Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros start Mike Fiers here. Fiers was terrible at the start of the season, but he has been amazing of late. In Fiers' last three starts, he has thrown just over 20 innings, and he has given up only 10 hits during that span. In his last five starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less in each outing. 

What's behind Fiers improvement? He is getting more ground balls (giving up less homers obviously) and getting soft contact. His hard contact rate is only 27.9% compared to 35.3% a year ago. 

The A's offense is hitting only .246 against Fiers as a unit. Oakland strikes out a lot and Fiers strikes 7.73 batters per nine innings.

Sean Manaea is a young guy I'm very high on. Manaea has excellent stuff, and as long as he has his control I like his chances of slowing down Houston here. The Astros are hitting only .171 against him in a career 122 plate appearances. 

The under got a reverse line movement trigger at Pinnacle earlier today, and there has been some clear sharp support for the under at the key level of 9.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox offense has been really streaky so far this year. Boston has scored 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 10 games. The Red Sox are struggling to string together hits on a consistent basis. 

Jose Berrios has a magnificent curveball, and I think he can keep the Red Sox bats honest here if he stays in his current form. Berrios is giving up hard contact on only 22.8% of batted balls, and that's a tremendous figure. He hasn't given up more than 4 runs in a game this year, and he's allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his 8 starts.

Chris Sale has been the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball this year. The Twins have a good offense, but it isn't elite. Sale has a 2.85 ERA this year, but his xFIP is 2.63 and his FIP is only 1.97. If anything, he's been unlucky. 

The temperature won't be very hot at Fenway here, which means less carry for the ball.

The under is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0-1 in Berrios' last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 following a quality start in his last outing. A 30-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFL Red HOT CASH* There are a couple strong angles backing the under in this one. Early games in the CFL have stayed under the total consistently through the years. The public pushes up the numbers, and it has happened again here. This number is a full three points higher than it opened, and those 3 points could prove very valuable.

The under is 17-5 in Hamilton's last 22 games in the month of June. The under is 16-5 in Toronto's last 21 games played in the month of June. 

Here's a simple strong angle for you. In a team's first 6 games of the season in the CFL, the under is 51-31 (62%) when the total is 53 or higher. Tighten that up to a game where the home team is between -2 and +5 on the spread line, and the under is 18-4 in the last 22 contests.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been tremendous against right handed pitching this year. This Rays team has a ton of power, and they can rack up the homers in a hurry. 

Chris Tillman is throwing the ball as bad as any pitcher in the majors coming into this game. Tillman has allowed a minimum of 5 runs in each of his last 5 starts. His velocity is down and Tillman isn't fooling anyone right now. He has changed his arm slot around and it appears he may still be having shoulder problems.

Jake Odorizzi has an ERA of 3.78, but a FIP of 5.34 so far this year. He has a low BABIP of .238, which should regress to the mean. Odorizzi has a home run problem this year, and the Orioles are another team that can smash a bunch of homers. 

These are two of the five worst bullpens in the majors right now, and I expect scoring chances late here.

The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 vs. the AL East. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in Tillman's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 9-0 in the Rays last 9 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 11-0 in the Rays last 11 games played on turf. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in Odorizzi's last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 51-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I have to play the over here. Homer Bailey is making his first big league start after a major injury, and I don't think he'll pitch deep into the game. The Reds bullpen is gassed right now, and they have 5.47 FIP in the last two weeks. 

Joe Ross starts for the Nationals. He's really inconsistent and he usually doesn't pitch deep into the game either. The Nationals have a 5.34 FIP in the last two week.

These are definitely two of the worst bullpens in baseball, and they should be in the game for quite a few innings. 

The Reds offense has been underrated this year, and the Nationals offense has been the most consistent in the NL.

Paul Emmel is the umpire behind the plate. The over is 8-5 in his games this year. The over was 14-13 in his games last year. The over was 18-14 in his games in 2015. The over was 18-10 in his games behind the plate in 2014. Some impressive consistency to the over from him.

A 91 degree temperature at gametime is helpful here as well.

The over is 5-0 in the Reds last 5 vs. a righty. The over is 4-0 in the Nationals last 4 home games. The over is 7-0-1 in Ross' last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in Ross' last 4 starts following a quality start. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Montreal has an elite defense, and a really bad offense. Obviously, that is exactly what we want to see with an under. Montreal has been a noted slow starter in terms of scoring as well. The under is a whopping 20-3 in Montreal's last 23 games in the month of June. 

In the last 8 matchups between these two teams, only one of them has gone over the posted total while in regulation. 

A game played in June or July where the home team is favored by 5 to 12 points in the CFL- The under is an amazing 37-13 in the last 50 games that meet this criteria. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates battle on Thursday afternoon.

Chase Anderson has been really good of late for Milwaukee. Anderson is a streaky pitcher, and right now he is in the zone. Anderson has a 2.92 ERA and a 3.38 FIP. He has been getting a lot of pop ups of late, so hitters aren't squaring up on his pitches very often. 

Anderson is at his best at home, and during the daytime. Anderson has a 2.03 ERA at home this year (3.61 in his career). He has a 3.36 career ERA in day games, and this year that number is 2.68. He's made nine starts this year under a retractable roof being closed (Miller Park's roof will likely be closed due to hot temperatures and rain chances here), and in those 9 games he has a 1.73 ERA.

Ivan Nova pitches to contact, but I love the fact that he virtually never walks anyone. That generally helps him limit damage. 

Dan Bellino is the umpire here, and only one game he has called has gone over the total this year. In his career 55.5% of his games have stayed under. 

It's a get away day game and some of the better hitters might sit this one out.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Tyson Ross and Joe Biagini are the starters in this one Wednesday night in Texas.

Ross is a guy who walks a ton of batters, and that usually comes back to bite you in a park like this, especially against a good offense. Ross walked 5.30 batters per nine innings in four Triple A starts this year. He had a 7.71 ERA and 6.71 FIP in the minors. He pitched well in his first big league start, but I think he'll have a tough time against this deep Blue Jays lineup. He doesn't pitch deep in the game and the Rangers bullpen isn't good at all.

Biagini has had declining velocity in his last few starts, and he's been prone to blowups on occasion. Pitching in Texas in 90 degree heat and against a lineup that is very good against right handed pitching is a tough matchup for him.

Sam Holbrook is the umpire here, and over umpires don't come much better than Holbrook. The over has hit 55.6% of the time in his games behind home plate in his career.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves have a very good .272 batting average and a .339 OBP against lefties this year. Matt Moore isn't a good left handed pitcher. Moore gives up a ton of hard contact. How much? An amazing 41% of batted balls against him are hit hard. That's one of the three worst marks in the majors. No wonder this guy has an ERA above 6.

Julio Teheran has an ERA over 7 at home this year. Teheran has a 4.86 ERA, but his FIP is 5.67 and his xFIP is 5.43. Teheran's walk rate has doubled from last year. He's allowing nearly 2 home runs per every nine innings pitched. The Giants offense has been much better on the road than at home. 

Both of these bullpens rank among the ten worst in baseball. Rain is possible here, and if we do get rain it won't be a terrible thing to see a lot of the bullpens.

The over is 8-0-1 in Matt Moore's last 9 road starts. The over is 3-0-1 in the Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0-1 in Moore's last 7 starts following a Giants loss in the previous game. The over is 6-0 in Teheran's last 6 following a quality start in his last outing. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 with five days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts after the Braves score 5 runs or more. Paul Emmel is a great over umpire long term and the over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 behind the plate. A 42-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Gio Gonzalez isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Gonzalez doesn't quite have the same dominant curveball he once did, and his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are at the worst point they have been since his rookie season. The Marlins smash left handed pitching. Miami ranks in the top 5 in the majors in almost all categories against lefties. The Marlins have a solid .350 OBP as a team against Gio Gonzalez in his career.

Edinson Volquez had a real nice couple game stretch with the no hitter included, but this isn't a guy I trust at all. Volquez is giving up more hard contact this year, and his SIERA is 4.81. He'll be up against a Washington lineup that has been the most consistent lineup in the National League this year. 

Neither of these bullpens are any good. In the late innings, there should be plenty more chances to score. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals offense is really streaky, and they have been hot of late. I think the Cardinals are one of the best offenses in the NL, and I expect them to keep hitting the ball well. 

Jeremy Hellickson has been awful this year. Hellickson is striking out only 3.97 batters per nine innings. That's awful. He has an xFIP of 6.09 and he has been in terrible form of late. St. Louis should get to him and then the Phillies terrible bullpen is in.

Mike Leake started the season hot, but he's been hit hard of late. Leake has allowed 18 runs in his last 4 starts.

The wind will be blowing out at 10 mph with a temperature of 80 at the start of this game. Those are certainly favorable conditions. 

The over is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 2-0-2 in Hellickson's last 4 home starts. A 22-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Robbie Ray has started six games on the road this year. He has allowed a grand total of four runs in those six road starts. Ray has thrown a shutout in his last three straight road contests. He has allowed 4, 2, and 2 hits in those three starts. Simply put, Ray has been absolutely dominating on the road. Ray has an ERA almost 2 full runs lower on the road in his career than at home, so his outperformance on the road is nothing new.

Ray will be up against a bad offense in the Philadelphia Phillies in this one. Philadelphia has a terrible .224 batting average against lefties on the season. 

Ben Lively has been solid in his first three starts for the Phillies. Lively was pretty good in the minors, and he suppresses home runs about as well as anyone.

The Diamondbacks offense has great numbers overall for the year, but they aren't even close to as good away from home. Arizona has only a .288 weighted on base average on the road. At home, their wOBA is .372.

