Sports Picks & Predictions

All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-16-12	Lehigh Mountain v. Duke OVER 148		75-70	Loss	-110	16 h 10 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total Lehigh is a team that loves to push the tempo. They have been able to score a lot of points against some very good teams this year. Lehigh put up 81 points against Michigan State and 77 points against Iowa State. Duke's defense is not that impressive this year. The Blue Devils like to run this year and they can definitely drain it from beyond the three-point line. Look for Lehigh to stay closer than most expect in this one. Both teams shoot free throws extremely well and I think that is worth a few points here. Take the over.
03-16-12	Virginia Cavaliers v. Florida OVER 121.5		45-71	Loss	-108	11 h 54 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Value It's usually not fun betting an 'over' with Virginia, but I think the value is with the over on this game. Florida is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation. The Gators backcourt should be far too much for Virginia to handle defensively. At the same time, the Gators aren't very good defensively, especially in the low post. Mike Scott is a dominant player in the low post and I fully expect him to have a huge game here. The over is 11-1 in the Gators last 12 NCAA Tournament games. Take the over.
03-15-12	Colorado v. UNLV OVER 134	Top	68-64	Loss	-110	70 h 11 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB Top Total UNLV is a team that can really get out in transition and do some major damage. Chace Stanback is a terrific shooter, and Bellfield and Marshall start the fast break as well as any point guards in the nation. Colorado won the PAC 12 Tournament to get into this game. The Buffaloes appear to have a pretty good defense, but the PAC 12 is just miserable this year. UNLV plays many better opponents in the Mountain West. UNLV should be able to dictate the pace here, and make Colorado play from behind. I projected this one at 138 or 139 points. I like the over big in this one.
03-15-12	South Dakota St v. Baylor OVER 139.5		60-68	Loss	-110	43 h 50 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO I see this as a game where both teams have major advantages. South Dakota State is a terrific three-point shooting team. The Jackrabbits have four players on their team who shoot at least 40%. Look for them to knock down quite a few three's in this one. Baylor has a terrific frontcourt, and they should absolutely dominate South Dakota State in the paint. Neither team will fight to slow down the tempo. The Jackrabbits should keep this one close with some three's, and Baylor should get multiple put backs. The over is 13-3 in South Dakota State's last 16 non-conference games. The over is 4-0 in Baylor's last 4 games. Take the over.
03-15-12	Virginia Commonwealth v. Wichita State OVER 134		62-59	Loss	-110	67 h 30 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Knockout VCU isn't the same team they were a year ago. The Rams are more reliant on forcing turnovers and speeding up the opposition, because they aren't very good in the half court sets. Wichita State has shown that they like to run when given the opportunity. Both teams have tons of quickness in the backcourt and I think that will lead to run out opportunities for both squads. I think this number is set too low given the nature of both teams and the pace at which this will be played. Take the over.
03-15-12	Kent State v. USC Upstate OVER 142.5		58-73	Loss	-108	18 h 8 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total Kent State and USC Upstate both like to push the pace. If there is one thing we have seen from the smaller postseason tournaments it is that the tempo is much quicker than a regular season game. It seems neither team wants to play a lot of defense in these matchups. This should be another case of very little defense and tons of offense all the way through the game. I projected this line at 146 points. Look for a fast paced game and easy baskets for both teams. Take the over.
03-15-12	Brigham Young v. Marquette OVER 153.5		68-88	Win	100	14 h 14 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total BYU is very fortunate to be still in the NCAA Tournament. If it weren't for Iona's historically bad performance in the second half the other night the Cougars would already be at home. BYU pushes the pace in a big way, and Marquette is one of the best transition teams in the nation. I don't expect either team to slow this game down. The tempo here should lead to quite a few shots being taken by both teams. I projected this one at 157 or 158 points. I like the over in this game.
03-14-12	Cal Santa Barbara v. Idaho UNDER 136		83-86	Loss	-108	22 h 39 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Knockout UCSB and Idaho are both teams that prefer to play the game in the half court. Idaho only gives up 64.4 points per game at home. UCSB's defense has only given up 57 points per game in their last five games. The total opened at 132. The number has risen to 136, which makes it a nice play by my projected line. I projected this total at 131 points. Look for a slow paced game where both defenses do very well. I like this one to stay several points under the posted total. Take the under.
03-14-12	Nevada v. Oral Roberts UNDER 137.5		68-59	Win	100	51 h 37 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination Oral Roberts is a team that plays in the Summit League. The Summit League has tons of teams that simply fly up and down the floor. Oral Roberts was able to score bunches of points against teams with almost no defense. Oral Roberts is not a team that pushes the pace, and Nevada doesn't push the tempo either. The Nevada Wolfpack are a very talented team that works hard on the defensive end. The under is a perfect 8-0 in Oral Roberts last 8 non-conference games. The under is also 4-0 in their last 4 home games. Take the under.
03-14-12	South Florida v. California UNDER 115		65-54	Loss	-108	20 h 23 m	Show
3 Star USF/Cal Total Domination South Florida and Cal both snuck into the NCAA Tournament. USF has a clear blueprint for winning. The Bulls slow the game down to a crawl and they play terrific defense. USF hasn't allowed more than 57 points in a game in their last 10 games. Cal has been slowed down in a big way in the past couple years by teams that control the tempo the way USF does. Look for an ugly game where television viewers get frustrated at the lack of points. This one will probably stay under 110 points. The under is 22-6 in the last 28 games. The under is 9-1 in Cal's last 10 games at a neutral site. Take the under.
03-14-12	North Dakota State v. Wyoming UNDER 123		75-78	Loss	-108	21 h 41 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals Takedown North Dakota State has been an interesting team this year. The Bison typically play to the pace of their opponent. Wyoming is a team that loves to slow the game down to a crawl. The Cowboys have a terrific defense, and I think North Dakota State will have a difficult time scoring in this one. Wyoming is giving up only 53.9 points per game at home this year. The under is 14-2 in North Dakota State's last 16 games. The under is 22-10 in Wyoming's last 32 home games. Take the under in this one.
03-14-12	Portland Trailblazers v. New York Knicks OVER 200.5		79-121	Loss	-105	19 h 33 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination The Portland Blazers appear to have given up on this season. I expect there will be some pretty big changes coming soon in Portland. The Blazers have continually been blown out in the last few weeks by mediocre to bad teams. The Knicks haven't been playing any defense of late, and neither have the Blazers. I see tons of easy shots coming in this one. The Knicks have given up at least 102 points in 7 of their last 8 games. I projected this one at 204 points. Take the over here.
