Sports Picks & Predictions

This game fits a situation which has had a +15.4% ROI over the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +27.1% the last 11 years and the play is on the under.

The Golden St. Warriors will open the 2nd round without Stephen Curry. That didn't seem to make much difference in their last game as they rolled over Houston. Portland advanced, beating an injury plagued LA Clippers team. I think when people think of Golden St. they think offense, and perhaps rightly so, as the Warriors since May 1st of 2 years ago (2 years to the day), have averaged 111.4ppg at home in the regular season, and have allowed 99.3ppg. Those numbers change dramatically in the playoffs, where the under-estimated defense of the Warriors has carried the day. The same period as above has seen the Warriors at home, average just 101.0ppg in the playoffs, allowing 93.2ppg. They go from games averaging 210.5ppg, which would make this total look about right, to 194.2ppg in the playoffs. That is a 16ppg difference. Golden St. has allowed just 2 of their last 19 playoff opponents to top the 100 point mark! The defense is the best kept secret in the NBA! That has led this team to a 3-18 O/U mark in their last 21 home playoff games, including 1-12 O/U if the line is higher than -6. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +16.3% the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

The Miami Heat, after opening a 2-0 series lead over the Charlotte Hornets, have dropped 3 straight games, and face elimination in game 6 in Charlotte. The Heat have been unable to solve the Hornet's swarming defensive efforts, and have shot 42% or less in the last 3 games, after coming into game 3 having shot 42% or better in 14 of 15. The Heat are also turning the ball over way too much losing the turnover battle 45-24 in the 3 losses. Charlotte has been at their best defensively at home as a favorite, vs good teams, and it has led to a 0-9 O/U mark on the season when playing as a home favorite vs a team that has a winning percentage of greater than .530. The average points scored in these games is 178.7ppg. Miami has really struggled offensively in the opposite role, as a road dog. Miami is 3-15 O/U on the season as a road dog to a total of less than 202. The total points scored in those games has been 188.4ppg. I also have a playoff situation based in part on a closeout game, off of a series of under games prior. That situation is 10-48 O/U, and active tonight as well, and has beaten the total offered by 11.55ppg in the 58 previous contests. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 47-10 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Atlanta Hawks opened up a 2-0 lead in their first round series with Boston. The shooting in this series for the most part has been awful with Boston shooting 38.6% and 27.2% from deep, and Atlanta just 40.6% and just 30% from deep. The series has seen 3 of the 4 games go under the total, but this one will be different. The odds makers have been forced to hold the total down, especially after last game which went under, despite going to overtime. the fact is, this has been a race horse paced series. There has been an average of 180 shots, 66 from deep. Past games that show an average of over 170 shots, and more than 61 three's have played over 12 of 16 times, and the pace warranted a total of 207, but they scored 216 on average. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +13.2% the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +7.1% the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +7.1% the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

While this series has produced less than 80 points in 2 games for Dallas in this series, the result was not a half-court slowdown type of game, that would often lead to those numbers, it has been anomalous poor shooting that has created the numbers. This in itself adds value, to what should be an extremely high scoring game 5. It is also being played to a total that has been held down by the "false" results. let's take a deep look at what has happened here. These teams are averaging 164 shots per game, 48 attempted 3 pointers, and 53 free throw attempts. let's break those numbers down historically in the NBA playoffs.

1)  SHOT ATTEMPTS

AVG  164  (this series)

NBA playoff games with greater than 160 shot attempts have gone 225-187-5 O/U  54.6%, and 174-137-3 O/U with 164 or more attempted 55.9%

2)  THREE PT ATTEMPTS

AVG  48   (this series)

NBA playoff games with greater than 45 three point attempts are 236-204-6 ATS 53.6% O/U

3)  THREE PT FG MADE:

AVG  16 (this series)

NBA playoff games with more than 15 made 3pt FG's are 216-121-6  O/U  64.1% and 391-281-12 O/U 58.2% if 12 or more are made.

4) FREE THROW ATTEMPTS:

AVG  53  (this series)

NBA playoff games with 50 or more free throws attempted are 364-239-9 O/U  60.4%  O/U

FINALLY:

If one of the 4 above things happens, the OVER becomes likely in and of itself, and all 4 are taken from a lower number than the average of this series!