The under is 31-14 in the DBacks last 45 road games. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* In his career as an umpire, Ron Kulpa has been one of the best under umpires in baseball. Kulpa has seen 57.5% of games stay under the posted total when he is behind home plate. 

Jacob Degrom has pitched into some bad luck this year. I'm confident he'll have a good year again by the time the season is through. His strikeout rate is actually up this year, but he's been victimized by bad batted ball luck. 

Degrom has excelled in two areas in his career. He has been great at home. Degrom has a 2.14 ERA at Citi Field. Also, Degrom has been superb when pitching in day games. Degrom has an amazing 1.78 ERA in 31 starts during the daytime in his career.

Joe Ross is inconsistent, but he has good stuff. Kulpa should help him quite a bit, and I see this Mets offense as a little overvalued right now.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The White Sox have been great at making lefties work hard, and they've been able to string together a lot of big innings against lefties (something they rarely do against righties). 

J.A. Happ has been inconsistent in his first few starts back from an injury. He'll be tested by the White Sox here.

James Shields is a guy I'm really low on. Shields is way past his prime. He doesn't have the control he did in the past. Shields isn't getting swings at pitches outside the zone like he did in the past either. He is coming off a shoulder injury and gets thrown into the fire against a good Blue Jays lineup.

Mark Wegner is a good over umpire. He's consistent among the bottom 10 umpires in the majors in percentage of pitches called a strike. 

I think both teams put up several runs here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Adam Wainwright isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Wainwright has a swinging strike rate of only 7.9%. He has a SIERA of almost 5. Wainwright has been able to be good at home, but his road ERA this year is a miserable 7.28.

Wade Miley has finally come back down to earth hard of late. Miley is having major control problems this year, and he's been wild both inside and outside of the zone. That has led to increased hard contact and some major problems in general for Miley. 

The weather will be a big help here. It is expected to be 85 degrees with 12-14 mph winds blowing out during this game. 

The Orioles bullpen is one of my lowest ranked bullpens in the majors without Zach Britton. They have some long guys who are simply overmatched right now. Miley isn't likely to stay in the game long. The Cardinals offense is much deeper than the average NL offense, and that helps a lot in an interleague game.

The over is 7-0 in the Cardinals last 7 interleague games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in Wainwright's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game. The over is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 interleague home games. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A combined 41-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The over has been on a big run in Oakland games of late, and I think that is creating some nice value for us on the under here. The A's are a team that strikes out a bunch. Luis Severino is averaging 10.04 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Severino hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of his last five starts. With young pitchers, recent form matters quite a bit to me. 

Sean Manaea is a guy I like quite a bit. Manaea is good at getting guys to chase bad pitches. He has excellent movement on all of his stuff.

The Yankees are first in the majors in wOBA against righties, but they are only 13th against lefties, and Manea is a good lefty. 

This is clearly still a park that is pitcher-friendly as well.

I'll take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Totals Trends SMASHER* The Chicago White Sox consistently rank among the worst teams in the majors against right handed pitching. The White Sox strike out at a high rate, and their hard contact rate is one of the worst in the majors against righties. 

Joe Biagini has impressed me a lot this year. Biagini has a 3.38 ERA and a 2.83 FIP. He is walking only 1.93 batters per nine innings, so his control is excellent. He should be able to avoid big innings against this weak White Sox lineup.

Jose Quintana has been subpar this year, but he has superb numbers in Toronto in his career, and Quintana is a guy who I believe will improve from now through the end of the year. Quintana has allowed a grant total of zero runs in his last 19 and 2/3 innings pitched in Toronto. He has 7 walks and 24 strikeouts in that span. 

The White Sox bullpen is slightly above average and the Blue Jays bullpen has been excellent in the past month (top six in the majors). 

The under is 23-4-1 in Quintana's last 28 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. Toronto. The under is 4-0 in Biagini's last 4 starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Justin Verlander hasn't been the same pitcher this year. Verlander has a 4.68 ERA and a 4.92 SIERA. Verlander is giving up way more hard contact this year (38% vs. only 28% last year). He no longer suppresses home runs as he did in the past. 

Tampa Bay ranks fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rays are third in the majors with 103 homers on the year. 

Alex Cobb is giving up a bunch of hard contact as well (38.3%) and the Tigers offense is better than they have shown so far this year. Miguel Cabrera is way better than his numbers would suggest, and I think the Tigers offense is going to regress to the mean by scoring a lot of runs in the coming weeks. 

These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball. Both are clearly in the bottom five in baseball. 

The over is 7-0 in the Rays last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 7-0 in Cobb's last 7 during game one of a series. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. The over is 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 26-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chris Tillman is an absolute mess right now. It seems very likely that Tillman is still injured. 

Tillman has lost 1.6 miles per hour off his fastball from last year. He is throwing a fastball on only 43% of pitches vs. 56% of pitches last year (injury?). Most interesting to me is Tillman's vertical release point changes from last year. Tillman is dropping down his arm significantly, and it isn't working at all. The most common reason for dropping your arm angle is a shoulder injury, and Tillman is coming off a shoulder injury.

David Holmberg isn't a guy I trust at all. Holmberg has never been all that good in the minors, and he is too wild. The Orioles have plenty of pop in their bats and I think they'll put up several on him here.

Both bullpens are no better than mediocre in the past month. The temperature for this one is expected to be 91 degrees with winds out at about 10 mph for this game. The ball should carry really well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* First things first, the weather here is a big reason why I like this play. The temperature is expected to be 84 degrees with the wind blowing out to center at 16 mph. Target Field has seen 47 overs and 32 unders in the last 79 games when the wind is blowing out at least 8 mph. 

Ariel Miranda has been pretty good at home, but on the road he has been a mess. He has a 5.68 ERA on the road this year. Miranda is a guy who gives up a lot of fly balls and the Twins have plenty of guys who can take him deep.

Jose Berrios will be up against a red hot Mariners lineup here. Seattle benefits a lot from Haniger being back in the lineup. Berrios has a BABIP against of only .231 and he's stranding 83% of runners on base. Those are numbers that suggest regression is coming.  The Twins bullpen is arguably the worst in baseball right now, and I don't expect Berrios to go any more than 6 innings here.

This has been a high scoring series. I think we see another high scoring affair.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros offense is one of the best in the league. Houston is capable of putting up a big number at any time. 

Andrew Cashner has a 5.85 SIERA this year. Cashner still has more walks than strikeouts on the year. Anytime you go this far into the season and have more walks than strikeouts, you aren't very good. Cashner's velocity is the lowest it has been at any point in his career.

Francis Martes starts here for the Astros. Martes hasn't proven anything at any level above Double A. Martes walked nearly 8 batters per every nine innings in Triple A this year. He had a 5.29 ERA and a 5.95 FIP. I don't expect a guy like that to come up and have success quickly in the majors.

Manny Gonzalez is the umpire here and he's one of the best over umpires in the business. The over is 35-15-1 in his last 51 games behind the plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ron Kulpa has been an under machine in his career as an umpire. The under is a whopping 218-160 in his career. That's 58% of games finishing under the posted total when he's behind the dish. That's way too big of a number to ignore.

Whenever Kulpa is behind the dish, if I lean to the under at all, I go ahead and take the under. Jake Odorizzi has some very good career numbers against Toronto's hitters. Francisco Liriano has looked better to me in his last couple starts after coming back from an injury.

The Rays offense has been terrible against lefties this year. The Blue Jays bullpen has quietly been one of the best in baseball in the last month or so.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sun and Liberty square off tonight. Both of these teams are coming off very high scoring games. The Sun's last game went 16.5 points over the total and the Liberty's last game went 20.5 points over the posted total.

In the WNBA in the past, betting the under when both teams are off games that soared over the total has been a great way to look. 

-When the total is 146.5 or higher, and the road team is coming off a game 7 points or more above the total and the home team is coming off a game 11 points or more over the total, the under is 115-72 (61.5%) in the next game. 

-If you tighten it up to totals of 160 or higher, the under is 65% in these spots.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There is a strong system backing the under in this one. Seattle has been an over machine of late and that is starting to inflate their numbers. 

Here's a look at the system. When both the home and road teams went over the total by at least 3.5 points in their last game and the posted total for the current game is 161 or higher, the under is a whopping 67-35 (65.7% wins) in the last 102 plays. 

If you tighten the system and say the home team had to have a game go 10 points or more over the total (Seattle's did last game), the under is 50-23 (68.5%).

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NBA Finals CRUSHER* The Cleveland Cavaliers averaged a ridiculous 1.361 points per possession in their win in game four. That is the worst defensive efficiency number Golden State has posted all year. 

Cleveland's record setting scoring means this total has been moved up by several points. While I don't love playing unders in the matchup between these two teams, this number is too high for me to pass it up. 

The pace has slowed down as the series has moved along here, and that generally happens as things tighten up and there is more importance on that game. Without record shooting numbers, it is hard to get a total score of 232 points. 

The regular season meetings between these two finished at 217. This is the highest total in NBA finals history. I'll look for a high scoring game, but not this high. The defenses improve here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under on Indians/White Sox.*

I am currently traveling and unable provide a full writeup as I normally do. This selection has been researched and analyzed as all of my plays are. Full writeups will be back in a few days. Thanks for understanding and good luck on this selection and all of your plays today.

Start the week off right with a winner! Guaranteed! 

*4 Star Play Under on A's/Rays under in 2nd game of Doubleheader*

This is a doubleheader and in many of these we see some of the top players sit. With weaker lineups and one of the top under umpires in the game, Doug Eddings behind the plate, this is a good value on the under.

Take note that this play is on game two with Manaea and Andriese as the starters

*3 Star Red Sox/Yankees Total* The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox square off on Thursday night. The Yankees start Michael Pineda here and the Red Sox start David Price. 

