Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips scored two touchdowns last week against a weak Eastern Michigan defense. Don't let that fool you into thinking Akron is getting good offensively though. Akron hit a 87 yard TD pass for one of the scores and then they scored with a minute left when Eastern Michigan was up huge and playing a prevent defense.

Miami (Ohio) has the best defense in the MAC. Akron has been held to 6 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. A touchdown or less from Akron is very possible here. 

Miami (Ohio) is weak offensively and they typically try not to run up the score. The Redhawks should win this game comfortably, and I believe that's a good thing for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have the talent to be an excellent defensive team. They rank 10th in defensive efficiency so far this year. Philadelphia has also slowed their pace down this year. The 76ers are 15th in the league in tempo overall. In the past six games alone, the 76ers are 24th in the NBA in tempo. 

The New York Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace. The Knicks rank 27th in pace for the year and 28th in pace in the last six games only. New York is 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Knicks shot extremely well in their last game, a win over Cleveland, but they'll face a much tougher test here. 

The 76ers offense is only 18th in offensive efficiency. Philadelphia has been inconsistent on the offensive end.

This is a divisional game where the home team is a clear favorite, and those matchups have been good to under bettors in the past decade in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Holy Cross Crusaders have a new coach in Brett Nelson. Nelson has changed their style of play drastically. Before, Holy Cross would run the clock down low every possession with the Princeton offense of Bill Carmody. Nelson wants the team to push the pace at every opportunity. 

Holy Cross games have averaged 6.5 possessions per game more than they did a year ago. The Crusaders lost their best defensive players from last year, and they are going to be very weak on defense this year. They rank 320th in defensive efficiency so far this year in the country, so it has been a major struggle. They even allowed 87 points to a New Hampshire team that ranked dead last at 353rd in the counry in offensive efficiency last year.

Northeastern's Bill Coen runs a great motion offense. This team constantly moves without the ball and gets great looks at the basket. Northeastern was 13th in effective field goal percentage offense two years ago. They were 5th last year. They are 21st in the country so far this year. Look for them to get a lot of wide open looks against Holy Cross.

Two of Holy Cross' three games this year have finished at 166 points or higher. Northeastern has seen an average of 149.5 points scored in their games (3 of 4 have finished at 145 or higher).

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have proven what they are at this point. The Bears are a team with a really good defense and a terrible offense. Trubisky isn't the answer at QB, and the offensive line in front of him has been a disappointment as well.

Does that sound familiar? The Rams defense isn't as good as the Bears, and the Rams offense is better than the Bears, but there are a lot of similarities here. Jared Goff has been a huge disappointment. The Rams offensive line is a mess. They haven't been good and they are banged up as well.

These two teams met each other last year and the Bears won 15-6. I couldn't expect a game that low scoring again, but I do think it will be a defensive battle.

The Bears have played six games to a total of 36 points or lower this year. The Rams have played five games to a total of 36 points or lower this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Before the season new Fairfield coach Jay Young said of his team "Scoring is going to be a big concern." First of all, it is very rare you'll see a coach say that about their team before a season. At the same time, it is refreshing to see someone who just is honest and calls out their weakness from day one. 

Indeed it has been a struggle for Fairfield on the offensive end. Fairfield ranks 303rd in offensive efficiency so far this year. The Stags are averaging 61 points per game in regulation in their first three contests. They are also playing at an extremely slow tempo. They are looking to turn these games into grinders.

Loyola Maryland has played to the pace of the opponent most of the time the last couple seasons. The Greyhounds aren't likely to be out in transition too much here. They scored only 53 points on Marquette and 53 points against Old Dominion as well.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green have made it abundantly clear in their first four games that they want to stall. Dartmouth ranks 339th in the nation in average possession length. This ranks them among the 15 slowest teams in the country. 

It's pretty rare to see a total set this high when one team is playing so slowly. Dartmouth's final totals so far this year have been 131 points, 104 points, 101 points, and 94 points. 

UMass Lowell was willing to play a slow paced game with Merrimack yesterday. This one will likely be played quicker than that game, but I still see a tempo in the mid 60's (possessions) as likely. 

Both teams have been good at defending without fouling the last couple seasons. They have both also been good at clearing defensive rebounds.

This total is several points too high.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* North Dakota State and Stony Brook both want to play at a slow pace. These are two teams who are comfortable playing physical halfcourt games where possessions are at a premium. Both teams are good on the defensive glass, which should limit how many second chance opportunities there are in this one.

This is a neutral site game in Texas in the early afternoon. Neither team is close at all to home and this is a relatively large arena (8,500 capacity) that will be mostly empty for this game. These situations are helpful for the under. The shooting backdrop isn't as good in these cases. 

North Dakota State relies on the 3 ball a lot, and the 3 point line being moved back this year could hurt their efficiency. Stony Brook has a lot of offensive question marks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs defense has allowed 33.42 points per game in their last seven games. Tampa Bay's pass defense is absolutely horrendous. Vernon Hargreaves hadn't performed up to what was expected, but releasing him definitely didn't make this secondary any better. 

Tampa Bay has only allowed less than 27 points in a single game all year. That was their win over Carolina early in the year where Cam Newton was clearly hurt. This Bucs defense is really bad. 

New Orleans has scored 40, 28, and 31 points against Tampa Bay in the last three meetings. Coming off a bad performance last week, I would expect the Saints offense to bounce back in a big way here.

The Saints defense will likely be without Marshon Lattimore, and he is the key to the Saints secondary. Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston is inconsistent, but the Bucs are loaded at wide receiver and they should be able to move the ball and score plenty in this one too.

The over is 7-0 in the Bucs last 7. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are playing a stingy zone defense. Joe Gallo is known for his defensive prowess, and he has this new Division I team working really hard in their unique zone defense. This is a morphing zone where they deny far more passes to the wing than most zones do. They held Northwestern to 61 points. They then held Dartmouth to 55 points. Yesterday, they held UMass Lowell to 58 points.

Merrimack wants to slow the game down. They rank 316th overall in the country in tempo. They settle for too many bad 3 pointers on the offensive end.

Jacksonville is 265th in overall tempo and 302nd in average possession length. They should be happy to play a slow tempo here as well.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia State Panthers will be without star quarterback Dan Ellington in this one. Ellington was hurt at the end of the second quarter in last week's 45-31 loss to ULM. Georgia State scored 24 points while Ellington was in that game, and they scored only 7 points without him. Cornelious Brown was 8/18 for 80 yards in relief of Ellington. Brown isn't the player that Ellington is, and Georgia State is up against a good defense here.

Appalachian State's defense didn't look very good earlier this year, but they have rounded into form. Appalachian State has allowed 7 points or less in three of their last four Sun Belt games. In their last five games overall, the Mountaineers have given up an average of 11.2 points per game.

Georgia State's defense is bad, and Appalachian State should be able to move the ball a lot on them. The Mountaineers have slowed their pace down with big leads though, and I think this total is several points too high given the GA State quarterback situation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both schools actually rank in the top 40 in yard per play and despite Air Force's slow tempo, they have been able to put points on the board due to their effectiveness in the red zone (averaging 38 points per game in conference play so far). The Falcons also have a bit more of a passing game to keep teams honest than they have had in recent seasons. 

*4 Star Play Under*  Bo Nix and the Auburn offense has struggled when they step up in class. While he does look better at home, that has been against far inferior defenses. On the flip side of the ball, Auburn's defense has been outstanding all year long, including holding LSU to their lowest point total and their lowest yard per play (per game) of the season, and that was in Baton Rouge. Auburn's defense has been impressive in nearly every aspect of the game, stopping the run, preventing explosive plays and red zone defense.

Georgia is going through at a surprisingly slow tempo this year, ranking 125 of 130 teams (and last in the SEC in just conference games). While their offense has looked good, they don't have the experience of the schedule that auburn has faced so far and I would give the edge to auburn's defense, especially with the hostile home crowd at Auburn. Both defenses rank in top 20 in yards-per-play allowed as well as red zone TD scoring %. Both offense run the ball frequently (57% of the time for UGA and 60% for Auburn), so the clock should keep rolling a lot in this one.  Great defenses and a running clock would favor a low scoring affair as the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry adds a new chapter.

