Sports Picks & Predictions

*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers hired a Virginia assistant coach (Ron Sanchez) to take over their job. Everyone knows Virginia plays extremely slowly, and that's what Charlotte will try to do this year as well. The 49ers have played really fast under previous coach Mark Price. It will be a big adjustment to this offense, and I think they'll be pretty inefficient in this system for a while.

Chattanooga has a coach who previously coached under Bo Ryan. That means he wants to value the ball and slow the game down. The Mocs weren't very good on defense last year, but they have improved shot blockers in the low post this year and I see their defensive numbers improving quite a bit.

A slow tempo for a number this high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Rams offense has all sorts of weapons. Cooper Kupp is now back in the fold, and he's been a great fit for this offensive system. Jared Goff is playing with all sorts of confidence right now. 

The Rams are 4th in the NFL in yards per play, and their offense is healthier this week. The Rams have a top three passing attack in the NFL, and they are up against a very weak secondary in the Saints. Eli Apple has been a major liability for this Saints secondary since coming over, and the Rams have the guys to take advantage of his weakness in coverage. The Saints are without Marcus Davenport as well, and he's a big loss as they try to rush the passer and disrupt the Rams rhythm. Look for Jared Goff and company to have a lot of success through the air here. 

The Rams also have arguably the best running back in the NFL in Todd Gurley. The Saints have a good run defense, but they can't be as aggressive against the run as they normally are in this one. 

The New Orleans Saints offense ranks 8th in the NFL in yards per play. Drew Brees can still sling it around, and he leads a very balanced attack. Kamara is a complete player who fits brilliantly in the system. The Saints have multiple very good route runners at wide receiver. If they need to run with power, the Rams defense ranks 26th against the run so far this year.

New Orleans is excellent on offense in general, but they are elite offensively in the Superdome. 

Both teams prefer to play quickly, and I see a back and forth high scoring game here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has been a lot better with Ryan Fitzpatrick out there than Jameis Winston so far this year. Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL in yards per play. They are very explosive with a deep ball threat from Jackson on the outside and Evans is one of the best receivers in the NFL as well. The Panthers secondary ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in pass defense.

Carolina ranks first in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. The Bucs defense is below average against the run, and they are dead last in pass defense. Cam Newton is starting to play better, and he Tampa Bay's defense is badly banged up now. 

Both quarterbacks are capable of big plays both ways. Fitzpatrick and Newton are prone to pick-sixes and/or big gainers. That helps the over significantly. The Panthers are a pretty big favorite here, and Tampa Bay showed last week how quick they can put up points late in a game where they are behind and the opposition is playing a prevent defense.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The AFC North has been a tremendous division to bet the under in the past decade. The under is 59-34 (63.4% wins) in an AFC North contest with a total of 41 or higher. This is a hard hitting division where the teams know each other very well and the defenses typically have the upper hand.

The Steelers defense looked very weak in the first couple games of the year, but they are now all the way up to 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Baltimore is 1st in yards per play allowed. 

Pittsburgh's offense is 6th in yards per play, while Baltimore is only 27th. The Steelers have been much worse offensively on the road the last few seasons though. 

The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Pittsburgh. This is a game that means a bunch to both teams and I think this number is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The USC Trojans have a new play caller in this game (Clay Helton) and they get to go against the weakest defense in the Pac 12. In fact, Oregon State ranks 127th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. USC is expected to get JT Daniels back for this game, and the USC passing game has a huge advantage here. USC's receivers should have a big day with a lot of open space and height advantages for them over the DB's. Oregon State is allowing a whopping 8.2 yards per play in Pac 12 action this season.

USC's defense has disappointed this year. Oregon State's offense has been much better than expected this season. Jake Luton came back last week for Oregon State and he threw for more than 300 yards against Colorado despite not playing any the first half. He gives the team a much better quarterback now. Look for Oregon State to get some big plays on offense as well. USC is without star linebacker Porter Gustin.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Tulane is all about running the football, and that's a good thing against this USF defense. USF has a good secondary, but they are weak in the front seven. USF ranks 103rd in yards per carry allowed. Tulane's offense ranks 42nd in the nation in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. Look for Tulane to run the ball early and often in this option offense and get some big gainers here.

South Florida's offense plays at a very quick tempo. The Bulls rank 8th in the nation in pace of play. They are up against a Tulane defense that ranks 81st in defensive yards per play when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. The Bulls should be able to move the ball well here. USF has a lot of speed on offense, and that should be hard for Tulane to defend.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* UMass was involved in a low scoring game against UConn due to the weather last week. They are going to be involved in another game with pretty extreme weather here, and I have to take under this high of a number.

The average forecast for this game calls for sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts to 55 or 60 mph. That kind of weather completely changes the game. In fact, 20 mph sustained winds have made the under hit at a little over 63% in CFB in the long term. In this one we get sustained winds of that amount and some ridiculous gusts. 

While neither defense is good- it is important to note that UMass is without star quarterback Andrew Ford. Also, both of these teams are much worse running the football than throwing it. If the weather forecasts are right, they'll have to run it more here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have a way of making everything high scoring. This is a really explosive offense with Jordan Ta'amu at the helm, but they also might have the worst defense in the SEC. 

South Carolina has moved to an uptempo offense. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the country in terms of pace of play. That will mean a bunch of possessions for both offenses, and Ole Miss games have a lot of big plays both ways because of their strong offense and weak defense. 

The SEC doesn't normally see these shootouts, so the oddsmakers kept the total a little too low here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Texas A&M and Auburn meet on Saturday afternoon. Auburn has been a great under team so far this year, and I don't see that changing here. 

Texas A&M ranks 112th in the nation in tempo. The Aggies are trying to establish a run game more with Jimbo Fisher as their head coach. The problem for them here is Auburn's defensive line is tremendous, and they should get into the backfield often.

Auburn's offensive line is a major problem, and Texas A&M has been strong on the defensive front this year. Stidham isn't playing with any confidence. 

Auburn has forced every game this year into a low scoring battle, and Texas A&M wants a physical low scoring game as well. The styles of these teams should lead to a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* A lot of tempo should be expected here. These two teams rank 5th and 2nd out of 130 teams in the nation in terms of tempo.

Wake Forest's running game is the strength of their offense, and that is where they have a big edge here. Wake Forest's rushing attack ranks 24th in the nation compared to the Syracuse run defense of 87th. 

Syracuse is a balanced offense, and this Wake Forest defense has been very weak against both passing and running teams this year. Wake Forest is 115th in the nation in yards per play allowed. 

The Syracuse defense is one that I have singled out as in line for regression especially since they have been very fortunate on third down so far this year. 

Last year when these two teams met the final score was 64-43.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins offense is all about the running game. Maryland ranks third in the country in yards per carry this year, but they played a relatively soft schedule. Maryland still ranks 11th in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule played, but Michigan State's defense ranks 7th in rushing defense. The Spartans aren't likely to let Maryland just run the ball consistently. Maryland hasn't proven capable of moving it through the air against anyone decent this season.

Michigan State's offense is very weak right now. Their top two wide receivers from before the year are both out now. The Spartans rank 125th in the nation in yards per carry on offense. Maryland's defense ranks 27th in yards per play allowed so far this year. 

Michigan State always plays slowly under Mark Dantonio, and Maryland is playing very slowly this year. In fact, Maryland's tempo in Big Ten play alone would rank them among the ten slowest paced teams in the entire country. 

The weather here is an added bonus. The average of 5 different forecasts I reviewed is 16 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. That is enough to slow the passing games down some more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a bunch of points for a game between two teams with bad offenses. Bowling Green is 98th in the nation in yards per play. Kent State is 108th in the nation in yards per play. 

Both of these teams are very weak on defense, and that's why this game has gotten bet up, but I see another key factor in this game. The forecast calls for winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph as the game moves on. That's a lot of wind for this high of a total. In the long run games with winds of 15 mph or greater in NCAA FB have gone under the total at about 57%. 

Bowling Green slowed their tempo down in their first game under Pelini as head coach as well. The Falcons are likely to continue to play a bit slower now, and I would expect some more running the football.

With the wind and this high of a total, I have to play the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints are clearly a better offense in the dome, and they get to play a road game in another dome here. Drew Brees is as solid as ever, and he has some great weapons around him. Brees and the Saints offense have a clear advantage over a Vikings secondary that is very banged up. Adjusted for strength of schedule, I have the Vikings as the 22nd best pass defense in the NFL thus far. Xavier Rhodes might try to play here, but he is less than 100 percent.

The Vikings are airing it out on offense this year. They are throwing on nearly 67% of their offensive plays. Adjusted for strength of schedule played- the Saints have the 29th best pass defense. Kirk Cousins has some elite receivers and they should be able to get open and create big plays in the passing game.

Two teams who like to throw it around against subpar pass defenses.

The over is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two in Minnesota. An 11-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears host the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon. This game will be played in some major wind by Lake Michigan at Soldier Field. Taking an average forecast from 5 different weather sources- the wind is expected to be about 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph during the game as well. That's the type of wind that can change the way a game is played. 

