Sports Picks & Predictions

The Charlotte Bobcats were offensively dead to start the season, and through 4 games, not considering overtime, they averaged under 75 points a game. They have begun to find a semblance of offense, and have now averaged over 90 in their last 3, while allowing 90 as well. The Pistons once a methodical defensive team, have some different parts, and allowed 100 on back to back nights already this season something rarely seen in Detroit, but it is a new era. Bobcats playing 7-1 to the over on the road vs a team with a winning home record, while Pistons 10-3 to the over as a favorite of up to 4.5. I'm going OVER in this one

The Pacers have played 4 straight to the under, but that is going to change tonight with the run and gun Golden St. Warriors hitting the floor. Golden St. put up 146 in their last game on the floor vs Minnesota which is only going to reinforce their willingness to run here. The Warriors last trip to Indiana resulted in a game that featured 247 points scored, and the return trip at Golden St. the game featured 237 points scored. Two years ago these teams played to a 242 point total in Indiana as well, that makes 4 straight between these two in Indiana over the total, and 6 of the last 7 in the series. Over gets the call here.

The Chicago Bulls who were racing up and down the court in the playoffs last year vs the Celtics are a different team this season, as they have slowed down the pace considerably, and don't have been Gordon to create a shot as the shot clock winds down and it has shown up in the scoring column. The Bulls have not reached the century mark through their first 6 games, coming no closer than 93. This after averaging 107ppg in the playoffs last year, and scoring 100+ in 12 of their last 15 during the regular season. The Nuggets are off a huge 25 point loss. This game fits an UNDER system that keys off certain teams off a loss by 20 points or more that has been followed by an under 72.9% of the time with 60 games in the database. I'm playing this one to go under the total.

When I started looking at this game, it would appear that the Ohio, U. Bobcats were getting their defense together, but a closer look reveals something. The last 4 games they have allowed their 4 lowest point totals of the season, with a total of 51 points scored against them. Looking at the 4 games, the top offense was ranked #86 out of 120 teams. Their opening 4 games were vs teams all ranked offensively from 36-48 in the country, so Buffalo at #35 will be the highest ranked offense they have faced all season. While against the 5 cupcake offense they have played averaged just 286.8 yards per game, and 12.2ppg, the other 4, all below, but around what Buffalo's offense is capeable of, they allowed 390 yards a game, and 31ppg!!!! The Buffalo defense has been just average this season, so not looking for them to shutdown the Bobcats here either. This one set to low, going with the OVER here.

You really have to question a Detroit Lion offense that was shutout at Green Bay, and followed that up with just 10 points against a horrible St. Louis defense. The Seahawks defense can't hold down a good offense, but they have already pitched 2 shutouts against weak offensive teams in Jacksonville, and St. Louis, and I don't see the Lions moving the ball much here. The Lions defense isn't that good, but against a poor Seattle offense they should be able to hold their own, as the Seahawks have scored less than 20 points in 5 of their last 6 games, this after scoring 21 or less in 12 of their 16 games last year. Lions have played 7 of their last 10 to the under vs a team with a losing home record, and the Seahawks have played under in 4 of their last 5 at home. I like this one to stay under the total.

The Houston Texans could not stop the run, and that looked to be their demise, and another disappointing .500 record, and no playoff appearance. Suddenly noone is running on the Texans, as in 3 consecutive weeks they have held a trio of pretty good backs, Bensen,Lynch, and Gore to a combined 119 yards, less than 40 a game. The improvements on the defensive side of the ball, have led to 4 of the Texans last 5 games, playing under the total. Last week the Niners, on the road, held the Colts to 0 TD's for 3 quarters, and just 1 for the game. What has been lost in the Colts 7-0 start, is the defense, which has allowed 17 points or less in 6 of them, and 12 points or less in 4 of them. The Texans offense has never translated the same way on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 to the under. While the last 8 in this series have all gone over, pushing this total up, the faces of these teams is changing, and I'm going with the under here.

The Washington Redskins have been a big disappointment, and the offense has not produced a game scoring more than 17 points all season. That is dispite playing 5 games against teams, that were winless at the time they met them, not even counting the 0-0 Giants in game 1 of the season. The Redskins have faced 4 of the worst defenses in points allowed in Kansas City,St. Louis,Tampa Bay, and Detroit. All 4 of those teams allow 26ppg or more, and average allowing 28ppg. The Redskins have scored a total of 45 points or 11.25ppg in those 4 games. That is 17ppg less than an average team would score. Despite of the offensive inefficiencies, the Skins defense, which is on the field way too much, and with poor field position, they are allowing just 17.6ppg. No team has scored more than 27 against them. The Falcons have played 3 unders at home because their defense is much better in Atlanta. They have allowed less than 14 a game at home. Washington has now gone 21-6-1 in their last 28 as a dog of 3.5-10 to the under. The Falcons in the same type of game, only as the favorite of 3.5-10 have played 9-2 to the under in their last 11 in that same role. Combined these teams in this roll, where the line is between 3.5-10 one as a dog, the other as the favorite, have produced a 30-8-1 mark to the under. UNDER gets the call in this one.

If you look at this Navy team, they run the ball over 90% of the time. That means the defense doesn't get a lot of practice time vs a team that spreads the field, and puts the ball in the air a lot, and they tend to struggle against high efficiency passing games. Their worst defensive performance of the season came this season against SMU, when they allowed 35 points. What will the high powered passing attack of the Irish do to this defense? Notre Dame QB Jimmy Claussen is having a Hiesman Trophy type year, as he is throwing for 9 yards an attempt, totalling 2,318 yards, 18 TD passes and just 2 INT's. The Irish have topped the 30 point mark 5 times despite a tough schedule, and they should be well into the 30s here if not topping 40. Navy does one thing, they run the ball, and should be able to score on an at best average Irish defense. Navy has scored 20+ against the Irish in 5 of the last 7 seasons, and have averaged 22.2ppg, and against the current senior class of the Irish, the last 3, they have scored 26.3ppg. This one should get enough scoring from both sides to easily push this one over the total, and I'll go 3 units on the over here.

The Charlotte Bobcats are an under bettors dream, as they have scored under 80 points in 3 of their 4 games, with the other one ending in OT, as they scored 82 before the OT sessions. Teams that score under 80 points a game for 2 straight, have played under a total set at 180 or lower 63.2% of the time. The Atlanta Hawks are not an offensive team, and if you look at their playoff resume from a year ago, it is a true indicator of what to expect in this one tonight. The Bobcats can't score, but they do defend tough, especially at home, and I look for this one to go under the total.

East Carolina has been a giant killer at home, as they have 6 wins vs the BCS Conference teams since 2003, and as a home dog of 10.5+ they have shown a lot of bite at 4-0, and are also 10-3 ATS as a home dog in their last 13 overall. The key to this one is going to be what has created a 2 game losing streak for Virginia Tech, and that is converting on 3rd down. The Hokies are ranked in the bottom half of all FBS teams in converting 3rd down attempts at under 40% for the season, but recently, in their 2 losses that number has slipped to 35%. East Carolina has held their last 3 opponents to a conversion rate on 3rd down to just 33%, and when the the 3rd down situation is greater than 2 yards the Pirates have responded with a fantastic 28% conversion rate by opponents. The morale has to be down for the Hokies, as they went from ranked #4 in the country, and a BCS Bowl likely candidate, to no hope, and with this being a non-conference game, that now means very little to them, it is a huge game under the TV spotlight for the Pirates, and they have proven to come up big in this spot. The Hokies will also be playing their 11th Thursday game under the TV spotlight, and that has been a huge winner for the under as the Hokies have gone 11-0 to the under and the games have averaged scoring in the low 30s. UNDER gets the call.

This game has a lot of value on the over and let's take a look at similar games played over the last 17 years. Eastern Michigan comes into this game at 0-8, and when an 0-8 team is on the road as a +20 or more favorite, they are 10-4 ATS but at the same time their games have averaged 51.1ppg in combined points. Northern Illinois comes in at 5-3, and teams that are 5-3 are in a game that is ready to qualify them for Bowl eligibility, and when they play as a home favorite of -20 or more they have averaged scoring 47.3ppg since 1983 in 20 contests! The average points scored has been an astounding 60.82ppg. Combining the 34 games, between similar occurances over the last 17 years and we have games that have averaged 57ppg. That is more than a TD and conversion over the posted total here, and I'll ride the value and play this one over the total.

The Bowling Green Falcons are one of the top passing offenses in the country, as they have a QB in Tyler Sheehan who will be making his 34th consecutive start. Sheehan has thrown for 8,743 yards, and 58 TD's, and the Falcon passing attack is averaging a nation's 4th best 341 yards per game, which has increased to 401 yards a game in October. The problem for the Falcons is they have no complimentary running game, as noone with more than 1 carry is averaging even 4 yards an attempt. The average is 2.41 and just 65 yards a game. It has led to 23 sacks, and numerous stalled drives, as it makes it difficult to score in the red-zone when the field gets short. The passing yards would indicate a teams scoring big, but the Falcons have played half their schedule scoring 20 or less, and the Bulls have a top 45 pass defernse, so they can at least slow the Falcons. Bowling Green simply can't stop the run, allowing nearly 6 yards an attempt, so the Bulls will be doing a lot of running, one to keep the Falcon offense off the field, but 2 it is the best way to attack the Falcon defense. Here is something very revealing about this game. There are 42 teams in NCAAF that average over 400 yards of offense a game, and both these teams are on that list of 42 teams. The 42 teams average 32.3ppg. There are only 3 teams of the 42 taht average under 27ppg, and both of them are in this game! Bowling Green at 23.6ppg, and Buffalo at 23.1ppg. Bowling Green has played 7 straight to the under as a road dog, and 9-1 overall in their last 10 as a dog. Bulls are at 4 straight to the under at home vs a road team with a losing record. I like this one to go under the total.

The Charlotte Bobcats have been anything but offensive, and they have failed to top 82 points in 3 straight games in regulation. The Nets have shown no ability to stop anyone, allowing over 104ppg. This one sets up perfectly, as the Bobcats offensive woes, have led to a total that is really trimmed down tight. The Bobcats were posted to a total in the 170s a total of 12 times a year ago, and played 7-4-1 to the over, and down the stretch 4 of the last 5 went over. This one is based on a huge system of mine, that feeds on 3pt shooting, and with over 1900 games based on just a single condition, it has produced 57.1% to the OVER. I will follow and play this one over the total.

What has to be the anti-Superbowl, the St. Louis Cardinals, winless in 17 straight games, face the 1 win Lions, who broke a 19 game winless streak of their own. The Lions offense, and team is riddled with injuries, and as it is they have topped the 20 point mark just 1 time this season, without the aid of a defensive score. The Rams only visit to the plus side of 20 has been a 27 point output in week 17 last year, when the Falcons used all subs for most of the game. This one doesn't figure to be very offensive either as both QB's have poor passer ratings, and the offenses are amongst the wrost in the league. The Lions have produced 5 straight unders after their bye week, as well as a 67-32 under situation, that becomes active in this game. UNDER gets the call for 4 units.

