Sports Picks & Predictions

All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-26-20	Army v. Cincinnati UNDER 45.5	Top	10-24	Win	100	75 h 33 m	Show
The Army has started at 2-0, after a disappointing 5-8 season in 2019. I don`t think the 2-0 record says they are back, as they were 3-1 last yer, before finishing 2-7. This year they have faced 2 brutal opponents, and it has made them look a lot better than they really are. The offense is going to struggle against a Cincinnati defense that allowed 20.6ppg a year ago and return 10 starters. Those 10 starters shutout Navy allowing 124 rushing yards on 52 carries. Army tends to have an edge running the triple option, but Cincinnati has defended the option vs Navy with the returning starters, and I don`t think Army is going to score much at all here. The Army defense is pretty solid and Cincinnati is not an explosive offensive team. Army will milk a lot of clock running on just about every down, and Cincinnati runs a lot as well. This game fits an extremely strong under indicator, that is 40-6-6 ATS, that plays in part on two teams off 4 TD or better wins. Make the play on the under.
09-25-20	Red Sox v. Braves OVER 10.5	Top	7-8	Win	100	10 h 14 m	Show
This gam fits a situation that has an ROI of +13.9% and the play is on the over.
09-20-20	Lions v. Packers OVER 49.5	Top	21-42	Win	100	45 h 58 m	Show
If you are a Packers fan, it was good to see Aaron Rodgers have a big day. Many thought the Packers loading up on running backs, and not addressing the pass catchers Rodgers needs meant the Packers were going to turn to the running game. That certainly wasn't the case vs a depleted and weak Minnesota secondary, and likely we will see the same thing vs Detroit, who has a depleted secondary due to injuries.The Packers put up over 500 yards of offense, but also gave up 34 points themselves. Matthew Stafford completed 24-of-42 attempts for 297 yards, one touchdown, and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt.Those are strong numbers against a pretty good Bears defense. I think Stafford can put up similar numbers against Green Bay, and the fast pace offense of the Bears was too much for the Lions. There was 7 points lost in that game as D"Andre Swift dropped a wide open pass in the end-zone that would have won the game for the Lions with just a few ticks on the clock. Make the play over the total.
09-17-20	Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 11.5	Top	9-3	Win	100	12 h 32 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +11.4% and the play is on the over.
09-15-20	Heat v. Celtics UNDER 210	Top	117-114	Loss	-109	10 h 40 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 104-64-4 ATS. Make the play on the under.
09-12-20	Duke v. Notre Dame UNDER 53.5	Top	13-27	Win	100	25 h 2 m	Show
Notre Dame will be a member of the ACC in the strange year of covid-19. This has long been a team predicated on defense. Over the last 179 Irish games the under has prevailed 100-74-5 ATS, with just an average of 49 total points having been scored despite the average total being posted in their games having been 53.2. There is a long term bias on this team's posted totals. It may be attributable of the huge following this team has, and square bettors opting for the over the majority of the time. Once again I see that bias at work in the total here as I see 6-7 points worth of value. Notre Dame in its last 350 games has allowed 18.4ppg. that drops to 15.1ppg in game 1. Duke averaged a misleading 25ppg a year ago, but against the better defensive teams they were extremely limited, and managed just 7 vs ND. Former Clemson QB Chase Brice will be the Duke QB, but with limited practice time, and a strong defense, I'm not believing he will have a whole lot of success. This total is quite tainted in history, and as it stands now. Make the play on the under.
09-11-20	Celtics v. Raptors OVER 203.5	Top	92-87	Loss	-110	12 h 58 m	Show
This is a game 7 and ther is a long history o game 7's playing under the total, however that has been baked into the line here. This game fits a situation that is 186-100-10 ATS, which is 32-16 ATS if it is a playoff game, including 2-0 if it is game 7. Make the play on the over.
09-05-20	Arkansas State v. Memphis UNDER 74.5	Top	24-37	Win	100	11 h 32 m	Show
The Arkansas Red Wolves have a long history of being a very strong team at home, but a very weak one on the road. When it comes to playing outside the conference the numbers only get worse. Arkansas St. is 40-24 SU at home outside the conference, and over the same period of time they are 7-103-5 SU on the road. The average score of the games at home have been 31.7 to 21.6 on the road just 13.7 to 35.7. This has led to an abundance of games failing to get to the total, as the under is cashing just 27.2% of all games. One huge change in the Red Wolves offense is the loss of WR Omar Bayless and his 17 TDs and 1,653 yards. He averaged nearly 12 yards per target, and that simply will not be replaced. The Memphis defense should be better this year with 8 returning starters and the entire secondary. A high total like this in game 1 and the situation here tends to look inflated. Make the play on the under.
09-02-20	Indians v. Royals OVER 9	Top	5-0	Loss	-100	11 h 46 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +13.0% and the play is on the over.
09-02-20	Braves v. Red Sox OVER 10.5	Top	7-5	Win	100	10 h 11 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.2% and the play is on the over.
09-02-20	Giants v. Rockies OVER 12	Top	6-9	Win	100	6 h 52 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.2% and the play is on the over.
08-31-20	Nationals v. Phillies OVER 10	Top	6-8	Win	100	10 h 47 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.2% and the play is on the over.
08-29-20	Padres v. Rockies OVER 13	Top	3-4	Loss	-100	11 h 5 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +11.4% and the play is on the over.
08-29-20	Nationals v. Red Sox OVER 11.5	Top	3-5	Loss	-100	10 h 26 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.3% and the play is on the over.
