Sports Picks & Predictions

Austin Peay plays in some of the highest scoring games in the country, and it has translated to a 14-2 mark to the over, in their lined totals. Their last 4 games have featured both themselves, and their opponent scoring 80+, and in their last 9, they have averaged 81 and allowed 81. Their earlier game this season vs Jacksonville St. scored 166. Jacksonville St. has also played twice against the other scoring machine in the OVC, Tennessee Martin, and both games produced an average of 169 points. This game is played in the 150s at least. OVER gets the call.

It's easy to look at the Pistons team that has lost 6 of their last 7 at home, and has been in some high scoring games of late, and say they are washed up. The fact is their last 7 home games have been against teams with a combined 234-132 record or .639 winning percentage. The Bucks are a vastly improved team, and have scored 120+ in their last 3, all at home. The difference here is this. The Bucks have scored 109.8ppg in their last 12 at home, while scoring just 95.6ppg in their last 12 on the road. Huge difference!! So this total is juiced by the Bucks surge of late, but it is definately has not translated on the road. Now, if you take the Bucks and put their offense on the road vs the NBA's top 10 defenses in terms of points allowed, the Bucks on the season average 90.5ppg in this spot. That puts pressure on a Piston offense so somehow produce 107 points if averages hold to put this game over the total. When you consider the fact that in the last 30 games they have played, they have not reached that 107 point mark without the benefit of overtime, that makes for a lot of value on the under here. UNDER is my call in this one.

The Charlotte Bobcats are a rare team. They are the only team in the NBA that has a losing record, despite being ranked in the top 10 in points allowed. The reason is simply, because they play a half-court game, and don't have much of an offense. What it does for them, is allow them to hold teams down, but at the same time the real good teams, that rank in the top 10 defensively hold them down easily. They have faced 6 teams in the top 10 in points allowed per game on the road this season, and they have managed just 79,81,89,80,74, and 87 points. That works out to just 80.5ppg. Those same teams have only managed 95ppg vs Charlotte's defense. Overall they have played 16 games vs the top 10 in points allowed, and have given up just 95ppg in the 15 on average. They have scored 84.4ppg themselves. This one is more likely to play in the 170s, and there is lots of value on the under here, and I'm going under in this one.

The Redbirds have really found the going tough in conference play. After opening the season 14-0 and 3-0 in conference play, they have slipped to 6-5 in their las11 games. When you consider they haven't won on the road in any of their past 6 by more than 3, things have certainly changed. Their last 7 on the road has shown them to average just 57.1ppg in regulation minutes. Bulldogs stepping up the defense after an ATS loss as they are 8-1 ATS under after an ATS loss. Redbirds 5-1 to the under after a SU win. This one plays under the total.

I really like the line value in this one. Columbia has played their last 10 games under at home, and have averaged just 58.2ppg in the process, if you discount Cornell who is not a typical IVY team. Cornell scores in the 70s or higher just about every game. Columbia has also allowed just 56.7ppg in the same time period. Columbia for all practical purposes is the new Princeton in the IVY league and have become the king of IVY Leaugue unders. The last 2 seasons they have not played a home game taht produced more than 132 points. This one stays under the total.

Looking at the standings in the IVY and seeing Dartmouth at 4-2 is certainly a surprise. Columbia enters at 3-3, and combined these teams will put just 2 double-digit scorers on the floor. If there is a new Princeton in the IVY League that noone ralizes it is Columbia, especially at home. The Lions have now played their last 10 home IVY games under, and overall when listed as a favorite, they have played 12 straight under. Dartmouth in the role of a dog has played to a 20-7 record in favor of the under. last year these two played twice, and were not able to top the 110 mark in either game. This one goes under the total.

When a team comes off a game where they are involved in a final score that shows 271 points on the board, it is difficult for the oddsmaker to not pump up the total in their next game. That is exactly the case for this one. What they have failed to take into account, is tonight's opponent. The Portland Trailblazrs have not had a game reach over this total on the road in a non OT game in their last 62 road games! That streak goes back to December of last year! Golden St. is a scoring team, but with that, only 11 of their 25 home games have topped this total. This one os inflated, and I'm playing under here.

I wanted to wait as long as possible for this pick, until the public bet the total up. It's a classic setup, the Knicks off a 271 point game vs Golden St., who plays many of those a season, and the Clippers off of 2 out of 3 where they score 125+. Let's look at the Clippers. This team played 2 games all season where the total points in their game has reached 221. The most recent reached 231 points. That game to score 231 points required the Clippers to shoot nearly 60% from the floor, hit 16 threepointers (16-29) 55.1%, and the game needing their opponent to shoot 50%, and all together 62 free throws attempted. All of that said, he game still reached just 231. The other was against Golden St., who has seen 22 of their games reach this total. This Clipper team outside of the back-to-back 120s games where they shot just about 60% in each, has not once scored over 108 this season with out OT in any other game. The oddsmakers are saying this game has a final score of 113-108 with a 221 total and Clippers by 5. If they are right it will only be the Clippers 3rd time all season reaching 113, and the 2 times they did reach it, they had to shoot 60%. Value is on the under here.

This total is simply set too high between these two teams. New Orleans has played 11 teams with a winning record at home this season, and not a single one has scored over 100. Boston has been on the road vs 9 teams with winning records, and none have gotten to 100. New Orleans has averaged allowing 88.5ppg in the 11, Boston allowing 86.8ppg in the 9. These teams have collectively played in this situation 17-3 to the under. The average of the 17 games that went under was by 15ppg! The 3 taht went over, were by 2,2, and 9 points. This one goes UNDER, and is my NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH!

The Phoenix Suns aren't quite as fast paced as they were under Mike D'Antoni, but still like to get up and down the floor. The problem is they have faced 9 teams on the road with a winning record on the season, and the total points scored reaching this level, has been passed just 1 time (Denver game was 206 before OT). The Suns have scored under 100 in just 13 games, but 10 of those were in games vs teams .500 or better, and their overall mark is 0-13 ATS when scoring under 100. The Sixers have become a much better team, and are 12-4 over their last 16. They have allowed 100 or more just 4 times in the 16 games, and 2 of those were 100, and 101. Ten of the 16 games have come at home where they are allowing just 91.5ppg. The last 16 home games the Sixers have played has seen the visitor top their season point average in just 1 of the 16!!! The other 15 games saw the opponent average 7.4 points less a game than they average! Phoenix averages 104.9ppg, and if Philadelphia does what the have averaged over the past 16, then Phoenix projects to 97.5 points here, something they have done just 1 time in their last 45 games, and barely, as they scored 116! I like this one to go under the total.

This is a Big east rivalry game, and these types of games have proven to be low scoring over the years, especially between these two. They have combined to average just 127.3ppg in their last 12 meetings, and we get a spike in the total from their earlier meeting that finished with 146 points scored. The 12 games have seen 19 of the 24 scores posted by these teams be in the 60s or less. There has yet to be a game in the last 12 meetings where both teams reached 70! The total is posted at 136.5 with Pitt as an 8 point favorite, so the oddsmakers are calling for a 72-64 game. The last 12 matchups have seen the 72 point mark reached just 3 times, while one team has finished in the 50s or lower 7 times. It is almost 3 times more likely we see a team in the 50s, than we do up to 72! I like this one to go under the posted total.

The Cleveland Cavs are 23-0 at home, and the main reason is, that only 2 teams have reached the century mark against them on thir court, and there has yet to be a team with a winning record to record 100 points this season in Cleveland. These teams played in LA, and the final total points were just 193. The chances are this one will be even more defensive, as the Lakers are winding down a 6 game road trip. This one will play under the total.

