Sports Picks & Predictions

This game will be determined in large part on the weather. The game time temperature will be around 5 degrees, with a forecast high of 10. The wins will be gusting upward to 35 MPH, and the wind chill will be -20 or lower at times. This will likely be a top 10 worst weather game in NFL history in terms of wind and cold that both alter scoring negatively. Make the play on the under.

Air Force will take on Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl, played in Fort Worth, TX. This isn't a typical day in Fort Worth as the temperatures will start out in the 40s, but are projected to fall to 18 by 4PM. Winds will be gusting up to 40 MPH, with wind chills at or below zero. The Air Force run defense has allowed fewer than 200 rushing yards combined in their last 4 games. This game is going under the total.

This game fits a total situation that is 36-13 to the under in Bowl games. Make the play under the total.

The Atlanta Falcons are taking a look at rookie QB Desmond Ridder. Ridder will get the start, and I would expect the Atlanta offense to struggle, throw safe passes, and do a lot of running. New Orleans is getting completely healthy on defense, and I expect them to play more up to expectations. The NFC South has a long-term history of low scoring division games as 54.7% of them have played under. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a situation that is 77-46 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits in a rather strong 106-61 ATS situation, and the play is under the total.

This game is from my best total situation and the play is on the under.

This game is from my strongest college football total system and the play is on the under.

The Egg Bowl has historically been a lower scoring game than anticipated as these teams have played 11-3-2 ATS to the under in the last 16, as well as 7-1-1 ATS to the under in the last 9 meetings. This game also applies to a long term under situation, that is based on part on a team coming off an extraordinary rushing game. That situation is 541-360-28 to the under. Make the play under the total.

Dallas is active in a situation that is 38-7 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

This game has the lowest posted total so far of this season. It is rare to see a college football game with a total this low. The games always look like they will be 13-10, or 17-13, etc. The fact is when a college football game has a posted total of fewer than 35 points, the games have played over the total to a 19-3 ATS mark, in favor of over the total. I'll play this one over the total.

This game fits my top long-term total situation which is 616-367-20 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.

The Indianapolis Colts fired head coach Frank Reich after the Colts generated just 121 total yards on 51 plays. It was the lowest yards per play generated by any team in the NFL this year. The Colts offense has generated just 9.7ppg in the last 3. New Head Coach Jeff Saturday who will become the first NFL head coach ever that has never coached at the pro or college level. Worse than that he hasn't been with the Colts all season. The Colts are left with a staff where no coach has ever called plays, so a bad offense may be worse. Defensively the Colts allowed New England 26 points, but the Pat's scored a defensive TD, and also scored after a blocked punt game New England a short field TD. New England generated just 203 total yards, so the 26 points was very misleading. Vegas is averaging 10ppg in their last 2 games on an average of 252 total yards per game, and has struggled offensively themselves. Derek Carr has numbers well short of last season, and the Colts can defend very well. I don't see a lot of points being scored in this game, and the Raiders are going to have to score big to get this over, and I don't see it in this match up. Make the play under the total.

This game fits my top total situation which is 613-361-19 ATS. Make the play under the total.

This is an interesting match up. I think there is considerable value here. It starts with the fact that the defensive line coach for Troy is Eric McDaniel. He was a defensive coach at Army prior to coming to Troy, and went up against the triple-option every day, and certainly knows how to stop it. Shiel Wood is the defensive coordinator at Troy. He was the defensive coordinator at Army prior to coming to Troy, and coached at Georgia Tech, and Wofford as well (both option offenses). The Troy defensive coaches have a lot of experience coaching against the triple-option. Troy is a very good defense, and allows just 3.3 yards per carry against them, but the offense is lacking a running game, which is the Army's weakness, as they are better against the pass. Army generated just 7 points and ran 35 times last week vs Air Force for just 78 yards, a team that also runs the option and can defend it. Troy has scored just 16.6ppg in their last 3, and I think both teams are going to be limited in this game. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 137-91 ATS and the play is on the over.

The Seattle Seahawks after trading Russell Wilson, were supposed to be in a steep rebuild. That was until Geno Smith took charge of the offense, and has made this Seattle team a bonafide playoff contender. Seattle is 5-3 on the season and Smith has been spectacular. He enters this game with 19 TD passes to just 4 INTs with a passer rating of 103.2. Seattle is averaging 26.2ppg. Arizona is a disappointing 3-5. The Cardinal's defense is allowing 6 yards per play so the Seattle offense should be putting up a lot of points. The Seattle defense is allowing almost 6 yards per play, and Arizona should have no trouble moving the chains. The last 5 seasons has seen a team that is playing to a total of 49.5 or higher and is off a home win of 10 points or more that wins 60-75% of its games has played over the total to a 26-7 ATS mark. Make the play over the total.