The Jets offense is very shorthanded right now with Bilal Powell out. He's a key player both in the running game and in the passing game (and pass blocking). Sam Darnold has been good this year, but he's without Powell and 2 starting wide receivers as well. The Bears have a good pass rush, and I think it will be hard for New York to move the ball consistently here.

The Bears offense must rely heavily on the run game because Mitchell Trubisky just isn't good enough to rely on consistently. The strength of the Jets defense is the run defense though. New York ranks 6th in the NFL in rushing defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. 

Both teams play at a pace slightly slower than average in the NFL. With both teams being forced to play conservatively and key offensive players missing- I like this one to stay low scoring in the wind.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Carolina Panthers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday afternoon. Baltimore ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This Ravens defense has no clear weaknesses. They are very good against both the run and pass, and they have a good pass rush.

Carolina is an elite rushing team, but they haven't been good throwing the ball this year. Baltimore has a top three run defense in the NFL. Carolina has only faced one top run defense this year (Dallas), and they struggled mightily with them in a 16-8 win. 

The Baltimore offense ranks 28th in the NFL in yards per play. That isn't good to start with, but it is especially weak when you realize they have played quite a few mediocre or worse defenses. The Baltimore running game is non-existent. 

I see this as a hard hitting contest that stays close and low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Blake Bortles has been a mess and this Jaguars offense is without their star running back Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville has scored 7 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. I don't trust this offense one bit.

Jacksonville's defense is still excellent. Adjusted for strength of schedule played I have the Jaguars as the best pass defense in the NFL. They have a good pass rush as well, and I think they'll make life tough on Wentz in this one.

The Eagles offense ranks 26th in yards per play on the season. That is despite playing only the 26th toughest schedule in the NFL this season. The Eagles struggle in pass protection, and that's a problem in this matchup.

The weather could play a role here. Winds of about 15 mph are expected and there is a 25% chance of rain. It isn't the primary reason I took this under, but it's a nice bonus.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange have two very good quarterbacks. NC State's defense isn't as good as their statistics would suggest. NC State's defense was exposed last week against Clemson, and I expect them to struggle the rest of the way. NC State's secondary is no better than mediocre, and they can be beaten deep by good wide receivers.

The Syracuse defense is in line for some major regression to the mean. Syracuse is only allowing opponents to convert on 24.76% on 3rd down. That isn't going to continue. Syracuse ranks 83rd in yards per play overall and 96th in ypc allowed. Why would a defense that can't stop the run be good on third downs? It's a perfect setup for regression and many more points allowed going forward for Syracuse. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Arkansas State's offense was disappointing in the non-conference, but they are going to score a bunch of points in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have the best quarterback in the conference in Hansen and they have a great group of wide receivers. Arkansas State also ranks 32nd in the nation in tempo. 

Louisiana-Lafayette ranks 14th in the nation in yards per play. The Ragin' Cajuns have some really talented skill position players, and they have been an explosive plays machine. Louisiana has 24 plays of 30 yards or more which is 11th most in the country. 

Both Arkansas State and Louisiana are playing faster inside the Sun Belt than they were in non-conference contests. Arkansas State is 100th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Louisiana is 121st in the nation in yards per play allowed. Fast-paced and big plays back and forth.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Golden Bears defense has been very good this year. Cal ranks 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Cal is allowing opponents to convert on only 31.78% of their 3rd downs this year. The Bears should be able to slow down a Washington offense that isn't quite as dynamic as it was a couple years ago. 

Jake Browning's quarterback play has been very poor for Washington this year. They have scored TD's on only 51% of their trips into the red zone, and much of that has to do with Browning's poor decision making. 

Cal's offense has been a mess all year. The Bears have turned the ball over 20 times this season. Cal doesn't have any explosiveness either. Cal only has 7 plays of 30 yards or more all season, which is in the bottom 5 in the country.

As far as tempo- both teams have slowed their pace of play inside the conference. Chris Petersen has shown that he will play things conservatively if Washington gets a lead, and they are a double digit favorite here. 

This is a low total, but Washington has already played 3 games that have stayed under this total. Cal has played 4 games that have stayed under this number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Houston ranks first in the nation in tempo. South Florida ranks seventh in the nation in tempo. Briles is a great offensive mind, and Houston's offense is firing on all cylinders right now. Houston hasn't scored less than 41 points in a game all year. The Cougars are averaging 48.7 points per game this year. 

Houston has a very good running game. The Cougars are averaging 6.16 ypc this year. Houston is far better in the running game than most people realize. Why is that important? The way to beat South Florida's defense is on the ground with explosive runs. Houston should be able to do just that. 

South Florida is averaging 35.6 points per game this year. The Bulls have a lot of potential on the offensive end.

These are two very explosive offenses. Houston has 26 plays of 30 yards or more this year. South Florida has 24 plays of 30 yards or more. 

Tons of tempo and a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes are likely to either be without Laviska Shenault this weekend or he will be limited. Colorado needs Shenault healthy for later in the season because they are still in the Pac 12 South race. I would be surprised if they want to risk him playing with his turf toe injury in this one.

Oregon State is easily the worst team in the Pac 12. The Beavers are likely to be starting their third string quarterback (Colletto) in this one. Their first two quarterbacks are both injured. Colletto is seen as more of a runner, and his passing accuracy is a big question mark. Oregon State is averaging only 4.65 yards per play in Pac 12 action. 

Colorado's offense isn't even close to the same without Shenault. They can and will score quite a few on Oregon State, but they aren't nearly as explosive. Colorado will likely eat up more time in the process of scoring. Additionally, Mike MacIntyre isn't a guy who has typically run up the score on opponents. 

Both teams are playing significantly slower in recent weeks, likely because of their offensive injuries to key players.

The wind will be a factor here. Sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 26 mph are forecast during this game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Redskins/Cowboys CASH* The Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys meet in what is always a hard fought rivalry contest. Dallas has been playing much better football of late, and Washington is coming off a nice win over Carolina last weekend.

The Dallas defense is the strongest unit on either team. Dallas has been very good on defense all year, and now they get Sean Lee back after he has been out with an injury the last couple weeks. This Cowboys defense is pretty good without Lee this year, but they are elite with him on the field. Lee is one of the most important defenders in the NFL. Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed overall this year. 

Washington's defense has been solid this year as well. The Redskins gave up a lot to New Orleans in the Superdome, but other than that this unit has been very good. Washington is 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed this season.

Dallas is 25th in yards per play on offense. Washington is 26th in offensive yards per play. These two offenses haven't been consistent at all. Washington has major injury issues on the offensive line, and Dallas should be in the backfield a lot here.

Dallas' passing game isn't good enough, and they rely very heavily on Ezekiel Elliot.

The wind forecast in this game is 15-25 mph early in the game and 12-16 mph by the end of the game. That's plenty to make the teams more conservative. I expect a lot of running clock and a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens have the top defense in the NFL so far this year. Baltimore is allowing only 4.4 yards per play so far this season. The Ravens defense excels at pressuring the quarterback, as the Titans found out the hard way last weekend. 

This New Orleans offense is clearly very good. Still, the Saints are dealing with the best defense they have played this year. They are also away from the friendly confines of the Superdome. This one will be played on grass in Baltimore in chilly weather. That makes a big difference.

Baltimore's offense hasn't been able to run the ball at all. That allows opponents to get after the passer and the Ravens are too one-dimensional to be a good offense in the NFL.

A big key here is the weather. Across the board the forecasts are for winds around 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Simply betting high totals in windy games is a great way to make money betting the NFL in the long run. The chilly weather and the grass is a negative for the Saints offense as well. 

If the wind is especially bad here, it makes both teams run the ball even more, and that takes away the strengths of these two offenses.

When the total is 47 or higher and the wind is 9 mph or more in New Orleans road games- the under is 10-1 in the last 11 contests. This one fits this system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Over* Detroit's defense hasn't been impressive at all this year. Detroit has allowed 23 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games. The Lions are 26th in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 6.0. 

The Miami Dolphins have a lot of speed on offense. Brock Osweiler will be starting at quarterback again this week. I'm certainly not a big fan of his, but he has some really good speed on the outside, and the Lions lack top end speed in the secondary. 

The Miami defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Cameron Wake is questionable for this game, and he is arguably their best defender. 

Detroit is a very pass-heavy offense, and Miami's pass defense ranks in the bottom 5 in the NFL in all major pass defense categories. Matt Stafford should be able to air it out on this defense.

Helping both offenses is the referee crew. Jerome Bogers' crew will be doing this game. This crew is famous for lots of holding and pass interference penalties on the defense. The over is 90-64 in this crew's 154 games. 

Two bad defenses and offenses with big play ability.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks are a great over team. UL Monroe is one of the worst defenses in the nation. They are 126th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Warhawks have what is arguably the worst pass defense in the nation. 

Texas State is mediocre defensively. The Bobcats offense is a weakness, but they have shown some very positive signs in recent weeks in the passing game, and I think they will be able to get it going against this UL Monroe pass defense. Texas State has scored 31 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. 

UL Monroe's offense should light up the scoreboard in the Sun Belt. Monroe has underachieved on offense so far this year. The Warhawks have only scored on 65% of their red zone trips, and they have turned the ball over 13 times. They just posted 45 points on Coastal Carolina and they will score a lot in this conference.

