Sports Picks & Predictions

All Sports Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-19-20	Wright State v. Detroit UNDER 146.5		93-70	Loss	-107	11 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Wright State has a lot more length and physicality in the frontcourt this year. When he was asked before the year what would be the most different about this year's Wright State team Coach Scott Nagy said they would be much better on defense thanks to their frontcourt. Wright State still plays relatively quickly, but they are better on defense than on offense. Detroit has slowed their pace down a bit from a couple years ago. This Detroit team isn't great on defense by any means, but they are certainly improving on that end. I had this game totaled at 142, so I see value on the under here. Take the under.
12-19-20	Gonzaga v. Iowa OVER 168		99-88	Win	100	9 h 39 m	Show
3 Star Play Over This isn't the type of bet I would usually make betting a high over in a neutral court contest. Iowa and Gonzaga aren't your typical teams though. These are the top two offenses in the country. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 in the country in tempo as well. Luka Garza is nearly unstoppable, and Gonzaga definitely doesn't have anyone who can stop him. The Hawkeyes have multiple very good outside shooters. Gonzaga can push in transition with Suggs and the athletic frontcourt players as well as anyone in the country. Iowa used a full court press quite a bit in their last game, and I expect that to show up here again. The Hawkeyes halfcourt defense is terrible, and Gonzaga will expose them. Gonzaga's defense was a question mark to Coach Few before the year. They'll have trouble here. Take the over.
12-18-20	Weber State v. Portland State OVER 147.5		94-66	Win	100	19 h 4 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Portland State Vikings had a low scoring game against Washington State last game. I think that gives us a good chance to get a solid number to play the over here. This total is the same as the Portland State game against Washington State game was. Washington State is an under team, and Weber State has a far weaker defense. Weber State picked up a lot of solid junior college transfers in the offseason. They had an ugly shooting performance against Boise State last game, but Boise State will make a lot of offenses look bad this year. The lowest scoring game in the last ten meetings between these two is a total of 151 points. This posted total has been set lower than that. Portland State will continue pressing and running at every opportunity and they will have a lot of high scoring games this year. Take the over here.
12-18-20	Oregon v. USC OVER 62		31-24	Loss	-107	52 h 10 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Two explosive offenses face off on Friday night in southern California. Slovis is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and this Oregon defense has been a big disappointment this year. Oregon has allowed 5.73 YPP on the season, and this may be the most talented offense they have faced yet. Oregon's offense has been better than expected this year. The Ducks rank 9th in YPP in the nation on offense. They have 30 plays of 20 yards or more in only five games. They have a ton of speed in the backfield. Conditions look perfect for this game, and I see both offenses with clear advantages. This should be a close game that turns into a shootout. Take the over. This line varies significantly from book to book- I would rate this a 4 star play up to 64 and 3 star at anything higher than that.
12-17-20	San Francisco v. Oregon UNDER 146.5		64-74	Win	100	18 h 28 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Oregon Ducks have underachieved on defense according to my expectations this year. They have overachieved versus my expectations on offense. Oregon losing Pritchard has to hurt their offense on the whole. On the defensive side, Oregon should be about where they were a year ago. San Francisco has been really impressive this season so far. The Dons defense has impressed me in their wins over Nevada and Virginia. San Francisco should be competitive here. Both of these teams are good on the defensive glass and that should limit second chance scoring. This line is a few points too high. Take the under.
12-16-20	Mercer v. Georgia State OVER 152		81-88	Win	100	15 h 28 m	Show
4 Star Play Over These teams met on November 30th at Mercer. The final score was 86-69 and the game was played to a blistering fast pace of 79 possessions. I don't see any reasons to expect anything different here. Mercer uses traps and aggressive defense which keeps the opposition moving. Georgia State ranks among the 25 fastest teams in the country in terms of pace. They will be more than happy to run. Mercer is a much better shooting team this year with Ross Cummings on the roster. The Bears have scored 77 points or more in every game this season. I expect both offenses to look good here. Take the over.
12-16-20	Northeastern v. Syracuse OVER 144.5		56-62	Loss	-110	12 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Syracuse Orange sped up a bit last year from the year before. They have sped up a lot more this season from last year. They have a lot more speed in the backcourt and they have more options as 3 point shooters on the outside also. This Orange team is likely to keep running through the season. Northeastern played two games against UMass and they ran in both of those games. While they likely won't play all that fast through the year, I don't think they can stall here too much because they are likely to be losing throughout. Take the over here.
12-16-20	St Francis NY v. Central Connecticut State OVER 153	Top	59-78	Loss	-110	11 h 36 m	Show
5 Star CBB Hidden GEM TOP Total of the WEEK These two teams played on Tuesday and the final score was 91-86 St. Francis. That game was played to a ridiculous fast pace of 82 possessions. If they play at that pace again, both teams could average a very weak 0.94 points per possession and this one would go over the total. This game might be a bit slower, but these are two weak defenses. It was no fluke that there was a really high scoring game between these two. The last two meetings before yesterday for these two teams were 169 points and 164 points. I don't know what would make the oddsmakers set such a low total on a game like this. These teams have proven that they play at a track meet pace when they face off against each other. My numbers make this game quite a bit higher than this. Take the over. TOP Rated play.
12-15-20	Indiana State v. St. Louis OVER 140		59-78	Loss	-105	16 h 21 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Travis Ford has picked up the pace in a big way for this St. Louis team. I'm happy to see them push the gas pedal down. This is a team that is at their best when they are in transition and getting to the basket and drawing fouls. They should be able to do that against an Indiana State team who fouls a lot and can struggle in transition defense. Indiana State played a high scoring game against Purdue (typically a lower scoring team). The Sycamores played very fast in that game. Indiana State has a very good guard in Tyreke Key. They should be able to get to the line too against a St. Louis defense that is very aggressive. The tempo of this game should be quick enough to get this one past the posted total unless the shooting numbers are very poor. Take the over.
12-15-20	Southern Miss v. Lamar UNDER 134		66-63	Win	100	16 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Gabe Watson was the top scorer for Southern Miss last year and he left the team in the offseason. Jay Ladner's team is playing significantly slower this year than it did last year (and they were already slow last year). It appears he is trying to hide their poor offense and lean on the defense to keep them in games. Lamar lacks the outside shooting to make Southern Miss pay for sagging back in the paint and trying to keep people away from the rim. Lamar is shooting less than 25% from 3 point range on the season. Lamar's defense does a good job forcing a lot of turnovers and wasted trips down the floor. Southern Miss is very prone to those problems. Take the under.
12-15-20	Loyola-Chicago v. Wisconsin OVER 127.5		63-77	Win	100	6 h 44 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Wisconsin played two games all of last year (31 games) with a tempo of 70 possessions or more. In their five games so far this year, three of them have been 70 possessions or more. Wisconsin is using only 16.6 seconds on average of the shot clock compared to 19.9 seconds of the shot clock last year. The Badgers will likely slow back down a bit, but this total is priced as if they are playing as slow or even slower than last year. Loyola (Chicago) is a good offensive team. They added a very good offensive transfer from Oakland, Braden Norris. They now have a plethora of good outside shooters. The Ramblers have one big weakness as a team and that is defending the 3 point line. Wisconsin has been an above average team for many years in a row from beyond the arc. The Badgers should be able to get a lot of open looks from three in this one. This number has dropped enough that I see value on the over. Take the over here.
12-15-20	New Orleans v. UL - Lafayette UNDER 151		63-73	Win	100	15 h 58 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns have improved a lot on defense this year. Why? The main reason is Theo Akwuba on the inside. The 6'11 big man is a good defensive rebounder and a guy who can swat a lot of shots in the paint. Louisiana didn't have anyone like him last year and opponents frequently got to the hoop against this team. New Orleans takes far too many midrange jumpers for my liking. New Orleans also turns the ball over a bunch. Expect a lot of wasted possessions from them. They will improve on defense this year since their frontcourt is healthier than it was last year. These two teams already played this year. It was a 66-63 final. This one shouldn't be that low since the shooting numbers were bad in that one, but I expect a bunch of turnovers again and I like the value here. Take the under.
12-15-20	Clemson v. Virginia Tech UNDER 129.5		60-66	Win	100	4 h 14 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Last year when these two teams met the final total was 128 points. Clemson is much better on defense this year than they were a year ago. The Tigers rank second behind only Texas Tech in defensive efficiency so far this year. They have completely shut down Mississippi State, Maryland, and Alabama already this season. Virginia Tech ranks as one of the 25 slowest paced teams in the country. The Hokies are a top 50 defense in the country as well. They have scored 64 points or less in regulation in three of their last four games. Offensively, this is a team that can go through some slumps. Clemson's offense has struggled year after year under head coach Brad Brownell. Clemson has been inefficient every single season, and I would expect the same this year. Take the under.
12-15-20	Houston Baptist v. Rice UNDER 157		79-90	Loss	-110	11 h 20 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Houston Baptist Huskies lost their top three offensive players from a year ago. Houston Baptist was awful on defense last year and pretty good on offense. They are much weaker on offense this year. Yes, they are still bad on defense. However, Houston Baptist is clearly playing slower than last year. They are using more than a second per possession more on average already this year. Rice also lost a bunch of their outside shooters from last year. The Owls are improved on the defensive end, but they are weaker on offense this season. This isn't a game I'm excited to bet the under in, because Houston Baptist unders are tough to take. Still, it is one where I am off the market by enough that I have to play the under here because I see enough value. Take the under here.