08-25-20	Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 10.5	Top	9-7	Win	100	11 h 37 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +16.7% and the play is on the over.
08-25-20	Phillies v. Nationals OVER 10.5	Top	8-3	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +16.7% and the play is on the over.
08-23-20	Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 10.5	Top	4-5	Loss	-100	5 h 40 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.4% and the play is on the over.
08-23-20	Marlins v. Nationals OVER 10	Top	3-9	Win	100	4 h 11 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.4% and the play is on the over.
08-22-20	Tigers v. Indians OVER 9.5	Top	1-6	Loss	-105	10 h 2 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.4% and the play is on the over.
08-20-20	Astros v. Rockies OVER 11	Top	10-8	Win	100	5 h 3 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 14.2% and the play is on the over
08-20-20	Phillies v. Blue Jays OVER 9	Top	2-3	Loss	-100	3 h 58 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 14.2% and the play is on the over
08-19-20	Astros v. Rockies OVER 12.5	Top	13-6	Win	100	12 h 27 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.2%, and the play is on the over.
08-19-20	Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5	Top	124-105	Win	100	7 h 54 m	Show
The Denver Nuggets needed overtime in game 1, and came away with a 10 point win. Donovan Mitchell was immense for the Jazz as he scored 57 in the loss. The game saw 230 points scored prior to overtime despite the fact the Jazz connected on just 16-49 from deep, turned the ball over 15 times, and could not get stops when needed the most. I think the best offensive matchup for the Jazz is Rudy Gobert, and look for him to get a lot more touches in game 2. These teams have played all close games this season with the last 2 going to overtime, so there could be a lot of free throws in the final 1-2 minutes off this one. This game also fits a situation that is 563-403-17 ATS to the over, which is also 62-34-2 ATS to the over in the playoffs. make the play on the over.
08-18-20	Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 10.5	Top	13-6	Win	100	10 h 15 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.2% and the play is on the over.
08-18-20	Nationals v. Braves OVER 9.5	Top	8-5	Win	100	10 h 54 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.2% and the play is on the over.
08-17-20	Nationals v. Braves OVER 10	Top	6-7	Win	100	10 h 17 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that has an ROI of +14.1% and the play is on the over.
08-17-20	Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 10	Top	3-6	Loss	-120	10 h 13 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that has an ROI of +14.1% and the play is on the over.
08-16-20	Rangers v. Rockies OVER 12	Top	6-10	Win	100	7 h 7 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +16.5%, and the play is on the over.
08-15-20	Rangers v. Rockies OVER 11.5	Top	6-4	Loss	-100	11 h 56 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +14.1%, and the play is on the over.
08-14-20	Rangers v. Rockies OVER 12.5	Top	3-2	Loss	-107	11 h 19 m	Show
This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 16.4% and the play is on the over.
08-13-20	Orioles v. Phillies OVER 9.5	Top	11-4	Win	101	9 h 33 m	Show
This game fits a total situation that is 1072-705-85 ATS, and the play is on the over.
08-13-20	Mavs v. Suns OVER 231	Top	102-128	Loss	-110	6 h 16 m	Show
This game fits a total situation that is 563-402-17 ATS, and the play is on the over.
08-13-20	Wizards v. Celtics OVER 229.5	Top	96-90	Loss	-110	3 h 46 m	Show
This game fits a total situation that is 446-312-22 ATS, and the play is on the over.
08-11-20	Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11	Top	7-8	Win	100	11 h 17 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 1070-704-85 ATS with an ROI of +14.1%. Make the play on the over.
08-11-20	Blazers v. Mavs OVER 234.5	Top	134-131	Win	100	9 h 51 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 94-43-3 ATS, and the play is on the over.
08-08-20	Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 221.5	Top	132-134	Loss	-105	3 h 55 m	Show
Saturday August 8th, 2020 Top Total Play · Under [715] Utah Jazz vs. [716] Denver Nuggets Sat Aug 8th, 2020 3:35pm EDT Win/Loss Undecided Expert Preview: MREAST NBA SATURDAY PLAY OF THE DAYExpert Analysis: This game fits a total situation that is 208-130-7 ATS, and the play is on the under.
08-07-20	Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 218.5	Top	122-100	Loss	-105	12 h 35 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 188-116 ATS, and the play is on the under.
08-07-20	Jazz v. Spurs OVER 226.5	Top	111-119	Win	100	4 h 37 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 178-96 ATS, and the play is on the over.
08-04-20	Giants v. Rockies OVER 12	Top	2-5	Loss	-113	11 h 57 m	Show
SCORING UP FOR BOTH TEAMS = OVER: When there is a game between a pair of teams in MLB that have played a week worth of games, and the runs their games are producing has averaged pretty high, and they are facing each other to a high total, the tendency is for them to play over the total. Today in the newsletter we will illustrate exactly that theory, and call on a game that applies on tonight's card. Let's take a look: 1) Both teams are averaging a combined score of more than 9 runs a game over their last 7 games. 2) Total is greater than or equal to 10 3) I will insert this is a road game just to stop the games from being counted twice: A(runs + o:runs,N=7) > 9 and oA(runs+o:runs,N=7) > 9 and total >= 10 and ASU:871-986 (-0.17, 46.9%) avg line: 114.4 / -127.7 on / against: -$2,604 / -$6,943 ROI: -1.2% / -2.7% RL:614-566 (0.26, 52.0%) avg line: -125.4 / 109.3 on / against: -$8,016 / -$543 ROI: -5.1% / -0.4% OU:1070-703-85 (1.78, 60.3%) avg total: 10.6 over / under: +$29,063 / -$47,175 ROI: +14.2% / -23.0% As you can see there are tons of games with a sample size of over 1,850 games a win rate on the over of 60.3%. that is about as solid as it gets. Tonight consider SF/COLO OVER the total.
