Sports Picks & Predictions

All of today's selections are based on positive line value, and positive situations. The play in this one is on the under.

All of today's selections are based on positive line value, and positive situations. The play in this one is on the under.

This game applies to a totals situation that is 160-93, and the play is on the under

All of today`s games are based on line value and positive situations. The play on this game is on the under.

All of today`s games are based on line value and positive situations. The play on this game is on the under.

: All of today`s games are based on line value and positive situations. The play on this game is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 726-580 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 72-35 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 48-10 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 49-13 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 725-579 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 104-52, and the play is on the under

This game fits a totals situation which is 142-81, and the play is on the under

All of today's NBA selections are based on line value, and highly positive situations. Play on the under.

This is a weather play, with heavy rain forecast for the game (not the biggest issue), but the rain will be accompanied by winds at 20-25 MPH sustained, with gusts to 46MPH. Play is on the under

Despite the 34-7 outcome in game 1 between these teams this year, a lot happened there early that dictated the rest of the game. Seattle found themselves up 17-0 before the close of the first quarter, so the rest of the game was played accordingly, and not indicative of what to expect here. The Saints are considered a high octane offense, but the fact is, the offense has been in decline for the last 2 years. The 2011 Saints generated a point with every 13.66 yards gained, while that rose last year, and this year it is at 15.44. That is a decrease in efficiency of 13%. The road has been another matter all together, and while they scored 26 last week, it was against the 29th ranked defense in the league. The Saints offense has generated just 15.8ppg in their last 5 road games, but at the same time they have held 12 opponents to 20 or less on the season. The defense ranks 4th in yards allowed per game at just 305 total yards per game, and they went from allowing 32 TD passes a year ago to 20 this year. Seattle has struggled offensively, as they have played pretty much their entire season without both projected starting WR's in Rice, and Harvin. They have run the ball 55% of the time, 2nd most in the league. They have faced a lot of strong defenses with 7 games against the top 7 defenses in the league in yards allowed per game. Those 7 games, which includes New Orleans saw them average just 5.3 yards a play, and run off an average of just an average of 57 plays per game. They simply had too many games where they were limited to 290 yards of total offense a game, often relying on their defense to win games. Those 7 games vs strong defenses, saw their own defense kick it up a notch, allowing just 13.6ppg. New Orleans defense is now better than their offense, on the road, while the perception remains contrary, and it has led to high totals, and low scoring, with each of their last 6 road contests failing to reach the total. there is another factor here, and that will be the weather. Winds at game time are expected to be 20-30 MPH sustained, with gusts as high as 50 MPH. That might put an even greater emphasis on the running game for both sides. make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 226-147, including 3-0 this year, the play is on the under.

THE NFL PLAYOFFS 5 COLDEST GAMES EVER:

The NFL playoffs have a lot of history, and the times where the weather man put a little too much Jack Frost in the air, all have a pretty common bond.

We have seen snow games in New England, the Fog game, a rain soaked Super Bowl with Indy vs Chicago in Miami, and a handful of absolutely beyond bearable cold conditions.

Let's key in on the common bond:

1967 CHAMPIONSHIP DALLAS @ GREEN BAY:

The infamous Ice Bowl played at -13 with crazy wind chills FINAL SCORE: GREEN BAY 21 DALLAS 17

1975 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OAKLAND @ PITTSBURGH:

This game was played in a wind chill of at least -10 degrees, and it was a turnover fest, with 13 turnovers in the game. FINAL SCORE: 16-10 Pittsburgh

1980 AFC SEMI FINAL OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND:

This game was played with a temperature of around 2 degrees with an even colder windchill of -10 or more. FINAL SCORE: 14-12 OAKLAND

1981 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI:

Game temperature -9 with insane wind chills: FINAL SCORE: CINCINNATI 27 SAN DIEGO 7

2007: NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: NY GIANTS @ GREEN BAY:

Game time temperature -1 with insane wind chills FINAL SCORE NY 23 GREEN BAY 20 OT

2014: NFC WILDCARD: SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY:

Game time temperature of -4 and since it is a late afternoon game, by the end of the game the temperature should exceed the record of -13 played in during the ice Bowl going down to -19.

