Sports Picks & Predictions

5* NCAAB SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina +

South Carolina is being undervalued here off an ugly 34-point road loss to Kentucky. The Gamecocks will not only be motivated to bounce back, but they will have plenty of confidence against the Bulldogs. South Carolina defeated Georgia 67-50 at home back on Jan. 31 and in that win they held the Bulldogs to a mere 22.0% shooting.

Georgia isn't exactly coming into this game playing their best basketball. The Bulldogs have lost 3 of their last 5 after winning 5 straight, including a surprising 68-69 loss at home to Auburn as a 11-point favorite on Saturday. Georgia could be without a couple of key players in their rotation, as J.J. Frazier is expected to sit this one out and Juwan Parker is listed as questionable with an Achilles injury. While Parker didn't play in the first meeting against South Carolina, Frazier had a team-high 16 points.

Those that are wanting to play the revenge angle here, may want to reconsider. Home teams revenging a road loss to an opponent of 10 or more points, off a home loss by 3 points or less are 30-68 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% System in favor of the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina!

4* Clemson/Georgia Tech ACC Game of the Week on Georgie Tech -

We are seeing an overreaction here with Clemson coming in off a 21-point home win over Virginia Tech on Saturday, while the Yellow Jackets lost at home to Florida State 53-57 as a 4.5-point favorite. Both teams will be playing on just 1-day rest, but it's a much more difficult spot for the Tigers, who have to travel.

I look for Georgia Tech to be the more motivated team in this one. Not only will they be looking to bounce back from their loss to the Seminoles, but this is arguably their last legit chance to win at home, as their final two at the Pavilion are against the likes of UNC and Louisville. It's also a tough spot for Clemson, who will get a chance to host the Yellow Jackets later on, which could have them looking ahead to their huge showdown at Duke on Saturday.

Georgia Tech is a perfect 9-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come in having lost 4 of their last 5 games, while Clemson is 0-6 ATS during this same stretch when facing teams who are outrebounding their opponents by 7+ rebounds/game. These two trends add up to form a perfect 100% (15-0) system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!

5* Colonial Athletic Game of the Month on Drexel +

The Dragons are showing some great value here as a home underdog against Hofstra. Drexel comes in having won 6 straight. The Dragons are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when listed as an underdog and will be out for revenge from a 28-point loss at Hofstra back on Jan. 21.

The Pride were just upset at home 79-68 by Northeastern and continue to be overvalued by the books. Hofstra is just 1-5 ATS over their last 6 and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. I look for the Pride to struggle to bounce back on the road in this one.

Drexel is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Colonial and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games after covering the number in 3 or more straight games. The Pride on the other hand are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against teams who commit 14 or less turnovers/game . These trends combine to form a 79% (38-10) system in favor of the Dragons. Take Drexel!

3* Illinois/Wisconsin Big 10 Main Event on Illinois +

Wisconsin comes in having won 7 straight, but they are are just 3-3-1 ATS during this stretch. The Badgers did manage to cover as a 8-point favorite in a 65-55 win at Nebraska last time out, but have not covered consecutive games since late December.

Illinois on the other hand comes in on a 4-game winning streak of their own, which includes a 59-54 win at Michigan State as a 9.5-point underdog. The Illini are playing their best basketball of the season and simply should not be getting double-digits in this matchup. In fact, Illinois has just one loss all season by more than 14 points and that was a 16-point defeat at Ohio State, where the Buckeyes shot a ridiculous 60.0% from the field.

Wisconsin is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference home games, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after playing their previous game as a road favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after 4 or more consecutive wins. These trends combine to form a 87% (26-4) system in favor of the Illini. Take Illinois!

5* Big 10 Game of the Month on Maryland +

I believe we are getting some exceptional value here with the Terrapins as a road underdog against the Nittany Lions. Maryland comes in off a much-needed 68-66 home win over Indiana, but failed to cover the 6-point spread. It was the 6th straight game the Terrapins lost to the number and it has them undervalued here.

Penn State won't exactly being coming in with a ton of confidence following a 20-point loss at Ohio State and so far the Nittany Lions 3 conference wins have come against the likes of Rutgers, Minnesota and Nebraska, who all have a losing record inside Big 10 play. Keep in mind that Penn State lost at home 64-73 to Michigan as a 1.5-point favorite and 77-84 at home to Purdue as a 1-point favorite.

Maryland is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games played on a Saturday, while Penn State is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 off a blowout conference loss by 20+ points, 1-3 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 60 points or less in 3 straight games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games when listed as a favorite of 3-points or less. These trends add up to form a strong 77% (23-7) system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +

The Wildcats come into this contest having lost 5 straight, while the Sooners enter on a 5-game winning streak. Which I believe has Kansas State showing big time value as a home dog. The Wildcats have been without their leading scorer in Mason Foster for the last 3 games, as well as key reserve Malek Harris. Both are expected to return from suspension and I look for both players to lay everything on the line to make up for their teams struggles while they were sidelined.

Kansas State won in Norman earlier this season with Foster, stunning the Sooners 66-63 as a 12-point underdog. The Wildcats only two home losses have come during their recent skid, but both were close. They lost by just 6-points at home to West Virginia and 4-points last Saturday against Texas.

Oklahoma is just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games when they come in off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points, while Kansas State is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. These trends add up to form a strong 71% (50-20) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Kansas State!

4* Miss St/Missouri NCAAB Heavy Hitter on Mississippi St +2.5

The books have made a big mistake here, as the Bulldogs should not be an underdog in this matchup. Missouri has dropped 10-straight games, including each of their last 5 at home. The Tigers haven't exactly been competitive during this stretch and I look for them to struggle to keep it anywhere close enough to cover against Mississippi State team that will be extremely motivated coming off a heartbreaking 51-55 home loss to Alabama.

The Bulldogs may be just 11-13 overall and 4-7 inside SEC play, but they have quietly been playing much better of late, which includes a 73-67 home win over LSU and a 71-66 road win against the Volunteers. A big reason for Mississippi State's improved play is their effort defensively and that's where I think they are going to create some separation here, as Missouri comes in shooting just 38.1% from the field in conference play  The Bulldogs have held each of their last 4 opponents under 42%.

Missouri is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing their last game on the road, 8-23-3 ATS in their last 34 following a game where they covered the spread and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games against slow-down teams who average 53 or less shots/game. These trends combine to form a strong 75% (46-15) system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on East Carolina +

Temple comes into this game having won and covered in each of their last 6 games, which has them extremely overvalued here against the Pirates. The Owls have feasted on the bottom teams in the AAC on their way to a 9-3 conference record. Six of those wins have come against Tulane, UCF and USF, who are a combined 8-27 in league play. They also have a couple fortunate wins over Memphis (61-60) and UConn (57-53 OT).

While East Carolina is just 4-7 in the AAC, they come in off back-to-back impressive home wins over UCF (67-49) and Memphis (64-53). They also have an upset win over Cincinnati in their last 4 games and have covered the spread in each of their last 6 games. The Pirates only loss by more than spread listed here in their last 8 games is a 23-point defeat at SMU, who sits atop the conference at 11-2. Speaking of SMU, that's who Temple has on deck, which creates a huge lookahead spot for the Owls.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points who have held each of their last two opponents under 65 points, in a game involving two poor offensive teams (63-67 ppg) after 15+ games are 24-5 ATS since 1997. That's a 83% system in favor of the Pirates. Take East Carolina.

