Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Detroit Lions lost last week's game in awful fashion. Aaron Rodgers' hail mary completion to end the game will be remembered for years. Detroit did play well for the majority of that game, and their defense has been much improved in recent weeks.

Detroit allowed 16 in their win at Green Bay. They allowed 13 at home against Oakland. They then allowed 14 against the Eagles. Last week they gave up 27, but it would have been a decent 21 before that last play.

St. Louis' offense has been a joke of late. The Rams offensive line is banged up in a big way. St. Louis hasn't been able to pave the way for Todd Gurley to get going at all of late. Nick Foles was so bad last week that the Rams are going back to Case Keenum for this one. Keenum isn't a good option either. 

The Rams defensive line should get pressure on Matt Stafford, and the Lions can't run the football at all. Both teams play much slower than the league average in terms of pace of play. The public is betting the over at almost 70% and yet the line has dropped a half point. That's very telling.

The under is 7-1 in the Rams last 8. The under is 12-3 in the Lions last 15 road games. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Buffalo Bills defense has been a big disappointment so far this year. Buffalo just isn't getting the job done on that side of the ball. Philadelphia's offense has obviously been disappointing too, but the Eagles play at the fastest tempo in the NFL and they should break some big plays on this Buffalo defense.

On the other side, Buffalo's offense has been far better than expected. Tyrod Taylor has been excellent. LeSean McCoy has all kinds of reasons to be very motivated for his chance to go against his former team here as well. The Eagles defense has been really bad against the run in recent weeks. Watkins has been a great playmaker for this offense.

This total is too low for these two teams. Good weather is expected for this one as well. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is locked in right now. On the other hand, the San Diego Chargers offense is a mess. These teams met in late November, and the Chiefs won that one 33-3. Kansas City's pass rush was all over Phillip Rivers in that game, and there's no reason to expect anything different in this game. In two of the Chargers last three games, they have put up only three points.

San Diego is the single most banged up offense in the NFL. The Chargers offensive line is a patched together group that isn't good at all. Rivers has next to one to throw the ball to with all sorts of wide receiver injuries. Kansas City should shut them down here.

Kansas City's offense is nothing spectacular. The 34 points they scored last week was leading since the defense directly led to most of those points. The Chiefs should grab a lead here and then milk the clock. Kansas City ranks 30th out of 32 teams in the NFL in pace of play.

The under is 6-0 in San Diego's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in KC's last 7 after gaining 250 yards or less last game. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The DePaul Blue Demons host a very sneaky good Arkansas Little Rock team tonight. Little Rock has wins at Tulsa and at San Diego State this year. Little Rock has a new coach this season, and he has this team playing some suffocating defense. They will slow the tempo of this game down and make DePaul work really hard for every shot. The Blue Demons aren't a team that pushes the tempo much, so I think this game is played in the halfcourt throughout. My numbers had this at 127. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams met earlier this year and the total finished at 153. The shooting numbers weren't very good in that one, but the tempo was quick. As long as both teams continue their past trend of playing quick, I like our chances of cashing with the over in this one. The shooting numbers should be better than last game, because neither defense is good. Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams played just a week ago and that one sailed well over the posted total. Both of these teams like to play quickly, and they both foul a bunch. A game where both teams get in transition and both teams get to the line a lot is one of my favorite spots to play the over. North Texas' defense is one of the worst in the country. I had this one at 153. Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*4 Star NCAA BB Top Total* The UCF Knights are playing at a much slower pace this year thanks to their 7'6 center Tacko Fall being on the team. Fall is a freshman who has made a big impact already on the defensive end. Florida Atlantic has a bad offense to start with, and I don't see them getting many good looks at the hoop here. UCF has committed the least amount of fouls of any team in the nation.

Both teams prefer to slow the game down. I had this number lined at 128 points. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* Davidson has been shooting the lights out in every game except their loss to North Carolina. I had the over in that one and lost, so I'm still a little upset that Davidson picked that game to shoot it so poorly. I don't think it will happen again though. Western Carolina has a terrible defense, and they put opponents at the line a bunch. The Catamounts are going to give up a big number against Davidson here. Both teams love to run so the tempo should be enough to get Western Carolina plenty of points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans and Florida Gators are both ranked in the top six in the nation in defensive efficiency. Michigan State has been shutting down the opposition, especially in their last few games. I'm not impressed with Florida's offense right now, but the Gators work hard on defense and play good team defense. Tom Izzo's team doesn't give the opponent second chances, and without those second chance points Florida's offense should be in trouble. Take the under. 

3 star play- Here are two teams who love to slow down the tempo and George Mason has been really bad on the offensive end this year. My numbers had this one at 132 points. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* 

*5 Star Army/Navy TOP Play SMASHER* The Army Cadets and the Navy Midshipmen renew their tremendous rivalry this Saturday. This one will be played at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The Navy Midshipmen had a great season in their first year in the American Athletic Conference. Army has struggled once again to a 2-9 record. 

Navy and Army have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. It really makes a lot of sense. The single biggest advantage of running a triple option offense is that opposing defenses typically aren't accustomed to seeing it. That obviously isn't the case when these two teams play each other. The defenses work against triple option attacks every single day in practice.

Earlier this year, both of these teams played Air Force and both teams saw their games go under against Air Force. Army's game with Air Force was particularly telling. It was a 20-3 game that never got even close to the posted total. While Army's defense was bad overall this year, they did well against Air Force.

In the past nine years, there hasn't been a single game between these two finish with a higher total than 48 points.

The under is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. The under is 10-1 in Army's last 11 games in December. The under is 10-1 in Navy's last 11 games in December. The under is 5-0 in Navy's last 5 neutral site games. The under is 6-1 in Navy's last 7 on grass. A 40-3 angle. Take the under big.  This line is dropping through the week. I would play this for a top rated play down to 49 points. *TOP Rated Play*

*3 Star Play Over* 

*4 Star Play Under* 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*3 Star Play Over* 

*3 Star NBA TGIF CASH* The Memphis Grizzlies experimented a bit early in the year with playing faster, but it didn't work out well. Their tempo has slowed down in recent weeks. I expect them to end the season as one of the slowest paced teams in the league. 