08-04-20	Indians v. Reds UNDER 8	Top	4-2	Win	103	8 h 26 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 290-215-26 to the under. Make the play on the under.
08-03-20	Pacers v. Wizards OVER 227.5		111-100	Loss	-110	6 h 28 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that has a 58.6% win rate. Make the play on the over.
08-02-20	Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 234.5	Top	108-106	Loss	-101	8 h 42 m	Show
This game fits a total situation that has produced 58.4% winners over the last 11 years. The play is on the over.
03-11-20	Hornets v. Heat UNDER 212.5	Top	109-98	Win	100	10 h 6 m	Show
The Charlotte Hornets are a woeful 22-42 on the season. The offense has really struggled but thy have recently found a few more answers as their last 4 games have seen this team average 115.3ppg, which is their highest 4 consecutive game average of the season. They have issues with the better teams on the road where their usually good defense has been torched for 115.6ppg against a team .500 or better. Miami has been a hidden gem playing them on the over where they are now 46-15-1 ATS to the over as a home favorite of more than -3 points, to a total of greater than 206 in their last 62 beating the total on average by +5.48ppg. make the play on the over.
03-11-20	Pistons v. 76ers UNDER 215.5	Top	106-124	Loss	-110	10 h 56 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 107-47-2 ATS and the play is on the under.
03-11-20	Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion UNDER 130	Top	66-56	Win	100	11 h 31 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 63-31 ATS (which is also 37-14 ATS in March games) to the under. I also see a couple points of line value here. Make the play on the under.
03-11-20	Georgia v. Ole Miss UNDER 144	Top	81-63	Push	0	10 h 27 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 81-47 ATS, and the play is on the under.
03-11-20	Utah v. Oregon State UNDER 135.5	Top	69-71	Loss	-109	7 h 36 m	Show
Most of the NCAA Conference Tournaments are played at a neutral site. There are 2 things at work here, that assist the total going under. First there are the nerves that have to be settled down, and 2nd a neutral court means that neither team has a lot of experience shooting in a background that they are not accustomed to. When you add to the mix that the total isn't exceedingly low, and the favorite is a low volume shooting team (55 shots a game or fewer), we have all the elements in play to put our thumbs on the scales and have an advantage over the odds-makers. This can be depicted like this: 1) Neutral court 2) Conference tournament 3) True favorite of -3 or more 4) total is 129 or higher 5) Favorite averages 55 shots per game or fewer. site = neutral and total >= 129 and tA(FGA)
03-10-20	Nets v. Lakers OVER 223	Top	104-102	Loss	-110	14 h 42 m	Show
The Lakers have scored 111 or more points in 15 of their last 16 games. That includes 12 straight at home. they have also scored 117 or more in 14 of 17 games at home vs a team with a losing record, where they average 120ppg. This game fits a situation that is 202-147 ATS to the over (22-4 ATS the last 26). Make the play on the over.
03-10-20	Clippers v. Warriors OVER 226.5	Top	131-107	Win	100	13 h 47 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 202-147 to the over (22-4 lately). Make the play on the over.
03-10-20	Mavs v. Spurs OVER 227	Top	109-119	Win	100	11 h 5 m	Show
The Spurs mantra over the past 2 decades was built on defense, but things have changed. They have allowed 7 of the last 13 teams they faced to shoot over 50%. This game fits a situation that is 202-147 to the over (22-4 lately). Make the play on the over.
03-10-20	Manhattan v. Fairfield UNDER 114.5	Top	61-43	Win	100	6 h 12 m	Show
The Metro Atlantic Conference Tournament gets underway today as Fairfield at 12-19 takes on a 12-17 Manhattan team. Fairfield is a major slow-down team and over their last 3 games they have attempted just 44.5 shots per game. This has gone on for quite some time at Fairfield as the Stags own a 167-209-4 O/U mark in their last 380 games played, and this year they are 7-24 O/U (2-14 O/U in their last 16). Both of these teams shoot under 40% on the season. bettors hate playing under on low totals, but the sharp action is all over the under, as this game`s total has dropped despite 65% of the public being on the over. I also have a game indicator for the first round of a conference tournament where the butterflies kick in and 2 losing teams to a very low total which is 25-4 to the under. (not a large sample size), but it fits the expectation of this game. Make the play on the under.
03-09-20	San Francisco v. Gonzaga UNDER 151.5	Top	77-81	Loss	-109	11 h 11 m	Show
March Madness has begun as Conference Tournaments have already seen plenty of upsets. The neutral court sometimes creates problems for a team offensively as they have a different shooting background and in many cases that takes time for the players to get used to. Higher scoring teams off a pair of over games to help elevate the total seem to be an area of impact for these games. Let's take a look: 1) Neutral site 2) Favored by -4 or more points 3) The team is off at least 2 games over the total 4) team averages 80+ 5) Opponent averages at least 70+ site = neutral and tA(points) >= 80 and p:O and pp:O and line = 70SU:122-35 (9.15, 77.7%) ATS:86-69-2 (-0.24, 55.5%) avg line: -9.4O/U:64-91-2 (-2.23, 41.3%) avg total: 151.4 These games have produced 58.7% of 157 games UNDER the total. Tonight consider San Francisco and Gonzaga UNDER the total.