UL Monroe pushes the pace and I think they are likely to have the lead. That forces Texas State to keep the tempo going too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers host the Memphis Tigers in a non-conference game on Saturday. Both of these teams play relatively quickly, at 45th and 21st in tempo. They are both good offenses as well, but this number is extreme.

When adjusted for strength of schedule faced, Missouri ranks in the top 20 in the nation in rushing defense. Memphis is first in the nation in yards per carry, but the Tigers have feasted on terrible defenses on the ground. They won't be up against a weak defensive front this time.

Missouri has done most of their work in the air, but winds of 20 mph on Saturday will make it very tough to throw. 

Games with a high total with strong winds have multiple very strong systems on the under. I would have passed on this game without the wind, but I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Montreal goes to Toronto in a CFL showdown set for Saturday afternoon. BMO Field is an outdoor field where the weather can make a big difference. What's the weather look like for this Saturday? Toronto is expected to get 22 mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph. 

That's the type of wind that will change a game. In every football league there is if you look at long term history, the under has done extremely well in these conditions. 

Neither of these offenses are very good to start with. Neither team has been able to run the ball this year. These teams rank last and second to last in rushing yards this season. They'll have to run it more with this weather, and I don't see them having much success.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This number is too high given the circumstances of this game. First of all, it is hard to say how Penn State will view this game. They have lost two straight games and their preseason hopes are now gone. How do they respond? I don't see that as a positive for the over.

Indiana has time and time again played tight games against high quality Big Ten opponents, they just haven't been able to get over the hump. Allen is a defensive-minded coach, and I think his defense will be well-prepared for this big home game against Penn State. 

Though both teams are playing a little bit fast, they are only at 41st and 43rd in pace of play, so it is nothing extreme. The Penn State defense has been excellent this year too. Penn State is 21st in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have played a tough schedule as well, and this defense has looked very good even in losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. 

Indiana's offense hasn't been efficient. They are 93rd in the nation in yards per play. The Penn State offense doesn't have the same kind of explosive ability from the running back spot this year with Barkley gone.

I've gone with an average of 5 weather forecasts for this game, and they are calling for 19 mph sustained winds during this game. High totals with a lot of wind have some great long-term systems for under bettors.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB Top Play Total of the WEEK* The Clemson Tigers offense is excellent with Trevor Lawrence at the helm. Lawrence is playing with a lot of confidence, and he has a lot of weapons around him. Clemson's coaching staff has talked about wanting to push the tempo even more than they are now. Clemson already ranks 34th in pace of play in the nation. They will push the pace here.

North Carolina State has a very good quarterback in Ryan Finley. Finley is the best quarterback Clemson has faced so far this year. What is Clemson's weakness? Clearly, it is their secondary. The Tigers looked really bad in the secondary against Texas A&M earlier this year, and the NC State passing game should exploit this weakness. 

NC State's defense ranks 66th in yards per play allowed. The Wolfpack are 16th in scoring defense. What does this mean? They are due for some serious regression to the mean. This NC State defense isn't nearly as good as they have looked so far this year. Clemson should move the ball easily here.

Both teams can exploit the other defenses weakness here. The pace will stay quick throughout. 

Take the over. TOP Total of the Week. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes and the Akron Zips meet in a big rivalry game on Saturday in Kent. This one is for the Wagon Wheel trophy. 

Kent State and Akron are both very weak offensively. Kent State has allowed a ridiculous 29 sacks this year. That's worst in the country (130 teams). Akron has a good defensive line and they should be able to get in the backfield and put Kent State behind the chains here. 

The Akron offense ranks 119th in the country in yards per play. Akron is averaging only 3.36 yards per carry on the year. 

Kent State plays quickly, but they aren't efficient at all. Akron's offense severely lacks the big play potential. The Zips have only 6 plays of 30 yards or more all season.

Kent State's defense isn't very good, but this Akron defense is very good. The Zips are 37th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Weather should be an issue here. An average of five forecasts in the Kent area shows temperatures in the upper 40's with winds around 15 mph guesting to 20 mph, and a 50% chance of showers during this game. That's a big plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather for this game is set to be a big problem for both offenses. The average forecast between 5 different forecasts I looked at here calls for 48 degrees with average winds of 26 mph and gusts above 30 mph. There is also a 40% chance of rain showers during this game. These conditions are about as drastic as you will see this time of the year, especially with those wind gusts.

Neither team is efficient at running the football, and with these conditions they will have to run it much more often.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one originally wouldn't have made my card, but with the weather forecast here I have to take the under. An average of 5 weather forecasts I researched came up with 21 mph sustained winds with gusts to 30 mph. There is a 30% chance of snow during this game as well.

Blindly taking unders with winds of 20mph or greater has hit at a rate higher than 60% in the past 10 years. 

This is a rivalry game where you would expect both teams to be very motivated, and in general that helps the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes host the Maryland Terrapins on Saturday. Maryland is extremely one-dimensional on offense. Maryland has to be able to run the football or they can't move the ball. Maryland ranks 10th in the nation in yards per carry, but they haven't gone against many really good defenses against the run. That all changes when they play against Iowa on Saturday. Iowa is 5th in the nation in ypc allowed at only 2.69. The Hawkeyes are always strong in the front seven on defense, and that is the case again this year.

The tempo for both teams points toward an under. Iowa ranks 105th out of 130 in terms of tempo. Maryland ranks 110th in tempo. What about how often they are running the ball? Maryland runs on 66.4% of their offensive plays. Iowa runs on 57% of their offensive plays. This will mean a lot of moving clock. 

The weather here could be a bonus. The current forecast calls for 15 mph winds with gusts to 20 mph during this one. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a game I considered passing on because of injuries on the Wisconsin defensive side of the ball, but this number is too with all factors considered. 

Wisconsin plays at an extremely slow tempo. The Badgers rank in the bottom ten in terms of pace of play. Illinois ranks is right around the average when it comes to tempo.

The Illinois offense has been dreadful of late. They scored only 7 points last week against Purdue, and the Boilermakers have been only mediocre on defense this year.

The weather forecast here pushes me over the top on playing this under. The forecast calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts to 30 mph. There are some very strong angles on betting unders with heavy wind, and this is a high total for a Wisconsin game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets don't have the same kind of offensive talent they have had in recent seasons. They lost a star quarterback and running back in the last couple years. Toledo is only 48th in the nation in yards per play this year. Toledo has only 14 plays of 30 yards or more on the season thus far (that is 56th best in the country). Buffalo's defense has excelled at stopping the big plays too. Buffalo has allowed only 9 plays of 30 yards or more on the season.

Buffalo's offense relies pretty heavily on Tyree Jackson and big plays through the air. Jackson is a really good quarterback, but winds of 20 mph and rain showers are forecast here. That's a clear negative for this Buffalo offense, and I think they'll have to be more conservative in this one. 

High totals with a lot of wind have some great long-term systems for under bettors.

This is a key battle in the MAC- and one where both teams should be very motivated. That generally benefits the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Stanford Cardinal have previously been thought of as a great defensive team. A few years ago that was the case. This year they aren't good defensively. Stanford ranks 70th in the nation in yards per play, and they haven't played many great offenses. The Cardinal have also been very fortunate when it comes to red zone defense. Stanford has allowed a touchdown on only 40 percent of opponents drives into the red zone. That isn't going to continue all year long.

Arizona State's offense is solid. Wilkins has done a nice job at quarterback for them, and Harry is an elite wide receiver. Arizona State's offensive line has been very good this year, and that helps against a Stanford defense that is aggressive rushing the passer. 

Stanford's offense has been more explosive this year. They already have 14 plays of 30 yards or more. Bryce Love will likely play at least some here, though he isn't 100 percent. The Cardinal now have a more efficient passing game, and the Sun Devils defense is weak against the pass. 

The over is 4-0 in Stanford's last 4 road games. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans host the Baltimore Ravens late Sunday afternoon in Nashville. 

Baltimore ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Titans are 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Two very strong defenses here.

Tennessee is running more than any other team in the NFL this year. They want to establish the run, but Baltimore has a really strong front seven. Mariota and the Titans passing attack haven't been consistent at all.

Baltimore is 27th in yards per play on offense this year. Tennessee is 30th in yards per play. These are two offenses that have failed to show a consistent ability to move the ball.

The weather here should play a role also. There is a 60 percent chance of rain and winds of 12-15 mph. That's plenty to make it harder for the passing attacks. More conservative play calling would help both of these defenses who are strong in the trenches.

The under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bears defense is elite. Their pass rush is going to give a bunch of teams trouble this year, and Miami's offensive line is in big trouble here. Miami's offensive line isn't very good to begin with, and now they are dealing with a severe shortage at the center position. Look for the Bears to get after Ryan Tannehill here.

The Bears offense still has a lot to prove. They ran up a big number on the Bucs, but that's a terrible defense. Miami's defense is solid against the run, and Trubisky and the passing attack still have plenty to prove. 

Chicago's defense is third in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Dolphins have a gimmicky offense that is starting to get figured out by good defensive coordinators. 

Both teams play at a much slower pace than the average team in the NFL. This kind of slow paced game with two teams who are very inconsistent on offense makes the under have value.

