Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots defense has allowed 3 points so far this year. New England has certainly played some weak offenses so far this year, but the Patriots have a top two or three defense in the NFL. I love their defensive schemes, and I think they will give Buffalo a lot of trouble here.

Buffalo scored only 17 points on the Jets and 21 on a subpar Bengals defense. The Bills offense still has a ton of question marks for me. I think Josh Allen is a gamer and I like the fight he puts up, but this Patriots defense is likely to give him and the Bills offense significant trouble.

The Bills defense is a top six or seven defense in the NFL. New England is dealing with a lot of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line is a particular area of concern right now for New England. Edelman is banged up on the outside as well. 

A divisional game like this with two excellent defenses- I like this one to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Low totals in domes have been good plays on the over in the NFL in the last decade. That is especially true in non-division games like this one. 

The Oakland Raiders defense is a bottom three or four defense in the NFL. I really like the Colts offensive play callers and I think Jacoby Brissett is better than most people realize. Look for the Colts to have a good game plan ready to take advantage of this Raiders defense.

The Colts play a soft zone and the Raiders should be able to use their short passing game to move it down the field here. Indianapolis has a bunch of key injuries on defense. The secondary was their weakness to begin with, and Malik Hooker is a big loss for them.

The sharp money likes the over here, and I have to agree. This is a low total for a game in a dome and between two teams with clear defensive problems.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The forecast in Laramie calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts to 40 mph during this game. That kind of wind is enough to make a huge difference in a game. 

Wyoming and UNLV are already fairly predictable offensively. These are two bottom five passing offenses in the nation. The passing game will be even less of an option with this weather. Expect both teams to load up the box and dare their opposition to try to throw it over them.

UNLV plays at a moderate pace, and Wyoming plays very slowly. UNLV does have a lot of potential in the running game normally, but Wyoming is 13th in the nation in ypc allowed. Wyoming's running attack will move the ball here, but it should take a lot of time off the clock. Field goals will definitely be difficult in this weather as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The pace between these two should be especially quick. Arkansas State has a backup quarterback here or this would have been a bigger play for me. I still think the Red Wolves can have enough offensive success here though.

Troy has been excellent on offense thus far this year, and I think they can take advantage of a weak Arkansas State secondary. Troy has big play ability and they have a veteran signal caller.

Both defenses have given up a bunch of explosive this year. Look for a quick pace with plenty of big plays to get us to a relatively low total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies are typically a pretty conservative team under Chris Petersen. Petersen is a great coach, and he should have his team ready for this game. Clay Helton isn't a good coach. USC has a lot of talent, but it's hard to say how prepared they will be here.

USC starts quarterback Matt Fink here. Fink had good numbers last week against Utah, but he threw a lot of jump balls that ended up working out. Washington's secondary is definitely better than the Utah secondary though, and I'm not confident Fink will look as good here.

Washington should have the lead here, and they play at a slow tempo. They will run it more often late in the game if they are in the lead.

Also important to note is the weather. The forecast calls for a 50% chance of showers during this game in the pacific northwest. There will be 11 mph winds and gusts to 22 mph. That is definitely a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers need to keep winning games. They have been playing extremely well of late. Jordan Lyles has been very good for Milwaukee. Lyles has a 2.31 ERA in 10 starts for the Brewers. Lyles comes into this game in good form. He's up against a Reds offense that ranks 24th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. 

Tyler Mahle has pitched better at home this year than on the road. Mahle has a .309 wOBA allowed at home. The Brewers offense ranks 20th in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. 

Both of these bullpens have been pitching well. The weather conditions aren't overly hot in Cincinnati here. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the two biggest under umpires in all of baseball. Going back the last five years, Miller has the second highest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire. He has called 65.05% of pitches a strike this year, which is far above the MLB average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have been ruining all kinds of chances to score with turnovers and stalled out drives deep in opponents territory. The Chargers have played two pretty good defenses so far this year, and LA still ranks 4th in the NFL in yards per play. Rivers is still a good quarterback and he is surrounded by quite a few weapons. 

The Houston Texans offense has a lot of potential. As long as they open it up enough here and throw the ball early and often, I see this as a matchup where they can score plenty of points. Deshaun Watson is a really good quarterback, and he has tremendous wide receivers. The Chargers secondary is badly banged up, and Houston has a big edge at wide receiver.

The Texans biggest weakness now is also in the secondary. Their defensive line isn't quite as strong as it was a year ago either. Look for Rivers to do some damage on this Texans secondary.

I see both passing games having a clear edge here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers I view as an under team at least early in the season. This Green Bay defense is much better than they were a year ago. I like their athleticism and speed at all positions. 

Denver's offense is very weak. Joe Flacco simply isn't the answer, and Denver is going to struggle all year on offense. They simply aren't explosive enough. I see the Broncos as a team who tries to play fairly conservative offensively, and they don't have enough weapons either.

Green Bay's offensive tempo has been very slow so far this year. The Packers new offense hasn't worked well thus far. Green Bay is 2-0 because of their defense. The Packers offense is 30th in the NFL in yards per play so far this year, behind the Chicago Bears and just ahead of the New York Jets. 

The weather could be helpful here. The long-term forecast calls for 15 mph winds during this game and a chance of rain. Wind certainly helps the under.

Take the under here. 

*5 Star Top Play Over* Texas State ranks 19th in tempo so far this year. Georgia State ranks 24th in the nation in tempo. Two top 25 teams in pace of play should mean a lot of possessions here. 

Georgia State ranks 129th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. Texas State ranks 119th in yards per play allowed. These two defenses have been terrible. 

Texas State is allowing nearly 6 yards per play, and Georgia State is going to run it early and often here. They should be able to expose the weakness of the Texas State run defense here.

Texas State's new OC Bob Stitt wants them to air it out early and often. How much are they throwing it? Texas State has thrown the football on a whopping 68% of their offensive plays so far this year. If it weren't for some terrible turnovers in plus territory, Texas State's offense would have scored a lot more points so far this year.

Plenty of tempo from both teams and two very weak offenses. 

Take the over. 5 Star TOP Play. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals offense looks different this year with Drew Plitt at quarterback. Ball State is airing it out far more often than they did in recent seasons. Plitt has thrown 11 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions so far this year. He is completing a whopping 70.6% of his passes. 

Ball State ranks 10th in the nation in tempo. They will try to play as quickly as possible here. They are also likely to be behind, which should make them play even quicker and be even more pass heavy. The Cardinals offense has been much better than most expected this season.

NC State has gotten decent production from their offense this year, and Ball State's defense is very weak. Ball State has very little pass rush, and I think they'll give up quite a few big plays here.

While NC State's defense is good, they are much better against the run than the pass. This secondary isn't great and I think Ball State can score enough to get over this reasonable total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets have to win nearly every game the rest of the way to have any chance at the NL Wild Card spot. They likely won't make it, but they still have plenty of reasons to keep fighting. 

Zack Wheeler has been tremendous down the stretch for the Mets. Wheeler has allowed only 4 runs in his last 25 innings pitched. He has allowed 1 run in each of his last four starts. Wheeler is doing a very good job inducing soft contact of late.

Anthony DeSclafani has been pitching really well in the 2nd half of the season. DeSclafani had a .332 wOBA allowed in the first half, but it is all the way down to .261 in the second half. 

The Mets bullpen ranks 3rd in FIP in the last 30 days, and the Reds bullpen ranks 9th in bullpen FIP in the last 30 days.

The under is 15-5-1 in DeSclafani's last 21 starts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* UAB has typically been a good rushing offense, but the Blazers are averaging only 3.24 ypc yards per carry so far this year. That's bad to start with, but when you consider they have played Alabama State and Akron that is especially bad.

UAB does still have a very solid defense. Though they have played two bad teams, they have allowed only 20 plays of 10 yards or more and 7 plays of 20 yards or more. 

South Alabama has improved defensively from a year ago. This is a team that is being coached to try to avoid giving up the big play this year. UAB moves slowly so even when they score it is likely to take quite a bit of time.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have a really strong offense. Western Michigan has very nice balance. They rank 9th in the nation in yards per play. The Broncos have 22 plays of 20 yards or more already this season. The Syracuse defense has been a disappointment. The Orange have allowed a whopping 48 plays of 10 yards or more already this season.

Syracuse's offense hasn't looked good so far this year. They have played a pretty tough schedule though, and Western Michigan's defense is very weak. Remember, Western Michigan's defense made Michigan State's very weak offense look great just a couple weeks ago.

Syracuse will push the pace, and their offense should look a lot better here. Western Michigan's offense should be able to move the ball a lot as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs have consistently been better on offense on the road than at home. That isn't common at all, but under Andy Reid they are averaging almost 3 points per game more on the road than at home. In fact, the over is 16-5 in the Chiefs last 21 road games. The defense has been even worse on the road, and the offense has stepped up away from home.

Oakland's defense looked pretty good against Denver this past Monday night, but I don't have to tell you there is a huge difference in looking good against the Denver Broncos offense led by Joe Flacco and this KC offense led by Patrick Mahomes. Even without Hill, there are more than enough weapons here to take advantage of a weak Oakland secondary that is now without a starting safety as well.

