Sports Picks & Predictions

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins have shown us that they are going to play as fast as possible this year. All but one of their games so far this year has played out to a tempo of 71 possessions per team or more. That's extremely fast compared to the average in college basketball which is about 67 possessions. UCLA played games at a pace of 78 and 82 earlier this year against poor opponents who like to run. They have another poor opponent in Cal State Fullerton who likes to run. The Titans defense is really bad, and I think UCLA will be able to get good looks all game long. UCLA's interior defense has been poor, and Fullerton has some guys who can get to the rim. Look for a fast paced high scoring game. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Washington State Cougars are a totally different team this year. Ernie Kent took over the team in the offseason, and he wants this team to run all the time. Washington State has generally been a defensive oriented team that slows it down, so the oddsmakers are slow to adjust lines with this Cougars team. Idaho has sped up the tempo a lot in the past couple years as well. The Vandals defense is atrocious (they allowed 83 points last game against Northern Kentucky). Washington State isn't a whole lot better on defense. A fast pace and two bad defenses. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Virginia Cavaliers and Maryland Terrapins were used to meeting each other in conference games, but now they'll be meeting each other in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Maryland is without leading scorer Dez Wells in this one, and that's important because they are playing against a Virginia team that locks it up on the defensive end. The Cavs defense is always one of the best in the country. Virginia is playing even slower tempo wise than they did last year, and they have had some extremely low scoring games so far this year. They haven't allowed more than 56 points in a game all year long. Maryland is slowing things down this year compared to last season as well. I had this one at 116 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Blackhawks and the St. Louis Blues are both well rested entering Wednesday night's matchup between two of the top teams in the Central Division. That should lead to a big defensive struggle. The first game between the two teams ended in a 3-2 score, but the Blackhawks didn't have the services of Corey Crawford. The best players on each team were held in check, which isn't all that surprising because these are two of the best teams at even strength.

The Blackhawks have the league's top penalty kill at better than 91 percent, which negates most of St. Louis's scoring ability. The Blues gave up 33 goals in 15 games in the month of November, so they have committed to playing defense and Brian Elliott has played very well. The Blues allowed more than three goals one time in the month. Both Elliott and Corey Crawford have goals against averages below 2.00. This should be a defensive struggle with some lower shot totals. Look for the under to come through nicely. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a double overtime win. I had them as my play of the week in that game, and they did end up getting there. There's no doubt they put in some extra effort in that game though, and there were a lot of tired Mavericks at the end of that game. Dallas has the most efficient offense in the NBA, but I see them being a little less efficient on tired legs tonight. Milwaukee is 7th in the NBA in total defense, and Jason Kidd's team has been working hard on the defensive end. Neither of these teams play all that fast, so a total of 207 is awfully high. With two teams in the top half of the NBA in total defense and some tired legs, I think this stays under the posted total. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Purdue Boilermakers have a new identity. Matt Painter's teams were previously known for slowing the game down and playing great defense. Now, the Boilermakers are all about running and getting off a bunch of shots. Purdue has had some very high scoring games this year, including some high scoring games against teams who usually play in low scoring contests. The NC State Wolfpack also like to play fast, so I see no reason that this game won't be played at a quick tempo. The over is 4-1 in Purdue's last 5 home games. The over is 5-1 in NC State's last 6 road games. I had this number at 145 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Nets/Knicks Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks offense has been awful of late. New York also plays at the single slowest tempo of any team in the NBA. Brooklyn started out playing fast, but the Nets have slowed down a lot of late. Brooklyn can't play terribly fast because of Brook Lopez. Lopez is one of the reasons Brooklyn is always solid on the defensive end. J.R. Smith is likely to miss this one with an illness, and the Knicks have a hard time scoring to start with. These two teams definitely see this as a real rivalry, and that generally leads to lower scoring games with better defense. The line movement here kept this one from being a top rated play, but my number was 186. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Los Angeles Lakers defense is awful, so taking an under with them is always risky, but the Lakers have showed signs of slowing the game down a bit of late. A total of 206 in a game where one team (Detroit) plays at a very slow pace is definitely worth a look. Detroit hasn't had a game go above 202 in their last nine games. The Pistons are playing improved defense under Stan Van Gundy, but they are a real mess on the offensive end. I had this number at 201 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star Patriots/Packers Total DOMINATION* The New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers get together in what should be a tremendous game late Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers will be all the storylines, and you can't blame the media for headlining the game with those two. They are two of the very best at their position, and they are guys who usually rise to the occasion in games like this one. The New England offense has really impressed me in recent weeks. New England can do it through the air or on the ground. The offensive line is much improved too. Green Bay's defense is still a major question mark for me. The Packers offense was a little disappointing early this year, but they are firing on all cylinders now. Both of these teams play much at a much faster tempo than the league average, and that will lead to more possessions in this game. I see this as a back and forth type of game where both offenses have a bunch of big plays. 

The over is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 home games. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 on grass. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The over is 7-1 in the Packers last 8 overall. A 29-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Tempo Total* This is a really high posted total, but it's really high for a reason. Iona and Arkansas both rank in the top 11 out of 351 college basketball teams in terms of pace. This game should be an all out track meet. Both teams are shooting above 45% on the year thus far from beyond the arc. Both teams use a full court press to push the tempo. Neither one of these teams are very good defensively in the halfcourt either. I made this total 174, so I see enough value to play this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The weather should be a major factor in this game. The forecast calls for an early high temperature of 15 degrees dropping to nine degrees by the end of the game. Carolina certainly isn't used to that kind of temperature, and I think that hurts their offense more than the defense. The wind is also going to play a major role here. The wind is expected to be about 20 miles per hour throughout this one, which should make both offenses hesitant to throw it. With a lot of running, we'll see the clock consistently moving. The defenses should be able to key in on the run after a while here too. Minnesota's defense is one of the most improved in the league under the guidance of Mike Zimmer. Look for a low scoring affair. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Total DOMINATION* The North Carolina Tar Heels offense has been great all year. The only reason the Tar Heels have been considered a disappointment this year has been their brutal defense. Just about everyone has done whatever they want against this defense. North Carolina State has a play maker at quarterback in Jacoby Brissett. The Wolfpack defense is going to struggle to get off the field here, but the offense should be able to pile up the points. This has been a highly competitive and high scoring series in the past few years. I think both of those trends continue this weekend. I made this total 75 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Boston College Eagles have surprised a lot of people this year. Steve Addazio deserves a ton of credit for that. Boston College has really bought into Addazio's system, and the Eagles have fought hard all season long. The defense is pretty good against both the run and the pass. Syracuse's offense is downright awful right now. They have virtually no running game, and the passing game is even worse. The Orange do have a solid defense that keeps them in most games. Boston College and Syracuse will both be doing a lot of running in this one, so we'll see the clock keep on ticking away.

The under is 5-0 in Syracuse's last 5. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the ACC. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss by 20 points or more. The under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play 100% CRUSHER* The UTSA Roadrunners and North Texas Mean Green have both been teams I have played the under on successfully all season. I've had this game circled for a while. These are two offensively challenged teams. When they get together, I expect a very low scoring game. In fact, I think there is a good chance the winner of this game won't top 20 points. UTSA has gotten awful quarterback play all year. It's likely that no team has had worse play from the quarterback position over the course of the season. North Texas' defense isn't particularly good, but they'll likely look good when going against this Roadrunners offense. North Texas can only run the ball, if they are forced to throw they are in real trouble. The UTSA defense is actually quite good, and they should do a good job stopping the run.