Wind chills expected in the -30+ range

THE COMMON THREAD:

167 points scored in 5 games or 33.4ppg. Total is currently 46.5

If you want to add in a 6th game then consider:

2003-04 TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND:

Game time temperature 4 degrees FINAL SCORE: NE 17 TENN 14

So that is now 6 games and 198 total points or 33ppg scored, and no game over 43 total points and that took overtime.

Make the play on the under.

The New Orleans Saints will travel to Philadelphia to open the playoffs vs the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles were supposed to be the dream team a year ago, but that dream became a nightmare. Out goes Andy Reid, and in comes Chip Kelly. The Eagles started the season looking the same as last year's team as they were 1-3 after 4 weeks. Then the light seemed to come on as the Eagles finished 9-3, including winning 6 of their last 7. The biggest change did not come on offense, it came on defense. The Eagles, outside of their debacle in Minnesota, allowed 22 points or less to everyone else over the last 12 games, and at home they allowed just 100 points in their last 6 games at 16.7ppg. The Saints and Drew Brees are invincible at home, where they scored 23 or more points in every game on their way to a 34ppg average. The road has been a totally different story, where they average just 17.8ppg. That is just about half of what they generate on their home field. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 68-39 including 2-0 so far this year. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a very strong totals situation that is 53-15 since 2000. Make the play on the over.

This game fits into a 173-128 totals situation, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situations based in part on both teams coming into the game off big wins, and it has been 114-72, and the play is on the under in this one

This is a weather play on the under.

The Kansas City Chiefs will not change their playoff seed regardless of the outcome of this game. Coach Andy Reid has been somewhat drifty in how much time his starters will get, but all you have to do is look at his past when he has clinched a playoff spot, and the outcome of the game meant no change in the seeding. This occurred in 2001,2004,2006, and 2010 while coaching Philadelphia. All 4 instances saw Reid sit all his starters or play them for 1 series. San Diego needs Baltimore and Miami to both lose or tie to make the playoffs providing they win. Both Baltimore and Miami play early games, so since this is a 4:25 EST kickoff, the Chargers will know at kickoff, if they are even still alive. If they are not, you may see starters playing a limited role here as well. Looking back at the 4 games Reid coached in this situation, his team scored 15ppg, and gave up 17ppg, and the last 3 saw his team run just an average of 54 plays per game. This is a real game total, and expect a quick low scoring game. Play the under.

This game applies to one of my strongest total situations, one that has gone 16-1 in Bowl games, and the play is on the under.

This game applies to one of my strongest total situations, one that has gone 16-1 in Bowl games, and the play is on the under.

I think when this game was scheduled both these teams were going to be featured as Eastern Title chasers, but injuries, and poor chemistry has devastated both these teams. Chicago lost Derrick Rose again for the season, and Kirk Hinrich (back stiffness), Luol Deng (Achilles) and Jimmy Butler (ankle) all sat out last game. The Nets lost Brook Lopez for the season, and continue to struggle. I think with all the firepower missing from this game, the points will be hard to come by, and this game also fits a situation that is 76-34 to the under. Make the play under the total.

Both these teams are coming into this game off blowout wins, and should be feeling pretty good about themselves. That has led to a history of lower than expected output for the upcoming game. Certain teams in a game where both are off blowout wins, have played to a 80-48 mark to the under. Make the play on the under in this one.

This game will be played in near blizzard conditions, with winds 15-25 MPH sustained, with gusts over 40 MPH. Make the play on the under.

All my week 16 games are system plays, mainly because the systems in week 16 and week 17 have all been extremely strong for years. The play on team in this game is under.

Game conditions warrant a weather play on the under, due to high winds.

This is a wind weather play, and it is on the under.

This is a wind weather play, and it is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 44-9 regarding the total, and the play is on the under.

This game plays on a situation that in part involves a pair of bad teams playing both on 0 rest, and the situation is 56-21, make the play on the over.

This game fits a totals situation which is 70-35 and the play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation which is 36-9 and the play is on the under.