In a game that mean a lot to both teams, look for the defenses to be ready to go. The offenses will have to work hard for their points. Take the under.

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats have had less than 45 total points scored in every SEC game other than their opener against Florida. Remember, that game had 43 points and as Florida tried to run out the clock with a few seconds left they busted a long TD run. Kentucky has run the ball a bunch all year, and the Wildcats offense has really struggled. Their defense has kept them in games. 

Vanderbilt's offense is absolutely hapless. They are averaging a miserable 3.93 yards per play in SEC play. That is easily last in the conference. In SEC play they have only 13 plays of 20 yards or more all season. The Commodores often get behind and need to try to throw the ball, but their passing game is absolutely awful.

Both of these teams play at a pace far slower than the average team. I would expect an ugly contest here that stays under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles have one of the worst offenses in the country. Tennessee Tech scored only 30 points on Friday in a blowout loss to UNC Greensboro. While I can't expect them to put up such a low point total again, I wouldn't expect a lot of points from them here. This is a team that turns the ball over at such a high percentage that they waste all sorts of possessions. 

Appalachian State plays at a slightly slower pace than average. Tennessee Tech plays at a slow pace as well.

This is an early season neutral site game, and these have been very strong to the under in the long run. This number is quite a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans have been a really good over team this year. Troy ranks 15th in the nation in tempo. The Trojans are 28th in yards per play on offense as well, so they have been putting up some big numbers. Troy has multiple options on the outside, and they have a veteran signal caller under center.

Texas State ranks 48th in tempo. The Bobcats offense has finally started to click a bit better in recent weeks. There are some good offensive coaches on this staff, and I would expect them to be able to get things going more on the offensive end the rest of this year- and then especially get it going even more next year.

These two teams rank 13th and 6th in the nation in percentage of plays that are a pass. That being the case, there should be a lot of possessions in this game with both teams playing at a fast pace too.

This total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green have been really impressive so far this year. Dartmouth has been able to control the pace of the game in each of their three games. They are 3-0 on the year. Dartmouth ranks 336th in average possession length so far this year. There has been an average of just 112 points total in Dartmouth's three games so far this year.

Jacksonville has played at a pace slower than average so far this year as well. Tony Jasick's team tends to play to the pace of their opponent more often than not.

This game is at a neutral site, and early games at neutral sites in college basketball has been a strong angle to the under in recent seasons. Rule changes for this year have made that an even stronger angle.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers defense ranks 10th in the country in yards per play allowed. They likely aren't that good since they have played a weak schedule, but the strength of this Missouri team has been their defense.

Missouri's offense ranks 11th in the SEC in yards per play at 5.01 yards per play. The Tigers only have 37 plays of 20 yards or more this year (97th in the country). This offensive line has allowed 19 sacks, and the Florida defense ranks 5th in the country with 35 sacks so far this year. They'll be in the Missouri backfield in this game.

Florida's offense and Missouri's offense both play at a slightly slower than average pace. Florida has been pass heavy this year, and the strength of the Missouri defense is the secondary.

Florida's defense ranks 24th in yards per play allowed, and that number is skewed from their giving up so much against LSU. Missouri's offense clearly isn't LSU. 

This total has been bet up to a point where I see a good amount of value. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Through two games UC Riverside is using an average of 25.1 seconds of the 30 second shot clock. That is far slower than anyone else in the country so far this year. The Highlanders should do the same thing again here.

Sacramento State lost their star offensive player in Marcus Graves from last year's team. This offense is likely to be pretty inefficient without him. The Hornets tend to prefer playing at a slow pace as well.

This is a game that should be played in the halfcourt, and we have two offenses with a bunch of question marks. The new rules are helpful to the under since both teams likely have to settle for some bad 3's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I view San Diego State as a great under team. They are so consistent in playing low scoring games. They have only played one game all season that has finished higher than 44 points. That's truly amazing this late in the year. 

Both offenses rank in the top half in conference play on percentage of plays that are runs as both run the ball north of 50%  of the time, which means a lot of running clock which is good for the under (SD St running the ball on 60 % of plays in conference games so far).

*3 Star Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green always want to slow the game down. Dartmouth ranked 295th in average length of possession two years ago. They ranked 321st a year ago. So far this season, they rank 328th in tempo. 

Merrimack College is transitioning to Division I this year. Joe Gallo is a really good head coach. He has this team playing a unique zone defense that really bothered Northwestern in Merrimack's stunning win over the Wildcats in their last game. I would expect most of Merrimack's games to be played at a fairly slow pace based on their extended zone.

This game is being played at a neutral site. Neutral site unders have done really well in the past thanks to lower shooting numbers. This year the 3 point line being moved back is an extra positive for a situation like this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Presbyterian Blue Hose had a nice year last year. They lost just about everyone from last year's team though. That included their head coach Dustin Kerns, who did a great job with this program. The Blue Hose didn't return a single double digit scorer this year. 

Presbyterian has a new head coach in Quinton Ferrell. Ferrell was an assistant coach at College of Charleston, where they have been known for their relatively slow pace and extremely strong defense. In their first couple games of the year, Presbyterian has slowed the game down quite a bit. This isn't a team with much scoring depth, and I think they'll want to play lower scoring games.

Morehead State ranks among the 30 slowest paced teams in the nation so far this year when it comes to average length of possession. They slowed down a Samford team that wants to play very quickly. The Eagles aren't likely to be pushing the pace too hard here either.

With the new rules in college basketball helping the under thus far, a total like this between two teams who lack scorers is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under*   (4 star play down to 128- 3 star play down to 125.5*

Wyoming has slowed their pace down to a crawl this year. The oddsmakers have adjusted, but I don't believe they have adjusted enough. Wyoming played really quick a couple years ago, and they were in the middle of the pack this year. They should finish among the 5 or 10 slowest teams in the country in pace this season. They will likely be a decent team defensively, but their offense is inefficient. 

Fullerton lost their two star scorers in Ahmad and Allman. The Titans are one of the better defensive teams in the Big West. Fullerton offensively should struggle with efficiency this year as they look to find a new identity on the offensive end. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Missouri State was an automatic under last year, and until I see something different I'm riding the under train again here. Missouri State uses up the clock very well and they play excellent defense. Cleveland State has slowed down so far this year, and I don't think they'll push the pace. This is a Cleveland State offense that is very inefficient as well.

I see this one staying in the 120's. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand on Tuesday night.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Star TOP Play Over* The Mississippi State Delta Devils have played at a ridiculous pace in their first three games. Their defense is arguably the worst in the country as well. The Delta Devils have given up 110, 143, and 134 points in their first three games.

Western Michigan does play slower than those other teams. I don't think the Broncos will score 130 points, but I also think they'll put up a big number. This will be the worst defense they face all year. 

I think this one is lined quite a bit too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips have scored a grand total of 9 points in their last four games. Akron's offense is the worst in the country. The Zips are averaging 3.50 yards per play inside a MAC that is filled with bad defenses.

Eastern Michigan has been a disappointment this year, but they are a big favorite here as they should be. Eastern Michigan is a good passing team, but they can't run the ball. If they get a lead, I wouldn't expect them to have much success running later in the game as they bleed the clock. 

Akron's defense actually ranks 54th best in the country and 4th best in the MAC. They are a respectable unit.

It is set to snow in Akron on Tuesday. Most of the snow will likely be done by the time the game starts, but winds of about 13-15 mph and very cold temperatures will still be around during this contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Florida A&M Rattlers got much better defensively last year. Florida A&M went from 289th in effective field goal percentage defense two years ago to 70th a year ago. The Rattlers do have significant problems on the offensive end though. Florida A&M ranked 347th in the country averaging only 0.894 points per possession a year ago.

Florida A&M was also among the 40 slowest teams in the country in terms of pace last year. They will play slowly again this season. Florida A&M saw 6 of their first 9 games last year stay at 128 points or lower. Their first three games this year have finished with totals of 125, 115, and 130 points.