Both of these pitchers are somewhat inconsistent, but they have huge strikeout potential. They both have a tendency to give up more home runs than normal, but with cool temperatures and winds blowing in at about 8 to 10 mph at gametime.

In the past five years, the under has cashed at a 59% clip at Yankee Stadium with a temperature of 70 degrees or lower and wind in of 5 mph or more.

Vic Carapazza is one of the best under umpires in baseball, and he's behind the plate here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Milwaukee Brewers host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night. Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson and San Francisco's Ty Blach have both pitched well in recent outings, but long term looks at their stats suggest these guys are no better than mediocre.

Tom Woodring is the umpire here, and he is a very good over umpire. He'll pinch the zone and make things more difficult on the starters here.

The over is 19-10-3 in the Giants road games so far this year. The over is 21-12 in the Brewers 33 home games this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike in the last five years. Eddings has been on an over run of late, but this guy is unquestionably a good under umpire. In fact, he is one of the best. Anytime you are getting 2% or more of a difference in called strikes from the average umpire, this is a good under umpire.

David Price wasn't extremely sharp in his first start back, but he wasn't bad either. A key thing I noticed was his velocity was up a good amount from last year. Price has a 2.25 ERA in three starts with Eddings behind home plate. He also has a solid 3.14 ERA in 10 career starts in Baltimore.

Dylan Bundy has changed the way he is pitching this year. Bundy has been getting good results out of his slider. The Red Sox lineup has been really inconsistent this year, and they are without Dustin Pedroia right now.

The wind is set to be blowing in at about 6 mph at gametime for this one. With the wind blowing in and a total of 7.5 or higher, the under is a whopping 126-70 in the last 196 games at Camden Yards.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Great American Ballpark has the nickname "Great American Smallpark." While the park doesn't always play extremely small, when the weather heats up, the park is definitely very tough on pitchers.

In the past ten years, when the temperature is 77 degrees or warmer during a game played in Cincinnati, the over is 193-141 (57.7%). 

R.A. Dickey has been awful this year. He appears to have stayed around too long in the majors. He isn't fooling anyone right now, and his advanced metrics don't show many signs of things getting better. 

Scott Feldman is giving up a lot of line drives, and I suspect he'll give up a lot of homers in the warm weather in Cincinnati this summer. 

The Braves have some red hot hitters in their lineup, and the Braves bullpen is bad. The Reds have been better than expected on offense, and the Reds bullpen has fallen off pretty dramatically in recent weeks.

Mark Wegner is one of the better over umpires in baseball and he's behind the plate here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Indians are hitting only .236 against lefties so far this year. The Indians are better than that average against lefties, but they have been consistently better against right handed pitching than lefties over the last few years. 

Sean Manaea has some excellent stuff, and I expect him to have a lot of success in the majors. Manaea has improved his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA from last year. A horrible strand rate of just 59% means he is due for some positive regression as far as his ERA. Manaea is a young pitcher who has multiple go to swing and miss pitches. His swinging strikes rate is an awesome 13.6%. That's a guy with a high upside. His one problem has been his control, but he'll be helped by a bigger strike zone than normal with Mark Ripperger behind home plate for this one. 

Mike Clevinger has developed into a better pitcher than many people expected him to be. Clevinger should have enough weapons to slow down this poor Oakland offense. He has been getting batters to swing at more bad balls this year, and that has brought his swinging strike rate up. 

Ripperger is a very good under umpire, and the weather should be good for an under here. The forecast calls for 65 degrees and winds in from center field at about 10 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather and the home plate umpire are two major reasons I'm taking the over in this game. The wind is blowing out to left center field in this game at about 12 mph. The home plate umpire is Sam Holbrook. You won't find a better over umpire than Holbrook.

Holbrook has called the lowest percentage of pitches a strike of any umpire so far this year. The over has hit in 56.3% of games called by Holbrook in his career. 

Mike Fiers has been awful this year. Fiers has an ERA over 6 on the road this year (it was 4.99 last year too). He has allowed a mind boggling 11 home runs in 24 innings on the road this year. The Twins have enough power with Holbrook squeezing the zone and the wind blowing out to knock a couple out here.

Jose Berrios is looking very good of late, but Houston's offense is as hot as anyone in baseball. The Twins bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, and even if Berrios pitches well the Astros are liable to torch the bullpen like they did yesterday.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Over* These bullpens both rank in the five worst bullpens in baseball. Tampa Bay's SIERA is actually the single worst of any team. Tampa Bay has spent up their bullpen the last couple nights and they had to call up a guy from the minors to be an extra reliever for this game. 

Matt Andriese is a serviceable pitcher, but this Rangers lineup is very good. Adrian Beltre is back in the lineup and that's a big key. Andriese isn't likely to pitch very deep into the game.

I've never been a fan of Nick Martinez. He may be slightly improved this year, but he is still giving up long balls at a high rate. This Tampa Bay team is second in the majors in home runs. They should give him trouble here.

Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire, and he's an excellent over umpire. 

The weather is heating up in Texas and the ball will be flying better in this park now. 

The over is 24-7-1 in Texas' last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Manny Gonzalez is one of the very best over umpires in the game. The over is 6-1 in his 7 games behind the plate this year. The over is 84-64 (57% wins) in his career.

Zach Davies is walking too many guys this year, and he is giving up more fly balls and home runs. Davies isn't a bad pitcher, but I do think this Mets offense that has been hot will put several across here.

Tyler Pill starts for the Mets here. Pill is making his big league starting debut. Pill had a 7.60 ERA two years ago in Triple A and a 5.60 ERA last year in Triple A. In five starts this year, he was successful there, but that was due to multiple fortunate factors. I don't think he is likely to be very good for the Mets in general, and this Brewers lineup has a lot of dangerous bats.

The wind is blowing out at 8 mph and at Citi Field all time with the wind blowing out 8 mph or more the over is hitting at a 57% clip.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total Value* Bill Miller has been better to me when betting unders than any other umpire in the majors. More than 65% are strikes in games Miller umpires, which is 2% higher than the average umpire. That 2% doesn't sound like much, but trust me that makes a big difference. Miller is a great under umpire.

Chris Tillman has pretty good numbers in his career against the Yankees. He has only allowed one home run against this lineup in his career. Jacoby Ellsbury is out of the lineup and that hurts the Yankees some.

Luis Severino has really impressed me this year. He has taken the next step so far this year. Severino gave up 4 runs at Baltimore earlier this year, but that was due to poor batted ball luck. He has been great on the road overall this year.

The under is 20-8 in Tillman's last 28 home starts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Arizona Diamondbacks are hitting .273 against right handed pitching this year. They are scoring 5.52 runs per game against right handed pitching. Trevor Williams is worse than the average right handed pitcher right now. Williams has a 5.93 ERA and a 4.89 FIP on the year thus far. He doesn't have good command of many of his pitches, and that leads to a lot of mistakes.

Randall Delgado starts for the Diamondbacks. He's been tried several times as a starter, and it never really worked out. Because they are short on starters with Shelby Miller out with an injury, the DBacks turned to Delgado again. I don't see it working out this time around either. Delgado has a history of wildness in a starting role.

The Pirates offense should improve with Polanco back and Adam Frazier swinging a red hot bat. Andrew McCutchen isn't what he used to be, but he is better than his current numbers suggest.

The over is 5-0-1 in the Pirates last 6. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. The over is 5-0-1 in the Pirates last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in Delgado's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. An 18-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Many people know that the Washington Nationals are excellent against left handed pitching. Washington is first in wOBA against lefties. Who is second? The Chicago White Sox. 

The White Sox have a .365 wOBA, which is almost equal to Washington's .368. The White Sox have a .288 batting average against lefties and are averaging 5.88 runs per nine innings off lefties.

The Boston Red Sox stunned me by getting shut out by Christian Bergman yesterday, but this is a good offense. Boston has a .350 OBP vs. lefties and they are averaging 4.54 runs per nine innings off them.

David Price was rocked in Triple A in his rehab starts. Price was very inconsistent last year. He is on a pitch count here as well.

David Holmberg starts for the White Sox, and he isn't big league material as a starter.

The wind is blowing out at 15-20 mph during this one. This has led to better than 55% overs in the past 10 years.

Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* Clayton Kershaw takes the mound against Jon Lester in a terrific pitching matchup to close this series of two of the best teams in the National League. 

Blindly betting the under has been a good move when Kershaw is on the mound. The under is 80-58 in Kershaw's 138 starts in the majors. That's a 58% win rate for the under. 

Kershaw is baseball's best pitcher, and his consistency is what impresses me the most. He has a 2.18 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Cubs. How has Kershaw done with home plate umpire Dan Iassogna behind the dish? Kershaw has a dazzling 1.17 ERA in five career starts with Iassogna calling the balls and strikes.

Jon Lester is a really good lefty as well. As good as the Dodgers offense is against right handed pitching, the Dodgers struggle against lefties. The Dodgers are hitting .262 against righties and .238 against lefties this year. Lester has a 1.76 ERA in two starts with Iassogna. Lester also has great splits when pitching during the day. At night his ERA is 3.59 and during the day it is 3.12. 

These are two excellent bullpens which make me feel better about playing a low under.

Both pitchers are at their best when facing a good team. The under is 28-12-1 in Lester's last 41 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 35-14-2 in Kershaw's last 51 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Kershaw's last 5 home starts vs. the Cubs.

Take the under big. 

Top Total of the Week 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Danny Salazar is much better than he has shown so far this year. Salazar goes up against a KC offense that is one of the five worst in baseball here, and I see this as a good chance for him to get back on track. 