The under is 6-0 in the Bears last 6 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in the Bears last 4 following a win by 14 points or more. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 14-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Colorado and USC are both moving relatively quickly on offense. USC's offense has improved as Daniels has gotten acclimated to this offense. He clearly has a lot of talent, and USC has some good skill position players around him.

Colorado's Montez is a very good veteran quarterback. This USC defense is only 58th in the country in yards per play allowed. They give up too many big plays and that should be an issue here.

Colorado's defense hasn't been tested by top notch offenses yet. USC should be able to get their offense going here.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense had trouble getting going early in the season. MTSU has a great quarterback in Brent Stockstill and with Ty Lee on the outside he has a very good wide receiver to get the ball to. I was very impressed with MTSU's offense last week. Marshall is an excellent defense (best in the conference), and MTSU put up 34 points and 420 yards on them. MTSU was shut down by Vanderbilt and Georgia in the early going, but they aren't going to be facing defenses of that caliber anytime soon. MTSU pushes the pace, and I see no reason to expect FIU to slow them down much here.

FIU has been much better on offense than I expected them to be. James Morgan has fit in very well at quarterback. Morgan is averaging 9.79 yards per pass attempt. Him getting the ball up the field so much has really allowed this running game to have more success as well. FIU is 23rd in the nation in yards per play on offense. 

Conference USA is well known for its high scoring affairs. The totals move downward here doesn't make any sense to me. I see a game with quite a bit of tempo and two quarterbacks playing well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers have adopted a new style of offense this year. Bronco Mendenhall's team is running the ball early and often. That plays into the Miami defensive strength though. Miami is 7th in the nation allowing only 2.73 yards per carry, and their defensive line is stacked with talent. The Virginia offensive front isn't likely to be able to get much of a push here.

Miami is running the ball on 61% of their plays this year. Perry has done a good job at quarterback now, but the offense has slowed down tempo-wise. 

We should see a bunch of running clock in this game, and both defenses have been better at stopping the run than the offenses have at running the ball. The matchups appear to favor the defense.

I would expect a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA FB TOP Total of the WEEK* The UTSA Roadrunners have the worst offense in college football. UTSA just won 20-3 against Rice, but they had only 178 yards of offense in that game. Their two touchdowns were on drives of 31 yards and 3 yards. Rice turned the ball over 4 times, and UTSA was handed their points in that one. UTSA is last in yards per play in the country. There are even clear signs of regression for their offense when it comes to scoring. UTSA has scored on 100% of their red zone trips so far this year. That can't continue. They are near the bottom in allowing sacks, so that puts them behind the chains often. The lack of explosive plays from UTSA is ridiculous. They have only 2 plays of 30 yards or more in six games! 

Louisiana Tech ranks 69th in the country in yards per play. They have been inconsistent this year. LA Tech has also been fortunate in that they have scored on 100% of their red zone trips this year. A sign of regression.  LA Tech's defense has been good though. They are 47th in the nation in yards per play allowed. It's hard to imagine UTSA scoring very many at all here. 

UTSA has always been good defensively under Coach Wilson. UTSA is a very physical team and they allow only 3.45 yards per carry. I expect LA Tech to get the lead here and as they try to salt this one away later in the game, the UTSA defense should hold their own. 

Last year, LA Tech beat UTSA 20-6. I expect another defensive battle here. 

Take the under. TOP Play. CFB TOP Total of the Week

*3 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have two of the bottom ten defenses in the nation. UL Monroe's offense has underachieved so far this year, but I expect them to put up some big numbers in Sun Belt action. UL Monroe has scored in the red zone only 58.33% of the time this year. That can't continue long term. That's a number that is due for some positive regression. This team has quite a few weapons and they have a speed advantage over the Coastal Carolina defense.

Coastal Carolina's offense has been much more efficient this year. Joe Moglia being back has really changed things for this team. The triple option has been really effective, and they are up against a terrible ULM defense here. ULM is 128th in the nation out of 130 teams in yards per play allowed this year. They are giving up 7.41 yards per play. 

Coastal Carolina's defense is second worst in the nation allowing 6.81 yards per carry on the season. Both of these defenses give up explosive plays by the bunches. Look for a lot of long plays from scrimmage here.

The over is 20-6 in ULM's last 26 conference games. The over is 12-5 in Coastal's last 17 games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Denton, Texas isn't expected to be good at all for this game. A temperature in the mid 60's with winds of 15 mph and gusts to 20 mph and heavy rain are forecast for Saturday. That's some miserable weather for two teams that are reliant on the passing game. While the under is always helped by wind and rain, it is much more of a benefit when you catch a spot where teams are normally passing teams and they must try to get something going on the ground. That's the spot here. 

Both of these defenses have been better this year. Despite playing a weak schedule, Southern Miss is 114th in the nation in yards per carry, so if they have to run the ball it isn't likely to go very well for them. North Texas lost their star in Wilson from the backfield last year. The Mean Green are 94th in the nation in yards per carry. The poor weather would at least somewhat neutralize the best player on the field (Mason Fine QB for North Texas) as well. 

The sharp money is clearly on the under here, and I fully agree. This line is about where it should be without any weather issues. There are clear weather issues in this one- and with two teams reliant on throwing it around, that makes a big difference.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Two offenses who have struggled quite a bit this season. New York is 20th in the NFL in yards per play. Philadelphia is all the way down at 25th in yards per play. 

The Eagles defense is a strong unit, and I think the Giants defense will improve as well.  Carson Wentz isn't himself yet, and Eli Manning just isn't a very good quarterback at this stage in his career.

The pace of play is key here. New York has played at the second slowest tempo of any team in the NFL. Philadelphia ranks in the bottom ten in tempo as well.

Weather could play a major role in this game. The current forecast calls for rain which is heavy at times and winds of 10-15 mph. That's a huge plus for the under.

The under is 5-1 in the Giants last 6 home games.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens defense has been the best in the NFL so far this year. Baltimore really impressed me on defense last weekend in their win at Pittsburgh. The Ravens are balanced on defense, and there is no real weakness to attack. The Ravens are first in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

Cleveland gave up a ton of points last weekend, but the Browns defense is still a very solid unit. The Browns turnovers and some terrible calls by the refs inflated Oakland's point total last weekend some. Look at how well the Browns defended New Orleans in the Superdome and that says a lot. Cleveland ranks 10th in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

The AFC North has consistently been a very good division for the under. How good? The under is a whopping 57-33 (63.3%) in an AFC North game with a total of 41 points or higher since 2004. 

Both of these offenses aren't very explosive, and I see a defensive battle here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Mississippi State defenses have been dominating this year. Both are extremely strong on the defensive front. What's the weakness of these offenses? The offensive line. That should make both quarterbacks uncomfortable, and lead to a lot of negative plays. Both of these offenses struggle when they get behind the sticks. 

Auburn's offense is only averaging 5.42 yards per play, which is 91st best in the country. Their offensive line has been a huge problem this year. 

Mississippi State is reliant on the run game, and Auburn's defense is 10th in the country allowing only 2.75 yards per carry.

A defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies host the Kentucky Wildcats in a big SEC showdown on Saturday night. 

Kentucky's defense ranks 14th best in the nation allowing only 4.46 yards per play. Kentucky is 5th in pass defense (yards per play allowed). 

Kentucky will slow the tempo down as much as possible. They rank 118th in tempo in the country of 130.

Texas A&M also moves slowly at 106th in the country in tempo. The Aggies defense is better than their numbers would indicate. Alabama racked up a bunch of yards on this team.

With both teams preferring to run, the clock should keep moving here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels and the ULM Warhawks both move quickly. They both rank in the top 40 in the nation in tempo. 

Ole Miss takes a lot of deep shots in the passing game. They have some tremendous wide receivers who will have a big advantage in this game. Ole Miss has a whopping 26 plays of 30 yards or more in only five games so far this year. The Rebels will get a bunch of explosive plays against this weak ULM defense. ULM ranks 116th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed.

The Ole Miss defense is very weak as well. The Rebels rank 102nd in yards per play allowed, and they are allowing 38 points per game this season. ULM's offense has underachieved some this year, and I think we'll see them put up plenty of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes defense has been tremendous this year. Iowa ranks 7th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are giving up only 2.67 ypc (8th best in country). Iowa's offense sits at 72nd in the country in yards per play. Iowa is only 89th in yards per carry offensively this year. 

Minnesota ranks 120th in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Gophers are averaging only 3.63 yards per carry. They have suffered some serious injury problems at the running back spot. This Minnesota team doesn't have enough playmakers on offense to score much on good defense, and this is the best defense they have played yet by a large margin.

Both of these teams run the ball about 61% of the time on offense. Both teams rank among the 25 slowest teams in the country in terms of tempo. There will be a lot of running the ball and playing slowly, which will eat away at the clock here.

Both of the last two years this matchup has stayed well under the posted total. Winds of 10-12 mph are in forecast and that helps the under a bit as well.

It's a low number, but it's low for a reason.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan offense is a mess this year. The Chippewas are 128th in the country in yards per play on offense. They have a weak offensive line and a lack of playmakers at the skill positions on offense. Central Michigan has only 8 plays of 20 yards or more all season. 

