Sports Picks & Predictions

This game fits a situation that is 130-81 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 242-137 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 113-57 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 241-137 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 504-350 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 240-137 ATS, and the play is on the under. (Sorry for the confusion, I made a mistake on the last entry).

This game fits a situation that is 216-122 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 310-175 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 310-175 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 113-57 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 239-134 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 239-134 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 113-61 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 238-134 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 127-81 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 236-134 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 236-134 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 504-349 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 232-106 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 503-349 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 68-39 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 313-197 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 236-132 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 236-131 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 125-81 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 556-419 ATS and the play is on the under.

1)  Team has allowed 100 or more points in at least 5 straight games. 

2)   Opponent is off a close win of 3 points or less.

These teams have played to a 80-125-12 O/U mark, or 61% of the time fall shy of the total.

We also have a team in the NY Knicks that has played 8 straight to the over, and this is where the value becomes positive on the under.

Play under on a team if they have played 8 or more straight games over the total. This covers 55% of the time as well.

Consider the NY Knicks and Denver Nuggets under the total tonight.

This game fits a situation that is 68-47 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 312-195 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Coach Bennett since he has been at Virginia has been an under machine. His team off a game that scored 125 points or less, and is playing to a total of above 116 in their next game is 80-35 to the under. Make the play on the under.

There are a lot of reasons I like this game to go over and situationally there is support. Jacksonville, in non-division games off a win where they committed 0 turnovers and had time of possession of at least 28 minutes, facing a team off of at least 2 wins is 21-0 ATS to the over.

This game fits a situation that is 312-194 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 312-194 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 312-194 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 124-80 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 168-93 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 230-137 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 106-55 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 81-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 81-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 81-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 550-426 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 550-426 ATS and the play is on the under.

 I have access to a lot of NFL stats, and with the playoffs, and teams from northern climates, the weather can become a factor. This game fits nicely into a weather factor game, due to the cold, and a team from a southern climate. The high in Pittsburgh is expected to be 17 on Sunday, so this game will be played with temperatures in the teens. The most recent 36 games played with a game time temperature from 11-20 degrees shows a big impact on the passing game, and ultimately the number of plays run in a game. Home QB`s pass for an average of 5.85 yds per attempt, road QB`s just 5.25 yards per attempt, much below average. When you look at games played in an average temperature of 61-70 the number of plays run is 120, when the temp. is 11-20 it drops to 113, 7 less plays. Moreover, a team from a southern climate, such as Jacksonville, averages 16.4ppg in this temp. range. Overall, including both teams, the 146 QB`s participating in 73 games in this range have thrown TD passes of 3 in 14 games, exactly 2 in 31 games, exactly 1 in 52 games, and 0 in 49 games. That means TD passes per QB is 101 of 146 throwing 1 or less TD pass. These numbers sugget a wise historically backed play on the under

The New England Patriots find themselves in a familiar spot, at home on a Saturday Night in week 19. This is New England and many times these games have been played in less than ideal conditions, and that will be the case in Foxboro Saturday Night. Right now Saturday is projected to see the temperature go from the low 60s on Friday afternoon, with 2-3" of rain, to a low of 8 degrees Saturday Night/Sunday Morning. I know the field is covered, but it is going to be treacherous footing as the game goes on. A soft field is going to become rock hard, and icy during the course of the game. Additionally, winds will be gusting over 20 MPH, and the combination is going to limit offenses, and the kicking game. I expect Tennessee to try and run and shorten the game, and should have some success vs a soft NE front. The New England offense is not nearly as explosive as it has been in past years, and I look for this game to play under the total.

This game fits a situation that is 234-130 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 61-28 ATS, and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 201-124 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 165-117 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 201-124 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 233-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 205-120 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 205-120 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 549-426 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 231-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 305-192 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 78-33 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 230-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 305-192 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 286-219 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 229-129 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 498-349 ATS and the play is on the over.

