Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox will be up against Drew Hutchison in this one and I like what I've seen out of him. Hutchison is a strikeout pitcher who the Red Sox haven't seen much at all, and I think that gives him the advantage here. Boston's offense isn't clicking right now. Clay Buchholz has struggled badly this year, but his career numbers are awesome against Toronto. He has a sparkling 2.52 ERA in 19 appearances in his career against the Jays. It will be a cool damp night in Boston which should help out as well.

The under is 5-0 in Hutchison's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 7-0 in Boston's last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games overall vs. a righty. The under is 3-0-1 in Buchholz's last 4 home starts with a total of 9 or higher. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Texas Rangers offense hasn't been up to par of late, but this is still a lineup that will score a lot of runs this year. Prince Fielder says he expects to be back in the lineup Wednesday and that would be a nice boost. They'll be up against Chris Young here, and Young is due for some real regression since he isn't striking out many guys and opponents have a very low Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) against him this year. Seattle's offense is much better this year, and Tepesch is serviceable, but he is far from a strong pitcher. Day games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington generally see lots of fireworks. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds both have battered lineups. The top two hitters from the Reds lineup (Votto and Bruce) are both out with injuries. The top two hitters from the Nationals lineup (Harper and Zimmerman) are both out with injuries as well. Both of these offenses have really been struggling to string together hits. Johnny Cueto is pitching as well as any pitcher in baseball, and I expect a strong outing from him again here. This is a guy who has been mowing down even the best lineups. Doug Fister pitched great in his last outing, and he's backed by the best bullpen in baseball. It's a low total, but I see a strong potential for a 2-1 type of game. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Scott Carroll isn't a guy I expect to see in the big leagues for much longer. He has never had much success in Triple A, so I don't see why we should expect him to be able to get out major league hitters consistently. After a couple pretty good starts early on this year, Carroll has been bombed in his last two outings. Kansas City's Jason Vargas has struggled at home, and the White Sox have several guys who have hit the ball extremely well off him in the past. The weather will be a factor here as well. The wind is expected to be blowing 20-25 MPH out toward left center field here. That makes a big difference in this ballpark. I see plenty of runs being scored here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Wily Peralta and Mike Minor are both up and coming young pitchers. These are two guys that I expect big things from in the next few seasons. Peralta has been great away from home this year, and Minor has been very good in two of his first three starts of the season. Both of these offenses have been scuffling of late. The Braves average just 2.87 runs per game this year against right-handed starters. The Brewers are missing Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Gomez is questionable due to the stomach flu. Also important to note here that both teams have shutdown bullpens. 

The under is 4-0-1 in the Brewers last 5 games set at a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in Peralta's last 4 on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 home games after a road trip of 7 days or more. The under is 3-0-1 in Minor's last 4 starts vs. the Brewers. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. A 33-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays are both without a ton of their star hitters right now. Tampa Bay is without Ben Zobrist and they'll likely be without Desmond Jennings for a second straight game. Josh Hamilton and David Freese are both out for the Angels. David Price starts in this one for the Rays, and he pitched his best game in a very long time in his last outing. Price started a little rocky this year, but he is definitely an elite pitcher. Shoemaker makes just his third career big league start for the Angels in this one. He gets a Tampa Bay team that is somewhat offensively challenged to start with, and now they are without two of their four best hitters.

The real kicker in this game that made this a play for me is the home plate umpire. Bill Miller is behind the dish here. He's my single favorite under umpire, and his strike zone is massive. It seems to get even bigger on Sunday (getaway day). The under is an amazing 31-6 in his last 37 Sunday games. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Nationals and New York Mets are both offensively challenged right now. Washington is missing their top two hitters, and the Mets have a weak offense around David Wright. Zack Wheeler and Jordan Zimmermann are two guys who can normally be trusted to deliver a quality start. The Mets bullpen has been much better this year (13th in the majors), and the Nationals are a top three bullpen in the majors. The wind will be blowing in during this one as well.