Oakland's offense didn't have to do much in the second half against Denver, but they'll need to keep pushing to score here. Derek Carr has better players around him this year, and he knows the system better now as well. The Chiefs defense is a clear weakness, and I expect Oakland to connect on some big plays here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers defense looked excellent in week one. I know the Bears aren't a great offense by any means, but I liked what I saw from the Packers in terms of speed and athleticism on defense.

Minnesota has a top five defense in the NFL. The Vikings won't make it easy on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in their new offense. Green Bay looked very shaky offensively in week one.

This is a divisional rivalry, and these games have stayed under the total far more often than they have gone over. 

The long range weather shows 15 mph winds for this game which is just an added bonus.

The under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* Texas State’s new offensive scheme is a good one. They couldn’t get anything going against Texas A&M, but they moved the ball easily against Wyoming. Texas State’s turnovers and missed FG’s make it look like their offense wasn’t that good. The score doesn’t reflect how well their offense played. They also played much faster than they did in week one. Bob Stitt’s system is being implemented.

SMU looks much better offensively with a good quarterback to run Sonny Dykes’ system. They have put up 37 and 49 points in their first two contests. Take the over.

*5 Star TOP Play Under*

Both of these teams always circle this game. It’s an important rivalry game for these two schools. These rivalry games make me lean to the under to start with, and in the recent games against each other the under has had value.

Ohio has decided to slow the tempo down drastically. They rank as the 9th slowest team in the nation pace wise. Marshall is also slightly slower than an average team in tempo.

This is too high of a number. Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans offense will likely throw the ball a lot this year with a veteran quarterback and a good group of wide receivers. 

Southern Miss had an elite defense last year, but they lost a ton of players from that unit. The Golden Eagles aren't bad defensively, but they aren't close to last year's level.

Southern Miss is playing quicker and they are going to take more shots downfield in their new offensive scheme. Look for them to be able to get some big gainers on a Troy secondary that is questionable.

This total is a few points too low. 

The over is 40-17 in Troy's last 57 non-conference games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen defense is atrocious. They allowed 48 points against a terrible Rutgers offense in week one. They then gave up 45 points to Southern Illinois (a subpar FCS team) in week two. I’ve been really impressed with the Charlotte offense under their new head coach. They rolled up more than 500 yards of offense against Appalachian State last week. 

UMass has allowed a ridiculous 33 plays of 10 yards or more in just two games. Charlotte has been explosive on offense already this year. They have 34 plays of 10 yards or more offensively in two games. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 of the country in total defense. UMass should score enough here, and Charlotte is likely to put up a big number. 

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* Iowa/Iowa State under- Brock Purdy is a good quarterback for Iowa State, but he lacks weapons around him. Iowa State’s front seven on defense is amazing. Iowa always plays slowly and has a fairly cautious game plan. The Hawkeyes once again have a very good defense. This is a rivalry game where points are at a premium normally. I don’t see that being any different this season. Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* Graham Harrell’s offense looked great last weekend in USC’s win over Stanford. Slovis is a nice fit at quarterback, and he has some extremely talented receivers around him. USC is playing very quickly as well. This USC defense is way down from where it was a few years ago. USC ranks 78th in YPP allowed so far this year, and they haven’t even played great offenses. BYU’s offense should be improved with Wilson at the helm.

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The last three games between Miami (Ohio) and Cincinnati have finished with a total of 47, 38, and 21 points. Last year's game was played in poor weather, so that one should be discounted at least somewhat. Still, this has been a low scoring series for quite some time. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two.

This is a game that means a lot to both teams. Miami Ohio is in Oxford, which is only about 50 minutes from Cincinnati. Cincinnati has been winning in this series consistently, but there have been a bunch of close low scoring games.

Cincinnati's defense looked bad last week against Ohio State, but the Bearcats defense was excellent last year, and they certainly aren't playing an offense similar in any fashion to Ohio State here in the Miami Ohio Redhawks. 

Miami only ran for 2.4 ypc against Iowa in week one. The Redhawks totaled only 245 yards. In fact, Miami only had 349 yards against Tennessee Tech last weekend. There are a lot of questions about this Miami offense. They are young at quarterback, and he isn't surrounded by very much talent. 

Cincinnati's offense was due for some regression after their amazing success on 3rd down and long last year. The Bearcats are good on offense, but Miami's defense is the strength of their team. The Redhawks won't be able to stop Cincinnati, but I think they can slow them down.

In terms of tempo, Miami is 91st in the country and Cincinnati is 120th. There won't be any fast paced play going on here. I think both defenses do a good enough job of preventing explosive plays to make this under very valuable. 

Miami is running the ball nearly 60% of the time so far this year, and Cincinnati runs it on 63% of their plays. Running clock is always helpful.

I had this one lined quite a few points lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over*

Wake Forest pushes pace about as much as anyone in the country. North Carolina wants to play quicker this year as well. The Tar Heels have faced two good defenses in the first two weeks. The Wake Forest defense isn’t good. Wake Forest has put up big numbers in back to back games, and I think they’ll be able to score plenty again here. Lots of pace and a lot of scoring from each side. Take the over.

*4 Star Play Under* Kolby Allard has been very good for the Texas Rangers. Allard is a young lefty who was one of the better pitching prospects in the Rangers organization. After some poor starts earlier this year, Allard has allowed a combined 3 runs in his last three starts. Allard is doing a great job inducing soft contact. Of the 103 batted balls against Allard, only two have been barreled. 

Brendon McKay entered this year as a top 20 prospect in all of baseball. McKay has been up and down this year, but he is coming of a good start. He's also against a shorthanded Texas lineup here.

Both of these offenses have been shaky of late, and both of them are much weaker against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Texas ranks 25th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Tampa Bay isn't much better at #20. 

This is clearly a hitters ballpark, but we have two good lefties and a high total. The Rangers bullpen has been league average in the past month. The Rays bullpen has been top 10 in the majors all year.

The under is 7-2 in the Rangers last 9 games vs. a lefty.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers lost their superstar Christian Yelich to a fractured kneecap on Tuesday night. Yelich was having an amazing season, and as a fan I absolutely hated seeing him go down.  

Ben Gamel and Hernan Perez are expected to get a lot of time in the outfield in place of Christian Yelich. I don't have to tell you that it is a big downgrade from Yelich to either of those guys. The Brewers offense only ranks 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days even with Yelich in the lineup. Manny Pina is out of the lineup as well. 

The Miami Marlins have had the worst offense in baseball this year. In 8 of their last 11 home games they have scored 3 runs or less. Zach Davies doesn't rack up strikeouts, but he does induce soft contact and he should be able to navigate through this weak offense.

Pablo Lopez is a high upside pitcher who has been tremendous at home this year. Lopez has a 0.93 WHIP at home this season. He is coming off an excellent start in his last outing.

A total this high with a game involving the Marlins is fairly rare, and with the Brewers shorthanded on offense I'll side with the under. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game means a lot to both teams as they battle in the crowded NL Wild Card race. 

The DBacks have scored 3 runs or less in four of their last six games. This isn't a particularly deep lineup, and they have struggled in recent days.

The Mets start Zach Wheeler here, and he has been in great form of late. Wheeler has allowed only one run in each of his last two starts. He also has allowed 0 or 1 run in four of his last seven starts. 

Zach Gallen was one of the highest rated pitching prospects in baseball, and he has great stuff. Gallen has a swinging strike rate of 12.9% this year. He has a 1.41 and 1.79 FIP in his last two starts.

Doug Eddings is behind the plate here, and he is the single best under umpire in baseball. He'll help both pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Patriots were a much different team late last season than what they were the season before. They looked to run the ball far more. The Patriots also were led by their strong defense. I don't think most people realize how good this defense is now. This is a top five defense in the NFL. With Tom Brady aging, I think a more conservative game plan will likely continue.

The Steelers defense should be considerably better with Bush at linebacker. He gives the team that quick linebacker in the middle of the field that they have been missing the last couple seasons. 

I think both teams will do a good job keeping everything in front of them here. A tight game where both teams have to settle for field goals several times should keep this one under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These divisional rivals square off in week one of the NFL regular season. The New York Giants are without a couple key wide receivers, which should make their game plan even more conservative for this game. Look for a lot of running the football and short passes. That should keep the clock moving quite a bit.

Dallas will look to run it a lot and the Cowboys still aren't likely to take too many deep shots in this offense. Kellen Moore's system should take some time to get established, especially since Zeke hasn't been around until a few days ago. 

New York's Saquon Barkley is likely to bust quite a few big plays this year, but Dallas' linebackers make it harder to break big gainers on this team than the average NFL defense. Dallas is absolutely loaded at linebacker, and their speed is impressive. 

Five of the last six games between these two teams have finished at 40 points or less. Look for another hard fought contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers and Oakland A's have both been involved in a lot of high scoring games of late. In Detroit's last ten games there has been an average of 10.6 runs scored. In the A's last ten games, there has been an average of 10.6 runs per game scored. 

Detroit's bullpen ranks as the worst in the majors in FIP on the year, and Daniel Norris hasn't been pitching deep into thte game of late. Norris has gone only 3 innings in each of his last 5 outings. Oakland is much better against left handed pitching as well. I would expect Oakland to have a lot of scoring opportunities in this game.

While the Tigers offense isn't good, they are much better against lefties than right handed pitching. Sean Manaea hasn't been going deep into games in the minors either, and while the A's late inning bullpen is great their middle relief is questionable. 