03-14-12	Quinnipiac v. Pennsylvania UNDER 131		63-74	Loss	-108	19 h 11 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Ivy League Total Pennsylvania is a terrific defensive team. The Quakers have slowed the game down more and more as the season has moved along. The under is an impressive 10-1 in their last 11 games overall. Quinnipiac plays in a league where almost everyone flies up and down the floor. The trouble for them is that they simply don't know how to play the type of game that Penn will make them play here. This number has kept going up, which has made this value even better. I really like the under.
03-14-12	Central Florida v. Drexel UNDER 123.5		56-81	Loss	-108	19 h 56 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO Drexel was one of the teams that quite a few people thought should get into the NCAA Tournament. In the end it was their poor non-conference schedule that cost them a bid. The Dragons are terrific defensively, and they are great at controlling the tempo. UCF prefers a slow pace as well, and I don't see them trying to speed this game up at all. The under is 13-3 in Drexel's last 16 Wednesday games. Look for a very slow paced half court battle here. This one should stay well under the posted total.
03-13-12	UT Arlington v. Washington OVER 154		72-82	Push	0	29 h 23 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total Texas-Arlington and Washington both rank in the top 25 in pace in the entire nation. Washington is known for pushing the pace in a big way on their home floor. There is no way this Texas-Arlington team will try to slow the game down, because they honestly don't know how to slow a game down. I expect to see a very high volume of shots in this game. The over is 6-2 in Arlington's last 8 games. The over is 7-1 in Washington's last 8 non-conference games. Take the over in this one.
03-13-12	Washington State v. San Francisco UNDER 149		89-75	Loss	-108	28 h 18 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Total San Francisco plays in the West Coast Conference, but that is a conference where good defense is hard to find. Washington State plays pretty good defense, and they definitely slow the pace down. San Francisco has seen a lot of overs played on their home floor lately, which has given us a nice value on the under here. Washington State doesn't have the guards to push the pace here, and I think they'll make this a half court battle as much as possible. I like the under here.
03-13-12	Iona v. Brigham Young OVER 161.5		72-78	Loss	-108	28 h 3 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination From the moment I found out these two teams were playing each other I had my eye on the over. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the nation in terms of pace. Inside their conference both squads were the fastest paced team. Sometimes they had to battle to get the pace to their liking against conference foes, but that won't be the case in this one. The tempo should be very quick and both teams should get plenty of easy shots. I projected this line at 165. The over is 8-2 in Iona's last 10. The over is 7-2 in BYU's last 9 NCAA Tournament games. Take the over.
03-13-12	Atlanta Hawks v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 196		117-118	Loss	-110	4 h 58 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination Atlanta isn't a team that likes to play at a fast tempo. Denver does like to push the pace, but their offense has been out of sync lately. The Nuggets have been a solid 'under' play at home this year. The under is 14-8 in the Nuggets 22 home games this season. The under is 20-8 in Atlanta's last 28 road games. The Hawks have only given up 100 or more points in regulation twice all year. Denver won't be able to push the pace as much as they'd like here. Take the under in this game.
03-13-12	Wisconsin-Milwaukee v. Texas Christian OVER 138.5		73-83	Win	100	19 h 4 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Knockout TCU has been one of my favorite teams to play the 'over' with all year. TCU has changed their style of play this year and they really push the tempo. In addition, the Horned Frogs play very poor defense. Wisconsin-Milwaukee plays in a league where most of the teams slow the tempo down. I think they are better offensively than most people realize, and they'll get plenty of open shots against TCU's poor defense. Both teams should hit plenty of three's in this one. Take the over in this game.
03-13-12	Stony Brook v. Seton Hall UNDER 127		61-63	Win	100	19 h 51 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB NIT Total Stony Brook is a veteran team that knows how to slow the pace down. Seton Hall used to be a team that ran quite often, but they have played in quite a few low scoring battles this year. The Pirates defense is very good in the half court and I expect Stony Brook to struggle to score here. At the same time, Stony Brook knows the best way they can stay in this game is by slowing the game down in a big way. Look for a half court game. I projected this one at 124 or 125 points. Take the under here.
03-13-12	Tennessee State v. Mercer UNDER 128.5		60-68	Win	100	19 h 38 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total Mercer will have the home court advantage in this one, and I think they'll play this game at the tempo that they like. Mercer is a team that plays at a slow tempo. Tennessee State hasn't been great offensively, and they struggle to score on the road at times. Neither team gets to the line all that often. Look for this game to be played in the half court setting almost all the way through. I projected this one at 124 or 125. I think the value is on the under in this one. Take the under.
03-13-12	Mississippi Valley State v. Western Kentucky OVER 137.5		58-59	Loss	-108	25 h 19 m	Show
3 Star NCAA Tournament Opener Mississippi Valley State has pushed the tempo all year. They gave up 80 points or more in 8 of their first 10 games (against non-conference foes). MS Valley State plays in a very weak league, so their defensive stats don't look as bad as they would had they played better teams all year. Western Kentucky changed coaches in the middle of the season and they now like to press and run and gun. The Hilltoppers should be able to push the pace quite well against a team like MS Valley State. The over is 5-1 in Western Kentucky's last 6. Take the over.
03-12-12	Minnesota Timberwolves v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 197.5		127-124	Loss	-110	22 h 36 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination The Phoenix Suns aren't the same team they were a few years ago. The Suns are older and they definitely don't run the way they used to. Phoenix is improved a bit defensively as well. I expect Minnesota's offensive output to go down quite a bit now that Ricky Rubio is out for the season. Losing a play maker like Rubio has to hurt the offense in a big way. The under is 5-0 in Phoenix's last 5 home games. The under is 21-7 in the Suns last 28 against the Western Conference. Take the under.
03-12-12	Washington Wizards v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 205		97-112	Win	100	20 h 4 m	Show
3 Star NBA Totals TKO Washington has picked up the pace under new head coach Randy Wittman. The Wizards are averaging 104 points per game since the All-Star break. In addition, the Wizards are horrible defensively and I think the Spurs could definitely put up a very big number here. The Spurs have been pushing the pace quite a bit of late too, and I think this one will be a track meet. The over is 6-1 in Washington's last 7 games. The over is 8-3 in the Spurs last 11 games. I think this one gets to 210 or more. Take the over.
03-12-12	Milwaukee Bucks v. New Jersey Nets OVER 198		105-99	Win	100	7 h 28 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Value The Milwaukee Bucks and New Jersey Nets both like to do the same thing right now. Both teams like to run and gun. I don't think they'll be much defense played at all in this one. We're getting a nice value here since the last time these two played it was a low scoring game. Both teams shot below 40% from the floor in that one, and I don't think we'll see that again here. The over is 5-0 in the Bucks last 5 road games. The over is 8-2 in the Nets last 10 home games. Look for this one to get over 200. Take the over.
