Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star NCAA FB Totals Takedown* The Wyoming Cowboys and the New Mexico Lobos have something in common: they both have an awful defense. Wyoming hasn't been able to stop anyone all year, and New Mexico's unique pistol/option offense will be a big challenge for them. Wyoming has a decent running game, and New Mexico is terrible at stopping the run. The last two years these teams have played to a 38-31 and 36-30 final.  Usually a lot of running is good for the under, but in this case I don't think it is since both run defenses are terrible. I expect this one to get into the 60's as well. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA FB Totals TKO* Art Briles hasn't been happy with the Baylor Bears play so far this year. Baylor hasn't had the same type of killer instinct they had in the last couple years. After a week off last week, I think there's a good chance they come out ready to play here. Rice has a bad defense that is especially weak in the secondary. Baylor has all the weapons to expose that problem. Baylor scored 59 points or more seven times in 2013 and four times last year. I think they have a good chance to do it here. Baylor's defense hasn't looked good so far this year, and Rice should be score to get on the board a few times in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays meet in what I believe will be a pitching duel on Saturday afternoon. Chris Archer is becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball, and David Price has been one of the best for several years now. Archer's numbers when pitching in Toronto are truly amazing. He has a brilliant 1.66 ERA in seven career starts there. He also has an ERA almost a full run lower during the daytime in his career. David Price has a career ERA of 2.95 during the day. Price has been throwing the best he has in his career down the stretch this season. The Rays offense doesn't have anyone who has hit Price well in the past. The under is a surprising 46-30-3 in Toronto's home games this year. The under is 43-31-5 in the Rays road games this year.

The under is 5-0 in Toronto's last 5 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0 in Price's last 5 home starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Toronto. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two overall. The under is 3-0-1 in Archer's last 4 starts vs. Toronto. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Early Bird Special* The Boston College Eagles offense wasn't good at all to start the season. Now, they have to play the rest of the year without their starting quarterback. Starter Darius Wade was lost for the season. Steve Addazio has said he hasn't decided who will start on Saturday. That usually isn't a good sign. Boston College has very little talent to work with on offense overall. At the same time, Addazio's teams always play some very good defense. Northern Illinois showed how good they can be on defense last week in Columbus against Ohio State. It's hard to imagine either team getting past 20 points or so here.

The under is 5-0 in Northern Illinois' last 5 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in BC's last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the MAC. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The South Carolina Gamecocks aren't even close to the same team they were a couple years ago. The exact same thing can be said of the UCF Knights. Both of these teams have been terrible so far this year. The primary problem for both of these teams is their offense. I expect that to continue this weekend. Both of these teams have good coaches and I think they'll work hard this weekend. The problem for these two is they have a major lack of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Look for a lot of long drawn out drives that fall short of the end zone.

The under is 7-0 in the Knights last 7 following a loss. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the SEC. The under is 6-0 in S Carolina's last 6 non-conference games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 170 yards or less through the air. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Miami Dolphins offense did very little last week in Washington. In fact, it was a punt return TD that was the key play for the Dolphins in that win. Jacksonville's offense was awful last week against the Panthers. The Jaguars offensive front gave up five sacks in that game, and the Dolphins defensive line is going to have pressure on Blake Bortles all day in this one. Suh is a huge addition to this defensive line and Cameron Wake is still an elite pass rusher for Miami. Jacksonville's defense is better than a year ago. Miami lacks big playmakers on offense. The Dolphins aren't a big play team, rather they will generally have slow and methodical drives that eat up a bunch of time. I think both defenses play well in a game where I think both teams have to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. 

The under is 37-17 in Miami's last 54 road games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Miami. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The San Francisco Giants offense is a mess now. Injuries have crushed this Giants team. Hunter Pence, Joe Panik, Nori Aoki, and Brandon Belt are all out of the lineup. Jeremy Hellickson pitched well at San Francisco earlier this year. Hellickson has a career 3.19 ERA in the daytime (vs a 4.33 ERA at night). He also has a 1.16 ERA with umpire Ron Kulpa behind the plate. Tim Hudson is about to retire, and he badly wants to finish his career on a strong note. Hudson has a 3.34 daytime ERA in his career (3.56 at night). Ron Kulpa is the umpire here, and he is a major strike caller. 65% of his games have stayed under the total in his last 160 behind the plate. With a reasonably high total of 8 at a pitcher's park, there is value on the under.

The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two in San Francisco. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 vs. these two overall. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Totals Cash* The Pitt Panthers offense isn't nearly as good without Conner running it in the backfield. Tyler Boyd is the main playmaker now, but Iowa has some good shutdown corners. Pitt's defense will be much better this year with Pat Narduzzi running the show. Both of these teams take a very long time in between snaps. That means we won't see many possessions in this one, and with defenses that are strong against the run, I don't see many points here. Take the under.

*Note- the line has moved since I selected this one early in the week. I would play this for a 4 star rated play down to 48 and a 3 star play down to 46. Thank you*

*3 Star NCAA FB Hidden GEM Total* The Oregon State Beavers offense has 12 yards in the final three quarters against Michigan last weekend. Gary Andersen has very little to work with on offense. San Jose State's defense isn't great by any stretch, but they should look decent against Oregon State's offense. The Oregon State defense is bigger in the trenches than San Jose State is accustomed to playing against. San Jose State needs to be able to run the football to have any consistent success on offense. I don't see them being able to run the ball on Oregon State here.

The under is 5-0 in Oregon State's last 5. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 September games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss by 20 points or more. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA FB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego State Aztecs offense has been awful this year. Maxwell Smith hasn't worked out as quarterback, and opponents are just stacking the box to stop Donnell Pumphrey and the running game. South Alabama lost nearly their entire team from last year, and they are going to have a long season. They will still play hard though, and this SD State offense only put up 7 points against a subpar Cal defense last week. San Diego State plays at a very slow pace, which certainly helps, and as much as they run the ball, the clock will be ticking. Both of these teams have been far better on defense than offense thus far.

The under is 6-0 in San Diego State's last 6 September games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 home games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss by 20 points or more. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Total Value* The Washington Huskies are much less talented this year, but Chris Petersen's team is still solid on the defensive end. Petersen's teams always play hard for the full game, and Utah State's offense hasn't shown anything this year. They didn't even score an offensive touchdown against Southern Utah in their season opener. Last week the Utah Utes defense shut them down. On the other hand, Washington's offense is ugly and the Utah State defense is extremely good. Utah State has terrific linebackers who serve as the leaders to this unit. This one should be close and low scoring all the way. Take the under. 

*The line has moved since I selected this one Monday. I would play this for 4 stars down to 45 and for 3 stars down to 43. Thank you.*

*6 Star Rated TOP Total of the YEAR* The Indiana Hoosiers and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are very similar teams. They both like to get off as many snaps as possible, and they both love to air it out early and often. Additionally, both of these teams play next to zero defense. These teams are both going to rank in the top 15 or 20 in the country in terms of pace, and they'll definitely both rank near the bottom of the country in defense. Brandon Doughty is the one of the best under the radar quarterbacks in football, and Indiana can't get any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. He'll have time to pick apart this secondary.

Western Kentucky scored 44.4 points per game last week. Western Kentucky allowed 40 points per game last week. Indiana has allowed 33 points per game or more in each of the last five seasons. The Hoosiers had no quarterback last year so their offensive numbers weren't good, but with Nate Sudfeld back under center this team is much better on offense. 

Huge play for me on this one.. I won't have a totals release stronger than this all year. Take the over big! 6* TOP Total of the Year *Please note- My line on this total is 85 points. I like this for a 6 star rated play all the way up to 75 points. Thank you*

*4 Star Ga Tech/Notre Dame Total* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets run the football on nearly every down. Notre Dame will likely be running the football more often than normal with a new quarterback under center. The clock should be ticking almost the entire game here. Georgia Tech always takes their time between snaps, and Notre Dame won't play fast with a new quarterback either. This Notre Dame defense should be very good against the run this year with an elite defensive line. Look for long drives that eat up the clock. Take the under. 

