Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a huge game for both teams as the NL West is up for grabs and both of these teams have a real chance at winning the division. 

Both teams have their best starting pitcher going in this one as well. Patrick Corbin throws for the Diamondbacks and Clayton Kershaw is on the mound for the Dodgers.

Corbin has been absolutely incredible this year. He has a great 3.15 ERA, but the advanced metrics suggest he has been very unlucky as well. Corbin is 4th among all starting pitchers in baseball with a 2.39 FIP. He's also 2nd in the majors with a 2.60 xFIP. That's behind only Chris Sale and just ahead of Jacob Degrom. In his last 7 starts, Corbin has allowed only 5 walks and he has struck out 58 batters. 

Clayton Kershaw has been rounding into form of late. Kershaw has gone 8 innings in two of his last three starts, and he has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last six starts. Kershaw has held the Diamondbacks hitters to a career average of .182 in a large sample size of 182 at bats. 

Dan Bellino is the home plate umpire and the under is 16-4 in his 20 games behind the plate this year.

The under is 7-0 in Bellino's 7 games behind the plate with the total set at 7.5 or lower. The under is 7-0 in the DBacks last 7 games. The under is 5-0 in the DBacks last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 vs. a left handed starter. The under is 7-0 in the Dodgers last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. A combined 30-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs beat the North Texas Mean Green 54-32 last year. Both of these teams were racking up big gain after big gain. Both SMU and North Texas ranked in the top 40 in the country in pace of play last year. SMU will likely play even quicker under Sonny Dykes this year, and North Texas has a veteran quarterback in Mason Fine, which likely means an even faster pace as he knows the system very well now.

Mason Fine is going to put up some big numbers this year. North Texas has some great receivers and Fine has all the tools. SMU is weak in the secondary and Fine should pick them apart here.

North Texas allowed 16 plays of 50 yards or more last year. The Mean Green defense are aggressive and can force some turnovers, but the trade off is allowing a bunch of big plays. Only one team in the country allowed more plays of 50 yards or more (Tulsa). SMU should have big play ability with a veteran at quarterback like Hicks.

The weather is forecast to be hot and humid on Saturday in Texas. Warm weather has been a nice boost to the over in past years. 

The offenses have big advantages in this one, and both teams will pass heavy so there will be more clock stoppages. Back and forth.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Washington/Auburn Moneymaker* The Auburn Tigers return only one starter on the offensive line from last year. Auburn must also replace their top two running backs from a year ago. The Auburn running game that was terrific last year will be down several notches this year. Washington's defensive front is likely to make it very difficult for Auburn to get anything going on the ground here. Auburn has a good quarterback in Stidham, but he'll be under pressure often in this one, and Washington's secondary is one of the best in the country.

Washington likes to lean on their running game in big games. Auburn's defensive front is one of the four or five best in the country. Washington's offensive line is at a clear disadvantage here. Jake Browning will have to make plays in the passing game, and last year he was inconsistent especially against top defenses and away from home. 

Washington ranked in the bottom 20 in the country in tempo last year, and I expect them to be fairly slow again this year. Auburn was slower than the average team as well. Both teams are run heavy and the clock should keep ticking a lot in this game. 

A hard hitting close game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Zack Wheeler has been throwing the ball really well of late. Wheeler has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in his last six starts. Wheeler ranks in the top 3% of all pitchers in the majors in exit velocity allowed, so he is excelling at inducing soft contact. He's up against a Giants lineup that was already without their best hitter in Buster Posey. Now they are without Andrew McCutchen after he was traded to the Yankees on Thursday. The Giants rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. San Francisco has scored 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 9 games. 

Andrew Suarez has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of his last 12 starts. Suarez has allowed only a .278 on-base percentage at home this year (.366 OBP on road). This is a great pitcher's park, and he's facing a Mets offense that is second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties on the season. 

Both teams have a fresh bullpen ready to go after getting the day off on Thursday. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Stanford Cardinal aren't the same team they were a few years ago. Stanford was known for being tremendous on the defensive front a few years ago. They were consistently piling up 45 or 50 sacks. They were holding teams to 2.9, 3.0, and 3.1 yards per carry. Not anymore. Stanford allowed 4.6 ypc last year, and they had only 32 sacks. Last year's defense was easily the worst in the past six years for Stanford, and the defensive line for Stanford is a big question mark this year. 

Stanford hasn't had a really good quarterback since Andrew Luck was here, but KJ Costello should do very well for them. Costello came on in a big way at the end of last season. He had 14 TD's and only 4 picks last year. As Costello took over at QB later last year, this offense immediately started putting up better numbers. They scored 30 in an upset win over Washington. They put up 38 against Notre Dame. They scored 37 against a good TCU defense in their bowl game.

San Diego State's offensive line is better than Stanford's defensive front. Washington will be a good running back for the Aztecs this year. Chapman has experience at quarterback as well. They should be able to move the ball here.

Bryce Love ran wild against San Diego State last year, and he should be great again here. Stanford should run the ball really well here.

It's a low total where the public is actually taking the under. That's fine with me. The perception of Stanford and San Diego State as defensive teams has this total set at a low number.I'll take the contrarian over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies offense couldn't get a first down for nearly two quarters at home against Wyoming last week. This Aggies offense was fortunate to get 7 points last game, and now they face a Minnesota team with a strong defensive front. New Mexico State's weakness is their offensive line. 

Minnesota ranked 120th out of 130 teams in the country in tempo last year. They have a freshman quarterback, and they are very likely to want to keep things vanilla in this game. New Mexico State should be ready for the run game here.

New Mexico State's defense improved a bunch last year, and I think they will be pretty good again this year. Against a one-dimensional offense they should hold their own here.

New Mexico State played quickly last year, but they appeared to be wanting to slow things down a bit this year with a new quarterback and running back.

Winds of about 15 mph are forecast for this game, and that's enough to change the game some and help the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants meet in a key NL West game on Wednesday night. Arizona has struggled in recent days, and the NL West is wide open for the taking. The Giants aren't completely out of the race, and we've seen big runs by them late in the season before. The Dodgers, Rockies, and DBacks are within 1.5 games of each other in the top 3 spots.

Dereck Rodriguez starts here for the Giants. He has a sparkling 0.88 WHIP at home this year in more than 50 innings. He has thrown at least 6 innings and allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last seven starts overall. 

Zack Godley has been inconsistent this year, but he's been victim of some terrible batted ball luck of late. Godley has had a FIP of 3.15 or lower in nine straight starts, so I expect some positive regression in the near future. Here he is in a very pitcher-friendly park and up against the Giants without Buster Posey. 

The Diamondbacks are 25th in weighted on base average against righties this year and the Giants are 27th. San Francisco is second to last in wOBA overall in the last 30 days. 

Cory Blaser is behind the plate and he ranks in the top three among all umpires in strikes called percentage, and he's consistently been a very good under umpire.

The under is 4-0-1 in the DBacks last 5 road games against a right handed starter. The under is 6-0-1 in the Giants last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. A 10-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Indians host the Twins here. Progressive Field is a park that can be a great hitters park with the right weather conditions. The ball carries well here when it is hot, and the wind makes a big difference here as well. The weather forecast for this one calls for temperatures in the upper 80's at gametime and winds blowing out at 10-15 mph during the game. In fact, the over is 52-34 in the last 86 games at Progressive Field with wind blowing out and a temperature of 78 degrees or warmer. 

Carlos Carrasco is a rare pitcher who throws much better on the road. His all-time ERA at home is 4.44, while his road ERA is 3.10. His WHIP at home is 1.318, while on the road it is only 1.065. 

Kyle Gibson is inconsistent, and his track record against Cleveland is terrible. He has a 5.25 ERA in 17 starts against the Tribe. The Indians lineup has a combined .394 weighted on base average (wOBA) against him. The Twins have hit Carrasco well also. They have a .361 wOBA against him.

With the conditions and the pitching matchup, I like the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* There hasn't been a better field than Coors Field for unders this year. Of course there can still be some very high scoring games here, but the posted totals have been too high on average. 

The under is 20-5-1 in the Rockies last 26 home games. Senzatela starts for the Rockies and he has been surprisingly solid. He does a good job limiting big innings and staying away from hard contact. 

Miles Mikolas is a very underrated guy thanks to his ability to pound the strike zone. He has a hard hit rate of only 29.7% this year according to Baseball Savant. 

The Rockies and Cardinals are both much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Colorado is 22nd in the league in weighted on base average against righties and the Cardinals are 17th. The Rockies are 3rd and the Cardinals 8th against lefties. 

This game means a lot to both teams, and both bullpens are well rested coming into this one.

The under is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 overall. The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5. The under is 4-0 in Senzatela's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 vs a right handed starter. A 21-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Trevor Cahill has been dominant at home this year, but he isn't very good on the road. Cahill had a terrible 1.97 WHIP on the road last year. It is still a very high 1.47 this year on the road. At home, Cahill has a 0.84 WHIP in his last 13 starts. He'll be on the road against a pretty talented Twins lineup that has been hitting the ball well of late. The Twins have some youngsters seeing the ball well.

Kohl Stewart starts here for the Twins, and I don't like what I've seen from him thus far. It's only been two short starts in the majors, but he is having serious trouble. Most concerning is both of those starts are against the Tigers, who have been the worst offense in baseball in the past month. Stewart had a mediocre ERA and FIP in Triple A this year, and he wasn't generating many swings and misses there. He's up against an Oakland offense that is easily first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road this season.

The over is 9-1 in Cahill's last 10 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 between these two teams. A 13-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 MLB Early Bird Special* I don't like taking unders this low very often, but I see a bunch of reasons for this game to be very low scoring. 

