Sports Picks & Predictions

This game fits a situation which is 351-226 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 203-124 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 69-24 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 44-6 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 203-124 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 251-134 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 113-57 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 53-26 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 82-36 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 74-26 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 74-26 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 31-5 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 74-26 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 55-8 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 56-32 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 74-26 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Once the NBA schedule reaches its final stages, and the calendar turns to March, the games for elite teams tend to take on a playoff atmosphere. That tends to lead to under the total. What we have seen is sizeable totals, just above the normal range, don't get there as games in March and April played between teams that are better than .625 on the season to a total of more than 195 but less than 210 have gone 91-43-4 to the under, including 12-3 if there is a home dog involved. Play this one under the total.

This game fits a conference tournament situation which is 70-24 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a conference tournament situation which is 70-24 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a conference tournament situation which is 70-24 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a conference tournament situation which is 70-24 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 304-217 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 97-52 ATS, and the play is on the under.

 This game fits a situation that is 45-8 ATS, and the play is on the over.

 This game fits a situation which is 242-125-4 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a 242-125 ATS situation, and the play is on the under.

 This game fits a totals situation which is 242-125-4 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 200-122 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a 242-125 ATS situation, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a 795-655 ATS situation, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is171-105 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This situation plays on the fact that we have a couple of teams off a peak performance and feeling good about themselves. That usually energizes a team, and energy usually translates itself to the defensive end of the court. We have one team off a 20 or more point home win, and at home again, while the opponent is off a 10 or more point road win, and feeling good as well. Let's look at each step here:

1) team off a home win of 20 or more points

2) Opponent off a road win of 10 or more points

3) Total is 191 or higher (don't want too low of a total)

4) Team that won at home by 20 or more did so by not allowing their opponent to score more than 98 points.

5) This game is not a division game (familiarity factor)

This has gone 14-55-2 O/U showing the under at 79.7%! The z-score here is 4.87. This plays on Boston/Charlotte under tonight.

This game fits a situation that is 201-144 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 77-31 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation which is 122-81 ATS and the play is on the under

This game fits a totals situation which is 55-14 ATS and the play is on the over

HIGH TOTAL, GOOD TEAMS, LOOKS LIKE AN UNDER IN THIS SPOT:

Once the total reaches the 200 mark in the NBA, it starts to be considered a high total. The fact is in the last 24,144 NBA games there have been just 7,527 of them with a posted total of as much as 200, or just 31% of all games played.

Tonight we have a game of interest that exploits these high totals set by the oddsmaker, when we have a team off a road favorite loss, and back on the road again.

Teams tend to play with more focus after a loss, and are hungrier, and typically dig in defensively above their normal level of play. So let's lay out exactly what we are looking for:

1) Total is 200 or more.

2) Team lost their last game as a road favorite, and on the road again

3) Both teams are ovr .500

4) Line +3 or more (a true road dog)

These teams are 18-54-1 O/U or play to the under 75% of the time! This has gone 4-1-1 ATS so far tghis season, by taking the under. Tonight we have Toronto vs Dallas active in this system to play under the total.

This game fits a very active and long term total situation which has played to a 791-653 mark to the under. Make the play on the under.

This is a late season NBA system and let`s call it the 55 system. This game is based on triple 55`s as you will soon see. 1) Game number is greater than 55 2) Winning percentage is greater than 55 3) Opponent winning percentage is greater than 55 4) Division game 5) regular season 6) Winning percentage is higher than opponents winning percentage Once you get past the all-star game,and past game 55, and you have a match up of teams better than .550, both teams typically need the game to advance or maintain themselves in a given playoff seed. That usually leads to a playoff type battle in the half court, and the under has dominated. These teams under the above conditions, especially in a division game, have played to a 105-170-4 O/U mark. That means that the under has covered 61.8% of the time in a huge sample size of almost 300 games. This is the 19th season for this system, and it has never produced less than 50% winners! Tonight Chicago and Milwaukee will fit the bill, and likely play a game that falls shy of the total.