South Dakota is the much better team here, and they should be able to coast to a victory. The Coyotes have been great from 3 point range so far this year, but some regression should be expected there. Florida A&M has been good at defending the 3 ball the last couple years too.

South Dakota has been happy to slow the pace of the game down with a lead under Todd Lee. I would expect the same here.

This is a neutral site game and that is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dusty May has a really deep team, and he has said that he wants his team to be uptempo on offense. May said the team is healthier this year (Ingram and Sebree were hurt last year), and their improved depth will help them play faster.

We all know Nate Oats wants to run at Alabama. It is no secret that Oats had great success at Buffalo by forcing the pace in a big way. The slowest overall tempo his teams at Buffalo had still ranked 39th in the country in fastest paced. The last two seasons, Buffalo's average possession length was among the five fastest in the nation.

Alabama played their first game to 84 possessions- so they were absolutely flying up and down the court in that one.

We should see a really quick pace here, so if we can avoid an ugly shooting night- I like the chances of this one being a high scoring affair. 

I think both of these teams have improved offenses from a year ago.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys are two of the most run heavy teams in the NFL. Minnesota ranks 3rd highest in the league in percentage of plays that are a rush. Dallas ranks 6th highest in the league in percentage of plays that are a run. 

These two run defenses have been excellent at not giving up big running plays this year. Dallas has allowed only one run all year of 20 yards or more. That's the best in the NFL. Minnesota has allowed only two runs of 20 yards or more so far this year. That's second best in the NFL.

With a lot of running plays and teams who have been good at avoiding giving up big plays, I see a lot of moving clock and long drives here. If we get some drives where they take a lot of time off the clock and kick a field goal or don't score at all, it's a big plus for the under. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins offense has been middle of the pack the last few weeks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is actually playing pretty well right now. It's clear he is a big improvement from Josh Rosen. The Dolphins should be able to move the ball here against a Colts defense that is mediocre at best. 

Brian Hoyer gets the start here and the Colts are definitely short handed on offense, but this Miami defense is very bad. Miami has faced the 28th toughest slate of offenses this year, but still ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They have been especially bad in the secondary, and they have a cluster injury problem in the secondary right now. Even with the Colts banged up on offense, I think Frank Reich and this Colts offense will have a good game plan to take advantage of this Miami secondary.

This is a low total for a dome with two questionable defenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Denver Nuggets have played at by far the slowest pace in the NBA. Denver is averaging just 97.05 possessions per game. That is nearly two full possessions per game slower than the second slowest team in the league. 

Minnesota is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the league. The Timberwolves do play fast, but a closer look at their schedule so far and you'll see they have played a lot of very fast paced teams. Minnesota hasn't played a team all year ranked slower than 20th in tempo. They have also played 5 of their 8 games against teams ranked in the top nine in the NBA in tempo. 

Denver ranks 9th in defensive efficiency in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 15th. Therse two teams rank 20th and 22nd in offensive efficiency.

Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the long run in the NBA. Sunday divisional unders have done particularly well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* San Diego State is great at turning games into a rock fight. They are great defensively. They are challenged offensively. They are also well-coached. San Diego State hasn't had a single game finish with anymore than 48 combined points all year. That's truly amazing this deep into the season. They have also had 4 games with 37 points or fewer in them. 

Nevada's offense has been hapless of late. They don't have an answer at the quarterback spot. This team has no identity on offense, and I find it hard to imagine them scoring many at all in this game.

San Diego State is typically a team that doesn't win by margins. They are content to run the ball and use up a bunch of the clock. They should do it again here once in the lead.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* St. John's put up 109 points against Mercer in their first game. Mike Anderson brings renewed energy to this St. John's basketball program. The Red Storm have a bunch of quickness and Anderson believes the talent matches his scheme nicely. Anderson's teams always want to run and full court press. St. John's forced that first game to a blistering pace of 83 possessions.

Central Connecticut State coach Donyell Marshall has talked about wanting to play quick. If they want to play quick- here is their chance. C Conn State's defense is very weak and they turn it over a lot. St. John's should put up a really big number here. 

If the pace is as quick as I believe it will be here, it won't even take great shooting numbers to get to this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears defense has really impressed me this year. Baylor ranks 20th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Baylor already has 26 sacks this year. They have been very good at getting into the opponents backfield. This is an aggressive Bears defense that is likely to cause the TCU questionable offensive line trouble.

TCU has a solid defense too. The Horned Frogs rank 40th in yards per play allowed, but they have played some very good offenses. Gary Patterson is a defensive minded coach who should have this defense ready for this matchup.

Baylor put up some big numbers early in the season against some weak teams. Their offense is decent, but it is a bit overvalued. TCU's offense hasn't been good all season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Penn State Nittany Lions rank first in the country in yards per carry allowed (1.99 ypc allowed). Minnesota runs the ball on nearly 70% of their offensive plays. P.J. Fleck's team will try their best to use up a bunch of clock. They run the ball that often and then play at a bottom five pace. Minnesota will try to keep Penn State's offense off the field here. 

Penn State's offense has a star in Hamler, but the rest of the unit is good and not great. Clifford is up against a very good secondary here. Minnesota is a well-coached team and I would expect Penn State to have trouble picking up big plays. Minnesota is 5th in the nation in least 20 plus yard plays allowed. 

Look for some Big Ten smash mouth football played in Minnesota in what is a huge game for both teams. Both teams enter unbeaten and this is a big test for them.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Neutral site unders have done really well early in the season in college basketball. Since 2005, in games 1-8 of the season on a neutral court and a total of 134 or higher the under is 55.1%. That's a large sample size.

This game is played in Hawaii and neither team is accustomed to playing here. There have been some really low scoring games in neutral site games here in the past. This is a gym with a bit of a poor shooting backdrop, and Hawaii is obviously a long way away from home for both teams.

Pacific doesn't have enough offensive weapons to play quickly. Damon Stoudamire's team has slowed the pace down significantly in the last couple seasons. 

South Dakota and Pacific are two good defensive rebounding teams. I wouldn't expect too many second chance opportunities.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen host the Veteran's Classic on Friday night. This is a game that means a lot to the Navy program for obvious reasons. East Carolina is their opponent here. 

East Carolina ranked 319th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. Navy ranked 319th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. 

Navy struggled with getting a lot of their shots blocked last year. East Carolina is the tallest team in the country. They'll likely get quite a few blocked in this game.

East Carolina shot 28.4% from 3 last year and Navy shot 31.7% from 3 point range a year ago. The 3 point line has been moved back this year and thus far it has resulted in games that are quite a bit lower scoring. 

Both teams turn the ball over a bunch, so there should be a lot of wasted possessions. 

Navy used up 21.7 seconds of the shot clock on average in their first game against George Mason. That game was 52-52 at the end of regulation. They'll work hard to grind this game to a halt as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals System Play* Divisional games under the total in the NBA has been a good angle in the long run. That is especially true early in the season. 

I like taking divisional unders that are contrarian plays. Divisional unders where less than half the bets are on the under and less than half the money is on the under have done extremely well in the long run. How good has this angle been overall? For the whole season overall- the under is 309-235 (56.8% unders). In the first 30 games of the season, this system is at 60.5%.

Jeremy Lamb is out for the Pacers here, and he has been a big scorer (17 ppg) so far this year. The Pistons are without Reggie Jackson and Derrick Rose (20.8 ppg this year). Blake Griffin is also still out.

There aren't enough scorers here for this game to be lined this high. Both of these teams play slower than average and I like this system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maine Black Bears coach says they want to continue to use a "deliberate" pace. Maine was 342nd in the nation in length of possession on offense last year. Maine was also 335th in offensive efficiency. In 31 games against Division I opponents, Maine saw only 10 of their games get past this posted total. Only 8 of their 31 games went over this total in regulation.

Merrimack College transitions over to Division I this year. Merrimack is coached by Joe Gallo who was an assistant at Robert Morris a few years ago, and his team plays zone almost all the time. Their 2-3 zone will often slow the game down and force opponents to hit shots from the outside. Merrimack faces a Maine team that has shot 29.6% and 31.0% from 3 point range the last two years. 

