Sports Picks & Predictions

All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
06-09-12	Los Angeles Angels v. Colorado Rockies OVER 9.5		11-5	Win	100	14 h 51 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination There isn't a better hitters ballpark than Coors Field in Colorado. The weather conditions in this one should make it even easier on the hitters. The temperature is expected to be about 90 degrees with wind blowing out to center field at 12 miles per hour. Colorado really piles up the runs at home. Jeff Francis hasn't pitched in the Major Leagues this year. Francis had an ERA around 5 in his last few years in Colorado. I see no reason to believe he'll be any better now. The over is 7-0 in Francis' last 7 home starts. Over is 9-2-1 in the Rockies' last 12 against a right-handed pitcher. Take the over.
06-08-12	Cleveland Indians v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9		6-2	Loss	-100	18 h 27 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO Jake Westbrook started the season pitching brilliantly, but it has been all downhill of late. He has an ERA over 10 in his last three starts. Josh Tomlin is a mediocre pitcher with an ERA slightly above 5. The Cardinals have the best lineup in the National League, and I expect them to put up several runs here. The warm weather in St. Louis should help the ball fly further. The over is 10-2 in the Indians last 12 games. The over is 20-6 in the Cardinals last 26 home games. Take the over.
06-08-12	Detroit Tigers v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 9		5-6	Win	100	16 h 27 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Mat Latos was supposed to be a great pitcher for the Reds, but he is giving up far too many homerun balls. Latos has already allowed 10 homers at Great American Ballpark in 2012. The weather is expected to be warm for this one so the ball should travel well. Rick Porcello has been inconsistent all year, and he gives up quite a few long balls as well. Both offenses are capable of putting up a big number here. The over is 6-0-1 in the Reds last 7 home games. The over is 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 interleague starts. The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 road games. Take the over.
06-08-12	Philadelphia Phillies v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9		9-6	Win	100	17 h 8 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Value The Baltimore Orioles took two of three from the Boston Red Sox at Fenway. The Phillies have lost six straight and they send Joe Blanton to the mound in this one. Blanton has allowed 25 runs in his last 4 starts. He has an ERA of about 5 in each of his last 3 seasons. The Orioles offense has been good all year, and I expect them to take advantage of Blanton's mistakes. The over is 19-7 in the Phillies last 26 road games. The over is 5-0 in Blanton's last 5 interleague starts. Take the over.
06-07-12	Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics UNDER 179		98-79	Win	100	19 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Heat/Celtics Total Domination It's game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals. Boston wasn't expected to be in this position but the Celtics have a chance to close it out here. Over the past few years, a significant trend has stood out. Elimination games tend to be very low scoring because players are tight and the offense is more deliberate. I think this game will fit right into that theory. Miami must play better defense if they hope to force a game 7. Boston isn't a team that can push the pace consistently. Take the under.
06-07-12	Toronto: H Alvarez v. Chicago (A): J Peavy OVER 8.5		3-4	Loss	-100	20 h 36 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination The Toronto Blue Jays have taken the first two games of this series. Jake Peavy has been good this year, but he is looking a little shaky of late. Peavy has been hit hard in two of his last four starts. Toronto's offense is pretty strong. Henderson Alvarez has an ERA over 6 in his last three starts. Jim Reynolds is one of the best 'over' umpires in the business. The over is 12-3 in his last 15 games behind the plate. The over is 6-0-1 in Peavy's last 7 as a home favorite. The over is 6-1-1 in Toronto's last 8 road games. Take the over.
06-07-12	Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees UNDER 8		7-3	Loss	-108	18 h 4 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO Tampa Bay's offense is very short-handed right now. Without Evan Longoria in the line up, the Rays can't hit left-handers much at all. C.C. Sabathia is one of the best left-handers in baseball. He seems to be getting stronger each start this year. Likewise, David Price has improved as the season has moved along. Price has been virtually unhittable of late. The under is 5-0 in Tampa Bay's last 5 games against a left-handed pitcher. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Take the under.
06-07-12	Chicago Cubs v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 7.5		3-4	Loss	-103	13 h 22 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special The Cubs and Brewers have taken turns humiliating each other in the first 2 games of this series. Matt Garza has been much worse over the last few starts. Randy Wolf is becoming more hittable every year. He simply doesn't have the stuff to get good hitters out anymore. Paul Schrieber has the smallest strike zone of any umpire in Major League Baseball. The over is 7-1 in Schrieber's last 8 games behind home plate. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The over is 4-0 in the Brewer's lats 4 against a right-handed pitcher. Take the over.
06-06-12	Texas: C Lewis v. Oakland: B Colon OVER 7.5		0-2	Loss	-110	20 h 18 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO Colby Lewis has struggled against the Athletics in his career. Jemile Weeks is hitting better than .500 off Lewis, and he sets the table for this Oakland offense. Bartolo Colon started the season well, but he has been very shaky of late. Scott Barry is a solid over umpire who has a tight strike zone. The over is 7-1 in Lewis' last 8 starts against the Athletics. The over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings at Oakland. This number is set very low, especially when you consider the Rangers have the best offense in baseball. Take the over.
06-06-12	Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5		1-6	Loss	-104	20 h 55 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Tim McClelland is my favorite 'over' umpire. He pinches the strike zone in a big way. Both of these pitches really try to work the corners, and I don't think they'll like his strike zone. Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open. The Diamondbacks put up 10 runs last night. Both teams hit left-handers very well. Look for the ball to be flying out of the park in this one. The over is 9-1 in the Rockies last 10 road games. The over is 5-0 in Miley's last 5 home starts against a team with a losing record. Take the over.
06-04-12	Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5		4-0	Loss	-120	20 h 43 m	Show
3 Star MLB Play of the Day The Colorado Rockies have been scoring runs in bunches of late. They have scored 7 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games. Arizona's Chase Field is one of the very best hitters ballparks in baseball when the roof is open. The heat and low humidity really make the ball fly extremely well. Chase Field's roof is scheduled to be open here. Joe Saunders struggles in a big way when the roof is open, and he gives up lots of long balls. In his last 3 starts with the roof open he has allowed 4,6, and 7 runs. The Diamondbacks hit lefties well and Christian Friedrich has struggled of late after starting out well this season. The over is 7-0 in the Rockies last 7 road games. The over is 5-1 in Saunders' last 6 starts. Take the over.
06-04-12	Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 202		108-103	Loss	-105	7 h 30 m	Show
3 Star Thunder/Spurs Total Domination It's a pivotal Game Five tonight in San Antonio. The Western Conference finals are definitely living up to expectations. Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins combined to miss only two shots from the floor last game and score 41 points (they average 14 points combined per game). The Spurs are unlikely to allow the Thunder to shoot 56.4% again like they did in Game Four. Also, San Antonio shot 50% and made 11 three-point shots in their 109-103 loss last time out. As the series grows more intense and the stakes get even higher, I suspect the defense will improve. The under is 7-2 in the Spurs last 9 Conference Finals games. Take the under.
06-03-12	Minnesota: S Diamond v. Cleveland: J Mastersn UNDER 9		6-3	Push	0	14 h 41 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO Justin Masterson started the season slowly, but he has been improving gradually the last few times out. Minnesota's offense isn't very good, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some guys sit this one out on a Sunday afternoon game. The Indians struggle badly against lefties. Carlos Santana, Travis Hafner, and Johnny Damon are all out of the Cleveland lineup. The wind is expected to be howling in at 15 to 20 mph. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 games following a win. I like the value on the under.
