Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats have a way of making games ugly and low scoring. Northwestern's defense isn't quite as strong as it has been in most recent seasons, but I do think they will improve in Big Ten play as they usually do under defensive minded Pat Fitzgerald.

The Northwestern offense lost their starting running back, and against a good defensive front like Nebraska that should be a problem. Ryan Hilinski played well against Ohio last week, but Ohio is terrible defensively. This is a big step up in class against a Nebraska defense that allowed only 12 first downs last week against a solid Michigan State team.

Nebraska is fairly conservative on offense. They will run the football most of the time. I expect them to play from the lead and they have shown to get much more run heavy when playing from the lead.

The last couple years these two teams have played games that ended 13-10 and 21-13. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames haven't been quite as good offensively this year. The offensive line has been weak in pass blocking. Liberty has already allowed 14 sacks already this year. 

The Flames have also slowed their pace down drastically. A couple years ago this team was playing very quickly, but they sit 121st in the nation in tempo so far this year. They are running the football on 64% of their offensive snaps.

UAB ranks 128th in the nation in tempo. The Blazers are running the ball on 68% of their offensive snaps. The Blazers are going up against a Liberty defensive front that is 20th in the nation in yards per carry allowed so far this year. The Liberty secondary is a bit weak, but their front seven defensively is very solid.

With two teams playing very slowly and running the ball a lot, we should see a lot of running clock in this game. 

Look for a tight low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave have reinvented their offense with a new offensive coordinator. They now play extremely fast. Tulane ranks 8th in the country in tempo so far this year. The Green Wave will push the pace here and try to get as many possessions as possible. 

East Carolina ranks 119th in yards per play allowed this year. PFF grades them as the 25th worst defense in the country. Tulane should get a lot of big gainers in this one. 

Tulane's defense is struggling a bit because of their faster paced offense. The Green Wave rank 95th in yards per play allowed and PFF grades them as the 20th worst defense in the country. 

East Carolina ranks 46th in the nation in tempo so they play fast as well. The Pirates have enough playmakers to get up and down the field against Tulane here.

The tempo here should be very fast and we have two bottom 25 defenses in the country.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Tanner Morgan looks lost at QB. I don’t think PJ Fleck trusts him now and it is hard to blame him. Turnover worthy play on 6 percent of plays so far this year. In Minnesota’s last 3 games, Morgan has 17, 17, and 13 passes attempted. He likely won't throw it many times here. That kind of pace with a ton of running plays is going to bleed a lot of clock. They rank 129th out of 130 teams in tempo in the country, so Minnesota is playing so slowly.

Purdue’s offense ranks 87th in yards per play this year. David Bell is a superstar WR for Purdue and he is questionable for this game. Purdue averages just 2.91 ypc and they are shorthanded when it comes to weapons on offense. The Purdue defense has been impressive this year. The Boilermakers are 30th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 5th in the nation in success rate allowed on defense. Minnesota isn't likely to be efficient against this group.

The Minnesota defense gave up only 1.4 yards per play against Colorado and only 3.1 yards per play against Bowling Green last week.

There are winds of 12-15 mph and a slight chance of showers in the forecast.

Take the under here.

*4 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers have made a habit of putting up big point totals against Green Bay. San Francisco has scored 30, 37, 37, and 17 points in the last four meetings between these two teams. The time when they scored 17 points was last year when Nick Mullens was the starter. Jimmy G is back and he looks pretty good to start the season. Kittle is healthy and he has absolutely crushed this Green Bay defense time and time again. 

This Green Bay defense has been worse than last year's version so far. They have very little pass rush and the secondary is a question mark. 

San Francisco's secondary is weaker than it was a year ago. The 49ers also don't have very many reliable pass rushers. 

Both Green Bay and San Francisco's defenses have gotten to play the Detroit Lions, who are one of the weaker offenses in the NFL. 

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense got going late in the Monday night win over the Lions. I think they'll have success again here. Can Green Bay stop San Francisco? I see nothing that would make me think they can.

Jerome Boger's crew is officiating this game. The over is a whopping 114-79 in Boger's games (59.1% overs). 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals defense has impressed me so far this year. The Bengals have clearly upgraded their secondary, and their linebackers who were completely raw last year are now experienced enough to hold their own. Cincinnati held the Bears to 3.4 yards per play today. 

The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line was a problem against the Bears. They were struggling to get a push, and Joe Burrow was under too much pressure. The Steelers strong front seven are likely to make things very tough on the Bengals offensive front here. 

Pittsburgh has scored just 23 and 17 points in their first two games. Against Buffalo, they got a punt block for a TD. This is a Steelers offense that has yet to find itself this season.

The Steelers still have a very good defense that will be very tough for most teams to move the ball on.

This is a divisional rivalry and these AFC North contests have been good under bets. Totals of 41 points or higher in an AFC North matchup are 69-48-1 to the under in the last 118 meetings (59% unders).

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are a mess defensively so far this year, but they are much improved on offense. Austin Kendall is a transfer from Oklahoma and West Virginia and he has fit into the Skip Holtz offense perfectly this year. LA Tech has now played 3 games and the lowest scoring contest was 35-34. 

LA Tech has picked up their pace this year. They rank 33rd in tempo this season. The Bulldogs rank 12th in the nation in offensive explosiveness, so they are getting a bunch of big gainers. They are up against a defense that has allowed the 7th worst opponent QBR this year so far. The Bulldogs aren't likely to have any trouble moving the ball through the air with Kendall under center here.

North Texas always plays very fast. They rank 9th in the nation in tempo so far this season. The Mean Green haven't been able to put up too many points, but they did play a couple pretty good defenses in SMU and UAB. North Texas also has 8 trips into the red zone this year and they only have 2 TD's in those 8 trips into the red zone. That should positively regress over time.

A game with a lot of tempo and two defenses rated in the bottom 15 in the country in yards per play allowed. I think there will be quite a bit of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys ran the ball on more than 80 percent of their offensive snaps last week against Boise State. Mike Gundy doesn't trust Spencer Sanders, and I can't blame him. Sanders was disappointing last year with Wallace and Stoner on the outside. Now, he doesn't have the same type of weapons to throw the football to. 

Oklahoma State is averaging 4.82 yards per play (108th in the nation) so far this year. Kansas State is ninth in the country this year at yards per carry allowed at only 1.93 ypc allowed. The Cowboys aren't likely to be able to get a lot of big gainers against this Wildcats defensive front.

Oklahoma State's defense is arguably the best defense they have ever had under Mike Gundy. Even with Ford injured, this Cowboys defense is nasty. They are giving up only 2.58 yards per carry on the season. The Cowboys go up against a Kansas State offense that is certainly more limited with Howard at quarterback. Skylar Thompson is far more capable through the air. That should allow Oklahoma State to hone in on stopping the run.

A ton of running the football in this one. I think both defenses do a good enough job slowing down the run that this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Stanford Cardinal are going to be without all kinds of guys in this one. Stanford will be without three of their primary four running backs. They'll be without their star safety. Two of their cornerbacks are doubtful as well.

Stanford has been a pass heavy team all year, and I would expect them to be even more pass heavy in this game. The Cardinal do appear to have an edge in the passing game. UCLA ranks just 68th in PFF's coverage grade. Stanford ranks in the top 30 in the country in passing efficiency with Tanner McKee at quarterback. McKee has done a nice job stepping in for the Cardinal.

UCLA's offense ran the ball easily against their first two opponents before Fresno State slowed them down last week. The Bruins have a massive running edge here against a Stanford defense that has allowed a whopping 5.85 yards per carry (125th out of 130 teams) on the year thus far. I think Chip Kelly's team will have a big day on the ground here. DTR has thrown downfield more this year. UCLA has good enough receivers to take advantage of Stanford's injuries in the secondary.

This contest was 34-34 at the end of regulation last year. I think both offenses have the advantage again this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves defense has been absolutely awful this year. How bad? They are dead last (130th out of 130 teams) in yards per play allowed this year. They have given up 7.52 yards per play. They allowed a whopping 680 yards against Memphis. They then allowed 598 yards against a very questionable Washington offense last week. 

Tulsa put up 501 yards of offense against Ohio State. They should have scored more than 20 points in that game. Their passing attack has looked much better in the last few quarters. While Ohio State's defense isn't good now, it is certainly better than the Arkansas State defense. Tulsa should hit some big gainers. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 16 plays of 30 yards or more this season already.

The Arkansas State offense is playing at the 12th fastest pace in the country. Tulsa isn't nearly as good defensively this year without Zaven Collins. Arkansas State is throwing it around this year. They are throwing the ball on 62% of offensive plays. The Tulsa secondary is questionable, and the pass rush is much weaker this year.

This is a hot weather game and that has been good for overs in the past. Games with a temperature of 84 degrees or higher and less than 10 mph wind (with a total of 65 or less) are 59% to the over since 2005.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank 3rd in the nation in tempo. Marshall is using only 20.33 seconds between plays. The Thundering Herd are also averaging 7.58 yards per play so far this year. Marshall's offense is throwing the ball on 55% of their plays and they are taking plenty of shots downfield. Grant Wells has looked very good so far this season.

Appalachian State ranks 82nd (just a bit slow) in tempo. The Mountaineers are averaging an impressive 6.60 yards per play on offense. Chase Brice has been a better fit in the offense than most expected (including myself). 

The Marshall defense looks good on paper, but they just gave up 42 points to E Carolina, who was the first decent offense they faced. Marshall has allowed only 7 red zone scores on 12 trips for opponents. Five forced turnovers in the red zone isn't sustainable out of 12 attempts. Marshall's defense is due for negative regression to the mean.