Maine's defense should improve a bit under Richard Barron this year. The Black Bears were solid on the defensive glass last year.

Look for a slow pace in this one and I like it to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Duquesne is in the middle of a couple major transitions. Leading scorer and rebounder Eric Williams transferred to Oregon in the offseason. Frankie Hughes was the team's fourth leading scorer, and he is out with an injury. Duquesne will be relying on some youngsters in the backcourt. 

The Dukes weren't bad on defense last year, but they gave up far too many second chance points. Princeton consistently ranks near the bottom of the nation in offensive rebounds. 

Princeton lost Myles Stephens in the offseason, and there are a lot of questions about who their go to scoring options will be. The Tigers prefer to use clock on offense and they don't get to the line very much.

Princeton excels at defensive rebounding, and Duquesne got a lot of offense from second chance opportunities last year.

PPG Paints Arena (hockey arena) is where this one will be played. Duquesne doesn't really have a home gym while there campus arena is being worked on. PPG Paints arena has seen 6 of the last 8 games played here go under the total. Of those six games that have gone under- all but one of them stayed under the number by 12 points or more. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys are first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas had a bye week to get ready for this game. The Cowboys put it on Philadelphia in their last game. They should be up for this game though. They lost at New York against the lowly Jets earlier this year, and the Giants and Cowboys don't like each other.

The Giants offense has shown the ability to move the ball pretty well this year when they are healthy. They have their skill position stars back in Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram. They should be able to make enough big plays to score a decent amount.

The Giants secondary is a bottom five group in the NFL, and I expect Dak Prescott and his healthy group of receivers to beat them once again here. Ezekiel Elliot is a top two or three back in the NFL and he'll get his as well.

I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers offense has been on fire of late. Green Bay is averaging 32.3 points per game in their last six games. Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack have gotten it going. Now, Davante Adams is slated to come back from his injury in this one barring a setback in pregame warmups. 

Green Bay should be able to take advantage of a Chargers secondary that is weak at the safety spot. Injuries have really hurt that unit. 

The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator, and I think this offense will be more aggressive and move a little quicker under their new offensive coordinator. Phillip Rivers still has some pretty good playmakers around him. Green Bay has allowed 11 plays of 40 yards or more (worst in the NFL), so the Packers can be beaten deep.

We are under the key number of 49 here, and I'll back the over in this spot.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions offense is more pass heavy without Johnson at running back. Detroit is 5th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, so the Lions have been able to get quite a few big gainers in the passing game. The Raiders pass defense ranks 28th in yards per pass allowed. Matt Stafford and this Lions passing attack should have a lot of success here.

Oakland has been good both on the ground and through the air this year. The Raiders rank 6th in the NFL in yards per play. Detroit ranks 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Darius Slay is banged up and is questionable. Mike Daniels is also questionable for the Lions defense. They aren't that good to begin with, and now they are short handed. 

Both of these teams have given up far more big plays than the average team in the NFL. Expect a lot of explosive plays in this one. 

The weather looks good in this one, and the number has dropped a little. I think the over is a nice value here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon secondary hadn't really been tested until the last two games. They failed their test. Washington threw the ball easily on this Oregon secondary. Washington State put up a big number against them as well.

USC has many problems, but they still have some of the best receivers in the country. They also have a good quarterback to get them the ball. I think USC can pick up big plays in the air against Oregon here.

The USC defense is allowing 5.81 yards per play. The Trojans have allowed a whopping 127 plays of 10 yards or more on the season (112th in the country). Oregon's offense is good on the ground and through the air. They should move the ball with ease as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats offense has been historically bad this year. Northwestern has played 7 games so far this year. They have scored 10 points or less in five of those games. 

Indiana's defense isn't great, but it has been much better than I expected. The Hoosiers rank 34th in the nation in yards per play allowed. 

Northwestern only has 10 plays of 20 yards or more in 7 games. That is easily worst in the nation. The Wildcats have absolutely no passing game, and the running game isn't very good.

Indiana's offense has slowed their pace drastically this year. The Hoosiers will go up against a very solid Northwestern defense here. The Wildcats rank 44th in yards per play allowed despite playing a very tough schedule.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Oregon State is much better on offense than many realize. Jake Luton has done a nice job under center, and they have a pretty good ground game as well. This offense was quieted down by Cal and Utah recently, but now they go against a very weak defense in Arizona.

Arizona is playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the Pac 12. The Wildcats rank 18th in the nation in yards per play, so offense hasn't been the problem for much of the season. 

Arizona just fired defensive coordinator Marcel Yates, but I don't think there is a quick fix for their defensive woes. The Wildcats are giving up 6.2 yards per play.

Oregon State's defense isn't much better. They are allowing 5.89 yards per play.

Oregon State and Arizona both play quickly, and the offenses have clear advantages in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes play at the 129th pace in the country out of 130 teams. The Utes also run the ball on 65% of their offensive plays. Utah is a grind it out team. They will use their offensive line to try to wear you down a little bit at a time over the course of the game. 

Washington isn't likely to get much at all on the ground in this one. Utah is second in the country in yards per carry allowed. The Huskies offense has been inconsistent this season. I wouldn't expect them to be able to consistently put together good drives against this elite Utah defense. 

Washington also plays slowly. The Huskies rank 92nd in the country in pace of play. 

The Huskies defense has been much better in recent seasons at home, and I think they'll stay in this game. Utah is the better team though and I think they dictate the flow of this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks continue to push the tempo. Arkansas has played a lot of good defenses so far this year. The Razorbacks have faced Auburn and Alabama in the last two weeks. Those defenses will shut a lot of offenses down. 

Arkansas isn't good offensively, but Mississippi State is really bad on defense. The Bulldogs were great on defense last year, but they had to replace nearly everyone- and it hasn't gone well. Mississippi State ranks 111th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Mississippi State has already played three games that finished with a total of 66 or higher. Two of their last four games finished at 79 points total.

These are the 12th and 13th ranked defenses in the SEC. Expect the two offenses to have quite a bit of success.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Colorado State's offense has been far better than most people realize this year. Patrick O'Brien is quietly dominating at quarterback for the Rams. He has completed 61% of his passes and has 1,716 yards despite starting the season on the bench. The Rams have 10 plays of 60 yards or more this season, which is best in the nation. 

What is UNLV's defensive weakness? They can't keep the opposition in front of them. UNLV has been beaten deep many times this year. The Rebels have allowed 27 plays of 30 yards or more already this season (127th in the country). 

UNLV has played several teams who consistently have low scoring games this year, and that has skewed their overall point totals down. They have already played Northwestern, Wyoming (they had a high scoring game here), Vanderbilt, and San Diego State.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Charlotte's offense has been excellent this year. The new coaching staff deserves all kinds of credit. Charlotte was a bottom ten offense in the country for many years in a row. This year, Charlotte ranks 23rd in the country in yards per play. The 49ers have an impressive 48 plays of 20 yards or more already this year. 

MTSU has found a pretty good quarterback in Asher O'Hara. The Blue Raiders running game has gotten going in a big way the last couple games. MTSU is averaging 5.47 yards per carry (12th in the nation). The Blue Raiders can do enough through the air to keep teams honest.

Both of these defenses are really weak. MTSU ranks 103rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. Charlotte ranks 116th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Look for a lot of big plays both ways here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas Jayhawks have turned up the tempo in a big way. In the middle of the year, they decided to change the way this offense was run. Their last four games have all finished with at least 65 points total. Kansas' offense is much improved compared to a year ago. I'm really impressed with the job Les Miles has done thus far.

Kansas State is coming off that stunning win over Oklahoma. The Wildcats are thought of as a defensive team, but this defense hasn't been very good. Kansas State ranks 110th in the country in yards per play allowed. They have been very fortunate to not give up more points. This defense is a regression candidate.

