Sports Picks & Predictions

All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-26-21	UNLV v. Air Force UNDER 50.5		14-48	Loss	-110	36 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Under These two teams rank 120th (Air Force) and 122nd (UNLV) in pace of play. The tempo will be very slow here. Air Force runs the ball on 87.4% of their offensive plays. They will be very run heavy again here. UNLV is a bad team, but they have done one thing well this year. UNLV has a good defensive line. They have the 24th ranked run defense in the country according to PFF. UNLV has a top 15 stuff rate in the country. They won't shut down the Air Force triple option, but I think they can do a better job here than most would believe. The UNLV offense is really bad. The Rebels would prefer to run the ball or throw short passes. The weakness of the Air Force defense is their secondary, but I don't think UNLV can take advantage of that weakness. Air Force has a great pass rush, and UNLV has allowed 36 sacks already this year. Air Force will be in the backfield here. Air Force has seen 7 of their last 8 games finish regulation with a combined total of 48 points or lower. In fact, 5 of those 8 games finished with a total of 41 points or less. Air Force should have the lead burning up the clock late in this game to salt it away and that is a big positive for the under. Take the under.
11-24-21	UC San Diego v. Montana UNDER 142.5		61-71	Win	100	19 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Montana Grizzlies aren't a very good offensive team on an annual basis, but they are always good on defense. Montana has shot the ball better than expected this year, and they have been worse on defense than normal. I think that regresses to the mean. The website Shot Quality analyzes quality of shots taken by each teams and spits out what the score should have been. Montana's last three games have finished 38 points higher in all than they should have been. That has made this total be set pretty high for one of their games. UC San Diego has been drawing an insane amount of fouls so far this year. No one in the country had a free throw rate as high last year as UC San Diego has this year so far. That should regress to the mean and help lower scoring as well. Take the under.
11-24-21	Jacksonville v. Minnesota UNDER 132		44-55	Win	100	18 h 3 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Minnesota Golden Gophers are a completely different team this year under Ben Johnson instead of Richard Pitino. They have slowed their pace down drastically. Minnesota has seen 3 of their 4 games finish regulation with 127 points or less. Jacksonville is playing at one of the slowest tempos of any team in the country. They are using up 21 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. They have a new coach this year as well and they have a new slower tempo. The oddsmakers typically need a bit to adjust to the new pace of teams like this. Jacksonville turns the ball over a bunch which is just wasted possessions. Minnesota doesn't get out in transition much at all. Take the under.
11-24-21	Western Illinois v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 150.5		68-72	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Western Illinois Leathernecks have played a bunch of fast paced teams so far this year. Their offensive average length of possession is slightly slower than the average team in the country so far this year. The website Shot Quality takes the quality of shots and spits out projected final scores compared to what the actual score was. Western Illinois had a game against DePaul with a final of 84-80, but SQ thinks the final should have been 70-64. Their last game against N Kentucky was also three points higher than it should have been. Eastern Michigan has been very good defensively against shots from beyond the arc. Western Illinois takes a bunch of three pointers, and I think they'll be contested more in this game than they have been in most other games for Western Illinois. This is a high total for a game with two teams who have mediocre offenses at best. Take the under.
11-23-21	Northern Colorado v. San Jose State UNDER 141.5		74-75	Loss	-110	19 h 18 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The San Jose State Spartans have a new coach in Tim Miles. Miles is a good coach and I trust him to help this team improve over time. Miles has this team shooting a bunch of long range jumpers early in the season. They have been falling more than expected thus far, but I don't think the 3 point success continues. According to the website Shot Quality, the Spartans have outperformed their expected point total regarding the average shot of that quality this year. They have scored 251 points so far this year. According to Shot Quality, they should have scored only 229 points. Northern Colorado's defense is a tough matchup for San Jose State. Northern Colorado excels at running opponents off the 3 point line. Coach Smiley has continued the tradition started by Jeff Linder. N Colorado is a top 60 or 70 three point defense every year. Northern Colorado is a good under team because they don't get many second chance opportunities and they don't give up many offensive rebounds either. Both of these teams have faced a much tougher slate of offenses than defenses so far this year. Their defensive numbers should improve, while their offensive numbers are inflated. Take the under.
11-23-21	George Mason v. Nevada OVER 136.5		69-88	Win	100	15 h 17 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Nevada Wolf Pack are the favorites here, and they want to run and gun. Nevada gave up a whopping 102 points against South Dakota State yesterday. Nevada has had at least 143 total points in every game they have played this year, and this line makes very little sense to me. George Mason is an above average team in terms of tempo. Nevada is a top 50 team in terms of tempo. The pace will be very quick here. I had this total projected at 144 so I see this one as pretty far off. Take the over.
11-22-21	UT-Rio Grande Valley v. Northern Arizona OVER 140.5		82-80	Win	100	18 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Over These two teams just played on Saturday at a neutral site. The final score was 89-87. The tempo in the game was a blazing fast 78 possessions. Now, they go to Northern Arizona where the Lumberjacks will be playing on their home court and the total is set this low. Northern Arizona is pushing the pace more this year since they have Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Cone. The Lumberjacks have been a bottom 50 defense in the country nearly every single year in recent memory. UT Rio Grande Valley is slightly better on offense this year, and they are clearly worse defensively. Matt Figgers is a great offensive minded coach. Take the over.
11-22-21	Nevada v. South Dakota State UNDER 162.5		75-102	Loss	-110	18 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The South Dakota State Jackrabbits and Nevada Wolf Pack meet in a neutral site contest on Monday night. Neutral site unders in the first 8 games of the season have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years overall. This has been an excellent angle over a long period of time. Both of these teams shoot a lot of long range jumpers. Those long range jumpers can be a bit harder to hit in a neutral site gym. This is such a high total that I have to back the under. An 81-79 game is under the total. Take the under here.
11-22-21	Drexel v. Tulane UNDER 133.5		87-90	Loss	-110	12 h 30 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Drexel Dragons and Tulane Green Wave meet on Monday afternoon in the Bahamas at a neutral site. Neutral site unders in the first 8 games of the season have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years overall. This has been an excellent angle over a long period of time. Tulane plays a lot of zone and uses some full court pressure to actually slow the pace of the game down. Drexel and Tulane are both very good in transition defense so easy buckets should be hard to come by here. The long trip and a new gym is a positive for the under. Take the under.
11-21-21	Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 47		23-13	Win	100	14 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Under We're going to get either Colt McCoy (seems increasingly likely) or a badly dinged up Kyler Murray in this one. Hopkins is out for the Cardinals as well and that makes this offense a much less intimidating task for the Seattle defense. Arizona had just 3.2 yards per play last week against Carolina. Seattle's offense put up 0 points last week against Green Bay. I certainly expect them to be much better here, but this Seattle offensive line is a major problem and their running game isn't good at all either. Russell Wilson isn't 100 percent healthy. The Cardinals defense is an above average unit as well. Take the under here.
11-21-21	Bengals v. Raiders OVER 50.5		32-13	Loss	-104	23 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Las Vegas Raiders have continually given up big plays in the passing game. Gus Bradley is unwilling to go away from his normal scheme to use the two high safety look that has been great against Patrick Mahomes and others in the NFL who are great with the deep ball. Mahomes burned the Raiders last week. I think Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing attack can do the same. Burrow has three great options at wide receiver in Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Chase and Higgins are both excellent deep threats. The Bengals defense looked good early in the season, but the truth has come out in recent weeks. This is still a below average defense that is very poor in the secondary. They struggle against good tight ends, which makes the Raiders a tough matchup for them. The Bengals last 3 games have sailed over this total. This one is played in the dome and conditions will be ideal for these passing games. Take the over.
11-21-21	Houston Baptist v. Denver UNDER 143.5		61-74	Win	100	13 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Houston Baptist Huskies have decided to slow things down this year. They are playing 3.5 seconds per possession slower than they did a year ago. It makes sense because this team just wasn't seeing any success. They might as well try something different. Denver is playing differently under a new coach as well. He has them focused on defense, something that has been a major weakness in recent seasons for the Pioneers. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 75 in the nation in average possession length (so they are among the 75 slowest out of 358 in the country). Denver hasn't played a game that finished with more than this total all season including their games against Division II schools. Take the under.
11-21-21	Lions v. Browns UNDER 43.5		10-13	Win	100	44 h 15 m	Show
4 Star NFL Total of the Week The Detroit Lions plan to start back Tim Boyle in this one. While Jared Goff isn't a good NFL quarterback, it is a step down from Goff to Boyle. The game plan should be extremely conservative with Boyle under center. In fact, in recent weeks Dan Campbell has already been running the football a lot more. Swift had a whopping 33 carries for Detroit last week. Baker Mayfield is dinged up and far less than 100 percent. The Browns are highly likely to want to run the football a lot in this one and get out of here with a win over a weak team. The weather for this game should change things a bit. This is a stadium that is impacted a lot by wind gusts from the lake. Rain showers are expected with 15 mph wind and gusts over 20 mph. Take the under here.
11-21-21	Texans v. Titans UNDER 45		22-13	Win	100	20 h 10 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Tennessee Titans offense hasn't been nearly as good as you would have thought by the final scores in their last two games. The Titans only gained 195 yards in their win over the Rams. They had just 3.5 yards per play. In their win over the Saints, the Titans gained only 264 yards and 4.6 yards per play. The Titans offense is still decent, but Henry is a huge key and defenses can play them differently now. Houston's offense has been weak all season and they tend to be very conservative. The Texans have been especially bad offensively on the road throughout the course of the year. The weather for this game calls for a temperature in the 50's and steady rain with winds of 10-15 mph. That should be enough to make the two teams even more conservative. Take the under.
11-21-21	Saints v. Eagles UNDER 42.5		29-40	Loss	-110	10 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New Orleans Saints defense ranks first in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run, and it isn't particularly close. That's important since the Philadelphia Eagles have gone extremely run heavy in recent weeks. Philadelphia is a solid running team and they'll have some success here, but big gainers shouldn't be expected. They'll also likely use up a bunch of time and have to kick some field goals. The Saints offense is a shell of its former self. New Orleans will throw in some gimmicks here and there but they just don't have the playmakers to be above average in any facet of the game right now. The Eagles defense is top ten against the run as well, and the Saints are going to play conservatively here also. Take the under.