If FG attempts are greater than 160 (164 avg this series), and made 3's are 12 or more (16 avg this series), and free throw attempts are 50 or more(53 avg this series0, we get an off the charts 108-43 O/U result in past playoff games 71.5%. The average total in those games was 203.8ppg, and points scored were 216.7ppg. That is a 13ppg margin using numbers that are 25% less than the average produced in this series so far. The bottom line is the pace of the games has proven this total very worthy with lots of value. My NBA PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER.

This game fits a situation which is 277-172 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 238-150 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 276-158 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +18.4% over the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has an ROI of +7.1% over the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 50-19 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 50-19 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has had an ROI of +7.2% over the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

This series was projected to be up and down the court, and the game 1 total projected just that with a closing total of 225. That eroded after a lackluster game 1 performance that saw the total come up very short. Game 2 saw odds makers shave 14 points off the total and the game went over. Now they have bumped the total by 4 points or so, as the series heads to Houston. The pace however remains high octane with an average of 167.5 shots per game, despite a lot of free throws (60 per game). Both teams have put up a total of 48 from long range. Those numbers based on the team's average percentage, combined with defensive stats of their opponent, would show a true total of 216.5ppg, so there is a couple of points worth of line value. The true value comes from the home vs road numbers of these teams, and without getting into great detail, they suggest an additional 4.5 points, offering a clear value on over the total. That combined with a propensity of past playoff games that saw a same series decline in the closing total of 10 points or more from game 1 to game 3 (venue change), to play well over 60% to the over, cements the deal. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +7.3% the last 11 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +12.9% the last 11 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +7.3% the last 11 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +7.3% the last 11 years and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +9.7% over the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +9.7% over the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

From game 1:

The Miami Heat really struggled on offense for much of the season. They were dependent on a strong defense to carry the load. It was time for a change, and the Heat turned up the tempo along about February 8th. prior to that date through 52 games, the Heat were 16-35 O/U, averaging 95.9ppg and allowing 95.9ppg. That was the turning point as over their last 30 games they scored 107.2ppg, allowing 102.7ppg. Charlotte was similar from that exact same date, averaging 101ppg through 2/7 and 106.3ppg from that point on. The total has not caught up to these teams yet.

Nothing has changed in my estimation, as game 1 went over, and the total remains static. The pace of game 1 was slowed by free throws, which saw 58 attempted, but that stops the clock and allows points to be scored. despite a blowout, which typically lowers scoring, the game went well over the total. Playoff games immediately following a team that scored more than 110 points at home playing the same team at home again are 31-17 O/U, including 10-4 O/U in round 1. Looking for this one to once again top the 200 point, in fact my model projects 206.5 points, so plenty of value remains. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +12.7% over the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has produced an ROI of +13.0% the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has produced an ROI of +14.4% the last 11 years, and the play is on the over.

This total has come down a full 7 points or so vs the opener, that played out a lot more low scoring than expected. It has forced the odds makers hands, and they have made an adjustment, but is it enough? No team wants to try and play a fast full court game in the playoffs against Golden St. Golden St. is also a much better defensive team than they get credit for. Looking back at playoff games originating in the 2013 season, played at Golden St., the Warriors are 2-13 O/U. They are a sexy over play by the public, because they are thought of as a scoring machine, but that has not been true in the playoffs. Since the opening of the 2013 season, Golden St. has averaged 111.4ppg at home, but just 101.9ppg in the playoffs. They allow just 93.3ppg in the playoffs compared to 99.3ppg in the regular season. Combined they are 15.5ppg lower scoring in the post-season at home, so the 7 point adjustment may look huge, but it is far from enough. I also have a situation where the Warriors are 2-17 O/U at home in all playoff games. There is another situation that qualifies here that is 99-147 O/U in the regular season, including 2-10 O/U in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

Whenever you have a 1,2, or 3 seed in the first round playing in the NBA playoffs at home, to a line of -10 or more, the upset simply does not occur. These teams are 44-0 SU. Taking the same teams however, seeded 1,2, or 3, playing at home as a 10 or more point favorite in the first round to a total of 189-209.5, the under is 18-2 ATS, covering by just about 8ppg. Make the play on the under.