The under is 7-0 in UTSA's last 7 home games. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 November games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on grass. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss by 20 points or more. A 27-0 angle. Take the under big! *Note- This line has moved down since I originally played it early in the week. I would play this for 5 stars down to 41 points and for 4 stars down to 39 points. Thank you.**

*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Indiana Hoosiers and Purdue Boilermakers have a history of high scoring affairs against each other. Indiana's defense is one of the worst in the nation. Purdue is improved from last year, but the main place they have improved is on the offensive end. The Boilermakers defense gives up big plays very frequently, and I expect Tevin Coleman to have a big day here. Both of these teams like to snap the ball quickly, so we should see both teams get a lot of possessions in this one. The weather shouldn't be bad on Saturday in Indiana, and that helps the over as well. Close game here with both offenses seeing lots of success. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Friday FEAST* The Missouri Tigers and Arkansas Razorbacks get together in an underrated showdown on Friday. This is a game I'm really looking forward to, and there is a lot on the line here. Missouri will represent the SEC East in the SEC title game with a win here. Arkansas has pitched two consecutive shutouts against LSU and Ole Miss at home. The Razorbacks defense is arguably the most improved in the nation this year. Maty Mauk and the Missouri offense have been a big disappointment. The Tigers are in this position because of a very good defense and a lot of timely turnovers. Arkansas runs the ball on nearly every down, and Missouri is running it most of the time as well. A lot of running clock in this game. I see a close game all the way and the defenses having the upper hand. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA Friday Early Bird Special* The Marshall Thundering Herd were passed by the Boise State Broncos in the most recent Playoff rankings. Marshall is fighting to become the top ranked team outside the power five conferences. What does that mean Marshall needs to do? They need to pick up some major style points. Marshall absolutely needs to run up the score at any chance they can. Marshall gets a chance to do that this weekend against one of the worst defenses in the nation. Western Kentucky has allowed 42 points or more on six occasions already this year! The Hilltoppers are going to get gashed by this Marshall offense on the ground and Rakeem Cato will have a monster day through the air. The Hilltoppers do have a very good passing attack with Brandon Doughty at the helm. Doughty and the Hilltoppers have scored on nearly everyone, and I think they'll put up their fair share here too. 

The over is 4-0-1 in Western Kentucky's last 5 after gaining 280 yards or more through the air last game. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The over is 8-1 in Marshall's last 9 after throwing for 280 yards or more last game. A 15-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Totals CASH* The San Antonio Spurs aren't playing as fast on offense as they did last year. What they are doing though is locking opponents down on the defensive end. Indiana has lots of problems scoring right now with injuries depleting them of their best offensive players. The Pacers are going to slow the game down and play their normal gritty defense. The pace should be slower than expected here, and both teams will have to work hard to score. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 Wednesday games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 6-1 in the Spurs last 7 home games. A 16-1 angle here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* Anytime you see an NBA total this low, you have to examine the reasons for that number. Oklahoma City is struggling to find anyone who can score consistently with their ridiculous amount of injury problems. The Thunder have Durant, Westbrook, Andre Roberson, Mitch McGary, Perry Jones, and several others all sidelined. Utah toyed with playing uptempo early this year, but they have slowed down a lot in recent outings. Utah's offense isn't efficient, and it's because they aren't as balanced as most teams in the NBA. Oklahoma City has been excellent on the defensive end at home so far this year. The under is 4-0 in the Thunder's last 4 home games. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Oklahoma City. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Orlando Magic have some serious problems right now. Orlando wasn't any good offensively to start with, and now they have all sorts of injury issues. The Magic are playing without Aaron Gordon for a long time. They are now also without Tobias Harris, who had been their most consistent scorer of late. Harris missed the morning shoot around today, so he is doubtful for tonight's game. Golden State is playing a back to back game here, so I expect them to be a little bit worn down. The Warriors are clearly the much better team and can win this game comfortably, but they might take their foot off the gas a little earlier tonight. The Warriors also have one of the best defenses in the NBA, and the Magic are unlikely to get many open looks here. I think this one stays in the 190's. 

The under is 4-0-1 in Golden State's last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 vs. the NBA Pacific Division. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Orlando between these teams. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Kansas State Wildcats have been shooting a very high percentage so far this year. While it's possible Kansas State will be a bit improved from an offensive perspective, they aren't going to keep shooting the lights out every game like they have been recently. Jamie Dixon's Pitt Panthers are always one of the better defensive teams in the country. The Panthers also play at a very slow tempo all the time. Pitt is having significant problems scoring this year, but they stay in the game with their ball control and strong defense. I think this line is inflated due to Kansas State's recent hot shooting. I had this number at 125 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT Total* The Villanova Wildcats impressed me with their defensive intensity on Monday night against VCU. Villanova made the Rams work extremely hard in the halfcourt sets to get looks at the basket. Michigan was amazingly efficient last year on offense, but without Nik Stauskas I expect them to be much worse this season. The Wolverines always want to slow the game down and they should be able to do that here. Villanova looked to be content playing a halfcourt game last night. Also keep in mind that this game is being played at Barclays Center in New York, so this is a neutral venue which generally lowers the shooting percentages. I had this one set at 129. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are going to try their best to slow this game down. They know they don't have the athleticism to run with Creighton. So far this year, Eastern Illinois has been successful in slowing everyone down that they have played against. Creighton also runs a little less than they did last year. More importantly though, Creighton isn't going to be nearly as good on offense without Doug McDermott, Grant Gibbs, Ethan Wragge, and Johans Manigat. This is an offense that has struggled so far this year, and I think the oddsmakers are being slow to adjust their numbers down. I had this one at 130 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Diego State Aztecs have played some extremely low scoring games so far this year, but most of their opponents have played at a very slow tempo. That will change tonight when they take on BYU. The Cougars are playing at a pace of 75 possessions per game, which is fifth fastest in the nation. San Diego State plays very good defense, but the pure amount of shots that BYU gets in this one should mean the Cougars score quite a few points. The Aztecs offense should also look a lot better when they are going up against a poor defense like BYU. Look for Winston Shephard to have a big game here. I made this total 140 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star VCU/Villanova Total DOMINATION* The VCU Rams can push the tempo as well as anyone in the nation with their "Havoc" full court pressure. While some teams will fight hard to slow the game down, I don't see Villanova being one that does that. The Wildcats like to play fast with their athleticism at all positions. Ryan Arcidiacano is a guard who plays fast and is prone to turnovers at times, which could play into the hands of VCU. Briante Weber's quickness really makes the Rams tough on both ends of the floor. Whoever wins this game is going to have to score a lot of points. Both of these teams have big guys who can run the floor well, which means there is no reason to expect either team will be wanting to slow things down. The tempo should push this one over. Take the over here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* Only five teams in the entire country are playing at a faster tempo than the UCLA Bruins right now. There are 351 teams in college basketball. That tells you how quick the Bruins are playing. The Bruins are loaded with good long range shooters, and they are in a matchup here vs. a Long Beach State team that doesn't play much defense at all. Xavier put up 97 points on Long Beach State earlier this year, and Xavier doesn't have the offensive weapons that UCLA has. Long Beach State has a couple nice scorers in Michael Caffey and Tyler Lamb. The 49ers like to play quickly, and I expect them to put up a good amount of points in this game as well. I made this total 159 points. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of Week* The Florida Atlantic Owls and the Georgia Bulldogs both have a new style of play this year. Michael Curry brings an uptempo system to Florida Atlantic. The Owls haven't been very good on offense so far this year, but they are going to get up a lot of shots in this game. Georgia is playing far faster than they have in recent years. In fact, the Bulldogs are averaging seven possessions more per game compared to last season.

That's an amazing change in just one season. Georgia has scored 73, 80, and 82 points in their three games this year. Against inferior competition they put up 80 and 82 points, and Florida Atlantic definitely doesn't have the same kind of talent that Georgia has. The Bulldogs backcourt is really quick and they'll get to the basket with ease in this game. A total this low is a big play for me with both teams turning up the tempo this year. I made this total 143 points. Take the over big! 

*3 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Tampa Bay Bucs and Chicago Bears meet at Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon. The conditions are going to be ugly for this one. There is a 100 percent chance of rain according to current forecasts, and the wind is expected to be 20 mph blowing off of Lake Michigan. Anyone who has been to Chicago knows that the winds can be very tough to deal with here. Both of these teams have been relying more on their passing attacks lately, but I don't expect those to work well in this weather. The field will be a total mess as well with heavy rain throughout. Neither of these offenses has proven to be all that good to start with, and with an ugly field and a heavy wind it will make it much tougher to score. 