I think this total has been bet down because recent games between these two have been so low. These are different teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The under is a whopping 33-9-1 in service academy matchups since 2005. It makes a lot of sense. These teams generally benefit on offense from the fact that the opposing defense isn't accustomed to seeing the triple option. That benefit isn't there when you are playing against another service academy. 

Additionally, these teams badly want to win matchups against each other. In games with this kind of high level of motivation, it tends to lead to lower scoring games.

Both teams play at such a slow pace that even if they move the ball down the field it should take a very long time. Even long drives with field goals are big positives for the under.

Air Force has been throwing the ball a little more this year, but they are expected to have the lead and with a lead they are good at running the ball and using up the clock.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* UMass is the worst defense in the country, and it isn't close. The Minutemen are allowing a whopping 7.71 yards per play this year. UMass has allowed 55 plays of 20 yards or more. They are equally bad against the run and the pass.

Liberty's offense is due for some positive regression. They rank 28th in the nation in yards per play, but they are 60th in the nation in points per game. The Flames get a great chance to put up a big number here.

The Liberty defense is allowing 6.12 yards per play. Liberty has had some red zone luck on defense or their opponents would have scored more. 

UMass surprisingly pushes the pace. The Minutemen rank 7th in the nation in tempo. Hugh Freeze wants his Liberty team to play fast as well. 

This number is several points too low.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Raiders offenses has had some really nice schemes planned this year. Jon Gruden is doing a good job putting Derek Carr in good spots. The Oakland running game is better than expected this year as well.

Oakland's defense is terrible. The Raiders are especially weak in the secondary. They just traded away Gareon Conley to the Texans. Conley was the most talented player the Raiders had in the secondary. Oakland was already getting torched by opposing quarterbacks, and it won't get better now. Oakland allowed Aaron Rodgers and a bunch of backup WR's to light them up last week. 

Houston's last three games have finished with 85, 55, and 53 points. The Texans defense is giving up a lot of big plays. Houston's offense is hitting a lot more big gainers through the air too. 

Oakland and Houston have both improved on the offensive line compared to last year. Look for both teams to move the ball with ease in the dome at Houston on Sunday.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This San Francisco 49ers defense is the real deal. Their defensive front is arguably the best in the NFL. San Francisco is doing a great job keeping everything in front of them. The 49ers have only allowed 12 plays of 20 yards or more all year long. That is the best in the NFL. 

Carolina's defense ranks 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Panthers don't have any clear weaknesses on this side of the football. With a solid group of linebackers, the Panthers should be good all year on defense.

The weather forecast for this game calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts of 35-40 mph during this game. That is enough wind to change the game a lot. That kind of weather tends to make teams far more conservative. That should mean more running clock and that clearly helps the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears defense is absolutely loaded. The Bears defense ranks 4th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Bears have faced the 10th toughest slate of offenses so far this year as well. The Bears have dominated on defense at times this year, and I think they will be very good here after losing a couple straight contests. They need this game. 

The Chargers offense is 12th in yards per play this year. They have faced the 28th toughest slate of defenses. This is easily the best defense they have had to go up against this year. 

The Bears offense is still a mess. Chicago has only 14 plays of 20 yards or more all season. They have only 1 play of 40 yards or more. The Chargers defense isn't great, but they have had poor fumble luck and they are good at preventing big plays. 

I don't see either team consistently driving up and down the field here.

There is expected to be a 10-12 mph sustained wind at Soldier Field with gusts up to 20 mph during this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are playing at the single fastest pace of any team in the country so far this year. Jordan Love and the Aggies offense haven't been quite as efficient as one would have expected, but I expect Love and the passing game to improve the rest of the year. 

Air Force has multiple quarterbacks who know the system well and who can run the triple option and have success. The Falcons have scored 38 and 32 points on Utah State the last two years. They have allowed 38 and 42 points in those games. This is a series where there have been a bunch of points.

The Air Force offense is much better this year than they have been in recent seasons. Air Force's defense has been weak against the pass this year. Love should have success against them. With the pace that this game will be played at this isn't a high total. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here calls for sustained winds of 15-18 mph with gusts of 25 mph. There is heavy rain expected as well. 

Michigan's defense is a top ten defense in the country. Notre Dame really hasn't faced many really good defenses this year. Ian Book is a question mark to me when he goes against good defenses.

Notre Dame's defense showed me a lot in their close loss to Georgia. This is a Fighting Irish defense that has allowed only 16 plays of 20 yards or more all year (5th best in the nation).

The weather here is significant enough that we should expect the two defenses to have the upper hand in this big game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Kentucky has played five games in the SEC. Only one of those games has gone over this total, and that game should have stayed under this number as well. It was their 29-21 loss to Florida. The Gators ran for a 76 yard touchdown with 30 seconds while they were leading 22-21. Kentucky's games since then have finished at 41, 31, 44, and 24 points. 

The Wildcats are averaging only 13 points per game in SEC play. They are without their starting quarterback, and it has definitely limited them on offense. Kentucky is playing the second best defense they have faced thus far in this game. Missouri ranks 6th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Tigers excel at not giving up big plays, and I don't think Kentucky will be able to consistently move down the field on Missouri.

The Tigers offense has been extremely inconsistent. They lack big playmakers on the outside, and the Tigers will be tested by a Kentucky defense that is improving as the season moves along. 

The weather forecast calls for heavy rain and winds of 15 mph in this one. That will make both offenses more conservative than normal. That is clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* MTSU is 50th in the nation in yards per play offensively. They are 106th in the nation in points per game. MTSU is playing at the fastest pace of any team in Conference USA in its conference games so far this year. The Blue Raiders should be more efficient over time. They have only 10 touchdowns in the red zone in 19 trips into the red zone this year. That should regress toward the mean. MTSU has been able to move the ball this year.

FIU started the season off slowly on offense, but they are averaging 6.38 yards per play in CUSA thus far. They have played at the 4th fastest pace of any team in league play this year. 

FIU's defense ranks 68th in yards per play allowed. MTSU ranks 118th in the nation in yards per play allowed. These two defenses have shown plenty of vulnerability.

This is a low total with two teams playing quickly and two offenses capable of scoring in bunches.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* North Texas likes to throw the football a lot, and I can't blame them since they have a star quarterback in Mason Fine. Charlotte's defense has been mediocre against the run, but they are terrible against the pass. The 49ers defense is 124th in QBR allowed, so they have been getting torched through the air. North Texas ranks 35th in the nation (2nd fastest in CUSA) in tempo as well.

Charlotte doesn't play fast, but they have hit a bunch of big gainers this year, especially in their running game. The 49ers already have 21 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. What's the weakness of the North Texas defense? Stopping the run. The Mean Green are allowing 4.77 yards per carry on the season.

I see a back and forth type of game as both teams put up a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals have a good offense this year, but they haven't faced many good defenses. They were shut down by a really good defense (Clemson) last week. Louisville has piled up huge offensive numbers against teams like Eastern Kentucky, Boston College, and Wake Forest. Virginia ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Virginia's offense ranks 122nd in tempo. The Cavs look to slow down the game. Virginia averages only 3.33 yards per carry, so they rely on the passing game quite a bit. 

The weather forecast here calls for upper 60's and 20 mph sustained winds with 1-2 inches of rain in the afternoon. This is enough to push me onto the under in this game. Look for a lot of running the ball and moving clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State defense is better than their overall statistics look so far this year. Michigan State has played a really tough slate of offenses so far this year. The Spartans took on Ohio State and Wisconsin in their last two games. Both of those offenses skewed the Michigan State defensive numbers. Michigan State's defense ranks 8th best in the nation when adjusted for strength of schedule faced.

Penn State ranks first in the nation in yards per carry allowed. The Nittany Lions front seven should be in the Michigan State backfield early and often here. Michigan State ranks 97th in the country in yards per play on offense. The Spartans have yet to show they can do much of anything on offense against quality defenses. Penn State's defense is very good.