Madison Bumgarner has been pitching better in his last few outings. He gave up several against a Reds offense that excels against lefties in his last outing. He'll face a Mets lineup that is last in weighted on base average against lefties in all of baseball this year. Bumgarner has allowed a grand total of 2 runs in 29 innings pitched at Citi Field. The Giants bullpen has been very solid in recent weeks, and they are well rested coming into this one.

Jacob Degrom has been amazing this year. Degrom has always been much better at home and in day games. Degrom has a career 1.99 ERA in day games. He has a career 2.18 ERA at home. He has allowed 1 run or 0 runs in 14 of his 25 starts this year. He has only allowed more than 3 once. Degrom has been pitching deep into games consistently as well.

The under is 15-5-1 in Degrom's last 21.

The wind is blowing in here and it is an early game. Early get away day games are good under leans to start with, and with the wind blowing in it is even more the case.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Look for both Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer to come out and throw the ball really well here. It's not a very hot day in Washington DC for this one, and the wind is blowing in at 10-12 mph from center field. Eric Cooper is behind the plate, and he's a bit of an under umpire as well.

Scherzer has been as good as ever lately. He has a FIP of 1.32 or lower in four of his last six starts. He has allowed a grand total of 3 earned runs in his last five starts combined. Scherzer has been pitching very deep into games, and that's key here since the Nats bullpen has been struggling.

Nola gets a high swinging strike rate of 13.1%. He also excels at inducing soft contact. Nola has only allowed 3.8% of batted balls to be barreled so far this year (that ranks in the top 3% of pitchers in the majors). Fangraphs shows Nola to have allowed a hard hit ball on less than 25% of batted balls, which is extremely good.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros have Charlie Morton on the mound here. Morton has been great all year. He combines something many pitchers aren't able to- the ability to have swing and miss stuff and still induce soft contact. 

Marco Gonzales has had a breakout year for the Mariners. He likes pitching in this pitcher-friendly ballpark, and Gonzales has done a much better job minimizing walks this year. 

Both starters should be helped by Bill Miller, who is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller grades as the second best under umpire in my umpire database over the last 5 seasons. His strikes called percentage is consistently high from year to year.

This is a get away day game and that could mean a key bat or two is missing. Both of these teams have a deep bullpen, and the relievers available on Wednesday are solid.

The under is 5-0 in Morton's last 5 starts. The under is 5-1 in Morton's last 6 starts vs. Seattle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Robbie Ray is much better on the road than at home. Ray has a 5.27 home ERA in his career. He has a 3.19 ERA on the road. His WHIP at home is a staggering 1.543. His WHIP on the road is only 1.203. In 4 starts in San Diego, Ray has a 2.88 ERA. 

The Padres have what might be the worst offense in baseball right now. San Diego was just shut down by Clay Buchholz last night. Buchholz threw a complete game, which means Arizona's top bullpen guys are all available for this game.

Joey Lucchesi starts for San Diego here. He has a 2.66 FIP or lower in 4 of his last 5 starts. Lucchesi has deceptive stuff, and he's backed by a deep bullpen. In fact, the Padres have a 2.88 ERA in the past 30 days. They have a 2.82 FIP which is easily the best in baseball during that time.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The winner of this game gets into the playoffs. The loser goes home. These types of games generally have a lower posted total, and they deserve to since the tempo of the game is usually slower. The game means more than the rest of them, so the pace slows because no one wants to be careless with the basketball.

The first two matchups between these two teams this year had posted totals of 171.5 and 168.5. Now, we get a total in the mid 170's with everything on the line. It doesn't make any sense to me. 

Late in the WNBA regular season- betting unders has been a profitable angle in the last ten years. With teams fighting for a playoff spot, that makes me feel stronger about the under.

Las Vegas has slowed their tempo by about 3 possessions in the last four games compared to earlier this year. In their last three games, Dallas has played a little over a possession per game slower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Jose Berrios has been tremendous at home in the last couple years. Berrios had a WHIP of 0.95 at home last year. He has a 0.919 WHIP this year. His strikeout/walk ratio is 5.06 at home this season. He's capable of dominating at home, and the Pirates offense is mediocre. 

Chris Archer goes against a Twins lineup that is much weaker than they were before the trade deadline. Archer has a 13.3% swinging strike rate so far this year, so he can definitely miss bats. 

This is a get away day game and we could see a key bat or two missing here. 

Doug Eddings is the single best under umpire in the majors. Eddings has called the highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the majors for three consecutive years. 

The under is a whopping 48-23 in his last 71 games behind home plate with a start time of 4 pm EST or earlier (typically get away day games).

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Late in the WNBA regular season, the under has been the way to go. From game 31 of the regular season through the end of the regular season when it is a conference game: the under is a whopping 125-77 (62%). 

The Sparks play at the slowest pace in the WNBA. The Mercury typically play to the pace of their opponent. The first two games went under this total, and I expect another low scoring game here. 

Look for a lot of intensity on the defensive end. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers have been just awful offensively in the past month or so. In fact, since July 10 this Tigers team has only scored more than 5 runs on three occasions! They have a brutal .244 OBP in the last 30 days. The second worst team OBP during that period is the Marlins at .269. Detroit has been embarrassing on offense.

Kohl Stewart is a hard thrower who has some potential, and he gets a very favorable matchup in his debut here. 

The Tigers start Matt Boyd, and he's been solid this year. Boyd has pitched really well against the Twins in the past as well. In 103 at bats, they have a .214 average against him. Boyd has improved a lot in the past year, and the Tigers bullpen has been surprisingly strong in the past month.

The Twins offense is much weaker since the trade deadline. The Tigers offense is dreadful. It's too high of a total here.

The under is 6-0 in the Tigers last 6 vs a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 road games vs a lefty. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two. A 14-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ottawa RedBlacks blew a massive lead last week, and they have to be fired up to get going in this one. It helps that they are playing against easily the worst defense in the CFL. Montreal is banged up on defense, and they weren't good even before they got hit by injuries. Montreal is allowing more than 20 yards per game more than any other defense in the CFL. They have allowed 44 points or more in 3 of their last 6 games. Don't be surprised if Trevor Harris and Ottawa put up a big number on them here.

Johnny Manziel gets his second start for Montreal here. He was awful in the first one. He has big play potential both ways. He'll likely make more big plays for his offense here, but I expect him to once again turn it over and give Ottawa lots of easy scoring chances as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gerrit Cole has been tremendous this year. While his recent results don't look quite as dominant, a closer look shows he is still throwing the ball really well. Cole has a FIP of 2.44 or lower in each of his last five starts. He has been hurt by some tough batted ball luck and a low strand rate. He's still racking up huge strikeout numbers and doing a good job minimizing hard contact.

Mike Leake has produced a quality start in 11 of his last 14 starts. Leake has no walks in his last three starts combined. Leake is backed by a quality bullpen on the Mariners side. The Astros bullpen is arguably the best in baseball.

Houston is without Altuve and Springer right now, and that certainly holds their offense back.

Doug Eddings is behind home plate, and he is the single best under umpire in baseball. He has the highest strikes called rate of any umpire in three straight seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies both come into this game struggling of late on offense. The Dodgers have scored 2 runs or less in six of their last ten games. The Rockies have scored 3 runs or less in six of their last eight games.

The Rockies are an elite offense against left handed pitching. In fact, Colorado is second in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Rockies aren't very good against right handed pitching though. They are 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching. They face a good right hander in Ross Stripling here.

The Dodgers are elite against right handed pitching. They are 2nd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Dodgers are only 23rd in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

Tyler Anderson has an impressive 3.48 ERA and 1.263 WHIP at Coors Field in his career. Ross Stripling has a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings at Coors Field. Both of these guys are solid pitchers.

The under is 5-0 in the Dodgers last 5 road games. The under is 4-0-1 in Anderson's last 5 home starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phillies rank in the bottom ten in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom 6 in the league in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Patrick Corbin has a 3.31 ERA on the year, and he has actually been very unlucky. Corbin has a FIP of only 2.55 on the season. Corbin had a solid swinging strike rate of 11.0% last year, but it has jumped to a really impressive 14.7% this year. His slider has been tremendous this season. Corbin is up against a Phillies lineup that strikes out a bunch.

Vincent Velasquez came back from injury on July 11. Since then, Velasquez has allowed a grand total of 2 runs in 25 and 1/3 innings. His hard hit percentage is way down this year, so he is inducing more soft contact. Only 5.7% of batted balls against him have been barreled. 

The under is 6-0 in Velasquez's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Arizona. The under is 6-0 in the Phillies last 6 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 20-0 angle.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* Brad Keller has pitched pretty well for the Royals this year. Keller has a good sinking fastball which has helped him keep the ball in the park thus far. As long as he has his command, he should continue to be good at suppressing home runs. Keller has done an excellent job avoiding hard contact. Only 10 out of 222 batted balls have been barreled according to Baseball Savant. That puts Keller in the top 4% of pitchers in baseball. He's doing a great job forcing soft contact.

Mike Montgomery is an underrated starter who does enough to help his team win. The Cubs bullpen is strong and many of their best guys should be available on Tuesday.

Doug Eddings is the umpire here, and he is clearly the biggest under umpire in baseball. He's had the highest percentage of strikes called of any umpire for three straight seasons. He's a big help to both pitchers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Royals start Jakob Junis in this one. They host the Chicago Cubs in an interleague battle. The Cubs are one the rare NL teams who have plenty of depth to add a hitter and still be strong from top to bottom in the lineup. 

Junis has had problems with the home run ball this year. He is giving up a whopping 2.02 homers per nine innings. Junis isn't pitching well of late. He's allowed 5 runs or more in less than 6 innings pitched in 5 of his last 8 starts. 

Cole Hamels isn't the pitcher he used to be. Hamels has a home run problem as well, and he is very inconsistent.