03-08-20	Raptors v. Kings OVER 228.5	Top	118-113	Win	100	11 h 20 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 200-147 ATS and the play is on the over.
03-08-20	Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 226.5	Top	112-103	Win	100	6 h 50 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 205-127 ATS and the play is on the under.
03-03-20	Albany v. Vermont UNDER 131.5	Top	62-85	Loss	-110	6 h 46 m	Show
The Vermont program gas been very consistently good over the years. They have posted 20+ wins for 12 straight years. They have played to a lower posted total on average than any of the previous 6 years. They are scoring and allowing fewer points than any of the precious 5 seasons. The defense is allowing 59.2ppg, while the offense is at just 71.1ppg, the lowest mark in 6 yrs. Albany is a slow-down team that is 64-37 to the under in its last 101 games (20-7 this year). I expect this game to play in the 120s, or less. make the play on the under.
03-01-20	Lakers v. Pelicans UNDER 234	Top	122-114	Loss	-110	11 h 51 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 347-211-12 ATS and the play is on the UNDER
03-01-20	Raptors v. Nuggets UNDER 217.5	Top	118-133	Loss	-110	9 h 48 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 196-139-7 ATS and the play is on the UNDER
03-01-20	Mavs v. Wolves UNDER 244	Top	111-91	Win	100	6 h 19 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 347-211-12 ATS and the play is on the UNDER
03-01-20	Bucks v. Hornets UNDER 218	Top	93-85	Win	100	4 h 52 m	Show
This game fits a totals situation that is 347-211-12 ATS and the play is on the UNDER
02-29-20	Stony Brook v. Albany UNDER 137	Top	52-49	Win	100	10 h 36 m	Show
Albany has been 64-35 ATS to the under over its last 99 games, and I see some line value here as well. Make the play on the under.
02-29-20	North Dakota v. South Dakota OVER 154	Top	67-77	Loss	-115	8 h 32 m	Show
South Dakota is one of the top shooting teams in the country on their home floor as they are connecting on 53% for the season. They are also shooting 43.1% from 3 on home hardwood. North Dakota plays spotty defense, especially on the road so the home team here is going to have a lot of open and easy looks. South Dakota is averaging 86ppg at home on the season. South Dakota has been 18-8-1 ATS to the over on the season. Moreover this N. Dakota team is 66-38-1 ATS to the over in their last 105 road games. (`12-4 ATS this year). Make the play on the over.
02-29-20	Akron v. Buffalo UNDER 155	Top	86-73	Loss	-109	5 h 41 m	Show
A high level MAC Conference game has Akron taking on Buffalo. The Bulls were a Cinderella type team a year ago, but lost a lot of firepower. They are still scoring because of a fast pace attack but the shooting percentages are considerably down from a year ago. Akron is 21-7 and in a similar boat, as they like to run as well, but are not a very efficient offense. Both these teams defend very well. Akron has been a fool's gold team as they tend to score a lot of points, but never reach the potential set by the odds-makers. Akron is 62-34-1 ATS to the under in its last 97 games, and their last 8 have played under the total, none reaching the level here to go over. Make the play on the under.
02-29-20	Kansas v. Kansas State UNDER 131.5	Top	62-58	Win	100	5 h 51 m	Show
The Kansas Jayhawks are a successful team every year because they have the ability and willingness to defend. This allows this team to win on the road and it has shown up in the scores of their road games. Over their last 99 road games they are 66-29-4 ATS to the under. They have not allowed any team to score more than 63 points against them on the road this season, leading to a 10-0 ATS mark to the under on the road. Additionally, the Kansas offense averages 79ppg on the season at home and just 67.8ppg on the road. This has led to 21ppg less scoring on the road. Kansas St. allows just 61.6pph at home on the season. Make the play on the under.
02-28-20	Wizards v. Jazz OVER 232	Top	119-129	Win	100	9 h 15 m	Show
The Washington Wizards have no regard on the defensive end of the court. They love to run and shoot, and play to outscore the opponent regardless of who they are. When they play on the road they are allowing 130ppg on the season. Put them in a high total of more than 229 points and they are 15-2 ATS to the over with an average of 251.1ppg scored beating the total by +16.88ppg. (11-0 ATS in their last 11. Make the play on the over.
02-25-20	Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 231	Top	108-97	Win	100	8 h 59 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 90-51 ATS, and the play is on the under.
02-24-20	Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 236.5	Top	123-139	Loss	-110	11 h 7 m	Show
Home teams that have a 46% or better field goal percentage on the season and are off a game where they made 12+ three point field goals, and playing to a very high total of 230 or more points are 82-57-2 ATS to the under. If their opponent also made 12+ three point field goals in iys last game they are 47-23 ATS failing to reach the total by -6.56ppg. Make the play on the under.
02-24-20	Bucks v. Wizards UNDER 241	Top	137-134	Loss	-108	10 h 37 m	Show
Home teams that have a 46% or better field goal percentage on the season and are off a game where they made 12+ three point field goals, and playing to a very high total of 230 or more points are 82-57-2 ATS to the under. If their opponent also made 12+ three point field goals in iys last game they are 47-23 ATS failing to reach the total by -6.56ppg. Make the play on the under.
02-22-20	LSU v. South Carolina OVER 155	Top	86-80	Win	100	9 h 47 m	Show
LSU is now 53-26-2 ATS to the over in its last 81 road games. That includes 7-1 this season where their road games have averaged 164.3ppg. Make the play on the over.
