Sports Picks & Predictions

This game fits a situation that is 268-156 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 268-156 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 268-156 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Alabama is 58-4 SU at home under Nick Saban. His teams signature is the defense, always has been since day 1. His teams at home have been next to impossible to score on allowing 9.4ppg in 60 played here. That has led to a 16-42-2 O/U mark under Saban at home, including 8-25-2 O/U in conference games. When the total is below 49, is it is in this one vs Auburn, and they are not favored by 34 or more points, with a total of less than 49 they are 0-14 O/U. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 90-47 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 178-113 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 176-113 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 88-48 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that is 232-151 ATS, make the play on the UNDER.

This game fits a totals situation that is 232-151 ATS, make the play on the UNDER.

This game fits a totals situation that is 232-151 ATS, make the play on the UNDER.

This game fits a situation that is 279-172 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 279-172 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 175-113 ATS, and the play is on the over

Once you get to week 9 of the NCAAF season, teams offenses and defenses have declared themselves as to what they are. When a game is posted from week 9 on with a total of less than 39, the mark stands at 1-19-2 OU. Make the play on the under.

Once you get to week 9 of the NCAAF season, teams offenses and defenses have declared themselves as to what they are. When a game is posted from week 9 on with a total of less than 39, the mark stands at 1-19-2 OU. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 87-47 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 95-54 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 87-47 ATS, and the play is on the over.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost and failed to cover in 3 straight games. That has happened just 7 times since 1996, so this team at 4-4 is appearing to be in trouble. Dallas is clicking on all cylinders right now, and have been the best team in the NFL, with a balanced attack. There is roughly 100 yards a game from the line of scrimmage between these teams, in favor of Dallas, and the usually reliable Steeler defense has been below the league average on the season. Dallas has out-gained each of their last 6 opponents, and the only thing keeping the line down here is it is the Steelers. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in the last 3 years as road chalk, and simply are a much better team. Make the play on Dallas.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were supposed to turn the corner this season, but at 2-6, the Jags have not gotten off to the start they would have hoped for. QB Blake Bortles appeared to be heading for stardom, after throwing 35 TD passes a year ago, but has just 14 this season. The INT's at 18 last year needed to be cleaned up, but they haven't, as he has 10 already. The Jags are scoring 4.4ppg less than a year ago. Houston has had a solid defense for several years, and the feeling was Brock Osweiler was going to put them over the top offensively. That has not come close to happening with Houston averaging 17.1ppg. neither of these teams can sustain drives, neither throw the ball well. This one is coming down to field position, with limited offensive potential. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 49-19 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 182-107 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 166-99 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 56-20 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 85-46 ATS and the play is on the over.

Georgia Southern has only been in the FBS since the start of the 2014 season. They made a big splash winning 9 games in each of their first 2 seasons, but are not the same team this year. They run out of the triple option, but don't have the same caliber of players to run it this year. The 2014 season saw them at 53-383 per game on the ground, last year 56-363, but this year just 54-245. They have eroded 140ypg since 2014, and if you extract a game vs Savannah St. it drops to 222 ypg this year. They have averaged just 23.4ppg vs FBS opponents. LA Lafayette has a very poor offense, that has generated 13.3ppg in their last 3, but the one thing they do well is defend the run, allowing 3.1 ypa. LA Lafayayette runs 60% of the time, and Georgia Southern 73% of the time, so the ball will be on the ground a lot here burning clock. Since 2008 when a dog averages 125+ rushing yards per game, and playing to a total of 49 or less, the under is 519-367. Make the play on the under.(27-11 on Thursday games).

This game fits a situation that is 166-93 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 155-84 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 220-145 ATS, an the play is on the under.

the Seattle Seahawks can be nasty on defense, and they will be tested by a strong Bill's ground game, that should have LeSean McCoy back for this one. Russell Wilson has had a a lot of injury issues this season, but appears to be heeling, and pete Carroll called out the offense this week, to get things going. I think you may see a more mobile Wilson, and some downfield passes to open up the offense tonight. The Seattle defense has allowed over 360 yards to their opponents in each of the last 3 games, and that is the first time that has occurred since December 6, 2009. Monday Night inter conference games that have a winning road team against a .500 or less home team, have seen the total go 9-0 to the over in the last 9, all the waay back to 1990. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 159-279 O/U and the the play is on the under.