This game fits my 2nd strongest total situation that has been 238-157 ATS. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a total situation that is 84-38 ATS and the play is over the total.

The New England Patriots seem to get into a mud sling every week, with sloppy play on both sides. Through 8 games the Patriot's games have seen 32 turnovers, 16 by each side. Indianapolis came into this season thinking they could hand off to Johnathon Taylor and solve their offensive issues. Taylor through 8 games has not topped 80 yards in any of them. Indianapolis has played 7 of their 8 games under the total, with no team in those games topping 24. The Colts have scored more thn 20 points just 1 time all season. This game fits a situatiaon that is 139-94 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game will be played in horrible conditions with a cold rain and winds gusting up to 60 MPH. Illinois is allowing 8.9ppg as it is, and can just stack the box against the run all game. Make the play on the UNDER

This game is a weather play with high winds and rain, and a New Mexico offense that is already severely handicapped. Make the play on the under.

This game fits my best NCAAF total situations which is 601-354-16 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits my best NCAAF total situations which is 601-354-16 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a very strong 121-67-4 ATS situation The play is on the over.

My NBA totals have been as good as anyone over the last 15 years. This game fits a situation that is 121-67-4 ATS. The play is on the over.

This game fits a toatl situation that is 106-67 ATS. The play is on the over.

Atlanta is a surprising 3-3 on the season, while Cincinnati is a disappointing 3-3. This is a good match up for both offenses. The Falcons are limiting the number of passes that Marcus Mariota throws as he has not thrown more than 20 times in any game this season. The Falcons are running the ball as well as any team with 150+ yards in 5 of their 6 contests. The Bengals have become vulnerable to the running game when D.J. Reader went down with an injury (5.6 yards a carry). Burrow led Cincinnati to 30 points last week vs New Orleans and the Falcons are dead last in the league getting pressure. This game also fits a situation that is 87-41 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The Detroit Lions games have been exciting to watch. Their games have averaged 62ppg. Dak Prescott will make his return at QB for Dallas and he obviously has a favorable match up. The Cowboy's throw the ball a lot with Prescott so things will certainly open up against the soft Detroit pass defense. If for some reason Prescott isn't completely healthy and clicking, the Lions run defense is the worst in the league. Dallas is one of the top teams in getting pressure, but Goff has been protected by a strong offensive line that ranks 3rd in allowing the least pressure. The game sets up as another high scoring affair for the Lions, who also fit in a situation that is 54-18 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

This game fits one of my strongest total situations that is 226-118 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 38-9 ATS and the play is on the under.

This is strictly a weather play. The weather today in Palo Alto, CA calls for showers, but more importantly sustained winds of 25 MPH with gusts in the 30s. Both teams rely on the passing game which will be slowed by the windy conditions. Make the play on the under.

Both of these teams average over 40 points per game, so that certainly looks like the over is a good take. However, I think the fact that both these teams are coming off their bye, and 13 days to prepare that changes things, as the defenses have had a lot of time to prepare. Games with both teams coming off a bye with a total of 63 or more points with the home team favored are 3-13-1 O/U. They have failed to go over the total by an average of 11.88ppg. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 69-23-5 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 69-23-5 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 69-23-5 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 107-56 ATS. The play is under the total.

This game fits a total situation hat is 77-36 ATS and the play is on the under.

This total caps out at 60.5 and a situation that is 77-41 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game fits my strongest situation in any sport which is 501-260-16 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This is a weather play with winds enough to limit the passing game. The play is on the under.

Kent St. heads to Miami for a conference game with both teams off to a 2-3 start. Kent St. has played a strong schedule facing Washington, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Kent St. scored 20 on Washington and 22 on Georgia. The offense scored just 31 points last game, but that is very misleading as the Golden Flashes put up 737 yards of offense. Miami, O. is going to score in this game as the Kent St. defense is not that good. This game fits a situation that is 81-48 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

This game is from my all-time best situation for totals and is now 496-254-16 ATS. Make the play on the under.