Jason Vargas has been excellent this year. Vargas had one really bad start a couple outings ago, but overall he has been very solid. The Indians rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in almost all major statistical categories against left handed pitching. 

A key angle here is the weather as well. The wind will be blowing in from center field for this one. Progessive Field is one where the weather makes a big difference. 

Here's a great statistic to back this up. With the wind blowing in at least 6 mph (projected to be 10 mph here), and a total of at least 8, the under is 70-25 in the last 95 games played at Progressive Field. 

The under is 14-2 in Vargas' last 16 starts.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Cavs/Celtics NBA Red Hot CASH* The Cleveland Cavs head to Boston looking to closeout the Boston Celtics. The Cavs have dominated this series for the most part, but you have to respect the way Boston has fought very hard the last couple games.

Boston completely changed the way they play when Isaiah Thomas went down with an injury. The Celtics can't try to play quickly without their main offensive guy. Boston has decided to post up Al Horford a lot and try to score in the post or pass it out of the post to get open 3's. The post ups have slowed the tempo of these games down a lot. 

The average tempo in games one and two was 95 possessions per game. In games 3 and 4, the pace was 90.1 possessions per game. That kind of tempo change is drastic, and it makes a posted total of 216 awfully high.

The Cavs are capable of shooting a great percentage from the floor, but they shot nearly 60% from the floor last game and the game still went under the total. The Cavs are averaging 1.20 points per possession and the Celtics are averaging 1.12 points per possession in the last two games. Those are very high efficiency rates on offense. Those are more likely to drop than go up.

Here's a system that backs this under play:

-The spread is between home team -3.5 and +12

-The home teams win percentage is 64% or lower

-The home team in this game lost the previous game by 5 points or more

-The total is 193.5 or higher

-The percentage of bets on the under is 42% or lower

In this situation, the under is a very impressive 41-15 in the last 56 (73.2%). This game fits this situation. 

Take the under.

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jose Berrios has been one of the most highly touted pitching prospects in baseball the last few years. Berrios struggled in his first couple trips to the big leagues, but he has been great this year in a two game sample size.

Berrios had a 1.13 ERA in six starts in Triple A for the Twins this year. He has a 0.59 ERA in two starts in the big leagues so far this year. Improved control has been the biggest key for Berrios.

Chris Tillman isn't a special pitcher, but he isn't bad either. He has a home ERA of 4.01 in his career at Baltimore. The Twins are hitting only .259 off of him in his career. 

The key here is the situation. It's a get away day game with a start of 12:35 pm EST. These are the games where a key player or two usually sits out for some rest. The wind is scheduled to be blowing in from right field here as well at about 10 mph.

At Baltimore, with the wind blowing in the under has been a great play in the past. The under is 126-70 (64.2%) with the wind blowing in at Baltimore. 

Day game unders with the wind blowing in and the total of at least 8.5 are hitting 55.5% in the last 8 years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It is really rare to see a Clayton Kershaw game at Dodger Stadium with a total of 7. Kershaw and the Dodgers are big favorites once again here. The likelihood of the Dodgers batting only 8 times has to be accounted for here. Kershaw is the most dominant pitcher in the game, and the Cardinals aren't very good against lefties. St. Louis ranks 20th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties.

Lance Lynn has pitched well against the Dodgers in his career. The under is 6-1 in Lynn's last 7 starts against the Dodgers. The under is 5-1 in his six starts at Dodger Stadium.

Overall, the under is an impressive 79-58 in Kershaw's 137 home starts in his career. That's a 57.7% winning percentage. 

When was the last time a Kershaw home start had a total of 7 runs? It was September 28, 2012 against the Rockies. 

Solid value here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez here. Rodriguez was a guy who there were very high expectations for a long time ago, and he struggled a bit in his early time in the majors. He is putting it together this year. Rodriguez hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last six starts. He has a FIP of 3.20 or lower in each of those starts. He is striking out 10.23 batters per nine innings, which is easily the best of his career.

Andrew Triggs has allowed 2 runs or less in six of his eight starts this year. Triggs gets soft contact and uses a deceptive delivery to make things difficult on batters who don't see him on a regular basis.

Yonder Alonso is doubtful for this game for the A's, and he's been the best hitter on the team. The A's offense is 23rd in weighted on base average against lefties in the majors. 

Mike Muchlinski is the umpire here, and that is definitely good for the under. He's a solid under umpire overall. The under is 21-7 in his last 28 Sunday games behind the dish.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Matt Cain and Adam Wainwright are following similar paths in their careers. Both were excellent pitchers a few years ago, but things have changed in a big way. Interestingly, these both were guys who had great control a few years ago. Now, both of them have doubled their walk rate from about 5 years ago. They are getting less strikeouts and a lot more hard contact.

The Giants offense has been much better on the road than at home. The Giants are 14-7-2 to the over in their road games this year.

The Cardinals are excellent against right handed pitching, and they have a terrible defense that costs them a run or two a game many times. The over is 24-14 for the Cardinals this year. This is an offense that has finally gotten healthy and they should put up a lot of runs this year.

Tom Hallion is the umpire here and he ranks among the bottom 15 in the majors in the past five years in strikes called.

The over is 4-0 in Cain's last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the Cards last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0 in Wainwright's last 6 starts after the Cardinals score 2 runs or less. The over is 3-0 in Cain's last 4 starts vs. the Cardinals. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays meet on Saturday afternoon in Tampa Bay.

Masahiro Tanaka has allowed 16 runs in his last three outings. Tanaka has allowed 7 home runs in that three game span. He has an ERA more than half a run higher in his career in day games, and this is a day game. 

Matt Andriese is a serviceable pitcher, but he is up against an excellent Yankees lineup. The Yankees are hitting 2.78 and averaging 5.91 runs per game against right handed pitching.

The Rays are quietly hitting the cover off the ball lately. Tampa Bay ranks in the top five in the majors in homers. The Rays are averaging 5.01 runs per game off right handed pitching.

The Rays bullpen is one of the five worst in the majors. The Yankees bullpen isn't nearly as good without a healthy Aroldis Chapman.

The over is 7-0 in the Yankees last 7 vs. the AL East. The over is 6-0 in Tanaka's last 6 following a team loss in their last game. The over is 8-0 in the Rays last 8 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.35 or higher. A 35-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Playoff 100% System SMASHER* The Boston Celtics were trampled over in game one of this series. Boston has a great coach in Brad Stevens, and I think he'll make some key adjustments in game two to make them more competitive. Since Cleveland is a much more talented team than Boston, the Celtics are best served to slow the pace of the game. They did in game one. They just need to play a lot better defense than they did in game one. Look for more doubling of LeBron and better switching from the Celtics in this one.

The first game played to a pace of 94 possessions. That was the slowest paced game between these two teams all season. It got to 221 points (one point over this total) because the Cavs scored 1.27 points per possession. The Celtics scored a decent 1.073 points per possession as well.

It's hard not to like the under when teams are playing that slowly and need to shoot such a high percentage. The Cavs are very capable of torching the nets, but at this number I have to take the under. 

There's a specific system that backs. Here's the playoff system:

-The home team lost the previous game by more than 6 points. 

-The spread is anywhere from home team -3.5 to home team +6.5. 

-The total is 195.5 or higher

-The road team allows 44% shooting or higher

-The home team allows 45% shooting or higher

The under is a perfect 13-0 in this system. Why? My theory here is the home team shows pride after being beaten at home last game, and they play better defense as the oddsmakers adjust the total upward. The under then gets more value. The mediocre defensive numbers make sense because we know that in the long run mediocre or poor defenses get much better in the playoffs because there is a lot more effort exerted on that end of the floor.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Monday Game 7 Red HOT CASH* The Washington Wizards and Boston Celtics meet in a crucial Game 7 matchup on Monday night in Boston. The winner moves on to meet the Cavs. The loser goes home for the year. 

The later you get in a playoff series in the NBA, the slower the tempo generally is. When a team is on the brink of elimination, they typically slow the game down and play much better defense. 

I had the under in game six, which cashed in easily. I don't expect the shooting numbers to be as bad in game 7, and the number has been adjusted lower. Still, I see value on the under. Why? Look at the pace at which last game was played. The average pace in this series has been almost 99 possessions. Last game, the game was played to a tempo of just 93.58 possessions. That's a dramatic difference and at that kind of pace it takes some very good shooting or a bunch of free throws to get past 210 points. 

A couple angles of note-

1. In Game 6 and Game 7 of the NBA playoffs- when the spread is 7 points or less and the under is getting 51% or less of the overall bets, the under is a whopping 73-37 in the last 110. That's 66.4%. 

2. In that same scenario from above- when the Boston Celtics are involved in the game- the under has cashed 13 straight times.

The Celtics have been elimination game under machines. Because the number has been dropped by a lot I won't make it a big play this time, but I will once again take the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The under is a whopping 63-30-7 in the Rangers last 100 Sunday games. I hate putting too much stock in day of the week trends, but Sunday is consistently the best "under" day in the majors overall, so it is something to note. 

Both of these pitchers have excellent track records against their opponent on Sunday. Kendall Graveman has held Texas to a .210 average and .264 OBP in his career. A.J. Griffin has held Oakland to a .163 average and a .234 OBP in his career.

Jim Reynolds is behind the plate and he has changed his stripes a good deal in the past couple years. He was a big over umpire in the past, but he now ranks in the top 20% of umpires in most pitches called a strike. He shouldn't hurt the bet.

It's hot in Texas now, and the wind will be blowing in at about 10 mph. I ran a query on this situation and found that the under is 59-38 in Texas' last 97 home games with a temperature of 86 degrees or warmer and the wind blowing in. 