The under is 2-0-2 in the Mets last 4 games. The under is 2-0-2 in Wheeler's last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 4-0-1 in the Nats last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 3-0-2 in their last 5 as a home favorite. An 11-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland Indians are starting to play better baseball in recent days. The offense has been hitting it well, but they run into a buzzsaw here in Sonny Gray. I've been really impressed with the way he has pitched all this year. Gray is extremely consistent, and that's something that most youngsters struggle with. Gray already shut down this Indians lineup once this year. The A's offense may be without Coco Crisp again here, and that hurts them a lot. Oakland's offense lacks firepower. Zach McAllister has been very good at home this year. The wind will be blowing in on a cold night in Cleveland, so the ball shouldn't fly well.

The under is 4-0 in Oakland's last 4 road games vs. a right-handed pitcher. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 3-0-1 in Gray's last following a quality start. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in Cleveland's last 5 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 days or more. The under is 4-0-1 in McAllister's last 5 home starts. The under is 4-0 in McAllister's last 4 home starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 32-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Total DOMINATION* Alfredo Simon has pitched very well this year, but he is due for some serious regression. It started last game against Colorado for him. Simon allowed 8 hits and 5 runs in just three innings of work. Simon isn't a good starting pitcher, and right now the oddsmakers are lining him as if he is. Kyle Kendrick is a guy I like to fade a lot as well. I think he has below average stuff, and he's in a hitter's ballpark here. Both offenses should match up well versus these two pitchers. Rain could be a factor in this game, and if it is the bullpens will see more work. Both of these bullpens are terrible. I think this total should be set at 9, and this kind of line mistake is very rare. Take the over big! 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Yordano Ventura is a name you'll want to get to know if you don't already know it. Ventura has electric stuff and is lighting up radar guns and frustrating hitters all over the league. Baltimore's lineup suffers a lot without Matt Wieters in the middle of the order. Chen starts here for the Orioles and he has really looked strong in his last few starts. Kansas City is hitting just .224 as a team against left-handed pitching this year. The wind here is expected to be blowing in at 10-15 mph on a cool day in Kansas City. 

The under is 3-0-1 in Chen's last 4 on five days of rest. The under is 7-0 in Chen's last 7 vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in Kansas City's last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their last game. The under is 4-0 in KC's last 4 following a win. The under is 3-0-1 in the Royals last 4 as a favorite. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 against a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. A 25-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over 8.5* Kevin Correia and Felix Doubront are both pitchers I like to fade normally, but in this case I'll just go with the over because I see lots of scoring opportunities for both teams. Both of these offenses are fully capable of putting up a bunch of runs, as they did in last night's game. Look for some long innings in this one. This total is set too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Bill Miller is my single favorite under umpire in the majors. Miller has a massive strike zone and he isn't shy at all about ringing anyone up. You'll likely see the batters from both sides in this game get upset with him multiple times in this game. It's get away day, and those are usually good for unders, especially with a great home plate umpire calling tons of strikes. The under is 24-4 in Miller's last 28 games behind the plate in Arizona. Brandon McCarthy has pitched great under the dome in Arizona. He has an ERA below 2.5 in his career under a dome. Doug Fister had a bad start last week but I expect a solid season from him. Chase Field's roof will be closed here, and that helps in a big way. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox lineup hasn't produced the way they are capable of so far this year. Over the course of the season, I expect the numbers from this group to get much better. This is still a talented lineup that will finish near the top of the majors in runs scored. The Twins offense has been much better than expected this year, and having a healthy Joe Mauer back in the lineup now is a big help. Ricky Nolasco and Felix Doubront are both guys who are capable of giving up big innings at any time. The total is set a little too low here. Take the over. 

