their best offensive players. The Pacers are going to slow the game down and play their normal gritty defense. The pace should be slower than expected here, and both teams will have to work hard to score. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 Wednesday games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 6-1 in the Spurs last 7 home games. A 16-1 angle here. Take the under.
11-26-14	Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 183.5		82-97	Win	100	17 h 42 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION Anytime you see an NBA total this low, you have to examine the reasons for that number. Oklahoma City is struggling to find anyone who can score consistently with their ridiculous amount of injury problems. The Thunder have Durant, Westbrook, Andre Roberson, Mitch McGary, Perry Jones, and several others all sidelined. Utah toyed with playing uptempo early this year, but they have slowed down a lot in recent outings. Utah's offense isn't efficient, and it's because they aren't as balanced as most teams in the NBA. Oklahoma City has been excellent on the defensive end at home so far this year. The under is 4-0 in the Thunder's last 4 home games. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Oklahoma City. Take the under.
11-26-14	Golden State Warriors v. Orlando Magic UNDER 203.5		111-96	Loss	-105	6 h 32 m	Show
4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER The Orlando Magic have some serious problems right now. Orlando wasn't any good offensively to start with, and now they have all sorts of injury issues. The Magic are playing without Aaron Gordon for a long time. They are now also without Tobias Harris, who had been their most consistent scorer of late. Harris missed the morning shoot around today, so he is doubtful for tonight's game. Golden State is playing a back to back game here, so I expect them to be a little bit worn down. The Warriors are clearly the much better team and can win this game comfortably, but they might take their foot off the gas a little earlier tonight. The Warriors also have one of the best defenses in the NBA, and the Magic are unlikely to get many open looks here. I think this one stays in the 190's. The under is 4-0-1 in Golden State's last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 vs. the NBA Pacific Division. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Orlando between these teams. A 21-0 angle. Take the under.
11-26-14	Pittsburgh v. Kansas State UNDER 130		70-47	Win	100	5 h 45 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Kansas State Wildcats have been shooting a very high percentage so far this year. While it's possible Kansas State will be a bit improved from an offensive perspective, they aren't going to keep shooting the lights out every game like they have been recently. Jamie Dixon's Pitt Panthers are always one of the better defensive teams in the country. The Panthers also play at a very slow tempo all the time. Pitt is having significant problems scoring this year, but they stay in the game with their ball control and strong defense. I think this line is inflated due to Kansas State's recent hot shooting. I had this number at 125 points. Take the under.
11-25-14	Michigan v. Villanova UNDER 134		55-60	Win	100	8 h 45 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT Total The Villanova Wildcats impressed me with their defensive intensity on Monday night against VCU. Villanova made the Rams work extremely hard in the halfcourt sets to get looks at the basket. Michigan was amazingly efficient last year on offense, but without Nik Stauskas I expect them to be much worse this season. The Wolverines always want to slow the game down and they should be able to do that here. Villanova looked to be content playing a halfcourt game last night. Also keep in mind that this game is being played at Barclays Center in New York, so this is a neutral venue which generally lowers the shooting percentages. I had this one set at 129. Take the under.
11-25-14	Eastern Illinois v. Creighton UNDER 134		53-75	Win	100	5 h 58 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Eastern Illinois Panthers are going to try their best to slow this game down. They know they don't have the athleticism to run with Creighton. So far this year, Eastern Illinois has been successful in slowing everyone down that they have played against. Creighton also runs a little less than they did last year. More importantly though, Creighton isn't going to be nearly as good on offense without Doug McDermott, Grant Gibbs, Ethan Wragge, and Johans Manigat. This is an offense that has struggled so far this year, and I think the oddsmakers are being slow to adjust their numbers down. I had this one at 130 points. Take the under.
11-24-14	BYU v. San Diego State OVER 136		87-92	Win	100	8 h 28 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT The San Diego State Aztecs have played some extremely low scoring games so far this year, but most of their opponents have played at a very slow tempo. That will change tonight when they take on BYU. The Cougars are playing at a pace of 75 possessions per game, which is fifth fastest in the nation. San Diego State plays very good defense, but the pure amount of shots that BYU gets in this one should mean the Cougars score quite a few points. The Aztecs offense should also look a lot better when they are going up against a poor defense like BYU. Look for Winston Shephard to have a big game here. I made this total 140 points. Take the over.
11-24-14	VCU v. Villanova OVER 152		53-77	Loss	-103	4 h 59 m	Show
4 Star VCU/Villanova Total DOMINATION The VCU Rams can push the tempo as well as anyone in the nation with their "Havoc" full court pressure. While some teams will fight hard to slow the game down, I don't see Villanova being one that does that. The Wildcats like to play fast with their athleticism at all positions. Ryan Arcidiacano is a guard who plays fast and is prone to turnovers at times, which could play into the hands of VCU. Briante Weber's quickness really makes the Rams tough on both ends of the floor. Whoever wins this game is going to have to score a lot of points. Both of these teams have big guys who can run the floor well, which means there is no reason to expect either team will be wanting to slow things down. The tempo should push this one over. Take the over here.
11-23-14	Long Beach State v. UCLA OVER 154		63-77	Loss	-110	8 h 36 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT Only five teams in the entire country are playing at a faster tempo than the UCLA Bruins right now. There are 351 teams in college basketball. That tells you how quick the Bruins are playing. The Bruins are loaded with good long range shooters, and they are in a matchup here vs. a Long Beach State team that doesn't play much defense at all. Xavier put up 97 points on Long Beach State earlier this year, and Xavier doesn't have the offensive weapons that UCLA has. Long Beach State has a couple nice scorers in Michael Caffey and Tyler Lamb. The 49ers like to play quickly, and I expect them to put up a good amount of points in this game as well. I made this total 159 points. Take the over.
11-23-14	Florida Atlantic v. Georgia OVER 136.5	Top	61-74	Loss	-105	3 h 52 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of Week The Florida Atlantic Owls and the Georgia Bulldogs both have a new style of play this year. Michael Curry brings an uptempo system to Florida Atlantic. The Owls haven't been very good on offense so far this year, but they are going to get up a lot of shots in this game. Georgia is playing far faster than they have in recent years. In fact, the Bulldogs are averaging seven possessions more per game compared to last season. That's an amazing change in just one season. Georgia has scored 73, 80, and 82 points in their three games this year. Against inferior competition they put up 80 and 82 points, and Florida Atlantic definitely doesn't have the same kind of talent that Georgia has. The Bulldogs backcourt is really quick and they'll get to the basket with ease in this game. A total this low is a big play for me with both teams turning up the tempo this year. I made this total 143 points. Take the over big!
11-21-14	Idaho State v. Washington State OVER 132		68-80	Win	100	5 h 25 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Washington State Cougars aren't any good this year, but they are definitely going to play a lot faster under new coach Ernie Kent. In their first two games, the Cougars have averaged more than 70 possessions, which is a very quick tempo. Idaho State isn't a good team at all, and the Bengals have been particularly bad on defense in the past few seasons. Idaho State is going to make this Washington State offense look a lot better than they are. Lacy is a good scorer for Washington State, and I expect a big game from him. The tempo here should be much quicker than most expect, which is why I see so much value on the over. I had this one at 137 points. Take the over.
11-21-14	Phoenix Suns v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 206		122-96	Win	100	16 h 42 m	Show
3 Star TGIF NBA Play of Day The Philadelphia 76ers play at the second fastest tempo of any team in the NBA. The Phoenix Suns are the fourth fastest in the league in terms of tempo. When these two get together, you can certainly expect a track meet. I'll be the first to admit that this Sixers offense is dreadfully bad, so counting on them can be a little hard, but the value here is too much to overlook. These teams played twice last season. The final scores in those two games were 115-101 and 124-113. The posted totals were 216 and 213.5. We are getting this one at a much cheaper price. The Suns love to run, and they'll put up a very big number here led by their great guards. If the Sixers offense can be decent at all, this one goes over the total. Value play here. Take the over.
