Sports Picks & Predictions

This game fits a situation that is 87-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 11.6% and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 20.9%, and the play is on Washington, on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 11.2% and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 29.8%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 29%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 29.8%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 29.8%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 29.8%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 29.8%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 29.8%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 29.8%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 29.8%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 29.8%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 202-120 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 46-22 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 11.0% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 11.0% and the play is on the over.

Phoenix continues to be a strong under play at home where they are 53-21 to the under last 84, make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 11.0%, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has a record of 35-12, make the play on the under.

Mercury always considered an uptempo big offensive team, has rode that perception to a 52-21 mark  to the under in their last 73 home games. Under in this one.

Cleveland has shot the ball at an unreasonably ridiculous rate, especially from deep. There are currently 7 players on the roster over 40%, from a team that averages less than that. It is an unsustainable pace. Cleveland is 19-1 SU at home shooting 40% or better from 3, and 18-2 to the over. When they are less than 40% they are 15-10-1 under. Boston on the road is 11-3 to the over allowing 40%+ from deep and 25-9 to the under when they allow less than 40% from deep. Cleveland games average 17ppg less when they are under 40% from deep, Boston's games 13ppg less when they allow less than 40%. Think numbers start to regress to the mean here, make the play on the under.

Sunday May 21st, 2017

Thomas being out, does not slow the Boston offense down, the shots taken and allowed, or pace is pretty close, what it does however is reduce the efficiency of the offense:

2pt .458 3pt .364 with
2pt .429 3pt .307 without

This certainly could be variance, as there are just 6 games without him this season.

How have they replace his 29ppg?

Essentially they haven`t. When he has played

Sports and physics sometimes come together in a strange sort of way. Some call it mojo, or momentum, or the hot hand, but in any case when Newton`s law meets team`s in the NBA playoffs, the theory of `An object in motion tends to stay in motion. We have seen that on behalf of the Cleveland Cavs in their series vs Boston, and through 2 games, Golden St. has looked equally unstoppable, posting 136 points in their last game. Put it all together, and when a pair of teams meet in the NBA playoffs, after beating the toatl in their previous series meeting by 20 or more points, but less than 50 points and playing at home (using home so double value for each game is eliminated), they are 85-50-3 O/U in their next contest. There is a subset of this, which is 24-2 O/U also active in this contest. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +11.6%, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 10.2%, and the play is on the under.

The Phoenix Mercury have long had the reputation for being an offensive team. That has led to some strong value on the under in their totals, especially on home hardwood where they own a 21-51 O/U mark in their last 72 here. That includes 10-32-1 o/U on more than a day of rest (2-15-1 O/U last 18). They are 0-4 O/U in last 4 vs Indiana as well, and overall have played 8 straight to the under as a home favorite. No game vs Indiana in the last 4 has topped 148 points. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 12.6%, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 16.9%, and the play is on the under.

When the Golden St. Warriors take the floor, the anticipation is they are going to score a ton of points. The public is certainly buying into those sentiments, as the over is a 70% choice by bettors for this game. There is a lot of evidence to the contrary for this game, and I will make my case here. First of all, most will think with Curry 6-20 and Thompson 1-9 in game 3, will not happen again. The thought may also be that their combined 3-15 shooting will not occur again either. The fact is, when the splash brothers have combined to connect on less than 5 from deep in the previous game, the next game is 1-9 O/U last 10 this season. When Golden St. makes less than 10 from deep, they are 6-16 O/U last 22. Golden St. has also played to their lowest totals on the road the last 2 years (less than 210 average) vs Cleveland, Utah,San Antonio, and Memphis, and has averaged just 101.9ppg in those contests. They have also been held to 92 points or less 7 times the last 2 years, 5 of those occurred against those 4 teams. The high scoring Warriors have played to a 14-29-1 O/U mark on the road this season, which is the highest percentage of under's by any team, and of those games, when the total has been 213 or less, they have been 0-6 O/U this year, and overall just 3-12-2 O/U anywhere to a total of less than 214. Teams that are up 3-0 in a playoff series, having won all 3 games by double-digits are 1-12 O/U. Golden St. is also 9-30 O/U on 1 day of rest last 39, and the under in this series is now 25-8-2 last 35. Look for this one to play under the total.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 11.1%, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 83.0%, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 49.2%, and the play is on the under.

