Sports Picks & Predictions

*5 Star MLB Top Total* The Cleveland Indians took it to Luke Hochevar early yesterday. Johnathan Sanchez toes the hill in this one for the Royals. Sanchez is capable of melting down too, especially with his control problems. Jeanmar Gomez has never had much success on the road in his career. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 20 mph here. Both lineups are improved this year. The trends here are amazing, and they can't be overlooked. The over is 5-0 in Gomez's last 5 road starts. The over is 7-0 in the Royals last 7 home games. The over is 5-0 in the Indians last 5 Saturday games. The over is 3-0 in Gary Darling's last 3 games behind home plate. A PERFECT 20-0 angle backs this one. Take the over big here.

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Adam Wilk makes his Major League debut in this game for the Tigers. Wilk is a solid prospect, but I'm not sure he's ready for the big leagues just yet. Starting in Chicago against a White Sox lineup that is actually hitting pretty well right now isn't a particularly easy spot for the kid. At the same time, Gavin Floyd is capable of getting roughed up. The Tigers have one of the best lineups in all of baseball. The over is 9-3-1 in Floyd's last 13 home starts. The over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Take the over.

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The first two games between these teams were very low scoring, but I think this sets us up with a very nice value here. Homer Bailey has never been consistent enough to be considered a good pitcher in the majors. Bailey has an ERA of nearly 7 in April during his career. Edwin Jackson has been hit hard early in the season as well. Both bullpens were used a lot the last couple days, and that could get us an extra run or two in this game. The wind is blowing out and we have a favorable umpire. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* I always take an extra hard look at early Saturday or Sunday tip times in the NBA. These games go 'under' the posted total more often than not. The Clippers and Warriors are playing a very rare 12:30 pm local time Saturday afternoon game here. Both teams will likely be a little less likely to push the pace in this one. The Clippers defense has improved a ton over the last few games. The under is 5-1 in the Warriors last 6. The under is 3-1-1 in the Clippers last 5. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Milwaukee Bucks are my single favorite team in the league to play the 'over' with right now. The Bucks are pushing the pace in a big way with Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis in the backcourt. Detroit has been scoring more points of late, especially at home. The Pistons are allowing 101.4 points per game in their last five. Milwaukee has scored 100 or more in 6 of their last 9 games overall. The over is 9-3 in the Bucks last 12 road games. The over is 10-1 in the Pistons last 11 when playing on no rest. I'd play this one all the way up to 203. Take the over here.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* Toronto is short-handed right now. Andrea Bargnani won't be available in this one, and he is the team's leading scorer. Jose Calderon, Amir Johnson, and Leinas Kleiza are also dinged up. Ray Allen will miss this game for the Celtics. These teams have played three times this year and none of the games have gone above 169 points. With so many starters out here, it's hard to imagine this one becoming a high scoring game. Boston is winning with defense now, and they should hold Toronto's weak offense down. The under is 6-1 in the Celtics last 7 on 1 day of rest. The under is 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 on 1 day of rest. The under is also 4-0 in the Raptors last 4 home games. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* Kevin Love went down with a concussion in last night's loss at Denver. Minnesota is already without Ricky Rubio and now without Love they'll be very short-handed. Darko, Luke Ridnour, and Wayne Ellington are all listed as questionable. The Clippers have been playing better of late, and I think their defense will slow this game down. The three referees in this one have a big lean to the under. The under is a combined 75-48 in their 123 games officiated this season. The under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between these two in Minnesota. Take the under.

*5 Star MLB Top Total* The 17-8 run scoring fest in Coors Field shows just what this ballpark can do to pitchers who aren't on their game. Lincecum and Guthrie seems like a great pitching matchup compared to Bumgarner and Moyer. Jamie Moyer is 49 years old and I find it hard to believe he can shut down anyone right now. Moyer has an ERA above 10 at Coors Field, and now he has to call it home. Bumgarner is a pretty good pitcher, but his ERA is over 6 in April in his young career. The over is 8-0 in Bumgarner's last 8 road starts. The over is 13-3 in the Rockies last 16 as a home underdog. Take the over big in this one!

*3 Star MLB Total Value Play* Doug Eddings has been the most consistent 'under' umpire in baseball over the past few years. No one has a bigger strike zone than Eddings, and that should help both of these pitchers a lot. Vargas improved a ton at the end of last year, and he has had success against Texas. Derek Holland can be lights out when he is on, and Seattle's lineup isn't very good at all. The under is 7-1 in the Rangers last 8 home games. The under is 4-1 in Vargas' last 5 starts in Texas. I like the value on the under here.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* Minnesota has really fallen off a cliff of late. Ricky Rubio's absence has been too much for the team to overcome. The Wolves have lost six straight contests. The under is 6-2 in their last 8 games. The offense just isn't clicking the way it was earlier in the season. Denver's defense has been slightly better of late. The Nuggets are giving up 98.1 points per game in their last five games. The under is a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games. It is also 6-0 in their last 6 games as the favorite. Take the under in this one.

*3 Star NBA Totals Takedown* The Lakers will be without Kobe in this one. Mike Brown ripped the team after their loss to Phoenix. Brown wants this team to be about defense, but they were getting away from that. I expect the Lakers to slow the pace down and look to make this a defensive battle with the Spurs. The referees in this one have a combined record of 75-47 to the 'under' this year. This is a pretty high total considering Bryant won't play in this game. I like the pace to stay slower than expected. Take the under.

*3 Star MLB Total Value* Sam Holbrook is a huge 'over' umpire. Holbrook has one of the smallest strike zones in the major leagues, and that will hurt both of these pitchers who work the edges of the strike zone. Wandy Rodriguez is a very good pitcher, but several of the current Braves players have had nice success against him. Randall Delgado isn't consistent enough to be a solid MLB starter just yet. The Braves offense seems to be waking up after a terrible start. I like the value on the over in this game.

