Sports Picks & Predictions

This game fits a situation which is 53-26 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 77-27 ATS, and the play is on the under.

 This game fits a situation which is 232-144 ATS, and the play is on the under

 This game fits a situation which is 865-728 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation which is 268-148 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation which is 495-388 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation which is 77-27 ATS, and the play is on the under

This game fits a situation which is 110-55 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 134-67 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 62-24 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 78-40 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 122-51 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 68-24 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 56-17 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 103-38 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 55-18 ATS, the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 865-726 ATS, the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 865-726 ATS, the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 73-25 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 30-6 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 41-10 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 32-8 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 119-59 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 33-8 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 63-26 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 40-10 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 40-10 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 84-40 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 43-14 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 862-726 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Bradley Bears are having a nightmare season as they are off to a 4-21 start. they may feel some comfort playing at home tonight against the Loyola, Chicago Ramblers who are just 11-13 on the season. Home court is an equalizer as Loyola is just 3-8 on the road, while Bradley is 3-9 at home. I'm interested in the total here, as these teams combine to average 127.5 total points per game, and Loyola comes in a very hot shooting team having scored 247 points in their last 3 games, the highest 3 game stretch for them of the season at 82.3ppg. The Ramblers have shot over 50% in each of their last 3. Bradley has also been a hot offensive team putting up 204 points in their last 3, at 68ppg, and have had their top 2 highest shooting percentage games in back to back games on the season. Both these teams should feel they can run on the other, and both shooting with confidence right now. The low total set here is the lowest of the season by 6 points for any game, and with the shot clock lowered for the 2015 season, all games with a total of less than 130 have connected on 72% to the over. covering by an average margin of 8.88ppg. This also fits a situation that has seen the over go 77-21 ATS. My NCAA basketball total of the year is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 862-726 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 37-10 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 861-725 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 17-2 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 58-19 ATS and the play is on the over

This game fits a situation which is 861-725 ATS, and the play is on the under.

The Orlando Magic is in a free fall, losers of 17 of their last 20 games. It is clear to see why as this team has been brutally bad offensively, generating 87.7ppg in their last 20 games. Atlanta, just less than 3 weeks ago, held the Magic to an ugly 34.5% shooting, and just 6-22 from deep. The hawks are allowing less than 100 points a game, and have already shutdown this Orlando offense in dramatic fashion, and this certainly doesn't look like the coming out party spot for the struggling Orlando offense, that has shot 42% or less in half their most recent 18 games. This game fits a 269-166 situation on the low side of the total. Make the play on the under.

The Philadelphia 76ers are a long way from becoming a competitive team, and playing with 0 rest certainly does not enhance their chances. They may be able to compete here vs a Brooklyn team that looked to be on the rise a year ago, making the playoffs, but this year`s team is not nearly up to the same standard. The nets will also be playing this game with no rest, and that sets the stage for a lot of points here, as both teams are not committed to the defensive end, and both will be playing on no rest here. History shows us from game 20 on in the NBA season, when 2 teams square off that are both under .350 on the season, and both are on 0 rest, we end up with much higher scoring games, than what the averages say and often soar over the total, in this case 59-25-2 to the over, beating the total by 6.61 points per contest, a significant edge. Make the play on the over.

The Citadel Bulldogs are a fun tem to watch as they shuttle plsyers in and out, go 11 deep, and run the floor for 40 minutes. They have averaged 89.4ppg on the season, but the caveat is they allow over 93ppg on the season. mercer will be one of the best defensive teams they have faced this season, as the bears allow just 39.1% shooting against them, and have been even tougher at home where they allow a very stingy 36.4%. The Bears held Citadel to 39.1% shooting in the first meeting this season on the road, and should better those numbers at home. The Bears allowing just 59.5ppg on their home court this season, will have this one hard pressed to get into the 170s, and this game also fits a situation that is 96-29 to the under. Make the play on the under in this one.

This game fits a situation which is 860-723 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 168-111 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 90-48 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 306-217 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 89-48 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 859-721 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 77-39 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 229-143 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 229-143 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 124-75 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 64-22 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 859-720 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 859-718 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 859-718 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 55-18 ATS and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 172-74 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 172-74 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 172-74 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 859-717 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 172-74 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 65-19 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 858-716 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 858-716 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 55-16 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 857-716 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 39-13 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 79-38 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 57-18 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 856-714 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 167-111 ATS, and the play is on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 75-19 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 171-73 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 171-73 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 171-73 ATS, and the play is on the under.

Division games in just about every sport are the ones highly contested, simply because the games mean a bit more, and the familiarity with the opponent comes into play, and sometimes these games can get outright testy. The added intensity often fuels the fire of each team, and when games get testy there is usually an added degree of intensity. That can be shown by looking at the 6000 or so division games played in the NBA with an under mark of 51.1%, while the 19000 or so other games play to a 49.8% mark to the under. That may not seem like much, just 1.3%, but when you consider that every half point on the line is worth 1.1% in winning percentage. Today in the newsletter we will use that base premise of high intensity equals defensive interest, and put it together in our Wednesday situation:

1)  Division game

2)  Team is off a road win in a division game

How much more simplistic can you get, but powerful as well, as these teams are:

109-174 O/U since 2004.