I'm not sure what has happened in Colorado in terms of football. Colorado St. and Colorado are a combined 0-9 and both have been out-scored by over 30ppg. Colorado St. has seen the top 2 receivers leave the team, and now QB Clay Millen is likely out as well. The Colorado St. offensive line is surrendering 6 sacks per game, and now have an inexperienced QB for this one. Nevada has an even worse offense at 4.1 yards per play on the season, which is almost 2 yards worse than the average of the defenses they have faced. Colorado St. despite allowing 41 points per game has actually been even at the line of scrimmage. I don't see a lot of points in this one and will make the play on the under.

The New England Patriots took a blow when Mac Jones went down with a shoulder injury. I think back to last year when Bill Belichick took his team to Buffalo and played the game in high winds. His game plan was to run the ball on every down, and the Pats ended up throwing 3 passes in the game for an upset win in Buffalo. Maybe the strategy won't be as extreme here, but he knows he is facing a future HOF QB in Aaron Rodgers, and he is likely going to take the air out of the ball and run often. Green Bay is considered an offensive power with Rodgers but with no true go to guy the Packers offense has struggled to 16ppg. I see a defensive struggle in this one and will make the play under the total.

This game fits one of my strongest NFL total situations. This game applies to a total situation that is 68-16 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

Georgia Tech is 1-3 and has of yet beaten an FBS team where they are 0-3. The offense in their 3 games vs FBS opponents is scoring an average of 6.7ppg. It is unlikely they find answers against this Pitt teams that averages out better defensively than the 3 opponents Georgia Tech has played. That would mean Pitt would have to do some heavy lifting on offense, but Tech is an above average defense that should keep Pitt from rolling up a big score. Throw in a situation that is 77-45 ATS to the under and this is a rather strong play. Make the play on the under.

This game comes from my strongest totals situation. Make the play on the under.

Both Denver and San Francisco have played 2 games under the total. They have both showed some strong defense and at the same time neither offense has looked very impressive. Their games have combined to average about 40 total points. This game features Denver at home and early in the season. Looking at all Denver home games through week3 the over covers 61.1% of all games. I think a good part of that is defenses are in full game shape early in the season and the high altitude makes that worse. I expect a lot more offense in this one. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a situation that is 172-117 ATS to the under, and I like the fact that both teams have their season on the line which usually means intense battles at the line of scrimmage. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a total situation that is 52-13 ATS and the play is on the over.

My ultimate total situation in NCAAF I bet blindly, because it is that strong. It is 580-318-19 ATS in all games, but even stronger when there is not an FCS team involved. It moves to 506-241-2 ATS! Make the play on the UNDER.

The Minnesota Vikings shocked the Green Bay Packers last week holding them to 7 points. They generated 23 points in that game, but generated close to 400 yards of offensive, indicative of more points. Philadelphia was in a shootout with the Lions where they survived 38-35. I think we are heading for another shootout here. The Vikings faced a team down 3 offensive linemen, and their 3 top receivers from a year ago. It won`t be so easy this week. Especially with a Monday Night week 2 situation that is 37-9 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over in this one.

Last week the Detroit Lions put up 35 points on the Philadelphia Eagles. It wasn't enough to win as they allowed 38, and the game saw 850 total yards. Washington also over-achieved their expected offense, and under-performed on defense. We have a pair of teams here that are heading for another 50+ point combined score. Bigger than all that is a huge 113-53 ATS total situation that has gone decisively to the over. Make the play over the total.

I think these teams both have weapons but the Dolphins defense is going to be one of the top in the league. They were impressive last week allowing New England just 271 total yards, 7 points, and 3 turnovers. Baltimore allowed just 9 points to the Jets. Many will look at the 295 yards passing and say the Ravens are in trouble, but those yards took 59 pass attempts to create, or just 5 ypa, which is well below average. The Jets managed just 9 points. This game is setting up to be a lot more defensive than the total is suggesting, and it is supported by a 138-71 ATS situation to the under. Make the play under the total.

It has been a mixed bag so far for San Diego St. and Utah. They will each take the field at 1-1 so this becomes a crucial game for both teams. San Diego St. has won 10 or more games in 5 of the last 7 years. This has been a defense first team since the start of the 2014 season as the Aztecs are 63-37-3 ATS to the under in their last 113 games.They have allowed fewer than 20ppg over the period. They have faced 12 Pac-12 opponents holding them to a combined 25ppg. Based on the fact that Utah is a 3 TD favorite the under has my interest here. San Diego St. has been a double-digit dog 3 times vs Pac-12 teams and all the games went under the total. They are also in a great historic spot for a low scoring game, as several situations point that way including a 32-3-6 ATS situation on the under.Make the play on the under in this one.