11-21-21	Temple v. Elon UNDER 135.5		75-58	Win	100	7 h 24 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Neutral court unders early in the season have been great long term (54.9% in the last 15 years). Early tip offs at neutral court sites have been even better in the long haul. This is about as early of a start time as you will ever see in college basketball. Temple is a solid defensive team that works hard on that end under Coach McKie, but they have no real identity on the offensive end. Elon is a good defensive rebounding team. Limiting Temple to one shot is key and I think they can do solid in that area. Elon's offense relies too much on questionable mid range jumpers. Take the under.
11-20-21	Baylor v. Kansas State UNDER 50		20-10	Win	100	121 h 29 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Baylor ranks 108th in the country in tempo. The Bears have played very slowly all year and I would expect the same here. Kansas State ranks 128th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats want to control the ball and use up the time. Baylor just played a very low scoring game against Oklahoma which tells you quite a bit about the Bears. Dave Aranda is improving this Baylor defense throughout the course of the season. Kansas State's has drastically improved in recent weeks. The Wildcats have given up just 13.0 points per game in their last three contests (TCU, Kansas, and West Virginia). Baylor runs the ball on 61% of their offensive plays. Kansas State runs the ball on 59% of their offensive plays. There should be a lot of running clock through this game. These are the 2nd and 4th ranked defense in the Big 12. They rank 2nd and 3rd in the Big 12 in rushing defense. Neither passing attack is known for big plays. They do a lot of short passes to keep the defense honest. Take the under here.
11-20-21	Illinois v. Iowa UNDER 38.5		23-33	Loss	-109	117 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Illinois Fighting Illini want to run the football early and often. Bret Bielema's team has been running the ball on more than 65% of their offensive plays of late. Iowa allows only 3.00 yards per carry which is 7th best in the country. Illinois has virtually no passing game. Iowa has played two quarterbacks, but neither one of them are very good. The Illinois defense has improved a lot through the season. This group has a better defensive coaching staff this season. This is an extremely low total, but it is very low for good reasons. Illinois has played in 7 straight games that have finished under this low total! Iowa has seen 5 of their 10 games this year stay under this very low total. Both teams play slowly and are conservative on offense. Both defenses rank in the top 15 in the country in preventing big plays. A lot of running clock and the defenses having the upper hand. Take the under.
11-20-21	Florida State v. Boston College OVER 54.5		26-23	Loss	-110	16 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Boston College Eagles have Phil Jurkovec back and it makes a world of a difference for this offense. Boston College looked like an offensive machine last week in their win over Georgia Tech. They put up 41 points on 8.9 yards per play. Jurkovec had an average depth of target of more than 18 yards per pass, so they were really being aggressive and taking shots down the field. Zay Flowers is a mismatch for most teams, and I don't think Florida State has an answer for him. Jordan Travis has been playing well for the Florida State offense. Travis is a good runner, but he has really matured as a passer as well. Travis led Florida State to 424 yards and 31 points last week in a win over Miami. He has been making good decisions with the ball. Boston College's offensive numbers for the year are misleading since Jurkovec was out for much of the season. This is a completely different offense with him on the field. This should be a back and forth game and overtime is even a possibility with a spread of less than a field goal here. Take the over.
11-19-21	IUPU Ft Wayne v. Minnesota UNDER 141.5		49-78	Win	100	16 h 29 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Minnesota Golden Gophers are playing two seconds per possession slower than they did a year ago. Minnesota has had two very low scoring games in their first three contests. Purdue Fort Wayne played a bit slower in their first contest than they did last season. This is a Fort Wayne team that puts up a lot of 3's, but Minnesota's defense is designed to run you off the 3 point line. The Golden Gophers should make it hard on Fort Wayne to get open looks from deep in this game. This total is several points higher than I believe it should be. Take the under.
11-19-21	Eastern Washington v. CS-Northridge UNDER 150.5		67-64	Win	100	14 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The CS Northridge Matadors have Trent Johnson as their interim coach. His preferred style of play is much different than Mark Gottfried. Gottfried has been a fast paced coach his whole career. Johnson has always been a slow it down type of coach. We are already seeing that in the numbers for this season. CS Northridge is averaging 20.7 seconds per possession on offense this year. Last year they were only using 16.3 seconds per possession. A 4.4 second difference is a huge tempo change. Eastern Washington has had high scoring contests in their first couple, but they have played two top 50 teams in terms of tempo they are now playing a bottom 50 team in terms of tempo. Neither of these teams are great defensively, but this is a very high total with one team trying to stall throughout the game. Take the under.
11-19-21	Bradley v. Colorado State UNDER 144		60-66	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Colorado State Rams are a high quality team. Colorado State has played three terrible defenses though. The Rams have taken on Oral Roberts (good offense bad defense), Arkansas Pine Bluff, and Peru State. Bradley isn't an elite defense by any means, but the Braves are an above average defense in most years under a defensive minded head coach. Bradley offensively is a mess right now. This is an offense with no real identity. Elijah Childs and Terry Nolan are gone and they were the go to guys. Colorado State should slow this Bradley offense down. This is a neutral site game. Early season neutral site games have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years. Take the under here.
11-18-21	St Francis NY v. Penn State UNDER 145		59-74	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Micah Shrewsberry is Penn State's new coach and he already has changed the way the Nittany Lions play in a big way. Penn State has slowed their pace down dramatically. The Nittany Lions are averaging 20.1 seconds per possession. Last year they were averaging only 16.6 seconds per possession. Penn State is likely to be playing from the lead here. They are big favorites against a St. Francis team that doesn't have many good shooters from the outside. Penn State should be a good defensive rebounding team this year, so I expect St. Francis to only get one shot in most possessions. This is a high total for the favorite being such a slow paced team. Penn State only scored 75 points against a bad Youngstown State defense earlier this year. Myreon Jones was a big loss for Penn State from last year's team. Take the under in this one.
11-18-21	Clemson v. Temple UNDER 135		75-48	Win	100	22 h 7 m	Show
4 Star Play Under For years now Temple has been much better defensively than they are on offense. The Owls always play hard, but they just aren't efficient on offense. Clemson is an elite team defensively under Brad Brownell. The Tigers have a lot of length that should bother Temple in this one. Clemson also controls the tempo and does a good job keeping the game in the halfcourt. Neutral court unders early in the season has been a great betting angle for many years now, and this one fits that system. In fact, 54.9% of all games on neutral courts in games 1-8 of the regular season have gone under the total. Take the under here.
11-18-21	Davidson v. New Mexico State UNDER 133.5		64-75	Loss	-110	18 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under This game tips off at noon eastern in South Carolina. New Mexico State is a long way from home for this one. New Mexico State is a tremendous defensive team that works hard to keep the tempo slow. Davidson has had higher scoring games than they should have based on the quality of their shots in those games. Neutral court unders early in the season has been a great betting angle for many years now, and this one fits that system. In fact, 54.9% of all games on neutral courts in games 1-8 of the regular season have gone under the total. Take the under here.
11-17-21	Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 205.5		89-97	Win	100	7 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Detroit Pistons offense is one of the weakest in the NBA. The Indiana Pacers have slowed down their tempo in recent games. Indiana ranks 25th out of 30 teams in the NBA in pace of play in their last ten games. The Pacers have been an under machine of late. Detroit has shown that they typically play a game to the preferred tempo of their opponent. That is common for a weak and young team like the Pistons. Detroit has scored 91 points or less in four of their last eight games overall. The under is 6-0 in the Pacers last 6 road games. Take the under.
11-17-21	Central Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 61.5		37-17	Win	100	40 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Ball State Cardinals host the Central Michigan Chippewas on Wednesday night in the MAC. Both of these teams have at least a shot at the MAC West still (Central Michigan has the better chance). Ball State has a pretty good defense at least by MAC standards. Central Michigan is a good run defense and a poor pass defense. Ball State doesn't allow big plays which is crucial for an under. Ball State ranks 4th in the nation in defensive explosiveness. Central Michigan has relied heavily on big plays this year, and Ball State should be able to slow those down better than most MAC teams. Both teams probably will need to rely on the run more than normal in this game. The weather forecast for Muncie on Wednesday night calls for winds of 16 mph with gusts to 22 mph and rain throughout this game. Both defenses are clearly better against the run than the pass, so their weaknesses might not be exposed as much as normal here thanks to the bad weather. Take the under. This line is moving down as the weather forecast is being seen by more of the market. I would bet this game down to 58. Thanks and good luck.
11-17-21	La Salle v. Delaware UNDER 144		82-85	Loss	-110	18 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Delaware Blue Hens and La Salle Explorers have played two games each and according to Shot Quality, both of these teams have played in games that have been higher scoring than they should have been based on the averages of their quality of shots. A good example of a statistic that is screaming for regression is Delaware's 3 point defense. The Blue Hens have allowed opponents to shoot 62.1% from 3 point range. We know that definitely isn't going to continue. La Salle has shot 33.6% or lower from 3 point range in the last three seasons. The Explorers have played two teams that have finished regulation with 134 points or lower. This should be a game with a tempo right around the average pace in the country. Regression to the mean should mean the under has a good chance. Take the under.
11-16-21	BYU v. Oregon UNDER 141.5		81-49	Win	100	7 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The BYU Cougars have slowed their tempo down quite a bit this year. BYU is 301st in the nation in average possession length this year, and last year they were 157th. Oregon typically plays pretty slowly, and they are doing that again this year. Oregon is 321st out of 358 in the nation in terms of pace of play. Oregon's defense should be much better this year with Quincy Guerrier in the frontcourt. He's a great shot blocker, but he isn't great on the offensive end. Jacob Young is also a good perimeter defender and he came over from Rutgers. This game is at Moda Center in Portland rather than being a true home game for Oregon. These different sites are typically helpful for the under. Both of these teams are good offensively, but the pace should be slow and the defenses are solid. Take the under.