*Note- The line has moved since early in the week when I selected this play. I would play this for 4 stars down to 55.5. I would play this for 3 stars down to 54. Thank you*

*4 Star NCAA FB Under Radar Total* The Eastern Michigan Eagles are giving up an eye popping 6.66 yards per carry so far this year. The Ball State Cardinals have the single best offensive line in the Mid American Conference. Ball State is going to run for a bunch of yards in this game. Ball State's defense was torched by VMI in their season opener for more than 500 yards, so they have lots of defensive issues as well. In the past five years, these teams have played to the following final scores against each other: 41-38, 33-31, 37-26, 51-20, and last year 45-30. 

Eastern Michigan's backup quarterback looked better than their starter in last week's huge win at Wyoming. Don't be surprised if Ball State runs for 300 yards or more here. A lot of scoring. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons and Memphis Tigers play football the same way. They both play uptempo and look to keep the defenses off guard. I expect both defenses to be winded and struggling late in the game here. Memphis was a good defense in recent years, but they returned only 3 starters on defense from last year. Bowling Green's defense has been awful since Dino Babers arrived at the school. Matt Johnson and Paxton Lynch are underrated quarterbacks who will have big days here. Take the over.

*Note- the line has moved significantly since I played this on Monday.My number in this one is 84 points. I would play for 5 stars to 77 points and for 4 stars to 79.*

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Yankees offense has been up and down lately, and being without Mark Teixeira certainly hurts the team a lot. New York is up against a very good pitcher in Jake Odorizzi here. Odorizzi has a 2.61 ERA at home this year, and in his young career, he has been great when pitching in Tampa. Adam Warren makes the spot start for the Yankees. Warren has been good lately, but he won't pitch too deep into the game. That's not necessarily a bad thing for the under though, since the Yankees clearly have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here. The under is 95-61 in his last 156 games behind the plate, and he is a massive strike caller, so that's a big help. Look for a low scoring contest.

The under is 7-0 in the Yankees last 7 games on turf. The under is 5-0 in Warren's last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Tampa Bay. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Eagles/Falcons Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Eagles fast pace offense is well documented. Atlanta's defense will improve in their new scheme, but it is going to take time. Philadelphia's offense is going to be a really tough test in week one. Bradford looked great in the Chip Kelly system in the preseason, and should do well against a questionable Atlanta secondary. The Eagles defense wasn't very good last year, and I don't think they'll be very good this year either. Matt Ryan has been amazing in the dome in his career, and I think he has a big game here. He has some new weapons, and I think Tevin Coleman will prove to be a very good player in this system. 

The over is 6-1 in the Falcons last 7 September games. The over is 4-0 in the Eagles last 4 Monday night games. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays have hit left handed pitching much better than right handed pitching this year. Tampa Bay has a .307 On Base Percentage against righties, but an impressive .328 OBP against lefties. Boston has absolutely destroyed lefties in the past month. For the year overall, they have a .331 OBP against lefties. Rich Hill takes the mound for his first big league start this year. He's never been particularly successful in the big leagues. Drew Smyly is a decent pitcher, but he's up against a Boston team that has been absolutely raking of late. Both bullpens are awful right now, so there's plenty of potential for runs late in the game.

The over is 15-5-1 in the Red Sox last 21 games vs. a lefty. The over is 9-3 in the Rays last 12 home games. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday Best Bet* The Cleveland Browns offense is laughable, but their defense is very solid. You could say the same thing about the New York Jets. New York's defense got a lot better in the offseason. The Jets front seven was tremendous last year, but the secondary was a problem. What did the Jets do in the offseason? They grabbed Revis and Cromartie to give themselves a good secondary again. The Jets defensive front is still one of the best in the league. How is Cleveland going to do anything on offense here? The weather looks to be less than ideal for this game as well. On the other side, the Jets have more questions than ever on the offensive side of the ball. Look for both teams to struggle to punch the ball into the end zone here. Low scoring all the way. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Late Night BAILOUT* I took the under in the FIU vs. UCF game last Thursday night and watched the entire game. The under cashed and UCF's offense looked absolutely awful. The Knights are now up against a much better Stanford defense. Stanford also comes into this game ticked off after being upset by Northwestern. The Cardinal are a team that slows the game down and runs the football a lot. UCF is the same way. Both of these teams have a bunch of question marks on offense, but they are very good defensively. 

The under is 5-0 in UCF's last 5 after a loss. The under is 4-0 in Stanford's last 4 during September. The under is 17-5 in Stanford's last 22 overall. The under is 27-8-1 in UCF's last 36 September games. A 53-13 trend. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total Takedown* The Temple Owls had one game vs. an FBS foe go over this posted total last year. The Owls defense totally dominated Penn State last weekend. Cincinnati will have more success, but they shouldn't score a bunch like they will against most teams this year. Temple's offense still has a lot of question marks and they should run the ball often and use up the clock. The line move up made this one go into the play range for me. A game with a posted total of 55 where Temple is involved is almost always going to be an under bet for me. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play of the Week* The Memphis Tigers are a different team than they have been in the past. Justin Fuente's team has been all about defense in the past, but they return only three starters on defense this year. Memphis does have a veteran offense though, and with superb quarterback play from Paxton Lynch, I expect Memphis' offense to be very good. The Tigers are pushing the pace a lot more this year. Kansas is a terrible team overall, but David Beaty is working on getting this team to play much faster. The Jayhawks are going to give up a bunch of points against everyone this year. They allowed 41 in a loss to South Dakota State last week. Both teams are playing fast and both teams have question marks on the defensive side. I've had this game circled since before the season started. Take the over big! CFB TOP Play of the Week. *Note- This one has moved a lot since I first posted it, but I did make this total 68, so I still like it as a 5 star play up to 63*

*3 Star NCAA FB Totals TKO* The Wyoming Cowboys lost 24-13 at home against North Dakota in week one. It will be a long year for the Cowboys. Eastern Michigan was beaten in week one by Old Dominion. Neither of these teams are going to be good this year, and both have tons of question marks on offense. Eastern Michigan's best player is their quarterback, and he is injured and questionable to play here. Even if he plays, I like this one, but I like it even better if he doesn't. Both teams play very slowly and run the football a bunch. This should be an ugly game that stays under the total. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The Washington State offense is known for their ability to throw it against anyone. Rutgers is now without five of their top six players in the secondary after suspensions and injuries. Falk is expected to start here at quarterback for Washington State and I expect him to have a field day against this Rutgers secondary. The Cougars will push the tempo as they always do. Rutgers should have no trouble moving the football here either. Washington State's defense is one of the very worst in the nation. Rutgers put up 41 points against them last year (a 41-38 final in Pullman, Washington). I think this one has a very good chance to top the 70 point mark, which is why I like this total so much. Take the over big! 

*3 Star NCAA FB Total Value* The Clemson Tigers had a dominant defense last year. They returned only three starters this year on defense, and this unit is way down from last season. On the offensive side, Clemson should be better this year with a healthy Deshaun Watson under center. Watson has a ton of talent and the Tigers will run a fast paced offense all year. Appalachian State has some playmakers on offense and I think they can move the football in this one. Clemson will let up late as they have a big game coming up on Thursday night and they'll want to rest. That should allow Appalachian State to score more late. I think this one gets into the 60's. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Opening Night KNOCKOUT* It's Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. These are definitely two of the best quarterbacks in the game, and both of these guys should be ready to go. The Patriots have had all kinds of controversies around them in the offseason. If it were another team, I might be concerned about where there mind would be, but New England has been here before and they have shown they are great at focusing on the task at hand. In my estimation, both of these defenses got a little weaker in the offseason. New England lost Wilfork and Revis, so they certainly are weaker. Pittsburgh lost a really good defensive coordinator in Lebeau. Both quarterbacks should have plenty of open receivers. The over is 32-13 in the Patriots last 45 home games. Look for plenty of offensive fireworks in the NFL season opener. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox have been absolutely raking at home in the past couple months. This young Red Sox lineup has been hotter than any offense in baseball other than the team they are playing against in this one. Drew Hutchison starts for Toronto here, and he hasn't been good at all against the Red Sox in the past. Hutchison has a career road ERA of 5.88. He has a ridiculous 9.00 ERA in four starts at Fenway Park. Joe Kelly has been better of late, but I don't trust him against the best offense in baseball. Kelly has a 6.46 ERA in four career starts vs. the Blue Jays. The Red Sox bullpen is a mess now as well, so after Kelly leaves things won't get better. The umpire here is Paul Schrieber, and he is well known for being a hitter-friendly umpire. He won't help the pitchers at all in this one. 