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Bill Miller is one of my favorite 'under' umpires in all of baseball. Miller has a huge strike zone and the under has cashed in bigtime over the last few years in his games behind home plate. We have two very good pitchers who pitch best in the first half of the year in this game. The cool weather in Cincinnati will help the ball stay in the ballpark more than normal. This is a get away day for both teams, and we'll likely see some regulars sit in this game. Lance Berkman and Brandon Phillips are likely to miss the game due to injury. Take the under.

*5 Star NBA Top Total* The Sacramento Kings have had two straight games where they didn't reach 100 points. That hasn't happened in a long time and head coach Keith Smart was open about the fact that he wasn't happy at the fact that this team hasn't pushed the tempo enough the last couple games. Look for Sacramento to be pushing the pace in a big way in this game. Dallas has scored over 100 points in 5 of their last 7 meetings with Sacramento (97 and 99 in the other two). The three referees in this game have a combined record of 76-46 to the over. That is extremely rare in a season where the 'under' has cashed in 52% of the time overall. The pace should be there in this one. The over is 6-0 in the Kings last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Dallas' last 4 games against a team with a winning percentage below 40%. This 10-0 angle should hold up tonight. Take the over big!

*3 Star MLB Total Value* Dana DeMuth was behind the plate 34 times last year. The over was 26-8 in those 34 games. He has a tight strike zone, and he'll make it difficult on young Blake Beavan and Neftali Feliz. Feliz is making his first start here, and I suspect he'll be a bit out of rhythm. Beavan hasn't pitched in Texas, and I don't think he'll like this hitters ballpark. The over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these teams at Texas. Texas is capable of getting to this number by themselves, and I think Seattle will score some off Feliz. Take the over.

*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Daniel Bard is making his first career start in this one. Bard has very good stuff, but he sometimes has issues with his control. Toronto is a very good hitting team. Bard is 1-10 in his career on the road, and his ERA is 5.40 at Toronto. Kyle Drabek has a horrible 12.00 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox. It doesn't hurt at all that we have Tim McClelland as the home plate umpire here. He is one of the best 'over' umpires in the business, because of the extremely low percentage of strikes he calls. The over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Toronto. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* My single favorite team to bet the 'over' with this year has been the Milwaukee Bucks. The over is 19-7 in their home games this year. Oklahoma City hasn't played very well of late, but I expect them to turn it back around. Milwaukee pushes the tempo better than anyone else in the league right now. Oklahoma City's offense should get plenty of open looks, but the Bucks will get their points too. Both teams are capable of putting up 110 or 115 points here. The over is 10-2 in the Bucks last 12 as a home underdog. The over is 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings. Take the over.

*3 Star MLB Total Domination* In his career, Homer Bailey has seen a lot of the St. Louis Cardinals. Bailey has started nine games at St. Louis, but his ERA is 5.64. Jake Westbrook is on the mound for the Cardinals, and his worst month of the year historically has been April. The wind is expected to be howling out toward center in this one. Great American Ballpark is a major hitters park to start with, and with the aid of the wind the ball should be flying out a lot Monday night. The over is 19-7 in Bailey's last 26 starts. The over is 4-0 in Westbrook's last 4 starts. Take the over.

*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a hitter's paradise with the roof open. Aaron Hill bashed two home runs yesterday as I cashed on the over in that game on my 5 Star Top Play. Matt Cain is very solid, but he does give up the long ball a decent amount. Josh Collmenter has had some success in the majors, but I think hitters will catch on against his strange delivery this year. The over is 5-0-1 in Arizona's last 6 home games. The over is 13-4 in San Francisco's last 17 road games. I think this one gets over the posted total.

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox and the Detroit Tigers have two of the best offenses in the American League. These teams can pile up the runs in bunches. Max Scherzer has been terrible against the Red Sox in the past. He has an ERA over 9 against them in his career. Clay Buchholz is a good pitcher, but he is coming off injuries and I don't think he'll dominate this terrific Tigers lineup. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 22 mph in this game. Both teams have plenty of big boppers to knock it out. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Late Night Bailout* Golden State started the season out trying to slow the tempo down, but with all their injuries they have gone back to a team that tries to push the pace and score before the defense gets set. Denver plays at a very quick pace thanks to their athleticism and Ty Lawson at the point guard spot. The over is 8-2 in Golden State's last 10 games. The over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these teams. I projected this one at 212 points. Look for this one to go over the posted total.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* New Orleans was absolutely blasted last night in San Antonio, and that is a good thing for the 'under' in this one. This team plays at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA, and they should get back to what they like to do in this one. Minnesota is short-handed now, and they haven't been quite as powerful offensively. The first two meetings between these teams have finished far under the posted total. The under is 4-0 in the Hornets last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in Minnesota's last 5 against a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in New Orleans. A perfect 14-0 angle backs this one. I like the under.

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The New York Yankees have an amazing lineup, and anytime I see a total this low in one of their games I have to take a second look. David Price is a very good pitcher, but the 'over' is 7-3 in his last 10 starts against New York. Kuroda will be making his first start in a Yankees uniform here. He is a good pitcher, but I don't find him to be dominating. Sam Holbrook is one of the biggest over umpires in baseball, and he'll pinch the strike zone a lot here. Take the over in this one.

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Boston Celtics were ripped in a big way by their coach Doc Rivers after the game Thursday night. Boston dominated early against the Bulls, but they fell apart late because of poor defense. The Celtics have the best field goal percentage defense in the NBA, and I think they'll show up ready to play tonight. All three games between these two teams have finished well under this posted total so far this year. Indiana has been scoring a lot of late, but they haven't played any defenses nearly as good as Boston. Take the under.

