Sports Picks & Predictions

This game fits a situation that is 280-148 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 280-148 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 528-367 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 104-66 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 492-406 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 113-67 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 280-147 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 57-33 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 81-46 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 279-147 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 57-32 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 292-172 ATS and the play is on the over.

The New England Patriots allowed a grand total of 32 points in their last 3 games. This may poise many bettors to look at the under here. History proves otherwise, as a playoff team that has allowed 32 or less combined points in their last 3 games are 35-14 ATS to the over. That includes 9-0 ATS to the over of the total is 46 or higher and 17-4 ATS if the total is higher than 43. Unlike many years in New England, foul weather will not be in play. Make the play on the over. 

This game fits a situation that is 292-172 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 279-146 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 480-404 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 526-367 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 490-403 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 130-49 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 130-49 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 272-176 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 277-145 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 277-145 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 286-208 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 236-142 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 375-226 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 237-158 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 303-222 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 488-400 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 374-225 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 285-207 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 488-399 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 226-124 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 34-10 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 80-37 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 289-172 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 127-49 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 284-172 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 83-48 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 487-399 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 126-49 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 80-46 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 549-388 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is1004-831 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is100-45 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 283-171 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 55-14 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 526-365 ATS and the play is on the over.

Might be some rain early on Friday but it appears things should rapidly improve prior to kickoff here. this game is all about the QBs as Auburn signal caller Jarrett Stidham will be entering the NFL draft, but will play in the Bowl. I'm sure he is looking to brush up his resume vs a Purdue team that ranked in the bottom 10 this season in pass defense. Purdue has a very good QB of their own in David Blough who threw for 277+ yards in 9 of his last 10 games. he has a speedy target in freshman Rundale Moore who caught 103 balls for 12 TDs. Auburn faced some very strong defensive teams in LSU, Washington, Miss St., A&M, Georgia, and Alabama, where they averaged 22ppg, but vs everyone else 38.2ppg. The ball is going to be successful in the air here, make the play on the over.

One of the lowest Bowl totals in quite some time, as California takes on TCU. The Bears have struggled in offense all season, and their last 5 games shows they scored 15,13,13,12, and 33. They scored 33 vs Colorado by opening the first quarter with 2 pick-6's, so in reality the offense scored 19. TCU is down to their 3rd string QB, and they have also struggled all season. The best units on the field will be both defenses which are among the best in the country. The total may be low, but not low enough. This is an era of high scoring so sometimes these low totals tend to push the bettor toward the over. The last 2 years in games played with a P5 conference favorite and a total of less than 41 the under is 13-1! The average score was 22.8 to 7.9. Only one game reached as high as 43 points and that game saw running TDs of 71,67, and 60 yards, so a certain outlier. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 77-31 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 122-48 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 122-48 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 273-171 ATS and the play is on the under.

A Bowl game where a team averages 40.25 points per game or more and the total is set at less than 64 with a line of less than or equal to +3 (which includes them as a PK or favorite). The under is 20-3 ATS in the last 23 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

This game fits my strongest total situation that is 123-48 ATS. The play is on the over.

Conference-USA December Bowl favorites with a total from 50 to 63.5 and not favored by -8 or more are 10-0 to the under. Make the play on the under. 

A Bowl game where a team averages 40.25 points per game or more and the total is set at less than 64 with a line of less than or equal to +3 (which includes them as a PK or favorite). The under is 20-3 ATS in the last 23 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

This game fits my highest rated total situation which is 121-47. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that 591-477 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that 438-297 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that 83-43 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 271-143-9 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 143-101-3 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 1000-829-41 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 91-64-2 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 322-192 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 322-192 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is huge, at 119-46-4. Make the play on the over.

I have my best situation that I ever discovered that is active for this game. It is a ridiculous 368-185 to the UNDER, converting 66.7% of 553 bets. It has a Z-score of an off the charts 7.79 z-score, making it extremely predictable. When it has been a matchup of ACC teams it has been 47-14 to the UNDER at 77%. Make the play on the UNDER.