The weather here is another plus for the under. A low 50's temperature with 15-20 mph winds and rain that picks up as the game goes on is in the forecast.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wyoming Cowboys play at the 110th fastest pace in the country (130 teams). Wyoming runs the ball consistently. The Cowboys have run the football on 76.6% of their offensive plays in conference games. They have very little passing attack, so the successful drives their offense has often take a very long time with a moving clock and small gains little by little.

Nevada plays at a slightly slower than average tempo. The Wolf Pack offense ranks 112th in the nation in yards per play. They haven't been able to find much to get them going offensively.

The early weather forecast calls for heavy winds in Laramie the whole week. Heavy wind played a big role in last week's game against New Mexico, and with winds things are likely to get even more conservative than normal for both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have a new offensive coordinator this year, and this team is much improved on the offensive end. Southern Miss is 15th in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Eagles put up 30 points against a quality LA Tech defense last week. They scored 47 points on Troy earlier this year. Their offensive numbers are pulled down a bit by being held in check by Alabama and Mississippi State, which is to be expected. This is a good Southern Miss offense.

Rice can stop the run pretty well, but the Owls aren't any good in the secondary. They rank 122nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. Southern Miss should be able to take advantage.

Southern Miss had a great defense last year, but this year they have a subpar defense. Southern Miss is 122nd in the nation in yards per play allowed, and they are 129th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Stephen Strasburg enters this game throwing the ball extremely well. Strasburg has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 12 straight starts. In 10 of those 12 games, Strasburg has allowed 2 runs or less. Also, he has been pitching late into the game. Strasburg has a whopping 43 strikeouts and one walk in his last five starts. 

Justin Verlander has been excellent all season. He pitched in some difficult spots in the last series, and the Yankees had the best lineup he faced this season. Verlander should bounce back on the big stage here. This is a guy with a bunch of experience pitching in big games, and the Nationals do have quite a few guys who strike out a lot.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this one. Eddings is the best under umpire in baseball. He has the highest called strike percentage in the majors in the last five years, and the highest strikeout/walk ratio as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Patriots are an under team to me until proven otherwise. Even in their game last week the under was the right side, but there were 3 special teams/defensive touchdowns to send the game just barely above the total.

New England has slowed their pace down dramatically this year and they are leaning on the running game more often. Tom Brady isn't surrounded by as many playmakers as he was in the past.

The Patriots defense this year is amazing. New England is a top two or three defense in the NFL (they might be the best). The Jets hit some big plays against the Cowboys, but I don't think as many of those big gainers will be available against this Pats defense.

The Jets play at a very slow pace and rely on the ground game a lot. We should see a lot of moving clock in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Eagles and Cowboys is always a heated contest. Philadelphia and Dallas both have quality quarterbacks and good skill position players around them. 

Carson Wentz has been a bit up and down in his time in the league, but he has a high upside and I think he is trending in the right direction. The Eagles have been able to get more big gainers of late, and I think they have some matchups they can exploit against a Dallas secondary that is badly banged up right now.

The Cowboys rank first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas hasn't cashed in touchdowns often enough, but I would expect that to improve. The Eagles secondary has been a problem all year long.

Jerome Boger's crew is calling this game. They are well known for defensive penalties and high scoring games. The over is 97-69 in Boger's crews contests all time. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Redskins have a new coach in Callahan, and he has made it clear he wants to run the football early and often. They will have a slow tempo and be far more conservative. The Redskins had 33 rushing plays on Sunday against the Dolphins. I expect to see them try to run it and keep the ball away from the 49ers offense.

San Francisco's defense has been amazing so far this year. Their performance against the Browns opened a lot of eyes, and then they backed it up with an even more impressive performance defensively against the Rams on Sunday. The 49ers defensive line is excellent and the secondary is one of the best in the NFL.

San Francisco has the highest percentage of running plays of any team in the NFL so far this year. They'll run the ball and eat up a lot of clock as well here. 

With a moving clock and a Redskins offense that is unlikely to be able to do much here, I see a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines are playing faster this year, but they aren't playing efficiently at all on offense. Michigan is 81st in the nation in yards per play. They are up against a Penn State defense that has been tremendous this season. The Nittany Lions rank 3rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. I think Michigan will have a hard time putting together sustained drives against this Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions have a big advantage with their defensive front against the Michigan offensive line.

Penn State's offense hasn't been consistent this year. The Nittany Lions have hit quite a few big plays, but they haven't shown the ability to put together long drives against good defenses. Michigan typically does a good job not giving up big plays, and this will present a challenge for Penn State.

Both teams run the ball a little more than the average team, so we'll see a lot of moving clock. I think this is a game where points will be at a premium. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Western Michigan is second in the nation in explosive plays of 20 yards or more. The Broncos have struggled in the red zone though, and this is a team that is due for some positive regression when it comes to points per game. Western Michigan's offense is elite, and they aren't playing against even decent defenses in the MAC.

Eastern Michigan has been even worse in the red zone than the Broncos. The Eagles also should have some positive regression on the way. The Eagles are throwing the ball around a lot more this year and Western Michigan's defense has allowed a whopping 108 plays of 10 yards or more already this year.

Both teams should have a lot of offensive success here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Washington State Cougars defense has been awful this year. Washington State is allowing 6.65 ypp on the year. Colorado's defense has been even worse. The Buffaloes are giving up 6.87 ypp. These two have been even worse on defense in Pac 12 play. Washington State is allowing more than 8 yards per play in the conference. 

Both teams like to throw the ball a lot and there should be a lot of possessions in this contest. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have the slowest tempo of any team in the nation. Utah ranks 130th out of 130 in pace of play. Utah also likes to run the football early and often. Almost 65% of Utah's offensive plays are running plays. 

Arizona State's defense has been beaten badly in the passing game this year, but they have been good against the run. They haven't played a running attack as good as Utah, so they will give up some yards here. Still, Utah will be taking a lot of time off the clock and if they get held to some field goals it is a big boost for the under.

Arizona State ranks 102nd in yards per carry this year, and Utah's defense ranks the best against the run of any defense they have faced. Michigan State also excels at stopping the run, and they shut down Arizona State's offense.

Neither passing game is very good to begin with, and the weather is a key factor here too. Rain is likely later in this game, and it is expected to be windy throughout the entire game.

With both teams playing slowly and running a lot, I think this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats have had a really hard time moving the ball against quality defenses this year. Kentucky is up against a great defense here in Athens. 

Georgia's offense is very good, but they do play at a slow pace and run the football a lot. That means that while they usually move the football a lot, they take a lot of time off the clock as well.

Kentucky plays at the 95th ranked tempo out of 130 teams in the nation. Georgia ranks 113th in tempo. Both of these teams prefer to run the ball when they can.

A tropical storm is expected to bring heavy rain to Athens earlier in the day on Saturday. The rain might stop before the game or it may be light rain here, but there will still be winds of 15 or 16 mph during this game. Additionally, this is a grass field and with rains of over an inch expected during the day on Saturday- the field might not be in very good shape. The weather is a plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores are just an awful team this year. Their star running back (Vaughn) is dinged up and is listed as questionable for this game. Vanderbilt has a quarterback controversy. Neither of the quarterbacks are good. 

Missouri is a quality team this year. The Tigers are led by a defense that is 6th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Missouri is excellent in pass coverage, and they are above average against the run. The Tigers offense is a run heavy offense.

Missouri is very likely to be in control of this game. We have some interesting references of spots where Missouri has a large lead. The Tigers have taken their foot off the gas and had low scoring second halves multiple times.

-Missouri led Troy 42-7 at halftime and the final score was 42-10.

-Missouri led West Virginia 31-0 at halftime and the final score was 38-7

-Missouri led SE Missouri State 37-0 at halftime and the final score was 50-0

Consistently they have had very low scoring 3rd and 4th quarters in games where they lead.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers put up 40 points last week with backup quarterback Jack Plummer at the helm and Rondale Moore out of the lineup. That was against a weak Maryland defense though. Purdue couldn't do anything against Penn State's defense, and I'll be surprised if they have much success here against a good Iowa defense.