The NFC North has a long history if battles, especially late in the season. These teams tend to play physical and defensive games, especially late in the season when the weather usually turns sour. The last 21 division games here have played 18-3 to the under. Believe it or not, this is the highest December total played in December in this conference since December 23rd 2007, some 19 games ago. Just one of the last 21 December matchups have seen more than 43 points scored in the game, and Sunday Night in Pittsburgh the wind will be gusting to 35 MPH, so the chances of a high scoring game become diminished. Play the under.

This game is a weather under play. The winds will be about 20 MPH gusting to 30-35, with temps in the 20s. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 138-70 on the under including 4-1 this year. Make the play under the total.

This is my favorite college football game of the year. I have watched this game for as long as I can remember. These teams have met 113 times, and have both used the triple option for most of my lifetime, or a variation of it. There was a time period when Army broke away from it, and threw the ball a lot more, and it is one reason the totals in these games began to climb, and they never went back down, as we headed into a higher scoring era of college football, but that has never translated to this game, because they play it differently, and both know the other's playbook, because for the most part, it is their playbook. The period from 1985 saw the totals in this game always posted in the high 30s to the high 40s as a max, the total in this game never hit 50 until 2001. NCAA games began being higher scoring. The average total points scored in an NCAAF game has jumped to 56.7ppg this season. While the scoring was on the rise, as well as the total in this game, when Army became a fulltime option team again, the totals did not go back down. remember I said that this series has played out 113 times? How many of those games do you think saw both teams score a combined 56 points or more? THE ANSWER IS 3 OUT OF 113! I know most of the early years, there was little scoring, but how about since 1985? Just 3 times!...and 2 of the 3 were when Army was throwing the ball 20-30 times a game. The fact is, despite what the numbers say, this game never gets there, or rarely does. The series has played 19-8-1 to the under in the last 28 meetings, but a lot of the earlier years, the total was posted properly, but it no longer is. Since Army has become an exclusive option team again, and the total has been posted in the 50s it just is way off the mark. The last 7 have played to the under to an avg total of over 52. Even in the era where scoring was going up, and Army was passing, the average totals were slightly less. The rising scores in NCAAF do not effect the score changing in this game, yet the odds makers continue to include this unique game into the same realm of expectation. Make the play on the under.

This game fits an 88-49 situation on the total, which is already 3-0 this year, the play is on the under.

This game fits one of my strongest total situations, which is 53-11 the play is on the under

The Chargers suddenly have the 5th best offense in yards per game at 400. The Broncos offense is off the charts this year. Denver`s defense has allowed 30ppg over their last 3, and 26.5ppg for the season, so it is easy to understand why they are 11-2 to the over on the season, and 16-4-1 to the over in their last 21 after scoring 30 or more in their last game. Add in their 41-14-1 mark to the over, after throwing for 250 yards in their last game, and 36-15-1 mark to the over in their last 52 conference games, and we have a lot of evidence the points will be coming easy tonight. Chargers come in at 41-19-4 to the over in their last 64 on the road, and with the thin air in Denver, almost any FG attempt from any distance stands a chance. Play on the over.

Now that the NBA season is around the quarter pole, I have a lot of strong situations that kick in. One applies to this game which is 47-12 and the play is on the under.

Now that the NBA season is around the quarter pole, I have a lot of strong situations that kick in. One applies to this game which is 92-46 and the play is on the under.

Now that the NBA season is around the quarter pole, I have a lot of strong situations that kick in. One applies to this game which is 92-46 and the play is on the under.

There has been much written of Tony Romo's December struggles, but he did win this year against the NY Giants 24-21 in the cold. These are a pair of bad defenses tonight, but sometimes you get an assist from the 12th man, and in tonight' case, that will be a wind from 15-20 MPH, gusting as high as 35 MPH. That will have the wind chill down below zero. That is conducive for a lot of running plays here, and short passes. it will also impact the kicking game, as neither team will be aided by a cross wind, blowing left to right across Soldier Field. While we saw snow yesterday, actually helping the offense in spots, on special teams and slipping defenders, the wind helps no one. This is a weather play on the under.

This game applies to a pair of bad teams situation, when both have 0 rest, and the situation is 64-32, and the play is on the over,

This game applies to a situation that in part plays under when a pair of teams have been playing a lot of overs in recent games, which inflates the total. The situation is 46-7 and the play is on the under, one of my best NBA totals situations.