*3 Star Heat/Nets Total DOMINATION* The Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat meet for Game 4 in Brooklyn on Monday night. Brooklyn made 15 three-pointers in Saturday night's game, and that game still barely went over the posted total. It's absolutely obvious that the Nets are doing their best to stall and grind these games to a halt vs. the Heat. Even though they are down 2-1 in the series, the Nets have played this series at their pace. Barring some ridiculous shooting percentages again, I believe this game stays under the posted total. This is a big game for both teams and the defenses should step up. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit Shelby Miller well in the past. Miller has been struggling so far this year, and Miller has an ERA over 4 in his career on the road. Charlie Morton has been awful (ERA above 6) in his career against the Cardinals. St. Louis has been cold of late, but this is a great matchup for them to bust out of their slump. A total of 7.5 is far too low given the tons of questions that come with both starting pitchers in this one. I think 8.5 would have been a fair line for this game.

The over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 3-0-1 in the Pirates last 4 as a favorite. The over is 6-1-1 in the Pirates last 8 games overall. The over is 3-0-1 in the Cardinals last 4 during game three of a series. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies both have terrible bullpens. The Mets bullpen is ranked 24th out of 30 teams in the majors. The Phillies bullpen is ranked 29th out of 30 teams. Mejia almost never lasts past the end of the fifth or sixth inning, so the Mets bullpen will be used often here. Philadelphia's lineup has been hitting it pretty well of late. Roberto Hernandez pitched well last game, but I don't trust him and he isn't the type of pitcher that deserves to have totals set this low.

The over is 3-0-1 in the Phillies last 4 Friday games. The over is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 2-0-2 in Mejia's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-1-1 in the Phillies last 7 road games. A 14-1 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers and Colorado Rockies both have lineups that can light up the scoreboard. Importantly, both of these teams are terrific against left-handed pitching. Both teams will start left-handed pitchers in this one. Texas is hitting .288 and averaging 6.31 runs against lefties this year. Colorado is hitting .316 and averaging 5.64 runs per game against lefties. Franklin Morales is a below average starter for Colorado. Matt Harrison is a mediocre starter who is just coming back from a major injury. The Rockies lineup is on fire right now, and I don't see Harrison slowing them down. Texas is poor against right-handers, but they get a great matchup here against Morales. 

The over is 6-0 in the Rockies last 6 interleague games as an underdog. The over is 5-0-2 in the Rockies last 7 road games with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 as a road underdog. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The over is 5-0 in Morales' last 5 road starts with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 interleague games against a lefty. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rangers last 4 home games with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in Harrison's last 4 starts as a favorite. The over is 3-0-1 in Harrison's last 4 starts overall. A 43-0 angle. Take the over big! 

*5 Star NBA TOP Play Total DOMINATION* I bet the under in the first game between these two and it came up a loser. A dunk with less than 10 seconds left cost me that win. It was a bad beat loser. The under lost because the scrubs pushed the tempo and scored like crazy in the last few minutes of the game. Looking closer at the box score from game one, the under was definitely the right play. The Heat shot 57% from the floor in that game. The Nets were blown out, but they still shot a very respectable 47% from the floor. There were 19 made three-point shots in Game One. With all of that being the case, the game only went over this total by one point. The defenses should be better here. I like the value on this under. Take the under big! 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles are both in favorable spots to score runs on Wednesday night. Cesar Ramos pitches for the Rays and he isn't a guy who can get past the fifth inning very often. Tampa Bay's bullpen ERA is 4.24, so if he exits early it gives the Orioles a good chance to score even more late. Ramos is far from dominating, and the Orioles generally hit lefties well. Tampa Bay's lineup is a bit underrated, and they have some guys who have hit Norris well in the past. This total is set awfully low, so I see plenty of value. 

The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 on turf. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 as a dog of +110 to +150. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AL East. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 as a road dog of +110 to +150. The over is 4-0 in Norris' last 4 starts with a total at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 6-0 in Tampa Bay's last 6 home games vs. a right-handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite of -110 to -150. A 40-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Padres offense is miserable. They have been the worst offense in the league this year, and it really hasn't been close. Kansas City's offense has been scuffling pretty badly of late as well. James Shields and Andrew Cashner are the aces of these two pitching staffs. With the last two games going extra innings, I expect these starters to be stretched out a bit here to save the bullpen and that should be a good thing with two extremely good starters like Shields and Cashner. Cashner is amazing at home, and Shields is a great strikeout pitcher against a Padres lineup that strikes out very often.