Buffalo has a good quarterback in Tyree Jackson, but the Bulls have a very weak offensive line and a subpar rushing attack. 

As bad as the Central Michigan offense is, the defense has been great. They are 26th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Their strong defensive line has a big edge in this game. Central Michigan should be able to get heat on Jackson in this game.

Buffalo is 32nd in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Bulls have a good pass rush and are a well-balanced defense.

The weather could play a role here. A 60% chance of rain is in the forecast and 10 mph winds. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Yankees/Red Sox CASH* I'm taking the under in this Yankees/Red Sox clash for Friday night. It's all hands on deck this time of the year. There will be no saving the best bullpen pitchers for another day. Both of these teams have elite bullpens also, so that helps us a lot in this contest.

Chris Sale has worked back from shoulder inflammation. While on the surface his results didn't look great in his last two starts, a closer look shows he was still throwing the ball well. Sale was bitten by bad batted ball luck in those games. He walked only 1 batter and struck out 15 in those games though. Sale has had a FIP of 2.88 or lower in every single start in his last 14 outings. That's tremendous stuff. The Yankees lineup has a career average of .199 against Sale.

J.A. Happ has been good against Boston. Happ has allowed the Red Sox to hit only .224 against him in his career. Happ has thrown the ball really well this season.

Fenway Park has been a good under park when the weather is cooler and the wind is blowing in. The weather calls for 53 degrees and winds blowing in at about 6 mph here. With a temperature of 60 degrees or lower and the wind blowing in, the under is hitting at 59% at Fenway since 2005.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NHL Opening Night CASH* The San Jose Sharks have had a good defense the last couple seasons, but they got even better in the offseason. In Karlsson, Burns, and Vlasic- you could make a good argument that the Sharks have the best defensive trio in the NHL. Their depth on defense is improved from last year as well.

The Ducks have a top six or eight goalie in the NHL, and they have all kinds of depth on defense right in front of John Gibson. Anaheim doesn't have nearly as much offensive talent as the average NHL team. 

Anaheim was sixth on the penalty kill last year. San Jose was second on the penalty kill. San Jose was 16th on the power play last year. Anaheim was 23rd on the power play.

The under has been a great play when these two meet in the last few years. In their last 10 meetings, only two of them have gone over the total. The under is 44-20 in the last 64 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Monday MONEY* German Marquez and Walker Buehler both enter this crucial game in tremendous form.

Marquez hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in his last 12 starts. He has allowed 2 or fewer in 11 of those 12 starts. Marquez has a FIP of 3.33 or lower in his last 11 starts. That's amazing consistency from Marquez. Marquez has pitched at Dodger Stadium twice this year. He allowed 2 hits and 1 run total both of those games. That's 15 innings and 4 hits and two runs allowed. Marquez has allowed Dodgers hitters to bat only .200 against him in his career.

Walker Buehler has an amazing 2.76 ERA and 2.99 FIP this year. Buehler has allowed two runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. Buehler has a 2.12 ERA at home this year. He has a tremendous 0.85 WHIP at home as well. Rockies batters are hitting only .226 against him.

In a crucial game for both teams, both bullpens are very well rested and they will use their best guys.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Huskies and the BYU Cougars play a similar style of football. Both are very physical teams, and both prefer to run the football and use up the clock. There should be a lot of running clock in this one, and the defenses are the strengths of both teams.

BYU is 106th out of 130 in the nation in tempo. Washington is 101st in tempo. Both defenses have been elite at not giving up big plays this year. BYU has only allowed 4 plays of 30 yards or more in four contests. Washington has only allowed a single play of 30 yards or more in four contests. 

BYU wants to establish the run with Squally Canada, but Washington will likely feel good enough about their pass defense to commit a little extra help in the box here. 

Jake Browning has regressed at quarterback, and this BYU defense should do a good job holding their own on the defensive line.

The under is 6-0 in BYU's last 6 vs. a Pac 12 opponent. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 September games. The under is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 September games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing less than 275 yards last game. A 27-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense will be much better with Book at quarterback now. Wimbush made too many mistakes and was just very inconsistent. 

This Notre Dame team is going to push the pace. Book talk about how much the coaching staff wanted him to push the pace last week, and he followed the directions well. Notre Dame ranks 21st in the nation in tempo.

Stanford is a much slower paced team, but they are an offense that has big play capability. The Cardinal have a much better passing attack than they have had in most years, and that gives them balance. 

This game finished 38-20 last year, and I see both offenses as better than last year. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* UTSA is second to last in the nation in yards per play so far this year. UTEP is 8th worst out of 130 teams. These are two really bad offenses. 

UTSA has been strong defensively for the past few years, and I expect them to be very good against the pass this year. UTEP doesn't have much of a running game.

The UTEP defense is improved from last year, and they aren't giving up as many big plays thus far. 

UTEP ranks 123rd out of 130 teams in the nation in tempo. Look for an ugly low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs offense is very inconsistent, but their defense is very good. The Bulldogs actually played pretty well on defense last week against Kentucky. The strength of this Bulldogs defense is their defensive front. Florida is pretty reliant on the running game, and they are unlikely to have much success there.

Both of these teams are playing at a slower pace than average, and these are two strong defenses. The Florida offense hasn't been nearly as good as their points per game look. They have benefited from a bunch of short fields and special teams touchdowns. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons offense hasn't been up to par so far this year, but I expect them to get their ground game going as they almost always do. They have multiple solid options at quarterback.

Nevada has a great quarterback for their pass heavy system in Ty Gangi. I expect Nevada to put up some big numbers in MWC play this year. Nevada is averaging an impressive 6.54 yards per play this year, and they are 17th quickest in the country in terms of tempo.

Nevada is 87th in yards per play allowed and Air Force is 97th. 

When these teams met last year, Air Force won 45-42. It was no fluke that it was really high scoring either. Air Force had 591 yards offense and Nevada had 424 yards. 

I don't see any reason to expect things to change in this year's matchup. A back and forth high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Appalachian State Mountaineers offense has been a really nice surprise this year. With Thomas at quarterback, they seem to have found a guy who knows the system really well and can make the right decisions. Moore gives this team a really good running back with the ability to break one at any time. Appalachian State is 6th in the nation in yards per play this year. This offense showed what they can do in that impressive season opener against Penn State. 

South Alabama has decided to pick up the tempo this year. The Jaguars rank 42nd in the nation in tempo. They have gotten much better than expected quarterback play from Evan Orth. He threw for 360 yards on just 32 pass attempts against Memphis last week. 

The South Alabama defense is weak. They have allowed a bunch of big plays this year. South Alabama has given up 28 plays of 20 yards or more in the early going this year. They rank 104th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

This number has been beaten down too far.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* It's hard to overstate how bad this UConn defense has been. UConn is dead last in the nation in every key defensive statistic. UConn is allowing a ridiculous 9.22 yards per play. They are allowing 7.97 yards per carry, which is easily worst in the nation. 

Cincinnati's defense is solid, but I think their defensive numbers look better than they truly are right now for a couple key reasons. They played one game (against Miami OH) in a driving rainstorm with 20mph. That makes the job a lot easier for the defense. Second, they played an Alabama A&M team that is awful. 

The Cincinnati offense has gotten better week by week, and they should move easily against UConn as everyone else has. UConn hasn't allowed less than 49 points in a game this year and that includes a game against Rhode Island (FCS school). 

David Pindell is now probable to play here, and the UConn offense is good enough that they should contribute enough here.

This number has gotten too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals meet on Friday night. Cleveland is locked into their spot in the playoffs, while Kansas City is ready for this disappointing season to be complete. 

The long-term trend to the under is very strong in the final weekend in Major League Baseball's regular season. That's a good starting point for this one.

Additionally, Kerwin Danley has been a great long-term under umpire. His strikes called rate is still higher than the average this year, and in the long run he has been a very good proven under umpire. 

Another key factor here is the weather. The temperature is expected to be in the low 50's and winds of 10-12 mph are blowing straight in. 

Mike Clevinger has allowed only a .181 batting average in a pretty large sample size of 105 at bats against Kansas City. Ian Kennedy has only allowed a .254 average in a large sample size of 185 at bats against Cleveland. Kennedy has much better numbers at home.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I liked this play last night with Kohl Stewart as the starter, and I like it with Moya being the opener for the Twins as well. In his last 4 innings pitched when starting he hasn't allowed a run. Moya is a proven commodity and he seems to be comfortable in this role. Kohl Stewart has thrown the ball well against the Tigers, and this is still a terrible Tigers offense.

Turnbull has shown potential in the minors, and the Twins are short-handed offensively right now.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Cubs are an offense that is extremely reliant on getting on base with walks. Tonight, they face a starting pitcher in Jameson Taillon who has excellent control. Taillon is walking only 2.17 batters per nine innings. Taillon has walked one batter or less in 8 of his last 13 starts. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 10 of his last 12 starts, so he comes into this game in great form. 

Cole Hamels has pitched really well since joining the Cubs. He has had some bad batted ball luck in his last couple starts. 