This game applies to a situation that is 218-144 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 217-144 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 263-181 ATS and the play is on the under.

It all comes down to game 7, and for each club, this is a huge game for themselves, the organization, and their fans. One of these teams will end a long drought without a World Series win, the other will once again have to lament of what could have been. It doesn't get any better than Corey Kluber v Kyle Hendricks, and each is the best their team has to offer, and a game 7 should have it no other way. Kluber was struggling prior to, and just after the all-star break, as the Tribe was just 9-11 in his 20 starts, allowing opponents to score 4.6 runs per game. The answer came from that point on. Kluber found himself, and Andrew Miller was added to the bull pen. The Tribe went on to go 15-2 in Kluber's last 17 starts, and the 4.6 runs per game against, dwarfed to 2.2. Those are scary numbers, but they are scarier at home where the Tribe was 13-1 allowing 1.7 runs per game. Not to be out done, Kyle Hendricks was crafting perfection of his own late in the season, as opponents scored 1.6 runs per game over his last 10 starts, 2 runs or less in 8 of those. There will be more support than ever for the starters, as tremendous bull pens, and starters, all will be available, with an "all hands on deck" approach. This is not going to be a hitters kind of game, as the innings will be absorbed by elite starters, backed by all-star bull pen arms left and right, as well as elite starters called on out of the pen to get outs. This will be a pressure cooker for hitters on both sides, and I don't see too many easy at bats in this game, start to finish. Make the play on the under.

I have a very specific metric that is based on offense vs defense, applied to road favorites, that fits into this game perfectly. While it doesn`t come up a lot, it has projected 87.7 total points in this game. Make the play on the over.

This game applies to a totals situation which is 90-45 O/U, it applies tonight, make the play on the over.

This game applies to a totals situation that is 174-112 O/U, and applies to this game, make the play on the over.

This game fits a totals situation that is 181-107 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 127-80 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 258-159 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 510-398 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 242-152 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation based on negative ATS margin over the past several games. It is 53-116-6 O/U, and the play is on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Whenever 2 option teams go at it, they know how to defend each other, as they see it in practice every day. That has led to a 6-26 O/U mark when option teams face each other in the right situation. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

Game one has long been a struggle for most teams on the offensive end. That can be shown by the fact that all home teams in game 1 are 149-180-4 O/U, or 54.7% fail to reach the total. When it is a relatively high total, of 200 or more, with a line of greater than -3 (true home favorite), they are 16-37-1 O/U or 70% fail to reach the total. Make the play on the under.

There is not a lot of offensive weapons on the field for Uconn, a team averaging just 17.3ppg in the Bob Diaco era, which started in 2014. The Huskies have done a bit better this year at 20.1ppg, but still a very below average offense. Central Florida has rebounded nicely, and fast from a woeful 2015, and are off to a 3-3 start. They are 20.4ppg better on offense, and 12.7ppg better on defense vs a year ago, but they are coming from a long distance from respectability. UCF has been pretty good defending the run, and so has Uconn, and that will take on extra importance here. The weather in E. Hartford, is not going to favor the kicking game or the passing game, as winds will be gusting up to 35 MPH, and a lot of rain is expected prior to kick off, so it could be a sloppy field as well. Bob Diaco has been known to get very conservative in poor weather conditions, and regardless, I think there will be a lot of running the ball here, against defenses expecting the run, that have handled opposing running attacks at an above average rate on the season. My NCAAF TOTAL OF THE MONTH, is on the UNDER.

This is strictly a situational play. This game fits a totals situation that is 53-115 O/U. Make the play on the under.