UL Lafayette has opened the season at 2-0. They have faced some soft competition thus far. One thing they have done is not turn the ball over. The Ragin Cajuns own a 5-0 turnover advantage in their first 2 games. Rice was destroyed as expected by USC and then destroyed McNeese St. as expected. That doesn't offer much in the way this game will be played. History has a lot more to say as multiple situations favor a low scoring game led by a 32-3-6 ATS situation playing on the under. Make the play on the under.

There are not a lot of NCAAF totals that get posted at 40 or fewer points. This game is one of them, and rightfully so, and I think it is still significantly high. Iowa has an offense that is significantly below average, while New Mexico has defended quite well. Iowa has a defense that could very well shutout the Lobos, while the Iowa offense is extremely bad. I could easily see the total points here coming in the high 20s, to low 30s. There is historical support as well as this game fits an under situation that is 77-48 ATS. Make the play on the under.

Georgia Southern has run the triple option for many years, but coach Clay Helton has changed that. The Eagles have completely changed the offense from the slow methodical and almost exclusive running game, to a wide open spread the field fast paced passing attack. They are snapping the ball over 80 times a game and has averaged 51 passing attempts per contest. They used that offense to spring a huge upset at Nebraska 45-42. The Eagles put up 666 total yards vs the P5 Nebraska team. UAB is a solid defensive team, but Georgia Southern is going to score some points here as a double-digit dog, and UAB will be moving the ball against a very pedestrian defense. I don't think the public or the odds makers have caught up to this extreme change yet. Make the play on the over.

Tulane and Kansas St. come into this game at 2-0, so the winner will emerge 3-0 and feeling pretty good. Both these teams have faced offenses that are not very challenging, and through 2 games each, in total 4 games they have combined to allow just 22 total points. Both offenses are led by the run as they have combined for 171 runs vs just 92 passes. I think the clock will be moving as each tries to take control with the running game. This game fits a lot of situations that are strong indicators of a low scoring game, one of which is 32-3-6 ATS to the under. I favor a low scoring game here and will make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 50-12-1 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

This game fits an opening week total situation that is 47-19 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

A game with a line of -30 or more points and a total of fewer than 50 points have played 82-38-1 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over.

I have a lot of betting systems, or what I prefer to call situations. I use most of them to guide me to look at specific qualifying games. There are a chosen few that I use because the system is long-term and has ridiculously strong results. This game qualifies as one such game. This particular situation is 80-37-2 ATS to the OVER, and if it is prior to week 9 of the season it is a ridiculous 70-25-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play on the OVER.

I have a lot of betting systems, or what I prefer to call situations. I use most of them to guide me to look at specific qualifying games. There are a chosen few that I use because the system is long-term and has ridiculously strong results. This game qualifies as one such game. This particular situation is 80-37-2 ATS to the OVER, and if it is prior to week 9 of the season it is a ridiculous 70-25-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play on the OVER.

I have a lot of betting systems, or what I prefer to call situations. I use most of them to guide me to look at specific qualifying games. There are a chosen few that I use because the system is long-term and has ridiculously strong results. This game qualifies as one such game. This particular situation is 80-37-2 ATS to the OVER, and if it is prior to week 9 of the season it is a ridiculous 70-25-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play on the OVER.

Oklahoma St. will begin a new era as they open their 2022 season vs Central Michigan. Spencer Sanders is an improving duel threat QB, but his offensive line took a hit, as did the running back situation. It won't be as easy this year. The one thing that happened last year is the rebranding of the Oklahoma St. philosophy. They won games on defense. The receivers are young and talented, but I think the offense will be better as the season goes on. The Oklahoma St. defense is going to be strong up front, but has some question marks in the secondary. Central Michigan QB Daniel Richardson lost his top 2 receivers from a year ago. Lew Nichols will be asked to carry the load as he had 2,186 total yards (1,848 on the ground) and 18 TDs a year ago. I think he will get a heavy load but the Cowboy's excel up front. I think the clock will be moving quickly here, and I like the under.

The Yankees fit into a long term situation on the total for this game. A road team that has allowed th opponent to score 4 or fewer runs in each of their last 4 games, and their opponent is off of a 1 run win, are 255-334-28 O/U since the start of the 2011 season. That is 56.3% to the under with a huge sample size of over 600 games! Make the play on the under.