11-16-21	Seton Hall v. Michigan OVER 138.5		67-65	Loss	-110	20 h 46 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Seton Hall has decided to play much quicker this year since they are without star big man Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Pirates rank 11th in average possession length in the country in their first two games. They are using only 13.9 seconds of the shot clock on average. Michigan has sped up their pace a bit this year as well. The Wolverines are 117th in pace on offense out of 358 teams in the country. The Wolverines should get quite a few second chance opportunities in this game because I consider Seton Hall a relatively weak defensive rebounding team. Seton Hall is allowing opponents to shoot 11% from 3 point range so far this year. Michigan is allowing opponents to shoot 19.6% from 3 point range so far this year. These are likely good perimeter defenses, but not this good! There will be some regression coming. Signs of defensive regression and a fast pace. Take the over.
11-16-21	Denver v. Texas-San Antonio UNDER 147.5		64-78	Win	100	18 h 17 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The UTSA Roadrunners no longer have Keaton Wallace or Jhivan Jackson in the backcourt. They were the stars for this team for many years. Without these two, UTSA's offense takes a huge hit. Jacob Germany is a key player for the Roadrunners now and he is a solid big man who is a pretty good shot blocker. UTSA likely slows their pace down this year without two stars in the backcourt. They no longer have the ideal team to run the floor. UTSA lost to Texas A&M Commerce (?!) on Monday night. They put up only 62 points in that one. Denver was a new coach in Jeff Wulburn. He took over for Rodney Billups who struggled mightily at Denver. The Denver defense has been atrocious in recent years. Denver is clearly slowing the pace down this year as compared to recent seasons. The Pioneers have also looked better on defense. They held IUPUI to just 47 points yesterday. This total is quite a bit higher than my projection. Take the under.
11-16-21	Yale v. Siena UNDER 142		82-54	Win	100	19 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Siena lost a lot from last year's team. The Saints are now without Jalen Pickett and that hurts them a bunch on offense. Manny Camper was a huge loss as well. Now, Siena doesn't really have a go to guy on offense. Yale has been good defensively in past seasons and I think they will be pretty good on defense again this year. Siena put up just 47 and 63 points against St. Bonnie and Delaware. Neither of these teams want to push the pace very much. This is a high total for the tempo and the question marks I have about the offenses. Take the under.
11-15-21	North Dakota State v. UNLV UNDER 132.5		62-64	Win	100	19 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Under UNLV has played in two very low scoring games already this year. UNLV won 64-58 over Gardner Webb. They then won 55-52 over Cal. North Dakota State will finish the year in the bottom 40 teams or so in the country in terms of tempo. The Bison want to play a low scoring game, and they should get their way here. UNLV has been playing much better defense so far this year under Kruger, but the offense has been stagnant to put it lightly. Neither team fouls much or gets to the line often so barring a ref show this should be a pretty clean game. Take the under.
11-15-21	Samford v. San Francisco OVER 145		55-77	Loss	-110	18 h 36 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The San Francisco Dons have a good offense. The Dons feature good outside shooters in Shabazz and Stefanini. They also have the inside game with Massalki and Tape. The Dons are likely to overwhelm the small Samford team in the halfcourt. Samford presses a bunch, and they are looking for quick turnovers and transition baskets. They should be able to get some against a San Francisco team who has turned the ball over on 23.9% of their possessions on offense so far this year. Both of these teams have struggled badly to play defense without fouling in recent seasons. I expect a lot of trips to the charity stripe in this one. This total is several points too low. Take the over.
11-15-21	Montana v. North Dakota UNDER 142.5		77-79	Loss	-110	17 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Montana Grizzlies play a lot of low scoring games. Why? Montana will rank in the bottom 60 or 70 teams in the country in pace of play nearly every year. They are also much better on defense than on offense. Offensively, this team often struggles to get in a rhythm. On the defensive side, they'll make things tough for their opponent. Mississippi State just torched the nets for 13/23 shooting from 3 point range last game against Montana. That has pushed this total too high. North Dakota isn't Mississippi State. The Fighting Hawks don't have many good shooters. North Dakota stayed under this total against fast paced Milwaukee in game one. Montana is the better team and they should dictate pace here. Take the under.
11-15-21	St. Thomas v. Fordham UNDER 145.5		78-84	Loss	-110	5 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Fordham Rams still aren't a good offensive team. Fordham has been hapless on offense the last few years. They have a new coach in Kyle Neptune, but this team hasn't just automatically become good at the outside jumper. I still expect Fordham to be in the bottom 50 in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. St. Thomas is a new Division I school this year. St. Thomas has had two pretty high scoring games this year and that has likely led to this total being steamed upward. It's important to note though that they played Chicago State and St. Francis (NY) in those games. Those are two of the bottom 20 defenses in the country. Fordham has been a top 100 defense in most recent seasons, and the Rams will at least be a much tougher defense than either of St. Thomas' first two opponents. I don't think the pace will be all that quick here. Unless both teams are shooting it well, this number is too high. Take the under.
11-14-21	Vikings v. Chargers OVER 53.5		27-20	Loss	-101	13 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Minnesota Vikings rank second in the NFL in tempo. The LA Chargers rank 5th in the NFL in tempo. Both of these teams are more than willing to go uptempo and throw it around if needed. These two defenses are badly banged up. Joey Bosa is questionable and didn't practice on Friday. Ryan Smith is out and Michael Davis is doubtful as well at the cornerback spot. Adderly and Webb are both questionable at safety. The Vikings are without star Danielle Hunter and now Anthony Barr and Michael Pierce are out as well. Breeland is questionable at cornerback for the Vikings also. The Chargers are very willing to go for it on 4th down and that can lead to more points in either direction. The two offenses are pretty healthy, and the two defenses are a mess. This one has real shootout potential. Take the over.
11-14-21	Panthers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5		34-10	Loss	-110	13 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are said to be doubtful to play according to Ian Rapoport. With Chase Edmonds out due to an ankle injury, the Cardinals will lean heavily on James Conner. Conner is a solid runner, but he isn't an explosive guy. He is more of a strong runner who can usually get you a few yards. McCoy is clearly far more conservative than Murray. If Murray does play he'll be at much less than 100%. P.J. Walker starts here for the Panthers. Walker doesn't look like an NFL quarterback in his time under center thus far. The game plan is likely to be very conservative with Walker at quarterback. The Panthers have scored just 28 points in their last three games combined. Arizona quietly has the #2 ranked defense in DVOA so far this year. The Cardinals aren't likely to give up much against this Carolina offense. On the other side, Carolina is 2nd in YPP allowed and 11th in DVOA on defense. These two teams both rank in the bottom 10 in the country in tempo this season. Take the under.
11-14-21	Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53.5		3-43	Loss	-110	132 h 17 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Dallas Cowboys were awful offensively for more than 3/4 of the game against the Denver Broncos, and yet they are still first in the NFL in yards per play so far this year. Dak Prescott looked very rusty for much of the game against the Broncos, but I expect Dak to be much better here. It helps that Atlanta has a weak pass rush and a poor group of corners as well. The Falcons defensive numbers are definitely skewed. They have played one offense in the top 12 in the NFL in yards per play all season long (Tampa Bay). They allowed 48 points in that game. Their last few games have been against bottom 10 offenses in the NFL. This is a very weak Atlanta defense. I don't think the Dallas defense is as good as many believe they are right now. They are better than last year, but that isn't saying a lot. Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL in tempo. Atlanta ranks 14th in the NFL in tempo. This one is played in a dome on the fast track. Take the over.
11-13-21	Alabama State v. Missouri State OVER 145.5		60-78	Loss	-110	17 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Missouri State Bears sped up their pace of play some last year. Missouri State Coach Dana Ford said in the offseason that Jaylen Minnett was a big pickup for his team because, "He is a dynamic scoring guard that will allow us to play an even more up-tempo, aggressive style on both ends." Missouri State played a 77 possession game (very fast) against SE Missouri State in their season opener. The Bears were the team pushing the pace in that one for the most part. Missouri State only used 14.6 seconds of the shot clock on average in that game. Alabama State has played two extremely fast paced games in their first two contests. Mo Williams is their coach and he wants this team to get up and down. Alabama State struggles badly with turnovers on the offensive end, but Missouri State hasn't forced many turnovers the last couple seasons. A lot of transition basketball in this one. The pace will be there. As long as the shooting numbers are decent I like this to fall over the total. Take the over.
11-13-21	Wizards v. Magic UNDER 203.5		104-92	Win	100	16 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Bradley Beal will miss this game following the death of his grandmother. Beal is clearly the best offensive player on this Washington team and the offense runs through him. Last year, Beal had one of the highest offensive player ratings, but he also had one of the worst defensive player ratings. The Wizards defense has been one of the best in the NBA of late. In fact, in their last three games, the Wizards have the best defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. Orlando is averaging just 0.96 points per possession on their home floor this year. The Magic just don't have enough good scoring options especially when they are taking on a talented defense. Wes Unseld Jr. has the Wizards working really hard on the defensive end. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the NBA in tempo. This is a divisional matchup and those are a positive for the under. Take the under.
11-13-21	Arkansas State v. UL-Monroe OVER 66.5		27-24	Loss	-109	22 h 6 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UL Monroe Warhawks host the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Sun Belt action here. This is far from a "good" matchup, but I see value on this one. Arkansas State ranks 12th in the nation in tempo. UL Monroe ranks 29th in the nation in tempo. Arkansas State ranks 130th in yards per play allowed (out of 130 teams). UL Monroe ranks 113th out of 130 in yards per play allowed. Arkansas State throws the ball on 60% of their offensive plays. UL Monroe ranks 117th in opponent QBR. The Red Wolves should bust some big plays here. Arkansas State's defense is the worst in the country, and it isn't close. Arkansas State has allowed a ridiculous 13 plays of 60 yards or more this season! Only one other team in the country has allowed more than 7. In fact, 15 teams have allowed zero. Arkansas State is ultra vulnerable against a fast paced offense that has home run possibilities. Both offenses rank in the top half of the country in explosiveness. Good weather is in the forecast for this one. A fast pace with two weak defenses and very little to play for is usually a good thing for a high scoring contest. Take the over here.