03-11-12	Indiana Pacers v. Orlando Magic UNDER 187		94-107	Loss	-110	14 h 13 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Value Orlando will be without both Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson in this one. Indiana is coming off a heart breaking loss to the Heat last night on Dwyane Wade's last second game winner in overtime. This is the type of game where I expect the pace to be slower and the defenses to have control. The under is 36-17-2 in the Pacers last 55 on 0 days rest. The under is 36-14-1 in the Magic's last 51 Sunday games. I projected this one at 183 points. Take the under in this matchup.
03-11-12	Philadelphia 76ers v. New York Knicks UNDER 194.5		106-94	Loss	-109	9 h 49 m	Show
3 Star NBA Early Bird Total Sunday afternoon early games in the NBA are often some of my favorite 'under' bets. Players are often a little weary and shooting percentages tend to be lower than normal. The Knicks have had some very high scoring games lately, which has made this total be inflated. Philadelphia almost never plays a fast paced game. Doug Collins coaches the defense very hard, and I expect the 76ers to slow down the Knicks some Sunday. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two. The under is 5-0 in the 76ers last 5 road games. Take the under.
03-10-12	Louisiana Tech v. New Mexico State OVER 148		57-82	Loss	-108	12 h 57 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Bailout New Mexico State has been one of my favorite teams to play the 'over' with all year. The Aggies really push the tempo, and they get to the free throw line more than any team in the nation. The two regular season meetings between these teams finished at 155 and 156 points. The over is 5-0 in LA. Tech's last 5 games overall. The Bulldogs like to full court press to push the tempo as well. The over is 12-3 in New Mexico State's last 15 Saturday games. I projected this one at 152 points. Take the over.
03-10-12	Ohio v. Akron OVER 135		64-63	Loss	-108	8 h 54 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB MAC Total Takedown Ohio and Akron both prefer to play an uptempo game. The total has been lowered a bit here because of the neutral venue and the importance of the game, but I expect this one to finish close to 140 points. D.J. Cooper may be the best player in the MAC and he should have a great game. Akron has a nice frontcourt and they should be able to score quite a few points in the paint here. The over is 6-2 in Ohio's last 8 MAC games. The over is 5-1 in Akron's last 6 MAC games. Take the over.
03-10-12	Portland Trailblazers v. Washington Wizards OVER 200.5		110-99	Win	100	4 h 16 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination The Blazers were absolutely embarrassed last night in Boston. Portland trailed 81-38 in the third quarter before Boston cleared the bench. The team had a long meeting after last night's game, and I expect a better effort tonight. Washington really pushes the pace right now, especially on their home floor. The over is 4-1 in the Wizards last 5 games. The over is 4-1 in the Blazers last 5 games. Expect both teams to get plenty of open looks in transition here. Take the over.
03-10-12	Colorado v. Arizona UNDER 129		53-51	Win	100	7 h 10 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Pac 12 Total Colorado and Arizona will play in the PAC 12 Championship Game tonight. The winner of this game will go to the NCAA Tournament, while the loser is expected to go home. Both teams have been playing at a slower pace throughout the PAC 12 Tournament. I expect to see a half court game where both defenses fare very well. Both regular season meetings finished under this posted total and the importance of this game should make the pace even slower here. The under is 8-2 in Colorado's last 10. The under is 5-0 in Arizona's last 5 neutral site games. Take the under in this one.
03-10-12	Massachusetts v. St Bonaventure OVER 144.5		80-84	Win	100	2 h 12 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Value I think both teams have a real offensive upside in this one. Andrew Nicholson should absolutely dominate everyone UMass has on the inside. At the same time, UMass has a big edge in the backcourt. UMass will press and push the tempo here, and that should help this one be a very high scoring game. I expect a close game where plenty of free throws are attempted. I projected this one at 147 or 148 points. Look for both teams to get easy shots. Take the over in this one.
03-09-12	Cal Poly SLO v. Cal Santa Barbara UNDER 126		52-64	Win	100	12 h 38 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Total Cal Poly is one of the best teams in the country at controlling the tempo. The Mustangs definitely want a very low scoring game here. UCSB actually prefers a slow pace as well, so I don't really expect a pace battle. The two regular season meetings finished at 128 and 115. The importance of this game should slow both teams down a bit. If either team loses, it's season is over. Look for a half court game that is controlled by the defenses. The under is 16-5 in UCSB's last 21 neutral site games. Take the under.
03-09-12	Dallas Mavericks v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 197		97-110	Loss	-105	7 h 11 m	Show
3 Star NBA Late Night Total Dallas has been the busiest team in the NBA since the All-Star break. The Mavs are playing their sixth game in eight days today. Sacramento likes to push the tempo, but they have trouble scoring on teams that play good defense. I don't expect the Mavericks to want to run in this one, especially since they are tired. Look for Dallas to slow the game down and rely on defense here. The under is 5-2 in the Mavericks last 7 games. Look for a sloppy game here with both teams shooting a poor percentage from the floor. Take the under.
03-09-12	Hawaii v. New Mexico State OVER 151.5		81-92	Win	100	10 h 1 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB WAC Total Takedown New Mexico State has been one of my favorite teams to play the 'over' with this season. The last time these two met New Mexico State scored 115 points by themselves. Hawaii pushes the pace, but they don't play good defense around the perimeter. On the interior, Hawaii has a nice advantage and they should be able to do some damage in the paint. Both regular season meetings finished above 175 points. I realize this one is likely to be lower, but I still think two teams that run and gun will get above this total.
03-09-12	Dayton v. Xavier UNDER 143		69-70	Win	100	8 h 34 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB A10 Totals Takedown I think we are getting a nice value here because of the two regular season high scoring games between these teams. The second game went into overtime, and it would have been 'under' this posted total otherwise. This is a very important game for both teams, which I think will slow the pace down. Both teams actually play very good half court defense. The neutral venue generally means shooting percentages are slightly lower. I projected this one at 138. Take the under here.
03-09-12	Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Miss Valley State OVER 133.5		64-71	Win	100	8 h 59 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Value These two teams met twice during the regular season. The final scores 82-67 and 78-67. I like consistency like that out of teams and I think despite this being a more important game, these two teams both like to run. It isn't like either of these teams to change the way they play just because of the importance of the game. Look for plenty of transition opportunities. High shooting percentages aren't very likely, but I don't even think they'll need to be high in this one. Look for a fast paced game. Take the over.