4* Baylor/Kansas Big 12 Vegas Insider on Baylor +

I think we are getting some great value here on Baylor. The Bears had won three straight prior to an ugly 65-74 home loss to Oklahoma State on Monday and I think a lot of that had to do with the spot.

Baylor was coming off a huge win at West Virginia and likely had their eyes set on their rematch against Kansas, who they lost to at home 55-56 back on Jan. 7. A game in which they led at the half and shot just 34.0% from the field.

Not only will this game be about revenge for the Bears, they will be out to make a statement after the way they lost on their home floor. Baylor is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 when they come in having covered 2 of their last 3 games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. These two trends combine to form a strong 86% (18-3) system in favor of the Bears. Take Baylor!

5* NCAAB Horizon League Game of the Month  on Valparaiso -

The Crusaders are showing some great value here as small home favorite against Green Bay. Valparaiso will be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 50-51 loss at the Phoenix on Jan. 23, plus with a win here they can take take over the top spot in the Horizon.

The Crusaders only two conference losses have both come on the road. Outside of that loss to Green Bay, they fell in overtime at Oakland. The key is that they are a perfect 6-0 at home in the Horizon and 11-1 overall for the year. The home fans will certainly be out in full force tonight in a game that could decide the regular season title on ESPN2.

Green Bay comes in having won 3 straight, but are a mere 7-21 ATS in their last 28 off 3-straight conference wins and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. Valparaiso is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games played on Friday.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who have led by 5 or more at the half in each of their last 3 contests, in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 ppg) after 15+ games are 36-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Crusaders. Take Valparaiso!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +

The 49ers are showing some great value here as a 8-point underdog against the Miners. Charlotte is a much stronger team than their 10-13 record overall and 3-7 mark inside C-USA would indicate. All but one of the 49ers losses this season has come by more than 8-points and that was a non-conference defeat to Miami (FL).

It's only a matter of time before the ball starts to bounce Charlotte's way and they start winning some of these close games, but in the mean time, they are a great team to back due to the perception that this isn't a very good team.

The 49ers are 8-2 ATS this season when listed as an underdog and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. UTEP on the other hand is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after playing on the road in their last contest. These trends combine to form a 79% (26-7) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Charlotte!

4* Ole Miss/Florida NCAAB Vegas Insider on Florida -

The Gators come into this game off a near upset of No. 1 Kentucky at home, losing 61-68. While Florida desperately wanted to be the team to end the Wildcats perfect season, I don't think they are going to hang their heads from that loss. If anything, that performance should install some confidence in this team and I look for a spirited effort here at home.

Florida will also be playing with some revenge here, as they lost a heartbreaker at Ole Miss 71-72 back on Jan. 24. The Gators had a 6-point lead at the half and ended up shooting 48% from the field, but were just 15-24 (62.5%) from the free throw line.

Ole Miss has been impressive on the road so far this season, but they have not fared well in recent trips to the O'Connell Center. Florida has won 7 straight home games over the Rebels and I look for them to make it 8 in a row with an easy cover. Take Florida!

5* Minn/Iowa No Limit Top Play on Minnesota +

The Hawkeyes are getting a little too much respect here at home against the Golden Gophers. Iowa has won back-to-back games in blowout fashion, winning at Michigan 72-54 and at home against Maryland 71-55. In both of those games the Hawkeyes shot over 62% from the field.

This is a much bigger game for Minnesota, who at 4-7 inside conference play, desperately need a win here to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. The Gophers lost by just 2-points at home to Iowa earlier this season and come in off back-to-back home wins. That sets up Minnesota in a profitable system, as road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are revenging a same season loss and off 2 or more home wins are 53-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons.

It's also worth noting that Minnesota is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Iowa City, along with the fact that Iowa is just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on Thursday. These trends combine to form a 73% (27-10) system in favor of the Golden Gophers. Take Minnesota!

4* Villanova/Providence Big East Vegas Insider on Providence +

The Friars were right in the thick of the Big East title race before losing 2 of 3 on the road, including a 69-78 loss at Xavier last time out. Prior that stretch Providence had opened up conference play 6-2 and I believe we are getting some big time value here with the Friars as a 4.5-point home dog.

Providence is likely in the NCAA Tournament, but need a marquee win to punch their ticket. The Friars are treating this as a must-win game and I think they have an excellent shot at pulling off the upset. Providence lost in 2-OT last year at home to the Wildcats and Villanova has had their struggles on the road. They lost 61-66 at Seton Hall and were blownout 58-78 at Georgetown. This is also a tough spot for the Wildcats, who have a huge road game at Butler on deck that could very well decide who wins the Big East title.

Providence is 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games when listed as an underdog, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games following a conference game and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after going over the total in each of their last two contests. Providence is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against top caliber teams who are outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game. These trends combine to form a 74% (48-17) system in favor of the Friars. Take Providence!

3* K-State/W Virginia Big 12 Main Event on W Virginia -9.5

It might seem like a bit of a risk to lay this many points at home on the Mountaineers, who come in off back-to-back ugly losses. West Virginia followed up 52-71 loss at Oklahoma with a 69-87 defeat at home.

For the books to list the Mountaineers as this big a favorite, given their recent form, they clearly have a bigger advantage than what most people would think. Kansas State has lost 4 straight, including a 59-65 loss at home to West Virginia. The Wildcats are in a major funk with leading scorer Marcus Foster sidelined due a suspension (expected to return Saturday against Oklahoma). The impact of Foster's absence couldn't have been more telling than Kansas State's 47-64 loss at Texas Tech, who is hands down the worst team in the Big 12.

While it will be the Wildcats who are playing with revenge from a home loss, they don't have the fire-power to compete with the Mountaineers, who I expect to play as inspired as they have all season given their last two blowout losses.

West Virginia is an impressive 20-5 ATS in their last 25 home games when listed as a favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. It's also worth noting that the Mountaineers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings against Kansas State and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. These trends combine to form a strong 78% (29-8) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia!

5* Syracuse/BC ACC Game of the Month on BC +

This isn't a game the Orange are going to be motivated for at all. Syracuse just recently imposed a self ban on any postseason tournament, leaving little to play for down the stretch. I do expect the Orange to continue play hard against some of the top teams, but getting up for the likes of Boston College will be a challenge, especially considering they recently defeated the Eagles at home 69-61, where they led by a score of 35-17 at the half.

Not only will Boston College be motivated to get their revenge on the Orange at home, but the Eagles come in desperate for a win after losing each of their last 4. While the Eagles are just 1-9 inside the ACC, that is largely due to a brutal schedule. Their 4 home games so far have come against Pitt, Virginia, Louisville and North Carolina. They lost all 4, but took the Panthers to overtime in a 60-61 defeat.

Boston College is 26-12 ATS in their last 38 home games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or fewer points/game at least 16 games into the season and a solid 41-20 ATS in their last 61 off a conference home loss. Syracuse is just 3-11 ATS as a favorite this season, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after failing to cover 4 or 5 out of their last 6 and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when they come in having committed 14 or less turnovers in 4 straight games. These trends combine to form a strong 72% (95-37) system in favor of the Eagles. Take Boston College!

3* Notre Dame/Clemson ACC Main Event on Clemson +

Most are going to be looking to back Notre Dame, expecting them to bounce back from that ugly 30-point loss to Duke on Saturday, but I think the Irish are going to find it extremely difficult to come away with a win at Clemson. The Tigers have quietly been playing some of their best basketball of the season of late.

While Clemson lost last time out 45-56 at Miami, that was a direct result of a miserable shooting performance (32.8%). Prior to that defeat, the Tigers had won 4 straight. I look for Clemson's defense to cause Notre Dame a lot of problems and let's not forget how fortunate the Irish are to be 4-2 on the road in conference play. Three of those wins came by 3-points or less.