The Golden St. Warriors beat Utah in game 1, and they look to go to 2-0 tonight. The Jazz have arguably, the best defense in the NBA, and they limited the high scoring Warrior attack to just 106 points in game 1. Their problem is on offense where they often go through extensive scoring droughts. There is no doubt the defense is legit. They held the NBA's top 10 scoring teams on the road to an average of just 101.2ppg, and over the 2nd half of the season, those numbers got even better, allowing 99.1ppg to the top 10 offenses from January 5th on. The public can't bet the over fast enough in this game, they see Golden St.'s unstoppable high octane offense, and a total just a little over 200, and the money is down on the over at well over 70% of all bets. There is typically a key stat for every match up, and the key stat for this one is offensive rebounds. The magic number for Golden St. regarding the total (easy put backs) is 10. The Warriors are 63-84 O/U when they fail to get 10 offensive rebounds, 73-75 O/U if they do. They are also 59-80-4 O/U off a game where they failed to generate 10 offensive rebounds. (9 in game 1). The problem for Golden St. it is a one and done situation vs the Jazz as they have garnered 10+ offensive rebounds just 1 time in their last 7 played against the Jazz. Overall these teams are 4-15 O/U in the last 19 meetings, failing to reach the total by an average of -12.18ppg. Teams playing in the playoffs as a double-digit home favorite and a total greater than 188, are 17-45 O/U. Game 2 dogs of 10+ that lost game 1, are 1-14 O/U last 15, failing to get to the total by an average of -12.53ppg. Make the play on the under.

The Golden St. Warriors will take on the Utah Jazz, in a series that depicts offense vs defense. The public sees the offense getting it done here, as 65% have dropped their money on the over, yet the total has dropped from the opener, a classic signature of big money on the 35% side, moving the number towards the money, but away from the consensus. Golden St. has averaged 114.3ppg at home since becoming an elite team in 2014, but in their 5 home games vs the Jazz over the period they have averaged just 104.7ppg, a full 10 points less, and have held a mediocre Jazz offense to 89.5ppg. Those numbers fall well shy of the total here, and with Golden St. now 26-8 ATS to the under in their last 34 home playoff games, including 13-2 to the under if the total is less than or equal to 209.(falling 11ppg shy of reaching the total on avg.) There is situational value on the under as well. Make the play on the under.

The regular season saw both these teams finish in a dead heat at 51-31. That was due to the fact that Cleveland was 10-14 in their last 24 games. They showed how little that mattered sweeping the Pacers in round 1, and it appears to be business as usual for LeBron & Co. Toronto knew they had to make some changes if they had a chance against Cleveland if they should meet again in the playoffs this season. They brought in Tucker and Ibaka. Tucker to play James, and Ibaka a big guy that can knock down 3's, and defend the rim, and all the way out to the 3 point line. So what has changed since last year? Cleveland still has James, Love, and Irving, as well as Frye to knock down 3's. The added defenders, when it comes to playing in Cleveland, where the Cavs are 15-1 SU against the East in the playoffs last 16, has done nothing to slow the Cavs. The Cavs offensive trio (Love,Erving, and James), have averaged 72.2ppg against Toronto at home over the last 5 games. Channing Frye has averaged 12.0ppg off the bench shooting 17-26 and 10-17 from deep. His best game was this year, against the "new" defenders, designed to stop him, he dropped 21, and the trio has not been slowed one bit either. The problem for the Cavs is defense. They finished 22nd this year in defensive efficiency. This is the playoffs though right? No! The Cavs allowed 111 points per 100 possessions vs Indiana, worse than their regular season poor numbers. The Cavs posted 112.5ppg vs Indiana, and Toronto, newly acquired defenders and all, have not slowed the Cavs at all. I did throw out the April 12th game, when Cleveland scored 83, because Love, James, and Irving all sat. The Cavs are big on offense, and worse on defense, and their last 51 games as a favorite to  total of greater than 207.5 have seen them go 39-12 to the over. Emerging, healthy, and confident Norman Powell, perhaps supplies another offensive weapon for Toronto as well. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 12.1%, and the play is on the under.

Boston has taken control of the series, by being the first team to win at home, and now have a 3-2 lead in the series. I don't expect the Bulls to go down quietly, and since Rondo went down. So what has happened? The Bulls scored 108.5ppg with Rondo, and 93ppg without him. The assists went from 25pg to 19, and the rebounding margin dropped by 4. Coach Stevens replaced Amir Johnson's minutes with more of Olynyk, and others, Gerald Green, and Rozier getting more of the minutes at guard, and producing. A stagnent offense, and desperate team, means more defense. I think points will be hard to come by tonight, history agrees. The Bulls are 0-8 O/U as a home dog since Valentine's Day. I also have a strong situation on the under based in part on venue change. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 71-44 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 12.1%, and the play is on the over.

A lot will be overlooked regarding the total in this game. That is because last game went to overtime, and the final numbers were highly distorted, with 26 points coming in the extra session. The fact is this is a huge over signal during the regular season, and specifically in the playoffs. When the same teams meet after overtime, and the last game beat the total by greater than 18 points, the over is 39-8-2 ATS since 2005. The total has beaten the number by 9.07ppg. (12ppg in over games). Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 15.5%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 15.5%, and the play is on the over.