12-14-20	William & Mary v. George Washington OVER 148		85-84	Win	100	18 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The George Washington Colonials averaged 18.9 seconds per possession last year. They are playing much faster this year. George Washington is averaging only 14.9 seconds per possession so far this season. George Washington's games have averaged 154 points so far this year. They have played only one game this year that has stayed under this posted total. William & Mary has played only one game this year. The Tribe lost a 82-78 decision against Old Dominion. Old Dominion is a slow paced team with a solid defense. William & Mary is loaded with good shooters, and this is an efficient offense every year. They haven't finished outside the top 31 in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense since 2012. At the same time, they aren't very good on the defensive end. Look for George Washington to push the pace here, and this total is a few points too low. Take the over.
12-13-20	Portland State v. Washington State UNDER 147.5		60-69	Win	100	13 h 42 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Portland State isn't a team I am looking to take unders with very often, but this number is too high from the oddsmakers when they are up against Washington State. Kyle Smith's Washington State team is far better on defense than offense. The Cougars are also going to look to slow the game down. Portland State's single biggest weapon on offense is offensive rebounding. Washington State has been a good defensive rebounding team the last couple seasons. I made this number quite a few points lower than this, but I'm going to keep this as a 3 star rated play because Portland State games can have a lot of variance with their pressure style and a lot of fouls. Take the under.
12-13-20	Jets v. Seahawks UNDER 47		3-40	Win	100	86 h 59 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Seattle Seahawks offense has really come back down to earth in recent weeks. After last week's loss at home against the Giants, Pete Carroll said the Seahawks need to run the football a lot more and get back to giving the ball to Chris Carson a lot more. I don't understand that strategy, especially against the Jets. New York is third in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. If the Seahawks want to run the ball consistently here and play as slow as they have been playing in recent weeks, I think that gives a lot more value to the under. The Jets offense is averaging 5.0 YPP at home and only 4.4 YPP on the road. The Seahawks defense is clearly much better with Jamal Adams and Carlos Dunlap on the field. Adams plays against his old team here and he should be ready to go. The weather report calls for rain here and that could lead to an even more conservative game plan from each team. Take the under here.
12-13-20	Maryland-Baltimore County v. Coppin State OVER 144		66-49	Loss	-110	11 h 7 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Coppin State Eagles play at an extremely fast pace. Juan Dixon's team ranks 4th in the nation in overall tempo so far this year. They are averaging 77 possessions per contest. UMBC decided before the season that they wanted to play much quicker than a year ago. Coach Ryan Odom thought it would help the offense be more efficient and have more constant motion. So far he has been right. UMBC is shooting the ball much better from the floor so far this season. These two teams have played each of the last three seasons. The final totals in those games have been 155, 131, and 163 points. UMBC is playing significantly faster than they were in any of those seasons. Coppin State doesn't shoot the ball well, but they have faced a lot of defenses that are significantly better than UMBC as well. Take the over here.
12-13-20	Air Force v. Drake UNDER 130.5		53-81	Loss	-110	10 h 7 m	Show
3 Star Play Under I'm going to keep playing Air Force unders unless I think their opposition is a great over team. Joe Scott's Air Force team is going to rank in the bottom five in the nation in tempo this year. They will run the Princeton offense and use up the clock every time down the floor. Drake is capable of high or low scoring games. I do think Drake is likely to win this game, but they have shown in the past that they are willing to slow the pace down when they are ahead in the second half. Take the under here.
12-13-20	Titans v. Jaguars OVER 52		31-10	Loss	-110	10 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Titans and Jaguars meet up on Sunday afternoon. The Titans beat the Jaguars 33-31 earlier this year. The two teams had 6.0 and 6.5 yards per play in that game. The Jaguars have quite a few injuries on the defensive side now. I think they are a bit weaker on defense than they were in that first matchup. Tennessee is a really good offense. They have a great running back in Henry. They also have very good wide receivers and an efficient quarterback in Tannehill. Smith is a good offensive coordinator for them also. I don't think Jacksonville can do much of anything to slow them down here. Mike Glennon has done a decent job at quarterback for the Jaguars. Jacksonville does have some decent pieces on the outside to throw the ball to. The Titans have absolutely no pass rush, and I think the Jaguars will be able to move the ball through the air pretty well here. Both teams play much faster than the NFL average, and this total isn't all that high in today's NFL. Take the over.
12-12-20	San Diego State v. BYU UNDER 49.5		14-28	Win	100	68 h 52 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The San Diego State Aztecs offense is awful. San Diego State picked up a brutal 2.6 yards per play on offense against Colorado two weeks ago. They then followed it up by picking up only 3.4 yards per play against Colorado State. San Diego State has absolutely no passing game, so if they are going to move the ball it will have to be on the ground. That makes this a hard matchup for them since the strength of the BYU defense is their run defense. BYU is 16th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. BYU's offense is a very good unit, but San Diego State ranks first in the nation in yards per play allowed this season. The Aztecs front seven is excellent and they should be able to get some pressure on Wilson here. The Cougars will score their points here, but they are moving slowly and it should take some time. I see both defenses forcing some field goals here, and with two teams who play slowly and do run the football quite a bit, I think this total is a few points too high. Take the under.
12-12-20	NC-Wilmington v. Ole Miss OVER 139		58-78	Loss	-109	15 h 54 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The UNC Wilmington Seahawks are going to play faster under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. He learned under Kevin Keatts, and he is running the same system Keatts ran here. UNC Wilmington is aggressive taking the ball to the basket and getting to the line a lot. They will have a tough matchup here against Ole Miss and a good interior defense, but since they are likely to be playing from behind I expect the tempo to be very quick from them. Also, I think Wilmington is likely to press at least some in this game. Ole Miss will use their 1-3-1 zone to force turnovers this year, and they are going to look to score in transition off those turnovers. They had 75 points with 8 minutes left against Jackson State before letting off the gas to be as classy as possible. UNC Wilmington is a couple notches better than Jackson State, but the Seahawks will likely give up some easy transition buckets here. Both teams are teams I would project to be good at getting to the line, and with a lower total like this I think that can be really important. Take the over.
12-12-20	Dayton v. Mississippi State UNDER 135		85-82	Loss	-110	19 h 10 m	Show
4 Star CBB Early Bird Special The Dayton Flyers lost Obi Toppin from last year's team. Dayton is still a very good team, but the Flyers aren't even close to as efficient as last year. Dayton has struggled to score at times so far this year. Dayton has scored 66, 64, and 66 points in their games against Eastern Illinois, SMU, and Northern Kentucky. None of those teams are great on defense. Mississippi State lost their top two offensive players from last year. The Bulldogs always play slowly and they are doing that again this year. This season they will be unable to shoot the ball at the same clip they did a year ago. On the other hand, they do have a couple very good shot blockers in the paint. This game is played at a neutral site, and early games played on a neutral court have been good under bets in the last decade. Take the under here.
12-12-20	Akron v. Buffalo UNDER 62.5		7-56	Loss	-110	121 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Buffalo likes to run the ball early and often. The Bulls play at a very slow pace. Akron has slowed their pace to a crawl this year as well. This is a very high total for a game being played at this kind of a pace with both teams running the football. The weather here looks very questionable. I don't see Akron contributing many points at all here. This is an awfully high total for one team to get nearly all the points in a game that projects as a slow paced game with a lot of running. The weather here doesn't look very good either. I see value on the under. Take the under.
12-12-20	Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Texas Tech UNDER 131		57-77	Loss	-110	19 h 47 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Texas Tech ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. That should be no big surprise since Chris Beard's teams are always excellent on the defensive end. Texas Tech has only allowed 46, 40, and 44 points in their last three games. Texas A&M Corpus Christi isn't going to score many points here. The Islanders play at a slow pace and they struggle badly with turnovers. There will be a bunch of wasted possessions for them. Texas Tech is 99th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Red Raiders offense is pretty good, but they also turn it over too much. This is a team that is comfortable playing at a slow pace as well. Take the under here.
12-11-20	Marquette v. UCLA UNDER 140.5		60-69	Win	100	28 h 51 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Mick Cronin's teams are always strong on the defensive end. The Bruins will be good on that end again this year. So far this season UCLA has been good on offense as well, but they have played some very weak defenses. The Bruins are now up against a Marquette team that ranks 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Marquette isn't the same team without Markus Howard. Howard was a shot maker and a guy that got to the line a lot and knocked down a ton of shots from the charity stripe. Their offensive efficiency will be far lower this season. Last year Marquette was 60th in tempo, and so far this year they are much slower 141st in the country. UCLA ranks in the bottom 20% of teams in the country in terms of tempo. Look for a tight lower scoring game here. Take the under.
12-11-20	Nevada v. Grand Canyon UNDER 140		77-87	Loss	-110	20 h 37 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Grand Canyon Antelopes have a new head coach in Bryce Drew this year. Drew has always had his teams play slower than average. Grand Canyon has started out this year playing at a very slow pace against Grambling and Mississippi Valley State (it is hard to slow a game down against these guys). Nevada lost a ton of offense from last year's team. The Wolf Pack no longer have a go to guy on offense, and their backcourt is a big question mark. While they are clearly weaker on offense, I like Nevada's length in the frontcourt and how it could lead to opponents having a tougher time getting to the rim against this team. Nevada and Grand Canyon have both played some games that have been very low scoring on relative basis compared to last year. Based on both of these teams being high flying teams in recent seasons, I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted this total down enough. Take the under.