03-09-12	New York Knicks v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 205		114-119	Win	100	20 h 6 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination Tyson Chandler and Jared Jeffries are really the only two Knicks that even attempt to play defense. They will both be out this game, so the Bucks should have a wide open lane. Brandon Jennings and company can put up big numbers at home. On the other side , the Bucks defense is terrible as well. Jeremy Lin, Carmelo Anthony, and Ama're Stoudemire should have a big game here. This is the type of game where I expect lots of up and down action and easy baskets for both teams. The over is 13-3 in the Bucks last 16 home games. Take the over.
03-09-12	Florida A & M v. Norfolk State OVER 134.5		46-58	Loss	-110	9 h 15 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total Both Florida A&M and Norfolk State prefer to play the game at a pretty quick pace. In their only regular season meeting this year the two teams put up a combined 138 shots from the floor. If there is a similar pace at all in this one, there is tons of value on the over. I projected this line at 140 points. A neutral venue may hurt the shooting percentages a bit, but if the pace is what I expect it shouldn't be too much to overcome. Look for this one to end comfortable over the posted total.
03-09-12	Minnesota v. Michigan UNDER 124		69-73	Loss	-108	5 h 28 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Big 10 Total Minnesota and Michigan both like to play at a slow pace. The Wolverines came from nowhere over the last couple years to win a share of the Big Ten regular season title this year. The team does it through ball control and solid defense. Minnesota won't want to run in this one, and I think both teams will be using up the shot clock. The first game between these two finished at 117. I projected this one at 120 points. The slow pace and neutral venue should help the under here. Take the under.
03-08-12	UAB v. Central Florida UNDER 121		54-64	Win	100	10 h 57 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Bailout Total UAB and UCF played two very different games in the regular season. The first one was tight the whole way and finished 48-41. Last game UCF had a 20 point lead at half and the tempo sped up in the second. The game finished 71-63. On a neutral floor I think both defenses will have the edge here. Both teams prefer to play at a slow pace, and this one should stay in the half court. The under is 45-22-1 in UAB's last 68 games overall. I projected this one at 117 points. Take the under.
03-08-12	NC Central v. Bethune-Cookman OVER 121.5		59-60	Loss	-108	10 h 37 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Under the Radar Total Bethune Cookman and North Carolina Central are way off the radar for most people, but I like the value here. These teams met twice in the regular season and the final totals were 133 and 160. Neither team plays too terribly fast, but both are great at forcing turnovers and getting easy buckets. In this case, both offense struggle with defensive pressure and I expect plenty of easy hoops. I projected this one at 128 points. Look for a close game and plenty of trips to the free throw line. Take the over.
03-08-12	Minnesota v. Northwestern UNDER 130	Top	75-68	Loss	-110	7 h 36 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB Top Total This is a very important game for the Northwestern Wildcats. Bill Carmody's team is most comfortable playing a half court game, and Minnesota has slowed their tempo down in a big way over the last few weeks. Earlier this year the teams met twice and the games finished at 127 and 117. The recent game was 117 and I think this one could be very similar. A neutral site here should mean the shooting numbers are slightly lower than normal, and I see no signs that either team will want to push. Take the under big!
03-08-12	Cal Irvine v. Cal St-Fullerton OVER 155		65-59	Loss	-110	17 h 34 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination UC Irvine and Cal State Fullerton are two teams that love to run and gun. Both shoot tons of three's and both defenses are terrible at guarding beyond the arc. In the first meeting this year between these teams there were 28 made three's. In the second meeting there were 18. The final totals of those games were 176 and 194 points. I don't see either team slowing this game down at all. The over is 6-0 in UC Irvine's last 6 games at a neutral site. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Take the over.
03-08-12	Texas Christian v. Colorado St OVER 141.5		60-81	Loss	-110	16 h 44 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total TCU has quickly become one of my favorite 'over' teams this year. The Horned Frogs have been a slow paced team in past years, but they have picked it up in a big way this year. TCU is pretty good offensively, but they are terrible on the defensive end. Colorado State shoots 41% from beyond the arc as a team. The Rams also struggle on the defensive end of the floor. The two meetings in the regular season both finished above this total. The over is 7-2 in TCU's last 9. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. Take the over.
03-07-12	New Orleans Hornets v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 192.5		98-99	Loss	-110	21 h 50 m	Show
3 Star NBA Late Night Total New Orleans plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA. Sacramento has sped up quite a bit of late, but I don't think the Hornets will be willing to run and gun with them in this one. The last meeting between these two finished at 192 despite 39 made free throws between the two teams. The under is 5-1 in Sacramento's last 6 games as a home favorite. I projected this one at 188 points. Look for an ugly game between two below par teams. This one should stay under the posted total.
03-07-12	Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 194.5		106-104	Win	100	19 h 44 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Knockout The Chicago Bulls and the Milwaukee Bucks see a lot of each other, and it is quite clear how the game plays out almost every time. Milwaukee pushes the pace, but doesn't play any defense at all. Chicago has scored 107, 113, and 110 points in their three meetings this year. All three games have finished above 200 points. The over is 12-4 in the Bucks 16 home games this year. The over is 7-3 in the Bulls last 10 road games. I expect this one to end right around 200 points. Take the over.
03-07-12	Seton Hall v. Louisville UNDER 126.5		55-61	Win	100	7 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Big East Total Domination These teams met only once in the regular season. Louisville won that game 60-51. The Cardinals are an interesting team that pushes the pace, but they aren't very efficient offensively. Defensively, the Cardinals are terrific. Seton Hall has struggled all year against the best defensive teams in the nation. I think both teams will have poor shooting numbers in this one. The under is 4-0 in Louisville's last 4. The under is 6-0 in Seton Hall's last 6 following a win of 20 points or more. Take the under here.
03-07-12	Houston Rockets v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 187.5		98-116	Loss	-111	18 h 49 m	Show
3 Star NBA Oddsmaker Error Total Quite frankly I would have played this under at a lower level (probably down to about 184). I was very surprised to see this one show up at this level. Houston has been an 'under' machine this year with their slower pace and better defense. Toronto is missing its leading scorer in Bargnani. These two met on February 28 and the final was 88-85. It wouldn't surprise me if this one ended with a similar score. The under is an impressive 6-1 in the Rockets last 7 games playing on no rest. The under is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. Take the under.
03-06-12	Detroit v. Valparaiso OVER 137.5		70-50	Loss	-110	21 h 48 m	Show
3 Star NCAA Horizon League Total Detroit and Valparaiso will square off Tuesday night in the Horizon League Championship game. This one will be played at Valparaiso since they won the regular season title in this league. Detroit is the most talented team in the Horizon League, and they have been putting it together as the season has gone along. Detroit gets it done by running the floor and using their athleticism. Valparaiso is a team that struggles with turnovers, and Detroit should use pressure defense here and force turnovers to lead to easy buckets. Valpo's offense is very good in the half court, and they should score plenty. The over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. Take the over.