The Houston Rockets have always been considered a defense first team, and that is magnified at home, especially vs the teams that aren't big offensive units. The Rockets have played 10 teams this season on their home court, and not a single one of the 10 reached 200 points scored. These opponents have averaged just 84.5ppg! The Rockets on the otherhand have not been filling it up vs these teams either, as they have scored no more than 103 in any of the 10 games, and have averaged just 91.8ppg. It's easy to see that of the 10 games played 9 have gone under the total! The T-Wolves have played under to the tune of 8-3-1 in their last 12 when facing strong home teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. This one goes under.

The Celtics success has been predicated on defense, and the Knicks has been via the offensive end, so something might have to give here tonight. The Knicks are a hot team right now, as they have covered 8 of their last 9, and have been over 100 points in all of them, averaging 110ppg during this stretch. The Celtics come here after an emotional OT loss to the Lakers and may be a little less intent on the defensive end here. The C's gave up 100+ in just 4 of 16, prior to their recent run of allowing 100+ at 4 of the last 6. Hot offense, vs a team off a high energy game, that may not bring it's best offense spells OVER.

The Boston Celtics have been a great team, since the addition of Garnett, and Allen to compliment Pierce, and the emergence of Rajon Rondo as a top PG. What makes them tough is all 4 are commited on the defensive end, and when they get in big games, the defense carries them. Last season the Celtics played in 11 home games against the best teams in the NBA, those with winning percentages above .600. They held these elite teams to an average of 92.2ppg. This season so far they have faced 5 of them, and the numbers are even better, as their record against teams with an over .600 winning percentage is 88.2ppg allowed. It is no wonder that the Celtics have played their last 8 vs teams with a winning percentage over .600 to the UNDER. The Lakers have scored 100+ in 21 of their last 23 games. The teams that stopped them? San Antonio and Boston. That is not shocking, as the high powered Laker offense has averaged just 97.6ppg vs the top 5 defenses this year! To put that in perspective the top 10 defenses has turned the #1 ranked offense into a #21 ranked offense!! They have played 4 games in Boston since the arrival of Garnett, and Allen, and have averaged just 94ppg. This one stays under the total.

The Detroit Pistons have been the most solid defensive team in the NBA for several years now, this year is no exception. Despite having to overcome low totals posted against them, the Pistons have played under more often than over in each of the last 6 seasons, and have by far been the king in the NBA holding opponents to under 80 points, having done it 43 times over the last 3+ seasons. Now they find themselves with a struggling offense, and the low totals are getting knocked down one after another. The Pistons have now gone 13-2 in their last 15 with a total posted of 186 or less, with one of the 2 losses coming by a single point. The Heat has played 7 times on the road vs defenses that rank in the top 10 in points allowed, and have averaged just 84.4ppg, and all 7 games have gone under the total! These teams have also played under to a record of 20-6-1 in their last 27 meetings. Under gets the call here.

The Lakers have the offense clicking, and that means a lot of points. They have averaged 114.3ppg in their 10 road games vs teams with losing records, but at the same time are allowing 107ppg. The Lakers fall under a huge catergory that has been money in the bank over the last several years. When a team beats the total to the over 3 straight games by 6 points or more playing in a non-conference game. These teams are 27-9 to the over, and 63% of the time have beaten the total by 7 points or more. The average total in these games has been set at 217, and the average points scored has been 226!!! Toronto has played over in 4 of their last 5 in the 2nd of back-to-back games. Over gets the call here

The pacers have begun to get treated by the oddsmakers in much the same way as Golden St., Denver, and Phoenix. They have scored 100+ in 19 of their last 21, but those numbers are a bit decieving. The last 10 Pacer games have played in regulation under this total. The T-Wolves have played just 8 of their last 43 over this number. The Pacers have played 16 games this season at home vs teams that are averaging under 100ppg, and 15 of the 16 have gone under this total, with the average points being scored at 205ppg. This one is simply set way too high, and I'm gong under here

The New Orleans Hornets have been a defensive powerhouse at home. The last 15 home games they have played, has seen them hold all 15 teams to under their season's scoring average. It isn't that they are holding teams just below their average, they have held these 15 teams to an average of 10.5ppg below their average! These 15 teams have combined to average 99.5ppg, but the Hornets have held them to 89.0ppg. The Trailblazers have been held to 86.2ppg on the road in their last 8 games vs teams that are .500 or better, a full 12.5ppg below their season average. This series has been rough, physical, and defensive over the last few years, as each of the last 6 games has gone under the total, and no game has seen more than 187 points scored in it. I like this one to go under.

This has become a heated rivalry game since the Cavs added LeBron and became competitive, It has been one of the most consistent defensive struggles in the NBA, and when these two get together, it is typically an ugly game. The last 23 times these teams have met the total is 22-1 to the under. It has been such a defensive battle that 17 of the 23 games have gone under by 10 points or more. Cleveland has not scored 100 points in 20 consecutive non OT games vs Detroit. The average total has been 183.7 and the average points scored between these two teams is just 168.3, or 15.5 points under the total on average. I like this one to go under the total.

here is another market inefficiency play. Theams that are matching up as two good offensive teams averaging between 98-102 points a game fit this description, especially when 1 is coming off a game where 175 points or less was scored (Portland). This situation has presented an average total of 194.8ppg, with the average score being 205ppg, and an overall record of 37-9 ATS to the OVER. The tota went over in this situation by 7 points or more 61% of the time. I will play this one over.

I write a lot of articles about market inefficiencies in sports wagering, and a lot of what I do is based on continued research, and updating circumstances, that the oddsmakers simply aren't onto. There is a situation here tonight, that shows a huge market inefficiency. It occurs when teams are off an embarassing home loss, where they failed to score 80 points. At the same time, their opponent is coming into the game off a big road loss of 10 points or more. These games have shown to go under 78.3% of the time, for an overall record of 36-10 since 1996. The average total the oddsmakers have set has been 184.6 in these games, while the average total points scored in these games has been 177.6. here is the safety test for this system. If you reduced the average total set by 7 points a game, you would still win the UNDER in 28 of the 46 games. So what you have here is a market inefficiency, where if the line was actually 7 points lower you still cover 61% of them. This is 1-0 this year, and 3-0 over the past 3 years. UNDER is the call here.

This is pure offense vs pure defense, and the oddsmakers are off by 7 points in this one. The Suns have manged 98ppg in their 8 home games vs teams in the top 10 in points allowed. They have also give up 98ppg, for an average of 192ppg scored by bith teams. The Spurs have faced 5 teams in the top 10 in points scored on the road this season, and have allowed 94ppg, while scoring 94ppg themselves. That is an average of 188ppg. Combined these teams in this situation show an expected outcome of 192 points scored. Value on the under. Supporting trends? San Antonio 41-20-1 under last 62 on the road. San Antonio 39-18-1 last 58 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. San Antonio 24-8-1 under as a dog last 33. This series has seen 6 of the last 7 also go under. UNDER gets the call here.

Both these teams find themselves in the top 10 offensively and defensively in the NBA. That is a rare occurance as going back to the 1997-98 NBA seasons, there haven't been many games between teams ranked in both the top 10 on offense, and defense in terms of points allowed and scored. I went back to the archives, and there have only been 22 such matchups. Those 22 games produced an average of 178ppg, which is 17.5 points below the total set in this one. Only 1 of the 22 games ended with a total points scored of over the total set here, and that was by 1.5 points. There was one other game that scored 202 points, but went under in regulation. So 20 of the 21 games did not top the total set here. Play this one UNDER.

The Knicks are a much better team when they score 100 points. They are 21-8 ATS when they reach the century mark. They have reached that total in 18 of 22 home games, so you can see the effectiveness of Mike D'Antoni's running game. They have also allowed opponents to reach the 100 mark in 14 of the 22 as well, so combined we are looking at 32 of 44 where either the Knicks or their opponent reached 100 at the Garden, or 73% of the time. Knicks have reached 100 in 5 straight, and the Hawks have faced teams in the top 10 in points per game on the road 6 times, allowing 107.7ppg. I like this one to go over the total.

