Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks have been playing very quick this year. North Dakota has a history of playing quickly for the past few years, and they are doing the same this year. North Dakota is the second fastest paced team in the very quick Big Sky Conference. Northern Arizona is the third fastest team in the conference. 

The Big Sky Conference is known as a very high scoring conference, and this total is set a few points too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The LA Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns like to play very quickly. This is a team that is extremely aggressive on offense. Lafayette should get a lot of second chance opportunities against a South Alabama team that has struggled on the defensive glass of late. South Alabama and Lafayette met twice last year. The final totals in those games were 171 points and 174 points. That was before the rule changes to make games higher scoring. 

The over is 4-0 in Lafayette's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games following a three or more game road trip. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games against South Alabama. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 games between these two teams. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The IPFW Mastadons are without their leading scorer for the rest of the year. Mo Evans was declared academically ineligible. IPFW is still a quality team, but this should hurt their ability to put up big numbers on offense. North Dakota State is great defensively, and they slow the game down a bunch. Both of the games last year between these teams had a very slow tempo. I had this one at 139. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The Bradley Braves and Illinois State Redbirds meet tonight. Bradley has proven they cannot shoot the ball. Bradley is by far the worst team in the country when it comes to points per possession. In the conference, Bradley is scoring about 0.71 points per possession. That's awful. Average in the country is about 1.04 points per possession. Illinois State should grab the lead here and then win this game with their defense. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both teams like to press and force the issue. This should be a game that moves at a very quick tempo and I see this one getting past this posted total. 

*3 Star Play Over* Notre Dame is so efficient on offense. They are the number one ranked offense in the country in terms of efficiency. Virginia Tech plays extremely quickly and they are much better on offense than they have been in the past. I think both teams will shoot a good percentage and I had this at 155. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* Fordham and George Mason have played a lot of teams that prefer to push the pace this year, and that has made them have higher scoring games than you would expect. Now that they get to play against another team that plays slowly, I like the chances of this one being a low scoring game. A slow tempo with both offenses using up the shot clock. Take the under. 

*4 Star National TV Total* The Xavier Musketeers have been underrated by many people this year. Xavier has a lot of balance, and they are much improved on the defensive end. While most focus on their offensive prowess, this is a team that has been very good on defense all year. Georgetown doesn't have many scoring options, and the Hoyas are unlikely to be able to consistently get good shots against this Xavier defense. Both teams have shown signs of slowing down in conference play.

The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 4-0 in Georgetown's last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Xavier's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total Value* These two teams played a game earlier this year that finished at 98 points. This one won't be that low, but I also don't see it reaching the posted total. East Carolina slows the game down a lot, and Tulsa is playing at a pace of 5 possessions slower per game in the conference than they did in the non-conference slate. Look for this one to be a close low scoring battle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Ole Miss Rebels didn't play as quick early this season, but they have sped up their tempo a lot in the past month. Andy Kennedy's team seems to be more comfortable playing quickly and trying to score in transition. South Carolina is playing far faster this year than they have in the past, and I see this as a close game where both teams score a lot at the line and push it past this total. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Western Michigan Broncos have played to the pace of their opponent this year. Their coach recently said he would like his team to play more of an uptempo game. Here is there chance to do just that. Ohio plays at the fastest pace of anyone in the MAC. The Bobcats have several good long range shooters, and they are great at getting to the free throw line and scoring a lot of points from there. Both these teams foul more than the average team, so I see trips to the stripe contributing a lot here. 

The over is 7-0 in Ohio's last 7 conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS loss. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have been better defensively at home than on the road. Brooklyn and Toronto both rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in terms of pace. Brooklyn ranks third from the bottom in the NBA in offensive efficiency (only the Lakers and the 76ers are worse). It's unlikely the Nets will put up many here, and this looks like a spot where Toronto is unlikely to push to blow out the Raptors. A favorable referee crew for the under also. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic meet on Monday late afternoon. This is a very odd scheduling spot in general. Orlando is playing in their first game since playing overseas a couple days ago. That should lead to some tired legs on Orlando's part. Atlanta is getting ready to play a tough schedule, and I think they'll let off the gas if they lead late in this one.

These early day games have generally been very favorable for unders in the past. Additionally, games played on the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday in the past ten years have stayed under 64% of the time. This is likely largely because there are a lot of different start times than normal and there is usually a bunch of teams playing that haven't had much rest lately.