11-13-21	South Alabama v. Appalachian State UNDER 52.5		7-31	Win	100	46 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Appalachian State Mountaineers host the South Alabama Jaguars here. South Alabama is expected to be without Jake Bentley at quarterback. Former starter Desmond Trotter will step in and be under center here. The Jaguars haven't been able to run the ball on hardly anyone this year, and I wouldn't expect them to be able to run on Appalachian State here. South Alabama is 104th in the nation in YPC. Their offensive line allows the opponent in the backfield too often. The Appalachian State offense likes to run the football. The Mountaineers run the ball on nearly 58% of their offensive plays. South Alabama is 19th in the nation in YPC allowed. Chase Brice has been pretty good for Appalachian State this year, but I think this is a game where Appalachian State will be happy to salt this game away with the run game. The weather here is part of the reason I like the under. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 28 mph are in the forecast. That is certainly enough to change the way the game is played. A more conservative game script likely means more running clock and less chances for big plays. Take the under here.
11-12-21	UT-Rio Grande Valley v. Arizona OVER 137	Top	50-104	Win	100	18 h 16 m	Show
5 Star Top Play Over The Arizona Wildcats have been taught to play at an extremely quick tempo by their new head coach Tommy Lloyd. Arizona played faster in their first game than they did in any game last year. The Wildcats used only 13.5 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average, and that is despite the fact that they had a large lead throughout most of that game. Arizona won 81-52 and that game stayed under the total. There were two things that kept that game under the total. Northern Arizona decided to go zone and try to slow the game down. Northern Arizona also was dreadful shooting the basketball. They put up just 0.74 points per possession. UT Rio Grande Valley has a new coach too in Matt Figgers. Figgers is known as a great offensive coach, but his teams aren't usually very good on defense. Figgers said he has encouraged Ricky Nelson to push the pace from the point guard spot as much as he can this year. Look for UT Rio Grande to try to get in transition when they can as well. Arizona is too good offensively for UT Rio Grande Valley to slow them down. In this case, Arizona is playing a team who clearly wants to play quickly. The total is set lower than their first game which saw the total steamed up to 145 points against Northern Arizona. I had this total set quite a bit higher than this. Take the over. Top Rated Play.
11-12-21	Indiana State v. Purdue OVER 142.5		67-92	Win	100	17 h 23 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Josh Schertz promised to have this Indiana State team playing much faster this year. He came over from Lincoln Memorial (D II powerhouse school) where his teams always played extremely fast. In game one against Wisconsin Green Bay (a team that wants to play slowly), Indiana State forced the tempo very well. The Sycamores won 81-77 in a game that played to a quick 73 possessions. Purdue has an impressive amount of offensive weapons this year. Jaden Ivey is a breakout candidate. Stefanovic is an excellent outside shooter. Edey and Williams are next to impossible to guard on the inside. Purdue piled up 96 points on Bellarmine in the season opener. Indiana State doesn't have the talent and length to stop them defensively either. Take the over.
11-12-21	Abilene Christian v. Texas A&M UNDER 131		80-81	Loss	-110	17 h 52 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Abilene Christian was elite defensively last year, and they were no better than mediocre on offense. They lost some of their best offensive talent from a year ago and they have a new head coach. Texas A&M wants to grind games down and win with their defense and tenacity. Buzz Williams has a team with a lot of length that I think can really bother Abilene Christian. On the other hand, Texas A&M doesn't have good guards that I trust with breaking Abiliene Christian's aggressive trapping defense without turning it over a lot. I expect both teams to have a lot of wasted empty possessions where they don't even get a shot up in this one. Take the under.
11-10-21	Mavs v. Bulls UNDER 215.5		107-117	Loss	-110	6 h 4 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Chicago Bulls have improved a bunch on the defensive end. It's the number one reason this team has been so successful this season. The team made a lot of transactions in the offseason, and that has led to defense being prioritized much more by the current starters for Chicago. The Dallas Mavericks have been very slow with their tempo this year. Dallas ranks 24th in pace of play this season. Chicago is a slightly below average 17th in tempo. Dallas ranks 15th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Bulls rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. We have seen the way officials are calling the game in the NBA this year and how it has helped the under. The new basketball likely plays a role as well. In this year's NBA, this is a pretty high total. Take the under.
11-09-21	Northern Arizona v. Arizona OVER 138.5		52-81	Loss	-110	30 h 54 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Arizona Wildcats are going to play much faster this year under first year head coach Tommy Lloyd. He said his top priority early in the season is to get this team running and pushing the pace. The Wildcats have very athletic big men this year who will be able to dominate the weak Northern Arizona defense in the frontcourt. Northern Arizona's coach said before the season that he feels he has more guys who are capable of pushing the tempo than he has had in recent years. It's a good thing because they are likely to need to push the tempo most of the way here since they should be down by quite a few through this game. The last two years these two have played the game went over the total both times and that was with slower paced teams. Take the over.
11-09-21	Texas-Arlington v. Oklahoma State OVER 144		45-88	Loss	-110	29 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Oklahoma State Cowboys are without Cade Cunningham, but this team showed they can score last year even without Cade in the lineup. The pace for Boynton's teams will always be quick. UT Arlington has a new head coach, Greg Young, and he said his top priority is for this UT Arlington team to revert back to the extremely fast tempo they played at a few years ago. Here is a great chance for them to do just that against an Oklahoma State team that likes to run as well. Take the over.
11-09-21	Indiana State v. Green Bay OVER 139		81-77	Win	100	29 h 22 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Indiana State Sycamores are a team I expect to undergo a major "pace change" this year with their new head coach Josh Schertz. Schertz has been at Division II powerhouse Lincoln Memorial for years and that team has pushed the pace to the extreme while he was there. He said in the preseason he wants there to be a much quicker tempo for Indiana State. Will Ryan coaches Green Bay and they don't play very fast, but they are very weak defensively so they still had quite a few pretty high scoring games last season. I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough here. Take the over.
11-09-21	Abilene Christian v. Utah UNDER 138.5		56-70	Win	100	29 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Both of these teams have new coaches this year. Both of these also lost a ton of star power off their team from a year ago. Though Joe Golding is gone at Abilene Christian I would expect their defense to stay very strong and their offense to be scrappy but not efficient. Craig Smith is the new coach at Utah. Smith is an excellent defensive coach. The Utes are very short handed on offense this year, but I expect them to play very well defensively for their coach. The pace here should be relatively slow and I expect both teams to have to work very hard for open looks. Take the under.
11-09-21	Maryland-Baltimore County v. Massachusetts OVER 144.5		60-77	Loss	-110	27 h 53 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Big pace change coming for UMBC. Ryan Odom is gone and Jim Ferry is their new head coach. Ferry's teams have pushed the tempo year after year. Odom's teams played a lot of low scoring tight games. UMass was happy to run last year and I think they'll play fast enough again for this one to get past the posted total unless there is terrible shooting numbers across the board. UMBC's totals will look a lot different this year. I don't the oddsmakers have adjusted enough here. Take the over.
11-07-21	Chargers v. Eagles OVER 50		27-24	Win	100	121 h 24 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The LA Chargers rank second in the NFL in tempo. The Philadelphia Eagles rank 6th in the NFL in tempo. There should be a lot of snaps here. We don't have a posted total that is set particularly high given that pace of play either. The Chargers strength is throwing the football. The Eagles defensive weakness is still their secondary. I would expect Justin Herbert and his wideouts to have a nice day here on Sunday. Austin Ekeler played despite being banged up last Sunday, and he averaged a very impresssive 5.8 yards per carry. The Eagles rank 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry. The Chargers are dead last in YPC allowed. The Eagles offensive front should allow them to be able to run on the Chargers here. The weather for this matchup looks good thus far. Jerome Boger's crew will be officiated this game. This is the best "over" crew in the business thanks to their defensive holding and pass interference calls. Take the over in this one.
11-07-21	Broncos v. Cowboys OVER 48.5		30-16	Loss	-111	11 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Denver Broncos aren't nearly the defense people expected them to be at the beginning of the season. Denver got rid of Von Miller and that clearly is a hit. They also have several very key injuries. Bradley Chubb, Bryce Callahan, Josey Jewell, and AJ Johnson are all out here. The Dallas Cowboys have the best offense in the NFL. They aren't the team you want to be going against with a multitude of defensive injuries. Dak Prescott is expected to be back here, and he has two great running backs in Elliot and Pollard in the backfield. Lamb is questionable on the outside, but Dallas still has several top notch wide receivers. The Cowboys defense is improved, but they aren't as good as many believe now. Dallas still ranks as a bottom five defense in yards per play allowed. Teddy Bridgewater has Jeudy back on the outside and the Cowboys are unlikely to get too much pressure on Bridgewater here. Dallas has scored 29 points or more in all but one game that Prescott has started (20 against the Chargers- they had a whopping 7.0 YPP in that one too). They should hit 30 or more here again. Take the over.
11-06-21	Houston v. South Florida UNDER 55		54-42	Loss	-110	113 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Houston Cougars defense ranks 5th in the country in success rate allowed. They are 13th in YPP allowed and that is despite a high scoring contest against an elite SMU offense this past weekend. Houston won't be up against anything like that here. USF is 99th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Bulls try to run the ball as much as possible, but Houston's strength is their run defense. The Cougars are 4th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at just 2.82. Houston's offense isn't special. Clayton Tune is more of a game manager and this Houston team ranks 105th in the nation in pace of play. The Cougars should be happy to get a lead and run the block and play conservatively. Houston only gave up 355 yards against SMU. The Cougars defense has been dominant much of the year. They should be great again here. Take the under.