The Boston Celtics are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, but when they play at home vs the sub-.500 teams, they lack the same intensity as they bring vs the good teams. The Celtics have allowed 99ppg vs teams with a losing record at the Garden in their last 9 games (counting Phila 21-22 as a .500 team). The offense has absolutely picked these teams apart, as they have averaged 116ppg. These 9 games have seen the over go 9-0, averaging 215 points a game to a posted average total of 197. They have played over the line by 18ppg. The Kings have allowed 121.4ppg in their last 8, while scoring 110 themselves for a ridiculous 231 points per game. Games against the other members of the over .700 club (winning percentage) Cleveland,LA Lakers,and Orlando, saw the Kings games average 222 points. I like this one to go over the total.

The Boston Celtics have that defensive mantra going, and when they get in big games, the defense is what carries them. Since November 9th the Celtics have played 5 games on the road vs tams with winning records on the season. Those 5 games have seen the avrage total points scored of just 174 per game, with none going over 181. The Magic have played 8 games at home vs teams with a winning record on the season, and the average points scored has been 185.9. The Celtics have now played 12 of 14 under on the road vs teams with a .600+ winning percentage in their last 14, and 21 of 28 on the road under overall. Magic as a home favorite of 5-10.5 are 41-19-1 to the UNDER, and 4 of the last 5 between these teams played in Orlando have gone under. I'm playing the under here as I expect this one to be played in the 80s.

The San Antonio Spurs have played 227 home games over the last 5 and a half years, and only 19 of them have exceeded this total. That is 8.3% of all games. Many are going to point out the Pacers scoring 100 and allowing 100 in 14 straight games. They had a sequence of games vs all the top offenses in the league. They have played a total of 15 games vs the NBA's top 10 in points allowed per game, and have reached 100+ in just 5 of them, and on the road they have reached that number just 2 times (all stats not including OT), one of the road games was exactly 100. They have averaged just 94.3ppg on the road vs the top 10 defenses in points allowed. They have only averaged 98ppg at home against these teams. This one goes under the total.

The Phoenix Suns are back to their run and gun style. After scoring 100+ in just 10 of their first 20 games, they have now reached the century mark in 10 straight, and 17 of their last 18. They have also allowed 100+ in 20 of their last 23 games. The Celtics, who have awakened from a deep slump that saw them go just 2-7 after a 27-2 start, have now scored 113ppg over their last 3. It is unlikely they get any resistance from the Suns here, that simply don't play defense. I'll play this one to go over the total.

The Knicks, and coach Mike D'Antoni have tried to bring the Suns running game to New York, but unless you have the personnel to pull it off, it simply doesn't work. The Knicks have been playing to inflated totals all season, and have now played under in 9 of their last 10, and 17 of their last 23. They have only reached 210 total points in their games 7 times in their last 24. The Bulls highest output over their last 11 games has been 102, and vs teams with losing records, 15 of their 19 games have featured less points scored than the posted total here. These teams have played under in 6 of their last 8 meetings, and I look for another under in this one.

These two teams have played 2 low scoring games, and most expect a defensive battle to take shape here. Baltimore has 12 players on this weeks injury report, and are really banged up, especially on defense. Samari Rolle is listed as doubtful, and Ed Reed was limited in practice this week. Derrick Mason, and Mark Clayton are listed as doubtful, Mason did not practice all week., and either did linebacker Terrell Suggs, and Antwan Barnes is out for sure. The Steelers are 100% healthy. The Steelers have always been a defensive oriented team, but in their 6 postseason games since 2001, all 6 have gone over, and since 1995, the over has been 9-2 when they play at home in the post-season. Taking a look at games that are supposed to be defensive, the Steelers home playoff game with a total of 41 or less, have gone 8-0 to the OVER. Games with exceptionally low totals (34-37), where a team scored more points the last week than the total for their game is set at this week ( the Steelers scored 35 last week, the entire total this week is 34), the OVER is 13-1!!! The only loss was the NE vs Buffalo game earlier this year, when the wind was so high it was blowing the goal-posts around. This one may look low scoring but I'm playing it to go over the total.

The Arizona Cardinal offense has produced 31.3ppg vs suspect defenses, those not rated in the top 10. They have proceeded to score 19.5ppg vs teams rated in the top 10 on defense, and have averaged less than 300 yards a game in these 6 games. The eagles strength is their pass defense, which has not allowed a TD pass in 24 quarters, or 6 consecutive games, which certainly negates the Cardinals strength. The Eagle offense, with a less than 100% Westbrook is going to rely more on the defense, and it is also an offense that throws donfield a lot less than in the past. The Cards Warner is going to be feeling the heat, as the Eagles pass rush is going to make it hard for him to go deep. The Cards have run for just 2.8ypc against the top 6 defenses, and vs the last 4 in case you think their running game has rebounded, they have totalled 135 yards on 47 carries. This total is set too high, and I'm playing this one to go under the total.

TRENDS:

TOTALS OF 42.5-49 UNDER is 70-32 68.6% when a team is revenging a loss where opponent scored 28+

UNDER is 28-9 75.7% WHEN A team has won by double-digits on the road (PHILA) vs a team off a road win

PHILA 7-1 UNDER this season as a 3.5-9.5 FAVORITE, and 16-7 UNDER as FAVORITE last 2 years

PHILA under Coach Reid is 24-12 UNDER AS A ROAD FAVORITE

The Toronto Raptors certainly aren't a high scoring team, but when they have matched up against the NBA's top 10 offenses their games have taken on the personality of the opponent as in those 14 games 11 have gone over the total. If you exclude the defenisve minded Celtics, where they have split 2 overs, and 2 unders, they are 11-1 to the over, with 8 of the 11 toppling the over by 11.5 points or more! The home games have seen 4 of the 6 played against top 10 offenses exceed the posted total by 20.5 points or more. The Suns have averaged 104.5ppg, but in their last 17, they have topped the century mark in 16, and are averaging 110ppg!!! Not only that they have now allowed 100+ in 19 of their last 22. The average allowed is 106.5ppg. This one goes over the total.

Portland is considered a defensive team, but in their last 17 games they have allowed an average of 98.2ppg, and have not given up less than 92 in each of their last 10 on the road. The Bobcats have been more offensive minded, as they produced 100 points on offense just 5 times in their first 25 games, but since have toppled the century markin 6 of 14, and in their last 4 at home have allowed an average of over 100 a game, and 11-5-1 playing over as a home dog of 4.5 or less. I like this one to jump over the total.

Siena likes to run up and down the floor, and the first meeting between these two teams saw 168 points put on the board. The Stags are a much improved team, and have the ability to stay with the Saints bucket for bucket as they proved on the road. The Stags have played over to an 11-4 mark after a straight up win, and 9-4 in conference games, and the Saints have played over in 5 of their last 7. I like this one to be more in the 150s than the 140s, and will play over here.

The Phoenix Suns really have the offense cranking, especially at home. The Suns have lit up the scoreboard for 110.6ppg in their last 10 at home. The Hawks have not found a way to stop the top 10 offenses in the league on the road, where they have allowed 110.3ppg against them. These teams have alos played the last 5 in Phoenix over the total, and the Suns against the Eastern Conference are 26-10 (72.2%), to the over in their last 36 games. Hawks hav also played 21-10-2 to the over after a double-digit loss at home. This one has a lot of signatures to be a high scoring affair, and I'm backing the over in this one.

The Lakers have been very tough at home, where they score in bunches. The Lake show has been putting up just under 110ppg at home in their 21 games on the season. It certainly is part of the reason they are 16-5 to the OVER when playing in LA. They have a bit extra incentive in this one, as Miami held them to a season low 87 points in a loss at Miami in mid December. The heat have played to only 6 titals of over 200 this season, 3 at home, and 3 on the road. The 3 at home all went under where they dictate the tempo, but not on the road, as all 3 have gone over, and by 23.3ppg!!! They may have kept the Lakers down at Miami, but they won't in LA. This one goes OVER.