With the pace this is played at being a Marshall game and a total only in the mid 50's, I have to side with the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have a new faster paced offense with the new coaching staff this year. Justin Herbert is a perfect fit for this offense at the quarterback spot. He has plenty of weapons surrounding him, and the Chargers have upgraded the offensive line position a great deal. Rashawn Slater looks like a star already. The Chargers racked up 424 yards of offense against Washington last week. They go against a much worse Dallas defense in this one. 

Dallas isn't good at all on defense, and now they will be without their best defensive player, DeMarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys secondary is a major problem area, and now they have a much weaker pass rush. 

The Chargers are expected to be without cornerback Chris Harris in this game. Justin Jones is also doubtful on the defensive line. The Chargers defense isn't a bad unit, but it is far from dominant. 

The Dallas Cowboys offense has all sorts of weapons and Dak Prescott looked good in the season opener. Dallas should be able to score and score quickly against most teams this year. Can their defense get any stops? That is a tougher question. They'll need to win shootouts more than likely.

This game is indoors and early season games between non divisional foes in a dome have been good over bets long term.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals play at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. Arizona torched Tennessee for 38 points last week. The Titans offense was a no show in that game. I think Minnesota's offense will show up more than the Titans did a week ago.

Arizona does have a very good pass rush, but the Cardinals secondary is extremely weak. They face a top 3 group of wide receivers in the NFL in this game. Dalvin Cook is also a great pass catcher out of the backfield. Kirk Cousins has all sorts of weapons around him.

Kyler Murray looks great this year. He is healthy and looks extremely mobile. This is a guy who is extremely tough to defend. The Cardinals have DeAndre Hopkins and multiple very fast wideouts to hit the home run ball with. The Vikings secondary is another questionable secondary.

The over is 55.5% in dome games in the NFL in the first two months of the season in the last six years. This is on the fast track and I expect to see some big plays here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New York Jets offense looked very weak against the questionable Carolina Panthers defense last week. The Jets had just 8 points going into their final drive of the game. The Panthers sat back in prevent and the Jets then went on a touchdown drive and the game finished 19-14. Even with that long TD drive at the end of the game, the Jets only finishing with 4.2 yards per play. 

The New England Patriots defense is much better than the Carolina defense. It would be very surprising if the Jets can score much here. 

On the other side, the Patriots are going to lean on the run game more this year once again, and the Jets are a pretty good run defense. I think this is the type of game where a Patriots lead and then conservative play calling and running the clock is very reasonable to expect.

New England is a well coached defense and they should bother Wilson in this game. Expect them to bring pressure after him here. 

The Jets defensive coaching staff is pretty good too, and I don't think the Patriots are anxious to hurry up and take a bunch of big risks.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys offense is way down this year. Spencer Sanders no longer has Wallace or Stoner to throw to on the outside. The Cowboys still have some good running backs, but the offensive line play has been very questionable. In fact they rank 108th in run blocking grade according to PFF. 

Boise State's running game has been terrible this year as well. The Broncos are averaging 2.24 ypc on the season. How bad is the Boise State offensive front? They rank 122nd in PFF in run blocking grade. That is behind teams like USF and UConn. 

The weather could be a factor here as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are expected for this game. There is also a chance for some rain. That could make the two teams more conservative on offense, and that helps the under.

Oklahoma State has somehow been amazing in the red zone (7 trips and 7 scores- including 6 TD's). That should regress to the mean. This isn't a good offense right now. Boise State has allowed 50% on third down conversions for their opponents, but I think that improves over the course of the year.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons defense looks amazing right now. Why? They have gone up against the Lafayette Leopards and a terrible Navy offense. Navy runs the same style offense Air Force does, and they frankly aren't any good at it right now either. 

Air Force's defense may be pretty good this year, but they definitely aren't this good. I'll look to try to take advantage of the fact that their defensive numbers are skewed going into this game.

Utah State is a much improved offense with Blake Anderson as head coach and Logan Bonner at quarterback. The Aggies are playing at the 10th fastest pace in the country. They are really getting off a lot of snaps quickly. Utah State should test Air Force with their solid running game and their ability to get the ball out quickly in the passing game.

On the other side, Air Force is an excellent running team. Utah State has allowed 4.28 ypc so far on the year and that was against Washington State and North Dakota. The Aggies clearly have some issues on the defensive end, and I would expect Air Force to be able to take advantage of those weaknesses.

This is an awfully low total for a game involving a team that plays as fast as Utah State. These aren't great defenses either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bo Nix has drastic home and road splits in his career. According to Sports Reference, Nix has thrown 15 TD's and 1 INT at home in his career. On the road he has 9 TD's and 10 INT's. He only has a 54% completion percentage on the road. Nix is playing at Happy Valley in front of a Whiteout crowd that will be amped up for this game. A very tough spot for an opposing quarterback.

Auburn is very likely to try to run the ball early and often with Tank Bigsby and company. They will likely get some yards, but I don't see them gashing Penn State for a bunch of big gainers here. The Nittany Lions have been tremendous on defense so far this year. They allowed only 3.8 yards per play in Madison in a win over Wisconsin.

Sean Clifford is inconsistent at quarterback for Penn State as well. Clifford is going up against an excellent secondary in Auburn. The Tigers likely have a top 5 secondary in the country. Penn State ranks 89th in the country in explosiveness on offense, so they aren't likely to be hitting many big plays here either. 

Two good defenses who do a good job denying big plays and questionable quarterbacks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals are in the thick of the race for the NL Wildcard. This is a game that means a lot to both teams.

The San Diego Padres have picked a bad time to go into the worst offensive slump of the season for this team. The Padres have scored 1 run or less in 5 of their last 10 games. They scored only two last night. They now have to go up against Adam Wainwright, who has been throwing the ball really well. 

Wainwright has a sparkling 1.24 ERA in his last 7 starts. He has thrown a shutout in 4 of those 7 starts. 

Yu Darvish starts for the Padres. He had a terrible outing in his last start, but the Cardinals aren't very good against right handed pitching, and Darvish does have tremendous stuff.

Phil Cuzzi is the umpire here at home plate, and that's a great thing for the under. Cuzzi has a very high strikes called percentage and in his career the under has hit in 55.1% of his games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd are playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. That is despite the fact that they have played in two epic blowouts against Navy and North Carolina A&T. This team just keeps their foot on the gas and scores as much as they can. 

East Carolina has played Appalachian State and South Carolina so far this year. Those two teams rank 96th and 102nd in the country in tempo. They now go up against a team with a better offense and a team that is willing to play much faster. The Pirates are likely to give up quite a few points here. 

East Carolina's offense should improve over the course of the season, and both Appalachian State and South Carolina do have solid defenses. Marshall's defense is good, but it isn't as good as it has been in recent years.

The pace of this game makes me think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen once again have one of the worst defenses in the country. UMass allowed 51 points against Pitt and 45 against Boston College. Boston College scored 45 points in that game despite their star QB (Jurkovec) going down early with an injury. 

Eastern Michigan is a good passing team. I would expect them to be able to throw the ball with ease against UMass. UMass has allowed 14 plays of 20 yards or more in just two games. 

The UMass offense is improving. They put up 28 points against a pretty decent Boston College defense last week. I think they can score here against a middle of the road or worse MAC defense in Eastern Michigan. 

A total set this low with two weak defenses is a good look to the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The biggest negative of taking the under in a game between Florida State and Wake Forest is you know there will be a fast tempo from both teams. Still, a total in the 60's between two inefficient offenses makes me like the under here.

Wake Forest is averaging only 5.88 yards per play on the year (66th in the nation). They have played Old Dominion and Norfolk State. These are two awful defenses. The Demon Deacons are unlikely to be able to run on a Florida State defense that is giving up only 2.34 yards per carry on the season. They'll need to air it out. Sam Hartman is a pretty good quarterback, but Wake Forest is a short passing attack and they are unlikely to hit many big plays down the field.

Florida State's offense ranks 86th in yards per play so far this year. This is still a bad offensive line that holds this team back. The Seminoles are unlikely to fix their problems on the offensive line anytime soon. Wake Forest can bring some pressure and I think they'll have success doing so in this game.

This projects as a sloppy game between two improving defenses and two offenses who lack identity.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes defense is very strong led by linebacker Nate Landman. Colorado gave Texas A&M's offense a really hard time last week in Boulder. This unit is especially strong in the front seven. That's what you want when you are about to go up against the Minnesota Golden Gophers offense. 

Minnesota relies heavily on the running game. They are without star running back Ibrahim now, but I still expect them to be a solid running team through the season. They lack star wide receivers now that Bateman is gone. Morgan is a solid quarterback, but they want to rely on the running game most.

The Colorado offense is still trying to find itself. The Buffaloes lack a downfield passing game and that makes things easier on the opposition. 

Both Minnesota and Colorado are running the ball on almost 70% of their offensive plays so far this season. A bunch of running the football means a lot of running clock. Minnesota ranks 123rd out of 130 in the nation in tempo. Colorado is also pretty slow at 88th. I think we see a lot of slow drives with the clock ticking away here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers host the Virginia Tech Hokies in what should be a good contest in Morgantown on Saturday afternoon.

Virginia Tech's performance on defense this year has really impressed me. In two games they have allowed only one play of 30 yards or more. That includes their season opener against a great North Carolina offense. The Virginia Tech front seven ranks 4th in the country in defensive havoc rate, so they are getting in the backfield early and often. West Virginia's offensive line is their biggest weakness on offense, and the Hokies should cause trouble in the backfield here.

The Virginia Tech offense hasn't impressed me very much this season. They are averaging only 5.26 yards per play (88th in the nation) despite playing a weak MTSU defense and a mediocre North Carolina defense. Braxton Burmeister hasn't proven himself as a passer. This is still a very good West Virginia defense. 