11-06-21	Oregon v. Washington UNDER 51		26-16	Win	100	43 h 32 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies in Seattle on Saturday evening. The weather forecast in Seattle is pretty extreme over the next few days. What's in the forecast? A bunch of rain day after day. It's pretty wet in general in Seattle, but this is extreme weather. For a couple days there will be fairly significant winds as well. One of those days is Saturday. Sustained winds of about 18 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are forecast for this one. I would expect a more conservative game plan from both teams in this one. What will it mean? Likely a bunch of running the football. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the country at preventing explosive plays. Washington isn't a very good run defense, but they will likely put more people in the box in these conditions. Oregon isn't quite as explosive on the ground without Verdell either. Washington's ground game isn't good. The Huskies rank 100th in ypc on the season. They are up against an Oregon defense that ranks 29th in ypc allowed this year. None of Washington's Pac 12 games have gone over this total in regulation this year. Now we add in some bad weather. Take the under here. Update- This line is moving down as more people are seeing the weather forecast here. I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 49 and a 3 star rating down to 47. Thank you.
11-06-21	Clemson v. Louisville UNDER 47		30-24	Loss	-110	24 h 56 m	Show
3 Star Play Under One of Clemson's ACC games has gone over 45 points in regulation. Which one was it? It was last week's contest against Florida State which should have finished with 43 points but for the laterals backward 40 yards and a touchdown at the final whistle for a terrible beat on the under. Louisville plays slowly, but relies on a pretty efficient running game to be successful on the offensive end. While Clemson's offense is a mess, the Tigers still have an elite defense. How good are they? Clemson ranks 7th in YPP allowed this year. They are 9th in the country in success rate allowed. I don't think Louisville will have an easy time navigating things against this Clemson front seven. The Clemson offense has no real identity. The Tigers rank 111th in the nation in yards per play. Louisville's defense has improved in recent weeks and I think the Cardinals can hold Clemson in check as other teams have this season. Take the under.
11-06-21	Marshall v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 57.5		28-13	Win	100	22 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Marshall Thundering Herd and Florida Atlantic Owls both play pretty fast so taking an under here doesn't feel great initially, but once you look at the matchup more closely I think there is value. Marshall is all about throwing it around. Florida Atlantic's defense ranks 6th best in the country in opponent QBR. The Owls have an elite secondary. Grant Wells has struggled against the top secondaries he has faced so far this year. Marshall's rushing attack isn't very good. Florida Atlantic's N'Kosi Perry has been terrible when under pressure this year, and Marshall ranks in the top six in the country in pass rush grade. The Thundering Herd should get a lot of heat on Perry here. I see both offenses having some big negative plays and getting behind the sticks. Even if they move the ball down the field, there could be some field goals instead of touchdowns. The defenses have the upper hand. Winds of about 20 mph during this game are definitely a positive for the under as well. Take the under.
11-06-21	Kansas State v. Kansas UNDER 57		35-10	Win	100	106 h 57 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Kansas State Wildcats have played one game all season that has gone over this posted total. Their opponent in that game was the Oklahoma Sooners. Kansas State ranks 4th in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed. They are 30th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They have been pretty good at preventing explosive plays especially in the running game. Kansas' offense isn't good at anything, but they are especially bad if you force them to throw the ball. I expect Kansas State to do precisely that in this contest. Kansas State ranks 127th in the nation in pace of play. Kansas ranks 121st in the nation in pace of play. It is very rare you'll see a posted total set this high in a game with two teams who play this slowly. Kansas has only allowed 15 plays of 30 yards or more. The Jayhawks will give up yards and points, but it is likely to usually be longer drives from Kansas State that take quite a bit of time. Take the under here.
11-06-21	Illinois v. Minnesota UNDER 44		14-6	Win	100	16 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Illinois Fighting Illini have played six straight games that have finished with a total of 38 points or fewer. Illinois has been an under machine. The Fighting Illini defense has improved throughout the season. They have a very good set of safeties to lead the defense. The Illinois offense is still a mess. Peters isn't healthy enough and the offensive line has been disappointing. Minnesota is on their third string running back. They have still been good running the football, and I do think they'll get their rushing yards here. It's key to point out the pace that Minnesota plays at. Minnesota ranks 129th in the tempo in the country. Only one team is using more time between plays than them and that is Army. The Golden Gophers are 14.5 point favorites here. They should have the lead late and that would mean they are using the clock and trying to end the contest. That's a good game script for the under. Take the under here.
11-03-21	Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 215.5		98-103	Win	100	6 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Tobias Harris in this one. Harris was averaging 19.8 points per game. They'll also be without long range shooter Danny Green. Joel Embiid will be back for this contest. The 76ers rank dead last in the NBA in tempo this year, and it isn't even close. They have really slowed their pace down a lot this season. The Bulls rank 20th in tempo, so they are slower than an average team as well. The Bulls are 6th in defensive efficiency in the NBA. The 76ers are a solid 14th. Both of these defenses tend to put up a pretty good fight. Brian Forte and Scott Twardowski are two of the best "under" officials in the NBA. Both of them have seen more than 54% of their games all time stay under the total. Both are officiating this contest. Take the under.
11-02-21	Braves v. Astros OVER 9		7-0	Loss	-100	18 h 44 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Houston Astros have had the best offense in baseball all year. Houston's bats busted out of a slump in Game 5. They hit Max Fried hard earlier this series. I don't see any series to think they won't hit the ball well here. Fried has allowed 11 runs in his last two starts. Luis Garcia has had a bad postseason. Garcia has a 7.62 ERA in the postseason thus far. Garcia is on an odd rest schedule. He's pitching on just 3 days rest instead of his normal, since he came out of the bullpen and threw 72 pitches on Friday night. Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire here. The over is 46-31 in his last 77 games behind home plate. He has proven to be a hitter friendly umpire over the long term. I think both offenses will create plenty of scoring chances here. Take the over.
10-31-21	Bucs v. Saints UNDER 50		27-36	Loss	-110	62 h 24 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The New Orleans Saints are a completely different team than they were a few years ago. The Saints are now a defense first team. New Orleans has a top five defense in the NFL. They actually have gotten a bit healthier of late, and the Saints already rank 3rd in the NFL in YPP allowed so far this year. New Orleans is 31st in pace of play. With Jameis Winston, the Saints staff has decided to play it very safe and I don't blame them one bit. The Saints have ran the ball on 55% of their offensive snaps so far this year. That is easily first in the NFL. Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the NFL. I don't see the Saints having all that much success on the ground here. The Bucs have a great offense, but the Saints defense has given Tom Brady some trouble in recent seasons. I think they'll have a good scheme again here. Will they shut them down? No. I do think they can slow them down though. Take the under.
10-31-21	Washington Football Team v. Broncos OVER 44.5		10-17	Loss	-110	13 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Washington Football team secondary has been as bad as any in football. Washington has allowed 30 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Washington's offense didn't punt a single time last week against Green Bay. Somehow they managed only 10 points. They put up 6.1 yards per play on Green Bay though and that was an encouraging sign for this team. Denver gets Jerry Jeudy back for this game and he should be able to take advantage of the Washington secondary. Teddy Bridgewater is an underrated quarterback and I expect him to play well here. This is a very low total with a favorable weather forecast for this one. Denver has a ton of key injuries on defense. At a full strength they are a good defense, but right now they are no better than mediocre. Take the over.
10-30-21	Fresno State v. San Diego State OVER 44.5		30-20	Win	100	27 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The San Diego State Aztecs clearly have a good defense. San Diego State has proven they are good against the run. Their pass defense looks very good by the numbers, but they haven't been tested by anyone. Let's look at the offenses they have faced thus far: New Mexico State (Terrible team in general), Arizona (awful passing attack), Utah (before the switch to Cam Rising), Towson (FCS team), New Mexico (Bottom 15 passing attack in country), San Jose State (with a backup quarterback), and Air Force (they just run it all the time). San Diego State has a pretty good pass defense, but I'm not convinced they are as good as the numbers would make you think right now. Fresno State ranks 9th in the nation in passing play success rate. Jake Haener has been tremendous and Jalen Cropper is an elite wide receiver. Fresno State's run defense has been beaten by some teams this year. San Diego State has been running it better in recent weeks. The Aztecs are accustomed to coasting late in the game and using up the clock. I think Fresno State will score enough that San Diego State will have to keep going until the final whistle here. A total of 44.5 is extremely low when one of the teams is as good offensively as Fresno State. Take the over.
10-30-21	Southern Miss v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 48.5		10-35	Win	100	37 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Southern Miss Golden Eagles defense is a pretty solid unit. Southern Miss ranks 39th in defensive success rate allowed. They have given up quite a few big plays this year, but Alabama skewed those stats some and they obviously don't play any other team that has talent like that. The Golden Eagles are especially strong against the run. Southern Miss is atrocious on offense. The Golden Eagles are 129th out of 130 in the country in yards per play. They are averaging only 4.08 ypp even in CUSA play against really weak defenses. They are putting up a miserable 1.56 ypc in CUSA action. The Golden Eagles have scored 32 points in their last 3 games combined. Middle Tennessee State is 98th in the country in yards per play on offense. The Blue Raiders have some success throwing the football, but their rushing attack has been very weak. MTSU is good in the secondary, but they are weak against the run. Southern Miss hasn't been able to run it against anyone so far this year. Showers are in the forecast for this game (not heavy), but they could change the game some. The winds are expected to be 12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph during this one. Take the under.
10-30-21	Indiana v. Maryland UNDER 49.5		35-38	Loss	-110	82 h 10 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Indiana has scored a grand total of 28 points in their four Big Ten contests. It looks like they might be without their top two quarterbacks (Penix and Tuttle) in this one. Against Ohio State, they had to play McCulley and Gremel quite a bit and the offense went nowhere fast. McCulley was 1/6 for 30 yards passing. Gremel was 3/4 for 9 yards passing. Maryland has been far less dynamic in the passing game without Demas on the field. The Terrapins have shown they are willing to slow the game down and run it more when they have a lead. They are favored in this contest. Indiana's running game has been non-existent for the last two years. The Hoosiers offensive front is terrible. Maryland has taken on some good offenses in recent weeks and their defensive stats are a bit skewed. In their current state, Indiana is a terrible offensive team. The Hoosiers are still coached by a good defensive mind and I think their defense can improve the rest of the way. Take the under.