12-10-20	Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45.5		3-24	Win	100	30 h 55 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The New England Patriots should come up with a good defensive scheme to face Jared Goff and the Rams here. They certainly did a couple years ago in the Super Bowl. Jared Goff can look great one game and very questionable the next game. The New England offense is being very conservative on offense right now. The Patriots run the ball a bunch. The Rams are allowing 3.91 yards per carry. Look for the Rams to do a good job stopping the run here. I don't trust Cam Newton to be able to do much through the air against this elite secondary either. The Rams defense ranks number one in the NFL in yards per play allowed overall. Both of these teams have played 8 of their 12 games so far this year under this total. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand on Thursday night. Take the under.
12-09-20	Boise State v. BYU UNDER 143.5		74-70	Loss	-110	20 h 45 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The BYU Cougars are a much different team than they were a year ago. They have far less offensive weapons, but they are clearly better on defense. BYU now has a big man in the middle of the paint with length that can deter drivers from getting to the hoop. Matt Haarms is somewhat limited on offense, but he should be pretty good for this BYU team. BYU has played five Division One teams this year, and four of them rank in the top 100 in the nation in tempo. The Cougars have still played four of those five games under this total (highest score was only 147). I think the oddsmakers are having a hard time adjusting BYU totals down enough for their new roster. Boise State's Marcus Shaver is banged up and will likely be less than 100% here. The Broncos have a good defensive team who can go through slumps on offense at times because they don't move enough. BYU is good at forcing a lot of midrange jumpers which isn't ideal for Boise State's offensive identity. Take the under here.
12-09-20	Oklahoma v. Xavier OVER 146		77-99	Win	100	20 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Xavier Musketeers are playing significantly faster on offense this year. Travis Steele has his team spreading out on the floor and looking to use a euro style to get space and create open looks for their improved shooters on the perimeter. Oklahoma always wants to run under Coach Kruger. The Sooners have seen 171 and 160 points scored in their first two games. Their offense starts with Austin Reaves, and I don't think Xavier has anyone who matches up well defending him. I expect lots of chances in transition for both teams. These two teams are going to be very good in transition this season. Expect a close game all the way, and overtime or a foul fest is certainly a possibility with the way this game would project. Take the over.
12-09-20	Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Arkansas State OVER 135.5		75-74	Win	100	18 h 50 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Arkansas State Red Wolves host the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions on Wednesday night. Arkansas State has played a very tough schedule of defenses so far, and that has made their offensive numbers very ugly. That should change here. Arkansas State has had 23.7% of their shots blocked so far this year. That can't continue. They saw less than 6% of their shots blocked a year ago, and an average number is in the 9-10% range. A key to this handicap for me is both teams getting to the free throw line a lot. Pine Bluff has ranked in the bottom 15 in the country at defending without fouling the last five years in a row. Arkansas State has ranked in the bottom 25 in that same stat in the last two years. Both of these teams have ranked very highly at getting to the charity stripe. They are both aggressive at taking it to the basket. Look for a lot of trips to the line in this game. Pine Bluff has allowed 80 points or more in every game this year. I think Arkansas State can get there or get very close. Take the over here.
12-08-20	Bryant v. St Francis NY OVER 148.5		101-82	Win	100	16 h 34 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Bryant Bulldogs have had a drastic change in pace so far this year. Bryant averaged 17.2 seconds per possession last year, but so far this year they are at a blistering face pace of only 12.8 seconds per possession. That is the second fastest pace in the country so far this year. Bryant has played three games. Two of them have been against Division I schools (Syracuse and New Hampshire). Those two games had a pace of 86 and 82 possessions. Their game against Rhode Island College finished 138-93 (97 possessions). After that game Jared Grasso, head coach at Bryant, said he was very happy with the pace his team played at in that contest. St. Francis and Bryant played one of their two games last season over this number, and that was with Bryant playing significantly slower. The opening total has been bet up some here, but I don't think it has been bet up enough considering the tempo change. St. Francis has been a slightly faster than average paced team on the whole in the last three seasons. Take the over here.
12-07-20	Hampton v. Norfolk State UNDER 147		64-76	Win	100	18 h 44 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Hampton Pirates lost their two stars from last year. Jermaine Marrow graduated and Ben Stanley transferred to Xavier. Those two guys averaged 24.8 ppg and 22.0 ppg last season. They also lost their fourth leading scorer in Greg Heckstall. Before the season, Hampton Coach Edward Joyner Jr. said he wanted to change the tempo of his team this year. He said the strength of the team is inside and they need to run more halfcourt sets. Hampton ranked 56th in the nation in tempo last year, but they will be slower this season. They also are very likely to be far less efficient on offense. Norfolk State is usually the best or second best defense in the MEAC. Norfolk State isn't very good offensively, but they can force teams into a lot of bad looks and turnovers. Last year, Norfolk State played 11 games against Division I opponents in the non-conference schedule at the beginning of the year. All 11 of those games stayed under this total. One of those games was against Hampton (who was without Marrow as they will be again here) and the final was just 64-53. I would expect Hampton to be a little better on defense and worse on offense this year. Norfolk State is a very similar team to a year ago. This total is set at too high of a number. Take the under.
12-07-20	George Washington v. Maryland-Baltimore County OVER 145.5		81-92	Win	100	4 h 45 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UMBC Retrievers want to play with a lot more pace this year. Coach Ryan Odom said he believes the uptick in tempo this season will help with their offensive efficiency. The team has spent every bit of time they had prior to the season getting ready for their new faster style of play. George Washington is playing much faster as well. Jamion Christian says he now has the personnel to play faster and shoot a lot more 3's than they did a year ago. George Washington ranks as the 17th fastest in average possession length so far this year. Their games have finished with 149, 160, and 154 points. I expect to see a fast pace in this game, and the number hasn't been adjusted enough. Take the over.
12-06-20	Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47.5		17-12	Win	100	28 h 41 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Seattle Seahawks defense is much improved with Carlos Dunlap and Jamal Adams. Seattle has allowed 5.8 yards per play on the year, but only 4.8 yards per play in their last three games. They have actually played two good offenses in those last three games too (Arizona and the LA Rams). Seattle has been far more conservative with their play calling in recent weeks. Pete Carroll has said he wants to reduce the amount of hits Russell Wilson takes. This sets up as a game where the Seahawks can salt away the win by running the football and using up the clock. Colt McCoy is expected to start here, and I think he is a big downgrade from Daniel Jones. McCoy doesn't throw the ball down the field as much, and he isn't able to use his legs the way Jones can. Take the under here.
12-06-20	Bengals v. Dolphins UNDER 42		7-19	Win	100	129 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cincinnati Bengals offense is a mess without Joe Burrow. The offensive line is the worst in the NFL. Brandon Allen is the starting quarterback here and he doesn't even know the system much at all. Their only touchdown last week was a special teams touchdown and that was against an average at best Giants defense. The Dolphins are an above average secondary. The Bengals are banged up in the running game, and it is hard to see them scoring much at all. With Miami heading into a big game against KC the next week it is easy to see the Dolphins just grabbing a lead here and coasting and being happy to salt this one away and play with a slow tempo. Tua is the likely starter at QB here and that means a more conservative game plan. Look for a low scoring game all the way around here. I think this could stay in the mid 30's or lower. Take the under.
12-06-20	Colts v. Texans UNDER 51.5		26-20	Win	100	71 h 15 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Houston Texans offense will look a lot different without Will Fuller on the outside stretching the field. Deshaun Watson is an excellent quarterback, but his numbers without Fuller are far worse in his career than his numbers with Fuller on the field. This will be the first time he has been without Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins (now at Arizona). Houston has put up a lot of points of late, but they haven't been up against a good defense in a long time. In fact, the last solid defense they played was the Steelers back in September. Indianapolis is expected to be without star lineman Anthony Castonzo. That will make Phillip Rivers a little less comfortable in the pocket. The Colts prefer to play it safe offensively and move at a slower tempo. Divisional games late in the season have been good under bets, and this one fits that system. I see both offenses as a bit overvalued with their recent high scoring games against bad defenses. Take the under.
12-06-20	Jaguars v. Vikings OVER 50.5		24-27	Win	100	57 h 29 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Minnesota Vikings offense is averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per play on offense at home. Kirk Cousins is playing really well and Adam Thielen will be back in the lineup here. Justin Jefferson is a great second option. The Jaguars secondary is probably the worst in the NFL. I expect Cousins and the Vikings receivers to have a big day here. Dalvin Cook may be a bit banged up. Even if Cook misses time here, the Vikings offensive line is good in run blocking, and the Vikings have a good group of backup running backs. I think Sean Glennon is a step up from Jake Luton, and I liked what I saw from him last week. With the Jaguars offense getting a little bit healthier, I think they put up some points in this one. Minnesota ranks 21st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Jacksonville is last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This game is played in a dome. We have two very weak defenses and an average total in today's NFL. Take the over.