A good umpire for the over here in David Rackley. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans have injury/suspension trouble on the offensive line. You don't want to be facing this Cleveland Browns pass rush with question marks on the offensive line. 

Marcus Mariota hasn't shown himself to be very good when under pressure in the NFL. The Titans will likely look to run the ball quite a bit here and bleed the clock. They don't want to get into a shootout here, and they know they have pass protection issues.

Cleveland's offensive line isn't very good in pass protection either. Cameron Wake is a nice addition for the Titans, and I see this Titans defense as underrated. They don't have many stars, but they don't have any glaring weaknesses either. 

Baker Mayfield is very good, but he can have some interception issues and I wouldn't be surprised if a couple drives are slowed by a pick or two here. The Browns running game isn't great either.

With an extra emphasis on holding calls this year, I see this as a game where there could be a lot of offensive holding penalties with the Oline's struggling to keep the pass rush off their quarterback.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Western Kentucky will look to play faster and air it out under Helton this year. The Hilltoppers defense was taken advantage of by Central Arkansas last week. FIU has a very efficient offense and I would expect FIU to take advantage of Western Kentucky's secondary here.

FIU faced a much tougher defensive line in Tulane last week and that bothered them. They don't face anything similar here from Western Kentucky.

Look for a lot of scoring in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Florida State was clicking on all cylinders in the first half last week against Boise State. They stalled out in a big way in the second half. Expect Kendal Briles to have some fixes for this week. The Seminoles have a huge talent advantage against the LA Monroe Warhawks here.

Importantly, Florida State was playing 5 seconds per play quicker than they did a year ago. The Seminoles played at the 2nd quickest pace of any team in the country in week one. I think they can put up a big number here.

Monroe has a veteran quarterback and a pretty good offense. They won't score too many, but it should be enough to get this past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Baylor ranked 125th in red zone offense last year. They had some very untimely turnovers in the red zone last year, and I would expect much better from them with another year in this system and a veteran quarterback in Charlie Brewer. Brewer has improved weapons around him, and this offensive line is definitely better than a year ago.

UTSA has nowhere to go but up compared to last year on offense. They still won't be good on offense, but they will be improved. They have a new offensive coordinator who has helped them have a better scheme.

Baylor's offense is way too good for this UTSA defense. The UTSA secondary is a major weakness, and I would expect Baylor to have a lot of guys running wide open in this one. The Bears have picked up their tempo a bit as well.

The extreme heat (100 degrees) is helpful for an over as well. There are multiple strong angles regarding taking the over in a hot game. 

Look for Baylor to put up a big number here and UTSA to do enough to get this past the posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado Buffaloes defense is way down from a year ago. Nebraska will push the tempo in a big way here, and I think this number is lower than it should be based on Nebraska's struggles last week. Nebraska's offense should get right this week and put up a big number here.

The Colorado offense is really dangerous with Montez and Shenault as the stars of the unit. Look for them to be able to find holes in this Nebraska secondary. 

I think this number is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mississippi State's defense was amazing last year. While I don't think they will be bad this year, they lost nearly everything from last season on the defensive end. The Bulldogs defense is going to give up a lot more than they did a year ago.

On the other side of the ball, Tommy Stevens is likely a good fit for the Bulldogs offense due to the fact that he has worked with Joe Moorhead in the past and knows this offense well.

Southern Miss has a new offensive coordinator this year. He was an assistant at Arkansas State, and I would expect Southern Miss to turn up the tempo this year and pick up more big gainers. Southern Miss has a strong offensive line and the Golden Eagles offense should be far more efficient this year than it was a year ago.

Both of these teams played in a lot of low scoring contests last year, which has kept this number down enough to give us value.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers aired it out early and often last week against Nevada. Purdue averaged 6.41 yards per play, so they moved the ball well. Turnovers were a big problem for the Boilers. Vanderbilt has had a strong secondary in the past, but they lost a lot from that unit, and I would expect Purdue's excellent group of wide receivers to be able to do damage against this secondary. Elijah Sindelar is a quarterback capable of throwing a pick six on a questionable decision or completing a long touchdown. The Boilermakers tempo was more than two seconds per play faster than last season in their week one game, and that is despite the fact they led for much of that game.

Vanderbilt said in the preseason they would play somewhat faster under their new offensive coordinator, and that was true in week one. They faced an elite defense in Georgia last week, but this Purdue defense is far worse. Purdue gives up too many big plays. Riley Neal and the Vanderbilt offense should move the ball pretty well here too.

I had this number at 60, so we are getting several points of value.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants and the St. Louis Cardinals played a high scoring tight game on Wednesday night, but I think this one is a lower scoring contest once again. Before last night, the last 3 games between these two teams had finished 1-0, 3-1, and 1-0. 

Dakota Hudson has been a streaky pitcher in his career. Hudson has pitched far better at home, and he has a much better WHIP in day games in his career. Hudson's biggest weakness is his lack of control. The Giants aren't a team with good plate discipline though. San Francisco has the second lowest walk percentage in the majors in the past month. Hudson hasn't allowed a run in 3 of his last 4 outings.

Logan Webb is a highly touted prospect for the Giants. Webb had tremendous numbers in the minors, and he has been good in 2 of his 3 big league starts. Webb has good swing and miss stuff, and these Cardinals hitters have never seen him before.

Cory Blaser is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the better under umpires in the majors. This is a get away day game as well.

Both of these bullpens are top notch, and the two defensive are good as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros start Gerrit Cole here. Justin Verlander just threw a no hitter yesterday, so the Astros bullpen is clearly well rested.

Cole's season long numbers are absolutely amazing. He has better advanced metrics than does Verlander. While I'm not saying he actually is better than Verlander, the two of them are far closer than many would believe. Cole has a great 2.85 ERA on the year, but in his last 14 starts he has a 1.94 ERA. Cole has a ridiculous 36 strikeouts and only 2 walks in his last three starts.

Adrian Houser has been getting a lot of soft contact of late, and this is a guy who I was too low on for quite a while. This is a very tough Astros lineup, but Houser has allowed just 1 earned run in each of his last four starts. He has a tremendous .276 wOBA allowed at home this year.

The under has been the way to look long term in the interleague contests, and the Astros lose a hitter here for this one. In addition, Correa is injured and Gurriel is questionable with an elbow contusion. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have arguably the best secondary in the MAC. Eastern Michigan will give teams who want to air it out often a hard time this year. Eastern Michigan is weak in the front seven though. Kyle Rachwal was the heart and soul of the linebackers and he is gone after racking up 127 tackles last year. The defensive tackles aren't very good against the run. That's important in this game.

Coastal Carolina is all about the run. The Chanticleers ran it on 66% of their offensive plays last year, and they might run it even more this year. They have some impressive talent at running back, and they have several guys who will see the field at that position. Look for them to have success breaking some big plays here.

Eastern Michigan's offense should be improved this year. The Eagles should be more balanced with a good athlete at quarterback in Mike Glass. The Coastal Carolina defense was horrible last year. They allowed 7.30 yards per play last year. They allowed a whopping 82 plays of 20 yards or more. Eastern Michigan should be able to move it consistently here as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Kendal Briles is the new offensive coordinator at Florida State. At Houston, Briles' offense was easily the fastest pace team in the nation. Briles has been stressing pushing the tempo ever since he got to Florida State. 

The Seminoles offense has too many talented players at the skill positions to not improve a lot in this new system. The OLine is still the weakness, but Briles should be able to draw up better plays and get the ball out quicker. 

Boise State isn't as strong in the secondary as many years, and I think the Seminoles will break some big plays. 

Boise State's offense typically moves at a normal tempo, and I don't think they will slow the game down too much here. The Broncos still have playmakers on the offensive end, and this Florida State defense will have to adjust to being on the field more with the offense playing at such a quick tempo.

This game was moved to Tallahassee and will start at noon. The hurricane winds shouldn't reach here until at least Sunday, and the current forecast calls for winds of only 6 mph during this game. 

With the tempo this game will be played at, I have to side with the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes play at an extremely fast pace under Sean Lewis. He was an assistant under Dino Babers, and he'll keep speeding this team up. Woody Barrett returns for another year at quarterback, and I think he is a really good fit for this offense. Barrett can run or throw, and the receivers are very solid for the Golden Flashes.

Kent State's defense gives up loads of big plays. The Golden Flashes allowed a whopping 42 plays of 30 yards or more last year. They won't be good this year either, and Arizona State still has some big play guys on offense.

Arizona State lost Manny Wilkins, but I really like Jayden Daniels. Daniels might struggle against top defenses as a freshman, but this is a great opportunity for him. Eno Benjamin is a great running back, and he should have a huge game against this Kent State defense. 

I would expect the pace here to be pretty quick, and the explosive plays from Arizona State should come often. Kent State's offense will be much improved this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas State Bobcats will look totally different this year. Jake Spavital is an offensive minded coach who wants to play uptempo. He brought in Bob Stitt, who is known as a mastermind of the fly sweep and many other unique offensive formations. Stitt is a guy who coaches turned to as they looked for innovation in the spread formation. 

Look for Texas State to go 4 or 5 wide often and use a lot of motion and quick passes. They won't substitute often because they really want to push the pace. While the Bobcats aren't great on offense right now, I think they can do enough here against Texas A&M.

The Aggies have a huge advantage offensively vs. an undersized Texas State defensive front. Look for plenty of big gainers from the Aggies offense led by Kellen Mond. 

