Sports Picks & Predictions

The Bowls take on a world of their own, and there are a lot of tried and true longterm moneymaking situations that apply to them. One of those situations takes place in this game, one that has better than a 10 year history of forecasting a total, and this one in particular applies to this game, and has been a acash cow for years. The result has been 81.8% winners, and it is live for this game, and the call here is on the UNDER for a strong 5 unit play.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

The Bowls take on a world of their own, and there are a lot of tried and true longterm moneymaking situations that apply to them. One of those situations takes place in this game, one that has better than a 10 year history of forecasting a total, and this one in particular applies to this game, and has been a acash cow for years. The result has been 81.8% winners, and it is live for this game, and the call here is on the UNDER for a strong 5 unit play.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

George Mason has seen 9 of their 13 games played clear this total, while the Pride has cleared this total in 10 of 14, so combined this number has been passed in 19 of their 27 games, and Hofstra is yet to take the court with a total under the 130s. Pride tossing in 65 vs Kansas, and 67 vs Uconn, have the guns to score here, and are 8-3-1 to the over as a road dog up to 6.5. This one should play well into the 130s and I like this one to soar over the total.

The weather in Cleveland is always a battle in December, and this Sunday will be no different. The early forecast has me liking the under here, as the winds are supposed to be in excess of 20 MPH, with temperatures in the teens, producing windchill values below zero. There is also a good chance it will be snowing during this game. Games played in December in Cleveland have a track record of playing fast, and low. The last 9 games played after Thanksgiving in Cleveland have seen an average of 25.8ppg scored, the lowest in the NFL! I will play this one to go under the total.

This one will be played by two top defenses in weather that is not condusive to doing much other than run the ball. That means regardless of who is on the field both defenses will have a 12th man, and that will be a wind that is howling up to 40 MPH. That means both sides will be cheating against the run, and playing 8 to 9 in the box, making running even that much more difficult. The clock is going to be winding down fast, and the kicking game will suffer as well. I'm playing this one under the total.

Cal Davis is not a good basketball team, but they can score, which also means they play no defense. They have a pair of scorers that can also knock down 3's especially against lesser talented teams like UC Fullerton. The Titans can also hit some 3's but this game also falls under the graces of a very potent totals system that plays on the over. It involves a poor team after a huge scoring game. I'll follow along here and play this one to go over the total.

This is yet another in a series of games that are part of a huge system I have discovered. This system has beaten the spread continuously and is based on just a single condition, and has now over 2,000 games in the data set. This is one of very few plays I make blindly on systems, but with over 2,000 games in the data and just one condition, it is a blind play. This is a play on the OVER in this game, as it clearly continues to thrive.

The Mississippi Rebels may have piled up 46ppg in a soft 4 game non-conference schedule, but they aren't a good offense. This is a good defensive team and I expect them to be able to keep the Cowboys in the 20s here tops. By the same token the Cowboy defense will not give in either, as only high powered top offenses scored against them. This one will be much lower scoring than advertised. I will go with this one to fall under the total.

The Uconn Huskies offense has been thriving of late, but the fact is the Big east does not have a big defense, and when the Huskies stepped onto their own field vs North Carolina the offense could do nothing. The Huskie defense will be facing the quickest defense they have seen all season, and also will face mismatches with their secondary, which is under-sized, and the Gamecocks feature recievers in the 6-3 to 6-5 range, and that will prove deadly in the red-zone. The Huskies have done a good job under Randy Edsall, but the road has been a struggle where they are 4-17 when matched up vs Big East teams, and facing ranked opponents just 1-15. South Carolina faced 8 Bowl teams to get here, and all 8 are from BCS Conference's. They held Florida and Alabama to 44 combined points, and I don't think Uconn can get to 20 in this one. I'm going with this one to fall short of the total, UNDER is the call.

The emotions heading into this one set the stage for this pick, as well as a huge talent differential. The Bearcats are playing like orphans here as their coach abandoned them like a redheaded stepchild, the betrayal will impct this game greatly. Florida will have their coach one last time, for all the right reasons. I look for Coach Meyer to pull out all the stops, and score as much as he can, with noone to answer to, as he has done in the past when he had accountability, and this one should fly over the total.

This isn't a vintage LSU team, but it is definately a vintage defense. The Tigers held Alabama and Florida to a combined 37 points, and I don't expect a Penn St. team that is not equipped with the offensive speed to do much against this defense. In a way this reminds me of the Nebraska game, where the quickness on defense rules the game, and I expect that to be the case here. Penn St. did not beat a single ranked team among their 10 wins this season. They got their top 2 games at home vs Iowa and Ohio St. and lost both on the scoreboard and at the line of scrimmage. The better side of the ball here for both teams are the defenses, and I look for a field position game, and will play the under here.

There is one thing holding this one down, and it is the fact that Bobby Bowden is retiring. There is also something more interesting than that, this is still a 6-6 football team playing on New Year's day? The bottomline is the emotion will only carry this team so far, there is another team playing here as well, that is much better. Florida St. has absolutely no defense for the speed of Noel Devine, or QB Jarret Brown. The Noles are also down to a backup QB for this one who has 2 TD's and 6 INT's in just 82 attempts. I'm not overlooking the imbalance of these teams, with a team that is simply not qualified for a New Year's Day Bowl appearance. I'm going with West Virginia here. I see a lot of scoring here, and will play this one over the total.

The Northwestern Wildcats come into this one with the better record, but certainly not the better team. Their running game is perhaps amongst the worst of all Bowl teams, as the top back has gained just 295 yards on the season. When you consider their schedulr outside the Big-10 included Miami,O., Towson St.,E. Michigan, and Miami,O. there isn't much left, as Towson isn't even in the FBS and the other 3 finished at 5-31 combined. They didn't have to face Big-10 winner Ohio St. this year either. Auburn saw their wildcat slowed with the speed in the SEC, but that won't be the case here, and I look for Auburn to run all over this Wildcat defense. I also expect the Wildcats to put up some points here against a suspect Tiger defense. I'll go with the over in this one.

The Missouri Tiger offense lost a lot of weapons from last year's team, but really started to come together midway through the season. The Tiger offense that was grounded through their first 6 games vs FBS teams, averaging just 21.8ppg, got it going as the season progressed. That same Tiger offense produced 36.2ppg in their last 5. It is no secret what Navy is going to do here, run the ball. The difference here, is when they get teams cheating by loading 8 or even 9 in the box, they have made them pay, averaging 10 yards per passing attempt. I woud not be surprised to see Navy get a few very long yardage passing plays in this one as they temd to get teams creeping closer and closer to the line of scrimmage, and catch them with play action for a big gainer in the air. The Tigers rank #12 in fewest rushing yards a game, but this is a completely different attack, and Navy will get its yards. I like this one to go over the total.