This game fits one of my strongest total situations, which is 52-14 ATS, and also a live subset which is 35-6 ATS. The play is on the over.

This game fits one of my most reliable and strongest total situations, which is 137-70-2. The play is on the under.

This total is going to drop, winds gusting to 40 MPH and sustained winds of 20-25 MPH are going to inhibit the offenses, play the under.

This game fits a total situation which is 41-8-3 including 15-0-1 this year, play is on the over

This is a weather play on the under

This game fits a total situation which is 41-8-3 including 15-0-1 this year, play is on the over.

This is a weather play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 91-46 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 38-8 the last 46 times it has come up, including 12-0-1 this year, play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation which is 136-70 and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 38-8 the last 46 times it has come up, including 12-0-1 this year, play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that is 38-8 the last 46 times it has come up, including 12-0-1 this year, play is on the over.

This is a wind play on the under, winds will be gusting to 50 MPH in this one, play the under.

My best NCAAF total situation is active for this game. It is 95-45-5 all time, including 7-3 this year. The play is on the under.

My best NCAAF total situation is active for this game. It is 95-45-5 all time, including 7-3 this year. The play is on the under.

This game fits a high scoring profile which is 60-23 ATS, and it is active tonight on the OVER

This matchup is between a pair of teams, that have arguably become the most dysfunctional teams in the NFL, at least for now. QB Mike Glennon has not done anything special for Tampa Bay, but he certainly has been an upgrade to Josh Freeman. Freeman was completing just 45% of his passes at 6.1 yards per attempt and 2 TD`s and 3 INT`s. Glennon is completing 60% at 5.7 yards per attempt, but has found the end-zone 8 times to just 3 picks. Mike James has been better in the backfield than the injured Doug Martin, who was not running nearly as effectively as he was a year ago. The difference is 11ppg in the Buc`s first 4 games, to 20ppg in their last 4. Miami has allowed 20 to each of their last 7 opponents, and have scored 17 or more in every game this season. They should have no trouble getting their tonight vs a Tampa ole defense allowing 30ppg over their last 4. This game fits a smoking hot trend that is non-conference home teams with a lower winning percentage than their opponent, as long as they are not favored by 3 or more. This situation is 36-8-3 the last 49 occurrences, and is currently 12-0-1 this season, and on an incredible 25-1-3 run. This situation plays on the over, which is my selection here, OVER the total

This is a late added play and situational based, play is on the OVER

While I did a complete analysis in the writeup for the total in another game, time precludes me doing the same for all of these, but I have done the analysis, and this game also fits the 94-43 system, that is 6-1 this year so far. The play is on the under.

While I did a complete analysis in the writeup for the total in another game, time precludes me doing the same for all of these, but I have done the analysis, and this game also fits the 92-47 system, that is 9-2 this year so far. The play is on the under

Since 1990 in NCAAF there have been 12 games from game number 9 and on, where a pair of 1 win teams played, and the home team averaged less than 20 points a game. The average points scored in these games was 46.8. There have been 9 games where a road team from game 9 out, both teams 1 win, and the average points scored have been 49.2. I did the same for defense that allow 45 or more for the road team, and 35 or more for the home team, and get 48.8 for the road team, and 51.8 for the home team. This game also fits a total system that is 94-43 including 6-1 this year. The play is on the under.

While I did a complete analysis in the writeup for the total in another game, time precludes me doing the same for all of these, but I have done the analysis, and this game also fits the 94-43 system, that is 6-1 this year so far. The play is on the under

While I did a complete analysis in the write up for the total in another game, time precludes me doing the same for all of these, but I have done the analysis, and this game also fits the 92-47 system, that is 9-2 this year so far. The play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 112-72 and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 148-98, and the play is on the under

This game fits a dynamic and powerful totals situation which is 54-16, and the play is on the under

This game fits a huge total situation which is 36-8, and the play is on the over

This game fits a huge total situation which is 36-8, and the play is on the over.

Penn St. has been the lowest scoring team playing on grass since 1992, where they have a 97-69 record to the under averaging just a total of 47.3ppg. Illinois was piling up good offensive numbers but those numbered have smoothened out against the better defenses in the Big-10. This game fits a situation that has been 93-43 t the under. Play this under the total.