The under is 10-2 in the Rangers last 12 games after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies start Tyler Anderson here. Anderson was off to a slow start to the season, but I think his long term numbers at Coors Field suggest he is a pretty solid pitcher. He'll be up against a Dodgers lineup that is really bad against left handed pitching. The Dodgers offense is a little bit banged up right now and Adrian Gonzalez is a key part of their lineup missing. 

Alex Wood is throwing the ball better than he has at any point during his career. Wood has a great 2.73 ERA and an even more impressive 1.91 FIP on the season. His strikeouts per nine innings are above 11, and his swinging strike rate is the highest it has been at any point in his career. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. Miller has made me more money than any other umpire in the majors when it comes to betting on unders. He loves to ring people up, and his strikes called percentage is second of all the umpires in the past five years. 

With a high total and Miller behind the dish, I see this as a good value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Celtics/Wizards 100% System Play* The Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards square off in Washington DC on Friday night. The Wizards took care of business in the first two games at home in this series, and they'll have to do that again here if they are going to keep their season going.

Throughout this series so far, both offenses have been extremely efficient. The tempo has averaged 99 possessions. The Celtics are averaging 1.13 points per possession. The Wizards are averaging 1.10 points per possession. Both of these are well above even their regular season averages. Generally, in the playoffs the offensive efficiency numbers go down.

I think this is an opportunity to get good value on the under. The later in the series we get, the slower the tempo generally becomes. The importance of the games mean better defense is played as well.

A couple great systems here. First, in a game 6 or 7 of the playoffs, when the spread is no more than 6.5 points and at least 50% of the overall bets are on the over, the under is a whopping 72-37 (66.1%). That alone is a tremendous angle.

Let's make it even better. In the Celtics last 12 games that fit this system, all 12 of them have stayed under the total. This is a perfect 12-0 under system on Celtics elimination games staying under the total.

This number is inflated by a few points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Marlins have allowed 6 runs or more in 6 of their last 8 games. The Marlins pitching staff has really fallen apart of late, and the bullpen is taxed right now. 

Jose Urena gets the start here, and I don't think he's the answer. Urena had a 6.13 ERA last year. His ERA looks great this year, but that is thanks to stranding 94.3% of runners. He is striking out only 4.22 batters per nine innings. Urena is going to regress to the mean soon. The Braves hitters have a .500 OBP against him, though it is in only 26 plate appearances. 

Mike Foltynewicz had a 4.31 ERA last year and he has a 4.55 ERA so far this year. He puts himself into bad pitch counts far too often, and that leads to mistakes. This is a guy with potential, but so far he has struggled to realize it. The Marlins hitters combine to have a .400 on base percentage against him in 50 plate appearances.

Both bullpens are bad and these offenses are improved. The over is 25-8-2 in the last 35 meetings between these two teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open. The ball flies so well there with the heat and low humidity.

There are some great long-term numbers to prove this is a great over park with the roof open as it is scheduled to be in this one. The over is 150-99 (60.2%) in the last 249 games at Chase Field with the following conditions being met:

-A temperature of 75 degrees or warmer

-The total is 9.5 or lower

-The game is before the All Star Break (roof rarely open later in the season)

Greinke and Cole are both good pitchers, but both of these bullpens are trainwrecks. A total of only 8.5 at Chase Field with the roof open is only warranted if you have a guy like Clayton Kershaw pitching in my opinion, and he isn't pitching here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs meet in Game 6 in Houston. Kawhi Leonard is expected to play by many, but he is still listed as questionable for this one. 

The Spurs won in overtime in Game 5. That was a game that was played to by far the slowest tempo of any game in this series during regulation. The game finished at 217 points even with an overtime. 

Over the years I've found that the tempo slows down and typically the defenses get better when more is on the line. There's a bunch on the line here. Houston is looking to avoid elimination from the playoffs.

There's a strong system that backs this. In a Game 6 or Game 7 in the NBA playoffs with the following information:

-Home team shoots 45% or better from the floor

-The home team win percentage is 67.5% or lower

-The spread is no more than 7.5 points in either direction

The under is a whopping 38-13 (75%) in these situations. This game fits this situation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals collide in a get away day game in Tampa Bay here. These types of games are generally slightly lower scoring. It's the type of game where you see umpires call more strikes and hitters swing at more first pitches in hopes of keeping things moving. 

Mike Everitt is behind the plate here. On a get away day with a game start time of 5 pm eastern or earlier, the under is 40-24 in Everitt's last 64 games behind home plate. That's a nice 62.5% win percentage.

Jason Vargas and Jake Odorizzi have pitched really well this year, and they'll be facing a weak opposing offense here. Look for both guys to pitch fairly deep into the game.

The under is 12-1 in Vargas' last 13 starts. The under is 8-1 in Odorizzi's last 9 starts. The under is 4-0 in Odorizzi's last 4 following a quality start in his last game. A combined 24-2 trend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Red Sox offense underachieved for a long time this year. Now, they are on fire. It can be pretty amazing how long these kind of offensive streaks can go for good offensive teams. The Red Sox will definitely finish the year as one of the best offenses in baseball. 

Boston has scored 35 runs in their last three games! They sat out a couple key hitters last night, and I would expect a full roster of starters for this one. Chase Anderson started the year red hot, but he has been shaky in his last couple starts. Anderson is a streaky pitcher and he's been missing his spots in his last couple starts. Boston should make him pay.

Kyle Kendrick is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Kendrick is almost 33 years old, and he was never very good to start with. Kendrick had a 4.73 ERA in Triple A last year, and he had a 6.00 ERA in Triple A this year before being called up. That's not the type of guy that has much success against a good big league lineup very often. The Brewers have a lot of young talent in the order.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Francisco Liriano is a very inconsistent pitcher. Liriano is capable of completely shutting anyone down, but he's also capable of struggling badly. Liriano pitches much better at home, and he's up against a Cleveland team that has been really bad against lefties this year.

Cleveland is hitting .213 against lefties on the year, and they rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

Danny Salazar is due for some positive regression. Opponents have a ridiculously high batting average on balls in play against him of .385. That will come down over time. Salazar has excellent stuff and he's up against a Toronto offense without Donaldson and Tulowitzki.

Vic Carapazza is the home plate umpire here, and he ranks in the top ten of my best under umpires in baseball. 

The under is 6-0 in the Indians last 6 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 4-0-1 in Salazar's last 5 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Jays last 4 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 6-0 in Liriano's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. A 30-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Hector Santiago and Mike Pelfrey on the mound and the total is only 8.5? The cool temperatures in Chicago have something to do with it, but I can't pass up an over at this number with these two guys on the mound.

Santiago has a 2.78 ERA this year, but he has a 5.19 xFIP and a 4.74 SIERA. Those are sabermetric stats that show Santiago has been extremely lucky so far this year. He'll face a White Sox team that ranks in the top six in the majors against left handed pitching in almost all the major categories. 

Mike Pelfrey had 7.50 ERA in two starts in Triple A this year, and he has a 5.02 ERA in the big leagues thus far. This is a guy who is averaging a pathetic 2.51 strikeouts per nine innings this year. He isn't missing bats, and I don't expect Pelfrey to fool many Twins in this game. The Twins hitters have a lifetime batting average of .367 against him.

The over is 8-1 in the Twins last 9 games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals offense is way better than they showed early in the season. The Cardinals have broken out offensively in their last few games. St. Louis has now scored 30 runs in their last four games. I look for this to be one of the best offenses in the National League this year.

Adam Wainwright isn't the pitcher he used to be. Wainwright has an ERA over 6 this year. He isn't as bad as that number would suggest, but his road ERA in the last two years is well over 5. The Marlins offense is good enough with Yelich, Stanton, and Ozuna in the middle of the order to do some damage.

Both bullpens have been bad this year and that means scoring chances late in the game. 

Andy Fletcher is behind the plate here, and he ranks in the bottom ten umps in the majors in strikes called in the past five years.

The over is 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Miami between these teams. A 15-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Coors Field is obviously the best hitters park in the majors. The weather conditions matter a lot at Coors though, and the weather conditions on Sunday are absolutely perfect for the over.

A warm temperature has meant higher scoring at Coors Field. Wind blowing out is obviously helpful as well, and that's what we'll have here. The average temperature during this game is expected to be 78 degrees. The wind will be blowing out at 10-15 mph.

In the past 75 day games at Coors Field with a temperature of 75 degrees or warmer and wind blowing out at 10 mph or more, the over is 50-25.

Tyler Chatwood has been terrible at home. He has a career 5.04 ERA at Coors Field. The Diamondbacks bullpen isn't any good, so even if Taijuan Walker slows down the Rockies lineup, Colorado should get plenty of scoring chances late.

Take the over.

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners offense has been much better of late. They were quieted by Yu Darvish last night, but lots of teams will be quieted by Darvish and his elite stuff. Seattle has a lineup full of guys who can hit lefties.

Martin Perez is a below average lefty. Seattle's lineup has a combined .425 on base percentage against Perez, so there are a bunch of guys who really hit him well. Nelson Cruz has 3 homers in 12 at bats against Perez. Kyle Seager has 4 homers in 32 at bats against Perez. 

Chase De Jong doesn't appear to be ready for the big leagues yet. De Jong has had serious control problems all through his minor league career, and he can't locate the zone at all in the bigs. His stuff isn't overpowering enough to overcome that.

The bullpens were both used up in a big way last night. The two starters have to go deeper here, and neither starter is good.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds offense has been much better than expected this year. Eugenio Suarez's red hot start has been a big catalyst. Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler have been very good as well. Everyone expects Joey Votto to be great, and he has been as per the norm. 