The Seattle Seahawks have gottn 2 shutouts from their defense this year when they have been healthy and rank 12th in the NFL, but I think they are much better than that. They had problems against San Francisco when they were missing DT Brandon Mebane, and had problems in the 2 games without CB Josh Wilson, but when they have been defensively in tact, they have performed as a top 5 defense. The Cowboys certainly can move the chains, but Seattle has the defense to keep this one withing single digits. The last 2+ years Dallas has had a lot of problems beating a double digit line, as they are just 3-7 ATS. The Seahawks are now 21-10-1 ATS after suffering a loss by 2 TD's or more. I think Seattle will hold this Dallas offense enough to allow this one to go by the way of 5 of the last 6 in this series, under, and Dallas, vs a team with a losing record has been 47-22-3 to the under, as well as 16-6-2 under at home vs losing teams. UNDER for 4 units.

The Phillies and the Yankees have scored a grand total of 11 runs in 2 games, and now we move down in the rotation, putting the offenses in a better suited position to score some runs. Cole Hamels has not had a great year, and in his last 6 starts the opponents have racked up 34 runs, or close to 6 a contest. The Phillies scored 4 off Andy Pettitte in their matchup earlier in the season. The biggest thing here is we have 2 teams that are at their best vs lefthand pitching. The Yankees are 37-15 vs lefthanders in their last 52, and the Phillies are 20-7 at home vs lefthanders. The Yankees have played 26-16 over in road games in the 2nd half of the season, and the over is 23-6 during the 2nd half of the season for the Phillies vs an AL team that averages over 5.2 runs a game. I lime this one to go over the total for 5 units.

Last night's pitching matchup had me on the under, but tonight I will go in a different direction, and play the over. The Phillies rocked AJ Burnett for 5 runs and 3 HR's when they met this season, and it was when Burnett was pitching well, off 6 innings of shutout baseball vs a tough Ranger lineup. Burnett has 2 problems here, he walks too many, and allows too many HR's, 25 on the season, a dangerous mix vs a patient hard hitting Philly team, that like the Yanks, as we saw last night, can reach the seats in many spots in the lineup. The Yankees have seen enough of Pedro to understand what he does, and the difference here is the live fastball is gone, so Martinez will nibble at the strike-zone and the Yankees are patient, and don't swing at bad pitches, forcing him in the hitting zone, where the big bats can do damage. Phillies have played over to a mark of 18-6-2 in their last 26, and 3 of those unders were with Cliff Lee on the mound! One of these pitchers at least is gonna get lit up, and I like this one to go over the total.

The North Carolina Tar Heels bring a big defense to this game, but the problem has been moving the ball on offense, and going into Blacksburg on a week night against a rugged defense, I can make a case that the Heels will not find the end-zone. The Hokies gave up points in 2 games, the opener against a top rated Alabama team, and against the triple-option attack of Georgia Tech. I discount the Duke game as a sandwich game between Miami,Fla and Boston College. The Hokies have played the best defense at Lane Stadium over the last 21 played here than any home team in the country. The last 21 games played here the most an opponent has scored has been 21, and 18 have scored 14 or less. Teams that bring no offense to the table often don't make it to 10, as half the opponents failed to reach the 10 point mark vs the Hokies on their turf. Under the lights on a week night will make them that much more focused. The Heels can bring some defense themselves, as despite their offensive woes, and forced on the field for long periods, they rank 8th in the country allowing 266 yards a game. I can see North Carolina getting shutout here, as the Hokies allow under 10 points a game here in their last 21, and allowing for a sub-par, less than average offense to reach that 10 total, then that means the Hokies have to score 34 against the 8th ranked defense in the country, and I like the chances of this one going under the total.

The Oklahoma City Thunder open the season at home vs the Sacramento Kings. The Kings like to get the ball up and down the court, and finished in the bottom 5 in the NBA in points allowed, and were one of just 5 NBA teams that allowed 106ppg or more. Looking at how Oklahoma City fared vs these teams is quite revealing. The Thunder played 15 games vs the 5 teams in the NBA that allowed 106 points or more on the season a year ago, and those games averaged 220.1ppg! That is a full 14 points beyond the total set for this one. The 15 games saw 12 finsih above the total posted here, or 80%. The Kings played 24 games vs teams that allow as many or more points a game than the Thunder, and those 24 games produced an average of 218.9ppg! That is 13 points above this posted total. I like this one to go OVER the total.

The New York Yankees will host the defending champion Philadelphia Phillies tonight at the Stadium in the Bronx. The Yankees have gotten everything, and more out of CC Sabathia, who has led them to 14 straight wins, not counting the season finale tune-up vs the Rays. Discounting that tuneup, Sabathia has been untouchable in his last 5 starts, working 36.2 innings allowing just 22 hits, and opponents hitting .165 against him. The Phillies added Cliff Lee to their staff down the stretch, and he has stepped in to become the ace of the staff. Lee has worked 24.1 innings in the post-season allowing just 14 hits, and opponents have hit just .144 against him, and his ERA is a microscopic 0.74. The weather in New York tonight will play a role as well, as the winds will be blowing straight in from leftfield at 15+ MPH, making an already large side of the park, play bigger. Both these pitchers have a tendency to go 7+ innings per start, and with game one so critical, it shortens the pens to Lidge vs Mariano, and neither have been touched for much in the post-season. I like this one to go under the total.

This battle between East Carolina and Memphis is between two teams that are below average offensively. The Pirates are running the ball for just 3.7ypc vs teams that allow 4.1ypc, and pass for 6.1ypp, vs teams that allow 6.5ypp. Memphis is gaining just 5.2 yards per play vs teams allowing 5.6 yards per play. East Carolina scored 49 vs a Rice defense that ranks #116 out of 120 teams, and produced 29 against Appalachian St. , a school not even in the FBS. The remainder of the Pirates 5 games which most favorably compare to what they will face here, shows the Pirate offense has topped off at 21 points. memphis has had 2 big scoring games, one vs UTEP, ranked #117 out of 120 teams where they scored 35, catching UTEP off a huge emotional win over Houston, and the other vs non-FBS Tennessee Martin where they scored 41. The body of games most comparable to what they face here has seen Memphis top off at 16 points. When you take 2 teams that have prodcued their best offensive games, under similar competition at 21 and 16, and you have a total set in the high 40s, the only value to be found is on the under. Back that up with the fact that ECU has played under in 9 of their last 11 conference games, which include 5-0 on the road vs a losing team. Memphis has played 5-0-1 under in their last 6 after a good pass defense showing allowing less than 170 yars in their last game. This one stays under the total.

The Boston Celtics will open the season at Cleveland, in a game that could be a prelude to the NBA Eastern Conference finals. The Cavs have added Shaq to try to put them over the top, while the Celtics have added Rasheed Wallace, as an insurance policy to Kevin Garnett's balky knees. What the additions should do for each team is make already good defenses, better. The Celtics have been about defense, and when they play against the best, it is most visible. The C's on the road last year vs the top 10 NBA teams in winning percentage 12 times. Those 12 games saw under score the cash to the tune of a 10-1-1 mark. The Celtics were also 14-4 to the under playing on the road with a total in the 180s last year. These teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings in Cleveland to the under. I'm going with this one to finish under the total.

The New York Giants were completely humiliated by the New Orleans Saints. Dree Brrees picked apart the Giant secondary, and the Giants weren't able to pressure Brees, which was a big mistake. I expect them to learn from that game, and really put the heat on Curt Warner, who is basically a QB with a ball and chain around his leg, and unable to move from the pocket. Warner takes a lot of sacks, and since he has had problems with his thumb, throws a lot of interceptions, and I think the Giants come out breathing fire this week. The last 8 times the Giants gave up 29 points or more they have come back to allow their next opponent to score an average of just 11.8ppg! All 8 games played to the under! Arizona is an average offensive team this year ranked 16th in yards per game. Their defense is also very average ranking number 16. The most points scored in a Giants game after they allowed 29 points or more has been 46, and the average has been 35, and as I had mentioned before every single one of them went under the total, and I'm going under the total for this one.

The Cleveland Browns continue to struggle offensively. They scored 14 points last week, but 7 of those came when Josh cribbs returned a kick for 7. The Browns have now scored a paltry 4 offensive TD's in their last 12 games, by far the worst performing offense in NFL history.Cleveland QB's have been sacked 16 times, and they convert just 27.9% of third down situations, and average just 8.5ppg over their last 12. Their 2-headed QB's have a combined 49.32 passer rating, have yet to have a running back score a TD. The bottomline here is the Browns simply can't score, and the Packer defense, off a shutout will be brimming with confidence here. Speaking of Green Bay they fit an under system that has gone 54-25 68.4% to the UNDER that keys on teams allowing less than 10 points in their last game (obviously there is more to the system than just that). The Packers offensive line has allowed 25 sacks already, the most in the league, and Aaron Rodgers is a good QB, but he factors into it as well, as he simply holds the ball too long. The Browns struggles offensively has shown them playing under when the total is 41 or higher in 13 of their last 15 games. The Browns have also played under in 18 of their last 27 games. I like this one to go under the total.

The St. Louis Rams are doing the best they can to be the worst football team in the NFL. The Lions went the entire season without a win last year, on their way to 19 losses in a row. The Rams are closing in, as they have now lost 16 straight themselves. The offense has scored just 47 pints this season, or under 8 a game, and a total in the mid 40s requires 2 teams to score. The last 22 Rams game tell the story. The Rams offense has generated a grand total of 7 TD's from inside the 15 yard line. That is 0.3 per game! All the other scores have come from deep, where there was a blown coverage or fortunate big play, and even those don't come often. The average distance of those scores has been 37.1 yards! So this team doesn't have offensive problems, they have offensive nightmares. The Colts have a defense this year that ranks #7 in the league, and I doubt there will be much room for the Cards to operate here, and if this becomes the expected lopsided game, then the Colts aren't going to be putting up 35-40. What might surprise you is this Colts team, known for offense, has not topped the 35 point mark offensively in 24 games, and in fact when they have faced a double-digit pointspread, they average only 25.8ppg! They have played under in 9 of their last 12 after allowing 250 yards or less in their last game. I like this one to go under the total.

The UL Monroe Warhawks suffered a bad break, when they lost their QB last week to a thumb injury. Redshirt Freshman Cody Wells takes over, and the yards per pass dipped from Trey Revell's 8.0, down to 5.8. The Warhawks run a lot of option type offense, with the QB in charge of making a read, and now they have an inexperienced QB running an offense, that takes time to master. I expect the Warhawks to try and reduce the playbook, and play safer with the redshirt freshman at QB for the first time. Kentucky is off a huge win vs Auburn on the road, where they limited them to just over 300 yards, so the defense is coming up big. Kentucky also had 2 players go over 100 yards rushing, and have had trouble throwing the ball. I would expect the ground game to dominant on both sides in this one. The Wildcats bring the second longest non-conference winning streak in the country to this game, at 16, so they won't be a no-show here, and it is also Hall of Fame weekend. UL Monroe is a quick defensive team, and in his press conference Coach Rich Brooks expressed concerns about the UL Monro defense, that runs things his team has not seen this season. They play a 3 man front, with a lot of twisting, and stunting, with quick athletic linemen, and they are allowing under 100 yards a game, which has him concerned, for the offense. Both these teams like to run the ball, and both are just under 200 yards a game. Kentucky doesn't even have 1,000 yards passing on the season, while ULM will be using a redshirt freshmen in his first ever start. This one figures to be played on the ground, and I like this one to go under the total.