This game features a matchup between a pair of teams that are 0-1. When this situation arises, and there is a home favorite of -2 or more, the under has been 20-4-2. Make the play on the under.

This game features a matchup between a pair of teams that are 0-1. When this situation arises, and there is a home favorite of -2 or more, the under has been 20-4-2. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a lot of total situations I have, and I detailed one in my newsletter this morning, and another which is 91-47-5. The play in this game is on the under.

The 2013-14 NBA season gets underway tonight, and I`m keying in on the LA rivalry. The Lakers will be without Kobe Bryant, and that is going to make this team play more in the half court until he gets back in the lineup. Doc Rivers will coach his first game in LA, and his Boston teams were a defensive first team, and I expect him to instill the same mantra in LA. Rivers was delighted in how both Jordan and Griffin bought into his defensive signature. Season openers where there is a home dog involved, tend to play under the total, as they have been 38-18 to the under since 1989, including 8-3 to the under if it is a division contest. Play this one under the total.

It is going to be a short leash for each of these pitchers tonight. Clay Buchholz was held out until game 4 as he is suffering from shoulder fatigue, and his recent numbers show a different pitcher from earlier in the season. Buchholz in his first 95.1 innings of work allowed 62 hits and 2 HR's. His last 6 starts have been pedestrian as he has worked 29.2 innings allowing 32 hits, and 5 HR's. Lynn opened the season like a Cy Young candidate as he pitched the Cards to a 12-3 record while going 10-1. The ledger shows 92 innings just 73 hits, and 5 HR's. Lynn has since allowed 126 hits in 121 innings, while the HR total has doubled to 10. The Cards are just 9-12 while he is 7-10. Both of these teams are better facing right handed pitching. Boston .283 vs RHP and .265 vs LHP. Boston produces a run every 6.24 at bats vs RHP to just 7.46 vs LHP. St. Louis hit .238 vs LHP, but .280 vs RHP and produced a run every 7.81 at bats vs LHP, to a run every 6.88 at bats vs RHP. Looking at the fact that neither of these pitchers are likely to be around long, based on their recent performances from above, we take a look at how the series has played out so far. The first 3 innings have seen 7 runs scored, the middle 3 has seen 5 scored, and the final 3, where the pens are in the game, 12. These teams are also more effective in X-tra base hits vs RHP so I do see this game producing more runs than expected. Boston has played just 6 games that stayed under the total out of 19 to a total less than 8 on the road vs a RHP. and St. Louis at home vs a RHP to a total of less than 8 vs a good team, better than .550, plays over 56% of the time. Play on the over.

THE EVOLVING WORLD OF THE NFL AND TOTALS:

Professional sports leagues evolve through the years, as we see rule changes, scheme changes, no-huddle fast attack offenses that don't allow the defense to get the right personnel into the game, etc.

It would be fair to say that most of the changes over the past decade have given the offense an extra advantage, and trying to protect QB injuries, has also had a great impact on game scoring. The average total in an NFL game illustrates just what is happening in the sport.

The average total in an NFL game back in 1995 was 40.6 points per contest. That rose ever so slowly over the next decade and a half, reaching 42.8ppg in the 2010 season. Overall, that showed an increase in points from 40.6 to 42.8 or 2.2 points over a 16 year period. That represents a 9.6% increase overall, nothing Earth shattering considering the time span was 16 years, it represented a growth in totals of 0.6% per season, something hardly noticeable year over year.

What has happened since the start of the 2011 season, is hard not to notice. The average total of 42.8ppg in 2010 has soared to 45.5% through 7 weeks of play in 2013. That represents a change of 6.3% in just 2.5 seasons.

Besides the rule changes, what we have seen is a lot of duel threat QB's enter the league, providing more stress for the defenses. beyond being duel threats, a lot of the QB's entering the league are simply of high caliber, so in the end scoring is up.

SO HOW DO WE CASH IN?:

Seems like a lost cause on the surface, simply because the adjustments have apparently already been made....or have they adjusted enough?

When considering a point of attack, the best place to look for an OVER would be in a game that has the lowest value on the schedule in terms of the playoffs. There are 3 types of games an NFL team plays, and in order of significance, which is interchangeable with order of intensity it would look like this:

1) division games

2) conference games

3) inter conference games

So our focus should turn to the least important games, as intense games tend to become more defensive by nature, and urgency.