06-03-12	Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5		6-5	Loss	-105	13 h 56 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special The Milwaukee Brewers will be without Ryan Braun in this one and Aramis Ramirez is liable to miss the game as well. Rickie Weeks isn't hitting at all and the Brewers offense isn't lethal at all without Braun in the middle. James McDonald hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a game all season. The Pirates average just 2.89 runs per game against righties. Michael Fiers is making just his second start in this one, but I think he can fare well against this Pirates lineup. Phil Cuzzi is a solid under umpire. The under is 5-0-1 in McDonald's last 6 starts against the NL Central. The under is 5-0-2 in his last 7 starts against teams with a losing record. Take the under.
06-02-12	Los Angeles Dodgers v. Colorado Rockies OVER 10.5		6-2	Loss	-100	15 h 48 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination The Colorado Rockies are absolutely crushing the baseball right now. Colorado has scored 13, 11, and 13 runs in their last three games. In fact, the Rockies have scored 6 or more runs in 8 of their last 10 games. Aaron Harang is a fly ball pitcher and that is bad news for him at Coors. He has a 6.5 ERA in his career at Coors Field. Juan Nicasio has a 7.04 ERA at home this year. The Dodgers continue to outperform expectations offensively. The over is 6-0-1 in the Rockies last 7 as a home favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 10 as an underdog. The over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between these two at Colorado. The over is 20-5-2 in the Rockies last 27 Saturday games. A 40-7 angle backs this play. Take the over.
06-02-12	Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8		2-1	Win	100	14 h 45 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Value The Orioles offense took a major hit when Nick Markakis went down with an injury. Without Markakis, Adam Jones doesn't have much support in the middle of the order. Matt Wieters is slumping terribly right now. Jeremy Hellickson has been amazing, especially at home. Hellickson is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He has an ERA below 2 at home in his career. Brian Matusz has pretty good stuff, and the Rays offense is averaging less than 3 runs per game over the last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 against a righty. The under is 4-0 in Matusz's last 4 games. The under is 18-3-2 in Hellickson's last 21 home starts. The under is 5-0-2 in Hellickson's last 7 overall. The under is 20-5-2 in the last 27 meetings in Tampa Bay between these two teams. A huge 51-8 angle backs this play. Take the under.
06-01-12	Texas Rangers v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8.5		2-4	Loss	-107	21 h 23 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination The Texas Rangers have the best offense in all of baseball. Texas has scored 8 runs or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The Rangers average 6 runs per game against right-handed pitching. Jerome Williams has had a nice year, but he doesn't have dominating stuff. Colby Lewis strikes out a lot of people, but he also gives up a lot of long balls. Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo, and Albert Pujols are really hitting the ball well now for the Angels. The Angels have scored 5 runs or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The over is 6-1 in Texas' last 7 games. The over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
05-31-12	Houston Astros v. Colorado Rockies OVER 9.5		5-11	Win	100	18 h 27 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination 14 of the last 18 games played at Coors Field have gone over this posted total. Bud Norris has had a nice season, but he isn't nearly as good on the road. Norris has a 5.40 ERA on the road, and he wasn't sharp at all in Los Angeles last time out. Jeremy Guthrie has a miserable 9.92 ERA in his home starts this year. Guthrie is clearly struggling with the conditions at Coors Field. There are some amazing trends on this game. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. The over is 6-0 in Norris' last 6 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 7-0-1 in the Rockies last 8 games when allowing 5 or more runs in the previous game. Also, the over is 4-0-1 in the Rockies last 5 as a home favorite. A 24-0 angle backs this one. Take the over.
05-30-12	Baltimore: J Hammel v. Toronto: B Morrow OVER 8.5		1-4	Loss	-100	17 h 43 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Jason Hammel has pitched pretty well this year, but I'm not at all convinced that he is a good pitcher. Hammel has been wildly inconsistent in the past, and I think he is due to get hit around. The Blue Jays offense is one of the best in baseball. Baltimore's offense is very formidable as well. Brandon Morrow has pitched much worse at home over the last couple years. Morrow only lasted 2/3 of an inning in his last start. This total is set too low. The over is 4-0 in Hammel's last 4 starts. The over is 6-1-1 in the Blue Jays last 8 games. Take the over.
05-30-12	Kansas City: B Chen v. Cleveland: J Gomez UNDER 8.5		6-3	Loss	-108	11 h 38 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special The Cleveland Indians have struggled all year against left-handed pitching. Cleveland is hitting just .209 against lefties in 2012. Right now the Indians are without Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis Hafner, and Carlos Santana. Those are their #3, #4, and #5 hitters. Kansas City's offense has been disappointing this year. Jeanmar Gomez isn't a great pitcher, but he is underrated and he has pitched well at home. The under is 14-2 in Dan Bellino's (home plate umpire) last 16 games overall. Take the under.
05-29-12	Philadelphia Phillies v. New York Mets OVER 8.5		3-6	Win	100	17 h 57 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination The Philadelphia Phillies offense hasn't been that great this year, but the public perception that the Phillies have a terrible offense isn't true. The Phillies average 4.16 runs per game, and they average 4.70 runs per game against righties, which is in the top 10 in the majors. The Mets average 4.24 runs per game. Joe Blanton has been an 'over' machine on the road over the past couple years. Jeremy Hefner was lit up by the Padres in his last start, and the Padres are the worst offense in the NL. Some huge winning angles back this one. The over is 15-3 in the Phillies last 18 road games. The over is 7-0 in the Mets last 7 against the NL East. The over is 7-0 in the Phillies last 7 as a road favorite. It is 7-0 in the Phillies last 7 road games vs. a right-handed pitcher. The over is 20-4-2 in the last 26 meetings between these teams. A combined 56-7 winning angle backs this one. Take the over.
05-28-12	Chicago White Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5		2-1	Win	100	13 h 30 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special Chris Sale and Matt Moore are both two very talented left-handed pitchers. The White Sox have struggled all year against lefties. Tampa Bay's offense simply isn't very good without Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings. Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist are in horrible slumps. The under is an amazing 82-38-8 in the Rays last 128 home games. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Look for both starters to have the upper hand in this one. Take the under.
05-27-12	San Diego Padres v. New York Mets OVER 7		0-2	Loss	-115	11 h 39 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Tim Tschida is one of the best 'over' umpires in the business. Tschida has a tiny strike zone, and I expect that to hurt both of these pitchers in a big way Sunday. Edinson Volquez has struggled with walks in his entire career, and this year has been no different. Tschida won't give him the borderline pitches. R.A. Dickey is a knuckle baller who would be hurt far more than the average pitcher by a small strike zone. Dickey has an ERA above 5 during day games in his career. The over is 3-0-1 in the Padres last 4. The over is 5-0-1 in the Mets last 6 home games. The over is 4-0 in Tschida's last 4 Sunday games behind the plate. Take the over.
05-26-12	Philadelphia Phillies v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9		4-0	Loss	-100	18 h 6 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination The heat is here across the country and that generally means higher scoring games. The expected game time temperature here is 95 degrees, and the wind is forecasted to be blowing out at 10 mph. Kyle Kendrick is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the majors, and he gives up a lot of long balls. St. Louis has scored more runs than any other NL team. The Cardinals are very capable of getting the 9 runs by themselves here. Jaime Garcia has been good at home, but he hasn't been dominant this year. Sam Holbrook is the best over umpire in the business. The over is 6-0 in Kendrick's last 6 starts as a road underdog. The over is 18-4 in the Cardinals last 22 as a favorite. The over is 13-3 in the Phillies last 16 road games. Take the over.