The weather here is calling for a temperature of 92 degrees at gametime and winds blowing out at 10 mph. These are perfect conditions for an over. 

The Royals bullpen is arguably the worst in the majors and Junis doesn't usually pitch deep in the game. The Cubs could put up a big number here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Bill Miller has been one of the best under umpires in baseball for many years. Miller has an all-time under rate of 55.4% and he's always at or near the top of the strikeouts/walk ratio leaderboard and the overall percentage of strikes called. Miller is a big under umpire. Sunday is a get away day and there are more unders on Sunday in MLB in general. The under is a whopping 43-15-1 in Miller's last 59 Sunday games.

Danny Duffy has been coming around of late. Duffy has allowed 1 run or less in 9 of his last 13 starts. He's gone 6 innings or more in 10 of those 13 starts. Duffy also has a spectacular 2.21 ERA in 102 innings against the Twins. Duffy has an even better 1.79 ERA at Target Field.

Ervin Santana starts for the Twins here, and he has a brilliant 2.78 ERA in 11 career starts with Bill Miller behind home plate. 

The Twins rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Royals rank in the bottom three in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The angle here is back to back game overs. Phoenix is on the second end of a back to back and they are the road team. The over is 104-60 in the last 164 games when the road team is coming off a loss and are on a back to back spot. If we drill it down even more: both the home and road teams have had 53% or less of their games go over the total on the season- the result is 45 overs and 17 unders. In conference games only in that scenario the record is 26 overs and 7 unders. It's clear that road teams on back to back spots helps the over.

Las Vegas plays at the fastest pace in the WNBA, and they play quite a bit faster at home. The Aces have seen their home games be much higher scoring than their road games on average. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Angels traded away Ian Kinsler and Martin Maldonado already. This lineup wasn't particularly deep to start with, and now they are even less so. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, but the lineup around him isn't very good. Stanek starts here for the Rays, and he has been superb. He obviously won't be in the game long, but Yarbrough is expected to come in after him and he's a solid lefty. The Angels rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

Tyler Skaggs has been tremendous this year for the Angels. Skaggs has allowed 2 runs or less in 15 of his 19 starts this year. Skaggs had a swinging strike rate of only 8.1% last year, but it has jumped to 11.4% this year. 

The Stanek-Yarbrough combination the Rays have used consistently has been very good for the under. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games with these two being used back to back. The under is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0 in the Angels last 4 during game one of a series. A 15-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Robbie Ray is a really inconsistent pitcher. He's very capable of firing a great game and shutting a team down, but he's also very capable of getting shelled. More often than not he's been hit hard at home. The over is 24-7-1 in his last 32 starts at home. It's very common to see a pitcher with an ERA much better at home than on the road, but Ray is the opposite in a big way. Ray has a 3.18 career ERA on the road. His career home ERA is 5.28. His ERA is nearly a full run worse in the second half of the season as well.

Martin Perez has a 7.08 ERA and a 6.36 FIP on the season. Perez is a below average lefty, and the DBacks have been very good against lefties all year (they are bad against righties). The Rangers bullpen has been used heavily of late.

The Rangers and Dbacks both rank in the top 12 in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Both of these bullpens rank among the five worst in the majors in the last month. 

I think there is blowup potential with both of these starters and I'll take the over at this relatively low number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers pitching staff is struggling in a big way, and that is putting it nicely. Texas has allowed 13 runs or more in 3 of their last 6 games. The Rangers bullpen is stretched to the limit right now. The starters have been so bad that the entire bullpen is gassed. 

Bartolo Colon has been in very poor form of late. Colon has allowed 7 hits or more in 6 of his last 7 starts. He has gone 5 innings or less in 5 of his last 9 starts. Colon is giving up more hard contact this year than he has in any other season in his career. He has a home run problem, especially at home, and the Athletics lineup is extremely powerful.

Oakland ranks first in weighted on base average on the road and ISO on the road. The A's start Trevor Cahill in this one and while he has been lights out at a home, he has been very hittable on the road. Cahill has a 5.92 ERA on the road this season. His road ERA last year was 7.07. 

The temperature at game time here is expected to be 101 degrees. In the Ballpark at Arlington- the over is 34-22 in the last 56 with an average temperature of 96 degrees or higher in the game (this one should fit).

Take the over.

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies have been great against lefties this year, but they aren't good against right handed pitching. Gerrit Cole has been an elite right hander this year. His swinging strike rate is above 14%, which is tremendous. Cole has allowed 1 run or less in 10 of his 20 starts this year. He hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in a game all season.

Houston's bullpen is first in the majors in FIP and SIERA. This is a deep bullpen that comes into this series well rested.

Tyler Anderson has been spectacular for the Rockies. Anderson is a great combination of a high swinging strike rate and an ability to induce soft contact. In his career, he has a very good 3.58 ERA at Coors Field. Anderson has a 4.32 ERA in the first half of the season in his career, and a much better 3.20 ERA in the second half of the season. He's been locked in of late.

The under is 5-0 in the Astros last 5 interleague road games. The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 starts. The under is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 home starts. A 19-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Lucas Giolito's stats look better on the surface of late, but if you take a deeper dive you'll see he's just getting fortunate with batted balls in play. Giolito has allowed a batting average on balls in play of .158, .154, and .100 in the three games he has pitched well in lately (2, 1, and 0 runs allowed). On the season, Giolito has a 6.18 ERA and a 6.14 FIP and 6.21 xFIP. He's  been one of the worst starters in the majors. 

The Angels offense has struggled badly against lefties (27th in majors in wOBA), but they are solid against right handed pitching (7th in majors in wOBA). 

Jaime Barria is due for regression. Barria has a 3.55 ERA and a 4.84 FIP. Barria has stranded 83.3% of runners on the season which isn't something he can keep up long term. His exit velocity allowed is 89.9 mph, so hitters are hitting the ball very hard against him. 

These two bullpens both rank in the bottom 8 in the past month, so I expect late scoring chances as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Dylan Covey has a brutal 8.92 ERA on the road in his career. Covey has been terrible in his last few starts. He hasn't pitched more than 5 innings in any of his last 5 games and he has allowed 4 runs or more in each of those starts. He has walked 15 batters and has only 10 strikeouts during that span. Covey comes into this one in really bad form. 

Felix Hernandez is far from the pitcher he once was. Hernandez is allowing more hard hit balls than he has in any other season in his career. He is coming off the DL and pitchers often aren't sharp in that first game back. 

There have been at least 11 runs scored total in Covey's last four starts. The White Sox bullpen has a 6.62 ERA in the past 30 days, so they are unlikely to provide much relief here. 

Covey could give up a big number here, and Hernandez is shaky at this point as well. There is value on the over in this contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been good in the last couple months, but they are much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching. The Dodgers are 4th in weighted on base average at .332 against righties, but they are 15th against lefties at .313. 

The Padres offense is bad against all pitching, but they are especially bad against right handed pitching. San Diego is dead last in the majors with a weighted on base average of just .287 against righties. 

Joey Lucchesi had one bad start after coming back from the DL, but since then he has been pretty sharp. Lucchesi has a deceptive delivery and hitters have had a hard time sizing him up.

Kenta Maeda has allowed only 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts combined. Maeda excels at forcing hitters into weak contact.

Ben May has turned into an excellent under umpire. He has called 64.75% of pitches a strike so far this year. He called 65.17% of pitches a strike last year. The average is right around 63.50%. May is a strike caller.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Vince Velasquez has pitched significantly better away from Philadelphia. Velasquez is prone to allowing home runs, and Citizens Bank Park has hurt him because of that. Velasquez has a 6.16 ERA and has allowed 11 home runs at home this year. He has a 2.79 ERA and has allowed 2 homers on the road. Citi Field is definitely a pitcher friendly park.

Jacob Degrom has been amazing this year. Degrom has always been very good, but his number are tremendous this year. Degrom has racked up a ridiculous 15.6% swinging strike rate so far this year. On 252 batted balls off Degrom, only 10 balls have been barreled, a great 3.6% rate. Degrom is a rare combination of strikeout pitcher and soft contact inducing pitcher. Degrom has a 0.90 WHIP at home this year.

Both of these offenses have been struggling of late. Dan Bellino is the home plate umpire and the under is 12-1 in his 13 games behind the dish this year. The under is 6-0 in Degrom's last 6 starts vs. an NL East team. An 18-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics rank second in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Oakland has a much deeper lineup than an average team. The A's have a nice mix of power hitters and contact hitters. 

The Houston Astros offense ranks in the top five in the majors. In the last month, they have been great. 

Frankie Montas is striking out less than 6 batters per nine innings. He's also giving up a ton of hard contact. In fact, 49.4% of batted balls have been labeled as hard hit against Montas this year. His home run rate is too low and should regress to the mean. He hasn't been fooling people of late.

Gerrit Cole started the season pitching extremely well. He's been mediocre of late. Cole allowed 3 runs or more in only one of his first eight starts. In his last 10 starts, he has allowed 3 runs or more on 6 occasions. His exit velocity he's allowed is moving up, and his walk rate is much higher in recent outings.

The over is 7-0 in the A's last 7 vs. an AL West team. The over is 6-0 in Montas' last 6 starts. The over is 7-0 in the Astros last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in Cole's last 5 starts at home. A 25-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The San Francisco Giants start Madison Bumgarner on Sunday. Bumgarner started out a bit slowly after he came back from his long DL stint at the start of the season, but he has been much better of late. Bumgarner has allowed 3 runs in his last 21 innings combined. 

Jack Flaherty has been terrific this year. Flaherty has a swinging strike rate of 12.7%, which shows he's fooling a lot of hitters. Flaherty throws 93 and 94 mph on the fastball, but he has very good movement on that pitch. He does a nice job limiting hard contact as well. 