11-21-14	Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan State UNDER 133.5		52-87	Loss	-112	5 h 33 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Michigan State Spartans are playing at a slower tempo this year thanks to their inexperience. Tom Izzo no longer has a veteran leader at the point guard spot. Michigan State is still going to compete hard on the defensive end because Izzo's teams always do that, but I expect them to not only play slower, but also be less efficient on offense. It's hard not to be down after you lose Appling, Harris, and Payne. Loyola has been a team that slows the game down for many years, and I don't see them changing that this season. I had this number pegged at 128. Take the under here.
11-20-14	Nicholls State v. UCLA OVER 151		74-107	Win	100	9 h 42 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT The UCLA Bruins are playing at an extremely quick tempo this year. While UCLA does lack experience, they aren't lacking in athleticism. That allows them to push the tempo and score in transition at a high rate. Nicholls State clearly has no shot in this game. Nicholls State fouled more than any other team in the nation last year, so UCLA should make a living on the free throw line here. This is a game where UCLA could be pushing the 100 point barrier. Nicholls State likely starts slow, but gets more points in garbage time. I had this one at 156 points. Take the over.
11-20-14	Loyola Marymount v. Arizona State UNDER 131		44-68	Win	100	6 h 0 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Arizona State Sun Devils appear to be slowing the pace down again. With Jahii Carson at the helm the last couple years, Herb Sendek went away from his typical slow tempo. Now that he is gone, Arizona State is back to slowing things down. Loyola Marymount has a new coach and a new slower tempo as well. Arizona State's last game was an ugly 49-39 win. While I certainly don't expect anything like that here, I do think this one is likely to stay in the 120's. Look for a lot of long possessions as the shot clock ticks away. Take the under here.
11-19-14	Wake Forest v. Arkansas OVER 156.5		53-83	Loss	-110	5 h 2 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Arkansas Razorbacks are always one of the fastest paced teams in the nation. They thrive off using defensive pressure to create transition opportunities. Arkansas has athleticism and quickness at all positions this year, and I expect some very high scoring games for the Razorbacks. Wake Forest hasn't been fast in the past, but they have a new coach in Danny Manning. Manning has them playing at a much quicker tempo. The Demon Deacons aren't likely to slow this game down. It probably won't even take good shooting numbers to see this one go over the total. Uptempo all the way here with shots in the first 10 or 15 seconds of the shot clock being the norm. Take the over.
11-19-14	San Antonio Spurs v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 202.5		92-90	Loss	-105	16 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Spurs/Cavs Total DOMINATION The Cleveland Cavaliers started the year playing at a much slower tempo than I expected, but in recent games they have picked up the pace in a big way. Cleveland's offense is getting much more efficient, and after a rare poor game offensively las time against Denver, I think we see the Cavs bounce back offensively here. Cleveland has some real problems on the defensive end. The team defense here is about as bad as you'll see. San Antonio is absolutely a team that can take advantage of that with their amazing ball movement. The Spurs have been a little off the mark offensively most of this year, but I think their offense will be humming in this one against one of the worst defenses in the league. Both teams prefer to push the pace and both of these offenses can put up points in bunches. This total is set at a very reasonable level. The over is 8-1 in the Cavs last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. A 16-2 angle. Take the over.
11-18-14	New Orleans Pelicans v. Sacramento Kings OVER 199		106-100	Win	100	28 h 23 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION The Sacramento Kings are going to keep playing at a fast pace this year. The Kings early season success has been largely due to their improved defense. While their defense might be a bit better this year, I'm not convinced they can keep playing at the level they have so far this year on the defensive end. New Orleans is number three in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Anthony Davis is a matchup nightmare for just about everyone, and the Pelicans have tons of guys who can shoot it from long range. Sacramento should get their points in transition here too since the Pelicans are below average on the defensive end. The over is 4-0 in the Kings last 4 following a win. The over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two. Take the over.
11-18-14	Long Beach State v. Xavier OVER 146		74-97	Win	100	4 h 11 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Xavier Musketeers have decided to pick up the tempo this year. Xavier has a good freshman class, and the Musketeers will likely be better than most experts are predicting. They put up 93 points in their season opener. Long Beach State is always willing to run, and the 49ers get their best player back tonight. Tyler Lamb was suspended the first two games, but he'll play tonight. He and Michael Caffey are a nice one-two scoring punch for Long Beach State. This is a game where I think we'll see a quick tempo and quite a few fouls because of the aggressiveness of both defenses. I handicapped this game at a total of 151 points. Take the over in this one.
11-18-14	Iona v. Wofford UNDER 144		73-86	Loss	-110	5 h 29 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Early Morning MONEY The Iona Gaels and Wofford Terriers tip it off at 7 AM Eastern on Tuesday morning as part of ESPN's 24 hour Tip Off Marathon. Iona is a run and gun type of team, but Wofford is very good at controlling the tempo. These two teams met last year at Iona in the second game of the year, and Iona won 76-55. The Terriers are small favorites here, and the strength of this Wofford team is their backcourt. That should help them slow the game down and keep this one lower scoring than expected. In addition, this game starting at 7 AM should definitely make it harder for the shooters. Needless to say, this isn't a normal time to start a game and that usually hurts scorers. I had this one pegged at 139, so plenty of room for value on the under. A rare early morning play here. Take the under.
11-17-14	Phoenix Suns v. Boston Celtics OVER 214.5		118-114	Win	100	16 h 51 m	Show
3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER The Boston Celtics tempo has changed in a big way this year. Boston is pushing it at every opportunity, and that is very beneficial for a team with Rajon Rondo at the point guard spot. Boston has a lot of guys that can get into the paint, and the one thing Phoenix really lacks is a shot blocker on the inside. The Phoenix Suns will likely end the season as one of the top three fastest teams in the league in terms of pace. Phoenix wants to run at every opportunity with a backcourt of Dragic, Bledsoe, and Thomas. This game should be a real track meet. Both offenses have been efficient of late, and the defenses are subpar. The over is 6-0 in the Celtics last 6 vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more last game. The over is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 after the Celtics gave up 100 points or more last game. The over is 5-0 in the Celtics 5 home games this year. A 33-0 angle. Take the over.
11-17-14	Orlando Magic v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 191.5		107-93	Loss	-102	16 h 50 m	Show
4 Star NBA Play of Day The Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic meet on Monday night. Detroit is a different team than they were last year. They are playing much better defense for new coach Stan Van Gundy. I expect that trend to continue since Van Gundy has proven to be a good defensive coach in the past. Detroit has been very poor on offense though. The Pistons rank in the bottom six in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Orlando is just as inefficient on offense. The Magic are unlikely to be as good on offense now with Aaron Gordon out of the lineup also. Orlando's tempo is right around the league average, while Detroit is playing at the fourth slowest tempo in the league. This should be an ugly one. Take the under.
11-15-14	Detroit Pistons v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 187.5		88-95	Win	100	17 h 16 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION The Memphis Grizzlies have played some abnormally high scoring games in their past couple contests. Memphis won high scoring affairs against both the Lakers and the Kings the past few days. Detroit is a much different team than Sacramento or Los Angeles. The Pistons are one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA. They also rank 23 out of 30 NBA teams in terms of pace. Memphis ranks 25 out of 30 teams in pace. The Grizzlies also have one of the best defenses in the NBA. It would be a big surprise if Detroit has consistent success on offense in this game. Memphis tends to not blow out their opponent. Look for a low scoring contest here. The recent high scores in Memphis’ last 2 games give us good line value on the under. Take the under.
11-14-14	Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 193.5		85-101	Win	100	16 h 29 m	Show
3 Star NBA Play of Day The Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks both rank near the bottom of the NBA in offensive efficiency. Orlando is 25th out of 30 teams in the league and Milwaukee is 29th. Milwaukee deserves credit for the way they are playing defense though. The Bucks have been the second best defense in the NBA through the first couple weeks of the year. Jason Kidd is doing a good job getting this young team to buy into his system. Orlando's defense is middle of the pack. With two teams who don't play particularly fast and two teams who generally shoot a very low percentage, a total of 193.5 is several points too high. Take the under here.