NBA Top Total Play · Under   [509] Boston Celtics vs. [510] Miami Heat   196   -110

 Mr. East   Sun May 29th, 2022 8:30 pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided
Expert Preview: MREAST NBA SUNDAY 5/29 PLAY OF THE DAY $25
Expert Analysis: The NBA Eastern Conference Finals all comes down to a game 7 in Miami. These teams have traded blows throughout the series, and expect another physically hotly contested game. The NBA has left behind a blueprint of game 7 totals, and just how differently they tend to play out in contrast to the first 6 games. Game 7 is on an island with its own results, and let`s take a walk through history. Each round matters as the level of competition become more balanced with each passing round. If you look at games played in the Conference Finals series, or NBA Championship Series over the last 20 years or so, there have been 10 games 7`s which isn`t a very large sample size, but it is indicative of how different a game 7 is. The odds makers realize this and it can be seen in the posted total. The 10 series in rounds 3 and 4 that have seen a game 7 show a stark contrast from game 1 vs game 7. The average game 1 total has been 199.7 and the game 7 total has been 191.8 or -7.9ppg fewer than game 1. Looking at this year, the game 1 total was 205 and the game 7 total is currently posted at 196 at Bovada (as of this writing) or an adjustment game 1 to game 7 of -9 points. So we see a -1.1 point difference from historical totals to current totals. This is a public syndrome, that has been made aware of the game 7 totals, and has bet the total down. It is much in the same way as the Army/Navy Football game that has been played for over a decade regardless of line value as the public goes under knowing the details, but the odds makers' adjustment is never enough. The history show NBA playoff game 7`s are 1-9 O/U in rounds 3 and 4. Are the adjustments enough? The 10 games played showed an average total posted of 191.8 with the average game score at 175.9! That is a difference of 15.9ppg. No team has ever scored more than 101 points in these games. Then the question is, scoring is way up in the NBA over the last 5 years or so, isn`t a total set below 200 way too low? My answer would be since 2016 there have been 4 games and the totals in those 4 games averaged 207.8 while the actual game score averaged just 181.2 or a difference of 26.6ppg. The last 4 which have occurred in the high-scoring era of the NBA have all gone under by 26.6ppg, so over a small sample size, it actually shows that things change dramatically in game 7, and are not compensated enough. I will make the play under the total.

Sunday, May 15th, 2022

NBA  Top Total Play · Under   [523] Milwaukee Bucks vs. [524] Boston Celtics 206.5  -110

 Mr. East   Sun May 15th, 2022 3:30 pm EDT   Win/Loss Undecided
Expert Preview: MREAST NBA SUNDAY 5/15 PLAY OF THE DAY
Expert Analysis: The Bucks and the Celtics have played a very physical series. Giannis has been immense with 3 straight 40-point games, and Jason Tatum was his equal in game 6. I think the fact that Giannis is generating so much of the offense, a lot of Milwaukee players are having a difficult time getting into the flow. Boston will be home for game 7 due to a 5 deep tiebreaker for the #2 seed, as these teams finished dead even in the regular season. Game 7 has typically been a different animal altogether. Everything is on the line, and defense is usually king. Since the start of the 2003 season, from round 2 forward the under is 23-8 and 2 of the 8 losses were due to overtime. If the total is posted at less than 211, the game 7 results from the 2nd round on are 19-5 to the under, with the average cover by 11ppg. Make the play on the under.

The Buffalo Bills are an alluring team after last week. Buffalo scored on every drive except a kneel down on their last possession. They played a perfect game with 7 straight Td drives, no punts, no turnovers. So they immediately become a sexy pick. The Chiefs may have something to say about that. Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City offense can score in bunches and quickly, and while the offense seems to be the talking point, the defense has better and healthier players, and looks completely different than it did in the beginning of the season. They have become a bonafide top 10 defense. While the Bills offense was perfect last week, the defense has been the strength of this team, and while it looks like both offenses are clicking right now, I think the defenses are going to have more to say than the offenses. This total is suggesting a shootout, and I don't think this game gets there. It fits a playoff total situation that is 39-17 ATS, and I will play under the total.

This game is based on a very strong total situation which is 226-128 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game is based on a very strong total situation which is 226-128 ATS. The play is on the under.

This game is based on a very strong total situation which is 226-128 ATS. The play is on the under.

The Brooklyn Nets were sailing along in good shape in the NBA Eastern Conference. The elite team has been crippled with injuries, and will be without Kevin Durant in the foreseeable future. Their last 13 games has seen both teams score 102 points or more, so the over seems like the way to go, but historically speaking that is not the case. Washington has scored 110 or more points in 10 of their last 11, further enhancing the betting public's view on the over. That has led to a total that is pumped and primed to have the opposite outcome. This game fits a situation that is 70-31 ATS to the under, and is in part based on 2 teams with high scoring offenses. Make the play on the under.