The under is 4-0 in the Bucs last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 150 rushing yards or more last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games played on grass. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 in November. A 16-0 angle. 

Look for a sloppy low scoring game. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* The Nevada Wolfpack offense has gradually gotten better throughout the course of the year. Cody Fajardo is a real star for Nevada, and he's playing in the final home game of his career here. Fresno State's defense hasn't slowed down anyone all year, and it's hard to see them slowing down Nevada's balanced attack here. While Nevada's defense appeared improved earlier this year, the Wolf Pack defense has been awful in recent weeks. Fresno State still has a lot of talent on the offensive end. The Bulldogs should be able to make some big plays on offense here. Look for a shootout in this rivalry game. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA FB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boise State Broncos offense has been tremendous this year, but their defense is way down from the level they have been at in recent years. Boise State's defense has given up at least 27 points in six straight games. Wyoming isn't particularly good on offense, but the Cowboys offense has been much better on their home field. Boise State has scored 50 points or more on offense in three of their last five games. They might not get there in this one, but if they get into the 40's we have a very good shot of cashing this play.

The over is 5-0 in Boise State's last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a straight up win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground. The over is 4-0 in Wyoming's last 4 following a loss. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star USC/UCLA Top Play Total* The UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans are bitter rivals. Both of these teams have had this game circled for a very long time. USC has gotten some tremendous quarterback play from Cody Kessler this year. Kessler has thrown 29 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and he has completed 70.2% of his passes. Brett Hundley has been running the ball more often of late, and his dual threat ability makes this Bruins offense much better. Two very good quarterbacks should put on a show in this one. The UCLA defense has been a big disappointment this year, and I expect USC to put up a nice number against them. On the other hand, USC's secondary has had significant problems this year and Hundley is capable of making big plays with his arm as well. High scoring back and forth game here. Take the over big! 

*Note- The line has moved up here since I picked this on Tuesday evening- I would play this for 5 stars up to 63 points. 4 stars up to 65 points. Thank you*

*5 Star TOP Play Under the Radar Total* The North Texas Mean Green have some major problems on offense. They have essentially zero success throwing the football, so if the running game isn't working they are done. FIU has a really bad offense, but they are much improved on defense. This is an FIU defense that definitely has shown they can stop the run, and I see them forcing North Texas to try to beat them through the air. North Texas is still decent on the defensive end, and this FIU team has gotten really bad quarterback play all year. This is going to be an extremely ugly game. I can't imagine anyone wanting to watch this one, but I do like both defenses to hold up their end and keep this game low scoring. Take the under big! 

*Note- This line has moved since I selected it on Tuesday- I would play it for 5 stars down to 48 and for 4 stars down to 46. Thank you.*

*4 Star NCAA FB Totals TKO* The Arkansas Razorbacks defense is one of the most improved in the nation. Arkansas just shutout a pretty decent LSU team last weekend. Bret Bielema's group only allowed 14 points against the top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. Ole Miss has been one of the top defenses in the nation all year long. The Rebels offense has let them down in some big games, and that is why they have lost twice. Arkansas loves to run the football, but I think they'll have a hard time running it against a Ole Miss defense that knows the run is coming. I don't trust Bo Wallace to make big plays for the Rebels, and I see this being a very close low scoring affair. Take the under. 

*3 Star ACC Total Takedown* The Pittsburgh Panthers have almost no passing game. The Syracuse Orange have virtually no passing game. Pittsburgh plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the nation. The Panthers run the play clock all the way down and hand it off nearly every time. That definitely helps an under since it reduces the number of times each offense will get the ball. Syracuse's offense has been bad all year, but the Orange have a good defense. They should be able to at least slow down the Panthers running attack. Syracuse's play calling has been very conservative lately with young quarterbacks under center. This looks like a game where both teams keep it simple and it turns into an ugly low scoring game with a bunch of field goals. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play of the Week* The Colorado State Rams have quietly put together a really nice year. Jim McElwain is doing a great job with this team. He is a terrific offensive mind, and Colorado State has a nice balanced attack. I think this is one of the most underrated offenses in the nation. New Mexico has one of the very worst defenses in the country. The Lobos have given up 499 yards per game this year. New Mexico has allowed 277 yards per game on the ground alone. New Mexico is giving up 34.3 points per game. New Mexico allowed 60 points when they played Boise State this year.

While New Mexico is just brutal on defense, they have been able to run the football on nearly everyone. They are averaging 319 yards per game on the ground. Colorado State's defense is only mediocre. Last year when these two teams got together, the final was 66-42. Both teams had more than 500 yards of total offense in that one. Take the over big here! 

*Note- This line has moved since I first selected it on Tuesday evening. I would play this for 5 stars all the way up to 68.5 and for 4 stars up to 70 points. Thank you*

*4 Star NCAA FB Hidden GEM Total* The Old Dominion Monarchs have a tremendous offense with Taylor Heinecke at quarterback. This Monarchs offense has been able to move the football against every single team they have played against this year. Why haven't they won more games? Old Dominion has an absolutely awful defense. The Monarchs defense is so bad that the head coach has started going for it on most fourth downs on offense because he knows they aren't going to stop the opponent enough times to win. The only way ODU has a chance is to outscore the opposition. Louisiana Tech has a good offense led by Sokol at quarterback and Dixon at running back. They should slice up the ODU defense.

The over is 4-0 in ODU's last 4 games. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 November games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing more than 200 yards on the ground. The over is 3-0-1 in LA Tech's last 4 following an ATS win. A 23-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Washington State Cougars aren't any good this year, but they are definitely going to play a lot faster under new coach Ernie Kent. In their first two games, the Cougars have averaged more than 70 possessions, which is a very quick tempo. Idaho State isn't a good team at all, and the Bengals have been particularly bad on defense in the past few seasons. Idaho State is going to make this Washington State offense look a lot better than they are. Lacy is a good scorer for Washington State, and I expect a big game from him. The tempo here should be much quicker than most expect, which is why I see so much value on the over. I had this one at 137 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star TGIF NBA Play of Day* The Philadelphia 76ers play at the second fastest tempo of any team in the NBA. The Phoenix Suns are the fourth fastest in the league in terms of tempo. When these two get together, you can certainly expect a track meet. I'll be the first to admit that this Sixers offense is dreadfully bad, so counting on them can be a little hard, but the value here is too much to overlook. These teams played twice last season. The final scores in those two games were 115-101 and 124-113. The posted totals were 216 and 213.5. We are getting this one at a much cheaper price. The Suns love to run, and they'll put up a very big number here led by their great guards. If the Sixers offense can be decent at all, this one goes over the total. Value play here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Michigan State Spartans are playing at a slower tempo this year thanks to their inexperience. Tom Izzo no longer has a veteran leader at the point guard spot. Michigan State is still going to compete hard on the defensive end because Izzo's teams always do that, but I expect them to not only play slower, but also be less efficient on offense. It's hard not to be down after you lose Appling, Harris, and Payne. Loyola has been a team that slows the game down for many years, and I don't see them changing that this season. I had this number pegged at 128. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins are playing at an extremely quick tempo this year. While UCLA does lack experience, they aren't lacking in athleticism. That allows them to push the tempo and score in transition at a high rate. Nicholls State clearly has no shot in this game. Nicholls State fouled more than any other team in the nation last year, so UCLA should make a living on the free throw line here. This is a game where UCLA could be pushing the 100 point barrier. Nicholls State likely starts slow, but gets more points in garbage time. I had this one at 156 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona State Sun Devils appear to be slowing the pace down again. With Jahii Carson at the helm the last couple years, Herb Sendek went away from his typical slow tempo. Now that he is gone, Arizona State is back to slowing things down. Loyola Marymount has a new coach and a new slower tempo as well. Arizona State's last game was an ugly 49-39 win. While I certainly don't expect anything like that here, I do think this one is likely to stay in the 120's. Look for a lot of long possessions as the shot clock ticks away. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Arkansas Razorbacks are always one of the fastest paced teams in the nation. They thrive off using defensive pressure to create transition opportunities. Arkansas has athleticism and quickness at all positions this year, and I expect some very high scoring games for the Razorbacks. Wake Forest hasn't been fast in the past, but they have a new coach in Danny Manning. Manning has them playing at a much quicker tempo. The Demon Deacons aren't likely to slow this game down. It probably won't even take good shooting numbers to see this one go over the total. Uptempo all the way here with shots in the first 10 or 15 seconds of the shot clock being the norm. Take the over. 