The under is 16-5 in Orlando's last 21 following a game where they allowed 100 plus points. The under is 21-5 in the last 26 meetings in Atlanta between these teams. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Monmouth Hawks are coming off a huge win at Iona. These two are rivals in the MAAC, and Monmouth went to Iona and put up 110 points in a massive win. Monmouth has been putting up huge point totals all year, and here they play against a Siena team that likes to run. Monmouth always wants to push the pace when they can, and in this one we get a lower number than I expected. Monmouth has scored at least 81 points in each of their last five games. Importantly, both of these teams are great at getting to the free throw line, and both of these teams also foul a lot on defense. There should be plenty of trips to the charity stripe in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The under is 18-3-1 in the New Orleans Pelicans road games so far this year. In this one they are playing an early game against Memphis, who is definitely a team that wants to slow the tempo down whenever possible.

These early day games have generally been very favorable for unders in the past. Additionally, games played on the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday in the past ten years have stayed under 64% of the time. This is likely largely because there are a lot of different start times than normal and there is usually a bunch of teams playing that haven't had much rest lately.

Brian Forte is the main referee here and he is a good under referee. With the early start and expected tempo of this game, the value is with the under. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NBA Total PERFECTION* The Charlotte Hornets host the Utah Jazz in an early game on Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the United States. This is a rare early Monday afternoon tipoff for these teams. These early day games have generally been very favorable for unders in the past. Additionally, games played on the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday in the past ten years have stayed under 64% of the time. This is likely largely because there are a lot of different start times than normal and there is usually a bunch of teams playing that haven't had much rest lately.

Utah plays at the slowest tempo in the NBA, and with Gobert back they have a great defender in the frontcourt. 

The under is 4-0 in Utah's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more last game. The under is 5-0 in Charlotte's last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Charlotte's last 4 vs. the NBA Northwest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 34-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Utah Utes experimented with playing quicker early in the season. It didn't work very well, so the team is back to slowing the game down. Utah was playing at almost 70 possessions per game in the non-conference slate, but they are down to 64 possessions per game in the conference. That's a big difference, and I don't think that's priced in accurately in this number. 

Oregon State is playing quicker than they did last year, and they are a better offense, but this is still a team that likes to play in halfcourt sets more often than not. Last year's meeting between these two was a ridiculous 47-37 game. This one won't be like that, but I think this number is several points too high.

Both teams were thumped in their last game, and I think that means they'll come out ready to play some strong defense in this matchup. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Buffaloes and Oregon Ducks are much different teams than they were just one year ago. Both of these teams are far better on defense this season, and both of them have slowed down their tempo in a big way in Pac 12 Conference action thus far. 

Oregon is actually playing at a pace slightly lower than the national average in league play. Colorado is right around the league average. Both of these teams are in the top 35 in the nation in defensive efficiency. Open looks will be tough to come by in this one.

The under is 4-0 in Oregon's last 4 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 Sunday games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 Pac 12 games. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Manhattan Jaspers aren't a deep team, and I think that's the reason they have decided to slow the tempo down in the past few games. Manhattan pressures the ball a lot on defense, and they are whistled for a lot of fouls. Because of that, their bench was getting very thin. On two different occasions this year, they almost had to finish the game with less than five players. Manhattan has slowed things down in the last couple weeks. Niagara is playing much better defense this year, and they are also one of the worst offensive teams in the country. The first meeting a couple weeks ago was sloppy and the final was 55-53. This will likely be higher than that, but I think it stays under.