This game is purely situational. It fits a total situation that is 33-7 ATS in bowl games. Make the play on the under.

This game is based on a very strong 45-11 ATS Bowl total situation. The play is on the over.

Right now I am staying about 15 minutes from the Myrtle Beach Bowl. It was 35 degrees this morning, and the high is projected to be in the upper 40s. It was 78 here 2 days ago. The key factor will be the wind blowing steady ar 16 MPH and gusting to 25. This is going to turn into more of a clock chewing running game, and the kicking game will be impacted as well. I'm going under the total.

This pick is strictly system based. I don't typically play situations blindly unless they are very strong. This one is 87-38 ATS and the play is on the UNDER.

LA Lafayette has had a great run this season at 12-1, and look to close out the season with 13 wins, and have a quasi-home game to do it in. The Ragin Cajuns have been led by a defense that allows just 18.3ppg and in 2 big games vs Liberty and Appalachian St. they allowed 14, and 16 respectively. The defense has grown as the season has moved forward and LA Lafayette has allowed 16ppg over their last 6. Marshall was no match for the powerful offense of W. Kentucky but has otherwise held up very well allowing 15.5ppg in their 4 previous to W. Kentucky. Marshall was slowed by the better teams on its schedule having gone just 2-5 on the season, and a dead heat in total yards. LA Lafayette was 10-3 to the under this season, and I have an 85-44 ATS under situation for this game that is also 22-9 ATS in Bowl games, to the under. Make the play on the under.

Bahamas Bowl - Thomas Robinson Stadium - Nassau,

The Bowl season gets underway when Toledo (7-5) takes on Middle Tennessee St. (6-6). Middle Tennessee sure has some issues at QB as they are down to their 4th string QB as Chase Cunningham, Alec Ogden, and Bailey Hockman are all declared out. This is going to be a game decided by who can win the battle between the potent Toledo running game, and a Middle Tennessee run stop unit that did not allow 100 yard rusher in their last 7 games. Wind will be at least a slight factor as they are projected at 16 MPH with higher gusts, just enough to have some impact. There is one area of this game that is far under the radar. These teams have combined this season for 16 special teams or defensive touchdowns. That amounts to 112 points or 56 per team. Both teams finished plus double-digits in turnover margin, so there is a lot of scoring by these teams that was unrelated to the offense and I think the total here is not where it should be. Both teams are going to want to run the ball which should help to shorten the game as well. I like the under in this one.

Tuesday December 14th, 2021

  Top Total Play · Over   [605] Furman Paladins vs. [606] North Carolina Tar Heels
    Tue Dec 14th, 2021 7:00pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided

This game is based on one of my favorite and most reliable total situations. If you play on the under when a team enters the game off a road favorite loss of 10 points or more from game 4 on they are 175-110-6 ATS to the under. If their opponent is off a loss the under is 37-6-1 ATS to the under, including 28-3 ATS in the last 31 occurrences. Make the play on the under.

This game makes little sense. Both teams will be starting back up QB's and the Lions from week 2 on have yet to score 20 points in a game. Tim Boyle threw for 77 yards last week and 2 INT's, and now the Bears go with back up Andy Dalton (who is better than Fields by the way). The Bears defense is bad enough for even Boyle and the inept Lions to do something, and Dalton is an upgrade for the Bears offense. This game seems so obvious it should stay under the total, and I have seen games like this all too often where weird things happen and the expected quickly goes sideways. I like the over in this one.

Aaron Rodgers at QB tends to say offense, but the Packer offense has been sputtering all season. They rank in the bottom third of the league. The last 5 games has the Green Bay offense averaging just 19.2ppg. Meanwhile the Packers who have been labeled an offensive team during the Rodgers era have become one of the top defenses in the league. Green Bay has held its last 5 opponents to 11.6ppg.The Packers have in fact played 7 straight games to the under. No opponent in that stretch has scored more than 22 points against them. The Packers have not topped the 27 point mark in any of the 7 games either, and collectively the 7 Packer games have averaged just 35 total points. Minnesota has played 5 of their last 7 to the under holding 5 opponents to 20 or fewer points. The Packers are 4-1 to the under in its last 5 played in Minnesota with the average total score being fewer than 41 points. This game also fits a situation that is 50-15 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