*3 Star Spurs/Cavs Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Cavaliers started the year playing at a much slower tempo than I expected, but in recent games they have picked up the pace in a big way. Cleveland's offense is getting much more efficient, and after a rare poor game offensively las time against Denver, I think we see the Cavs bounce back offensively here. Cleveland has some real problems on the defensive end. The team defense here is about as bad as you'll see. San Antonio is absolutely a team that can take advantage of that with their amazing ball movement. The Spurs have been a little off the mark offensively most of this year, but I think their offense will be humming in this one against one of the worst defenses in the league.  Both teams prefer to push the pace and both of these offenses can put up points in bunches. This total is set at a very reasonable level.

The over is 8-1 in the Cavs last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. A 16-2 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Sacramento Kings are going to keep playing at a fast pace this year. The Kings early season success has been largely due to their improved defense. While their defense might be a bit better this year, I'm not convinced they can keep playing at the level they have so far this year on the defensive end. New Orleans is number three in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Anthony Davis is a matchup nightmare for just about everyone, and the Pelicans have tons of guys who can shoot it from long range. Sacramento should get their points in transition here too since the Pelicans are below average on the defensive end. The over is 4-0 in the Kings last 4 following a win. The over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Xavier Musketeers have decided to pick up the tempo this year. Xavier has a good freshman class, and the Musketeers will likely be better than most experts are predicting. They put up 93 points in their season opener. Long Beach State is always willing to run, and the 49ers get their best player back tonight. Tyler Lamb was suspended the first two games, but he'll play tonight. He and Michael Caffey are a nice one-two scoring punch for Long Beach State. This is a game where I think we'll see a quick tempo and quite a few fouls because of the aggressiveness of both defenses. I handicapped this game at a total of 151 points. Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Early Morning MONEY* The Iona Gaels and Wofford Terriers tip it off at 7 AM Eastern on Tuesday morning as part of ESPN's 24 hour Tip Off Marathon. Iona is a run and gun type of team, but Wofford is very good at controlling the tempo. These two teams met last year at Iona in the second game of the year, and Iona won 76-55. The Terriers are small favorites here, and the strength of this Wofford team is their backcourt. That should help them slow the game down and keep this one lower scoring than expected. In addition, this game starting at 7 AM should definitely make it harder for the shooters. Needless to say, this isn't a normal time to start a game and that usually hurts scorers. I had this one pegged at 139, so plenty of room for value on the under. A rare early morning play here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Celtics tempo has changed in a big way this year. Boston is pushing it at every opportunity, and that is very beneficial for a team with Rajon Rondo at the point guard spot. Boston has a lot of guys that can get into the paint, and the one thing Phoenix really lacks is a shot blocker on the inside. The Phoenix Suns will likely end the season as one of the top three fastest teams in the league in terms of pace. Phoenix wants to run at every opportunity with a backcourt of Dragic, Bledsoe, and Thomas. This game should be a real track meet. Both offenses have been efficient of late, and the defenses are subpar.

The over is 6-0 in the Celtics last 6 vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more last game. The over is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 after the Celtics gave up 100 points or more last game. The over is 5-0 in the Celtics 5 home games this year. A 33-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic meet on Monday night. Detroit is a different team than they were last year. They are playing much better defense for new coach Stan Van Gundy. I expect that trend to continue since Van Gundy has proven to be a good defensive coach in the past. Detroit has been very poor on offense though. The Pistons rank in the bottom six in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Orlando is just as inefficient on offense. The Magic are unlikely to be as good on offense now with Aaron Gordon out of the lineup also. Orlando's tempo is right around the league average, while Detroit is playing at the fourth slowest tempo in the league. This should be an ugly one. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles will meet late Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. The temperature will slide below 20 degrees as this game moves along. The tendency for the public is to think that cold weather means the game will finish under the posted total, but that hasn't proven true in the past ten years. Since 2004, 65 percent of games played at a temperature of 20 degrees or lower have finished over the posted total. Philadelphia plays with a very quick tempo and they'll get off a bunch of snaps. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense are now in full stride, and the Eagles secondary is still very vulnerable. Mark Sanchez is a nice fit in the Chip Kelly system and McCoy should have a good game here. I love both of these offenses and neither defense impresses me. 

The over is 4-0 in the Eagles last 4 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games following a Monday nighter. The over is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 following a win. The over is 7-0 in the Packers last 7 following a win by 14 points or more. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. A 33-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The UTEP Miners have found a formula that is helping them excel. Sean Kugler realized that the team's old strategy of throwing it every down and trying to outscore the opposition was failing miserably, so he changed the way UTEP would play. The Miners now play at the single slowest tempo of any team in the country. They also run the ball a bunch. They attempt to shorten the game and take pressure off their defense. It has worked very well. North Texas has a miserable offense this year. Dan McCarney's team just doesn't have enough good skill position players. The Mean Green can hold their own on defense. Both teams should run the ball a lot here. I made this total 50 points, so I clearly see a lot of value in this one. North Texas should struggle to score very much, and UTEP will have some long methodical drives. Take the under big here! 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies  have played some abnormally high scoring  games in their past  couple contests. Memphis won high scoring affairs against both the Lakers and  the Kings the past few days. Detroit is  a much different  team  than Sacramento or  Los Angeles. The Pistons are one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA. They also rank 23 out of 30 NBA teams in terms of pace. Memphis ranks 25 out of 30 teams in pace. The Grizzlies also have one of the best defenses in the NBA. It would be a big surprise if Detroit has consistent success on offense in this game. Memphis tends to not blow out their opponent.  Look for a low scoring contest here. The recent high scores in Memphis’ last 2 games give us good line value on the under. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Utah State Aggies are playing with their string quarterback right now. He is doing a decent job holding things together for the team, but he certainly isn't as productive as someone like Keeton or Garretson would be under center. New Mexico has an excellent running game, but the Lobos are awful at throwing the football. The problem for them in this game is Utah State excels at stopping the run. The Aggies know that New Mexico can't throw it, and they will be ready to shut down this Lobos running game. Utah State should be content to kill the clock late after grabbing a nice lead early on here. A lot of moving clock in this one. This total is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play of the Week* The Navy Midshipmen and the Georgia Southern Eagles both run the triple option. It is pretty rare to find a game with two triple option teams squaring off against each other, but that's what we have here. I love playing the under in situations like this because these defenses see the triple option every day in practice. The biggest advantage to running the triple option is generally that the opposition never gets to see it so they struggle to prep for it in just a week or two. In this case the opposing defense sees it all the time and they should be much better at slowing it down than the average team. Having said that, both of those teams have very good quarterbacks who are going to make some big plays. There will be points scored here, but I don't think it gets into the 60's. With both teams running almost every play, the clock will tick away quickly. Expect very long drives that eat up a bunch of time. Take the under big in this one! 