Charlotte ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Hornets have been much improved on the defensive end this year. Al Jefferson and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are out for this game, and those are two of their best offensive weapons. 

Two of the three referees in this game (Curtis Blair and Courtney Kirkland) have a strong under record in the past few years, which is a nice bonus for this play.

The under is 35-16-1 in Memphis' last 52 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Hornets last 5 playing on one day of rest. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego Toreros just beat San Diego State 53-48 last game. San Diego plays at the 340th quickest tempo out of 351 teams in college basketball. Their opponent tonight, the Denver Pioneers, play at the 350th ranked pace in the nation. 

This number is certainly lower than I would like to play an under at in the new shot clock era, but my numbers suggest this will stay under this very low total. In fact, this could end up being one of the lowest scoring games of the year thus far.

Denver has played their last two games to 120 points and San Diego is far worse offensively than Denver's last two opponents. This one is low for a reason. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boise State Broncos are playing quicker this year. The Broncos have some very good scorers in Anthony Drmic, Mikey Thompson, and James Webb. Loyola Marymount prefers to play quickly, and their defense isn't good at all. I think Boise State will have a very efficient offensive night here. It won't be a surprise if they put up a big number.

Loyola Marymount's offense has been much better in the last few games. They have been attacking the basket more and kicking it it out to open jump shooters. Boise State's offense is great, but their defense isn't good. Look for Loyola Marymount to score quite a few as well. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Texas Tech Red Raiders have typically been a team that slows down the tempo under Tubby Smith's leadership. So far this year, they have played quicker and had some high scoring games, but I think that's more a product of who they have played against than anything else.

Tennessee-Martin is a bad team, but they are good at forcing opponents to slow down the pace. The Skyhawks are going to do their absolute best to turn this into a low scoring game. With Texas Tech's previous history of slowing the game down, I think they are an opponent that Martin will be able to slow down. I had this number at 135 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Marshall Thundering Herd are playing at the second quickest tempo in the nation. Last game, they played to a 107-84 final against James Madison. It's important to note that James Madison is a team that likes to slow the game down. The fact that the game got to 191 points is indicative of Marshall's poor defense and their tempo. 

Eastern Illinois has been playing to the pace of their opponent this year. The Panthers are good at getting to the line, and they should get plenty of free throw attempts here. Their defense isn't very good, and I think Marshall can beat them down the floor. Take the over. 

*4 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The Washington Redskins have a real chance to be the outright leader in the awful NFC East. Washington would be my lean here as far as the side goes, but the public is pounding the Redskins and the line is dropping, which is a reason for me to stay away in this case. 

Instead, I'm playing the under. The Redskins and Cowboys rank 31st and 32nd out of 32 teams in the NFL in terms of pace of play. That means we'll see a lot of the play clock ticking very low before the snap in this one. 

Dallas knows they can't throw it very much with Cassel at quarterback, and I look to see a heavy diet of runs from the Cowboys. Washington's defense will be loading up the box. The Redskins offense has been pretty good at home, but Dallas' defense has solid numbers for the year overall.

These two teams are bitter rivals and they have played a lot of low scoring games against one another in recent years. 

The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. The under is 4-0 in Dallas' last 4 on grass. The under is 7-1 in the Cowboys last 8 following an ATS loss. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs defense is first in the NBA by a wide margin when it comes to defensive efficiency. The Spurs are winning with defense this year. Philadelphia ranks last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Can Philadelphia get to 80 points here? I'm not sure if they can. 

San Antonio isn't likely to be anxious to run the score up a bunch here as they are on a road trip and play a good Toronto team on Wednesday.

Philadelphia's Isaiah Canaan and Jahlil Okafor are both questionable for this game, and those are two of their best offensive players. Canaan has a sprained ankle and if he plays he'll be less than 100 percent.

The under is 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 Monday games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or less. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Villanova/Oklahoma Total DOMINATION* The Villanova Wildcats are first in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are also slowing the tempo of the game down this year compared to what they have done in the past. Oklahoma ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Two of the top five defenses against each other in a game where there is a very odd shooting backdrop. Bloch Arena will be the host to this game, and it's a 4,000 seat building. This isn't going to be anything like the normal venues these two teams play at, and that likely will mean lower shooting percentages.

Oklahoma will look to push the tempo, but Villanova's physical defense should control Oklahoma's offense. I think this one finishes around 140. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins defeated Kentucky in a big upset in their last game. That should give this team a bunch of momentum. They go up against a poor Long Beach State defense here, and UCLA's offense should continue to fire on all cylinders. Long Beach State has been giving up the points in bunches this year.

UCLA prefers to push the tempo and Long Beach State has guards who really want to run this season. Look for an up and down game and a high scoring contest. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The North Carolina Tar Heels got Marcus Paige back last game, and it showed right away how much he helps their team on offense. North Carolina always wants to run, and not many teams will run with them, but it's hard to see Davidson slowing the game down. The Wildcats rank 9th in the nation in pace and they have two great scorers in Gibbs and Sullivan. 

North Carolina has a huge edge on the glass here, and I expect a bunch of second chance points for the Tar Heels. I had this game lined at 177 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a really bad basketball team. The only way they have been able to keep games close this year is to stall. They'll be stalling again in this one, and North Dakota State is typically happy to play slowly as well. Southern Miss is shooting less than 35% from the floor. North Dakota State's defense is good. Southern Miss has actually been pretty good on defense as well. An ugly game. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington State Cougars like to push the tempo thanks to coach Ernie Kent's philosophy. Washington State will get a chance to do that against a Portland State team that loves to run. Additionally, Portland State has been one of the worst defense in the country in the past three years. Washington State should put up a big number here. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Wisconsin Green Bay plays at the second fastest tempo in the country. Toledo is always happy to play fast as well, and the Rockets offense is tremendous. A lot of pace all the way through this one and plenty of trips to the line for both teams. I had this one at 170 points. Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Montana State Bobcats defense is one of the worst in the country. That makes this a great matchup for a team like Nebraska Omaha. Omaha plays at the third fastest tempo in the country. Omaha should get into the 90's in this game, and Montana State generally shoots the ball very well at home. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Rivalry game here and the defenses have hand the upper hand in the past few meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Tennessee Titans are lacking playmakers on offense. Marcus Mariota is a good quarterback, but I don't think he has enough help right now. Tennessee generally likes to run the ball, but Jacksonville actually ranks first in the NFL in least yards per carry allowed this year 3.34 per attempt. 