The over is 5-0 in the Jays last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 9-0 in Hutchison's last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 7-0 in Kelly's last 7 home starts. The over is 4-0 in Hutchison's 4 career starts at Fenway. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Ubaldo Jimenez has a WHIP of 1.88 in his last three games. Jimenez continues to walk a bunch of batters and constantly work with people on base. That usually doesn't work against very good offenses like the Yankees. C.C. Sabathia has struggled all year, especially when pitching at home. The Orioles have good career numbers vs. Sabathia, and the Yankees have good career numbers vs. Jimenez. The home plate umpire here is Paul Emmel. The over is 23-4 in Emmel's last 27 games involving the Yankees. Emmel has one of the smallest strike zones in the majors. 

The over is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 on grass. The over is 3-0-1 in Jimenez's last 4 Wednesday starts. The over is 5-0-2 in his last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL East. The over is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in Sabathia's last 4 after pitching less than 4 innings in his last outing. The over is 7-0 in Emmel's last 7 Wednesday games behind the plate in New York. A 32-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Mets and Washington Nationals meet in a very big game for both teams tonight in Washington. Matt Harvey and Jordan Zimmermann take the mound here. Harvey has been in the news with some questions about whether he would pitch in the playoffs. I think Harvey comes out here and dominates as he has done in the past against Washington. In 8 career starts vs. the Nationals, Harvey has a 0.99 ERA. Jordan Zimmermann has been great at home this year, and he is pitching well of late. I think he will shut down the Mets offense as well. This looks like a pitcher's duel to me. Harvey has allowed one run or less in 5 of his last 6 games. Zimmermann has a 2.4 ERA at home this year. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The St. Louis Cardinals have been a terrific under team all year. St. Louis has a great starting staff and a very good bullpen. John Lackey is very underrated at this stage of his career. He has been lights out when pitching at Busch Stadium. Pittsburgh's Gerrit Cole is a pitcher I really like, and he's facing a Cardinals lineup that is without several of their best hitters. I see this one as a 2-1 or 3-2 type of pitching duel. Take the under in this Sunday night contest. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers have had some really high scoring games this year. These are two teams with questionable rotations and bullpens that are taxed right now. The ball is really flying well at Great American Ballpark with a temperature around 90 degrees in Cincinnati. We have a favorable umpire for this one and two pitchers with plenty of blowup potential. I was surprised to be able to get this price in this matchup.

The over is 7-0-1 in the Brewers last 8 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a righty. The over is 7-0-2 in their last 9 following a win. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NL Central. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 road games with a total of 7 to 8.5. The over is 4-0-1 in Jimmy Nelson's last 5 starts vs. the NL Central. The over is 8-0 in the Reds last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 following a loss. A 52-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers are good against right handed pitching and Jered Weaver isn't even close to the pitcher he used to be. Weaver is out there throwing 83 mph fastballs on a consistent basis, and it's tough to get big league hitters out doing that unless you are spotting the ball perfectly every single time. Texas' offense has been hot of late, and I see them getting several in this one. The Angels offense has been a disappointment this year, but their career numbers against Derek Holland are terrific. In 119 and 1/3 career innings against the Angels, Holland has a 5.88 ERA. Texas' bullpen is arguably the worst in all of baseball. There should be plenty of scoring chances in this one. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the Rangers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The over is 5-0-1 in Holland's last 6 Saturday starts. The over is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 with a total of 7 to 8.5. The over is 4-0 in Holland's last 4 starts vs. the Angels. The over is 5-0 in home plate umpire Marty Foster's last 5 games behind the plate in a game involving the Angels. A 33-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA FB Week One TOP Rated Play* The Wisconsin Badgers and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in Arlington for a week one huge clash. Wisconsin was thumped at the end of last year by Ohio State and then turned things around to upset Auburn in their bowl game. Alabama came up just a bit short against Ohio State in the playoffs. These are two teams who have a great tradition, and this game should be a good one.

When I look at these two teams, I see two teams who likely won't be able to throw the football much at all. Wisconsin won't even try to throw it much with a poor QB in Joel Stave and very few good receiving options. Alabama's QB situation isn't good at the start of the year either. Both teams have a strong offensive line though and good running backs. While Melvin Gordon Jr. is gone, Corey Clement will be good for the Badgers. Henry and Drake are two good runners for Alabama. 

Paul Chryst is the new top man at Wisconsin, and he will want to run it even more often than Gary Andersen did. Alabama has ranked in the bottom few teams in terms of pace of play for the last few years, and I think Wisconsin will this year as well. 

What does all this mean? It means that the clock will be running a lot thanks to constant running of the football. Neither team will be looking to snap it quickly at all. Both teams also have good defensive coordinators who know the opposition will be looking to run it all the time. I think we see a lot of long drives eating up a bunch of clock. This total is several points too high. I expect it to drop, which is why I'm taking this one early. Take the under big!  

*Note- This line has moved since I took this play more than a week ago. I would play for 5 stars down to 49 points and for 4 stars down to 48 points. Thank you*

*4 Star NCAA FB Under Radar Total* The Oklahoma Sooners have changed their system in the offseason. No more traditional looks on offense for them. Oklahoma is now going to run the Air Raid offense and hurry to the line. Baker Mayfield should be a great fit since he has experience in the Air Raid from Texas Tech. Akron's defense will do well against MAC opponents, but they'll be overmatched by Oklahoma's skill here. The Sooners should be able to put up a big score. Akron's offense should be much improved this year, and with the amount of chances I expect them to get and the fact that this score should be pretty lopsided, I think Akron puts up plenty to get us past this total. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Auburn/Louisville Totals CRUSHER* The Auburn Tigers defense is going to be much better under the leadership of Will Muschamp this year. Muschamp might not have worked out well as a head coach, but he's proven he is a great defensive mind. Louisville's defense will be much stronger than it was a year ago. Devante Fields is now a Cardinal and he immediately becomes the team's best player (he was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year at TCU). Louisville likely slows this game down a bit too, because I doubt they want a shootout with Auburn. The Tigers offense will be good in the long run, but it should take some time to get things squared away with new guys at the skill positions. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Old Dominion Monarchs lost their star quarterback, and they are undergoing some big changes this year. Old Dominion's coach has gone on the record to say they will be slowing the pace down bigtime this year. In the past, ODU has been an uptempo offenses that gets as many possessions as possible. Eastern Michigan's defense isn't good, but ODU is working in a new starter at QB, and they'll look to eat up the play clock every time. ODU's defense was terrible last year, but I expect them to be much better this year and Eastern Michigan's offense is really bad. The slower tempo and new skill position players on offense should keep this one lower scoring than expected. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Opening Night KNOCKOUT* The FIU Golden Panthers improved a lot last year. Sure, they were only 4-8, but they went 1-11 in the previous year. Ron Turner is known as a good defensive mind, and FIU was much better defensively last year. They allowed 24.8 points per game vs. allowing 37 points per game the previous year. FIU's offense isn't very good, and they rely very heavily on being able to run the ball. While UCF has all sorts of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, their defense will be very good again this year. With UCF and FIU both running the ball a lot, the clock should tick away quickly. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers have taken the first two games of this series, and in last night's game we did see the pitching duel I expected. I took the under in that one, and I'm taking the under again here. Mike Leake certainly isn't the pitcher Madison Bumgarner is, but Leake is a solid guy who will be facing a Dodgers lineup that is less than 100 percent. The San Francisco Giants lineup is way less than 100 percent healthy. San Francisco really misses Hunter Pence and Joe Panik, and Brandon Crawford is questionable for this game as well. Clayton Kershaw is nothing short of awesome. Kershaw has allowed more than one run in only one of his last ten starts. That's a ridiculous run, and the under is 20-5-2 in his last 27 starts vs. the Giants. Muchlinksi is behind the plate here and he's a solid under umpire.