12-06-20	Browns v. Titans OVER 53		41-35	Win	100	11 h 38 m	Show
3 Star Play Over I see the Cleveland Browns as an over team right now. They had three really bad weather games which skewed their stats significantly. This is an above average offense with a strong offensive line and two very good running backs. It is also a defense that is clearly below average, especially without Denzel Ward in the secondary. The Tennessee Titans have been an amazing over bet with Ryan Tannehill under center. How good? The over is 20-4 in the Titans last 24 games with Tannehill under center. Derrick Henry does a great job keeping the defenses attention, and the Titans wide receivers are underrated by many. The Titans have big play potential at all times. The Titans secondary is vulnerable without Adoree Jackson. Both of these teams have 44 plays of 20 yards or more, which is tied for 9th in the NFL. The weather looks good for this one, and I expect both teams to put up quite a few points here. Take the over.
12-05-20	South Carolina v. Houston UNDER 140		67-77	Loss	-110	24 h 48 m	Show
4 Star Play Under These two teams met last year and the final total was 132 points. Houston is playing much slower so far this season, and I think they will try to turn this into a halfcourt contest. South Carolina is once again a very scrappy team who will be excellent on the defensive end. The Gamecocks are likely to struggle on offense though. They only scores 62 on Liberty and 69 on Tulsa. Houston is a better defense than either of those teams. This game is totaled as an average scoring game in college hoops. I think these defenses are too good for that number. Take the under.
12-05-20	West Virginia v. Iowa State UNDER 49.5		6-42	Win	100	17 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Iowa State Cyclones are a strong defensive team. West Virginia is very good on the defensive end as well. West Virginia ranks 5th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have played a weak schedule, but this is a very good defense who should be able to at least slow down Brock Purdy and the Cyclones offense. West Virginia's offense hasn't been very good overall, and they have been very weak away from home. Iowa State's front seven should be able to shut down the running game and put pressure on the quarterback here. Take the under.
12-05-20	Lamar v. Air Force UNDER 133		44-59	Win	100	22 h 42 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Air Force has played at the single slowest pace of any team in the country so far this year. Joe Scott has made it known that he wants this team to run the Princeton offense and move extremely slowly this season. They have done exactly that thus far. Their first two games finished with 127 points (against a very fast paced team) and 108 points. Lamar is averaging only 58.3 points per game this year. They scored only 45 against Houston and 57 against Tulane. The Cardinals move a little faster than an average offense, but they are very inefficient. The books are having a hard time catching up to Air Force's change of pace. Unless they shoot really well here, I don't think they can get to this number. Take the under.
12-05-20	Bowling Green v. Akron UNDER 58		3-31	Win	100	120 h 38 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Bowling Green Falcons meet the Akron Zips in what should be a really bad game. These two teams are the worst two teams in the MAC, and they are two of the bottom five teams in the country overall. The last two seasons when these two teams met the final score was 35-6 and 21-6. The two teams combined for a pathetic 376 yards of total offense last year. Akron is playing at a much slower pace this year. They have decided that they have to do their best to play keep away and hide their really bad defense. The Zips offense hasn't been able to get many big plays at all this year. Bowling Green's quarterback play has been awful. The Falcons have the run the football, and that means a running clock a bunch of the time. I don't want to watch this game and neither should you, but I do think the under holds value. Take the under.
12-05-20	Troy v. South Alabama UNDER 55		29-0	Win	100	16 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The South Alabama Jaguars have played one game that finished higher than this total, and that was against Arkansas State. Arkansas State is the fastest paced team in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have a great offense and a terrible defense. Troy has been really bad offensively the last few weeks. Their offensive line is a big problem. The Trojans have scored 13, 17, and 10 points in their last three games. This total has been bet up to a point where the under has value. Take the under here.
12-05-20	Eastern Washington v. Arizona OVER 145		67-70	Loss	-110	15 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Eastern Washington is all about running and gunning on offense. This team ranked 19th in overall tempo in the country last year. What has Sean Miller talked about a bunch in the offseason? That he wants his team to play faster. Here is their chance. Arizona did shoot the ball quickly on their possessions against Grambling, but they weren't very efficient. I think the fact that the Grambling game was awfully low scoring for the tempo makes this total a good value. Eastern Washington has several scorers, but they can't play any defense. Arizona should be able to put up a big number on them. Take the over here.
12-05-20	Texas v. Kansas State UNDER 54		69-31	Loss	-111	118 h 51 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Kansas State Wildcats prefer to play at an extremely slow pace. Kansas State also runs the ball on 59% of their snaps on offense. Texas is much improved on defense this year. They rank 29th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Longhorns are likely to load up the box and dare Kansas State to beat them through the air here. Kansas State's defense has been much better at home so far this year. They should be able to slow down a Texas offense that is very inconsistent. I had this one a few points lower than the total here. I think this is a good value. Take the under.
12-05-20	Rice v. Marshall UNDER 45.5		20-0	Win	100	69 h 37 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Marshall Thundering Herd host the Rice Owls in a Conference USA matchup on Saturday afternoon. Last year when these two teams met, the final score was Marshall 20 and Rice 7. Marshall does have a better offense this year, but they are a run heavy team that plays slowly. The Thundering Herd rank 100th in the nation in tempo. Rice is even slower at 113th. Both of these teams run the ball on 60% of their offensive plays, which should mean a lot of running clock in this game. Rice just played a 27-17 game against North Texas, who has some of the highest scoring games in the country on average. They also played a 30-6 game against Southern Miss. Marshall won 17-7 over App State and 20-9 over FLA Atlantic. There is a chance of rain during this game (it will mainly rain before the game and will create a wet field), and there is a little bit of wind. This could make the teams even more conservative. Look for a low scoring game here. Take the under.
12-04-20	Oregon v. Seton Hall UNDER 143		83-70	Loss	-110	27 h 47 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Oregon Ducks didn't look very good in their loss to Missouri a couple days ago, but Missouri has more talent than most realize. Also, Missouri has decided to pick up their tempo a lot this season. The Tigers put up 83 points on what should be a good Oregon defense. Seton Hall is a good defensive team under Kevin Willard. The Pirates play at an average tempo, and their guards aren't very good in transition offense. This game is played on a neutral court in Omaha. These neutral court games have been great under bets in the long run, and I think Oregon's first game being so high scoring has given us good line value on this contest. Take the under.
12-03-20	Louisiana Tech v. North Texas OVER 65.5		42-31	Win	100	76 h 6 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green rank second in the nation in tempo. They also have a terrible defense. North Texas just allowed Sincere McCormick from UTSA to set a new school record for rushing yards last week. They gave up 49 points to a middle of the UTSA offense. North Texas has been very good at getting explosive plays on offense. The Mean Green already have 29 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. They face a LA Tech defense that is no better than league average. I feel like LA Tech's scores have been depressed a bit by the teams they have played so far this year. North Texas is the best over team in Conference USA. Take the over.
12-03-20	Washington v. Utah UNDER 136		62-76	Loss	-115	16 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Washington Huskies offense wasn't good last year. Now, they are without their three best offensive options from a year ago. Jaden McDaniels and Isiah Stewart are in the NBA. Nahziah Carter is suspended right now. Washington has looked awful on the offensive end in their first couple games. They were non-competitive in a 86-52 loss to a great Baylor team in game one. The real concerning one for Washington fans was their 57-42 loss at home to UC Riverside. These two teams have met five times since Mike Hopkins took over at Washington and they started running the matchup zone defense. Utah and Washington have combined to score 132, 128, 122, 107, and 133 points in those five matchups. Utah has consistently been in the bottom 30% of the country in terms of tempo. I don't expect that to change this year. The Utes don't have much height on the perimeter and that long matchup zone of Washington has really given them trouble. Look for Utah's defense to be able to keep the weak Washington offense in check, and the matchup zone is likely still a problem for Utah. Take the under.
12-02-20	Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 139		55-59	Win	100	22 h 31 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Oregon State Beavers offense won't be as efficient this year without Tres Tinkle. He was the go to guy nearly all the time for this team the last few years. They played a bit slower in their first contest this year, and I would expect them to be a slow tempo team this season. They have more length this year though, and I think they could be better on the defensive end. Washington State has looked very good on defense in their first two games. The Cougars held Texas Southern (a pretty good SWAC offense) to only 52 points. They also held an Eastern Washington good offense to 68 points in game two. The Cougars prefer to play slowly, and this is their first opponent who will be happy to play slowly along with them. Based on the projected pace and the shooting numbers necessary to get this past this total, I think this number is too high. Take the under.
12-02-20	Drexel v. Quinnipiac UNDER 146.5		66-48	Win	100	18 h 27 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Drexel Dragons and Quinnipiac Bobcats meet on a neutral floor (Mohegan Sun) on Wednesday night. Drexel and Quinnipiac are fairly similar teams to last year. Drexel is playing a bit slower than a year ago, but they have been slightly more efficient on offense (just one game). Quinnipiac has the same nucleus and same coach and I expect a similar style of play as last year for them as well. These two teams met last year on a neutral floor and the final score was 72-63. The tempo was just 65 possessions so it was a slow paced game. Neutral courts are good for the under and that has already shown itself this season. This number has been set awfully high. I have this number several points lower. Take the under.