Both of these offense rate in the mediocre category when you look at the advanced data. 

Sunday has been easily the best under day in baseball in the long run, and we have a solid under umpire here in Brian O'Nora. His strikeout/walk ratio is easily over 3 this year. The under is 12-3-1 in O'Nora's last 16 Sunday games behind home plate.

Both teams have some nice under trends. The under is 5-0-1 in Flaherty's last 6 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 last starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0-1 in Bumgarner's last 6 when the Giants are coming off a loss. The under is 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 home starts. A 22-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Mike Foltynewicz and Freddy Peralta have both been spectacular this year. Foltynewicz has broken out in a big way this year. He's always been a guy that was expected to be very good, but he hasn't proven it until this year. Foltynewicz has allowed 1 run or less in 9 of his last 11 starts. That's tremendous consistency from the Braves right hander. He does a good job at limiting hard contact, and his swinging strike rate is higher this year than at any other time in his career. 

Freddy Peralta is a youngster who has been dominant so far this year. Peralta has a ridiculous strikeout rate of 13.01 strikeouts per nine innings. He has an amazing 14.1% swinging strike rate. Peralta has allowed no runs in 3 of his 5 starts so far this year. The Braves have been elite against lefties so far this year, but they have been mediocre against righties. 

The under is a whopping 20-5-1 in the Brewers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 85-40-5 in the Brewers last 130 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in Foltynewicz's last 4 starts vs. Milwaukee.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jacob Degrom has been tremendous all year. Degrom is getting an amazing 15.5% swinging strikes this year. That's among the best in the majors. Add in that hitters are only making hard contact 29.2% of the time on batted balls off Degrom and you have an elite pitcher. 

The Tampa Bay offense is one of the worst in the majors, and they'll be minus a hitter here. The Rays have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 8 games. Tampa Bay is worse against right handed pitching, and Degrom is one of the best in the majors.

New York's offense hasn't been good either. Ryne Stanek is the opening pitcher for the Rays here, and this opening pitcher strategy has worked great for the Rays. Tampa Bay's bullpen ERA is the best in baseball since they started this new method. 

The weather here is a big help with winds blowing in at about 13-15 mph. Citi Field is a pitcher's park to start with, and winds do make a big difference here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Diamondbacks rank 27th in weighted on base average in the majors so far this year against right handed pitching. Arizona has a weak bottom of the order and that has hurt them quite a bit this year.

While St. Louis has been decent against right handed pitching, the Cardinals rank 21st in weighted on base average against lefties this year. 

Miles Mikolas is only walking 1.13 batters per nine innings this year. Minimizing walks to that degree can really help in limiting damage. Mikolas has also gotten a lot of softly hit fly balls. 

Patrick Corbin has been great this year. Corbin has 1 walk and 17 strikeouts in his last two starts. Corbin is using his slider much more this year, and it is a great pitch. In 8 of his 17 starts so far this year, Corbin has allowed 1 run or less. 

Tony Randazzo has been striking guys out at a really high rate this year behind the plate, and he should help both pitchers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night. Colorado has bounced back in the last few games, and it has been largely because they have gotten a lot more length out of their starting pitchers and their bullpen isn't so gassed. Colorado has a couple good bullpen arms in Ottovino (excellent) and Davis. Both of those guys are well rested for this game and that is important. 

Tyler Anderson has thrown the ball well of late, and his career ERA at Coors Field is better than his ERA on the road. Anderson is good at creating soft contact, and that helps a lot here. 

Andrew Suarez has pitched into some bad luck this year, but he's a solid youngster as well. Suarez is pitching his best in recent games, and if his batting average on balls in play regresses to the mean, his ERA should drop in the long run as well.

Bill Miller is the umpire here and he is definitely one of the best under umpires in the business. His strikeout/walk ratio is consistently one of the highest in the majors. The weather calls for winds blowing in from center field at about 10 mph here also.

The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 against a lefty. The under is 3-0-1 in Suarez's last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 after scoring five runs or more last game. The under is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 19-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching at a miserable level of .286. The Pirates rank 23rd in the same category. Pittsburgh has hit lefties well, but right handed pitching has been a problem for them. 

Jameson Taillon is a very solid pitcher who limits the free passes he gives up. Taillon has a 2.87 ERA in 17 career day games.

Tyson Ross has a career ERA of 2.91 at Petco Park. This is one of the best parks in the majors for pitchers. 

The Padres bullpen ranks 10th best in the majors for the season in SIERA and the Pirates rank 10th best. These are two very good bullpens. 

Sunday is the best under day by a wide margin in the majors overall in the past 15 years. These afternoon games to finish off a series can lead to some key hitters getting the day off. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Colorado Rockies are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. Colorado is only 23rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitchers. The Rockies go against lefty Rich Hill in this one.

Hill has struggled so far this season. He has gone less than six innings and allowed 3 runs or more in 5 of his 7 starts. He has already allowed 11 barreled hits in 97 batted balls, and he allowed just 10 of those in 240 batted balls two years ago. Batters are hitting the ball very hard against him.

Tyler Anderson has allowed a very high .427 wOBA against the Dodgers in his career. Justin Turner has 10 hits in 18 at bats against him. Anderson has a 4.62 ERA and a 4.70 FIP so far this year. The Rockies bullpen has a ridiculous 7.90 ERA in the last month. 

The Dodgers bullpen is worn out. They have thrown the third most innings of any bullpen in the past month. 

Both teams hit lefties well and both lefties are vulnerable here. This is a low posted total given all these factors.

The over is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 Friday games. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Hill's last 4 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the NL West. A 24-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Taking unders early in the CFL season has been a very profitable system in the long run. That has been even more true when the totals are set high. In the first 6 games of the CFL season, games with a total of 53.5 or higher have gone under the total at a 60.6% clip since 2005.

Calgary's defense has been tremendous early in the season, and Ottawa has been better on that side of the ball than in previous years as well. 

The fact that these teams have played high scoring games in the last few years against each other has propped up this number a bit too much. Some of those games were aided by overtime as well.

This is a high number and I see value on the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Yankees have been on amazing under run of late. The under is 19-2 in the Yankees last 21 games. In a long season like the MLB season, you'll often find some trends like this that can continue for quite some time. I try not to fight those trends any more than I have to.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for Wednesday night's contest between the Yankees and the Phillies, and Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in the majors. There's no other guy you'd want behind the plate for an under.

Cessa is a middle of the road pitcher, but the Phillies offense is inconsistent. Cessa is backed by the best bullpen in the majors.

Eflin has his swinging strike rate up to 10.1% this year. He's throwing harder and getting much softer contact. Only 28.2% of batted balls against him have been classified as hard hit. 

The under is 9-0 in the Yankees last 9 interleague games. The under is 6-0 in Cessa's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in the Phillies last 6 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A 25-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Ross Stripling has quickly turned into a terrific pitcher. A deep dive into his numbers shows a guy who is no fluke. Stripling is allowing only 25.7% of batted balls to be hit hard. He is also striking out 10.58 batters per nine innings. He is walking only 1.37 per nine innings. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his 10 starts so far this year. 

Jon Lester has allowed the Dodgers lineup to hit only .198 in his career. Lester has allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of his last 10 starts. 

The Dodgers and Cubs both have solid bullpens. 

Bill Miller is a tremendous under umpire. His strike zone is big to start with, and it expands with two strikes on the batter. That should be a big help to both of these pitchers who are good at nibbling at the corners.

The under is 19-5-2 in Stripling's last 26 starts. The under is 22-8 in the Cubs last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Mets offense has been dreadful of late. The Mets had one good series offensively in Colorado, but outside of that they have been really bad. 

The Mets rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average at home (.279). That's easily worst in the majors. Brandon Nimmo has been the team's most consistent hitter, and he will likely miss this game after getting injured on Sunday. Cespedes continues to be out. Jay Bruce and Juan Lagares are out as well.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have crushed lefties this year, but they are worse than the average big league team against right handed pitching. 

Jameson Taillon has been great on the road, and his advanced stats show he's thrown it better than his ERA would suggest. He's due for some positive regression.

Seth Lugo has been nearly unhittable at home so far this year. Lugo's higher velocity combined with his excellent curveball make him a guy who should continue to have success. 

The wind is blowing in here at about 10 mph at Citi Field for this one. This is a park that has a great under record with the wind blowing in. 

The under is 4-0 in Lugo's last 4 home starts. The under is 5-0 in Taillon's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the NL East.  A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers are expected to be without Lorenzo Cain and likely Ryan Braun for this series finale. The Cardinals are still without Paul DeJong as well.

Jhoulys Chacin has a 2.31 ERA at home so far this year. Chacin has had some drastic home/road splits the last few years. Chacin is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Brewers should have Josh Hader and Corey Knebel available for this one. 

Luke Weaver is due for some positive regression. Weaver has elite stuff and his advanced metrics suggest he is better than his ERA would make you think.

With this being a Sunday afternoon game- don't be surprised if even a healthy key bat or two is missing from the lineup here.

The under is 38-16-2 in Mike Winters' last 56 Sunday games behind the dish. Winters is a bit of an under umpire in general, and Sunday has been the best under day in MLB overall.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Saskatchewan's offense is a big question mark. Zach Collaros hasn't proven himself, and this offense was brutal in the preseason. Though they scored 27 points in week one against Toronto, that total is misleading. Toronto's defense kept Saskatchewan drives alive many times with stupid penalties. Saskatchewan also had a pick six in the game.

Ottawa's defense should be above average this year. They have a solid secondary and I see them giving Collaros trouble.

Saskatchewan might not have the offensive pieces many other teams have, but they are very talented on defense. 

This game fits an under system for June-August in CFL. Taking the under with a total of 50.5 or higher and a spread of home team anywhere from -11.5 to +3 gets you 154 unders and just 94 overs (62.1% under).