The Arkansas St. Red Wolves have played a very tough schedule, and it leaves a very talented offense under the radar as they have played Iowa and Nebraska, as well as both teams from the top of the conference in Troy, and UL Monroe. They now get a shot at home vs the worst defense in the country, Florida International. FIU is allowing 500 yards a game, and 36ppg. FIU could not score against the likes of Rutgers or Alabama, which skews their real numbers down, as overall against competition on their level, they have scored over 30 a game in each of the 4. This one doesn't look as offensive, as the team stats do, until you take a peak inside the numbers, and this one should be a shootout, with both teams putting up enough here to send this one over the total. I'll play this one to go over the total.

Looking at the numbers this Alabama team has put up in the SEC defensively are amazing. They have held 14 of their last 21 SEC opponents to 14 points or less, and just about half of them to 10 or less! They have out-scored their SEC foes by an average of 18ppg. The defense itself has allowed just 11.3ppg if you remove special teams, and turnovers for TD's. The same 21 opponents have run the ball for less than 65 yards 14 times as well. Tennessee comes in with some lofty offensive numbers piled up against some poor defenses, but when they played Florida, and UCLA (the best defenses they have seen this year), they have failed to produce much of anything. They combined for 28 points and just over 400 yards in those 2 games. They will get less here. Crompton 0 TD's and 5 INT's under 100 yards in both games. McElroy has had problems himself against some of the better defenses of late, and that is one thing Tennessee can do is play defense. These games are usually wars with 7 of the last 10 going under the total, and the defenses in this case are both ahead of the offenses. I'm going with the under here.

The Florida Seminoles are far removed from their glory days, where they were winning at least 10 games every season. Coach Bowden is feeling the heat, and just 2-4 on the season, and 0-3 in the ACC, is enough to realize this is not the same ilk Florida St. team. They are maligned for being a team that plays no defense, as they are allowing 28.2ppg, but I don't think the defense is as bad as the numbers look. There are 50 teams in NCAAF that score 29+ a game, and it just so happens that all 5 of the FBS teams Florida St. has played are on that list! Those teams combine to average 32.92ppg, so reshaping reality, as it collides with perception, reveals the Seminoles have actually been slightly better than average defensively in terms of points allowed, vs the teams they have played. North Carolina will come in here with the #3 ranked defense in the country. I don't think they are the 3rd best defense in the country, but they are very good regardless. They are quick to the ball, and there is no droppoff in the 2-deep on the defensive line, and they have 3 linebackers that run the 40 in 4.55. Florida St. can move the football in the air, but their biggest obstacle has been themselves, as they have already fumbled the ball, an alarming 17 times, losing 11 of them. This time, as was the case vs S. Florida, they will have a top notched defense to contend with as well. North Carolina may have a big defense, but they have 0 offense, and I mean 0. Their 3 games vs BCS teams has resulted in 22 points. They have gained just 91 rushing yards on 91 carries, and passed for just 505. Considering they have also been -6 in turnovers in the 3 games, that just makes the defense look that much better. This is a game of two turnover prone offenses, that often see drives stopped by themselves, one will be facing a great defense, the other a better defense than it looks. I have another angle in this game, on top of the game situation, and it is one of my strongest NCAAF angles of all. It is an under system that has remarkable accuracy. It is 39-7-3 to the under, or wins 84.8% of the time!!!...and it is active for this game. I will go with the under in this one.

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have led the nation in total yards on offense the last 2 seasons. This team is breaking in a new QB, and doesn't have the same weapons as they did over the last 2 seasons, and the second change is they are much better defensively than they have been in recent times. UTEP has a poor defense, but the reality is the Tulsa offense in terms of yards per play has matched the defenses yards allowed on the season, so they are an average offensive team, not a good or potent offensive team as many may think. UTEP's defense should respond tonight as 8 members are returning from Tulsa running it up, and hanging a 77 on the Miners. Intensified defense by UTEP, and a much more ordinary offense by Tulsa, and I look for this game to be much lower scoring than most realize. Tulsa has yet to play an over this season, as the oddsmakers take advantage of the public perception this team has created. Under gets the call here.

Looking at a team in the Broncos that has played 5 games, and has yet to allow anyone to score more than 20, and on the season allowing just 8.6ppg, one would expect the total to be in the 30s. There is a method to Mr. oddsmakers madness, he realizes a few things here. This will be the first time on the road for the Broncos vs a competent offense, as the Chargers are the 8th ranked team in points scored per game, and in my opinion, haven't even gotten started yet. This is a team scoring 25+ with Tomlinson and Sproles generating less than 3 yards a carry, and Phil Rivers way behind last years pace in TD's and yards. It also should be noted that the Broncos rank 8th in yards a game, but are just 19th in points scored, so the offense is performing much better than indicated, and I expect their points to spike, as well as their points allowed to spike. Teams that are road dogs off of 5 straight unders are 18-5 to the OVER in their next game. The Chargers in their last 13 at home as a favorite of 3.5-10 points vs an AFC opponent, have averaging scoring 34.5ppg! They have never scored under 20, and have scored 30+ in 9 of them. This series has seen 5 of the last 6 go over the total, and I like tonight's game to go over as well.

The biggest game of the season thus far will take place in New Orleans as the unbeaten Giants clash with the unbeaten Saints. These are two potent offenses that rank 2 & 3 in the NFL both balanced and both producing over 400 yards a game, and both averaging over 30 points a game. It is also a game that features the top 2 QB's in the NFC, and games like this usually carry a much higher rice than the 47 posted here. The Saints bring a 45-21-1 OVER mark into this game in their last 67 vs a team with a winning record, and 10-2-1 in their last 13 as a home favorite. The Giants have had a patsy schedule, and the only offense they have played against hung a 31 on them. I look for this one to soar over the total.52

The Tampa Bay Bucs are off to a horrid 0-5 start, and will face another struggling team in the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have failed to score over 20 points in any game this season, after doing so in 12 of their 16 games a year ago, so this is a much different team. The good news is the defense has gotten better each week allowing less points through all 4 weeks. The Bucs offense has managed a grand total of 27 points over the last 3 weeks and has been stopped cold all season. The Panthers have now played to the under in 14 of their last 20 after gaining less than 250 yards in their last game. This game looks like a battle of field position and FG's as neither has the offense to take advantage of the other's weaknesses. I'm playing this to go under the total.

The Mississippi St. Bull Dogs will meet the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders in a non conference battle. The Bull Dogs come in at 2-4, but have played a very difficult schedule, but the last time out held a high octane Houston offense to 31 points, and held Vandy to only a FG. The Bulldogs come into this one ranked just 73rd on defense, but when you consider they have played Houston the #1 ranked offense, Auburn the #5 ranked offense, and Georgia Tech the #24 ranked offense, they certainly have shown themselves very well. The Blue Raiders found themselves scoring in the 30s in 3 of their games, but to defenses with an average rank of 92. They won't be scoring 30 in this one. This is a classic case of deceptive numbers as the Bulldogs have played such potent offense, yet in the process have a higher defensive rank than an average team would have vs that caliber of offense, so the 73rd ranking is way off. They did not score a TD vs Clemson or Troy from inside the redzone, 2 long passes, and a fumble return, for a grand total of 21 points. I like this one to go under the total.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have played about the weakest schedule in the country, with 2 games vs teams not even in the FBS, and other out of conference games against Florida International and Maryland. Despite the easy schedule the Rutgers offense ranks in the middle of the NCAA offensive rankings, and they will struggle tonight vs a Pittsburgh defense that has already recorded 21 sacks on the season. The Knights don't have much of a running game, but I do expect their defense to play better than they did against Cincinnati. This game looks to be pretty lopsided, and I expect it to be much lower scoring than the total posted here, and I'm going with the under here.

The Ball St. Cardinals aren't even a shadow of the team that threatened to join the BCS party a year ago. The Cardinal offense is going nowhere, and ranks #115 out of 120 teams. Temple is an improving team, and won 4 MAC games in each of the last 2 years, and is off to a 2-0 start. Their offense is ranked just 84th, so we have 2 sluggish offenses here, while the Temple defense is ranked #53, and is considerably better than that if you take out the Penn St. game. They held E. Michigan, and Buffalo to a combined 25 points, and the rushing numbers were 59-149, while they also held them to a combined less than 6 yards per pass play. Ball St. will not threaten those numbers, their offense is very poor, and they have been sacked 15 times already. The Ball St. defense is not good, but their numbers are skewed by the fact they allowed 91 points to Toledo and Auburn, which both rank in the top 10 offensively. Their pther games they allowed22ppg. vs teams that would average similar to Temple offensively. I expect that Temple will get in the 20s here, but I clearly don't see Ball St. scoring much here, likely 17 tops, and I'm playing this one to go under the total

The Nebraska Cornhuskers will take on the Missouri Tigers in an important Big-12 matchup, as Missouri comes in 4-0 and Nebraska 1-3. It looked like Missouri was going to be better than expected with all the key offensive departures, when they opened vs Illinois, and put up 37 points. The problem is, Illinois has been a disappointment, and have a defense ranked #105 out of 120 teams. Missouri has scored 36.8ppg, but that includes 52 vs a non BCS team in Furman, and 3 BCS teams that are ranked 91,105, and 107 out of the 120 teams or average in the 84th percentile of all teams. It is very unlikely they will have that kind of success vs a Nebraska defense that is ranked #21. What shows up here is Derrick Washington averaged 5.9ypc a year ago, and scored 17 TD's, and also caught 29 passes for 277 yards at 9.6 per catch. This year, he has been limited to 301 yards on 68 carries for 4.4ypc, a yard and a half less than a year ago, and just 5 catches for a net of 22 yards, way down, because he doesn't have the same weapons on offense, and he isn't the same player. Nebraska has shored up their defense from a year ago, and the strength is the secondary, where all return, and even the two-deep has experience. It will make things much more difficult for Blaine Gabbert as he has not seen a semblence of a decent defense yet. Nebraska is going to run the ball a lot here, becase they can dominate the line of scrimmage. They went into Blacksburg, vs a tough Hokie team and ran the ball for 207 yards. Despite the offensive explosiveness these teams have displayed in the past, Missouri has now played 6 straight unders at home vs a team with a winning record, and 7 of 8 after an ATS win. Nebraska has played 8 of their last 10 on grass to the under as well. Despite the fact that over 60% of the public is on the over, this one has dropped from the opening total of 54.5 down to 52.5/53 as of this posting. Week night games in NCAAF have featured 26 games with a home underdog and the under has been 18-7-1 or converting 72% of the time! I like this one to go under the total.