With the tempo being at an extreme and the weather looking favorable here, I think this total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Angels have been much better offensively at home than on the road. The over is 8-1 in the Angels last 9 home games. In this one, they'll be up against a very weak starting pitcher in Ariel Jurado. Jurado's velocity is down significantly of late, and he is giving up all kinds of hard contact. Jurado has allowed 22 runs in his last 13 and 2/3 innings. He isn't missing bats, and the Angels should get to him here. Jurado will be the bulk pitcher in this game after Emmanuel Clase will be the opener here.

Patrick Sandoval has some potential, but Sandoval struggles to throw strikes. The Rangers looked good against him recently. Sandoval also has yet to throw more than 5 innings in a game, and the Angels bullpen is shorthanded and has been in really poor form of late.

Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire here- and he is one of the top three or four over umpires in baseball. His strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio show an extreme bias toward the hitter.

Take the over.   

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros send Justin Verlander to the hill while the Tampa Bay Rays send Charlie Morton to the hill on Tuesday night. These guys have been amazing all year, and they enter this game in great form. Verlander has an amazing 2.25 ERA and a .233 wOBA allowed in the second half of the season. Morton has given up a few runs in recent starts, but that has been largely due to poor batted ball luck.

Verlander has walked 3 batters and struck out 56 in his last five starts. That's remarkable stuff. Morton isn't far behind with 2 walks and 32 strikeouts in his last four starts. 

What about the bullpen behind them? The Rays have the single best SIERA as a bullpen in the last 30 days. The Astros are second. These are two deep bullpens who are very strong.

Look for a low scoring game here as both starters get a lot of swings and misses. 

The under is 6-1 in Verlander's last 7 games. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Anytime I see Hector Noesi starting for one team and the total in the game is set this low, I have to look to the over. It doesn't hurt that Vince Velasquez is on the other side either.

Velasquez has a history of pitching his worst late in the season. He's already had a questionable season against this Marlins lineup. Velasquez is giving up far more hard contact this year than he did a year ago. His ERA is lower than last year, but all of the advanced metrics suggest he has been much worse this year. He is due for some regression. The Marlins offense has actually scored 5.45 runs per game in their last 11 home contests.

Noesi is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He went three years without pitching in the majors, and now he is back and getting crushed again as he did back in 2014 and 2015. Noesi wasn't good in the minors earlier this year (5.33 FIP) and now he has allowed 16 runs in less than 16 innings pitched in the majors this year. He's backed by a Marlins bullpen that has the worst FIP in baseball in the last 30 days.

Both teams have the potential to have some big innings in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last month, and it isn't even close. The Royals struggle to put together rallies because they just don't have enough big league quality hitters on their roster. 

Zach Plesac has been good so far this year, and he goes up against a weak offense here. Plesac does give up a lot of home runs, but the Royals don't have much power and the conditions aren't favorable for hitting here.

Jakob Junis is an interesting pitcher in that he has drastically different splits in the first half of the season and second half of the season in his career. Junis has a 5.03 ERA and a .349 wOBA allowed in the first half in his career. He has an impressive 3.44 ERA and a .301 wOBA allowed in the second half in his career. He has gone 6 innings or more and allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 8 starts.

The under has done really well at Progressive Field with the wind blowing in. This is a park where the weather plays a larger role than most believe. A cool summer day with the wind blowing in is a big benefit to the under here.

The under is 5-0 in the Royals last 5 road games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in Junis' last 5 starts in Cleveland. A combined 10-0 angle. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals have scored 74 runs in their last 7 games. Washington is at their best against lefties. The Nationals rank 5th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties this season. In the last 30 days, Washington ranks second to only the Yankees in overall weighted on base average. 

Steven Brault is a lefty and he's a mediocre lefty. He's pitched fairly well of late, but this is a difficult matchup for him. Brault walks a lot of batters and there should be plenty of traffic on the bases against him tonight.

Max Scherzer starts for the Nationals, but they won't let him pitch deep into the game as he comes off an injury. What does that mean? It means we see a lot of the Nationals bullpen. Washington's bullpen has been the worst in baseball this year, and they have a couple injuries that have them even more short handed now. 

A total set this low with the Nationals bullpen in for quite a while and the Nationals offense as hot as they are, and I have to take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Citizens Bank Ballpark is one where the weather matters quite a it. Hot days with the wind blowing out have been very good for the over in the past. How good? With a temperature of 84 degrees or higher and wind blowing out at all the over is 55-38 (59%). When that wind is 7 mph or more the over is 37-18-1. A temperature of 90 degrees with winds out at 7 or 8 mph are in the forecast here.

Jason Vargas and Joey Lucchesi both have splits that show them getting worse in the second half of the season in their careers. Both of these teams are a lot better offensively against lefties than righties as well.

Lucchesi has a 1.16 WHIP in the first half in his career and a 1.40 WHIP in the second half. His starts on day games have been notably worst than night games as well.

Tom Woodring is a great over umpire behind the dish as well. The over is 10-2 in his last 12 games behind the plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies are both significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Both lineups will square off against a lefty in this matchup.

Arizona ranks 3rd in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. The Rockies rank 9th in wOBA against lefties. 

The Rockies are dead last in the majors in wOBA on the road, and they are first in the majors in wOBA at home. Coors Field is still the ultimate hitters ballpark. Arizona has scored 8 and 9 runs in the first two games of this series. 

The DBacks bullpen has been middle of the road in the past month, but the Rockies have the second worst bullpen ERA in the majors in the past 30 days.

Robbie Ray has been absolutely torched by this Rockies offense. While his ERA looks decent at Coors, his WHIP is a very high 1.761 here. Ray has allowed an awful .492 wOBA against this Rockies lineup overall in his career. Kyle Freeland has been a mess all year, and the DBacks have given him major trouble in the past. Arizona has an impressive .378 wOBA against him.

With a temperature in the low 90's for a day game at Coors, I expect a lot of runs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Boyd was tremendous earlier this year. Boyd had a .267 weighted on base average allowed through the first two months of the year. He has gradually fallen off since that time. Boyd has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 10 games. He has a 5.08 ERA and a .324 wOBA allowed in the second half of the season thus far. In his last game, he walked 3 batters and only struck out one.

Yusei Kikuchi has been disappointing this year. He has a 5.34 ERA and 5.88 FIP. Kikuchi has a terrible 6.93 ERA and a .416 wOBA in the second half of the season thus far.

The Mariners and Tigers are both significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching.

These two bullpens rank 28th and 29th in the majors in FIP on the season. 

The wind is blowing out at Comerica, and this is a park with very strong angles to the over with the wind blowing out. In fact, with a temperature of 65 degrees or warmer and a wind blowing out at 10 mph or more (11 mph out is the forecast here) the over is a whopping 44-19 in the last 63 situations.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Joey Lucchesi gets the ball here for San Diego. Lucchesi has been tremendous at home this year. He has a 2.71 ERA at home and has allowed a weighted on base average of only .250 at Petco Park. 

Diego Castillo serves as the opener for the Rays here. Austin Pruitt should be next in line, but Kevin Cash has made it clear that he may have to use the team's bullpen depth more in this series because of the pitcher batting. The Padres are 21st in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Both of these teams rank in the top six in bullpen SIERA and xFIP in the last 30 days, so they enter in good form. 

This is still clearly a very good pitcher's park, and interleague games in NL stadiums have trended toward the under in the past several years.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Over* These two bullpens have been absolutely terrible of late. They took turns getting shelled in Saturday night's game. The Braves ended up blowing a big lead and the Marlins picked up the comeback win.

For the year, both of these bullpens rank in the bottom ten in the advanced metrics. In the past 30 days, both of these teams rank in the bottom five. The Marlins are 26th in bullpen FIP in that time and the Braves are 29th. 

Mike Foltynewicz has potential, but he hasn't been good so far this year. His last start looks decent on paper giving up 3 runs in 5 and 1/3 in Minnesota, but he stranded tons of runners and had good batted ball luck in that one.

Hector Noesi makes the start for the Marlins here. Noesi has made one start since the end of the 2015 season in the majors. That start didn't go well at all. The Mets scored 5 runs on him in 5 innings pitched. Noesi has never been a good starter, and he has less velocity now and he's up against a great lineup.

The Marlins have allowed 6 runs or more in 7 of their last 11 games. The Marlins offense has shown signs of life in the past couple weeks too.

The over is 5-0 in the Braves last 5. The over is 4-0 in Foltynewicz's last 4 starts. The over is 5-0 in the Marlins last 5 home games. The over is 3-0-1 in the Marlins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A combined 24-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Nationals and Mets play a really important series in New York this weekend. The Nationals started the season slowly, but they have been great since those early struggles. The Mets are on a ridiculous run that has them just barely on the outside looking in when it comes to the NL Wild Card race. 

Stephen Strasburg has been tremendous this year as long as he isn't up against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Strasburg has been torched by Arizona twice. Before that last poor start, Strasburg had allowed only 4 runs in his last 5 starts combined. For the season, his numbers are the best of his career. Strasburg has been great at Citi Field in his career too. He has a 2.18 ERA and a 0.996 WHIP in 12 starts at Citi Field.

Marcus Stroman didn't really expect to be in a playoff race when he was traded to the Mets, but here he is. Stroman has high quality stuff and he has induced a lot more soft contact this year than in previous seasons. 