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Athletics go up against a young lefty in Joey Lucchesi for the Padres here. Oakland is 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties, and Lucchesi has a unique delivery that often catches people off guard the first few times they face him. 

Frankie Montas is a pretty highly rated prospect in the A's organization, and he starts this one for Oakland. San Diego is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Not having seen Montas should be a negative for the Padres as well.

This is a get away day game and that is a positive for the under. The pitcher batting for Oakland is a big positive here as well.

Both of these teams have multiple key hitters out with injuries, and the short-handed lineups simply aren't very good.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale here. Sale is as dominant as any lefty in the game right now. Sale has a ridiculously high swinging strike rate of 15.4%. He is allowing far less hard contact than he did last year. Sale is also good at limiting his walks and making hitters beat him, and not too many can beat Sale when he is throwing it well.

The Twins offense ranks 20th in the majors against left handed pitching according to weighted on base average. Minnesota has been terrible against lefties in the last month, and this is as tough of a matchup as they will ever get.

Jose Berrios has been amazing at home in the last couple seasons. Berrios' swinging strike rate was only 9.4% last year, but it is all the way up at 11.8% this season. Berrios is walking only 1.51 batters per nine innings. His ERA is 3.51, but his FIP is 3.33 and his SIERA is 3.29. 

The under is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 following a day off. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in the Red Sox last 5 in game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Twing last 4 games vs. a left handed starter. A 31-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The New York Yankees have seen 12 straight games go under the total. The Yankees offense is still very good, but their totals have been set too high considering they have arguably the best bullpen in the majors and a quality starting staff too.

Seattle's bullpen is top 6 in the majors in most statistics as well. The Mariners start Marco Gonzales here. Gonzales has been highly rated as a prospect for quite some time. He didn't throw it well in his first couple years in the bigs, but he has a very solid 3.42 ERA and a 3.20 FIP so far this season. 

Domingo German has a very high swinging strike rate of 15.6%. German has a lot of spin on his breaking ball, and his upside is high. 

The wind is blowing in for this contest.

The under is 12-0 in the Yankees last 12 games. The under is 9-0 in their last 9 following a win. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. The under is 4-0 in German's last 4 games. A 36-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of their last 15 games. The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 12 of their last 15 contests. New York's offense has been woeful in recent weeks. 

The Mets aren't good offensively against either side, but they are woeful against left-handed pitching. The Mets have a .261 weighted on base average against lefties. That's worst in the majors by a mile. The second worst wOBA against lefties is the Marlins and they are at .291. 

Tyler Anderson has been good at Coors Field with a 3.73 ERA there in his career. Anderson has a high 12.1% swinging strike rate going so far this year.

Jacob Degrom has been one of the top three pitchers in baseball so far this year. Degrom has been spectacular. He has a 1.55 ERA and a 1.98 FIP. His swinging strike rate is a ridiculous 15.1% on the season. Degrom has allowed 182 batted balls this year and according to Baseball Savant only 5 of those balls have been barreled. Degrom is getting lots of swings and misses and lots of weak contact.

It's Coors Field and games can certainly get high scoring, but it helps to have wind blowing in at 10 mph here.

The under is 7-0 in the Mets last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in Degrom's last 5 road starts. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. An 18-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres rank 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Braves have actually been better offensively on the road than at home. Atlanta has a very talented young offense, but they have been slumping a bit of late. The Braves have scored 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 8 contests.

Sean Newcomb is more than capable of dominating a game. Newcomb sometimes struggles with walks, but having a major strike caller behind the plate in the form of home plate umpire Doug Eddings is a big help for him.

Jordan Lyles has improved from last year, and I would expect him to be the type of guy who benefits from Eddings behind the plate as well.

Eddings has called the highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the last five years. 

The under is 12-5 in Newcomb's last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox start Carlos Rodon here. Rodon was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball a couple years ago. He's dealt with quite a few injuries, but he's been in great form in the minors this year, and his upside is tremendous. Rodon had a 1.42 ERA and averaged more than 15 strikeouts per nine innings in his 3 Triple A appearances earlier this year. He has held the Indians lineup to a very low .251 weighted on base average in his career.

Mike Clevinger has proven to be a solid pitcher at this point in his career. He pitches fairly deep into the game and he's up against a White Sox lineup that is badly struggling right now. Clevinger has a terrific 3.06 ERA in day games in his career. 

The wind is blowing in about 8 mph for this one and the temperature is fairly moderate for this time of year. 

It's a get away day game where it is very likely we'll see some key players sitting this one out.

The under is 4-0 in the White Sox last 4 home games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the AL Central. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. A 16-0 angle combined.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks still rank second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching for the year. They have hit really well of late, but I don't think this is a good offense long-term without Pollock healthy. 

Jameson Taillon is an above average pitcher who has pitched into some bad luck so far this year. Taillon's velocity is up this year and so is his swinging strike rate. I expect him to have a solid season.

Zack Greinke has been very good this year. Greinke isn't issuing many free passes at all, and this Pirates offense has been much better against lefties than righties.

Both of these offenses are much better against lefties than righties, and both see a quality right handed starter here.

Ryan Blakney is behind the plate and he's one of the best under umpires in the game. This is also a get away day game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies offense has hit left handed pitching very well this year, but they have been bad against right handers. They face one of the top young right handed starters in the game now in Aaron Nola. 

The Phillies are also much better against left handed pitching. They are up against Jon Gray, who is a good pitcher and due for some positive regression. Gray has a 5.66 ERA, but an impressive 3.12 FIP and 3.21 xFIP. Gray is getting 12.2% swinging strikes this year, and all of his advanced statistics are the best they have been in his career.

Nola has allowed more than 3 runs only one time this year. He has allowed 2 or less in 10 of his 13 starts. His consistency has been really impressive.

I see a lower scoring game here with both starters throwing the ball well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves have crushed left handed pitching this year. The Braves are second in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Braves have been mediocre against righties this year. 

Ross Stripling has been as underrated as anyone in the majors so far this year. Stripling has a ridiculously low ERA and his FIP of 1.99 suggests it isn't just luck. Stripling mixes up his pitches well and gets a lot of late movement. Stripling has allowed just 5 runs in his last 35 innings pitched. Stripling has 4 walks and 47 strikeouts during that time.

Sean Newcomb has been great for the Braves this year. Newcomb has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of his 12 starts this year.

Bill Miller is the umpire here and he's a great under umpire. The under is 42-14 in Miller's last 56 Sunday games behind the plate. His strike percentage is one of the highest in the majors every year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Koch's numbers in Triple A weren't good. In the majors, Koch has been fortunate and has a quality ERA. His advanced numbers suggest regression is coming as he continues to give up lots of hard contact and he can't miss bats often enough.

Chad Bettis is much worse pitching at home compared to on the road. Bettis has a 5.48 ERA in his career at home. Bettis is another low strikeout guy, and his style of pitching doesn't match this ballpark well at all.

The Rockies bullpen is worse without Ottavino. The DBacks bullpen and the Rockies bullpen have been used heavily of late.

The temperature of 95 degrees during this game is a big positive for the over. That kind of heat at Coors Field is great for the ball to carry well. 

Both offenses appear to be breaking out of their funks, and I see this as a matchup of two very weak starters.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's never easy to take an under at Coors Field, but this Rockies team is definitely different than Colorado teams from the past 10 years or so. They are much less of an offensive juggernaut now and they are winning a lot of games with pitching.

German Marquez was a highly touted prospect all through his time in the minors. Marquez has thrown the ball really well in his last four games. His velocity is up quite a bit from last year, and he's starting to generate more swings and misses.

Zack Greinke has pitched pretty well at Coors Field in his career. Greinke is having another very solid season this year and he's backed by a good bullpen.

The DBacks are dead last at 30th in the majors in weighted on base average against righties. Teh Rockies aren't much better at 24th. 

The under is 9-3 in Marquez's last 12 home starts. The under is 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs. the DBacks. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Vegas Golden Knights have to win to keep their season alive here. Vegas pushes the pace and in the first two games of this series played at Vegas there were all kinds of quality looks on goal. 

Washington has gotten great goalie play from Holtby, but they do still have questionable defense in front of Holtby.

The Knights are having trouble with the Capitals offensive passing game around the net. 

Because of the importance of this game, a pulled goalie early leading to an easy score or two wouldn't be a surprise.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense is expected to get Todd Frazier back in time for this game. That helps the middle of the order quite a bit.

The Baltimore Orioles offense has been really inconsistent of late, but there's no doubt that this unit is much healthier and more dangerous now than they were earlier this year.

Baltimore has been siginificantly better against lefties than righties. The Mets have been much better against right handed pitching than lefties. 

Jason Vargas and Alex Cobb have both thrown the ball poorly this year and are capable of giving up a bunch at any time. They are backed by two poor bullpens who are gassed right now.

The Mets have allowed 7 runs or more in 5 of their last 10 games. With two subpar starters and two tired bullpens I like this one to go over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Indians offense has been tremendous of late. They have scored 9 runs or more on their own ten times in the past month alone. The Indians offense is getting great productivity at the top of the order and that is setting the table nicely. 

Kyle Gibson starts for the Twins, and while Gibson has been better this year, he's a very inconsistent pitcher, and his numbers both at home and against the Indians are terrible. In his career, Gibson has an awful 5.82 ERA against Cleveland. His ERA at home against Cleveland is just above 7. Gibson is worse at home and worse during the day in his career as well.

Cleveland starts Mike Clevinger here, and he's been pretty good, but the bullpen has been the worst in the majors in the past month. They have been used heavily of late, and they are capable of giving up tons of runs in a hurry.