05-26-12	Toronto: H Alvarez v. Texas: C Lewis OVER 9.5		7-8	Win	100	13 h 12 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special The Texas Rangers have the best offense in all of baseball. Alvarez is a decent young pitcher for Toronto, but this is a very tough spot for him. In an afternoon game in Arlington, the ball should fly very well on this hot day. Colby Lewis struggles at home, and the Blue Jays have an offense capable of taking advantage. Lewis has an ERA of over 6 with home plate umpire Marty Foster in his career. The over is 7-0 in the Rangers last 7 against the AL East. The over is 4-0-1 in the Blue Jays' last 5. Take the over.
05-26-12	Detroit Tigers v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8.5		6-3	Win	100	14 h 36 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO Max Scherzer has been awful this season. He also has a career ERA 6.45 in 6 starts against the Minnesota Twins. Carl Pavano has a 4.91 ERA on the season. The Twins have been hitting the ball much better as of late. Justin Morneau is healthy and hitting the ball well. The Tigers' offense hasn't been what it should be yet, but I expect them to put up several runs against Pavano. With two hot offenses and two poor pitchers, I think it is very possible that we see at least ten runs scored here. Take the over.
05-25-12	LA Anaheim: E Santana v. Seattle: B Beavan UNDER 7.5		6-4	Loss	-126	22 h 48 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination The Los Angeles Angels have been the most disappointing team in the majors. The offense is averaging just 3.59 runs per game. Safeco is certainly a pitchers park. Ervin Santana has been burning money this year, but it isn't because he has been bad. In fact, he has been great in his last five starts. Five straight quality starts from Santana. He has a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts. The Seattle lineup is one of the worst in baseball. The under is 8-0-1 in Santana's last 9 starts as a road favorite. The under is 4-0-1 in Santana's last 5 starts against the Mariners. Take the under.
05-25-12	Kansas City: B Chen v. Baltimore: J Hammel OVER 8.5		2-8	Win	100	18 h 43 m	Show
3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error Total Bruce Chen and Jason Hammel have both pitched a little better than most expected, but I still don't consider them high quality pitchers. Both Kansas City and Baltimore are pretty good hitting teams, and I was surprised to see a total this low. The Orioles are averaging 5.04 runs per game against lefties. The Royals average 4.22 runs per game this season. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph. Everything here adds up to value on the over. Take the over.
05-24-12	Philadelphia Phillies v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 7.5		10-9	Win	100	18 h 54 m	Show
3 Star MLB Play of the Day The St. Louis Cardinals have scored more runs than any other team in the National League. They also have the second best team batting average in the majors. Rafael Furcal and Carlos Beltran are having massive bounce back years for the Cardinals. The Phillies offense isn't good, but they are improving slowly. Many of the current Phillies players have great numbers against Jake Westbrook in their career. Joe Blanton is very inconsistent, and I don't think the line should be this low with two mediocre pitchers. The over is 6-0 in Westbrook's last 6 home starts. The over is 5-0 in the Phillies last 5 road games. Take the over.
05-23-12	Los Angeles: T Lilly v. Arizona: J Saunders OVER 9		4-11	Win	100	19 h 23 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Chase Field is a completely different park when the roof is open, especially when it is very hot. The expected temperature at gametime is 100 degrees and the roof is scheduled to be open. The ball travels very well with the heat and low humidity. Ted Lilly gives up too many fly balls for this to be a good situation for him. Joe Saunders has pitched twice with the roof open in the past two weeks and has given up 6 and 7 earned runs respectively. The over is 4-0 in Saunders last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in Lilly's last 4 starts. The over is 5-1 in Saunders last 6 starts against the Dodgers. Take the over.
05-22-12	Colorado Rockies v. Miami Marlins OVER 7.5		6-7	Win	100	17 h 10 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Ricky Nolasco is a strange pitcher in that he generally pitches better on the road than he does at home. He has a 6.60 ERA at home this year. The Rockies offense is capable of doing damage with Tulo and CarGo in the middle of the order. The Marlins offense has struggled all year, but I think they are starting to turn the corner. Miami should be able to score runs against Juan Nicasio, who has a better ERA than he probably should. Nicasio has faced tons of weak hitting teams this season. The over is 6-0 in Nolasco's last 6 home starts. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
05-20-12	San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 190.5	Top	102-99	Loss	-110	20 h 49 m	Show
5 Star NBA Top Play Total The San Antonio Spurs rallied from a 22 point first quarter deficit to win and go up 3-0 yesterday. The Clippers showed that they are intent on slowing the pace of the game down at home, and I think they'll try to do that again in this one. Both teams shot 46% from the floor which is very solid for playoff time, but the game still easily went under at 182 points. Two games ago both teams shot the lights out and the total still only hit 193. I think the pace says we'll have a lower scoring game than the oddsmakers expect here. The under is 18-3-1 in the last 22 meetings at Staples center. The under is 6-1-1 in the Spurs last 8. The under is 5-1 in the Clippers last 6. In all, a 29-5 winning angle supports the under. Take the under big here!
05-20-12	Los Angeles Angels v. San Diego Padres UNDER 6.5		2-3	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Doug Eddings has been the best 'under' umpire in baseball for the last few years. Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in baseball. Ervin Santana and Anthony Bass have both improved as the season has gone along, and I expect both of them to use PetCo's dimensions as well as Eddings' strike zone to their advantage. The under is a stunning 21-4-4 in Santana's last 29 games overall. The under is 7-0-1 in his last 8 as a road favorite. The under is 16-4-1 in Eddings' last 21 interleague games behind the dish. Look for a very low scoring game. Take the under.
05-20-12	Baltimore Orioles v. Washington Nationals UNDER 6.5		3-9	Loss	-115	12 h 33 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO Stephen Strasburg struggled through his last start, and I fully expect him to bounce back in a big way here. Strasburg is an extremely talented pitcher who hasn't had a bad outing twice in a row before. Chen is a very good pitcher for the Orioles as well, and the Nationals struggle badly against lefties. Chen shut down the Rangers and the Yankees in his last two starts, so I expect him to fare well against a Nationals team that averages less than 3 runs per game against lefties. Both pitchers should be locked in on Sunday. Take the under.
05-19-12	Pittsburgh Pirates v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8		4-3	Win	100	13 h 43 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the worst offenses in the majors. Pittsburgh averages 2.85 runs per game which is worst in the majors. Drew Smyly has been very good in his rookie year for the Tigers. A.J. Burnett has had four great starts and one awful start. The Tigers offense has been disappointing this year and they'll be without Austin Jackson here. Bill Miller is the umpire here and he is one of my favorite 'under' umpires. The under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings at Detroit. The under is 11-1-1 in the Pirates last 13 Saturday games. The under is 5-0 in Pittsburgh's last 5 against the AL Central. Take the under.