The under is 26-9 in Niagara's last 35 Sunday games. The under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these teams. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night Totals MONEY* The Weber State Wildcats are one of two teams in the Big Sky Conference that play very good defense (Montana the other). Weber State should have value as an under team against most opponents in the conference because of this. Sacramento State is a team that plays to the tempo of their opponent. Weber State usually slows the game down. I think this line is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Portland State Vikings prefer to play very quickly, and they'll get a chance to play at a quick pace when they take on Idaho State in this one. Idaho State has played faster than anyone else in the Big Sky Conference in league play so far. The Bengals were previously a slow paced team, so I think there is still value here as the oddsmakers are a little slow to adjust on things like this. Both defenses are terrible here. I had 156 in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee State Tigers have been a good under team this year. This team has committed itself to playing hard on the defensive end this year, and the results have been great. Murray State is much worse on offense than last year, as they lost their top three offensive players from last year's team. Expect a close game here between two solid defenses. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves have the worst field goal percentage of any team in the country. Missouri State isn't any good on offense either. This should be one of the ugliest games of the day, and I think that means it will stay under the posted total. There's nothing entertaining about this game, but I still see value on the under. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wright State Raiders are great at controlling the pace of the game. Youngstown State has played a bunch of games that have gone well over this total lately, but that has been against teams like Oakland and Detroit. There's a big difference here. I see Wright State winning and slowing the game down. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* FIU and Southern Miss are two teams that really play at a slow pace. Southern Miss has one of the worst offenses in the nation and FIU isn't much better on offense. This projects as a really ugly game to watch, but one where the total is posted a few points too high. I had this one at 126 points. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both teams here shoot a bunch of free throws, and with the new rules this year, that has often meant games that finish over the total. I see a close game here which helps as well. Both teams prefer to run when they can, and they'll have that opportunity here. Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been great at playing a halfcourt game this year. They slow it down and look to win with their defense. Oklahoma State has to do that because they are without their best shooter, Phil Forte, who is injured. Texas is playing slowly most of the time, and I see a slow tempo for this game. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats are a strong defensive team who stalls throughout the game and looks to win a low scoring contest. Troy isn't very good, and I don't see them hitting a high percentage of their shots against this defense. The two games last year were both low scoring. I see the same happening here. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Louisiana Monroe has done a great job controlling the tempo against everyone they have played this year. The Warhawks are unlikely to allow Georgia Southern to get into transition. Georgia Southern has actually slowed things down significantly inside the conference, so I don't think this will end up being a pace war. I had this one at 132. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* I had a 5 star top play on the under the first time these two teams played, and I'm taking the under for a top play again here. The under cashed in last time by a couple points. It was a very low scoring game that blew up late (43 points in last 7 minutes) due to a major foul fest at the end of the game. 

East Carolina's offense has been unable to get anything going on the road in Conference USA action, and I think that will happen again here. Both teams are better defensively than they were a year ago. Both teams have slowed their tempo down quite a bit as well. I see a slow tempo and a game that stays under the total. I had this one projected at 133 points. Take the under. TOP RATED Play

*3 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders played quicker in the non-conference slate, but they have started to slow back down to the tempo they used to play inside the conference. Old Dominion is a good under team with a very slow tempo and a great defense. I lost with Old Dominion's under last time out, but that was solely because of overtime. You can't predict things like overtime, and I see this one being low scoring all the way. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The two meetings between these two teams last year finished at 96 points and 102 points. Am I suggesting this year's game will be that low? Of course not. I do believe it will fall under this posted total though. Drexel and Towson are the two slowest paced teams in the CAA. When these two get together I expect a sloppy game (both offenses are inefficient) and a very slow tempo. I had this one at 126 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northern Iowa is a big favorite here, and the thing I like best about taking unders with Northern Iowa is they are great at taking the air out of the ball once they have the lead. I have many times watched this team simply hold the ball near halfcourt until almost the end of the shot clock and then take a long three when they have the lead. Loyola plays very slowly too, and this should be a game with a very slow tempo. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers have played a lot of teams that slow the tempo down this year. Louisiana Lafayette isn't one of those teams. The Ragin' Cajuns push the pace in a big way and they are terrible on defense. Georgia State's weakness is defensive rebounding, and LA Lafayette should be able to take advantage of that. In last year's meetings, one tied this total and one went way over. With the new rules this year, I see this sailing over. Take the over. 

*4 Star Late Night BAILOUT Total* The Stanford Cardinal have totally changed the way they play this year. Stanford was a team that like to push the ball and score in transition in the past, but now they like to slow the game down and win low scoring games. Cal flirted with playing quickly in the non-conference slate, but the Golden Bears tempo has been much slower in recent weeks. This is a big rivalry game where both teams usually bring a good defensive effort. I had this one at 130. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks offense has been awful all year, and Idaho's defense is much improved this year. Northern Arizona plays relatively fast, but they are very inefficient. Idaho is slowing the game down and looking to win with defense. Idaho is the home team here and they have consistently been playing games under this total. Take the under. 