The Miami Heat really struggled on offense for much of the season. They were dependent on a strong defense to carry the load. It was time for a change, and the Heat turned up the tempo along about February 8th. prior to that date through 52 games, the Heat were 16-35 O/U, averaging 95.9ppg and allowing 95.9ppg. That was the turning point as over their last 30 games they scored 107.2ppg, allowing 102.7ppg. Charlotte was similar from that exact same date, averaging 101ppg through 2/7 and 106.3ppg from that point on. The total has not caught up to these teams yet, and this game also fits a 34-10 O/U situation. Make the play on the over.

Whenever you have a 1,2, or 3 seed in the first round playing in the NBA playoffs at home, to a line of -10 or more, the upset simply does not occur. These teams are 44-0 SU. Taking the same teams however, seeded 1,2, or 3, playing at home as a 10 or more point favorite in the first round to a total of 189-209.5, the under is 18-2 ATS, covering by just about 8ppg. Make the play on the under.

Whenever you have a 1,2, or 3 seed in the first round playing in the NBA playoffs at home, to a line of -10 or more, the upset simply does not occur. These teams are 44-0 SU. Taking the same teams however, seeded 1,2, or 3, playing at home as a 10 or more point favorite in the first round to a total of 189-209.5, the under is 18-2 ATS, covering by just about 8ppg. Make the play on the under.

These teams played some high scoring games during the regular season, as they combined to average 213 points per game. Now we take a look at the odds maker and he says this game will come up well short of that number, in fact almost 10 points short. That sure makes it enticing to give a strong look to the over, but the fact is, these are the playoffs. last year the NBA had an average total of 200.1ppg and the playoffs average total was 201.3ppg. Surprisingly higher. So why then are the odds makers dropping this one nearly a full 10 points from regular season results? For starters Boston's road totals vs .550 teams or better show 203ppg. Atlanta at home vs .550 or better teams have seen 200ppg scored. I see some line value here. The Hawks are also 23-5 to the under since 2008 in a playoff game at home vs a team better than .550. This game also fits a situation which is 211-143 to the under, including 19-12 in the playoffs. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +7.3% over the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has had an ROI of +10.0% the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

The Toronto Raptors are one of just six teams that held opponents to less than 100ppg this season, and the Pacers were not far behind allowing 100.5ppg. The Pacers offense has struggled on the road down the stretch, failing to score 100 points in any of their last 3 road games, and averaging less than 100 on the road in their last 12 on the road. The fact is, the Pacers have the lowest scoring average of any NBA team when it comes to the playoffs where they average 87.3ppg in their last 37 playoff games, on the road, and have allowed jut 92.1ppg. This game also fits a playoff situation which is 55-34 to the under as well. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 89-50 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +31.9% the last 11 years, and he play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +9.8% the last 11 years, and he play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which fits a situation which is 214-145 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +7.5% over the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 93-53  ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has an ROI of +10.1% over the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 140-94  ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 125-85  ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 59-24  ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 24-0-1  ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 235-148 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 235-148 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 235-148 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 125-74 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 60-23 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +7.4% the last 11 years, make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 211-139 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 192-146 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which has produced an ROI of +7.3% the last 11 years, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 124-82 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 176-112 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 176-112 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 176-112 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 41-11 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 92-53 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 82-43 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 502-394 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 123-74 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 502-394 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 123-74 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 61-32 ATS, and the pay is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 51-31 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 139-94 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The NIT, which many refer to "Not In Tournament", will crown a Champion tonight. The oddity here is the fact that not since the 1987-88 season, or 29 years ago, did the NIT Final not include a power conference team. That streak ends tonight as Valparaiso takes on George Washington. The fact is, only 4 teams from a non-power conference have won the NIT over the 29 year period, but after tonight, that will become 5. Valparaiso is all about the half-court, and using the shot clock. That style seems to be personified when tackling a very competent opponent. The Crusaders allow just 59.2ppg against teams that were better than .700 on their schedule this season, scoring just 64.7ppg themselves. These teams have both defended very well, and one reason they are not in the NCAA Tournament is they did not shoot well under pressure to get there, and with the magnitude looming large in the championship game, expect this game to fall short of the total. None of the last 5 NIT Championship games have seen more than 130 total points scored, even with last year's overtime contest. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 41-12 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 175-112 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 74-31 ATS and the play is on the under.