Moore is one of the most electrifying players in the country, and him being out is a huge loss for Purdue. The Boilermakers rank 129th out of 130 in the country in yards per carry, so they don't have a running game to lean on. Iowa is 16th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Iowa's offense has some potential, but they play a pretty conservative brand of football. The Hawkeyes play at a slow pace and there shouldn't be too many possessions in this game as they grind things down when they are in the lead.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Syracuse offense is a mess this year. Tommy DeVito hasn't been nearly as good as expected in this offense, and now he is trying to play through an injury. DeVito plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the nation as well. Not a great combination when you are trying to play through an injury and avoid getting hit. Syracuse has allowed 26 sacks in only six games. 

The Pitt Panthers defense ranks second in the nation with 27 sacks so far this year. They are going to bring a ton of pressure on DeVito in this one, and I think the Syracuse offense will likely struggle with the Pitt defensive line.

The Pitt Panthers offense ranks 108th in yards per play this year. Kenny Pickett just hasn't looked like he is in a rhythm in the passing game. Pitt has been throwing it more this year, but the strength of this Syracuse defense is their secondary. 

Take the under in this one. 

*Note- I would play for this for 4 stars down to 51.5 and for a 3 star rating down to 50*

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves love to play fast. Arkansas State ranks 19th fastest out of 130 teams in the country in pace of play. Arkansas State has also averaged a whopping 7.77 yards per play in their two Sun Belt contests thus far.

Arkansas State's defense is awful though, and they are going to give up a lot here. The Red Wolves allowed a ridiculous 722 total yards against Georgia State. They also gave up 28 points and more than 500 yards against FCS level SIU. This is a really weak defense.

Louisiana's offense didn't look good against Appalachian State, but they have arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt. The Ragin' Cajuns scored a 47-43 win over Arkansas State last season.

Louisiana ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play on the season as a whole. These two offenses should have a lot of success.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Cowboys rank first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas has an above average offense, but they aren't the best offense in the NFL. They have played the weakest schedule of defenses of anyone in the NFL so far this year. Dallas has taken advantage of the Dolphins, Giants, and Redskins in 3 of their first 5 games. 

The New York Jets rank dead last in the NFL in yards per play. The Jets get Darnold back this weekend, but he isn't likely to fix this offense right away. Dallas' defense should come into this game upset after struggling last week against Green Bay. The Jets have the slowest pace of play in the NFL, and I expect them to try to run the ball a lot and keep the Dallas offense off the field.

The under is 26-10 in the Cowboys last 36 road games. 

With the move up during the week, I see value on the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals offense had a lot of success against Cincinnati last weekend. I don't think the Cardinals offense will be all that good against quality defenses this year, but I do think they'll have a lot of success against the bottom of the barrel defenses. 

The Atlanta Falcons secondary is an absolute nightmare. Dan Quinn's defense is blowing assignments and giving up way too many big plays. Kyler Murray had a confidence building game last weekend, and I expect him to have a good game here.

Arizona's secondary is a big problem as well. Matt Ryan and the Falcons still have a lot of weapons on the outside. Look for Ryan to find a lot of open receivers on Sunday afternoon in Arizona.

A lot of tempo in this one and this number is too low.

Take the over. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Wyoming offense isn't any good at all. They were able to run all over the UNLV defense a couple weeks ago, but I'm not going to let that make me think their offensive woes are fixed. Wyoming can't throw the ball, and San Diego State will just key in on the run here and force Chambers to beat them through the air. I don't think he can do it.

Ryan Agnew has been really bad at quarterback for San Diego State this year. San Diego State is 126th in offensive yards per play this year. They scored a whopping 6 points against Weber State and only 24 points against an awful Colorado State defense. 

San Diego State's games this year have finished with final totals of: 6 points, 37 points, 41 points, 40 points, and 44 points. Two of Wyoming's games have finished at 37 points.

Take the under. TOP Rated play. 

*3 Star Play Under* Notre Dame's offensive statistics are skewed so far this year. Notre Dame has piled up big offensive numbers against a couple terrible defenses. Against the decent or better defenses they have faced, Ian Book and company just haven't been that good. USC isn't a great defense, but they are a lot better than some of the other units Notre Dame has played against.

USC is reliant on the passing game, and the Notre Dame secondary is excellent. Slovis is expected back for USC here, but I expect USC's passing attack to be less effective than normal because of the defense they are facing and the weather.

The weather here calls for 15 mph sustained winds with gusts of 25 mph through the game. This is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Charlotte's offense has really impressed this year. Their coaching staff is doing a tremendous job turning this team that was previously hapless on offense into a very good offensive squad. The 49ers are averaging 6.54 yards per play (26th in the country). Charlotte has been breaking big runs consistently. That's important here because the FIU front seven has been really weak against the run. Look for Charlotte's ground game to do damage here.

FIU's offense is finally starting to come around. They were an underachiever early in the year, but this offense has a lot of talent. Charlotte is way too reliant on their aggressive pass rush. FIU's offensive line grades out as above average, and I think FIU can burn Charlotte for being too aggressive on defense in this matchup.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a completely different team than they were a year ago. Southern Miss is now weak on defense, and they are much improved on offense in their new scheme.

North Texas has an elite quarterback in Mason Fine, and he is up against a weak Southern Miss secondary. Look at the numbers Troy's passing game put up against Southern Miss. This looks like a great spot for North Texas to pick up their production on offense.

I had this game projected at 63 points, so I'm glad to grab this one at 58.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* MTSU's defense has been shredded all season long. Marshall may have only scored 13 points last week, but the Thundering Herd put up 578 yards of offense. MTSU's defense hasn't shown me anything that would make me confident at all about their ability to slow down Florida Atlantic here. MTSU is 120th in the nation in yards per play allowed. 

Florida Atlantic's offense started the year struggling against good competition, but the Owls offense has been great in their last three games. Lane Kiffin's team should put up a lot of big plays here.

MTSU has been good on offense. The Blue Raiders passing attack should have a big edge on the FAU secondary which has been a clear weakness.

Both of these defenses have been fortunate in the red zone. They have been getting away with forcing teams to kick field goals or turning them over in the red zone. I expect defensive regression in points per game allowed for both teams.

Take the over. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans defense looked dominant in the first quarter last weekend against Ohio State. Ohio State ended up looking great offensively in the second quarter before struggling again in the second half. That was a weird game, but Michigan State did show they have a lot of talent on the front seven defensively.

Wisconsin is a really good team, but they don't have the offensive balance Ohio State has. Wisconsin is going to run the ball over and over. Wisconsin's Jack Coan doesn't impress me in the passing game. The Badgers will lean heavily on the running game and use up a bunch of clock. Michigan State will give up some yards here to a great Wisconsin running game, but I do think they'll hold their own.

The Michigan State offense is really weak. Wisconsin is first in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. The Spartans don't have an explosive offense at all, and I don't think they'll be able to consistently put together long drives against Wisconsin.

The weather forecast here calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph during the game. This is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Over* For the last couple weeks, Clemson has heard a lot about how they aren't as good as they were expected to be. Dabo Swinney mentioned that he is getting tired of hearing it. The Clemson offense has been a bit of a disappointment. Here is a great chance for them to get back on track.

Florida State plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the country, and Clemson has played quickly this year as well. The Seminoles defense has allowed a lot of big plays in the passing game, and I think Trevor Lawrence and company are in for a big day.

I see Clemson putting up a big number here and Florida State doing enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Mississippi State Bulldogs aren't even close to what they were a year ago on defense. I think the market has been slow to adjust to their defensive weaknesses. Mississippi State was a top five defense in the country last year. They rank 104th in the nation in yards per play this year. The Bulldogs have allowed 31 plays of 20 yards or more. 

Tennessee isn't a good offense, but I think Maurer gives them a better chance at quarterback than Guarantano. The Volunteers have turned it over too much this year, and if they can hold onto the ball a little better, I think they can score against teams like Mississippi State.

Mississippi State's offense should improve the rest of the way. The Bulldogs have enough weapons to be putting up better numbers than they have thus far. 

