Sports Picks & Predictions

4* Major ACC Game of the Week (ESPN) on Georgia Tech +7
Duke is getting too much respect here against a quality opponent that will be very hungry after a poor performance against Georgia. Tech brings back more experience than the Blue Devils and it will be further motivated to end a 4-game losing streak against Duke. Tech is on a solid 30-14 ATS run as a home underdog or pick, including 21-8 ATS in that role under coach Hewitt. The Blue Devils are constantly overvalued, especially on Saturday's when they often play in the national spotlight as we they are here. That's why they are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Saturday games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the points.

3* NCAAB Pac-10 SMASH on Washington +4
Following an embarrassing 11-point home loss to Oregon as an 11-point favorite, expect the Huskies to bounce back in a big way tonight. Washington is 2-0 SU & ATS at Arizona State the last two seasons with a pair of double digit wins and I expect this trend to continue. In fact, the Huskies are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Arizona State and the road team is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Huskies are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog while the Sun Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the points.

3* Big Ten SMASH (ESPN 2) on Michigan +2.5
Michigan has underachieved in the early stages of the season, but I like it to build off of its win over Ohio State with a big win over a poor Penn State team tonight. The Nittany Lions have one player, Taylor Battle, and I expect an experienced and more athletic Michigan squad to find a way to hold him in check to get the "W" here. The Wolverines are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings with Penn State and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Nittany Lions just aren't good enough to be trusted in the chalk as they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. We'll side with the Wolverines here.

3* Big Ten SMASH (Big 10 Network) on Illinois -14
This may seem like a lot of points to be laying, but consider that Iowa is 0-4 when playing away from home this season and losing by 17.2 points on average in those games. Also consider that Illinois is 8-0 at home this season and winning by 20.6 points on average in those games. Illinois has lost 3 of its last 4, including a couple tough ones against Georgia and Gonzaga, and I expect it to avenge these losses in a big way against a team that I believe is easily the worst in the Big Ten. Illinois is scoring 86.0 ppg at home this season while Iowa is only scoring 59.5 points on the road. Iowa just doesn't have enough fire power to keep up tonight. The Hawkeyes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double digit loss at home. Lay the number.

3* NCAAB Game of the Night (ESPN) on Cincy -4
It's going to be tough for Pitt to get up for this one after handing Syracuse its first loss of the season Saturday. The Bearcats have already played a game and won since defeating UConn so they should be the more focused team on their home floor tonight. Plus, the Bearcats will be out for revenge here. Pittsburgh has won 3 straight over Cincy, including an 85-69 rout the last time these teams faced off. Cincy remembers that one well, and now that it is the more experienced team, I expect it to have its revenge. The Bearcats are a perfect 7-0 at home this season and they continue to defend their home court tonight.

3* NCAAB Marquee Matchup (CBS) on Louisville +7.5
I know Kentucky will be out to avenge a loss in Louisville last season, and the Wildcats likely get it done, but I expect to see a very tight game this afternoon. Kentucky is being heavily overvalued here because it is 14-0, and the Wildcats are going to see a scrappy intense defense unlike any they have seen this season today. The home team has been constantly overvalued in this series and that's why the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Plus, the Cardinals are 26-8-1 ATS in their last 35 road games, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog. We'll take the points.

4* Rivalry Game of the Month (ESPN 2) on Tennessee +2.5
This game is all about revenge for Tennessee, which fell to Memphis by 2 points last season. The Vols have the edge in terms of experience, and now that Coach Cal is with Kentucky, they have the edge in the coaching department. The Vols have had this one circled since last season and they have now had 8 days to prepare. Memphis just played on the 28th so it has just had a few short days to prepare for this hungry and talented Tennessee team. The Underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Volunteers are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Take Tennessee.

4* Major NCAAB Under the Radar Cash Cow on Wyoming +2.5
The Cowboys are showing good value in the home dog role today against an Akron team that has only played one other true road game this season. Wyoming has won its last 4 home games, and I expect it to come out strong tonight to wash the taste of an 18-point loss to Northern Iowa out of its mouth. Plus, the Cowboys have not played since 12/23 so they have had plenty of time to scheme for the Zips. Akron is scoring just 59.7 ppg in 4 games away from home this season and I see its lack of explosiveness as problematic against a Wyoming team scoring 81.3 ppg in 9 home contests. The Cowboys are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less points. They are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. Take Wyoming.

4* Major NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN 2) on Penn State +12
The only quality opponent Minnesota has defeated is Butler. With that in mind, I find the Gophers overvalued in this Big Ten opener with both team's looking to get off to a strong start. The Nittany Lions have been a valuable underdog when you consider that they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in the role. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog in the 7.0-12.5-point range. Taylor Battle is really off to a strong start for the Nittany Lions and I expect him to keep them in the game tonight. He has already gone off for 30-plus against a pair of ACC schools, including a VA Tech team that can really defend. We'll take the points.

3* Saturday Big East SMASH (CBS) on Seton Hall +3.5
Expert a hungry Seton Hall team here as it seeks to pay the Mountaineers back for handing it a lopsided defeat last season. I'm just not ready to trust WVU laying this much road chalk against a motivated opponent, especially when you consider that the Mountaineers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, including 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take Seton Hall.

3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on BYU -6.5
BYU is really lighting up the hoop right now and I don't think Nebraska has the offensive fire power to keep pace. In fact, BYU is 8-1 ATS after a game where it made 60% of its shots or better, winning in these spots by an average score of 80.1 to 70.2. I feel this line is a little soft and we'll look to take advantage. Lay the points.

3* SMASH (ESPN 2) on Cal +13
Odds makers are giving a little too much respect to the No. 1 team in the land tonight, just as you would expect them to with the public all over the Jayhawks. A big reason why you have to like Cal in this spot is because it takes extremely good care of the rock. In fact, the Golden Bears are a perfect 8-0 ATS under coach Montgomery after 2 straight games with 11 or less turnovers. Cal hasn't played since Dec. 9th so it has had a lot of time to prepare for the Jayhawks. We'll take the points.

3* SMASH (ESPN 2) on Michigan State +8.5
The Spartans have had Texas' number, picking up wins against the Horns each of the last 3 seasons. While Texas could finally have its revenge tonight, I can't see this one not being extremely close with the level of experience that Michigan State has and with as well as the Spartans defense. Let's just say that the Spartans have owned the Big 12 Conference over the last few seasons, racking up a 6-0 ATS mark while winning by an average score of 77.8 to 70.2. Michigan State has been chomping at the bit for another opportunity to show the country that it is better than it showed when it lost at UNC. Expect the Spartans to do just that tonight.