03-06-12	Duquesne v. Massachusetts OVER 150		83-92	Win	100	19 h 49 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination These are two of my favorite teams to play the 'over' with. Both like to press and push the pace with their aggressive defense. I don't see either of these teams slowing things down at all. Duquesne slowed down a bit during the middle of the year when they had injury issues, but they are pretty healthy now. The first meeting between these two finished at 149 points. UMass shot only 9 free throws in that game, and the shooting percentages weren't great. This should be a competitive game, and I think both offenses will find plenty of open looks. The over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings. Take the over.
03-06-12	Western Kentucky v. North Texas OVER 133		74-70	Win	100	7 h 36 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Sun Belt Conference Championship Final Total Western Kentucky and North Texas both like to push the tempo. The shooting backdrop may not be great at a neutral venue like this one, but I'm counting on both of these using their pressure defense to get some easy buckets. The regular season meeting between these two finished at 84-67. The over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams. I projected this one at 137 points. Look for a quick pace to push this one over the posted total.
03-06-12	Portland State v. Weber State OVER 149.5		63-69	Loss	-110	18 h 18 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Under the Radar Total Weber State is probably the most talented team in the Big Sky Conference. Weber State gets to the line very often, and they are first in the nation in free throw shooting percentage at 81% as a team. Portland State also is aggressive and gets to the line often. Both teams shoot it well from beyond the arc, and both defenses are quite poor. The two regular season meetings finished at 169 and 171 points. I projected this at 153. Look for both teams to bury quite a few from deep here. Take the over.
03-05-12	Arkansas State v. North Texas OVER 127.5		72-76	Win	100	6 h 37 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO Arkansas State upended top seed Middle Tennessee State last night in the Sun Belt quarterfinals. John Brady's Arkansas State team is playing with a ton of confidence right now. They are shooting the ball much better than they have all year. North Texas pushes the pace in a big way. The two regular season meetings between these teams finished at 140 and 147 points. This is a neutral venue, but I don't think this one should be set below about 131 or 132. Look for the pace to be plenty quick here. The over is 8-2 in Ark state's last 10. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
03-05-12	Western Illinois v. Oral Roberts UNDER 115.5		54-53	Win	100	6 h 37 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total Western Illinois is the second slowest paced team in the nation (behind only Wisconsin). Oral Roberts also plays at a very slow pace. The two regular season meetings between these teams saw the final regulation scores at 112 and 98 points. The shooting numbers really weren't bad at all, it was just a very slow paced game. It's hard to imagine either of these teams deciding to abandon their slow pace, especially in this big of a game. The under is 37-18-1 in Western Illinois' last 56 games. Take the under here.
03-05-12	Virginia Commonwealth v. Drexel OVER 118		59-56	Loss	-108	6 h 36 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB ESPN Total Domination VCU and Drexel will fight for the CAA Tournament crown tonight on ESPN. The CAA is definitely one of the most underrated conferences in college basketball. Both of these teams are capable of making noise if they do make it into the NCAA Tournament. VCU is playing a virtual home game here, and Shaka Smart's team is playing its best basketball of the season. Drexel likes to keep the pace slow, but I expect VCU to use the press and aggressive defense to speed the game up. VCU causes more turnovers than anyone else in the nation. The last three times these teams have played the total has been 122, 124.5, and 126. At this low level, the value is with the over. Take the over here.
03-04-12	George Mason v. Virginia Commonwealth OVER 131		64-74	Win	100	5 h 59 m	Show
3 Star CAA Totals Takedown It's a matchup of two Cinderella stories in the NCAA Tournament from the last few years. Both of these teams really need to win to assure a bid into the NCAA Tournament. The two regular season meetings finished at 123 points and 166 points. The first game saw terrible shooting numbers. VCU has picked up the tempo in a big way over the last few weeks. Shaka Smart's team is using the full court press again to force the tempo. George Mason has been the fastest paced team in the CAA all year long. The pace here should be quicker than most expect. The over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Take the over.
03-04-12	New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics OVER 188		111-115	Win	100	13 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Knicks/Celtics Total Domination Things were very different the last time these two teams met. Jeremy Lin barely saw the floor, and we know that has changed in a big way. Lin is now the catalyst to an exciting Knicks offense. Everyone is healthy for the Knicks now, and I really think they have the potential to be one of the best offenses in the league. Boston threw in a full court press last game against the Nets and they were extremely successful with it. The Celtics will likely try it at least a little bit in this game. Expect the pace to be quicker than it has been in previous meetings between these two. The over is 6-0-1 in the Celtics last 7 home games. Take the over.
03-03-12	Montana State v. Portland State OVER 145		53-75	Loss	-110	10 h 3 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Total Montana State and Portland State are two teams I like to play the 'over' with. Both of these teams are more comfortable playing at a quick pace, and they both struggle badly on the defensive end. Portland State is a scoring machine at home, and this game will be played on their home floor. Both teams are great at getting to the line, and both teams shoot the three ball extremely well. I projected this one at 151 points, so I see a ton of value here. Take the over in this one.
03-03-12	San Diego St v. Texas Christian OVER 138		98-92	Win	100	19 h 54 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO TCU is one of my favorite 'over' teams for a few reasons. The Horned Frogs are pushing the pace this year when they used to walk it up the floor, so the books haven't fully adjusted their numbers just yet. Also, TCU is terrible defensively and the opposition always gets plenty of easy looks. TCU is also a team that fouls a lot so there are plenty of trips to the charity stripe. The first meeting between these two teams saw them score 156 points. Look for another high scoring game here. Take the over.
03-03-12	Arkansas v. Mississippi State OVER 147		59-79	Loss	-100	18 h 14 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination The first game between these teams finished at 98-88. Arkansas has sped up the tempo in a big way this year under Mike Anderson. The Razorbacks have the athletes to do this, and I think they will get Mississippi State into a track meet again in this one. The Bulldogs have plenty of talent, but they have underachieved this year. I think the Bulldogs offense will thrive against Arkansas' weak half court defense in this one. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Take the over.
03-03-12	Over v. Under OVER 152		63-87	Loss	-110	4 h 10 m	Show
3 Star NCAA MAAC Total Iona is clearly the class of the MAAC. Marist has been playing quite a bit better of late, especially on the offensive end. The two regular season meetings finished at 157 and 176 points. Marist likes to play very quick, so Iona won't need to fight to push the pace in this game. Both teams are efficient offensively, and neither of them play much defense at all. I projected this one at 156 points. Expect plenty of trips to the line and plenty of open three-pointers from both teams. Take the over.