These teams have many UNDER trends pointing to them including their 168 point output in Orlando earlier in the season, and the fact that 4 of their last 5 played in San Antonio have also gone under. The Spurs have played their last 7 vs teams with a winning road record to the under, and are also 17-5-1 to the under vs teams with an overall winning percentage of .600 or higher, and the Spurs are also 20-7 to the under in their last 27 vs the Southeast, and 20-8-2 to the under after a straight up win. Not to be outdone, the Magic is 32-12 to the under after scoring 100+ in their last game, and 29-14 to the under after an ATS win. Too many signals to ignore here, and I'll play this one to go under the total.

This one opened much higher and was bet down to a much lower level crossing some key numbers. Most thought the weather would be an issue here, but the reality is it won't be, so there is value here. The Giants were at 11-1 and had just 1 meaningful game from that point on, and they beat Carolina, and dropped the other 3. They are a different team with Brandon Jacobs in the lineup where their rushing yards jump from 3.9ypc without him in the lineup to 5.2ypc with him. If you look at this Giant team from week 2 to their last meaningful game, which was against Washington, and one more with Carolina, they averaged 30.8ppg in those 12 games. They also scored 21+ in all but the Monday Night Cleveland debacle. The Eagles, behind a surging McNabb, have produced 28.5ppg in their last 6, and that includes a no-show effort vs the Washington Redskins, where they scored just 3 points. The other 5 they have actually averaged 33.6ppg. A healthy Jacobs led the Giants to 219 rushing yards in their first game, while in their second meeting he was injured after posting 5.2ypc on just 10 attempts. The other Giant backs were held to 36 yards on 14 carries in his absence. This one certainly has the chance to be a lot more offensive than most think, and I'll back the over here.

This one gets a lot of talk on the defensive side of the ball, and why not, as these teams have been top notch all season. I think this one surprses many by offering more scoring than most expect. The defenses in this game get so much attention, that there is a lot of under the radar stuff going on here, that many overlook. The San Diego Chargers led the AFC with 7 games putting up 30 points or more on the season. Here comes the surprise. Do you know who finished 2nd? How about the Baltimore Ravens, and the Tennessee Titans tied with 6 each! While these teams are not known as offensive teams, they have been better than most realize. There is one simple reason, and it is offensive efficiency. The Titans are #6 in the league scoring a point for every 13.38 yards gained, while the Ravens are #7 at a point every 13.46 yards gained. Here is the next surprise. The Ravens were getting out-scored 15.6ppg to 17.4ppg, and the Ravens looked no better than their 2007-08 team that finished 5-11. Then the light came on. The game slowed down for Flacco, and he has since thrown 13 TD passes and just 5 INT's. The biggest difference was that it electrified the Raven offense, from a team that averaged 16.2ppg in 16 games last year, and 15.4ppg the first 5 this year, to a team that scored 27.8ppg in their last 12. To put that in perspective, everyone loves the Arizona Cardinals offense, but the Ravens 27.8ppg has outscored the Cardinal offense that produced 26.7ppg on the season, and would be ranked #2 to the 28.9ppg put up by the Saints. The loss to Tennessess saw the Ravens run the ball vs the Titans, something few teams have been able to do. They rushed for 115 yards in that game. The Raven offense converted 7 of 14 on 3rd down situations, the difference being, the turnover prone Flacco (2 INT's, and a fumble in that meeting), has matured. The Titans were 12-1 in their first 13 games, and did not have a meaningful game from that point on in the season. After thise 13 games the offense was producing 25.5ppg!!! That would place them at #9 in the league. The next point is this. The divisional round of the NFL playoffs since it has existed, has seen 10 games posted with a total of 34.5 or less. Those games have gone over the total in 8 of 10, or 80% of the time. There has not been a game with less than 30 points scored of these 10. The average points scored has been 43.6ppg. So many of these look defensive, but turn out otherwise. This one goes over the total.

The Denver Nuggets have the reputation of being an up and down the court team, but that hasn't been the case to the same extent this season. The Nuggets have played just 4 games over this total all season, through their first 35 games. Last year, in their last 18 games, they played over this total 13 of their last 18!!! Certainly things have changed. The Pacers have picked up the pace from a year ago, but just 4 of their games on the season have reached this lofty total. The Nuggets have played 5 of 6 totals posted at 210 or higher to the under, and this one is simply set to high. I will play this one to go UNDER

The Hornets are a buzzing team on defense and consequently have played 19 of 29 to the over. Their is a fly in that ointment however, as they have played 6 of 8 to the over vs teams ranked in the top 7 in the league in scoring, making them 17-4 to the under in their other 21 games. The 2 under's both came against the Lakers, so 6-0 to the over vs all other top offenses. Denver continues to be a shoot quick, no defense team, and has now run off 5 straight to the over, and their games have featured just about 220 points a night in those last 5. Don't expect this one to reach that level, but look for it to topple the 200 mark, and go over the total here.

The Uconn Huskies are a #10 ranked defensive team, and the Bulls will go nowhere vs this defense, but the problem is the Uconn offense is completely inept, and is based solely on the running of Donald Brown. Brown gained 1,828 yards on the season, which amazingly is more than 3 QB's on the Huskies passed for combined. The Huskie passing attack is about as bad as it gets with just 4 TD passes, and 17 INT's. As teams learned how to play them, they stalled Huskie drive after Huskie drive. The Huskies have not scored a TD inside the redzone in 16 quarters of football, and on the season have scored 13 or less 6 times. When they have scored it was the defense, as they scored 39 vs Syracuse's horrible defense, but 16 of them came on a safety,punt return, and INT return. They scored 40 on Cincinnati, but it took 6 fumbles and 3 INT's by the Cincinnati offense, that allowed Uconn 20 4th quarter points. Buffalo scored 48 on Ball St. but Ball St. fumbled 4 times, 2 for Bull TD's, and had 2 INT's to go with it for 6 turnovers. Buffalo played in the MAC which has no defenses. The top defense was N. Illinois, who Buffalo did not play. Nine teams in the MAc have a defense ranked 76th or lower, with 6 at 90 or worse, so the Buffalo offense has yet to see anything close to this Huskie defense. They played Pittsburgh, the only team even close to Uconn in defense, and scored 16 points, none inside the redzone. This one goes UNDER the total.

Kentucky suffered a bunch of injuries, that kept them down this season, and any success in this game is going to take an inspired effort by their defense. E. Carolina suffered a similar fate, and I expect them to try to do the same in this one. I expect this to be a game of field position, with lots of stalled drives. The inkuries and lack of depth on the Wildcats had this team worn out by season's end where they allowed 33.7ppg over their last 3, while not allowing more than 24 to anyone other than Florida, who is in a different catergory all together, previous to that. They allowed just 12ppg in those previous 8 outside the Gator game. E. Carolina held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 21 or less, the exception being 24 to Tilsa, a team that averaged 47.4ppg. Two well below average offenses, ECU at #87 and KY at #106, and two above average defenses, ECU #44 and KY #38 spells under the total in this one

Was waiting for this one to cross a key number before getting it locked in. I anticipated the public to bet this one up, as has been their propensity for years. This is a Cincinnati team that held 11 of 13 opponents under 24 points, and the only 2 going over that number was Oklahoma, and Connecticut. Connecticut converted most of those points on a bad day for the Cincinnati offense, that fumbled 6 times, losing 3 of them, and having 3 INT's. The Hokie defense has been on the improve all season, and has long been the calling card for Frank Beamer coached teams. The Hokies have allowed just 4 TD's in their last 5 games, while their offense has managed just 8. The Hokies have held 9 opponents to 17 or less, despite a schedule that included 9 Bowl teams. Both these teams bring top defenses, with lackluster offenses, and I like this one to go under the total.