Once again the NBA hardwood features a game that comes directly from the system that has produced winners for several years. This is a system that has over 2,000 games in the database, and is based on just a single condition, and one of very few I play blindly. Any system that is based on 1 condition and can consistently spit out winners and has over 2,000 games in the database is certainly viable on the NBA hardwood. This is a system play that is on the over in this matchup.

The Golden Grizzlies have taken on a tough early schedule, and have been no match offensively against the big boys. They have faced Syracuse,Oregon,Michigan St.,Kansas,Memphis, and Wisconsin in 6 of their games. Their average in the 6 was just 54ppg, so they look like a very poor offensive team. Hold on a minute! Their other 8 games against more reasonable competition, the Golden Grizzlies have averaged 84.6ppg. Huge difference! Leathernecks playing low often, but have a chance here vs a team they matchup with athletically and on a similar talent level. This one goes over the total.

The Hoosiers were offensively challenged last season, and looking bacl over their last 25 games, they reached the 70 point mark just 2 times. The fact is in their last 10 games they topped 61 points just 1 time. Things have certainly changed as the Hoosiers have scored 66 or more in every single game this season through their first 12.Wolverines will feel they have a talent,experience, and speed edge here, and will look for quick points on the break. All 4 of the Hoosier games vs BCS conference teams have played over the total, and I look for this one to do the same.

This is a disappointing setting for both these teams, as Nebraska was within :01 second of beating Texas, and Arizona blew a late lead vs Oregon, or could be heading to the Rose Bowl, so no advantage either way. The Cornhuskers have shown to be a difficult matchup for anyone on defense. Just ask texas or Oklahoma, who combined for 16 points against them. The probelm was their -12 turnover ratio, yet they stll didn't drop off defensively despite of it. The Arizona offense isn't designed for big plays, but more of a move the chains type offense, but sustaining drives against the Husker "D" will be no easy task. I'll play this one under the total

The Bowls take on a world of their own, and there are a lot of tried and true longterm moneymaking situations that apply to them. One of those situations takes place in this game, one that has better than a 10 year history of forecasting a total, and this one in particular applies to this game, and has been a acash cow for years. The result has been 81.8% winners, and it is live for this game, and the call here is on the UNDER for a strong 5 unit play.

These teams are both ranked in a similar state on offense at #88 and #89 out of 120 teams, and I don't expect much on the offensive side from either team. Neither team trusts their QB, and a lot of running will take place in this game. At the same time the defensive lines for both teams are amongst the best in their respective conferences. The Bruins played under in 10 of their 12 games on the season vs better teams. Neither has the deep threat, or QB to stretch the field, and I like this one to play under the total.

This is yet another of the 2,000 game one condition system that has won every season over the past 5, and one of few systems I will play blindly on. When you have a system that has proven over 2,000 games that it is a huge moneymaker, and based on a single condition, you don't hesitate to jump in, and thus is the case once again in this matchup. I will follow along, and will play this one, like the others to go over the total.

This is yet another of the 2,000 game one condition system that has won every season over the past 5, and one of few systems I will play blindly on. When you have a system that has proven over 2,000 games that it is a huge moneymaker, and based on a single condition, you don't hesitate to jump in, and thus is the case once again in this matchup. I will follow along, and will play this one, like the others to go over the total.

The Ram offense is based on one player, Stephen Jackson, and he is all banged up, but continues to play. The Cards don't do a lot of things well defensively, but they have been good against the run. The Rams have scored 13 or less in 9 of 13 games this year, and have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 28 or less points, so getting this one into the mid forties is going to be a chore. The Cards don't need this game, if they get a lead, I would expect them to sit on the ball, get a win, and move on rather than running it up, and exposing starters, for no reason. This one goes under the total.

This should be an ugly game, played in some light snow, cold, and wind, which seems to be the norm for Cleveland in December. The leagues two worst offenses, clashing in a meaningless game. While both seem to find an extra gear vs the good teams, they lay an egg vs the bad teams. This game could be over in 2 and a half hours, as both teams will want to just get it over with in bad weather, and nothing to gain with a win. I'll go with the under in this one. Raiders are 9-1 to the under as a road dog of 3 or less last 10, and Browns 8-2 under last 10 vs losing teams.

The Buffalo Bills offense has been pathetic, and other than a fluke game vs the Dolphins where they scored 31, they haven't found the end-zone very much. Their last 11 games, excluding the fluke show just 12.5ppg. The Falcon offense has been good for just 15ppg the past month, and it has led to 4 straight unders. Bills now 24-9 to the under in their last 33 as a road dog of 3.5-10. Falcons now 9-3 to the under in that same exact range as a favorite. This shows a valid history in this type of game, with under signatures from both sides, and I'll play this one to go under.

This is part of the 2,000 game one condition system that has been a winner for each of the past several years, and I will continue to play it throughout the season, regardless of the results, as there is just too long of a track record of these games to set aside no matter what. These games have cashed with a very high winning rate and with that many games in the databank and 1 condition, it is as good as it gets. This is a play on the over.

The Bowls take on a world of their own, and there are a lot of tried and true longterm moneymaking situations that apply to them. One of those situations takes place in this game, one that has better than a 10 year history of forecasting a total, and this one in particular applies to this game, and has been a acash cow for years. The result has been 81.8% winners, and it is live for this game, and the call here is on the UNDER for a strong 5 unit play.

The Magic played an ugly game vs Boston earlier in the season resulting in an 83-78 win. The Celtics will be without Paul Pierce for a cople of weeks, and that means they are likely to turn things up on the defensive end. The Celtics as it is allowing just 92.5ppg in their last 11. C's now at 27-10 to the under vs teams with a home winning percentage of .600+. Magic comes in with a 63-30 mark to the under after scoring 100+ in their last game. I like this one to go under the total.

The Bowls take on a world of their own, and there are a lot of tried and true longterm moneymaking situations that apply to them. One of those situations takes place in this game, one that has better than a 10 year history of forecasting a total, and this one in particular applies to this game, and has been a acash cow for years. The result has been 81.8% winners, and it is live for this game, and the call here is on the UNDER for a strong 5 unit play.

The Bucks have played a few low scoring games, which is holding the total down here. The bottomline is this is not a good defensive team, and the Wizards do one thing, they score. This game also fits a system that will be active here that has produced overs at the rate of 83% and has covered close to 70% of them by 7 points or more. I'll take the line value here as the Bucks appear defensive after a few low scoring games, but they are anything but. Over gets the call in this one.