02-22-20	Massachusetts v. Fordham UNDER 124.5	Top	57-49	Win	100	6 h 9 m	Show
Trying to speed this Fordham team up at home is an improbable task. The Rams play great defense, and their methodical style, leads to low possession ugly games. The Rams are 90-69-5 to the under here, including 65-39-5 to the under most recently, and 11-3-1 this season. UMass is 8-1 to the under in their last 9 overall. Make the play on the under.
02-21-20	Suns v. Raptors OVER 228	Top	101-118	Loss	-110	10 h 14 m	Show
The Toronto Raptors saw their 15 game winning streak come to an end just prior to the All-Star break. They will begin the 2nd half at 40-15 on the season. The Raptors have piled up the points vs bad teams this season as they average 120.3ppg vs an opponent that is .400 or worse. That has led them to a 16-4 mark to the over in those 20 games. This game also fits a 90-48 ATS mark situation on the over. Make the play over the total in this one.
02-20-20	Nets v. 76ers OVER 216	Top	104-112	Push	0	12 h 49 m	Show
The NBA All-Star break is over, so is their anything in terms of a situation that has developed after the long layoff? Today we will take a look at a situation that has occurred the 1st game back from the All-Star game, apparently defense is not part of the mindset when we have this scenario: 1) 1st game after the All-Star break 2) Home favorite of more than -3 3) Winning percentage greater than .390 and less than .730 4) Since 1999 NBA0152: AASB and p:BASB and HF and line39 and WP1998SU:100-41 (7.69, 70.9%) ATS:74-66-1 (0.55, 52.9%) avg line: -7.1O/U:90-48-3 (5.56, 65.2%) avg Defense is obviously still on the break as these teams have crashed the total at a 65.2% rate covering 141 games. Tonight consider Philadelphia/Brooklyn OVER the total.
02-20-20	Troy State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 151.5	Top	60-90	Loss	-113	6 h 12 m	Show
Coastal Carolina and Troy both like to push the tempo and I expect these teams are going to put up some points tonight. Coastal Carolina is 16-9 to the over on the season and has allowed 75+ points in 8 straight games and 10 out of 11. Troy has allowed 76ppg in their last 12. A road team off of 3 straight losses by 6 or fewer points, facing an opponent coming off a game where both teams scored 80+ are 14-0-1 to the over as well. Make the play on the over.
02-19-20	Samford v. Mercer OVER 149	Top	66-106	Win	100	10 h 36 m	Show
Samford has allowed 81ppg in their last 69 games on the road. That has led them to a 46-20 mark to the over. Make the play on the over.
02-18-20	Northwestern v. Maryland UNDER 130.5	Top	67-76	Loss	-123	9 h 42 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 60-43 to the under. Make the play on the under.
02-18-20	Oklahoma State v. West Virginia OVER 135	Top	47-65	Loss	-109	8 h 59 m	Show
W. Virginia has shot the ball woefully bad in their last 3 games at 62-191. That is just 32.5% from the field. Kansas and Baylor may have played a role in some of that a pair of elite defensive teams. What it has done is set them up in this game for a strong over situation. Home teams that have shot 35% or less in at least 3 straight games are 65-26-3 to the over if the posted total is fewer than 141 points. Make the play on the over.
02-16-20	All Star LeBron v. All Star Giannis UNDER 306.5	Top	157-155	Loss	-105	10 h 51 m	Show
I generally do not weigh in on the NBA All-Star game as it has become a defenseless dunk fest. The rules this year are completely different. Each quarter is for charity with the winner of each quarter receiving 100k for their charity. The final quarter will be played without a clock. The game will end like this. Whatever the score is after 3 quarters, there will be 24 points added to the team that leads after 3 quarters, and when that total score is reached, the game ends. EXAMPLE: The West leads 110-105 going into quarter 4. Add 24 to the 110 and the game will be won by the first team that reaches 134. (110+24). This new format means each team will likely play competitive basketball at least in the final 4 minutes of each of the 1st 3 quarters, and all of the 4th quarter. That is 24 minutes of real basketball potentially. It also means that the 4th quarter is going to be very low scoring. It is conceivable that the team that is leading wins the 4th quarter 24-14 for a 38 point quarter. The last 8 NBA All-Star games has averaged 337 total points. If you strip down a 4th quarter that will likely play out to 50 points or less, as opposed to 84, that is at least 34 fewer points off that average, as well as 12 competitive minutes in the first 3 quarters, that should negate significantly more points. I see this as a great opportunity on the UNDER. This is a real play and on the record: NBA All-STAR GAME UNDER 304.5 -105
02-16-20	Missouri State v. Indiana State OVER 134	Top	71-58	Loss	-109	7 h 2 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 142-89-1 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over.A and total < 140 and p:CW and p:margin >= 20 and op:AL and op:margin
02-16-20	Duquesne v. Fordham UNDER 122.5	Top	59-54	Win	100	5 h 21 m	Show
The Fordham Rams are one of the worst offensive teams in the country shooting at just 38% for the season. That has been even worse in conference games where they are shooting a dreadful 36.6%. Their slowdown methodical pace has led to just 52.6ppg. This has been going on for awhile and at home the Rams are now 64-39-5 to the under in their last 108 on home hardwood. The 1st meeting this season saw just 114 total points scored, and not much has changed. Make the play on the under.