Virginia Tech runs the ball on about 65% of their offensive plays. Even their successful drives will take a long time. West Virginia's offensive line issues should make it hard for them to sustain too many drives.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's held off the Kansas City Royals 12-10 on Wednesday night. Kansas City has been tremendous offensively of late. How good? The Royals have scored six runs or more in 8 of their last 12 games overall. 

Oakland has put up 7 runs or more in 5 of their last 11 games, so the A's have been having offensive outbursts often in recent contests.

This is a mid afternoon contest where the high temperature will reach about 87 degrees. The wind will be blowing out toward left field at about 11 or 12 mph throughout this game. That's a great environment for run scoring.

Paul Blackburn and Daniel Lynch are both subpar pitchers at this point, and there should be plenty of people on base throughout this game.

The over is 18-6 in Nestor Ceja's 24 games behind home plate.

Take the over in this afternoon contest. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers offense has woken up a bit of late. They have scored 18 runs in their last three games, and some of the guys who weren't hitting the ball very well are showing signs of life. The Dodgers are healthier now than they were in the middle of the season offensively. 

The Diamondbacks offense isn't great, but having Ketel Marte back in the lineup has helped a lot. Marte is their best hitter, and he has been solid down the stretch. 

Tony Gonsolin isn't likely to pitch very deep into the game, and the Dodgers middle relief is questionable. Gonsolin is coming off an injury and only went 3 innings in his last start.

Luke Weaver starts for the DBacks and he is a below average righty. The Dodgers excel against right handed pitching.

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. Wegner is one of the best over umpires in the business. His strikeout/walk ratio of 2.14 for 2020 and 2021 is extremely low. He is a hitter-friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have some significant offensive problems. The Bears have a weak offensive line and a lack of skill position talent. Andy Dalton isn't likely to be the answer for this team. The Bears are very likely to be conservative on offense and play at a slow tempo. I would expect Aaron Donald and the Rams defensive line to be a major problem for the Chicago offense. 

The Bears defense is still an above average unit. Stafford should do pretty well with the Rams, but I don't think they'll find moving the football easy against this solid Bears defense. 

The last 3 years these teams have played each year. The final total score was 26.6 points. None came even close to this total.

Allen Robinson is a great weapon, but Jalen Ramsey will matchup with him. The Bears should struggle to find anyone else to turn to. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two young quarterbacks up against talented and well coached defenses. I would expect to see two conservative game plans in this contest.

The Miami secondary is excellent. Mac Jones starts right from game one for the Patriots, but he isn't surrounded by great talent and Miami's secondary will be tough to beat. 

Tua Tagovailoa was good in the preseason, but his regular season performances haven't been very good. He's up against a great defensive coach here. I would expect Miami to want to run the football more than normal in this game.

Both of these defenses have been good at preventing the big play. I think that continues in this game.

The weather here calls for 15 mph winds throughout the game. That isn't massive, but it does help the under some.

Will Fuller is out for this game for Miami too, which certainly limits their vertical passing game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Arizona Cardinals offense will once again play very quickly this year. Kyler Murray wasn't very healthy down the stretch last year. He is once again healthier now and I expect big things from him. It doesn't hurt that he now has De'Andre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and AJ Green on the outside. 

The Titans pass defense is subpar, and I think Arizona is the type of team that can take advantage of that early and often. 

Speaking of vulnerable secondaries, the Cardinals pass defense is a clear weakness. Ryan Tannehill has been great in this Titans system. He now has another star in Julio Jones on the outside. AJ Brown is excellent as well. The Cardinals aren't likely to be able to slow this duo down.

I think both of these teams will have a lot of success on offense. Another clear positive in this game is Jerome Boger's crew is here. Boger's crew is notorious for defensive penalties and high scoring games. In fact, the over is a whopping 114-77 in Boger's games as the crew chief (59.7% overs). 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kentucky Wildcats have a new offensive coordinator in Liem Coen. They also have a new quarterback in Will Levis. Levis looks like a significant upgrade from any QB the Wildcats played last year. Coen's system is more pass happy, and that will keep the opposition honest. In the past couple years, Kentucky could only run the ball. 

Missouri's defense is a relative weakness. The Tigers will likely struggle with the now two dimensional Kentucky offense. 

Connor Bazelak has proven to be a really nice QB for the Missouri offensive scheme. Drinkwitz is a good coach and I see Missouri continuing to improve especially on the offensive end. The Tigers have some nice weapons at the wideout spots. Kentucky has had a strong defense in recent years, but they have lost some key talent and they are no better than a mediocre SEC defense now.

The faster pace Kentucky is playing at is not factored into the totals yet.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Liberty and Troy should be a fun contest on Saturday. Liberty is a great "smaller name" team with Hugh Freeze doing a great job leading this team. It helps to have Malik Willis at quarterback. Liberty has won 9 straight games ATS. 

I'm not as interested in the wager ATS here, but I do like the value on the total. These are two teams who like to run the football a lot. Liberty is great at running the ball, but the strength of the Troy defense is their defensive line. 

Liberty's weakness defensively is their secondary, but I'm not convinced Troy has the offensive scheme and players in place to take advantage of that. Both Taylor Powell and Gunnar Watson are conservative and don't take many deep shots. We see a lot of screen passes and quick slants. 

The Liberty defensive front has gotten much better in recent years against the run. I expect Troy to run the football a lot here and if they do move it down the field it will take quite a bit of time.

With a total set this high, you have to see a lot of explosive plays to reach the total. I think both teams will play slow enough and keep things in front of them that there is value to the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes go to Ames to take on the Iowa State Cyclones this week. Iowa has dominated this series in recent history despite Iowa State having the better record and higher ranked team in many of those games. This has become quite the rivalry contest.

Iowa State has a top 3 group of linebackers in the country. The DLine is also stacked from a run stuffing standpoint. That is good against an Iowa team that is very conservative and dependent on the running game. Iowa's Petras hasn't proven himself as a quarterback yet.

The Iowa State offense is good, but they have struggled badly against this Iowa defense in the past. In two of the last four meetings, Iowa State has scored 3 points. In 3 of the last 4 they have scored 17 points or less. Iowa still has a top 10 or 12 secondary in the country. The Hawkeyes are always good against the run. 

Both of these teams play at a pace far slower than the average team in the country. There should be a lot of running clock.

The current forecast for Ames calls for 15-20 mph winds throughout this game. I like the under even without this, but it is a nice bonus if it comes to fruition.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bowling Green Falcons looked somewhat better on defense against Tennessee, but this Falcons team is still absolutely hapless on offense. Also, Bowling Green slowed their tempo down drastically in game one. Despite being far behind the Volunteers in the second half, Bowling Green averaged using 31.64 seconds between plays (very slow). 

South Alabama made a good hire in Kane Wommack. Wommack was wonderful as a defensive coordinator at Indiana, and he talked highly about the potential for this South Alabama defense. They looked great in week one against Southern Miss. Southern Miss averaged just 3.49 yards per play. Frank Gore Jr. and company couldn't get going against South Alabama.

South Alabama averaged 30.59 seconds between plays in week one, and I would expect this team to continue to play slower than an average team. They will look to run the ball often as well and that keeps the clock moving.

This one is totaled 4 points above my projected total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes lost their quarterback from last year, and the QB spot is a big question mark now. I expect Colorado to run the ball early and often this year and try to play at an extremely slow pace. They did have a big lead against N Colorado, but 77% of their offensive snaps in that game were running plays. 

Colorado's defense is led by star Nate Landman. I expect this Buffaloes defense to be improved compared to a year ago.

Texas A&M has one of the best defenses in the country this year. Mike Elko is an excellent defensive coordinator, and this is the most talented defense he has had at Texas A&M. They gave up only 10 points against a really good Kent State offense last week. Texas A&M is led by O'Neal at strong safety. The defensive line is full of highly recruited talent. The Aggies are going to be very hard to move the ball on this year.

Texas A&M still has question marks at quarterback, and I expect a fairly conservative game plan from the Aggies. They are talented on offense, but don't yet have a clear vision of what they will be. 

Take the under.  

*4 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers are likely to finish the country in the top 3 in the nation in tempo. Josh Heupel's teams always play at warp speed. UCF was first in the nation in pace of play last year. Tennessee averaged only 17.81 seconds between plays last week despite blowing out Bowling Green. The Volunteeers will play with extreme tempo.

Pittsburgh has picked up their pace last year and this year. Kenny Pickett is now a veteran QB who knows this system very well. The Tennessee defense is much weaker than they have been in recent seasons. They are especially weak in the secondary. Pitt should be able to take advantage.

The Pitt defense is still a good one, but they aren't nearly as dominant as they were a couple years ago. They lost several good defensive linemen, and their top safety (Hamlin) from last year. They will give up more big plays this year.

The tempo will be extremely quick, and this is still a total set fairly low. I think it is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys averaged only 1.93 yards per carry against Missouri State in week one. PFF graded their run blocking lower than they did for any Oklahoma State game last year. It was against Missouri State! Oklahoma State lacks weapons in the passing game that they had last year. Both Stoner and Wallace are gone and their deep threats are severely lacking. 

Spencer Sanders missed last week's game because of COVID protocols and he is questionable here. Sanders still has never shown he can be great in this offense and now he is without his star receivers. The offensive line in front of him is a big question mark.

Tulsa's offense is a huge question mark. Davis Brin steps in at QB, but Tulsa lost 19-17 against UC Davis in week one. Brin has 2 INT's and no touchdown passes. Smith was very good at QB for Tulsa last year and they will miss him. 

While Tulsa's defense is down without Collins, they still have a very good defensive front and I think they'll cause problems for the Oklahoma State offensive line.

The weather here calls for very hot temperatures and 20 mph winds gusting to 30 mph during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have a new look this year. Western Kentucky is airing it out early and often. They brought in Bailey Zappe at quarterback from Houston Baptist. They also brought in Zach Kittley as their offensive coordinator. He was the OC at Houston Baptist a year ago. If that wasn't enough, they brought in Houston Baptist's top two receivers from a year ago.