Notre Dame is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 following a SU loss and 0-10 ATS in their last 10 off a road loss. Clemson on the other hand is 30-14 ATS in their last 44 home games off a conference loss by 10 or more points.

Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of the Irish. Road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game, who trailed in their previous game by 20 or more at the half are 12-31 ATS since 1997. That's a 72% system in favor of the Tigers. Take Clemson!

4* Oklahoma State/Baylor Big 12 Vegas Insider on Baylor -

Both of these teams come into this matchup off impressive wins this Saturday. Oklahoma State rallied from a double-digit first half deficit to stun Kansas 67-62, while Baylor went on the road and rolled West Virginia 87-69. It was the Bears third straight win by at least 18-points and I look for them to be the more focused and motivated team in this one.

The Cowboys invested everything they had into beating the Jayhawks and I just don't don't see them coming out with the energy needed to keep this one competitive against Baylor. One of the big keys here is that Baylor will be out for revenge from a 11-point loss at Oklahoma State back on Jan. 24. Keep in mind the Bears lost 63-73 at Oklahoma and later cruised to a 69-58 win at home over the Sooners. Baylor is 13-1 at home, while the Cowboys are just 5-5 on the road with three double-digit losses on the road inside conference play.

Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games against a strong team that's won 60% to 80% of their games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg after 15+ games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. These trends combine to form a 83% (29-6) system in favor of the Bears. Take Baylor!

4* Michigan/Indiana NCAAB Vegas Insider on Michigan +

This is a great spot to back Michigan, as we are getting an inflated line here on Indiana due to the Wolverines coming in off an ugly 54-72 home loss to the Hawkeyes. Prior to that defeat, Michigan had covered the number in each of their previous 4 games, including heartbreaking overtime losses to both Wisconsin and Michigan State.

The Wolverines were simply outsized by Iowa and just weren't emotionally invested in that game. I look for a completely different Michigan team to take the floor against the Hoosiers and that should lead to not only an easy cover, but a potential outright win. Indiana's just 1-3 in their last 4 games, with their only win coming against Rutgers at home by a mere 8-points.

The Wolverines are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games following a SU loss, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 following a double-digit loss at home and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after playing their previous game as an underdog. These trends combine to form a 72% (54-21) system in favor of the Wolverines. Take Michigan!

4* Horizon League Game of the Week on Wright State +

The Raiders are showing some big time value as a 9.5-point underdog against Cleveland State on Saturday. Wright State lost by just 5-points at home to the Vikings earlier this season and these two have quite a history of playing closely contested games. In the previous 6 meetings dating back to January of 2013, Wright State has won 4 and their two losses have come by 5-points or fewer.

Wright State is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning record at least 16 games into the season and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after 15+ games when going up against a team that's outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Adding to this is the fact that Cleveland State is just 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games against slow-down teams who are averaging 53 or fewer shots/game. These trends combine to form a 95% (20-1) system in favor of the Raiders. Take Wright State!

3* Kansas/Oklahoma St Big 12 Main Event on Oklahoma St +

The books are begging for action here on Kansas, but I'm not taking the bait. Oklahoma State is a strong 10-2 at home and I look for the Cowboys to put an end to the Jayhawks 5-game winning streak. Oklahoma State will also be out for revenge here, as they lost a tough one at Kansas 57-67 back in January.

The Cowboys won their last home game against the Jayhawks 72-65 as a -1 point favorite and the previous time before that lost a heartbreaker 67-68 in overtime as a 1-point dog. Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after allowing 65 points or less in 4 straight games, 30-19 ATS in their last 49 revenging a road loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after recording 9 or less assists in their previous contest. These trends combine to form a solid 69% (49-22) system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Oklahoma State!

5* Baylor/W Virginia Big 12 Game of the Month on W Virginia -

The Mountaineers are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Bears. Not hard to see why West Virginia is being undervalued here. The Mountaineers come in off a 19-point lost at Oklahoma (52-71), while Baylor comes in off back-to-back 20+ point blowout wins at home over Texas and TCU.

The key here is the fact the Mountaineers were without the services of Devin Williams against the Sooners. Williams leads the team in conference play with 13.4 ppg and is 2nd in the Big 12 with 9.1 rpg. He's expected to be back for this one and I look for the Mountaineers to lay a beating on the Bears. Baylor is just 1-3 in their last 4 on the road and 1-9 in their last 10 away from home against a ranked foe.

Not only will West Virginia be extremely motivated off that ugly loss to Oklahoma, but the Mountaineers will also be out for revenge. The Bears came into Morgantown and came away with a 88-75 road win as a 3-point dog last year. West Virginia is going to make sure that doesn't happen again.

Baylor is just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games off a conference win by 10 or more points, while the Mountaineers are 25-15 ATS in their last 40 home games when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. These add up to form a solid 65% (45-24) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia!

4* Cincinnati/SMU AAC Game of the Week on SMU -

The Mustangs come in having won 8 straight and have a big game against AAC leading Tulsa on Saturday, but I'm not expecting SMU to look past Cincinnati. The Bearcats handed SMU their last loss in a 56-50 home win back on Jan. 3. Not only will the Mustangs be playing with revenge, but I think we are getting some great value here because of it.

SMU is 13-1 at home and are a perfect 5-0 at home inside conference play. The impressive thing with the Mustangs undefeated record at home in the AAC, is the fact that all 5 of those wins have come by at least 14 points.

Cincinnati continues to play without head coach Mick Cronin, who is dealing with a health issue and come in off an ugly 46-50 loss at East Carolina as a 10.5-point favorite. The defeat dropped the Bearcats to just 1-3 on the road in the ACC, with their only win coming against bottom feeder UCF.

Cincinnati is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after allowing 60 points or less in 3 straight games. SMU is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 conference home games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.

We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Bearcats. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming in off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more points are just 13-39 ATS since 1997. That's a 75% system in favor of the Mustangs. Bet SMU!

3* Iowa/Michigan Big Ten Main Event on Iowa -

This is a great spot to back the Hawkeyes, who are going to come out extremely motivated after losing their last 3. The key thing to keep in mind is that two of those losses came against Wisconsin and the other came at Purdue (63-67) where they lost leading scorer Aaron White early in the first half. White is back healthy and I look for the Hawkeyes to go into Ann Arbor and come away with a victory.

This line really says it all. Michigan has covered each of their last 4, while Iowa has failed to cover 3 straight, yet the Hawkeyes are the ones listed as the favorite. The Wolverines continue to play without both Derrick Walton Jr. and Caris LeVert and are simply not that great of a team. Just looking at the numbers, Iowa should have the edge on the offensive boards and free throw line, which should be more than enough to allow them to pull away for the win.

Hawkeyes are 16-7 ATS after 15+ games against teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. These trends combine to form a solid 75% (27-9) system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

3* Oklahoma St/Texas Big 12 Main Event on Texas -

This is a great spot to back the Longhorns at home. Texas is going to come out extremely motivated as they look to snap a 3-game losing streak, which includes an ugly 23-point loss at Baylor last time out. The Longhorns will also be out for revenge from a 11-point loss at Oklahoma State earlier this season.

While Texas lost 62-75 to Kansas in their last home game, prior to that they rolled over West Virginia 77-50 as a 3-point favorite. Not only are the Longhorns primed for a big time performance at home, Oklahoma State has struggled on the road. The Cowboys last 3 conference road games have resulted in a 10-point loss at Kansas State, 17-point loss at Oklahoma and 10-point loss at Kansas.