The wind is expected to be blowing out at almost 20 mph for this one. Both offenses have the potential to put up a big number here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks have really struggled offensively this year. They have struggled the most at home at Chase Field. They are 28th in the majors in weighted on base average at home. The under is 18-10-2 in their home games this year. The humidor seems to be making a difference here, and now with Pollock out the Dbacks are without a top hitter.

Zack Greinke is a really consistent pitcher. Greinke has a 3.65 ERA this year, but his xFIP is 3.18 and SIERA is 3.10- so he's been pretty unlucky. Greinke will face a Marlins lineup that is arguably the worst in the majors in this one. He's backed a DBacks bullpen that is a top six or eight bullpen in the majors.

Caleb Smith has been a big surprise this year. Smith's stats are really impressive. He has worked at least 5 and 1/3 innings and allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. Smith is striking out ore than 11 batters per nine innings. 

Kerwin Danley is the umpire here. The under is a whopping 91-50 in his last 141 games behind home plate. He should help both pitchers by giving them the corners more than most umpires would.

The under is 6-0-2 in the DBacks last 8 home games vs a left handed starter. The under is 5-0 in Greinke's last 5 starts overall. An 11-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs offense has been great in the past month. Since May 7, the Cubs have scored 8 runs or more eight different times. The Cubs rank third in the majors in weighted on base average.

Tyler Chatwood is on the mound here for the Cubs. Chatwood is walking more than 8 batters per nine innings. That's an outrageous number. He has walked five batters or more in 7 of his 10 starts this year. The Mets rank tenth best in the majors at drawing walks.  

Chatwood has a 4.75 FIP on the year and he has a SIERA above 6. He has been very fortunate with the lack of home runs allowed this season. That should regress toward the mean. 

Zack Wheeler has been inconsistent this year. Wheeler has an ERA over 5 and the Mets bullpen is absolutely gassed right now as well.

The wind is expected to be blowing out about 6-8 mph here with a temperature of almost 80 degrees. Adrian Johnson is the home plate umpire and the over is 54.5% in his career behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Oakland A's offense started the season on fire, but they have been in a terrible slump of late. In 6 of their last 9 games they have scored 2 runs or less. They haven't scored more than 4 runs in any of their last 9 games. 

Though Stanek is the starter here for Tampa Bay, it is expected that Ryan Yarbrough will come in and pitch the majority of this game. The Rays have successfully used this start the bullpen guy strategy and then use a young pitcher for the majority of the game. Yarbrough is a quality lefty who has good control and can induce a lot of soft contact. Oakland is 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The A's are also tied for last in weighted on base average in home games. 

Tampa Bay's offense should regress toward the mean over time. The Rays offense isn't as good as it has has looked so far this year. Their batting average on balls in play is second highest in the majors. 

Daniel Mengden averages less than one walk per game, and he has been locked in of late. I think he pitches well here.

The under is 13-3 in the A's last 16 home games. The under is 4-0-1 in the Rays last 5 road games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Shohei Ohtani has been tremendous so far this year. Ohtani faces a Tigers lineup that has been pretty good against lefties, but against right handed pitching they have really struggled this year. They are without their star in Miguel Cabrera. Ohtani's swinging strike rate is 15.4%, which is extremely high. He's fooling people badly, and I think he pitches well here.

Mike Fiers is a bit of a wild card, but there are some factors to help him here. Fiers is a guy who nibbles at the corners a lot and Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in the majors. Fiers has a 0.59 ERA in 4 career appearances with Eddings behind home plate. 

The wind is expected to be blowing in from center field at a sustained rate of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph during this one. That's really significant at this ballpark. With this weather and a terrific under umpire, I like the value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There are a few factors at work in this one. First, Kenta Maeda is absolutely dealing of late. Maeda has thrown shutouts in each of his last two starts. He has 4 walks and 20 strikeouts in those two starts. Maeda's swinging strike rate is all the way up to 14.4% this year. He's throwing the ball extremely well and he's at home at a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Jake Arrieta isn't getting swings and misses like Maeda, but he is getting a ton of soft contact. He's been getting hitters to roll over on a lot of pitches. Arrieta's hard hit fly ball rate is among the lowest in the majors.

Kerwin Danley is the umpire here. He's among the best under umpires in the majors. The under is 90-50 in his last 140 games behind home plate. His strikeout/walk ratio is 8th in the majors in the past five years.

The Dodgers have allowed 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. The Dodgers bullpen is finally rounding into form. Philadelphia's offense has struggled on the road.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves are elite against left handed pitching, but against right handed pitching they are actually below the league average in weighted on base average. Atlanta is expected to be without Acuna here after he was injured on Sunday, and that's a big loss in the lineup.

Jacob Degrom has been fantastic this year for the Mets. Degrom has a 1.54 ERA and a terrific 1.89 FIP on the season. His swinging strike rate is all the way up to 15%, which is about as good as you will ever see. Degrom has been one of the best in the majors this year. He has a career ERA of only 1.97 in day games. He has a career ERA of only 1.89 in 13 starts against Atlanta.

Max Fried is a talented young lefty for the Braves. Fried goes against a Mets lineup that ranks last by a large margin in weighted on base average against lefties. The Mets lineup is a really weak one without Cespedes and Frazier, especially against left handed pitching.

Both lineups are banged up going into this one and I like the starting pitching matchup.

The under is 6-0 in Degrom's last 6 starts. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's all on the line here in Boston on Sunday night. It's 3-3 and this is game seven. LeBron James and the Cavs shot the ball extremely well on Friday night en route to a 109-99 win over the Celtics in Cleveland. 

On the surface it would look like things didn't slow down as the games got more important in game six, but they actually did. The pace of game six was the slowest of any game in this series thus far. Both teams just shot the ball better than normal. The Cavs also got 15 offensive rebounds, which is not at all the usual for them. Boston made 12/28 from 3 point range in the loss. 

This game means everything to both teams and it would be surprising if the tempo sped up at all here. Every possession matters more. The winner of this game will be in the NBA Finals. 

Kevin Love is questionable for game seven with an injury, and if he misses the game or is less than 100 percent that helps the under. Love is a good offensive player, but he is a subpar defensive player. 

Look for better defensive effort and lower shooting percentages here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies start Nick Pivetta here. Pivetta is one of the most improved pitchers in baseball. He was tremendous in the minors, but struggled in the big leagues last year. He's getting ahead in the count and not making near as many mistakes this year. Pivetta's swinging strike rate was an average 8.7% last year and it has jumped to an impressive 11.3% this year. Pivetta has a 3.23 ERA and his FIP is even better at 2.86. 

J.A. Happ has been great so far this year. Happ had a swinging strike rate of 9.4% last year, but it has jumped to 12.0% this season. He's been much sharper with his slider, and that gives hitters something extra to worry about. In 4 of his last 6 starts, Happ has gone at least 7 innings and allowed 2 runs or less. 

Both of these bullpens were used a lot less yesterday thanks to some good work by the starting pitchers, and that helps make more of the best bullpen guys available in this one. 

The wind blowing in at 10-15 mph during this game is a nice help.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New York Mets offense is a mess without Cespedes, Frazier, and Lagares. The Brewers offense has underachieved all season. 

Noah Syndergaard is a top young talent. Syndergaard contains a rare combination of great command and great swing and miss stuff. Very few pitchers that have the swing and miss stuff that he has are able to throw strikes as consistently as Syndergaard. 

Junior Guerra has been solid this year. Guerra has an impressive 3.02 ERA at home in his career. He's backed by a fantastic bullpen. All of the Brewers top bullpen guys should be available in this one.

Mike Muchlinski is the home plate umpire and that's a plus for the under as well. He has consistently had a higher strikeout/walk ratio than the average umpire.

The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 13 games. The Brewers offense has been shut down multiple times of late as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets have now scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 12 games. The Mets offense wasn't great to start with, but now they are severely shorthanded with their best bats out of the lineup due to injuries.

Zach Davies is a mediocre pitcher, but he says he is healthy again now and his numbers should improve a bit from his relatively slow start. Davies has good career numbers against the Mets in a small sample size as well. 

Steven Matz goes against a Brewers offense that has been bad against lefties this year. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

In the last 30 days- these two teams rank 24th and 29th overall in the majors in weighted on base average. These offenses have been struggling.

The Mets bullpen is average, but the Brewers bullpen is elite. The Mets don't give us many reasons to expect them to score much here, and the Brewers numbers against lefties are very poor.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's hard to overstate how great Jacob Degrom has been this year. Degrom has a 1.75 ERA and a 1.82 FIP, so it hasn't been good luck, he's just been tremendous. Degrom walked none and struck out 13 in a dazzling performance in his last outing. In his last 27 innings pitched, he has allowed a grand total of one run. 

Degrom has always been great at Citi Field. He has a career ERA of 2.31 at home. His WHIP is only 1.037 at home in his career.

The Marlins have the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching, and it isn't close. Degrom should be able to shut them down and pitch deep into this game.

Dan Straily has pitched much better in his last couple games, and he's going against a Mets lineup that is severely short-handed right now. The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 11 games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins are expected to be without Joe Mauer here as he left last night's game due to a minor back injury. Miguel Sano is still out due to an injury as well. Sano is their best power hitter and Mauer is their most consistent hitter overall. This lineup is significantly weakened right now.

Ryan Braun is on the DL for the Brewers, and they certainly miss his bat. The Brewers rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in almost all major offensive categories so far this year. Milwaukee's bullpen has been absolutely amazing, and they haven't been overworked of late, so most of their top arms should be available here.

Freddy Peralta faced 21 batters at Coors Field in his MLB debut and he struck out 13 of them. I don't have to tell you that isn't an easy task. Peralta hides the ball extremely well and his deceptive delivery should make him tough for hitters the first few times they see him. He has been very good in Triple A.