The under is 3-0-2 in the Giants last 5 Wednesday games. The under is 5-0 in the Dodgers last 5 games with a total of 6.5 or lower. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after their opponent allows 2 runs or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 as a home favorite of -201 or higher. The under is 7-0 in Kershaw's last 7 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts as a favorite of -201 or higher. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts with a total of 6.5 or lower. A 43-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Kansas City Royals have the second best team batting average in baseball. The Detroit Tigers have the best team batting average in baseball. Two of the best offenses do battle in Kansas City on Wednesday night. Randy Wolf starts for the Tigers and I really don't know how he made it back to the big leagues. Wolf wasn't any good in the majors a couple years ago, but the Tigers badly needed a started and have given him a shot. Wolf has been pretty good in his first couple starts, but I don't think that continues. Yordano Ventura has been good lately, but he has a career 4.56 ERA against Detroit. Herrera is out for KC right now and that makes their bullpen a little less dominant. The Tigers bullpen isn't any good. Too low of a number. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Dodgers in extra innings last night. Madison Bumgarner is the ultimate stopper, and he has been amazing against the Dodgers in the past. Bumgarner needs to work deep into this game because the Giants used up their bullpen a lot last night. Having him around for even longer is a good thing for the under. Bumgarner has a career ERA of 2.08 at Dodger Stadium. Greinke has been amazing all season, and he's even better at home. Greinke has an ERA of 1.42 at home this year. There won't be many baserunners in this game. The under is 6-1-1 in Bumgarner's last 8 starts at Los Angeles. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cleveland Indians bats have woken up. It's helped that they have started to get healthy, and Carlos Santana is hitting the ball much better of late. Toronto's offense is the best in the league, and it isn't even close. Cody Anderson had a nice first few starts in the big leagues, but he has been hit around hard since then. Toronto was quieted by Danny Salazar last night. Salazar is an elite young pitcher, but Anderson isn't even close to the same quality. Toronto will get back on track offensively here. Miguel Estrada has been extremely fortunate with batted ball luck and his strand rate this year. I think he is overrated at this point. Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire here and he is known for his small strike zone. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays have the 6th best offense in the majors in the past month. Kansas City has a steady offense that is underrated by most. Nate Karns has struggled at home this year. Danny Duffy has struggled with his control, and that has led to a disappointing season for him. With a total this low, I like the value on the over.

The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 after a loss. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 3-0-1 in Karns' last 4 home starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the AL Central. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Mark Buehrle has some awful career numbers against the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are the second best offense in the league, and they are particularly good against lefties. Toronto is the best offense in the league, and Alfredo Simon has allowed at least 5 runs in 5 of his last 10 starts. This Blue Jays offense is raking right now, and Simon has been terrible. Plenty of run scoring in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies offense has been surprisingly good for the past month. The Phillies bullpen is really worn out, and they aren't very good to start with. Adam Morgan is a youngster who doesn't have impressive stuff. His peripheral suggest he has been fortunate to not have worse numbers so far this season. Rea is a youngster who comes with little fanfare for the Padres as well. These are two guys who haven't shown much. Andy Fletcher is a solid over umpire with a very small strike zone. The weather will help with an 80 degree night and wind blowing out. 

The over is 3-0-1 in the Padres last 4 as a road favorite. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series. The over is 4-0-1 in the Phillies last 5 overall. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. the NL West. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 as an underdog. The over is 5-0-1 in Morgan's last 6 home starts. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 on 4 days of rest. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 home starts with a total of 8.5 or lower. A 50-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Cincinnati Reds lineup isn't producing of late. Outside of Joey Votto, the Reds haven't been able to count on anyone. Milwaukee's lineup isn't even close to what it was before the trade deadline. Raisel Iglesias and Taylor Jungmann are two very talented youngsters. Iglesias has an ERA under 2 in the month of August. Jungmann has an ERA under 2 at home this year. Jungmann also gave up only one run in 8 innings pitched in his outing vs. the Reds in July. With both lineups looking like a mess right now, I think both starters can work deep into this game and pitch well. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers arguably have the two best offenses in baseball. With Miguel Cabrera back, the Tigers offense is once again dangerous. Toronto's numbers against left handed pitching this year are scary good. They have a .357 OBP and average 5.66 runs per game against left handed pitching. Matt Boyd has struggled so far in his career and this is a tough spot for him against his former team. R.A. Dickey hasn't been good lately, and the Tigers have crushed him in the past. Overall, the current Tigers lineup has an amazing .346 average and a .424 OBP against him.

The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 as a road underdog. The over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a left handed starter. The over is 6-0 in Dickey's last 6 as a favorite of -150 to -200. The over is 4-0 in Dickey's last 4 starts vs. the Tigers. A 26-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Rays are actually pretty similar teams right now. They both have overachieved compared to their real talent levels this year. Both of them struggle badly against right handed pitching, but they are both much better at hitting left handed pitching. How much better? Minnesota has an OBP of .297 against righties and .311 against lefties. Tampa Bay has an OBP of .302 against righties and .327 against lefties. Drew Smyly and Tommy Milone aren't bad pitchers, but neither of them pitch particularly deep into the game, and they are both lefties. Both of these bullpens are bad right now, and I see the potential for scoring in the late innings. Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire here and he is a solid over umpire. 

The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 on turf. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games with a total of 7 to 8.5. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 games between these two teams in Tampa Bay. The over is 5-0 in Emmel's last 5 Thursday games behind the plate. A 45-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Cincinnati Reds have been much better at hitting left handed pitchers this year than righties. The Reds have a solid .318 on base percentage against lefties. The Dodgers started the year slowly against lefties, but they have been hitting them really well of late. Los Angeles has a very good .337 OBP against lefties this year. Holmberg hasn't been good at all, and I don't see him turning it around against this good offense. Anderson has been shaky in his last few starts. The Dodgers pen has been bad of late and the Reds pen has been bad all year long. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Marlins have hit left handed pitching well all year. They can't hit right handers, but they are 7th in the majors at hitting lefties. Jeff Locke has some ridiculous home/away splits. He's really good at home and really bad on the road. Chris Narveson was bad in the minors and I see no reason to believe he'll be good in the majors. The Pirates have 6 homers against him in only 58 total at bats. Pittsburgh's offense should bounce back from a poor outing on Tuesday. The over is 14-4-2 in Locke's last 20 road starts. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Mets offense is absolutely on fire right now. Jerad Eickhoff had a really good first outing against Miami, but this Mets offense is far tougher than the Marlins offense is to get through. Eickhoff isn't necessarily a bad pitcher, but he'll definitely have some speed bumps. Bartolo Colon has been bad lately. Colon doesn't have the same kind of stuff he's had in the past, and at 42 years old his career is close to an end. The Phillies offense has been surprisingly good in the past few weeks. The ball flies well in Philly this time of the year and both bullpens have struggled in recent weeks.

The over is 6-0 in the Mets last 6 with a total of 7 to 8.5. The over is 4-0 in Colon's last 4 road starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a road favorite. The over is 5-0 in the Phillies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more. The over is 6-0 in Colon's last 6 starts vs. the Phillies. A 31-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Miami Marlins offense went through a brief period where they were crushing the ball. Now, they are back to reality. Without Stanton this offense isn't any good. Charlie Morton is a streaky pitcher and he threw a shutout last outing. Brad Hand has been good at home this year, and he is starting to show some promise for the Marlins. Both of these teams have terrific bullpens. Brian O'Nora is behind the plate in this contest and he is definitely a strike caller. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Colorado Rockies and Atlanta Braves have two of the worst bullpens in baseball. I expect we'll see a lot of both bullpens here, and that's the biggest reason I like the over. Chad Bettis should be on a pitch count in his first start back from an elbow injury. Mike Foltynewicz hasn't shown the ability to pitch deep into games thanks to his wildness. Foltynewicz has given up at least 6 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. He has an ERA of over 6 this season. The Braves offense is much better at home and they have been a solid over play at Turner Field. The Rockies might be without Carlos Gonzalez here, but the lineup is fairly deep. 