The Lakers have gone over 100 points in 19 of their last 24 games, and I look for them to do the same here tonight, the question becomes, how much can the Thunder contribute? Chances are they will score enough, as in the role of a road dog of 5-10.5 points they have played to a 21-7 mark to the over. This is also part of the system that has won every year that has over 2,000 games in the database, that says the over is the right way to go here. I agree, and will play this one over the total.

Bulls may have crashed and burned worse tan any team in NBA history at home last night. They blew a 30 point lead midway through the 3rd quarter, and fell to the Kings. Not sure how much defense this team will be playing in this one, and it is also a system qualifier. This is part of the 2,000 game system that wins every year that says play over the total, and I will follow suit, and make a play in this game to go over the total.

This game sets up perfectly, as the Cornhuskers have held the last 3 opponents to 41,44, and 39 points, and on the season 6 opponents have failed to get out of the 50s. The cupcake fest comes to an end today, as Nebraska has played a schedule that has been softer than the Pillsbury Doughboy. Golden Hurricane can score quickly, and stepping up vs Missouri St., and Oklahoma St., Tulsa has produced 86, and 75 points, and will match those numbers against a false Nebraska defense. This one goes over the total.

What is happening to the Spurs? This team is playing different, and noone is noticing. Since Tim Duncan has been in a Spurs uniform, they have never scored 100+ in more than 5 games in a row. That is until now. The Spurs have topped the century mark in 7 straight games, and certainly playing differently than the half-court playoff type offense they have run for years. They have also topped the 100 mark in 10 of their last 14, and this is definately a team playing much more offensive. Clippers going for 112, and 120 in 2 of their last 3 don't mind turnng up the offense. Both clicking right now, and this also fits a dandy over system that has connected on over 65%, which means I'm on the over in this one.

The Charlotte Bobcats continue to draw low totals from the oddsmakers despite the fact the team is completely different from their 12 game start that saw them average 81.4ppg. The 13 games that have followed show the Bobcats now at 99ppg. They have consequently played 11 of their last 14 to the over. The Knicks certainly aren't a team that is afraid to get up and down, for that is their game plan. Mike D'Antoni is a run and shoot type coach, so I expect this one to fly over the total.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defense is not even close to what was a year ago. They allowed 27 to Oakland who had not topped 20 all season long and 27 to Kansas City, who had not topped 24 all season long, both season highs, both weak teams. Green Bay has scored 21 or more points in 12 of 13 games this season. They are averaging 28.8ppg on the road for the year. While weather is usually an issue for Pittsburgh December games, it won't be here, as it is supposed to be cold, but no wind, or snow. Packers are now 22-7 to the overfollowing an ATS win, and the Steelers are 9-1 to the over as a home favorite of 3 or less. Although Pittsburgh is usually associated with defense, they are 49-22-2 to the over in their last 73 home games. I'm going with the over here.

The Bears have gone south, and they put everything into their game last week vs the Packers. I don't see them moving the ball here at all, and the raven defense flexed its muscles last week vs a struggling team, and at 7-6, you can bet they will do it again here. I see this one as a very low scoring game, and I'm backing the under here. The Bears are now 55-26-2 to the under in their last 83 as an underdog, while the Ravens now 9-3 in their last 12 as a favorite. The UNDER gets the call here.

The Philadelphia Eagles have control of their own fate in the NFC East. They have played 8 teams with a losing record on the season, and those 8 teams have combined to produce just 119 points a game, or just under 15ppg. The Niners defense has more than held its own, as they allowed just 9 to Arizona last week3 to Jacksonville16 in their other game vs Arizona, and just 18 to the Colts. Mike Singletary always gets his team to play hard, and I like this one to go under the total.

When it gets late in the season, and you have 2 teams that have nothing to play for, a quick game is in order. The Bucs offense was immediately upgraded when Josh Freeman took over at QB. That changed rather quickly. After a couple big games, the other teams had scouting reports and film on him, and made adjustments, and the result was the Tampa Bay offense is now worse than even before. The Freeman led Buc offense has struggled to a total of 33 points the last 4 weeks, or just 8ppg. The defense that allowed 30+ in 4 of the first 7, has only allowed 30 to the Saints since, and has gotten better. Seahawks offense has sputtered to 20 or less in 9 of 13, this one stays under the total.

After many saw the Cowboys and Chargers play to a low scoring game last week, the obvious choice here would be for this one to do the same, since the Bengals defense is their calling card. The problem is the Bengal defense has not translated very well to good offensive teams. Minnesota 30 last week, Green Bay 24, and Houston 28. The Chargers are the only team in the league to go for 20+ in every single game they have played, so their offense translates well against any defense. These teams also have not produced an under in the last 7 meetings, so I'm going with the OVER in this one.

The Titans defense which was an absolute joke early in the season, has really gotten their act together. After a 5 week stretch of allowing a putrid 37ppg, the Titans have carved 20ppg off that margin and have allowed 17.8ppg since. They will be doing a lot of running behind Chris Johnson, as will the Dolphins. Dolphins offense has been slowed by key injuries, and after 4 straight weeks of 30+, they have not seen 30 since, averaging just 19.3ppg, below the NFL average. I like this one to go under the total.

This truly has to be the disappointment Bowl for Rutgers. A win vs West Virginia to close the season, would have placed them in a better Bowl situation. They will now travel to Florida for the St. Petersburg Bowl, and I don't expect the usually well travelled Rutgers contingent to travel in large numbers for this one. Central Florida will be elated to be here, as this is just their 3rd Bowl game ever, and it is just 100 miles from their campus. When it was announced that C. Florida accepted this Bowl bid, the backers immediately purchased over 10,000 tickets in the first few days, so this will for all intent and purposes be a home game, with a motivated team, vs a disappointed one in Rutgers. The CFU Knights aren't just in a good spot, they are a good team defensively, with an offense that has improved. They held texas to less points than all but Nebraska, and Oklahoma, Miami to less than all but Okla,Virginia Tech, and NC, East Carolina lessthan all but Virginia Tech, and NC, and Houston lower than all but 2 teams. needless to say this team has a big defense. They also can get a pass rush without blitzing, as 34 of their 38 sacks came from the offensive line, and the run defense is one of the best in the country. Rutgers is a much better defensive team, than offensive, and the Knights will struggle to score here as well. I like this one to go under the total.

The Charlotte Bobcats have not lived down the 59 point performance in their opener vs the Celtics, and the oddsmakers are always hedging their totals down. After averaging just 81ppg in their first 12 (excluding OT), the Bobcats have become much more efficient on offense and have averaged 98ppg in their last 12, a full 17ppg higher. Their totals have not been adjusted accordingly. The first 12 they played to an average total of 180.5, and in the last 12 they have played to an average total of 189. The oddsmakers have adjusted up 8.5 points a game, while the Bobcats are scoring 17 a game more, so 8.5 points of value remain here. Utah scored 83 in their last game. On the season after scoring in the 80s or less, they are averaging 115ppg! The last 3 years they have averaged 106ppg after scoring in the 80s or less, and have never had a game following those bad offensive outings of less than 96 in the last 3 years. I like this one to go over the total.