This could be one of the ugliest games of the week. The Tampa Bucs were held to under 100 yards last week. Iwent back and looked at teams that produced such futility, and what happens to them in their next game. There have been 20 teams since 1990 that have gained less than 100 yards, and the next week, 4 of the 20 were shutout, and half of them did not get into the endzone the following week. I think Jim Zorn will help keep this game under the total. His best offensive weapon is Clinton Portis, but 12 of the first 16 plays vs the lowly Lions were passes. This is a Washington team that went up and down the field on the Rams, but could not get into the endzone. I'm not sure which is worse, getting shutout and not gaining 100 yards, or losing to a team that had previously lost 19 in a row. Washington scored a combined 23 points vs St. Louis and Detroit, this is off the heels of scoring 64 points in their last 6 home games last year, and they gave up just 93 in those same 6 games. That is just a total of 26ppg. First one to score wins. I'm going with the under in this one.

June Jones came over from Hawaii after successful tenure there, and he is akll about offense. The Mustangs immediately went into offensive mode with his arrival, and it won't change this season. The Mustangs are going to throw the ball 70% of the time, and it has gone both ways under Levi Mitchell. Mitchell threw 23 INT's a year ago, but also had 24 TD passes. The ball was in the air 35 times a game, but this year so far it is a more Hawaii like 50 times a game. The Mustang offense will get some points here, but they will also give some away to a solid TCU defense, so they will provide points here on both sides. TCU has always been known for defense, and they have a good one, but the offense is better than ever, and should put up an abundance of points her vs a poor SMU defense. The forte of the defense has always been against the run, but SMU won't even try to pretend to run the ball here. TCU doesn't face many pass happy teams, so they will probably give up a couple here, and probably take one the other way as well. That will provide ample points to push this one over the total.

The UL Monroe Warhawks have brought back 17 starters from a year ago, and the defense is loaded with talent and spped, and they will get their first crack at home vs like competition. UL Monroe lced 4 defensive players on the Sun Belt pre-season All-Conference team, while Florida International placed 0 on offense, and UL Monroe had 0 on offense. There were 6 players named to the all-conference 1st team defense and 6 are represented by these 2 schools. neither of these teams are very offensive, and I see this one a game of field position. UL Monroe is at their best when they can allow their defense to help determine the outcome and are now 7-0 to the under when posted as a favorite. I like this one to go under the total.

The BYU Cougars many believed would be in the running for a BCS Bowl bid, but a huge loss to Florida St. at home, has put those talks on hold. There has to be some concern over the Cougar offense that was outgained by Colorado St, and Florida St. as well, as QB Max Hall continues to make ill-advised decisions, having thrown 8 INT's already, after throwing just 12 all of last year. Utah St. ranks 8th in the country on offense, but we saw what a step up in class did to expose the #1 ranked Hawaii offense last night, as they managed just 6 points vs Louisiana Tech. Last year these teams put up just 48 points, and the year before at BYU, the Aggies didn't score a point. This game has only seen 65 points scored in 3 of the last 12 played at BYU, with the Aggies scoring 13 or less in 9 of them, and averaging just 13.6ppg. That would mean BYU would have to go over 50, something they have done just twice at home in the 12 games. This one doesn't reach a lofty total, and I'm going under here.

This game features teams of contrasting offenses, with Hawaii wanting to throw the ball, and Louisiana Tech wanting to run the ball. Hawaii's offense took a huge step back a year ago, as expected with the graduation of Colt Brennen. It took QB Greg Alexander the first half of last season to get a grasp on the run-and-shoot offense, but when he did the Warriors began to score. The Warriors averaged 30.3ppg in their last 7, which included games vs Cincinnati, and Notre Dame. This season, although the schedule has been weak, the Warriors lead the nation in offense, and passing is their key. That presents a problem for Louisiana Tech. They were awful last year against the pass, allowing 272.7 yards a game. What stands out about those numbers is the fact they played against 7 teams that ranked an avrage of 89th in passing offense out of 120 teams! While they did a good job vs teams that had poor passing attacks defensively, as those 7 teams averaged just 17.8ppg against them, when facing teams that could pass the ball they allowed 31.4ppg. The offense is returning 9 starters from a team that averaged 34ppg in their last 5 conference games. Hawaii boasts a 20-6-1 mark to the over in their last 27 vs a team with a losing record. This one is going over the total.

Week 3 of the NFL has seen the average points scored at 41.12 since 1983. It is historically one of the lowest scoring weeks in the NFL season, with the first two games getting players used to contact again, and a lot end up with injuries or nicked up pretty good. There have been 324 games played in week 3 with the under going 176-148 or connecting 54.3% in all games. When you look at the totals from the average NFL score during this week of 41, and go up to 49, these games have now gone 108-62 after yesterday's 5-2 performance to the UNDER. That is 63.5% going under the total, and historically, once a total reaches the upper portion of this range, the under has been solid in any week. Panthers are now 22-10 in their last 32 September games to the under, and Dallas is 46-21 to the under vs teams with a losing record. UNDER gets the call here.

This is a market inefficiency play. First of all high totals in the NFL have the propensity to go under, and not turn into the shootouts they are expected to produce. Week 3 in the NFL is a transitional week, lots of injuries, and players dinged up from the new contact sustained in games 1 & 2. Overall since 1983 week 3 NFL totals have gone 176-148 to the under or 54.3%, one of the highest under totals of any week in the NFL. The average total points scored this week are 41.12, so when totals reach the average point or higher, from 41-49.5 they have produced unders to a mark of 103-60 or 63.2% of the time. I am playing this one big to go under the total.

There are times in the NFL that a QB and team look so good, it is hard to imagine them not scoring big after watching them put up 40 in back-to-back weeks. Drew Brees and the Saints have had that look the first 2 weeks of the season. It has forced the hand of the oddsmakers to stack this total, and it is simply too high, and beyond expectations. Since week 16 of the 1999 NFL season we have seen a team accomplish what the Saints just did, and had their next game on the road 17 times. The results will surprise you, as well as the bandwagon hoppers, 65% of them playing the OVER in this one. These teams, that scored 40+ in 2 straight games, and then took to the road, averaged 20.5ppg in the 17 games!!! The total points scored in the 17 games averaged just 43ppg!!!! That leaves us over a TD over what the total should be in this game. The 17 gmes saw 12 of them fail to produce 51 points scored or 71% of them!!! This one goes under the total.

Thursday night I was on the South Carolina/Mississippi game under the total. One of the reasons was the fact that the South Carolina/Georgia game was an apparent shootout, but the reality is it was not. Most of the scores occured on a short field, and it made the defenses look a lot worse than they are, as well as making the offenses look much better than they truly are. Arizona St. comes in here scoring 44ppg, but against ULM, and Idaho St. The reality is they gained just 327 yards against a suspect Sun Belt team, and just 407 against Idaho St. The Sun Devils lost their QB, as did Georgia,and the Sun Devil running game is suspect at best. The Sun Devils bring back Dexter Davis on defense, the only returning player in the country to record 10+ sacks the last 2 years. He will team with Lawrence guy who had 10 tackles for a loss a year ago. Arizona St. is one of the deepest teams in the country at LB, where they have 8 or 9 with experience, and all of them can play. It has rained in Georgia all week, and the forecast calls for heavy rain during the game, which will slow down the play, and the defenses should rule here. I'm playing this one under the total.

The Kansas Jayhawks return QB Todd Reesing in a conference that is loaded with offense, and this Kansas team is designed to compete offensively. Reesing has a strong accurate arm, and great pocket presence, and can scramble, and keep looking downfield, making him a dangerous threat. He has a pair of talented wide recievers that combined for 189 catches and 2,452 yards, and 23 TD's a year ago, so the Jayhawks are gonna score. Defensively the entire linebacking corp is gone, and there is no true playmaker, or all-conference talent on the line. Southern Miss has a pair of talented sophomoes in QB Austin Davis, and WR Deandre Brown. Add in running back Damion Fletcher, and conference offensive records are going to be challenged. When all is said and done this game has the potential to be electric, and offensively explosive. Most of the talent is on offense here, from both sides, and I like this one to go over the total.

This one has been bid up by the oddsmakers, as it is a primetime event, and last seem South Carolina was supposed to be a defensive struggle vs Georgia, that turned into a shootout. Georgia went on to win that one by the count of 41-37. That game did not feature the offense indicitive of the final score. South Carolina has had trouble running the ball, as they went for just 3.7 a carry in that Georgia game, and just 2.6 vs NC State. The Gamecocks scored 2 TD's in the first 9 minutes of the Georgia game, and never found it again the rest of the game. They managed just 3 points vs NC State, and never found the end-zone in that one either. This is a team that will struggle against the best rushing defense they will have seen to date, and one that led the nation a year ago with 111 tackles for a loss. A one-dimensional team is not going to score a lot in the SEC on a consistent basis. The Rebels have a lot of skilled players on offense, but the Carolina team is a better defensive cub than they showed against Georgia. They faced some talented offensive teams at home a year ago, and not one of them scored over 24 points, in fact the average allowed was just 13ppg. The fact is even 2 years ago, if you discount the game at home vs Florida who scored 50 on everyone, the Gamecocks again allowed noone over 23, and the 6 other home games showed them allowing 16.8ppg. Looking back even 3 years ago the Gamecocks allowed just 18.2ppg at home. Just Florida, and Alabama scored over 26 points against this Gamecock team over their last 25 home games. Outside of that Florida game SC home SEC games have seen totals average 43.7 and the results average 41.1. It is surprising to see this one in the 50s. Ole Miss fits a nice under trend that has gone 28-6 to the under, taking a team that closed last year with 5 straight wins or more, in early season September conference games. Conference games in the early going, the month of September with 5 or fewer offensive starters returning, vs a defense with 8 or more strters returning have returned a 28-5 mark to the under. Houston Nutt is also 20-8 to the under in his coaching career as a favorite of 3.5-10 points. This one goes under the total.

The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks were not a dynamic offensive team a year ago. Last year they finished 7th in the weak Sun Belt Conference in total offense, and 6th in scoring. Their biggest threat was QB Kinsmon Lancaster, so they must replace the key and central figure to the offense, that wasn't very good to begin with. They also must replace their all-conference tight end, which will hurt both the running and passing game. We get a break on the total here as they scored 58 against nobody Texas Southern, and 20 against a Texas team that was eyeing this week's game vs Texas Tech. Texas commited 3 turnovers, and gave up a big 75 yard pass play. ULM does return a lot of good parts on defense, and has switched to a 3-3-5 defense under new coordinator Troy reffert who was brought in from New Mexico. They held a powerful Texas team to 4.2ypc running the ball. Arizona St. took a loss at QB as well with Rudy Carpenter gone, and left behind is a lackluster running game. Their 50-3 thrashing of Idaho St. tells nothing of the flaws offensively. Danny Sullivan is the new QB and he completed just 15-43 passes so far in his career. ASU has allowed 89 sacks over the last 2 seasons, and the 3-3-5 defense employed by ULM is designed to blitz from all over the field, and ASU may have problems putting up enough points here to put this one ver. Defense will be the calling card for this team this season. Dexter Davis is the only player in the country off back-to-back double-digit sack seasons. They also have Lawrence Guy who had 10 tackles for a loss in the DL. The Sun Devils are 8 to 9 deep at LB so the front 7 is going to be a force. The DB's feature an abundance of talent, and speed, and I expect them to completely shutdown ULM in this one. This game has all the ear-marks of a low scoring game, and I will go with the under in this one.