My strongest total system of all with a z-score of 6.1 is active for this game. It is 240-125-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

My strongest total system of all with a z-score of 6.1 is active for this game. It is 240-125-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

My strongest total system of all with a z-score of 6.1 is active for this game. It is 240-125-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

My strongest total system of all with a z-score of 6.1 is active for this game. It is 240-125-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

After a considerable layoff, NBA teams seem to be bankrupt on the defensive end in their first game back. It seems that in the right spot, scoring rules the roost. This situation depicts that, with the following parameters: 1) month =2 2) rest greater than 3 3) Home favorite 4) opponent rest is less than 5 5) Winning percentage greater than .420 6) Not a division game These teams are: 52-16-1 ATS covering to the over covering 76.5% of all games!  This plays on San Antonio/Golden St. over tonight.

This game fits a situation which is 43-11 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 31-4 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 38-7 ATS, and the play is on the over.

The San Antonio Spurs have won 9 of their last 11 games on the season, and appear to be getting defensive in the process. The Spurs have held 29 opponents to under 100 points this season, and the value shows up on the total in this game because they are playing in the Eastern Conference vs Toronto. The West has better teams, better offenses, and on the season the Spurs have allowed 99.1ppg to Western teams, and just 93.9ppg vs Eastern teams. Those numbers fit in well for San Antonio who has played 4 straight to the under on the road vs a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600, while Toronto is now 8-1 to the under in their last 9 at home vs a team with a winning road record. This game also fits a very long term totals situation which is 463-366-12 ATS. Make the play on the under.

The Chicago Bulls hammered New Orleans on the road last night 107-72. That gave the starters a lot of rest as they head to Orlando with no rest. Starters played a grand total of 128 minutes, or an average of 25.6 minutes per starter, or just about a half of a game. That should leave them fresh on no rest. The Bulls games have averaged 201.8 points this season, and overall a 25-25 record on totals in their 50 games. That does not begin to tell the story. They have seen home games average 205.2 going 17-9 to the over, but have been a much different team on the road, where they average 198.7 and 17 of 26 have played under the total. The last 33 times these teams have met, the highest posted total was 206.5, and the last 7 meetings none higher than 191, yet the last 13 have seen a 10-3 mark to the under. This game fits a huge 234-121-2 ATS total situation. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a huge situation that is 110-57-5 ATS ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Golden St. Warriors have averaged 117.7ppg in their last 18 games while going 15-3 straight up. That has bettors flocking to the betting window, to get in on the over for their long anticipated encounter vs the Atlanta Hawks. These have been the best two teams in the NBA this season, and the winner will be crowned the best team in the league, at least for now. Golden St. has a profile of scoring that is diminished with the quality of opponent and it is continuously worse. Their games average 208.5ppg in all games on the road, 204.7ppg vs teams that are better than .600, 202.8ppg vs teams better than .650 and finally 197ppg vs teams that are better than .700. They also fit an under situation which is 229-135 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 159-101 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 53-18 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 158-101 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Milwaukee Bucks have made a quick and decisive turnaround from a year ago, and look to be a playoff caliber team,  Bucks boast a 37-15-1 ATS mark when taking on an opponent that allowed 100+ in their last game in their last 53 in this spot, so it appears they have been able to take advantage of a team not committed to the defensive end. Toronto had a taxing last 2 games on the road, as both went to overtime, and the commitment to the defensive end tonight will likely be lacking. Milwaukee allowed 100+ in 2 straight games prior to holding Portland to 88, but that is misleading, as their was an inordinate amount of shots taken in that game with 171. This game fits a totals situation which is 120-69 to the over, and is already 3-0-1 this year. Make the play on the over in this one.