02-15-20	Colorado v. Oregon State UNDER 136	Top	69-47	Win	100	12 h 11 m	Show
Colorado is coming into this game off a loss at Oregon, and will be hungry to overturn the bad feeling. that game played in the 120s and I would expect a similar path for this game. Colorado has an elongated track record of getting after it on the road on the defensive end where their last 104 road games have produced a 68-36 mark to the under (6-1 this year). That mark in conference games is 53-27 to the under. Oregon St. has gone 6 straight games without producing total points that would go over this total. Make the play on the under.
02-11-20	Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 232	Top	105-116	Win	100	12 h 58 m	Show
NBA VERY GOOD TEAMS = UNDER: Everyone likes to watch a game between a pair of very good teams. When it comes time for such a game in the NBA, the defense, which is often absent from most NBA games often takes center stage. Today in the newsletter we will take a look at how that plays out. There is a bias in such games in the NBA as we take a look at total results when both teams are .600 or better, with a home favorite: WP >= 60 and o:WP >= 60 and HFSU:1855-912 (5.37, 67.0%) ATS:1412-1299-56 (0.02, 52.1%) avg line: -5.3O/U:1265-1449-53 (-0.66, 46.6%) avg total: 197.5 We see the UNDER is a blind winner with a super sample size of over 2700 games. We also see that when these games feature a high total it gets stronger: WP >= 60 and o:WP >= 60 and HF and total >= 222SU:109-55 (5.95, 66.5%) ATS:79-80-5 (-0.26, 49.7%) avg line: -6.2O/U:62-95-7 (-2.75, 39.5%) avg total: 227.6 This goes live tonight in Houston as the Celtics invade. Consider the UNDER in this contest.
02-08-20	Lakers v. Warriors UNDER 224.5	Top	125-120	Loss	-110	12 h 34 m	Show
The scoring has steadily risen in the NBA over the past several years, and there are some tendencies developing because of it. It has also become a league of super teams, such as the Lakers and some really bad teams like Golden St. What has happened in these ultra elite teams vs poor teams is the scoring is held down.WP >= 80 and WP < 100 and o:WP < 33.3 and total > 210 and season > 2014SU:41-5 (12.80, 89.1%) ATS:19-26-1 (-0.30, 42.2%) avg line: -13.1O/U:12-32-2 (-5.72, 27.3%) avg total: 222.7That also shows this subset when the bad team is even worse than bad: WP >= 80 and WP < 100 and o:WP < 25 and total > 210 and season > 2014SU:18-2 (14.10, 90.0%) ATS:9-11-0 (0.90, 45.0%) avg line: -13.2O/U:1-18-1 (-12.20, 5.3%) avg total: 222.6 Make the play on the UNDER.
02-08-20	Kentucky v. Tennessee UNDER 131.5	Top	77-64	Loss	-105	3 h 18 m	Show
Tennessee is a tough place to play and this team has been impossible to score on at home where they have allowed 63.6ppg over their last 95 home games limiting opponents to 39% shooting. they have faced Kentucky here 5 times during this period and 4 of the 5 have played under the total as well. Kentucky has shot just 41% in these games and 28% from deep. These 95 games has seen Tennessee go 62-31-2 to the under. Male the play on the under.
02-07-20	Raptors v. Pacers OVER 218.5	Top	115-106	Win	100	7 h 24 m	Show
The Toronto Raptors have won 12 straight games, the last coming from a 19 point deficit against this same Indiana team. It has been an offensive explosion as the Raptors have scored 120.6ppg in the streak. That has led to another streak, as they are 8-3-1 to the over as well. Indiana has been piling up the points as well, with 12 of their last 17 eclipsing the total. This game also plays into a situation that is 166-88 ATS to the over as well. Make the play on the over.
02-06-20	CS Sacramento v. Weber State UNDER 125	Top	66-70	Loss	-110	12 h 34 m	Show
Sacramento St. is 11-9 on the season, and this team has been taking the air out of the ball for quite some time. They allow just 55.9ppg on the road this season and overall they are now 52-23 to the under in their last 75 road games. Weber St. has a string basketball history but not this year as they are 8-14. Make the play on the under.
02-06-20	Georgia Southern v. Louisiana-Monroe OVER 138	Top	67-65	Loss	-109	10 h 27 m	Show
Georgia Southern likes the uptempo and average 76.2ppg on the season. They played UL Monroe earlier in the season to their lowest scoring game where just 123 total points were scored. That has led to a total 5 points lower than that previous game, and I don't expect a repeat tonight. UL Monroe is a huge over team at home where the over is 39-12 in their last 51 at home. Make the play on the over.
02-06-20	Stetson v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 119.5	Top	65-62	Loss	-110	10 h 43 m	Show
This Florida Gulf Coast team at 7-17 is a far cry from Andy Enfield's Dunk City team that gave many fits in the NCAA Tournament several years ago. The team struggles for offense, but does one thing well and that is defend. Stetson ar 12-12 is cut from a similar cloth as they struggle offensively and defend well. Florida Gulf Coast is 36-13 to the under in its last 49 home games. Make the play on the under.
02-05-20	Cavs v. Thunder OVER 221	Top	103-109	Loss	-110	10 h 25 m	Show
The Cleveland Cavs have dropped 11 straight games at home, and start to be on watch as the NBA record for the most consecutive home losses is 19. Defense has been just a rumor for this team as they have allowed more than 125ppg in their last 6 at home. Overall the Cavs are 18-3-1 ATS to the over in their last 22 contests. Oklahoma City is a food shooting team and an NBA team that shoots 46% or better on the season facing a team that allowed 55% or more in its last game are 522-437-12 to the OVER. (253-209-5 at home). Thunder piling up the points in their last 9 games as a home favorite at 8-1 to the over with an average totals score of 236.9. Make the play on the over.