Oklahoma State is 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 road games versus a team with a winning home record and a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games when listed as an underdog of 6-points or less. Texas on the other hand is a strong 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss by more than 20 points. These trends combine to form a 72% (48-19) system in favor of the Longhorns. Take Texas!

4* BC/Notre Dame ACC Game of the Week on Boston College +

The perception will be that Notre Dame is going to bounce back after a tough 72-76 road loss at Pittsburgh, but I look for the Fighting Irish to struggle to put away the Eagles. Notre Dame has routinely played in close games. Out of their 9 conference games, 8 have been decided by 7-points or less.

Not only are the Irish struggling to put teams away, they find themselves in a big letdown spot. Notre Dame is coming off a brutal 3-game stretch that had them go on the road against NC State, host Duke and they go back on the road against Pitt. On top of that, they have a huge game on the road against Duke on deck Saturday. Boston College is just 1-7 inside conference play, but have been competitive in a number of those losses and I look for them to be the more motivated team in this one.

Notre Dame is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games off a conference loss and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 off a conference road loss. The Fighting Irish are also just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when listed as a home favorite and 4-17 ATS in their last 21 home games when playing a team with a losing record after 15 or more games into the season. These trends combine to form a 83% (50-10) system in favor of the Eagles. Take Boston College!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on George Mason +

The Patriots are showing some great value here as a double-digit home dog. VCU is coming off a 55-64 home loss to Richmond and in the process lost arguably their most important player in senior Briante Weber, who is the catalyst to their press defense that causes opposing teams so much trouble. Weber was leading the country with 3.9 steals per game.

It's going to take some time for the Rams to adjust without Weber and I think it's asking too much for them to win here by double-digits. George Mason has been a tough out at home. They have wins over both LaSalle and Saint Louis, while keeping it close against both UMass (62-66) and Davidson (73-80). VCU on the other hand has won their last 3 conference road games by a combined 13 points.

The Rams are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 off an upset loss as a favorite and just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 16-4 ATS in their last 20 after shooting 33% or worse from the field in their last game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Rams. Road favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who are coming off an upset loss as a home favorite are 7-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Patriots. Take George Mason!

4* NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Marquette +

Marquette is showing some great value here as a massive road dog against Villanova. The Golden Eagles have been a lot more competitive inside the Big East than their 2-7 record would indicate. Marquette's 7 losses in conference play have come by an average of just 5.7 ppg and not one of them have been by more than 10-points.

Despite being in the midst of a 5-game losing streak, the Golden Eagles have shown no signs of giving up on their season and are not only capable of covering this large number, but pulling off the big upset. It's also worth noting that Villanova is primed for a letdown. The Wildcats come in off two blowout wins over Creighton and DePaul and have a huge revenge game on deck at home against Georgetown on Saturday (lost by 20-points at Georgetown on Jan. 19).

Marquette is 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games when listed as an underdog of 10 or more points, 8-2 ATS as an underdog this season, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games after playing 3 or more straight at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their 6 road games against a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 79% (45-12) system in favor of the Golden Eagles. Take Marquette!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Georgia Tech +

The Yellow Jackets are showing some great value here as a massive road dog against the Blue Devils. This the definition of a trap game for Duke, who comes in off a upset 69-63 win at Virginia and has a big home game against Notre Dame on deck, who they lost to recently in the final seconds 73-77.

Georgia Tech has gone a disappointing 1-8 in conference play, but could easily be sitting with a much better record inside the ACC. Out of the 8 conferences losses the Yellow Jackets have suffered, 7 have come by 7-points or less, including 4 by 3-points or fewer. They showed just what they are capable of in a 70-50 road win at Miami as a 9.5-point underdog back on Jan. 28.

Georgia Tech is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after losing 4 of their last 5 games.  Yellow Jackets are also 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 on the road. Duke is 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 against the ACC, 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing record. These trends combine to form a 80% (56-14) system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!

4* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +

I believe we are getting exceptional value here with the Scarlet Knights as a double-digit road dog against the Fighting Illini. Illinois was able to hold on for a 60-58 home win over Penn State last time out, despite missing leading scorer Rayvonte Rice and fellow starter Aaron Crosby, who have both been suspended indefinitely.

The fact that the Illini were able to hold on for a win, combined with the Scarlet Knights coming in having lost 6 straight, has Illinois extremely overvalued. Not only does Rutgers have an excellent shot at covering this large spread, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright.

The Scarlet Knights are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games after playing their previous game as an underdog, while Illinois is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after 3 or more consecutive conference games. Fighting Illinois are also just 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 games played on a Tuesday and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home favorites after 15 or more games following a close win by 3-points or less, that have a +8 or more ppg differential against an opponent with a -3.5 to -8 ppg differential are just 10-32 ATS since 1997. That's a 76% system in favor of the Scarlet Knights. Take Rutgers!

5* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee -

This is simply not a good matchup for Mississippi State, who already lost at home 47-61 to Tennessee back on Jan. 7. In that matchup the Bulldogs shot just 30.6% from the field and were outrebounded 44-28. I look for the Volunteers defense and rebounding to make it extremely difficult for Mississippi State to keep this one competitive. 

Each of the Bulldogs last two trips to Thompson-Boling Arena have resulted in losses by at least 15 points. Tennessee is 9-2 at home this season. While they failed to cover as 8.5-point favorites last time out in a 71-63 win over Auburn at home, the Volunteers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite.

Mississippi State on the other hand is 11-24 ATS in their last 36 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 off a SU win. The Bulldogs are also just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games against teams who commit 14 or less turnovers/game, while Tennessee is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 against teams who are outrebounding opponents by 4+ rebounds/game. These trends combine to form a 70% (78-34) system in favor of the Volunteers. Take Tennessee!

4* UConn/Houston NCAAB Vegas Insider on UConn -

The Huskies have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games, which I believe has them extremely undervalued here against a bad Houston team. Connecticut also comes in off an uguly 58-70 road loss at Cincinnati, which is going to have them coming out extremely motivated to get back in the win Column.

Houston snapped a 8-game with a 59-48 win over Rice in a rare non-conference game. The Cougars are still a dismal 0-8 inside the American Athletic, where they are getting outscored by an average of 12.3 ppg.

The Huskies are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 off a conference loss and 13-2 ATS in their last 15 after playing their previous game as an underdog, while Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a solid 75% (36-12) system in favor of the Huskies. Take Connecticut!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Rhode Island -

While Rhode Island comes in having won 3 straight, they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. I believe that poor ATS run has the Rams showing some great value here as a small home favorite. Rhode Island is 9-1 at home this season with the only loss coming against VCU by a mere 5-points.

George Washington just got rolled 48-72 at VCU in their last game and I look for the Colonials to struggle to bounce back from such a poor performance. George Washington is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 conference games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on Saturday and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Colonials. Road underdogs who have gone under the total by 12+ points in each of their last two games are just 46-81 ATS since 1997 in a game involving two strong teams (60% to 80%).  That's a 64% long-term system in favor of the Rams. Take Rhode Island!

4* Georgia/S Carolina NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on South Carolina -

While the Gamecocks have lost 4 straight and are just 1-6 inside SEC play, I really like South Carolina in this spot. The Gamecocks are a much better team than their record would indicate. Keep in mind this a team that knocked off Iowa State (64-60), Oklahoma State (75-49) and Clemson (68-45) in non-conference play.