*5 Star TOP Play Big Ten Total* The Indiana Hoosiers passing attack is non existent right now. Indiana had absolutely no depth at quarterback to start the season, and now they are starting their third string quarterback. Zander Diamont has completed less than than 50 percent of his passes, and he has thrown no touchdowns and two picks. Rutgers' defense isn't tremendous, but they have played much better at home. They know Indiana has to run here, so they'll stack up the box. The Rutgers offense has been struggling of late. Gary Nova isn't playing at 100 percent, and that is slowing things down. Indiana used to be a team that would push the tempo in a big way, but they don't do that nearly as much with a freshman third string quarterback under center. Rutgers plays very slowly and we should see a bunch of running clock here. Take the under big! 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks both rank near the bottom of the NBA in offensive efficiency. Orlando is 25th out of 30 teams in the league and Milwaukee is 29th. Milwaukee deserves credit for the way they are playing defense though. The Bucks have been the second best defense in the NBA through the first couple weeks of the year. Jason Kidd is doing a good job getting this young team to buy into his system. Orlando's defense is middle of the pack. With two teams who don't play particularly fast and two teams who generally shoot a very low percentage, a total of 193.5 is several points too high. Take the under here. 

*5 Star TOP Play CRUSHER* The Umass Minutemen really found a gem in quarterback Blake Frohnapfel. He tranferred in from Marshall, and he has been tremendous for the Minutemen. Frohnapfel has 23 touchdowns and has revived an offense that was dreadful the past couple years. UMass is averaging 31 points per game this year. The Minutemen still have one of the worst defenses in the nation though, so they often play in shootouts. UMass allows 35 points per game and their defense is rated number 100 or worse (out of 128) in every major defensive category. Ball State's offense is improved in the last few games with Milas at quarterback. The Cardinals defense has been getting hurt by big plays all year. Both of these teams like to play quickly, so I expect a lot of possessions for both teams. 

The over is 6-0-1 in UMass' last 7 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after running for 100 yards or less last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 450 yards or more of total offense last game. A 15-0 angle. Take the over big! *Note- This is a 5 Star TOP Play for me all the way up to 62 points. This is a 4 star play for me up to 65 points. It would be 3 stars at 65.5 or higher. Thank you.*

*3 Star NHL Fire on Ice Play of Day* The New York Islanders return home for what could be a flat spot on Tuesday night against the Colorado Avalanche. The Islanders just wrapped up a five-game road trip that took them to Denver and then California before a stop in Arizona on Sunday. They head back out on the road on Friday for a back-to-back in the state of Florida. The Avalanche are 0-3-3 on the road since they won at Boston on October 13 and they have not played well at all away from the altitude.

This seems like a bad spot for both teams. The Islanders have one of the league's worst penalty kills, but Colorado has one of the league's worst powerplays. The Avalanche haven't done a whole lot right this season, but they have done a good job killing penalties. The Islanders have done well on the powerplay this season. The Islanders started to buy into defense with three straight unders to end their road trip and Colorado hasn't scored a powerplay goal in their last four games. There's some value on banking on a low scoring game tonight. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Buffalo Bills had a bye week last week. The defense has gotten healthier and they should be ready for a strong effort. Buffalo is eighth in the NFL in total defense, and I consider this Bills defense one of the most underrated units in the NFL. On offense, Buffalo is totally one-dimensional now without Spiller or Jackson in the backfield. Kyle Orton isn't a bad quarterback, but he's certainly not a special one either. The Chiefs have the number one ranked pass defense in the NFL, and Kansas City is going to be ready for the throw here. The Chiefs offense is far from spectacular, and they just do what they have to do to squeak out wins. Kansas City will run the ball a lot here, which keeps the clock moving. Buffalo's defensive front is very strong. These defenses are both excellent. Last year's game finished at 36, and another game in the high 30's is what I see here.

The under is 4-0 in the Chiefs last 4 games. The under is 6-1 in the Chiefs last 7 November games. The under is 4-1 in the Bills last 5 home games. The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The New Mexico State Aggies defense ranks dead last in the nation when it comes to stopping the run. New Mexico State is allowing an eye-popping 325 yards per game on the ground! That's just ridiculous, and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns averaged 6.5 yards per carry last year in the meeting between these two. Lafayette should rumble all over them with their running game in this one as well. New Mexico State's offense put up 35 points last year against Lafayette, and while it might be hard for them to reach that number here, they should score plenty against a Lafayette defense that isn't good. Expect lots of big plays from both teams in this game.

The over is 4-0 in Lafayette's last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The over is 7-0 in New Mexico State's last 7 after gaining 280 yards or more through the air last game. The over is 11-1 in their last 12 after allowing 170 yards passing or less last game. The over is 10-1 in the Aggies last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. A 32-2 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Alabama/LSU Total DOMINATION* The Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers are similar teams in terms of style. Both teams like to play slowly and win with their strong defense. Alabama plays at a slower pace than any other power conference team in the entire nation. LSU's offense really can't throw the football much at all this year, and the Tigers are totally reliant on the running game. Alabama's rushing defense is ranked second in the nation when it comes to stopping the run allowing only 77.6 yards per game. LSU is going to have to run the football to score many points here, and I don't think they'll be able to do it. LSU's defense struggled early in the year, but the Tigers are very talented on the defensive end and they are playing much better of late. This shapes up to be a game where both teams look to run the ball often, which will keep the clock rolling. A low scoring hard hitting game. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Louisville Cardinals defense played a bad second half last week against Florida State, and that cost them an upset victory. Fortunately for them, they won't have to face an offense the caliber of Florida State this week. Louisville's defense is still one of the best in the country. The Boston College Eagles defense is playing really hard for Steve Addazio, and I think you have to be impressed with the job he is doing with this team. Both of these teams struggle throwing the ball. There should be a bunch of running in this game. The strength of both defenses is stopping the run. I had this one lined at 42 points, so I see several points of value on this play.

The under is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 November games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after throwing for 280 yards or more last game. A 14-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Big 10 Total DOMINATION* The Northwestern Wildcats offense has been pitiful of late. Michigan's offense has been awful all year long. Don't let Michigan's decent offensive performance last week fool you. That was against an Indiana defense that is among the worst in the nation. Northwestern's defense has been solid this year, and that's the only reason the Wildcats have been able to hang around in most of their games. Michigan's defense is ninth in the nation in total defense. That will probably surprise a lot of people to see that, but it just shows how poor their offense has been. The Wolverines defense is fine, but the offense is in lots of trouble. Last year when these two met, there were a grand total of 18 points scored in regulation (all field goals). Expect another ugly game here. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Totals Takedown* The Arizona State Sun Devils defense isn't very good. They have looked better in recent weeks, but that was against teams that don't have a good offense. It's one to slow down Utah (one-dimensional), Washington (were without their starting quarterback), and Stanford (poor offensively this year), but it's going to be a whole different thing to try to slow down the Notre Dame offense. Everett Golson has this offense moving well against everyone. I see no reason to believe Arizona State will slow them down. The Notre Dame defense looked good early in the year, but they have been exposed of late. In their past three games they have allowed 43, 31, and 39 points in their last three games. Taylor Kelly is getting healthier and the Sun Devils have plenty of weapons offensively. Last year's game finished 37-34, and I see a similar type of game here. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Syracuse Orange have been really bad on offense all year, and now they are going to have a third string quarterback starting in this one. I don't think that will help anything here. Duke is going to load up the box and force Syracuse to have to throw it, and they likely won't be able to. While the Syracuse offense is in a lot of trouble here, the Orange have been excellent on the defensive end. The strength of the Syracuse defense is their front seven, and that's very big for the under here since Duke is primarily a running team. Duke isn't as good as their record would indicate, and I don't think they'll run away with this one. I had this total set at 47 points. Take the under in this contest. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Golden Gophers overachieve every single year. Why are they able to do that so consistently? Jerry Kill is a really good coach, and the coaching staff around him is great at getting the most out of the talent they have. Iowa's defense seems to reload and be solid against the run every single year. The Minnesota Golden Gophers absolutely cannot throw the football, and Iowa's defensive coaches know that. They are going to load the box and make it really hard to run the ball. Iowa's physicality in the defensive front seven is going to be tough for Minnesota to match. Iowa's offense has looked better of late, but they haven't played all that well on the road in the past couple seasons. Minnesota's defense always plays hard. 