*3 Star WCC Total* The Santa Clara Broncos have been pretty bad on offense all year. They take too many poor shots, and the Broncos rely far too much on Jared Brownridge. Pepperdine has been one of the best defensive teams in the WCC the last few years, and they should be again this year. They slowed down St. Mary's last game. I think this stays in the upper 120's. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The Northern Colorado Bears play some really bad defense, but they don't like to push the tempo. Montana is the best defensive team in the Big Sky Conference, and they slow it down more than any other team in the conference. With the pace I expect here, this is a really high number. Montana has shown that they will slow the game down after grabbing a lead, and with them being favored here, I like the chances of this staying under the total. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Tennessee State Tigers are a much better team this year, and it's all because they have been a lot better on the defensive end. Not many teams in the Ohio Valley Conference play strong defense, but Tennessee State is doing it this year. Austin Peay doesn't run as much as they have in the past, and they will likely struggle to get their offense going in this one. I think 134 is where this number should be. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd can force the issue as well as anyone in the country. Marshall hasn't played a single game that finished with a total lower than 140 this year. That's really impressive when you consider they have played several teams that really try to stall and slow the game down. North Texas isn't one of those teams though, and I see the Mean Green running and gunning right along with Marshall. These are two bad defenses and with a ton of tempo, I see a very high scoring game. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rider Broncs slow the game down more than any other team in the MAAC. Marist is a poor team that generally plays to the pace of their opponent. Marist and Rider both have miserable offenses that have been shooting some ugly percentages from the floor of late. Both of their games last year went under this total, and both offenses are even worse than they were last season. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Dakota Fighting Hawks host this one, and North Dakota will push the tempo as they always do. Montana State is one of the worst defensive teams in the country. North Dakota has had offensive woes on the year overall, but against Montana State they should do just fine on offense. Montana State shoots it well from three and that should keep them in the game. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The UAB Blazers shot better than 70 percent from the floor in their win over Old Dominion last year. The Monarchs have heard all about that as well as their poor defensive performance last game against Southern Miss, and that should mean we get a strong defensive effort from ODU in this one. They have been one of the slowest paced teams and one of the best defenses in the country this year. UAB has slowed down significantly compared to last year. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes control the tempo very well. Northeastern is a team that has slowed down the tempo for many years as well. Northeastern is good at defending without fouling, which should limits the Dukes trips to the charity stripe here. With a slow tempo and fewer than average fouls, it would take some very high shooting numbers to beat this total. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Total* The Nevada Wolfpack have played 7 straight games that have gone over the posted total. There are two primary reasons for this trend. The first is Nevada has really picked up the pace this year under Coach Musselman. The second reason is Nevada is fouling like crazy. Opponents are racking up points at the line at a ridiculous rate. Wichita State actually shot 62 free throws against Nevada. That number is really mind boggling. Boise State is good at getting to the line, and they shoot 71.3% from the stripe. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB AAC Total* The Cincinnati Bearcats have been a massive under team in the last few years. The under is a whopping 66-27 in their last 93 games overall. Houston is playing improved defense and Kelvin Sampson's team should make it tough on Cincinnati to score much. Houston has been good on the offensive end this year, but they haven't played many teams that will challenge them physically on the defensive end. That changes tonight when they take on Cincinnati. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* This number is extremely low, but it's that low for a reason. Bradley is the single worst offense in the country. Bradley is shooting a miserable 24.5 percent from three point range this year. The Braves have scored 44, 58, 44, and 35 points in their Missouri Valley Conference games this year. It won't surprise me a bit if they score 45 or less again here. 

Loyola Chicago plays at a very slow pace and the Ramblers typically aren't the type of team that piles up the points even in blowouts. The two meetings between these two last year were 111 and 113 points, and Bradley had a much better offense last season. I had this number at 111. 

The under is 38-14 in Bradley's last 52 road games. The under is 10-1 in Loyola's last 11 home games vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been much better so far this year, and they'll get a test in Manhattan, Kansas tonight against Kansas State. Tubby Smith's team has been pushing the tempo a lot more early in the season, but I expect them to slow things down a bit in conference play, since that is what they have done in recent years. Kansas State is always looking to slow the game down with Bruce Weber as their coach. Kansas State is much better on the defensive end than they are on offense. This one is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* Central Michigan and Akron both prefer a slow tempo. Central Michigan is a good offensive team, while Akron is a very good defensive team. Akron is first in the nation in defensive percentage guarding three point shots. The Zips aren't likely to let Central Michigan's shooters get open looks here. Central Michigan relies heavily on three point shooting. This number has been bet up to a number that is several points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Western Michigan Broncos tend to play to the pace of their opponent. Ball State is definitely a team that slows things down. The Cardinals stalled out the last game between these two last year and it barely got above 100 points. Western Michigan's offense is much weaker without Tava (out for year). In league play, we typically see lower scoring games in the MAC, and I see that happening here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Heat and Warriors meet in a late night game at Oracle Arena on Monday night. Dwyane Wade has a bum shoulder but will try to play through it. Miami plays at the second slowest tempo in the league while Golden State plays at the second fastest tempo in the league. Golden State ranks fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Miami ranks sixth.