10-30-21	Texas v. Baylor OVER 60.5		24-31	Loss	-105	82 h 9 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Texas Longhorns have picked up their pace. In their last couple games they have been playing about two seconds per play faster than they did earlier in the season. Texas ranks 12th in the nation in yards per play on the season. Thompson has done a good job at quarterback. Bijan Robinson is the star of the team, and he has been doing some major damage. Baylor's Gerry Bohanon has been tremendous at quarterback for the Bears. The Bears offensive line also ranks in the top 5 in the nation at PFF in both pass blocking and run blocking grade. Baylor's offense ranks 3rd in the nation in yards per play. Texas' defense ranks 109th in YPP allowed. Baylor ranks 35th in the nation in yards per play. Both teams have given up a lot of big plays this year. Baylor has already allowed 32 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. Texas has already allowed 38 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. These offenses should be able to bust big plays here. Baylor's contests against West Virginia and BYU topped this total. Oklahoma State slowed down both of these offenses, but that is the best defense in the Big 12 and neither of these defenses are on that level. I made this total several points higher. Take the over.
10-30-21	Rutgers v. Illinois UNDER 42		20-14	Win	100	16 h 9 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Illinois Fighting Illini have become a tremendous under team. Illinois is coming off a 9 OT game that finished 20-18. Illinois has played 5 straight games that have finished with 38 points or less. Joseph has been tremendous at safety for Illinois this year, he's rated as the single best safety in the country by PFF so far this year. The Illinois offense is running the football early and often. Look for them to play it very safe here as Peters is back under center and he isn't completely healthy. Rutgers is coming off a game where they put up only 7 points against a bad Northwestern defense. The Scarlet Knights are 119th in the nation in yards per play. Illinois is 118th in the nation in yards per play. Both of these teams aren't explosive at all on offense. This projects as a grind it out type game where both teams struggle to get big chunk plays. Rutgers has just 7 plays of 30 yards or more all year. Look for field goals instead of touchdowns and a lot of punting the football in this Big Ten battle. Take the under.
10-27-21	Grizzlies v. Blazers OVER 234		96-116	Loss	-108	9 h 48 m	Show
3 Star Play Over This is a very high total, but it is very high for a good reason. Portland is easily playing at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA. Damian Lillard has shot the ball terribly so far this season. How bad? Lillard is shooting 8% from 3 point range. He is shooting just 36% overall. The Blazers have still had 2 of their 3 games go over this posted total. Memphis has played 3 games and their lowest scoring game finished at 234 points. The other two were 239 and 253 points. The Grizzlies have a great offense and arguably their best defender, Dillon Brooks, is out with an injury. The Blazers are coming off a very low scoring output on a terrible shooting night. The Clippers are far better defensively than the Grizzlies though. Betting the over in the next game after a team has gone way under has been a profitable strategy in the NBA as well. The pace will be there. I think more shots will fall as well. Take the over.
10-25-21	Saints v. Seahawks UNDER 43		13-10	Win	100	90 h 47 m	Show
4 Star Play Under What do the Seattle Seahawks want to do a lot more of now that Russell Wilson is out? They want to run the football and be far more conservative. That isn't likely to work well against the #1 rushing defense in the NFL. The Saints are giving up just 3.35 ypc on the season thus far. New Orleans ranks as the slowest paced team in the NFL. They clearly don't trust Jameis Winston and they are running on 57% of their offensive plays so far this year. The Saints are just 25th in the NFL in yards per play. Rain and wind is in the forecast for this one. Winds of 15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph should change the game and help the defense even more. Take the under.
10-24-21	Colts v. 49ers UNDER 44		30-18	Loss	-110	65 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The weather doesn't often play a major role in games played in Santa Clara, but it looks like it will play a very big role on Sunday night. Historic rains are headed for California and the west coast in general in the next few days. Forecasts currently call for 3-4 inches of rain on Sunday alone in the Santa Clara area. What about the wind? Sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph are in the forecast. The Colts rank 26th in the NFL in tempo. The 49ers rank 22nd in the NFL in tempo. With these conditions we should see a lot of running plays and that means a moving clock far more often than in a normal NFL game. The under has been very good at Santa Clara in the past because of the thick grass. This surface could be a real mess in this kind of rainstorm. Take the under.
10-24-21	Jets v. Patriots UNDER 42.5		13-54	Loss	-110	120 h 49 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New England Patriots and New York Jets met earlier this season. The Patriots won that game 25-6. The two teams averaged just 4.9 and 4.6 yards per play in that contest. New England and New York both play at a tempo slower than the NFL average. Both teams struggle badly to get big plays. New England has only 1 play of 40 yards or more all season. The Jets have only 18 plays of 20 yards or more (27th best in the NFL). Both teams have struggled badly in the red zone on offense as well. The Jets defense is above average against the run. The Patriots prefer to run the football when they can. The Patriots offense is very vanilla with Mac Jones at quarterback. The Jets offense has no running game. The Jets shockingly have zero rushing plays of 20 yards or more all year. They are one of only two teams in the NFL to have 0 rushing plays of 20 yards or more. It looks like there be some wind in this game- nothing extreme but enough to possibly make both offenses a bit more conservative. Take the under.
10-23-21	Utah v. Oregon State UNDER 57.5		34-42	Loss	-110	23 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oregon State Beavers and Utah Utes meet in Corvallis on Saturday night. The weather here calls for quite a bit of rain during the day and again later at night in Corvallis. There should be some showers and a bit of a breeze during this game. Oregon State prefers to run the football. The Beavers have a pretty good game manager in Chance Nolan at QB, but the Beavers are all about the run. In fact, in Pac 12 play 71% of their plays have been runs. Utah's defense ranks 1st in Pac 12 play at stopping the run. Utah and Oregon State both rank in the top 25 in the country in terms of not giving up big plays. That's important especially when the weather could play a factor in the game and the total isn't all that low. Utah's Cam Rising has improved the Utes offense, but Utah has been getting off to slow starts each week. Corvallis is no easy place to play and the Utes are in a bit of a tough spot here. Oregon State ranks 100th out of 130 teams in terms of pace of play. Utah has played quite a bit slower in their last couple games as well. The tempo here shouldn't be very fast. Take the under.
10-23-21	Oklahoma State v. Iowa State UNDER 47.5		21-24	Win	100	19 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oklahoma State Cowboys are unbeaten, but they are a flawed team. The Cowboys offense isn't good at all. Spencer Sanders is a poor passer. Sanders ranks 83rd at PFF in quarterback grade this year. He isn't connecting on any deep plays this year in the passing game. The Oklahoma State offense will have to be able to run here. Can they? Iowa State is 7th in the nation in yards per carry allowed this season. The Cyclones should make it hard on the Cowboys to get going here. Iowa State prefers to play at a slow pace. The Cyclones rank 110th in the nation out of 130 teams in terms of tempo. Iowa State's running game hasn't been as good as expected this year. Oklahoma State has what I believe is the best defense in the Big 12 (2nd is probably Iowa State). The Cowboys are tremendous against the run. Oklahoma State should slow down Breece Hall here. Iowa State is favored here and if they are playing from the lead that likely would lead to more conservative play and a slow tempo. Take the under.
10-23-21	Wisconsin v. Purdue UNDER 41		30-13	Loss	-110	18 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Purdue Boilermakers are coming off a 24-7 win at Iowa. Purdue has made a habit out of having very low scoring games this year. In fact their last four games have finished with a total of: 40 points, 22 points, 33 points, and 31 points. Wisconsin has already played three games this year that finished with a total of 34 points or less. The Badgers defense is elite. They rank 1st in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 3rd in the nation in yards per play allowed on defense. The Badgers have given up some points in games where their defense was excellent (Notre Dame for example) because of turnovers and special teams touchdowns. The Boilermakers aren't going to be able to run the ball. Purdue is averaging 2.75 ypc on the year. Wisconsin has good corners and I expect Jim Leonard to have a good plan for defending David Bell. The Purdue defense is underrated. They rank 7th in the nation in success rate allowed. Wisconsin's offense isn't good at all. Graham Mertz has been bad, and the running game isn't up to par either. The Badgers are 101st in the nation in yards per play on offense. Look for a hard fought battle here. Take the under.
10-23-21	Kent State v. Ohio OVER 62.5		34-27	Loss	-110	133 h 14 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Kent State Golden Flashes struggled offensively in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but that was largely because they faced great defenses. Kent State had to go up against Texas A&M and Iowa and even a pretty good Maryland defense. Kent State is now in the MAC where their uptempo offense should be able to pile up points against most of the defenses. Kent State has scored 27, 48, and 31 points in their last three games. The only defense that ranks slightly worse than Ohio that Kent State has played so far this year (of FBS opponents) is Buffalo. That is the game Kent scored 48 points. Ohio has a good running attack. They really aren't good at anything else. Ohio ran for nearly 400 yards on Akron. They ran for 271 yards against Buffalo last week. Kent State has an awful run defense. They are allowing 5.42 yards per carry. The Bobcats should get a big day from their running backs and quarterback Armani Rogers on the ground here. Kent State plays at an ultra fast tempo. The Golden Flashes rank 2nd in the country in tempo. They have played much faster in MAC action than in non-conference action. They are averaging less than 19 seconds between plays. When these two teams last met in 2019 the final was 45-38. Expect another high scoring game. Take the over.
10-22-21	Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5		0-5	Loss	-115	18 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Boston Red Sox start Nate Eovaldi here. While he has been a good pitcher for Boston, I'm not confident Eovaldi will be good in this game. Eovaldi threw 24 pitches in relief in game four and is off his normal schedule. Also, the Houston Astros lineup has torched Eovaldi in his career. This Astros lineup has a tremendous .389 weighted on base average against Eovaldi in 104 at bats. Luis Garcia was hit hard earlier in this series by the Red Sox. The Boston offense has been absolutely on fire in the postseason. This team is hitting for power in a way that almost no team before them has in the postseason. Alan Porter is a hitter-friendly umpire and he'll be behind the plate here. These are arguably the two best offenses in baseball. Every game in this series has reached at least 9 runs. I think this one will as well. Take the over.