Both of these lineups have been struggling of late. The Pirates rank 20th in the majors in weighted on base average in the past month. The Cubs rank an even worse 24th in wOBA in the last month.

The under is 4-0 in Taillon's last 4 starts. The under is 6-0 in the Cubs last 6 home games. The under is 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 home starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two teams. An 18-0 angle. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots offense should have little trouble moving the ball and scoring on this Detroit Lions defense. The Lions defense isn't good to start with, and the guess from most is that Darius Slay, their top corner, is unlikely to play this Sunday night. He suffered a head injury last weekend, and most players with similar injuries have missed at least one game. The Lions don't have any depth in the secondary, and the Patriots can take advantage.

On the other side, Blake Bortles just carved up this Patriots secondary. Matt Stafford has been good on the turf, and I think he'll find a lot of open receivers in this one. New England has shown defensive weakness in the past year, and a team like Detroit that airs it out often should be able to move the ball on this unit.

The over is 8-2 in the Lions last 10 home games. The over is 5-1 in the Lions last 6 after a loss.

Look for a lot of big plays and a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* Arizona State is 97th in the nation in yards per carry so far this year. They haven't been able to establish anything on the ground, and I don't see that changing here. The Sun Devils offensive line should be in for a long night against the Washington defensive front here. Washington is loaded with top end talent on the defensive line. 

Manny Wilkins isn't consistent at the quarterback spot. The Sun Devils didn't even get a first down in the second half until there was about 3 minutes left against San Diego State last week. They face an even better defense here. 

Washington's offense hasn't been clicking all that well this year. Jake Browning has been out of sync and the Huskies lack big playmakers on the outside. Arizona State's defense is much improved this year with Herm Edwards and Danny Gonzales here running the 3-3-5. 

I see Washington getting a safe lead here and then running the ball consistently and burning up the clock. Petersen's teams have a history of being very conservative with big leads in the second half. 

The under is 5-0 in Washington's last 5 September games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing less than 275 yards in their last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans defense let them down in the second half against Arizona State. The Sun Devils put together two long drives to win in the fourth quarter. Michigan State has had two weeks to get ready for this game, and I expect a much better defensive performance from a team coached by Mark Dantonio.

Michigan State ranks 120th in the nation, so they will be slowing things down a lot here. Indiana was top five in the nation in tempo last year, but they are down to an averaged paced tempo this year. 

Indiana has a strong defensive line, and Michigan State is banged up on the offensive front. LJ Scott is questionable for this game as well, and without him Michigan State is far less potent on offense. 

Both Michigan State and Indiana's offenses have been slightly worse than the average offense in the country. 

Last year's meeting was 17-9 and an epic defensive struggle. The year before that they went into overtime at 21-21 (it was 7-0 at halftime). These teams have a history of low scoring games against each other. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles had a week off after a cancellation due to Hurricane Florence. Their offense gets a boost as Kwadra Griggs is eligible to return at quarterback here. Since Jack Abraham has played so well at QB, Griggs will have to share time with him. 

Southern Miss' offense will go up against one of the worst defenses in the country in the Rice Owls. Rice is allowing 6.01 yards per carry. Their secondary might be even worse though. They are giving up a whopping 10.0 yards per pass completion. Rice has already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more in just three games. 

The Rice offense is better than last year. The Owls are a respectable 83rd in the country in yards per play. They have an improved backfield and I think they can break some big gainers in the run game here.

The last two years the score has been 44-28 Southern Miss and 43-34 Southern Miss when these two teams met. Southern Miss put up more than 500 yards of offense last year.

This total has been bet down, and I'll gladly take the over at this low number with a questionable Southern Miss defense and a terrible Rice defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores have a much improved passing attack. Vanderbilt gained 420 yards against Notre Dame last week, and the Commodores just blew all sorts of chances to score in the red zone. They should have won that game.

South Carolina is playing much faster this year. The Gamecocks rank 29th in the country in tempo so far this season. With Samuel healthy again, Jake Bentley has an elite weapon to get the ball to and that should make a big difference.

Last year, both of these teams were worse on offense and played slower and their meeting was a 34-27 South Carolina win. 

Maybe Vanderbilt's defense is a little better this year, but I'm not convinced it is as good as it looks on paper so far this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Which team is dead last in the nation in yards per play so far this year? It's the Northern Illinois Huskies. This Northern Illinois offense wants to rely on the run. They are running the ball more than 61% of the time this year. They just aren't any good at running the football though. The strength of the Florida State defense is their run defense. Florida State ranks 34th in the country, allowing only 3.31 yards per carry on the year thus far.

Florida State's offensive line is a mess right now. It's about as bad of an offensive line as any Power 5 conference has. What's the strength of the Northern Illinois defense? It's clearly their defensive line led by Sutton Smith. Smith is going to be in the Florida State backfield early and often in this one.

This projects as a 20-13 type of game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers have a tremendous defensive front. Georgia Tech is a team that has to run the football. They have virtually no passing game. Georgia Tech runs on about 77% of their offensive plays. The Yellow Jackets average a little better than 7 yards per carry, but they shouldn't get anywhere near that amount in this contest.

Clemson has been excellent at stopping the triple option of Georgia Tech in recent years. The Yellow Jackets have had 230, 124, and 230 total yards of offense in their last three games against Clemson. Clemson beat Tech 26-7 and 24-10 the last two seasons. The Tigers are a bit vulnerable in the secondary this year, but this is the best defensive line they have had. Clemson also faced a triple option team last week. They should be ready. 

Georgia Tech's defense is showing signs of improving under new coordinator Nate Woody. He did a great job at Appalachian State, and he should do a good job in the long run here too. Tech ranks 53rd in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year.

With Clemson running at a 56% clip on the year and Georgia Tech running the ball on nearly every play, there will be a bunch of running clock.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks offense has been bad this year, but this is their chance to breakout of their funk. Miami's offensive numbers are skewed right now. They played a game in torrential rain and wind against Cincinnati and scored 0 points. They then scored 3 against a good Big Ten defense in Minnesota. 

Miami now goes up against a terrible Bowling Green defense. Bowling Green is allowing 7.32 yards per play on the year. That is 123rd in the country. Bowling Green has already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more this year. The Falcons allowed 29 points and a whopping 612 yards against Miami last year. The year before Miami put up 40 points on them.

Bowling Green's offense likes to push the tempo, and I think Doege is a good fit for this scheme. In the same way that their offensive stats are skewed to the downside, Miami's defensive stats look better than they should. That torrential rain and wind game helped their numbers. Also, Minnesota has a really weak offense this year. Marshall put up 35 points on Miami in the season opener. 

This is an awfully low total for a Bowling Green game. I think both offenses move the ball well here.

The over is 7-0 in Bowling Green's last 7 conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS loss. A 17-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Georgia Bulldogs offense is better this year than last. Georgia has a much more balanced attack. They have playmakers on the outside, and they have a quarterback who is comfortable in the system and has experience. Georgia ranks sixth in the nation in yards per play on offense so far this year. 

Missouri is in the top 20 in the nation in tempo. Derek Dooley has this offense playing quickly again, and Drew Lock looks great in this new offense. Missouri is 27th in the nation in yards per play, and they'll look to push the pace here.

The Georgia defense is down a notch from last year, and Missouri's defense isn't good at all. 

Georgia had 696 yards of total offense against Missouri last year. The final score there was 53-28 in favor of Georgia. I think both defenses are a little worse this year, and both offenses are definitely more efficient.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over*

Wake Forest ranks third in the nation in tempo. The Demon Deacons will have their quarterback back for this game, and that should make a big difference. Their offense will become more efficient.

Notre Dame's tempo ranks 35th in the country. The Fighting Irish have been disappointing on offense thus far, but they go against a Wake Forest defense that ranks 95th in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame should get their running game going in a big way here.

With lots of pace from each side, I think this number is several points too low.

Take the over.

*3 Star MLB System Play SMASHER* Comerica Park is a park where the wind matters a lot more than most people realize. When the wind is blowing out at this park, it becomes a very tough field for pitchers. Let's take a look at the numbers.

Since 2005, with the wind blowing out at 10 mph or greater and a total of 9 or lower- the over is a whopping 54-27-5 (66.7%). With the wind blowing out at 12 mph or greater the over is an even better 34-13-3 (70.8%). The wind is forecast to be blowing out at 16-18 mph in this one. This is a strong system that I can't ignore in this situation.

Ian Kennedy and Francisco Liriano are both below average pitchers at this stage of their career. What's the primary problem for both guys? They give up a lot of hard hit fly balls that turn into home runs. That's not a good match for the conditions here.

While both of these offenses have been bad most of the year, they have actually improved a lot of late. Kansas City ranks 4th in the majors in weighted on base average in the past month. They are 25th on the season. The Tigers are 23rd in the past month. They are 27th for the season. 

Both bullpens rank among the bottom ten in the majors in the last month as well, and neither of these started typically go all that deep into the game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The San Francisco Giants have a brutal .256 on-base percentage in the past month. That's easily last in the majors during that time. Which team has the second worst OBP during that time? The San Diego Padres at .287. 

Derek Holland has had a really nice bounce back year for the Giants this season. Holland has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 9 of his last 10 starts. His FIP shows he hasn't simply been lucky during that time, Holland is just throwing the ball very well. He's getting a lot more swings and misses in recent outings. 