03-03-12	Alabama v. Mississippi UNDER 124		51-60	Win	100	19 h 42 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals Terrorizer Alabama is built around their solid defense. Mississippi is a much better team on their home floor. The Rebels allow just 59 points per game at home. The first meeting between these two went into double overtime and it still only got to a final score of 69-67. Defense should rule once again in this one. Look for a half court style of game where the offenses struggle to get in a rhythm. I projected this one at 119 points. Take the under on this SEC battle in Mississippi.
03-03-12	Vanderbilt v. Tennessee UNDER 136		61-68	Win	100	19 h 42 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB SEC Totals Takedown Tennessee is a much different team this year under Coach Martin than they were under Coach Pearl. The Volunteers rely heavily on their strong defense to win them games. They realize that they don't have any business running with Vanderbilt, and i don't think they will here. Vanderbilt has struggled quite a bit on the road this year, and this is a bitter rivalry where defensive games have been the norm. I projected this game at 131 points. I like the value on the under here.
03-03-12	Rhode Island v. Massachusetts OVER 150		83-89	Win	100	19 h 40 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total Rhode Island went through a little spurt this year where they were slowing the tempo down, but that was only because they were short-handed. Now that they have everyone back in their lineup they seem to be back to running and gunning like normal. UMass plays at one of the fastest paces in all of college basketball this year. The Minutemen press and force the issue all throughout the game. I projected this one at 154 points. Look for the offenses to get plenty of open looks here. Take the over.
03-03-12	UTEP v. Southern Methodist UNDER 115		48-57	Win	100	3 h 2 m	Show
3 Star NCAA Hidden GEM Total The first meeting between these two went into overtime, but before overtime the score was 53-53. Both of these teams basically stall on the offensive end of the floor. SMU is the team that plays even slower, and I expect them to control the tempo at home here. Both of these teams have had multiple games finish below this very low total. I don't like playing totals that are this low, but I actually think this one will likely stay under 110 points. I see lots of value here. Take the under.
03-03-12	American v. Lehigh Mountain OVER 127.5		66-85	Win	100	4 h 44 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total Lehigh is the better team here, and they should be able to control the tempo that this game is played at. The first two meetings finished at 131 and 133. I think 132 is about where this line should have been, but instead we got a nice value on the over. American doesn't have the defense necessary to keep Lehigh off the board. Once American gets behind, it will be tough for them to keep slowing the game down. Look for Lehigh to get an early lead and keep pushing the pace. Take the over.
03-03-12	Illinois St v. Wichita State UNDER 134	Top	65-64	Win	100	3 h 56 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB Top Total Illinois State and Wichita State played twice during the regular season. Both meetings finished well under this posted total. In the last ten games played in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament nine of them have gone 'under' the posted total. A tough shooting backdrop and a slower tempo seems to reign in the scoring every year in Saint Louis. The under is 8-2 in Wichita State's last games at a neutral site. I projected this one at 128 points. Take the under in a big way here!
03-03-12	West Virginia v. South Florida UNDER 118		50-44	Win	100	14 h 59 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special South Florida has been one of my favorite 'under' teams this year. Stan Heath's team knows how to control the tempo, and they are great at keeping the opposition out of the lane. West Virginia has a great player in Kevin Jones, but the Mountaineers don't have too many other offensive scoring options. The last seven South Florida games have all finished under this posted total, and several of those games were against teams who play faster than West Virginia. Look for a slow pace here. Take the under.
03-03-12	Virginia Military Inst v. North Carolina-Asheville OVER 165		64-80	Loss	-100	12 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Big South Title Game Total VMI and UNC Asheville both love to run the floor all game long. Both of their regular season meetings finished well above this total. The number is understandably lower because of what is at stake here, but I think we are getting a nice value. Neither of these teams are going to slow down in this one, and both teams play very poor defense. I expect to see lots of easy looks near the basket in this one. Look for the high intensity game to have lots of trips to the line, where both teams shoot it well. Take the over.
03-02-12	Sacramento Kings v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 196		107-115	Loss	-110	11 h 6 m	Show
3 Star NBA Late Night Total Los Angeles is not a team that likes to push the tempo at all. Mike Brown has the Lakers controlling the tempo and playing very good halfcourt man defense. The Kings have been an 'under' machine on the road. The under is 14-7 in the Kings 21 road games this year. The under is 24-11 in the Lakers last 35 Friday games. I expected a total somewhere around 191 or 192 here. Look for the Lakers to get the lead and slow down this game. Also, with Kobe Bryant dinged up, he may rest more than normal if LA gets a lead. Take the under.
03-02-12	San Francisco v. Loyola Marymount OVER 144.5		67-60	Loss	-108	11 h 46 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB West Coast Total San Francisco and Loyola Marymount are two very even teams. The first game between these two went to overtime and the second was decided by two points. Overtime and/or plenty of fouling in a close game at the end is a very real possibility here. Rex Walters Dons push the pace with their full court press, and they create a lot of easy buckets with that. Marymount has quickness on the outside, and I think they'll keep the tempo moving quickly as well. I projected this at 148. The over is 17-7 in San Fran's last 24. Take the over.
03-02-12	Hofstra v. Georgia State UNDER 127	Top	50-85	Loss	-110	9 h 22 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB Top Total Richmond Coliseum is a very tough gym for shooters. The Coliseum has had very low scoring games over the years in the CAA tournament. Georgia State is comfortable playing at a slow pace, and I expect them to control the pace here. The first meeting between these two was only 59-43, despite the fact that Georgia State shot better than 50% from the floor. The pace should be plenty slow here, and I think the shooting will be much worse this time around. I projected this one at 122 points. Take the under big!
03-02-12	Drake v. Creighton UNDER 140		61-68	Win	100	9 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Missouri Valley Total I played the under on both regular season meetings between Drake and Creighton and won both times (the second one was very close). Drake knows they must slow the game down to have any chance of winning this one. Creighton doesn't play as quick as some think, but they do shoot well. The shooting backdrop is notoriously tough at this gym, and I have adjusted my number several points lower for that. The under is 5-0 in Drake's last 5 neutral site games. The under is 6-0 in Drake's last 6 Friday games. Take the under.
03-02-12	Denver Nuggets v. Houston Rockets UNDER 204		117-105	Loss	-110	4 h 53 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination The Denver Nuggets will be playing this one short-handed. Danilo Gallinari, Nene, and Rudy Fernandez are all out of the lineup for this one. Those guys account for about 40 points per game. Houston has improved a ton this year on the defensive end, and the under is 16-6 in the Rockets last 22 home games. The first meeting between these teams finished at 189. I don't understand why the total is set so high. Quite honestly, I don't think this game gets to 200, so I really like the value on the under.