The Bowls take on a world of their own, and there are a lot of tried and true longterm moneymaking situations that apply to them. One of those situations takes place in this game, one that has better than a 10 year history of forecasting a total, and this one in particular applies to this game, and has been a acash cow for years. The result has been 81.8% winners, and it is live for this game, and the call here is on the UNDER for a strong 5 unit play.

The Tar Heels have had their way offensively with their talented young team, but will face a completely different challenge here, as the Longhorns own the best defensive FG percentage in the nation, allowing opponents to hit just 31.6% of their shots. The rebounds which have led to easy baskets for the Heels will be challenged as well, as both these teams are at +12.9 for the season, so the put-backs are going to diminish here as well. Tar Heels under in 4 of last 5 after hitting 90, and Horns playing an opponent who hit 100 in their last game, are 5-1 under as well. I like this one to go under the total.

The Phoenix Suns have played 11 of their last 13 games to the under. The biggest reason is they have been facing totals that have averaged just under 220 points. Now that they have played under so frequently, the oddsmakers have over adjusted this one down to a more than manageable 201, 18 full points below their previous 15 game average. It is now the lowest total the Suns have faced since the All-Star break last February. The last 9 teams with a winning record that has faced the Suns topped the 100 mark, and the Suns are 100+ in 21 of 25 games, and 38 of 44 going back to last year. How crazy is the adjustment? Phoenix played in Portland in late March last year to a total of 221, and the game featured 238 points scored. Since the end of January last year, the Suns have only faced 6 totals that were under 210, and all 6 have gone over the total. This one is way off, and under gets the call here.

This is another one of those chosen few blind system plays. I do not play very many systems blindly, but this one is powerful, and has a track record of winning each and every yer. There is now over 2,000 games in the database, and it is based on just 1 condition. When this system comes up, I will automatically make it a play, and it is a mid-level 5 unit play on the OVER in this game. As the season goes on there is likely to be fewer plays from this system, but there will continue to be some.

This is another one of those chosen few blind system plays. I do not play very many systems blindly, but this one is powerful, and has a track record of winning each and every yer. There is now over 2,000 games in the database, and it is based on just 1 condition. When this system comes up, I will automatically make it a play, and it is a mid-level 5 unit play on the OVER in this game. As the season goes on there is likely to be fewer plays from this system, but there will continue to be some.

This is one of those featured games that is part of a system that wins every year and has over 2,000 games in the database, It is one of a chosen few systems I play blindly, and it has had winning seasons every single year, and I'll stay the course with this system through the season. It points to the over in this matchup between Washington and Indiana. I will play this game to go over the total for a mid-level 5 unit play.

This game is always interesting, just because of the history, and not the competitive nature of the game itself, as Army over the last 8 years is 19-77 as a team, until they turned the corner this year, and actually will be in a Bowl game if they can win here. The 5 wins is the most this decade for an Army team, and so is their 4.22 yards a carry, and 212 rushing yards per game. For Navy they have not been as good this year running the ball, a theor 279 yards a game, and 4.79 yards a carry are the teams lowest figures in both catergories since the 1-10 team of 2002. This is also an Army defense that ranks #18 in the country, and one that allowed under 4 yards a carry, the best this decade for this Army team. The Army should be able to hold Navy down in this one, and this is also the worst Army offense of the decade scoring just 181 points all season, so I don't expect much here. I like this one to go under the total.

Always tempting to play this sharp shooting high energy Kansas offense over the total, but the fact is they play defense, and in their 8 games, have not topped this number but 3 times, but it took them averaging 104ppg in the 3 to do it, and I don't think they come close to that vs LaSalle. Explorers have had 3 games with posted totals, and all 3 have played under, and they won't be in a hurry here, or they will get blown out of the building. Kansas now 10-2 to the under in last 12 at a neutral site, and the database has a strong situation here that says undefeated teams off a home win, playing at a neutral site are 101-44 to the under, for 70% covers! I'll wrap this one in a bow in a large 5 unit play on the under.

This is a bigtime matchup of wills, as the high scoring Huskies tipoff vs the defensive minded Hoyas. Huskies having their way up til now piling up points, but they haven't seen anything like the Hoyas, who are suffocating opponents at 34.6% shooting, and allowing just 54.8ppg. Hoyas like to dictate frenetic, but ugly will on opponents with 40 minutes of in your face "D". This one also has some very hardlined trends, that all fall under, and that is the call here, as I go with the under for a mid-level 5 unit play.

I have been playing this system that now has over 2,000 games in the database and is hitting an extremely hgh percentage for a one condition system with so many games, and such a long history attached to it. It is one of few systems I play blindly, but this system can easily be trusted as it wins every single year. The system is alive for this game, and the play is a medium sized 5 unit play on the OVER in this one.

I have been playing this system that now has over 2,000 games in the database and is hitting an extremely hgh percentage for a one condition system with so many games, and such a long history attached to it. It is one of few systems I play blindly, but this system can easily be trusted as it wins every single year. The system is alive for this game, and the play is a medium sized 5 unit play on the OVER in this one.

The Big East vs SEC Challenge continues tonight, as Florida faces Syracuse. Both these teams have played higher than expectations early in the season, and like the Kentucky vs Uconn game last night, this one will take on a defensive signature. Syracuse and Florida both activate a very potent under system, one that has won and covered against the under 70% of the time with close to 150 games in the database!!! It plays off of unbeaten teams playing on a neutral court, and I'm following and playing this one under the total for a mid-level 5 unit play.

The weather in Cleveland tonight is supposed to be cold and very windy. The wind is expected to be 25-30 MPH at gametime, with higher gusts, which will hamper an already poor Browns offense, even further. The Steelers are in desperation mode right now, and I would expect whatever they have will be left on the field here. This is an absolute must game, with Green Bay,Baltinmore, and Miami left on the schedule, the Steelers are on life support here as far as making the playoffs go. Cleveland always plays low scoring games at home from Thanksgiving on, as the lake effect snow machine gets cranking, and the howkling wind, and biting cold produce sub-zero wind chills. The last 6 post Thanksgiving games have scored 23,16,14,8,27, and 30 points, or an average of 19.6ppg. I'll side with the under here.

The Huskies held Duke to under 30% shooting, and are not the most talented team on the court here, and they had trouble vs man athletic Duke team running their offense. One thing coach Calhoun's teams always do is play defense, and I expect the Huskies to do well in that area. Kentucky fits a very strong system play that shows unbeaten teams in a non-conference game off a home win on a neutral site, are 100-42 to the UNDER, that is over 70% of the time. This one stays under the total.