3* Monday Night NCAAB SMASH on South Carolina St +16
Iowa is 2-8 ATS in all lined games and 1-5 ATS in all lined home games this season. It is coming off an emotional win over in-state rival Drake and I just don't see the Hawkeyes getting up for this game the same way. Iowa is not an explosive offensive team. It plays half court basketball, and as a result, is only scoring 63.1 ppg this season, which makes the 16 we are catching even more valuable. The Hawkeyes are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. Also, plays against favorites of 10 or more points who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game, playing in the month of December, are 39-18 ATS the last 5 seasons. Iowa is not a high pressure defensive team which looks to covert turnovers into points, which is another factor making these 16 points look pretty good. Take the points.

4* Major ESPN Game of the Week on North Carolina +7
Texas is laying too many points on a neutral floor. I know this game is still in Texas, but it won't be the same as if the Horns were playing in their home gym. UNC has the athletes and the talent to matchup well with Texas and the Heels will also find themselves more prepared for the intensity of this game having played a much tough schedule to this point. The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the points.

3* NCAAB Home Court Crusher on CS Northridge -2.5
Drexel is just 1-4 on the road this season and I expect it to struggle playing a long ways away from home against a CS Northridge team that is 3-0 at home on the year. Northridge is coming off back-to-back road losses so it will be extremely pumped to get back on its home floor tonight. Northridge will draw additional motivation from a loss at Drexel last season. It lost by 8 points as a 3-point dog in that game and I expect it to return the favor here. The Dragons are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less while the Matadors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Lay the number.

4* Major NCAAB Line Mistake of the Week on San Jose State +2
Believe the wrong team is favored here. The Spartans have 1 less win on the season, but they have played a much more challenging schedule. Plus, San Jose State brings back more experience with 4 returning starters. The Spartans are now 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and on a terrific 15-5 ATS run in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams making >=37% of their attempts. Take San Jose State tonight.

3* Wednesday NCAAB SMASH on Richmond +5
Richmond is a dangerous dog at a deadly 14-4 ATS in the underdog roll over the last 2 seasons. Richmond is also a very resilient team so I expect it to be extremely focused tonight after a loss in its last game. It also comes as no surprise that it is 19-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Also, Richmond is 8-0 ATS versus very good teams, who are outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons, winning straight up in these spots by an average score of 70.6 to 69.9. The Gamecocks are just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 home games and I think they are getting too much respect tonight. Take the points.

3* SMASH on Louisiana Tech -3
Louisiana Tech won at Murray State by 9 points last season in a game where it was a 9.5-point dog. Now Tech has home court on its side and I expect it to take better advantage of that than Murray State did last season. Tech has been on the road a lot in the early part of the season so it will be happy to see its home floor tonight where it is 2-0 with a pair of blowout wins. The key tonight is how well the Bulldogs have played against good competition since the beginning of last season. In fact, Tech is 16-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record during the span. Tech has a huge size advantage which should win it the battle of the boards and the game. Can't see a smaller Murray State team having an answer for the 6'11 Magnum Rolle. Lay the points.

4* Major NCAAB *BEST BET* on Villanova -3
Nova is the better team. While Temple will likely hang around for a while, Nova will have too much down the stretch not to win and cover this number. While Temple is good defensively, it isn't good enough to keep Nova's much stronger offense in check all game long. This game reminds me a lot of the 2007 game when Nova was a 2.5-point favorite and won by 8 points at Temple. The Cats have covered 4 straight in this matchup and are 10-2 ATS in the last 12. Take Nova.

3* Saturday Night NCAAB *BEST BET* on Northern Iowa -3
This is a revenge game for the Panthers who bring back all 5 starters from a team that lost at Siena by 6 points last season. I expect the Panthers to return the favor at home tonight where they are holding their opponents to just 47.5 ppg. Siena hasn't seen a team that gets after its opponents on the defensive end like UNI all season and this defense will be the key to a win and cover for the Panthers tonight. The Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall and an even stronger 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. We'll lay the points on UNI at home in this revenge spot.

3* CBB Revenge Blowout on Boston College -11.5

Harvard went into Boston last year and gave the Eagles a 82-70 beatdown that you can bet they won't forget. Harvard is coming off a hard fought game against UConn in which they battled tough to a six-point loss, but the Huskies most likely were looking past them to their showdown with Kentucky tonight. The Eagles have played a decent schedule up to this point, beating times like Miami, Michigan and Providence in their last three. This is a lot of points to be laying tonight, but when a team has revenge on their minds you know they are not going to be content with winning a close one. Take BC to win big.

5* Motivational Mismatch Game of the Year on K-State -5
The last time these two teams faced off, Xavier handed K-State an embarrassing 103-77 loss, a loss the players and their head coach are calling one of the worst they've ever endured. Now K-State is the more experienced side and it won't be short on motivation to return the favor to Xavier tonight. This is also an extremely difficult spot for Xavier as they play their first true road game against a Wildcat team that has not lost at home this season. We also have a strong system play in support of our side that tells us to play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after leading their last 3 games by 5 or more points at the half, with four starters returning from last year's team in the first 10 games of the season. This system is a terrific 29-8 ATS since 1997 and it has seen teams favored by an average of 6.4 points win by an average of 12.1 points. It is also worth noting that this system is 10-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

3* Saturday NCAAB Line Mistake on Penn St +7.5
I think the odds makers are spotting the Nittany Lions too many points today and we'll look to take advantage. The Underdog is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and Penn State has been outstanding when catching points. In fact, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Penn State was upset by 6 points by Temple last season and it will have a great opportunity to return the favor here. Take the points as this one goes right down to the wire.

3* SMASH on Illinois Chicago +9.5
Odds makers are giving Wisconsin Milwaukee far too much respect here simply because they knew the public would bite hard on the team with the better record. Truth is, non-conference records don't always tell the truth. Illinois Chicago has hung tight with a couple solid teams from the MVC while Wisconsin Milwaukee has beat up on a bunch of cream puffs. This matchup has been a tight one in recent years with the last 3 meetings being decided by 8 points or less and I expect no different here. Plus, it's nice to know we're backing a team that covered 7 of its last 8 and 5 straight in Horizon league play. Take the points.

4* Major Wednesday Night NCAAB *BEST BET* on Tulsa -2
It's no surprise the public is siding with the unbeaten Cowboys here, but I am confident in saying Tulsa is the better team, especially at home where it is 5-0 this season and 38-4 the last 3 seasons. The Golden Hurricane are the most talented team in C-USA, returning 4 starters from a team that won 25 games last season. They bring back more experience than the Cowboys and a slower style of play that will give an Oky State team preferring to play in transition fits tonight. The Golden Hurricane are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less points while the Cowboys are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or less points. Take Tulsa.