Georgia is 5-2 in the SEC with a 2-1 record on the road, but the thing you have to keep in mind is that both of those road win came against bottom feeders Mississippi St and Vanderbilt, who unlike South Carolina are as bad as their records would indicate.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Favorites who have failed to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more straight games are 76-37 ATS since 1997. That's a strong 67% system in favor of the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina!

5* Missouri Valley Game of the Year on Evansville -

Drake is one of the worst teams in the country, as they come in at 5-16 overall and just 2-7 inside the MVC. I believe this is a perfect spot to go against the Bulldogs as a relatively small home underdog, as Drake comes in off a 69-57 win at Bradley.

Evansville comes in having won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. The Purple Aces have also won three straight on the road inside conference play and are 6-2 ATS on the road this season. I look for Evansville to carry over that momentum and cruise to any easy win here against a far inferior Drake team.

The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS this season when playing on Saturday, losing by an average score of 57.4 to 72.6 (15.2 ppg). Evansville on the other hand is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when they come in having won 3 of their last 4, 14-4 ATS in their last 18 after playing two straight games as a favorite and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games off a home win by 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 83% (44-9) system in favor of the Purple Aces. Take Evansville!

3* Kent State/Buffalo Late Night ATS Bailout on Buffalo -

This is a great spot to back the Bulls at home against the Golden Flashes. Kent State comes in having gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games, while Buffalo is just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS during their last 6. This has the Golden Flashes extremely overvalued.

Kent State's only played two road games during their recent surge and both came against two of the worst teams in the MAC in Northern Illinois and Ball State. Buffalo comes in off an impressive 77-71 home win over Western Michigan, improving to 7-0 at home on the season. This will be the Golden Flashes first real road test since going to Kansas back on Dec. 30 and I look for them to struggle to keep this one competitive.

Buffalo is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games when listed as a pick'em or favorite and 18-7 in their last 25 home games off a win by 6 points or less. The Bulls are also a solid 45-26 (63%) in their last 71 when playing a home game after a home game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Favorites who have failed to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games against an opponent that has successfully covered in 4 or more straight games are 76-37 ATS since 1997. That's a 67% system in favor of the Bulls. Take Buffalo!

4* Cal/Washington St Late Night Vegas Insider on Cal +

Cal has endured a disappointing 1-6 start to conference play, but I think this is a great spot for the Golden Bears to snap their 6-game losing streak. Cal will be out for revenge against the Cougars, who they lost to at home 66-69 back on Jan. 4.

One of the big keys here is that Washington State is also coming in to this contest in a bit of a slump. The Cougars have dropped 3 straight and I believe the books are begging for action here on Washington State as a mere 3-point home favorite. Keep in mind that Cal had won 3 straight in the series prior to that loss earlier this month, they are also 2-2 in their last 4 visits to Washington State, with their largest defeat coming by just 4-points.

Cal is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 road games off 2 straight conference losses, while Washington State is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 off a road loss and 0-6 in this spot when coming off a road loss by 20 or more points. The Cougars are also just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after scoring 60 or less and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 80+. These trends combine to form a dynamite 78% (61-17) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

3* Oregon/Arizona Late Night ATS Bailout on Oregon +

I think we are getting some great value here with Oregon as a massive road dog against the Wildcats. I know the Ducks lost by 18-points at home earlier this season to Arizona, but they only trailed by 5-points at the half and shot season-worst 35.7% from the field.

This is a much better Oregon team than what the books are indicating, as they are simply being way undervalued due to going just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. Keep in mind that Oregon was only a 6.5-point underdog at home to Arizona in that first meeting, which means at worst they should be getting around 12.5 points.

One thing you have to like here is that Oregon has had their fair share of success on the road against the Wildcats. In the Ducks last 8 trips to Arizona, they have won 3 of those outright. Only 2 of their 5 losses have come by double-digits and none by more than the spread listed here.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Teams that have won 18 or more of their last 20 games, who are playing their 3rd game in a week are 36-71 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Ducks. Take Oregon!

4* ACC Game of the Week on Georgia Tech +

We are getting some big time value on Georgia Tech as a near double-digit road dog against the Hurricanes. This is largely due to the fact that the Yellow Jackets are a conference worst 0-7 in ACC play, while Miami is ranked inside the Top 25 and sitting near the top of the standings.

The thing that you have to keep in mind is that while Georgia Tech has not won a single conference game, they have been extremely competitive. The Yellow Jackets only loss by more than 10-points was on the road against undefeated Virginia. Each of their other 6 conference losses have all come by 7-points or less, including a 3-point loss to Notre Dame and 1-point defeat to Syracuse.

Miami does have an impressive 16-point win over Duke on their resume, but that's their only conference win by more than 5 points. This is also a difficult spot for the Hurricanes, who are coming off a huge road win over Syracuse and have an even bigger showdown against rival Florida State on deck Saturday.

Yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games at least 15+ games into the season against team who commit 14 or fewer turnovers/game and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when playing just their 3rd game in a week. Miami has failed to cover as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points in both spots previously this season and are 0-3 ATS over the last 3 years off back-to-back wins by 6-points or less. These trends combine to form a 88% (23-3) system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!

4* Tulsa/Tulane AAC Game of the Week on Tulsa -

This is a great spot to fade Tulane, as the Green Wave come in off a heartbreaking 55-57 loss at home to Memphis on Saturday. Tulane ended up covering as 5.5-point underdogs, but were fortunate to do so after trailing by 9 with less than 10 minutes to play. Prior to that loss the Green Wave got rolled at home 52-66 by SMU.

Tulsa had an opposite result in their last game, as they failed to cover the 9.5-point spread in a 66-64 win at East Carolina. I look for that near loss to serve as motivation for the Golden Hurricane, who have won 9 straight.

Outside of their surprising upset at Memphis back on Jan. 3, Tulane's three other conference wins have come against bottom feeders East Carolina, USF and Houston. They needed overtime to escape with a 56-51 win at USF and barely scraped by with a 3-point victory against the Cougars. I just don't think the Green Wave are anywhere close to as good as this line would indicate, as I think Tulsa will have no problem winning here by double-digits.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Tulane. Home underdogs that have played 3 straight games where both teams failed to surpass 70 points are 12-43 ATS over the last 5 years against opponents who scored 30 points or less in the 1st half of each of their last 2 games. That's a strong 78% system in favor of the Golden Hurricane. Take Tulsa!

4* Texas/Iowa State NCAAB Vegas Insider on Iowa State -

This is a great spot to back the Cyclones at home as a relatively small favorite. Both teams come in off disappointing losses on Saturday, Iowa State fell 73-78 as a 10-point road favorite at Texas Tech, while Texas lost 62-75 as a 4-point home favorite to rival Kansas.

I look for the Cyclones to have the much easier time bouncing back, especially with this game being played at home, where Iowa State is a perfect 10-0 on the season, which includes wins over Oklahoma State, Kansas and Kansas State inside conference play.

It's also important to note that the home team has dominated this series, winning 9 of the last 10 meetings. Each of the Longhorns last two trips to Hilton Coliseum have not ended well, losing 62-82 in 2013 and 76-85 last season. Texas is 2-1 on the road in the Big 12, but they lost 58-69 at Oklahoma State and their two wins came against lowly Texas Tech and TCU.

The Longhorns are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games against teams who average 12 or fewer turnovers a game at least 15+ games into the season and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 versus teams that attempt 21 or more 3-point shots/game. Iowa State on the other hand is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games as a favorites of 6 points or less and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 versus teams that have won 60% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a strong 79% (48-13) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Creighton +

The Bluejays continue to be undervalued due to the fact they are still without a win in conference play at 0-7. While their season may be lost, I expect Creighton to continue to give everything they have to get that first Big East win. The Bluejays had little trouble covering last time out, as they lost 61-64 at Butler as a 9-point underdog.