The under is 11-3 in the San Francisco Giants 14 home games this year. The over is 11-5 in their last 16 road games. The Giants and Reds have played a bunch of high scoring games against each other in the last few years. The over is 20-8-2 in the last 30 meetings. The over is 6-1-2 in the last 9 meetings between them in Cincinnati.

Ty Blach is a pitch to contact guy. He's averaging less than 4 strikeouts per nine innings. That's extremely low. Amir Garrett was awesome in his first few games but the advanced metrics suggest he has been fortunate overall and I suspect he'll have plenty of growing pains.

Both teams have been better against lefties than righties on the year. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Thursday Early Bird Special* Bill Miller is one of the best under umpires in baseball. No other umpire has made me as much money in the past few years as Miller. The under has value to start with Miller behind the plate. In fact, the under is 219-173 in his games behind the plate (56% under wins). 

The wind here is a major factor as well. The wind is expecting to be blowing in from left center field at 15-20 mph throughout the game with gusts to 25 mph. With a temperature only in the low to mid 60's, the ball won't be carrying well on Thursday afternoon in Kansas City.

The Royals are dead last in weighted on base average in the majors against left handed pitching. The White Sox are dead last in the same category against right handed pitching. Holland is a mediocre lefty, but that should be enough to slow the Royals. Ian Kennedy has been good for the Royals, and his swinging strikes rate and overall strikeout rate has me relatively high on him right now.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Royals last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Royals last 5 vs. a left handed starter. The under is 6-0 in the Royals last 6 games overall vs. a team with a winning record. A 17-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners start Hisashi Iwakuma here. Iwakuma's numbers on the year don't look all that bad, but a closer look at him and I think he is in some real trouble going forward.

Iwakuma has a 4.15 ERA, but his FIP is 6.58 on the season. Iwakuma is striking out only 4.15 batters per nine innings. He struck out 7.70 per nine innings two years ago. Iwakuma is allowing more hard contact than he has at any other time in his career. His velocity is down drastically this year, and it suggests either simple aging (he is 36) or an injury of some kind. 

Ricky Nolasco starts for the Angels. Nolasco has a 4.13 ERA but a FIP of 5.26, so he has gotten lucky as well. Nolasco isn't a terrible pitcher, but he isn't good either.

Adrian Johnson is behind home plate and he's a very good over umpire. The over is hitting at a 57% clip in his last 5 years of games behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Nationals are absolutely crushing left handed pitching so far this year. Washington has an amazing .439 OBP against lefties this year. That's obviously not going to continue, but the Nationals are going to be one of the top three or four in the majors against lefties.

Arizona ranked as the best team in the majors against lefties according to weighted on base average last year. The Diamondbacks are 11th so far this year. Expect them to be very good in that category again this year.

Robbie Ray is a pretty good starter, but walks are a major problem. Ray is walking 5.04 batters per nine innings. That's bad news when Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire. He is arguably the best over umpire in the business and he won't give Ray any breaks here.

Gio Gonzalez is due for some major regression. Gonzalez has a 1.62 ERA and a 3.69 FIP and a 4.17 FIP. That suggests he has gotten very fortunate so far this year. He started really fast last year before pitching some subpar baseball the rest of the way.

The over is 7-0-1 in the Nats last 8 games. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 vs. the NL West. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games. A 16-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION* Two of the top defensive minded teams in the NHL clash in Game 3 and this is an under play.

These two goalies are extremely dominant and are going to give their
top games here with a lot on the line.

Henrik Lundqvist and Craig Anderson have stepped up time and time
again this season for their teams and expect them to do that just
here.

This is going to fall in the hands of the Senators and them slowing
the tempo down. They will look to really play control and possession,
not allowing the Rangers to get out and attack.

A few trends to keep in mind for this game. Under is 17-6-7 in Rangers last 30
Conference Semifinals games. Under is 19-5-2 in the last 26 meetings
in New York. Under is 32-10-9 in the last 51 meetings.

This is a nice spot to expect a very low scoring game. Trends wise,
this is an under move and given the situation, this is going to be a
slower paced game. Both goalies are far better than they showed last game.

Take the under.

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles are both better on offense than they have shown in the early going this year. Both of these teams have a large amount of proven hitters who are underachieving thus far, and those guys should start producing sooner rather than later. 

Rick Porcello isn't nearly as good as you would think based on the fact that he won the AL Cy Young award last year. Porcello is a pitch to contact guy who has only been mediocre in his career against Baltimore. The Orioles have a .323 OBP against him.

Dylan Bundy has been good this year, but I still don't trust his consistency, especially away from home. Bundy has a career 2.67 ERA at home and a 4.53 ERA on the road. 

The Orioles bullpen is good, but it takes a big hit without Britton. The Red Sox bullpen is only average. 

This one is priced too low. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls are looking to try to stay alive after losing 3 straight to the Boston Celtics. 

The Bulls are expected to be without Rajon Rondo again in this one. Without Rondo, the pace of the games has slowed down drastically. The first couple games were pacing at about 97 possessions per game. The last three have been 93.5 on average. That's a big drop and it makes it hard to surpass this total. 

For some perspective, the 93.58 possessions the last 3 games have averaged out to is slower than any team in the NBA played on average during the regular season. We know that Game 6 and Game 7's in the playoffs often get slower. When there is so much on the line, the game slows down and the defenses usually get better.

In Game 6 and Game 7 situations, the under is a perfect 15-0 in the last 15 games with these specifics-

-The total is 191 or higher

-The spread is between home team -7.5 and home team +5

-The home team has won 60% or less of their games on the year

-The home team's defensive field goal percentage allowed is 45.6% or lower

This game fits the system. Look for a slower pace and a hard fought game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards play Game 6 of their series on Friday night. Game 6 and Game 7's in the NBA playoffs have been good under plays in general, and when you take a closer look at specific stats the trend gets even stronger.

When the home team in that game has won 62% or less of their games, and the under is getting 37% or less of the bets, the under is 26-8 in the last 34 games. That's a pretty strong trend.

The pace has slowed down in this series. The slowest game by far was Game 5. The Hawks have a much better chance of winning if they slow the game down. The Hawks ranked fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the regular season, but they ranked in the bottom five in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Atlanta needs to slop this game up to try to continue on to Game 7. 

With the importance of the game, 210 is an awfully high number. Backed by long-term trends, I'll definitely side with the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* This is a Game 6 where Memphis is looking to stave off elimination. NBA elimination games have typically been strong under plays, especially in particular situations. This game fits a couple of key situations.

When it is game 6 or game 7 in the NBA playoffs and the home team has a win percentage of less than 62%, and the spread of the game is between home team -6 and home team +7 points, the under is a whopping 48-19 (71.6%). 

These two offenses absolutely went off last game, and that caused the oddsmakers to move the number up. The Spurs scored 1.323 points per possession last game. The Grizzlies scored 1.231 points per possession. This is record territory. The pace was played to a VERY slow 85 possessions. If they keep playing at that pace, the under has significant value.

The Spurs were one of the top defenses in the NBA and the Grizzlies will fight hard defensively with their backs against the wall.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Dodgers have been awful against left handed pitching. The Dodgers are 21st in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching so far this year. Last year, they were dead last in the majors in that same statistic against lefties. Matt Moore isn't a particularly great lefty, but this is a very good pitchers park, and the Dodgers don't hit those lefties well to start with. 

Julio Urias is going to be a star for the Dodgers. How soon? Likely sooner than you would think. Urias was very good in his rookie year last year despite being 19 years old. His stuff is electric and he'll be up against a Giants lineup that is badly banged up. The Giants lineup as it stands right now is one of the five worst in the majors.

It's a get away day which makes me lean more toward the under with some key players possibly getting the day off. Also, Kerwin Danley is the umpire here and the under is 86-50 in his last 136 games behind home plate.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants have a great rivalry. These two teams bring it every time they meet up with each other. While the Giants haven't been good so far this year, we have seen a much better Giants team show up in the first two games of this series.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. Miller ranks second out of more than 80 umpires in the majors in percentage of pitches called a strike in the last five years. The under is cashing at a 56% clip in Miller's last 300 games behind home plate. You won't find a better under umpire than Miller. He has made me a lot of cash in the past few years.

Johnny Cueto has a 2.61 ERA at AT&T Park. Cueto also has a 2.99 ERA in his career in the first half of the season. He starts strong, and I expect a good outing from him against the Dodgers here.

Alex Wood is a solid pitcher, and he goes against a Giants lineup that has all kinds of injury problems right now.

The Dodgers bullpen is elite and the Giants bullpen is no worse than mediocre.

The under is 7-0 in the Dodgers last 7 games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in Wood's last 4 starts following a team loss. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a left handed starter. The under is 4-0 in Cueto's last 4 starts vs. the Dodgers. A 31-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers meet on Wednesday night in Texas.  Both of these offenses are underachieving so far this year, but I expect them to warm up soon.

Texas has the third lowest batting average on balls in play (BABIP) as a team this year. That tells you they are having some really bad luck in general when it comes to batted balls. This is a Rangers team that has typically been good against left-handed pitching.

Hector Santiago and Cole Hamels both carry some ridiculous strand rates and opponents BABIP numbers. Both of these guys are going to regress in a negative way soon.

Hamels' worst month of the year historically is the first month of the season. Santiago has consistently proven himself to not be good enough to be effective as a starter.

We have an over umpire here in David Rackley. The wind will be blowing out at 15-20 mph during this one as well.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* Dylan Covey only pitched six games above the High A ball level of the minor leagues, and yet he is somehow in the White Sox starting rotation. It makes little sense to me. Covey was tatooed for 8 runs in his last start against the Yankees. As long as he is in the rotation, I think we should assume he'll have a lot of bad games. Covey walked more than 5 batters per nine innings in Double A last year, and he's struck out only 1.74 batters per nine innings so far this year. 