The second issue, is familiarity. Division opponents know each other, playing twice a year, conference opponents also see each other frequently, but inter conference opponents see each other once every 4 years!

So now that we have isolated the how's and why's to arrive at OVER situations in inter conference as the likely point of attack, here is where the gold is:

Since the changes that have occurred in totals, really manifested themselves over the last 3 years as depicted above, that is what we will focus on, and it looks like this:

1) inter conference games

2) home team has a lower winning percentage than their opponent

3) home team is essentially a dog, meaning the line constraint, sense the home field advantage is from -2.5 to any dog.

When we transpose these simple requirements into the last 3 years we find the over has been:

35-8-2 or 81.4% winners!

Have the odds makers started to close this window?

HARDLY!

It is a perfect 9-0 to the over this season, and 16-0-1 in the last 17! and 22-1-1 in the last 24, the reality is it has been off the charts!

It is active this Sunday when San Francisco heads to Jacksonville, so do consider the over in this game.

MY NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER.

This game fits a totals situation which is 134-70-2 since 1989, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 134-70-2 since 1989, and the play is on the under.

The St. Louis Cardinals evened the series at 1 game apiece, as they head back to St. Louis for game 3. This represents the weakest pitching matchup of the series, with Jake Peavy slated to go against Joe Kelly. Kelly seldom pitches deep into games, and has an ERA of 4.41 in the post-season, and has found more comfort pitching on the road this year as his home record is 5-4 with a 3.29 ERA. Peavy has been brutal in the post-season with an 8.31 ERA. Boston is 9-1 to the over in their last 10 as a road favorite, and Cards are 22-10-1 to the over vs a team over .600. Low playoff totals tend to go over as totals of 7 or less are 44-31-5 to the over in the last 80 occurrences. Play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 92-42 and 4-0 this year, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 92-42 including 4-0 this year, and the play is on the under.

Each of these teams have given up 27 points or more in every game they have played this season, the problem is the NY Giants have played a schedule of teams that are a combined 27-14, not 1-4. Historically speaking, a team playing as a home favorite of less than 7 points, that allows more than 30 points a game, playing to a total of 48 or less are 35-13 to the under, including 28-8 lately in the last 36. Play the under.

This game is from my strongest total situation, and is part of my 70% SYSTEM CLUB, this situation is 77-28, and the play is on the over.

It is rare that I get 2 strong total situations in the same game, that are independent of each other. I have in this game 101-50 and 62-30, and the play in this game is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation which is 52-17 and is part of my 70% SYSTEM CLUB. Play is on the under.

The Umass Minutemen won their first game of the year, and scored a season high 17 points. This is a team that averages less than 10 points a game. The good news is no team that is not from a BCS Conference has scored more than 28 against them all season. Buffalo is allowing jusy 12.3ppg against them in their 4 games vs teams not from a BCS Conference. Teams that average less than 10 points a game, that won for the first time at home their last game, have not produced a total of more than 42 points in their next game, and have averaged a total of 35ppg from both teams. Play this one on the under.

One of my strongest total situation is in play here which is 91-42, including 3-0 this year, play on the under.

Phillip Rivers after a few really bad seasons, has worked his way back to the form he once had, and the Chargers pass attack has been as good as ever. The San Diego offense is well above average, with the passing game averaging 8.1 yards per attempt on the season. The problem is, as good as the passing attack has been, the defense is allowing 8.1 yards per attempt to opponents. Indianapolis is an above average passing team, and below average defending it, so both offenses have the advantage when the ball is in the air, which should be plenty of the time. Indianapolis is 26-10 to the over facing a team that throws for more than 235 yards a game in their last 36, and 70-46 to the over in a road game, that comes on the heels of a home game in their last 116. I also have a 50-29 situation to the over for this game. Play on the over. While high totals tend to play under, 60% of totals of 49.5 and higher on Monday Night football have gone over the total. Play is on the over.

This game fits MY 70% SYSTEM CLUB, an 89-32 total situation that plays on the over.

This game fits a game 4 playoff situation that is 13-2. Play on the over.