The over is 4-0 in Atlanta's last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The over is 5-0 in Foltynewicz's last 5 starts on 4 days rest. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 starts as a home underdog. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the NL West. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts after Atlanta scores 5 runs or more. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. A 28-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Atlanta Braves have one of the worst offenses in baseball against left handed pitching. Colorado's offense is middle of the pack in weighted on base average in the past month. They go to a much more pitcher friendly park here in Atlanta. Julio Teheran has been much better in the last month. Teheran has been great at home all year. He has a 2.44 ERA at home this season. Jorge De La Rosa is throwing the ball better right now than he has at any point throughout the season. With the move up to 7.5, there is value in the under. The wind will be blowing in and there is no significant warmth in Atlanta. Take the under here. 

*4 Star EPIC 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies crush right handed pitching. The Colorado Rockies also have a bad starting rotation and a really bad bullpen. The Mets have a good rotation, but making a spot start here is Logan Verrett. It's a really tough spot for the young kid who has below average stuff. Verrett has almost no big league experience, and he hasn't been that great in the minors. I don't expect him to go to Coors Field and find success. Day games at Coors Field are well known for their high scoring tendencies. David Hale isn't a good pitcher at all. He has an ERA above 6 and this Mets offense has been on a great run in the first couple games. They should keep it going against him in this one. The number is high for a very good reason.

The over is 6-0 in the Mets last 6 games. The over is 10-0-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 6-0 in the Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 games after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite. The over is 3-0-1 in Hale's last 4 starts when the Rockies opponent scores 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 as a home underdog. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts overall. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts. A 53-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Saturday's Best Bet* The Los Angeles Angels offense has been much better against right handed pitching as compared to lefties this year. Marco Estrada has been fortunate this year, and I see him getting tripped up in this one. Heaney is a decent lefty, but the Blue Jays rake against left handed pitching. They destroyed the ball against a pretty good lefty last night, and I think they'll hit it well again here. A total of just 8 is too low for these two teams on a warm evening in Los Angeles. I expect at least one of these two offenses to have a big day. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies and New York Mets had an exciting high scoring affair on Friday night. The ball was leaving the yard at Coors early and often on Friday. I look for a lot more scoring on Saturday night. Jon Niese has struggled in his three starts at Coors in his career (6.75 ERA). Chris Rusin is coming off a great outing, but he isn't a good big league pitcher. The Mets are solid against lefties of late, and Cespedes has been huge for this lineup. Both bullpens have been bad recently, and there should be a bunch of scoring opportunities for both teams.

The over is 5-0 in the Mets last 5. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 as a road favorite. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after giving up 5 runs or more last game. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 on grass. The over is 3-0-1 in Niese's last 4 starts with a total of 9 or higher. A 23-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Pirates shut out the San Francisco Giants in game one of this series last night. It's a key series for both teams. Madison Bumgarner starts for San Francisco in this one. There isn't a better big game pitcher in baseball than Bumgarner. The Giants offense really misses Hunter Pence. Jeff Locke has been very good at home throughout his career. San Francisco is better against right handed pitching, so Locke has a good chance of keeping the Giants under control. Bumgarner is throwing it better than he ever has in the regular season, and the Pirates offense has been inconsistent at best of late. 

The under is 4-0-1 in the Giants last 5. The under is 7-0-1 in the Giants last 8 with a total of 7 to 8.5. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. the NL Central. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0-2 in Bumgarner's last 6. The under is 3-0-1 in the Giants last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. A 30-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Collin McHugh has been throwing the ball a lot better lately. McHugh has regained control of his offspeed pitches to keep batters off balance. Tampa Bay's offense has been bad for most of the year, and after a brief hot stretch early this month, they have come back down to earth in the last few games. Chris Archer is one of the best pitchers in baseball and he should bounce back nicely from his poor outing in Texas last time out. The Astros have a lot of free swingers, and I think Archer racks up the strikeouts in this one.

The under is 8-1 in McHugh's last 9 starts. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the AL East. A 19-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers offenses have been on fire lately. Detroit scored 25 runs in two games in Chicago against the Cubs. The Rangers have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last nine games. Martin Perez isn't a bad lefty, but the Tigers are second in the league in hitting lefties and with Cabrera back this lineup is very good. Alfredo Simon has been a total gas can in the last couple months. He is fully capable of giving up a huge inning at any time. Plenty of run scoring opportunities for both teams throughout this game.

The over is 4-0 in Texas' last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games with a total of 9 or higher. The over is 5-0 in Perez's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 7-0-1 in Simon's last 8 when the Tigers opponent scores 5 runs or more the previous game. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams in Detroit. A 24-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jacob Degrom has been throwing the ball extremely well all year, but the stretch he has been on since May is extraordinary. In his last 15 starts, Degrom has allowed more than 2 runs only two times. He has allowed more than 3 runs only once. He is absolutely locked in right now. He is a serious contender for the NL Cy Young award. Kevin Gausman has been up and down in his career, but Gausman has great stuff and he has been much better at home than on the road. Gausman has a 3.38 career home ERA, and his ERA at home this season is just 1.50. The Mets offense has improved lately, but they still aren't good. These are two good defensive teams with good bullpens. 

The under is 5-0 in the Mets last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 interleague games as an underdog. The under is 3-0-2 in Gausman's last 5 home starts with a total of 8.5 or lower. The under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 starts when the Orioles gave up 2 runs or less last game. The under is 3-0-2 in his last 5 home starts overall. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers meet on Saturday night. Justin Verlander starts for the Tigers. In four of his last six starts, Verlander has allowed one earned run or less. While I'm still cautious about him, there have been some encouraging signs. Collin McHugh has been throwing the ball better of late, and he is due for some better luck. Opponents have had a lot of batted ball luck against him this year, and that should even out over time. The biggest reason for this pick though was who is behind the plate. Bill Miller is my single favorite under umpire in baseball. He routinely has a massive strike zone, and he'll help these pitchers out.

The under is 4-0 in Houston's last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 6-0 in McHugh's last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts after the team scored 5 runs or more last game. The under is 7-1 in his last 8 games. The under is 4-0 in Miller's last 4 Saturday games behind the plate. A 25-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Atlanta Braves have been terrible against left handed pitching all year. Robbie Ray has had a nice season for the Diamondbacks. Julio Teheran has been very good at home this year. Teheran started the year really badly and he didn't find his form until recently, but he has quality stuff and should have a nice career. I expected a lower total in this one, and I'm glad to take the under at this level. 

The under is 7-0 in the Diamondbacks last 7 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 4-0 in Ray's last 4 starts on 5 days rest. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 road starts. The under is 8-0-3 in the Braves last 11 games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0-2 in the Braves last 6 home games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in Teheran's last 4 home starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. The under is 4-0 in Teheran's last 4 starts vs. the DBacks. A 34-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Gerrit Cole vs. Michael Wacha is quite a pitching matchup. Over his career, Wacha has been much better when pitching at home, and he'll be at home in this one. Cole has really come on this season, and he has turned into one of the best pitchers in baseball. Ron Kulpa is behind the plate here and the under is a whopping 90-58 in his last 148 games behind the plate. Kulpa's massive strike zone is going to help both of these young pitchers. I look for a lot of punch outs throughout this game. A pitcher's duel as both guys go deep into the game. 

The under is 6-1-1 in Cole's last 8 road starts. The under is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 during game 2 of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 games between these two in St. Louis. A 16-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers meet on Tuesday night. Minnesota is sliding quickly as expected. The Twins simply were never as good as their record looked earlier this year. Minnesota has overachieved in a big way. Texas is trying to make a push in the Wild Card standings. Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Gibson have both been beaten up pretty badly in recent outings. These are two pitchers who are inconsistent and can be hit hard and give up runs in bunches. Also important here is both bullpens rank in the bottom five in the majors. This is the type of game where it wouldn't surprise me to see a lot of runs scored late in the game. 