I'm not by any means expecting Creighton to win on the road at Villanova, but they should have no problem covering the massive spread that's been placed on this matchup. The Wildcats are coming in off a crushing 58-78 loss at Georgetown that has to have them second-guessing themselves a little bit.

Creighton is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons against teams who average 16 or more assists/game, while the Wildcats are just 18-39 ATS in their last 57 after playing 2 straight on the road.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of Villanova. Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points that beat the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last game against an opponent that has gone under the total by 24 or more combined points in their last 3 games are 7-27 ATS since 1997. That's a 79% system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton!

4* American Athletic Game of the Week on Memphis -

The fact that Memphis is favored by 4 says a lot, as the Tigers lost at home to Tulane 66-74 back on Jan. 3. The books have made it pretty clear that loss was a fluke and that Memphis will get their revenge on the road against the Green Wave. Prior to that loss to Tulane, the Tigers had won 22 straight in the series.

Not only is Memphis going to come into this game out for revenge, they are going to be extremely motivated to bounce back from an ugly 55-73 defeat at Tulsa last time out. The key here is that the Tigers have thrived in this situation. Memphis is 52-5 in their last 57 games off a SU loss, which includes a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in their last 7 off a loss by 10 or more points. The Tigers are also 20-7-1 ATS in their 28 when playing with same-season revenge.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off a loss by 10 or more points against an opponent that scored 55 or less in their last game are 45-18 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Tigers! Take Memphis!

5* NCAAB ATS No Brainer Game of the Month on Middle Tenn -

This is a great price to back the Blue Raiders at home against a Charlotte team that has really been struggling to get anything going. The 49ers have lost two straight and 6 of their last 8 overall, which has coincided with the absence of head coach Alan Major, who had to take an indefinite leave due to health reasons.

While Charlotte is in the midst of a slump, Middle Tennessee has won 4 of their last 5, including an impressive 68-58 home win over Old Dominion as a 2-point dog in their last contest. The Blue Raiders improved to 8-2 SU and 6-2 ATS at home. Middle Tennessee's strong play at home and the 49ers without a sense of direction, is a big reason why I think we are getting such great value here with the Blue Raiders laying just 3-points. It's also worth noting that Middle Tennessee won by 22 points (71-49) at Charlotte last season.

49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games, while the Blue Raiders are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers/game and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games when playing a team with a losing record after 15 or more games. These trends combine to form a 90% (27-3) system in favor of the Blue Raiders. Take Middle Tennessee!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Eastern Michigan +

The Eagles are showing some great value here as a 6-point underdog against in-state rival Central Michigan. Eastern Michigan has won 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 overall in the series and are simply being undervalued here due to having failed to cover the spread in each of their last 5 games.

This is a classic example of strength against strength, as the Chippewas come in 3rd in the country in scoring at 85.1 ppg, while Eastern Michigan is 30th in scoring defense allowing just 59.3 ppg. I'm a defensive guy and I look for the Eagles intensity on that side of the ball to not only allow them to stay close enough to cover, but win this game outright. The key here is that Central Michigan's defense is giving up 75.4 ppg inside MAC play, so Eastern Michigan is going to be able to put up points.

The Eagles are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 after scoring 65 or less in 3 straight games, while the Chippewas are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 against teams that are shooting 42% or worse from the field and 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or less points/game after 15+ games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 80% (40-10) system in favor of the Eagles. Take Eastern Michigan!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Portland State +

We are getting some great value here with the Vikings as a decently big road dog against Weber State. Portland State comes in off a solid 85-73 home win over Idaho, while the Wildcats were dealt a 60-70 loss at Southern Utah.

One of things that I like about Portland State is they have played well on the road with a 82-75 win at North Dakota and a mere 5-point loss to Northern Colorado. Weber State on the other hand barely escaped with a 3-point win at home over a horrible Montana State team.

Couple other key factors here is that the Wildcats are not a strong offensive team, which is going to make it hard on them to turn this into a blowout. Weber State only overages 68.0 ppg, compared to Portland State at 73.2 ppg. Adding to this is the fact that the Vikings come in shooting the ball extremely well, as they have connected on at least 45% of their attempts in each of their last 4 games. I also like the fact that Portland State takes great care of the basketball. The Vikings have committed 9 or fewer turnovers in 5 of their last 7 games.

We also see that Portland State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after playing 2 straight at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing their last game as a favorite. Adding to this is a strong system, as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have scored 80 or more in 3 straight games are 32-10 ATS since 1997 in a matchup involving two average teams (+/- 3.5 ppg differential). That's a 76% system in favor of the Vikings. Take Portland State!

5* SEC Game of the Month on Alabama +

I'll gladly take the points in this one, as I think Alabama has an excellent shot at winning this game outright. The Crimson Tide are simply being undervalued here due to the fact that they have lost their last two, which included an ugly 22-point home loss to Kentucky in their last game.

Losing to Kentucky is nothing to worry about and the other loss was a mere 2-point defeat at South Carolina. Arkansas isn't exactly coming in a positive note either, as the Razorbacks have also dropped their last two. However, Arkansas' two losses have come at Tennessee (69-74) and at home to Ole Miss (82-96). Keep in mind that Alabama won at Tennessee earlier in conference play 56-38.

The Crimson Tide are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games off a home loss and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after going UNDER the total in their last game. Arkansas on the other hand is a mere 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after giving up more than 90 points in their last game. These trends combine to form a 72% (55-21) system in favor of the Crimson Tide. Take Alabama!

5* Big East Game of the Month on Creighton +

The Bluejays are showing some great value here as a double-digit underdog against the Bulldogs. Creighton is being way undervalued by the books right now, due to the fact that they are 0-6 inside conference play and are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 lined games.

There's no question that the Bluejays are going to come out motivated to get their first conference win, while Butler could be in for a bit of a letdown. The Bulldogs are coming off two closely contested games against Seton Hall and Georgetown, which had them win by 4 over Seton Hall and lose by 2 at Georgetown. It's going to be hard for Butler to give Creighton their full attention with how poorly they have played of late.

Road underdogs of 10 or more points that have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more combine points in their last 7 games are 57-25 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a solid 70% system backing a play on the Bluejays. We also see a strong system suggesting a fade of Butler. Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who have gone over the total by 30 or more points in their last 3 games against an opponent that has gone under the total by 42 or more points in their last 7 are just 15-40 ATS since 1997. That's another 73% system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton!

3* Memphis/Tulsa AAC Main Event on Tulsa -

The Golden Hurricane are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Tigers. Tulsa comes in having won 7 straight, which includes a perfect 5-0 start to AAC play. The Golden Hurricane have made easy work of their two conference opponents at home, knocking off Houston 72-54 and Connecticut 66-58.

Memphis is simply being overvalued due to a couple of impressive home wins and a easy win on the road against a bad Houston team. The key here is that the Tigers have not played well away from home against quality competition. They lost by 15 to Wichita State and 24 to Baylor on a neutral site and got rolled at SMU by 14 points.

Tulsa is 19-4 ATS in their last 23 conference games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off 4 more consecutive wins and a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 off a conference win by 10 or more points. Memphis on the other hand is 5-14 ATS in their last 19 after covering 3 of their last 4, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 84% (64-12) system in favor of the Golden Hurricane. Take Tulsa!