4* Major Tuesday NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Michigan State +2.5
Expect Sparty to have its revenge tonight after falling to the Heels in last year's National Title Game. Michigan State brings back the much more experienced team and the much better defensive team. While UNC is off to a 6-1 start, it has not been burying its opponents the way we are used to seeing early in the season as this young group of Heels still has plenty to learn about the defensive end of the floor. Losing to Florida was the early season wake up call the Spartans needed. They bounced back from that loss with an impressive 106-68 win over UMass and they will not be lacking motivation here. One big key here is that Michigan State should win the battle of the boards and UNC is on a 6-17 ATS slide in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams, outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game. Also, Michigan State 6-0 ATS after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since the beginning of the 2007 season and UNC is 0-8 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive non-conference games since the beginning of last season. Take Michigan State.

3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Illinois -8
I like Illinois to flex its muscles against a young Utah team tonight. Utah is 2-2 on the season and could easily be 1-3. After losing its three best players off last year's team, I expect the Utes to really struggle this season. The Fighting Illini are an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss. Odds makers are yet to adjust their line to the current state of each team, an Illinois team that is improved and a Utah team that is mediocre at best. Lay the number.

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Cornell +14
This is a huge letdown spot for Syracuse tonight after big wins over Cal and UNC. The Orange aren't as talented or as experienced as they were a season ago, making this an even tougher spot for them. Cornell returns all 5 starters from a team that has made the NCAA tourney back-to-back years now and presents problems for the Orange because of how dangerous it is from beyond the arc. Boeheim sticks with his patented zone through thick and thin but Cornell is shooting 46.2% from 3 in two road games this season. The Big Red actually had the Orange down 16 points in the Carrier Dome last season. A better Syracuse team was able to come back to win by 10 points but Cornell still easily covered the 16-point number. In fact, the Big Red are a Perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at Syracuse. I must also mention that this is a very motivated spot for Cornell after being upset by Seton Hall and it is on a perfect 7-0 ATS run in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more. Also, the Big Red are 13-1-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home and 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or more points. The Big Red are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Big East while the Orange are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Ivy League. The public is all over the Orange as they are off to a 4-0 SU & ATS start. The books knew what side the money would be going down on here and they have given themselves a cushion with the Big Red. The odds makers expect to make bank with Cornell tonight, but we make sure they make a little less. Take the points.

3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Texas -14.5
Iowa's point guard and best player, Jake Kelly transferred following last season and that has left the Hawkeyes in bad shape. They are giving up a ton in size, talent, and athletic ability in this one; so much that I don't think they can keep this one under a 20-point loss. Iowa lives and dies by the three, but Texas is long and athletic and has shown a willingness to defense early one, limiting its opponents to 17.2% from the 3-point line. Texas will treat this one like its first challenge of the season since it is playing a major conference team for the first time and that doesn't look good for Iowa. Lay the number.

4* Major NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Vandy +5
Last Friday, I took St. Mary's for an easy late night winner as they took on an inferior New Mexico State team missing some key players. Saint Mary's 2 blowout wins to start the year are the reason why we are seeing it laying so many points here. Today, I'm going to fade the Gaels as they get their first test of the season against a more experienced Vandy team with all 5 starters returning. Right away history is on our side when you consider that plays on any team after a blowout win by 20 points or more, with 3 or more starters returning than their opponent, in the first ten games of the season, are 66-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, the Commodores are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 20 points while St. Mary's is on a 2-10 ATS run after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3 point shots. The Gaels won't get as many good looks tonight and with the 3's not falling with regularity, I look for Vandy to win this one outright.

4* Major Tuesday Night NCAAB Blowout on Illinois -21
NIU lost by 22 in its first game to Northwestern and it is clearly out of its league against the Illini tonight. In fact, plays on home favorites of 20 or more points off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, in November games, are 71-32 ATS since 1997. Also, NIU is just 2-10 ATS as a road underdog or pick since the beginning of last season while Illinois in on a 10-1 ATS run in home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game, winning in these spots by an average score of 81.8 to 59.7. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Indiana State +11
Indiana State came on strong at the end of last season and it returns 4 starters from that team. It also inherits the best player off the Big Ten's Iowa Hawkeyes, Jake Kelly, who transferred to be closer to home concerning personal family matters. He averaged 11.6 ppg for Iowa last season and he scored 16 points in ISU's opener. He is a tall guard, who handles the ball extremely well. He can shoot off the dribble and is a solid playmaker. He's a player I believe will take the MVC by storm. Expect a down season from LSU and some early struggles as it adjusts to a lot of new faces getting a lot of playing time. Consider that LSU is on a 2-11 slide as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points, winning in these spot by just 3.3 point on average. Lastly, the Sycamores are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. I'll take the points.

3* NCAAB Season Opener on St. Mary's CA -7
New Mexico St is 2-10 ATS in road games in non-conference play over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average of 12.3 ppg. Plus, New Mexico State will be without of a pair of players who averaged double digits for them last season as both Wendell McKines and Troy Gillenwater sit for academic purposes. That's just too many points missing for the rest of the guys to make up here. Lay the number.

5* 2009 NCAA Championship Game MONSTER BEST BET on Michigan State +8
We cashed in our 5* Sweet 16 GOTY on the Spartans over Kansas. Then, we cashed in our 5* Elite 8 BEST BET on Michigan State over Louisville. We cashed in on Michigan State yet again with our 3* Final Four First Blood play as it defeated UConn. I think it's time everyone started believing in the Spartans. If you thought Ford Field was electric for Michigan State's Final Four matchup with UConn, wait until you hear the crowd roar tonight. This is going to be very much like a home game with Spartans and underdog fans cheering against the Tar Heels. Another key factor in this one is that UNC smoked a tired Michigan State team that was playing without Goran Suton in this same building early in the season. That is ammo for Tom Izzo to get his boys ready to go if I've ever seen it. Defense wins championships and the Spartans have the better defense. They were able to take both Louisville and UConn completely out of what they like to do and I expect the Spartans to make life difficult on the Tar Heels as well. Offensively, North Carolina is not the best defensive team in the country so Michigan State is going to be able to score the basketball. The Heels aren't as big and strong on the interior as UConn and Michigan State was able to dominate at times on the glass. I expect the Spartans to win the boards tonight. It's been pretty much a breeze for the Heels to this point, but the picnic ends tonight as they will be in for a battle with a strong defensive opponent. Michigan State has shown that it won't back down from anyone and I'll grab the points tonight as the Spartans can win this thing. The Spartans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games, 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 NCAA Tournament games. Michigan State is 15-4 ATS in all neutral court lined games over the last 2 seasons and 14-4 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season. Bet the Spartans!