The fact that both teams had the day off yesterday helps. The bullpens should have their best arms ready to go. 

The under is 13-3 in the Nationals last 16 road games. The under is 19-9-1 in Strasburg's last 29 road starts. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Louis Cardinals rank 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average on the season as a whole. They rank 26th in the last 30 days. The Cardinals lineup hasn't been good most of the year. They have had some short stretches where they look great, but most of the time they have been a disappointment. 

On the other hand, the Cardinals pitching staff has been good. They rank 9th in overall team ERA. The bullpen has been a top five bullpen in the majors for much of this season.

The Dodgers rank first in the majors in team ERA. The Dodgers bullpen is a top ten bullpen in the majors, and Clayton Kershaw pitching deep into the game last night was really helpful for this unit. 

Jack Flaherty was shaky early on this year, but he has been pitching great of late. Flaherty has a FIP of 2.88 or lower in four straight starts. He has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in his last five starts.

Dustin May is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. May has excellent stuff and his upside is great.

Doug Eddings has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire in the majors in the last five years.

The under is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 vs. the NL West. The under is 6-0 in Flaherty's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 5-0-1 in Flaherty's last 6 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 vs. the NL Central. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 games between these two in Los Angeles. A combined 26-0 angle. 

*3 Star Play Under* Clayton Kershaw has been great at home throughout his career. Kershaw has a great 2.35 ERA so far this year at home. Kershaw has been good at inducing soft contact. Kershaw has been in good form of late as well. He has allowed only 7 runs in his last 5 starts. He has thrown at least six innings in each of those starts. 

Miles Mikolas has allowed only 7 runs in his last 26 and 2/3 innings. Mikolas was shaky at the beginning of the season, but he has really improved in the last couple months. 

Both the Dodgers and Cardinals have a top 10 bullpen in FIP for the course of the season and in the last 30 days as well. 

The under is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less. The under is 6-0-1 in Mikolas' last 7 starts vs a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles. A combined 16-0 angle.

Bill Miller is a proven strike caller and he's behind the dish here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals rank 6th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. Arizona ranks 11th in that statistic. Both teams are hitting the ball well.
Washington ranks 4th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Ray was initially scheduled here, but Young takes over and his advanced statistics are worse than Ray's. 
Joe Ross has been terrible as a starter in his big league career. He has a FIP of 5.6 in his career in the big leagues. The DBacks have enough offensive weapons to give him trouble and likely force some of the questionable long relief of the Nationals into the game.
I would expect both teams to get a lot of traffic on the bases in this one.
Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees have seen 10 of their last 11 games finish at 12 runs or higher, so this total isn't in all that high of a territory for the Yankees. New York is expected to get back DJ Lemahieu tonight and he is a big key for this offense. 

The Boston Red Sox are 7-0 to the over in their last 7 games. None of those games have finished with less than 11 runs. 

Since the All Star Break, Boston is ranked first in weighted on base average as a team. The Yankees are rated second in wOBA as a team.

Eduardo Rodriguez had an ERA of 6.14 at Yankee Stadium last season. James Paxton has been in terrible form of late. Paxton has a FIP of 6.22 or higher in three straight starts. 

The over is 12-1 in the Yankees last 13 games. The over is 12-1 in Rodriguez's last 13 road starts. The over is 7-0 in the Red Sox last 7 overall. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 games between these teams. A 38-2 combined angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Justin Verlander and Shane Bieber is quite the pitching matchup. These are two of the top five bullpens in the majors as well. While it has been hot in Ohio in recent weeks, the temperature has cooled quite a bit compared to a couple weeks ago. The weather calls for a temperature in the upper 70's here with a very slight breeze blowing in from center field. 

Verlander has easily the highest swinging strike rate of his career at 15.6%, so he is fooling a lot of hitters. Verlander has looked sharp since the break. He has only allowed 4 earned runs in three starts since the break. He has a whopping 30 strikeouts in 18 innings pitched since the break.

Bieber clearly isn't on the same level as Verlander overall, but he is having a great season. Bieber has a 3.44 ERA and a 3.18 FIP. He has a tremendous swinging strike rate of 14.4%. How good has Bieber been lately? In his last eight starts, he has a FIP of 1.81 or lower in five of them. 

The under is 15-5-1 in Bieber's last 21 starts. The under is 13-6-1 in Verlander's last 20 starts. Expect a lot of swings and misses in Cleveland on Tuesday night.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees have played nine straight games that have gone over the total. There hasn't been less than 12 runs in any of those games. The Yankees have gotten healthier on offense, and this is a scary good lineup. The Yankees haven't been getting good starting pitching though, and their bullpen has been a bit shaky in the last week as well.

J.A. Happ is nearly 37 years old. Happ isn't even close to the pitcher he was a few years ago. He has a 5.23 ERA and a 5.31 FIP. Notably, Happ has been far worse when pitching at Yankee Stadium. At home, Happ has allowed a .369 weighted on base average. On the road, his WOBA allowed is only .304. The DBacks aren't very good against right handed pitching, but they are a top five offense against lefties.

Taylor Clarke pitched pretty well last time out against the Orioles. He won't get to face a weak lineup again here. Clarke has some really ugly numbers so far this season. He has allowed a .393 wOBA overall. Opposing hitters have barreled the ball on 12.9% of batted balls against him, which is one of the highest marks you will ever see. He is allowing a lot of hard contact, and he is giving up 2.26 home runs per nine innings. This is a recipe for disaster at Yankee Stadium in warm weather against this lineup. 

The over is 9-0 in the Yankees last 9 games. The over is 5-0 in Clarke's last 5 road starts.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cubs and Brewers are rivals and they have a history of playing a lot of low scoring games against one another. The under is 30-8 in their last 38 games against each other.

Zach Davies is good at inducing soft contact. Davies has drastic 1st and 2nd half splits (better in the second half) in his career. He also has a 1.20 WHIP in day games and a 1.394 WHIP in night games.

Jose Quintana has held the Brewers to a .278 OBP in his career.The Brewers have been inconsistent on offense this year. 

Gary Cedarstrom is a clear positive for the under here with his strikes called % and strikeout/walk percentages. 

The under is 5-0 in the Cubs last 5 vs. the NL Central. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 8-0-1 in Davies' last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 8-0 in Davies' last 8 games against the Cubs. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts against the Cubs at home. A 30-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's have lost three straight games. They haven't hit a home run in three straight contests. Oakland's offense will have a favorable matchup here as they are up against Adrian Sampson. 

Sampson has allowed 18 runs in his last 10 innings as a starter. Sampson is allowing 1.94 homers per nine innings this season. A guy like Sampson who doesn't miss bats has to induce weak contact to be successful in the long run. He is giving up all sorts of hard contact right now. Sampson's exit velocity allowed is in the bottom five percent in the majors. 

Homer Bailey is coming off one of those awful starts that we saw with regularity from him last season and the year before. Bailey has been a bit better this year, but his lack of control lately is concerning. Bailey gives up a lot more hard contact than an average pitcher as well.

The Rangers bullpen has been overworked of late, and they rank in the bottom five in the majors in the past 30 days. The A's bullpen is mediocre as well.

The over is 7-1 in Sampson's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. John Means has had a great season, but this is a tough test for him. Means has a .258 wOBA allowed at home and a .328 wOBA allowed on the road. This is the highest ranked offense against lefties that he has faced this year so far. 

Means is a quality pitcher, but he is clearly due for some regression. Even with soft contact allowed, we can't expect Means to have a 2.95 ERA and a 4.36 FIP and 5.35 xFIP forever. He is also backed by a bottom five bullpen in baseball.

Taylor Clarke has been terrible this year. Clarke had a 7.22 ERA in Triple A this year. It hasn't gone well in the majors either. Clarke has a 6.50 ERA and a 6.46 FIP in the majors this season. He is giving up a ton of hard contact, and he has a swinging strike rate of only 8.8%. He doesn't have good enough secondary pitches.

Nick Lentz is the home plate umpire here. He has a strikeout/walk ratio of only 1.97 this year. Lentz is leaning heavily toward the over right now. He has been squeezing pitchers consistently this season. 

The over is 5-0 in Means' last 5 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in the DBacks last 4 games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Padres take on the Mets at Citi Field on Tuesday night. A temperature in the mid 70's and a wind blowing in from center field is a positive for the under here.

Jason Vargas has been good since a really bad first 3 starts of the year. Vargas has been particularly good at home. He has allowed hitters only a .222 average and a .289 weighted on base average at home. Vargas excels at allowing soft contact, and Citi Field is a great pitchers park. 

Chris Paddack is a star youngster who is throwing it really well right now. Paddack combines the ability to make hitters swing and miss and an elite ability to induce soft contact. Paddack has allowed a grand total of 6 hits and only 2 runs in his last 19 innings pitched. He is walking only 1.9 batters per nine innings. 

The Mets have scored 4 runs or less in 10 of their last 14 games. 

The under is 12-0-1 in Vargas' last 13 home starts. The under is 7-0 in the Padres last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a lefty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 overall. A combined 30-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins pitching staff has been a big surprise this year. Michael Pineda is pitching as well as anyone for the Twins right now. Pineda has a whopping eight straight games with a FIP of 3.83 or lower. He has a FIP of lower than 3 in seven of those eight starts. He has been consistently very good. 