The under is 6-0 in Cashner's last 6 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite. The under is 5-0 in his last 3 during game 3 of a series. The under is 7-0 in Cashner's last 7 with a total set at 6.5 or lower. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 after the team scored 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 home starts. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 following a Padres loss. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a home favorite. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts with a total of 6.5 or lower. A 54-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Cubs will start Edwin Jackson in this one. Jackson has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball in the last two years. He has a brutal 5.24 ERA so far in 2014. In his career, he has a 6.60 ERA against the White Sox. This White Sox lineup has been much better than expected and I expect them to get to Jackson early and often. At the same time, Hector Noesi has been plugged in as a spot starter for the White Sox. Noesi has been awful this year, and even a bad lineup like the Cubs should put up several on Noesi. The total here is set very low because the wind will be blowing in. With these two starters on the mound, I can't pass up a total set at 7 runs. Take the over. 

*3 Star Nets/Heat Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat do have a fairly difficult second round matchup in the Brooklyn Nets. I expect Miami to win the series, but the Nets might make it competitive. The Nets do a great job knowing how to slow down this Heat offense. Miami thrives on fastbreak easy opportunities, and Brooklyn does a good job slowing the game down and forcing the Heat to beat them in the halfcourt. Brooklyn slowed the pace down to 88.8 possessions when they played the Heat this year, which is nearly five possessions slower than Miami's average game played to during the season overall. The fact that this should be a slow paced game makes me like the under quite a bit here.

The under is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 conference semifinals games. The under is 7-0 in the Nets last 7 after scoring 100 or more last game. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Miami. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Detroit Tigers and the Houston Astros have the two worst bullpens in the majors this year. The Tigers have a bullpen ERA of 5.31. The Astros have a bullpen ERA of 5.74. I expect both bullpens to be in the game for several innings here, which makes me like this over. Brett Oberholtzer was only mediocre in the minors and the Tigers hit left-handed pitching very well. Look for him to struggle through this start. Robbie Ray makes his first major league start for the Tigers. Ray doesn't have dominating stuff, and I doubt he'll work deep into this game. There should be plenty of scoring chances in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jered Weaver isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Weaver has lost a bunch of velocity and he doesn't have the same ability to strike out batters that he previously had. Even in the past, the Yankees lineup has torched him. Weaver has a brutal 5.93 ERA in 13 career starts against New York. David Phelps is a spot starter here for New York, and I'm not confident in his ability to come through for the Yankees. Phelps hasn't been good in the minors, and his past history in the majors is inconsistent at best. The Angels still score runs at home, and they have two elite hitters in Trout and Pujols.

The over is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 during game one of a series. The over is 3-0-1 in Phelps last 4 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in Weaver's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite. The over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 when the opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 6-0 in Weaver's last 6 starts overall. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the Yankees. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Aaron Harang isn't nearly as good of a pitcher as he has looked like early on this year. Harang had sparkling numbers before his last outing in which he gave up 9 earned runs. He still has a 2.97 ERA. This is a guy that didn't have a job until a few days before the season. Shelby Miller is regressing of late. Miller is walking far too many guys, and he has been wild inside the strike zone as well. Both of these offenses have been underperforming of late, but I think they'll have plenty of scoring chances in this one. A warm night in Atlanta with the wind blowing out helps a lot. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies and New York Mets will play Sunday afternoon in perfect conditions for scoring at Coors Field. The wind will be blowing out at about 15 mph. The temperature will be in the mid 80's and the ball should be flying extremely well. Paul Schrieber is the umpire behind the dish here, and by my data he is one of the best over umpires in the business because of his tiny strike zone. He is hesitant to ring up hitters. Dillon Gee has been bad at Coors in the past. Chacin is in his first game back from a major injury.