Western Kentucky's offense needed a complete overhaul after an ugly year last year, and that is exactly what they got. Now, the Hilltoppers are an air raid offense built around uptempo principles. 

Army is a slow paced team that relies on running the football about 85 or 90% of the time. Western Kentucky allowed 5.91 yards per carry last week against Tennessee Martin. It's highly unlikely that they'll be able to stop this Army ground attack. The Hilltoppers defense lost a ton from their front seven a year ago. 

What about Army on defense? They are accustomed to playing against triple option and run heavy teams. They have no one in practice who can simulate what Bailey Zappe and this impressive passing attack of Western Kentucky can do.

This total has been bet down a few points to a level where I have to play the over. I think both teams have an offensive edge here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays send Jose Berrios to the mound on Thursday against the New York Yankees. Berrios is at his best when he has elite control. In his last three starts, Berrios has 0 walks and 24 strikeouts. The Yankees lineup has scored a total of 4 runs in the first three games of this series. The Yankees have topped 4 runs in a single game only 2 of their last 11 contests.

Nestor Cortes starts for the Yankees and he has been very solid this year. Cortes has a great 2.67 ERA and a solid 3.63 FIP. It hasn't been a fluke. He has been very good. The Blue Jays lineup is a tough test, but George Springer is questionable with an injury and he is great against left handed pitching. 

Doug Eddings is behind home plate, and there is no better under umpire than Eddings. His strikes called percentages and strikeout/walk ratios are consistently either the best in the majors or in the top five. 

The weather here calls for 70 degrees so the ball shouldn't carry as well as it does sometimes at Yankee Stadium.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Triston McKenzie has been a really highly touted starting pitcher for the Indians over the last few years. McKenzie struggled a bunch earlier this year. What was wrong? McKenzie wasn't trusting his stuff. He was nibbling on the corners too much and walking far too many batters. He was routinely walking 4 or 5 batters a game. That won't cut it in the majors. 

McKenzie has changed his approach in the last month and the results have been amazing. He has walked three batters in his last five starts combined. McKenzie has allowed just 5 hits in his last 21 innings pitched! It has been a spectacular run for McKenzie of late. The Twins don't have the strong offense we expected at the beginning of the season. They have had key injuries and traded away some top talent as well.

Joe Ryan starts for the Twins here. Ryan is a very high strikeout guy. He averaged nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple A this year. The Indians offense has been streaky all year, but they have been ice cold the last couple nights. 

The weather here is helpful with a relatively cool summer night in Cleveland and the winds blowing in at about 10 mph. 

Dan Merzel is the umpire here and his strikes called percentage is above 65%. His strikeout/walk ratio is above 3. He is an under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies have been much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. The Phillies are only 18th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. The Phillies are an impressive 8th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

While Eric Lauer's numbers for this year look decent, I'm not about to think he is a really good left handed starter. The Phillies lineup should get chances here.

Aaron Nola has disappointed down the stretch. Nola has good stuff, but he is inconsistent. Nola has a 5.57 ERA on the road this year. He just gave up 6 runs to the Nationals in his last start. The Phillies bullpen is still a clear weakness.

We have a low total here and two offenses who have been hitting the ball pretty well overall.

Jerry Meals is the umpire here and that's a clear plus for the over. The over is 18-7 in his 25 games behind home plate this year. Meals long term has a very low strikeout/walk ratio- so he has consistently been a hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen started terribly on defense last year. They weren't even hitting in practice and it showed in their 55-3 loss to BYU in their season opener. By the end of the season, Navy had clearly improved a lot on defense. They allowed 10 against Memphis, 19 against Tulsa, and 15 against Army in their last three games a year ago. Diego Fagot is a top notch linebacker, and he will lead an improved Navy defense this year.

Marshall's defense ranked 4th in the country in yards per carry allowed last year. The Thundering Herd will once again be stellar against the run. Marshall's Jamere Edwards is a superior run stuffer. Penn State transfer Shane Simmons will help on the defensive line as well.

The Thundering Herd ranked 83rd in tempo out of 128 teams last year. Navy ranked 117th. The Midshipmen will rank in the bottom five in the country in tempo in neutral situations this year. They only push the pace if they get way down. The oddsmakers expect this game to be close and I think that is a fair assumption. 

Neither team is particularly explosive on offense, and there will be a lot of running clock.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights ranked 15th in the nation in tempo last year. Sean Gleeson put his stamp on the offense and they clearly improved. Do I think they will become a great offense this year? No. I do think they will be even better though. 

Temple's defense rated 127th out of 128 teams in the country last year in tackling grade according to PFF. The Owls missed tackles like it was their job. They ranked 124th in opponent QBR. They picked up only 13 sacks in 7 games. 

Temple's offense should be improved with Georgia transfer D'Wan Mathis at the helm. He was a very highly touted QB, but was inconsistent at Georgia. A big step down in class here. Rutgers was 80th in yards per play on defense last year. Temple's offense should be better this year.

This is a fairly low total for a game with one team playing very fast. We also have two weak defenses. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* We have two teams who are much better against left handed pitching. The Nationals rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Phillies rank 7th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. The two teams are only 12th and 18th against right handers. Both will be up against a subpar left handed starter in this contest.

Patrick Corbin has a 7.26 ERA and a 6.39 FIP in his last 10 starts. He has allowed 4 runs or more in 8 of his last 10 starts. He has allowed a ridiculous 2.70 HR's per nine innings. Corbin's control has been poor and hitters are making him pay.

Matt Moore has a 6.12 ERA and a 5.70 FIP this year. Moore has an 8.02 ERA at home this year, so I don't even know if it is a good thing for him that this game is in Philly.

Neither bullpen is very good and both of these bullpens have been used heavily in recent days. Both of these starters have blowup potential so the bullpens might be needed for a long time.

I think both teams get a lot of baserunners and scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Logan Webb has been tremendous this season. He is pitching his best at the end of the season. Webb has a whopping 12 straight starts with 2 runs allowed or less. Webb has a 1.82 ERA in that time and a great 2.72 FIP as well. 

Huascar Ynoa has a 2.15 ERA at home this year. Ynoa is a highly rated prospect who has come in and thrown the ball well for the Braves right away this year. 

The Giants are without Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt right now. San Francisco ranks a mediocre 13th in wOBA on the road. The Braves are without Ronald Acuna and Marcell Ozuna. They rank 12th in wOBA at home. 

A total this high with two solid starters and two shorthanded offenses. The two bullpens are both solid and pretty well rested also.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There are a bunch of key offensive players sitting out in this contest. Big Ben won't play for the Steelers and neither will Mason Rudolph. It will be Dwayne Haskins and Josh Dobbs under center for Pittsburgh here. That should mean a lot of cautious play calls. Najee Harris is also expected to be out, and the Steelers are very short on running backs behind him. The offensive line is still a big question mark too.

For the Panthers, Christian McCaffrey is out and that slows the Panthers down a lot. We will see a lot of Will Grier and PJ Walker at quarterback and they are below average backups. The Steelers defense is a good one, and I don't see the Panthers having much success here.

Look for a low scoring ugly contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Top Total of the Month* Jesus Luzardo has been absolutely awful this year. He has been even worse of late. Luzardo certainly has talent and there is always a chance he puts it together at any point, but his form is terrible now. Luzardo has a 7.76 ERA and a 6.23 FIP on the year. He had a 6.52 ERA in Triple A in 8 starts. Luzardo has walked 13 batters in his last 12 innings pitched. He is allowing 2.26 homers per nine innings on the year. A terrible combination. 

Washington ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Nationals are up against a struggling lefty in Luzardo here and they should fare well. 

Erick Fedde has a 4.60 ERA in the first half of the season in his career. His second half ERA? 6.14 in his career. Not good at all. 

Both of these bullpens have struggled of late, and there should be plenty of base runners on the paths throughout this game. Luzardo's four starts with the Marlins have seen a whopping 64 runs scored in total. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both the Rockies and the Diamondbacks are significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. The Rockies are 3rd in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Diamondbacks are 9th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. How do this teams do against right handed pitching? The Rockies are 17th in the majors in wOBA against righties. The DBacks are 27th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Jon Gray is a rare starter who actually has pitched better at home at Coors Field than he has away from Coors Field. Gray is in good form coming into this game. The DBacks have a batting average on balls in play of a whopping .355 (very lucky) in the past 13 games, but they have scored 3 runs or less in 7 of those 13 contests.

Ryan Blakney is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire based on his strikes called and strikeout/walk ratio consistently year over year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching this year. They are 15th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Sean Manaea has been up and down this year, but he is an above average lefty who has pitched pretty well at home in his career. 

Kevin Gausman has been really good for the Giants this year. Gausman has a 2.40 ERA and a 2.91 FIP on the season. The Oakland A's offense is middle of the road and this is still a pretty good pitcher's park.

Phil Cuzzi is the umpire behind home plate here, and that is a clear positive for the under. According to my umpire database, this is a guy who has consistently ranked in top 10 in strikes called- and he is a top six or under umpire in the majors.

In the past month these two teams are 2nd and 4th in bullpen ERA. I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Padres have definitely gotten desperate for some pitching help. They decided to sign Jake Arrieta to a contract. How has Arrieta pitched this year? He has a 6.88 ERA and a 6.12 FIP. In his last three starts with the Cubs, Arrieta allowed 27 hits and 14 runs in just 12 innings pitched. Arrieta isn't good at all, and the Rockies can mash at home.

Chi Chi Gonzalez makes  the start for the Rockies. Gonzalez is a fade pitcher for me to start with, and he is coming off the COVID list and is still trying to recover. He will be on a pitch count and then things will be handed over to the terrible Rockies bullpen. 