The Royals offense isn't good, but I think any big league offense should get a lot of chances to score against Dylan Covey.

Danny Duffy is a quality pitcher, but the White Sox are going to be good against lefties this year. Several guys on this roster are much better against south paws than right handed pitching. 

The over is 4-1-2 in Duffy's last 7 road starts. There is early sharp money on the over, and I'm going to agree with them here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA System Play PERFECTION* The Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks played an extremely low scoring game in Game Four. That game finished 30.5 points under the posted total. This kind of huge difference from the posted total is going to create a response from the oddsmakers. We've seen that result in the posted total going from 195 last game to 191.5 in this game. 

Keep in mind that the posted total in the first game between these two was actually 200.5 when it first came out. A nine point adjustment from game one to game five is a huge adjustment. 

Toronto and Milwaukee are both underperforming drastically on offense compared to their season numbers. Toronto has been the least efficient offense in the NBA playoffs so far through four games. They are averaging only 0.94 points per possession. In the regular season, they finished sixth with 1.098 points per possession. The Milwaukee defense is no better than average, and I expect Toronto to shoot the ball better. Milwaukee's offense averaged 1.068 points per possession in the regular season. They are now at 1.014 points per possession in this series.

There's a strong system play backing this one. When the last game went under the total by more than 27 points and in the following game the home team is favored by 4.5 points or more, the over is a perfect 16-0 in the 16 times this situation has come up in the last 10 years.

The tendency is for the offenses to bounce back after such a terrible showing. With the strong angle and the reduced line, I'll take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Clippers/Jazz Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers meet in an important game four matchup in Salt Lake City. 

Utah won the first game in LA, but they have lost the last two games. Chris Paul put on a show to win the game for the Clippers late in the fourth.

Blake Griffin is out and Rudy Gobert is doubtful for this game. The under was 11-8 in the 19 games Griffin missed during the regular season. There's a lot more pressure on Paul to be great on offense when Griffin isn't in the game.

The pace of this series has been very slow. The average pace in the first 3 games is 91.5 possessions. These two teams are playing almost exclusively in the halfcourt. The shooting percentages have been extremely high in this series. Last game alone, the Clippers averaged a whopping 1.25 points per possession and the Jazz averaged 1.18 points per possession. That kind of efficiency isn't sustainable in the long run.

Look for things to go back to a normal rate. Remember, the first two games in this series stayed under the total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Afternoon MONEYMAKER* The Oklahoma City Thunder have successfully slowed the tempo down in this series. Now, they just need to get some improved defense. Still, the fact that the average pace in this series is 99.6 possessions per game is very telling. It's really difficult to consistently get to a total this high when you aren't playing any faster than that.

The free throw numbers have been really high the last couple games, and the Thunder shot better than 55% last game. That game still only cleared this total by 3.5 points. 

This game fits a nice long-term system. The team with the lower winning percentage is hosting the game and the spread is between -2.5 and +4.5 on the home team. The total is above 190.5. In this situation, the under is 58-23 (71.6%) in the last 81 games.

This total is several points too high. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs are no strangers to really low scoring games against each other. Though regular season games are generally higher scoring than playoff contests, 3 of the 4 regular season games between these two finished below this posted total. That includes one game that finished 95-89 in overtime. 

Memphis scored 1.238 points per possession last game against a really good Spurs defense. I don't think that is going to happen again. The Grizzlies aren't very efficient on offense this year, and the Spurs are good at guarding without fouling.

The tempo of each of these games has been really slow. The average pace of the games in this series has been 86.88 possessions. That is five possessions slower than the next slowest paced playoff series thus far.

The defenses should be better in this one. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mark Ripperger is one of the best under umpires in the game today. He'll help both young pitchers in this one. Jharel Cotton has a really high upside, and he is a guy who can be really tough to hit if he gets ahead in the count. Look for him to be ahead in the count more often with a strike caller like Ripperger behind the dish.

Ariel Miranda isn't a special pitcher by any means, but the Oakland A's offense should be one of the worst in the majors this year overall, and they are worse against left-handed pitching than righties. Miranda has enough pitches in his repertoire that he can likely keep the A's to a small amount of runs here. 

The under is 4-0-1 in Cotton's last 5 home starts. The under is 4-1 in Miranda's last 5 starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets aren't playing all that fast in this series. The pace of the first two games averaged 100 possessions. That's much slower than the regular season games between these two teams.

The first game stayed under the total by a huge amount as Oklahoma City languished on offense. Game two went over this number by two points as there were 65 free throws in the game. 

There is an angle on this game that fits perfectly, and it is a very good long-term winner. The under is a whopping 57-21 in this situation. Here are the factors that enter the equation.

-The road team has a higher winning percentage on the year than the home team.

-The total is 190.5 points or higher. 

-The spread is within a range of -2.5 on the home team to +4.5 on the home team.

That fits this game perfectly. I see this total being a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies have both been struggling to score runs of late. While Coors Field is obviously a great hitters park, the weather conditions here for Friday night's game aren't conducive to the ball carrying. The temperature will be in the mid 40's and the wind will be blowing in at about 10 mph.

Johnny Cueto has a dazzling 2.43 ERA in six career starts at Coors Field. That's one of the best marks you'll ever see from a pitcher with a lot of innings at Coors Field. Cueto has allowed only four runs in his last 22 innings pitched at Coors Field.

Tyler Chatwood has an amazing 2.55 ERA against the Giants in 74 career innings. In two of his last three starts against the Giants, the Giants finished the game with zero runs.

This total is high considering the situation and the pitching matchup. Also, Carlos Gonzalez is questionable for this game.

Some big trends pointing to the under here. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 8-0 in the Rockies last 8 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 during game one of a series. The under is 4-0 in Chatwood's last 4 starts. A combined 41-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Celtics/Bulls Red Hot CASH* The Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics have finished with 208 points total in each of the first two games. When you consider only that, the line of 207.5 makes a lot of sense. Let's look a little deeper though. 

The average pace is only 97 possessions per game through the first two. The Bulls are averaging 1.111 points per possession through the first two games. In the regular season, the Bulls averaged 1.046 points per possession. That kind of jump in offensive efficiency in the playoffs is almost unheard of. 

In the playoffs, defenses toughen up and the pace slows down because of the importance of the games. No game is more important than this one to the Celtics, who absolutely have to win this game. Look for improved defense from them here.

In the regular season, these teams met four times. None of those four games finished higher than 207 points. Playoff games are generally lower scoring, and I think the first two games being high is giving us value on the under. 

There is an angle on this game that fits perfectly, and it is a very good long-term winner. The under is a whopping 57-21 in this situation. Here are the factors that enter the equation.

-The road team has a higher winning percentage on the year than the home team.

-The total is 190.5 points or higher. 

-The spread is within a range of -2.5 on the home team to +4.5 on the home team.

Look for a return to normalcy and an under here. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Houston Astros have Lance McCullers on the mound on Thursday. McCullers is a guy with a really high upside. I think he has the stuff to be an All Star every year and contend for a Cy Young award. McCullers has a career 2.18 ERA at home. 

The Angels lineup isn't deep. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and Albert Pujols is hitting the ball well, but in general this team isn't very good down the order.

Matt Shoemaker starts here for the Angels. Shoemaker is the Angels best pitcher, at least in my opinion. He has a deceptive delivery and mixes up his pitches well. The Astros offense is missing Carlos Correa right now, and he is considered doubtful for this game. 

Tripp Gibson is the umpire here, and my umpire spreadsheet says he is a decent under umpire. It's a Wednesday get away day game and that's definitely a positive for the under as well.

Take the under big! 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers are terrible against left handed pitching. This offense is one of the best in the majors against righties, but against lefties they are a bottom six or eight offense in baseball.

Tyler Anderson has a solid track record in the minors and in the majors last year, and I expect him to pitch better than he has shown so far this season. Look for positive regression on the way for Anderson.

Clayton Kershaw dominates the game like no other pitcher. Kershaw is at his best at Dodger Stadium and this Rockies lineup isn't completely healthy right now. They are better against right handed pitching as well.

The under is 6-0 in the Rockies last 6 vs. a lefty. The under is 20-9 in the Dodgers last 29 home games vs. a left handed starter.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Zach Wheeler certainly has potential, but with his kind of injury history and lack of work in the last few years, he is a guy I have to be cautious with.

Zach Eflin just doesn't have good enough stuff to be a good big league pitcher. Eflin struck out only 4.41 batters per nine innings last year. That's an extremely low rate, and his minor league numbers don't show a guy who will strike out many either. Combine that with the fact that Eflin has below average command and you have a guy who isn't very good.

These two teams have a history of scoring a lot of runs against each other. The over is an impressive 70-34-5 in the last 109 games between these two NL East foes.

Given the question marks at pitcher and the lack of a dominant bullpen for either team, I'm taking the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total Domination* The Marlins have Koehler slated to pitch this game. In his career, he has a 4.50 ERA on the road. Miranda, who is set to start for the Mariners, is a young pitcher who has been having control problems. His FIP is above 6 this year, which suggests he is fortunate to not have an ever higher ERA this year. I like the over given this combination of subpar starting pitching.

The over is 11-4 in the Marlins last 15 interleague games. The over is 21-7-2 in the Marlins last 30 interleague games. I think this interleague contest will be high scoring as well.

Take the over.

*4 Star NBA Playoff Early Bird Winner* The Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks played four times during the regular season. Three of the four games went under the posted total. That's important because generally the defense ramps up significantly in the playoffs and games are lower scoring because of the importance of the game.

Both of these teams play at an average tempo, so there shouldn't be an extremely quick pace. These two defenses have matched up well in the past, and I expect them to be good again here.