The over is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less. The over is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 5 runs or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed pitcher. A 21-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago White Sox offense has been bad most of the year. They got red hot for a two or three week period and now they are starting to settle back into their normal range. The Angels offense ranks 21st in the majors in the past month. Chris Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has been torched in his last two starts, but I think there is a good chance he'll bounce back here. The Angels have a combined batting average of .093 as a team against him. Los Angeles starts Matt Shoemaker, and he has been dealing of late. Shoemaker hasn't allowed a run in any of his last three starts! He's gone 19 innings in a row without giving up a run. 

The under is 5-0-1 in Shoemaker's last 6 starts. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs. the AL Central. The under is 7-0 in the White Sox last 7 vs. the AL West. The under is 6-0 in Sale's last 6 home starts with a total of 7 or higher. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts during game one of a series. A 32-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* I generally look for spots to play unders on get away days in Major League Baseball. Here is one of those spots. Vic Carapazza is behind the plate here, and he has one of the biggest strike zones in the majors. Anthony DeSclafani is a pretty good young pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds. DeSclafani has been dealing in his last few outings. All year long he has thrown much better on the road than at home as well. Patrick Corbin is starting to throw the ball better of late outside of his last outing against Washington. The Reds offense has been slumping in a big way of late.

The under is 9-0 in the Reds last 9 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games as an underdog. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 as a road underdog. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games vs. a lefty. The under is 7-0 in Arizona's last 7 games as a home favorite. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NL Central. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 as a -110 to -150 favorite. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a righty. A 61-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Oakland A's offense is a mess. Ben Zobrist is badly missed in the middle of the order. The bottom of the order is among the worst in baseball. Houston has improved offensively, but the bottom of their order is still weak as well. Mike Fiers is a guy with a really deceptive delivery. Oakland hasn't seen him before, and I think that works to his advantage here. Chris Bassitt is a guy I've liked for a while now. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a single game this year. 

The under is 5-0 in the Astros last 5 as an underdog. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 as a road underdog. The under is 4-0 in Oakland's last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 4 of a series. The under is 4-0 in Bassitt's last 4 home starts. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dallas Keuchel has been great all year long, and the Oakland A's offense is really bad now. Oakland traded away Ben Zobrist, who was their best hitter. Oakland is also much worse against left handed pitching, and Keuchel is one of the best lefties in the league. Sonny Gray is an amazing pitcher as well. Gray has been on quite a roll all year long. The Astros have a better lineup now, but they still strikeout a lot. Gray has the ability to rack up the punch outs here. 

The under is 5-0 in the A's last 5 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The under is 5-0 in Gray's last 5 following a quality start. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 5-0-2 in Gray's last 7 starts overall. The under is 5-0 in Gray's last 5 starts with a total of 6.5 or lower. The under is 3-0-2 in Gray's last 5 games vs. a team with a team with a winning record. A 26-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Julio Teheran is a better pitcher than he showed early this year. He has been rounding into form of late and he has been sharp at home all year long. Teheran also has a 2.54 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Marlins. Miami's lineup is one of the worst in the majors. Atlanta's lineup isn't much, if any, better than the Marlins. Jose Fernandez is absolutely tremendous. Fernandez hasn't missed a beat after coming back from injury. He's absolutely one of the top five pitchers in the game today. Fernandez has been brilliant against the Braves in the past. He has a career 0.93 ERA against Atlanta. Look for a pitcher's duel here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Chicago White Sox offense has been much better of late, but I believe their amazing offensive output isn't going to continue much longer. Who's the type of pitcher who can stop them? Chris Archer is definitely the type of guy. Archer has actually been better away from home in his career. He pitches deep into the game and will take advantage of the White Sox aggressiveness at the plate. Chris Sale is coming off a rare bad start, and I fully expect him to bounce back in a huge way. Sale is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. The Rays lineup isn't very good. Look for both starters to go deep into this game. 

The under is 4-0 in Archer's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Sale's last 4 starts. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts following a team loss. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more. A 25-0 angle. Take the under.  

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers offense was rolling along really nicely a few weeks ago. Since then, the Brewers lineup has been shredded apart at the trade deadline. Gone are Carlos Gomez, Gerrardo Parra, and Aramis Ramirez. These were three of the team's best hitters, and Milwaukee absolutely has been much worse offensively since then. Tyson Ross is a really good pitcher, and he's been throwing the ball extremely well. I don't see Milwaukee getting going against a pitcher like Ross. Wily Peralta has an ERA almost one full run better in the second half of the season compared to the first. San Diego's offense ranks in the bottom third of the majors in every offensive category this year.

The under is 5-0-1 in the Padres last 6 vs. the NL Central. The under is 7-0-2 in the Brewers last 9 games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games. The under is 7-0-1 in their last 8 games against a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or lower. The under is 6-0-2 in their last 8 following a loss. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 vs. the NL West. The under is 6-0-2 in their last 8 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 6-0-2 in their last 8 vs. an underdog. The under is 6-0 in Peralta's last 6 starts with a 5 days of rest. A 51-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Sonny Gray is absolutely one of the best pitchers in baseball. The Cleveland Indians offense hasn't been able to get anything going against anyone in the last few weeks, and it's hard to imagine them getting things going against Gray. He has great command of all his pitches. Trevor Bauer is an up and down guy, but he's been much better on the road. The A's lineup is a lot weaker without Zobrist in the middle of the order. Phil Cuzzi is the umpire here, and Cuzzi has one of the biggest strike zones in all of baseball. Look for both starting pitcher's to work deep into the game.

The under is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in Bauer's last 6 on 4 days of rest. The under is 8-0-1 in his last 9 road starts. The under is 7-0-1 in his last 8 as an underdog. The under is 5-0-1 in his last 6 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. The under is 4-0 in the A's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0-2 in the A's last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games with a total set at 7 runs or higher. The under is 4-0-2 in Gray's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 following a quality start. A 50-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Chicago White Sox offense has come on in a huge way in the last two weeks. This was an offense that was the worst in baseball for much of the season. Alexei Ramirez, Adam Eaton, and Melky Cabrera have keyed the turnaround. Ivan Nova hasn't looked good so far this year, and Nova gives up a lot of fly balls. The wind is expected to be blowing out at nearly 25 mph for this game. The temperature is expected to be 90 degrees. That's perfect conditions for home runs. Samardzija is a good pitcher, but the Yankees lineup is excellent and they should put up some runs here too.

The over is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 with the total between 7 and 8.5. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. the AL Central. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The over is 6-0 in the White Sox last 6. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 with the total set at 7 to 8.5. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AL East. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a righty. A 43-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Milwaukee Brewers lineup looks a whole lot different without Carlos Gomez or Gerrardo Parra. Milwaukee has been struggling to score runs with those guys, and now without them I look for some bad offensive numbers from the Brewers the rest of the year. Chicago's offense has been disappointing in the past month. While the Cubs are very good against left handed pitching, they aren't good against righties. Matt Garza hasn't been good this year, but he has pitched well recently against his old team (the Cubs). Garza generally pitches better late in the season too. Kyle Hendricks has allowed just 2 runs in 18 and 1/3 innings against Milwaukee in his career.

The under is 4-0-2 in the Cubs last 6 when their opponent fails to score 2 runs last game. The under is 6-0-2 in the Brewers last 8. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 vs. a righty. The under is 4-0-2 in their last 6 after a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0-2 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0-2 in their last 8 with a total set between 7 and 8.5. The under is 4-0 in Garza's last 4 starts vs. the Cubs. A 37-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The St. Louis Cardinals offense broke out last night after being silenced by the Reds earlier this week. Kyle Kendrick starts for the Rockies in this game, and he's one of the worst pitchers in the big leagues. It isn't very often that you'll see a total of 7 on a game where Kendrick is pitching. Michael Wacha is clearly a good pitcher, but he's struggling with his command right now, and the Rockeis lineup is great against right handed pitching. I like the value on this total. Here's another spot where warm temperatures and wind blowing out will help us. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The ball really flies well in Arlington this time of the year. The temperature at game time is expected to be 97 degrees for this one. Nick Martinez is capable of giving up nearly this total by himself when he is off his game, and he has been awful of late. The Rangers should be able to put up a few themselves with the ball carrying well. Texas' bullpen is overtaxed right now, and they are terrible to start with. The Giants have been scoring runs by the bunches on the road this year. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Tigers have been one of the best offenses in the majors against left handed pitching all year. Wei Yin Chen has outperformed his advanced metrics by a huge margin this year. While I think Chen is a decent pitcher, I also believe he is due for some regression. Buck Farmer starts for Detroit, and he has been terrible so far in his young career. Farmer doesn't have the put away pitch needed, and this Orioles offense should jump on him. Neither bullpen is particularly strong, and the weather here is favorable for an over with temperatures in the upper 80's.