The Badgers over the last 4 years have scored 70+ against the Phoenix every year, while holding them down. This year the Phoenix at 8-2 have some fire-power to punch back with, and will be challenging the 70 point mark themselves. Phoenix playing much faster with more talent and have touched 67 or more in each of their last 8. While this is usually a one-sided offensive match, the Phoenix bring some guns to this battle, and I like this one to go over the total with a mid-level 5 unit play.

Ball St. lacks talent, and they are compensating by slowing games down to a crawl. Their last game saw them put up just 38 points vs Butler, allowing just 59. Their last 4 games have seen the average total points scored in their games at 107.7ppg. The Sycamores are not in a hurry either, never have been an uptempo team. Ball St. is off a non-conference home loss, and those teams have played 50-18 to the under in their next game, which is an amazing 73.5%. I like this one to be low and slow, and will make it a strong 5 unit play.

The Phoenix Suns really had the offense rolling like a machine over their first 17 games of the season. The Suns scored at least 100 points in all 17 games, and were averaging an amazing 112ppg. They have hit a bump over their last 4 games, 3 of them they failed to hit the century mark. The Suns have had an easy schedule to start the season, and just 7 of their first 21 games have been against teams with a winning record. That 112ppg average vs winning teams dips to 100.7ppg, a full 12 points a night less. The Mavs have played 8 games vs teams with a winning record, and are allowing just 93ppg. Suns at 9-1-1 to the under after an ATS loss, and I like this one to go under the total in a medium sized 5 unit play.

This game features the 90/10/15 rule. That is a system that plays under when you have a posted total in the 190s, a home team off a double-digit win, and a visitor off a 15+ point win within their division, thus the 90/10/15. It is a system sporting a 3-0 mark this season, and has historically done extremely well at 65% the last 12+ years with well over 150 plays in the data set. Top it off with the fact that Cleveland is 42-17 to the under after an ATS win, and we have a mid-level 5 unot play on the under in this one.

This is another one of those blind plays that have what is now approaching 2,000 games in the database. It is a 1 condition system that is 8-1 now this season and continues to shine. It has been a winning formula that has produced a profit every season for years and one of few systems I play on the blind, simply because there are so many games in the database it warrants a blind play. This will be a medium level over play, for 5 units.

The Hoyas are taking on the look of teams in the past, as their defense has allowed opponents to shoot just 35.2% for the season, and they have limited opponents to 53ppg. Butler has returned the entire cast from last year's team, and must point out early season game vs Ohio St a year ago that scored just 105 total points, so the Bulldogs certainly aren't in a hurry. Hoyas building off of big defensive performance as they are 14-6 to the under after holding an opponent to 50 or less. I'll make this one a small 5 unit play on the under.

There are a couple reasons this total is off in my opinion. The first being that the Ravens are known as a big defensive team, and the second is the frozen December tundra at Green Bay which is dramatically over-played. Let's address both these issues, and why this total is set to low. The Raven had a reputation for a big defense last year. That was true as they finished #2 in the NFL. That defense did not translate well on the road vs good offensive teams. Here are their 5 road games, including the playoffs vs good teams. They allowed 23 twice to Pitt on the road, 31 @ Indy,30 @ NYG, and 24 @ Dallas. That is 26.2ppg, certainly not a strong defensive team vs good teams on the road. This year they have played 3 top teams on the road. They allowed 33 @ Minn, 27 @ New England, and 26 @ San Diego. That is 3 games and they allowed 28.7ppg. So the last 2 years this top defensive team has allowed no less than 23 on the road to a good team, and has averaged allowing 27.1ppg! Now let's take a look at the frozen tundra in Green Bay. The Packers have played 4 December games the last 2 years, and the least amount of points scored has been 45, and the average 47.3ppg. Those numbers are above the NFL average considerably. The fact is 9of the last 16 have seen 45 or more points scored in Packer December home games. Now let's look at the Packer offense in Lambeau. The Packers have been the most consistent offense in the entire NFL, as they have scored 21+ in 10 of their 11 games, with a low of 17 vs Dallas. The fact is they have scored 21+ in 16 of their last 18 home games with a low of that same 17. They have scored 24+ in 14 of 18. They have also scored 30+ in 50% of those 18 games. The Ravens are 13-3-1 to the over in their last 17 as a road dog, because they can't stop good teams from scoring. The Packers are 22-5 to the over after an ATS win, and 18-7 to the over in their last 25 as a favorite. I'll go with this one to go over the total, in a huge 5 unit play.

This is another one of the games that is a blind system play that has won big for a number of years. This system has just about 2,000 games in it, and has delivered winners every year. It is already 7-0 this year (pending last night's results), and one of few I play blindly. It is based on 1 condition only, and it will be live for this game between the Wizards and the Pistons. The system play in this one is on the over, and it is a medium 5 unit play.

The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has scored 21 or less points in 9 of their 11 games, averaging just 13.3ppg in the 9 contests. The Panthers have scored 20 or less in 8 of 11 games, averaging just 13.6ppg in the 8. The bottomline is these teams are both offensively challenged, with neither producing an average of even 14ppg in 17 of the 22 they have played. The Panthers have been 16-3 to the under in division play at home in their last 19. Bucs are 11-5 to the under as a road dog from 3.5-10 in their last 16. I'll make this a medium 5 unit under play.

The Bears season effectively came to an end with their loss to the Vikings. At 4-7 their playoff hopes are dashed, and a no show performance is likely here. The offense has been dead all season, aside from a 48 point deviation vs the Lions, the offense has otherwise averaged under 17 points a game in their other 10. The defense has been good against losing teams, with a mark of just over 14ppg. The St. Louis offense consists of one player, Steven Jackson, and the Rams will try to run often here against a Bears front having difficulties stopping the run. The Ram offense is amongst the worst in the league, while the defense that allowed 28+ in 5 of the first 7, has allowed 28 or less in 5 of the last 6. This one should be a grind it out affair, and I'll play this one under the total, in a small 5 unit play.

The Rutgers offense hasn't been able to move the ball much against good teams and rank 94th in the nation. Outside of a game where they were simply overmatched vs the Cincinnati offense, and a debacle at Syracuse, the Rutgers defense has stood up to the challenge. They have allowed just 107 points in their other 9 games, or just under 12 a game. W. Virginia's defense is on the rise holding Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh to an average of 20 points in their last 2, and before that, Louisville managed just 9. Rutgers has played 8 of their last 10 under, and Mountaineers have gone under in 6 of their last 8 within the conference. I'll go with the under here.