The Boston Celtics climbed back into their series with the Chicago Bulls by winning game 3, cutting the series deficit to 1-2. They connected on 17 from deep, shooting 46% from beyond the arc. Despite of this, they managed just 104 total points. The Chicago offense suffered the loss of Rondo, and had just 14 assists for the game, as it is obvious, they are not the same team as they are offensively with Rondo pushing the ball, and getting it in the right places. I expect Boston will not shoot 46% from deep, and Chicago to continue to struggle offensively. This game also fits a playoff total situation that is 253-160 ATS, and 34-16 ATS in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 12.5%, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 12.5%, and the play is on the under.

The Portland Trailblazers have a lot of confidence in their offense, especially at home. They should come out on fire, and put up a lot of points here. If the last 7 meetings in Portland between these clubs has anything to do with it, expect a shootout. The last 7 meetings have led to both teams combining to average 235.4ppg, with 6 of the 7 playing over the total. The Blazers have never had much success at Golden St. where they have dropped 11 straight, and averaged just 103.5ppg. Over that same period however they have produced 113.4ppg at home. Look for this one to play over the total.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 15.0%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 10.6%, and the play is on the under.

This game applies to my strongest playoff totals situations, one that is 32-80 O/U. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 10.4%, and the play is on the under.

This game applies to my strongest playoff totals situations, one that is 32-80 O/U. Make the play on the under.

This game applies to my strongest playoff totals situations, one that is 32-80 O/U. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 12.2%, and the play is on the under.

There is a very key element tied into this selection, and a lot of it has to do with Houston at home, and the offense. The Rockets scored 100 points in each of their last 40 home games, so that part is pretty much a given. here is how I see it. The Rockets scored more than 110 points at home 24 times this season, and went 24-0 SU, 15-8-1 ATS, and 19-4-1 to the over. They score 110 or less in 17 home games, and went 6-11 SU, 3-14 ATS, and 2-14-1 to the over. You can obviously see a distinct line in the sand for this team, and it occurs at the 110 point mark. So let`s examine if they are likely to do it here. here are the teams that held them to 100 or less at home, and that opponent`s defensive NBA rank, based on points per game allowed;

Dallas (2) 4
SA (2) 2
GST (2) 11
TOR 8
BOS 15
WASH 21
MEM 3
SAC 19
ATL 10
MIA 5
IND 14
UTAH 1
DEN 27
DET 7

It becomes pretty clear if you take the top 15 teams defensively in ppg allowed (the top half of the league), just 3 of the 17 times Houston did not score more than 110 points at home it came against teams below the upper half or 17.6% of the time, and in all games just 3 of 41 or a total of 7.3% of all games. The fact that at greater than 110 points, Houston is 82.6% to the over, it looks like a lot of value here. Moreover, the Rockets scored 124.1ppg against the bottom half of the league at home, while allowing 108.The last 10 such opponents all scored 100 against them as well. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 12.3%, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a playoff situation that is 40-16 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a playoff situation that is 22-4 ATS and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 12.3%, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a playoff situation that is 66-39 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The San Antonio Spurs have a great sense for the playoffs. They go into defensive mode, and an already good defense tends to get better. That is especially true, when they face a rather pedestrian offense in Memphis.The Grizzlies have met the Spurs in the playoffs. Since the 2004 season these clubs have faced off for 18 games in the playoffs, with Memphis averaging a woeful 88.6ppg. Since the 2013 season, including last year, the Spurs are 8-0 holding the Grizzlies to 84.4ppg. The Grizzlies have also done a great job holding down the Spurs, who have managed just 100.9ppg. This game also fits a playoff totals situation that is 66-39 ATS to the under as well. Make the play on the under.

The Cleveland Cavs didn't seem very upset finishing as the #2 seed. This team has been making a lot of news for not playing defense, but this is another season, and a whole different mindset. The Cavs took 3 of 4 in the regular season from Indiana, despite allowing 113.5ppg. That is going to have over players chomping at the bit to get down on the over here, as the regular season showed these teams combine to average 231.7ppg in the 4 games played. The Cavs allowed 93.2ppg in the playoffs last year at home, and 90.4ppg before the Finals. I don't think they are as bad defensively as many think, and we will see that in game 1. Cavs also fit a situation that is 253-159 to the under, which is 15-3 to the under in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 163-89 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 278-177 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 195-120 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 480-341 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 194-120 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 275-177 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 15-1 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 295-168 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 295-168 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 295-168 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 14.5%, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 13.1% and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 10.2% and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 10.2% and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 273-177 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 163-88 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 162-115 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of 10.0%, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 943-793 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Pick is on the over

This game fits a situation that is 208-118 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 90-50 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 478-340 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 293-166 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 196-120 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 941-792 ATS,and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 51-10 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 192-120 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 63-35 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 940-792 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 204-117 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 86-35 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 204-116 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 86-35 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 292-166 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 939-792 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 85-34 ATS, and the play is on the under.