02-02-20	49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5	Top	20-31	Win	100	32 h 48 m	Show
DEEBO SAMUEL MVP +2500 (1/2 of 1 UNIT) >> >> I always shy away from the QB's in this game, as it is the logical choice and the value is usually not there. that typically means I am on a long shot. i don't just like to choose a long shot on a whim, but on value so I will make the case for Deebo Samuel of the 49ers here. First, the 49ers have barely passed the ball at all in the post-season so the value is enriched as Samuel will not be on most bettors radar. He is on mine. The Niners were not sure what they had in Samuel early in the season, and his use was limited. Through 9 weeks he had 22 receptions for just 227 yards, or just over 10 yards a catch. he had just 1 catch for 30+ yards, and scored 1 TD. He also had 5 rushing attempts for 37 yards. Then starting in week 10 the Niners started to realize he had something to add to their attack. from week 10 on he caught 35 passes for 575 yards, or 16.5 yds. per catch, a quantum leap. he had 4 catches for 30+ yards and added 3 TDs. Since week 13 the 49ers wanted him to get more touches and he ran the ball 9 times for 122 yards. he had 4 runs of 20+ yards, and 2 TDs. despite the 49ers pretty much running their way to the Super Bowl he caught more balls, for more yards than any other receiver. he also ran the ball 3 times for 49 yards. When I make an MVP choice, I like players that can impact a game multiple ways (running and receiving in this case). I think the 49ers have so much to look out for that Samuel could become an under the radar part of the game plan, as he has taken on an expanded role late in the season and has delivered. > ********************************************************************************************************************************************** > The rest of my Super Bowl props are all based on FGs. I have more detailed information on this than anyone would ever expect. It is because I had the foresight to track everything in this area for every Super Bowl, and the data I didn't have I added as I got older. These are some extremely powerful props based on FGs. I only consider the last 45 years. I have done so because the goal posts were moved in 1974 to the back of the end-zone which changed things. Here we go: > > UNDER 3.5 MADE FGs (Both teams) 3.5 -120 > > The last 45 Super Bowls have topped 3,5 just 14 of 45 years (31.1%) Huge value > ********************************************************************************************************************************** > UNDER 4.5 MADE FGs (Both teams) 4.5 -240 > > There have been 5 or more made FGs in just 3 of the last 45 Super Bowls (6.6%) EXTREME VALUE! > ************************************************************************************************************************************ > UNDER 5.5 MADE FGs (Both teams) 5.5 -650 > > THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED 0-45! > ************************************************************************************************************************************ > LONGEST MADE FG 47.5 YARDS UNDER -130 > > There has been just 6 Super Bowls with a FG longer than 47 yards. HUGE VALUE! > ********************************************************************************************************************************** > TOTAL COMBINED MADE FG YARDS (Both teams) UNDER 122.5 -110 > > Only 12 of 45 Super Bowls have topped this number (26.6%) TREMENDOUS VALUE! > ******************************************************************************************************************************** > BOTH TEAMS WILL RECORD A MADE FG OF 33 OR MORE YARDS? NO -110 > This has occurred in just 14 of 45 Super Bowls (31.1%) HUGE VALUE > ****************************************************************************************************************************** IMPORTANT NOTE****** When betting money line odds please remained disciplined! For example on the prop that is -650, that doesn't mean to bet -650 to win 100 (if your unit size is 100.00). It means bet 100 to win 15.38. Don't get greedy thinking these are guaranteed to win, they are not! What I can guarantee which you can see is these are heavyweight advantaged props, but it is still one game and anything can happen! Whatever your unit size, stick with betting 1 unit. betting is a continuous of scraping a few dollars here and there, and suddenly when you look down, those few dollars start to add up instead of disappearing. STAY DISCIPLINED PLEASE! ************************************************************************** HIGHEST SCORING HALF: 2ND -155 There has been a long history of Super Bowl games starting slowly. It seems that each team takes a look at how they are being defended early in the game before they open things up. The total points scored in the 1st quarter of 53 Super Bowl games is just 439 total points. that has led to the 2nd half outscoring the first half 1263-1142. The last 21 Super Bowls has seen the 2nd half outscore the 1st half to a record of 16-4-1. Like the odds here. The 2nd half is 8-2-1 in this when the total has been 50+ and 18-6-1 if the total has been 47+. Make the play on the 2nd half being the higher scoring half. ***************************************************************************************************************************************** HIGHEST SCORING QUARTER UNDER 21 -155 Overall there has been just 16 of 53 Super Bowls that saw more than 21 points scored in a quarter. That is just 30% if all games. The next thing to look at is the early years of the Super Bowl that had a lot of low scoring games, or at least by the posted totals the games were anticipated to be lower scoring. prior to Super Bowl 28 there was just 1 game with a posted total of 50+ so if we start from there and look at games from Super Bowl 28 forward we get a better idea on this. There have since been 10 Super Bowls with a posted total of 50+. just 2 of those saw more than 21 points scored in a quarter between both teams. make the play on the under. ***************************************************************************************************************************************** LOWEST SCORING QUARTER UNDER 3.5 +140: There has been 34 times out of the 53 Super Bowls that saw the lowest scoring combined score come in at 3 or fewer points or 64.2% of the time. It isn't just because the games were lower scoring in the early years, as one might expect. The fact is in the last 21 Super Bowls it has occurred 13 times or 62% of the time, including 5 of the last 7 times the total was 50+. Getting plus odds on this shows value. ************************************************************************************************************************************* TEAM THAT SCORES LAST WINS THE GAME YES -240: This is one of the best values of all. The Yes is 18-2 the last 20 years, 27-5 in the last 32 years and 33-7 the last 40 years. needless to say the odds makers swung and missed on this one. ********************************************************************************************************************************************** PLAY KC/SF UNDER 54.5 -110 Enjoy the game!