The under is 5-0 in the Hawkeyes last 5 games following a win by 20 points or more. The under is 5-0 in Minnesota's last 5 after giving up 170 yards or less in the passing game. The under is 4-0 in Minnesota's last 4 after a loss. The under is 4-0 in the Gophers last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA RED HOT Run CASH* The Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings have a long history of playing uptempo high scoring games against each other. Phoenix is making an even bigger effort to run this year. Why wouldn't they? The Suns backcourt has Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic, and Isaiah Thomas who are all absolutely speed burners. The Suns big men (Morris twins and Plumlee) aren't particularly good at sitting in the low post, but they can run the floor extremely well. Sacramento is always glad to run the floor, and their coaching staff is loaded with coaches who have a history of pushing the tempo. They put up 131 points in their last win. Rudy Gay is a scoring machine, and Cousins will have an advantage in the interior. Five of the last six meetings between these two have finished at 210 points or higher. Expect lots of transition buckets and a bunch of points here. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks have both improved a great deal on the defensive end from last year. Both of these teams have new coaches and that has led to a much more concerted effort on the defensive end. Jason Kidd is preaching defense in a big way, and the Bucks have several athletic shot blockers down low. Detroit didn't even pretend to try on defense last year, but Stan Van Gundy won't allow that this season. In addition to two improved defenses, we have two offenses that aren't efficient at all. Both of these teams rank in the bottom six teams in the NBA in terms of offensive efficiency so far this year. All three referees here are what I would consider good draws for an under play. I made this line 189.5. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Knicks/Nets Total DOMINATION* The Brooklyn Nets played fast in their first couple games this year, but that was before Brook Lopez came back in the lineup. With Lopez back, the team slows the pace down quite a bit. Lopez also provides the team with a good defender in the middle of the paint. New York is playing at a far slower pace than any team in the NBA through the first few games. The Knicks are still learning their new offense, and it seems like that has caused them to be more cautious and hesitant. Two of three referees in this game are favorable for this under play as well. Look for a game that is played in the halfcourt. This line is several points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Totals Takedown* The Sacramento Kings rank fifth in the NBA in terms of pace. Denver ranks third in the NBA in pace. When these two meet, you are going to see a lot of transition opportunities and quick shot attempts. While both teams have solid defensive numbers so far this year, I'm not buying that these are two of the best defenses in the NBA. The Kings have a lot of guys on their roster who can score in bunches, but they haven't committed themselves on defense in their career. These two teams met last week in Denver and the Kings won 110-105. The referee assignments for this game are helpful as well. Scott Foster is consistently one of the best over refs in the league, and he is the lead referee tonight. Josh Tiven is also a nice over referee. There should be plenty of pace here and a good amount of trips to the stripe too. Take the over. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Play of Week* The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors both made it clear in the preseason that they want to play far faster than they did last season. We're already seeing evidence of that from both teams. Boston is second in the NBA so far this averaging 108 points per game. Toronto has scored at least 100 points in every game this year, and they are averaging 104.8 points per contest. I like both of these coaches, and I think they are both making a wise decision to push the tempo based on their personnel. These are two teams that have depth in the backcourt and not a whole lot of inside scoring on the roster. Since these teams didn't play particularly fast last year, the oddsmakers take some time responding to the new look of the team. That allows us to have some value playing the over with them for the first couple weeks. Also, Boston ranks 25th in FG percentage defense and Toronto ranks 29th. There should be lots of quick easy buckets in this one.

The over is 5-0 in the Celtics last 5 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Celtics last 4 vs. the Atlantic Division. The over is 4-0 in Toronto's last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. A 13-0 angle. Take the over big! *Please note this line has moved up since I selected it shortly after the open. I would still play this for 5 stars up to 205, 4 stars to 206.5, and 3 stars to 208. Thank you!*

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Rockets are playing at a little bit slower pace this year. They are also playing much better on the defensive end. Their offense isn't quite as potent without Chandler Parsons, but their defense is better. Miami isn't going to be a team that plays terribly fast, and I think the Heat's defense will still rank in the top half of the league despite losing James. Houston's lines have been set too high all year, and I don't think this one is any different. The Rockets defense is stepping up, and a line of 204 is simply too high. I made this line 199.5 points, so I see a few points of value in this one. 

The under is 6-0 in the Rockets last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers offense that was a mess when these two teams met earlier this year is now firing on all cylinders. Big Ben and his solid group of wide receivers will make plenty of plays in this one. The Steelers running game has been better than expected this year as well. Joe Flacco is playing some terrific football of late, and the Ravens offense is playing at a different pace now than they have in the past. Baltimore ranks sixth in the NFL in tempo, so they are getting off a lot of snaps. I see value in this number because of the past history of these teams. When you think of Steelers vs. Ravens you think defense and lots of hard hits. These defenses aren't what they used to be, and both of the offenses are better. The winner of this game is going to have to put up a solid amount of points. 

The over is 4-0 in the Ravens last 4 games on grass. The over is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 13-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz have vowed to pick up the pace with Quin Snyder at the helm. He wants the team to move more quickly and pass the ball more often. The Phoenix Suns could end up as the highest scoring team in the NBA this year. I love their pickup of Isaiah Thomas. He teams up with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe to create a ridiculously quick backcourt for the Suns. Phoenix pushed it some last year, but their tempo should be off the charts quick this season. Utah's defense isn't good at all (they were worst in the NBA last year), and the Suns were in the bottom ten as well. This game should be played at a quick tempo and we'll see lot of possessions for each team. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Conference USA Total* The UTEP Miners have changed their stripes in a big way this year. What's different about this team? It's a team that used to have a ton of high scoring games because of a fast tempo and a horrible defense. Their defense still isn't very good, although they did pitch a shutout last week, but UTEP is now slowing the game down in a big way. UTEP is using up the play clock every single time. The Miners are playing at the slowest pace of any team in FBS right now. The oddsmakers are struggling to react to that change from a team that is off the radar of many. For a few more games we should be able to get value on the under. Southern Miss is a one-dimensional offense, and they won't be able to take advantage of UTEP's weak run defense. Take the under. 

*3 CFB Totals Takedown* The San Jose State Spartans defense looked really bad last weekend at Navy. San Jose State has played pretty well at home on defense, but this Colorado State offense is much better than the offenses they have been up against. It's one thing to slow down UNLV, but it's a whole different thing to stop the well-balanced Colorado State offense. The Rams can run it or throw it equally well, and they have an improved offensive line. San Jose State is getting solid production out of Gray, and Colorado State's defense has given up a lot of points in the second half of games this year. This number is set too low. I had this number at 59. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Totals Cash* The UNLV Rebels defense is one of the worst in the nation. In fact, they are 124th in the nation out of 128 in total defense. They are giving up 525 yards of total offense per game. Last year, New Mexico rolled up 581 yards of offense in a 56-42 loss to UNLV. The Lobos offense is great at running the football, and UNLV can't stop the run. The Lobos aren't able to throw it, but they won't need to against the Rebels. UNLV's offense has been inconsistent this year, but playing against a slow defense like New Mexico should allow UNLV's speedsters at the skill positions to have another big game. I made this line 65 points. Take the over.

*Note- This line has moved up significantly since I selected it on Tuesday. I would play this for 4 stars up to 59. I would play it for 3 stars up to 62. Thank you.*

*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Idaho Vandals and Arkansas State Red Wolves both like to play fast. These are teams that want to get off as many snaps as possible. Arkansas State has moved the ball against just about everyone they have played, and they played a tough non-conference schedule. Idaho's defense is one of the worst in the nation. The Vandals are unlikely to be able to slow down Kneighten and this Red Wolves attack. Linehan has done a good job for Idaho at quarterback and Arkansas State's defense isn't even close to as good as they have been in the past couple years. Look for lots of scoring opportunities for both teams. Take the over.