The Big-12 Championship game is a rematch of the Sooners only defeat this season as Texas won a shootout early in the season 48-45. The Sooners have the best offense in terms of yard per play of any team in NCAA Football history. The problem is they have also allowed 40+ points in each of their last 4 games, including 40 to Kansas which hadn't scored more than 35 in over 8 years in a B-12 game. Oklahoma is 9-0-1 to the over this season facing P5 opponents with an average of an astounding 87.2ppg scored by both teams. (100.6ppg last 4). Texas has been in shootouts vs the best offenses in the B-12 all season. Texas games vs Oklahoma (93), Texas Tech (75), W. Va. (83), and Oklahoma St. (73), have averaged 81ppg. Saturday games (regular rest and routine), played between a pair of P5 opponents on a neutral field are 12-0 to the over when the total is 73 or higher. These games have beaten the lofty totals by +14.62 ppg. Bettors love the over, but usually, play under these big totals. Make the play on the over.

NFL Thursday division games with a total from 36.5 to 45 are 22-2 to the under after week 11. (15-1 under in the NFC). Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is O/U:388-478-11 (-1.83, 44.8%), make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is O/U:43-74-5 (-4.03, 36.8%), make the play on the under.

This game fit a totals situation that is O/U:94-58-4 (3.05, 61.8%)  avg total: 217.5. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is O/U:152-120-5 (1.22, 55.9%). Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 141-97-12 to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 94-57-4 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 141-97-12 to the under. Make the play on the under.

Youthful and talented Kings looking for their 5th straight win after opening the season at 1-3. The difference is the realization that they need to play on both ends of the court, and after allowing a ridiculous 129.5ppg in their 1-3 start they are allowing 104 in their 4-0 streak. Atlanta has had some ugly shooting nights at 40% or less in 3 of their last 4. Atlanta opponents 43% or less in 3 of 4, points to value on the under in this one.

The Oklahoma City Thunder finally got in the win column last time out breaking a 4 game losing streak to start the season. The Thunder has shot the ball very poorly but finally broke out so see some shooting variance to spark a higher scoring game as their pace has been above the total here squeezing off 93 shots a game. Clippers pouring in 116.5ppg topped the 100 shot mark last game. This one has technical support as well with a 900 game sample size that has connected on 58% to the over long term. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a long-term 567-444 situation. Make the play on the under.

 The Philadelphia 76ers arrived in the playoffs a year ahead of schedule last year. They seem to be struggling to make the same commitment on the defensive end of the floor. The 76ers allowed 50 points to Detroit's Blake Griffin, and a triple-double to Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo. Enter Kemba Walker. Opponents shooting 51% vs Philadelphia on the season. Despite having a pair of players grabbing 10+ rebounds a night the Sixers have out-rebounded just 1 of 5 opponents. Joel Embiid is questionable with an ankle injury and Sixers could speed things up with him off the floor (they were an over team last year without him). This game also fits a huge pace indicator that has been 246-146-8 to the over. Make the play on the over.

The pace of the game to open the season in the NBA has increased dramatically but think the oddsmakers are over-reacting trying to close the gap. This game has some value here and technical support with a 74-41 situation that says this one is posted too high. Make the play on the under.

Strictly a very strong situational play for tonight which is 244-143-8 to the over. Make the play on the over.

The Giants are giving up points at an alarming rate, while the Falcons have topped the 30 point mark in 4 of their 6 games. It certainly looks like a shootout is about to take place, but then there is the contrarian nature of the NFL and history suggests otherwise. Here are some examples. A team that is allowing 27ppg or more on the season and has allowed 25 or more in 4 straight games is 4-26 O/U in their last 30 games, including 0-10 O/U in the last 10. Giants have played 14-33 O/U in their last 47 vs a team that allows 24 or more points per contest. The last 10 meetings between these teams, with no overtime has gone 0-9-1 O/U with no game topping 50 total points scored, averaging just 34 points a game. Make the play on the under.

Scoring and pace of the game is soaring early this season with the average total posted by odds makers at 218.5 which is the highest average in 23 years of data I have. The odds makers having trouble keeping up as 27 of the 39 NBA games played have averaged 226.6ppg. Minnesota opponents squeezing off 95 shots a game and their 3 games have averaged 250 points. Indiana joining in with a 244 point combined total last time out vs Brooklyn. A 400 game sample size situation active here on the over as well at 59%. Make the play on the over.

The NBA is underway and today in the newsletter we will take a look and see if we can answer the question does a pair of teams off a high scoring game serve as a breeding ground for another high scoring game? Universally speaking I would tend to think no, nit in the case I am about to present the answer is a resounding yes. Let's jump right in and take a look at the parameters:

1)  Road team is off a game where both teams combined for more than 225 points.