11-07-14	Sacramento Kings v. Phoenix Suns OVER 207		114-112	Win	100	19 h 10 m	Show
3 Star NBA RED HOT Run CASH The Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings have a long history of playing uptempo high scoring games against each other. Phoenix is making an even bigger effort to run this year. Why wouldn't they? The Suns backcourt has Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic, and Isaiah Thomas who are all absolutely speed burners. The Suns big men (Morris twins and Plumlee) aren't particularly good at sitting in the low post, but they can run the floor extremely well. Sacramento is always glad to run the floor, and their coaching staff is loaded with coaches who have a history of pushing the tempo. They put up 131 points in their last win. Rudy Gay is a scoring machine, and Cousins will have an advantage in the interior. Five of the last six meetings between these two have finished at 210 points or higher. Expect lots of transition buckets and a bunch of points here. Take the over.
11-07-14	Milwaukee Bucks v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 193.5		95-98	Win	100	5 h 2 m	Show
3 Star NBA Totals TKO The Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks have both improved a great deal on the defensive end from last year. Both of these teams have new coaches and that has led to a much more concerted effort on the defensive end. Jason Kidd is preaching defense in a big way, and the Bucks have several athletic shot blockers down low. Detroit didn't even pretend to try on defense last year, but Stan Van Gundy won't allow that this season. In addition to two improved defenses, we have two offenses that aren't efficient at all. Both of these teams rank in the bottom six teams in the NBA in terms of offensive efficiency so far this year. All three referees here are what I would consider good draws for an under play. I made this line 189.5. Take the under here.
11-07-14	New York Knicks v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 193.5		99-110	Loss	-105	4 h 1 m	Show
3 Star NBA Knicks/Nets Total DOMINATION The Brooklyn Nets played fast in their first couple games this year, but that was before Brook Lopez came back in the lineup. With Lopez back, the team slows the pace down quite a bit. Lopez also provides the team with a good defender in the middle of the paint. New York is playing at a far slower pace than any team in the NBA through the first few games. The Knicks are still learning their new offense, and it seems like that has caused them to be more cautious and hesitant. Two of three referees in this game are favorable for this under play as well. Look for a game that is played in the halfcourt. This line is several points too high. Take the under.
11-05-14	Denver Nuggets v. Sacramento Kings OVER 202.5		109-131	Win	100	7 h 7 m	Show
4 Star NBA Totals Takedown The Sacramento Kings rank fifth in the NBA in terms of pace. Denver ranks third in the NBA in pace. When these two meet, you are going to see a lot of transition opportunities and quick shot attempts. While both teams have solid defensive numbers so far this year, I'm not buying that these are two of the best defenses in the NBA. The Kings have a lot of guys on their roster who can score in bunches, but they haven't committed themselves on defense in their career. These two teams met last week in Denver and the Kings won 110-105. The referee assignments for this game are helpful as well. Scott Foster is consistently one of the best over refs in the league, and he is the lead referee tonight. Josh Tiven is also a nice over referee. There should be plenty of pace here and a good amount of trips to the stripe too. Take the over.
11-05-14	Toronto Raptors v. Boston Celtics OVER 202	Top	110-107	Win	100	29 h 21 m	Show
5 Star NBA TOP Play of Week The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors both made it clear in the preseason that they want to play far faster than they did last season. We're already seeing evidence of that from both teams. Boston is second in the NBA so far this averaging 108 points per game. Toronto has scored at least 100 points in every game this year, and they are averaging 104.8 points per contest. I like both of these coaches, and I think they are both making a wise decision to push the tempo based on their personnel. These are two teams that have depth in the backcourt and not a whole lot of inside scoring on the roster. Since these teams didn't play particularly fast last year, the oddsmakers take some time responding to the new look of the team. That allows us to have some value playing the over with them for the first couple weeks. Also, Boston ranks 25th in FG percentage defense and Toronto ranks 29th. There should be lots of quick easy buckets in this one. The over is 5-0 in the Celtics last 5 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Celtics last 4 vs. the Atlantic Division. The over is 4-0 in Toronto's last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. A 13-0 angle. Take the over big! Please note this line has moved up since I selected it shortly after the open. I would still play this for 5 stars up to 205, 4 stars to 206.5, and 3 stars to 208. Thank you!
11-04-14	Houston Rockets v. Miami Heat UNDER 204		108-91	Win	100	5 h 4 m	Show
3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER The Houston Rockets are playing at a little bit slower pace this year. They are also playing much better on the defensive end. Their offense isn't quite as potent without Chandler Parsons, but their defense is better. Miami isn't going to be a team that plays terribly fast, and I think the Heat's defense will still rank in the top half of the league despite losing James. Houston's lines have been set too high all year, and I don't think this one is any different. The Rockets defense is stepping up, and a line of 204 is simply too high. I made this line 199.5 points, so I see a few points of value in this one. The under is 6-0 in the Rockets last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. A 28-0 angle. Take the under.
11-01-14	Phoenix Suns v. Utah Jazz OVER 203.5		91-118	Win	100	5 h 23 m	Show
4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION The Utah Jazz have vowed to pick up the pace with Quin Snyder at the helm. He wants the team to move more quickly and pass the ball more often. The Phoenix Suns could end up as the highest scoring team in the NBA this year. I love their pickup of Isaiah Thomas. He teams up with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe to create a ridiculously quick backcourt for the Suns. Phoenix pushed it some last year, but their tempo should be off the charts quick this season. Utah's defense isn't good at all (they were worst in the NBA last year), and the Suns were in the bottom ten as well. This game should be played at a quick tempo and we'll see lot of possessions for each team. Take the over.
10-31-14	Portland Trail Blazers v. Sacramento Kings OVER 198.5		94-103	Loss	-112	7 h 26 m	Show
4 Star NBA Red HOT Run Total By all accounts, the Sacramento Kings want to run this year. They hired a coaching staff that wants to push the tempo and go small as often as possible. While the Kings first game finished at a low score, it wasn't because the teams played slowly. In fact, Sacramento and Golden State played out to the single fastest pace of any game thus far in the NBA season. Both teams just shot the ball really poorly. Portland had one of the most efficient offenses in the league all year last year and the Kings don't have an answer to guys like Aldridge and Lillard on the defensive end. This line is definitely an overreaction to the Kings low scoring game in the opener. Too much value here to pass up. Take the over.
10-31-14	Philadelphia 76ers v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 201		81-93	Loss	-107	19 h 41 m	Show
3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER The Milwaukee Bucks are implementing a faster style of play with Jason Kidd as coach this year. Milwaukee's roster fits a fast paced offense much better than a slow it down style. Jabari Parker will be a nice piece in his rookie season, and I expect good seasons from O.J. Mayo and Brandon Knight. Philadelphia is all about running and gunning. The 76ers are a terrible team, but they are going to put up as many shots as they can. Coach Brown has them in shape and he expects them to run for four quarters every single game. You won't see much effort on the defensive end from these guys though. This looks like a game where both teams put up a lot of quick shots and even with a relatively low shooting percentage it finishes over the total. The over is 9-0 in the 76ers last 9 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss by 10 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 or more in their previous game. The over is 4-0 in Milwaukee's last 4 Friday games. The over is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 on Friday. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 or more in the previous game. A 35-0 angle. Take the over.
10-30-14	Washington Wizards v. Orlando Magic OVER 188.5		105-98	Win	100	5 h 30 m	Show
4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION The Orlando Magic plan to pick up the tempo this year. Coach Vaughan has said all throughout the preseason that he believes his team's best chance to win is to speed up the game with their athletes. With youngsters like Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton on the roster, I do expect the Magic to have success in transition. Orlando won't be very good defensively though, and the Wizards should get plenty of easy buckets. Washington has a big mismatch on the inside, and look for the Wizards to dominate the offensive glass and get a lot of easy putbacks. Orlando stayed under the total in their first game against a New Orleans team that likes to slow the tempo down, but Washington prefers to run as well. John Wall is at his best in transition. Both teams should push the pace here. Take the over.