4* Buffalo/C Michigan MAC Game of the Week on Buffalo +

The Chippewas are getting way too much respect here due to their perfect 9-0 home record. Central Michigan has played an extremely easy schedule, especially on their home floor. The Chippewas lone conference win at home has come against Miami (OH), who is 6-11 on the season. Their other 8 home wins all came in non-conference play against the likes of Alma, Youngstown St, Maine, Ark-Pine Bluff, Grand Canyon, SIU Edwardsville, Concordia, and Central Penn.

Buffalo's only conference loss has come on the road against Western Michigan, who sits on top the MAC West at 3-1 and are 12-5 overall. The big key here is that the Bulls have the offensive fire-power to keep pace with the Chippewas up-tempo attack and are strong enough defensively to keep Central Michigan from going off.

The Bulls are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games against poor defensive teams that are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers/game, 17-4 ATS in their last 21 when they come in having won 2 out of their last 3, 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games after scoring 75+ in each of their last 2 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Central Michigan on the other hand is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting. These trends combine to form a 79% (77-20) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Buffalo!

3* Tennessee/S Carolina SEC Main Event on S Carolina -

The Gamecocks are showing some solid value here as a small home favorite against the Volunteers. South Carolina is being way undervalued right now, due to the fact they are just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS inside conference play. The thing to keep in mind is that two of those losses came on the road and the other was at home against the Gators.

Tennessee on the other hand is getting a little too much respect from their 3-1 start to SEC play. While the Volunteers are 2-0 on the road, those two wins have come against the two worst teams in the conference in Mississippi State and Missouri. Tennessee's only other win away from home is a 64-57 victory against Santa Clara on a neutral site. They lost by 16 to VCU, 15 to Kansas and 8 to Marquette all at a neutral site and lost by 11 at NC State in their only other road games. South Carolina's only two home losses have come against the likes of Baylor and Florida by a combined 8-points.

The Gamecocks have a 75-49 home win over Oklahoma State and 68-45 win against Clemson, not to mention and impressive non-conference win over Iowa State on a neutral site. To say South Carolina will be motivated for this game is a major understatement, as they have lost 14 straight to the Volunteers. Thing to keep in mind is that only once during that stretch were the Gamecocks favored and that was by a mere 2-points. For them to be laying 5.5, really says a lot as the public is going to be all over the Volunteers.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Tennessee. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have gone under the total by more than 12 points in each of their last two games, in a game involving two quality teams that have won 60% to 80% of their games are 26-61 ATS since 1997. That's a 70% system in favor of the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina!

4* Iowa/Wisconsin Big Ten Game of the Week on Iowa +

Iowa is showing some great value here as a decently sized road dog against the Badgers. The Hawkeyes come in off a 76-67 home win over Ohio State, improving to 4-1 inside conference play. Iowa has won each of their last 3 true road games outright as an underdog. They knocked off North Carolina 60-55 as a 7.5-point dog, Ohio State 71-65 as a 7-point dog and Minnesota 77-75 as a 3-point dog. Adding to this is that Iowa is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.

The Badgers come in off an easy 70-55 home win over Nebraska, but are still just two games removed from their 62-67 upset loss at Rutgers as a 15-point favorite. Wisconsin has also been overvalued quite a bit of late, as they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games. It's also worth noting that the Badgers are still without the services of senior point guard Traevon Jackson.

The biggest key here is that Iowa has a history of playing Wisconsin tough. While the Badgers have won each of the last 3 meetings, those 3 wins have come by a combined 13 points, with their largest win by a mere 5-points. You have to go all the way back to 2010 to find the last time Wisconsin beat Iowa by more than 8 points. In fact, the Hawkeyes are a dominant 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Badgers.

Wisconsin is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams that have won 60% to 80% of their games on the season, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of Wisconsin. Home favorites who are an average 3PT shooting team (32%-36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32%-36.5%), dominant rebounding team (+6 or more reb/game) against a good rebounding team (+3 to +6 reb/game) are just 37-75 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Pittsburgh +

Duke is being overvalued here off that impressive 62-52 win at Louisville on Saturday. Prior to that victory the Blue Devils had failed to cover each of their previous 3 and were a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8. No question Duke is the better team in this matchup, but they are prime for a letdown after that loss and 15-points is a lot to cover against a quality team like Pitt inside conference play.

The Panthers come in off back-to-back wins and are a respectable 13-5 overall, but are way undervalued due to the fact that they have gone a miserable 4-11 ATS on the season, including a 1-7 ATS stretch over their last 8 lined games.

Pitt is 33-17 ATS in their last 50 road games when listed as an underdog. Duke is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 conference matchups and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games played on Monday.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are coming off 3 straight games that finished OVER the total, who are a strong defensive team, allowing 64 or less points/game are 39-16 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Panthers. Take Pittsburgh!

4* NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Virginia Tech +22.5

Virginia Tech is showing great value here as a massive underdog against the Tar Heels. The Hokies aren't going to just lay down here, as they are going to be motivated to get that first conference win. North Carolina on the other hand could have trouble getting motivated for this one. The Tar Heels are coming off a big road game against in-state rival NC State.

Tar Heels are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games when they come in having won 8 or more 10 games, while  Virginia Tech is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games against teams who average 40 or rebounds/game. 

Adding this is a strong system in play favoring the Hokies. Underdogs of 20 or more points that are averaging 14.5 or fewer turnovers/game against a poor pressure defense that (14.5 turnovers/games) after 15+ games are 59-24 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Hokies. Take Virginia Tech!

5* Ohio Valley Game of the Year on Jacksonville State +

The Gamecocks are showing big time value here as a double-digit dog against the Skyhawks. Jacksonville State is being way undervalued due to a couple of ugly home losses the last two times out against Murray State and SE Missouri State.

Jacksonville State has won each of the last 4 meetings in the series. While both teams return 3 starters from last year, one of those starters that Tenn-Martin returned is senior forward Myles Taylor, who is out with a knee injury. Taylor had 12 points and 6 rebounds in last year's 65-70 loss at Jacksonville State. 

The Gamecocks have thrived in the roll of the underdog, especially on the road. Jacksonville State is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games when listed as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Gamecocks are also 27-10 ATS in their last 37 road games when they come in having failed to cover 2 of their last 3 and 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games after playing their last 2 at home. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Skyhawks. Home favorites off an upset conference win against an opponent of 2 straight home losses of 10 or more points are just 14-38 ATS since 1997. That's a 73% system in favor of the Gamecocks. Take Jacksonville State!

4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS No Brainer on St Louis +

The Billikens are showing some exceptional value here as a massive road dog against Dayton. The Flyers are being way overvalued by the books right now due to the fact that they have won 7 straight overall and covered each of their last 4 and 5 of their last 6. 

St Louis will be coming into this contest with a lot of confidence after an impressive 78-69 home win over Duquesne last time out. The Billikens will be out to prove themselves against one of the top teams in the A-10. The Flyers on the other hand could have a difficult time getting up for this game, due to their recent success and the fact that they have a huge road game against Davidson on deck Tuesday. 

Dayton is 0-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of each of their last 2 games and 14-29 ATS in their last 43 games versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shot attempts per game. It's also worth noting that St Louis is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after 3 or more consecutive games that finished OVER the total. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 10 or more points off 2 or more consecutive overs, who are a poor offensive team, averaging 64 or less points per game are 178-110 ATS since 1997. That's a 62% long-term system in favor of the Billikens. Take St Louis!