Both teams should put up a decent number of points in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a rivalry game in northwest Ohio. The weather calls for sustained winds of 16 mph and gusts to 28 mph during this game. That is plenty to change the game. Neither of these offenses are as explosive as they have been in the past. 

The Bowling Green offense ranks 125th in the nation in yards per play. Toledo is much better offensively, but they have shown that they are willing to slow down the game a lot once they have a lead. They should have a lead here throughout.

This is a very high total for a high wind game. These windy unders have treated me well in the past, and I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots have been a great under team this year. The Patriots defense is a top two or three unit in the NFL. The Patriots haven't allowed more than 14 points in a game all year. The game they allowed 14 points in was when the Jets scored twice on defense. In all, the Patriots defense has only allowed 20 points in five games. 

With the Giants likely playing without Saquon Barkley again, it's hard to see Daniel Jones and the Giants having much success here. They struggled badly to get going against the Vikings in their last game.

The Patriots offense has slowed the pace down a lot from last year. They are also playing more conservatively. The Giants defense isn't good, but they have at least improved in recent weeks.

The weather forecast here calls for possible showers and gusty winds. That should make both teams more conservative, and it is definitely a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Applachian State Mountaineers take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in one of the best midweek games we have had in a small conference in quite some time.

This game means everything to both teams. These are two of the top three teams in the Sun Belt. 

There's no doubt both teams have been scoring machines so far this year, so you can understand a high total here. Still, this is an extremely high total for a game between two teams who run the ball often and don't play at a fast pace.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jack Flaherty has been amazing in the second half of the season for the Cardinals. Flaherty had a 0.71 ERA in the month of August. He followed that up with a 0.82 ERA in the month of September. Flaherty has been the best pitcher in baseball down the stretch. He has been consistently pitching deep into the game as well. Batters are hitting a miserable .142 against him in the second half of the season.

Mike Foltynewicz has been inconsistent, but he definitely finished the season off strong. He pitched great in his start a few days ago against the Cardinals. He has a 2.65 ERA in his last 10 starts. He's up against a Cardinals lineup that has been very inconsistent this year.

With everything on the line here, I expect all the top pitchers to be available. I think both starters throw the ball well here and we see a tight low scoring game.

The under is 13-3-2 in Flaherty's last 18 starts. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Over* We finally get a good Monday Night Football game, and I expect there to be quite a few points scored on both sides in this one. 

While the 49ers defensive numbers look great so far this year, they have faced an extremely weak slate of offenses thus far. They faced Tampa Bay in their first game in a new offense. They faced a terrible Bengals team. They also faced the Steelers in Mason Rudolph's first game as a starter on the road. The 49ers defense isn't bad, but they aren't nearly as good as their statistics look so far this season.

Cleveland's defense has faced a slightly below average slate of offenses as well. The Browns were able to take advantage of the Jets without Darnold. They were torched by the Titans earlier this year. They gave up quite a bit to the Ravens last week as well.

The Browns offense is better than they have shown so far this year. Baker Mayfield should improve with his accuracy at least to some degree, and I would expect bigger games from OBJ. 

San Francisco hasn't been slowed down consistently by anyone so far this year, and I really like this 49ers offense. They are a well-coached unit and they have enough talent at the skill positions to do some damage.

Jerome Boger's crew is doing this game, and that is great news for over bettors. The over is 97-67 in this crew's games. This is the best over crew in the NFL.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots have a top three defense in the NFL. The Patriots have allowed a grand total of 13 points on the defensive side of the ball. They haven't played a really good offense yet, but they won't play a good offense in this one either. 

Washington is banged up on the offensive line. The Redskins went to Dwayne Haskins Jr. on Sunday and it didn't go well at all. Haskins may or may not start here, but regardless of who starts in this game I don't see Washington scoring more than 10 points or so. This Patriots defenses is good at avoiding giving up the big play, and I don't see Washington putting together long drives on them.

The Patriots offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL in yards per play. By the end of the year, they should be better, but right now they aren't better than mediocre on offense. They are calling a lot more safe play calls, and Sony Michel is getting the ball a lot. The Redskins will give up points here because their defense isn't very good. Still, the Patriots have shown they are willing to slow down the tempo this year and run the ball which helps the under a lot here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks defense ranks 4th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Oregon is far better defensively than most people realize. Cal wasn't good on offense with Garbers at quarterback, and they are even worse on offense with Modster under center. I would expect Cal to have very little success on offense in this matchup.

The Cal defense is a strong one. They rank 36th in the nation in yards per play allowed, and that is despite the fact that they have played some good offenses this year. Cal's defense is a top 25 or top 30 unit in the country. 

Oregon plays on Friday this coming week, and the Ducks may be happy to slow things down with a big lead in the second half here.

I see Cal having a hard time getting past 10 points or so here. A hard fought game between two good defenses.

Take the under. 

 *4 Star Play* Ole Miss' offense has been impressive in recent weeks. The Rebels already have a whopping 33 plays of 20 yards or more so this has been a really explosive offense. They also rank 10th in the nation in tempo. Ole Miss will continue to push the tempo here, and I don't see this weak Vanderbilt defense doing a good slowing them down. Vanderbilt has allowed 34 plays of 20 yards or more this season.

Vanderbilt's offensive numbers don't look very good so far this year, but they have played some excellent defenses. The Commodores offense should be good enough to put up a decent number against a weak Ole Miss defense here.

I had this number in the mid 60's. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rice Owls have done a good job staying in games by running the football consistently and using up the play clock. Rice is much better defensively than they were a year ago as well. The coaching staff knows they don't have much of a chance at all in high scoring games, and they are doing a nice job dictating the tempo. 

UAB's offense is way down from the last couple years. The offensive line went from a strength to a weakness. The Blazers still have a very strong defense, and Bill Clark is a defensive minded coach as well.

Expect a lot of running plays and a slow tempo.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* When these two teams get together, I like to look for the under. Both of these offenses usually have the upper hand against a normal opponent because that opponent isn't accustomed to facing the triple option. That isn't the case when they play each other though. 

Both of these defenses see almost exactly the same offense they will face in this game every day in practice. That gives the defense a strong advantage.

Also, both of these teams run the ball at such a high rate and play at a slow tempo. We should see some drives that take a ton of time off the game clock. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense has really impressed me so far this year. MTSU ranks 45th in the nation in yards per play despite facing Michigan, Iowa, and Duke in three of their four games thus far. They are airing it out eraly and often, and Marshall's secondary has been really weak so far this year. 

Marshall has been doing damage on the ground this season. Marshall ranks 17th in the nation in yards per carry. MTSU ranks 122nd in yards per carry allowed. The Thundering Herd have multiple running options in the backfield at all times, and I would expect some big plays from them here. 

Both teams prefer to play at a pretty brisk pace normally, and I think there will be enough possessions here.

The hot temperature (90 degrees) is helpful too- overs have done well in hot weather games in the past.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I view both of these teams as having clearly better defenses than offenses. Iowa State has had some unfortunate bounces and they have had poor luck on red zone defense. The Cyclones are 23rd in the nation in yards per play allowed though, and they have played some solid offenses. TCU ranks 9th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Gary Patterson's team is almost always well prepared defensively. 

There is bad weather in the forecast here, which is clearly another positive. With wind and rain that should make both of these offenses even more conservative and predictable. 

Look for a close low scoring battle here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins finished second in the majors in weighted on base average. The New York Yankees finished second in wOBA. These are two elite offenses. The Yankees are much healthier than they have been most of the year, and this is a scary good offense. The Twins have a .361 wOBA against lefties, which is much better than their .342 wOBA against right handed pitching.

Jose Berrios has drastic home/road splits in his career. He has allowed a .287 wOBA at home. He has allowed a .330 wOBA on the road. Berrios has also been much better in the first half of the season (.293 wOBA allowed) than in the second half (.328 wOBA allowed) in his career.

James Paxton is inconsistent. He has a high upside, but he also has some blowup potential. 

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire, and he ranks as one of the top five over umpires in my umpire database over the last five years.

With these two strong offenses and a relatively low total, I like the value on the over.

Take the over here.