Joey Lucchesi is a quality youngster for the Padres. He has a deceptive delivery that is hard to time. The Giants have scored 3 runs or less in 11 of their last 12 games! They haven't scored more than 4 runs in any game in that 12 game span. 

Both pitchers are backed by strong bullpens here.

Doug Eddings is the umpire behind the plate here, and he's easily the best under umpire in baseball. His strikes called percentage is first in the majors over the last five years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Cowboys have a great running back in Ezekiel Elliot. Dak Prescott has a major shortage of weapons in the passing game though. Until Dallas proves they can complete something deep, I expect teams to stack the box just like Carolina did last week and force Dallas to beat them through the air. The Giants defense should much improved this season. I would expect them to get some pressure on Prescott here when he does throw.

The Giants offensive line is once again a weakness. Barkley busted one big run against Jacksonville, but overall he struggled to find space. Eli Manning isn't good at quarterback at this point in his career, and he'll be under a lot of pressure here.

Both of these teams are playing at a slow tempo. Dallas is especially slow. The Cowboys will be running the ball a lot and when they are going to wait so long between plays, it is a big boost for the under.

Dallas has scored 10 points or less in 5 of their last 9 games. 

The under is 5-0 in the Cowboys last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins might be without Speight here, but I like freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson and his dual-threat ability. The Bruins will obviously play fast with Chip Kelly as their new coach. 

Fresno State's defensive front isn't as strong as it was a year ago. The Bulldogs won't be bad on defense, but they won't be as strong as they were a year ago. Fresno State hasn't played a good offense yet this year. 

The Fresno State offense will be better than it was a year ago. The Bulldogs have a veteran quarterback and a great offensive-minded head coach. Look for Fresno State to speed up their tempo some this season as well. UCLA's defense is a major weakness, and I think Fresno State can move the ball on a consistent basis here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils picked up a huge win over Michigan State last weekend. Herm Edwards' team deserves a lot of credit for how they have started out the season. I've been most impressed with Arizona State's run defense. The Sun Devils have allowed only 1.07 yards per carry so far this year. Stuffing UTSA didn't mean too much, but Michigan State averaged only 2.33 yards per carry last weekend. 

Arizona State's defensive coordinator was San Diego State's defensive coordinator last year. I think that really helps them on defense this weekend. San Diego State is without their starting quarterback here. The Aztecs rank in the bottom 5 in the country in pace of play. They will run the ball a bunch here, and that will keep the clock moving. I don't think San Diego State can throw it enough to keep Arizona State's defense honest.

Rocky Long's defenses seem to always be well-prepared. The Arizona State offensive line is a bit weak, and I expect San Diego State to be able to get in the backfield pretty often here and put Arizona State in 2nd and 3rd and long situations. 

Arizona State played so quickly last year, and they are a different team with Herm Edwards as their coach now. I don't think the market is accounting for that change enough right now.

The under is 20-8-1 in San Diego State's last 29 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Missouri Tigers have a potent offense with Drew Lock at quarterback and plenty of playmakers on the outside. Missouri is playing very quickly again this year, and Purdue's defense is much weaker than it was last season.

Purdue's offense is going to be better with Jeff Brohm leading the way. Brohm is a great offensive mind, and I fully expect him to be able to get the passing game going. Rondale Moore is a great weapon to have as well.

With both teams pushing the pace and throwing the ball often- I see this one getting over the posted total.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen will have a great passing attack this year. FIU's weakness on defense is their secondary. FIU has a strong offensive line. What's UMass' defensive weakness? Their defensive front is easy to run the football against.

These two teams met in the final game of the season last year. FIU won that one 63-45. FIU rolled up a ridiculous 674 yards of total offense. FIU ran for 379 yards (7.7 yards per carry). UMass totaled 548 yards, and they threw for 392 yards in that one. 

I don't like to make too much of a game from last year, but it was the final game of the season last year, and both offenses showed they can easily exploit the weakness of the opposing defense. 

Even without last year's contest, I would like the over here. UMass should finish the season in the top 30 or so in pace of play this year, and FIU is right about middle of the pack in tempo. Both defenses have proven vulnerable to big plays. I see a back and forth affair here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Kansas State relies heavily on the running game, and they rank in the bottom 15 in the country in terms of tempo. There is always a lot of running clock and long drives in Kansas State contests.

UTSA lost a bunch of talent on offense from last year. The Roadrunners are going to have trouble scoring all season long. So far this year, UTSA is averaging a miserable 3.49 yards per play on the season. That is worst in Conference USA through the first two games.

Both teams are better at stopping the run than the pass in this one.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green have a fantastic passing attack led by Mason Fine. Arkansas has some major defensive issues. They allowed a bunch of big plays against a weak Colorado State offense last weekend. North Texas should surprise a lot of people with a bunch of big passing plays here.

Arkansas has a good quarterback for Chad Morris' system. The Razorbacks are looking to push the pace more and more every game. While the North Texas offense is very good, their defense is weak. North Texas struggled all year last season with giving up too many big plays.

Lots of explosive plays from both sides.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers always rank in the bottom ten in the nation in terms of pace of play. BYU ranks on the lower end in tempo as well. There will be a bunch of running plays in this game, and with both teams letting the clock roll between plays it will certainly help the under.

BYU couldn't do anything on offense against Cal last week at home. The Cougars got a fumble recovery run back for a touchdown, but had 3 points on offense until the final minute of the game. They scored a TD with less than a minute left with Cal in their prevent defense. Cal's defense is pretty good, but the Wisconsin Badgers defense is clearly stronger. I would be surprised if BYU gets much at all here.

Wisconsin is a very run heavy team. They will run the ball 65-70% of the time this year. They have a great running game, but BYU's defensive strength is definitely stopping the run. The Cougars have a strong front 7. Wisconsin will get their yardage here, but I think BYU does better slowing them down than most teams do. Expect long drawn out drives for Wisconsin.

A 31-10 type of game here with the under showing value.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers and Ohio Bobcats meet on Saturday. This total has been beaten down in a big way because of the Hurricane Florence threat. Even if this game is played in Virginia, I think there is some value on the over. However, multiple sources now indicate that this game will be played in Nashville at a neutral site. Beat writers for both teams have reported this.

This is a game that I believe should have a total in the mid 50's given a normal weather day. When a total is this much below that number, I have to fire with a bigger play. 

Ohio's defense is going to be much weaker than they were a year ago. How bad could they be? Ohio allowed a whopping 645 yards to Howard in their first game.

A quick tempo from the Bobcats and a solid Virginia run offense.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two excellent young starting pitchers are set to take the mound on Friday night in St. Louis. Both Walker Buehler and Jack Flaherty have been great this year. These two met a little less than a month ago in Los Angeles. Flaherty allowed one run in six innings pitched. Buehler pitched a shutout for seven innings. 

On the season, Flaherty has allowed an OBP of just .271 at home. Flaherty is elite when it comes to missing bats. His swinging strike rate is 13.2%. He's allowed one run or less in five of his last seven starts.

Buehler has a 3.09 ERA and a 3.16 xFIP, so he's been great in his rookie season. Buehler has a FIP of 2.66 or lower in 3 of his last 4 starts. His lone poor start of late was at Coors Field.

Both teams badly need this win, so they'll be aggressive in using their best pitchers from the bullpen. 

The under is 22-8 in the Dodgers last 30 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Flaherty's last 5 starts. The under is 35-16 in the last 51 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Diamondbacks and Rockies are playing some extremely important games in the NL West race. Colorado is first in the division, but they are only 2.5 games ahead of third place (Arizona). 

Patrick Corbin has been the ace for the Diamondbacks this year. Corbin has been absolutely brilliant since the All Star break. Corbin has a 2.51 ERA since the break, and he has a ridiculously low 1.51 FIP. He's had a FIP of 2.87 or lower in every start since the break. While Coors Field is a concern here, this is a very high total.

Jon Gray continues to be due for positive regression. He has a 4.69 ERA, but a 3.71 FIP on the season. Gray faces a DBacks offense that ranks in the bottom 7 in the majors in weighted on-base average against right handed pitching. 

Phil Cuzzi is a top five under umpire in the majors. He has a big strike zone and he should help both pitchers here.

The under is 9-0 in Gray's last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Gray's last 5 starts at home. The under is 4-0 in Cuzzi's last 4 behind home plate. An 18-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants offense has been the worst in the majors in the last month by a huge margin. The Giants have a team weighted on-base average of just .240. The Padres are second worst at .288. This Giants lineup is a mess right now, and they still play in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks of any.

Mike Foltynewicz enters this one throwing the ball really well. He has allowed 1 run or less in four of his last five starts. He's had a breakout season overall this year, and there isn't any reason to expect a poor performance from him here.

Andrew Suarez has been brilliant at home this season. His WHIP is an amazing 0.995 at home. Suarez has allowed only 5 hits and 0 runs in his last 14 innings pitched at home.

The under is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in the Braves last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. the NL East. A 20-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday in the season opener. Cleveland should be much more competitive this year. The Browns were great against the run last year, and they clearly upgraded their secondary in the offseason. Cleveland has some very nice young talent in the secondary.