Early games on Sunday have always been strong to the under, and first round playoff games have been good under plays in the past as well.

This game fits a nice playoff system: Play on the under in a first round playoff game that starts before 6 pm eastern and the total is at least 190.5. The under is 35-17 in the last 52 games that fits this system.

The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians have two of the top offenses in the majors. Cleveland should be even better on offense than they were last year. The Indians have a great young leader in Lindor, and Carlos Santana is great at getting on base from the leadoff spot.

Detroit's lineup is excellent as well. Miguel Cabrera has hit into some bad luck in the early going. He's been ripping the ball all over the field, but hitting it right at people. He'll get it going, and so will Victor Martinez. Detroit will score a lot of runs this year.

Justin Verlander has a career 5.37 ERA at Progressive Field. Corey Kluber has a career 4.05 ERA against the Detroit Tigers. Both Verlander and Kluber have been at their worst from an ERA standpoint in the first month of the season over the course of their careers.

The over is 26-5 in the last 31 meetings between these two in Cleveland. The over is 6-1 in Kluber's last 7 vs. Detroit. The over is 9-4 in Verlander's last 13 starts vs. Cleveland. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two excellent young pitchers going against each other in this one. Lance McCullers and Sean Manaea are both guys I have ranked very highly. I think these guys will both have breakout seasons this year. Perception isn't high enough on them yet to have a really low total, but I think this one deserves to be at no higher than 7.

Manaea just struck out 10 in his last start at Texas, and that's a really tough place to pitch. McCullers has been great this year, and he's up against one of the worst offenses in the American League in the Oakland A's. 

The under is 19-7 in McCullers' last 26 starts. The under is 6-1 in Manaea's last 7 starts vs. an AL West foe. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants are without Buster Posey right now, and there's no question he is the best hitter on this roster. The Giants lineup isn't great even with Posey, and without him this is a subpar lineup. 

Colorado's offense is banged up right now, and the Rockies aren't even close to the same team on the road offensively. 

Tyler Anderson has good stuff, and he has been good in his first couple years with the Rockies. I like his ability to induce weak contact and a lot of ground balls. 

Johnny Cueto has a career 2.22 ERA in 12 starts vs. the Rockies, so he has really dominated this team. Cueto has a great 2.61 ERA in his career when pitching inside AT&T Park.

Mike Everitt is the umpire here and he ranks in the top ten in the majors in strikes called in the last five years. A good under umpire.

The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a divisional opponent. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. A 16-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense is getting healthy, and I expect big things from them this year. Chad Kuhl doesn't have very good stuff. Kuhl is going to get hard by a lot of teams this year, and I think Boston will be one of them. 

Eduardo Rodriguez is very inconsistent, and the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup is excellent against lefties. Pittsburgh has some major split differentials against lefties vs. righties, and that is something to keep in mind going forward this year. 

Another key factor here is the conditions at Fenway Park. The weather is helpful for the over. The temperature will be 60 degrees with the wind blowing out at 12 mph during the afternoon. The ball should fly well.

Two way above average offenses and two suspect pitchers. I'll take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Regular Season Finale CASH* The Orlando Magic have decided to play much faster late in the season. In their last eight games, Orlando ranks fourth in the NBA in tempo. For the season as a whole, they rank 14th in the league in pace. The Magic are experimenting with a quick pace as the season comes to a close. 

Orlando's defense has suffered in a big way when they have experimented with playing faster. The Magic are dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. 

Detroit has some good young players who are getting some minutes now including Ish Smith at the point guard spot and Boban Marjanovic, and I see them being able to score on this bad Orlando defense. 

Orlando's offense is coming off one of their franchises worst all time offensive performances. After a game like that, it is generally a good idea to expect a much better performance. The shooting numbers are unlikely to be that bad again, and these professionals usually show some pride.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox are starting to get healthy on offense. Hanley Ramirez, Xander Boegarts, and Mookie Betts are all back in the lineup. That makes a huge difference, and Boston put up 8 runs last night. 

This Boston lineup is one of the best in baseball, and they are scoring to score a bunch of runs this year. Baltimore starts Ubaldo Jimenez here, and Jimenez puts way too many guys on base for my liking. He has an ERA above 6 at Fenway Park in his career as well. 

Steven Wright has been much worse at home than on the road, and this Baltimore offense is definitely above average.

Adrian Johnson is the umpire here and he rates in the top ten over umpires in baseball in my umpire database. The wind will be blowing out at about 14 or 15 mph during this game as well, which certainly helps.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Phoenix Suns have been really good on offense down the stretch. Not only are they pushing the pace, but they are being much more efficient on offense in the last few weeks of the season. Tyler Ulis is doing a great job running the point for this team, and he is getting guys like T.J. Warren and Devin Booker more open looks.

The Sacramento Kings just gave up 135 points last game to the Houston Rockets. Sacramento has now allowed 117 points or more in three of their last five games. 

On the other side, Phoenix has allowed 120 points or more in six of their last nine games. The Suns defense is brutal. Offensively, Phoenix has scored 116 points ore more  in six of their last nine games.

Neither team has anything to play for, and I expect the tempo to be quick all the way in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* There has been some serious sharp action on the over, and I think that makes a lot of sense. Detroit is going to be one of the best in the majors against left handed pitching this year. Hector Santiago is one of the weakest left handed pitchers in the majors. 

Matt Boyd is a below average pitcher as well, and the Twins offense should put up a lot of runs this year. 

Both bullpens are way below average, so I expect a lot of scoring chances late in this game. 

I'm tracking over 1,000 bets so far in this game and 70% of the bets are on the over, but a whopping 99% of the money is on the over.

The over is 8-0 in the Tigers last 8 vs. the AL Central.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I'm following a long-term system that has been strong for overs in the first month of the season. When the total is 9 or lower and the temperature is 65 degrees or higher with a wind blowing out at least 7 miles per hour, the over is hitting at an amazing 63.4% in the last ten seasons. This game fits with a total of 8 and a forecast of 73 degrees with the wind blowing out at about 12 mph.

Adam Wainwright had a 7.16 ERA in the first month of the season last year. Wainwright also had an awful 6.18 ERA in 17 road starts last season. He isn't a terrible pitcher now, but he isn't even close to the ace he once was. 

Tanner Roark doesn't have dominating stuff, and I expect his numbers to move backward a bit this year. Without a dominating pitch it is hard to sustain the kind of numbers Roark had last year. 

This Cardinals offense is coming off a terrible performance on Sunday and I expect much better from them here. The Nationals are improved on offense from a year ago.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Sunday Night 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves meet on Sunday night in a game that means nothing to either team. I'm not even sure either of these teams actually want to win this game. When you have no motivation to win a game, the first thing that goes is the defense.

At the end of the regular season, the over has done better than the under in the past few seasons, and that has been especially true in games between teams who have no shot at the playoffs. 

Minnesota ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 8 games. The Timberwolves aren't even pretending to try on defense right now. The Lakers aren't good on defense either. Minnesota has played faster of late, and I think this will be an uptempo game where both teams get a lot of easy shots.

The over is 7-0 in Minnesota's last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Pacific Division. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Los Angeles. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings overall between these two teams. A 23-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the WEEK* The Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in the series finale on Sunday afternoon. There haven't been many runs scored in the first two games in this series. No one would have expected 2-1 and 4-2 finals at Coors between these two teams. I don't necessarily expect this game to be that low, but I do think 11 is way too high considering all the factors that go into this one.

The Los Angeles Dodgers offense is MUCH better against right handed pitchers. Tyler Anderson is a good young lefty for Colorado. Anderson had a great 3.54 ERA and a 3.59 FIP last year. That suggests there was no luck involved in his strong season. Anderson had a stellar 2.45 ERA in day games started last year. Anderson also had an amazing 1.83 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers. 

Kenta Maeda starts for the Dodgers. He's great at getting soft contact, and that works to his advantage here. The Rockies have some key offensive pieces banged up now as well. Maeda has only allowed 4 runs in 17 innings pitched at Coors Field. 

The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 starts vs. a team with a 50% or higher win percentage. The under is 4-0 in Maeda's last 4 starts vs. Colorado. The under is 4-0 in Gary Cedarstrom's last 4 games behind home plate. A 26-0 angle.

Take the under big. TOP Rated Total of the WEEK 

*3 Star Play Under* Ron Kulpa is the umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. I track umpires extensively and Kulpa is a big time strike caller. He loves ringing up batters on questionable pitches, and that definitely helps the under in a big way.The under is 211-157 in his last 368 games behind home plate (57.1% unders).

Sean Manaea is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He is going to have a breakout season soon, and it won't surprise me if it is this season. He'll be dealing with a Rangers offense that is without Adrian Beltre. That's key since Beltre is the team's best hitter against lefties.

Martin Perez isn't all that good, but this Oakland offense isn't very good either. Perez has pitched his best in day games, and he'll be helped a lot by Kulpa behind the dish.

Give me a number this high with Kulpa behind home plate and I almost have to take it.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Totals that are set relatively low have been very good over bets in the month of April in the last few years. 

Let's take a look at a situation that fits this game perfectly. Games totaled at 9 or less where the temperature is at least 65 degrees (77 projected for St Louis Sunday) and the wind is blowing out at least 10 miles per hour (the forecast calls for 20 mph wind out here) have gone over the total at a clip of 60-35 (63.2%) in the past ten years. 

It helps that we get Andy Fletcher behind the plate. Fletcher ranks in the bottom ten umpires in the majors in strikes called in the last three seasons. 

Scott Feldman is a way below average pitcher, and this Cardinals lineup will be one of the best in the National League. 

Take the over.