*5 Star MLB Top Total* Chase Field is a whole different stadium when the roof is open. The dry heat allows the ball to travel in a big way. Three home runs were hit yesterday and that was in a much lower temperature than is expected for this game. Daniel Hudson is a very good pitcher, but he struggled early in the year when the roof was open last season. Jim Reynolds is one of the best over umpires in the game. The over is 119-92 in the last six years when he is behind the dish. Even better, Madison Bumgarner struggles on the road. The over is a perfect 7-0 in his last 7 road starts. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. Take the over big here.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Charlotte Bobcats are easily the worst team in the NBA right now. Charlotte plays to the pace of their opponent because they really don't have any particular style. Milwaukee is running and gunning with the best of them right now. Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis can score in bunches from the backcourt. Milwaukee could easily put up 115 or 120 points against this dreadful Bobcats defense. The over is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 as a favorite of 11 points or more. The over is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 against the NBA Southeast Division. The over is 3-0-1 in the Bobcats last 4 against the Central Division. This 15-0 winning angle is a strong one. Take the over here.

*3 Star NBA Total Value* Kyrie Irving will miss this game. Without Kyrie Irving the Cleveland Cavaliers are a real mess. They only managed 75 points at New York when Irving missed that game. Toronto has been playing solid defense of late, and the Raptors should slow down the Cavs here. Toronto isn't the type of team that pushes the tempo, so I don't expect the pace to be very quick here. The Cavs are averaging just 84 points per game in their last five, and without Irving that could get even worse. The under is 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a very odd position here. The Thunder have lost two games in a row coming into this one. They are just one game ahead of the Spurs in the Western Conference standings. Indiana's offense has been in a great rhythm of late and I think the Pacers can score quite a few in this one. At the same time, I expect OKC to be much better offensively in this one. Durant, Westbrook, and Harden are tough matchups for the Pacers. Look for a high scoring game here. Take the over.

*3 Star MLB Total Domination* This total is set extremely low, and I don't think it should be. Both starting pitchers have struggled in this situation. Garcia is a good pitcher, but he has an ERA above 6 at Miller Park. Gallardo has an ERA of 5.66 in 11 starts against the Cardinals. Both of these teams are much better than the average offense in the majors. The over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings between these two in Milwaukee. I think this one has a good chance of getting to 9 or 10 runs. This one is likely an overreaction to so many games going 'under' yesterday. Take the value on the over.

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* I was waiting on this play to confirm the umpire and lineups. Now that both look solid, I am going to play the over here. Both pitching staffs are very poor. Carl Pavano and Jake Arrieta should not be an ace in any situation, but they are for these teams. Both of these offenses should be better than last year. The bullpens are both terrible in this one, and I expect them to get roughed up here. The over is 11-5-3 in Arrieta's last 19 home starts. The over is 5-2 in Pavano's last 7 road starts. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Late Night Total BAILOUT* The Sacramento Kings play at an extremely quick pace right now. They are a great 'over' team because they fly up and down the floor and play almost no defense. In the Kings last 13 games, only one of them has finished below this posted total of 206 points. In fact, that game finished at 205 points. The Clippers offense has found its stride again of late, as evidenced by their 108 points last night against the Lakers. The Clippers should pile up the points against this poor defense, and the Kings should score plenty as well. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Total Knockout* The Washington Wizards are a completely different team than they were earlier this year. Washington plays better defense without Nick Young and Javale McGee, and they don't push the tempo as much. John Wall is struggling right now. Detroit is playing better basketball right now as well. The Pistons are giving up just 87.4 points per game in their last five contests. The under is 7-0 in the Wizards last 7 road games. The under is 5-0 in the Pistons last 5 playing on 1 day of rest. Take the under here.

*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Washington Wizards are a completely different team than they were at the beginning of the year. Without Nick Young and Javale McGee they play more defense and don't play quite as quickly. The under is 11-1 in their last 12 games overall. Indiana is coming off a nice win at home against the Knicks last night. The Pacers and Wizards have played twice in the last couple weeks. The final total in those games was 168 and 182 points. The shooting numbers weren't great in those games, but the pace stayed slow. I see no reason to expect a fast pace here. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Golden State Warriors haven't been nearly as good on offense away from home. Golden State averages 96.9 points per game on the road. Memphis gives up just 92.9 points per game at home. The Grizzlies are coming off a massive win at Oklahoma City last night, and I think they'll be a little less pumped up in this one. Look for the Grizzlies to slow the game down, especially if point guard Mike Conley misses another game. The under is 9-3 in Golden State's last 12 road games. The under is 5-1 in the Grizzlies last 6 games. I like the value on the under in this one.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder have met three times already this year. The final score has ended at 193, 195, and 195 points. The posted total on those games was 192, 193, and 193.5. We got a total about five points higher here. Memphis knows they can't just run and gun with Oklahoma City, so I expect them to slow this game down. This is a case where I believe the odds got a little out of control. Since the total here is set so much higher, I think the under is the play. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Value* Milwaukee is one of my favorite 'over' teams. The Bucks can really push the tempo. Brandon Jennings now has Monta Ellis to help him push the pace in the backcourt. Washington has seen 11 straight games go under the posted total. The Wizards have played against a lot of teams that slow the tempo down, but that won't be the case tonight. The over is 22-8 in the Bucks last 30 games. The last time these two teams played the score was 119-118. The total is posted significantly lower here because the Wizards are on an 'under' streak. Look for this one to go well over the posted total. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Washington Wizards have changed more than any other team in the NBA since the trade deadline. They still aren't a very good team, but they do at least try on the defensive end now. Washington isn't in quite as much of a hurry on the offensive end either. The under is a perfect 10-0 in Washington's last 10 games overall. Toronto isn't a high-powered offensive team, and I think this game will be a sloppy one. Look for poor shooting and a slow tempo to keep this one under the posted total.