Daniel Mengden doesn't miss many bats, but he does induce soft contact, and he has a very good defense behind him. The Twins offense has cooled off quite a bit of late.

Both bullpens are better than average. In the past 30 days, both of these bullpens rank in the top ten in baseball.

Additon is the umpire here, and he is a clear under umpire with his strikeout percentage and low walk percentage. 

The weather here isn't nearly as extreme as it has been in recent days. A gametime temperature of 79 degrees and wind blowing sideways doesn't help the offenses.

The under is 7-0 in the Twins last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 16-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense is on fire right now. Boston is first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. Boston is also first in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Red Sox put up 17 runs yesterday in a win over Baltimore. 

Boston will go up against Asher Wojciechowski who starts for the Orioles here. Nearly 50% of batted balls off him this year have been classified as hard hit. He is allowing more than 2 home runs per nine innings. He has been absolutely crushed in his day game appearances in his career, and I don't like his chances of slowing down Boston here.

Andrew Cashner starts for the Red Sox here against his old team. Cashner is allowing the most hard contact of his career this season. He doesn't get many swings and misses either.

The hot weather over the eastern part of the United States right now is extreme. A temperature of 98 degrees with winds blowing out at about 7 mph are expected for this one.

In 5 of the last 8 Red Sox games, one of the teams in the game has gotten to double digits. You couldn't get more favorable conditions for hitting than this weather.

The Orioles and Red Sox bullpens are both struggling of late, and they have been overused. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 between these two teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pirates are 23-5-2 to the over in their last 30 home games. This offense has been on fire of late, and the pitching staff has been worse than expected.

Jordan Lyles has been the worst of the starting pitchers on this team of late. Lyles appears to still be injured. He is struggling badly with his control. Lyles is also giving up a lot of very hard hit balls in play.

Jake Arrieta is pitching injured. He isn't getting many swinging strikes at all, and he isn't likely to pitch deep into the game. The Phillies bullpen has the worst FIP in the majors in the last 30 days.

A temperature of 91 degrees and wind blowing out to left field at about 10 mph helps too.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Dodgers and Phillies game on Wednesday night ended around 1:45 am after a long rain delay turned it into a very long night for both teams. This is a really quick turnaround. 

There is no set rule that quick turnaround games are going to be low scoring by any means, but I lean under in these circumstances. Why? Many coaches will sit out key players from their lineups. Dave Roberts regularly does this on get away day games to start with, so I would expect one or two Dodgers regulars to be out of the lineup here. A get away afternoon game on a Thursday is an under lean, and in this case with the short turnaround I believe it makes the situation stronger.

Bill Miller is arguably the best under umpire in all of baseball. He is a strike caller who always has one of the highest called strike percentages and strikeout/walk ratios of any umpire in the majors.

Aaron Nola has allowed only in 35 and 2/3 innings pitched in his last five starts. Nola is a really streaky pitcher, and when he is on he can be lights out. The Dodgers lineup is excellent, but Nola has tremendous stuff. Nola has been working deep into the game which is helpful since we'd like to limit how much of the Phillies bullpen we see here.

Ross Stripling is an underrated pitcher who threw the ball really well in his last start. 

The under is 6-1-1 in Stripling's last 8 starts. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers have the deepest lineup in the National League. The Dodgers are on fire of late. They have scored 42 runs in their last four games. This team has a lot of power, and they are especially good against right handed pitching.

The Phillies offense has been streaky, but they have a lot of potential. They are up against Kenta Maeda here. Maeda has been amazing at home this year, but he has struggled in a big way  on the road. Maeda has a 2.26 ERA and a .230 weighted on base average allowed at home. Maeda has an ugly 5.44 ERA and a .323 wOBA allowed on the road. 

Nick Pivetta comes into this one in really bad form. He has had a FIP of 6.92 or higher in four of his last five starts. You don't want to go into a matchup with the Dodgers with those kind of recent statistics. 

The Phillies bullpen has the single worst FIP of any bullpen in the majors in the last 30 days. The Dodgers middle relief can sometimes be an issue.

With a hot temperature and winds blowing out, I think there will be a lot of runs scored here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds start Anthony DeSclafani in this one. He has a major home run problem. DeSclafani is giving up nearly 2 home runs every nine innings. Wrigley Field is a good hitters ballpark with the warm weather we are currently seeing in the midwest. The Cubs have plenty of power, and they are very patient. Chicago is likely to have traffic on the bases here, so if they get a blast or two it could be big for the total in this one.

Alec Mills had a 4.73 ERA and a 5.32 FIP in Triple A this year. Mills also gives up a lot of home runs and hard contact. He doesn't have any pitches that are all that impressive, and I think he is a guy who will struggle to stay in the big leagues. 

The Reds offense has been much better in recent weeks. With Scooter Gennett healthy again and Yasiel Puig smashing the baseball, this offense has a much higher upside than they have shown for much of the season. 

Manny Gonzalez is a good over umpire with a low strikeout/walk ratio, so that is helpful for the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Cincinnati vs. Colorado Over* The Reds and rockies clash on Saturday night. This Over is a nice play for us. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies rank last in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Colorado is putting up video game numbers on offense at home, but they are struggling a lot away from Coors Field.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been elite against lefties, but they have been average to slightly below average against right handed pitching.

German Marquez has a great track record on the road. Marquez has a 0.876 WHIP on the road this year. 

Alex Young has good swing and miss stuff and the Rockies have a lot of free swingers in their lineup.

Doug Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the majors. He is a definite positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kenta Maeda is an underrated starter. Maeda has been lights out at home this year. Maeda has allowed a .167 batting average at home, and opponents have an on base percentage of just .226 against him at Dodger Stadium. 

The Padres rank 21st in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They have done some damage against lefties, but they aren't all that good against right handers.

Maeda's average exit velocity allowed is just 84.8 mph this year, which is superb. Maeda is clearly good at inducing soft contact.

Chris Paddack is a good young pitcher who doesn't walk many batters. Paddack has several plus pitches, and he has a swinging strike rate of 11.2%. 

The Padres rank first in the majors in bullpen SIERA this year, and the Dodgers are 10th. In the past month, the Dodgers bullpen ranks 3rd and the Padres rank 6th. These are two solid bullpens.

The under is 17-5 in Maeda's last 22 home starts.

Adam Hamari is behind the plate here, and he is definitely a strike caller. 

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays have played 7 of their last 10 games over this total. The Baltimore Orioles have played 7 of their last 10 games over this total.

Toronto ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Baltimore ranks sixth in the last 14 days. 

Dylan Bundy and Aaron Sanchez have been disappointing this year. Bundy is allowing more than 2 home runs per nine innings, which is one of the worst marks in the majors. Sanchez is walking almost as many batters as he is striking out. Sanchez is allowing the hardest contact of his career so far.

The Orioles bullpen ranks dead last in FIP for the season. The Blue Jays rank 23rd in that same statistic.

Rogers Centre pretty easily ranks first in park factor for home runs, meaning it has been highly conducive to home runs. With two bad SP's and bad bullpens, I like this to be high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'll start by saying this total is far higher than I would usually play an over at, but the baseball is clearly juiced this year and Coors Field is a hitters paradise this time of the year.

The forecast calls for 90 degrees and the wind blowing out by about 6 mph here. It has been warm the last few weeks at Coors Field, and how have things gone? Eight of the last nine games played here have finished at 15 runs or more. 

Now, we see two very flawed starting pitchers show up. Wade Miley is due for regression. The Rockies have pounded left handed pitching in recent weeks.

Peter Lambert is giving up tons of hard contact, and the Astros are finally healthy on offense once again.

Look for a lot of runs from both teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Louis Cardinals rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The Cardinals offense has been terrible of late. Marcell Ozuna being out certainly hasn't helped, and many guys in this lineup are being too aggressive right now.

The Padres have had some offensive explosions of late, but a lot of those have come against left handed pitching. They are a top 10 offense against lefties and a bottom 10 offense against right handed pitching.

Miles Mikolas has pitched really well of late after a slow start to the season. Mikolas has a 3.18 FIP or lower in six of his last ten starts. Mikolas excels at inducing soft contact.

Joey Lucchesi is getting more swinging strikes this year, and he has managed to get much weaker contact from opposing hitters despite the juiced baseballs this year. 

Kerwin Danley is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jon Lester starts here for the Chicago Cubs. Lester's overall numbers look pretty good, but under the surface there are definitely signs of problems. Lester is allowing way more hard hit batted balls than he ever has before. He has really struggled on the road this year as well. The Reds lineup has had a lot of success against him in a large sample size. Cincinnati has a .351 weighted on base average against Lester.

Anthony DeSclafani is a fly ball pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact. He has had major home run issues the last couple years. Where are those issues usually worse? At home, since he plays his home games at Great American Ballpark. Desclafani is giving up as many hard hit balls as anyone in the majors this year. 

The forecast calls for 90 degrees and a 7-8 mph breeze toward center field. That's a clear plus here.

The Cubs are great against right handed pitching. The Reds have struggled badly against right handers this year, but they are 15th in wOBA against lefties. 

Alan Porter is the umpire behind the plate here. The over is 13-2 in his last 15 games behind the dish.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs have a top ten offense. What are the Cubs really good at doing? This Cubs lineup is great at drawing walks. They are easily first in the majors in walk rate. They can make a starting pitcher work and take advantage of a pitcher who is having control issues. 