This is a huge market inefficiency game. I have this one in a database that has 2,000 plays in it, and with just 1 condition, it has delivered the money 56.4% of the time. There is likely no other play out there that hits that high of a percentage with just about 2,000 games in the database. I will be playing this one accordingly, and the play here is on the over for a high level 5 unit play. I will be playing this type of game blindly the entire NBA season.

The Ohio,U. Bobcats have really come on as the season has progressed, and have played their way into the MAC Championship game against the Central Michigan Chippewas. The difference however has been facing a lot of poor to average offenses in the process. During their poor start, the Bobcats faced offenses that ranked as 4 of the 5 top offenses they would see this season, while in their final 7 played against offenses that ranked 114,111,100,89,85,79, and 43. That is an average of playing against teams that rank 89th out of 120 teams, and their defense was able to hold them off. The fact is, they played offenses that ranked from 38-51 not great offenses, but good ones in the 5 games they played against a team that was at least competent offensively. Those 5 games saw them allow 23,24,30,34, and 37 points! That is just about 30ppg. Enter CMU with Dan LeFavour with his 12,554 career passing yards, and nearly 3,000 rushing yards, and accounting for 145 TD's in his career, and it is an entirely different level for the Bobcats to deal with. CMU has played 5 home games, and has yet to score 45 or less, averaging 50.6ppg. I would be hard pressed to see Ohio, U. keeping them under 40, as offenses that were not nearly as potent, all put up big numbers vs this Bobcat defense. The Bobcats who were dreadful offensively early, have shown some life, averaging 30ppg in their last 4. I'll play this one to go over the total for a mid-sized 5 unit play.

The New York Jets are getting healthy, and they have begun to stop the run, something they couldn't do early in the season. They also have CB Lito Sheppard back to play with the NFL's bestDarelle Rivas. He will take Owen's out of the game, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to struggle here. The Jets have to limit the exposure of QB Mark Sanchez, because the Bills have 20 INT's on the season, and possess a very opportunistic secondary. I look for the Jets to pound the rocj vs a soft Bills front. While Sanchez has had most of his problems in 4 games, he has played 7 of the 11 with 1 INT or less. The Bills, and for reasons unknown, are 3-21 ATS after the Dolphins (just a footnote, not my reason here). I like the Jets in this one, as I think they can pound the ball, and with the secondary and run defense improved, I don't see the Bills scoring much here. I'll go with the under in this one for a large 5 unit play.

While these teams have a high offensive ceiling the total has now been priced out of what would be expected when these clubs meet. These teams rode a 9-1 OVER streak, but that was then, the now has seen 5 of the last 7 go under the total, as the numbers posted by the oddsmakers rise. We now have a total of 233.5, a number reached by these teams just 4 times in the last 17 meetings, and one of those was 234. The reality is over the last 2 seasons these teams have averaged scoring just 223.5 in their 6 games, and have topped this total in just 1 of them. Warriors went for over 125 last time out, and they have played under in 5 of 6 after posting 125+, as well as playing 9-2 to the under after a straight up win. Denver 7-1 to the under after allowing 100+, and 12-4 under after scoring 100+. Nuggets have seen 7 games this season where both teams scored 100+, and the game following has averaged just 201.7 points. Under gets the call as a low level 5 unit pick.

The oddsmakers are aware of things here, and that is the fact that these teams meet one time a season in New York, and the last 8 between them has seen the total go over. So what do the oddsmakers do? They tax the total to death, in hopes of catching the unsuspecting playing the trend, and penalize them for doing so, pushing all the value here on the under. The Suns for the last 5 years have been a fast paced uptempo team, and the Knicks for the past couple years as well. The highest posted total over the last 5 years when all games between these clubs have seen a total warrant at least 207.5 has been 219.5 in New York. When looking back, these teams combined to average more points between them a year ago at 214.6, than this year's 213.9, yet the total posted here is 5.5 points higher than a year ago! Those 8 straight overs saw these teams reach this total just once in the 8 games, without OT. Bottomline, this one shows value on the under, and that is my call a small 5 unit play.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are definately going through some growing pains, and it will be a while before they can be competitive. They are getting schooled by teams that like to run such as Denver,Phoenix, and Golden St. They have played 4 games against these uptempo running teams and have allowed an average of 127.5ppg. While not scoring more than 95 points against any other team, vs these defenseess running teams they have averaged 105.8ppg. This one is set to low, and I'll play this one over, as the Nuggets really have the running game going at 115.7ppg in their last 6

The Clevelkand Browns scored more last week offensively than they have in 15 weeks combined in terms of TD's, so the only thing to do with that is discard it, and look at the big picture. That's the picture that says 65% of the time over a season's worth of games, the Browns will not find the end-zone. It can also be looked at from the Cincinnati offense, that is grounded as well. Despite a 7-3 record, the offense has produced 18 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. That means the defense is getting it done, and it sure has with 4 of the last 6 Bengal opponents scoring 14 or less. I really don't see Cleveland finding the endzone in this one, and with a total hovering around 40, that spells under which is a 5 unit play.

The Houston Texans, and Indianapolis Colts inspire the thought of offense when you first see this one posted. The irony is, the total remains high despite a 20-17 game between these two clubs just a couple of weeks ago. The Texans after allowing 24+ in their first 5 games, all of a sudden have allowed 21 or less in their last 5, and at the same time an offense good for 24+ in the first 7, has scored 17 in the last 2. The Colts outside of the New England game, have not topped 20 in their other 3 in the last month of action. This one looks offensive, but the Texans are 7-0 under when the total is posted at 47.5 or higher, and I'll go under here.

*********WEATHER ALERT**********

Today: Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 52. Breezy, with a northwest wind between 18 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph

There is nothing that influences scoring like wind in a football game, and as you can see, the wind is going to be howling at the Dog Pound today. I live 30 minutes from the Rent, and I have a weather station at my house (second love), and it is now 7:30AM and the peak gust has topped off at 44 MPH already, with a steady wind of 20-25. The passing game and kicking games are going to take a hit in this one, and this becomes an automatuc weather alert 5 unit play on the UNDER! NCAAF TOTAL OF THE YEAR!!!

The Charlotte Bobcats after scoring 100 points in a game without the benefit of OT just 1 time this season, has scored 104 and 116 in their last 2 which is putting a large bump in this total. They did it vs 2 very uptempo teams, but the truth is, vs teams with a top 10 defense in points allowed, their games have combined to score 164.4 points in 7 tries. The high water mark was 183. The Cavs have played 5 games vs teams averaging under 95 points a game, and has allowed an average of 85ppg, and in their last 55 games after an ATS win the Cavs are now 38-17 to the under 69%. Bobcats at home vs the NBA elite teams that have a .600 winning percentage or higher, shows a 21-7 mark to the under in the last 28. I'll go big on the under here.