The temperature is expected to be 95 degrees at game time here. The ball really flies well at Coors in this kind of weather. Day games at Coors in hot weather have been great to over bettors in the last several years.

David Rackley is the home plate umpire. The over is 125-94 in his career games behind the plate.

I never go into a handicap wanting to bet over 14 since it is such a high number, but this one is justified.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants have been very good offensively of late, but they have had at least some good fortune. San Francisco has a batting average on balls in play of .353 in the last seven days. The Mets have a BABIP of .322 as well so they have been fortunate on offense also (and even then they haven't scored consistently). 

Marcus Stroman has a 2.78 ERA and a 3.45 FIP on the season. Stroman has a much better ERA and FIP late in the season in his career, and he has been pitching well of late. 

Logan Webb has been fantastic at home this year. Webb has a 1.58 ERA in 40 innings pitched at home. Webb has thrown 10 straight starts where he has allowed 2 runs or less. Needless to say, Webb has been tremendous for San Francisco.

The Giants rank in the top five in bullpen ERA in the past month. The Mets are in the middle of the pack. This is still a pitcher's park and Rehak (home plate umpire) is a good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jon Lester isn't good at all anymore. Lester has a 1.62 WHIP and a 5.57 ERA on the year. His FIP sits at 5.50 on the season. He is allowing a lot of hard contact, and he is averaging only 5.99 strikeouts per nine innings. That's a really bad combination. 

Brad Keller has a 5.79 ERA and an xERA of 6.64. Keller just allowed 5 runs in 5 innings against the Cardinals in his last start. He has walked four batters or more in four of his last eight starts. 

The Cardinals offense has woken up a bit of late. They are slowly getting healthier. 

The Royals offense has been better at home this year, and they are better against lefties. Both of these teams have questionable bullpens that have been used pretty heavily of late.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have been a top five offense this year against left handed pitching. They will face Detroit lefty Tarik Skubal in this one. Skubal has allowed a ton of hard contact this year. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in barrel rate. He has allowed a whopping 45.8% of batted balls to be classified as hard hit. Baltimore should scoring chances here. 

Detroit will go up against Matt Harvey. He has been all over the place this year. He has had some absolutely awful games, and he has had some pretty solid games. We know by his advanced metrics he isn't good. He's pitching in a very hitter friendly park here too. His numbers at home this year are much worse than on the road.

Orioles pitching has allowed a whopping 54 runs in their last 5 games! They have allowed 9 runs or more in each of those contests. Both of these bullpens have been struggling a lot of late.

Warm weather in the upper 80's with the wind blowing out about 10 mph helps here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on the Giants/Brewers under 8* Two teams predicated on superb pitching enter game two of this contentious series between two NL elites. The Brewers took game 1, limiting the away-team Giants to only 1 run behind an exceptional 7 innings from Corbin Burnes. Now Milwaukee will send out their other ace in Brandon Woodruff ((2.26 ERA, 0.88 WHIP over 131.1 innings). Woodruff needs little introduction. The 28 year old still boasts the best WHIP in baseball and owns an impressive 0.69 HR/9 innings rate, an 80.2% LOB rate, and xERA/FIP/xFIP marks all under 3.00. He's experienced a little regression in June and July but overall his command remains intact and he's terrific at preventing big slugs, something teams like San Francisco thrive off of (over the last 30 days the Giants are slugging .446 over and they're 2nd overall with 39 home-runs).

Making a start in place of Anthony DeScalfani, Aaron Sanchez (2.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 33.1 innings) will take the mound for the Giants Saturday. Recently off the IL, Sanchez looked crisp in his first start Tuesday against Arizona, throwing for 3 scoreless innings and only permitting 1 hit. One bad game against the Rockies at Coors Field back in May has inflated some of his numbers but Sanchez has looked really good overall. His short season has displayed his ability, like Woodruff, to limit power-hitting lineups and keep runners on base. Both the Giants and Brewers have experienced an offensive explosion the last few weeks but lately they're bats have cooled off. The under is 13-3 in Giants last 16 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

I expect another pitcher's duel tonight-- take the under. 

*3 Star Play Mariners/Rays over 9* The Mariners' pitching and defense is an issue. Allowing 30 runs over their last 5 games and ranked in the bottom third of the league in most defensive categories (69.7% LOB rate, 42.5% GB rate, 4.54 ERA), it's hard to like their chances against anyone right now. Seattle's Chris Flexen (3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 108.2 innings) certainly doesn't have the worst numbers. He's a solid pitcher who can often guide his team to wins and his 9-5 record on the season proves as much. But when Flexen struggles he really struggles, and those challenges often come when he's pitching on the road. Flexen held the Angels to only 1 run over 6 innings in his last away start at LAA, but in 4 previous away starts he permitted 33 hits and 18 runs in just 18.3 innings.

Michael Wacha (4.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 71.1 innings) gets the nod for Tampa, who's far from their best arm, although the month of July served him better. He held onto a 3.60 ERA over 20 innings, allowing more than 3 runs in only one of those contests. Still, Wacha's profile isn't very promising-- his sinking LOB rate, lack of command in preventing home runs (1.77/9 innings), and his 5.67 xERA indicate his disappointing first year with the Rays. They also have me wondering if he's due for some negative regression.

Both offenses are at an advantage today. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres host the Oakland Athletics on Wednesday afternoon. Blake Snell starts for San Diego while Sean Manaea is on the hill for the A's. It's a battle of lefties and that is important for totals bettors here.

San Diego ranks 9th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. They rank 17th in the majors against left handed pitching. Oakland ranks 14th in wOBA against right handed pitching. The A's rank 21st in wOBA against left handed pitching.

Both Snell and Manaea are quality lefties. These two can have some trouble with walks at times, but with Ryan Blakney as the home plate umpire that is a positive. He is one of the better under umpires in baseball. His strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio is excellent for under bettors. 

These get away day games often have a key batter or two missing from the lineup for a day off. Both of these bullpens are very high quality as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals rank first in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) over the last 30 days. Washington ranks first in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitchers. They are up against Matt Moore who is clearly a subpar left handed pitcher. Moore has a 5.79 ERA and a 5.68 FIP this year. He has had a 5.52 ERA or higher in his last three seasons in the majors. Not good. 

Erick Fedde starts for Washington and his ERA is 8.71 in his last five starts. His FIP during that time is 5.96 as well. He is struggling with control in that time (5.23 walks per nine innings). The Phillies have a solid lineup and they have been better at home offensively.

A game time temperature of 88 degrees with light winds blowing out at about 6 mph is another plus. 

Both bullpens have been a mess for much of the season. There should be plenty of base runners throughout this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* If you had just been betting closeout game unders in the NBA playoffs over the past decade, you would have made a bunch of money. 

Game 5 was a very high scoring tight game between the Suns and Bucks. Both teams shot the ball exceptionally well. 

The pace started fast in the first couple games of this series and it has consistently gotten slower and slower as the series has went on. How did they score so many points in game five? Was it a faster pace? Nope. It was by far the slowest paced game in this NBA Finals so far. Milwaukee averaged a ridiculous 1.352 points per possession. Phoenix averaged a very high 1.293 points per possession. 

Phoenix needs this game to stay alive. Their coach called them out for their defensive performance in game five. They should give a lot of effort on that end here. Milwaukee has the length to bother Phoenix. The Bucks have several very good individual defenders.

As the games get more crucial the pace tends to slow down. That has happened thus far in this series. If we get a pace like the last couple games, it takes a shooting performance far above season averages to get to this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Orioles rank 26th in the majors in wOBA on the road this year. The Tampa Bay Rays rank 20th in wOBA at home this year.

Brian O'Nora is the home plate umpire here, and he has consistently been a very solid under umpire. He has above average strikes called and strikeout/walk percentages. 

John Means returns for the Orioles here. Tampa Bay has a bottom five offense in the majors against left handed pitching. Means is clearly an above average left handed pitcher. Tampa Bay has multiple injuries in their lineup right now as well.

Shane McClanahan starts for the Rays. The Orioles crushed left handed pitching earlier this year, but they have cooled off dramatically against lefties in the past month. Tampa Bay has a strong bullpen with good depth behind McClanhan as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) at home. They have a .283 wOBA at home this year. They are up against Patrick Sandoval here. 

Sandoval struggled quite a bit early on in the majors, but he was a highly touted prospect and he has pitched much better of late. Sandoval has a tremendous swinging strike rate of 16.8% so far this year. 

Chris Flexen has been great at home this year. Flexen starts for the Mariners here. Flexen has a 1.99 ERA in 54 and 1/3 innings at home this year. He has a ridiculous .240 wOBA allowed. This is a pitcher's park and Flexen has taken advantage. While the Angels usually have a good offense, they are without both Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon right now.

Kerwin Danley has been a good under umpire through the years and this is a fairly high total for a game in Seattle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds rank as a top five offense against right handed pitching. They also rank as a bottom five offense against left handed pitching. They are up against a lefty in Eric Lauer here.

Wade Miley starts for the Reds, and he has been solid this year. Miley has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.24 FIP on the season. He has a tremendous .244 wOBA allowed on the road this season. The Brewers offenses is middle of the road against lefties.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike of any umpire in the majors in the past five years. Eddings has an extremely high strikeout/walk ratio. He is a clear positive for under bettors.

The under is 34-16-2 in the Brewers last 52 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Reds last 5 vs. an NL Central foe.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jordan Montgomery starts for the Yankees here. Montgomery has been good at home throughout his career. Montgomery has a 3.36 ERA and a 0.278 wOBA when pitching at home. In his career on the road, he has a 5.10 ERA and a 0.331 wOBA allowed. The Seattle offense isn't particularly good, but they have improved quite a bit in the past month. 