05-18-12	Arizona Diamondbacks v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5		6-4	Win	100	20 h 30 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Joe Saunders is a very streaky pitcher. He looked great at the beginning of the year, but he has been shelled in his last two outings. He is a fly ball pitcher, and the wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 mph in this game. Luis Mendoza doesn't have great stuff, and I don't expect him to be able to shut down Arizona. Both of these guys put too many people on base, and I expect that to bite them in this game. The over is 10-1 in the Royals last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 8-3-2 in the last 13 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
05-17-12	Baltimore Orioles v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9		5-3	Loss	-100	11 h 30 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination The Orioles have shocked the baseball world so far this year, and they have done it with their very impressive lineup. The Royals are much better than they started the season, and they have lots of young talent in their lineup. Brian Matusz and Luke Hochevar have both been extremely inconsistent on the mound this year. Both have an ERA of about 6 in day games in their career. The total is set pretty high, but that shouldn't be a problem. The over is 17-5-5 in Hochevar's last 27 starts with a total of 9-10.5. The over is 5-1 in the Orioles last 6 games with a total of 9-10.5. Take the over.
05-16-12	Pittsburgh: E Bedard v. Washington: G Gonzalez UNDER 6.5		4-7	Loss	-120	17 h 50 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Two of the worst offenses in the National League get together in this one. Washington is without Werth and Morse. The Pirates offense has scored more than 5 runs just three times in 35 games. Gio Gonzalez has been dominant this year. Gonzalez has a 1.94 ERA. Erik Bedard hasn't gotten any run support, but he has a terrific 2.57 ERA as well. The Nationals average a miserable 2.53 runs per game against lefties. The Pirates average just 3.14 runs per game against lefties. The under is 22-7-3 in the Pirates last 32 games. The under is 6-1 in Bedard's last 7 starts. Take the under.
05-15-12	Kansas City: V Mazzaro v. Texas: C Lewis OVER 10	Top	7-4	Win	100	19 h 5 m	Show
5 Star MLB Top Play Total The Kansas City Royals are sending Vin Mazzaro to the hill in this one. Mazzaro had an ERA over 8 last year! He hasn't pitched yet this year, and the team is really throwing him to the wolves by pitching him against the Rangers in Arlington. Colby Lewis struggles at home, and the Royals have a solid offense. Paul Schrieber is the umpire here, and he is a terrific over umpire. He has the lowest called percentage of strikes of any umpire in baseball this year by a large margin. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. The over is 6-1 in Lewis' last 7 Tuesday Starts. The over is 6-1 in the Rangers last 7 games. Take the over big!
05-15-12	Cincinnati Reds v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7		2-6	Loss	-110	18 h 19 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Tim Hudson looked much better in his last start, and I think he is a guy who will round into form nicely this year. Johnny Cueto has arguably been the most consistently very good pitcher in the majors so far this year. Cueto has a dazzling 1.12 ERA. The under is 5-0 in Hudson's last 5 home games. The under is 5-0-1 in Cueto's last 6 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0-1 in Cueto's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. All signs point to this being a very low scoring game. Take the under.
05-15-12	Tampa Bay: D Price v. Toronto: H Alvarez UNDER 7.5		4-3	Win	100	18 h 7 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been better the last two days, but without Longoria they typically struggle to score. David Price has been terrific in his history against the Blue Jays. He has handled almost everyone in the lineup expect Jose Bautista. Bill Miller is one of my favorite 'under' umpires, and he'll be behind the dish in this one. Henderson Alvarez has a 0.82 ERA in his last three starts. Look for both pitchers to take advantage of a big strike zone. Take the under.
05-15-12	Detroit Tigers v. Chicago White Sox OVER 7.5		10-8	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special A game with these two pitchers going with a total of 7.5 got my attention pretty quickly. The Tigers offense has been heating up a bit of late, and I think Peavy is due for some regression. Max Scherzer has a WHIP of 1.62 and an ERA of 5.73 on the season. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 to 20 mph, so the ball should really be traveling (especially in the heat of the day in this afternoon game). I really like the value on the over in this matchup.
05-14-12	Los Angeles Lakers v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 191		90-119	Win	100	19 h 47 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination The Oklahoma City Thunder have been resting for a quite a while for this game, while the Lakers just closed out Denver late Saturday night. The Lakers are bound to be a little tired, and weary legs often leads to poor defense. Oklahoma City is going to want to get out and run when they can. The Lakers should be able to score quite a bit on the inside with Bynum and Gasol. The playoffs do have lower scoring games, but I think the oddsmakers brought this total down too far. Take the over.
05-14-12	Cincinnati Reds v. Atlanta Braves OVER 8.5		3-1	Loss	-105	18 h 17 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Joey Votto went off for 3 HR's and 6 RBI's to rally the Reds to a big 9-6 walkoff win yesterday against Washington. The Reds offense should finish as one of the best in the National League, and this might be the thing to get them going. Atlanta has the best offense in the National League right now. The Braves average 5.40 runs per game. Homer Bailey hasn't pitched well this year, and he has a 5.40 ERA on the road. The Braves should put up 5 or 6 runs here. Randall Delgado doesn't have dominating stuff, and I think the Reds offense could do some damage. The over is 21-9 in Bailey's last 30 starts. Take the over.
05-13-12	LA Anaheim: J Weaver v. Texas: N Feliz UNDER 8.5		6-13	Loss	-100	18 h 8 m	Show
3 Star Sunday Night Baseball Total Domination Jeff Weaver has been the best pitcher in baseball so far this year. Texas has been the best offense in baseball. Neftali Feliz has been extremely good in his time as a starter this year, and the Angels offense is struggling in a big way. Dan Bellino is a solid under umpire. The under is 11-1 in his last 12 games behind the dish. Both of these pitchers are guys who will take advantage of his wide strike zone. The under is 6-0 in Texas' last 6 Sunday games. The under is 4-1 in Weaver's last 5 starts against Texas. Take the under.
05-12-12	San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8		5-2	Loss	-100	17 h 32 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Value Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open, especially when it is very hot. The expected temperature at game time is 98 degrees here. The heat with low humidity really makes the ball fly. Matt Cain has struggled here in the past. Trevor Cahill didn't fare well in two games at home earlier this year when the roof was open. Both offenses have struggled a bit of late, but a total set at 8 with the roof open here is tough to pass up. I expect several home run balls in this one. Look for this to go over the posted total.
05-12-12	Atlanta Braves v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 7.5		7-2	Win	107	16 h 37 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination These are the top two offenses in the National League right now. Atlanta has scored at least 9 runs in 4 of their last 9 games. The Braves offense is really clicking with Freddie Freeman having a breakout season and Michael Bourn getting on base with consistency. The Cardinals have a great lineup as well, and they actually lead the National League in runs. Carlos Beltran looks like the Beltran of old. Adam Wainwright hasn't been just right so far this year. Brandon Beachy has been awesome, but I think he'll struggle some against this great Cardinals lineup. The over is 8-0 in the Cards last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The over is 3-0-1 in Wainwright's last 4 starts against Atlanta. The over is 4-0 in Beachy's last 4 against the NL Central. Take the over.
05-11-12	Detroit: R Porcello v. Oakland: T Milone OVER 7		4-11	Win	100	20 h 29 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination It was just a matter of time before the Detroit lineup had a huge game, and they did it last night against Bartolo Colon. The Tigers scored 10 runs and Miguel Cabrera had a huge game. Milone has pitched well twice at home this year, but I don't think he has the stuff to shut down Detroit. Rick Porcello is a very inconsistent pitcher, and he has fared poorly on the West Coast. The over is 17-4-1 in Porcello's last 22 against the AL West. The over is 4-1 in Porcello's last 5 against Oakland. This one is set too low. Take the over.