10-17-21	Cardinals v. Browns UNDER 50.5		37-14	Loss	-110	122 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Arizona Cardinals and the Cleveland Browns meet in Cleveland on Sunday. These two teams are 7th and 14th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The offenses are solid, but they don't play fast. It might surprise you to know that Arizona ranks 24th in overall tempo this year. Cleveland ranks an even slower 29th. Cleveland is coming off a high scoring game and that is part of the reason the total is so high here. This game appears to setup differently though. The weather for this game looks highly suspect. Right now, there are winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the forecast. We saw last year what the extreme wind from the lake in Cleveland can do to make a game much lower scoring. Even without extreme weather I think this projects as a game where both teams can limit the big plays from the other side. The weather is a great bonus though. Look for a hard fought game with more running of the football than a normal NFL game, which will keep the clock moving. Take the under.
10-17-21	Chiefs v. Washington Football Team OVER 55.5		31-13	Loss	-104	118 h 32 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Washington Football team has allowed 30 points or more to every team they have played this year. Now, they host the Kansas City Chiefs who have arguably the best offense in football. It isn't going to go well for the Washington defense in this game either. Buffalo put up 43 points on this Washington defense. Kansas City is 2-3 and they should be upset after their home loss to the Bills on Sunday night. I'll be very surprised if Mahomes and company aren't on point offensively against this terrible Washington secondary. Speaking of bad defenses, the Kansas City Chiefs rank last in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and it isn't even close. Washington is a middle of the road offense, but I think Taylor Heinicke and company can have a good game here against the very weak Chiefs defense. Washington has averaged 26.75 points per game in their last four games. They should put up a good number here again. Two terrible secondaries and the quarterbacks should take advantage. Take the over.
10-17-21	Bengals v. Lions UNDER 47		34-11	Win	100	11 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cincinnati Bengals is one of the most improved defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati has drafted some very solid linebackers the last couple seasons and it is starting to pay off. The Bengals are also much stronger on the defensive line now. It helps that the Bengals defense has stayed much healthier so far this season too. The Detroit Lions wide receivers are the worst in the NFL. They are now without their top two wideouts for this game due to injury also. Their star center Ragnow is also out with an injury. Jared Goff is pretty good as a game manager, but he isn't surrounded by much talent here now, and the Bengals defensive front should be in the backfield a lot here. Joe Mixon is still banged up for the Bengals. He'll likely play, but he isn't 100 percent healthy. Joe Burrow is a very good quarterback, but the offensive line in front of him is very weak. Burrow was knocked around last week again and I think the play calling here could be pretty conservative from the Bengals. The Lions defense isn't supremely talented by any means, but they have been playing really hard for Dan Campbell. This Lions defense has looked much better in recent weeks. They have allowed just 19, 24, and 19 points against the Ravens, Bears, and Vikings in their last three games. Take the under here.
10-16-21	Air Force v. Boise State OVER 51		24-17	Loss	-106	53 h 29 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Air Force Falcons defense is improved this year, but I don't think it is as good as it looks on paper. Air Force has played a schedule of very weak offenses, especially in the passing game. Air Force has gone against Lafayette (FCS), Navy, Utah State, Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, and Wyoming. Only one of those teams has an above average passing attack (Utah State). Utah State won at Air Force 49-45. Boise State doesn't play at the extremely fast pace that Utah State does, but they are 37th out of 130 in pace of play, so the Broncos do play pretty fast. Boise State is much better in the passing game than the running game. Boise State is 39th in the country in passing play success rate. In the last 4 meetings between these two teams Boise State has scored 44. 48, 30, and 49 points by themselves. I don't think they'll put up a huge number here, but I do think they can move the ball through the air and score here. On the other side, Air Force is excellent in the running game. They are averaging 5.13 yards per carry on the season. Boise State is just 91st in the country in yards per carry allowed (4.43). So far this year, Boise State has allowed only 10 touchdowns on 23 trips into the red zone. That will regress to the mean. Boise State's defense can't keep bending without breaking all the time. Air Force has been very efficient in the red zone thanks to their triple option attack. Take the over here.
10-16-21	Vanderbilt v. South Carolina UNDER 51.5		20-21	Win	100	18 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The South Carolina Gamecocks play at a very slow pace. South Carolina ranks 109th in pace of play. The Gamecocks are a run first team as well. They have run the ball on more than 55% of their offensive plays this season. Vanderbilt is a weak team overall. The Commodores are even worse offensively than on defense. Vanderbilt ranks 127th in success rate on offense. They usually rely on the pass, but South Carolina's strongest unit is their secondary. It would be a surprise to see Vanderbilt have much success at all on offense in this game. South Carolina is likely to be happy to salt the game away by running the football and using up a lot of clock. There is a bit of wind and a slight chance of showers here that would just be a bonus as well. Take the under.
10-16-21	Purdue v. Iowa UNDER 43		24-7	Win	100	17 h 12 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Iowa Hawkeyes defense ranks second best in the country in nearly every major category. Only the Georgia Bulldogs defense has been better. Iowa has only allowed 4.02 yards per play on the year despite playing a top 10 strength of schedule so far. The Hawkeyes have been stingy against the run all year and Purdue is averaging 1.92 yards per carry in the Big Ten so far this year. Purdue has to do it through the air and this Hawkeyes defense is elite. I don't think Purdue will get many scoring chances. Iowa's offense hasn't been very good this year. Spencer Petras is inconsistent and the Hawkeyes have relied on short fields for many of their scores. Iowa ranks 121st in yards per play in the country. Purdue ranks 3rd in the nation in defensive success rate. This Boilermakers defense has been very good so far this season. The weather at kickoff time here will be windy with gusts of 20 mph. The winds will slow down through the game, but it should make it harder for the passing games to work. Take the under.
10-16-21	Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 57.5		26-27	Win	100	58 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Buffalo Bulls host the Ohio Bobcats in a MAC contest on Saturday afternoon. The weather forecast for Saturday afternoon in Buffalo is for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 35 mph. There are showers expected during this game, especially early in the game. That kind of weather really can change the game. Windy unders have been very good long term especially when there is precipitation involved as well. Both of these teams like to run the football a lot, and in these conditions I would expect the defenses to try to load up the box to stop the run. Neither offense gets big plays all that often, so even if they move the ball down the field it should take quite a bit of time. If the two offenses are as one dimensional as I expect with the conditions like this, it makes the under a much more attractive wager. Take the under here.
10-14-21	Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7		2-1	Win	100	32 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Dodgers and Giants square off on Thursday night in Game 5. The winner moves on and the loser goes home. The stakes couldn't be higher. All hands will be on deck for this game. There is no holding back your top pitchers. This is a must win in every way. Julio Urias starts for the Dodgers and Logan Webb starts for the Giants. Urias has a 2.61 career ERA against the Giants. His ERA is 2.92 at San Francisco. The Dodgers do have good depth pitching wise and they shouldn't be afraid to use that if Urias struggles. Webb has held the current Dodgers lineup to a very low .208 average and a .266 OBP in his career. He pitched brilliantly against them earlier in this series. Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this game. There isn't a better under umpire in baseball than Eddings. He has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire in the last five years. The pitchers should get the benefit of the doubt from him here. Take the under here.
10-10-21	Giants v. Cowboys OVER 52		20-44	Win	100	14 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The New York Giants rank 8th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The offensive line has been far better than expected. Daniel Jones has played pretty well this year as well. Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph are great in the passing game in the middle of the field and Dallas is weak when it comes to defending tight ends in the passing game. The Giants are scoring a touchdown on only 33.33% of their trips into the red zone so far this year. That should positively regress over time, and that would mean the Giants could start piling up the points. Dallas has an elite offense. They might be the second best offense in the NFL (Chiefs 1st) right now. Dallas is so well balanced and Dak Prescott is a great fit in this offense. Dallas is averaging 31.5 points per game, and they have played some very good defenses this year. This is the worst ranked defense they have faced yet. The Cowboys should light up the scoreboard here. Dallas has shown they will let the opposition score a lot when the Cowboys are playing from the lead. On a fast track here I like the chances of a high scoring game. Take the over.
10-10-21	49ers v. Cardinals OVER 48		10-17	Loss	-110	13 h 10 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The San Francisco 49ers expect to start Trey Lance in this one and George Kittle is expected to be out of the lineup. That's clearly a negative for the over, but that is more than accounted for in this number. San Francisco was pretty good offensively last week. They averaged 6.3 yards per play against Seattle, but had some big mistakes that cost them. Arizona is an offensive machine right now. Kyler Murray is playing as well as anyone. The Cardinals have so many weapons all over the field and Murray is great at getting everyone involved. San Francisco has home run ability in the run game, and Arizona ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Trey Lance will help the run game and I think that could be tough to stop for Arizona throughout this one. The 49ers secondary gives up too many big plays, and Arizona has been piling up the big plays this year. Take the over.
10-10-21	Bears v. Raiders OVER 45		20-9	Loss	-110	13 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Chicago Bears offense looked quite a bit better last weekend despite playing in less than ideal weather conditions. Justin Fields clearly is the quarterback you want starting if you want potential for points. He has bigger downfield passing potential, but he also can make some mistakes that give the other team a short field sometimes. The Las Vegas Raiders offense has been very good this year. Derek Carr has big playmakers in the passing game. The Bears defense is an average or slightly below average unit now. Akiem Hicks is out for this one and Khalil Mack is questionable. Those are key injuries. Las Vegas should have chances to put together some great drives. Early season games in domes have been good over bets in the NFL especially at low totals. This one fits the bill. Take the over.
10-09-21	Michigan v. Nebraska UNDER 50		32-29	Loss	-100	23 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Under There will be a bunch of running the football in this game. Nebraska is running the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year. Michigan is running the ball on 71% of their plays this year. A moving clock is certainly a good thing for the under. Michigan's running attack has been good, but they haven't played many good run defenses. I think Nebraska is underrated in the front seven on defense. The Cornhuskers have been much better than expected this year on defense. Michigan scored just 20 points against Rutgers and they averaged less than 3 yards per carry against Wisconsin a week ago. Nebraska's running attack has been good as well, but Michigan is likely to be in the backfield a lot here. The Cornhuskers offensive line has been overwhelmed by the best defensive lines they have faced this season. Nebraska consistently struggles in the red zone because of questionable play calling and poor decisions from Adrian Martinez. Both teams are good teams, and I expect a hard fought contest here. Look for plenty of field goals instead of touchdowns to help as well. Take the under.