10-29-14	Philadelphia 76ers v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 191		91-103	Loss	-110	16 h 45 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION The Indiana Pacers look a whole lot different than they did last year. Indiana is without the injured Paul George. George isn't the only key injury though. The Pacers are going to be without David West, George Hill, and CJ Watson in this game. That means Donald Sloan will start at the point guard here. Lance Stephenson is no longer on the team, and he was their second best scoring option in the backcourt last year. Without George, West, Stephenson, and their two point guards, the Pacers have some real offensive question marks. The team they are up against has all kinds of issues too though. The 76ers are without Michael Carter-Williams for this game. Joel Embiid is out with an injury as is Jason Richardson. This is a Sixers team that loves to play fast and push the pace, but the Pacers aren't going to want any part of that. Even though Philadelphia played fast last year, they had the least efficient offense in the league. Late last year, with both teams at full strength, these two played to a final score of 99-90. I expect a really ugly game here. Neither team is going to be good. The Pacers have a good defense with Roy Hibbert in the middle though, and they should control the tempo. Take the under.
06-10-14	San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat UNDER 198		111-92	Loss	-110	18 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Spurs/Heat Total CASH I took the under in Game Two and it cashed in by five points despite the Heat shooting 52% from the floor and the Spurs knocking down 12 three-point shots. The pace of these games has been plenty slow, and even with high shooting numbers the under is showing value. If the shooting percentages come down to a more normalized number, I would expect the game to stay well under the posted total. The under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings between these two in Miami. Both teams can't keep shooting it great forever. Remember, these are two very good defensive teams as well. Take the under here.
06-08-14	Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199		98-96	Win	100	16 h 40 m	Show
4 Star Heat/Spurs Total CASH The San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat combined to hit 25 three-point shots in Game One. The posted total still only finished over this number by six points. The Spurs shot 59 percent from the floor in that game. Those kind of shooting numbers can't be expected again. The posted total here is several points too high. Keep in mind these teams were very similar in last year's NBA Finals, and the totals were set around 190 for each game. The public likes the over because of all the points from game one, and that gives us a chance to take the value side. Take the under.
05-31-14	San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 207		112-107	Loss	-105	26 h 22 m	Show
3 Star Spurs/Thunder 100% CASH The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder meet in Game 6 on Saturday night in Oklahoma City. The lowest scoring games have all been played in Oklahoma City. That's because Oklahoma City's defense has shown up on their home court. With their backs up against the wall, I expect OKC to show up on defense again here. The Spurs shot the lights out last game, and the Thunder are facing elimination here. The pace generally slows down in elimination games, and this is a very high posted total. Look for a closer game here finally, and look for both defenses to step it up in a game that means a bunch to both teams. The under is 5-0 in the Spurs last 5 playing on a day of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Conference Finals games. The under is 6-0 in OKC's last 6 games playing on one day of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in OKC between these teams. A 50-0 angle. Take the under.
05-29-14	Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 206.5		89-117	Win	100	20 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Thunder/Spurs Total DOMINATION The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder play a pivotal Game 5 in San Antonio on Thursday night. Since Serge Ibaka has come back for the Thunder, this has been a totally different series. I expect a close game in this one rather than the blowouts we have been seeing, but I do expect both defenses to play well. Oklahoma City is excellent defensively with Ibaka in the lineup, and the Spurs are underrated defensively as well. The past two games have coasted under the total despite relatively good shooting numbers. The under is 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 playing on one day of rest. The under is 4-0 in OKC's last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 when playing on a single day of rest. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 after allowing 100 points in their last game. A 17-0 angle. Take the under.
05-28-14	Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 184.5		90-93	Win	100	18 h 33 m	Show
4 Star Heat/Pacers Total DOMINATION The Miami Heat are in a potential close out spot here. I like playing the under in close out opportunities, because it generally brings out the best in the two defenses because of the increased importance in the game. Indiana's defensive effort slacked last game, but I expect them to fight harder here in this situation at home. The shooting numbers in the last couple games have been very high, and I expect those to come down to a more normalized figure here. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 games between these two in Indiana. Take the under.
05-25-14	San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 209		97-106	Win	100	20 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Spurs/Thunder 100% CASH The Oklahoma City Thunder will likely get Serge Ibaka back in this one. Ibaka is a real defensive presence and he would make the Spurs work much harder in the paint. Even if they don't get him back, I expect the Thunder to make life much tougher on the Spurs offense which has absolutely shredded them up in this series thus far. The Spurs offense has had trouble getting going against the Thunder in Oklahoma City in the past, and the Thunder should show some pride and rise up on the defensive end in this one. San Antonio's defense is underrated this year as well. Look for a much tighter game here and two defenses that come ready to play. The under is 4-0 in the Thunder's last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their last game. The under is 5-0 in OKC's last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two in Oklahoma City. A 13-0 angle. Take the under in this one.
05-12-14	MIAMI GM4 v. BROOKLYN GM4 UNDER 188		102-96	Loss	-115	17 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Heat/Nets Total DOMINATION The Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat meet for Game 4 in Brooklyn on Monday night. Brooklyn made 15 three-pointers in Saturday night's game, and that game still barely went over the posted total. It's absolutely obvious that the Nets are doing their best to stall and grind these games to a halt vs. the Heat. Even though they are down 2-1 in the series, the Nets have played this series at their pace. Barring some ridiculous shooting percentages again, I believe this game stays under the posted total. This is a big game for both teams and the defenses should step up. Take the under.
05-08-14	Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat UNDER 192	Top	82-94	Win	100	18 h 51 m	Show
5 Star NBA TOP Play Total DOMINATION I bet the under in the first game between these two and it came up a loser. A dunk with less than 10 seconds left cost me that win. It was a bad beat loser. The under lost because the scrubs pushed the tempo and scored like crazy in the last few minutes of the game. Looking closer at the box score from game one, the under was definitely the right play. The Heat shot 57% from the floor in that game. The Nets were blown out, but they still shot a very respectable 47% from the floor. There were 19 made three-point shots in Game One. With all of that being the case, the game only went over this total by one point. The defenses should be better here. I like the value on this under. Take the under big!
05-06-14	Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat UNDER 191.5		86-107	Loss	-105	17 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Nets/Heat Total DOMINATION The Miami Heat do have a fairly difficult second round matchup in the Brooklyn Nets. I expect Miami to win the series, but the Nets might make it competitive. The Nets do a great job knowing how to slow down this Heat offense. Miami thrives on fastbreak easy opportunities, and Brooklyn does a good job slowing the game down and forcing the Heat to beat them in the halfcourt. Brooklyn slowed the pace down to 88.8 possessions when they played the Heat this year, which is nearly five possessions slower than Miami's average game played to during the season overall. The fact that this should be a slow paced game makes me like the under quite a bit here. The under is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 conference semifinals games. The under is 7-0 in the Nets last 7 after scoring 100 or more last game. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Miami. A 16-0 angle. Take the under.
05-02-14	Houston Rockets v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 213.5		98-99	Win	100	21 h 1 m	Show
4 Star NBA Play of Day The Portland Blazers have a second shot to close out the Houston Rockets on Friday night. Portland was unable to do it on the road last game, and if they don't win here they'll have to go back to Houston for Game 7. The potential close out spots are great chances to back the under in general. Defenses play harder and teams generally slow things down a bit. Last game stayed under at 206 and I cashed in there. I expect this one to stay below 210 as well. Great chance to play the under in a game that means a ton to both teams. Lots of pressure on both the Blazers and Rockets. Take the under.
05-02-14	San Antonio Spurs v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 199.5		111-113	Loss	-110	18 h 41 m	Show
3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER The Dallas Mavericks are now fighting to stay alive. They are back at home in Dallas for Game 6. Dallas has proven they are a tough matchup for the Spurs in this series. The Spurs have had trouble getting any separation in this series. This is a potential closeout game and I like playing the under in these spots. Better defense and a slower tempo should be expected for a game that means this much to both teams. The under is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 when their opponent allows 100 or more in the last game. The under is 5-0 in Dallas' last 5 when their opponent scores 100 or more in the last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 when Dallas gives up 100 points or more. A 15-0 angle here. Take the under.