The Uconn Huskies will have to be led by their defense in this one, as they lost their starting QB last week. The Husky offense already misses Donald Brown, and the passing game is virtually non-existent, but the defense remains solid. Baylor has a lot of athletes, especially at QB, but the Huskies have the overall team speed and quickness to the ball to defend the field against Baylor. The Bears were slowed down at Wake Forest, and the Huskies at this point of the season are better defensively then Wake. With a backup QB and lackluster passing game to begin with the Huskies will rely on the defense to come up big, and the running game to shorten the game. I like this one to go under the total.

The North Texas Mean Green will come out of Alabama with just one thing, a big pay check, and perhaps another, a bruised ego. The Mean Green has ventured into BCS Conference schools turf a dozen times over the last several years, and the resulting offensive output shows 6,3,10,7,7,7,3,0,3,7,0,and 7 points. That is a grand total of 60 points, or exactly 5 a game. They will face one of the top defenses in the country in Alabama, who allowed much better offensive teams in Virginia Tech and Florida International a grand total of 65 yards on 57 rushing attempts. This is a Mean Green team that could muster just 2.9ypc against Ohio,U. This is an Alabama team that just grinds out yards on the ground, and not like an Oklahoma, or a Texas, or Florida that produces 50,60, or even 70 points in this type of game. The last 5 times they have squared off with a Sun Belt team they have scored an average of 30.8ppg, while allowing 7. Not one of the games has featured scoring a combined 50 points, the number that is posted here. The Tide has Arkansas on deck, and I wouldn't look for them to be running this one up, but look for them to shorten the game, and get out healthy, and grab a win. I'll play this one to go under the total.

The ACC has been known for being a very defensive conference, and last year had no team in the top 45 nationally in yards gained per game, while the defenses posted 7 teams in the top 25. So this season we have seen Florida St. and Miami post a 38-34 shootout, and Georgia Tech and Clemson hook up in a 30-27 shootout as well. That allows for the oddsmakers to post this one in the 50s, which is way too high. Last year these teams played 8 conference games each, and the highest posted total in any of the 16 games was 50. Georgia Tech played to an average total of 42.19 in conference games, while Miami played to an average posted total of 42.06. Even with those low 40s numbers unders in the 16 games beat the number the majority of the time. Tech has experience at LB, and playmakers in the secondary, and a star in the making on their DL in Derrick Morgan who had 7 sacks a year ago, and 9.5 tackles for a loss. The Hurricanes weakest part of their defense is a young, but talented secondary, but that is not Tech's game. Tech completed just 4 passes vs Clemson, and had 17 attempts. They will run the option most of the time, and the Hurricane strength s the DL. The linebacking corp, is headed by the all ACC defensive rookie of the year Sean Spence. This total is pumped up, because of the two opening game ACC shootouts each played, but let's take a look. Georgia was in a 30-27 game with Clemson, and 38 of the 57 points were scored from outside the redzone, which included plays of 82.85,77,63,and 34 yards, along with a 53yd FG. These teams combined for a total of just 28 first downs. The bottomline is the teams gained a total of 549 yards combined without the big plays, hardly an offensive display. Miami and Clemson put up 72 points, but again the game was dominated by big plays, as 43% of the points, 31 of them came from beyond the redzone. So in each case, the games looked very offensive, but the reality was they reflected a more defensive ACC typical game. Handicapping is about what is more likely to happen, than what is less likely, and it is certainly less likely we see the same 69 points in the 2 games come from long distance. It has given us a huge boost and an inflated total, and I'm going under in this one.

The Angel bats have gone stone cold, and the offense has been nonexistent for the past few weeks. This potent Angel offense is really struggling right now, and has produced 3 or fewer runs in 11 of their last 14 games, and averaging just a tick over 3 runs a game. The pitching on the otherhand has been superb, allowing 3 runs or less in 12 of their last 16, with noone scoring more than 5. It has led the Angels to a 13-0-1 mark to the under. Boston has played to a 16-7-1 mark to the under in their last 24 vs the AL West. This one goes under the total.

The New England Patriots offense a couple years ago with Tom Brady was scary. They seemed to score on almost every drive. This offense with Brady, that hasn't thrown a ball in a year in a meaningful game, won't be as scary, at least early. The Patriots have been more of an under team when the chalk reaches the 10.5 or higher range, as they have played 6 of the last 8 under, and in the same range, they have been 6-1 under at home. Buffalo has a long history as a road dog of playing to the under to a mark of 29-14. These teams playing in New England also have a long history of playing to the under as the under is now 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in New England, and the under is also 19-7 in their last 26 meetings overall. I will play this one to go under the total.

The Detroit Lions finished last season with a perfect 4-0 preseason, only to wind up becoming the first team in NFL history to take the collar for the entire regular season, not a single win. The Saints certainly have a high powered offense, but when you get into totals of this magnitude, it generally takes 2 offenses to push it over, especially in week one, when the offenses aren't sharp yet. The Saint offense averaged just 25.5ppg in their first 7 games, but managed almost a TD better in their last 9 at 31.6ppg. If you look at the Saints a year ago vs some lesser offenses, it became difficult for them to go over the total. They played a #0 ranked Detroit offense to an under, a #29 ranked Oakland offense to an under, and a #24 ranked Kansas City team to an under. I like this one to go under the total.

When you look at this UL Lafayette team, they were a very potent offensive team a year ago and finished ranked 16th in the country in yards per game at 451. They averaged 33.1 points per game in the process. The problem is they have to replace more offensive talent than anyone else in the Sun Belt. Tyrone Fenroy the teams all-time leading rusher is gone, as is QB Michael Desormeaux the Sun Belt's offensive player of the year, and wide reciever Jason Cherry, who caught 7 TD passes last year. Even last year, with an explosive offense they were grounded for 258 yards against conference king-pin Troy, and when they went up against Illinois, they were held under 300 as well. A Sun Belt team just doesn't replace 44 TD's and 3,600 yards overnight. The offense will be considerably down this season. The good news is the defense will be much better with 9 starters returning, and they are breking in a new kicker as well. Kansas St. struggles against Umass shows that they are going to have to fight for points themselves. Both of tese teams are going to try and run it at each other, and I just don't see this one breaking 50 points scored. I will go with the under in this one.

Looking at the Boston College Eagles, they are led by their defense, and have big question marks at QB. Last year they pounded the ball against Kent St. in a 21-0 win. The Eagles don't have the type of offense that is going to pile up points, and would rather get a lead, pound the ball, shorten the game, and let their defense do its thing. They have played 15 out of conference games against non-BCS conference teams the last 5 years, and have allowed an average of 8.7 points a game! Within those 15 games, are 5 shutouts, including an offensive Kent St. team last year, and 2 other MAC teams that did not get on the board. Kent St. already showed how much they miss Julian Edelman. Edelman threw for 1,820 yards, and ran for 1,305 last year, so replacing his 3,100 yards won't be easy, especially against the best defense they will see this season. It showed in their opener as Kent St. managed just an 18-0 win vs Coastal Carolina. They were held to 344 yards, and only generated 3,6 yards per rushing attempt. I like this one to fall under the total.

It is finally here, and the NFL season gets heated up with a bigtime matchup, as Pittsburgh plays host to Tennessee. The first glance of this one says defense, as the Titans were the #7 ranked defense in the entire NFL a year ago, while Pittsburgh finished #1. I'm not sure I'm buying the fact that Tennessee's defense was as good as the numbers a season ago, and I'm certainly expecting it to fall back this year. They will realize just how important Albert Haynesworth was when the season starts. Last year on the road Tennessee faced Cinn,KC,Blt,Chi,Jax,Det,Hou, and Indy. Those 8 teams ranked an average of 21st offensively, so the defense had very few challenges. Pittsburgh had all kinds of injury troubles on their offensive line, and at running back, and still had a productive offensive season. I expect them to be better this year. Here is a little known fact about Pittsburgh. This has always been a defensive team. The last 5 years have seen them finish 1st in yards allowed 3 times, and never lower than 9th, so they have been a top defense for quite sometime. That means they play a lot of games to posted totals in the 30s. The Steelers have played OVER in home games to a total posted in the 30s to a 28-8 mark or 78% of the time! They have also played over to a total in the 30s in 18 of their last 22 at home or 82% of the time. These teams have met many times over the years, and 5 of the last 6 have gone over the total. Looking at this series when played in Pittsburgh shows something very revealing. Since the 1991-92 season, or 18 years ago, these teams have met in Pittsburgh 9 times with a total set in the 30s, and all 9 went OVER the total. I'm seeing this one sailing over the total as well. OVER gets the call here.

Colorado went through a lot of offensive changes last year, attempting the no-huddle offense, but the problem was the strength of this team was not in the QB or recievers, it is and will continue to be the offensive line, running backs, and tight ends. That has led to the second scheme change in 2 years, and although the no-huddle will not be abandoned entirely, it won't be nearly as present as it was a year ago. That means this team is likely to utilize a short passing game, and a lot of running. Colorado St. made some strides a year ago under defensive coordinator Larry Kerr, as the linebacking corp, made more tackles than the safeties, and that defensive toughness should improve this year, and that will match well with the Buffalo attack. Colorado St. coach, said himself after sopring practice, that his team is farther away at QB and running back than he thought, so offensively expect the Rams to struggle early. This one has the makings of flying under a rather lofty total that has already dropped significantly from the opener at 54, dispite even action on both sides of the number. I like this one to go under the total.

The Tulsa Hurricanes were an offensive force a season ago, and lit up teams virtually everytime they took the field. The Golden Hurricane finished 2nd last season with 569ypg, and a team that averaged 47.2ppg. That will be nearly impossible to duplicate, as the Golden Hurricane must replace QB David Johnson, and RB Terrian Adams. The 2 accounted for over 5,000 yards, and 58 TDS. They also must replace their offensive coordinator, which means things might take awhile to get going here. They do return 8 on a suspect defense, that should improve some this season. Tulane was really an injury plagued team a year ago. The team that were beaten 101-13 in their last 2 games, was not representative of the talent level, but the level of depth, that was depleted. Remember this team lost at Alabama just 20-6 to open the season, and followed with a 28-24 loss on the road to East Carolina, and held LSU to 35 again on the road. A team that gave up just 21ppg in their first 4, gave up 41.3ppg in their last 8. We won't see the same Tulsa offense, breaking in a new QB, a new offensive coordinator, and a new running back. At the same time, Tulane will more resemble the team that opened last season, holding opponnets down. Offenses take time to gel, especially with a new QB. Since 2000, there have been 19 games with a total set at 60+ in the 1st week of the season, and the UNDER prevailed 14-5 or 74% of the time. All games averaged falling short of the total by 7.5 points, and in the 14 unders, they fell short by an average of 14.8ppg. When there is a home dog in a first week game, with a total of 60+, the under is 5-1. We already saw it last night with Oregon @ Boise St, an anticipated high scoring game, that ended 19-8 with a total set at 64.5. I expect this one to fall short of the total, and will play it to go UNDER the posted total.