This series has been ugly for a longtime, as these teams hate each other. The last 24 times these teams have met the under has prevailed in 23 of them, and that includes all 4 games last year. The average final score is 10 points less than the posted total in all the games combined. This is one of very few blind plays I make in the NBA, but one that has never let me down. I'll go with this one to go under the total, which appears to be too high once again.

If it wasn't evident before Monday Night it certainly should be now. The Cleveland Browns officially have the worst offense in NFL history. They have now gone just about a complete NFL season, scoring just 4 offensive TD's in 15 games. The Browns are averaging 7.2 points a game in their last 15. So this total, although it may look low, is actually way to high, because it is asking the Lions to score 31 if the Browns get their average. There have been many of those 15 games against a defense on the level of the Lions, so I'm not allowing extra points to the Cleveland offense because it is the Lions. The Lions have not scored over 27 points in a game in 33 games, that is almost 3 seasons! Actually, the Lions offense without special teams or defensive scores, has not produced more than 24 points in a game in 28 games! So if the Lions maximum over just about 3 seasons is 24, that means the Browns have to score more than 2 TD's to put this one over, and they have scored 4 in 15 games. I'm playing this one under the total.

The New York Giants have fallen after a big 5-0 start, and their defense just hasn't been able to get it done, but signs in their last game point to that problem being rectified. The Giants have now had 2 weeks to get healthy, and focus on what they do the best. The Giants have given up 133 points in their last 4 games, but still rank #1 in the NFL in total defense. Sooner or later that will translate into stopping an opponent cold, and I think this is the week. The Falcons aren't a team that scores a lot on the road vs a good defense, and Matt Ryan has already thrown 12 INT's this season. The Falcons are likely without Michael Turner, and Jarius Norwood is also questionable with a hip injury. That weakens the Atlanta offense even further. Falcons the consumate under team as a dog from 3.5-10, where they are now 22-8-1 to the under. They are also prone to an under after a big rushing game where they topped the 150 yard mark, playing under in their following game to a 34-16-2 mark. Giants bringin the "D" after a bye, which has resulted in a 12-4 mark to the under. The last 6 between these two have seen the under prevail 5-0-1. I'll play this one under.

Army has played just one game all season that has scored a combined 50 points or more, and over the last 4 seasons the Black Knights have played 46 games with 35 of them failing to reach 50. North Texas has shown some offense but they have feasted on a schedule that sees the average defense they have played at 100 out of 120 teams in their last 6 games. They will face an Army team that ranks 13th. They will not be moving the ball against this Army team like they have against the very weak defense they have faced this season. Army is a team that hasn't scored more than 16 points in each of it's last 6 games vs FBS teams. This one goes under the total.

The UTEP Miners seem to have an allergy toward defense, or maybe it is the lack of talent on the defensive end. UTEP is allowing 40.3ppg in their last 7 while the offense is piling up 35ppg in their last 6. That is worth about 75ppg, and they will face a defenseless Rice team that has been hit for 40+ 6 times already this season, and is suddenly getting some traction on offense. Rice has played over in 49 of their last 62 games, and 37-7 to the over on turf in their last 44. They are also 22-5 to the over as a home dog. Miners are 6-1 to the over on the road, and the last 5 in this series have all gone over the total, including last year's 49-44 shootout, and the last 7 have averaged 75.6ppg. This one goes over the total.

The Toledo Rockets can score a lot of points, especially at home against a terrible defense. They have Aaron Opelt at QB who is questionable, but the offense has been able to generate the same yards per attempt with any QB they have used this season. The Rocket defense is one of the worst in the entire country, having allowed 30+ points in all but one of their games this season. The Eagles are still looking for their first win, and the offense has actually moved the ball better with Kyle McMahon at QB and they should have plenty of opportunities vs a weak Rockets secondary. This is a defense that has allowed 45+ to 4 teams this season, and noone has gone for less than 24. This one fits a system that has connected on 87.5% of all games that fit the criteria, and will be live here on the over. It has beaten the total by nearly 13 points a game, and if the total was set 7 points higher in the games played it would still yield results of 65% going over. MY NCAAF TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER IN THIS ONE

The Buffaloes have QB issues, and although Tyler Hansen has been getting most of the snaps, the offense isn't performaing any better, in fact it may be regressing. The Cowboys have a tough defense, especially at home, and the Buffs offense is more than a yard worse from scrimmage on the road, than what the defenses they have faced have allowed this season. I really can see them having trouble getting into the endzone in this one. Oklahoma St. has an average offense, and the Colorado defense has been average, so I don't see a runaway scoring game by the Cowboys in this one. With one team needed to do most of the scoring here, I like this one to go under the total.

The Miami,Ohio Redhawks aren't as bad as their 1-10 record would indicate, but when it comes to turnovers, the justification of that 1-10 record is certainly there. This is a team that has turned the ball over countless times this season, and have lost because of it. They have outgained many of their opponents, so from the line of scrimmage this team is highly competitive, and when they don't turn the ball over they get the ATS win. The Buffalo Bulls saw any Bowl hopes they had go down the drain vs Ohio,U. They haven't been much better than the Redhawks, as after a season opening win vs UTEP, the Bulls have a 4 point win vs Akron, and a win vs a non FBS team to show for their efforts. The Redhawks have played 5 of their last 6 vs a team with a losing record over the total, and Buffalo has seen 25 of their last 35 inside the conference go over, as well as 4 of the last 5 in this series. I like this one to go OVER the total.

The New Jersey Nets are off to a horrible start at 0-10, will face the Indiana Pacers at home tonight seeking win #1. The Nets have trouble scoring, but they will be playing a team that doesn't defend much, and likes to run in the Pacers, and this total is set way to low. The Pacers since the All-Star break in 2007, have played 118 games, and just 13 have ended with fewer total points than this total, and this is the lowest total they will have played to in any of the 118 games. When they have played to a total of 196 or less, which has only been 12 times in 118 games, they are 9-3 to the over. The Nets have played half their games vs teams ranked in the top 11 in points allowed. They have managed just 76.2ppg against those teams, but they have played 5 teams that rank below that level and have averaged 92.8ppg. They have only played against 1 team that averages over 100 points a game, and that was Denver who scored 122 against them. This game goes over the total.

The Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots always bring a high total, and that is based on 2 things, Manning vs Brady. The reality is these teams as a rule play much tighter lower scoring games. This year there is a different element in the equation. They both always bring top 10 offenses to this game, but this year they will bring top 10 defenses as well. The last 3 years these teams have met and the game has failed to produce more than 47 points, and that was without the defenses being as good as they are for this one. It is a Sunday Night game, and will be a layoff atmosphere and the defenses will keep this one from going over. Under gets the call.