Luis Castillo is a really talented pitcher, but something is off with him of late. Castillo has walked 21 batters in his last 27 innings. Now, he must face a Cubs lineup which excels at this skill.

Jose Quintana has struggled this year. Quintana's curveball isn't as reliable as it was a couple years ago. Quintana has been struggling with control of late as well.

The Reds lineup has been a disappointment this year, but I think they will improve the rest of the way. Joey Votto has really heated up, and now Scooter Gennett is back from injury finally. Gennett is an important part of his lineup.

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here and he is tough on pitchers. This is an over umpire who doesn't give the corners as much as the average umpire. 

A temperature of 91 degrees with winds blowing out at nearly 10 mph at Great American Ballpark is a big help.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves offense is tremendous. The depth of their lineup isn't matched by many teams, especially not in the National League. Atlanta is fifth in weighted on base average on the season as a whole. In the last 30 days, the Braves rank number one in wOBA. This lineup is really dangerous. 

The Mets are 10th in wOBA in the last 30 days. New York has had a lot of pitching meltdowns and bullpen woes lately, but their hitting has been good. 

Steven Matz has the worst advanced metrics of his career. He has been very inconsistent this year. While he is capable of throwing it really well, he can also give up 8 or 9 runs.

Julio Teheran has a 3.99 ERA, but his SIERA of 5.21 suggests he is in line for some major regression. His hard hit batted ball rate is at the highest of his career. 

The Braves lineup has a career wOBA of .366 against Matz. Teheran was just blasted by the Mets in his recent start against them.

A temperature of 91 degrees and winds blowing out are a big help.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a really high total, but the total is really high for a good reason. Chris Archer and Jhoulys Chacin have been absolutely terrible this year. 

Archer has a 5.56 ERA and a 6.01 FIP on the season. A whopping 12.6% of batted balls against him have been barreled, so saying he has given up a bunch of hard hits is an understatement. Archer has been consistently bad as well. He has a individual game FIP of 4.35 or higher in ten straight starts. 

Chacin has a 5.88 ERA and a 5.87 FIP. Chacin has allowed 43.8% of batted balls to be hard hit according to Fangraphs (has never been above 39% before in his career). He is also walking 4.41 batters per nine innings.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are averaging 7.43 runs per game in their last 7 contests. Pittsburgh ranks second in wOBA in the last 14 days. 

The Brewers have a top 10 offense in baseball, and they have lot of depth on offense.

Both bullpens have been disappointing. Josh Hader pitched two innings for the Brewers yesterday. Both bullpens have a bunch of injuries right now.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The over is 6-1 in the CFL so far this year. That has the oddsmakers and bettors overreacting here. This total has moved too high.

It is certainly early in the season, but these are the 1st and 2nd ranked defenses in the CFL in yards allowed per game so far this year. Both of these defenses should be improved from last year.

Early in the year in the CFL, the under has generally done well. That has especially been the case when the total is set at a high level. Since 2005- in game number 1 through 6 of the season with a total of 53.5 or higher, the under is an impressive 72-46 (61%). Conference games in this same time frame with a total of 52.5 or higher are 56-26 (68.3%) to the under. This game meets both of these systems.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* In the last 30 days, the Rockies and Dodgers have been hitting the cover off the ball. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average during that time. Who is second? The Los Angeles Dodgers. These are two top offenses. They both are deep offensively, and they have quite a bit of power.

Dodger Stadium is much more friendly to hitters during day games. With a breeze blowing out at about 8 mph for this one the weather will be a positive.

Paul Emmel is one of the better over umpires in the league, and he can really make it tough on the starting pitcher.

Antonio Senzatela's numbers are the worst they've been in his career so far this season. Senzatels is getting less than 7% swinging strikes, and he is giving up more hard contact. That's a recipe for disaster against this strong Dodgers lineup.

Kenta Maeda is inconsistent and the Dodgers middle relief has been a weakness all season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. They have definitely cooled off offensively. 

Oakland ranks right in the middle of the pack offensively. The A's aren't as good offensively at home, because their home park is very tough on hitters. 

Neither of these teams have been good at drawing walks of late. Jeremie Rehak is the umpire behind the plate for this one, and his numbers point to him being a clear positive for the under. Rehak ranks in the top five of all umpires in least walks per game. He also ranks in the top five for lowest OBP for the offenses. Rehak is a strike caller.

Mike Fiers knows how to pitch at Oakland Coliseum. Fiers had a 2.91 ERA with a 0.882 WHIP at home last year. So far this year, Fiers has a 2.47 ERA and a great 0.87 WHIP at home. 

Chirinos is a pretty good pitcher as well. He has had a couple bad outings, but on the whole he has done well based on limiting hard contact.

The under is 31-14-1 in the Rays last 46 road games vs. a team with a winning record at home. The under is 5-2 in Fiers' last 7 home starts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Thursday's BEST Bet* Charlie Morton and Frankie Montas have both really impressed me this season. Morton has the highest swinging strike rate of his career. He has a 2.37 ERA and a 2.88 FIP. He has proven himself to be an excellent starter.

Frankie Montas has a 2.85 ERA and a 2.89 FIP. Montas has seen his swinging strike rate jump from 8.6% last year to 11.0% this year. Montas is also allowing softer contact this year. 

The Rays and A's are middle of the pack offenses. Oakland has been great on the road on offense this year, but at home they have struggled. The same was true a year ago. 

The Rays have played a lot of low scoring games against quality teams.

Both of these teams have top ten bullpens and I see this one being low scoring throughout.

The under is 36-17-2 in the Rays last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather isn't ideal at Wrigley Field for this one, but that is why the total is 9 at not higher.

Walker Lockett was called up from Triple A to make this start. I don't know why he was called up, but here he is. Lockett has been bad in Triple A for 3 straight seasons. How bad? He has a FIP of almost exactly 5 in Triple A. Also, Lockett is striking out only 3.28 batters per nine innings in Triple A. Wow. Lockett's numbers project as a guy who will struggle in a big way in the majors.

Tyler Chatwood gets a spot start for the Cubs with Kyle Hendricks injured right now. Chatwood was terrible as a starter last year. While he will occasionally throw a good game, Chatwood is far too wild. His inability to find the strike zone generally gets him in big trouble. Chatwood had more walks than strikeouts last year. He has a better ERA than last year, but his advanced numbers aren't much different than last season. 

The Cubs have a top five offense against right handed pitching. The Mets are 10th in the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in the majors at .371. Blackmon has been the hottest hitter in baseball. This Rockies lineup has tremendous numbers against Robbie Ray as well. The Rockies have a .442 wOBA in a pretty large sample size against Ray. They have actually hit him even better at Chase Field than Coors Field. 

Jeff Hoffman was really bad in Triple A earlier this year. He has pitched a bit better of late, but I still don't trust him at all. Hoffman is up against an underrated offense. The emergence of Ketel Marte as a star has really helped the Diamondbacks this season. Hoffman had an ERA of 7.57 in 7 appearances in Triple A earlier this year. He isn't the answer.

John Tumpane is behind home plate and he is one of the better over umpires in baseball.

Trevor Story is likely to miss this game, but that is more than factored in here with a total of only 9.

The over is 30-13-1 in Ray's last 44 home starts.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves have the hottest offense in baseball. In the last 14 days, Atlanta has a wOBA of nearly .400. The Braves have a really deep lineup, and they should make Steven Matz work really hard. Atlanta rates 8th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. 

Max Fried started the season out pitching much better than expected, but he has come down to earth in a big way of late. Fried has allowed 17 runs in his last 20 innings pitched. Fried has allowed more hard contact and has been working from behind in the count. The Mets rank 7th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

The heat should help the ball fly well in Atlanta. The Braves bullpen has been used heavily of late, and the Mets bullpen isn't good at all.

The over is 21-5-1 in the Braves last 27 games vs. a team with a losing record. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The wind is blowing out at about 10 or 11 mph in Washington. This is a park where the wind blowing out makes a big difference. We saw how big of a difference that can make on Saturday when the ball was flying extremely well.

Archie Bradley isn't a guy I trust, and he now starts. Godley will throw behind him, and he has been in bad form. The Nats offense has heated up a lot of late.

Anibal Sanchez has been solid lately, but he has faced some weaker offenses. I don't think he is nearly as good as he has looked recently. 

Favorable conditions and two offenses swinging the bat well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have a strong "opener" going here in Stanek. He fits this role very well. Jalen Beeks has been throwing it really well also and he is the pitcher who will come in after Stanek.

Griffin Canning looks like a good big league pitcher. He has a nice arsenal of pitches at his disposal and he can limit hard contact.

In 10 of the Tampa Bay Rays last 12 games, the total has finished at 8 or lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Finals Game 6 CASH* The Golden State Warriors stayed alive by winning Game 5 in Toronto. That was a game with all kinds of drama. The Raptors made a big run and appeared to be on the brink of winning it, but then the Warriors made a run to finish the game and won by two. 

Kevin Durant's injury was painful to watch, and it was a shame to see his season end in that fashion. Durant's absence hurts the Warriors a lot on offense. They are clearly still a very good offense with Curry and Thompson, but Durant can be unguardable. Toronto can now try to take their chances on leaving Green and Iguodala open from long range.