There are several key components to this selection, and the most notable is the fact that Utah St. will now be coached by Gary Andersen. Andersen was the defensive coordinator and assistant head coach at Utah for the last 5 years. What he has done with this Utah St. team is putting an emphasis on a pressure based defense, that will be playing a lot of man-to-man in the secondary. That requires a lot of speed, so he has moved many offensive players to the defensive side of the ball, as he is afterall a defensive coach. He knows all the Utah schemes, and has a great familiarity with their team tendencies, so a definate advantage on defense. Utah St. is not a big scoring team, and Utah returns 7 on defense, from a game that saw Utah St. score 10 a year ago. Utah has suffered huge losses on offense, with their top 5 skill players gone, from RB,QB, to the top 3 recievers, so the domination of clock (39+ minutes from a year ago), is not likely to occur, and with a freshman QB, expect the offense to run more, and be a lot less risk taking. I will go with the under in this one.

The Cleveland Indians have been a terror against lefthand pitching, and the Tigers Nate Robertson is ripe to be had. The Indians are scoring 5.8 runs a game against lefthanders, while their starting pitcher, Fausto Carmona is struggling in a big way himself, entering here with an ERA of 6.20 on the season. To top that off, Cleveland is 36-14 to the over as a road dog, that is 72% to the over. They are also 10-1 to the over when Carmona starts with a total of 9-10.5, and 23-7 in his last 30 starts with the same posted total range, and 30 of his last 42 starts overall have resulted in games going over the total. Nate Robertson has pitched to the over to an 11-1 mark in his last 12 starts vs the AL Central. This obe goes over the total.

The Washington Nationals are a poor team, that has done nothing on the road for several years. They will go with Livan Hernandez in this one, who has shown 2 negative things throughout his career. He is a much better first half pitcher where he has led his teams to a 46-36 record, than he is a second half of the season pitcher where he has led his teams to a 28-36 mark. He has declined considerably from the effective hitter he was early in the decade that completed 4 seasons with an ERA of under 4, to one that over the past 4 seasons has barely been under 5, with the past 2 well over 5. He has allowed 1,018 hits in his last 741 innings, and surrendered 105 HR's in the process. His road ERA over the last 3 years has been close to 6. The Padres are off of their best road trip of the season, where they went 4-2, and come home feeling good, and have played .591 baseball at home vs teams with a losing record. Nats mired in a 32-92 stretch off a loss, and 10-49 with a total set at 7-8.5, and are just 17-60, where Hernandez himself is just 7-20. in their last 77 on the road vs a righthander. Nats just 19-40 in their last 59 vs San Diego, and in games played in San Diego just 8-23 in their last 31. Hernandez is capeable of giving up enough runs to make this one go over all by himself, and over gets the nod here.

The Green Bay Packers have been playing defense in the early going of the NFLX, obviously the teams weakest link a year ago, so any strides, and things this team needs to work on, should be focused on that side of the ball, and it has shown so far. The Cards have shown little in the way of offense, as that part of this team is also solid, with a more concentrated effort on the defesive side of the ball,knowing for them to advance where they were a year ago, it will happen on defense. NFLX games that have totals set 40 or higher, have show a propensity to go under the last 11 years, as 58.5% have landed short of the total. I will ride with the under in this one.

The Texas Rangers are a different team this season, and have much better pitching, and aside from a lot of power, this isn't the same type of hitting team we have seen in the past. It has struggled against lefthand pitching on the road, where it has scored 48 runs in their last 17, or just 2.8 a game. It has led to a 14-3 mark to the under. The Rangers are now 51-19-4 to the under in their last 74 with a posted total of 9-10.5. The Twins are also 12-4 when their opponent allowed 2 runs or less in their previous game. I like this one to go under the total.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled all season long offensively, and they find themselves in one of their worst spots, playing on the road vs a lefthand pitcher. The Pirate offense has managed a league worst, 3.5 runs a game vs lefthanders this season. That has led to 26 of their 35 games against them, going under the total, or 70.5%. They will have Zach Duke on the hill tonight to aid their cause, as he is ther top pitcher, and the Pirates are 14-7 to the under in his last 21 starts, and on the road he has squared off with a lefthander twice, both games resulting in an under, and the under is 10-1 when Duke pitches in a game with the posted total 9-10.5. Parra has pitched the Brewers to an under to the tune of 7-1 when he is a favorite from -110 to -150. I'll play under here.

The Mets have struggled offensively all season, and have produced just 3.8 runs a game against lefthand pitching on the season. They will face a hot one, and one of the best in the game over the past 2 seasons, in Cliff Lee. The Mets have now played to the under to a record of 33-16-4 at home vs a team with a .600+ winning percentage, and that includes 6 straight to a lefthand pitcher. The Phillies as big chalk of -201 or higher have played 14-6 under in their last 20, and 6 of the last 7 vs these teams have gone under as well. I'll play this one to go under the total.

The NFL-X is now upon us, and am looking through a lot of stats and one thing shines through for this one. When you see a total of 31 it is hard to pull the trigger on the under, especially when you look at the random nature of statistics overall, and past history. Last year there were 130 NFL-X games, and despite the low scoring nature of these games, just 23 of the 130 scored 31 points or less, or 17.7% of all games. When you add in the fact that 3 of them finished with exactly 31 points scored, that leaves 20 losers in 130 games or just 15.4%. This is a very narrow threshhold for this one to stay under the total regardless of circumstances.....oh but the oddsmaker....the mighty seductress they be. This is exactly what they want you to see, they are not fools, they are sharp as a razor. Digging deep within the numbers becomes quite revealing. What happens to that 15.4% of games going under when the oddsmakers, the ultimate seductress, says how low can you go? They don't tempt with these low numbers often, but rest assured when they do, they know exactly what they are doing. Since the turn of the century, this decade, beginning with the 2000 NFLX, just 11 games have been posted with a total of 31 or 31.5 in the AFC, and guess what that 15.4% turned into? It turned into 90.9% to the UNDER!!!! So the bait has been laid out, for the enticing low number, but I'm not taking it! I will go with this one to go under the total.

Dan Haren has been a top pitcher for a longtime, and this year he may be having his best season ever. Haren will enter this game with a 10-5 record and 2.14 ERA. He has been at his best of late, as he has allowed 2 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. The Phillies counter with Cole Hamels, another top pitcher, that also has a pedigree vs the Diamondbacks with a 2.13 career ERA. The D-Backs are also at their worst against lefthand pitching as they come into this game with a lowly 9-18 record, and scoring just 3.7 runs a game. The Phillies are now also 24-11-2 to the under after a win, while Haren has pitched in 10 of the last 14 to the under vs a team with a winning record.

You would be hard pressed to find two pitchers matched up in a game, that are as hot as the duo set to square off in this one. The Marlins send Ricky Nolasco to the mound, and he has been unhittable of late. Nolasco had a 9.07 ERA in mid May, but over his last 6 starts he has pitched to a 1.54 ERA, and just 0.78 over his last 3. Dan Haren is leading the NL in ERA, and has pitched lights out all season. Haren has a 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts, and has not allowed more than 2 runs in each of his last 8 starts. The Marlins are also 19-7 in their last 26 games posted as a dog from +110 to +150, while Arizona has played to the under to the mark of 7-0-1 in their last 8 with a total of 7 to 8.5. These teams have combined to a 9-3-3 mark to the under in their last 15 as well. I look for this one to go under the total.

John Lackey appears to finally be building up arm strength, and I expect a solid effort from him tonight. We get a bit of a pad on the total, because his season numbers have not been good, with a 5+ ERA, and is off 7 innings of shutout baseball in his last start. Jeremy Guthrie is a better pitcher than the 5.11 ERA he has posted on the season as well, and I expect a solid effort here as well, as his recent 3 games shows a 3.44 ERA. lackey has been a "momentum" pitcher, leading the Angels to a 20-7-1 mark to the under after a quality start in his last outing, and his last 4 starts vs the O's have resulted in unders. I'll go with the under here.

The Colorado Rockies have put together a huge streak of 11 straight wins, but they will face a team that has been equally hot, as the Tampa Bay Rays come in having won 5 straight of their own. Something has to give, and it is likely the pitching. The Rockies are averaging 6.6 runs a game in their 11 game win streak, while the Rays have scored 7.4 in their 5 game winning streak. The Rays have also been 29-9-2 to the over in their last 40 interleague road games. I look for this one to go over the total, and it gets my MLB Tuesday Play of the Day nod.

The Orlando Magic have their back up against the wall, and will have to lay it all out for this one or they are going to be on the golf course next week, instead of the hardwood in LA. This series has been decidedly defensive, so much so that 2 of the games went into overtime, yet still managed to come in well under the total. It would be a very comfortable pick to ride the under here, but in the NBA playoffs, what happened in yesterday's game, isn't as important in determining the next game as historical records in like circumstances. I played game 3 over and it was the highest scoring game of the series so far, as both teams shot the lights out of the arena. So here we go to game 5, with the total a long distance from where it opened in game 1, and many will be on the under here. I won't be one of them. Game 5's in the NBA finals, often dtermined to be a pivital game have shown a high propensity to play as one of the highest scoring games of the series. The last 7 years have shown game 5 to be either the highest scoring game of the series of the first 5 played, or the 2nd highest. The 7 games have seen 6 of them play over. Last year the Celtics and Lakers were playing unders at the same rate, 3-1 under through 4 games, but game 5 went over. The '07 series went just 4 games, but in '06 afyter 3-1 to the under, Dallas and Miami played the highest scoring game of the series through 5 games. The '05 series between Detroit and San Antonio did the same thing. The last 7 played in Orlando have seen 6 of 7 go over. This one will surprise many and go OVER the total.

Jamie Moyer is the ageless one, as he will turn 47 before the calender changes, but I'm afraid, age has caught up. Moyer enters here with a 6.27 ERA, and has faced the Mets twice this year, and lasted a combined 8 innings, allowing 12 runs, 14 hits, and 6 walks. Tim Redding on the otherhand, tonight's starter for the Mets, has been even worse. He has pitched to an 8.59 ERA in his last 3 starts. That brings his numbers over his last 15 big league starts to 76 innings, 104 hits, 36 walks, and an ERA of nearly 6 a game. He has also allowed 16 HR's, and Moyer has allowed 14 already this year. This one might need an extra digit on the scoreboard, and going with the OVER here

Russ Ortiz hasn't missed too many buffets by the looks, and lately, he isn't missing many bats either. Ortiz has become bat shy, after getting pounded and lasting just 12 innings in his last 3 starts, and has walked 12 pitching to anearly 6 ERA. Those numbers are good compared to his 10.13 ERA vs the Cubs this season, and 5.71 ERA for his career. Ryan Dempster has led a hit parade against the Cubs with his 4-10 mark vs the Astros over his career, and he has walked 63 in just 128 innings against them. Plenty of baerunners in this one, and it goes OVER the total.