2)  Home team is off a game where both teams combined for more than 235 points.

3)  The total is less than 232. (oddsmakers have not adjusted enough).

When all of the above is met these teams have played to a record of:

132-65-4  O/U  

That is 200+ games with a win rate of 67%!

Tonight consider a play on Sacramento/New Orleans over the total

The first leg of the Commander and Chief Trophy will see Navy heading to the Air Force Academy. There is no secret what to expect here, both teams run out of the triple option, and Navy has gone pretty much exclusively to the run, completing just 17 passes on the season. The one thing about the option is it is difficult to prepare for as most teams do not see it but once a season, but since both run their offense out of the option, they practice against it every day. That has led to a lot of lower scoring games than expected when Air Force, Army, and Navy get together. The last 48 times a game has been between 2 of these 3 schools the under is 35-13. This year has elements to conclude that to be the case in this one. Navy QB, Malcolm Perry is coming off a concussion, and Air Force QB Isaiah Sanders has a concussion and is questionable. Navy back up Zack Abby is also questionable, as he is used in the red-zone where he has 6 TD`s. Additionally, when Coach Niumatalolo is off a bye, his team has been 15-2 to the under, on the road. Navy is now 27-12 to the under vs a team that averages less than 150 yards a game, and 35-17 to the under vs a team that averages over 200 yards on the ground. Air Force is averaging 3.77 yards per carry on the season, their lowest mark in years. Make the play on the under.

The Indianapolis Colts will be without TY Hilton tonight, which is a blow to their offense. They also have 27 players on their injury report, the top number in the entire NFL. The Colts have played 9 straight games as a dog to the under, averaging just 15ppg. Thursday night home favorites of -9.5 or more are now 14-0 to the under vs an opponent with revenge, as long as the total is greater than 35. NFL Thursday Night games with a home favorite are 82-55 to the under, including 20-4 from -9.5 and up, with the opponent averaging 11.2ppg. (9.4ppg ig the opponent is playing with revenge). Make the play on the under.

I don't play a lot of blind systems but this one is 117-47, to the under, so make the play on this game in the under.

The Arizona Cardinals have managed 6 total points through 2 games. The 6 points they managed to score came in garbage time in the 4th quarter of their first game, with less than 6 minutes to go in the game. The biggest problem has been falling behind early, and having to throw the ball on almost every down. Sam Bradford therefore has been under siege and is averaging just 4 yards per attempt. The Cards longest run has been 11 yards, and longest pass 27 yards. Falling way behind early has limited their best offensive player, RB David Johnson to 11 carries a game. The NFL always looks different than it does 2 weeks into the season, and it forces the odds makers to over-adjust things in anticipation of the public's "what I have seen" posture of betting. Early season low totals have long been over-adjusted on a couple poor performances. Since the start of the 2005 season a week 3 total of 42 points or less, has seen the over go 54-21-1, beating the total on average by +5.12 points per game. Another indicator of an over-adjustment is the fact that when a team scores less than 7 points combined in 2 straight games, the over has been 27-10-2, beating the total by +6.96 points per game. The team that scored less than 7 points combined over 2 games, has come out in the next game averaging 20.1ppg. Make the play on the over.

NFL TOTALS, WHERE IS THE MONEY?

My research on sports betting totals is quite expansive. I believe that the easiest point of entry going against the books, and of course, the odds makers, can be achieved this way. The logic is pretty simple, some bettors hate totals, and even more bettors hate betting under the total, for the simple reason your bet may be lost before the game ends. 

The question then is, how do you find logical bets regarding totals, and successfully win at a high rate? The process begins as usual, by breaking down the 3 types of regular season games played in the NFL. They are divisional (6), conference (6), and out of conference (4). 

It would then make sense to take a look at match ups in all 3 levels to see what we are looking at:

GAME TYPE                 TOTAL RESULT O/U                WIN RATE     O/U

DIVISION                               1437-1546-53                           .482**

CONFERENCE                     1151-1152-59                           .500

NON CONFERENCE              881-841-26                             .512

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This is no surprise to me, the UNDER rate strikes more frequently, as the level of importance to the game increases. The order of importance is the exact order you see above, and there is a correlation to game importance and frequency of the under. 