*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Denver Nuggets are the worst team in the league at guarding beyond the three-point line. Orlando relies heavily on three-point shooting from guys like Anderson, Redick, Richardson, and Nelson. Look for the Magic to knock down a ton of three-point shots in this game. Denver pushes the pace more than any team in the NBA, and the Nuggets should be able to pile up the points against a mediocre Orlando defense. The over is 4-1 in Orlando's last 5. The over is 5-2 in Denver's last 7. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Late Night Bailout Total* The New Jersey Nets are a strange team in that they are quite a bit better on the road than they are at home. The Nets are 11-16 on the road and only 7-19 at home. Sacramento is playing at a breakneck pace right now. The Kings are putting up 90 shots or more almost every game. The Nets are poor defensively, and I think they'll keep the tempo quick as well with Deron Williams at the point. Four of the Kings last five home games have finished with at least 214 total points. Take the over here.

*5 Star Final Four Top Total* Ohio State and Kansas will square off in the second Final Four matchup Saturday night. This should be a great game because of the intriguing matchups on the court. Thomas Robinson against Jared Sullinger and Aaron Craft against Tyshawn Taylor are two to watch. Aaron Craft is the best on the ball defender in the nation and he has 13 steals already in the NCAA Tournament. Tyshawn Taylor has 124 turnovers this year and he is careless with the ball. Look for Craft to force Taylor into quite a few turnovers in this one. Ohio State has picked up the tempo a lot over the last few games, and they are playing their best basketball of the year. The over is 10-1 in Ohio State's last 11 games. Look for Ohio State to use their athleticism in the open floor so Kansas can't set up their great half court defense. Both teams have plenty of guys who can score. In addition, this game should be close all the way, and I fully expect a lot of free throws in this game. Take the over big here.

*5 Star TGIF Top Total* Minnesota isn't able to push the tempo the same way right now, because they have so many injuries. In addition to Rubio being out for the year, they will be without Barea, Beasley, and Pekovic in this game. Boston is one of the best defensive teams in the league, and the Celtics are great at controlling the tempo. The referee crew here makes this a stronger play for me. Lead offical Brent Barnaky is 26-6 to the 'under' this year. The other two officials are a combined 46-28 to the under. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Minnesota. Take the under big.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Milwaukee Bucks are definitely one of my favorite teams to bet the 'over' with right now. Since adding Monta Ellis this team runs and guns more than ever. Plenty of guys on this team are capable of scoring a lot of points in a small amount of time. Cleveland likes to push the tempo as well, but their offense has struggled of late. I think the Cavs offense will benefit from the quick pace of the Bucks, and Milwaukee isn't very good defensively. The over is 26-9 in the Bucks last 35. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Total Value* The New York Knicks are a completely different team under Mike Woodson. Woodson likes the team to run offensive sets in the half court and the team focuses much more on defense. They aren't into simply outscoring teams the way they used to be. Atlanta is one of the better defensive teams in the league and they slow the pace down as well. The first meeting between these two finished at 99-82. The under is 6-1 in the Knicks last 7. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Take the under here.

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Philadelphia 76ers are a nice under team because of the way they control the tempo and play solid defense. Washington was one of the fastest paced teams in the league earlier this year, but since the trade deadline they have slowed down in a big way. This has given the under some big value of late. The under is 9-0 in Washington's last 9 games. The under is 7-3 in the Sixers last 10 road games. I projected this one at 183 or 184 points. Look for a half court game that stays under the posted total. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Finals Rematch Total* Dallas and Miami met on Christmas Day in the NBA Season Opener and Miami won easily. The Heat have played well overall this year, but their offense has been surprisingly poor of late. Only once in the last ten games have they topped 100 points. That includes two overtime games where the Heat had 94 and 87 points at the end of regulation. The first game of the season had a total half a point lower than this, which seems odd since Miami is struggling badly on offense now. Dallas has been picking up the defense of late. The under is 14-3 in the Heat's last 17 home games. Look for both defenses to play well. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Washington Wizards have been a completely different team of late. Since the trade deadline the team has slowed down their pace quite a bit. No longer do they have Nick Young, JaVale McGee, and Andray Blatche jacking up shots. The under is 8-0 in the last 8 games for Washington. The under is 4-0 in the Pacers last 4 Thursday games. These two teams played to a 85-83 final last week. Both of these teams have been playing better defense of late. I projected this line at 191. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Value* The New York Knicks have been playing much better defense under Mike Woodson. In addition, they have slowed down the game quite a bit. This is now a half court team that runs sets to get the ball to a certain spot on the floor. Orlando is one of the slower teams in the league as far as tempo. The last meeting between these two went over this total, but that was before the Knicks slowed down the pace. In addition, Orlando made 17 3 pointer's in that game. The under is 6-0 in the Knicks last 6 games. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Raptors are a classic team that plays to the pace of their opponent. Toronto doesn't control the tempo at all, but Denver definitely can. The Nuggets play at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA. Denver has scored at least 100 points in four straight games, and the Toronto defense isn't good at all. DeMar Derozan should be back for Toronto in this one, which is good for the over as well. I projected this game at 205 points. The over is 5-0 in the Nuggets last 5 games overall. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Late Night Bailout Total* Golden State is short-handed right now, and they shouldn't be able to pile up too many points against a defensive-minded team like the Lakers. Los Angeles is one of the slower teams in the NBA in terms of pace. Earlier this year the teams met and the final was 187, and that was with Golden State at full strength. It doesn't hurt that we got a nice officiating crew in this one. Mike Callahan is here and the 'under' is 25-9 in his 34 games this season. Take the under in this one.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Portland Trail Blazers seem to have picked up the pace a bit under Coach Kanales. Portland doesn't play much defense, and the Thunder should be able to take advantage of that. The first two meetings this year both easily went over the posted total. I expected this line to be 201 or so. The Thunder shoot 80% from the free throw line as a team, and in a game that could be close to the end that could be a major plus in this matchup. In 8 of their last 9 games the Thunder have scored at least 103 points. Take the over here.