The over is 4-0 in Farmer's last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 meetings between these two in Baltimore. The over is 3-0-1 in Lance Barksdale's last 4 games behind the plate. The over is 21-4-1 in the Tigers last 26 with a total of 7 to 8.5. A 32-4 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Toronto Blue Jays average 5.50 runs per game against left handed pitching. They have been historically good this year against lefties. The Blue Jays lineup obviously got much scarier with the acquisition of Troy Tulowitzki. He's one of the best in the game against lefties too. Danny Duffy has a career 6.75 ERA against Toronto. I think Toronto gets to him here. Marco Estrada pitched better than his skill level was for much of the year, but he has struggled in his last couple starts. The Royals offense is really good against right handed pitching, and Ben Zobrist helps this offense in a big way. At a total of just 8.5, I see this as a solid value play with these two offenses. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Yankees scored 21 runs last night. In general, I don't love taking an over with a team that just scored that many runs the night before, but I 'm making an exception here. Colby Lewis is pure fade material at home, and I think the Yankees bats have a good chance of staying hot in Texas against Lewis. Lewis has a career ERA of 5 at home. This Yankees lineup is one of the top five in the majors right now. Another major key here in this one is the weather. It is expected to be 98 degrees at game time. That means the ball will be flying extremely well in Arlington on Wednesday night. Tanaka has been pretty good this year, but the Rangers have good numbers against right handed pitching this season. 

The over is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 games with the total set at 7 to 8.5. The over is 4-0-1 in the Rangers last 5 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The over is 5-0-1 in Lewis' last 6 as a home underdog. The over is 5-0 in Lewis' last 5 starts when the team's opponent scores 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in Lewis' last 4 home starts with a total of 8.5 or lower. The over is 7-1 in Lewis' last 8 on 4 days of rest. A 29-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Boston Red Sox have been slumping in a huge way. The Chicago White Sox have won five straight games, but it's important to note how bad the White Sox have been against left-handed pitching. Chicago has a ridiculously bad weighted on base average of .259 against lefties this year. No other team has a weighted on base average worse than .279 against lefties. Wade Miley started the season pitching poorly, but he has been very good of late. The White Sox have been surging offensively of late, but that was against a bunch of right handed pitching. Also very important here is the home plate umpire. Doug Eddings is the ultimate strike caller behind the dish. He'll help both pitchers a bunch here.

The under is 5-0 in the White Sox last 5 after allowing more than 5 runs last game. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a lefty. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series. The under is 8-0-1 in the Red Sox last 9 during game 2 of a series. The under is 4-0 in Miley's last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. A 25-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Mets offense is still terrible (I expect more deals for the Mets in the coming days). James Shields has been throwing it well of late. Collectively as a team the Mets have a .155 batting average against Shields. Noah Syndergaard has amazing stuff. When he's on he is nearly unhittable. The Padres offense has been a huge disappointment this year. Syndergaard has struggled at times on the road, but he has a sparkling 1.74 ERA at home. This feels like a 2-1 or 3-2 type game where neither teams gets many baserunners. Look for a pitcher's duel in New York.

The under is 5-0 in the Padres last 5 games following an off day. The under is 4-0 in the Padres last 4. The under is 5-0-1 in the Padres last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 vs. a righty. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0 in the Padres last 5 during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in the Mets last 5 following an off day. The under is 5-0 in their last with a total of 6.5 or lower. The under is 7-0 in Syndergaard's last 7 during game 1 of a series. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 as a home favorite. A 64-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Chicago Cubs hit left handed pitching very well. The Colorado Rockies crush right handed pitching. With a total of 7, I'm going over the total. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley, and I assume that's the reason for this total being so low. It's important to note though, that the projected wind speed is 6 mph on average tonight, so I think this line is an overreaction to the weather. De La Rosa isn't bad, but he is certainly hittable, and the Cubs splits vs. lefties are much better than vs. righties. Colorado is the best team in the majors against right handed pitching. While I do like Kyle Hendricks, I think the Rockies will get to him some here. The Rockies bullpen is awful, so once De La Rosa is gone the Cubs could add on several. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians offense is mired in a severe slump right now. They have been baffled by lefties the last two days. Carlos Rodon is inconsistent because of his inexperience, but he has tremendous stuff and I don't like the Indians chances of breaking out of their funk against him. Danny Salazar has had a lot of bad luck this year, and he shut out the White Sox once already this year. The White Sox, though they have hit it well in this series so far, have a terrible offense on the year. The biggest reason I like this play is home plate umpire Bill Miller. Miller is the biggest strike caller in the major leagues. The under is always worth a look with him behind the plate, and on Sunday (get away day) it's an even stronger indication. 

The under is 4-0 in Chicago's last 4 during game 4 of a series. The under is 4-0 in Salazar's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 8-1 in the last 9 vs. these two in Cleveland. The under is 23-4 in the last 27 meetings between these teams. A 39-5 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox lineup has been disappointing this year. Boston still has the potential to put up runs in bunches. They haven't done it as many times as they should have this year, but Alfredo Simon has been awful lately and I think they'll get plenty of chances here. Simon has allowed at least 4 runs in each of his last 6 starts (34 runs overall in those starts). Steven Wright starts here for the Red Sox. The Tigers offense is still one of the best offenses in the majors. Wright is a knuckleballer who is no better than mediocre, and he has a lot of trouble holding runners on base. Two offenses with a lot of potential and two pitchers I'm not high on. 

The over is 4-0-1 in Simon's last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. The over is 5-0-1 in Simon's last 6 starts as an underdog. The over is 3-0-1 in Simon's last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. The over is 4-0 in Simon's last 4 road starts. The over is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The over is 4-0 in Wright's last 4 starts. A 24-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star TGIF MLB Play of Day* The Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox meet Friday night, and I'm expecting a pitcher's duel here. Jose Quintana has been an underrated left hander for quite a while. Quintana has a dazzling 1.21 ERA in 5 appearances (4 starts) at Cleveland. Cleveland's offense hasn't been doing much in the last few days, and they'll likely have a hard time here. Corey Kluber's peripheral numbers aren't much different this year than they were last year. The offense just hasn't been scoring runs for him, and the defense has let him down several times. This is a White Sox lineup that is arguably the worst lineup in the American League. Adam Hamari is a big strike caller behind the plate here as well.

The under is 22-3-1 in Quintana's last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0-1 in the White Sox last 5 during game 2 of a series. The under is 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 Friday starts. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. The under is 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 vs. the White Sox. The under is 22-4 in the last 26 meetings between these two teams. A 67-7 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Jose Fernandez is a tremendous young pitcher. His upside is absolutely off the charts, and after a very long time away from the mound (due to injury), he has stepped right back in and been great in his first two starts. Arizona's bats are slumping right now, and it's hard to break out of a slump against a guy like Fernandez. Robbie Ray has quietly had a great season. The Marlins offense is bad to start with and without Stanton they are really bad. The Marlins bullpen is one of the best in baseball. Two young pitchers who should put together quality starts here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Noah Syndergaard and Jordan Zimmermann meet in what I expect to be a nice pitching duel. This is a getaway day game, which usually means some starters are out of the lineup and we often see some quicker at bats late in the game as well. Syndergaard has 5 walks and 30 strikeouts in his last 4 starts. He has amazing stuff, and the Nationals offense isn't hitting right now. The Mets offense is terrible and Zimmermann has a career 2.91 ERA against them. This is a pitcher's park and the wind will be blowing in from center field here. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs play a doubleheader on Wednesday. Doubleheaders are always tricky, because so many of the regulars get time off. Many times, I stay away from betting on doubleheader games at all. When I do have action on a doubleheader, it is usually an under. That is the case again here. Mike Leake has been in good form lately, and the Chicago Cubs haven't been good against right handed pitching this year. Kyle Hendricks is an underrated pitcher for the Cubs. Jim Reynolds is a good umpire to have here since he has turned into a nice under umpire in the last few years. Look for several starters to be out of this game.