So now that we have isolated an important find, that through over 3000 games puts us ahead of the coin flip by about 2% or a vig eater if you will, what is next?

It would make sense to me is to now look at the game expectations? Do lower totals rend to stay UNDER? Do they go over? It is time for us to handicap the total, much the same as we did to discover division games were out target.

TOTAL                     TOTAL RESULT   O/U                  WIN RATE  O/U

=40                              843-987-35                                   .461**

Games expected to play under are over-adjusted, but from 40 up, they are under-adjusted. Suddenly we are in a large pocket of profit, with a base of over 1800 games. 

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Our last step is the best step. A team is at their most comfortable playing on 6 days rest, that is the routine they follow 80%+ of the time. We complete our look by only looking at a host on 6 days rest, and out final situation reads as the following SDQL:

Play on the under in a regular season division game when the total is 40 or more, and the home team is on regular 6 days rest:

division = o:division and playoffs = 0 and H and total >= 40 and rest = 6SU:662-507-2 (2.07, 56.6%) Teaser RecordsATS:545-592-34 (-0.28, 47.9%)  avg line: -2.3+6:  790-361-20 (68.6%)  -6:  328-823-20 (28.5%)  +10:  915-230-26 (79.9%)  -10:  232-919-20 (20.2%)  O/U:498-652-21 (-0.90, 43.3%)  avg total: 44.

We now have a sample size of close to 1300 games, and a win rate of 56.7%. (that is a z-score of 4.5, which is absolutely off the charts for 1300 games)!

This situation over the last 10 years has won in 9 of the 10, where recent results are even better at 58.8%

division = o:division and playoffs = 0 and H and total >= 40 and rest = 6 and season > 2008SU:235-193-2 (1.43, 54.9%) Teaser RecordsATS:208-215-7 (-0.83, 49.2%)  avg line: -2.3+6:  289-136-5 (68.0%)  -6:  112-309-9 (26.6%)  +10:  333-88-9 (79.1%)  -10:  76-347-7 (18.0%)  O/U:174-248-8 (-1.67, 41.2%) 

This week the situation is active in the New Orleans v Atlanta game: UNDER would be the call.

This game is based on an incredible situation that brings 2 teams together that both fit a similar situation, one as the home team, one as the road team. Auburn fits a situation that is 35-4-4 to the under, and LSU fits a very similar situation as the road team, which is 37-10-4 to the under. Combined these merging situations have gone 72-14-8 to the under. Make the play on the under.

he Seattle Seahawks team from 2013 that culminated in a 43-8 blowout win over Denver, had many thinking dynasty. The team was young, had an emerging QB in Russell Wilson, and a dominant RB. Despite all the predictions, Seattle has not won since. Once considered one of the best NFL defenses of all time, has been eroding since, and with 5 Pro Bowlers all gone now, expect a further erosion. here are the Seattle points per game allowed starting with the 2013 Super Bowl winning team:

2013    14.3

2014    16.9

2015    17.6

2016    18.6

2017    20.8

*******************************************************

It is very clear, the erosion has been occurring ever since, and now with just about all those Pro Bowl players, the defense is on course to be bottom third in the NFL. Denver was led by poor QB play last season, which resulted in their first losing record since 2010. They brought in Case Keenum, who had a breakout season in Minnesota a year ago. he still has a pair of Pro Bowl quality receivers in Thomas and Sanders who should benefit with him at QB. Denver is going to struggle with the loss of Aqib Talib, a top 3 cover corner. There is also the altitude in Denver to deal with. Players early in the season are not in as good of game shape as they are 4 games into the season. Denver has been posted as a home favorite 8 times vs NFC opponents in week's 1-3 (NFC teams play here just once every 8 years), and are 8-0 to the over in those games. Denver overall is 17-4-1 to the over, in week's 1-3, providing the game is not against a division opponent. (those teams play here every year). Seattle hasn't been here in 8 years, and pretty much the entire roster is different. make the play on the over.