11-30-20	Eastern Kentucky v. Xavier OVER 144.5		96-99	Win	100	16 h 56 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Travis Steele said before the season that he wanted his team to go with a motion offense that led to them playing at a faster pace this year. Through three games, they have definitely played quicker. They averaged using 17.7 seconds of the shot clock last year and they are using only 16.3 seconds of the shot clock so far this year. Steele really thinks he has a much better outside shooting team this year as well. Eastern Kentucky likes to press as much as possible and push the pace of the game. They have a lot of trouble on the defensive glass too, and Xavier should get a lot of second chance opportunities. Eastern Kentucky's games typically have a lot of trips to the charity stripe. This is a great opportunity for Xavier to work their motion offense and spread the floor and look for quicker shots. Take the over.
11-30-20	Indiana v. Providence OVER 140		79-58	Loss	-108	11 h 49 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Archie Miller said he has been wanting to play with faster tempo since he has been at Indiana, but this is the first time he has had the right guys to be able to do it. In their first game, Indiana used up only 13.4 seconds of the shot clock on average. The Hoosiers were playing far faster than they did last year. His players have said from practices that they are excited and that "people will be surprised at how fast we play." Providence played quick in their first game against Fairfield (a team who likes to slow the game down). Ed Cooley's teams can be a bit hard to figure out as far as their preferred pace, but I think their aggression on defense is likely to get Indiana to the line quite a bit here. On the other side, Providence is great on the offensive glass which should get them good second chance opportunities. Take the over.
11-29-20	Alabama A&M v. Samford OVER 144	Top	78-76	Win	100	14 h 18 m	Show
5 Star CBB Hidden GEM TOP Play The Samford Bulldogs have a new coach in Bucky McMillan. McMillan has stated in the preseason that he wants his team to win games that are "played in the 90's." He wants to use full court pressure all game long and sub in and out guys a bunch to stay fresh. It was a game against a Division III opponent, but Samford's exhibition win over Greenville University was one of the craziest box scores you will ever see. Samford won that game 174-99. Yes, you read that right.. they scored 174 points. Also, the pace of the game was unreal. The game paced out to 116 possessions. An average game is 66 or 67 possessions. A very fast paced game is 85 or 90 possessions. I don't think we should assume Samford will be able to get Alabama A&M to play that quickly, but I do think Alabama A&M will have trouble with the press. Alabama A&M has finished two of the last three seasons in the bottom 40 in the country in turnover percentage on offense. Samford will turn them over and get easy scores. Samford is the favorite here for a reason, and with them likely ahead in this one it should make Alabama A&M not be able to stall as often. Samford's players and coaches are all talking the talk about playing extremely fast and they looked like they are backing it up in that exhibition. If they are- this total is clearly too low. Take the over. TOP Rated Play.
11-29-20	Dolphins v. Jets OVER 44		20-3	Loss	-110	9 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Miami Dolphins are expected to have Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback here. Even if Tua were the starter here, I think this is a fair price on the total. With Fitzpatrick, I think this is a very solid price on the over. The Jets defense is looking worse by the week. It would be a surprise if the Dolphins offense weren't able to put up quite a few points in this one. On the other side, with a healthy group of wide receivers, the Jets offense has looked much better the last couple weeks. Sam Darnold is back here and he is an upgrade from Joe Flacco. The weather looks good for this one, and in today's NFL if there isn't a weather issue this is a very low posted total. Take the over here.
11-29-20	Chargers v. Bills OVER 52		17-27	Loss	-102	8 h 21 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The LA Chargers have become an over machine of late. Six of their last seven games have gotten to 57 points or higher. The Chargers aren't just getting over the total, they have been clearing it easily. Without Casey Hayward and Melvin Ingram here, the Chargers are without two of their best defensive players. Buffalo's defense has been a big disappointment this year. The Chargers have been able to get Keenan Allen going in a big way of late, and Buffalo has struggled with slot receivers in coverage. Allen should have a big game here. There is some wind in the forecast here (14 mph on average). That is factored into the total though, and I think both passing attacks have the edge vs. the opposing secondary. If it isn't broke, well you know. I see both of these teams as over teams. Take the over.
11-28-20	Nevada v. Hawaii OVER 58.5	Top	21-24	Loss	-110	129 h 55 m	Show
5 Star TOP Play Over The Nevada Wolf Pack have only 9 touchdowns in 22 trips into the red zone. Nevada's offense is due for some positive regression in the red zone. Carson Strong is a really good fit in the air raid offense. They also have an elite receiver in Romeo Doubs. Nevada put up 26 points against a very good San Diego State defense last weekend. The Wolf Pack gained 374 yards in that game. In a normal game that isn't all that impressive, but San Diego State ranks 2nd in the nation in yards per play allowed. Hawaii ranks 22nd in the nation in pace of play. This team is throwing it less this year, but they are still playing very fast. Nevada's defensive numbers look very good, but who have they played that is any good at offense? They haven't played a team in the top 60 in the nation in yards per play on offense. Nevada should be susceptible to the big play again this year. Both of these teams should get several chances in the red zone and both are due for positive regression when they get there. The pace of the game here means this total is set a few points lower than it should be. Take the over. Top Rated play. Note- this has moved a little bit during the week. I would rate this a 5 star play up to 61. At 61.5 or higher this would be a 4 star rated play. Thanks and good luck.
11-28-20	Utah v. Washington UNDER 49.5		21-24	Win	100	66 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Washington Huskies allowed only 46 yards against Arizona in the Wildcats first 33 plays from scrimmage last week. Once Washington took a huge lead, Arizona then put up more than 300 yards in the fourth quarter when the game had been decided. Jimmy Lake is a defensive-minded coach, and he wasn't happy that the Huskies gave up a lot in the fourth quarter against Arizona. I think that helps us here this week. Washington shut down Arizona when it mattered last week, and now they have heard from their coach all week about how much they can improve. Utah's defense lost a lot from last year. Where the Utes will be able to be beaten this year is through the air. Washington is running the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year, and the Huskies have an inexperienced quarterback. Utah is still very strong in the trenches, and they should be able to slow the Washington ground game. Utah doesn't have a strong rushing attack, but they might be able to beat some teams through the air. Washington has my highest rated secondary in the Pac 12. The Huskies are going to be a problem for opposing quarterbacks. I see two teams who play at a very slow pace and prefer to be conservative on offense. I also see two high quality defenses. Take the under here.
11-28-20	Loyola Marymount v. Minnesota OVER 143	Top	73-88	Win	100	17 h 22 m	Show
5 Star TOP Total of the WEEK The Loyola Marymount Lions are playing a completely different way this year. Stan Johnson was a Marquette assistant and he took over the head coaching job at Loyola Marymount this year after the team let Mike Dunlap go at the end of last year. Johnson wants the team to play quicker, and they definitely did that in game one against Southern Utah. There were 74 possessions in that first game. That's a fast paced game, and it is something Loyola Marymount didn't do at all last year under Dunlap. All season long last season not a single game against a Division I opponent was played that fast. Minnesota was absolutely flying up and down the court against Wisconsin Green Bay in game one. They shot the ball on average only 12.5 seconds into the clock. The Golden Gophers put up 99 points despite going only 7/34 from the 3 point line. Loyola Marymount ranked 15th in shot quality last year, but was only 112th in effective field goal percentage shooting. They have enough solid shooters on their team that they should improve their efficiency on offense. Minnesota's Marcus Carr is going to be a very tough guard for Loyola Marymount. Adding Liam Robbins down low and Both Gach on the perimeter gives Minnesota more scoring options than last year. Take the over. TOP Rated Play.
11-28-20	CS-Northridge v. Air Force UNDER 149		61-66	Win	100	15 h 35 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Joe Scott's Denver Pioneers were a great under team. I expect Air Force to slow things down drastically this year from the past few seasons. Dave Phillipovich had the team playing at an average pace, and that simply isn't going to happen under Scott. It remains to be seen how good the Air Force defense will be (likely not very good), but a game with a total set this high with a team stalling the way Scott's teams always did at Denver is a must bet to the under for me. CS Northridge lost their top two players from last year. This is a team that doesn't have a great identity on either end of the floor right now. I expect a slower pace here and I like the value here. Take the under.
11-28-20	North Texas v. UTSA OVER 64.5		17-49	Win	100	121 h 0 m	Show
4 Star Play Over UTSA is playing significantly faster this season. The Roadrunners have had some lower scoring games, but that is largely because of who they have played. UTSA played a Florida Atlantic team that has had a bunch of low scoring games. They also played Army and UAB who are slow paced low scoring teams. They aren't playing a low scoring slow paced team in this one. Instead, they are playing North Texas, who plays as fast as anyone in the country. North Texas is snapping the ball every 19.5 seconds. The Mean Green are also 11th in the nation in yards per play. UTSA has already allowed 21 plays of 30 yards or more so far this season. North Texas should get a lot of big gainers here. UTSA ranks 46th in YPC this year, and North Texas' run defense is terrible. The Roadrunners will see their scoring opportunities throughout as well. North Texas has had only one game fall below 70 points all season. Take the over.