When you think of Ole Miss you immediately think of high scoring games. They have played to lofty totals all season, but their games have not been as explosive as the odds-makers have suggested. Ole Miss has actually played 5 straight games to the under. The total for this one is running in the mid 60s and it just doesn't fit what these teams have done on the season. Vanderbilt doesn't belong in the SEC, which is part of the reason, but the Commodores have allowed 45 points or less in SEC games this season, and have allowed 40 on average. The issue for them is can they score? Vanderbilt is averaging just 10ppg in their 6 conference tilts this season, so their SEC games have averaged just 50ppg, and 4 of their last 5 have played under the total. Ole Miss has scored 31 or fewer points in 5 of their 6 SEC games which have averaged 61.7ppg, and 5 straight have played under the total. The total suggests a51-14 final score, while combined these teams average 56.1ppg in SEC games. If you look at Ole Miss and their outlier 52-51 win vs Arkansas, their SEC games average just 53.4ppg. Vandy lost to Georgia 62-0, otherwise their SEC games have seen 49.8ppg scored. What I am suggesting is it will take another outlier game to push this over the total. Moreover, Ole Miss is off a huge upset of Texas A&M, and are in a letdown spot, and on deck for them is the Egg Bowl rivalry game vs Miss St. I don't them pushing hard in this game. Make the play on the under.

4 PM GAME    YALE @ VERMONT    UNDER 139.5   -110

This is a very good early season match up between a pair of New England schools that have had plenty of success on the basketball floor. These teams match up pretty well, and defense should be the order of the day. They met in 2019 and managed just 125 points scored, and both teams are defending at a high level right now. These teams take care of the ball, so not a lot of easy buckets, and neither is getting to the line all that much. Those things should keep the clock moving, and make this a quick game. Yale has been 48-28 ATS to the under when playing against a team that has a 4 point scoring margin over their opponents on the season. Make the play on the under.

This game features a pair of QB's having good seasons, as well as a pair of defenses that are suffering from a rash of injuries. The Chargers defense has allowed 31.8ppg over their last 4 and the Vikings will have up to as many as 5 key starters that may miss this game. The Chargers are ranked last in the NFL in success rate over their last 4 games. This game fits a situation that has been 87-46 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers saw their games average in the 40s last year. This team has opened up the offense and are one of the top offensive teams in the league averaging 513 yards per game. They should have no trouble reaching or topping those numbers vs Rice, who allowed 620 yards to Texas, and 52 points to UTSA. The Hilltoppers over the last 5 weeks are averaging 43+ points per contest. Rice is averaging 19.3ppg but have been shutout by Texas, and UTSA in its last 7 games, and otherwise has averaged 30ppg in their other 5. Western Kentucky is allowing 29.3ppg on the season, and there is plenty of room for a lot of scoring here. Make the play on the over.

These teams each lost their opener as they each stepped up in class and were exposed on the offensive end of the court. Combined in their first game of the season they scored a grand total of 90 points. That is a far cry from where this total is. Evansville and IUPUI are rebuilding, and are both predicted to be at or near the bottom of their respective conferences this season. IUPUI lost its top 3 scorers from a year ago and placed just 1 player in double-digits in game one. Evansville managed just 43 points vs Cincinnati, and where are the points coming from? Both also were terrible at the free throw line, further reducing scoring potential. The good news is each held down much stronger opponents, as both played much below total point expectations. Make the play on the under.

The Rams are part of the top heavy NFC, where there is currently 5 teams beginning the week with a single loss. The Rams have taken the next step up on offense behind Matthew Stafford as they are averaging just about 30ppg. The Rams will have a huge mismatch in their favor going up against the very weak Texan's secondary. I expect the Rams to surpass their season scoring average of 30ppg in this contest. Houston is down to David Mills at QB and he has yet to win an NFL game. The Houston offense has been bogged down by 10 turnovers in its last 4 games, and 2.5 turnovers per contest is unsustainable, and I expect that number to go down, and the points to go up. The Rams defense has only been about average on the season, and they may not be on the field a lot in the 2nd half of this one, enhancing the Texan's chances of scoring. Make the play on the over in this one.

The Colorado Buffalo's are now the worst offensive team in the nation gaining just an average of 238 yards per game. Colorado has gained fewer than 200 yards a game in their 5 losses on the season. Oregon has been pretty solid on both sides of the ball, and I really doubt that Colorado is going to contribute much here in this game, and almost all the points will have to come from Oregon. Outside of big scoring games vs Stony Brook, and winless Arizona Oregon has scored 24-35 points in every game. I think this number is too high and will make the play on the under.