The Indianapolis Colts offense has generated 20 points or more in all 5 of their games, but the defense has allowed 22 or more, and last week coughed up over 500 yards to a pedestrian Bears offense. The problem here is the Colts, while scoring at a decent clip, have an average offense from the line of scrimmage, that will be tested by a Houston back 7 that has been significantly above average on the season. Since most of the Indianapolis offense comes in the air, as they have yet to rush for 100 yards in a game this season, Houston will be ready for the passing game. No team has generated more than 351 yards on the Houston defense this season, and just 1 team has gotten 200+ yards on their secondary. The problem for Houston is sustaining drives, and their lackluster passing attack, isn't good enough to take advantage of a weak Colts secondary. Andrew Luck has certainly taken care of business at home in his career, but as a road dog he is just 7-13 ATS with a passer rating of a woeful 68.1, with 27 TD's and 33 INT's, generating just 18.6ppg. This game also fits a super total situation, one that has generated a mark of 41-107 O/U, and I'm not going to buck that. Make the play on the under.

The idea behind sports betting is to find where the bias is. Bias comes in many forms, but for addressing the card today we have a long term total bias situation in play here. Whenever you have two teams playing, that have played more overs than unders in the regular season, we have a totals bias to the over. This does not work the other way around, with 2 under teams, simply because the public has an innate tendency to bet over. Now if we capture, and handicap the totals, avoiding extremes, we have the following: Play under in any NFL regular season game when both teams have each played more games resulting in over the total, than under the total, if the total is in line with mainstream NFL totals, not extremes (greater than 37 and less than 53). The result is:

263-360-10 O/U or 57.8% playing under. Make the play on the under in this contest.

This game fits a situation, that is based in part in a match up of underachieving teams, that has posted a 53-112-6 O/U mark. The play is on the under.

There are simply not a lot of teams that run the triple option, but Saturday a pair that do will meet as Georgia Southern takes on Georgia Tech. The theory of course, is these teams practice against it every single day of practice, so understanding the system in great detail, would have a team more prepared to be effective defensively against it, than a typical team. When a pair of triple option teams meet, and the line is higher than -7, the result has been 2-17 O/U in these games, covering the under by a whooping 11.32ppg. These teams that rush all the time for averages of 5 yards to 7 yards per carry, have been 96.4 carries for 407.1 total yards or just 4.22 yards per carry, well below their norms. Make the play on the under.

Have a double total situation for tonight. Lafayette has already played an option team (Tulane), and has been significantly above average vs the run this year, so should do a good job here. App St. 47-272 on ground last year, just 47-213 this year, has eroded year over year, and Cox out has not been the difference. teams that have previously seen the option do very well against it. App St. passing erosion 220 in 2014, 194 in 2015 and 166 this year on similar attempts, offense not nearly as impactful, down from 35,37ppg in 14,15 to 23ppg this year.I have an 89-128-5 O/U situation on this game, and option teams tend to under perform vs a team that has seen and practiced for the option from a game earlier in the season. Make the play on the under.

Clayton Kershaw gets a bad rap for his pack of success in the playoffs where the Dodgers are just 5-6. The fact is, in 8 of those 11 games the opponents have combined to score 17 runs, or 2 per game. Certainly it is more favorable to think he will pitch a game of that nature, as he has done 78% of the time. he has dominated the Nats in his last 9 starts against them with the Dodgers 9-0, scoring a total of 14 runs in the 9 games. Joe Ross has 32 career starts with opponents scoring just 3.6 runs a game. Additionally Washington fits a team specific 0-20 O/U mark active for this game. Make the play on the under.