03-02-12	Providence v. Notre Dame UNDER 130		69-75	Loss	-100	17 h 15 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination Notre Dame has been an 'under' machine of late. Mike Brey has his team playing at a snails pace right now. This is literally a team that walks it down the floor and uses up the entire shot clock almost every time. Providence doesn't play nearly as fast as they did last year, and Notre Dame's defense is terrific at home. The under is 19-7 in Notre Dame's last 26. The under is 10-3 in Notre Dame's last 13 home games. I projected this one at 126 points. Look for this one to stay under the posted total.
03-01-12	Pepperdine v. San Diego UNDER 124.5		54-76	Loss	-108	21 h 25 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB West Coast Total The West Coast Conference Tournament is underway. This tournament is played at a neutral venue, and the shooting backdrop isn't very favorable to shooters. Pepperdine is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation. The Waves shoot a miserable 39.6% from the floor. They also play at a very slow pace. San Diego is the slightly better team here, but they aren't great at pushing the tempo. This seems like a game where both offenses will struggle to find a rhythm. The under is 8-2 in their last 10 meetings. Take the under.
03-01-12	Pacific v. Cal Santa Barbara UNDER 130.5		61-76	Loss	-108	21 h 55 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination Pacific and UCSB are two teams that prefer to play at a slow pace. Both teams have a coach that likes to control the tempo and keep the game in the 50's or low 60's. The first meeting between these two this year was 56-53. This one should be higher than that, but I see plenty of value here on the under. The under is 6-0 in UCSB's last 6 home games. The under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. A combined 14-3 winning angle and a favorable pace outlook make this one look like a nice play. Take the under.
03-01-12	Fla Gulf Coast v. USC Upstate OVER 140.5		71-61	Loss	-113	8 h 59 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total The last three times these teams have met the final total has been 146, 155, and 161 points. I realize that this game is being played on a neutral floor, so the posted total will be lower, but I don't think it should be this much lower. Both teams prefer to play at a quick pace. Both of these teams are solid from beyond the arc, and neither defense guards the three-point shot well. Both teams use pressure defense to force turnovers and neither team is good at handling the pressure. Expect plenty of easy buckets. Take the over.
03-01-12	Florida State v. Virginia Cavaliers UNDER 115		63-60	Loss	-110	19 h 47 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO Virginia has bought into Tony Bennett's system and it has served them very well this year. The Cavs are one of the slowest paced teams in the nation this year. They also play some terrific half court defense and keep their opponent off the offensive glass. Florida State is one of the best defensive teams in the nation as well, and I think they'll struggle to push the pace in this one. The first meeting between these two finished at 58-55 despite both teams shooting quite well from the floor. I projected this one at 111. Take the under.
03-01-12	SE Missouri State v. Tennessee Tech UNDER 145		73-77	Loss	-108	8 h 16 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Under the Radar Total The Ohio Valley Conference takes place at Nashville Municipal Auditorium, which has a reputation for having a very poor shooting backdrop. I generally lower a total by about 4 or 5 points because of this gym. During the regular season these teams met once and the final was 77-62. The posted total in that game was 145. Interestingly, both teams shot better than their season average in that one. This being a poor shooters gym I would have expected the total here to be around 140. I like the value here. Take the under.
02-29-12	Santa Clara v. Portland OVER 144		70-74	Push	0	21 h 13 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total Two bad teams will meet in Portland for this one. Santa Clara had plenty of hope going into the season, but it has all fallen apart for them and they have yet to win a game in the WCC. Portland has been awful as well and they have been getting beaten up of late. Defense will be optional in this one, and both teams prefer to play at a quick pace. The first meeting between these two hit 162 points. I projected this one at 148 points. I like the over in this matchup.
02-29-12	Southern Methodist v. Southern Miss UNDER 120.5		60-67	Loss	-110	19 h 18 m	Show
3 Star NCAA Totals TKO SMU wins games by controlling the tempo and minimizing possessions. Southern Miss is also a team that plays pretty slow. Southern Miss may be without their leading scorer in this one, as he is questionable for personal reasons. I projected this game at 117 points. Look for this to stay in the half court all the way throughout. The defenses should control the game here. The under is 40-18-4 in SMU's last 64 Wednesday games. I like the value on this one. Take the under here.
02-29-12	Eastern Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 117		54-53	Win	100	19 h 14 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan are bitter rivals. It seems when these two meet the game slows down and becomes more about defense. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Eastern Michigan is one of my single favorite teams to play the 'under' with. They play at a snails pace and they are terrible on the offensive end. Western Michigan has slowed down considerably this season as well. The first meeting barely snuck over the posted total, but that was solely due to OT. Take the under here.
02-29-12	Georgia Tech v. Boston College UNDER 121.5		52-56	Win	100	19 h 11 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB ACC Total Takedown These are the two worst teams in the ACC this year. I fully expect this to be a very ugly game. I don't suggest anyone watch this one, but I do think there is some value on the total here. The first game between these two was 51-47, and the shooting percentages really weren't that bad. Both teams play slowly and both offenses are terrible. I don't see any reason to believe this game will be much higher scoring than before. Look for this to be a very ugly low scoring affair. Take the under.
02-29-12	Fordham v. Rhode Island OVER 138		58-78	Loss	-108	19 h 10 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total Neither of these teams are particularly efficient on the offensive end, but they both prefer playing at a quick tempo. The first meeting was played with both teams at less than 100%. Chris Gaston missed most of the game, and he is easily Fordham's best player. Rhode Island was dealing with multiple injuries then as well. Even with those top players missing, the game got to 130 points. I think the players that are back here can more than make up that difference. Take the over.
02-29-12	South Florida v. Louisville UNDER 117.5		58-51	Win	100	18 h 12 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Big East Total South Florida is still on the NCAA Tournament bubble despite sporting an 11-5 record in the Big East. A win here would put the Bulls in the field. South Florida absolutely has to have this game played at a very slow pace if they want to have a chance. They have been great at slowing things down of late, even against a team like Syracuse. The highest score in their last six games was 114 points. The under is a perfect 6-0 in their last 6. Louisville is great defensively and South Florida may struggle to put 50 points on the board. Take the under.
02-28-12	Northern Colorado v. Portland State OVER 152.5		74-75	Loss	-108	21 h 8 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Under the Radar Total Northern Colorado is the single best three-point shooting team in the nation. Portland State's defense is terrible all the way around. Portland State pushes the tempo and piles on the points on offense, and Northern Colorado is poor defensively as well. Both teams get to the charity stripe a ton, and I think that will be a factor here. The over is 6-0-1 in Northern Colorado's last 7 as a road underdog. The over is 22-4 in Portland State's last 26 as a home favorite of 7 to 12.5 points. Take the over.