Jacksonville's offense isn't great to start with either, and without Hurns at wide receiver this week, Bortles is going to have a difficult test. The Titans defense is an underrated unit that has been very good this year.

A couple weeks ago these teams played and their game stayed under the total. I think this one does too.

The under is 6-0 in the Titans last 6 December games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 on grass. The under is 7-1 in their last 8 after gaining 90 yards or less rushing last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 21-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings can't throw the football with any kind of consistency, and that has been the way to beat the Seahawks this year. The Seattle front seven has still been doing a really nice job against the run. Minnesota's rushing attack is first in the NFL, but I think Adrian Peterson will find things a little tougher going than normal here.

Seattle runs the ball early and often, and their passing game lost a key weapon when Jimmy Graham went down with a knee injury last week. Look for the Seahawks to use the running game a bunch in this one, and Mike Zimmer's Vikings defense is a pretty good one. Minnesota is especially good on defense on their home turf.

The under is 6-0 in the Vikings last 6 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NFC. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following a straight up win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 150 yards or more on the ground last game. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Houston Texans defense may not have started the season playing up to their potential, but they have started doing it in the last few weeks. The Texans defense has been amazing of late. Houston's pass rush is obviously very good with J.J. Watt leading the way, and the Bills offensive line is banged up. That's a bad combination for Tyrod Taylor and this offense. The Houston secondary is elite.

The Buffalo defense has been up and down this year, but I think they can slow a mediocre Houston offense. The Texans have primarily been so good lately because of their defense.

There are a lot of good defensive minded coaches in this game, and neither team has a star quarterback. While the public is betting the over, the line has dropped by a point during the week. Take the under. 

*4 Star Pac 12 Title MONEY Total* The Stanford Cardinal and USC Trojans meet in the Pac 12 title game this Saturday night. USC's defense has been a big disappointment this year. USC ranks number 70 in the nation in total defense this year. They are giving up 400 yards per game. USC gave up more than 40 points three times this year, including their first meeting this year with Stanford.

Stanford's defense isn't very good either. They are 50th in the nation in total defense. Stanford has allowed more than 30 points four times this year. USC has an improved running game since their first meeting with Stanford, and I think their improved balance as an offense will help them find success against Stanford's mediocre defense.

Christian McCaffrey is one of the best game breakers in the nation, and USC gives up a bunch of big plays. Kevin Hogan is a winner who makes big plays when needed. USC has plenty of offensive playmakers. The over is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings between these two teams. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Rivalry Game Total* The Rhode Island Rams and the Providence Friars don't like each other much. How could they? They are obviously very close to each other, and they have now been playing each other every year. Providence has a good team this year led by Kris Dunn. Rhode Island is a tremendous defensive team, and they should make someone else beat them. The Friars defense is very good, and Rhode Island's offense is their weakness. The Rams can't score unless they get to the line a lot, and Providence doesn't foul much. A hard fought close game. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets tried to up the tempo early in the season, but lately they have gone right back to their old style of slowing things down. Tulane is definitely a team that prefers to play at a slow tempo, so I see this game being played in the halfcourt throughout. The Tulane defense is pretty good, and Georgia Tech doesn't have many shooters on their team. Georgia Tech's interior defense is very good, and Tulane isn't accustomed to playing against defenses like this one. I made this total 131 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB MAC MONEYMAKER* The Bowling Green offense is as dynamic as they come, so this isn't an easy bet to make, but there are several reasons I like this one. Bowling Green's rushing defense has improved over the course of the season, and Northern Illinois has a very inexperienced quarterback under center. While I think Northern Illinois will still get plenty of yards on the ground, I think their inability to move it through the air will bog things down a bit in the red zone. Look for Bowling Green's defense to force Northern Illinois into some field goals.

In addition, Northern Illinois has a good coach and I'm going to assume that they know they need to slow the tempo of the game down. The Huskies aren't likely to be able to win a shootout here. They will likely look to run the ball a bunch and use up a lot of clock. 

One final key factor, the public is betting the over here in a big way (75-80%) and yet the total has edged down throughout the week. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Elon Phoenix play a very fast paced game, and only one of their games this year has finished lower than this posted total. FIU has been a team that plays to the tempo of their opponent in the past. I think they'll do that to some degree again here. FIU is shooting better than 43% from behind the three point line this year. Elon isn't good on the defensive end at all. Both teams are pretty good at grabbing offensive rebounds, so second chance points should come pretty frequently. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Total of the Week* The Siena Saints and Manhattan Jaspers met twice last year under the old rules in college basketball (longer shot clock and less fouls), and in those two games the total finished at 166 points and 154 points. Here we get a posted of 148? Manhattan has a very long history of fouling a bunch on defense and getting to the foul line a lot on the offensive end. Siena is that way as well. This game should see a lot of free throws.

Both Siena and Manhattan like to push the tempo, and I think we see a lot of possessions in this game. Barring some very poor shooting numbers, I see this one getting over the total easily. Take the over! *NCAA BB TOP Play Total of the Week* 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oregon State Beavers are terrific at controlling the tempo of a game. Oregon State wins with defense and once they grab the lead they can really take the air out of the ball. Loyola Marymount is missing their best scorer, and this is a team that struggles to score against quality teams to start with. Oregon State controls this game and then slows it down in the second half. I projected this one at 134 points. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Big 10/ACC Challenge CASH* The Iowa Hawkeyes prefer to play a fast tempo. The problem for them is they rarely get to play fast in the Big Ten because most teams in the conference like to slow things down. They'll get their shot to play fast here. Florida State has turned up the tempo in a big way this year with their young and athletic lineup. Rathan-Mayes is turning into one of the best in the nation quickly. Florida State and Iowa are both much better on offense than defense. Both teams are good at getting to the line often. I think this one gets to right around 160. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls offense ranks 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Bulls haven't played as fast this year as many people expected them to under Hoiberg. Chicago is also the #5 ranked team in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Bulls are still very committed on the defensive end. Denver ranks 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Nuggets offense has been particularly bad in the past couple weeks.