That produces a win rate on the under of 61.5%

Tonight that will be put to test on the Sacramento vs LA Lakers, where the under is the selection.

This game fits a situation which is 856-709 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 856-709 ATS and the play is on the under.

The Miami Heat lead the league with 27 games that have finished with a total score of less than 195 at 27 (2nd is Memphis at 23). They have played 30 games vs teams that have a winning percentage of .400 or better, resulting in a 7-23 O/U ark on the season. Last 6 meetings between these clubs has seen at least 1 team finish in the 80s in 5 of the last 6 meetings. This game also fits an under indicator that is 236-144 to the under over the last 20 years. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 46-17 ATS and the play is on under.

This game fits a situation which is 89-47 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 46-17 ATS and the play is on under.

This game fits a situation which is 46-17 ATS and the play is on under.

This game fits a situation which is 46-17 ATS and the play is on under.

This game fits a situation which is 227-143 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 227-143 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 227-143 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 165-71 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 165-71 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 850-705 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 112-63 ATS and the play is on the under.

The Golden St. Warriors keep rolling along, as they approach the midway point of the season with a 35-2 record. Their offense is averaging better than 114ppg, and it will get a test tonight vs a Miami team that ranks 2nd in the league in fewest points allowed. Golden St. has not seen many defensive oriented teams this season, especially at home where they have seen just 4 this year. Cleveland (#3), Utah (#5), Memphis (#7), and Detroit (#9). These 4 games hold the key as to what to expect tonight, as the 4 games saw both teams total just 752 points, or 188 total points a game. Miami is 11-3 to the under on the road, and just 1 game topped tonight's total at 209. This game also fits a situation which is 58-21 to the under as well. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 225-143 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 166-66 ATS and the play is on the under.

The Minnesota Vikings may have the advantage with the weather in this game, as game time temperatures are projected to be around 0, with a wind chill of -15 to -20. That will put this game into the top 10 coldest games in NFL history. That being the case it calls us upon looking at the top 15 coldest games in NFL history, and the available data I have researched:

12 degrees  HOU at CHI     Chi  -1   34      FINAL:   Hou  24   Chi   5    ROAD AND UNDER
9   degrees  CHI   at MN      ??          ??      FINAL:   Minn 16  Chi  13     ?????????????

5   degrees  SF    at  GB      SF   -3   46.5   FINAL:   SF    23    GB  20  PUSH AND UNDER
4   degrees  WASH  CHI     CHI -4.5 38     FINAL:  WASH 21 CHI 17  ROAD AND PUSH
4   degrees  TN   at  NE      NE   -6    34     FINAL:  NE   17     TN  14  ROAD AND UNDER
2   degrees  DET at GB      GB   +3   36     FINAL:  DET 24     GB  17  ROAD AND OVER
0   degrees  LAR at BUF   BUF  -7   33.5  FINAL:   BUFF 29  LAR 23  ROAD AND OVER
0   degrees  LAR at GB     GB   -3    32.5  FINAL:   GB    28   LAR  0   HOME AND UNDER
0   degrees  GB   at  MN    MN  ??    ??     FINAL:   GB    23   MN   7   ROAD AND UNDER
-2  degrees  CHI at  MN     MN  ??   ??     FINAL:    MN   23  CHI   10 HOME AND LIKELY UNDER
-4  degrees  NYG at GB     GB  -7.5 41.5 FINAL:    NYG 23    GB   20 (OT) ROAD AND OVER
-5  degrees  OAK at CLV   CLV -3.5 38    FINAL:    OAK 14   CLV  12  ROAD AND UNDER
-6  degrees  IND  at  KC     KC   -8  41.5  FINAL:    IND  10    KC     7  ROAD AND UNDER
-9  degrees   SD   AT CN   CN  -4.5 45     FINAL:    CN   27    SD     10 HOME AND UNDER
-13 degrees  DAL at  GB    GB ??    ??     FINAL      GB   21   DAL   17   ?????????????
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Perhaps the biggest surprise is the success of the road teams, and not so much of a surprise is the under dominance. There have been just 515 total points scored in the 15 games and that is an average of just 34.3ppg. It is also noted, that in the NFL's coldest games, no team has ever scored as many as 30 points! The loser also has scored 20 points or less in all but 1 game, and 17 or less 80% of the time! Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 74-38 ATS, and the play is on the over.

The Pittsburgh Steelers almost blew their chances at making the playoffs in week 16 with a loss to Baltimore, but got things right in their finale beating up on Cleveland 28-12. That coupled with the Jet's meltdown in Buffalo allowed them to make it as a wild card. They will take on the division winning Cincinnati Bengals. Both these teams are top offensively, scoring 30 or more points in 7 games each. While they did play a 16-10 game at Pittsburgh, the Steelers did manage nearly 400 yards in the game, and proved they could score against the Bengals defense in Cincinnati scoring 33. The Steelers would be considered an under team over the years with their big defensive teams, but despite that going back to the start of the 2001-02 season, the Steelers are 17-0 to the over if the total is less than 47 (currently 46.5). Those games have seen an average of 51.5 points scored, and an average total of just 39.6, so they have beaten the total by over 12 points per game. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation which is 161-64 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 161-64 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 173-109 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation which is 55-17 ATS, and the play is on the under.