*Note- This line has moved up significantly since I posted this pick on Tuesday- I would play this for 4 stars up to 65 and for 3 stars up to 68 points. Thank you.*

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The USC Trojans have a totally different team this year than they did last season. Steve Sarkisian has this team playing much faster on the offensive end. Cody Kessler is doing a great job for this team at the quarterback spot. In fact, I think Kessler has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country so far this year. Kessler is completing 70 percent of his passes, and he has thrown 20 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Washington State's defense is ranked 113th out of 128 FBS teams in pass defense. The Trojans are going to put up a lot of points. At the same time, the Washington State offense isn't the reason this team is 2-6. The Cougars are 7th in the nation in total offense and first in the nation in passing yards per game at 490 passing yards per contest. USC is a bit weaker in the secondary this year than normal. Both teams like to play fast and there will be a bunch of passes thrown in this game.

The over is 5-0 in the Cougars last 5 following a double digit home loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 450 total yards or more last game. The over is 6-0 in the Cougars last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The over is 4-0 in the Trojans last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two at Washington State. A 27-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB SEC Total* The Missouri Tigers offense has been one of the most disappointing in the nation. Missouri simply can't get the passing game going, so opposing defenses are loading the box and making it tough for the Tigers to run the football. Kentucky's defense is much better than they have been in the past, and they have been able to handle most teams running games. The Wildcats offense looked good in the non-conference action, but against SEC defenses, and especially on the road, they have been poor. Missouri leads the SEC in sacks and the Kentucky offensive line will struggle to keep this group away from Towles. I don't expect to see much scoring here. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total* The Georgia Bulldogs have really played well this year. They put up a poor performance in South Carolina and it cost them, but I've been really impressed with the way they have responded to that loss. Georgia has elevated their level of play in a big way on the defensive end. The Bulldogs stop the run well. Florida's offense is a total mess right now, and the only thing the Gators can do is run it. I don't think any of the Gators QB's can throw it effectively against Georgia. The Bulldogs offense is run heavy, and why wouldn't they be? Even without Gurley, Georgia has a ton of talented running backs and Chubb has been tremendous for them. Both teams will run the ball a bunch here. Florida's defense has been excellent in every game other than the Alabama game. This game means a lot to both teams. Look for a lot of defense in this one. Take the under big! 

*Note- This line has moved in a big way since I selected it on Tuesday. I would play this one for 5 Stars down to 50, for 4 stars down to 48, and for 3 stars down to 46. Thank you*

*3 Star CFB ACC Total Value* The Syracuse Orange have some major problems on offense right. That has overshadowed some really nice performances by the defense so far this year. Last week's 16-6 loss at Clemson was a good example of that. I played the under in that one and cashed in, and I'm going to take the under again. NC State's offense has been really inconsistent this year, and the Wolfpack defense is improved. I don't think either of these offenses have what it takes to put together consistent long drives in this game. Expect a sloppy low scoring game. Take the under.

*Note- This line has moved against me- I would play this one for 4 stars at 51 points or higher. Thank you.*

*4 Star NBA Red HOT Run Total* By all accounts, the Sacramento Kings want to run this year. They hired a coaching staff that wants to push the tempo and go small as often as possible. While the Kings first game finished at a low score, it wasn't because the teams played slowly. In fact, Sacramento and Golden State played out to the single fastest pace of any game thus far in the NBA season. Both teams just shot the ball really poorly. Portland had one of the most efficient offenses in the league all year last year and the Kings don't have an answer to guys like Aldridge and Lillard on the defensive end. This line is definitely an overreaction to the Kings low scoring game in the opener. Too much value here to pass up. Take the over. 

*3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION* The Nashville Predators and Calgary Flames are among the best defensive teams in the league, but it's the offensive injuries for the Flames that make the under an attractive play in Friday night's action. Mason Raymond, the leading goal scorer, and Matt Stajan are both out with injuries and the team's best playmaker, Joe Colborne, is day-to-day with a wrist problem. On a team that struggles to score, any forward injuries are a concern and they certainly are here. It should be noted that Jonas Hiller is the first of the two Calgary goalies to get back-to-back starts, so he should respond well to that because he'll want to keep getting playing time.
Nashville, on the other hand, has had really inconsistent offense this season. James Neal scored three of his team-leading five goals in one game and Shea Weber has just two goals since the second game of the season. The Predators have not allowed more than three goals in a game and they've only allowed three goals twice, with a shootout loss accounting for a third goal against Calgary earlier this season. This should be a very low scoring affair with each team trying to win with defense and goaltending. Take under 5. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks are implementing a faster style of play with Jason Kidd as coach this year. Milwaukee's roster fits a fast paced offense much better than a slow it down style. Jabari Parker will be a nice piece in his rookie season, and I expect good seasons from O.J. Mayo and Brandon Knight. Philadelphia is all about running and gunning. The 76ers are a terrible team, but they are going to put up as many shots as they can. Coach Brown has them in shape and he expects them to run for four quarters every single game. You won't see much effort on the defensive end from these guys though. This looks like a game where both teams put up a lot of quick shots and even with a relatively low shooting percentage it finishes over the total.

The over is 9-0 in the 76ers last 9 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss by 10 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 or more in their previous game. The over is 4-0 in Milwaukee's last 4 Friday games. The over is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 on Friday. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 or more in the previous game. A 35-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Orlando Magic plan to pick up the tempo this year. Coach Vaughan has said all throughout the preseason that he believes his team's best chance to win is to speed up the game with their athletes. With youngsters like Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton on the roster, I do expect the Magic to have success in transition. Orlando won't be very good defensively though, and the Wizards should get plenty of easy buckets. Washington has a big mismatch on the inside, and look for the Wizards to dominate the offensive glass and get a lot of easy putbacks. Orlando stayed under the total in their first game against a New Orleans team that likes to slow the tempo down, but Washington prefers to run as well. John Wall is at his best in transition. Both teams should push the pace here. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers look a whole lot different than they did last year. Indiana is without the injured Paul George. George isn't the only key injury though. The Pacers are going to be without David West, George Hill, and CJ Watson in this game. That means Donald Sloan will start at the point guard here. Lance Stephenson is no longer on the team, and he was their second best scoring option in the backcourt last year. Without George, West, Stephenson, and their two point guards, the Pacers have some real offensive question marks. The team they are up against has all kinds of issues too though. The 76ers are without Michael Carter-Williams for this game. Joel Embiid is out with an injury as is Jason Richardson. This is a Sixers team that loves to play fast and push the pace, but the Pacers aren't going to want any part of that. Even though Philadelphia played fast last year, they had the least efficient offense in the league.

Late last year, with both teams at full strength, these two played to a final score of 99-90. I expect a really ugly game here. Neither team is going to be good. The Pacers have a good defense with Roy Hibbert in the middle though, and they should control the tempo. Take the under.  

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Cardinals secondary ranks second to last in the NFL in pass defense so far this year. With the offensive line starting to play better (and get healthy) Nick Foles' production should continue to improve in the passing game for Philadelphia. McCoy is too good of a runner to be completely shut down in the long run. The Eagles defense has been opportunistic, and they have created a bunch of scores on that side of the ball. Philadelphia's defense still isn't very good overall though, and the Eagles will have trouble slowing down this Arizona offense. The Eagles don't have the secondary to stop Carson Palmer and the Cardinals talented wide receivers. Both teams score plenty in this one. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The Utah Utes and USC Trojans meet in what should be a really good game Saturday night in Utah. One thing most people forget about the Utah Utes is they have a tremendous home field advantage thanks to the elevation they play at. USC's weakness is their lack of depth. I think the Trojans offense will be far less effective than they have been in recent weeks in the elevation here. Utah's offense has transformed in a way that means they run the ball nearly every down. The Utes have been getting such poor play from their quarterbacks that this team is just handing it off to Booker constantly. That helps the total in a couple ways. Number one it means the clock keeps rolling here. Number two it plays into the strength of the USC defense which is stopping the run. I think this game is much lower scoring than most expect.