The over is 4-0-2 in the Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 overall. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 as an underdog. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rockies last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in Chacin's last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 home starts. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two at Coors Field. A 40-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays meet early Sunday afternoon in the Bronx. The wind is expected to be gusting out to center field at 20 mph or so here. Day games at Yankee Stadium are very beneficial to hitters to start with, and this should be great conditions for runs. C.C. Sabathia isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and several Rays hitter have hit him very well in the past. Erik Bedard isn't a good pitcher at all at this point in his career, and this Yankees lineup is very good. New York punishes left-handed pitching. 

The over is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with home winning record. The over is 5-0 in Sabathia's last 5 home starts vs. the Rays. A 19-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Portland Blazers have a second shot to close out the Houston Rockets on Friday night. Portland was unable to do it on the road last game, and if they don't win here they'll have to go back to Houston for Game 7. The potential close out spots are great chances to back the under in general. Defenses play harder and teams generally slow things down a bit. Last game stayed under at 206 and I cashed in there. I expect this one to stay below 210 as well. Great chance to play the under in a game that means a ton to both teams. Lots of pressure on both the Blazers and Rockets. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Ubaldo Jimenez has had some real trouble early in the year for his new team in Baltimore. Jimenez is a streaky pitcher, and until he turns it around I won't trust him at all. Ricky Nolasco is considered an ace for the Twins, which tells you how bad this pitching staff is. Nolasco has an ugly 6.67 ERA this year. Jimenez has an ERA of 6.59. Two pitchers that can't be trusted against two good lineups. The Twins offense is much better than expected, and the Orioles now have Machado back which helps a lot.

The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 road games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. right-handed pitching. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 as a road underdog. The over is 4-0-1 in the Twins last 5 home games set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 during game one of a series. A 41-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Dallas Mavericks are now fighting to stay alive. They are back at home in Dallas for Game 6. Dallas has proven they are a tough matchup for the Spurs in this series. The Spurs have had trouble getting any separation in this series. This is a potential closeout game and I like playing the under in these spots. Better defense and a slower tempo should be expected for a game that means this much to both teams. The under is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 when their opponent allows 100 or more in the last game. The under is 5-0 in Dallas' last 5 when their opponent scores 100 or more in the last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 when Dallas gives up 100 points or more. A 15-0 angle here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dan Straily and Clay Buchholz are both off to a shaky start to the season in 2014. Straily has been bad against good offenses, and now that Boston has gotten healthy again I consider them a good offense. Buchholz has been bad against everyone so far this year. Buchholz also has a miserable 7.90 ERA in six career starts against Oakland. The A's lineup is better than most believe. This game has the potential to see some very big innings.