This Nebraska team can score in bunches, but the defense has given it back far to often. Nebraska has topped the 30 point mark in 10 of their 12 games on the season, but it is a defense that has also allowed 30+ in 6 of their last 9. The Tigers have faced some bad offensive teams, and compiled some apparently decent defensive numbers. The problem is 2 games vs Citadel, and South Carolina St., and a schedule that shows 7 other teams ranked 76th or worse, and just 2 teams in the 50s. Nebraska is ranked 12th, the best offense they will have seen all year. The top 2 they have faced this season, Alabama scored 34 with their #56 offense, and Florida St. scored 41 with their #57 ranked offense. This one soars over the total!!

Iowa stacks up as a team that averages over 30ppg, but it just shows you how misleading stats can be. It is an Iowa team that reached 30 points in a game just 4 times, and 2 of those were vs Florida International, and Maine, and a 3rd coming vs Indiana and their 108th ranked defense. They had one big scoring game against a good defense and that was 38 vs Wisconsin, but they only gained 375 yards in that one. Their other 7 gams saw thm average just 19.6ppg. South Carolina's defense carried their season. They allowed 24 or less points to 9 teams, with Clemson, and Florida the only 2 to score more. Both these teams have top 10 defenses, and neither has an offense that is going to run away in this one, and pile the points on their opponent. I like this one to go under the total.

The Vanderbilt Commodores started the season 5-0 and were one of the biggest surprises of the season. It all came unraveled for them from that point on, as they managed just 1 more win to finish a disappointing 6-6 on the season. The offense that produced 30ppg in their first 4, was grounded the rest of the season. Outside of a 31 point performance against Kentucky, the Dores failed to top the 14 mark in their other 7 games. The offense has generated just 25.3.8ypg in the last 8, they are converting just 32.2% of 3rd downs, rushing for just 3.8ypc, and completing 47.8% of their passes, at just 4.75ypp, and have thrown 13 INT's, or 1 every 16 passes. I don't think this offense can get healthy against the 6th rated defense in the country. What is remarkable, is despite their offensive woes, and their defense having to spend extensive time on the field, the Commodore defense ranks 29th in the country, which tells me it is even better than that, due to the poor offense. The Eagles offense is not much better, as they are getting just over 300ypg themselves, and this one should become a game of field position, and FG's. Boston College does not have a reliable kicker, as their longest made FG this season has been just 36 yards, nor is their punting game good, averaging just 38 yards per punt, and no BC player has run back a punt or kickoff this season. Vandy has been a bit better in the FG department hitting from as long as 48 yards out, but they have only managed 10 made FG's all season. They have not run a kickoff back this season for more than 39 yards, so not much of a threat there, and their punter averages just 40 yards a punt. This one looks like the defenses, and defensive special teams play dominate, and the FG kickers are bound to miss as well. I'm going with the UNDER here.

This is a great matchup, with a great storyline, as 2 teams that were so improbable to be in this game, are matched up with each other. Rutgers opened their season by getting humiliated on national TV by Fresno St. 24-7. They proceeded to go 0-5, if you exclude non FBS Morgan St. QB Mike Teel was having a decent season moving the ball, but threw 7 INT's. The Rutgers defense had forced exactly 0 turnovers through those 5 games. Teel's numbers were 91-166 982 yards 7 INT's 5.9ypp. From that point on the light went on. His numbers went from that to 119-175 68% 1,889 20 TD's 5 INT's 10.8ypp. Needless to say a Rutgers offense grounded to 13.4ppg in the first 5, suddenly went to 46.2ppg in the last 5. teel went from taking a seat on the bench during one game, to putting up Heisman numbers the rest of the way, and noone came within 18 points of them over the last 5. North carolina is a similar story. They were just 1-6 excluding a win vs William & Mary, and they proceeded to win their last 4, and cover their last 7. An offense that was generating 17.2ppg, suddenly was averaging 31.8ppg in the last 4 wins, and almost 40 in the last 2. QB Russell Wilson did not throw a pass the first 2 weeks as the QB duties were shared by Evans, and Beck. Wilson got a chance in week 3, but his 10-21 for 92 yards and an INT, wasn't very impressive. He started the following week, and went 21-31 for 210 yds 3 TDS and no int's. Beck got the call the following week, and played himself back on the bench, by throwing 3 INT's. Wilson got the job and kept it, and his last 8 starts resulted in the Wolfpack going 8-0 ATS!!! He threw for 2 TD's in each of his last 6 starts, and in his last 8 starts he threw 16 TD passes and get this, 0 INT'S!!!! We have a pair of offenses that are clicking at an unstoppable pace, and a total that is represented by two average teams. Neither defense is potent, and they both are coming from conferences dominated by defense, but now we have 2 scoring competent teams, the likes of the Big-12 with a line that doesn't reflect it, and this one is going over the total.

Did a lot of research on this one, and I'll try and capture why I am so bullish on this total. Louisiana Tech has been considered a high powered offense all season. Lately, that is hard to argue as they posted an average of 34ppg in their last 5 games. I think the numbers are very fraudelent here, and I'll show you how statistics can lie. Louisiana Tech had half their schedule vs teams that rank #77 on defense or lower. The average of 5 of these teams was #95 out of 120 teams, with the 6th being a div-2 team. Their offense flourished in these games. The numbers show 424 yards a game, which would rank #25, and 6.14 yards a play. They averaged 39.3ppg in these 6 games, which would have put them at #13 in points scored per game. Pretty impressive numbers. They also had 5 games vs teams that were in the top half of all NCAAF defenses in yards allowed, and one other game, way over their head vs Kansas. Those 6 games saw Louisiana Tech average 280 yards a game, which would of ranked #114, and 11.2ppg which would have ranked dead last! The 6.14 yards per play was reduced to 4.28. Northern Illinois played in an offensive conference, yet finished with a defense ranked #21 in the country. That puts N. Illinois in the group of teams that held LA Tech to 11.2ppg. N. Illinois is a very limited offensive team themselves that if the numbers prevail here, will be called upon to put up 38 to put this game over the total. That is an unlikely scenerio for a team that scored 17 or less 5 times, and averaged under 20 in the 4 games they faced teams heading to Bowls. I like this one to go way under the total, and it is my BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR!

the weather conditions in Buffalo will be horrendous for this one in terms of the total. Much like Cleve/Cinn last week that saw winds prevailing in the 20s and gsting to 40, this one will be even higher. The wind profile for this game calls for the time period of 1-4 PM which is gametime, to be sustained at 30 MPH with gusts as high as 50 MPH. It will certainly put a damper on both the kicking games and passing games in this one. The total opened at 43, and has bet down by speculators of bad weather in Buffalo, and now that we are within 48hrs of gametime, the confidence in the forecast is very high. I am going with a system that has hit in the 70% range here, and playing this one UNDER.

It's no secret the Oakland offense is putrid. They have trouble putting the ball in the end-zone vs good defenses. Two weeks ago vs New England was a fluke. The only other times this team has scored more than 18 points in a game was against defenses that ranked 19th or worse. This is the 2nd best defense they will have faced this season, and I'll be surprised if they even get in the end-zone. The NFC Soth teams have been a beast at home going 26-3 on the season, and Oakland managed 0 points in Atlanta and 6 in Carolina. They are travelling across the country to play a meaningless game for them. I see this as a short game, with the Bucs offense doing a lot of running, and the Oakland defense hasn't stopped the run all season. This one goes under.

Central Michigan has been a good offensive team all season, but those numbers improved as the season progressed. They averaged 25.8ppg through the first half of the season, and 34.7ppg through the second half of the season. The problem is the defense was also getting progressively worse, as their defense allowed 27.8ppg in the first half, but that number grew to 33.7ppg in the second half of the season. Florida Atlantic followed a similar trail, as they scored just 19.3ppg in the first half, which was followed by 35ppg in the second half, and on the season allowed about 30ppg. These teams have not been able to stop a good offense all season, and both these units have peaked as the season has gone on offensively. This one should well be a shootout and I'll back the OVER here.