The three referees here are very helpful to the under. All three of them have a history of cashing unders more than overs. There is sharp money on this under, and I believe there are plenty of reasons for that.

The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 75 points or less last game. The under 6-0 in the Bulls last 6 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 5-0-1 in the Bulls last 6 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS win. A 32-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Louisville/Michigan State MONEY* The Michigan State Spartans defense has been elite this year. Michigan State isn't allowing opponents any second chance points. Louisville's offense isn't very efficient, so they rely heavily on their ability to get second chance points. I don't think they'll get many in this one, and I see the Cardinals struggling to score. Louisville's defense ranks first in the nation in two point field goal defense, and the Cardinals should make life difficult for Denzel Valentine here. The tempo should be slow with both teams focusing on the defensive end. I had this number at 131. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles and Penn State Nittany Lions have both had a really tough time in the early going this year. Penn State's offense is dreadful without D.J. Newbill. He was the guy everything ran through last year, and without him they look lost. Boston College lost their star in Olivier Hanlan as well. Both teams like to slow the tempo down and I expect this one to stay in the 120's. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals Takedown* The Syracuse Orange have one of the best defenses in the nation every year. This matchup zone is going to give Wisconsin a lot of trouble. Without Kaminsky and Dekker this Badgers offense has struggled a lot so far this year, and now they are going up against the best defense they have played this season. Wisconsin is going to slow the tempo down. They rank 345th out of 351 teams in the nation in terms of tempo. Syracuse prefers to play slow as well. Look for a game played almost solely in the halfcourt. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Cornell Big Red don't play much defense at all, but they do push the pace at every opportunity. Siena has always been a team that prefers to play quickly with Jimmy Patsos as their coach. Siena has a big advantage on the inside here, and I think they'll get a lot of easy baskets around the hoop. Siena's aggressive defense leads to a bunch of fouls, and Cornell should get a lot of free throw attempts in this one. In a game that should be pretty close, free throw attempts put this one over the total. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets started the season out trying to play faster, but they have slowed down the tempo as usual in their last few games. Brian Gregory's team seems unlikely to be able to get Wofford to play fast. Wofford has been one of the slowest paced teams in the country every single year under their current coach. Wofford isn't going to let this tempo get out of control. Both teams have struggled shooting the ball in recent weeks. Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* The Villanova Wildcats defense has been the best in the country so far this year, and it isn't even close. Villanova is only allowing teams to shoot 26% from long range and 36.2% from two point range. Those are just silly good numbers. St. Joe's is a strong defense as well. They are holding opponents to 27.7% from long range and 41.4% from three point range. 

Villanova was a fast paced team a few years ago, but they aren't anymore. The Wildcats have shifted down the pace and are winning with their great ball movement and their great defense. ST. Joe's isn't nearly as talented as Villanova, but they'll fight hard in a rivalry game like this one.

I actually made this total 136 points. I think Villanova's defense gets us this win. Take the under big! 

*4 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* The Iona Gaels are the same type of team every single year. Iona runs and guns. They have a lot of scorers and good shooters on this team. The thing they don't do is give any effort on defense. Fairfield's Sydney Johnson has decided to have the Stags play a fast paced game this year. The Stags are looking to push the pace. They'll get every chance in the world to do that in this game. I see a really fast paced game here where the total gets above 170. Take the over here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB MAC Total* The Marshall Thundering Herd have their distinct style of play. Coach D'Antoni has this team flying up and down the floor and putting up shots as quick as possible. They were the 7th quickest team in the nation last year and they are at #7 so far this year too. Ohio is embracing a much faster paced game this year thanks to a lot of athleticism on their team. The Bobcats are 9th in the nation in free throw attempts, and they should get to the line a lot here. This total is really high for good reason. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals Takedown* The Delaware Blue Hens are a totally different team than they have been in recent years. Delaware is slowing the tempo down and looking to win with defense. The change is largely because they don't have many good scoring options. The Bradley Braves offense is just miserable. They haven't scored more than 60 points in a single game this year. Bradley is shooting 23.3% on three pointers. Delaware isn't much better at 27.8%. Brian Wardle is Bradley's new coach and the Braves are playing hard on defense for him. I made this number 125. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Golden Gophers aren't as good as last year. They lost their top two scorers from last year's team, and I see the Golden Gophers struggling in the halfcourt offense this season. Clemson is the type of team that absolutely makes you play their game. The Tigers are going to slow this game down. Their tempo ranks in the slowest five teams in the country (out of 351 teams). Clemson's defense is excellent, but their offense is subpar. My numbers had this game at 130. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Green Bay Phoenix are playing at the second fastest tempo of any team in the country. Coach Darner has stated he wants this team to be the ultra-fast all year long. They should get their chance to run against an SIU Edwardsville team that isn't good at all defensively. Green Bay's defense has slipped a lot from last year as well. The tempo here should be plenty fast enough and I see both teams getting a lot of trips to the line as well with their aggressive natures on offense. Take the over. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Play of the MONTH* The Boston Celtics are without Marcus Smart right now. That's a key injury for them. Their offense has been less efficient without him in the lineup. The Celtics played on Sunday and could only score 91 points against Orlando. They'll face an even better defense on Monday in Miami.

Miami ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Heat are giving up only 91.7 points per game. Miami is first in the NBA in field goal percentage defense at 40.3%. Boston ranks fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency as well. On offense, the Heat rank 14th in the league in offensive efficiency and Boston ranks 19th. Clearly, the two defenses have the advantage here.