The break from the NCAA Tourney allows the NIT to take center stage tonight at Madison Square Garden. A game of interest for me is George Washington vs San Diego St. The Aztecs under Steve Fisher have been a defensive clinic the last several years, and even better this season. The Aztecs led all teams in lowest FG%age shooting by their opponent at 37.1%. They defend the entire court, and in their 3 NIT games have not allowed anyone to connect on 40% shooting or better than 28% from deep. The problem for San Diego is the offense. The Aztecs were decent at home where they averaged 71.1ppg, but on neutral courts this year, their 6 games saw them average 61.8ppg. George Washington is a very thin team, and just 6 players get significant minutes in games. San Diego St. is 55-31 to the under over the last 3 years, and with a new shooting background, nerves, and defense at its best, make the play on the under in this one.

This game fits a situation which is 67-29 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 180-113 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 82-45 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 55-19 ATS and the play is on the under.

The Syracuse Orange were squarely on the bubble, and the selection committee voted them into the Big Dance. they have certainly taken advantage of the situation, as they have gotten to the Elite 8, and are 1 win away from the Final Four. Virginia has had another great season, and it has been led by a defense that is very stingy. Syracuse is also a very good defense, and in the NCAA Tournament. The advantage in the NCAA Tournament is clear for Syracuse who since 2009, covering 6 NCAA Tournaments and 19 games, the Cuse has allowed just 57.0ppg! these teams have met twice over the last 2 years with 1 game scoring 138 points the other 106. The fact of the 2 games however is worth looking at. The game that saw 138 total points scored saw less than 100 shots taken in total, but the 21-48 mark from deep at 43.8%, and almost half of all shots is not likely to occur again. The 106 point game saw less than 100 shots, and just 12 made 3's. The total here is set too high. Make the play on the under.

The Philadelphia 76ers have a storied and successful history as a franchise, but none of that has been achieved lately. They have not won 50 games in a season since 2002, and their last 3 make it tough to be a Sixer's fan, as they have compiled a woeful 46-190 SU record, with just 9 of the wins coming this season. The biggest problem in an era where NBA scoring is way up the Sixers score just 96.2ppg on the road. I think the total is way over done here, as it is the highest total the Sixers will have played to on the road since March 14th of the 2013 season! History also is on their side as this game fits a totals situation that has seen the under play out to a 72-31 mark, including a stellar 11-2 mark this season. Make the play on the under in this one.

This game features a pair of teams that were squarely on the bubble, and both were selected for the tournament. They have both arrived at the Sweet 16, ensuring a double-digit seed advances to the Elite 8. There is hidden value on the total here, as Syracuse, as most know by now plays a zone for the entire game. The Syracuse zone is certainly more solvable vs conference teams that see it all the time, but not so much for a team that does not see it, and is used to going against a man-to-man defense. The advantage in the NCAA Tournament is clear for Syracuse who since 2009, covering 6 NCAA Tournaments and 18 games, the Cuse has allowed just 56.9ppg! Consider that the top 17 games on the Gonzaga schedule this year played 12-5 to the under, and this toal looks to be over done. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 180-112 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 72-31 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game is going to be about imposing will on the other, as the styles are sharply contrasted here. Virginia is dynamic on defense, and likes the half-court, while Iowa St. likes to get up and down and put up a lot of shots quickly. The Cavs allow just 59.5ppg on the season, and have had a pair of games vs Duke and NC allowing 61 and 63 points. perhaps the clearest indication if Iowa St. can be slowed down came in their 2 games vs Oklahoma St. who plays a similar half-court offense. The Cyclones managed just 58 and 64 points in the two games, averaging just 55 shots per game. This season when a team that has allowed less than 60ppg has faced a team averaging 80 or more the under has been 42-31 ATS. (42-28 ATS 60% when the total is 134 or more). Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 137-93 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 97-55 ATS, and the play is on the under.