The under is 4-0 in the Cubs last 4 after their opponent allows 5 runs or more. The under is 5-0 in the Cubs last 5 following a win. The under is 4-0 in Hendricks' last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 during game three of a series. A 29-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Ron Kulpa will be calling the balls and strikes in this one. Kulpa is one of the top under umpires in the game. He consistently has one of the highest strikes called percentages in baseball. He also has consistently rung up far more batters than the average umpire. Mat Latos and Jeremy Hellickson are both guys who try to paint the corners, and I see a friendly home plate umpire being highly beneficial to both of them. The Marlins offense is terrible without Stanton in the middle of the lineup. Latos has been throwing it much better lately and the Marlins bullpen is very good. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals offense has been bad in the past few weeks. All year long St. Louis has been markedly worse against left handed pitchers and Carlos Rodon unquestionably has the stuff to dominate if he has his command. Rodon threw the best game of his career last time out in a win against the Cubs. Michael Wacha has been very good this year, and he's up against the worst offense in baseball. The White Sox have been dreadfully bad on offense this year. Both bullpens are good and I expect this total to move downward, so grab this one early. 

The under is 5-0-1 in the Cardinals last 6 following an off day. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 4-0-1 in Wacha's last 5 vs. the AL Central. The under is 4-0-1 in the White Sox last 5 Tuesday games. The under is 5-0 in the White Sox last 5 during game one of a series. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Atlanta Braves aren't good at hitting left-handed pitching. The Los Angeles Dodgers aren't good at hitting left-handed pitching. Both of them will be facing a good lefty in this one. Brett Anderson toes the rubber for the Dodgers and Alex Wood for the Braves. If you look at both teams splits, they are drastically better against right handed pitching. Anderson has shown the ability to throw it really well this year, and Wood is a guy who has come on strong throughout the course of the year.

The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 when their opponent scores 5 or more runs last game. The under is 11-0 in the Braves last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The under is 5-0-1 in the Braves last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 6-0 in the Braves last 6 vs. a left handed pitcher. A 26-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* It's a matchup of Zack Greinke and Max Scherzer in Washington on Sunday afternoon. There isn't likely to be much offense here. This is an under I would have been at least somewhat interested in to start with, but with my single favorite under umpire Bill Miller behind the dish for this one, it's a four star rated play. Miller's strike zone has been the biggest in the majors the last two years, and the under is 35-15-1 in his last 51 Sunday games. There's no denying how well Greinke and Scherzer are pitching right now, and neither of these offenses have been swinging it all that well lately. I see a lot of quick innings throughout this one. Look for both starters to paint the corners with the wider strike zone. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers got one hit on Saturday night against Chris Tillman. Detroit has shown the ability to bounce back from poor offensive performances this year, and the Tigers have a favorable matchup on Sunday. Miguel Gonzalez has three starts in his career against Detroit, and zero of them are quality starts. His career ERA vs. Detroit is 8.47. Detroit's offense is a top five offense in baseball. Baltimore's offense ranks in the top ten offenses in baseball. In the past two years, Justin Verlander has a 5.25 ERA against the Orioles in four starts. Neither bullpen is all that great either. 

The over is 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts. The over is 5-0 in the Tigers last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0-1 in Verlander's last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts following a team loss. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Colby Lewis has been terrible when pitching in Texas over the course of his career. His ERA is above 5 in his career in Arlington. Lewis is in really bad form right now. The Padres offense has been scuffling, but I think they have a good chance of getting things going against him. James Shields is a good pitcher, but he does have problems with the long ball. Texas hits right handed pitching well, and there are several home run hitters in this Rangers lineup. Weather is important at Texas, and it will be in the upper 80's for this one. No umpire in baseball has a smaller strike zone than Paul Schrieber, so we have a great umpire for an over. Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Dallas Keuchel is a tremendous left-handed pitcher. He keeps the ball down and avoids the long ball very well. Tampa Bay's offense isn't very good, and I don't see them having much success against him here. Houston's bullpen is one of top five in the majors so far this year. Jake Odorizzi pitched great in his rehab start and I expect him to be ready for this first start back from the DL. The Astros offense isn't even close to as good without George Springer at the top of the order. Houston's offense is regressing of late. This is a pitcher's park and we have two very good pitcher's going here. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers offense has been on fire lately. Detroit has hit Phil Hughes well in the past too. Yoenis Cespedes is as hot as anyone in baseball today, and he has been great in his career against Hughes. Alfredo Simon starts for the Tigers, and he has allowed 5 runs or more in each of his last four starts. The Minnesota offense has been good against right handed pitching of late. Neither of these teams has a good bullpen. Detroit's bullpen imploded in the ninth inning Friday night, and the Twins have one of the five worst pens in baseball. This total is a full run too low in my opinion.

The over is 5-0 in Detroit's last 5 Saturday games. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 as a road underdog. The over is 11-0 in their last 11 games during game 3 of a series. The over is 6-0 in Simon's last 6. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 3-0-1 in Simon's last 4 on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 as an underdog. The over is 7-0-1 in Simon's last 8 after the Tigers allowed 5 runs or more last game. The over is 3-0-3 in the Twins last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. A 55-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star TGIF Play of Day* The Toronto Blue Jays absolutely destroy left-handed pitching. Toronto has a .365 weighted on base average. That's nearly 20 points higher than any other team in baseball. They face an average lefty here in Danny Duffy. Marco Estrada starts for the Blue Jays. Estrada isn't as good as he has pitched in the past month or so. He's a guy who is due for regression. The Kansas City Royals offense is hitting the ball really well in the last few days. I think this one has a real chance to be a back and forth affair between two good offenses. 

The over is 4-0 in the Jays last 4 Friday games. The over is 4-0 in Estrada's last 4 on grass. The over is 4-0 in the Royals last 4. The over is 7-0 in the Royals last 7 vs. the AL East. A 19-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Colorado Rockies rank second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Matt Shoemaker hasn't been very good this year, and pitching at Coors Field is a really tough place to get on track. Chris Rusin starts for the Rockies, and he isn't a good lefty at all. The Angels offense is the hottest in all of baseball. The Angels have scored 8, 13, 12, and 10 runs in their last four games. A double digit run total from the Angels again here wouldn't be shocking. The Rockies bullpen is awful, and rain could play a role in this game too. This has all the makings of a very high scoring game. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago White Sox offense has been really bad this year, but they get a chance to score here against Drew Hutchison. Hutchison has an ERA of 9.00 on the road this year, and he was torched last year in Chicago. John Danks starts opposite him for the White Sox. Danks is one of the worst left handed pitchers in the league. Toronto has a ridiculous .366 on base percentage against left handed pitchers. The Blue Jays are easily the best team in the league against lefties. This Toronto offense is fully capable of getting to the over themselves if they get on a roll as they do quite often against lefties. This total is a full run too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank sixth in the majors in hitting left handed pitching. The Texas Rangers rank ninth against right handed pitching. Matt Harrison is working his way back from an injury, and this is a tough matchup for him. In addition, Harrison isn't likely to go too deep into the game, and the Texas bullpen is arguably the worst in baseball. Jeremy Hellickson is a guy who gives up a lot of home runs, and it will be hot in Texas tonight with the ball flying well. The posted total here dropped to 9 overnight, which makes this one a play for me. Nine is a crucial number, so be sure you get that number. 

The over is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0-1 in Hellickson's last 5 following a quality start. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 3-0-1 in Texas' last 4 games with a total of 9 to 10.5. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games with a total of 9 to 10.5. A 21-0 angle. Take the over.