Fernando Romero has been excellent in his first three big league starts. He has a 12.9% swinging strike rate. Romero consistently throws 97 or 98 mph and still manages to do a solid job limiting hard contact.

Mark Ripperger is behind the plate and I consider him a big under umpire. He ranks in the top six in the majors in strike percentage called in the past five years. The wind is blowing in as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks go to New York City to take on the Mets on Friday night. The Diamondbacks offense has been one of the most disappointing in the majors. Arizona is where they are at right now because of their pitching staff. The Mets started the season hitting the ball well, but injuries stopped them in their tracks in recent weeks.

Arizona is without A.J. Pollock and Jake Lamb due to injury and that is two key losses. Pollock had been on fire offensively until getting hurt a few days ago. 

The Mets are without Todd Frazier and Yoenis Cespedes here. They might also be without Juan Lagares. 

On the season, the Mets are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average and the Diamondbacks are 28th. 

Godley has proven to be a quality starting pitcher and Arizona's bullpen is great. 

Jacob Degrom hasn't allowed a run in his last 20 innings pitched. Degrom has tremendous splits at home throughout his career, and his swinging strike rate is a career high 14.7%. He's pitching at an elite level.

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 12 mph in this one at Citi Field with temperatures only in the 50's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Celtics coasted to a 108-83 win in game one of this series. Cleveland was 4/26 from 3 point range in that game. The Cavs have some reliable 3 point shooters, and it is hard to imagine them not improving drastically from 3 point range in game two.

Boston's offense showed an ability to get into the paint at will. The Celtics have a quickness advantage at nearly every spot on the floor, and Brad Stevens' team should be able to continue to get to the rim against a Cavs defense that ranked second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season.

In the last regular season game between these two, the total was 213. The total in game one was 204.5 and even 205 at some books. There has been a big adjustment made.

Cleveland and Boston both got fewer offensive rebounds than normal in game one, and they both got to the line less than normal. Even with Cleveland's miserable shooting performance, the game was within 12 points of this total.

I think the Celtics will look to score some in transition with their quickness advantage, and I see the Cavs offense looking much better here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both Tampa Bay and Kansas City are much better against left handed pitching than they are against right handers. Tampa Bay is 4th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Kansas City is 15th. 

We have two young lefties going in this one, and neither of these guys have been able to pitch deep into the game very often. Kansas City's bullpen is the worst in the majors, and Tampa Bay's bullpen is no better than league average. A lot of innings from the bullpens should mean more scoring chances.

The weather here is very favorable for an over. A temperature in the mid 80's and winds blowing out 13-15 mph are great for the over. There is a chance of rain as well- that could delay the game which means more of the bullpen and in this case that is a positive.

The Royals have allowed a whopping 49 runs in their last six games. The Rays have allowed 35 runs in their last 4 games. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays start Joe Biagini here. Biagini pitched decently last year for a while in the starter's role for Toronto, but the wheels fell off after a while. He didn't pitch very well in Triple A as a starter earlier this year, and now he has an 8.10 ERA in two starts in the big leagues this year.

The Boston Red Sox are easily first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Boston has the second lowest strikeout rate against right handed pitching, and they are second best in isolated power. Biagini has a 6.48 ERA against the Red Sox in his career. Mookie Betts has 6 hits in 11 at bats off him, and two of those hits are homers.

Drew Pomeranz is having some major problems this year. His average fastball velocity is down about 2.5 miles per hour from last year. Pomeranz is giving up much more hard contact this year, and he's pitching from behind in the count more than normal.

Both bullpens have been overworked in recent days. Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire here, and he's one of the best over umpires in baseball. While Sunday is a big under day long term in MLB- the over is 42-17-1 in Meals' last 60 Sunday games behind the plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Twins take on the Angels on Saturday night. Kyle Gibson takes the mound for the Twins. Nick Tropeano is on the hill for the Angels. 

Gibson had been terrible through most of his career, but he has improved so far this season. I'm still a bit skeptical that it is a big breakout. Gibson has struggled badly against the Angels in the past and this is a big test for him. The Angels have a .383 weighted on base average as a team against Gibson. Gibson still has control issues, and I think that will catch up to him over time.

Nick Tropeano is coming off the DL to make this start. Tropeano is no better than a league average pitcher even when he is healthy.

In the past two weeks, the Angels are first in the majors in weighted on base average as a team and the Twins are fourth. Both bullpens are worse than the league average as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets are both teams that play at a quick pace. There have been tons of great scoring opportunities both in the regular season meetings and in this playoff series between these two. 

When it comes to expected goals- none of the first six games were under 5.5 goals. There were a couple great showings by the goalies in there, but the offenses continue to produce great scoring chances.

Looking at the last ten meetings between these two teams, six of those games have finished with 8 goals or more. Yes, this is a game 7 and it means a ton to both teams, but that is more than priced into this line. 

We're getting a significant plus money price on the over at 5.5 when the over was 6 (-105) just a couple games ago in this series. 

The losing team would be very aggressive pulling the goalie late here which could lead to empty netters late.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers both shot the ball extremely well in the first couple games of the series. They have come back down to earth in their shooting in the last couple games. Closeout games in the NBA playoffs have tended to go under the total in a pretty big way in the past ten years, and I see some value on the under here.

Boston's defense ranked in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were first in the NBA in 3 point FG percentage defense. Philadelphia was third in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the season. They were second in 3 point FG percentage defense. 

Ben Simmons is a great player, but his decision making and the decision making by the rest of the primary ball handlers on this 76ers team has hurt them in key spots in the playoffs. The 76ers had the highest turnover rate in the NBA this year.

There were 52 free throws in Game 4, which is a good amount higher than average in the NBA. In a game of this magnitude, the pace tends to slow down and the defenses play extremely hard.

A basic playoff system is a total of 196 or higher with a spread of the home team anywhere from -2.5 to +5.5 and the home team coming off a loss of 7 points or more. In those games, the under is 42-19 (68.9%). If you add in one more filter of public betting percentage of 40% or lower on the under it goes to 31-11 (73.3% to the under. This game fits the system.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays haven't had their typical success against lefties so far this year (they are near the middle of the pack against lefties thus far), but with Josh Donaldson back in the lineup I expect them to improve a lot against lefties. 

Seattle is top ten in almost every major offensive category against left handed pitchers. The Mariners have several good right handed platoon guys who have made a career of hitting lefties. 

Wade LeBlanc starts for the Mariners here. LeBlanc has pitched pretty well at home in his career (most of those starts have been in pitcher friendly San Diego and Seattle), but LeBlanc has an ERA of just a tick higher than 6.5 in road starts in his career. He is a below average lefty.

Jaime Garcia isn't the pitcher he once was. He has always been streaky, and he's in really poor form coming into this game. Garcia threw it well in his first start of the year, but since then he hasn't gone more than 5 and 1/3 in any outing, and he's allowed at least 3 runs in every game. His last two outings have been terrible.

Osuna is out for the Blue Jays which makes their bullpen much worse. The Mariners bullpen has been shaky this year as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike of any home plate umpire in the last 6 years. It isn't very close either. Eddings has consistently had an extremely high strikeout/walk ratio. He's arguably the best under umpire in the game, and he's behind home plate here.

Sean Manaea and Lance McCullers Jr. are two young guys with elite stuff. Both of them have been victimized by walks in the past, but their control has been better so far this season. Eddings will help both of these guys when it comes to expanding the strike zone a bit.

The A's are a good offense, but they are better against right handed pitching than lefties. Houston's bullpen is elite and that certainly helps the under a great deal as well.

In 161 AB's vs. Manaea- the Astros have a very poor .267 weighted on base average. In 55 AB's against McCullers, the A's have a .254 weighted on base average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox offense is banged up pretty badly right now. Moncada had just started to heat up when he went down with an injury. Avasail Garcia is also out with an injury. 

In Chicago's last 26 games, they have scored 2 runs or less 13 times. The White Sox are now injury depleted the most they have been all year on offense.

Pittsburgh's offense isn't as good as they have looked early in the year. On the road, Pittsburgh is now down to 20th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA). The White Sox are much weaker on offense at home (26th in wOBA).

Giolito has shown positive signs in his last couple starts, and his potential is very high. Nova has been a pretty solid pitcher the last couple years, and he's backed by a strong bullpen. 

The wind is blowing in for this one and that is key in this stadium.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Over* Vegas and San Jose have met nine times this year. Six of the nine meetings have seen at least 7 goals scored. Vegas is pushing the pace as much as they can in this series, and it is leading to opportunities both ways. 

The goalies in this series have only been mediocre to this point. There have been a lot of rebound chances for each side.

This is a spot where we could see plenty of empty net chances late because of desperation as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics torched the nets in Game One to defeat Philadelphia 117-101. Boston made a ton of tough 3 pointers in that one, and this Celtics team isn't made to win games like that. Boston wins with defense more often than not. The Celtics should get Jaylen Brown back for this one, and he's their best defender as well.

The Celtics and 76ers ranked number one and two in the NBA in 3 point field goal percentage defense in the regular season. In overall defensive efficiency numbers- the Celtics were first and Philly was 3rd in the season. These are two good defenses.

Boston doesn't want to get into a track meet with Philadelphia, and they were able to slow the pace down pretty well in Game One. 

Another reason to expect a lower scoring game here is the lack of turnovers in game one. Philadelphia carried a 16.0% turnover rate into Game One. They turned it over only 10.9% of the time. Boston carried a 14.1% turnover rate into Game One and they turned it over only 9.7% of the time. There should be more wasted trips in this contest.

Look for things to regress toward the mean here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Jason Vargas is a mediocre lefty, and he is coming off a fairly major injury. Vargas isn't likely to work deep into the game, and the Mets bullpen is worn out right now. 