5* Final Four Game of the Year on North Carolina -7
Villanova has made an amazing run, but this is where it ends. The Tar Heels were crushed in last year's Final Four matchup with Kansas but they won't be denied this time around. Every one talks about Villanova's defense, but it is used to defending the half court offenses of the Big East. Just like all of UNC's other opponents in the dance, Villanova will eventually run out of gas against the Carolina run and gun attack. Jay Wright can try it all, but I really believe that there will be no answer for Ty Lawson and that will be the difference. The Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games period. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. UNC is 8-1 ATS in NCAA tournament games over the last 2 seasons and 19-6 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points.

3* Final Four First Blood on Michigan State +4.5
Michigan State is not getting nearly enough credit. This is a team which took out defending champion Kansas and then completely dominated Big East champ Louisville. The Spartans will be up for the challenge this evening and it doesn't hurt that they will be playing close to home at Ford Field. Michigan State is a big, physical, defensive team which can make life very difficult for the Huskies on the offensive end, just like they did against Louisville. Michigan State is 15-6 ATS when playing away from home versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 69.1 to 68.4. The Spartans are 13-4 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season, 14-4 ATS in all neutral court lined games over the last 2 seasons, and 16-6 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Take the points.

5* CBI Tournament GOTY on UTEP -8.5
We had UTEP in game two and endured a 2-point ATS loss that should have never happened. The Miners missed 15 free throws and shot just 2 of 12 from three-point range in that game. Oregon State has had a good run, but with the CBI Title on the line, I don't see the better team in this matchup playing as poorly again. After a terrible first half, the Miners outscored Oregon State 40-28 in the second and I expect UTEP to pick up right where it left off. Oregon State is 0-6 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders this season, losing by an average score of 53.0 to 69.3 in these spots. UTEP is 7-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. The books were hit hard with Oregon State's surprising cover in game 2, but they'll get it all back and then some tonight as the Miners take care of business with a double digit win. Lay the points.

4* Major NIT Championship Game MONSTER BEST BET (ESPN) on Penn State +4
This should be a pick 'em game in my opinion so I'll definitely grab the points here. Both of these teams have great guards who are good play makers and can really score the basketball, but the edge goes to Penn State because of its defense. Penn State allows just 62.6 ppg on the season while Baylor gives up 70.1. The Nittany Lions have especially turned up the heat in their last 2 games, holding Florida and Notre Dame to 62 and 59 points respectively. Baylor definitely has the look of a false favorite when you consider that it is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Nittany Lions are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. I believe Penn State is the tougher, grittier team and that gets the Nittany Lions the NIT championship tonight!

4* Major CBI Tournament Championship Series BEST BET on UTEP -9
The odds makers have gotten the public on Oregon State with this line which is right where they want them as this one is going to be a rout for UTEP. The Miners are at home and it's a do-or-die game. Oregon State has had the benefit of playing all of its tournament games at home but I expect disaster for the Beavers when it steps out of its routine for the first time since March 11. Oregon State is just 4-10 when playing away from home this season. The Beavers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. The Miners are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Lay the points.

5* NIT FINAL FOUR BEST BET (ESPN 2) on Notre Dame -4
Penn State is a small team and that does not bode well for them tonight against first team All-Big East stud Luke Harangody and company. The Irish have a big advantage with their front line and should dominate the painted area because of it. Penn State won't have the luxury of doubling down on Harangody either, because Kyle McAlarney and company can torch you from the perimeter. This Notre Dame team went 25-8 last season so this season has been a big disappointment. But the Irish are making the best of it and I expect them to continue their winning ways in the Garden. Penn State took out Florida on its home court to get here and that sets up a nice system in our favor. Penn State is just 1-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 59.2 to 72.9 in these spots. Lay the points!

3* NIT FINAL FOUR SMASH (ESPN 2) on Baylor -1
Baylor has been the more inconsistent team this season, but this time of year it's all about what have you done for me lately and Baylor has won 6 of its last 7 with big wins over Kansas, Texas, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, and Auburn. This will be SDSU's first game stepping away from home in the NIT and that gives the advantage to Baylor, which has won its last two in true road games to get to the Garden. San Diego State typically does a good job of taking care of the basketball, but up against a quick Baylor team and playing a long ways from home, I expect turnovers to tell the story. Plus, SDSU is 0-8 ATS in road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997, losing in these spots by an average score of 76.4 to 82.1. Take Baylor.

3* CBI Tournament Championship Series Game 1 BEST BET on UTEP -1
The Beavers don't have the horses to stick with a very good UTEP squad tonight. The Beavers have escaped by the skin of their teeth thus far in this tourney but now they come up against a more athletic, better shooting team, that has been unphased on the road. UTEP is 10-3 ATS in road lined games this season and 11-3 ATS in non-conference games this season. Automatically you know the Beavers are in trouble when you see odds makers put their over/under numbers in the 130's as they are just is 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 56.3 to 71.9 in these spots. Bet UTEP.

5* Elite Eight BEST BET Michigan State +7.5
The Spartans have an excellent chance to win this game outright so I won't hesitate to grab the points. The big key is that Michigan State is solid enough defensively to limit Louisville's scoring runs and offensively it has good enough guard play, led by Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas, to beat the Louisville pressure consistently. Michigan State is 13-4 ATS in all neutral court lined games over the last 2 seasons and 18-5 ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season after 15+ games since 1997. Also, Michigan State is 17-3 when playing away from home this season and you're not going to fin better than that. Louisville has had a soft road to this point with Morehead State, Siena, and Arizona while the Spartans have had tough games with USC and Kansas to reach this point. A tough tournament schedule will have the Spartans ready to go today. Bet Michigan State.

5* Elite Eight GOTY on Pittsburgh -1.5
Pitt shows excellent value here as failing to cover a game in the NCAA tournament, while Nova has covered 2 straight in impressive wins, has brought this line down. Consider that Pitt was a 3.5-point favorite on the road when these teams met earlier this season. That meeting, which saw Nova win, is crucial here. While getting to the Final Four is motivation enough for any team to lay it all on the line, that only adds to Pitt's motivation here. Particularly for DeJuan Blair, who will want to have a much better game this time around. You also have to consider that Nova has played as well as it can play in back-to-back games and is due for a letdown while Pitt has just gotten by and is primed for a breakout performance. Here's the key: Pitt is 8-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) this season, winning by an average score of 69.8 to 57.8. Nova won't get the Panthers twice. Lay the points.