*3 Star NBA Total Value* I leaned to the 'under' in this one before seeing the referee's and that pushed me to make this a play. The refs in this game have a combined record to the under of a stunning 70-35. Lead official Brent Barnaky is 24-6 to the under. Expect less fouls called than a normal game here. Both teams have played some overs lately, which is giving us a bit of an inflated line. Kevin Martin and Kyle Lowry are two of the Rockets best scorers, but they are out for this one. I projected this one at 190. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* Since Ricky Rubio left the lineup with a season-ending injury, the Timberwolves have gotten much worse, but they are also having higher scoring games. The team plays very little defense and they don't use the shot clock much at all. Six of their last eight games have finished with a total of at least 214 points. The Grizzlies are healthy now and they can put up the points against teams that don't play defense. Look for Memphis to get Randolph going some in this game. The over is 15-5 in the TWolves last 20 road games. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Total Value* No one in the NBA plays at a tempo as quick as the Denver Nuggets. The Bulls have had some high scoring games this year with Derrick Rose out of the lineup. Chicago should get plenty of second chance opportunities because of their advantage down low in this one. At the same time, Ty Lawson will have the quickness advantage without Rose in the lineup for the Bulls. The over is 13-5 in the Nuggets last 18 games. I projected this one at 202 points. Look for a quick tempo here. Take the over in this one.

*3 Star NBA Top Total* The Boston Celtics will be without Ray Allen on Monday night. Boston is playing in a dreaded back-to-back situation, and this Celtics team just finished an eight game road stand. They played one home and now head back on the road for this one right away. Charlotte has been competing harder of late. The Bobcats should have more energy than the Celtics in this game. The under is 4-1 in the Celtics last 5 games. I projected this line at 181 points. Look for a slow paced game where both teams struggle from the floor. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* Orlando has slowed the pace down quite a bit of late. They are now one of the slowest paced teams in teams of possessions per game in the entire NBA. Toronto will be without DeMar Derozan in this one and he averages 16.5 points per game. The Raptors are a poor team offensively to start with, and without Derozan breaking down the defense it could be a long night for their offense. The under is a perfect 9-0 in the Raptors last 9 Monday games at home. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 against the Eastern Conference. I'll back this 13-0 winning angle here. Take the under.

*5 Star NCAA Hidden Gem Total* The smaller postseason tournaments like this one tend to have very high scoring games early on, but as they go farther along the games slow down a bit. Oakland is the type of team that loves to run and gun no matter what, but I don't think Utah State will play that game with them here. Utah State is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation, and they are great at melting down clock when they have a lead. They have a great homecourt advantage and I expect them to win this game, so I think they'll take the air out of the ball late. I projected this one at 148 or 149. Take the under.

*3 Star Kansas/UNC Total Domination* I wouldn't think that Kendall Marshall could go in this one, and even if he does it's hard to imagine him being terribly effective. Stilman White isn't a bad player, but the tempo is much slower when he is in the game. Kansas has the single best two-point defense in the nation, which is huge because North Carolina relies heavily on shooting it from inside. The Tar Heels really aren't that great from beyond the arc. Kansas has been struggling shooting the ball, but Bill Self's team plays very good defense. The under is 17-4 in Kansas' last 21 NCAA Tournament games. The under is 4-0 in the Jayhawks last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-1 in UNC's last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Take the under.

*3 Star Baylor/Kentucky Total* The Baylor Bears have picked up the pace quite a bit in their past couple tournament games. Pierre Jackson is very quick and he looks to push and get it to the athletic frontcourt players as soon as possible. Kentucky has put on two offensive clinic's in a row against Iowa State and then Indiana. Marquis Teague has gained tons of confidence of late and that makes a world of difference for the Wildcats on offense. Don't expect either team to slow this tempo down. The over is 4-1 in the Wildcats last 5. The over is 6-1 in Baylor's last 7. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Late Night Bailout* The Golden State Warriors simply don't have the horses to be pushing the pace right now. They no longer have Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry is out with an ankle injury. The Kings like to run and gun, but their offense isn't nearly as good on the road. Sacramento averages just 93.7 points per game on the road. This won't be a popular play with the public, but I don't mind fading the public in this spot. Look for both offenses to struggle more than expected here. This is a very high number. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* Both teams are on the final leg of a back-to-back-to-back scheduling spot. It's controversial what that means to the total, but I think in this case it will likely mean tired legs that don't play very much defense. The Bucks are pushing the pace in a big way since the trade deadline. Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings is a terrific backcourt to push the tempo with. The over is 24-8 in the Bucks last 32 games. It is 15-5-1 in their 21 home games this year. Take the over here.