The Arizona Cardinals always draw a rather high total, as the perception is this team is a powerhouse offensively, and a liability defensively. Well actually the Cardinal offense is living on last seasons #4 ranking, and this year they have slipped to 14th. Their defense is also allowing nearly a TD a game less over a year ago, so scoring is obviously down on both sides of the ball. After 10 times touching 30 last year, including the playoffs the Cards have managed to do so just twice this year. The Seahawks have not played well on the road in quite some time, as they are just 2-11 in their last 13, and have scored under 20 in 8 of the last 11. This one is going under the total.

The Detroit Lions have won just 1 game over the last year and a half. They have been bad on both sides of the ball, but have shown defensive improvements this season. Last year they allowed 30+ in 62.5% of their games, and they have pared that down to 37.5% this season so far. The offense has remained poor, but with no decline or improvement as they reach 20 points half the time, the same as a year ago. The problem has been their opponents intensity in division games, that matter, as the Lions have produced just 14.25ppg in their last 8 inside the NFC North. Minnesota may be at the top of the list, as the Lions have scored 16 or less in each of the last 4 meetings, and these teams have combined to score 43 or less in 7 of the last 9 meetings. Lions have played 6 straight to the under after their bye, while the Vikings are 26-12-1 to the under after an ATS win. I'll play the under here.

The Carolina Panthers are the classic under team when they play within their division at home. The last 6 years they have played 18 home games vs the 3 teams that reside in their division and 16 of the 18 have fallen short of the total. When the posted total has been set at greater than 40 they have played 6-0 to the under. These teams certainly don't display many offensive numbers to make this look uncomfortable as they both reside in the bottom 50% of the league in offense, and defensively, Carolina ranks in the top 10. Atlanta is also 38-18-1 to the under in their last 57 road games. The Panthers are 9-0 to the under vs a team with a winning road record, and 12 of the last 14 played in Carolina between these two teams has gone under the total. I'll play the under in this one.

The Charlotte Bobcats have had a dreadful start offensively, and the oddsmakers have taken notice, but the fact is, this isn't low enough, especially vs a Portland team that is snuffing out opponents, in half-court style games. Blazers allowing just 80ppg on the current road trip entering its 4th game here, and this one figures to play in the low 80s at best. Blazers now 8-2 to the under in their last 10 as a road chalk and Bobcats 20-6 to the under vs a team with a road mark of .600+. I'll go with the under here.

QB Trey Revell returned from injury last week, and LA Monroe will be ready to dominate a Western Kentucky team that is 0-9, and allowing 53ppg over their last 3. The Hilltoppers have found some offense in their last 6 games, as they have gone for 20 or more in each one, but the defense is the worst in football, and the offense simply can't keep up. Warhawks offense struggled without Revell as they scored just 16.7ppg in the 3 he missed, but have piled up 33.3ppg in the 6 he has played, and those numbers are held down by the fact they played Texas, and Arizona St. I expect another 50 points served up by the Hilltopper defense, and for this one to soar over the total.

The Alabama Birmingham running attack has been rolling over everyone, and at 6.38 yards a carry ranks only behind Nevada in NCAAF this season. The problem is their defense is as bad as their offense is good, and their pass defense allows more yards per game than any team in the country. Memphis is right there with them as the Tigers defense is allowing 33.2ppg and also 4.78 yards per carry on the ground. The Memphis offense has shown it can score against bad defenses, and I expect this one to be a shootout, and will play it over the total.

The Tennessee Vols have been in every game they have played this season under new coach Lane Kiffin. The have 4 losses by a combined 20 points, and those include games vs Alabama, and Florida, both on the road, and I have no doubt they can hang with this Rebel team, that isn't as good as last year's team that took everyone by surprise. Jevan Sneed has struggled, and already thrown 13 INT's on the season. The best and most consistent part of both these teams is the defense. Tennessee has allowed their last 3 SEC opponents, Georgia,Alabama, and South Carolina just 44 points, or under 15 a game, while Ole Miss has held 7 of 9 opponents to 17 or less. This one figures to be tight and low, and getting 6 points with a team that has the ability to win here, and has been in every game is the way to go. Under gets the call here

The Temple Owls are 7-1 vs FBS teams, with the lone loss coming to Penn St. They have won 7 in a row. What is more amazing about it, is they have been outgained in those 7 games by 71 total yards! So here is a team that is winning every game, but in all the games combined, they have been outgained. They have even had a +10 turnover margin, which means 10 extra possessions, to 10 less possessions for the opponent, or a combined total of 20 extra possessions or just about 3 a game! Needless to say the offense is brutal, and averages -0.7 yards per play worse than their opponents have allowed on the season. Akron has allowed big points to big teams, but outside the scoring machine of Central Michigan has not allowed more than 28 to anyone, and their defense rates above average. Both defenses are above average, and both offenses are below average so I expect a low scoring game here, and I'll go with the under.

This is obviously a big game for both teams as Cincinnati is trying to stay unbeaten, and see if they can make a move toward a Championship Game if someone stumbles, and West Virginia with just 1 conference loss can draw even with the Bearcats with a win. The one thing that stands out to me in this game, is neither defense has been able to stop a good offense. The numbers look good defensively for both teams, but when you look where the numbers came from it opens eyes. W. Virginia played Liberty, who isn't even a FBS team, and 5 other teams ranked 74th or lower on offense. The only 3 games they played vs a legitimate offense was Uconn #36, S, Florida #58, and Auburn #11. Those teams averaged 31.7ppg against W. Virginia, and also 441 yards a game. What is even more glaring is the Mountaineers were defenseless against the pass, where they allowed over 9 yards an attempt on average in the 3 games. Well guess what? Cincinnati is averaging 9.5 yards per attempt and will be up and down the field really fast in this one. Cincinnati is similar, as they played a non FBS team, as well as 4 others ranked 74th or worse offensively. Their 3 games against at least a decent offense showed 416 yards per game, 27.7ppg, so the Mountaianeers will move the ball on them as well. I see this one more in the 60+ range, and I'm playing this one over the total.

The Miami Heat showed in the playoffs last season they are all about defense, and will have a methodical Cavs team that will allow for a half-court game here. The Heat have held 5 of 7 teams in the 80s or less, and it has led to 6 straight unders. The Cavs are off an emotional game with Orlando last night, and they have played on back-to-back nights 3 times this season, with all 3 going under the total. The Cavs have also played 7 of their last 8 as a road favorite to the under, and are now 37-15 to the under after an ATS win. Maimi has built off of big straight up wins, by bringing the "D", as they have played under to a 17-5 mark off a win of 10 points or more, and are now also 14-2 off of any straight up win! I like this one to go under the total.