05-02-14	Toronto Raptors v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 191		83-97	Win	100	17 h 41 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Value There is some extra value on the under in this game because Game 5 was so high scoring. The shooting percentages in Game 5 were just ridiculously high, and I don't expect to see that in a potential close out game in Brooklyn. Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow tempo, and they are both fully capable of bogging down on offense for long stretches of time. Closeout games are great chances to back the under, and last game boosted the value nicely. Take the under.
05-01-14	Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 185		104-84	Loss	-110	17 h 41 m	Show
3 Star NBA Play of Day The Memphis Grizzlies have a chance to close out this series on Thursday night. Memphis knows the way they have the best chance to win in this series is by slowing the game down and making it a defensive battle. Tony Allen has been tremendous on Kevin Durant in this series, and the Grizzlies have slowed the game down and entered it into the post constantly. Oklahoma City is an excellent defensive team as well. The shooting percentages have been terrible in this series, and that makes sense based on the types of shots they are getting. In a close out game with tons on the line, the tempo should slow down and the defense should get even tougher. The under is the value play here. Take the under.
04-30-14	Portland Trailblazers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 214		98-108	Win	100	43 h 49 m	Show
4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION The Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers have seen three of the first four games in this series go into overtime. The under would have cashed in on two of those games and the extra session pushed the game over. This is a potential close out game, and those are generally played at a slower pace with more defense because of how much the game means to both teams. The fact that overtimes have pushed these games so high on the final point total gives us value on the under here. You can't expect overtime, and if we don't get overtime here, I like our chances of cashing in the under. Take the under.
04-28-14	Miami Heat v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 188		109-98	Loss	-105	16 h 49 m	Show
3 Star NBA Heat/Bobcats Total DOMINATION The Miami Heat are cruising to an easy first round playoff win over the Charlotte Bobcats. It certainly shouldn't be seen as any surprise that it has been so easy for the Heat. Charlotte fought hard and should be commended on their season this year, but the Bobcats are outclassed in every way in this series. One important thing to remember this time of the year is close out games are often lower scoring than the rest of the series. I expect Miami to finish off this series here, and that makes me like the under more. If the Heat get a big lead here, expect the scoring to slow down in a big way as it did in Game Three (32 points in the fourth quarter between the two teams combined). If Charlotte is going to put up a fight here, it will be on the defensive end. Both teams like to slow down the tempo of the game. The under is 5-0 in Charlotte's last 5 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-1 in Charlotte's last 5 home games. A 13-1 angle. Take the under.
04-11-14	New York Knicks v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 192		108-100	Loss	-102	17 h 54 m	Show
3 Star NBA Play of Day The games that matter more in the NBA late in the season are the ones where I look to take the under. The Knicks obviously need this game badly for their playoff hopes. Toronto is also fighting hard to try to secure the third spot in the Eastern Conference. Both teams should be highly motivated in this game. Toronto ranks 23rd out out of 30 teams in the NBA in terms of pace. New York ranks 29th in the NBA in terms of pace, so both teams will be walking it up the court. Since this game matters to both teams, I expect the defenses to be working harder than normal here. Look for this game to stay in the 180's. Take the under.
04-05-14	Kentucky v. Wisconsin UNDER 139.5		74-73	Win	100	42 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Final 4 Total DOMINATION The Kentucky Wildcats and Wisconsin Badgers square off in a highly anticipated Final Four showdown this weekend in Dallas. This game is being played at the Dallas Cowboys stadium so this is definitely a tough shooting backdrop. We normally see lower scoring games in this kind of arena, because shooters just aren't used to this type of sight at a normal basketball arena. Wisconsin knows they can't run with Kentucky because the Wildcats have a major athleticism advantage. Look for the Badgers to slow this game down much more than most people expect. The Badgers are a sound team who should make it tough on Kentucky to get a bunch of easy buckets in the paint as they have gotten in recent weeks. Wisconsin's offense is good, but Kentucky's length should bother them. This total is set a little bit too high. Take the under.
04-05-14	Boston Celtics v. Detroit Pistons OVER 205	Top	111-115	Win	100	17 h 20 m	Show
5 Star NBA TOP Play of the Month The Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons both have nothing to play for at this point in the season. Boston started the season working hard on defense, but they have totally packed it in and started playing zero defense of late. Detroit hasn't played defense all year. The Pistons do have plenty of scorers on their team and against another bad team like the Celtics, Detroit is capable of putting up a lot of points. The last two games between these two teams finished at 213 and 229 points. Late in the season it's quite common to see games between two teams that have nothing to play for be very high scoring because that means no effort on the defensive end. This game fits that theory about as well as any game you'll ever see. Look for a bunch of points in this one. The over is 5-0 in the Celtics last 5 Saturday games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0 in the Pistons last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. The over is 4-0 in the Pistons last 4 following a loss of 10 points or more. The over is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two teams. A 20-0 angle. Take the over big!
04-04-14	Detroit Pistons v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 204.5		104-116	Win	100	18 h 45 m	Show
3 Star NBA TGIF Total DOMINATION The Detroit Pistons and Brooklyn Nets meet in a game that means absolutely nothing to the Pistons and not too much to the Nets. That generally means higher scoring and less defense. Detroit's defense has been non-existent in recent weeks, and the Nets offense has been firing on all cylinders of late. Don't be surprised if Brooklyn hangs 110 or 115 points on the Pistons in this one. Detroit will play fast and get up plenty of shots as well. The over is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 14-2 in the Nets last 16 Friday games. The over is 6-1 in the Nets last 7 following one day of rest. The over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two in Brooklyn. A 34-4 angle. Take the over.
03-30-14	Connecticut v. Michigan State UNDER 139.5		60-54	Win	100	35 h 20 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Elite 8 Total DOMINATION The UConn Huskies aren't going to want to get into a fast paced game with the Michigan State Spartans. Kevin Ollie's UConn Huskies have been winning with their strong defense down the stretch. Michigan State beat Virginia on Friday, but they struggled offensively against a strong defense. UConn is in the top 15 in the nation in total defense. Michigan State's defense has been very good of late as well. This total is set pretty high, especially considering this game is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is a tough arena for shooters. I like the value here. Take the under.
03-28-14	Cleveland Cavaliers v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 197.5		97-108	Loss	-110	18 h 32 m	Show
3 Star NBA Play of Day The Cleveland Cavs are very short handed right now. Kyrie Irving is out of the lineup and CJ Miles is questionable for this one. Anthony Bennett is also out of the lineup. Andrei Kirilenko is unlikely to play in this one for the Nets, so they are without a key player as well. Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow pace to start with, and without so many key offensive weapons I can't imagine this team gets to be high scoring. The under is 4-0 in the Cavs last 4 Friday games. The under is 3-0 in their last 3 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 13-3 in their last 16 following a win. A 20-3 angle. Take the under.
03-28-14	Connecticut v. Iowa State UNDER 147		81-76	Loss	-108	115 h 30 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB TGIF Total DOMINATION The Iowa State Cyclones really like to get out and run, and they'll try to do that here. UConn would much prefer to slow the game down though, and UConn's defense has been exceptional over the past few weeks. The Huskies have been shutting down great offenses on a consistent basis. Also keep in mind that this game is being played at Madison Square Garden in New York City, which is one of the toughest arenas in the country for shooters. This game obviously means a bunch to both teams, and that typically slows the pace of play a bit too. Take the under here.
03-27-14	Dayton v. Stanford OVER 133		82-72	Win	100	91 h 18 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Dayton Flyers upset Ohio State and Syracuse to get to the Sweet 16. Dayton is fully capable of playing fast or playing slow, but I think this game is played at a much faster pace than their first two games because of their opponent. Stanford prefers to play at a quick pace when they can, and the Cardinal have shot the ball horribly in the first two games. Stanford likely shoots it a little better here. In Powell and Randle, the Cardinal have two elite scorers who can put the ball in the hoop consistently. Dayton hasn't seen many teams this year with that kind of offensive talent. This total is set too low. Take the over.