The San Francisco 49ers opened the season with a shutout win, and just when you may have thought the Niner defense was back, they go and allow 83 points in their next 2 games. It has certainly made this total appear very achievable, and has drawn the attention of bettors, who love to bet over the total. That being said, the total has actually dropped half a point from the opener. This presents a very NFL worthy contrarian play. It may not be the Niner defense that has problems here, but the offense is brutally bad. Blaine Gabbert in his career is 5-14 O/U at home, generating just 14.2ppg. His 68.6 passer rating on the season says the Niners points are going to trend down, not up. perhaps the biggest factor here expresses the history of such contrarian situations. Home teams that have allowed 35 or more points in each of their last 2 games, with the total points allowed in the 2 games topping 80, and playing to a total from 35 to 48.5, and their opponents last opponent scored more than 10 points, are 1-25 O/U since 1980. The last 20 in this situation have all fallen shy of the total by an average of 12.25ppg. Lots of value, on an NFL worthy contrarian situation. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 6.9% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense has been so good for so long, it is expected they play high scoring games. The Pack put up a stunning 38.2ppg at home in 2014, but without Jordy Nelson (or so most thought), those numbers eroded to 23.2ppg. Unless your telling me Jordy Nelson is worth 15ppg, then something else is wrong. The Pack was 1-7 O/U at home a year ago. I'll tell you what is wrong. Aaron Rodgers has suddenly lost his mojo. Last year, it wasn't just Nelson being out, he so many times missed passes your used to seeing him convert with his eyes closed. This year, it has been worse. The 6.1 yards per attempt a year ago is down to 5.4 yards per attempt, Nelson included. Sunday night he over threw at least 3 times, and on a little dink pass to Lacey, he threw it into the ground. No one is saying anything, because after all, he is Aaron Rodgers, but is he anymore? The last 18 games says he is not, the posted total says he is. Detroit broke a 23 game losing streak at Lambeau last year, holding the sputtering Green Bay offense to just 3 points through 3 quarters in an 18-16 win. Most will consider Rodgers having had a great day, 35-61 for 333 yards and a pair of TD's, but look closer, just 5.46 yards per attempt. Those are bottom of the league numbers. This game fits a situation that is based in part by division road dogs in a scenario that has been an electric under producer at 117-206-2 O/U 36.2% over, so the under has been 63.8% on 325 games, close tyo a z-score of 5! A situation with nearly a 5 z-score on 325 games is off the charts! Make the play on the under.

This should be an interesting battle, especially if you remember Josh Norman going at it with O'Dell Beckham last year, when Norman was in Carolina. Norman severely got in Beckham's head, as Carolina was up 35-7. and Beckham caught his first ball with 5:19 left in the third. Carolina, and Norman slacked off, and the Giants eventually caught Carolina, but ended up with the loss. Coach Gruden has stated he may line up Norman across from Beckham on every down. The Giants offense is generating just 5.9 yards a play to defenses that have allowed 6.6, but the defense is allowing just 4.7 to teams averaging 5.9. Washington has been a half yard better than their opponents on offense, but -0.9 yards worse per play on defense. What I see is a good Washington offense, not good enough to overcome an even better NY defense, and a sub par NY offense, with their top weapon being taken away, not good enough to overcome the poor Washington defense. There is a bigger factor here historically as division games bring out defensive intensity, and division home favorites are 883-960-32 O/U since 1989, 52.1% under. When the total is greater than 38 it goes to 571-684-21 O/U or 54.5% under, and in fact when the total is above average, at 45 or more it goes to 105-150-1 O/U, or 58.8% to the under. I have a tremendous situation, one of my top total situations, applicable here which is 39-107-2 O/U or 73.3% to the under and an off the charts z-score of 5.59! Moreover, Eli Manning is 8-15 O/U for his career vs Washington, completing just 58.2% of his passes, with the games averaging less than 40 points. Kirk Cousins owns a career passer rating of 60.5 vs the G-men, and just 15ppg, and the 4 games have seen the G-men pick him off 8 times. Not a lot of love for the offenses here, to a high total. Make the play on the under.

his game fits a situation that has an ROI of 21.5% and the play is the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 21.8% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 9.6% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 9.4% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 16.8% the last 12 years and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 92.0% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 18.1% the last 12 years, and the play is on the over.