MREAST have you gone mad? Didn't you see the first 2 games of this series? The defense has reigned supreme, and both games have gone way under the total, with game 2 surviving OT, and still went under? Yes, I have seen every minute, and so has the public, and so have the oddsmakers. History leads to a valuable lesson, and failing to recognize it, puts you on the romantic side of comfort, but the losing side of the game. I have NBA Finals history that goes back to 1991. There have been 7 occasions where the first 2 game totals either both went over, or both went under. Game 3 is the first venue change, the series takes on a completely different characteristic, and the result was that 6 of the 7 times, game 3 produced an entirely different flow to the game. It produced the opposite results of what occured in games 1&2. I also must point out that the Lakers last 4 trips into this building has seen them score a minimum of 103 points, and they have averaged 107.5ppg. There is a reason for this. When the so-called fair line is set for game 1, and there are 2 consecutive results that deem that the line was not fair, the reaction of the odds-makers follow the sense they will get from the public, and that is, "This is going to be a defensive series". The result is a line that is suddenly 8.5 points from the original fair line. Since 1991 there has never been an 8.5 point line movement on the total from game 1 to game 3. The last 5 times these teams have met in Orlando the games have all gone over the total, and that is my call here, OVER the total.

I dug long and hard to find the valued side last night, and it turned in another winner. I have done even more to ensure, at the very least I am on the valued side for this one as well, and hopefully I can show you why this is the most valued play in tonight's game. let's go back and look at this total for game one. The books, and the public sw this one as being very physical, and defensive, and the opening game total was set at 184. The public still liked the under and backed it, even though the public is almost exclusively over oriented, they went under 51.36%, which doesn't seem like much, but rarely is a public consensus on the under. The series took on the OVER trait, and has produced 4 of 5 to the OVER, forcing the hand of the oddsmaker to go 8.5 points higher on what was deemed a fair total for these teams. So the question becomes this. Did the oddsmakers miss this one, and the new total is fair, or did the public force their hand, to move this 8.5 points? My answer is a little of both. This game however has been more public, as the same bettors that sided under in game 1, have been seduced well onto the otherside, where they favor the over, despite an 8.5 point line movement. The public is close to 70% on the over. Not me! Let's take a look at the Denver/Laker series. It followed a similar course in the opposite direction. The series opener was 214, but 4 of 5 unders pushed the line down to 208.5. Not quite as much as the total moving up in this case, but there is a reason for that. The oddsmakers know the action is going over, so they hedge the few points difference here, while they pad the OVER for the Cleveland game, a full 3 points more, than they reduced the total in the LA series. Last night the game went over, but it would have fallen under to the opening "fair" total. Now we have to look back and see if this is a similar pattern in NBA 3rd round 6th game playoffs. I take you back to 1998 when Indiana had played 4 of 5 to the OVER, and the opening 1st game total was 178. Because of the over signature on the series, the oddsmakers jacked the total to 186.5 for game 6. The game played UNDER, but also note, it would have gone OVER the game 1 "fair" total. The 1993 Chicago Bulls had played 4 of 5 overs in their 3rd round series, and the total went from game 1 at 183, to game 6 at 191. This game also went UNDER the total, but again, would have gone OVER the game 1 "fair" total. Contrary to popular belief, I am of the opinion, that the last game, or 2 games ago, does not have anything to do with the next game, except in the mind of the public. They go by what they see, and what they see is points, and the oddsmakers aren't foolish, they will put out a line that puts the expectation of the public OVER on the wrong side of the value, and tax the total, and in this case almost 9 points from the original. NBA 3rd round action has seen 26 series go to game 6 since 1991. There have been 19 of the 26 that have been 3-2 to the UNDER or better, while there have been just 7 that have been 3-2 to the OVER or better. All together this round through game 5 has seen the unders go 88-43. Game 6 has seen the under prevail at 15-10. When it has been an over series through 5 games, which mentioned earlier has occured 7 times, game 6 went under in 5 of them 71.4% of the time. Eastern Conference game 6's have gone under in 10 of 14, or 71.4% of the time. Lots of line value here on the UNDER and that is my play here

I took an extraordinary long time to look over this game, and concluded one thing. These teams have both underachieved all series long on offense, and I will give some credit to the defenses on both sides, which are underrated, but not the total reason. I have seen all of these games, and there have been an inordinate amount of easy looks from 3 missed. It has resulted in 69-221 from beyond the arc from both sides. 31.2%, yet these teams are averaging 207 points a game. These teams have also both underachieved from the free throw line, shooting a combined under 70%. It has been no different from the field where they are shooting 44.1% combined. These teams are both better than that by a long shot. If the shooting percentages stay the same and they hit their combined average from the free throw line of 77% instead of just under 69%, we are talking about a series that has played 3 unders to this line, not 4 overs! What was deemed a fair line for game 1 at 214.5 has shrunk to 209 some 5.5 points below, and there is definately value now leaking into the over here. The Nuggets are certainly capeable, as they have averaged 115ppg in their last 18 home games, and the Lakers for all their struggles, have yet to be held under 100. Carmelo Anthony is hobbled a bit, but long before he was struggling, and is now 28-81 in the last 4 at 34.5%. He shoots 40% and your talking about 3-4 more points a game. The last 4 games these teams have averaged 74 free throws a contest, you can excuse the misses from the field, but at some point the top players in the world are going to hit their average. If we are talking about teams that were hitting 7% over that average instead of 7% under it, the free throw line alone, would of added 5 points a game. So this line gets juiced down based on sub-par numbers across the board, a full 5.5 points from game 1. There is too many ways, that this has an opportunity to go over, and I'm calling for the highest scoring game of the series, and OVER gets the call.

The Cleveland Cavs have to consider themselves lucky they aren't down in this series 3 games to none. If not for a miracle shot by LeBron James as time expired in game two, that would be their fate. Sometimes having a player like LeBron James can be both an asset, and a liability. James has taken 40.3% of all the Cavs shots in this series, which leads to a lot of standing around by other players, and consequently, they have shot just 38.3%. The free throw line shows he has even taken a higher percentage of shots, than the 40.3% he is credited with as he has gone to the line 46 times, while the rest of his teammates combined just 32 times. That tells me LeBron is approaching 50% of the teams shots at the basket, and the fact the rest of the Cavs aren't getting to the line at all, means all their shots are coming from the perimeter. The Magic have had similar problems trying to get Howard involved in the offense, as he has taken just 8 shots in each of the last 2, despite having 8 offensive rebounds. That probably means he is getting more like 6 shots a game from the regular offense. This leaves us with a perimeter oriented game, with 2 good defenses, and game 4's have been notorious for playing under in the NBA Playoffs. Since 1996 when the total is in the 180s, the under has been 82-42 in the 4th game of an NBA playoff series, or 66.1% of the time, 6-2 this season. The 124 games have seen 51.6% of them come short of the total by 7 points or more! Higher seeds that enter game 4 with a 1-2 record have not played an over to any total since 1991, they have gone 8-0 to the under. Orlando is now 27-11 to the under in their last 38 games at home, while the Cavs have yet to play over on the road this year in the playoffs, 5-0 to the under. I like the UNDER in this one.

The Denver Nuggets are a perfect 10-0 ATS in the playoffs. They have been absolutely playing at breakneck speed, with the entire philosophy heard by Coach Karl in the huddle, is not to worry about the score, we wear teams down in the 2nd half. Taking a look at the sililarities here, last year Denver came into LA for game one of the playoffs. They has scored 100+ points in 22 of 23 straight games, and it turned into a total track meet, finishing with 242 points scored. The Nuggets posted 114 in that game, despite the fact that they failed to reach 100 in both regular season games in LA. This year the Nugget offense has touched the century mark in 25 of their last 26 (not counting the season finale when all the starters sat). The lakers are a bit worse than average when playing against top 10 offenses at home. They had 17 such games this season vs teams that would go on to average 104.68ppg, and they allowed 106ppg. These same offensive teams allowed an average of 103.31ppg, and the Lakers feasted on the uptempo style, and averaged 115.6ppg against them. (Denver allowed 101ppg this season, in that same neighborhood. The Lakers low output in those 16 games was 103. When you look at the Lakers vs teams that averaged allowing within 1.5 points higher and lower than Denver this season, they averaged 111ppg at home in 14 games, still way over their average. There are just 7 teams in the NBA that take 40%+ of their shots during the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. The Lakers played 8 games at home vs these fast paced teams, and the average total points scored was 221.2ppg. Both Denver and LA are 2 of the 7 teams. Looking at the Houston series, and the lack of scoring, can be looked upon as a Laker offensive slump, but Houston is one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA. The Lakers are gonna look forward to running, which is when they are at their best, and they will have a willing dance partner in Denver. This one goes over by plenty.

There has been a stark contrast of styles over the last 15 or so years in the NBA. The West has had more in the way of offensive teams, while the East has had a lot of ugly teams, meaning defensive oriented teams. The numbers bear that out, as when you get to game 7 in a series, your going to see what teams do best to try and close it out. Since 1993 these styles have imposed their will, and left a signature on game 7. The West in game 7's from the conference semi-finals on, have averaged 198.2ppg, while in the East, an amazing 20 points per game less at 178.4ppg. The Celtics and the Magic, have gone toe-to-toe on the defensive end in all but 2 games, and those 2 games, were the one-sded affairs, that I would expect to see in game 7. The Magic are now 21-8 to the under in their last 29 games, and 14-4 under in their last 18 vs teams with a winning ercentage of .600 or higher. Boston is now 35-17 in their last 52 to the under, vs teams with a .600 winning percentage or higher. I'm playing this one to go under the total.

The denver team is clciking in a big way, and at home their offense has been really turning it up a notch. The Nuggets have recorded 15 straight wins at home, and have topped the century mark in all 15, and averaging an impressive 115.5ppg in the process. Although the defense has been improved from what we have seen in the past from this team, it still doesn't translate vs the better offensive teams. The Nuggets allowed 103.3ppg to teams that averaged 100+ points on the season, when playing them at home, and of the 19 games that represents, only 1 team failed to score at least 97. Dallas has not had trouble scoring in this series, averaging 108ppg, but like everyone else, they can't stop or even slow down the Nugget attack. The Mavs have now played over to a 19-7 mark after allowing 100 or more in their previous game. I like this one to fly over the total.

The Denver Nuggets may have taken the heart out of the dallas Mavericks with a daggar 3 as time was running out in game 3 that gave them a 1 point win, and complete control of the series, now up 3 games to none. Denver has had mismatches inside with quicker interior players, and their offense has been rolling in the playoffs. The Nuggets outside of the season finale, when everyone sat, has scored 100+ in 23 of their last 24 games, to an average of just shy of 112ppg. Dallas has now played over to a 17-4 mark when their opponent has reached 100 points in their previous game. This one also sets up nicely with a perfect 100% trend that points to the OVER. A trend that has not lost in an NBA playoff game since 1991!!!! I will back the over in this one.

The Houston Rockets caught the Lakers off guard in game 1, but the Lakers have had their way offensively since, as they are averaging almost 110ppg in the last 2. They got to 108 last game despite Pao Gasol, and Kobe Bryant combining to go just 15-39 from the floor, under 40%. The Rockets also suffered a blow as Yao Ming sprained his ankle in game 3, and could miss game 4, or be rendered less effective. That opens the middle for the Lakers with guard penetration, and Gasol, and Bynum inside. Houston will play a bit faster without Yao on the court, as they don't have to wait for him to run their offense. I will play this one to go over the total.