The over is 5-0 in the A's last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 2 runs or less. The over is 5-0 in Straily's last 5 Friday starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total of 9 to 10.5. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total of 9 or higher. The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their last game. The over is 3-0-1 in Boston's last 4 during game one of a series. The over is 4-0 in Buchholz's last 4 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 on 5 days of rest. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 following a quality start in his last appearance. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 home starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 when the Red Sox opponent gives up 2 runs or less in their last game. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts when the Red Sox score 5 runs or more in their last game. A 52-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total Value* There is some extra value on the under in this game because Game 5 was so high scoring. The shooting percentages in Game 5 were just ridiculously high, and I don't expect to see that in a potential close out game in Brooklyn. Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow tempo, and they are both fully capable of bogging down on offense for long stretches of time. Closeout games are great chances to back the under, and last game boosted the value nicely. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Memphis Grizzlies have a chance to close out this series on Thursday night. Memphis knows the way they have the best chance to win in this series is by slowing the game down and making it a defensive battle. Tony Allen has been tremendous on Kevin Durant in this series, and the Grizzlies have slowed the game down and entered it into the post constantly. Oklahoma City is an excellent defensive team as well. The shooting percentages have been terrible in this series, and that makes sense based on the types of shots they are getting. In a close out game with tons on the line, the tempo should slow down and the defense should get even tougher. The under is the value play here.  Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION*  The Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers have seen three of the first four games in this series go into overtime. The under would have cashed in on two of those games and the extra session pushed the game over. This is a potential close out game, and those are generally played at a slower pace with more defense because of how much the game means to both teams. The fact that overtimes have pushed these games so high on the final point total gives us value on the under here. You can't expect overtime, and if we don't get overtime here, I like our chances of cashing in the under. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Heat/Bobcats Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat are cruising to an easy first round playoff win over the Charlotte Bobcats. It certainly shouldn't be seen as any surprise that it has been so easy for the Heat. Charlotte fought hard and should be commended on their season this year, but the Bobcats are outclassed in every way in this series. One important thing to remember this time of the year is close out games are often lower scoring than the rest of the series. I expect Miami to finish off this series here, and that makes me like the under more. If the Heat get a big lead here, expect the scoring to slow down in a big way as it did in Game Three (32 points in the fourth quarter between the two teams combined). If Charlotte is going to put up a fight here, it will be on the defensive end. Both teams like to slow down the tempo of the game.

The under is 5-0 in Charlotte's last 5 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-1 in Charlotte's last 5 home games. A 13-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants and Cleveland Indians meet on Sunday afternoon for the series finale here. This is clearly a pitcher's park, but in an afternoon game like this one it is certainly easier to hit a home run and get some more scoring than it is in late night games in the Bay Area. The Giants are averaging 4.29 runs per game this year, and this offense is definitely better than it was a year ago. Danny Salazar isn't hitting his spots, and the Giants have some professional hitters who should be able to make him pay for those mistakes. Ryan Vogelsong pitches for the Giants and he has a 7.71 ERA this season. The Indians offense should get to him early. 

The over is 5-0 in Salazar's last 5 as a favorite. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 on grass. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. The over is 3-0-1 in the Giants last 4 Sunday games. The over is 5-0 in Vogelsong's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open. The weather conditions tomorrow night should be perfect for hitters. The temperature will be in the 80's with wind blowing out at about 15 mph. You won't find better conditions than that. Hernandez is regressing the last couple years, and at this point I consider him one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Collmenter gives up far too many homers, and that isn't a good thing for his chances when the roof is open here. Both of these teams have offenses that are very capable of scoring several runs in this situation. Additionally, both bullpens are pretty weak so there will be chances late in the game too.

The over is 4-0-1 in the Phillies last 5 during game one of the series. The over is 4-0 in Collmenter's last 4 vs. the NL East. The over is 5-1 in Arizona's last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. A 13-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Kyle Kendrick starts for the Phillies here, and I've never been a fan of his. Kendrick can get blown up at any time, and he has been beaten up badly many times by this Dodgers team. He has allowed 21 earned runs in 22 and 2/3 innings pitched against the Dodgers. With Carl Crawford back and healthy, this Dodgers lineup is terrific. Dan Haren isn't a bad pitcher, but he's no longer a shutdown type of pitcher. The Phillies offense has several guys who have hit him well in the past. Mike DiMuro is a solid umpire to have behind the dish when playing an over. This number is set too low and we are getting plus money. Good value here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox will play the final game of a four game series on Thursday afternoon. Jose Quintana will take the mound for Chicago, and he has been great against Detroit in his career thus far. Quintana has a 2.70 ERA in his four career starts against this very good Tigers lineup. Max Scherzer will start for the Tigers, and he was the best pitcher in the AL last year. Scherzer is a strikeout pitcher, and the White Sox have a lot of free swingers. Dan Iassogna is behind the plate here, and I rate him as a decent under umpire which helps. In addition, this is getaway day for these teams and there may be some stars missing from the lineups.