05-10-12	Chicago Bulls v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 168.5		78-79	Loss	-110	16 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Bulls/76ers Total Domination I must admit I didn't expect to play an 'over' in this series. These two teams are both very good defensively, and the offenses have struggled to get on track. The reason for this play is solely value. An NBA game with a total below 170 points is almost unheard of. Looking at the shooting percentages from the last couple games, it's hard to imagine both teams shooting 35% or less again in this one. Doug Collins said after Game Five that the 76ers had a better chance of winning if they could get out in transition some. Look for them to get the pace a little more to their liking at home. This total is set too low. Take the over.
05-09-12	Washington: R Detwiler v. Pittsburgh: E Bedard UNDER 7		2-4	Win	100	17 h 13 m	Show
3 Star MLB Top Total The Washington Nationals are terrible offensively right now. They are winning because they have the best team ERA in the majors. The Pittsburgh Pirates offense is one of the worst in baseball. Washington is without Werth and Morse right now. Erik Bedard has a 2.65 ERA this year, and Ross Detwiler has a sparkling 1.65 ERA. Detwiler is a major breakout candidate this year. The under is 12-3-1 in the Pirates last 16 home games. The under is 12-3-1 in Detwiler's last 16 road starts. The under is 5-0-1 in Detwiler's last 6 as a road underdog. Take the under here.
05-09-12	Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7		2-1	Win	100	10 h 14 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special The Milwaukee Brewers haven't been hitting the ball well at all lately. They did take advantage of Homer Bailey's wildness last night, but Johnny Cueto is a much better pitcher. Zack Greinke is awesome at home, and with this being a get away day I expect some key Reds to be sitting out. Cueto has an amazing 0.81 ERA in his last three starts, while Grienke's is a respectable 3.12. Look for both pitchers to have a lot of success and go deep into the game here. I like the value on the under.
05-08-12	St.Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9		6-1	Loss	-110	20 h 19 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Chase Field is a whole different ballpark when the roof is open. The roof is expected to be open for this game. The low humidity and high temperatures make the ball carry extremely well here. Last night's game saw 6 home run balls leave the yard. The Cardinals hit five of those homers. Ian Kennedy has started twice in his career against the Cardinals and he hasn't fared well in either start. He has a 12.00 ERA against the Cards. Jake Westbrook is a streaky pitcher, and he was shaky in his last start. The over is 7-0 in the Cardinals last 7 games. The over is 4-0 in Kennedy's last 4 home starts. The over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings at Arizona. The over is 6-0-1 in Tim Welke (umpire) last 7 games with Arizona. In all, a 21-0 angle backs this one. Take the over.
05-08-12	Boston Red Sox v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5		4-6	Win	100	19 h 50 m	Show
3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error Total The Boston Red Sox have been pounding left-handed pitching this year. Boston piled up 11 runs last night. Danny Duffy has started twice against Boston, and he has struggled badly in both outings. Daniel Bard still hasn't put it all together in the starting rotation just yet. The total here is set awfully low for two solid offenses and two pitchers who have a lot to prove. The over is 12-2 in the Red Sox last 14 against a lefty. The over is 17-6 in Chris Guccione (umpire) last 23 games behind home plate. Look for this one to go over.
05-08-12	Orlando Magic v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 180		87-105	Loss	-110	5 h 49 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination The Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers have played four games. Only one game has gone over the posted total, and that was because it went into overtime. The other games have finished at 158, 171, and 171 points. The fourth game was 178 before going into overtime. An elimination game tends to bring out the best in both defenses as well as a much slower pace. This is an entirely different game in the playoffs, and in an elimination situation the change is even greater. I think this is an ugly game that stays below the posted total. Take the under.
05-07-12	Boston Red Sox v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9		11-5	Win	100	19 h 8 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination The Boston Red Sox played a 17 inning game and lost to the Orioles yesterday. The Red Sox pen was spent after the game. Felix Doubront may have to go ahead and labor through more innings in this one, and I think that will give the Royals more chances to score. Boston averages 6.54 runs against left-handed pitchers so far this year. Both of these pitchers allow a ton of base runners, and in the end that usually comes back to bite you. The over is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 overall in Game One of a series. The over is 8-0 in the Royals last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record. This 12-0 winning angle backs the over, and I like both offenses to put up several here. Take the over.
05-07-12	Texas: M Harrison v. Baltimore: B Matusz OVER 9.5		14-3	Win	101	18 h 58 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO The Baltimore Orioles swept away the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park this past weekend. Baltimore has been excellent against left-handed pitching this year. The over is 8-2 in their last 10 games against a lefty. Texas has a major league leading .296 batting average as a team against left-handed pitchers. With plenty of powerful right-handed hitters in the lineup, the Rangers should be able to score several against Matusz. Harrison has had two terrible games in a row, and this Orioles offense is good. Take the over.
05-06-12	New York Yankees v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5		10-4	Win	100	13 h 44 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Value Phil Hughes and Luke Hochevar both have an ERA over 7 so far this year. Both of these guys make far too many mistakes and are capable of giving up a huge inning. The Yankees offense hasn't been very good of late, but they are definitely still very dangerous. Kansas City is a much better offensive team than they have shown so far this year. Past history is giving us a solid value here. Both teams are hitting poorly right now, but this pitching matchup should equal plenty of runs. Take the over.
05-06-12	St Louis: Wainwright v. Houston: J Happ OVER 8		8-1	Win	100	12 h 13 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination The Astros offense has been surprisingly good this year. Houston is averaging 4.85 runs per game this season. They have been particularly good at home. Adam Wainwright is a very good pitcher, but he still isn't completely healthy right now. He hasn't been dominant in any game this year, and his ERA is over 6. JA Happ is a great pitcher for overs because he allows so many base runners. The Cardinals have one of the best offenses in the National League. The over is 5-0 in the Cardinals last 5 games. The over is 24-7 in the Astros last 31 games. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings overall. A 35-7 winning angle backs this play. Take the over.
05-05-12	OAK ATHLETICS v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7		4-3	Push	0	17 h 22 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Bartolo Colon has been terrific this year. Colon has been commanding his pitches better than he has in years. Colon has a 2.5 ERA on the year. Jeremy Hellickson also has a 2.5 ERA this year. The Rays are without Evan Longoria right now, and the Athletics offense is very weak. Paul Nauert is a bit of an under umpire, which should help some as well. The under is 17-3 in Hellickson's last 20 home starts. The under is 4-0 in Colon's last 4 starts. The under is 5-0 in Hellickson's last 5 starts against the AL West. A 26-3 winning angle backs the under here. Take the under.
05-05-12	Cincinnati: M Leake v. Pittsburgh: J Mcdonald UNDER 8		2-3	Win	100	17 h 48 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO The Cincinnati Reds offense has been a major disappointment this year. The Pirates have been dreadful offensively. Andrew McCutcheon is ill and is questionable for this game. He is clearly the Pirates best hitter. Mike Leake has been bad this year, but he has a nice history against the Pirates. James McDonald has been very good this season, and he has handled the Reds well in the past. Ron Kulpa is the umpire in this one and he is a very solid under umpire thanks to his large strike zone. Take the under.
05-05-12	Chicago (A): G Floyd v. Detroit: M Scherzer OVER 8.5		3-2	Loss	-100	14 h 48 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special Max Scherzer has struggled in a big way this season. He sports a WHIP that is above 2. Clearly, he is allowing far too many base runners. He has managed to limit the damage at times, but allowing so many runners will come back to bite him in the long run. Gavin Floyd has been pretty good this year, but he hasn't been good against the Tigers in the past. The over is 5-1 in his last 6 road starts in Detroit. The over is 5-1 in Scherzer's last 6 home starts. Take the over in this one.