The under is 3-0-1 in Utah's last 4 conference games. The under is 8-1-1 in USC's last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in Utah's last 4 overall. The under is 7-1-1 in Utah's last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-2 angle. Take the under big. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Month* The Ohio State Buckeyes have scored at least 50 points in four straight games. I'm not sure the Buckeyes can get to 50 points against a decent Penn State defense, but I think they can get a lot closer than most believe. J.T. Barrett has been absolutely amazing quarterbacking this Ohio State team. The Buckeyes offense is having play makers step up around him as well. They have talent at the wide receiver position and they have two very good tight ends. The Buckeyes have found a very good runner in Ezekiel Elliot. Ohio State is going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. The Buckeyes defense still has a long ways to go though. Hackenberg and the Nittany Lions should break some big plays against a secondary that still isn't very good. I expect Ohio State to jump out to a lead and keep their foot on the gas. The Nittany Lions score plenty to push this one over.

The over is 5-0 in the Buckeyes last 5 overall. The over is 6-0 in the Buckeyes last 6 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 20 points or less. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS win. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 40 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after a win by 20 points or more. A 33-0 angle. Take the over big! TOP Total of the Month 

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Clemson Tigers offense isn't the same without DeShaun Watson under center. I really think Watson is going to be a tremendous player in this offense, but he's out with a broken hand now. Cole Stoudt is the man getting the start here, and Stoudt is dinged up himself. Behind Stoudt, the Clemson offense has struggled to get going. Syracuse isn't any good on offense, and the Clemson defense is one of the best in the country. Look for the Tigers defensive line to flex their muscles in this one. Clemson also lost their top running back last week, so the Tigers have some real issues on offense. I see a defensive struggle here.

The under is 4-0 in Clemson's last 4 games after giving up less than 20 points. The under is 6-0 in Clemson's last 6 following a win. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 275 yards or less. The under is 7-0 in Clemson's last 7 after gaining 125 yards or less on the ground in 2 straight games. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Total Value* This is the perfect combination of two teams who throw the ball nearly every play and two secondaries who are just dreadful when it comes to defending the pass. Doughty is having a tremendous season under Coach Brohm at Western Kentucky and this Old Dominion defense may be the worst he has faced all year. Heinecke is a star in the making for ODU and the NFL scouts really like him a lot. Both of these teams play very fast and there are going to be a bunch of possessions in this game. Look for this one to get into the 80's as both teams light up the scoreboard. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Toledo Rockets and UMass Minutemen both like to air it out early and often. Neither team is any good at defending the pass. The Minutemen have gotten a major boost from transfer quarterback Blake Frohnapfel who has been far better than most expected. UMass has been getting better and better offensively every week. This is a team that was awful offensively last year and the oddsmakers are having a hard time catching up to their new style of play. Toledo's offense is way too quick and athletic for a poor UMass defense. The Rockets had a week off before this game and their offense should be clicking with some key injured players getting back in the lineup. Bombs away in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Navy Midshipmen run the football nearly every down, and San Jose State likes to run the football as well. I like playing unders with teams that run it this often because the clock keeps ticking and there are far fewer plays. San Jose State's offense took a big hit when their best running back was suspended indefinitely this week. The Spartans defense has been pretty good against the run and they have played a triple option team a lot in recent years so this is more familiar to them. Navy's Keenan Reynolds is banged up and that is slowing down this Midshipmen offense. The under is 8-1 in Navy's last 9 after scoring 40 points or more. The under is 4-0 in SJ State's last 4 on turf. A 12-1 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total DOMINATION* The Boise State Broncos and BYU Cougars both like to play at a quick tempo. That means we'll see plenty of snaps in this one, which is obviously a big boost for an over play. The posted total here comes in several points below where I expected it. These two teams combined for 967 yards of total offense when they met last year. Both defenses are significantly worse than they were last season. Grant Hedrick and the Boise State offense have put up 51 and 37 points in the last two games. Christian Stewart is doing a solid job at quarterback for BYU. The Cougars topped 600 yards in a 42-35 loss to Nevada last week. Both of these teams are turnover prone, and a defensive score or two here wouldn't be a big surprise. The public perception of these two teams as strong defenses is no longer the case. That's giving us value on the over. The over is 4-0 in BYU's last 4 games. The over is 6-2 in Boise State's last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the over big! 

*3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Lightning have to adjust to life without one of their best players for the second straight season. After losing Steven Stamkos to a broken leg last season, Victor Hedman will miss a significant portion of the first half of the season with a broken finger. The Winnipeg Jets scored six goals on opening night and have scored five goals in five games since. They have not scored a powerplay goal yet, though the Jets have done a good job staying in games because of their penalty kill.
In Hedman, the Lightning lose a key playmaker on defense and the quarterback of their powerplay. Generally, injuries like that push more conservative, defense-first defensemen up the depth chart and that should lead to some more unders in Tampa Bay games over the next couple of weeks. In two full games without Hedman, the Lightning have scored three goals. The Jets are clearly having all sorts of offensive troubles with their best player, Evander Kane, on the shelf with a knee injury.
Expect a low-scoring game between these two teams as Tampa Bay looks to save some energy for Saturday's game in Minnesota and the Jets keep struggling to generate offense without Kane. Take the under.

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bears have a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They covered them up well last week in Atlanta, but I don't think they'll be able to keep the Dolphins down that well. The Bears offense is rolling right now. Jay Cutler is finally getting comfortable in this offense, and his wideouts will have some major height advantages on the Dolphins smaller corners. It might also surprise you to learn that the team who is playing second fastest from a tempo perspective so far this year is the Miami Dolphins (behind only the Eagles with Chip Kelly's fast paced attack). I expected this total to be around 52 points, and finding four points of value in the NFL is difficult. Take the over. 

*4 Star SEC Total Takedown* I was extremely impressed by the Georgia Bulldogs defense in their win last week over Missouri. Georgia's defense totally stonewalled a pretty decent Missouri offense led by Maty Mauk in that game. They pitched a shutout on the road in Columbia. Arkansas' defense gave up only 14 points against an Alabama offense with a bunch of weapons too. These are two teams that stop the run well. That's important here because that's pretty much all these two offenses do. That being said, I see a lot of running clock and solid work from both defenses in the front seven. A tight game here with the defenses controlling. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The SMU Mustangs are a really bad football team. They did show a little bit of hope on the offensive end in their last game against East Carolina though. As bad as the SMU offense is, they should be able to score several times on Cincinnati who is among the worst defenses in the nation. The Bearcats secondary has been absolutely torn up by everyone this year. SMU's defense is awful, and Gunner Kiel and the Bearcats passing game is excellent. Cincinnati could throw for 500 plus yards in this game and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. I expect Cincinnati to score at least 40 points in this one. 

The over is 4-0 in SMU's last 4 overall. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 October games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 40 plus points in a game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 280 yards or more through the air. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after losing by 20 points or more. The over is 10-1 in their last 11 following a loss. A 33-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star ACC Total Value* The Clemson Tigers aren't the same team without DeShaun Watson at quarterback. Watson broke his hand last week in the team's narrow victory over Louisville. The Tigers offense was a mess after Watson left. Cole Stoudt has experience, but he just isn't all that good. Stoudt is also playing slightly dinged up, so Clemson's playbook will probably look a little different this week. Look for more running from Clemson and not quite as quick of a tempo. Boston College will play to force Stoudt to beat them through the air and I don't think he can do it. The Eagles slow the game down and like to run the ball a bunch, so the clock should keep ticking away in this one. I think this one is a real defensive battle. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB MAC Total Takedown* The Central Michigan Chippewas have a couple great offensive players in Titus Davis and Thomas Rawls. Both of these guys missed time earlier this year, and the Chippewas offense struggled. Rawls has carried it 40 times in both of the team's last two games. He has quickly become the best running back in the MAC. Davis was great last year and he's getting cranked up again now that he's healthy. He's the best receiver in the MAC, and no one from this Ball State secondary can match his athleticism. Ball State plays quickly and they have found a better quarterback the last couple weeks who helps them move the ball. The Chippewas defense is no better than mediocre. This posted total is a few points too low. Take the over.