The under is 4-0 in Quintana's last 4 during game four of a series. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in Scherzer's last 6 starts as a favorite. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a favorite of -151 to -200. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts following a quality start. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts overall. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians and the Kansas City Royals meet in a very early game on Thursday afternoon. This one gets underway just after noon eastern time. This is a classic getaway day spot for both teams. Cleveland leaves for San Francisco after this game and the Royals leave for Baltimore. Cool weather and a breeze blowing in from center field should help as well. Bruce Chen was great against the Indians last year, and he has an ERA of 2.7 at Cleveland in his career. Kluber has been shaky early in the year, but he is up and coming pitcher with a high upside. Expect several key players to be missing from the lineups here.

The under is 5-0-1 in the Royals last 6 games as a +110 to +150 road underdog. The under is 5-0 in the Indians last 5 home games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 5-0 in home plate umpire Greg Gibson's last 5 games behind the plate. The under is 4-1 in Chen's last 5 starts in Cleveland. A 19-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Chicago White Sox lead the majors in runs scored this year. Chicago's offense has received a major boost from newcomers like Abreu and Simien. I'm not sure they can keep up this kind of production, but I do expect the White Sox to hit left-handers well this year with their right-hander heavy offense. Detroit's Drew Smyly has had trouble getting the White Sox out in the past, and this White Sox offense is clearly better than last year's version. Andre Rienzo has been no better than mediocre in Triple A, and I see no reason to expect him to be a good big leaguer. The Tigers offense will score a lot of runs this year. This total is set too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Aaron Harang has been brilliant so far this year for the Braves. Harang is a big reason why the Braves are at the top of the division this year. He was signed late after the team lost several pitchers to injuries. He has performed far better than any Braves fan could have ever hoped. Harang pitched a no-hitter through seven innings last time out. He faces a weak Miami lineup in this one. Nate Eovaldi has an ERA just above 2 in his career against Atlanta. Eovaldi is a young starter who I believe will turn into a very good pitcher in the next couple years. It's getaway day here and with the early start I expect some top hitters to get the day off here. 

The under is 7-0-1 in Eovaldi's last 8 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in Atlanta's last 5 Wednesday games. The under is 2-0-2 in Eovaldi's last 4 starts in Atlanta. The under is 3-0-2 in his last 5 starts against Atlanta overall. A 26-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Milwaukee Brewers have been the biggest surprise in baseball so far this year. Their pitching staff has proven to be much better than most expected. Wily Peralta showed glimpses of brilliance late last year, and his season has started very well this year. Peralta is getting a lot of ground ball outs, and he is controlling his pitches much better than he has in the past. Andrew Cashner is a true budding superstar on the mound for the Padres. He has been absolutely dealing of late. This is a guy who is capable of shutting down any lineup he faces. He one-hit the Tigers in a CG shutout earlier this year. 

The under is 3-0-1 in the Padres last 4 vs. a righty. The under is 4-0 in Cashner's last 4 Monday starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 following a quality start. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a road underdog. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 when the team's opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in the Brewers last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in Peralta's last 4 games during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in his lats 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 60-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Rick Porcello has been awful against the Los Angeles Angels in his career. How bad has he been? Porcello has an ugly 8.34 ERA in more than 45 innings against the Angels. In such a large sample size, that's about as bad as you'll see. The Angels offense is a bit hobbled right now, but I expect them to have success against Porcello. Hector Santiago hasn't proven himself as a big league starter, and I expect him to have a tough time (as many pitchers will this year) against a very good Detroit Tigers lineup. 

The over is 8-1 in Porcello's last 9 starts against the Angels. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 following a game where they scored 2 runs or less. The over is 5-0 in the Angels last 5 during game three of a series. A 24-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles have had a lot of spirited battles in the past couple years. Most of those games have been great pitchers contests. These two teams don't score many runs when they get together. Chris Tillman has an impressive 2.37 ERA at Fenway Park in his career. Tillman will face a Red Sox lineup that has really struggled so far this year, and they definitely miss Shane Victorino. John Lackey has been great against Baltimore as well. Lackey has turned his career around once again in the past couple years. It will be a cold night with the wind blowing in at Fenway, which should help keep the ball in the yard.