4* Major Sweet 16 Bailout on UNC -8.5
UNC finally got Ty Lawson back on the floor against LSU and he was a little rusty early on, but it all started clicking and the Heels won by 14. Same deal here, Gonzaga will be able to hang around for a while, but it won

5* Sweet 16 GOTY on Michigan State -1
These two teams met earlier this season with the Spartans winning 75-62. Kansas has improved since then, but so has Michigan State. The Spartans have been the much better team when playing away from home this season so they get my call here. Also, while having won it all a year ago may give the Jayhawks some confidence, it also puts a larger target on their back and that does not play to their advantage. Michigan State has won 16 of 19 games away from home this season while the Jayhawks have won just 9 of 16. While Collins and Aldrich played key roles for the Jayhawks last season, this team is still very young so Michigan State gets the advantage in terms of experience. Michigan State is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season, 11-4 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season, 12-4 ATS in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons, and 6-0 ATS against Big 12 conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. Pound Michigan State!

3* Sweet 16 Vegas Line Mistake on Louisville -9
It

5* East Region GOTY on Duke -2
Now that the Wildcats have to play outside the Wachovia Center, I expect a much more vulnerable team. Simply put, it isn

4* Major Sweet 16 Underdog Shocker on Purdue +7
The public is all over No. 1 seed UConn after dominating in the first two rounds, but they

3* NIT BAILOUT on San Diego State -3
The public has fallen in love with Patty Mills and company, but that's because they don't know enough about this SDSU team. These two teams actually faced off on a neutral floor back in December with St. Mary's edging out SDSU by 3 points, but the Aztecs are a much, much better team than they were then and I'll lay the points with them on their home floor tonight. SDSU is experience with 5 starters returning from last year. The Aztecs have won 7 of their last 8, with their only loss being a 2-point setback to Utah which kept them out of the Big Dance. They just crushed K-State by 18 and have had 5 days to prepare for this one while the Gaels just played Monday. The key is SDSU's defense. St.Mary's is 3-13 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons. SDSU is 6-0 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season and 7-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games this season. Lay the number!

5* NIT BEST BET on Notre Dame -2.5
Notre Dame has had 5 days to prepare for this one and the Irish get home court where they are 14-3 this season with all 3 losses coming to NCAA Tournament teams. This is a matchup where you will see first hand how much better the Big East is than the SEC this year. As if playing at Notre Dame isn't difficult enough, it's not going to help the Wildcats that they are coming off a highly emotional and physically draining game at Creighton the night before last. This sets up a spectacular system which tells us to play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins. This system is 27-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, this is the last home game for several Notre Dame seniors and I expect that to up their intensity even more. Lay the points.

4* Major NIT BEST BET (ESPN) on Penn State +10.5
This line reflects the hip injury to Talor Battle, but he is expected to go and Jamelle Cornley will likely go as well. Florida was good at home this season, but the Gators did not see any teams in the SEC that played defense like the Nittany Lions. This solid defense easily keeps this one within the number. The Nittany Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Simply put, Penn State is getting too many. Take the points.

3* NIT SMASH (ESPN) on Baylor +3.5
Auburn has played great down the stretch, but so has Baylor and its wins have come against better competition. Wins over Tennessee Martin and Tulsa aren't exactly the same as wins over Georgetown and Va Tech. Its been a disappointing season for the Bears as they peaked too late, but they are making the most of it in this NIT tournament. Auburn was sensational at home against against the numbers this season, but I feel strongly that Baylor is the superior team here with more to prove. The Bears are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less and 13-4 ATS in road tournament games over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. We'll bet the Bears tonight.

3* NIT Bailout on St Marys -4
St. Mary's is the better team laying a small number on its home floor. The Gaels have a huge advantage on the interior, and Patty Mills, who missed so much time with that hand injury, is back and ready to show the college basketball world just how good he is. The Gaels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Wildcats are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Lay the number.

5* NIT Game of the Week on Creighton -1.5
Both of these teams wanted to be playing in the Big Dance and Creighton probably has the bigger beef about not getting in. The Jays' apathy showed in their first round win over Bowling Green by just 2 points as a 12-point favorite. Now that the fire of not getting in has settled a little bit, the Jays can focus on winning this tournament and you can bet that they will be jacked up here with Kentucky and Jodie Meeks stepping into the building. Kentucky has lost its last 3 true road games and has not been solid on the road all season. I'll go with a Creighton team that is 16-2 at home on the season. Kentucky is 0-8 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games this season. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The deciding factor here will be how solid Creighton is from the 3-point line as Kentucky is 1-8 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average score of 63.8 to 77.3 in these spots. Take Creighton at home.

5* NCAA Tournament Sunday BLOWOUT on Pitt -8
Great spot to back Pitt today. This team got the wake up call of a lifetime in round one with 16 seed ETSU giving them all they wanted and more. Oklahoma State won a very emotionally draining round one game which will make it very tough to bounce back so quickly. Each time the Panthers have lost this season, they have won by at least 10 points in their very next game. Friday's game was not a loss, but I'm sure it felt similar. The Cowboys are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog while the Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. This experienced Pitt team went home in the second round a season ago and it isn't about to let that happen here. Offensive explosion from Pitt!

3* SMASH on Arizona -2.5
After a huge win over Wake Forest, this one has letdown written all over it for Cleveland State. Arizona is 11-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as a favorite. This Arizona team is better than its getting credit for with this line. I'll lay the points.

4* Major Early Annihilator on Syracuse -2
The Orange are getting no respect with this line and we'll take advantage. Syracuse is 6-0 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 82.2 to 71.0. Cuse is also 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. A focused and determined Syracuse team get it done to start the day.

3* SMASH on Oklahoma -6.5
Michigan is a young team and that spells letdown in round 2 following a first round outright win as an underdog. The Sooners are the more balanced team with a huge edge on the interior. Oklahoma had a great season, but it didn't win the Big 12 regular season or tournament titles so in its mind, it hasn't won anything yet. I expect a big time performance from OU to send the Wolverines packing today. OU is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season. Michigan is 6-17 ATS when playing away from home versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. We'll lay the points.

5* 2009 NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Purdue +1.5
Purdue is rolling, having won 4 straight. This team is finally healthy and you will see a team which is much better than its No. 5 seed indicates here. Getting a mild scare in its first round game only gets Purdue more focused for this one. Washington has the home court, so to speak, with the game in Portland, but that won?t be enough of a factor for the Huskies to beat the better team. Purdue returns all 5 starters from a team that went home in the 2nd round a season ago. The experience they gained last year, and the disappointment of going home early, gets the Boilermakers into the Sweet 16. Washington is a young team, especially at the guard spots, and that is not to your benefit this time of year. I feel strongly that the odds makers are purposefully favoring the wrong team here because they know the public will back the higher seed playing close to home and coming off a more impressive win. Purdue is 15-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 68.6 to 60.6. The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog, and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog. On top of that, defensively, there is no comparison between these two teams as Purdue allows 10.3 less points per game than the Huskies. I?m going big on Purdue here.