Toronto's supporting cast has been inconsistent on offense at times throughout the offseason. Leonard should have another good game here, but we will see what the Raptors do from long range.

These two teams are both very underrated on the defensive end. Golden State's defense was excellent in the closing minutes in Game 5. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism, and they are a tough matchup.

The pace has gotten slower in each of the last three games. As the game means more, things usually slow down. The tempo started at about 100 possessions per game, and the last two games have been 94.5 and 94 possessions. I wouldn't see any reason to expect a faster paced game here. It's a potential close out game and these have been very strongly toward the under in the past decade. 

Look for a hard fought game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brad Peacock is an underrated pitcher. Peacock has started 11 games for the Astros this year. He has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of those 11 starts so far this year. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of those starts. Peacock has been throwing the ball really well of late. He has a FIP of less than 1.00 in four of his last six starts. This is a guy who can miss bats, and I really like his form of late.

Freddy Peralta is far more inconsistent than Peacock. Peralta is capable of throwing an absolute gem. He's also capable of getting hit around. I'll take my chances here largely because of the Astros injury issues. Without Correa, Springer, and Altuve this Astros offense isn't even close to as good. Houston has scored 4 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 contests.

These are two excellent bullpens. When I see a total of 9 or higher with two very good bullpens I'm typically looking toward the under.

The under is 17-7 in the Astros last 24 games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* In the last 30 days, the Chicago White Sox rank 28th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Kansas City Royals rank 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in wOBA during that time. Neither of these teams are any good offensively.

Lucas Giolito has been lights out of late. Giolito had been a very highly touted pitcher, but he had some pitches that were getting blasted. Giolito has simplified things and is using an improved changeup to get a lot more swings and misses. Giolito had a 8.3% swinging strike rate last year. His swinging strike rate is a whopping 13.3% so far this year.

Brad Keller is a mediocre pitcher, but he is facing a very weak lineup here. Keller has had a lot of success against them in the past. The White Sox have only a .267 wOBA against Keller in 126 AB's. 

Giolito has dominated the Royals too. Kansas City has only a .238 wOBA against Giolito in 92 AB's. 

The wind will be blowing in about 8 mph here which helps too.

The under is 6-0 in Giolito's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in Keller's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Keller's last 4 starts vs. the White Sox. A combined 24-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees meet the Cleveland Indians tonight in Cleveland. The weather can play a pretty big role in how things go at Progressive Field. With the breeze coming in from right field tonight at about 12 mph throughout this game, it is a big help to the pitching staffs.

German is a solid starter for the Yankees. He has a 3.66 ERA and a 3.82 SIERA. German has an impressive 14.3% swinging strike rate. The Indians swing and miss a lot, and I think he matches up pretty well here.

Plesac starts for the Indians, and he has been great in his first two starts. He can't keep pitching as well as he did in those two games, but he has excellent control and the conditions are favorable tonight.

These two bullpens are excellent. The Indians are a top five bullpen in baseball, and the Yankees are a top three bullpen in the majors.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* David Hess is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball. Hess has a 7.36 ERA so far this year, and his FIP is is 7.10 so this hasn't just been about bad luck. Hess allows all kinds of very hard contact. His average exit velocity allowed is 91.6 mph. Batters have barreled up Hess on 15.3% of batted balls. In this kind of a sample size, I believe this is the worst I've ever seen from a big league starter. Hess isn't fooling anyone.

Ariel Jurado starts here for the Rangers. Jurado has a solid 2.80 ERA, but his FIP is 3.80 and his SIERA is all the way down at 4.23. Jurado is allowing a BABIP of only .272. That won't continue. He will also give up more home runs than he has thus far. 

Both of these bullpens are really bad, and they are both likely to be in the game for quite a while with this matchup of starting pitchers.

The wind is blowing out at about 8 mph and the game time temperature will be about 90 degrees. That is definitely a plus for the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Indians offense started the season out in terrible fashion, but they have been respectable of late. Cleveland is 26th in wOBA for the year, but they are 17th in the last 30 days. The Twins are first in the majors in wOBA for the year and 1st in the last 30 days as well.
Martin Perez isn't a guy I trust. Perez walks too many guys, and his SIERA of 4.64 this year suggests he has been very fortunate. 

The Indians are going with a bullpen game as far as the pitching lineup. This Twins offense is tremendous and I don't think the Indians have enough bullpen depth to keep them quiet. 

The wind is also forecast to be blowing out at about 8 mph here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox have been better than expected this year. The emergence of Lucas Giolito as a very good starting pitcher has really helped this team. Giolito has always been a very highly touted pitcher. Now, he has backed off on the use of his curveball and it has really helped him a lot. Giolito has a 2.86 ERA and a 2.87 FIP on the season. 

The Indians have a bottom ten offense in the majors. Cleveland is very inconsistent. The Indians aren't getting the production they need from Jose Ramirez, and this lineup lacks depth.

Plesac starts for the Indians here. He is a young pitcher who doesn't walk many people, and he wasn't intimidated by starting against a great Red Sox offense in Fenway in his first start. That was impressive. 

The White Sox offense has scored 4 runs or less in 14 games since May 14. This is one of the 3 or 4 weakest offenses in the majors.

Giolito has allowed a total of 8 runs in his last 7 starts and both offenses have struggled. Sunday has been the best day for unders in MLB by a wide margin.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Justin Verlander is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. He isn't as good as his ERA so far this season would indicate. There is some regression coming, but he is still going to be very good. In fact, his swinging strike rate is at 15.3% which is elite. Verlander is still fooling a lot of hitters.

Brett Anderson is an inconsistent pitcher, but he has thrown the ball well of late. Anderson is streaky and he has a chance here against an Astros lineup that is badly banged up. The Astros rank 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average, but they are only 25th in wOBA in the last 14 days. They are without Altuve, Springer, and Correa. 

The A's bullpen is a top 10 bullpen in the majors. The Astros bullpen is probably the best bullpen in all of baseball. 

Houston has scored 4 runs or less in 9 of their last 12 games. The Astros are likely to play in quite a few low scoring games without their offensive stars.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Athletics rank 15th in weighted on base average. They are without Khris Davis which definitely hurts their offense.

The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the majors in wOBA, but their offense is severely shorthanded right now. The Astros are without Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Carlos Correa. That is 3 of their top 4 hitters who are out right now. 

Mike Fiers isn't a great pitcher, but he is much better when pitching at home. This is clearly a pitchers park, and he has been able to use that to his advantage. Fiers had a 2.81 ERA last year at home and he has a 2.67 ERA at home so far this season.

Brad Peacock is a guy who has good strikeout stuff. Peacock has multiple plus pitches, and I think he has a lot of upside.

The Astros rank 1st in the majors in bullpen FIP. The Athletics rank 7th. These are two quality bullpens.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dakota Hudson has potential. He has been inconsistent, but as he has thrown his slider more often in recent outings his performance has improved quite a bit. After having a FIP of higher than 10 in three of his first four starts of the season, Hudson has improved drastically of late. Hudson has a FIP of 3.95 or lower in five of his last six starts. 

Jerad Eickhoff has been solid this year. He isn't spectacular, but he can generally hold his own. Eickhoff is much better when pitching from ahead in the count.

Kerwin Danley is one of the best under umpires in baseball. He has called a whopping 65.99% of pitches a strike so far this year. Danley has been an under machine for the last few seasons. He should help both pitchers in this one.

This is a get away day game and that can usually mean a key hitter or two is out of the lineup. 

The under is a whopping 48-22 in the Cardinals last 70 in game 3 of a series. Those are often get away days and the Cardinals sit out regulars pretty often in these spots.

This number has gotten too high for me to pass up.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Their wOBA sits at a terrible .256 during that time. The White Sox have scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 12 games. 

Kansas City ranks 24th in wOBA in the last 14 days. The Royals offense isn't as good as they looked earlier this year. 

Lucas Giolito has been absolutely dealing for the White Sox this year. Giolito has a 2.77 ERA, and it isn't a fluke. He has a 2.81 FIP. His strikeout rate was 6.49 batters per nine innings last year, but he is striking out 10.21 batters per nine innings this year. Giolito is throwing harder than ever, and his slider and change up have been excellent. The Royals lineup has 9 hits in 73 at bats against Giolito.

Brad Keller isn't tremendous by any means, but he is a steady guy who the White Sox hitters have only a .186 average against. He can have trouble finding the strike zone, but the White Sox haven't been good at all at drawing walks.

The under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 games between these teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Bucks/Raptors Game 6 CASH* The Raptors have stunned just about everyone by winning three straight in this series. Toronto has really picked up their intensity on the defensive end. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism and they have made it very difficult on the Bucks to get into an offensive rhythm the last few games.

Milwaukee ranked number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They have great shot blockers and good perimeter defenders as well. The Raptors have knocked down a lot of long range jumpers in the last couple games.

The pace of these games has gotten slower by the contest. The tempo in game 4 was 96 possessions and in game 5 it was 95 possessions. As the games get more important, we often see the pace slow down. 

This is a potential close out game, and these have been great under plays in the postseason in the last decade in the NBA.

I'll say the pace sits at 95 possessions or so again here. If both teams averaged around 1.10 points per possession (slightly above average in the NBA postseason), that would put the projected total at 209 points. 

This is a very important game for both teams and I would expect a lot of intensity on defense.

Take the under.