Here is a really interesting statistic. The Boston Celtics are playing at 104.7 possessions per game at home this year (fastest in the NBA). They are playing at 99.1 possesions per game on the road this year (this ranks in the bottom ten in terms of tempo). Miami loves to slow the game down and they should be able to do that in this one. With both a slower tempo and two good defenses, this is a relatively high number. 

The under is 8-0 in the Heat's last 8 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 vs. the NBA Atlantic. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 games following a win by 10 points or more. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 26-0 angle. Take the under big! 

*Note- This number has moved down some since I played this one last night, but I still like this as a 5 star rated play down to 190. Thank you*

*5 Star NFL TOP Play of Week* The Atlanta Falcons offense has been a disappointment all year. Matt Ryan hasn't played well. The offensive line in front of him hasn't protected him well. The Minnesota Vikings have allowed the 7th least amount of passing yards in the NFL. It's no secret that Atlanta needs to be able to throw it effectively to score very many here. 

On the other side, Minnesota is the number one rushing offense in the NFL. They are dead last in the NFL in passing offense. If the Vikings can't run it, they are in serious trouble. Atlanta ranks first in the NFL against the run. They are giving up only 87.4 yards per game on the ground. Adrian Peterson will likely have a tougher time than usual against this strong defensive front. Coach Quinn has done a really nice job with this Falcons defense.

Both defenses present a real challenge for the offenses in this game. 

The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 after a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 November games. The under is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 after an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0-1 in the Falcons last 7 after an ATS loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 on turf. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 250 yards passing or more. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Tennessee Titans have a good young quarterback in Marcus Mariota. The problem for them is he doesn't have enough weapons around him right now. Mariota has no playmakers on the outside to take advantage of the Raiders weakness, which is their secondary. Tennessee is primarily a running team now, but Oakland's rushing defense has been solid of late. 

On the other side, Tennessee has the sixth ranked defense in the NFL. The Titans defense has been underrated all year. The way Oakland moves it most frequently is through the air with rookie Amari Cooper on the outside and budding star Derek Carr under center. The Titans secondary is excellent though, and they rank third in the NFL in pass defense.

The under is 6-2 in the Titans last 8 home games. Look for a lower scoring game than expected. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Houston Texans and the New Orleans Saints both like to get a lot of plays off quickly. That should mean both offenses get a lot of possessions in this one. Houston's defense has been inconsistent this year. Drew Brees and the Saints offense has gotten much better over the course of the season. The Saints should be able to come up with some big plays in this one.

The New Orleans defense has been the worst defense in the league by a mile so far this year. Yes, I know Rob Ryan was fired, but I don't think there is going to be a quick fix here. Houston's offense has playmakers, and I expect DeAndre Hopkins to have a big day on the outside against Brandon Browner. 

The over is 4-1 in the Saints last 5 road games. The over is 5-2 in Houston's last 7 home games. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls defense held a very good Memphis offense to only four field goals last weekend. Temple has struggle with offenses that have a good runner at quarterback, but UConn doesn't have that. In fact, UConn's starting QB is listed as questionable here. Even with him, the team is averaging less than 20 points per game against a relatively weak schedule. UConn has been much more competitive this year thanks to their ability to shut down the running game. Temple's offense isn't dynamic, and UConn should be able to slow them down. Both defenses have a clear advantage. Take the under. *Note- This has moved down since I picked it earlier this week- I would play this for 3 stars at anything below 42. Thank you.*

*5 Star CFB TOP Play of the Week* The Vanderbilt Commodores have been a great team for under bettors this year. Vanderbilt hasn't been able to get an offense going all year, but the defense is much better than it was a year ago. Coach Mason has a strong defensive background and the team has taken to that identity this year. Tennessee has played well in recent weeks. I had the under in their game last week against Missouri and the Volunteers did all they needed to do to win against a bad offense. I expect the same from them in this one.

The Volunteers clearly have the much more talented team, and I expect them to win. Having said that, these rivalry games can be closer than expected, and Vanderbilt's defensive numbers are impressive. The Volunteers may well be needing to kick field goals and win in an ugly contest. Vanderbilt isn't going to be able to get much of anything going offensively. 

The under is 7-0 in Vanderbilt's last 7 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 November games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 275 yards or less last game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after throwing for 170 yards or less last game. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Volunteers last 4 November games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground last game. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 between these teams. 

Take the under big! CFB Top Play of the Week 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves rushed for nearly 500 yards against New Mexico State last year! That's video game type numbers, and I won't be surprised if they come close to reaching it again. New Mexico State ranks third worst in the country in run defense and they are allowing more than six yards per carry. The Red Wolves offense likes to play fast and they have a good runner at QB in Knighten and two good RB's. New Mexico State's offense has been much better in recent weeks, and Arkansas State isn't very good defensively. Expect a shootout. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Big 10 Total* The Illinois Fighting Illini and Northwestern Wildcats are pretty similar teams in that they both struggle on offense and are much improved on defense. Northwestern obviously has the much better record, but the line here indicates Las Vegas expects a close game throughout. The forecast calls for 20-25 mph winds through the game, which will likely mean even more running than there would have been. A running clock with a bunch of running plays is great news for under bettors. Both defensive lines are strong. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Syracuse Orange offense has been a mess all year. The Boston College offense is an absolute disaster. While Syracuse's defense isn't nearly as good as they have been in recent years, they don't really need to be to hold down Boston College. Boston College hasn't scored more than 17 points in a game vs. an FBS opponent all year. There's no reason to expect it here either. At the same time, Syracuse is so bad that Boston College is the favorite in this game. There are plenty of reasons to expect a really sloppy game where neither team can get going. 

The under is 4-0 in Boston College's last 4 November games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on turf. The under is 10-1 in Boston College's last 11 following a loss. A 20-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Georgia Bulldogs defense has been very good this year. They have given up 6 points or less on three occasions. They've allowed 14 points or less in six games this year. Georgia Tech's offense has been really struggling to score touchdowns this year. The Yellow Jackets confidence is extremely low right now, and Georgia's defense is likely to make it tough for them here. On the other side, Georgia has no passing game. The Bulldogs have a good running game, but when you are completely one-dimensional it makes you much easier to defend. In rivalry games like this one, we typically see lower scoring games.