4* Major Afternoon Delight on Memphis -9
The Tigers really struggled in round one, but I don't expect those struggles to continue. We'll call Northridge a wake up call for Memphis and I'm expecting a blowout here today. Maryland has had some good moments this season, but they lack the size up front to compete on the boards and I look for Memphis' pressure to really make life tough on Vazquez. The Tigers are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. I'll back Memphis here as its performance in round one creates line value in this matchup.

4* Major NCAA Tournament BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Florida State -2.5
FSU is the hands down better team with the best player on the floor in Toney Douglas. After a sour championship game performance in the ACC Tourney, expect the Noles to be out for blood in round one. Wisconsin is 1-9 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games this season and just 1-9 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games this season. On the other side, FSU is 7-1 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. I'll lay the points here.

5* NCAA TOURNAMENT 1ST RD BOMB on USC -2.5
It's not always about who you beat during the regular season, it is mostly about what have you done for me lately this time of year, and lately, USC has been one of the most dangerous teams in the country. The Eagles lost 5 of their last 9 games while a finally healthy USC squad comes in having won 5 in a row SU and ATS. I'll take the team with way more momentum on its side in this one. First off, BC is 2-10 ATS when playing away from home versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 63.5 to 77.2. Secondly, USC is 9-1 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 71.1 to 61.3. Lastly, coach Floyd is 22-5 ATS after a win by 6 points or less as the coach of USC. USC is the No. 10 seed while BC is the 7 but odds makers have accurately favored the better team here playing its best ball of the season. We'll lay the points as I look for USC to crush this number.

3* SMASH on Arizona +1.5
The Wildcats have the look of a very dangerous team in this tournament because they can play with nothing to lose. They probably didn't even think they would get in with the way they finished the season, but now that they are I have them making the most of it. The Wildcats have played their best ball this season against the best teams as they are 10-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 80.3 to 76.2. Take the Cats.

3* SMASH on Missouri -12.5
This line is a joke. We all know how bad Indiana was this season and Cornell lost to the Hoosiers by 15 points. Mizzou is rolling and we will take the Tigers to beat this soft line. The only way Cornell has a chance to come close to this line is if Missouri has a ton of turnovers and I don't see that happening. Missouri is 6-0 ATS after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 83.3 to 62.0. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Dayton +9
Odds makers are giving a very good Dayton team too many points here. The Flyers defeated a Xavier team which went to the Elite Eight last season and they knocked off Marquette when it was at full strength. On a neutral floor, I expect this one to go right down to the wire so I'm taking the points. The Mountaineers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as a favorite, 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. Atlantic 10, and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. The Flyers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big East. Take the points.

3* Crunch Time Bailout on Western Kentucky +5
I really like the Hilltoppers to move on here against an Illinois team that has struggled outside Champagne. The Hilltoppers took down 5 seed Drake in last year's Tourney and I expect them to be dangerous once again. WKU is 16-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons and 7-0 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. WKU is 14-1 ATS in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons and 11-0 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major Dog of the Day on Michigan +5.5
Clemson really struggled down the stretch, losing 4 of its last 5 games, including a very sour loss to lowly Georgia Tech in the ACC Tourney. John Beilein showed us what he can do in the Tournament when he was at WVU and now I like him to work a little first round magic here. Michigan has proven just how deadly it can be with wins over Duke and UCLA and Purdue. Outside of a one big win over Duke, the Tigers have crumbled in most big games. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite while the Wolverines are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the points.

5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round GOTY on Washington -5
Mississippi State has made a great run down the stretch to get into the tournament but this team is no Cinderella. Washington is the best team in the Pac-10 and it gets to play this game in its own backyard in Portland. While winning the SEC Tournament gives the Bulldogs a feeling of accomplishment, falling out of the Pac-10 tourney prematurely has the Huskies feeling like they haven't yet accomplished anything. That loss to Arizona State sets up a system that has been very good to backers. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 1 or more consecutive losses, when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament are 25-5 ATS since 1997. I'm laying the points!

3* NCAA Tourney First Blood on LSU -2
Butler had a fantastic season which went far better than anyone could have expected, but the reality is that the Bulldogs are young and experience counts this time of year. I'll take a LSU team which returns 4 starters and continues to fly under the radar to crush the Bulldogs here. LSU has a big edge in terms of athletic ability and I expect the Tigers to win the turnover battle. Butler's defense doesn't force many turnover and it is 0-6 ATS after a game forcing an opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The turnover battle decides this one and LSU has the edge.

4* Major NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Oregon State +1
There's no way that Houston should be favored over Oregon State here. Oregon State has a losing record, but it plays in a stronger league. The biggest things to lack at here are how Houston will fare against Oregon State's Princeton Style offense and it's extended 1-3-1 defense and the answer is not good. The only decent team Houston has beaten on the road is UTEP. It about beat Arizona before the Wildcats started kicking things in gear but close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades. Oregon State's frustrating style of play has produced wins over Cal, USC, Washington State, and Stanford. Houston doesn't have a resume like that. Plus, the public is backing a team that is 1-8 in its last 9 games ATS. Odds makers are laughing about that one. We'll take the Beavers.

3* NIT SMASH on Tennessee Martin +12
Auburn has covered the number in 10 of the last 11 and comes from a power conference so naturally the public is all over the Tigers. But not so fast. Martin won the Ohio Valley regular season title and has now had 12 days off to fine tune its game on both sides of the ball. You can say that Martin was crushed by Tennessee early in the season and that Auburn beat Tennessee this season, but you can also say that Auburn lost to Mercer early in the season. You have to look at how these teams are playing now and right now Tennessee Martin is not 12 points worse than an Auburn team playing in a weak major conference league. Especially when the little guy in this matchup will be far more motivated. Tennessee Martin is 16-6 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last 2 seasons and it will keep this one within single digits.

4* Major NIT 1st Round BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech -7
VA Tech has shown that it can play with anyone in the country at home so a Duquesne team which was slaughtered by 20+ at Duke and at Pitt this season won't stand a chance tonight. Duquesne is 0-7 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. VA Tech is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons. This is significant as the Hokies are winning by an average score of 76.9 to 57.7 in these spots. We'll lay the points.

4* Major NIT Underdog Shocker on Rhode Island +4.5
The Rams have been outstanding ATS in non-conference action at 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Top to bottom the A-10 was a better league this season and you will see that on display here. Another big key is that Rhode Island head coach Jim Baron is 12-1 against the Purple eagles in his career. Now that's having a team's number. Rhode Island has a great shot to win this one outright so we'll take the points.