ROSE BOWL - Rose Bowl Stadium - Pasadena, CA

The Rose Bowl will host the 1st playoff game that has a pair of 12-1 teams, with stark contrasts going at it. Georgia power running game, and great defense, vs Oklahoma's power passing attack. The one question that comes to mind certainly is the health of Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, who has suffered the last several days from what is described as flu-like symptoms. He has been limited in practice, and did not participate in team events. While he may be fine, he may have issues with hydration, and stamina, we will have to see. I will assume he is 100% healthy. Thre have been a handful of January Bowl games that have put a prolific offense, against a prolific defense. I would define that as an offense that has averaged greater than 42 points a game coming into their January contest, going against a team that has allowed less than 16 points per game. Most of these games play out very close, as since the start of the 2006 season there have been just 8 such games, and 5 of them have been decided by 1 possession. If you go back all the way to 1987, there have been 22 such games. These games have seen the powerful offense average just 24.2ppg, while allowing 23.4ppg. They have on average played out very close. What you see by the numbers however, the games have not been very high scoring, in fact, 19 of the 22 failed to get to the total posted in this contest, and all 8 since 2006 have played under the total, and the most points the winner has ever had is 35, while the most points the loser has ever had is 21, which is still shy of the posted total here. The general history shows any Bowl team that averages more than 42 points a game erodes from the layoff to an average of 30ppg in a January Bowl game, while team that allows less than 16ppg, erodes a much lesser rate, allowing 21ppg. Neither of those scenarios says this one gets into the 60s. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 548-425 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game is based mostly on my strongest NFL totals angle which is 116-46 ATS. Make the play on the under.

The Miami Florida Hurricanes have their Bowl game at home, but despite of that they are posted as an under dog. The Canes have won 9 straight here, and have been posted as a home dog just 29 times since 1980, and have been 2-10 to the under since 2000. The Canes always play tough on defense at home. No team is even close to what they have done on home turf allowing an amazingly stingy 15.1ppg in their last 240 home games. WOW! Better than that, the Canes have not allowed any opponent to score more than 30 points here in 15 straight games, and that team was down 38-16 with 11 minutes left. Wisconsin has been amazing defensively themselves, as the Badgers allowed 2 teams to score more than 17 against them this year. Only the ultra elite offense of Ohio St. scored 27, no one else more than 24. Last year Ohio St. got 30, no one else more than 20, and in 2015 Alabama scored 35, no one else more than 24. They have allowed 14.2ppg over their last 40 contests, and are 10-4 to the under in their last 14 to a total of 45 or less. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 227-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 961-801 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 498-347 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 225-129 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 225-129 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that is 224-129 ATS, and the play is on the under.

West Virginia's offense has been led by Will Grier, and has been ruled out of the Mountaineers Bowl game vs Utah. More bad news is top RB Justin Crawford will sit out as well. There is big drop off on the W. Virginia offense as Grier threw 388 times, and Crawford ran 191 times, and Grier had 63 runs as well. Those numbers account for nearly all the WVU snaps this season. Utah is not a good offensive team, but the defense is very good. Big-12 Bowl teams from X-Mas to New year's eve  are 27-13 to the under as well. make the play on the under in this one.

The Wyoming Cowboys have an NFL caliber QB in Josh Allen. The problem is he is protected by a poor offensive line, a poor running game, and he has not played since Nov. 11th due to a shoulder injury. he has been upgraded to probable. His numbers have suffered this season and his 6.6 yards per attempt and 56% completion percentage is down from 8.6 a year ago, and his replacement Nic Smith is at 54% and 6.4, not much difference. The Cowboys win on defense. They have allowed 12.6ppg in their last 5, and are now 12-1-1 to the under in their last 14. C. Michigan scored big against bad defenses, and were limited vs good defenses, and look for that to continue here. Mountain West Bowl teams are 36-19 to the under when the total is less than 58, as well as being 21-4 to the under when posted as a -7 or less favorite. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 75-41 ATS and the play is on the over.