02-01-20	Samford v. Wofford OVER 147	Top	56-80	Loss	-110	11 h 53 m	Show
Samford at 8-15 heads on the road where they have been mostly defenseless. They are 45-18 to the over in their last 63 on the highway. They are allowing 88ppg in their last 13 games overall and 93.1ppg in their last 7 on the road. Make the play on the over.
01-30-20	Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 135	Top	68-72	Loss	-110	13 h 15 m	Show
Mick Cronin had a trademark at Cincinnati. His teams played hard physical and ugly games and were tenacious on the defensive end. While he hasn't had time yet to get his type of players into the program, he will have some help tonight. Colorado has gone a decade of playing the type of game Cronin loves, physical and ugly as the Buff's are 66-35 to the under over the last 10+ years on the road. (4-0 this year). This one looks ugly, make the play on the under.
01-30-20	North Dakota v. IUPU Ft Wayne OVER 144.5	Top	68-72	Loss	-109	10 h 3 m	Show
I've not been a proponent of team trends over the years. The main reason is the team trends tend to mostly be based on small sample sizes. Essentially what I am saying is 12-1 ATS, or 16-2 ATS pretty much always turn out to be variance. While variance can be present with any sample size, it diminishes in probability with larger sample sizes. I've always tried to hold ground with a sample size of 100 or more games. That pretty much precludes most team trends. Today in the newsletter we will look toward a team trend that is under the radar for a couple or reasons. It is a team trend with a sample size of 162 games, and it is a small or obscure school on the NCAA Basketball landscape, so it does not draw any attention. North Dakota games have averaged about 150 points over the period and I think there is a small school bias and an up tempo style that allows for the value. Odds makers seem to be reserved in posting large totals for a team that should not score as consistently as this one does. here is a look: NDAKOT is 96-64-2 OU (3.60 ppg) since Mar 04, 2014.SU:84-101 (0.32, 45.4%) ATS:80-80-6 (-0.05, 50.0%) avg line: 3.4O/U:96-64-2 (3.60, 60.0%) avg total: 147. They are 60% to the over in a 162 game period. They are 63-31-1 OVER to a total of 137.5 to 152.5. Consider N. Dakota/Purdue Fort Wayne OVER the total tonight.
01-29-20	Evansville v. Illinois State UNDER 134.5	Top	66-77	Loss	-110	11 h 21 m	Show
Illinois St. and Evansville have both struggled this season. The Purple Aces are just 9-12 on the season while Illinois St. is a woeful 6-14. these teams combined to bring back just 4 starters this season. These teams have combined to produce just 110.7ppg combined vs common opponents this year (6 games), which may be telling tonight. Evansville has played 6 straight to the under, while Illinois St. is 93-46 to the under in its last 139 games. Make the play on the UNDER.
01-25-20	Mavs v. Jazz OVER 224.5	Top	107-112	Loss	-114	7 h 16 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 401-280 ATS and the play is on the OVER.
01-25-20	LSU v. Texas OVER 140.5	Top	69-67	Loss	-115	5 h 29 m	Show
LSU is 14-4 and they like to get the ball up and down the court as they are averaging 80.6ppg. This team has been doing this for a long time especially on the road where they are now 50-25-2 to the over in their last 77 games. (4-0 this year so dar). Make the play on the over.
01-24-20	Nuggets v. Pelicans OVER 229.5	Top	113-106	Loss	-102	11 h 6 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 401-279 ATS and the play is on the over.
01-23-20	Liberty v. North Florida UNDER 131	Top	70-71	Loss	-109	10 h 56 m	Show
The basketball program at Liberty College has taken off, and still flying under the radar. The Flames are a remarkable 19-1 on the season and a win tonight would mean 4 straight 20 win seasons. They silently won 29 games last season. The Flames do it with the defense allowing just 36% shooting and a woeful 28% from deep. They also take the air out of the ball as their games average 102 shots per contest (similar to the old Princeton teams), but without the 110 or so totals those used to generate. Since the start of 2014 the Flames are 55-25-1 to the under in all games. The bloom has not come off the rose yet as they are 13-5 to the under this year. Consider Liberty vs N. Florida under the total tonight.
01-22-20	76ers v. Raptors OVER 215.5	Top	95-107	Loss	-109	7 h 37 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 164-84 ATS and the play is on the over.
01-22-20	Thunder v. Magic UNDER 210	Top	120-114	Loss	-106	6 h 28 m	Show
This game fits a situation that is 275-176 ATS, and the play is on the under.
01-22-20	Samford v. Furman OVER 150.5	Top	78-101	Win	100	10 h 9 m	Show
Samford has been a defensive liability on the road where they have allowed 80.8ppg in their last 62 games. This has led to an under the radar mark of 44-18 to the over in the 62 games, and 18-4 to the over in their last 22. Make the play on the over.
01-22-20	Western Carolina v. Mercer OVER 153	Top	79-85	Win	100	10 h 4 m	Show
W. Carolina allows 82.2ppg on the road in their last 45 games leading to a 31-14 mark to the over. That has been 27-7 to the over with a posted total from greater than 137 and less than 168 covering the total by nearly 10 points per contest. Make the play on the over.

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