Julio Teheran has good history against the Mets in Citi Field, but Teheran's advanced statistics this year suggest he has been fortunate thus far. His fastball velocity is down more than 2 mph from last year, and his hard hit rate allowed is up quite a bit. The Braves bullpen is a big problem as well. 

A large reason for this play is the weather. Temperatures in the upper 80's and winds blowing out at 15-20 mph are tremendous for the over. 

In the past 15 years- when the wind is blowing out at least 10 mph at Citi Field- the over is a whopping 116-67 (63.4% overs). If you look at totals of 8.5 or lower only, the over rate goes up to better than 66% during that span.

Two shaky starters and winds howling out on a hot day are a recipe for runs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather calls for temperatures in the low 80's and wind blowing out at about 15 mph during this game. That's very favorable conditions for an over.

Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he is one the best over umpires in baseball. Holbrook has seen 54.5% of his games in his career behind the dish go over the total. His strikeout/walk ratio is consistently low compared to the big league average.

Giolito has walked a lot more guys than he has struck out this year. He'll likely have trouble against a Cardinals lineup that is very deep. The White Sox bullpen is one of the worst in baseball as well.

Carlos Martinez is a good pitcher, but he is due for some regression due to his batted ball luck and his strand rate so far this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers start Michael Fulmer here. Fulmer has been superb both during his career in both the first half of the season and at home. Fulmer has a 2.76 ERA in the first half of the year vs. a 4.25 ERA in the second half. He has a 3.19 ERA at home. His WHIP when pitching at home is 1.051 vs. 1.23 on the road. Fulmer has been his very best in day games in his career. Fulmer's career WHIP during day games is 0.989. He gets a below average lineup at home in a day game here.

Blake Snell has been absolutely dealing of late. Snell has walked one batter and struck out 24 in his last three starts combined. Snell has allowed more than 2 runs in only one start this season. That is despite facing Boston twice and the Yankees once already this year. His swinging strike rate was 10.8% last year and it has jumped to 13.8% this year.

This is a get away day game and that should mean some regular guys get the day off. Miguel Cabrera is questionable due to an injury.

The weather calls for a strong breeze from the SW which should serve to slow down fly balls hit toward right field. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Vegas Golden Knights and San Jose Sharks have met six times this season. Four of those contests have finished with 7 goals or more. Vegas has a ton of speed and is good at creating quick scoring chances. San Jose has a major offensive weapon back in this one as Evander Kane returns from a suspension.

In the NHL playoffs, taking a plus money price on the over has been profitable in the long run. With a total of less than 6 goals and a plus money price- when both teams are allowing a defensive shooting percentage of 8.4% or higher the over has a 13.4% ROI in the last 15 years. In the last 10 years the ROI in this situation is 21%. 

This price gives us a good chance to grab the over. Look for a good amount of scoring chances each way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these offenses are excellent. Thus far in the season, Oakland is second in weighted on base average and Houston is 7th. These two lineups are more than capable of putting up big numbers. They have both done it very consistently. Houston has scored 7 runs or more in 7 of their last 10 games. Oakland has scored 8 runs or more in 7 of their last 15 games.

Gerrit Cole has been great so far this year, but you have to expect his numbers to regress some over time. Cole has stranded 92.4% of runners so far this year which can't continue long term. 

Trevor Cahill has only started two games and those were both against subpar offenses. The Astros are one of the best offenses in baseball. I don't trust Cahill, and he's backed by a mediocre bullpen.

Segal is a bit of an over umpire with a smaller than average strike zone and if the roof is open the wind is expected to be blowing out in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Joey Lucchesi has been tremendous so far this year. His deceptive delivery and interesting "churve" pitch have taken the league by storm. Until you have seen him at least once, I think most teams will struggle against him. The Mets are below average against lefties, and Lucchesi is backed by a top five bullpen in the majors as well.

Jason Vargas has historically been a great pitcher in the first half of the season and a terrible second half pitcher. The Padres are bottom five in the league in weighted on base average against lefties.

Marty Foster is the home plate umpire here and the under is 209-175 in his career behind home plate. He routinely calls a higher percentage of strikes than the normal home plate umpire. 

Look for a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds offense is much better than they have performed so far this year. They were without some key guys for long stretches earlier this year. Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez are back in the lineup now, and that should help in a big way. Joey Votto has heated up in the last few games, and he's still one of the best hitters in the game. 

Cincinnati's pitching staff is still a major problem. Romano isn't getting many swinging strikes, and he is getting behind in the count too often. 

Minnesota's offense is also better than they have shown this year. The Twins have guys like Sano and Dozier who should perform better than they have to this point. 

Odorizzi has been very fortunate in recent years with his ERA vs his FIP and xFIP, and I don't expect his fortunes to continue to be so good. His batting average on balls in play allowed is only .250 this year and that shows regression should be on the way.

These are two of the worst five bullpens in baseball. 

Tom Woodring is the umpire here and the over is 41-26 in his career behind the dish.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals host the Chicago White Sox here. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph. 

Danny Duffy has an 8.10 ERA in his last five starts against the White Sox. Duffy's control has been terrible this year, and his getting behind batters is making his home runs allowed rate even worse. He's a fly ball pitcher and with the wind blowing out that should hurt him.

Reynaldo Lopez has had a lot of trouble throwing strikes too. It hasn't hurt him so far very much, but in the long run when you aren't getting that high of a strikeout rate and you are getting behind a lot of people, it should hurt. 

The Royals have the worst bullpen in baseball, and the White Sox rank in the bottom 8 of baseball in relief pitching in almost every advanced statistic. 

Look for both teams to have plenty of scoring chances.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday night. Indiana is down 3-2 after LeBron James nailed the 3 pointer at the buzzer to finish game five in spectacular fashion for the Cavs.

Indiana's defense has played very well in this series. The Pacers are working hard to keep the Cavs out of the paint. The Pacers are also doing a great job slowing down the tempo in this series. 

All five of the games in this series have stayed under the total. I think this one has a good chance to stay under as well. Indiana cannot get into a track meet, and they have been better at controlling the pace on their home floor. 

Game five stayed under this number by double digits despite 54 free throw attempts and 47 made free throws. That is far above average, especially since these two teams both ranked in the top five in the NBA at defending without fouling.

Closeout games in the NBA playoffs have tilted under strongly for a long time- and that is even more the case when the team oddsmakers are lower on is the home team like the Pacers are here. 

This one should be a dog fight, and I'll look for a slow tempo with so much on the line for both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'm playing the under here as I look for the shooting numbers to normalize for these teams.

The Milwaukee Bucks have been shooting lights out the last 3 games. Milwaukee is shooting a ridiculous 56.3% from the floor in their last 3. They are shooting 45.2% from long distance. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.8% from the floor and 35.5% from 3 point range. 

Boston had the number one rated defensive when it comes to points allowed per possession during the regular season. The Celtics are better than they have shown defensively in this series. Marcus Smart was upgraded to questionable for this one and if he plays that is a big boost for the under.

The tempo in this series has been extremely slow. I expect that to continue. If you run efficiency projections for this game you come up with a total several points lower than this.

I'll expect a regression to the mean when it comes to shooting here in this pivotal game 5.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Blue Jackets host the Capitals in a game where Columbus will look to stay alive after leading 2-0 to start this series. A theme in this series has been lots of shots on goal. There have been at least 70 shots on goal total in 3 of the last 4 games. 

All shots on goal aren't created equal though, and that's what has made games between these two unique over time. Both teams are good at creating great scoring chances. There is a lot of pressure on the defenses and the goalies in these contests.

Six of the last nine games between these two have gone over the total. The three that stayed under all finished with 5 goals. 

Expect aggressive play and we could certainly see extended time with an empty net late in the game if someone has a lead.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers have their blueprint for making this a series. They slow the tempo of the game down and be aggressive on defense going for steals and disrupting the Cavs offensive flow. 

The average possessions per game in the four regular season meetings between these two teams was nearly 6 possessions quicker than the first three games of this series have been. Game 3 was the slowest paced game, and Indiana has typically been able to slow the game down more on their home floor so I expect a slower tempo again here.

The Cavs defense has been improved in the playoffs thus far. This game means a bunch to the Cavs, and I would expect effort from them here.

Both of these teams are good at defending without fouling which is key.

None of the first three games in this series have finished even close to this high. Looking at scoring efficiency numbers- I believe this total should be around 200.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Johnny Cueto is healthy this year and he is in the middle of a nice comeback season. I don't think he's the same pitcher he was a few years ago, but he isn't as bad as his numbers from last year suggest either. 

Barria is a highly touted prospect for the Angels who has shown good control in the minor leagues. The Giants lineup is a weak one to start with, and they will be without Pence and might be without Buster Posey again here as well.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here, and he has the highest strikes called percentage in the majors in the last five years. He's a big help to the under.

Sunday has been the best under day in the majors overall by a wide margin in the long term, and with a key number of 9 here, I like the value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies start Nick Pivetta here, and he's a guy who looks like a new pitcher this year. Pivetta was hurt by a very high HR rate allowed last year, but his minor league numbers were terrific. He appears to be breaking out. Pivetta hasn't just been lucky this year. His advanced statistics all look terrific. 

Trevor Williams has turned into a solid starter for the Pirates, and his ability to keep the ball down with his downward movement on his pitches has been key.

Williams has a career ERA in day games of only 2.62 (4.90 at night). Pivetta has a day ERA of 3.32 (7.02 at night). 

The under is 6-0 in Williams last 6 road starts. The under is 6-0 in Williams last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 Sunday starts. The under is 3-0-2 in the Phillies last 5 home games. The under is 3-0-1 in Pivetta's last 4 starts. The under is 5-0-3 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. A combined 27-0 angle.

Take the under.