5* NIT GOTY on S. Carolina -3.5
The Gamecocks have won 2 of the last 4 NIT championships. While this team had high hopes of playing in the NCAA Tourney, this tells us that we don't expect a letdown from this team because it didn't go dancing. While Curry has been a fine player again this season, the Davidson supporting cast is not as good as it was a season ago. That means all the Gamecocks will have to do is keep Curry from shooting a high percentage and this one will be in the books. SC is 16-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to Tennessee and Clemson, which are both in the Big Dance. SC ended the season on a disappointing note with a double digit loss to eventual SEC Tourney Champ Mississippi State, but the Gamecocks are is 8-1 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Davidson is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. A more athletic South Carolina squad get the job done at home tonight. Lay the points.

3* Big Ten Championship Game BEST BET on Purdue -6
There's no question about the talent of the Buckeyes, but they are young and I expect a big letdown after an emotional win over No. 1 seed Michigan State. It is clear how badly Purdue wants this Big Ten Tourney title and nothing will stand in its way. Purdue was a 9.5-point favorite at home in the last meeting this season and crushed the Buckeyes by 25. This game will have a home court feel for the Boilers playing in front of a lot of their faithful. Purdue is now 15-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

5* ACC Tournament GOTY on FSU +6
FSU is hitting on all cylinders right now and will look to finish the job against Duke. The Seminoles lost by just 3 points at Duke 12 days ago and will be out to avenge that loss here. Duke hasn't blown anyone out in over a month so this line is definitely inflated. Knocking off UNC and Duke to win the highest rated RPI conference will do wonders for FSU's tourney seed so that is a huge motivator here. The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog, 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog. Also, the Seminoles are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 vs. Atlantic Coast. The Blue Devils are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 10-22 ATS in their last 32 neutral site games as a favorite, and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Bet FSU!

3* SWAC Championship Game on Alabama State -2.5
Condensed Writeup to get these out to you ASAP. There will be lots of Bama State fans in Birmingham for this one and the home court fan base will give the Hornets a nice edge. In addition, Jackson State defeated the Hornets by 3 points in the last meeting this season so this will be a revenge spot for Bama State. We're looking at a Jackson State team that is just 9-14 when playing away from home this season and this one will feel like a true road game with all the Hornets in the house.. I'm laying the points.

3* Big East Conf. Tourney Championship Game (ESPN) on Louisville -6
Condensed writeup to get these out to you ASAP. This is where tired legs finally catch up with the Orange. This will be their 4th game in 4 days and they have played 7 OT periods in their last 2 games. I took Cuse yesterday as they were still getting a good adrenaline rush but this is where the crash comes against a Louisville team that will pressure the heck out of the the Orange full court. Jonny Flynn has particularly logged big minutes the last 2 games and I expect him to experience some turnover trouble today. Lay the points.

4* MAC Championship Game BEST BET (ESPN 2) on Buffalo +2.5
Condensed writeup to get these out to you ASAP. Odds makers have the wrong team favored here. The Bulls did not play well down the home stretch but they have shown in this tournament that they truly are the best team in the league. Buffalo lost at home by 5 points back on Feb. 26 in the last regular season matchup and that brings the revenge factor into this one. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and we'll take the points here.

5* Big Ten Conference Tournament GOTY on Purdue -3.5
Condensed Writeup to get these out to you ASAP. The Boilermakers want this Big Ten Tourney championship bad after they had a disappointing regular season by their standards. This is a team which expected to contend more closely for the Big Ten regular season title but was slowed by injuries. The key here is that Purdue lost both regular season games to Illinois and the last one was an 18-point embarrassment. The Boilermakers will be out for blood in front a home court fan base here. Lay the points.

4* Major Big East Tourney BOMB on Syracuse +6.5
The Cuse just played a 6 OT thriller last night, and while the public will likely be looking for a letdown after such a game, I just can't see in happening. While a game like that has to produce some fatigue, these are 18-22 year old kids who have only played a 30-some game season with usually just 2 games a week. Young kids can bounce back the next day much better than NBA players do when they play back to back. I know this is the third game in 3 days for the Orange, but heart and a home court fan base will get them through. Cuse won by 13 in this matchup at home during the regular season and bring a 6-0 SU and ATS winning streak into this one. Cuse is now 21-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick since 1997 and 15-5 ATS in road games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997. Take the points!

3* SMASH (ESPN 2) on Duke -10
Duke is coming off a loss against UNC to end the season and gets a team that beat them by 6 points during the regular season. The Blue Devils will be out for blood in this one. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Another key factor here is that is line has earned public support on Boston College, which was the intent of the odds makers. We'll go against the grain and take the hungry Blue Devils.

5* Conference Tournament Blowout of the Year on Purdue -7
Off back-to-back losses to end the season, expect Purdue to steamroll the Nittany Lions in front of a basically home crowd. It was a disappointing season for the Boilers as injuries played a part in not achieving a conference title, but they can make up for it by winning this tournament. Purdue believes it is a Final Four caliber team and winning the Big Ten Tournament could have it looking at a No. 3 seed, which would only help it get there. Purdue lost by 11 points in its last game of the season against Michigan State and is 9-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 16.7 ppg in these spots. The Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Lay the number as Purdue earns a double digit victory!

3* SMASH on USC +1.5
I like the Trojans in their own backyard against the Bears tonight. USC opened as a 2-point favorite and the public has now bet the Bears into the favorite role. I feel the odds makers initial line favoring the Trojans was the right call and I will back them here. The key is USC's defense as Cal is just 1-7 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 66.6 to 73.0. USC beat Cal at home as a 5-point favorite earlier this season and with a largely home crowd at Staples Center, I like the Trojans to do it again. The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog and we'll take the points.

5* MWC Tournament GOTY on UNLV -4
The Rebels just lost at SDSU last game to end the regular season and I like them to bounce back strong here with home court on their side in the quarterfinal round of the MWC Tourney. What makes this play even stronger is that the Rebels lost at home by 2 points in the first meeting with SDSU this season to set up an double revenge situation. UNLV is 17-6 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent since 1997, 11-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons, and 13-4 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 73.3 to 62.9. Lay the points.

4* Major Conf. Tourney Afternoon Delight on Buffalo +1.5
Buffalo is the most talented team in this conference and I like the Bulls to win this one outright. The Bulls hit a little rough patch late in the season but with an NCAA Tourney berth on the line, they will be focused and ready to go. Kent is 1-7 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 69.6 to 76.0. Kent is also 2-8 ATS when playing away from home against a team with a winning record this season, losing in these spots by average of 10.0 ppg. This is a Buffalo team which nearly beat UConn. We'll take the most talented team in the MAC here. Buffalo outright.