03-26-14	Memphis Grizzlies v. Utah Jazz UNDER 184.5		91-87	Win	100	19 h 21 m	Show
3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER The Memphis Grizzlies play slower than any other team in the NBA. The Grizzlies weren't all that impressive on defense earlier this year, but they have been a top three defense in the league over the past month. Memphis often holds bad offenses to 85 points or less. Utah isn't efficient at all, and they play at a very similar slow pace. A slow tempo and a dominating defense from the Grizzlies should keep this one low scoring. The last contest between these two finished at 182 points. I had the line here at 181 points. The under is 5-0 in the Grizzlies last 5 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 5-0 in Utah's last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Utah. A 23-0 angle. Take the under.
03-26-14	Yale v. Columbia UNDER 127.5		72-69	Loss	-110	49 h 60 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION Yale and Columbia will meet for the third time this year, and the first two meetings were both very slow paced games with the defenses playing well. Why would the third be any different. The first meeting finished at 128 points, but that was with 80 free throw attempts(which is just ridiculous). It's hard to imagine the teams getting to that kind of number again. The second game stayed well under the total. I made the total here 122 points. Look for a defensive game here. Take the under.
03-23-14	Baylor v. Creighton UNDER 144.5	Top	85-55	Win	100	45 h 39 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total The Creighton Blue Jays can shoot the ball very well, but they actually don't play nearly as fast as most people believe. Creighton slowed the game down quite a bit against Lafayette in their first game. Baylor is a team that works hard to slow the game down and win with their inside presence. This total is set extremely high as if this were a matchup between two teams that both run. In reality, both of these teams have been slowing the games down a lot of late. I lined this game at 139 points. The under is 20-7-1 in Creighton's last 28 non-conference games. Playing on a neutral floor hurts the shooting percentages for both teams a bit. If Creighton isn't hitting a very high percentage of three's, I think this stays well under. Take the under big here!
03-23-14	Stephen Austin v. UCLA UNDER 144.5		60-77	Win	100	29 h 59 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Oddsmaker ERROR The Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks know how to control the pace of the game. They slowed down an ultra fast VCU team. I lost on the under in that game solely because of the VCU foul on a 3 pointer with 3 seconds left that put it in overtime, but I'm taking the under again with SF Austin here. They have to know they can't get into a running match with UCLA. Tulsa and UCLA played at a surprisingly slow pace Friday night, and SF Austin will slow it down far more than Tulsa did. I lined this game at 140 points. The under is 5-0 in UCLA's last 5 non-conference games. The under is 5-1 in SF Austin's last 6 following a win. Take the under.
03-23-14	North Carolina v. Iowa State OVER 159		83-85	Win	100	28 h 47 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The North Carolina Tar Heels love to play fast all the time. Iowa State is a team that played faster than anyone else in the Big 12, and the Cyclones aren't about to slow down now. Niang being injured certainly hurts the Cyclones, but they still have Kane and Ejim to fill it up here. This game has track meet written all over it. It should be a lot of fun to watch. Marcus Paige is really coming into his own for North Carolina and that makes them a dangerous team. The over is 4-0 in UNC's last 4 games against a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 5-1 in Iowa State's last 6 NCAA Tournament games. The over is 4-1 in their last 5 following a win. A 13-2 angle. Take the over.
03-23-14	Washington Wizards v. Denver Nuggets OVER 215.5		102-105	Loss	-106	14 h 39 m	Show
3 Star NBA Play of Day The Denver Nuggets are pushing the pace as much as any team in the NBA right now. This Nuggets team is capable of putting up a bunch of points on a mediocre defense like Washington. The Wizards have their fair share of guys who are capable of lighting it up as well. The number here is likely too low because of a low scoring meeting between these two teams back in December that influences bettors more than it should. These teams are totally different now. The over is 4-0 in the Wizards last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their last game. The over is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1 in their last 9 on one day of rest. A 16-1 angle. Take the over.
03-23-14	Kentucky v. Wichita State UNDER 135		78-76	Loss	-110	14 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Kentucky/Wichita State Total DOMINATION The Kentucky Wildcats have slowed things down in a big way over the past month. Coach Calipari decided to mix in the zone defense, and the offense has become much more deliberate in an attempt to take better shots. Wichita State's offense is good, but it's their defense that is elite. The Shockers should be highly motivated here and Kentucky will have a tough time getting up quality shots. Kentucky's defense has gotten much better in recent weeks. Expect a defensive battle. The under is 9-1 in Kentucky's last 10 Sunday games. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 following an ATS win. A 15-2 angle. Take the under.
03-22-14	Harvard v. Michigan State UNDER 137		73-80	Loss	-110	21 h 31 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day The Harvard Crimson didn't just get to this point by being a Cinderella or a lucky team. Harvard is a good team who is very well-coached. Expect the Crimson to know their best chance of winning this game is slowing the game down. Michigan State has a very good defense, and Harvard will struggle to get up open shots. Harvard's defense is underrated. The Spartans shot the ball remarkably well in their first game of the tournament, and you have to assume they will come back to earth a bit here. I had this one lined at 133 points. Expect a slower pace and some solid defense. The under is 5-0 in Harvard's last 5 non-conference games. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 neutral site games. The under is 4-1 in the Spartans last 5 NCAA Tournament games. A 13-2 angle. Take the under.
03-22-14	Dayton v. Syracuse UNDER 127.5		55-53	Win	100	19 h 54 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Dayton Flyers defense looked impressive against Ohio State on Thursday afternoon. Syracuse is a terrific defense, but the Orange have trouble on the offensive end. I don't think there will be much of a flow to this game. Syracuse's tempo is much much slower this year than they have been in recent years, and games generally slow down a little more as the tournament moves along because of the importance of the game. The zone defense should bother Dayton. Look for both defenses to rise to the occasion here. Take the under.
03-21-14	Tulsa v. UCLA OVER 146		59-76	Loss	-105	21 h 1 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT The Tulsa Hurricane have really taken a significant step forward this year with Danny Manning leading the way as their head coach. Tulsa has picked up the tempo this year, and Manning has made it quite clear that he doesn't want to change the way they play here. Tulsa will look to run. The problem for them is UCLA is great in a fast paced game, and the Bruins offense could really pile up the points quickly in this one. Look for both teams to get up tons of shots in this one. The over is 4-0 in UCLA's last 4 NCAA Tournament games. Take the over.
03-21-14	Stephen Austin v. VCU UNDER 139		77-75	Loss	-110	118 h 1 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER Stephen F Austin is a well-coached veteran team that should know that they can't get into an up and down type of game with VCU. Shaka Smart's team isn't very good on offense in the halfcourt, so they really rely heavily on forcing turnovers with their full court pressure. Stephen F Austin is relatively good at taking care of the ball. VCU is missing their best three-point shooter for this one, and that could hurt this team quite a bit since they don't shoot it well to start with. The under is 5-0 in SF Austin's last 5 games following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in VCU's last 4 games against a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in VCU's last 4 NCAA Tournament games. A 13-0 angle. Take the under.
03-21-14	Cal Poly SLO v. Wichita State UNDER 126		37-64	Win	100	17 h 21 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Bookie CRUSHER The Cal Poly Mustangs looked great offensively Wednesday against Texas Southern. They won't look very good offensively Friday against Wichita State. The Shockers are a terrific team that excels on the defensive end. Wichita State doesn't mind playing slowly, and Cal Poly wants to stall as much as possible here. The Mustangs play as slow as anyone in the nation. It won't surprise me if Cal Poly struggles to reach 50 points here. Wichita State jumps ahead and coasts late in the game. Take the under here.