Golden State has been shooting lights out in their last three games, but those games were against the Lakers, Blazers, and Kings. Miami will fight to slow the game down a lot more than any of those teams would, and the Heat are the best defensive team Golden State has played in a while. Miami's offense has been inconsistent this year, and the Warriors should slow them down nicely.

The total here has gotten a little out of control. The Heat play 2.1 possessions slower on the road than at home. Golden State actually plays 1.3 possessions per game slower at home than on the road. 

The under is 40-14-1 in Miami's last 55 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their last game. The under is 20-6-1 in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take the under. 

*3 Star Villanova/Butler TV Total* The Butler Bulldogs have picked up their tempo this year overall, but I've noticed Butler has slowed things down considerably during the start of their Big East Conference season. The Bulldogs were playing at a pace of 70 possessions per game before Big East play, and now they are playing at 67 possessions per game in the conference. That's a significant difference and it adjusts the total downward by a few points. Villanova ranks sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The past history between these two suggests the defenses will have the upper hand as well. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The SMU Mustangs are a team that likes to slow the tempo down. UCF has been a quick tempo type of team in the past, but with two good big men in the post in 7'6 Tacko Fall and 6'10 325 pound Justin McBride, UCF has slowed things down in a big way this season.

The Mustangs are coming off a huge emotional victory over Cincinnati, and I don't see them being excited to run up the score and push the tempo here. Rather, they should be happy to pick up a win against a UCF team that doesn't have nearly as much offensive firepower.

I think this line should be in the upper 130's. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Auburn Tigers do a nice job forcing the pace to be quick. Bruce Pearl's team will press and force Missouri to play quicker than normal. Also, it's important to note that Kim Anderson, Missouri's Coach, has stated multiple times this year that he wants to play a quicker tempo. Here's there chance to do just that. In a close game here, I expect a lot of free throws. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO *The Temple Owls and East Carolina Pirates are two teams who like to slow the game down whenever they can. No one will be pushing the pace here. These two played a game that finished well under this posted total last year. Temple has been at their best this year when they are focusing on the defensive end, and they have a good coach in Dunphy who will have them working hard here. East Carolina takes a lot of bad shots, but the Pirates have improved a lot on defense the last couple years. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Big Sky Total* The Idaho State Bengals have decided to play a lot faster this year. Idaho State still has the horrible defense they have had in past years, but they are slightly better on offense. North Dakota always wants to play quickly and try to get buckets in transition. A total at this number is very low with the new rules this year when we get a matchup of two teams who like to run. Both teams foul a lot and I expect a lot of trips to the charity stripe here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The Weber State Wildcats are one of the two teams in the Big Sky Conference that works hard on defense (Montana the other). It's not a coincidence that those are the two best teams in the league this year. Northern Colorado will likely get blown out here, and that should be a good thing for the under. Weber State has shown that they usually take their foot off the gas and have some mercy when they are up big. This is a high posted total, so if Weber slows the game down with a lead, I like our chances of cashing this one. 

The under is 6-0 in Weber State's last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with road win percentage of 40% or lower. A 16-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* What was the score the last time these two teams played? 45-38. Yes, you read that correctly. I'm certainly not predicting anything like that, but this number is too high. Tennessee State has really improved on the defensive side of the ball, and the Tigers should be able to slow the game down and win comfortably with that good defense. Edwardsville has been terrible on offense all year. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* This total is very high for a good reason. There are 351 teams in the country. These teams rank 14th fastest and 15th fastest in the nation in terms of tempo. Both are going to look to run at every opportunity. LA Lafayette will be able to grab a lot of offensive boards and get second chance points here, which will be big. Both teams are good at getting to the line as well. I had this one at 169 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have played more than half of their games to a final score lower than this. This is the best defense they have played all year. Old Dominion plays at the fourth slowest tempo in the country. Old Dominion should grab a lead here and then let their defense do the rest. I had this one at 114 points. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* The Northern Iowa Panthers have been a team that controls the tempo for many years. They are no different this year. Drake is the same type of team, they just aren't as good at winning games because they have less talent. 