I don't think there is a magic number when it comes to betting situations, but in the case of the triple 55's it tends to fit the equation for today's situation. Today in the newsletter we will offer what we call our triple 55's total betting system that has been long on beating NBA totals since 1996. It has yielded 60% winners with over 300 games in the data set, so we certainly have proven that it works. let's get right down to the numbers, and they all revolve around 55:

1)  Game number is greater than 55

2)  Winning percentage is greater than 55

3) Opponent winning percentage is greater than 55.

4)  Division game.

This situation has blasted the books to the tune of a:

122-184-6 O/U mark, or 60.1% winners on the under.

That will be put to the test tonight. Make the play on the under in this contest.

The Philadelphia 76ers have benefitted by their poor performances the last 2 years to be drafting in the lottery position of the 1st round. Despite all that, they are going backward at 9-62 on the season. That brings their record to 46-189 since the start of the 2013 season, with no end to the losing in sight. The Nuggets won 59 games 4 years ago, but have not made the playoffs since, and are struggling in their own rite. These teams both have key contributors missing tonight, with Gallinari sitting for the Nuggets and Okafor for the 76ers. That should make offense a bit tougher, and the fact that both teams could be sniffing a rare win, the defensive intensity should be enough to hold the scoring down. Top that off with the fact that this game fits a situation that is 71-31 ATS to the under, and the total looks like a solid play. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 69-33, and the play is on the over.

The Spurs playing at home off a loss have been dialed in on defense, as they have allowed opponents just 85.6ppg in these games, and this game also fits a situation that is 885-748 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under in this one.

The Magic has not been a good defensive team this season, but what they have done over their last 11 games is put a lot more effort into that end of the floor. The Magic have played 8 of their last 11 to the under, and I think the fact that Detroit has allowed 50% or better shooting in each of their last 3 will be better focused on the back end of the court tonight as well. This game also fits a situation that is 91-52  ATS to the under, and active tonight. Make the play on the under.

I don't think there is a magic number when it comes to betting situations, but in the case of the triple 55's it tends to fit the equation for today's situation. Today in the newsletter we will offer what we call our triple 55's total betting system that has been long on beating NBA totals since 1996. It has yielded 60% winners with over 300 games in the data set, so we certainly have proven that it works. let's get right down to the numbers, and they all revolve around 55:

1)  Game number is greater than 55

2)  Winning percentage is greater than 55

3) Opponent winning percentage is greater than 55.

4)  Division game.

This situation has blasted the books to the tune of a:

122-184-6 O/U mark, or 60.1% winners on the under.

That will be put to the test tonight. Make the play on the under in this contest.

I think the intensity will be high here, and the scoring lower than expected, and in fact this game fits a situation that is 175-111 ATS to the under, and all things considered the total looks to be too high for this tilt. Make the play on the under.

The total here is also showing some value as both these teams are efficient on offense, and each likes to get up and down the floor. The Cougars average 87.1ppg on their home floor, and have topped the 90 point mark here 9 times already this season. Creighton will be a willing partner in a track meet. Make the play on the over.

Scoring is way up in the NBA this season, but that has not stopped the Miami defense. They are 1 of just 6 NBA teams that allow less than 100 points a game, as they are #4 in fewest points aloowed this season. The problem for the Heat is they also score less than 100ppg as they rank #23 in the NBA in that department. I trust teams that play defense to control the tempo of the game, as Miami prefers the half-court game, and their 40-29 record on the season compared to the .377 winning percentage of the Pelicans indicates they should be in control tonight. This game fits a situation that plays under the total to a 34-10 ATS mark when one of the teams has been playing over the total in 6 straight games or more, along with a couple other factors. Make the play on the under in this one.

The Boston Celtics after posting 14 straight wins at home, have now dropped their last 2 at the Garden. The dominating feature of their 14 game home winning streak was not the offense, it was a defense that held 7 of the 14 opponents to under 100 points, one of which was this Magic team that scored just 94. This might be the place to bring the defense again as the Magic have failed to top the 100 point mark in 4 of their last 5 road games, and overall have played 7 of their last 10 to the under. Boston may be helped by the fact thet this game fits a situation which is 70-21 ATS, including 9-2 ATS this year, that plays on certain teams to play a low scoring game. Make the play on the under in this one.