11-28-20	Southeastern Louisiana v. UAB OVER 143		59-84	Push	0	14 h 58 m	Show
4 Star Play Over SE Louisiana went a shockingly bad 1/28 from 3 point range in their season opener. That's really hard to do. SE Louisiana pushes the pace in a big way, and UAB will be more than happy to play fast under new coach Andy Kennedy. Can SE Louisiana knock down more shots here? They aren't likely to be great shooting as a team this year, but they are due for positive regression after a 1/28 performance. Kennedy's teams ranked in the top 75 or so in the country in tempo every year when he was on the sidelines in the past. UAB does have good shooters around the perimeter and several slashers that can get to the bucket. SE Louisiana's defense takes all kinds of risks with the full court press and the team gives up a lot of open close shots. Their opponents also get to the line a lot. Expect this to be a big problem against this UAB offense. My tempo projections here point to this total being closer to 150. Take the over.
11-28-20	Ball State v. Toledo OVER 63		27-24	Loss	-110	58 h 58 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Ball State Cardinals play at the fastest pace of any team in the MAC. Ball State is using only 22.9 seconds between plays. The Cardinals have good balance on offense too. They are tremendous in the running game with Caleb Huntley, but Drew Plitt and the passing game can get explosive plays as well. Last year when these two teams met Ball State won 52-14. Ball State ran for nearly 400 yards in that game! The Cardinals are likely to find a lot of success offensively again. Toledo was without their starting quarterback in last year's contest, and they could never get anything going on offense. The Rockets are unlikely to have the same problem this year. Toledo already has 15 plays of 20 yards or more in three games this season. Ball State's defense has really looked bad so far this season, and they have played some of the weakest offenses in the MAC. Toledo is one of the best offenses in the MAC. This line has moved down to the point where there is good value on the over here. The MAC is an over conference on the whole, and these are two very good offenses. Take the over.
11-28-20	SMU v. East Carolina OVER 67		38-52	Win	100	16 h 29 m	Show
4 Star Play Over How did this game go last year? SMU defeated East Carolina 59-51. Both teams had more than 630 yards in the game. It was a shootout all the way. Why would this game be all that different? SMU is still very good in the passing game this year. The Mustangs already have 32 plays of 30 yards or more this year, which is the third most of anyone in the country. Both SMU and East Carolina rank in the bottom 20 teams in the country at preventing explosive plays. There should be a lot of big gainers from each side here. SMU provides the tempo, and I like the East Carolina offense better when they are playing from behind because Holton Ahlers seems to be able to get into a rhythm throwing it around later in the game in those situations. The weather looks good here and I expect a high scoring game. Take the over.
11-28-20	Bowling Green v. Ohio OVER 54		10-52	Win	100	16 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Over Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in the country. The Falcons defense is absolutely awful. The offense isn't much better. Bowling Green does like to play very fast though, and that tends to lead to value on the over in their games. The Falcons rank 34th in the nation in pace of play. Ohio's offense was kept off the field quite a bit by Akron in their last game. The Bobcats are averaging a solid 6.04 YPP so far this year, but it has been only 24 and 27 points for them in their first two contests. Ohio isn't quite as good offensively as they were last year, but they did put up a whopping 66 points on Bowling Green last season. Bowling Green's running game is slightly better this year, and I think they can get some yardage on the ground here. If Bowling Green can get to 20 points here we should be able to get the over. I think this total is set too low because Ohio had such a low scoring game against Akron. Bowling Green is going to give up a bunch of points this year. Take the over.
11-27-20	Oregon v. Oregon State OVER 61.5		38-41	Win	100	102 h 37 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Oregon Ducks offense is much more explosive this year despite losing a star quarterback in Justin Herbert. Why? A new offensive coordinator in Joe Moorhead. Moorhead is a really good offensive mind who puts his players in positions to make big plays. Oregon already has a whopping 21 plays of 20 yards or more in only three games. The Ducks have several good running backs who put a lot of pressure on any defense, and the Oregon State run defense is a big problem because of their weak defensive interior on the line. Oregon has been a big disappointment defensively. The Ducks are giving up 6.32 yards per play so far this year. Their tackling needs some serious work, and the biggest problem spot is their run defense. That isn't good when going against Jefferson and the Oregon State running attack. Oregon State is 29th in pace of play and the Beavers should be able to hit some big gainers against this Oregon defense. Oregon will put up a bunch of points in this contest and Oregon State should put up enough as well. Take the over.
11-27-20	NC-Wilmington v. North Carolina-Asheville OVER 149		76-68	Loss	-110	18 h 25 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UNC Asheville Bulldogs ranked 350th out of 353 teams in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense last year. Their interior defense was as bad as anyone in the country. UNC Asheville pushes the pace and tries to get steals and transition baskets, but their opposition gets a ton of easy looks in the paint and a lot of trips to the free throw line. UNC Wilmington is picking up their pace a lot under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. He worked under Kevin Keatts and Keatts' system is a very fast paced one where the team tries to attack the rim and get to the basket a lot. There shouldn't be anyone looking to slow the pace down in this game. This total is set a few points lower than it should have been considering the tempo here. Take the over.
11-27-20	Central Florida v. South Florida OVER 67		58-46	Win	100	12 h 40 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UCF Knights rank first in the nation in pace of play. They are using only 19 seconds between plays on average. The USF Bulls rank 30th and they are only using 23.32 seconds between plays in conference action. This game should have a bunch of plays in it. That's always a good start for a high over. UCF is first in the nation with 71 plays of 20 yards or more. The Knights have only played eight games, so they are really putting up the big gainers at a very high rate. USF is giving up 6.17 yards per play in AAC action so far. UCF should put up a very big number here. It would be surprise if they don't at least get into the upper 40's. USF has had two weeks to get ready for this game, and there are two great offensive minds on this staff in Jeff Scott and Charlie Weis Jr. The UCF defense has been a big weakness this year, and I do think USF will get their yards and scoring opportunities here. Take the over.
11-27-20	Iowa State v. Texas UNDER 60.5		23-20	Win	100	94 h 40 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Texas Longhorns are much better defensively this season. Texas ranks 21st in the nation in yards per play allowed. The defensive coaching staff is much better this year, and they have done a good job being aggressive on this side of the football. Iowa State has the best run defense in the Big 12. They should be able to make Texas one dimensional on offense. Iowa State already has 22 sacks this year, and the Texas offensive line is a weakness. Iowa State is playing at an extremely slow pace to have a game totaled this high. The game could certainly get to the total if there are a bunch of big plays or turnovers for scores, but in a normal game state I don't see this one getting this high. The last 5 meetings between these two have finished at this many combined points: 24, 33, 24, 34, and 44 points. Take the under here.
11-25-20	Southern Utah v. Loyola Marymount OVER 140		83-85	Win	100	18 h 53 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Loyola Marymount Lions have a new coach this year. Mike Dunlap is gone and so is his very slow paced style. Stan Johnson was an assistant at Marquette, where they played a very fast paced style year after year. Johnson has already said they are committed to speeding things up this season. The Southern Utah Thunderbirds went out and got some junior college guys who can shoot from long range in the offseason. Todd Simon's team should be much better on offense than they were a year ago. Simon also said in the offseason that they'll play faster. Simon said "I think we'll play faster- we've always been up-tempo, but we'll kick it up a notch this year." The oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough based on the two teams both picking up the pace here. Take the over.
11-25-20	Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Illinois UNDER 133		65-61	Win	100	25 h 26 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Luke Yaklich is an amazing defensive mind. He made the Illinois State Redbirds a great defensive end in his time with the team. After he left the team's defensive numbers have gone down every year. When Yaklich showed up at Michigan as a defensive assistant the team was #68 in defensive efficiency. They were #3 and #2 in the next two years. Texas also got better under him last year. Yaklich is preaching contesting jumpers and getting on the defensive glass to this UIC team. I expect them to be a good defensive team. Northern Illinois struggled a lot with offensive efficiency last year. They don't have any new weapons that would make me expect them to improve on that end. This team doesn't get to the line much either. They are solid on defense and are very good defensive rebounders. I expect a low scoring contest here. Take the under.
11-25-20	Western Carolina v. NC-Wilmington OVER 148		98-76	Win	100	23 h 5 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The UNC Wilmington Seahawks should play a lot quicker under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. UNC Wilmington didn't really have an identity last season. That will change this year. They will use full court pressure and try to get to the basket and get to the free throw line as much as possible on offense. Siddle was an assistant under Kevin Keatts, and his teams always rank in the top 50 in the nation in tempo. Western Carolina has an underrated star in Mason Faulkner running the offense. The Catamounts were 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They also prefer to play at a quick pace, so I don't see them slowing this one down. If the shooting numbers are terribly low this could stay under, but with normalized shooting numbers and the pace I'm expecting- I have to bet the over (my number here was 152.5) Take the over.
11-25-20	Old Dominion v. Maryland UNDER 132.5		67-85	Loss	-110	11 h 1 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Maryland lost all sorts of star power from a year ago. They had the talent to make noise in March last year, but the season was shut down. Maryland now must rely on their defense this season. The Terrapins won't be able to crash the offensive boards and get a bunch of second chance points. Old Dominion is great on the defensive glass. The Monarchs are always amazing at turning games into a rock fight. Their five non conference games against top 100 teams last year all finished at 129 points or lower. Old Dominion is short on offensive firepower. The pace of this game will be very slow. Both teams here settle for a lot of mid range jumpers that aren't very good looks. Take the under.