The 1st ever DXL Frisco Bowl will put the 7-5 LA Tech Bull Dogs vs the SMU Mustangs. This is an interesting match up, simply because newly hired SMU Head Coach Sonny Dykes was the coach at LA Tech from 2010-12, before taking the job at Cal. Dykes was hired just 9 days ago, and will coach this game, so his `air raid` offense may add a few wrinkles to the SMU attack, but for the most part left-over assistants will be doing most of the play calling. Most gamblers prefer the over, but do get a bit edgy when the number exceeds 70, as it seems like such a high mountain to climb. The fact is Bowl totals of greater than 66 have gone 31-13 O/U (23-8 O/U in December Bowls) since 2010, and with a Bowl favorite of -7.5 or less we get 23-6 O/U. (17-4 O/U in December Bowls). The 2009 cut-off is not arbitrary, it is the point in time, when NCAA Football scoring was taking off. The period from 2006-09 saw the average NCAAF game have a posted total of 51.9, and since then, 56.1. This has allowed high totals have a better chance of connecting. SMU averaged 40.2ppg this year, but allowed 35.5ppg, and playing games vs a defense allowing greater than 25ppg, their games combined for 79.2ppg. LA Tech averaged 51.5ppg in Dykes last season, and 11 of his last 12 there went over the total. His team averaged 34.1ppg at Cal, with 10 of his last 14 there over the total. His final year at both schools (when he had all his own players), saw the total go 21-5 O/U. LA Tech this season faced 2 teams that averaged 38ppg and allowed an average of 52.5ppg, while their offense against teas that allowed more than 30ppg averaged 32.2ppg. Make te play over the total in this one.

This game fits a situation that is 58-41 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 547-425 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 547-425 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders at 6-6 will take on the 7-4 Arkansas St. Red Wolves in Montgomery, Alabama. Every team looks for a motivational edge in a Bowl game and I think Middle Tennessee may have a score to settle. These teams last faced each other, both members of the Sun Belt Conference, and Arkansas St. beat MTSU 45-0. They have a chance for redemption here. teams that were shutout the last time they met their Bowl opponent, and it wasn`t the current season, the shutout team is 5-1 ATS winning outright by an average of 8ppg as an average 5 dog. MTSU is under-valued here, as they come in as the only C-USA team to have played 3 power-5 conference opponents, giving them a significant strength of schedule advantage, and upset Syracuse. This is a team that saw their highly sought QB miss 6 games, a talented WR missing significant time, and overall lost 125 player games to injury. They had just 4 players play and start every game. The rest is significant, as they will have just 3 players on the injury report. Another major edge is having played their last 2 Bowl games in Hawaii, and Bahamas, they get this one just 300 miles from campus and should have a crowd edge. They also have a significant situational edge here for this one. Bowl teams, .500 or worse, facing a team better than .500 as a dog from 2 to 10.5 in a December Bowl are 33-8 ATS, and on a recent tear, having gone 18-3 ATS in their last 21. Generally speaking a Bowl team with 6 wins, has the added incentive to use the Bowl game to complete the season with a winning record, and when facing a team with more than 6 wins, they are 68-42 ATS. It also assures their opponent isn`t very excited to play a 6-6 team. Make the play on Middle Tennessee.

The 10-2 Troy Trojans will take on the 9-4 N. Texas Mean Green in New Orleans. troy is getting a lot of support, ass they had one of the biggest upsets of the year, when they went don to baton Rouge, and beat LSU 24-21. Troy has had their best team's in their FBS history over the last 2 years, combining for a 20-5 SU record. The offense remains explosive, but not quite up to the standard set a year ago, but still 30ppg. Where this team has excelled is on defense where they have not allowed any team to top 25 points against them the only team in the country to have done that this season. N. Texas may look like a defensive slouch on the season allowing 33.8ppg, but their 4 losses, all to teams they were huge under dogs against, FAU (2), SMU, and Iowa, they allowed 48.8ppg against. Their other more competitive games saw them allow a more respectable 24.3ppg. North Texas will play this game without star running back Jeffrey Wilson, while Troy's win over Arkansas St. in the Conference Title game saw them lose 6 players, and 3 of them are WR's. Overall, C-USA totals have been big money in Bowl games, to the under, when the total is less than 64, where they are 3-22 O/U since 1998. Make the play on the under.