*3 Star OSU/Syracuse Total Takedown* Ohio State turned on the jets in the second half against Cincinnati after squandering a lead earlier in the game. Aaron Craft is the best on the ball defender in the nation, and you can bet he'll make life difficult for Jardine and Waiters. Syracuse has forced quite a few turnovers this year, and I think they'll get some run out opportunities here. The Buckeyes have been pushing the pace much more of late. The over is 9-1 in Ohio State's last 10 (the one loss was by a single point). Take the over in this one.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Washington Wizards aren't the same team since the trade deadline, but that has actually been a good thing. They got rid of Nick Young and JaVale McGee, and it seems like the team is playing much better defense. They aren't pushing the tempo as much, and the Hawks would definitely prefer a half court game. The under is an impressive 5-0 in the Wizards last 5. The under is 5-0 in the Hawks last 5 games when playing on 0 days rest. The under is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The combined 14-0 under angle should carry on. Take the under.

*3 Star FLA/LOUIS Total Takedown* Rick Pitino and Billy Donovan should be a tremendous chess match in this one. Pitino's Cardinals showed just how tremendous their defense is last game against the Spartans of Michigan State. Michigan State, the top seed in the West, scored just 44 points against Louisville. Louisville should actually use the full court pressure to slow down Florida's guards and keep them out of the lane in this one. The Gators have slowed the tempo down a lot in the tournament thus far. The under is 10-1 in Lousville's last 11. The under is 3-0 in Florida's last 3. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* This game tips off at noon PST. The Clippers have been extremely lethargic of late, and I think this is another spot where they won't have much gas at all. The team has had a very rough schedule of late, and the offense just isn't clicking at all. Memphis is having some chemistry issues as well since Zach Randolph came back into the lineup. An early tip time like this makes me lean to the under to start with. The under is 6-0 in the Clippers last 6 home games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Portland Trail Blazers showed some fight last night by picking up a home win over the Memphis Grizzlies. Los Angeles picked up a massive win over Dallas on Wednesday night. The over is 8-1 in the Lakers last nine, but in this case I think that is just giving us a nice value. The Blazers appear to be playing a little slower tempo under Canales as their new coach. The Lakers are still one of the slowest paced teams in the league, and as long as shooting percentages aren't astronomical here I think the under is the way to go. Take the under.

*3 Star Indiana/Kentucky Total Domination* Indiana bested Kentucky 73-72 earlier this year. Kentucky went on to have a dominating season and become the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Coach Calipari and this Kentucky team certainly haven't forgotten that December loss at the hands of the Hoosiers. Kentucky's major strength is their defense. Opponents shoot just 37% from the floor and only 39% on two-point shots. Anthony Davis is the best shot blocker college basketball has seen in many years. The first game between these two finished at 145. Indiana made 6 out of 9 three-point shots in that one. Kentucky shot 56% from the floor in that game. At a neutral site and with much more on the line, I find it hard to believe the shooting percentages will be that high again. The under is 10-3-1 in Kentucky's last 14 neutral site games. The under is 6-1 in Indiana's last 7 neutral site games. Take the under here.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* This game will be played in the Georgia Dome. A massive dome like this is generally not conducive to shooters. Brady Heslip single-handedly killed my Colorado/Baylor under last week. I have a feeling Xavier's Mark Lyons will be in his face all night in this one. Both teams are very good on defense, and the pace of these games tends to slow down a bit as they get more and more important. I projected this line at 138 or 139 points. Look for Baylor's athletic frontcourt to keep Xavier out of the paint in this one. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Phoenix Suns aren't the same team they used to be. It's not that the Suns are a bad team now, but they really just can't run the way they used to. Steve Nash and Grant Hill have both aged quite a bit, and the Suns rely more on a half court game. Indiana is a solid defensive team, especially at home. The Pacers allow just 91.2 points per game at home. The Suns average just 93.3 per game on the road. The under is 8-0 so far this year when a team is on the second game of a back-to-back-to-back scheduling spot. Indiana is in that spot today. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Tempo Total* The Milwaukee Bucks are going to be pushing the tempo like no other team now. Scott Skiles' team has been pushing it pretty well all year, but they really have the backcourt to push the tempo now that they added Monta Ellis. The over is 7-1 in the Bucks last 8 games. Their game last night went under, but that was because Boston contested their shots and hurt their shooting percentage. Charlotte won't play good defense here, and I think the Bobcats will run with the Bucks. Take the over in this one.

*3 Star Tournament Top Total* Marquette is a team I have liked to play the 'over' with all season. The Golden Eagles are great in transition and they don't waste many possessions. Florida can shoot it extremely well from deep, and Billy Donovan's team isn't likely to try to slow the game down very much here. I projected this total at 150 points. Both backcourts will get their points here, and Crowder should have a big game against a thin Gators frontcourt. The over is 15-3 in the Gators last 18 non-conference games. The over is 7-1 in Marquette's last 8 games as the favorite. Take the over here.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Milwaukee Bucks may become the single fastest paced team in the NBA now. Scott Skiles already had his team pushing the tempo as much as possible, then they added Monta Ellis who can run and fill it up in a hurry. Boston is actually playing a little quicker than they have in the past, and I think this pace will be fast. Milwaukee is averaging 112 points per game in their last five games. The over is 23-7 in the Bucks last 30 games. I would play this over all the way up to 202 points. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Golden State Warriors got rid of Monta Ellis, and now Stephen Curry is out of the lineup with an injury. Mark Jackson's team is short-handed right now, and Jackson wants them to slow the tempo down and work hard on the defensive end. Houston has been a solid 'under' team at home this year. I expect the tempo here to be slower than most are projecting. Kevin Martin missing is big for the Rockets. Neither team has their top offensive players. Look for this one to finish under the posted total.

*3 Star Louisville/Michigan State Total Takedown* This is a matchup of two of the best coaches in the game right now. I believe Tom Izzo is the best coach in the nation. Rick Pitino does a great job getting the most out of his team as well. Louisville will use the full court press here, and Michigan State does turn it over more than usual this year so the Cardinals could get some easy baskets. Tom Izzo is saying in the press this week that he wants the Spartans to run with the Cardinals. I think the pace here will be enough to push this one over a very low total. Take the over here.