11-22-20	Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 48		31-28	Win	100	14 h 2 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Minnesota Vikings offense has been tremendous this year. Dalvin Cook looks like the best running back in the league. Minnesota has been very good offensively all year. They have been on another level offensively at home. How good? Minnesota is averaging a whopping 7.9 yards per play at home on the fast track so far this year. They have been above 7 yards per play in every game at home. The Cowboys weak defense is unlikely to have much success slowing them down either. Dallas is getting healthier on the offensive line. Andy Dalton returns here. Dalton looked bad earlier this season, but he should get better blocking in front of him here. The Cowboys still have tremendous wide receivers. The Vikings secondary is still a major problem. Minnesota's defense has looked better in recent weeks, but those good performances are misleading. The Vikings slowed Green Bay because of 25 mph winds 3 games ago. A couple games ago they were able to slow the Lions offense down because Stafford got hurt in that game and Golladay didn't play. Minnesota then shut down the hapless Bears offense. The Vikings have improved some on defense, but they aren't good. Dallas plays at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. The Vikings offense has been amazing at home. We're getting a total that is below average in today's NFL. The game is played in a dome. Take the over.
11-22-20	Falcons v. Saints OVER 51		9-24	Loss	-105	68 h 57 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The New Orleans Saints are expected to start Jameis Winston here. Drew Brees is out with an injury. Winston is clearly one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. He's also one of the best "over" quarterbacks in the NFL. Winston is capable of a lot of throws many quarterbacks in the NFL aren't capable of. He can push it deep and really pressure a defense. At the same time, Winston is more capable of making poor decisions and throwing pick sixes than any other quarterback in the NFL. The Saints defense has been good of late, but Atlanta is a lot better offensively than the teams the Saints have been playing of late. Atlanta's wide receivers will put a lot of pressure on a Saints secondary that has been banged up of late. Atlanta should be able to move the ball pretty well here. The Atlanta defense is last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Saints have weapons all over the field around the quarterback. It would be a big surprise if the Saints don't score a lot of points here. Take the over.
11-21-20	Mississippi State v. Georgia UNDER 45.5		24-31	Loss	-110	125 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Mississippi State Bulldogs have averaged 3.6 yards per play in all of their last four games. That is just woeful offense. Importantly, they played Vanderbilt last game and could only muster 14 first downs and 206 yards. Georgia's defense was embarrassed by Florida, and they should be ready to go for this one. Georgia is still a very good defense, and it would be a surprise if Mississippi State can do much of anything on offense here. Georgia is in flux at quarterback. JT Daniels might get the start here. This offense is likely to be pretty conservative this week. Additionally, Mississippi State's defense has actually been very solid this year. They are 35th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Expect a low scoring contest. Take the under.
11-21-20	Kansas State v. Iowa State UNDER 50		0-45	Win	100	121 h 29 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Kansas State is an under team. They are well-coached, and Klieman knows the best way for his team to stay in games and win is slow the game down and win with defense and great special teams play. Kansas State wants to run the ball a lot, but Iowa State has the best run defense in the Big 12. The Wildcats aren't likely to have much success on the ground. Iowa State has slowed their tempo down a lot this year. The Cyclones rank 106th in the nation in tempo. I don't think they'll be too aggressive on offense either. Look for both defenses to have the upper hand here. The early forecast calls for a chance of rain and some wind here too. That would just be a bonus for the under. Take the under.
11-21-20	California v. Oregon State UNDER 53		27-31	Loss	-110	121 h 47 m	Show
4 Star Play Under Cal picked up 2.8 yards per play on UCLA in their season opener. When I first saw that number I had to do a double take. UCLA's defense is very weak, and Cal could do nothing against them. Oregon State's defense fought hard against Washington on Saturday night. The Beavers aren't a great defense by any means, but with a total set this high against Cal, I think they can slow them down plenty to keep this under. The Oregon State offense is pretty good on the ground, but the passing attack is a real problem right now. Their quarterback has shown no signs of being comfortable in this offense. Cal's defensive front is a strong one. I like the line value here. Take the under.
11-21-20	Rice v. North Texas OVER 62		17-27	Loss	-110	84 h 4 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the nation in tempo, and it isn't even close. North Texas is going to snap the ball as quickly as they possibly can. The Mean Green have yet to play a game this year that didn't have a final total of at least 70 points. Rice is definitely a slower paced team, and the Owls will look to run the ball quite a bit here. Still, the Owls should break some big plays against a woeful North Texas defense. Additionally, North Texas will break some explosive plays against a questionable Rice run defense here as well. This total has been bet down to the point I have to back the over. A total in the low 60's with one team (North Texas) snapping the ball every 19 seconds is an automatic look to the over. Take the over here.
11-21-20	LSU v. Arkansas OVER 64		27-24	Loss	-110	117 h 21 m	Show
4 Star Play Over Arkansas is playing at a really fast pace of late. Arkansas is using only 22.62 seconds between snaps. The Razorbacks have been inconsistent on offense, but LSU has been awful defensively all season. LSU is giving up a whopping 7.21 yards per play so far this year. The Tigers have allowed 38 plays of 20 yards or more in only five games! Arkansas will get a lot of plays here, and they should break some big gainers. LSU's offense is still very good. LSU is 38th in the nation in yards per play on offense, and they have been up against a few good defenses already this year. I see this as a back and forth game. Take the over.
11-21-20	Illinois v. Nebraska OVER 59		41-23	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Illinois Fighting Illini gave up more than 600 yards and 42 points against Nebraska last year. That was a 42-38 game. Two years ago when these teams played it was Nebraska 54-35 over Illinois. Why is this total set so low? Nebraska has played three good defenses this year. They faced Ohio State, Northwestern, and Penn State. Nebraska struggled offensively in these games, but I expect the Cornhuskers to put up a big number here against a terrible Illinois defense. Also, Illinois is expected to get back starting quarterback Brandon Peters. Isiah Williams is also expected to see some time as a great running threat at quarterback. I think the fact that both of these teams have played some lower scoring games early this year has led to this total being lower than it should be. Early in the week the weather looked bad for this game, but now there is just a 25% chance of a light shower and very little wind. Take the over here.
11-20-20	Purdue v. Minnesota OVER 59		31-34	Win	100	101 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Minnesota defense is so bad right now, I believe everyone they play will be able to put up quite a few points. Minnesota has allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more in just four games. The Golden Gophers linebackers are weak, and they are being exposed by opponents on a weekly basis. Minnesota still has a good quarterback and good wide receivers, and I think they can move the ball here on a subpar Purdue secondary. Both coaches here are good offensive minds, and the weather looks good for this matchup. Take the over here.
11-15-20	Broncos v. Raiders OVER 51.5		12-37	Loss	-110	111 h 58 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Las Vegas Raiders offense is much better this year. Derek Carr has decided to take a lot more shots downfield, and it has made this offense work. Carr has turned into a solid quarterback, and he certainly has some good weapons around him. The Denver Broncos have been giving up a lot of big plays of late, and Las Vegas has been getting those big gainers. Denver's defense has been a disappointment. Las Vegas is favored here, and I do believe they should win this game. Denver has been able to put up a lot of points when trailing in the second half this year. Drew Lock is the king of the late game touchdown. Sometimes it has led to them coming back and winning late. Other times it has just let to the over cashing or Denver covering as an underdog ATS. Lock has a lot of weapons around him, and Denver has been playing quicker in recent weeks. Las Vegas still has a bad defense, especially in the secondary. I think Denver will be able to take advantage. Take the over.
11-15-20	Texans v. Browns UNDER 51.5		7-10	Win	100	94 h 14 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Cleveland Browns host the Houston Texans on Sunday. Cleveland played in one major weather game earlier this year and lost to the Las Vegas Raiders 16-6. The two teams had 4.7 and 4.4 YPP. The weather for Sunday calls for 20 mph sustained winds and gusts of 30 mph. There is also a 60 percent chance of rain during the game. The rain would help, but the wind is the big deal here. The Texans offense isn't very good if they have to be more conservative. Watson has to be able to throw it around. It shouldn't be as easy as normal to do that in this game. Cleveland's defense has gotten a little healthier of late, and I think this unit is a little better than their season stats look. Neither team plays all that fast to begin with, and they will have to play more conservatively with the weather like this. Take the under.
11-14-20	Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 58		21-27	Win	100	129 h 33 m	Show
3 Star Play Under Oregon State wants to play slowly and run the football a lot. The Beavers were forced out of that style in the second half against Washington State, but they will try to control the ball and move slowly. Washington is a team I like to be an under team with Jimmy Lake as their head coach. He wants to run the football and win with defense. Look for this team to be very physical and look to move the ball gradually down the field on long drives. The clock should be running a lot in this one. Washington has an elite secondary and Oregon State is unlikely to get much through the air. Take the under.
11-14-20	Oregon v. Washington State UNDER 59.5		43-29	Loss	-110	124 h 13 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I don't see Washington State having the same kind of offensive success against Oregon that they had against Oregon State. Oregon's defense is the best in the Pac 12 on paper. The Ducks secondary is arguably the best in the country. As good as De Laura looked in week one against the Beavers, he shouldn't have as easy of a time against the Ducks. I also want to note that Washington State played at a very slow pace in their week one win. This isn't going to be the aerial attack fast paced offense it was under Mike Leach. They will run the ball a lot more, and I expect them to play at a slower than average tempo. The early weather report calls for strong winds in this game, and that is another positive for the under. Take the under here.