Drake and Northern Iowa are in-state rivals and these games have a long history of being low scoring. Last year, the two games finished with 122 points and 104 points. The pace in each game was 48 possessions, which ranked in the top ten slowest games in the country for the season as a whole. These two teams aren't speeding up the game, so unless someone shoots a ridiculously high percentage, I think this stays under. 

I projected this at 130 points. Take the under big.

*4 Star NCAA BB Sun Belt Total* I'll be the first to admit that I don't normally want to take an under that is this low this season, but this one is still several points too high for these two teams. Arkansas Little Rock is one of the best turnaround stories in college hoops this year. They are playing tremendous defense and slowing the game down in a big way. LA Monroe is a team that struggles on the offensive end, but they work really hard on defense. I projected a total of 114. Very low scoring game. Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* The Denver Pioneers and IPFW Mastadons played twice last year. The number of possessions in those two games was 49 possessions per team in the first game and 48 possessions per team in the second game. Those were two of the slowest ten games in all of college basketball last year! IPFW won both of those games and I don't see them wanting to speed the tempo up this year after winning with that style of play last year. 

Denver ranks as the third slowest team in the country this year. The Pioneers lost a lot of offensive talent from last year, and they've had some very low scoring games this season already. Four of their last five games have gone under this total.

I projected this number to be 130 points. Big line value here. Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Elon Phoenix have been very consistent at playing at a really quick tempo this year. Elon has pushed the pace against everyone they have played. In this game, they shouldn't have much trouble getting the style of play they really want. Hofstra also prefers to play quickly, and Hofstra has an excellent offense. Both teams can shoot it from long distance and the free throw line. Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles have drastically slowed down their pace of play in the last couple years. Morehead State is now a defensive team that looks to win low scoring games. Tennessee Martin tries to slow down the game as well, but most teams in the OVC look to run. In this game, they'll get their wish and it should be a slow paced game. I see both defenses having the upper hand in this one. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams have been slowing their tempo down of late. I had this game projected at 140 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Canyon Berry is C of C's star player who takes 35% of their shots and he is expected to miss this game. These teams played twice last year and the final total in both games was 104 points. I see a sloppy game here all the way. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Pepperdine Waves have been a good defensive team over the last couple years. Pepperdine should be able to handle a team like Pacific who takes a lot of bad shots from the floor. Pepperdine was the second best defensive team in the West Coast Conference last year behind only Gonzaga. They should be right around that area again here. Pacific and Pepperdine both like to move at a slow tempo, so I don't expect a lot of possessions in this game. The games between these two last year finished at 132 points and 93 points respectively. Take the under here. 

*3 Star SEC Total* The Alabama Crimson Tide have turned into a defensive stalwart in their last few games. Alabama has seen 5 of their last 6 games fall under this posted total, and most have gone way under the mark. Ole Miss has played several fast paced teams of late, which has bumped up their final scores. This time they'll play an Alabama team that wants to grind it out in a halfcourt game. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Michigan State Spartans have been consistently slowing the tempo down this year. Michigan State is great at getting the lead and then controlling the clock this season. They should be able to grab the lead and control the clock against an Illinois team that hasn't been very good this year. 

Illinois has tried to push the tempo when they can, but Illinois wasn't able to push the tempo at all last year when these two met. Both games between these two finished with a total of 113 points! That's far lower than this posted total, and I see a lot of value on this one.

The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two at Michigan State. The under is 4-1 in MSU's last 5 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The Marshall Thundering Herd have only played two games that fell below this posted total all year. One of them landed at 140 and the other at 146. Marshall is very consistently high scoring thanks to their poor defense and extremely quick tempo. When betting an over, I love to see consistency, and that's what Marshall has shown us this year. Florida Atlantic played Eastern Kentucky recently and the final was 80-73. Eastern Kentucky is a very similar team to Marshall. This one should get to that same area. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Siena Saints always like to play quick. In the past, Fairfield has been a slow it down type of team, but they have a whole new style where they are playing as fast as anyone in the conference this year. That should equal a lot of points going on the board in this one. Siena is great on the offensive glass, and Fairfield is terrible on the glass. Look for Siena to get a bunch of second chance points. Both teams foul quite a bit, and both teams shoot a solid 71% from the line. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oregon State Beavers started league play with an impressive home win over their rivals from Oregon on Sunday night. Oregon State showed me something important in that game as well. The Beavers slowed the tempo down drastically compared to what they had been doing in non-conference play. I think that likely means Oregon State will be looking to play halfcourt games in the Pac 12 as they did last season.