The Miami Heat are constituted completely different from a year ago, as LeBron James has moved on, and now Dwayne Wade is sitting as he is out with yet another injury. Hassan Whiteside has been a great story for the Heat recording a triple double a week ago, and contributing 16 points and 24 rebounds his last game. Despite his efforts the rest of the Heat roster, outside Chris Bosh is pedestrian at best, and although they held a strong Dallas offense to 92 points, they managed just 72 themselves, and outside of Whiteside, they were 22-77 from the floor. Boston has a lot of young legs looking for minutes, and held high scoring Houston to just 93 points on the road, but the continued struggle of the offense (87 points), left them short. Overall there are more working parts for both of these teams on the defensive end, as players fight for minutes, and know the best way to get them is to play hard on the defensive end. heat brings in a 20-6 mark to the under in their last 26 on the road. Sunday NBA games have historically played under the total, and this one fits a situation that is 196-121-7 to the under, and is 14-7 so far this season. Play is on the under.

The San Antonio Spurs have had injury issues all season, and have not put together the type of season we saw them do last season that took them all the way to an NBA Championship. Despite all that they are still 30-17 on the season. The one thing this team has always been able to lean on is their defensive intensity. It is no surprise that their 9-2 run over their last 11 games has been ignited by the defense, as they have allowed 90.5ppg in the 11 games. The Clippers after allowing 100+ in 10 of 13 games, have now allowed 100+ in 7 of 16, and have turned things up defensively themselves. That provides the signature for a situation that is active for this game tat has been 52-18 to the under in the last 70 occurrences. Maake the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 121-81 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 55-13 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 119-69 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 460-364 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 195-120 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 194-120 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 460-363 ATS, and the play is on the under.

I am adding this late because of the timing of weather that will effect this game today. Rain, snow, sleet, do not have an impact on totals in NFL football games, but wind is a huge issue, and it effects the punting game, the return game on special teams, field goal attempts and the passing game. Historically the under is a huge producer with big winds. This is right from NOAA regarding Seattle weather today:

Showers. High near 51. Breezy, with a southwest wind 18 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

The 60 MPH gusts that occurred this morning will lessen, but gusts to 40 MPH likely, and sustained winds 20-25 MPH.

Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 159-103, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation which is 60-24, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a totals situation which is 60-24, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 52-36 on the total, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 226-134, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 194-119, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 34-7, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a total situation based on both teams on ATS winning streaks, and higher totals. This is 58-23-1 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits an under situation which is 455-363 ATS and it is 18-6-1 so far this year. The play in this game is on the under.

This game fits an under situation which is 455-363 ATS and it is 18-6-1 so far this year. The play in this game is on the under.

This game fits an under situation which is 455-363 ATS and it is 18-6-1 so far this year. The play in this game is on the under.

This game fits an under situation which is 455-363 ATS and it is 18-6-1 so far this year. The play in this game is on the under.

This game fits a Bowl totals situation which is 51-20 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation which has a Bowl record of 26-5, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation which has a Bowl record of 26-5, and the play is on the under.

This game fits 2 Bowl total situations, one is 48-21, the other is 25-5, and the play is on the under.

December Bowl teams that lost their last game in a conference championship game are 22-3 to the under in their Bowl game. Make the play on the under.

December Bowl teams that lost their last game in a conference championship game are 22-3 to the under in their Bowl game. Make the play on the under.

The SEC has had some strong defensive teams in Bowl games over the course of the last 35 years. The fact is they have sent 22 dogs to Bowl games, that allowed less than 16 points per game, and the highest combined score in any of them has been 55 points. Make the play on the under.

A team playing to a total of 200 or higher, that covered their last game facing a team on a 6 game or longer ats streak play over to a 57-23 mark in the 80 occurrences in the NBA since 1996. Make the play on the over.