5* 2009 Conference Tournament GOTY on Duquesne -2
Duquesne won at UMass 94-77 during the regular season and will blow this line out of the water tonight. UMass won its last 2 games, with its last one being an upset win over Rhode Island or this line would easily be 5 points. Duquesne is a team capable of making a run to the finals as it is one of the few conference teams which defeated Xavier and played the likes of Rhode Island and Temple very tough. The Rhode Island Rams beat the Dukes by 2 points late in conference play and they are waiting for Duquesne in the second round. The Dukes would like nothing more than to pay the Rams back and they won't let a disappointing UMass team stand in their way. With Duquesne ending the season on a sour note, with a poor performance against Dayton, I look for that loss to get the Dukes playing with an even larger sense of urgency and focus tonight. UMass is 1-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, losing by an average of 10.7 ppg in these spots. The Dukes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. This one is a major mismatch. Lay the points!

4* Major Blowout of the Tournament on Seton Hall -5
Seton Hall covered the number in 8 of its last 10 games and 12 of its last 16. You'll be hard pressed to find a team better against the number down the stretch. This is a confident team and one that believes it can pull off a couple upsets in this tournament. The Pirates certainly won't let USF stand in the way of round 2. Seton Hall is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in all matchups with the Bulls over the last 3 seasons, which includes a 15-point blowout win this year. The Bulls are a terrible 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 0-5 ATS in all in the last 5 meetings in this matchup. Lay the points!

5* WCC Tournament Championship Game BEST BET (ESPN)on St. Mary's +7
Plain and simple, the Gaels are getting too many points. St. Mary's lost by 7 points at Gonzaga in a game where Patty Mills did not play the second half. Then, it lost by just 2 points at home in a game where star guard Mills didn't play at all. Mills got his feet wet against a good Portland team last night. After making some first half mistakes, he looked pretty much like his old self in the second half and I expect him to be even better tonight. This one is on a neutral floor and with St. Mary's maybe needing this win to ensure that they will be dancing (plenty still have them on the bubble), I like the Gaels to give the Zags all they want and more. This is a better St. Mary's team now because of Mills' injury as it has forced other guys to step up in his absence. The Gaels are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, including 2-0 this season. The Gaels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Bet St. Mary's!

5* Sun Belt Conf. Tournament GOTY on Denver +7.5
Denver played Little Rock to a 9-point game during the regular season, but that LR team still had leading scorer Steven Moore still in the lineup. Moore has been booted of the team and you can expect an even better effort today from a Pioneers team vying for an automatic bid to the big dance. Denver has been one of the very best dogs in the country at 11-4 ATS as an underdog this season and even better on a neutral floor - 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog. Denver is also 11-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 61.9 to 58.1. The Trojans are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Denver covers this one easily with a great shot at winning outright.

3* SMASH on UCF -10
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. This is a big revenge spot for UCF who lost at E. Carolina 75-89 a month ago. That was UCF's first loss against the Pirates in 10 games dating back to 1997. I'll take UCF to bounce back strong against the Pirates today. ECU is 2-11 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, getting crushed by an average score of 60.8 to 75.8. Lay the number.

4* Major NCAAB Underdog Shocker on Wyoming +4.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Wyoming was crushed 57-86 at New Mexico a month ago and yet the Cowboys are just 4.5 point dogs? Exactly, New Mexico is way better on its home floor than it is on the road and Wyoming will be out for major revenge after taking a beating like that. Wyoming has won 9 of the last 10 at home in this matchup and 13 of 15 at home this season. The Home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Every line tells a story and this one tells us to take Wyoming.

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Iowa State -3.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. I absolutely love the Cyclones in this last home game spot as they are 12-6 at home on the season and teams tend to play at another level in their last home game. We certainly saw this with Texas Tech in its last home game when it crushed Kansas by 19. That win sets the Red Raiders up for a huge letdown here against a hungry ISU team that will have revenge on its mind after losing by 12 at Texas Tech a couple weeks back. Texas Tech is 0-10 in true road games this season. The Favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less. The Red Raiders are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or less. Pound the Cyclones!

3* SMASH on Tulane +25
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. First off, I don't think Tulane deserves to be catching this many points today no matter what, but especially not against a Memphis team with no reason to run up the score. Tulane comes in having won 3 in a row and will give the Tigers their best shot as every team in the conference attempts to do. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points after 8 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 42-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Tulane keeps this one within the number.

5* WCC Tournament GOTY on Pepperdine +5.5
I love Pepperdine catching this many points tonight. Pepperdine did lose its last 4 games, but 3 of those losses came to the league's 3 best teams (Portland, Gonzaga, St. Mary's). Its last loss of the season came to San Francisco by 8 points. That was a revenge game for the Dons which were defeated at home by Pepperdine earlier this season. With Pepperdine losing its last game against the Dons, now it holds the revenge angle again. First off, the Underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Dons are a poor 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Waves are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog and 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games following an ATS loss. The Waves are being undervalued here and we'll look to take advantage just like we did in a similar situation that saw Indiana State win outright as a dog last night.

4* Major Big West GOTM on CS Northridge +1.5
Too much is at stake for Northridge to lose this game as a loss could end up costing the Matadors a conference title and top seed in the conference tourney. Davis gave Northridge a scare at Northridge earlier this season so I don't expect the Matadors to be overlooking Davis here. It appears the public has gotten wind of Northridge missing a couple players, but this is a deep team and it won't matter tonight because of the interior advantage it has with Tremaine Townsend. The Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Matadors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Northridge wins this one outright.

5* Atlantic 10 GOTY on Xavier -10
This is a revenge game for Xavier, which lost to Dayton by 13 points on the road earlier this season. What makes this revenge spot even better is that it is Xavier's last home game and teams tend to really up their level of play in these spots. In addition, Xavier will be motivated by needing this one to keep their conference lead as Rhode Island is a half game back and Dayton is just a game back in the standings. Xavier is a perfect 11-0 at home versus Dayton since 1997 and embarrassed the Flyers by 26 as an 11-point favorite a season ago. Dayton has struggled on the road, losing its last 3. The Favorite is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings and the Flyers are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Xavier. The Musketeers are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall and we'll take them in this highly motivated spot tonight.

3* Conference Tourney Line Mistake on Indiana State +3
The entire world is on Drake tonight and that's just where the books want it. Drake beat ISU earlier in the season, but ISU won the final meeting by 12 points as it won 6 of its last 7 games. Drake has really crumbled down the stretch losing 10 of its final 14 games. Drake is 0-6 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons and 0-9 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. The Sycamores were not healthy for a good portion of the season and are just now hitting their stride. I think the books have the wrong team favored tonight.