The Baltimore Ravens are known to like to put the ball on the ground especially with Lamar Jackson at QB. The running game should be met with little resistance, as the Chargers run stop unit is among the worst in the league. The usually reliable Baltimore defense is not up to standard, as it is allowing 6.5 yards per play and close to 400 yards a game. Justin Hebert has taken a very strong rookie season, and elevated it as he is beating last year's numbers to this point of the season. Things haven't gotten much better as they allowed over 500 yards last week to the Colts. This game should see a lot of scoring opportunities, make the play on the over.

The Vanderbilt football program has struggled over many years trying to keep up with the schools in the SEC. They have had little success in doing so and this year they may be worse than the poor teams they have put on the field in many years. This is a team that managed just 3 points against E. Tennessee St., and has been shutout twice on top of that. They have scored 80 points in 6 games on the season. Their offense is generating -2.40 yards per play fewer than what their defense allows. South Carolina is in distress as well. The Gamecocks are averaging just 17.2 points per game vs FBS teams, and the offense has been average, while the defense is 0.5 yards better than the schedule of offenses they have faced. I think South Carolina will be capped at 30 in this game and they have already held 4 teams to 17 points or fewer on the season, and Vanderbilt is below those teams offensively. I look for this game to play under the total.

Washington will once again go with QB Taylor Heinicke. Probably the best testiment to the Washington offensive line was the fact that Heinicke took 3 seconds on average to unload the ball, and did not get sacked a single time. Washington runs the ball at a top 10 rate, but the Saints own the 2nd best run stop unit in the NFL so the heart of the Washington offense is going into a very unfavorable match up. Winston is known for holding the ball too long, and will be with out 2 pieces in his offensive line, most notable starting center Erik McCoy. I like this game to play under the total.

The match up here should provide a lot more scoring opportunities than the posted total might otherwise indicate. The Atlanta offense has allowed less time for Matt Ryan to et rid of the ball, and that has led to running backs featured in the passing game, as Ryan needs to get the ball out quickly. The Falcons target running backs at the 2nd highest rate in the league and the Jets allow the 2nd most receiving yards to running backs in the league. That sets up the Atlanta offense for success in this contest. Jamison Crowder lifted the Jets offense last week in his first game. He was targeted 9 times, and has a favorable match up here vs Atlanta. This game will be played in London under very good scoring conditions. I think these match ups favor a game with more scoring than expected. Make the play over the total.

Seattle had a big halftime lead vs Tennessee last week, and let it slip away in the 2nd half in a 33-30 loss. The Titans went for over 500 yards on the Seahawks. Minnesota despite allowing a considerable amount of points has one of the top run defenses in the league, and they will be able to get pressure on Wilson. Cousin's has 6 starts vs Seattle and 5 of the games have played under, and the Minnesota defense has historically been much better at home, and this will be the home opener for the Vikings. Russell Wilson is 15-7 to the under when playing as a road favorite. I like the under in this one.

Arizona St. has put up some impressive numbers on offense in their two games this season. The problem the numbers have come vs Southern Utah and UNLV. The Sun Devils were on average 40 point favorites in the 2 games. Ironically, BYU was beating a pair of Pac-12 teams. One was Utah a team that is a huge rival, and the Cougars took them down 26-17. It ended a 9 game losing streak to their biggest rival. The Cougars have done just enough on offense to allow a strong defense to do its think holding 2 Pac-12 teams to 16 and 17 points, which is rather impressive. Arizona did combine to score 78 points in the two games, but think about it. They were a -80 point favorite in the two games and didn't even combine to score 80 points. That is a red flag to me, and I think the BYU defense will rise to the occasion again. BYU doesn't have the offense they did a year ago, and I think this is going to be a lower scoring game than indicated. Coach Sitake has always been a defensive minded coach and is now 42-24 to the over at BYU. (30-13 under on grass). Make the play on the under.

The University of Connecticut have parted ways with Randy Edsall, but the results were the same. They were shutout for the 2nd straight time vs an FBS team. The Huskies are among the worst NCAA Football teams of all-time. The Huskies will benefit however this week because Army runs the ball almost every play. That shortens the game but it also will provide cover for the worst part of the Huskie defense which is the passing game. UConn has actually been about average defending the run, and while Army puts up big rushing numbers every game, they have managed just 4.5 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that allows 4.8. They have been below average, and UConn can at least defend the run. The Huskie offense is another story. They can't score and it is likely they score very little here. Over the last 15 years in NCAA Football a team that ran the ball 60 or more times (Army 67), have played to the under in their next game 59% of the time. I think this is a good match up for the UConn defense, and I will make the play on the under.