Stanford has changed their tempo drastically this year as compared to last season. The Cardinal rank 322nd out of 351 teams in terms of tempo so far this year. Stanford struggles to score unless they get to the line often, and Oregon State has been good at defending without fouling this year. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The Texas A&M Aggies and Mississippi State Bulldogs are both playing at a quick tempo this year. Ben Howland's team has played a few teams that slow down the tempo in the past couple weeks, and that has led to some lower scores in their games. Texas A&M won't slow down the pace though, and both of these offenses have been efficient this year. 

Look for a close game throughout, and fouling at the end could easily be the reason this one ends over the posted total. I had this one at 150 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Northern Iowa Panthers have always been one of the slowest paced teams in the country. Northern Iowa is great at both grabbing defensive rebounds as well as defending without fouling. Missouri State's offense is very inefficient. In their Missouri Valley Conference games so far, Missouri State is averaging only 0.90 points per possession. 

Northern Iowa has played some very low scoring games this year, and some of them have been against fast paced teams that generally play high scoring games. Their games against Hawaii, Washington State, and New Mexico are good examples of that. 

Missouri State has a long history of being a good under play inside the Missouri Valley Conference. The under is 22-8 in Missouri State's last 30 MVC games. The under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Miami Heat have been a tremendous under team this year. It makes sense because they are playing at the second slowest tempo in the league, and they have the fourth ranked defense in the NBA. New York has been playing some high scoring games lately, which has propped this total up a bit to where I believe the under is a nice value. 

The first two meetings between these two teams finished 97-78 and 95-78 in favor of the Heat. The posted totals in those games were 190 and 187 points. I see no reason to have a jump to 193.5 after those first couple meetings. 

The under is 22-11-1 in the Heat's games this year. The under is 16-7 in the Heat's last 23 games on one day of rest. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The UCF Knights have slowed down their pace significantly this year because Tacko Fall is now in the middle. Fall is a 7'6 center who has totally changed the way this team plays on both ends of the floor. They went from a bad defense to a very good defense quickly. They also slowed their tempo down out of need. 

USF is very inefficient on offense, and USF also prefers to slow the pace down. UCF is also very good at defending without fouling. They have committed the 16th fewest fouls out of 351 teams in the country. I think this number should be 130. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Syracuse Orange have one of the best defenses in the country with their matchup zone. Syracuse is occasionally hurt by teams who really shot the three ball well, but Clemson isn't one of those teams. Since Syracuse has come into the ACC, these teams have played twice and the final totals were 101 and 119 points. Syracuse is playing much slower on a relative basis this year than they did last season. Both teams will be glad to play slowly here.

The under is 8-0 in Cuse's last 8 vs. the ACC. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. A 12-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The East Carolina Pirates have been a really good under team for me in the past couple years. East Carolina is improved defensively, and they are much slower paced than they were in the past. Tulsa had toyed with playing a quicker tempo earlier this year, but their last couple games they have been slowing things down again. Both meetings between these two teams last year finished well under this posted total. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic meet on Monday night. Orlando is playing on one day of rest and the under is 14-8 in their 22 games on a day of rest this year. Elfrid Payton is listed as questionable for this one, and if he does play he'll be at far less than 100 percent. Payton is a guy that gets things running for the Magic, and this injury certainly hurts the Orlando offense. 

The three referees in this game are very helpful to the under. Combined, they have a record of 42-27 to the under so far this year overall. Two of the three referees here have strong long-term under trends. 

The under is 4-0 in Orlando's last 4 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss by more than 10 points. A 10-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* I have admittedly been wrong about Manhattan a few times this year. Manhattan is a team I've looked to play overs with, and so far they have been a good under team. I think that will change. Manhattan still plays at a quick tempo, and they are still fouling as much as any team in the country. Manhattan has had some awful shooting numbers, which I assume will improve at least somewhat.