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Total Domination* Washington State and Oregon State met three times during the regular season. Two of the three meetings easily went over this posted total. The only game that didn't was in the PAC 12 Tournament at Staples Center. Oregon State's guards are terrific at pushing the pace, especially on their home floor. Washington State will have to score points if they are going to hang around in this game. The over is 4-0 in Oregon State's last 4 home games. The over is 5-2 in Washington State's last 7 road games. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Total Value* Since Chauncey Billups went down the Los Angeles Clippers offense has taken a hit. The Clippers are averaging just 90.8 points per game in their last five contests. At the same time, the Clippers have picked up their defensive intensity. They are allowing just 89.8 points per game in their last five. The Clippers are in the middle game of a back-to-back-to-back scheduling spot. The middle game of this spot has seen 21 unders and just 7 overs so far this season. Look for a slower pace and an under here.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The New York Knicks aren't the same team they were under Mike D'Antoni. Coach Mike Woodson likes to get the half court game working rather than running the floor and pushing the tempo constantly. I think there is quite a bit of value on the under with the Knicks right now. The 76ers have been an under machine at home. The under is 23-8 in their last 31 home games. In addition, the under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings at Philly between these two teams. Look for a slower game than most expect. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total* Throughout the smaller postseason tournaments the 'over' has been dominant for the most part, but Robert Morris and Fairfield have both stuck to their slower pace. Both teams rely on their strong defense to win them games. Fairfield has allowed 56 and 57 points in their two postseason games. Robert Morris has given up 60 and 51 points. The under is 5-0 in Robert Morris' last 5 non-conference games. The under is 5-1 in Fairfield's last 6 home games. Take the under in this one.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Milwaukee Bucks have sped up the tempo in a big way this year, and I think the acquisition of Monta Ellis will make this Bucks team one of the fastest in the NBA. A backcourt of Brandon Jennings and Ellis is certainly one that can push the tempo with the best of them. Ellis doesn't play much defense at all, and I think the Bucks will allow more points now. Portland's defense has been horrendous of late. They are giving up 102.4 per game in their last 5. Milwaukee is scoring 112.8 per game in their last five. The over is 7-0 in the Bucks last 7 road games. The over is 5-0 in the Blazers last 5 as a home favorite of 5 points or less. The over is also 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two. Take the over here.

*3 Star NBA Bookie BEATDOWN* The Sacramento Kings have made a concerted effort to push the pace in a big way lately. The Kings have scored 112, 115, and 120 points in their last three games. They have also given up 107.8 points per game in their last five contests. These teams have met twice this year, with the final scores being 113-96 and 128-95. The Grizzlies have tons of offensive weapons with Gay, Randolph, Gasol, Conley, etc. I think both teams will top the 100 point mark in this one. Take the over here.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Knockout* Oregon has pushing the pace like no other in this postseason tournament. The score in their first two games has been 96-76 and 108-97. While I don't think this game will be that high, we know the Washington Huskies are a team that likes to push the tempo as well. The two regular season meetings finished below the posted total, but these smaller postseason tournaments have been very high scoring this year. Expect both teams to be running and gunning here. I projected this at 158. Take the over.

*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Phoenix Suns play at a much slower pace than they have in previous years. They actually play a little bit of defense as well. The Heat have really picked up the defense of late, especially on their home floor. It is the Heat's defense that makes them the elite team that they are right now. The under is 13-3 in the Heat's last 16 home games. The under is 13-5 in the Suns last 18 road games. Miami should control this game and slow down the Suns offense. I projected this one at 196. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* Oakland is one of my favorite teams to bet an 'over' with. The Golden Grizzlies push the tempo in a big way and they play almost no defense. The over is 21-6 in their last 27 non-conference games. The over is also 46-21-1 in their last 68 games overall. Rice isn't a team that slows down the tempo, and the Owls have plenty of guys who can hit shots from long range. This is a game where tons of threes should be falling for both teams. I projected this one at 163. Take the over in this game.

*3 Star ESPN 2 Late Night Total Domination* Illinois State excels from long range and so does Stanford. Expect both teams to bury lots of threes in this one. Both teams have been playing at a much quicker pace than normal over their last few games. The total has reached at least 140 in Stanford's last 4 games. The over is 20-6 in Illinois State's last 26 road games. The over is 4-0 in Stanford's last 4 games overall. I projected this one at 138 or 139. Look for both teams to shoot well. A close game should lead to plenty of free throws as well. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* TCU has been one of my favorite 'over' teams all season. The Horned Frogs used to be a team that slowed down the tempo, but this year they are running and gunning. TCU can bury three's, and they don't guard well at all. Oregon State has great guards that push the tempo in a big way. The over is 5-0 in TCU's last 5 games. The over is 10-2 in Oregon State's last 12 home games. This is a high number, but I think these teams will get to 165 or so here. Expect a quick pace. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* Minnesota prefers to play at a slow pace, and so does Miami. Miami is without leading scorer Durand Scott, and that should slow them down even more. They beat Valpo 66-50 in a slow halfcourt battle last time out. Both of these teams play solid defense. I projected this line at 127 points. Miami allows just 64.6 points per game at home. Minnesota averages only 63.3 points per game on the road. Don't expect a pretty game of basketball here. I think the value is with the under on this one.