11-14-20	Nevada v. New Mexico OVER 61		27-20	Loss	-110	124 h 9 m	Show
4 Star Play Over The Nevada Wolf Pack aerial attack really impresses me. Carson Strong is a really good fit for the air raid, and he has one of the best wide receivers in the country in Romeo Doubs. New Mexico was just torched through the air by a Hawaii team that isn't great in the passing game. New Mexico has already allowed eight plays of 40 yards or more in two games! This Lobos defense is really bad. New Mexico plays very fast, and there should be quite a few possessions in this game. Take the over here.
11-14-20	Northwestern v. Purdue UNDER 51		27-20	Win	100	22 h 55 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The weather forecast here calls for winds of 20 mph during the game with gusts to 30 mph. There is also a 60-70% chance of rain during the game. That kind of weather can really change a game. Purdue is unsure if they will have Rondale Moore back for this game. He has been sidelined for undisclosed reasons. Purdue's running game has been very weak and the weather should hurt the passing attack. Northwestern has a better quarterback this year, but they still aren't taking very many risks offensively. The Wildcats are actually playing at a slower pace this year than they did a year ago. This Northwestern defense is elite. They are 7th in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. Pat Fitzgerald's teams are always good on defense, and Northwestern has great veteran leaders at linebacker this year. With these conditions, I'm on the under. Take the under here.
11-14-20	Baylor v. Texas Tech UNDER 58		23-24	Win	100	37 h 43 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Baylor Bears are a defensive-minded team. Baylor averages only 4.71 yards per play on offense. The Bears are allowing 3 sacks per game. Baylor also isn't getting many big plays. Texas Tech offensively has been a big disappointment. They haven't gotten the good quarterback play they expected. They have struggled to get explosive plays as well. The weather here is a big reason for the play. The winds here are expected to be 25 mph sustained with gusts of 35-40 mph. That is some intense wind, and it will make both teams far more conservative. High totals with a lot of wind have been great under plays in the past, and I like the value here. Neither team has a good running game, and the passing game should be more difficult here with the weather conditions. Take the under.
11-14-20	UTEP v. UTSA UNDER 48		21-52	Loss	-110	120 h 27 m	Show
4 Star Play Under UTEP will play about as slow as anyone in the country this year. Coach Dimel is looking to try to save the defense which isn't deep. They'll run the football and attempt to use the clock and win low scoring games. It's the recipe his old school (Kansas State) uses to win games. UTSA is much improved on defense, and the area where they have been susceptible is through the air, but I don't see UTEP being able to take advantage of that weakness. Look for both defenses to have the edge here in what should be a game where both teams struggle in the red zone. Take the under.
11-14-20	TCU v. West Virginia UNDER 45.5		6-24	Win	100	15 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The West Virginia Mountaineers won 20-17 over TCU late last year in a game where neither team got to 300 yards of total offense. I think the defenses will be ahead of the offenses again here. TCU didn't look very good defensively early in the season, but in their last couple games they have rounded into form. Gary Patterson is a defensive-minded coach, so his defense improving at this stage of the season shouldn't be a surprise. West Virginia ranks in the top ten nationally in all major defensive categories. They haven't played a tough schedule, but this TCU offense isn't good either. TCU lacks playmakers at the skill positions on offense. I see this as a lower scoring battle where both teams struggle to get into the end zone. Take the under.
11-14-20	Miami-FL v. Virginia Tech OVER 67.5		25-24	Loss	-110	14 h 28 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Virginia Tech Hokies run defense has been awful this year. Miami has big play potential in the backfield at all times. Virginia Tech has allowed 35 plays of 20 yards or more on the year. The Hokies are allowing 5.16 yards per carry on the year. Miami is allowing huge plays on defense this year too. This Hurricanes defense is far worse than they have been in recent seasons. Miami has allowed a whopping 37 plays of 20 yards or more already this season. Both Virginia Tech and Miami are much improved on offense this season. Miami is playing faster with King at quarterback as well. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 in the country in explosive plays on offense. Expect a lot of big plays both ways. Take the over.
11-14-20	Indiana v. Michigan State OVER 52		24-0	Loss	-109	14 h 27 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The Indiana Hoosiers passing attack looked very good last week. I wasn't sure if Penix was going to be consistent as a passer, but he looked great against what should be at least a decent Michigan secondary last week. Indiana's single biggest strength on offense is their pass catchers. They have tremendous wide receivers and they have a lot of size. That will be very tough for Michigan State to matchup against this week. Michigan State has been known as a defensive juggernaut in recent seasons, but this team is far different. They allowed 38 to Rutgers and 49 to Iowa. It's true the offense and its miscues played a big role in those scores, but this defense is no longer any better than mediocre. Michigan State will have to throw the ball often here. Indiana's run defense is very strong, but I do think their secondary can be beaten by many teams. Since I think Indiana will be ahead here, that should put the Spartans in passing downs for much of the game. Take the over.
11-11-20	Eastern Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 62		31-38	Loss	-110	19 h 54 m	Show
3 Star Play Under The Ball State Cardinals lost 38-31 against Miami last week. Eastern Michigan lost 27-23 against Kent State last week. Ball State is going to have quite a few high scoring games this year, but I think Eastern Michigan wants to do everything they can to keep games lower scoring this season. Eastern Michigan played slowly against Kent State, and the Eagles averaged only 4.5 yards per play in that game. They held Kent State to 27 points. Kent State was able to put up 62 points on Bowling Green on Tuesday night. Bowling Green averaged 5.8 yards per play on offense in that game, and I don't think Kent State's defense is very good. Eastern Michigan lacks playmakers on offense in a big way. Their offensive line has been a strength in the past, but it isn't anymore. Ball State's secondary was expected to be pretty good this year. They weren't good in week one, but I think they'll look better here. Since I expect Ball State to have the lead, I think they'll slow their tempo down later in the game here. This total is posted 5 points higher than the posted total when these two played last year. The final score in that game was 29-23. Take the under.
11-08-20	Dolphins v. Cardinals UNDER 49.5		34-31	Loss	-110	37 h 14 m	Show
4 Star NFL Top Total of the WEEK The Miami Dolphins defense has been really good since they got healthy in the secondary. They spent a lot of money in the offseason to upgrade their secondary, and it has definitely worked. They have a defensive-minded coaching staff. Miami's pass defense grades out as a top five unit if you exclude the first couple weeks of the year. Arizona has played fast this year, but they haven't had the explosive offense many expected. They have gotten yards in smaller chunks. I do think they'll be able to run the ball pretty well here, but that uses up the clock and I think they'll have to settle for some field goals. Miami's offense with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback is a question mark. I'm surprised the team moved on from Fitzpatrick so soon when they were doing pretty well. I also will note that the Miami offense has faced the single easiest slate of defenses so far this year. Miami's offense still has a questionable offensive line and that could be a problem going forward. The line has moved up here, and I'm happy to take the under at this number. Miami will move slowly and play conservatively. Arizona has been contained by the better defenses they have played. Take the under here.
11-07-20	New Mexico v. Hawaii OVER 60.5		33-39	Win	100	129 h 31 m	Show
3 Star Play Over The New Mexico Lobos have a new coaching staff and they want to play as fast as they possibly can. New Mexico only used 22.75 seconds between plays last weekend. The Lobos did get 7 plays of 20 yards or more in game one. Hawaii will play quickly under Todd Graham. They struggled badly on offense last week against Wyoming, but this New Mexico defense is far worse than that Wyoming defense. New Mexico gave up 7.52 yards per play against a very ordinary San Jose State offense last week. Look for a lot of points from both sides. Take the over.
11-07-20	South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 56.5		6-23	Win	100	126 h 3 m	Show
4 Star Play Under I have really been impressed with Coastal Carolina this year. How could you not be? Coastal Carolina is due for some regression to the mean on offense with their red zone and third down conversion numbers. Still, it is important to point out how much this Coastal defense has improved. Their defensive front is getting in the backfield a bunch, and they are up against a weak S Bama offensive line. Both of these teams are very run heavy and they play slowly. Look for a lot of running clock in this one. Take the under.
11-07-20	Stanford v. Oregon UNDER 54		14-35	Win	100	126 h 5 m	Show
4 star Play Under I'm very high on the Oregon defense this year. The Ducks have arguably the best secondary in the nation. They also have a good pass rush and good inside linebackers to stuff the run. It should be very hard to score on this team this season. Stanford always plays slowly and I would expect the same this year. Stanford's defense looks improved especially in the secondary. The Oregon offense is down a notch after they lost Justin Herbert. Look for a more conservative game plan from the Ducks this season. Take the under.
11-07-20	UCLA v. Colorado UNDER 57		42-48	Loss	-110	114 h 40 m	Show
4 Star Play Under The Colorado Buffaloes don't have a good option at all at quarterback. They also have a new coaching staff who really wants to run the football and try to control the clock. I look for the Buffaloes offense to be much more conservative this year. They do have depth at the running back spot, and they are likely to use that early and often. UCLA has DTR at quarterback and he should be pretty good this year, but he doesn't have much talent around him, and the offensive line in front of him is a weak one. The UCLA defense isn't great by any means, but they are better than last year. I don't think the market knows how much Colorado will run the football this year and play slowly. Look for them to grind away in this game. Take the under.

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