Siena is playing even faster this year, and the Saints are great at getting to the line. Siena put up 89 points and got to the line a whopping 44 times in the first game between these two teams. The total here has been lowered by about 6 points from the first meeting. That's too big of an adjustment. Manhattan should knock down a few more shots at home, and I think this one gets past the posted total. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are an extremely high scoring team. Oakland plays at the 15th fastest tempo in the country out of 351 teams. Youngstown State has a terrible defense, and they play at the 61st tempo in the country.

Oakland and Youngstown State have played 3 of their last 4 games to a total of 168 points or higher. Yes, this total is a bit higher than that, but that's because of the new rules in college hoops that has led to a lot more scoring this year. Youngstown has given up 100 points or more three times this year. Oakland may get to almost 100 here. 

The over is 5-0 in Youngstown State's last 5 games. The over is 6-0 in Oakland's last 6 games following an ATS win. An 11-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks play at the third fastest tempo in the country out of 351 teams. IUPUI has shown that they are willing to play at the pace of their opponent so far this year. Last year's meeting between these two in Omaha finished 89-84, and with the new rules, scoring is up a lot this season. 

Both of these teams foul a lot, so a lot of trips to the charity stripe could play a key role in this game. My numbers made this game 162 points. Take the over here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The FIU Panthers have totally changed the way they play this year. FIU is stalling out offensively and looking to win low scoring games. That fits perfectly in with what Florida Atlantic has been doing of late as well. Ron Delph has played the last five games for Florida Atlantic and all five of those games have gone under the total. Delph is 7 footer who is a great defensive presence in the lane. 

Both of these teams like to mix in zone defense to slow the game down. This is a rivalry game and that often helps the under. Last year the two meetings between these teams finished at 122 and 120 points. I had this number at 120 points. Look for solid defense from both teams.

The under is 5-0 in Florida Atlantic's last 5. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 Sunday games. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The St. Mary's Gaels are shooting 47% from three point range. San Diego isn't a particularly strong defensive team, so I see no reason to believe St. Mary's will struggle shooting against them. Though both teams prefer to play slowly, the new rules mean that they can't stall as much as they have in previous years. Look for St. Mary's to be very efficient here and put up a big enough number to push this over. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The New Mexico Lobos have totally changed their tempo from last year. Coach Neal had to stall things out last year after some of his best scorers went down with injuries. This year, New Mexico is pushing the pace at every chance. Fresno State is playing much faster than last year as well, so there shouldn't be anyone slowing this one down. I had this total at 152 points. Both teams get to the line often. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Big Sky Total* The Idaho State Bengals are a really bad team, and Weber State is the best team in the Big Sky Conference. The better team can generally control the tempo of the game, and Weber State wants to play slowly. Look for them to get a nice lead and then coast to the finish in this one. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies play the best defense in the Big Sky, and Southern Utah is without Hess, one of their primary scorers. Montana should be able to slow the game down against a short handed Southern Utah team who doesn't want to run now. Last year's game between these two finished more than 25 points below this total. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*3 Star Play Under* 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*5 Star College Hoops TOP Total of the Week* The East Carolina Pirates and the UCF Knights are both teams I've been looking to play unders with this year, and this meeting is one I had circled to play the under.

UCF is playing a much slower tempo this year due to 7'6 Tacko Fall's presence in their lineup. He changes the way they play on offense, and he makes the team much better on the defensive end. Fall has been as good as advertised this year, and he'll change plenty of shots here.

In the past couple seasons, East Carolina has been a very nice under the radar "under" team with a big style change to a much slower tempo. The under is 17-8 in their last 25 home games. They are continuing that slower pace this year, and I don't see either team looking to push the pace here.

Last year, when UCF was playing a quicker tempo, these two teams played games that finished at 116 and 137 points. The tempo in each of those games was 58 possessions, which is ridiculously slow. I like this play. Take the under. *College Hoops TOP Total of the Week* 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*5 Star Notre Dame/Virginia TOP Play Total* The Virginia Cavaliers are playing at the slowest tempo of any team in the nation. That is 351 teams. Notre Dame is playing at 317th fastest tempo, so the Fighting Irish will be happy to slow the game down with Virginia here. 

Notre Dame's offense is good, but they are down a notch from last year's team. Virginia always plays very tough defense for Tony Bennett. The Fighting Irish aren't a great defensive team, but they foul the third least of any team in the country, which is a big benefit here since Virginia is great at the free throw line.

A very slow tempo should be expected here. Barring some very high shooting percentages, I like the chances of this one staying comfortably under the total. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*3 Star Play Under*