Pittsburgh will be without Le'Veon Bell for this one, and he has been such a big part of their success both on the ground and in the air. While Pittsburgh's defense is questionable, I don't think the Browns have the kind of weapons to expose their weaknesses all that much.

The weather here looks very good for an under. The forecast calls for 20-25 mph winds and rain during this game. The winds are the key and I expect this number to drop if the forecast stays the same.

The under is 11-2 in the Browns last 13 home games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Cleveland.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast plays a major role in this being an under play for me. Baltimore is expected to have 15-20 mph winds and steady rain on Sunday. That's a big plus for the under. It is the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon moving through, and the timing appears to be right for Baltimore to be damp and breezy during this contest. 

The Buffalo Bills offense should endure some real struggles this year. They have a new system and Nathan Peterman is under center. I would have expected the game plan in week one to be pretty conservative for Buffalo's offense here no matter what, but with the weather it will likely be even more conservative. The Ravens defense should be better against the run this year, and they'll load up the box in this one.

Baltimore's offense is likely to be better this year, but in week one I don't expect huge things. Buffalo's defense has been pretty good at not giving up big plays, and Baltimore is likely to lean on the run more in this game than in most later in the year. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants meet on Sunday afternoon in the season opener. The Giants offense will have a new look under Mike Shula as their OC. Look for the Giants to try much harder to establish the run. They ended up throwing the ball 62% of the time last year. I don't expect a repeat of that. The Giants also played at the second fastest pace in the NFL last year. That should change with Shurmur and Shula in charge. They will look to hold the ball and give their defense a break.

Jacksonville's defense is clearly a top three defense in the NFL. The Jaguars have the best secondary in the NFL, and they aren't likely to give up many big plays in the passing game here. The Giants aren't good enough on the offensive line to hold this Jacksonville pass rush back either.

Jacksonville ran the ball more than any other team in the league last year. That will likely be the case again this year. They will look to run the ball as much as possible and create play action spots for Bortles rather than slinging it around. Not having Marqise Lee in the passing game this year hurts this offense badly.  The Giants run defense is likely to be better this year with the addition of Ogletree. 

The weather here is a bit questionable too. While there isn't any major rain in the forecast, there are sustained 12 mph winds here which gives the under a bit of a boost as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TAKEDOWN* Kyle Freeland has been an under machine at home. The under is a whopping 24-4 in the Rockies last 28 home games when Freeland has started at Coors Field. He is a good fit for this park with his ability to induce soft contact. Freeland has allowed less than 30% of batted balls to be classified as hard hit this year according to Baseball Savant. That's in the top 9% of all pitchers. 

The Dodgers do have a good offense, but they are much worse against lefties. The Dodgers rank second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are 19th against lefties. 

The Rockies rank second in the majors in wOBA against lefties, but they are 21st against righties. Walker Buehler is one of the best young pitching prospects in the majors. Buehler threw a gem in his last start at Coors Field.

Both teams know the importance of this series, and they'll use their best bullpen arms in this one. Ottavino is elite and he's well-rested for the Rockies. 

The under is 35-17-2 in the Dodgers last 54 vs. a left handed starting pitcher.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats picked up a big upset victory over UCLA. Cincinnati didn't win because of their offense though. Despite going up against a weak UCLA defense, Cincinnati's offense couldn't get much done. Cincinnati averaged only 3.65 yards per play and finished with 285 total yards. The Bearcats still don't have an identity on offense. Defensively, the Bearcats have a much improved defensive line, and I think they could give the Miami offensive line trouble in this game.

This game is played at Paul Brown Stadium where the Bengals played so it is a neutral site. The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon are expected to move into Cincinnati on Saturday night. The weather forecast is calling for winds of around 15 mph and a good chance of rain especially later in this game. That could make both teams run the ball more than they typically would. Offenses who are predictable clearly help the defense in a big way.

This is a big rivalry game, and last year's game was dominated by the defenses.  My numbers liked this under a decent amount even without the weather being factored in. With the weather being factored in, I think this is a good value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Indiana hosts Virginia in a Big 10 vs. ACC battle in Bloomington on Saturday night. Indiana is without their best running back in Morgan Ellison, who is suspended. Indiana has a new quarterback and I would expect the Hoosier to be a run heavy team this year behind a solid offensive line.

Virginia is implementing a new offense this year after star QB Kurt Benkert moved on. They have a youngster at QB who is not a good passer. They will look to run the ball much more this year with both their mobile QB and their running backs. The problem for Virginia is their offensive line is a weakness. Indiana's defensive line is clearly the strength of their defensive unit. Virginia isn't likely to be able to run the ball on them much here. 

The Virginia secondary is the strength of the defense, and I don't think Indiana will try to test them very often. 

Neither team is likely to be effective in the passing game especially with the weather forecast. There is a 90% of chance of rain which could be heavy and 15 mph winds from the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon. One-dimensional teams are much easier to defend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers have a totally different system on offense this year. Derek Dooley is the OC and they will be more of a pro-style offense with much less tempo than last year. I expect their games to be lower scoring than they were last season. 

The market has already moved this line down a good amount, and it is largely due to the weather. The forecast calls for 13 mph winds sustained throughout the game and some light rain.

Wyoming's passing attack is virtually non-existent, and the way to beat this Missouri defense is through the air. Missouri should be strong against the run this year. Wyoming will try to run it down their throat and control the ball for as long as possible. 

The Wyoming defense returns its top six tacklers from a year ago. The final score in their loss to Washington State last week is a little misleading, since Washington State scored 21 points in the last 11 minutes of the game. Washington State had only 394 yards of total offense.

I like both defensive lines here and with questionable weather and slower pace from both I'll take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* It's not easy to play a Navy under after the way their defense looked against Hawaii last week, but at this number I have to. Navy plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country (only Army is slower). They are going to run the football on more than 90% of their plays this year. 

The Memphis offense will be good this year, but they won't be as explosive as they were a year ago with Riley Ferguson at quarterback. Memphis will look to run the football more often. Though Memphis will still play quickly, I do expect them to be a bit slower than last year.

The Navy secondary is the weakness of their defense and Hawaii had the perfect scheme to take advantage of that. Navy is much better defensively on the front seven. I also feel that Navy is a very well coached team and I would be surprised if this unit doesn't show a lot of fight and perform better this week. 

These two teams have played each of the last 4 years, and none of those games have gone over this total. There is some recency bias in this total. I'll go under this high number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs have a tremendous defensive line. That should make it very hard for Kansas State to do much on offense here. I don't see Kansas State as a team that will be able to throw the ball much this season. They will look to run constantly and the Bulldogs have a big edge on the defensive front. 

Kansas State typically does a good job on the defensive front, and I think they can hold their own enough to slow down the Bulldogs rushing game enough here.

Both of these teams will be much slower than the average team in terms of tempo, and there should be a lot of moving clock in this one with a bunch of rushing attempts. I believe this number should be closer to 50.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Patrick Corbin has been amazing this year. Corbin has been at his best since the All Star Break. Corbin has a 2.63 ERA since the break, but his FIP is an amazing 1.28. He has 6 walks and 65 strikeouts during that time. Over the course of the season, Corbin has a 15.1% swinging strike rate, which is one of the highest swinging strike rates you will ever see. 

Kevin Gausman has thrown the ball well since coming to Atlanta. Gausman goes up against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 25th in the majors in OBP in the past 30 days. Over the course of the season, Arizona is 26th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. With Gausman in good form of late, I expect a quality start from him here.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here, and he is the single best under umpire in baseball. He has what is easily the highest strikes called percentage over the last five years. He'll help both pitchers here.

The under is 4-0 in Gausman's last 4 starts. The under is 20-7-1 in the DBacks last 28 games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets start Jacob Degrom here. Degrom has been amazing this year. He has allowed 1 run or less in 15 of his 27 starts this year. He's throwing his best of the season in recent outings as well. Degrom has a FIP of 1.82 or lower in 8 of his last 9 starts, so he has been absolutely on point of late. He has gone 8 innings or more in 5 of those 9 starts, which is important since the Mets bullpen is weak.

Alex Wood is a solid lefty, and the Mets are terrible against lefties. The Mets rank dead last in the majors in weighted on-base average against lefties at a miserable .283. Wood has allowed 3 runs or less in 12 straight starts, so he has been consistently very good. Wood has a swinging strike rate at a high 10.8%, and the Mets strike out a ton against lefties.

I see both starters throwing the ball really well here. This is likely to be a game decided by a small margin in a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils have a new offensive coordinator and a new head coach this year. I think they are likely to play a little slower on offense. Arizona State also has a new defensive coordinator in Danny Gonzales and he has implemented the 3-3-5 defense that he led at San Diego State. I think that will help the Sun Devils improve on this side of the ball.

UTSA lost a ton on offense. They return only 4 starters this year. They scored 9 points or less in three of their last four games last season. The Roadrunners play at a very slow tempo, and the offense is likely to be very weak this year. UTSA is coached by a defensive minded guy in Frank Wilson. Wilson has improved this defense in a big way, and I think they will be solid yet again. 

Take the under.