10-09-21	Buffalo v. Kent State OVER 64.5		38-48	Win	100	24 h 36 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The final score when these two played last year was Buffalo 70 and Kent State 41. Do I expect something like that again? No. I do think this one has a good chance to go over the total though. Kent State's offensive numbers are skewed down because of the defenses they have played. None of their FBS opponents this year rank lower than 42nd in the country in yards per play allowed. Buffalo ranks 87th so this is a big step down in class. Dustin Crum and the Kent State offense should get going here. Kent State ranks 9th in the country in tempo, and they will playing uptempo the whole way here. Buffalo's pace of play this year has really surprised me. They rank a very fast 23rd in the nation in tempo. The Bulls have been more aggressive with their play calling of late. Kent State's defense is allowing nearly 5 yards per carry, and the Golden Flashes rank 130th out of 130 teams in the country in opponent passing play success rate. This Kent State defense is terrible. This number is lower than it should be because of the opponents this offenses have played. Take the over.
10-09-21	Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 60		24-31	Win	100	20 h 41 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Washington State Cougars offense isn't working well. Jayden De Laura looks like he has regressed and the team around him hasn't helped. The offensive line is a problem and the play calling has been questionable. Washington State ranks 104th in offensive explosiveness on the season thus far. Oregon State's offense is good, but they move the ball slowly up the field. Nolan has been great as a game manager for the Beavers. This offensive scheme is very good, but they move slowly and don't try for big plays often. Oregon State ranks 99th in offensive explosiveness. The Washington State defense is coming off back to back strong showings in the last two weeks. Washington State ranks 90th out of 130 in the country in pace of play. Oregon State ranks 104th in pace of play. The weather here looks a bit shaky as well. The wind is forecast to be sustained at about 13 mph with gusts to 20 mph during the game. Take the under.
10-09-21	Wisconsin v. Illinois UNDER 43		24-0	Win	100	120 h 4 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Wisconsin Badgers don't know who will start at quarterback this week. Whether it is Graham Mertz or Chase Wolf though, the passing game is terrible. Wisconsin is completely reliant on the run. Strangely, this Wisconsin offensive line hasn't been good this year. The Badgers are averaging just 3.77 yards per carry which is 88th best in the country. Wisconsin always plays slowly and they are doing that again this year. It would be easy to think Wisconsin's defense isn't very good when you see the scores they allowed they last two weeks. That isn't true at all. The Badgers rank 1st in the country in yards per carry allowed. Overall, Wisconsin ranks 3rd in success rate allowed. This is an excellent defense. Illinois is reliant on running the football too. They don't have enough playmakers to throw it around and their offense is all about the run with Bielema as their coach. Illinois ranks 109th in the nation in yards per play. The Fighting Illini offense is a clear weakness. Illinois has 20-17, 13-9, and 24-14 games in their last three contests. The Charlotte game (24-14) says a lot since Charlotte is a very weak defense. I don't think either of these two will push the pace, and I expect a lot of running and solid defense. Take the under.
10-09-21	Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47		34-10	Win	100	48 h 57 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Georgia has allowed one offensive touchdown in five games. That is just insane. This Georgia defense is so much better than any other defense in the country right now it is just crazy. They rank 1st in yards per play allowed. They rank 1st in success rate on defense. They rank first at preventing explosive plays. Auburn had a nice win at LSU last week, but LSU's defense is a weakness. Bo Nix and his magic he pulled off in Baton Rouge isn't likely to work against this staunch Georgia defense. The Georgia offense still has some question marks. Both quarterbacks are banged up. Bennett is likely to be the starter here, and the game plan is generally more conservative with him under center. Georgia ranks only 112th in offensive explosiveness. They also rank 117th out of 130 in pace of play. Auburn is allowing just 2.56 yards per carry on the year, and Georgia runs the ball on 62% of their offensive plays. This one should be a hard fought contest. Take the under.
10-08-21	Braves v. Brewers UNDER 7		1-2	Win	102	26 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Braves and Brewers start what should be an exciting series with this contest on Friday. Charlie Morton starts for the Braves in this one. Morton had a 3.34 ERA and a 3.17 FIP this season. Morton is one of those rare pitchers who has gotten better even as he gets into his late 30's. Morton had a FIP of 1.17 or lower in his last 3 outings during the regular season. Morton's consistency has been impressive. He's allowed 3 runs or less in every outing since July 9 (the other he allowed 4 runs). Corbin Burnes has been extremely dominant all season. Burnes has a 2.43 ERA and a stunning 1.63 FIP this year. He had just 1.83 walks per nine innings and a whopping 12.61 strikeouts per nine innings. He has excellent stuff and can get a lot of swings and misses from every pitch. The home plate umpire here is Mike Estabrook. He is a clear under umpire. In my umpire database, he has consistently been one of the best strike callers and he ranks high on the charts again this year. Both pitchers should get some extra strikes off the edges in this one. The two lineups aren't elite by any means in their current state. Both of these teams have rested strong bullpens as well. Take the under.
10-03-21	Ravens v. Broncos UNDER 45		23-7	Win	100	39 h 11 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos both have a lot of key injuries. Glasnow is out on the offensive line for the Broncos. Risner is questionable as well and the Ravens certainly like to bring a lot of pressure. Lamar Jackson is questionable but is expected to play for the Ravens. Baltimore star lineman Ronnie Staley is out here and this Broncos pass rush should be able to get to Jackson here. Villaneuva is also banged up on the offensive line. Marlon Humphrey is likely to play here and he is one of the most talented corners in the game. The Denver defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Broncos have certainly played a fairly easy schedule of offenses so far, but this is definitely a good defense. Denver's offense ranks 32nd in the NFL in pace of play. The Broncos are running the ball 4th most of any team in the NFL. Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in pace of play. They are running the ball third most of any team in the NFL. Take the under here.
10-03-21	Colts v. Dolphins UNDER 42.5		27-17	Loss	-110	10 h 60 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Indianapolis Colts were thought to have an average or slightly above average defense before the season. They rank 27th in yards per play allowed so far this year. Take a look at the 3 offenses they have faced this year though: Seattle, LA Rams, and Tennessee Titans. Those are three excellent offenses who will put up big numbers on a lot of teams. Miami is without Tua here and this is a huge step down in class for the Colts defense. Miami put up 3.1 ypp against the Bills two games ago. They put up only 4.2 ypp against a subpar Raiders defense last week. The Dolphins don't have an explosive offense in their current state. The Dolphins do have a very good defense though. They will be up against a badly banged up Carson Wentz and a Colts offense that lacks top end skill position talent. Miami's secondary is one of the best in the NFL. Look for a sloppy game here. Take the under.
10-03-21	Washington Football Team v. Falcons UNDER 48		34-30	Loss	-110	10 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Atlanta Falcons offense has looked terrible this year. Matt Ryan appears to be falling off quickly at quarterback. It obviously hurts that Julio Jones is no longer here, but Ryan's arm strength isn't even close to what it was a few years ago. Atlanta is 29th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. They rank 32nd in DVOA so far this season on offense. Atlanta is a mess offensively and it starts with a terrible offensive line. The Falcons have what might be the worst offensive line in football. Washington's defensive front hasn't played nearly as well as expected so far this year, but Washington has a great chance to cause this Atlanta offensive line a lot of trouble in this game. Washington has been hearing about their underperformance on the defensive line, and I think they show up and give the Falcons a lot of trouble here. Taylor Heinicke has had issues with bad turnovers of late. I think Washington is likely to play it safe more often with him this week hoping to keep the turnovers to a minimum. A more conservative game plan and a slower pace of play is likely. Both offenses have a bunch of question marks. Take the under here.
10-02-21	Old Dominion v. UTEP OVER 48.5		21-28	Win	100	29 h 19 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UTEP offense is quite a bit better than they were a few years ago. UTEP is averaging 6.11 yards per play (48th best in the nation). The Miners rank 17th best in the nation in offensive explosiveness. Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett are very good playmakers on the outside. Cowing is averaging a stunning 23.4 yards per reception this year. Old Dominion ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Monarchs aren't a good team. The one thing they have been able to do pretty well this year is run the football. Old Dominion ranks 28th in the nation in rushing success rate. UTEP is a mediocre run defense and the Monarchs should be able to move the ball some on the ground here. It's rare to find a total below the key number of 49 where you have one team playing quickly and the other team being explosive on offense. I don't think this number should be this low. Sure this is a sloppy game between two teams who have been bad in recent years. Still, there are plenty of reasons to think there should be some points here. The weather looks good for this contest as well. Take the over.
10-02-21	Western Kentucky v. Michigan State OVER 59		31-48	Win	100	137 h 23 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are running an air raid with Bailey Zappe and his offensive coordinator from last year at Houston Baptist. How's it looking so far? The early results have been great. The Hilltoppers are third in the nation in yards per play at 8.27. They are 4th in the nation in passing plays success rate at 55.65%. The tempo has been very fast. Western Kentucky ranks 10th in the nation in tempo. Michigan State's offense is light years better than they were last year. Walker is tremendous at running back. The Spartans are averaging 5.90 yards per carry on the year. That should be a big problem for a Western Kentucky team that is allowing 4.81 yards per carry (106th out of 130 in the country). In fact, Western Kentucky rates 125th out of 130 in the nation in defensive rushing plays success rate. The Spartans passing attack has been solid with Payton Thorne as well. They have picked up the pace significantly this season. The Spartans are 32nd out of 130 teams in the country in tempo. Western Kentucky has thrown the ball on 65.2% of their offensive plays so far this year. They'll air it out and play fast here. Michigan State will gash Western Kentucky on the ground and mix in some successful passing plays as well. The pace here should be very quick all the way. Take the over.

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