03-21-14	Eastern Kentucky v. Kansas OVER 146	Top	69-80	Win	100	114 h 25 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total The Kansas Wildcats have been capable of scoring a bunch of points all year, but they are playing even faster without Joel Embiid in the lineup. They are also a much worse defense without Embiid. Eastern Kentucky is shooting 56% on two-point shots this year, and they should get their points in this one. Expect an up and down affair with both teams preferring to run. The over is 5-1 in Eastern Kentucky's last 6 neutral site games. The over is 5-2 in their last 7 games overall. I had this one lined at 156 points. *Note- The line has moved up quickly here. I would play this one as high as 153 but no higher. Thank you.
03-21-14	UL-Lafayette v. Creighton OVER 156		66-76	Loss	-110	113 h 20 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns love to run and gun and try to outscore their opponent. That plays right into the hands of a team like Creighton. Creighton is built to put up points in a hurry, and they can shoot it from long range better than any other team in the nation. No one on this Lafayette team will be able to stop Doug McDermott. Creighton could put up 90 points or more here and it wouldn't be a surprise. Creighton's defense isn't particularly good and Lafayette will get up plenty of shots. I like this one to get over the total. Take the over.
03-20-14	Manhattan v. Louisville OVER 142.5	Top	64-71	Loss	-110	67 h 48 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total The Manhattan Jaspers are a team I like quite a bit. Unfortunately for them they drew a red hot Louisville team that is massively underseeded. Manhattan likes to use full court pressure and speed up the game, and they won't change their style here. Louisville will certainly be happy to run and press as well. This should be a fun game to watch thanks to the pace and all the up and down action. Even without good shooting numbers, I think this game gets over the total. I had this one lined at 148 points. The over is 6-0 in Louisville's last 6 NCAA Tournament games. The over is 14-3 in their last 17 neutral site games. Take the over big!
03-20-14	NC State v. St. Louis OVER 131.5		80-83	Win	100	27 h 27 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The NC State Wolfpack surprised a lot of people (including me), by winning against Xavier on Tuesday night. NC State has a star in TJ Warren on their roster, and he is going to get his points no matter who this team goes up against. St. Louis is playing a much faster paced game than they did last year. The Billikens are still a very good defense, but their tempo has changed in a big way. I think this line is too low since St. Louis will look to run when given the opportunity. I had this one lined at 135 points. Take the over.
03-19-14	Pacific v. Grand Canyon OVER 150.5		69-67	Loss	-110	55 h 13 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Late Night Total The Pacific Tigers have one of the worst defenses in the country. Pacific is able to score though, and they like to push the tempo. Pacific fouls a bunch and Grand Canyon is near the top of the charts in getting to the line. Expect tons of free points in this one. Grand Canyon wants to play fast and they'll get their chance to run like crazy in this one. Neither team will slow this game down. I had this total lined at 155 points. Take the over.
03-19-14	Detroit Pistons v. Denver Nuggets OVER 219		109-118	Win	100	20 h 50 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION The Detroit Pistons have sped up their pace in a big way late in the season. They have had one of the worst defenses in the league all year, but now that they are running and gunning they have had some extremely high scoring games this year. Denver is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the league in the past month. The Nuggets are capable of putting up 125 points by themselves here, and their defense certainly isn't very good either. There were 235 points in the last meeting between these two teams. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Denver. The over is 7-1 in Denver's last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. A 19-2 angle. Take the over.
03-19-14	Cal-Irvine v. SMU UNDER 126		54-68	Win	100	57 h 40 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The UC Irvine Anteaters made me more money this year than any other team in college basketball. Most of that money was made playing the 'under' in nearly every game of theirs. Irvine's defense is great with N'Diaye protecting the rim. Irvine also likes to slow the game down. SMU's defense is very underrated, and they prefer a slow tempo as well. Two good defenses here and it should be a slow paced game. I had this lined at 122 points. The under is 10-1 in Irvine's last 11 non-conference games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in SMU's last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 non-conference games. A 23-1 angle. Take the under.
03-19-14	Toledo v. Southern Mississippi OVER 144	Top	59-66	Loss	-110	56 h 11 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Total The Toledo Rockets have a very efficient offense, but their defense is terrible. Southern Miss has typically slowed the game down, but late this season they started playing a little faster. Southern Miss is great at getting to the free throw line, and Toledo fouls quite a bit. The Golden Eagles offense is good to start with, and they should look great against a very bad Toledo defense. Two extremely good offenses here, and this should be a shootout. The over is 5-0 in Toledo's last 5 Wednesday games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 6-1 in Southern Miss' last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. A 15-1 angle. Take the over big!
03-19-14	Indiana Pacers v. New York Knicks UNDER 195.5		86-92	Win	100	19 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Pacers/Knicks Total The Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks meet at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night. The Knicks offense has come alive of late, lighting up the scoreboard in five straight games. I don't think they'll have that same kind of offensive success against the best defense in the NBA. Indiana is highly unlikely to allow the Knicks to get as many open shots as their recent opponents. The Knicks have lit up Minnesota, Philly, Milwaukee, Boston, Cleveland, and Utah. None of those are good defenses at all. This line is inflated due to the Knicks recent offensive success. How inflated? The last time these two met the total was 184 points. An overreaction here. Take the under.
03-19-14	Morehead St. v. Illinois State OVER 142.5		67-77	Win	100	53 h 13 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Track Meet Total The Morehead State Eagles and Illinois State Redbirds both like to run and push the tempo. They both had to play some teams inside their conferences that worked hard to slow them down, but that won't be a problem here. When these two fast paced teams get together, it should be a real track meet. Both of these teams foul a lot, so I expect trips to the charity stripe to help us out a lot in this game. I had this game lined at 147 points. Take the over.
03-19-14	Chicago Bulls v. Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 196		102-94	Push	0	18 h 57 m	Show
3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER The Chicago Bulls are the second best defensive team in the NBA. They are also the third worst offense in the NBA. The Philadelphia 76ers are the worst team in the NBA in terms of efficiency by a mile. Two bad offenses and a team that controls the tempo (Chicago) should mean this one stays lower scoring than expected. The 76ers have scored just 77 and 90 points in their last two games. They only scored 78 in their last game against Chicago. The under is 4-0 in the 76ers last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games overall. A 12-0 angle. Take the under.
03-18-14	High Point v. Minnesota OVER 133.5		81-88	Win	100	30 h 52 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO The Minnesota Golden Gophers were a decent Big Ten team, which means they should be able to blow away High Point if they are ready for this game. High Point likes to slow the game down, but I expect them to get down big early and be forced to speed up if they want to have any chance of winning. These smaller postseason tourneys generally have higher scoring games than expected. I had this one lined at 138. Take the over here.
03-18-14	Columbia v. Valparaiso UNDER 129.5	Top	58-56	Win	100	31 h 24 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Total The Columbia Lions are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation. Columbia is going to play their style of basketball no matter who they are playing against. Valparaiso tends to play to the pace of their opponent, and their offense isn't good enough to pile up the points against a quality Columbia defense. This has the makings of a tight low scoring game that goes down to the wire. I had this one at 123 points. The under is 7-0 in Columbia's last 7 following a double digit home loss. The under is 10-1 in their last 11 following an ATS loss. The under is 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. A 25-2 angle. Take the under big!
03-18-14	Norfolk State v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 127.5		54-58	Win	100	31 h 42 m	Show
4 Star 100% Angle CRUSHER The Norfolk State Spartans and the Eastern Michigan Eagles are similar teams. Both of them aren't very good offensively, but they are both excellent on the defensive end. This could easily be a game where we see both teams shoot a very low percentage from the floor. Eastern Michigan has slowed their pace down late in the season, and that should help out here. The under is 7-0 in Norfolk State's last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. An 11-0 angle. Take the under.
03-18-14	Wright State v. East Carolina UNDER 134.5	Top	73-59	Win	100	30 h 0 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Under Radar Total The Wright State Raiders had the best defense in the Horizon League and they love to slow the game down. East Carolina started out playing fast, but they slowed things down in a big way as the season was winding down. There has been good value on the under with them of late. This should be a slower paced game than most expect. Expect a close hard fought battle between two teams who win with their defense first. I had this one lined at 128 points. Take the under big!