The under is 5-0 in Georgia's last 5. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 20 points or less. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after giving up 170 yards or less through the air last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 November games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on grass. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after giving up more than 200 rushing yards. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 40-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Tigers and the Ohio State Buckeyes are both big name programs that are down quite a bit this year. Ohio State has lost to UT Arlington and Louisiana Tech in their last two games. Memphis lost to UT Arlington lost game as well. 

One reason I like this total is Ohio State has played at a tempo of 69 possessions in every single game they have played so far this year. Their consistency at slowing the game down has been great. The only thing that has changed has been their opponents shooting percentages. Memphis shoots 21.5% from three point range, and the Tigers are much better on defense than offense. This game is played at a neutral site in Florida, and neutral sites generally mean worse shooting numbers.

I see this line as being a few points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star Packers/Bears Thanksgiving Night CASH* The Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears meet in Green Bay on Thursday night. The weather in this one should play a major role. There is supposed to be rain changing to sleet with winds of 25 mph or more during this game. That's a really bad weather forecast for points. Jay Cutler and the Bears offense weren't likely to have much of an edge anyways, and the weather should hurt them a lot. Green Bay will likely be more conservative with their play calling on offense.

The under is 5-0 in the Bears last 5 on grass. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 following a win. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. *Note- This line has been moving down with the weather forecast being nasty. I would play this for 4 stars down to 45 and for 3 stars at any price below that. Thank you*

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Dons have decided to slow things down in their last few games, and it has brought them more success. UCSB will be glad to play a slower pace tonight, and UCSB has been struggling badly from outside. UCSB is shooting 23% from the three point range on the season. San Francisco previously played a fast tempo and that's why we are getting value on the under in this one. Take the under. *Note- Shorter writeups than normal today due to traveling for the holidays- Happy Thanksgiving!*

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Murray State Racers lost their star from last year (Cameron Payne) and without him the offense isn't even close to as good. Murray State is working hard on defense though. Opponents have been held below 40% three times this year. The Racers are no longer running as they have in the past. Weber State is a slow it down team because of their strength in the post. I had this one at 132. Take the under. *Note- Shorter writeups than normal today due to traveling for the holidays- Happy Thanksgiving!*

*3 Star Under* The North Dakota State Bison and Montana Grizzlies have both been good under teams for me in the past. With the same coaches back this year, I'm going to go with the under here. Both teams prefer to play a slow it down tempo and both teams aren't nearly as efficient on the offensive end this year after losing their best scorers from a year ago. Take the under. *Note- Shorter writeups than normal today due to traveling for the holidays- Happy Thanksgiving!*

*4 Star NCAA BB Total* The Pepperdine Waves play tremendous defense. They have a long athletic team who makes it very difficult to score. Pepperdine often gets bogged down on offense themselves, but they have been winning a lot of games due to their hard work on defense. Drake plays at an extremely slow tempo, and the Bulldogs will be playing against the best defense they have played this year. Take the under. *Note- Shorter writeups than normal today due to traveling for the holidays- Happy Thanksgiving!*

*4 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The Denver Pioneers have been one of the ten slowest teams in terms of tempo every single year for a long time. They aren't going to speed up for anyone. Idaho State has played faster teams so far this year so they have high scoring games, but that should change in this one. I had this total at 129 points so I see plenty of value for a play. Take the under. *Note- Shorter writeups than normal today due to traveling for the holidays- Happy Thanksgiving!*

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Weber State Wildcats have a good team this year, and it starts with a very strong frontcourt. Weber State has slowed their tempo down in the past couple years. When Damian Lillard was at Weber State, they were a team who played quickly, but now that their strength is in the post instead of at the guard they are playing a halfcourt style. 

Drake has had two games go into overtime already, which has skewed their numbers to make them look like a high scoring team. Drake actually ranks in the bottom 25 teams in the nation (there are 351 overall) in terms of pace. The Bulldogs will be looking to slow this game down, and Weber State is likely to be happy with that as well.

The under is 19-7 in Drake's last 26 games at a neutral site. Shooting percentages are generally a little lower at neutral sites. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Value* Ohio State has seemingly decided to slow the tempo of the game down this year. With an athletic roster, I'm not really sure why they are doing it, but that's been the game plan so far. Ohio State lost at home to UT Arlington last game, and now they come back to play Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs like to speed the game up, but so do Mt. St. Mary's and UT Arlington. Ohio State didn't let either of those teams play fast as they prefer to. Look for the Buckeyes defense to improve following that ugly loss to UT Arlington. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Cal Golden Bears have a very athletic team this year and they will look to get up and down much more than they have in past years. With Brown and Rabb added to an already talented roster, Cal has the second most talent in the Pac 12 behind Arizona. The Golden Bears are likely to have a bunch of success on offense here. Cal was flat in their last game, a win over East Carolina. Coach Martin's team should be ready for this one. Sam Houston State has been torched on defense by both SMU and Southern Illinois. It should happen again here. This total is a few points too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego State Aztecs are a grind it out team. Steve Fisher gets his team to work hard on the defensive end like no other coach in the country can. No matter who comes to play for Fisher, they will work hard on defense, or they won't see the floor. San Diego State still slows the game down, and they still have trouble scoring. The Aztecs lost at home to Little Rock last game. The Aztecs should show up ready to play here, and I think that will mean some great defense. East Carolina has been a good under team in recent years so I like this matchup to be very low scoring. The under is 36-16 in San Diego State's last 52 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* I successfully played the 'over' with the Knicks in their first two games of the season. Derek Fisher talked a lot in the offseason about the Knicks picking up the pace this year. They did just that in the first week of the season. Gradually though, as the season has gone on the Knicks have slowed their tempo back down. New York was at nearly a 100 possessions per game tempo in the first week. In their past 3 games, they are at a tempo of less than 95 possessions per game. That's a very big difference. Miami is ranked second in the NBA in defensive efficiency and they play at the fourth slowest pace in the league. Look for a slow tempo and a game that stays low scoring.