05-03-12	Philadelphia: J Blanton v. Atlanta: R Delgado OVER 8		4-0	Loss	-100	10 h 3 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special It was tough to see Roy Halladay blow a 6-0 lead when I had the Phillies ML yesterday, but this Braves offense is really showing how good it is right now. There isn't a better offense in the National League than the Braves at this point. Philadelphia is better offensively than they showed early in the year as well. Randall Delgado has issued 12 walks in just three starts this year. Joe Blanton has been torched by several guys on the Braves roster. Both of these pitchers have a high WHIP. The over is 18-8-1 in Blanton's last 27 road starts. The over is 6-1 in the Phillies last 7 road games. Both bullpens were used heavily last night. Take the over.
05-02-12	Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 185		98-105	Loss	-110	9 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Clippers/Grizzlies Total Domination Memphis had an epic collapse in Game One of this series, but I think that actually makes the 'under' look even better here. The Grizzlies are at their best when using up the shot clock and looking inside. Memphis made 11 three-pointers in Game One, but then started settling for outside jumpers. Look for Memphis to go back to their bread and butter here. The Clippers shot 50% on Sunday, which I doubt they'll duplicate in this game. The shooting percentages should come down, and the pace should slow down. Take the under.
05-02-12	Seattle Mariners v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 7		4-5	Win	100	17 h 52 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination The Seattle Mariners don't have a good offense, but they have surprisingly great numbers against James Shields. As a team, they are hitting .356 off Shields. Several Seattle players have torched Shields in the past. Blake Beavan is a pretty good pitcher for Seattle, but Tampa Bay should be able to put up a few runs against him. This number is set extremely low, which I believe puts the value squarely on the side of the over. The over is 16-5-2 in Jim Wolf's last 21 games behind the plate as HP umpire. Take the over.
05-01-12	Minnesota: F Liriano v. LA Anaheim: J Williams OVER 8.5		0-4	Loss	-100	23 h 2 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Francisco Liriano simply isn't fooling anyone right now. Liriano was shelled in his first appearance this year against the Angels. Liriano's ERA in 2012 now sits at 11.02. Jerome Williams has a 5.51 ERA, and I don't see him as a shut down pitcher at all. A total this low with two pitchers who are capable of getting shelled is too much value for me to pass up. The over is 3-0-1 in Liriano's last 4 against the Angels. Expect both offenses to get going here. Take the over.
04-29-12	Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 184		99-98	Loss	-110	20 h 16 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Playoff basketball tends to lend to a much slower pace and better defense. I think we'll see that here. Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow pace and play strong defense. The under is 14-5 in the Grizzlies last 19 games. Don't expect either team to get too comfortable offensively in this game. I projected this total at 180 points, so I see plenty of value in this game. Look for this one to stay under the posted total.
04-29-12	Chicago Cubs v. Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 7.5		5-1	Win	100	13 h 48 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Value Bill Miller is one of my favorite 'under' umpires. The under is 22-5 in Miller's last 27 Sunday games behind the dish. Kyle Kendrick is much better at home. The under is 9-2-2 in his last 13 home starts. Matt Garza is the Cubs pitcher, and he has been consistently very good this year. The wind will be blowing in at almost 15 mph which should help quite a bit here. Between the two subpar offenses, a favorable umpire, and good weather conditions I like the under in this one.
04-29-12	OAK ATHLETICS v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8		2-5	Win	100	13 h 47 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO The Oakland Athletics have one of the worst offenses in the American League. Tommy Hunter has an ERA under 1 at home this year. Hunter should be able to slow down the A's offense here. Bartolo Colon has been terrific so far this year. The under is 21-8-1 in the A's last 30 games. The under is 4-1 in Colon's last 5 starts. The under is 5-1 in the Orioles last 6 games. Look for both pitchers to fare well in this one. I think this is a 3-2 type of game. I like the value on the under.
04-29-12	Pittsburgh Pirates v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7.5		3-4	Win	100	12 h 10 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination This is a very nice setup for the under. Doug Eddings is the single biggest under umpire in the majors. Tim Hudson has pitched six games with Eddings behind the plate, and he has an ERA of 1.26 in those games. Kevin Correia has an ERA of 2.75 at Atlanta in his career. The under is 6-0-1 in Pittsburgh's last 7 games following a win. The under is 4-0 in Hudson's last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in Correia's last 4 road games. The under is 6-0 in Eddings last 6 games behind the plate with Pittsburgh. In all, we have a 20-0 angle backing this. Take the under.
04-28-12	Arizona Diamondbacks v. MIA MARLINS UNDER 7.5		2-3	Win	100	17 h 24 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO Ian Kennedy nearly won the NL Cy Young award last year. He hasn't been stellar this year, but I think he'll improve. Kennedy will be a in pitcher's ballpark in Miami on Saturday. The Marlins offense has really struggled of late. Anibal Sanchez is a solid pitcher for the Marlins as well, and the DBacks lineup isn't nearly as good without Chris Young and Stephen Drew. This seems like a good opportunity for a 3-2 type game. Look for this one to fall under the posted total. Take the under.
04-28-12	Detroit: D Smyly v. New York (A): F Garcia OVER 10.5		7-5	Win	100	16 h 11 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination This is a very high total, but both of these teams are capable of scoring a ton of runs. Five of the Yankees last nine games have had at least 11 runs scored. Four of the Tigers last eight games have had at least 11 runs scored. Smyly is a decent prospect, but the Yankees should get to him pretty nicely. Garcia looks bad this year, and the Tigers offense is liable to knock him out very early. The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4. The over is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 home games. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two in New York. Take the over.
04-26-12	San Antonio Spurs v. Golden State Warriors OVER 207		107-101	Win	100	8 h 30 m	Show
3 Star NBA on TNT Total The Spurs and the Warriors will play in the final game of the NBA regular season on TNT Thursday night. San Antonio will be resting a ton of starters in this one, but even when the Spurs rest their starters they have plenty of guys who can score in the lineup. The Spurs have scored at least 110 points in each of their past six games. Golden State plays at a quick pace, and the last time these teams met the score was 120-93. I expect a quick tempo here and very little defense. The over is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 against teams with a winning % less than 40%. The over is 14-4 in the last 18 meetings between these two in Golden State. Take the over.
04-26-12	Boston Red Sox v. Chicago White Sox OVER 8		10-3	Win	100	20 h 40 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Boston has scored 33 runs in their last 4 games. The Red Sox offense is hotter than any other offense in the majors. Humber is a solid pitcher, but we often see a pitcher coming off perfection struggle in the next game. Against a tough lineup like the Red Sox, I don't expect Humber to be too good here. Doubront isn't dominating at all, and the White Sox should put up a few runs as well. The over is 33-16-3 in the Red Sox last 52. The over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two. Take the over.
04-26-12	Miami Heat v. Washington Wizards UNDER 185		70-104	Win	100	6 h 51 m	Show
3 Star NBA Totals TKO The Miami Heat have nothing to play for right now, and they will be resting all their best players. LeBron, DWade, and Bosh will all sit. When these three sat last game the Heat put up 66 points. Washington has been a great 'under' team since their coaching change mid-season. The under is 18-6 in the Wizards last 24. The under is 34-16-2 in the Heat's last 52 games. Look for some sloppy basketball here that leads to a very low scoring game. I like the value on the under in this one.