The Yankees offense is better than they have shown so far this season. There are too many solid hitters in this lineup for them to struggle all season long. They have shown signs of improved in the last few games. Logan Gilbert starts for Seattle in this one. Gilbert has a 5.63 ERA at home so far this season. 

Both starting pitchers are capable of giving up a fairly big number here. I see two offenses improving, and with this low total, I like the chances for this to go over the total. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Pablo Lopez is a good pitcher, but I don't think he is quite as good as his numbers look so far this year. Lopez has major splits from the beginning of the season to the end of the season in his career. He is strong in the first two or three months of the year, and then he really falls off a lot from July through the end of the year. In fact, his ERA is over 6 in his career in July. 

Lopez is up against a Dodgers lineup that has been hitting the ball well. They are averaging 6 runs per game in their last five games. The Dodgers sat out Bellinger, Muncy, and Betts last night. That means we should get the best guys in the lineup on Tuesday night. 

Tony Gonsolin starts for the Dodgers here. While he has been pretty good, he doesn't pitch very deep into games and the Dodgers middle relief is their biggest weakness. Miami does have some power in the middle of the order and they should get some chances here.

Carlos Torres is the home plate umpire here. Torres has one of the five lowest strikes called percentages in the majors in the past two years. His strikeout/walk ratio also shows he is a tough umpire for the pitchers. He has a small strike zone.

This number is awfully low for a hot Dodgers offense being involved.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies start Vince Velasquez here. Velasquez is a below average right handed starter. He has always had drastic splits in day/night games. Velasquez has a career ERA of an ugly 5.40 in day games. His ERA last year in day games was 8.10 and this year it is 7.23. Velasquez gives up too many home runs and the ball can fly really well in Philly on warm days. 

Blake Snell has a 10.36 ERA on the road this year. That is 33 runs allowed in less than 29 innings. Opponents have a ridiculous .442 OBP against him on the road. He clearly isn't that bad, but Snell has struggled away from pitcher friendly San Diego. Snell faces a Philly offense that ranks 10th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

The San Diego Padres rank 5th in wOBA in the last 14 days. The Padres have a deep lineup and they have plenty of power in the middle of the order. 

If Velasquez gets out of this game early, the Phillies certainly have bullpen issues as well which can lead to a big number.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both starting pitchers here are capable of getting blasted. Jordan Lyles has typically started season pretty well and fallen apart in the hot summer months. Lyles has a career ERA of a whopping 6.18 in July. Lyles has been struggling all season this year, and his ERA of 5.12 and FIP of 5.07 show exactly that.

Marco Gonzales has a 5.10 ERA this year. His FIP is 5.32 and his xERA is a ridiculous 8.47. Gonzales is struggling with his control a lot more this year again (it was excellent last year after being a problem in the past). 

Texas and Seattle have both swung the bat well of late. Texas has scored 4 runs or more in 9 of their last 11 games. The Rangers have scores 6 or more in 5 of those 11 games. Seattle has scored 5 runs or more in 9 of their last 13 games. 

Sean Barber is the home plate umpire here and my umpire database shows that his strikes called percentage and his strikeout/walk ratios continue to be on the very low side. Barber looks like a solid over umpire in the last couple years.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* David Rackley is the home plate umpire for this game. The over is a whopping 122-92 in his games behind home plate (57% all time). He has a much smaller strike zone than the average umpire.

Justus Sheffield has been known to struggle to find the plate at times. Sheffield can usually pitch fairly well at home, but his road numbers aren't good at all. He comes into this one throwing the ball poorly of late.

Steven Matz is inconsistent and he is coming off the COVID list for this game. He is expected to be on a 60 pitch or so pitch count. 

Seattle has hit the ball much better of late (top 10 offense in the last two weeks). The Blue Jays have been one of the best offenses in baseball this year.

Sahlen Field is a tremendous hitters park. The Blue Jays have scored 9 runs or more in three of their last five games. They haven't scored less than five runs in any of those games. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals start Jon Lester here. Lester is far past his prime and he has been hurt by the home run in recent years. 

Michael Wacha is expected to start for Tampa Bay. Wacha is wildly inconsistent and this Washington offense has been heating up of late.

The temperature for this game is expected to be 92 degrees with winds blowing out at about 10 mph. Day games with that kind of hot weather and wind blowing out have been very good over bets in the past.

Tampa Bay struggles to score at home, but on the road they are a top 10 offense in baseball. Washington has gotten quite the contribution from Kyle Schwarber of late.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Fenway Park has shown a strong tendency to have high scoring games in warm weather with the wind blowing out. The over is 105-73 in the last 178 games with a temperature over 70 degrees and winds blowing out at 6 mph or more. Game time temperature here of 83 degrees with winds blowing out at 8 mph certainly help the case for the over.

Brad Keller has been terrible all season. Keller has a 6.39 ERA and a 6.88 xERA this year. He has allowed a ridiculous 45.9% of batted balls this year to be classified as hard hit according to Fangraphs. He isn't fooling anyone. Boston's offense is a top ten offense and they should get to him here.

Nick Pivetta has drastically worse numbers pitching at Fenway compared to on the road this year. Pivetta struggles with the home run ball and Fenway in warm weather definitely plays small. The Royals do have enough power to do some damage here.

Both bullpens have thrown a lot of innings of late. The fatigue factor here is high.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Gonzalez is striking out only 5.15 batters per nine innings. He gives up a lot of long ball and is prone to allowing big innings. It would be easy to assume Gonzalez is just a victim of Coors Field, but that isn't the case. Gonzalez's road numbers have actually been worse than his numbers at home. His career road numbers are a 5.79 ERA and a .343 wOBA allowed. What about this year? Gonzalez has a road ERA of 7.59 and a WOBA allowed of a whopping .404. 

Eric Lauer isn't a very good lefty. While the Rockies can't right handed pitching, they are pretty good against lefties. Lauer has very poor historic numbers against the Rockies as well. Colorado's lineup has an amazing .516 wOBA against him in 73 at bats. Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon have both crushed him in the past. 

Both pitchers are more than capable of giving up a big number. In Gonzalez's last 10 games, eight of the ten games have had a total of 12 runs scored in them.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns and LA Clippers are locked into a tight battle in the Western Conference Finals. The Suns are up 2-1, but they could easily be down 2-1. Their last second win in game two was huge. The Clippers though have shown they are more than comfortable coming from down 2-0 in a series. 

The Clippers really turned up the defense in game three in their win over Phoenix. They also slowed the pace of the game a bit. Phoenix's Devin Booker struggled on offense with his mask for a facial injury. Chris Paul looked very rusty after missing a lot of time in the covid protocol. 

Phoenix's Cameron Payne is banged up right now and he has been key to the Suns offense especially in pushing the pace in the past. 

The Clippers offense is too reliant on Paul George without Leonard healthy. The Suns do have some quality defensive players who can make George have to work hard at all times.

The average pace for the first three games has been 93.67 possessions. At that pace, both teams could average 1.15 points per possession and the game would still a few points under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Which team is worst in the majors in offense on the road this year? The answer is the Colorado Rockies, and it isn't even close. Colorado has an overall team weighted on base average on the road of .254. The second worst team on the road is Pittsburgh at .276. Wow. The Rockies lineup is extremely weak this year and they have banged up quite a bit as well. Seattle is clearly a pitchers park.

Seattle ranks second last in the majors in wOBA at home this year. The Mariners have won a lot of low scoring on their home field. German Marquez is the Rockies ace and he has five great starts in his last six starts.

Justus Sheffield has been much better at home than on the road in his career. 

This is a get away day game and that is a plus for the under. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brandon Woodruff is very underrated. He's coming off a subpar start at Coors Field, but nearly everyone struggles at Coors Field. Even with that bad start at Coors Field, Woodruff has a stunning 1.59 ERA and a .170 weighted on base average away from home this year. In his career, his numbers are much better on the road than at home. 

He'll be at Chase Field (with the roof closed) on Wednesday afternoon. Carson Kelly is out with an injury for Arizona and Ketel Marte left last night's game with an injury and is questionable here. The Diamondbacks are very weak against right handed pitching.

Milwaukee's lineup hasn't been very good in recent weeks. The Brewers face Caleb Smith who has been in pretty good form of late.

Ryan Blakney is the umpire here and he is clearly an under umpire through the last few seasons.

This is a get away day game and those have been more to the under in the long run. There are likely to be a couple key guys out of the lineup.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies are much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. The Rockies rank 25th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are an impressive 5th in the majors against lefties. Colorado gets to face a subpar lefty here in Eric Lauer. Lauer has terrible numbers against this Rockies lineup too. They have a .560 wOBA against him in only 53 at bats. A small sample size, but the Rockies have crushed him.

Chi Chi Gonzalez isn't good at all. In his last six starts, he has a 6.86 ERA and a 5.91 FIP. Gonzalez doesn't induce soft contact, and he also doesn't miss bats. It's a really bad combination for a starting pitcher. The Brewers bats woke up a bit last night, and I like their matchup against Gonzalez and a poor Rockies bullpen here.

Day games at Coors Field in hot temperatures have been great to over bettors in the long run. The high temperature here is scheduled to be about 89 degrees during this game. 

Both teams should score plenty here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Kansas City hosts Boston on Sunday afternoon and the weather here should play a role in this game. A high temperature of 94 degrees with sustained winds blowing out to center field of 16 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph are in the forecast.

Nate Eovaldi is a solid pitcher, but this Kansas City lineup is deeper than most people realize. The Boston bullpen is also worn down right now.

Mike Minor isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago. Minor goes up against a Boston lineup that has scored 30 runs in their last four contests. 

The wind matters more in Kansas City than most ballparks. At Kaufman Stadium with a temperature of 89 degrees and wind blowing out 7 mph or more, the over is 26-10 in the last 36 contests.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Walker Buehler has pitched a shutout in each of his last two starts. Buehler has thrown 13 innings and allowed only 7 hits and no runs in those games. He started the season a bit slowly, but Buehler has a history of getting better as the season goes on. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit left handed pitching well this year, but they are a bottom six offense in baseball against right handed pitching. Buehler is one of the better starters in the majors and he should make it tough on them.