The Green Bay Packers escaped Jacksonville with a 28-24 victory to open the season. Minnesota was led by their defense in a 25-16 win at Tennessee. The Packers offense sputtered last season without Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb suffered the most. It also had an impact on Aaron Rodgers who was facing a lot of heat, and an average corp of receivers that simply could not get open. It was his worst year in a Packer uniform. Many see the packers getting back to normal with Nelson back on the field, but in the early going he is limited in the amount of plays he is on the field for. The 28 points in game one are going to leave the impression that the Green Bay offense is back, but the truth is, it sputtered against, at best a mediocre Jacksonville defense. Rodgers threw for a pedestrian 199 yards on 34 attempts, for 5.85 yards per attempt, worse than last year. Eddie Lacey and the Packer ground game managed just 3.8 yards per carry. While the points were there, the offense was arguably, worse than a year ago, and that will show vs a stout Minnesota defense. Zimmer said he will not name his starting QB until Sunday, and be it Shaun Hill, or Sam Bradford, the Minnesota offense lacks play makers, unlike the defense, which is loaded with them. Adrien Peterson looked like a shell of his former self, Since the start of the 2013 season, Peterson has averaged 4.4 yards a carry, a number below any of his season's average prior to that. The Vikings offense did not find the end-zone all game vs the Titans, as both scores came by the defense. Blair Walsh attempted 6 FG's in game 1, and history tells us, that a team playing at home, that attempted 5 or more FG's in their last game, does not solve their offensive woes the next week, resulting in a 37-74-4 O/U situation, or a 67% success rate on the under. The game analysis, with historic situational support, positions this game to have significant value taking a position on the UNDER.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 7.3% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 7.3% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 7.6% the last 12 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 7.6% the last 12 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 9.7% the last 12 years, and the play is on the under.

The Miami Dolphins have not had a coach that compiled a winning record since Dave Wannstedt (2000-04), and they have turned the reigns over to Adam Gase. Gase was given a 5 year contract, so it appears there will be some patience here, and their better be, as the Dolphins are poised to finish last in the AFC East. Last year was supposed to be big for QB Ryan Tannehill, but things were no different from 2014, except his completion percentage dropped. The result was a 4,000+ yard season, but just 19.1ppg. One issue has been the fact that his last 64 starts have seen him sacked 184 times. The running game is in flux, and I think the Dolphin's offense is going to be more troubling than even last year. They went from 14th to 26th in yards last year, and from 11 to 27 in points. Since the start of the 2007 season, the road has not been friendly for the Dolphins offense, at 17.7ppg, and that has led to a mark of 27-45 O/U, in 72 games, 62.5% under. Seattle is 31-6 SU in their last 37 at home, allowing 15.7ppg. They have led the league in fewest points allowed 4 straight years, and I expect no drop off this season. Biggest problem for this team s on the other side of the ball. The Seahawks won the Super Bowl in 2014, and in a short period of time, have 0 offensive lineman left from that team, and will rely on a couple rookies this season. They no longer have Lynch to romp for big chunks f yardage, and Rawls is coming back from a broken ankle, and a reduced offensive line. While Seattle has allowed 13 points or less in half of their last 14 home games, they have managed 30+ in just 4 of their last 14. If you do the math, the numbers don't add up, especially when the opponent is weak offensively. Seattle allows 12.5ppg when listed as a home favorite of 10 or more. That drops to a ridiculous 5.7ppg if it is prior to week 5, when injuries, fatigue, bumps, etc. have not kicked in yet. If this game is going to reach the total, the Seattle offense is going to have to score big, but they have not topped 31 points as a 10 or more point home favorite in their last 9, which was late in the 2013 season. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 7.5% the last 12 years, make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 10.3% the last 12 years, make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 10.3% the last 12 years, make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 7.6% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 7.7% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 7.6% the last 12 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 18.1% the last 13 years and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 14.3% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of 7.5% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of 10.9% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of 17.9% the last 12 years and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of 7.6% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 10.1% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 14.5% the last 12 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 7.4% the last 12 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 7.4% the last 12 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 16.4% the last 12 years and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 12.1% the last 12 year and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 15.0% the last 12 year and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 10.6% the last 12 years, and the play is on the under.