The Miami Heat have been bringing the Heat on defense. When you look at Phoenix, Utah, and the Lakers, the last 3 big offenses they have faced the numbers show just 89.3ppg. They faced Golden St. earlier and the game produced 259 points and drove this total sky high. The game was not what it appeared, as the Warriors went to the FT line 53 times, and connected on over 90%, and to top it off the game went to OT. Golden St. isn't putting up the big numbers right now, and 7 of their last 10 have gone under the total, and they have failed to touch 100 in 3 of their last 5. I look for this one to stay under the total.

I've written articles on my research regarding the efficient market in sports wagering. I have also indicated that the research also found times when certain sports wagering markets reach inefficiency. This is one of those times that the market goes inefficient, and the indicators present for this game are such that the winning probability over a 25 year period are 65-70% in the situation present for this game. This is not a handicapped game, but in a sense it is better than one. This fits the criteria of a high percentage yield, and it is a very strong play.

I've written articles on my research regarding the efficient market in sports wagering. I have also indicated that the research also found times when certain sports wagering markets reach inefficiency. This is one of those times that the market goes inefficient, and the indicators present for this game are such that the winning probability over a 25 year period are 65-70% in the situation present for this game. This is not a handicapped game, but in a sense it is better than one. This fits the criteria of a high percentage yield, and it is a very strong play.

I've written articles on my research regarding the efficient market in sports wagering. I have also indicated that the research also found times when certain sports wagering markets reach inefficiency. This is one of those times that the market goes inefficient, and the indicators present for this game are such that the winning probability over a 25 year period are 65-70% in the situation present for this game. This is not a handicapped game, but in a sense it is better than one. This fits the criteria of a high percentage yield, and it is a very strong play.This has reached GAME OF THE MONTH STATUS, and is a 5***** PLAY!!!

I've written articles on my research regarding the efficient market in sports wagering. I have also indicated that the research also found times when certain sports wagering markets reach inefficiency. This is one of those times that the market goes inefficient, and the indicators present for this game are such that the winning probability over a 25 year period are 65-70% in the situation present for this game. This is not a handicapped game, but in a sense it is better than one. This fits the criteria of a high percentage yield, and it is a very strong play.

I've written articles on my research regarding the efficient market in sports wagering. I have also indicated that the research also found times when certain sports wagering markets reach inefficiency. This is one of those times that the market goes inefficient, and the indicators present for this game are such that the winning probability over a 25 year period are 65-70% in the situation present for this game. This is not a handicapped game, but in a sense it is better than one. This fits the criteria of a high percentage yield, and it is a very strong play.

It looks as though this Phoenix team has realized something, and that is Shaq or no Shaq they are equipped with personnel that wins games by running the floor. The evidence is clear from their last 6 putting the pedal to the metal, and averaging 114ppg. The reasons are quite clear, the Suns are 2-8 when they score less than 100, and 13-3 when they score mor than 100. Denver certainly isn't bashful to get into a paced frenzy, and the points should flow freely in this one. These teams in their last 6 meetings have played all of them to the OVER, and I expect that number to go to 7 in this one.

The Golden St. Warriors were held under 100 points last night. That sets this total up nicely, because that doesn't happen too often. The last 2 years when the Warriors were held under 100, they have come back to average 113ppg covering 17 games. They are a 5.5 point underdog in this one, and if they reach the 100 mark as they have in 15 of the last 17 in this situation, this one is going way over the total. If they reach their average in this situation it is a no-brainer over. The numbers this season are similar at 113.5ppg. This total is set way too slow, especially as the suddenly offensive Bobcats have topped the 100 point mark themselves in 2 straight for just the 2nd time this season.

I think the more motivated team to be here has to be Colorado St. Fresno St. entered this season thinking they could wind up in a BCS Bowl if everything turned up aces. This certainly isn't where they thought they'd be. Colorado St. on the otherhand is thrilled to be in this one, as they needed wins in each of their last 2 games to get here. The defense has not performed all year for Fresno St. Here is an amazing stat to show the defensive short-comings of Fresno St. There was 4 teams on their schedule this season that scored more points against Fresno St. than anyone else on their schedule. Those teams were Boise St. 61 (no more than 49 against anyone else), Idaho 32 (no more than 28 against anyone else), Toledo 54 ( no more than 41 against anyone else), and UCLA 31 (no more than 28 against anyone else, not even Washington St.). They had 2 other games where the opponent came within 1 possession of their highest offensive output of the year. The defense finished with a rank of 89 out of 120 teams, which is generous, because their first 2 games they held teams to a total of 20 points, from that point on it has been 34.4ppg. Colorado St. is one of the worst teams in the country getting to the QB. They have recorded just 6 sacks on the season to rank dead last of 120 NCAA teams. They are als #119 in tackles for a loss. Both these teams have kickers with big legs, as Colorado St has connected from 52, and Fresno from 58. Fresno St is one of the best teams in the country returning punts and kickoffs, and Colorado St. has done well there to. This one has the potential to be a shootout, and I'm backing the over here.

The Golden St. Warriors have never been able to translate a run and gun style into reaching the upper tier of the NBA. This season it isn't translating at all. The defensive effort is non-existent, which means it is difficult to win no matter how much they push the ball and score. half of their last 12 losses were games in which they scored 110 points or more. Teams just aren't afraid to trade baskets with them anymore. The last 9 road games they have played proves that as they have allowed 122.1ppg. Defensive teams like San Antonio who scored 123, and Houston who scored 131 are prime examples. This one is set way to low and I'm playing the over here as my NBA play of the day

The Golden St. Warriors and the Indiana Pacers don't win man games, but they certainly play an exciting brand of basketball. Neither team exerts much effort on the defensive end either as the Pacers are allowing 109ppg in their last 10, and the Warriors come in allowing a dreadful 118.3ppg in their last 12. This one is likely to fall in the range of where these teams landed a year ago the last time that they met. That one produced 242 points, and the OVER is the NBA PLAY OF THE DAY, and off of a 2-0 day the heat is on.

The Knicks play no defense and just launch 3 pointer after 3 pointer. Last night in Phoenix, the Knicks threw up 38 threepoint attempts, and hit 13% (5-38), yet the game still scored 215 points. If they shoot 24% from 3 last night the game goes over. The Lakers opened allowing just 2 of their first 11 opponents to reach the century mark. Since then 8 of 12 have reached it. The Lakers have averaged over 110ppg in thier last 15. What will they score against a team that plays no defense? If the Knicks can hit 25% of their 3's in this one, it flies over the total! (their season average is 36%).

The Suns have picked up the pace over their last 9 games, and all 9 have flown over the total. The Knicks have been prodcuing points under the Mike D'Antoni "ole defense" philosophy, and any shot is a good one approach. Shaq has sat the last 2 with personal issues, and if he sits again tonight, this one has a chance to be even higher scoring, as the Suns have no need to wait around for Shaq. The Knicks just throw up shots quickly, and the misses go the other way fro quick hoops, something the Suns thrive in. This one goes over.