The Dodgers certainly have a very good offense, but they are a bit banged up right now. Matt Peacock has been up and down thus far in the majors, but he does have solid control.

Chase Field will have the roof closed here and that is good for under bettors. Even better for under bettors is the fact that Doug Eddings will be the home plate umpire. He has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in Major League Baseball over the last eight years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have lost back to back games where they were completely in control against the Atlanta Hawks. The 76ers now have their backs against the wall. Can they take care of business on the road to force a game 7?

Philadelphia had the second best defense when it comes to defensive efficiency in the regular season. The 76ers allowed just 1.070 points per possession. Atlanta had way too much offensive success late in game 5. Doc Rivers and some of the players talked about that in the postgame quotes. I think we see Philadelphia show a better effort on the defensive end here.

Atlanta's defense has been improved since Nate McMillan took over in the middle of the season, and that is the main reason they are at this point in the playoffs.

The long term trends for NBA closeout games going under the total are hard to ignore. The games tend to slow down and the defenses tend to improve when so much is on the line. We saw a game like that between the Bucks and the Nets on Thursday night. Also, the 76ers and Hawks average tempo has been just 98.5 possessions in the last two games which is clearly slower than it was in the first couple games of the series. 

At this high total, I'll side with the under in this crucial game six contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays rank 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average at home. Tampa Bay is 6th in the majors in wOBA on the road. The Chicago White Sox are first in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Shane McClanahan starts for the Rays here. This is the toughest test he has faced this year. He has struggled with the long ball, and Chicago certainly has power hitters through the lineup. 

Dallas Keuchel isn't even close to the pitcher he was a few years ago. Keuchel has a 4.14 ERA and a 6.03 xERA. Keuchel has an extremely low 5.15 strikeouts per nine innings on the year. 

The wind is blowing out in Chicago for this one and I expect both teams to get plenty of scoring chances in this one. 

The over is 22-9-1 in the Rays last 32 road games. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles now rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. It's quite the surprise, but Baltimore has consistently been very good against even high quality lefties this year.

The over is 7-0 in Baltimore's last 7 vs. a left handed starter. 

While Yarbrough is a quality pitcher, he has actually been far worse at home than on the road in his career. Yarbrough has a 4.48 ERA at home and a 3.46 ERA on the road. His weighted on base average in his career at home is .316 compared to just .281 on the road.

Akin for the Orioles has a 2.92 ERA at home and a 5.57 ERA on the road in his career. His wOBA allowed at home is just .253, but on the road it is .361. 

This is an awfully low total considering these numbers.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The over is 23-10 in the Angels 33 road games this year. Last year when Angel Stadium ranked 5th in park factor (a major hitters park) some wondered if it was a fluke. It ranks 8th this year so this is clearly a hitter friendly park at this point. It is 4th in home runs per inning in the majors.

Griffin Canning and Brad Keller have both looked worse this year than they have in the last couple years. Canning has an ERA nearly a full run higher in the first half of the season than the second half in his career, so he might improve later in the year. Canning has a 5.82 ERA and a 5.52 FIP this year. 

Keller has a 5.50 ERA and a 6.41 xERA. His FIP is 4.69. Keller has been a major disappointment this year. 

The Angels hit right handed pitching well, even without Mike Trout in the lineup. The Royals sit middle of the pack in wOBA against right handed pitching.

These are two bottom ten bullpens. Neither of these pitchers have been good at pitching deep into the game, and the middle relief here is weak.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Padres and Mets have two of the top five bullpens in baseball. Their depth is really impressive. It has allowed them to limit big innings late in the games in most circumstances.

Chris Paddack has drastic splits at home vs. on the road. He gets to start at home here and he'll be up against the severely shorthanded Mets offense. 

Marcus Stroman goes up against a Padres offense that has scored 4 runs or less in six straight games. They have scored 2 runs or less in four of those six games. 

Tripp Gibson is one of the better under umpires in baseball. The under is 10-1 in his last 11 games behind home plate this year. He consistently has a high strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and the LA Clippers square off in Game 7 at Staples Center on Sunday afternoon. This is an early start time on the west coast. These early start games have been good to under bettors in the past decade. Additionally, Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the past decade. This game has both.

Even more importantly though, it is a game 7 in the playoffs. This game is the most important game of the year for both teams. Win or go home. In the last three games of the series the final total was 187, 205, and 201 points. The defenses have definitely improved as the series has gone along. Both teams have been working in some zone defenses and slowing down the opposition much better than they did earlier in the series.

Luka Doncic is getting a ton of attention from the Clippers defense right now. Kristaps Porzingis isn't making them pay for that either. His offense has been terrible in this series.

The Clippers have consistently played poorly on offense in huge games the past few season. 

Of course these two teams could bury shots and this one go over the total, but I think this is a plus expected value wager.

Game 7's are a different animal. The pace should stay slow here and the defenses will be making most of the shots contested.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays rank 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Texas Rangers rank 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching. Both teams are starting left handed pitchers in this game though. 

How do the two teams look against lefties? The Rays are all the way down at 24th, a big drop from their performance against right handed pitching. Texas is worse as well, sitting at 26th in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Rich Hill started the year pitching poorly, but he has turned that around in a big way of late. Hill has allowed just 3 runs in his last 34 and 2/3 innings pitched. He now goes against a weak Rangers offense. 

Kolby Allard has potential for the Rangers. He hasn't been consistent, but this ballpark has proven to be favorable for pitchers. It ranks almost exactly on par with Petco Park so far this year in park factor. 

Texas is a bad team, but they have a top 10 bullpen. Tampa Bay's bullpen is deep and solid as they always are.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals meet in Kansas City on Friday night. 

Kansas City has scored 5 runs or more in six straight games. The Royals have scored 42 runs in that time (7 runs per game). They now go up against a pitcher in bad form in Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker has 5.90 ERA and a 5.66 FIP on the season. He has been bad. 

Brad Keller has a 5.68 ERA. He has a 6.55 xERA and a 4.77 FIP. No matter how you look at it, Keller has been bad this year as well.

Both bullpens are below average so there chances for runs late too.

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire here. The over is 137-107 in his games behind home plate. 

The weather is a help here too. The wind is blowing out about 10 mph and this stadium has shown strong over trends with the wind blowing out like this. A warm temperature in the low 80's is a positive as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers are down 3-2 and they come home to Staples Center to try to level this series at 3. 

Anthony Davis missed last game with a groin injury and he is listed as questionable for this one. Davis actually ranked as the team's highest rated offensive player in the regular season (just ahead of LeBron James). His versatility creates tons of open looks for everyone on this Lakers offense. Even if Davis plays, he won't be even close to 100 percent here. I think that hurts the Lakers offense quite a bit.

The Lakers rated as the best defense in the NBA in the regular season. They have won quite a few games down the stretch when they were shorthanded with their defensive pressure. 

The Suns and Lakers have shown they are happy to play at a slower pace in this series. One game went over the total in the first five, and that one didn't have any business going over (late fouls pushed it just over the number).

Elimination games late in the series have been strong to the under in the long run in the NBA. While this is a low number, it is low for a reason.

Expect the pace to be slow and the defensive intensity to be impressive here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* With the way these two teams have been shooting the ball this isn't an easy play to make, but I have to do it. The average pace of the first 3 games in this series is 90.83 possessions. 

The two teams have averaged 1.275 points per possession (Dallas) and 1.257 points per possession (LA Clippers) in the series. These are the two highest points per possession of any team in the NBA playoffs thus far. Are these the two best offenses in the NBA? No. Are these two of the worst defenses in the NBA? No. 

In the regular season these two played three games that all finished at 208 points or lower. 

With a pace of 90.83 possessions, the two teams would have to average more than 1.22 points per possession to get over this total. Their season long numbers don't suggest that can keep happening. The Clippers are a top five defense in the NBA for the year, and the Mavericks are an NBA average defense.

The NBA playoffs tend to bring about better defense and slower paced games as the games get more meaningful. These two teams have been red hot from the floor in the first three games. I think regression is likely.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners square off on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. 

Hyeon-Jong Yang starts for the Rangers here. He is a unique lefty who can give some hitters trouble if they haven't seen him. The Mariners haven't seen him. Seattle is a bottom three offense in baseball. Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 12 games. The Mariners have scored more than 4 runs only once during that time. 

Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Mariners here. He has looked like an improved pitcher this year. His walk rate is better and he is getting hitters to chase at more bad balls. The Texas offense is worse against left handed pitching. 

Mahrley is an under umpire behind the plate and this is still a pitchers park in Seattle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners are a bottom three offense in baseball. In fact, you could argue they are the worst offense in the majors in their current state. Texas is no better than an average offense, and I would say they are slightly worse than the average offense.

Justin Dunn has been a lot better when pitching at home than on the road. Dunn has had some promising starts of late as well. 

Mike Foltynewicz is certainly an up and down pitcher, but he gets to face a team that swings and misses a ton.

Texas has scored 0 runs in 3 of their last 9 games. Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. They have only scored more than 4 runs once in that 11 game span.

Tripp Gibson has proven to be a solid under umpire in his time behind the plate. The under is 9-0 in his 9 games behind home plate this year. His strikeout/walk ratio has been much higher than the league average in recent seasons as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The average pace in this series has been 95.5 possessions. If we assume there will be 96 possessions and both teams average 1.18 points per possession (higher than any team in the NBA averaged in the regular season) the total would still be lower than this posted total.

Both teams have shot lights out in this series. These aren't great defensive teams by any means, so I would expect fairly good shooting numbers. However, as the games get more important, the tempo usually slows even more and the defense gets a little better. 