The under is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 following a day off. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 5-0-1 in Tillman's last 6 starts during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in Tillman's last 5 starts as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a dog of +110 to +150. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts following an Orioles loss in their previous game. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5. The under is 6-0-1 in Boston's last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in Lackey's last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The under is 4-0 in Tillman's last 4 starts at Fenway. A 61-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value Play* The Tampa Bay Rays have absolutely torched Hiroki Kuroda in his career. Kuroda has a dreadful ERA of 7.36 in his career against the Rays. Tampa Bay seems to have his number. Tampa Bay's offense has been struggling of late, but I think they'll get to Kuroda again here. New York piled up 10 runs last night. The Yankees are going to score a bunch of runs this year, and I think last night was a sign of things to come. Erik Bedard is way past his prime and this Yankees lineup is built to hit lefties well. I can't imagine him having too much success against this lineup. Joe West is a good umpire to have behind the dish with his small strike zone. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 games behind the plate. The over is 4-1 in Kuroda's 5 starts against Tampa Bay. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals meet in a game with two pitching stars Friday night. I love to back both Michael Wacha and Gio Gonzalez, but instead of picking a winner here I'm going to play the under. The Nationals are on quite an under streak of late, which I believe has given us some value on the under. Wacha nearly threw a no-hitter against the Nationals last year, and Gonzalez has a career ERA of just above 1 against the Cardinals. This St. Louis lineup is very good, but their weakness seems to be elite lefties and Gonzalez is definitely elite. At home, Gonzalez is often nearly unhittable. Both bullpens are deep and I see this one being a close low scoring game all the way. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants offense has surprised a lot of people so far this year. Angel Pagan is getting on at the top of the order and setting the table for guys like Sandoval and Posey. Brandon Belt is stepping up in a big way as well. The Dodgers lineup is one of the best in the National League, and they'll score plenty of runs this year. 

Ryan Vogelsong has an ERA of 8.7 in his last three starts against the Dodgers. Vogelsong was torched through the spring and has been really bad in his regular season starts as well. It seems he either has something wrong medically or his confidence is completely gone. I expect the Dodgers to hit him well again Wednesday night. Paul Maholm isn't a guy I trust, and the Giants have hit left-handed pitching well of late. The Giants should get their runs as well in this one.

The over is 10-1-2 in the Giants last 13 Wednesday games. The over is 10-1 in the Giants last 11 as a favorite. The over is 20-4-2 in Vogelsong's last 26 starts as a favorite. A 40-4 angle here. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants offense has started the season on fire. The Giants struggled offensively all year in 2013, but this lineup has been much better. Michael Morse gives the team a nice boost, and Brandon Belt has been much more consistent of late. They'll be up against Josh Beckett in this one. Beckett hasn't been an elite pitcher in the last couple years, and I expect the Giants to put up several runs. Tim Lincecum starts for San Francisco here. He has pitched poorly in both starts this year despite facing the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks. Lincecum isn't even close to the caliber of pitcher he was a few seasons ago. His velocity is way down, and that's a major problem. The Dodgers lineup has been very good this year. Both of these pitchers are past their prime. The over is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 during game one of a series. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a righty. The over is 5-0 in Beckett's last 5 starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the NL West. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. A 32-0 angle. Take the over.

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Cardinals have what I believe is the best lineup in the National League right now. Everyone in this lineup can hit the ball. Marco Estrada has been pitching well so far this year, but Estrada's history against the Cardinals has been terrible. In 47 innings, Estrada has a 5.74 ERA against the Cardinals in his career. Milwaukee's offense has been superb this year, and Shelby Miller has totally lost his confidence and command on the mound. Miller has a 4.7 ERA on the road in his career, and he has been pitching very poorly of late. I don't expect him to turn it around in this one against a good Brewers lineup. Take the over in this one.