The Lakers have now gone over the 100 point mark in 14 straight games, where their average has been 111.4ppg. The Lakers are playing a very up-tempo game, as at the same time the defense has allowed 103ppg. The T-Wolves have not been too impressive on defense allowing 105ppg in their last 10. The T-Wolves have not been very offensive, but against teams allowing 100 a game they are getting 98, and the Lakers have allowed 103 over their last 14. With this one likely to be in hand for the Lakers, the Wolves should get some easy ones in the 4th. I like this one to go over the total.

many will look to this one as an under game, with two of the best defenses in the NFL clashing. There are a lot of things that dictate otherwise for this one. Baltimore when they reach this stage of the season has been prodominately an over team. and the last 4 times these teams have met, believe it or not the games all went over the total. The Ravens from week 11 on have played over the last 7 times the total was set at 35 or less. What gets lost in the shuffle here is what the Baltimore offense has become. The Ravens are averaging 30ppg over the last 8, or for half of the season. Let's not forget these teams played to a 43 point game before the Baltimore offense started clicking. The Pittsburgh offense is finally healthy, and over the last 3 games has averaged 26.7ppg. This total is based on raw numbers that make the offenses look like less than they are but things have changed for both teams, and I expect this one to go over the total

This pick is being added as a special weather play. The winds in Kansas City are above my threshhold for a wind weather play that automatically kicks in under certain criteria. They have and will be met for this game played in Kansas City this week, and I am adding it as a special weather play. I wanted to wait as long as I could without losing line value, so I am going forward with this one now, and would suggest you place your wager before word gets out as this total will fall as mre people look at the situation tomm. Get on this as soon as you possibly can

This game sets up as a market inefficiency game for a couple reasons. One is a weather situation that has reached a threshhold that has produced close to 70% under these circumstances. Another is a game situation that fits into a 183-117 ATS situation or 61% winners.

This is strictly a market inefficiency game that has produced 70% winners under these game conditions in the last 20 years.

The Chicago Bears have long had a defensive label, but that has vanished in recent times. The Bears have suddenly become a distinct over team, and a once proud defense is just a ghost of the past. The Bears defense has allowed 20 points or more in 9 of 13 games on the season. That is despite of playing 8 of 13 games vs offenses ranked in the bottom half of the league. They have played just 1 offense in the last 7 weeks that is ranked higher than #17, and have given up 24.1ppg. The only decent offense they played against was Gree Bay who put up 37. This Bear defense has allowed 25.5ppg to offenses that are in the top half of the league, and New Orleans is the best of the best, sitting at #1. The Bears offense has produced 20+ points in 9 of 13 games, and 23+ in 8 of 13. This is despite a schedule that has put them up against defenses that rank in the top half of the league in 8 of 13 games. The Saints defense ranks #23, and when the Bears have played defenses ranked 23 or lower they have averaged 30.3ppg. The Saints offense has posted 20+ in 12 of 13 games on the season, and 24+ in 10 of 13. What the Saints offense takes, the defense gives away as 11 of 13 teams have also scored 20+ on the Saint defense. This total would have gone over in 10 of the Saints 13 games this season. The Saints have played over to a 10-2 mark in their last 12 vs teams with a winning record, and with a line of +3 to -3 they have played OVER in 16 of 22. The Saints last 5 games vs the NFC North have all gone over, and so have 26 of the last 39 vs the NFC North. The Bears have played 6 of their last 7 when they are a 3 point or less home favorite to the OVER, and as I mentioned above, this once proud defensive team has now played 18 of their last 24 to the OVER. Lots of signals here that say this one beats the total on the plus side, and the weather is supposed to be a non-factor. The OVER is a 4**** play in this one.

Golden St. is at it again, pouring in points at an alarming rate. They don't play defense, and it ha led to them being a perfect 8-0 to the over at home this season. Couple that with their 15-7 over mark to close last season, and they are 23-7 to the over in their last 30 home games. This total seem high? It isn't, the oddsmakers haven't caught up yet as 17 of their last 24 last year were higher than this, and they still couldn't keep the games under, so consider this one a bargin, and full of value. I like this one to be around 230+ when the horn sounds. I'm playing this one to go over the total.

The redskins make the short trip to Baltimore for NFL Sunnday Night action. The weather conditions will be horrible for this one as steady wins in the 30 MPH range will be gusting up to 50 MPH at times, and the kicking games, and passing games will surely suffer. This qualifies as an inefficient market play for me, as determined by these adverse weather conditions. Games such as this have had a track record of producing over 70% winners in the past. It is my Sunday Night NFL GOY!!! The game will go under the posted total.

The San Antonio Spurs simply don't belong in a game with a total lined this high at home. They simply don't let someone come in here and run them out of the building. The Spurs have allowed one team over 100 points in their last 14, and that was 103 put up by Houston, and that was on the road. Not a single team has put up more than 104 against the Spurs in their last 44 at home. That puts this number in jeopardy, as the Spurs are allowing just 88ppg in their last 13 overall. The last 4 trips to San Antonio, the Warrior offense was grounded, to an average of just 88ppg! It takes 2 to tango, and the Spurs are not a willing dance partner.

The Golden St. Warriors have the running game back in gear, but it certainly isn't translating into wins. The Warriors have now dropped 7 straight games. The Rockets have never been an accomodating host to the running game, and this is the highest home total they will have played to since April 3rd, 2005 against Phoenix, which played to a posted total of 210, and finished scoring 169. Houston takes pride on defending and when they played at home with a total of 197 or higher last season, they were 8-3 to the UNDER, and none were close to being as high as this one. Inflated number compliments of the visitor, but host Rockets won't accomodate, this one goes under.

The Buffalo Bulls will square off against the Ball St. Cardinals for the MAC Championship. The Bulls have been impressive of late, and every game they have played in the MAC , they have been in right to the end. They have a 20 point win, and a 13 point win, and each of their other 6 MAC contests have ended 4 quarters with the teams within 3 points of each other. The Cards have been an entirely different story. The Cards won 7 of their 8 MAC games by 15 or more, and averaged winning by 21. What is most noteable however is the Cards score on everyone. They have reaced 40 in 6 of their games on the season, and in half their MAC games, and have not been held to under 31 in any contest. The Bulls scored 21+ in every MAC game this year, and topped the 40 point mark 3 times this season. The Bulls in fact have scored 32 or more in 4 of their last 5 MAC games. These teams have met 4 times, and have never produced less than 62 points, and have averaged 71ppg. The numbers these teams have put up are big despite playing in snow, rain, and outdoor circumstances sometimes inhibiting scoring. They will be playing this one indoors on the fast field turf at Ford Field, and I epect a lot of scoring, and this one going over the total.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are a very hot team right now offensively. They are making one big play after another. QB Mike Teel has had a 4 game stretch of 81-119 68.1% good for 1,290 yards, 13 TD's 5 INT's. That is nearly as many yards as he had thrown for the entire season's first 7 games. That is 10.84 yards per attempt. While it may appear that the Knights are playing great defense as well, the 2 games vs comparable competition, Pitt, and S. Florida, they actually gave up more 1st downs than they generated themselves 45-40. It is unlikely Louisville will be able to slow down this Rutgers offense, as the Cardinals have allowed 20+ to every team on their schedule that plays in the FBS, and their recent 4 games, shows a tiring defense that has allowed at least 28 a game, and has averaged yielding 33ppg. The Louisville offense has also scored 20+ in every game, but against Pittsburgh, where they stopped themselves with 5 turnovers. Rutgers is averaging 450 yards and 42ppg in their last 4, while Louisville is giving up 33ppg in their last 4. If Rutgers gets to 31, which by all indications seems quite likely, then if Louisville does what they have done all year and top the 20 mark, this one goes over easily. These teams played a 79 point shootout the last time they met. They have met 3 times over the past 3 years, and all 3 exceeded this total. This is my NCAAF GAME OF THE MONTH!!!!