In game three, there were more than 50 points scored in the last six minutes of the game. There were 29 points scored in the final 2:29 of the contest. That made a game that was a stone cold under turn into a terrible bad beat for under bettors. That has given us more value on the under here though. 

This game starts early in the afternoon local time. Early games have been better for under bettors than late games in the long term since the players are not accustomed to starting this early very often.

Of course both teams could shoot well and this lose, but at this high of a number I see a lot of value in this. Two of the three regular season games between these two finished at 217 points or lower.

This game means a lot to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians host the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night in Cleveland.

The weather should play a big factor in this game. Winds of 20-25 mph blowing in off Lake Erie make the under a very good look here. There is a chance of rain that could be a factor here as well so I'm keeping this play smaller than I would have if it would have been dry. Still, if the game is played this under holds value.

Ryu has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball over the last few years. He has great control and induces soft contact at a good rate. The Cleveland offense is one of the worst in baseball.

The Indians are going with a bullpen game here. That isn't a bad thing either since the Indians bullpen has been elite this year. 

The Blue Jays bullpen is an underrated group so if there are rain delays and Ryu gets pulled early the bullpen should hold their own as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mike Muchlinski is a solid under umpire. He has called more strikes in the long run than the average umpire by a solid amount. This is a very early get away day game. These kinds of games have been lower scoring on the average in the long run. 

Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius are out of the lineup for the Phillies. That is a big hit to this Phillies offense. 

The Marlins offense is one of the weakest in the majors. This is still a favorable park for pitchers as well.

Spencer Howard has a ton of upside and this is a real opportunity for him. 

Pablo Lopez has been amazing at home in his career, and he is having his best year of his career this season. Only one of Lopez's last five starts has gone over this very low total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jose Urena has a 4.62 ERA and a 5.12 xERA on the year. His xBA ranks in the bottom 10 percent of all pitchers in baseball. His strikeout rate is in the 7th percentile of all pitchers.

Triston McKenzie has a 6.89 ERA and a 5.68 xERA. McKenzie ranks in the bottom 1 percent of all pitchers in baseball in walk rate. How bad has his control been? McKenzie has walked 4 batters or more in all but one start this year. 

Both pitchers come into this game in bad form. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 12-15 mph during this game. Comerica Park has strong over trends with winds blowing out. In fact, with a temperature of 65 or higher and wind out at least 10 mph the over is 49-23-2 in the last 74 at Comerica.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The slowest paced game of the NBA playoffs so far was easily the Mavericks/Clippers Game 1 contest. That game was played to a snail's pace of 87.5 possessions. Both teams shot the ball far above their season averages and the game still finished at only 216 points. 

Dallas put up 1.284 points per possession. The Clippers averaged 1.184 points per possession. The average for these teams on offense during the regular season was about 1.15 points per possession. The two defenses gave up about 1.11 points per possession on average. 

The Clippers defense should be better in game two. The Mavericks got far too many open looks from 3 point range in game one. 

There were also 50 free throws in game one which is above normal for these teams. 

The Clippers are a top five defensive rebounding team in the NBA on the year. Dallas got back 34.9% of their misses on offense in game one. That should improve here.

While both of these teams are capable of shooting very well, this total is too high based upon the pace the regular season games between these two played out to. It is clearly too high if the pace from the first game in the playoffs happens again.

With playoff intensity and tighter defense, I think there is value here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* We saw the first day of NBA playoff games definitely ran lower scoring than regular season games on average. The pace was slower and the defensive intensity did pick up quite a bit. 

The New York Knicks were the slowest paced team in the NBA this year. The Knicks have been able to clamp down on defense in some of their biggest games this year. Coach Thibodeau has really changed this team for the better on the defensive end. 

Atlanta is a different team under Nate McMillan as well. The Hawks are now a middle of the road defense and middle of the road or slightly slower paced team. Earlier in the year this was a team looking to run all the time and playing very little defense.

The regular season games between these two were high, but this game means far more to both teams. Madison Square Garden is a good under venue on the whole because of the tough shooting backdrops. This being game one of a huge playoff series for the Knicks when they have been so bad for a long time should create some extra jitters and a great atmosphere.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In general we see the scoring go down in the NBA playoffs. Of course there will be some very high scoring games, but overall the average shooting numbers and the average tempo dips in the playoffs. The regular season games don't have the same intensity of these games.

Dallas and the LA Clippers have a rematch of their playoff series from last season here. There were some very high scoring games in that series. It is certainly possibly that could happen again, but these are different teams than a year ago.

With Rajon Rondo on the Clippers team and Lou Williams gone, the Clippers are playing a much slower pace. Williams was the Clippers most efficient offensive player against Dallas last year as well. The Clippers ranked 8th in the NBA in tempo last year. They ranked 28th in tempo this year.

Dallas ranked 18th in tempo last year. They ranked 26th this year. The Mavericks have been slightly less efficient on offense this year as well.

The three regular season games between these two finished at 197 points, 208 points, and 194 points. 

The average pace was 93.8 possessions (very slow) in those regular season games. The two teams averaging a very good 1.16 points per possession (above average) with a pace of 94 possessions would still put this total at only 218. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have Jorge Lopez on the mound here. Lopez has a 6.35 ERA and a 5.69 FIP. He gives up a ton of home runs. Lopez has allowed: 1.96 home runs per 9 innings in 2019, 1.62 HR per nine last year, and 2.12 HR's per nine this year. His career swinging strike rate is only 9.1%. He doesn't fool enough people and the Nationals do have some power in their lineup now that they have gotten healthier.

Stephen Strasburg will be on a pitch count here. Exactly how many he will throw we don't know, but he hasn't thrown any more than 75 in his rehab starts working up to this game. Strasburg has much better numbers in the second half of the season than the first half in his career, and he struggled badly in his first two starts earlier this year. 

With neither of these pitchers expected to pitch deep into the game, the middle relief should show up here. Both of these teams are middle of the road or worse when it comes to their bullpen overall. The weakness for both teams is middle relief where they are lacking depth. 

The game time temperature is a balmy 80 degrees in mid May and the ball should be carrying well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is one of the two best under umpires in baseball. Miller has had a strike percentage higher than the major league average every single season dating back to 2010. He is as consistent as they come at being a strike caller. That alone can't make a game go under the total, but it is a great bonus. 

Dane Dunning is an underrated pitcher. Dunning is due for some positive regression. He has a 4.34 ERA, but all his advanced metrics suggest he has been better than that. His xERA is 3.74 and his FIP is a stunning 2.63. He has an xFIP of 3.18. Dunning has a solid 10.9% swinging strike rate and he has good control.

The Rangers have been no hit twice this year, and this is clearly one of the weakest lineups in baseball. German is a solid pitcher for the Yankees. New York also has a top three bullpen in all of baseball. 

It's an early get away day game and that means there could be a star or two missing from the lineups here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins start Trevor Rogers in this one. Rogers has been fantastic this year. He has a 1.84 ERA with a 2.73 xERA and a 2.42 FIP. He is averaging 11.66 strikeouts per nine innings. Rogers has multiple strikeout pitches. He faces a Phillies lineup that is without Gregorius and Realmuto is questionable with an injury as well. 

Zach Eflin faces the Marlins lineup that ranks third from last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Eflin has a career ERA of 3.98 at home compared to 5.12 on the road. Eflin has a 3.86 ERA this year, but his xERA is 3.24 and his FIP is 3.95. Eflin is a positive regression candidate. 

Jeremie Rehak is the home plate umpire here and his strikes called percentage have consistently shown to be one of the highest of any umpire in the majors. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Indians have a team batting average on balls in play of .240 this year. The Seattle Mariners have a team batting average on balls in play of .244. No one else in baseball has a BABIP below .261. Neither of these offenses are great, but they are definitely better than they have looked so far this year. Positive regression is on the way in the long term. 

We have two pitchers with command issues here. Triston McKenzie has walked 4 guys or more in all but one of his starts this year. Justus Sheffield has had significant control problems in his career as well.

Stu Scheurwater is behind home plate and he has a smaller strike zone than the average MLB umpire. That could be a key here with these two starters.

Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* Steven Matz has been a wildly inconsistent pitcher through his career. He has allowed far too many home runs on a consistent basis though. That isn't a good fit for TD Ballpark in Dunedin, where the Blue Jays are playing their home games right now. Matz has only pitched at home twice this year and one of those starts (against Washington) was one where he allowed 8 hits and 6 runs in 3 and 2/3 innings pitched. The Phillies have plenty of power, and I think they'll get to Matz here.

Vince Velasquez has even more trouble with hard hit fly balls than Matz. Velasquez has a terrible 2.28 homers allowed per nine innings rate so far this year. The Blue Jays have scored at a very high rate at home so far this year.

Both starting pitchers have blowup potential here and these are two quality offenses. 

This is the second best ballpark for hitters according to Park Factors so far this year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Usually I begin by talking about the starting pitchers, but in this one I think the bullpens deserve the first spot. The Yankees have what many believe is the best bullpen in baseball. They have shutdown relievers who have elite swing and miss stuff. They rank first in the majors in bullpen xFIP and SIERA on the year. Tampa Bay has a very deep bullpen. That allows them to use a guy like Rich Hill and not take him deep into the game because they have multiple good options to bring in right after him.

The Yankees offense hasn't really gotten going all that much this year, and this is a pitcher friendly park. Tampa Bay has historically been better offensively on the road. 

Jameson Taillon has great control and his xERA is only 2.97 compared to his ERA of 5.02. He has had some very tough luck so far this year. 

Rich Hill has a 5.17 ERA and a xERA of only 3.57. His curveball is still excellent and he has above average control.

The under is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 road games. The under is 6-0 in the Yankees last 6 vs. an AL East opponent. 

Take the under here.