04-26-12	Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 184		86-108	Loss	-110	6 h 41 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination The Philadelphia 76ers won't be playing many key players at all tonight. They would prefer to get the Chicago Bulls in the first round of the playoffs. Philly has a tough time scoring even with their starters in the lineup, and without them I think they'll put up a very low total here. Detroit isn't a team that dictates a fast pace at all either. The previous three regular season meetings between these teams have all finished far below the posted total. Look for this one to stay well below the total as well.
04-26-12	Seattle: H Noesi v. Detroit: R Porcello OVER 9		5-4	Push	0	13 h 37 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special Rick Porcello is an inconsistent pitcher. He was lit up in a big way last time. I expect better from him here, but Seattle should score a few. Detroit's offense has slumped a bit of late, but I think this is the perfect chance for them to wake up. Noesi doesn't have dominating stuff, and this will feel like a cake walk vs. going against King Felix like they did yesterday. We have a nice 'over' umpire in Jim Reynolds as well. The over is 6-1 in Reynolds last 7 games behind the plate. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
04-25-12	Los Angeles Angels v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5		2-3	Win	100	17 h 35 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO Jeremy Hellickson has been tremendous in his young career. Hellickson has terrific numbers at home, where his ERA is under 3. The Angels aren't hitting the ball very well at all right now. C.J. Wilson was the prize pitching acquisition of the offseason and he has been very good. I think this one has all the makings of a pitcher's duel. The under is 15-3 in Hellickson's last 18 home starts. The under is 5-1 in the Angels last 6 games overall. Look for a very low scoring game here.
04-25-12	San Francisco Giants v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8		2-4	Loss	-119	16 h 29 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Barry Zito has been pretty good so far this year, but past history tells us Zito could implode at any point. The Reds have a strong lineup against left-handed pitchers. Zito has struggled in the past against the Reds. The over is 5-2 in Zito's last 7 starts against the Reds. Cincinnati's offense has been in a slump, but they put up 9 runs last night. Don't be surprised if this team gets hot offensively now. Bronson Arroyo gives up more home runs than anyone, and GABP is a hitter's dream. Take the over.
04-24-12	Philadelphia Phillies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9		8-5	Win	100	20 h 9 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination I absolutely love playing the 'over' at Chase Field with the roof open. The ball falls out of this stadium in a big way when there is heat and low humidity. Game time temperature is expected to be in the low 90's with low humidity here. Josh Collmenter has been getting blasted all through Spring Training and then into the regular season. It seems hitters are onto his odd delivery. Vance Worley is a pretty good pitcher, but the DBacks should put up some runs here, especially with Upton back in the lineup. Take the over.
04-24-12	Los Angeles Clippers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 193		102-109	Loss	-110	5 h 20 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination The Clippers and the Hawks both have plenty to play for in this game. Both currently have home court advantage in the playoffs, but they could lose it if they play poorly to finish out the regular season. Higher scoring games have been common in the NBA over the last couple weeks, but those have primarily been in games where teams had nothing to play for. Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo compared to the NBA average. Look for both defenses to work hard in this one. The first meeting between these two this year finished at 178 points. Take the under here.
04-23-12	Cleveland Cavaliers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 191		101-109	Loss	-110	5 h 45 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination Brent Barnaky is the lead official for this one. The under is 30-9 in his 39 games officiated this year. Memphis isn't a team that likes to push the pace, and they have been playing very good defense of late. I don't think the Cavs have anything to play for here, and they would actually be better off losing to increase their lottery chances. I don't expect to see either team pushing it in this one. Look for a little bit of a lazy game with sloppy offense. The under is 4-0 in the Grizzlies last 4 games against the Eastern Conference. Take the under.
04-22-12	Orlando Magic v. Denver Nuggets OVER 203.5		74-101	Loss	-110	18 h 9 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination Dwight Howard is out for the season. That certainly isn't good for Orlando's chances of going anywhere in the playoffs, but it does mean they play higher scoring games. The team is more of a run and gun team now. Denver plays at a faster tempo than anyone else in the NBA. The over is 8-0 in the Magic's last 8 games against the Western Conference. The over is also 4-0 in Orlando's last 4 as the underdog. Look for a quick paced game where neither team tries particularly hard on defense. Take the over.
04-22-12	Baltimore Orioles v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8		3-2	Loss	-100	14 h 20 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Both of these teams have better offenses than they do defenses or pitching staffs at this point. Chen has been solid in his first couple starts, but the Angels offense is much better than they have shown this year and I think they'll get to him here. Haren hasn't been particularly sharp this year and the Orioles have several guys hitting the ball very well right now. Angel Campos is a solid 'over' umpire and the wind is blowing out in this one. Take the over here.
04-22-12	Minnesota Twins v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5		2-6	Loss	-104	12 h 27 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO Francisco Liriano has been a disaster so far this year. He has a WHIP well over 2, and everyone who has seen him has been teeing off on his pitches. Tampa Bay is hitting the ball well so far this year. Jeff Niemann is a solid pitcher, but the Twins should be able to score some here. Mark Wegner is a favorable umpire for the over because of his small strike zone. The over is 6-0 in Liriano's last 6 road starts. The over is 4-0 in Tampa Bay's last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 games. Take the over.
04-21-12	San Francisco Giants v. New York Mets UNDER 7.5		4-5	Loss	-100	11 h 33 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special The San Francisco Giants do not have a strong offense. This team will likely struggle to score all year. In the Giants last 8 games, none of them have gone above 7 runs in total. San Francisco's pitching staff is very good. Ryan Vogelsong is still underrated by the oddsmakers. The under is 20-7 in his last 27 starts. Mike Pelfrey is tough to get a read on, but I expect him to be helped in a big way by Doug Eddings. Eddings is the single best 'under' umpire in baseball because of his huge strike zone. The under is 4-1-1 in Pelfrey's last 6 starts against the Giants. Take the under.
04-19-12	Milwaukee Bucks v. Indiana Pacers OVER 203		109-118	Win	100	29 h 36 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination For quite some time now the Milwaukee Bucks have been my favorite 'over' team. This team is running and gunning with the best of them right now. They lost last night 121-112 to Washington. This past Saturday the Bucks and Pacers met. The score finished 105-99. In that game, the teams went into a horrible drought in the fourth quarter and actually went three minutes without scoring a point. Expect both teams to shoot a better percentage here. The pace should still be very quick. The over is 14-3 in the Bucks last 17 following a game where they allowed 100 points or more. The over is 11-3 in their last 14 road games. Take the over here.
04-19-12	Cincinnati: B Arroyo v. St Louis: Wainwright OVER 7.5		6-3	Win	100	10 h 56 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special Bronson Arroyo is definitely a fly ball pitcher. Arroyo gave up a ridiculous 46 home runs last year. The wind will be blowing out nicely at Saint Louis Thursday afternoon. The Cardinals have plenty of guys who are capable of going deep. Adam Wainwright doesn't look right on the mount just yet. The Reds offense has struggled this year, but they have too much talent to put up nothing offensively every single game. Look for them to get going a bit against Wainwright here. Take the over.
04-18-12	Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 192		110-117	Loss	-105	19 h 21 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination There isn't a more important game on Wednesday's NBA slate as far as playoff implications than this matchup. The Rockets have been falling fast and hard, and they sit in the 9th spot just out of the playoffs right now. Dallas is far from comfortably in. In fact, after their Triple Overtime loss at Utah they are just 1.5 games ahead of the Rockets and the Suns. This game should have a playoff atmosphere to it. Easy baskets should be difficult to come by. The first two games between these two went well under this total in regulation. Look for a defensive battle. Take the under.