 ALL BASED ON 1 UNIT PER PLAY, NO JACKED UP RESULTS!2016SPORTWINSLOS8ESWIN %UNITS100.00 bet200.00 betNCAAF  17-18665255.9+8.89+889.00+1778.00NFL  17-18534255.8+6.41641.001282.00MLB  2017241257----13.91-1391.00-2782.00NFLX '176366.7+2.84+284.00+568.00WNBA '17201655.6+2.81+281.00+562.00CFL '178377.8+4.80+480.00+960.00NFL TOTALS162044.4-5.26-526.00-1052.00MLB PLYOFS54---+0.90+90.00+180.00NBA  2017654957.0+12.54+1254.00+2508.00NBA TOTALS281762.2+9.92992.00+1984.00NCAAB 17-18182541.9-8.63-863.00-1726.00                 
                         ALL SPORTS JANUARY 1, 2011 THROUGH THE PRESENTALL BASED ON 1 UNIT PER PLAY, NO JACKED UP RESULTS!****- The All games won/lost column does not reflect won/lost record of MLB, as it is a moneyline sport, but does reflect units won or lost. same with the total annual standings below.6YEARWINSLOSSESWIN %UNITS100.00 bet200.00 bet201155243855.9+71.06+7106.00+14212.00201252048451.8-23.19-2319.00-4638.00201348443452.8+53.09+5309.00+10618.00201454953350.7-8.80-880.00-1760.00201569266551.4+2.49+249.00+498.00201670165751.9-20.78-2078.00-4156.00201760252553.8+32.98+3298.00+6596.00                                                               ALL4067370352.4%+108.07+10807.0021614.00
 Yesterday's Result:



NBA:  0-0   

NCAAB:  0-0

NCAAF:  0-0

NFL:  1-0   +1.00

Won with Denver in the NFL  1-0  +1.00 units

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Over the last 2535 days clients are up +108.07 units documented daily.
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Please also note that football season is here, and Tuesday is now the day with no newsletter.
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The NBA season is one of the longest of all professional sports. The exhibition season starts in September and a Champion isn't crowned until the middle of June. That leaves just 2 months without any NBA basketball, July and August. There will be a lot of ups and  downs, and paying attention to what a team is experiencing in the moment is telling. Today in the newsletter we ill take a look at a situation that applies to a game tonight, featuring the Utah jazz at Boston. Boston has put together an early season resume built on defense, and the Utah Jazz has been a defensive oriented team over the past few seasons. No team scored more than 108 points against Boston, through Thanksgiving, but since then 4 of their last 9 have done so. Utah, has allowed 108ppg over their last 4. So we have a pair of defensive teams, squaring off to a low total, that have appeared a bit tired of late, so what do we have?:

1)  Road team to a low total from 191.5 to 199.5

2)  Road team has allowed at least 100 points to each of its last 2 opponents

3)  Home team saw 234 or more points score in its last game.

These teams have played to a:

32-5  O/U mark since the start of the 1998 season, topping the total by 11.91ppg. Each team has averaged 102+ppg. 

If your worried about back fitting a short defined total range, in this case 191.5 to 199.5, then also consider the fact that if we remove the total parameter completely and play this situation to any total:

203-140-3 O/U   59.2% to the OVER on 346 games. The 32-5 ATS is just a sweet spot defined by anticipated low totals. 