The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning record. The under is 10-1 in their last 11 games overall. A 20-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late NIGHT BAILOUT* The Stanford Cardinal lost their best two players from last year's team. Stanford is likely to have trouble scoring this season. This is their first road game of the season, and with a young team that should prove difficult. St. Mary's also lost a bunch of talent, and the Gaels are going to be way down this year. Randy Bennett is a good coach and he is going to slow this game down and play a halfcourt style that the Gaels prefer. I made this number 140 points, and I think there is quite a bit of value here. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Arizona Cardinals offense has been dynamic this year. Carson Palmer gets to play against his old team here, and I expect Arizona to move the ball well. The Bengals defense hasn't played against too many elite offenses yet, and they will on Sunday. While the Bengals defense is solid, I don't think they are as good as the numbers make them look so far this season.

On the other end, Arizona's defense has been giving up quite a few big plays. Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense definitely looked bad last weekend, but the Bengals offense has been very good overall this year. Tyler Eifert had 3 critical drops last week, but Eifert has been a huge difference maker for the offense this season. I expect him to have a big game in a good matchup for him.

Expect a close game where both offenses move the ball throughout the game. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* SMU and Yale are both defensive teams who like to slow the game down. This total is a few points too high. I made this one 135 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Oakland Raiders passing attack has been really fantastic this year. Oakland struggled against one of the best defenses in the NFL last week, but look at how they have done against other defenses this year. Oakland scored 35 points on Pittsburgh. They scored 34 against a good Jets defense. They scored 37 against Baltimore and 37 against San Diego. Detroit's defense is giving up 29 points per game.

The Detroit Lions can't run the ball, but they can throw it. Detroit has one of the best receivers in the game in Calvin Johnson, and no one in this Oakland secondary can slow him down. The Raiders secondary has given up the second most yards per game through the air in the NFL. Matt Stafford should throw for a ton of yards here. 

With both teams airing it out and moving it right down the field, I'll suggest a play on the over in this one. Take the over.

*4 Star Pac 12 Total* The Washington State Cougars offense is a well-oiled machine with Luke Falk at quarterback. He's the perfect fit for a Mike Leach offense. Washington State doesn't run the ball because they don't need to. Colorado's secondary has been picked apart all year, and it should happen again here. Falk has a bunch of great wide receivers, and Colorado doesn't have the secondary to keep them in check.

Washington State's defense has been giving up a ton of yards, and Colorado's backup quarterback is a guy the team is very high on. He'll start here and I think he has a good opportunity to do well for the Buffaloes against a mediocre at best defense. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The 76ers are dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, and it isn't even close! Philadelphia is shooting 30% form three and 41.7% overall from the floor. Miami ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Heat have the ability to hold Philadelphia to a very low number here. Miami is also playing at a slow tempo and Philadelphia is pushing the pace less this year than they have in the past. 

The under is 9-1 in the Heat's last 10. The under is 4-0 in their last vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star College Football TOP Play of Week* The Boston College Eagles have the number one ranked defense in the nation. Why do they have such a bad record? Because their offense is awful. 

Boston College is giving up only 2.12 yards per carry this year, which is truly an amazing number. The Eagles defense has allowed 14 points or less in 6 of their 10 games this season. Steve Addazio's team works extremely hard on the defensive end.

Boston College has one of the worst offenses in the country. How bad are they? Well they have scored 10 points or less in 5 of their 8 games this year against FBS opponents. They haven't scored more than 17 points against an FBS opponent this year! 

Notre Dame's defense isn't great, but they should look great against Boston College's offense. The Fighting Irish and the Eagles both play at a slow tempo. We should see the game clock moving most of the time with a lot of running the football here. 

The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 9-1 in Boston College's last 10 following a loss. A 15-1 angle. Take the under big! NCAA FB TOP Play of the Week

*4 Star Play Under* The Rhode Island Rams are without their star player, EC Matthews. Matthews is out for the year with an injury. He was their best offensive threat. Without him, the Rams will still be a solid team, and it will be because of the tremendous defense they play. Cleveland State hasn't been able to score against Akron or Malone College, so how are they going to score here? I think Cleveland State will struggle to pass 50 points here. An ugly game between two teams that are good on the defensive end. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The Missouri Tigers defense has been great all year and their offense has been awful all year. For some reason, Missouri's offensive coaches have decided to continue to try to throw the ball with Drew Lock at quarterback despite him having next to no success all year. The running game doesn't get enough carries. Tennessee's defense is pretty good against the run, and Missouri will struggle to score.

Tennessee's offense has been very inconsistent this year. The Volunteers are likely to face a very spirited Missouri defense though in what is Gary Pinkel's last home game coaching the Missouri Tigers. This defense has been nasty at home.

The weather here looks like it could be helpful too. The wind will gust to 25 miles per hour, which definitely hurts the offense.

The under is 3-0-1 in the Volunteers last 4 November games. The under is 5-0 in the Tigers last 5 after giving up less than 100 rushing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 SEC games. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Oregon State Beavers starting quarterback is out. Their second string quarterback has struggled and he is dinged up. He will either play hurt or they'll be on their third string quarterback. Washington's defense has impressed me all year. The Huskies stop unit is unlikely to give up much of anything against this Oregon State offense. I'll be very surprised if Oregon tops 14 points. 

Washington's offense has been really inconsistent this year, and traditionally Oregon State's defense plays much better at home. The Beavers have spoken about their poor performances against Washington of late and they want to make amends for those showings. The defense should show improvement in this game.

The under is 7-0 in the Huskies last 7 road games. The under is 7-0 in Washington's last 7 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 2-0 in Oregon State's last 2 home games. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Total CRUSHER* The Oregon State Beavers and UC Santa Barbara Gauchos have both played teams who are very fast in tempo so far this year. They won't be playing an opponent who wants to run in this one. Oregon State is all about defense and UC Santa Barbara has been one of the slowest paced teams in the nation on a consistent basis.