*3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* Lehigh shocked the world by taking down the Duke Blue Devils on Friday night. C.J. McCollum has been a star all year, and I see no reason to believe that he'll slack off in this game. Tu Holloway is also terrific for Xavier, and I think we'll have some great guard play in this game. Both teams are more comfortable playing at a quick pace, which should mean there are plenty of shots taken in this game. The over is 13-6 in Xavier's last 19 NCAA Tournament games. Take the over in this one.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals Takedown* USF has been a terrific 'under' team for me. The Bulls play defense as well as anyone in the nation, and they are poor offensively. Ohio shouldn't be able to force the tempo in this one against a Bulls squad that is insistent on slowing the game down. The under is 23-7 in the Bulls last 30 games. The under is 4-1 in Ohio's last 5 games. Look for this to turn into a defensive game like just about every game involving USF does. USF hasn't allowed more than 58 points in any of their last 12 games. Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Orlando Magic and the Miami Heat have had some great battles with each other over the past couple years. Miami is at their best when they are playing great defense. They started playing much better defense last game against the Sixers, and I think they'll continue it in this one. Orlando isn't a team that gets out in transition very often. The under is 36-15-1 in the Magic's last 52 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in the Heat's last 4 home games. Take the under in this one.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Value* Norfolk State pulled off the unthinkable upset on Friday over Missouri. The Spartans like to push the pace and I don't see them stalling in this game. Florida is more than happy to run and use their terrific guards to get to the hoop or kick it out for an open three. The Gators offense is terrific, and I see them putting up a big number here. Norfolk State should actually have the advantage on the inside, and O'Quinn should have another big day for them. The over is 15-2 in Florida's last 17 non-conference games. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* This game won't be getting any coverage Sunday, but I think that is exactly what has gotten us so much value here. Fairfield's best player Derek Needham will miss this game with an injury. The first two games between these teams finished at 104 and 114. I simply don't understand why this line would be set at 132 when one of Fairfield's best offensive players will now be missing for this game. The under is 13-3-1 in Manhattan's last 17 Sunday games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Bucknell Bison and the Nevada Wolfpack both love to slow the game down and use their strong defense to win games. I see no reason to expect either team to try to turn this into a transition oriented game. Bucknell held Arizona to just 54 points in their first postseason game. Nevada is a very good defensive team on their home floor. I projected this line at 127 points. Look for this one to stay under the posted total.

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* This game will tip off at 11 am eastern time. Games that start that early tend to be lower scoring in general. Both of these teams are built around defense and ball control, and I don't see either team looking to push the pace here. Drexel is focused and looking to send a message, and they do that with their defense. I projected this line at 116 points. Look for a half court game where both defenses are strong. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Under Radar Total* Idaho and Utah State will meet for the third time this season on Saturday. Both of these teams are strong on the defensive end. Neither team likes to get out in transition much at all. The first two meetings between these teams in the regular season finished at 111 points and 117 points. The under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. I projected this line at 129 points. The value here is too much to pass up for me. I like the under in this matchup of familiar foes.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* The Colorado Buffaloes slowed down the UNLV Runnin' Rebels nicely on Thursday night. Colorado's half court defense is quite impressive. Andre Roberson is a great defensive player and I think he can slow down Perry Jones III and Quincy Acy on the inside. On the other end, Colorado is very inconsistent on offense. The Buffaloes have gone through several long scoreless droughts in their past few games. Baylor is long and athletic on defense. The under is 19-7 in Colorado's last 26 games. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* Both Georgia State and Mercer have won with defense this year. Neither team likes to push the pace and I expect a half court battle in this one. I projected this one at just 120 points. This should be a game with plenty of contested tough shots and a slow pace. The under is 45-20-1 in Georgia State's last 66 games. The under is 10-0-1 in Mercer's last 11 games at home. Both defenses should rule in this one. I expect a well-played close game all the way. Take the under.

*3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* Oakland is a team that can run and gun with the best of them. The Golden Grizzlies play almost no defense though, and I expect Buffalo to score at will here. Buffalo has a strong post presence that Oakland simply cannot match. Both teams like to run, and Buffalo tends to really get out in transition in non-conference games. I projected this one at 168 points. The over is 7-1 in Buffalo's last 8 games. The over is 46-20-1 in Oakland's last 67 games overall. Take the over in this one.

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night Bailout Total* Detroit is a very talented team out of the Horizon League. Butler has showed that the Horizon League is better than most realize the last couple years. Detroit loves to push the pace and try to get to the rim. Kansas is a team that would rather play at a quick pace. Tyshawn Taylor and Ray McCallum Jr. should both get their points in this one. I projected this line at 147 points. Look for the pace to be quick here, and both teams should get to the free throw line quite a bit. Take the over.

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Domination* I have been extremely impressed with USF's defense over the last half of the year. Stan Heath's team is extremely motivated on the defensive end, and they are very tough to beat. USF hasn't allowed more than 57 points in their last 11 games. In fact, none of those 11 games finished over this posted total. The under is 22-7 in USF's last 29 games. I projected this line at 117 points. Temple is a very good defensive team as well, and I don't see either offense getting much going here. Take the under.

*5 Star NCAA BB Top Total* Long Island is a team that loves to run and gun. No matter who Long Island plays, they are going to push the pace. This team simply does not how to slow the tempo down. Tom Izzo's Spartans like to run as much as they can, but they don't get the opportunity too much in the Big Ten. They'll get their chance in a big way in this one. Long Island's defense is almost non-existent. North Carolina put up 102 points on Long Island in the NCAA Tournament last year. Michigan State likely won't score that many, but 90 or 95 isn't out of the question. Take the over in a big way here.

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* Purdue and St. Mary's are two teams that take care of the basketball very well. Don't expect to see a lot of easy buckets off turnovers in this one. Both coaches preach defense all the time. I expect to see a half court style of game here. Both teams do shoot the three-ball well, but a neutral floor like this usually hurts the shooting percentages quite a bit. I expect the pace here to be too slow for this one to hit unless the shooting percentages are extremely high. Take the under.