04-18-12	Milwaukee Bucks v. Washington Wizards OVER 203		112-121	Win	100	28 h 22 m	Show
3 Star NBA Totals TKO The Bucks have been my single favorite 'over' team all year. Milwaukee pushes the pace more now with Monta Ellis in the fold, and this team can put up the points in bunches. The last time these teams met the final score was 112-98. Washington doesn't play good defense, and the Wizards aren't good at controlling the tempo. The Bucks should be able to dictate the pace in this game. The over is 10-3 in Milwaukee's last 13 road games. The over is 31-14 in the Bucks last 45 games overall. Take the over.
04-18-12	Pittsburgh Pirates v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5		2-1	Loss	-108	14 h 30 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Special Chase Field becomes a hitters paradise when the roof is open. It is even better for hitters during the day time. This game will be played in temperatures above 90 degrees with low humidity, so the ball should carry extremely well. The over is 12-2 in the last 14 day games at Arizona with the roof open. The over is 6-0 in the Diamondbacks last 6 games with the total set at 7-8.5 runs. Both teams should be able to put up runs in this environment. Look for this one to get over the posted total.
04-17-12	Minnesota: F Liriano v. New York (A): C Sabathia OVER 8.5		3-8	Win	100	18 h 55 m	Show
3 Star MLB Total Domination Francisco Liriano isn't right so far this season. There might not be a pitcher in the majors who can be hot then cold more than Liriano. In bad form, he is extremely bad. The Yankees lineup is tough on lefties, and I think they'll knock him out of this game early. C.C. Sabathia has an ERA over 6 so far this season. The over is 5-0 in Liriano's last 5 road starts. The over is 4-0 in Sabathia's last 4 starts overall. The over is 10-2 in Sabathia's last 12 against the AL Central. The over is 4-1 in Sabathia's last 5 against the Twins. Backed by a 23-3 winning angle, I like the over in this one.
04-16-12	New Orleans Hornets v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 186		75-67	Win	100	17 h 3 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination This will be an extremely ugly game, and I don't advise anyone actually watch this game. Having said that, I do believe there is plenty of value on the total in this game. The first meeting between these two teams finished at 144 points. That is about what an average college basketball game would finish at. The two teams will certainly shoot better than they did in that one, but this line is 42 points higher than that final total. New Orleans is giving up just 87.8 points per game in their last five. The Bobcats are averaging just 84.8 points in their last five. The under is 13-3 in the Hornets last 16 following a straight up win by 10 or more. The under is also 4-1 in the Hornets last 5 games. Take the under.
04-16-12	Atlanta Hawks v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 182.5		109-87	Loss	-105	7 h 55 m	Show
3 Star NBA Totals TKO I had the 'under' last night in the Hawks/Raptors game. I took a tough loss on that one thanks to a boat load of scoring at the end of the game and some red hot shooting from the Raptors. I'm going back to the under in this game. I simply don't think a short-handed Toronto team can shoot 55.4% from the floor again. In addition, there were 54 free throws taken last night. I expect fewer in this game. The Hawks need to win this game, and I expect their defense to be the difference here. The under is 5-0 in Toronto's last 5 home games. Take the under.
04-15-12	LA Anaheim: J Williams v. New York (A): I Nova OVER 10		5-11	Win	102	19 h 6 m	Show
3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total Los Angeles and New York have two of the best lineups in all of baseball. Albert Pujols hasn't had a breakout game yet, but he will soon. The Angels should be able to get to Ivan Nova, especially with the wind blowing out at gametime. Jerome Williams isn't really a starting pitcher in the majors, and I think he'll struggle badly against this loaded Yankees lineup. The over is 7-3-1 in Nova's last 11 home games. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York. Look for a high scoring game. Take the over.
04-15-12	Toronto Raptors v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 184.5		102-86	Loss	-105	18 h 34 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination In two meetings this season the Raptors and Hawks finished with a total of 177 points two times. The posted total here is 184.5 despite the fact that Toronto will be without leading scorer Andrea Bargnani. Without him in the lineup, the Raptors move much slower and get less good looks at the basket. The Hawks are a defensive-minded team. Atlanta should buckle down and hold Toronto around 80 points in this one. The under is 7-1 in the Raptors last 8 games overall. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the under.
04-15-12	Pittsburgh: K Correia v. San Francisco: Vogelsong OVER 7	Top	4-1	Loss	-100	16 h 53 m	Show
5 Star MLB Total Domination The total is set very low in this one. I understand why the books set the total low because both offenses aren't very good, but there are several factors working for the over in this one. The wind is blowing out 10 mph. Tim McClelland is the home plate umpire, and he has one of the smallest strike zones of any umpire. Both pitches rely heavily on getting the corners, and I don't they will here. Ryan Vogelsong has a career ERA of almost 6 against the Pirates. The over is 9-3 in Correia's last 12 starts. I think this one is a run or two too low. Take the over!
04-15-12	Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5	Top	13-7	Win	100	14 h 14 m	Show
5 Star MLB Top Total The Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals game was my 5 Star Top Total play of the day yesterday. That one worked out well as the final was 11-9. I don't expect anything silly high like that again, but there are tons of factors pointing toward another over. Ubaldo Jimenez has not been good on the road in his time with Cleveland. Mendoza has looked solid for KC, but he is untested. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 25-30 mph in this game. Both teams can put up the runs. The over is 8-0 in the Royals last 8 home games. The over is 6-0 in Jimenez's last 6 road starts. The over is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take the over big here!
04-15-12	Milwaukee: C Narveson v. Atlanta: B Beachy OVER 8.5		4-7	Win	105	13 h 23 m	Show
3 Star MLB Early Bird Total The Atlanta Braves have a solid lineup. Through the first few games of the year they weren't showing their potential much at all, but the last couple games they are bashing the baseball. They put up 8 runs last night, and I think they could put up a big number here again. Chris Narveson has been poor on the road in the past, and I see no reason to believe that changes here. Milwaukee has one of the better lineups in the National League, and they should be able to score some against a mediocre pitcher like Beachy. The over is 5-0 in Beachy's last 5 home starts. The over is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 games. The over is 7-0 in Narveson's last 7 road games with a total between 7 and 8.5. The over is 5-0-1 in the Brewers last 6 Sunday games. A combined 22-0 winning angle here! Take the over here.
04-15-12	Cincinnati: M Leake v. Washington: R Detwiler UNDER 8		8-5	Loss	-117	13 h 11 m	Show
3 Star MLB Totals TKO The Cincinnati Reds have been one of the most disappointing teams in Major League Baseball so far this year. The Reds lineup has been terrible of late. They have scored more than 4 runs just once all season. Mike Leake is a solid young pitcher who does a good job keeping the ball down. He should fare well in Washington. Ross Detwiler is an improving pitcher who I believe will bring some good value to the under this season. The under is 18-7-4 in the teams last 29 meetings. Take the under.
04-14-12	Indiana Pacers v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 206.5		105-99	Loss	-105	20 h 36 m	Show
3 Star NBA Total Domination The Bucks continue to be my single favorite team in the NBA to play the 'over' with. The Bucks have scored 100 points or more in 7 of their last 10 games. Indiana has been scoring at a nice clip of late too. The Pacers have piled up at least 100 points in 8 of their last 9 games. The over is 7-1 in the Pacers last 8 games. The over is 20-7 in the Bucks last 27 home games. It is also 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two. The last meeting finished at 229 points. Look for a high scoring game. Take the over.

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