02-28-12	Minnesota v. Wisconsin UNDER 115		45-52	Win	100	19 h 57 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination Wisconsin is one of my favorite teams to play the 'under' with. The Badgers play at the single slowest pace of any team in Division I basketball. Wisconsin knows how to take the air out of the ball when they get a lead. Minnesota has slowed the tempo down in a big way of late as well. The Golden Gophers offense has sputtered in a big way of late. Minnesota hasn't scored 70 points in any of their last five games. Wisconsin only allows 52 points per game. The first meeting went over only because of overtime. Take the under.
02-28-12	Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 183		97-68	Win	100	19 h 47 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination The Philadelphia 76ers started off the season red hot, but they have cooled off in a big way of late. Detroit actually heated up nicely right before the All-Star break. Doug Collins' teams win with their strong defense, and I fully expect them to be ready to defend well after a nice rest at the break. Detroit isn't a very good offensive team. The first two meetings between these two stayed well under this posted total. I think this stays under 180 points. Take the under in this one.
02-27-12	Gardner-Webb v. High Point UNDER 133		58-68	Win	100	7 h 7 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Under the Radar Total Gardner-Webb and High Point are both more comfortable playing the game at a slow tempo. Both of these teams are inefficient on the offensive end. Both meetings between these two teams went into overtime this year, which has skewed the line higher than it really should be. The first meeting was at 134 before overtime and the second was at 112 before overtime. Look for the defenses to step it up here since the losing team will see their season end. I projected this at 129. Take the under.
02-27-12	Notre Dame v. Georgetown UNDER 120.5	Top	41-59	Win	100	7 h 55 m	Show
5 Star Notre Dame/Georgetown Top Total Who is going to speed up the tempo in this one? I really don't expect either team to want to run. Georgetown plays slightly faster than Notre Dame, but the Hoyas have great defense and they can definitely win a low scoring game. Mike Brey's team is using the same strategy they did a couple years ago when Harangoady was hurt. They are stalling as much as possible on offense and counting on tough defense to win them games. Both defenses should play very well here. The under is 23-3-1 in Notre Dame's last 27 as the underdog. The under is 20-7 in Georgetown's last 27 Monday games. A combined 43-10 winning angle! I think this one stays under 115, so I really like the value here. Take the under big!
02-27-12	Radford v. Virginia Military Inst OVER 149		53-55	Loss	-108	6 h 25 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total Radford is a team that generally plays to the pace of their opponent. VMI plays at the second fastest pace out of 345 Division I college basketball programs. The Keydets run and gun in a big way. They average 80 points per game on their home floor, and Radford gives up 76 per game on the road. VMI will likely get a lead here, and Radford will be unable to slow the game down. I projected this one at 153 or 154 points. The tempo of this one should help push it over the posted total.
02-26-12	Iowa v. Illinois OVER 139.5		54-65	Loss	-108	16 h 40 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Big 10 Total Iowa plays faster than anyone in the Big 10 Conference. The Hawkeyes showed how good they are at speeding up the game when they beat Wisconsin 67-66 earlier this week. Wisconsin games typically are played at a very slow pace, but Iowa made them speed up. Illinois has been awful defensively of late. Opponents are averaging 77 points per game on them in their last five. Iowa has been terrible defensively on the road. Opponents are scoring 80 points per game on the Hawkeyes on the road. Take the over in this one.
02-26-12	Niagara v. Marist OVER 143		77-89	Win	100	12 h 8 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total Niagara and Marist are both teams that love to push the pace. Both of these teams struggle mightily on the defensive end as well. The first meeting between these two teams finished at 153 points even though Marist shot only 32% from the floor. The over is 7-1 in Marist's last 8 games at home. The over is 4-1-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two at Marist. I see no reason to expect a slow down in the pace here. Look for a transition type of game where run outs are common. Take the over.
02-26-12	Cincinnati v. South Florida UNDER 117.5		45-46	Win	100	10 h 10 m	Show
3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special South Florida has been one of the biggest surprises in the nation this year. The Bulls are terrific at controlling the tempo and shutting down opposing offenses. They are particularly adept at this on their home floor. Opponents average just 57.1 points per game against them at home. The under is 18-5 in South Florida's last 23 games overall. Cincinnati isn't a team that pushes the pace, and I think this one will be played in the halfcourt all the way. I projected this at 114. Take the under here.
02-25-12	Cal St-Northridge v. Cal Irvine OVER 147.5	Top	85-94	Win	100	25 h 35 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB Top Play Late Night Bailout Total These two teams play faster than anyone else in the Big West Conference. The first meeting between these two was lower scoring than expected, which has given us an amazing value on this game. Both teams use the full court press to push the tempo, and easy layups should come often in this one. UC Irvine is giving up 81.5 points per game in their last five contests. They are also scoring 74.4 points per game in their last five. The over is 19-7-2 in UC Irvine's last 28 home games. Take the over big in this one.
02-25-12	Eastern Washington v. Portland State OVER 150		64-69	Loss	-110	21 h 4 m	Show
3 Star West Coast Total Eastern Washington fouls more than any other team in the country, and Portland State gets to the line often. The Vikings should pour in the points here, and neither team plays much defense at all. Take the under.
02-25-12	Oral Roberts v. Southern Utah UNDER 129		73-71	Loss	-108	24 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Under the Radar Total Oral Roberts and Southern Utah play in a league where just about everyone wants to run and gun. Both of these teams like to slow it down and control the tempo. The first meeting between these two finished at 116 points. The under is a perfect 9-0 in Southern Utah's 9 home games this year. The books haven't fully adjusted to Southern Utah's new much slower pace of play this year. Look for a game played in the half court here. I projected this one at 125 points. Take the under in this matchup.
02-25-12	San Jose St v. New Mexico State OVER 146.5	Top	68-79	Win	100	20 h 50 m	Show
5 Star NCAA BB Top Play Total Those of you who follow my plays closely know that New Mexico State is a team I love to play the 'over' with. The Aggies push the tempo better than anyone in the WAC, and they are great at getting to the free throw line. The first game between these two finished slightly under the total, but there weren't many trips to the line. Expect far more strips to the charity stripe in this one. The over is 11-2 in New Mexico State's last 13 Saturday games. The over is 37-15 in San Jose State's last 52 Saturday games. A combined 48-17 winning angle is worthy of a close look! I projected this one at 151 or 152 points. Take the over big here!

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