The Atlanta Hawks have really struggled offensively on the road in the playoffs. They have been held to under 80 points in 3 of their 4 games, while scoring just 81 in the other game. Those numbers represent 4 of the 5 lowest scores for this Atlanta team on the road all season! I look for that to change tonight. This is a team that scored 96 or more against the Cavs in 3 of the 4 games they played during the regular season, and scored 96 in both games at Cleveland. The second game in round 2 of the playoffs has averaged 10.1ppg more than game 1 over the last 6 years covering 24 games, a total of 243 points more scored in game 2 than game 1, across the board. The Cavs offense is averaging 98ppg at home in the playoffs, and in their 44 home games on the season they average 102ppg. If Atlanta can get to 80, which they have done in 41 of 45 road games this season this one is going over, and I'm playing it to do just that. I will go OVER the total in this one.

The Lakers were stunned in the opener by the Rockets at home, and I look for this one to be a much different game in terms of shooting the ball. Kobe bryant took 31 shots, the rest of the starters took 40 combined. The porblem was Bryant wasn't connecting, and when his teammates did get open looks from beyond the arc, they proceeded to go 1-11. This is a much better shooting team than that, and I expect those numbers to change tonight. Kobe himself shot 1-7 from deep. Despite the lousy shooting numbers this game came within 1 point of going over the total, which is set the same for tonight's game. Houston didn't exactly shoot the lights out from beyond the arc either, as they were only 5-18, good for 27.8%. That means these teams combined for 7-35 from deep or 20%, and yet the game was still an eyelash from going over. The Lakers were also a dismal 63% from the stripe, so one more made 3, one more made free throw and that one goes over, even with the horrible numbers. Houston, despite their defensive label, is 5th in the league in free throw shooting, and in the top 10 in 3-pt FG percentage, which would surprise most. I look for this one to go over the total. As an additional note to this one, game 2's in the semi final rounds have out-scored game 1's by 10.1ppg over the last 6 years. A total of 243 points more in the 24 games.

The Houston Astros are a weak offensive team, that showed some life against the weak pitching of the Nats. They will have their work cut out for them in this one vs Rich Harden. Harden is off a game where he allowed 5 earned runs, and over his career that has spelled bad news for opponents. Harden has allowed 4 earned runs or more 9 times in his career and has followed those games with 63.2 innings, and just 11 earned runs in his next outing, good for an ERA of 1.55. Mike Hampton has been highly effective over his career vs the Cubs with a 9-4 mark and slender 2.98 ERA. I like this one to go under the total.

The Cleveland Cavs led the NBA in fewest points allowed on the season at 91.3ppg. They rolled out of series one holding the Pistons to 78ppg in their 4 game sweep. Atlanta had all kinds of problems scoring on the road at Miami, where they averaged just 77ppg and never topped 81. Teams that have had 5 or more days rest are 28-17 to the under in game one of a series since 1993. The Cavs are also 41-20 to the under after an ATS win. The Cavs love to walk the ball up the floor, and on the defensive end they have been a menace all season especially when they are focused which they will be here. This one goes under the total.

The Houston Astros continue to have scoring problems, as they are dead last in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 3.5. They will send their ace Roy Oswalt to fce the Nats this afternoon.Oswalt has solved the Nats over his career as he possesses a 2.59 lifetime ERA against them. Scott Olsen gets the ball for the Nats, and he has been perfect for his career against the Astros, at 3-0 with a 3.20 ERA. Neither of these teams are big offensively, and both pitchers have had their way vs today's opponent, and I like this one to go under the total.

The Lakers have been a solid under team as the season progressed, and finished with a 20-9 mark to the under in their last 29 games, including the playoff series with the Jazz. Houston has long been a defense first team, and they certainly aren't gonna want to make this a track meet agianst the Lakers. The Rockets finished playing under in 21 of their last 34. The under has hit on 62.2% of the time when at least 1 team has had 5 or more days off at the start of the next playoff series, those numbers date back to 1993. The Rockets are also 19-7 to the under in their last 26 vs a team with a winning percentage over .600, that is 73.1% of the time. The Lakers are an identical 19-7 to the under in their last 26 games as a favorite. I like this one to go under the total.

The Houston Astros offense is going to struggle all season long, and they are averaging just 3.5 runs a game so far this season. Those numbers get worse on the road where they are scoring just 3.1 a game. Washington isn't in a much better position offensively as they have scored just 4.4 runs a game themselves. The Astros have opened the season with an under mark of 16-7-1 and have scored 3 runs or less in 14 of the 24 games on the season. The Astros are also 11-0 in Moehler's last 11 starts in game one of a series, while the Nationals have played 6-0-1 to the under in their last 7 games vs a team with a losing record on the season. I'll go with the under in this one.

The Denver Nuggets went through an offensive slump in the middle to latter part of the season that saw them scoring under 100 points in 9 of 14 games. They had actually played 2 games where they were held to the 70s, very uncharacteristic of this team. They have recovered better than ever. The New Orleans Hornets finished the regular season holding opponents to 94.3ppg. They could not stop the offense of the Nuggets, especially in Denver. The Nuggets averaged 109.3ppg in the 3 games played in Denver, a full 13 points a game better than the Hornets allowed on the season. The Nuggets have now won their last 13 at home, and are averaging 115.2ppg in the process. The Mavericks are a well rested team coming into this game, and that has led to a lot of scoring as their last 7 games playing on 3 days or more rest have all produced overs, and they are 20-8 to the over in their last 28 conference semi-final games. I'll back this one to go OVER the total.

This has certainly been an exciting series with overtime deciding 4 of the games. I would expect Boston to become the team that made them the number 2 seed in the East, and that is a defensive stallwart, and no place better to exercise that will than in the Garden in game 7. This series has played over in 5 of the 6 games, but overtime is the leading contributor, not the games themselves. Prior to overtime in 3 of the games, neither team scored more than 97, not enough to put this one over the total. Boston will impose their will and best defensive effort in this one, and I'll go with the under here.

The Miami Heat find themselves down in the series 3 games to 2, and face elimination at home tonight. This is the place where big players, such as Dwayne Wade usually step up and come up big. wade averaged 30.2ppg during the regular season. That is the key to this game and I believe the secret to the totals set in Miami games. The magic number for Wade is 25. When he tops the 25 point mark, the Heat play over games, when he does not, they struggle. The Heat are 20-10 to the over playing at home when Wade tops the 25 point mark, and 3-7 when he doesn't. They are also 16-5 on the season to the over playing to totals in the 180s, and that includes 12-1 at home!!! The 2 games in the series that Wade went for less than 25 were unders, and of the 3 that he topped 25, 2 went over and 1 failed by 1.5 points, but would have gone over this total. The Hawks have played 9-3 to the over after a straight up win by double-digits. I like this one to go over the total.

The Chicago Bulls had one bad game in the series where they scored just 86 points. To put that in perspective, it was their lowest scoring output at home the entire season. The Bulls are an offense first team, especially as the season went on, as they scored 108.5ppg in their last 19 home games. The problem is they are not stopping the Celtic offense, as even if you discount the points Boston has scored in overtime, they are still averaging 102.2ppg in this series. This number has come down, putting the pendulum of value on the over now. Boston is 20-7 to the over after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, while the Bulls have now played over to the tune of 21-6 vs teams with a .600+ winning percentage. Over gets the call here.

There will be 10 players on the court when this game starts, but it truly all boils down to one player, and that is Dwayne Wade. Wade simply means more to the Heat than any player in the NBA does to his team including Kobe, and LeBron. Wade has taken just about one-third of all the shots the Heat has put up in this series, and he has put up 36% of all the 3's they have taken, if he is off, it is goodnight Heat. If he is on, the Heat are going to be scoring. The tale of 2 teams for Miaimi. When Wade scores 25+ the Heat average 102.2ppg as a team, when he averages less than 25, they average 90.3ppg. When Wade scores 25+ the total in Heat games goes over to a mark of 40-18, when he doesn't just 5 of 24 go over! So the question, which is the key to this game, will Wade hit for 25 tonight? The answer is a resounding yes! Wade is worth 12pts a game to the Heat when he is having at least a reasonable shooting night and scoring 25, and this total has sunk off of a very low scoring game by 7 points from game 1. The Heat have played to a total posted in the 170s just once all season, so this is completely unwarranted at this point. This is only the 3rd time for the Hawks, as their lowest has been 179 as well. All 3 of these teams games with a total in the 170s has gone over. Miami has now played 21-6 to the over after a straight up loss, an indication that Wade comes back strong. I look for this one to go OVER the total.

This series has produced 3 overs and 1 under so far, but that isn't the true story of what has been happening. These teams without overtime would have played 3 unders and 1 over, so the numbers get a bit twisted. The Bulls have been playing with 7 players for the most part, and tonight will likely be without Ben Gordon, who tweaked a hamstring, and even if he does get some minutes, his overall effectiveness, and explosiveness may be diminished. That takes 24.5ppg away from the Bulls, and leaves them with 6 reliable players, and you'd have to think they are not going to try to make this as uptempo as past games in this series, which have still, for the most part, failed to topple the total in regulation. I look for this one to play under the total.

The New Orleans Hornets were destroyed in the 2 games at Denver, and their defense was certainly lacking. The Hornets play a different level of defense at home, especially against the good offensive teams. They played 15 games at home vs teams in the top 10 in points scored in the NBA and they allowed an average of just 95.5ppg in those 15 games, to teams that average 105.3ppg, or a full 10 points less per game. The 15 games featured total points scored of just 192.3ppg on average. Denver had problems scoring on the road vs the NBA's top 10 defenses in points allowed. They averaged 104.3ppg on the season, but when playing on the road vs the best 10 in the NBA in fewest points allowed they managed just 93ppg on the road, or 11 points less. They played 13 games against these teams, and the average total was 188ppg. This game will be much lower scoring, and there is lots of value on the under here, and that is my call.

This series over the years has been a war, and with the Pistons down 2-0 in the series, the one thing they have to call on is their defense, and I expect to see it in full force here. These teams have played 23 regular season games in a row to the under, except for 1 overtime game. They have produced gaves in the playoffs in the 140s, and typically play an ugly style game, which is usually the words used to describe a defensive struggle. This one figures to be a very low scoring affair as the Pistons step up the defensive intensity with their backs to the wall. I will play the under here.

Not many will question the Texas bats, and offense, as they lead the American league scoring 6.6 runs a game. The problem is their weak pitching staff and bullpen are also allowing 6.6 runs a game. They will face the O's Koji Uehara tonight who owns a 12.60 ERA vs the Rangers. The Orioles pitching has been atrotious as they are allowing a major league worst 7.3 runs a game. What has been a pleasant surprise is an offense that is scoring 5.5 runs a game. They will face Vicente Padilla tonight, who owns a career 9.62 ERA against them. The balls will be flying tonight at Camden Yard, and I look for this one to go over the total.