There is a lot of value on this play because of their high scoring games against teams like California (fast paced) and Iona (very fast paced). I had this number at 131 points, which makes this my biggest play of the college basketball season thus far. Take the under big! 

*4 Star Play Over* The Old Dominion Monarchs have steadily improved their offensive production for the year. Old Dominion's defense has been awful all year. They are allowing 34 points per game. Southern Miss' offense averages 38.6 per contest, and the Golden Eagles are one of the most improved teams in the nation this year. They average 5.22 yards per carry, and Mullens is a very good quarterback in this system. Look for a lot of big plays from both offenses. Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes defense has been elite against the run, but they have given up a lot of big plays in the passing game. Josh Rosen and the UCLA wideouts should be able to take advantage of that. Utah's offense has big play ability, and I think this UCLA defense has been one of the most overrated units in the country this season. They are now without their best two players in the front seven, and Utah should move the ball a lot in this one. Weather won't be an issue here and I'll take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The North Carolina Tar Heels are playing some tremendous football of late. I don't think they have gotten the credit they deserve. North Carolina has always had a great offense, but this year their defense has stepped up in a big way. The Tar Heels secondary has turned into one of the best in the country. Gene Chizik is doing great work with this unit. 

Virginia Tech's defense has had a lot of injuries this year, but they are still a solid unit, especially against the pass. Bud Foster will dial up some unique blitz packages to confuse the Tar Heels offense here. Virginia Tech is playing their final home game, which means this is Frank Beamer's last game in Blacksburg. Expect a spirited effort from the Hokies defense.

The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two at Virginia Tech. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings overall. A 12-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB National TV Total* The Virginia Cavaliers put up 82 points last night against Bradley, but it wasn't because they have picked up the tempo. Virginia just shot an amazing percentage from the floor. Bradley's defense offered little resistance, but Long Beach State is decent on defense. Virginia's defense is far better than anything Long Beach State generally sees. This line has been pushed up by 6.5 points from the open. That line move makes this under a good value in my eyes. 

Virginia is still the halfcourt team that plays great defense, and I think some of their early season numbers have skewed this number too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The Alabama Crimson Tide are coming off a humbling loss at the hands of the Dayton Flyers. Alabama is playing with a much quicker tempo this year, and Louisiana Lafayette has been one of the fastest paced teams in the nation with Bob Marlin as their head coach. 

Alabama is looking to use full court pressure to speed up the game, and I think Lafayette will be glad to play that type of game here. Lafayette has a very good frontcourt, and I think they'll get a lot of second chance points on offensive rebounds against a relatively small Alabama frontcourt.

I had this one lined at 158 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks have always liked to play at a quick tempo under coach John Cooper. Most of the teams inside the Mid American Conference slow the game down. Miami will get their chance to play a quick paced game when they take on Lipscomb on Friday night. Lipscomb has been a team that looks to play fast for several years in a row now.

With the new tighter rules we are seeing about four fouls more per game than we have seen in the past. Both of these teams have been teams that do a good job getting to the line in the past two years. They have also both been teams that commit a bunch of fouls. Look for a lot of trips to the charity stripe throughout this game.

My numbers made this game 154 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SMU Mustangs play at a methodical pace under Coach Larry Brown. He's suspended now, but SMU isn't going to change the way they play. Stanford lost their two best players from last year, and this Stanford team needed overtime to beat Wisconsin Green Bay at home earlier this year. I don't think Stanford can control the pace of this game, and I think they'll struggle to score against an SMU squad that makes you would hard for every bucket. Look for SMU to grab a lead in this game and work the clock in the second half. I had this number at 141. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rice Owls lost their best long range shooter from last year, and that's about all Rice could do well last season. The Oregon State Beavers have a very good coach in Wayne Tinkle and he is all about slowing the game down and winning with defense. Oregon State doesn't have many good scoring options, but everyone on this team can play defense. Rice likes to slow the game down as well. This is one of those lines that has gotten out of hand because of the success of early season overs. As the line has been bet up, there's just too much value here to pass up. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wisconsin Green Bay has a new coach who has totally changed the look of the team. Their goal is to be one of the fastest paced teams in the country this year. Georgia Tech has worked all offseason on trying to be a faster paced team. Brian Gregory's team put up 116 points in their season opener. Wisconsin Green Bay just gave up 103 points last game to East Tennessee State. I think the Yellow Jackets put up a really big number here and the pace of the game means Green Bay should score plenty as well. I made this line 164. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Creighton Blue Jays have a lot of offensive weapons, and they've made it known in the offseason that they want to get out and run. Here's their chance! Indiana loves to run, and the Hoosiers could put up a really big number here. Indiana ranks as the number one team in the nation in offensive efficiency so far this year. Creighton doesn't have many defensive stoppers on their roster. The Blue Jays will get open looks here, because Indiana's defense has been a problem for the past three years. Look for both teams to knock down a lot of threes and this game to go over the posted total. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels are going to be running a lot more this year. Dave Rice said in the preseason that his team has extensively practiced during the offseason to be much faster paced than a year ago. They have the athleticism to beat most teams down the floor. Southern Utah is always glad to play a fast paced game under Coach Nick Robinson. Southern Utah's defense has been among the worst in the nation in each of the last three years. They foul a bunch as well, which will be helpful to the over in this game. A quick tempo with a lot of trips to the charity stripe. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Best Bet Total* The Northwestern Wildcats and Fairfield Stags play a similar style of basketball. Both look to slow down the game and work down the shot clock. Northwestern is without Jershon Cobb this year and he was their best playmaker a year ago. They are also without Vic Law who was slated to be their best player this season. Law was injured before the season. Fairfield played a 70-57 game against Yale earlier this year. Northwestern played a 79-57 game against UMass Lowell.

Because overs have done so well so far this year, I think we'll be able to catch games with inflated lines like this one in some spots. All totals are being bet up several points. While the new rules do make higher scoring games more frequent, teams like Fairfield and Northwestern are unlikely to fundamentally change the way they play the game. This total has gone up 9 points since the opener. That's way too much in my opinion. Take the under big!