03-17-14	Philadelphia 76ers v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 203		90-99	Win	100	16 h 43 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION The Philadelphia 76ers definitely like to run, but they are also the least efficient offense in the NBA. Indiana has the top defense in the NBA. The Pacers could easily hold the 76ers to 75-80 points in this game. These two met last week and the game finished at 195 points despite the Pacers shooting 58.2% from the floor. The Pacers should get a big lead and then slow the game down because they don't care enough to keep piling on the points as much as they could. The under is 6-0-1 in the 76ers last 7 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 8-1-2 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record. An 18-1 angle. Take the under.
03-15-14	Sacramento Kings v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 190		87-94	Win	100	17 h 5 m	Show
3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER The Sacramento Kings were running and gunning as much as anyone for a while, but they have slowed their tempo down of late. The Chicago Bulls are the second slowest paced team in the league. They are also the second best defense in the league. The Bulls were embarrassed in Sacramento when they met last month. Sacramento won that game 99-70. The Bulls won't forget that, and I expect Chicago to come out playing some great defense in this one. This number is relatively high for a Chicago total. I had the game lined at 186 points. The under is 4-0 in the Kings last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in the Kings last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of at least 60%. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 following a win of 10 points or more. A 26-0 angle. Take the under.
03-15-14	New Mexico v. San Diego State UNDER 126.5		64-58	Win	100	6 h 52 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The New Mexico Lobos and San Diego State Aztecs have one heck of a history of playing low scoring games against each other. The two meetings during the regular season this year finished at 102 points and 99 points. San Diego State will likely go zone at least part of this game again, and the Lobos looked lost against that last time around. This game means a lot to both teams, and I expect open shots to be tough to come by. The under is 6-0 in the Lobos last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 11-1 in their last 12 following a win. The under is 6-0 in SD State's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 meetings. A 35-1 angle. Take the under.
03-15-14	Michigan State v. Wisconsin UNDER 137.5		83-75	Loss	-114	4 h 35 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special The Michigan State Spartans are great in March, and I expect them to be ready for this game. Wisconsin beat them 60-58 in the first meeting between these two. Both of these teams are defense-first. In a game that means a lot, I expect a slow tempo and lots of pressure defense that makes open shots hard to come by. Only one game between these two in the past 10 meetings has even gone above 125 points, and two of those games were overtime games. Defensive battle here. The under is 4-0 in Michigan State's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Wisconsin's last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 meetings. A 12-0 angle. Take the under.
03-15-14	George Washington v. VCU OVER 138.5		55-74	Loss	-118	4 h 31 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle Total The George Washington Colonials and VCU Rams met twice during the regular season and both games went over the posted total. George Washington's weakness is taking care of the ball, and VCU gets lots of easy buckets off their full court pressure against them. At the same time, VCU's halfcourt defense isn't very good so if George Washington is able to break the press they score quite efficiently. Both teams do quite a bit of fouling. I had this lined at 143 points. The over is 5-0 in George Washington's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in VCU's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 meetings. A 14-0 angle. Take the over.
03-15-14	NC State v. Duke OVER 144		67-75	Loss	-115	4 h 40 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB ACC Total The NC State Wolfpack have gotten hot at the end of the year, and it is largely because T.J. Warren is absolutely on fire offensively. No one has had an answer for Warren of late. Duke's defense isn't very good, but the Blue Devils should score at will against NC State in this one. The first game between these two finished in a Duke 95-60 win. I had this game lined at 149 points. Look for this to coast past the total. Take the over.
03-14-14	CS-Northridge v. Long Beach State OVER 148		82-77	Win	100	12 h 42 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT the Cal State Northridge Matadors have picked up the tempo in a big way at the end of the season. Their last 7 games have all played to a total of at least 158 points, which is pretty incredible. Long Beach State tends to play to the pace of their opponent. The 49ers are fully capable of lighting it up against this terrible Northridge defense. The most recent game between these two finished at 91-83. I had this one lined at 153 points. The over cashed in their last meeting. The over is 6-0 in Northridge's last 6. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 league games. A 17-0 angle. Take the over.
03-14-14	Baylor v. Texas UNDER 139		86-69	Loss	-110	10 h 41 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER The Baylor Bears are definitely playing better basketball of late. Baylor dug a big hole at Texas a couple weeks ago and almost came back and won. Texas shot a ridiculously high percentage from long range in that game. Expect this game to be played much slower with more normal shooting numbers. I had this game lined at 134 points. The under is 5-0-1 in Texas' last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 neutral site games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 Big 12 games. A 14-0 angle here. Take the under.
03-14-14	Colorado v. Arizona UNDER 130.5		43-63	Win	100	7 h 11 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The Colorado Buffaloes have squeaked out two close games in the Pac-12 Tournament. They haven't been able to get to 60 points yet, and I sincerely doubt they'll get to 60 points in this game. Arizona's defense held them to 61 on their home floor recently. Arizona's defense held Utah to 39 points yesterday, and this game is being played on a neutral floor where shooting numbers are typically lower. The under is 5-0 in Colorado's last 5 Friday games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games overall. The under is 4-0 in Arizona's last 4 Friday games. A 14-0 angle. Take the under.
03-14-14	Iowa State v. Kansas OVER 155.5		94-83	Win	100	7 h 40 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Big 12 Total The Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas Jayhawks will be getting out in transition early and often in this one. With Joel Embiid in the lineup, Kansas played slower and had a better defense, but the last meeting between these two still sailed past 160 points. The tempo should be very fast here, and I expect both teams to shoot a little better from the floor. I had this one at 161 points. Take the over.
03-14-14	Minnesota v. Wisconsin UNDER 136.5		57-83	Loss	-110	5 h 25 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Big 10 Total The Wisconsin Badgers have played slightly faster this year than they have in the past, but I can't imagine them running and gunning in important tournament games. Minnesota is looking to slow the game down, and this game means a ton to the Gophers, who are firmly on the bubble. The under is 5-0 in Wisconsin's last 5 neutral site games. I made the line here 132 points. Take the under.
03-14-14	Northwestern State v. Stephen Austin UNDER 157.5	Top	78-85	Loss	-110	4 h 58 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Total The Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks are a very good team. They are 29-2 on the year, and they are the best team in the Southland Conference. They win with strong defense, and they don't let their opponent force them into a fast paced game. Northwestern State is the fastest paced team in the nation, but they haven't been able to speed up Stephen F Austin in any of their meetings. The Lumberjacks know what they are good at, and they are great at sticking to the game plan. The last ten times these teams have met, the highest total was 138 points. That's 10 straight times they have played that under this number would have covered by at least 19 points. Take the under big here!
03-13-14	UC Riverside v. Cal-Irvine UNDER 130.5		43-63	Win	100	8 h 8 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION The UC Irvine Anteaters have made me more money this year than any other team in the nation. UC Irvine unders have been golden all year because of their great defense and the way they control the tempo against teams who aren't as good as them. The two meetings in the regular season between these team stayed well under. I had this game at 125 points. The under is 9-0 in Irvine's last 9 vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. The under is 4-0 in Irvine's last 4 following a win of 20 points or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 neutral site games. A 21-0 angle. Take the under.
03-13-14	Savannah State v. Norfolk State UNDER 128.5		47-57	Win	100	8 h 2 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total Savannah State has a way of turning games into very ugly low scoring contests. This is a team that is about as bad as you'll see on offense, but they are the best in the league on defense. Norfolk State has slowed their tempo down in a big way from last year. The regular season meeting between these two went way under this total. I had this game lined at 124 points. Take the under.
03-13-14	Ohio v. Akron UNDER 131.5		77-83	Loss	-110	6 h 13 m	Show
4 Star NCAA BB Oddsmaker ERROR Total The Ohio Bobcats and Akron Zips have a long history of playing tight low scoring games against each other. Their two games this year were defensive battles, and I see no reason to believe anything different will happen here. Ohio and Akron are two of the best defenses in the league, and this game means a ton to both teams. In a game that means this much, the pace generally slows down even more. I had this game lined at 127 points. Take the under.

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