The Louisville offense has been much better over the last half of the season, and they enter having scored 30+ points in each of their last 5 games. They faced some good defenses and scored 31 vs Miami, FL, 31 vs Notre Dame, 38 vs BC, and 31 vs Florida St. I think they can score against Georgia. The Bull Dogs score against virtually everyone having been held in the 20s just 2 times all season, and one of those was due to 4 turnovers. This game is going to be higher scoring than expected. Georgia is on a 20-7 run in their last 27 to the over, and 12-3 over off a loss. Cards late season improved offense has them at 4-0-1 to the over in their last 5. Make the play on the over in this one.

The LSU Tigers are coming off a huge running game vs Texas A&M, a game that saw them run for 384 yards. That sets up the total for this game, as all Bowl teams that come into their Bowl game after gaining more than 360 yards on the ground are 14-0-1 to the under in their Bowl game. Make the play on the under.

Teams off a road division win, and now playing inside the division again, are 157-100-3 to the under since 2004. Make the play on the under.

 Not too many teams defending the way the Clemson Tigers did in their last 8 games. Clemson held their 8 opponents to 101 total points or just 12.6ppg. This is also a team with a very limited offense, so in order for them to win the defense has to excel. Oklahoma was fair against very good offensive teams, but dominated poor offensive teams, as their 5 games vs teams with limited offense resulted in a total of 54 points allowed. I think the Clemson offense is closer to those 5 teams than the rest of the Sooner`s schedule, and I think this is going to be a much lower scoring game than many think. This game also fits a 49-21-2 situation that plays on the under. Under gets the call here.

This game fits a game 16 situation which is 22-3. The play is on the under

 This game fits a Bowl situation which is 14-1 on the total. Bowl teams with 9 wins facing a Bowl team with 7 to 9 wins, with a total greater than 59, are 14-1 to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a strong total situation. When you have 2 bad NBA teams from game 20 on both with a winning percentage of less than .350 and both on 0 rest, there is no defense, and the over is 57-23 ATS. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a Bowl situation which is 14-1 on the total. Bowl teams with 9 wins facing a Bowl team with 7 to 9 wins, with a total greater than 59, are 14-1 to the under. Make the play on the under.

 This game fits a pair of Bowl total situations of 47-20 and 25-5. Make the play on the under

This game fits situations which are 47-20 and 25-4, and the play is on the under.

Tim Beckman has not had great success since coming to Illinois, but his team should be focused here. That first season saw Beckman's Illini get off to a 2-1 start and then proceeded to get thumped by Louisiana Tech 52-24. Illinois never won a game the rest of the year. A lot of upperclassmen remember that beat down, and I think the Illini come in as a motivated group, which should slow down the average Bull Dogs attack. The problem is an Illinois offense that scored less than 20 points in 5 games, against a very elite Tech pass defense. This game fits 3 situations which are 47-20, 21-4, and 20-3. Make the play on the under.

This game fits part of my NBA X-MAS DAY SITUATION that has been 16-4 the last 10 years including a subset of 8-0, make the play on the under.

The Fresno St. Bull Dogs had one of the most potent offenses in NCAAF last year, but they lost all the key players, 2 of which are now playing and contributing on Sunday. The offensive attack is significantly below average. Rice is a good passing team, but Conference USA did not have any good defenses this season, and while they scored 41 or more points in 4 of their first 7 games, they never got over 31 from that point on. Fresno St. lost their Championship game to Boise St. and teams that lose their Conference Championship game are 20-2 to the under since 2006 in their Bowl game, if it is a December Bowl. Make the play on the under.

Central Michigan and W. Kentucky both come into this game at 7-5 on the season. W. Kentucky and C. Michigan are both good passing attacks, while the better defensive team is Central Michigan. W. Kentucky scored 164 points in their last 3 games, at 54.7ppg. That makes them the 12th highest scoring Bowl team since 1980 considering just their 3 most recent games. One of those games featured 2 teams that both scored 164+ over their last 3 games, the other 10 averaged just 58 total points in their Bowl game. This game also fits a situation that is 21-6 to the under, based on a high scoring offensive team (40ppg or more) in a December Bowl game. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 53-13, an the play is on the over.