The Cleveland Browns have won just 1 game over the past 2 seasons, and optimism is high this year, as they have added some offensive weapons to the fold. I certainly think the offense will be better, but in game 1, I wouldn't be as optimistic. The potential productive core of this offense has had very little time together. Pittsburgh (as of now), will make die without Le'Veon Bell a holdout. The Steeleers have been an under team for the last 3 years at 17-30-1 O/U, and 6-11-1 O/U in the division, and over the years, Pitt is 30-52-2 O/U to a total of better than 40 within the division, including 8-23-2 O/U lately to a total over 44, inside the division. It is a division that has seen 6 yrs pass without division games totaled higher than 40 finish with the bulk of them over. Pittsburgh's last 60 division games have seen just 12/60 (20%) score 47+ points, while Cleveland has seen 47/58 fail to score 47+. (19%). Think this line is off, and getting this out early, as I expect to see it fall. Make the play on the under.

Central Michigan went to Kentucky last week, and suffered a 35-20 loss. They managed to get the cover, but not much else. The Wildcats played an awful game, turning the ball over 4 times, forcing 0. They were lucky to win as a team making 4 turnovers, to their opponent's 0, have been 34-273 SU in NCAAF. Additionally, C. Michigan scored on a fumble return for a TD, so the offense with 4 extra possessions, put up 13. Kansas has not won more than 3 games in any season over the last 8 years. Their last win by more than 3 points vs an FBS opponent came all the way back to November 8th, 2014. They proceeded to lose at home to Nicholls St. in their opener, and the offense was dead, going back to last year's starting QB, Bender, is not the answer. I honestly don't know where the points are coming from here, neither team has a trustworthy proven QB. Make the play on the under.

Hawaii had some question marks at QB entering the 2018 season, but those may have been answered quickly. QB Cole McDonald led a high powered run and shoot offense to perfection vs Colorado St. in a 43-34 upset shootout. The teams combined for 1270 total yards. McDonald was surprisingly good throwing for 418 yards, and 3 TD's, while running for 96 more and a pair of scores. Coach Nick Rolovich promised to bring in the run and shoot, and McDonald has the look of so many outstanding run and shoot QB's that have led high octane offenses. Navy has to replace 7 defenders from a year ago, and additionally has Malcolm Perry, called by 21 year Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo, the most dynamic QB he has ever coached. he will start, despite QB Zack Abey coming off a season of running for 1,413 yards (2nd best in Navy history). Hawaii showed a lot of holes on defense in their opener, allowing over 600 yards, so I am expecting a shootout here, with both offenses far ahead of the defenses. Navy has a history of allowing a lot of points to a team that went for 400+ on the air in their last contest, allowing 37.7ppg when facing them. The last 5 times Navy has been a double-digit road favorite, they have gone for 40+, and have averaged 38.2ppg as a 10+ point road favorite in all games. make the play on the over.

The Wyoming Cowboys will have to experience life without QB Josh Allen, who was a first round pick in the NFL draft. Those are shoes that simply won't be filled anytime soon. Despite having a first-round NFL caliber QB, the Cowboys managed just 23.5 points per game last year, and there is a pretty good chance they will erode considerably from that pedestrian number. Wyoming had been looking forward to the return of RBs Trey Woods and junior Kellen, but Woods was declared ineligible, and the tandem fell shy of 1,000 yards last season. The good news is that eight starters return from a stingy defense that allowed 17.5 ppg, and forced a nation's best 38 turnovers. The Aggies ended the nation's longest Bowl drought at 57 years, and won their Bowl game to cap it off. It was their last season in the Sun Belt, as they become an FBS Independent. The offense will be led by Senior QB Nick Jeanty, who has five career starts and has passed for 1,028 yards with six TDs and six interceptions in 14 games. They bring back seven starters, along with Frank Spaziani, a former head coach at Boston College. He's made a huge difference, turning one of the nation's worst defenses in '16, into one that forced 27 turnovers, and saw the pathetic 11 sacks in '16 rise to 43 last year. Both of these teams will struggle offensively, but on defense they should both excel, so play this one to finish UNDER the total.

The Colorado St. Rams lost a strong QB from a year ago, but I think the offense is in good hands with K.J. Carta-Samuels coming over from Washington as a grad transfer. Their #1 receiver has departed but Olabisi Johnson, averaged 10.5 per target. The Rams passing attack has also added Tennessee transfer, Preston Williams, so I don`t think this offense is going to starve. Hawaii WR John Ursua, went down midway through last season and what was a pretty decent offense went in the tank. Ursua is healthy and is a difference maker. Colorado St. has a very suspect secondary, and are not all that good up front as well, and Hawaii should have success moving the chains. I think both these teams will have success moving the chains, and look for this game to play over the total.