The Knicks running game has had the luxary of taking to the floor at home very frequently where the run and gun Knicks have put up 108ppg. The game hasn't translated as well on the road where they average only 100ppg, which is inflated by a 132 total vs the lowly Grizzlies. Take that one out of the mix, and the Knick shooting party nets 92 a game on the road, where it has been derailed more than it has swished the nets. The Pistons will be bringing it tonight, off dreadful performance at home vs T-wolves, a resounding 26 point loss. Pistons are always up for a defensive challenge, and after their no-show against the Wolves, the defense puts the clamps on the Knicks here tonight

Looks like a dangerous spot to play over vs punchless Thunder, but what they don't score, they give up on the other end. They have allowed 100+ in 8 straight, average 108ppg. The Suns have slowed down with addition of Shaq, and D'Antoni high octane run and gun offense to the Knicks, but witness 6-3 with total of under 200 to the over, still elements of offense, and no "D" present. Thunder near 50% from long distance last 2, and Suns don't defend the long range line well (36% against). Thunder connect on enough vs soft Sun defense, and with Shaq playing about 26 minutes a game, half a game for the Suns to push against soft Thunder defense. I like the over here.

The Ball St. Cardinals are one game away from posting a perfect regular season. They have done it with a balanced offense that has produced no fewer than 31 points in any MAC game this season, and no less than 38 at home. W, Michigan is the top offensive team the Cardinals will have seen in the MAC this season, ranking at #25. While last week we saw Ball St. and CMU go off with a total of 61, we have a similar situation here with a total a TD less? It is likely due to the oddsmakers using that game as a barometer, as it finished at 55. Ball St. is home for this one, and their offense has actually been better at home, so if anything this number should be up from the 61, not down. Remember also that game was played with some snow, and quite breezy. This one figures to play with no precipitation, and lighter winds (forecast at 12MPH at gametime 10MPH by games end). W. Michigan has scored no less than 27 points in any MAC game, except a weather hampered game vs Temple. Their games against the best offenses they have played in the MAC vs Buffalo and C. Michigan produced 62, and 66 points. I expected this one to be in the same range as last week's game vs C. Michigan, so there is about a TD worth of value here. I would also not be surprised if Ball St. has a chance to score late, they will for style points. This one goes over.

The odds-makers have finally sold out on the Hornets, with their lowest total of the year on one of their games. They are off a game where the shooting was horrific on both sides, a combined 36.9%, and 25% on 3's. Couple that with the Sixers 169 total vs high scoring Golden St. and the illusion is now in place. The fact is there were 171 shots taken in that one, but just 41% of them found the range. The Sixers are allowing 98.2ppg on the road, and totals in this range, aren't reserved for teams allowing that many points. I'll back this one to go over the total, especially since line indicates a close game, where the NBA's infamous last :45 seconds could result in a free throw shooting contest with timeout after timeout.

The Uconn Huskies will face a fading S. Florida team in Tampa tonight. The Huskies are a top defensive team, and have actually been about a half yard better defensively vs the offensive averages they have played. The S. Florida offense has been slightly above average, but I do expect them to have trouble moving the ball. Offensively the Huskies are virtaully a run only team, regardless of who is at QB, which means they will have a difficult time exploiting the weak link of the Bull defense, which is their secondary. The Bulls are a very tough team against the run, which should limit Uconn's offensive effectiveness behind the running of Brown. The Bulls have extra incentive here, as the Huskies beat them in the wind, cold and rain last season. I like this one to go below the posted total

The Celtics have some weapons offensively, in Pierce,Allen, and Garnett, but the real weapon is the commitment they have made on the defensive end of the court. The Celtics allow just 90.7ppg, but when they step up against the big teams, they crank it up a notch. They played in Detroit to a final score that saw just 164 points scored, and their games last year were similar wars. The 3 games played showed an average total points scored of 172, with no game exceeding 177. The Pistons crank up the defense in similar fashion against top competition as well (see yesterday's 5* winner on Det under). This one should be another matchup, of tough defense, and an overall ugly game, and the UNDER is my NBA Play of the day!

This is a huge division rivalry game, that usually turns out being played very physical and ugly. The Pistons have spent most of the early part of the season on the road, as they have played only 3 home games thus far. The one home game worth noting was a similar game vs the Celtics that produced a total of 164 points. This series hasn't even come close to producing the total points the odds-makers are posting here in their last 34 games played against each other over the last 6 years!!!! The last 12 playoff games these two teams have played, has seen the highest amount of points scored (OT not included) being 188. The average points scored in the 12 games has been 160.1ppg or 32 points less than the total posted for this one. The last 22 regular season games these teams have played shows the highest total points scored (before OT), being 183!!!!! The average points scored in the 22 games has been 168.1ppg!!!! That is 24 points less than this total!!!! So all together these teams have met 34 times and the average points scored in their games has been 5,619 points scored, 34 games, equals 165.3ppg!!!! That is 28 points less than this total. The number of games before OT that have topped this total is 0!!!! These teams would be 34-0 to this total!!!! It may be early in the season, but win or lose, your never going to find value on a game, like there is in this one. This total is off by a full 28 points!!! This is my NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR!!!!! PLAY THIS ONE WAY UNDER THE POSTED TOTAL!!!!

Not sure why, but the odds-makers keep posting the Golden St. Warriors in a range that they play over at home, against everyone. When the Warriors are home they simply dictate the tempo, and their 5 home dates this season have averaged 213.6ppg. This is nothing new, as the Warriors 41 home games last season piled up 9,165 points, or 223.5ppg. They would have been 39-1-1 to this total, and add in the 5 games from this season, and that makes 45-1 to a total of 203.5ppg or less. The Warriors played 7 games at home last year vs the top 5 in the NBA in terms of defensive points allowed, and the games produced 216.3ppg. Portland is 14th this season. This total is way off the mark and it is my NBA PLAY OF THE DAY

I'll start this by saying I have examined extensively the weather forecast in Buffalo, and the weather will not be a factor in this game. many here the nmention of the word snow, and the total begins to dive. A game that opened at 42.5 is as of this writing 40.5, and falling. the Cleveland Browns are off of consecutive games allowing more points in each, than any game they have played until these last 2. At the same time the offense, which managed 10.5ppg in the first 4, has surged to 25.2ppg in their last 5. The Bills defense has struggled as the injuries mount. Their top pass rusher Aaron Schobel has missed the last 4 games, and will miss tonight as well. Safety Donte Whitner missed the Bills last game, and is questionable tonight, and corner, Ashton youboty is already done for the season. The Bills injuries in the secondary, as wel as the loss of Schobel, further hampers their ability to blitz, and put pressure on the QB, and on the season they have recorded just 14 sacks. That will go up against a Brown offensive line that has allowed just 11 sacks all season, so the browns should move the chains here. The Cleveland defense has been horrible, and Edwards should find room throwing the ball. The Bills offensive struggles can be related to Lynch, sick with the flu, and Edwards 5 INT's, and 3 fumbles in his last 3, should have big numbers here. Without Lynch grinding out yards the Bills have been in bad down and distance situations the past 3 weeks, and Lynch should find holes in the Cleveland front, and things will be different. Public has bet this one down, especially with the memory of the 8-0 final last year in the snow, wind, and cold in Cleveland. This one will be quite different, and I'm going OVER the total here.

Dallas will get Tony Romo back, but how effective will he be, and what kind of game plan will they use against the Redskins? I would think they will ease him back in, and not take chances downfield. The redskins are going to be without Portis, and that will likely lead to a controlled passing game, that is utilized like the run. Often when a key offensive player goes down, the defense steps up and I expect the Redskins to do just that. This is a division rivalry game, and those have a tendency to play closer to the vest, and since both these teams need the game, expect points to be at a premium. I'll go UNDER here.

I have written several articles relating to market inefficiencies, and this game is now a qualifier. The weather conditions in New York tomm. call for prevailing sustained winds of 20 MPH, with gusts as high as 40 MPH. What makes this even better is the prevailing direction of the wind. The wind direction will be out of the west, which means their will be no advantage going either way, as it will be a cross-wind. That will not give either team an advantage going with the wind, or disadvantage going against the wind. It will be a disadvantage to both offenses. Both teams are going to have to rely on their running games, and that is the strength of both defenses. I would suggest to get action on this game early, as the total will tumble. MY INTER-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR!!!