Consider Utah/Bos OVER the total tonight at the Garden.

This game fits a situation that is 296-190 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The New England patriots behind Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been a lethal combination, and continue to be. I don't think anyone would be surprised if they once again landed in the Super Bowl. They will take the field tonight without Rob Gronkowski, and he is a vital weapon for the Pats, especially in the red-zone. The Pats historically have played under as a heavy road chalk as they are 6-13 O/U as a road favorite from -8 to -15. Scoring in the NFL started to surge at the start of the 2012 season, and the games that have felt the least impact have been huge home dogs. Since that time NFL home dogs of greater than +7.5 points are 8-35 O/U. (falling short by -7.63ppg). Weaknesses don't last long around Bill Belichick. The New England defense allowed 32ppg through the first 4 games, and since no team has scored more than 17, and the Pats are allowing a league best 11.9ppg. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 84-48 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 221-127 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 545-425 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 221-127 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Sunday December 10th, 2017

The Cleveland Browns have had a poor offense for quite some time, and the Packers offense behind Brett Hundley has been awful as well. The Browns defend a lot better than their record, and Green Bay has had success vs poor offensive teams. Weather is often an issue off the lake in Cleveland in December, and it will be today as well with winds from 15-20 MPH gusting to a high as 30 MPH. Cleveland is 18-29-1 O/U in their last 48 December home games, including 4-15 O/U since X-Mas Eve of 2006, and 0-7 O/U to a toatl of 39 or less. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 221-126 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This series has seen the last 11 meetings play under the total. That has become well publicized, and this game opened at a fair price of 52. The public immediately bet this total down to 48, and as the game approached, and snow become the operative word in the forecast, this game has continued to plummet, and is down to 44 as of this writing and may drop more prior to the start of the game. The snow does not impact these teams, nor are snow games generally lower scoring. They both run the ball on almost every play, and the kicking game is going to have little impact as neither team kicks many FG's. The value pendulum is now flipped to the over as we have 8 points and counting from the opener of value. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 101-38 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 366-258 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 366-258 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 366-258 ATS, and the play is on the under.

It has been a season of misery and disappointment for the NY Giants, as they have gone from a playoff team in 2016 to 2-9 this season, with no hopes for the playoffs. The offense has been riddled with injuries, and has taken a step back averaging just 15.6ppg, and even worse than that over their last 5 games at 13.4ppg. The Giants last 2 games have combined to see 51 points scored by all teams, and when 51 or less points are scored in a team's last game, they are 25-10 to the over, and the Raiders are 21-8-2 to the over in their last 31 at home. More importantly here, this game fits a 39-4 situation to the over. Make the play on the over.

The Cleveland Browns have all kinds of issues, as they are 1-29 SU in their last 30, and here we are in December, and they are still looking for their first win. This is a team that has carried a strong home vs road dichotomy in their games. This season, they have averaged just 11ppg at home and allowed 20ppg, but on the road, they are scoring 19ppg, allowing 31.2ppg. This was also the case all of last season, scoring and allowing more on the road. The Browns last 21 road games have seen their opponent score 30+ in 2/3 of them, 27+ in 18/21, and 24+ in 20/21. The Browns offense has reached 20 points or more in half of their last 12 road games, while not topping 20 in 10 straight at home. They will have Josh Gordon in the line up, and Coach Hue Jackson says he will be instrumental in the offense this week. Chargers have allowed 24 or more points in 7 of their last 10 at home, and Cleveland has averaged 25ppg here in the last 2. Cleveland is 10-2 to the over in their last 12 on the road, while the Chargers are 7-1 to the over in their last 8 as a home favorite. Bigger than all that is the fact that road teams that scored 17 points or less, in at least their last 2 games, and also average 17 points or less on the season, and are playing to a total greater than 39, are 39-4 to the over last 43 occurrences. My NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER.

This game fits a situation that fits a 177-117 ATS situation ad the play is on the over.