3* N Illinois/E Michigan MAC Game of the Week on N Illinois +

The Huskies are showing some great value here as a decent sized road dog against the Eagles. While Northern Illinois will likely be without the services of Darrell Bowie for a fourth straight game (questionable), they are more than capable of keeping it close against Eastern Michigan and potentially winning this game outright. 

The Eagles aren't exactly playing their best basketball right now. Eastern Michigan has yet to win inside the MAC (0-3), which includes a couple of losses to a couple of below average teams in Ball State and Miami (OH). 

Another key factor here is that these two teams have historically played close games. Each of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 8-points or less. The Huskies are also a strong 3-1 ATS in their last 4 trips to Eastern Michigan. 

Northern Illinois is 12-2-3 ATS in their last 17 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after failing to cover the spread last time out. The Eagles are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 0-3 ATS in their 3 conference games. These trends combine to form a 83% (24-5) system in favor of the Huskies. Take Northern Illinois!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Siena +

The Saints are showing some great value here as a decently sized road dog against the Griffins. Canisius comes in not playing their best basketball. The Griffins have lost 3 of their last 4 with their only win during this stretch coming against lowly Marist, who is 0-6 in the MAAC and 1-15 overall. While Siena lost last time out at home against Fairfield, the Saints have won 3 of their last 5.

One of the things that I like here is that the Saints have played the Griffins tough in each of their last two meetings. They lost 88-92 at home in overtime and 65-71 in the MAAC Tournament. Canisius only has 1 starter back from last year, while the Siena has 3 starters back, including their star in senior guard Rob Poole, who is averaging 14.8 points and 5.1 rebounds.

Canisius is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their last game as a road underdog and 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after a road game where both teams scored 75+ points. Siena is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit loss at home and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 versus a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 80% (45-11) system in favor of the Saints. Take Siena!

5* Ohio Valley Game of the Month on Belmont +

We are getting exceptional value here with the Bruins catching double-digits against the Racers. Oddsmakers have inflated this line in favor of Murray State, who comes in having won 11 straight overall and are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 lined games. Adding to the value here is the fact that Belmont has failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games, including a 11-point loss at Eastern Illinois as a 4-point favorite last time out.

The thing you have to keep in mind with that loss to Eastern Illinois, is the fact that the Bruins shot a miserable 37.5%, while the Panthers connected on 59.3% of their attempts. There's a good chance Belmont isn't going to be that bad from the field in back-to-back games and I expect max effort defensively after allowing a team to almost shoot 60% from the field.

It's also worth noting that Murray State's strong 3-0 start in conference play, has come against some weak competition in Morehead State, Tennessee Tech and Jacksonville State, who are a combined 3-9 in the Ohio Valley.

The other key here is the recent history between these two teams have resulted in closely contested games. Adding to this is the fact that Belmont swept the season series a year ago, winning 99-96 at home as a 8-point dog and 70-68 at Murray State as a 7.5-point dog.

We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of Murray State. Favorites at least 15 games into the season, that have held each of their last 4 opponents under 40% shooting, who are shooting 47.5% or better on the season against a team that is allowing 42.5% to 45% are just 21-51 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Bruins. Take Belmont!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Wofford -

The Terriers have owned this series, winning 15 of the last 16 meetings, including a 77-56 beatdown of Citadel the last time they traveled to McAlister Field House. Wofford comes in having won 4 straight and with a win can secure their best start to a season in over 20 years.

While both of the Terriers two road wins inside conference play against Samford and Chattanooga have come by 4-points or less, I'm confident Wofford will win here by double-digits. The Bulldogs two conference wins have come against a couple off bottom feeders. They come in off a 23-points loss at Mercer and lost to Chattanooga by 19 at home in their conference opener.

Both of these teams shoot the ball extremely well. Wofford is hitting on 45.5% of their attempts and Citadel is shooting 45.7%. The key here is the Terriers defense. Wofford is only allowing opponents to make 43.1% of their attempts and are strong at defending the 3-pointer. The Terriers are allowing opponents to hit just 29.7% from long-distance, which is key here as the Bulldogs offense relies heavily on the 3-pointer (hitting 40.5%).

Wofford is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers/game, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference road games, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 off a win by 10 or more points and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing record at least 16 games into the season. These trends combine to form a 81% (46-11) system in favor of the Terriers. Take Wofford!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Creighton +

Creighton has lost 5 straight overall and 7 in a row against the spread. The public wants nothing to do with the Bluejays right now, which has forced the books to inflate this line in favor of Marquette, who has covered in each of their last two and are 10-5 ATS overall.

I think the value here is with Creighton, who at 0-4 in the Big East are going to be laying everything on the line to get their first conference win. The Bluejays showed signs of life in their 67-68 loss at home to Seton Hall last time out. Creighton shot 51.1% from the field after 4 straight games at 35.8% or worse. I look for the Bluejays to build off that performance and give Marquette all they can handle. The Golden Eagles are just 1-2 in conference play and just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 against fellow Big East opponents.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on the Blue Jays. Road underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against an opponent that has covered in 8 or more of their last 10 are 30-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on George Mason +

I think we are getting some great value here with George Mason listed as a road dog against the St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have dropped 4 of their last 5, including a 41-60 road loss at Richmond last time out.

While George Mason has also dropped two straight, they have at least been competitive with a 10-point loss at Richmond and 4-point defeat to UMass. The Patriots had also covered 5 straight prior to losing their last two. It's also worth noting that George Mason has played the tougher schedule to this point.

Backing the Patriots on the road has been a wise investment over recent seasons. George Mason is 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games. They are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3 and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a conference home loss.

There's also a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a loss by 6 points or less against an opponent after a combined score of 110 points or less are 68-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Patriots. Take George Mason!

4* NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Charleston +

This may seem like a favorable line to take Elon at home. The Phoenix are a respectable 10-7 overall and 2-2 inside CAA. Charleston on the other hand is a mere 5-12 overall and 0-4 inside CAA. However, I don't think there's as big a gap in talent as these records would indicate. Elon has played the much easier schedule and I think it has them overvalued.

The fact that Charleston is still winless in the conference adds even more value here. We can expect max effort here from the Cougars and you have to like the fact that they have won 6 of the last 7 meetings with the only loss being a 98-99 overtime defeat at Elon.

It's also worth noting that Charleston has a strong history as a road underdog. The Cougars are 63-36 (64%) in their last 99 road games when listed as an underdog or pick'em. Adding to this is the fact that Elon is a mere 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games against slow-down teams who average 53 or less shots/game.

We also find a strong system in play. Road teams who have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more combined points in their last 7 games are 145-90 ATS in the month of January since 1997. That's a 62% long-term system in favor of the Cougars. Take Charleston!

5* Miami/Duke ACC Game of the Month on Miami +

The first instinct when a team like Duke gets upset, is that they are going automatically going to come out an play their best game the next time out. I know the Blue Devils haven't lost back-to-back conference games in nearly 6 seasons, but they are being way overvalue here on the spread against a Miami team that is capable of winning this game outright.

The Hurricanes are 11-4 overall and just nearly upset undefeated Virginia at home in their ACC opener, losing in double-overtime. Miami bounced back with a 60-56 win over BC and I look for them to give the Blue Devils all they can handle. It's a lot different going into a game off a loss, especially after going this far into the year undefeated.

It's also worth noting that Miami has a history of playing well at Cameron Indoor Stadium. While the Hurricanes are just 1-4 SU in their last 5 visits they have 3-losses by exactly 3-points and their largest defeat during this stretch was 11-points and they were a 19-point underdog in that contest.

Miami is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Duke. Hurricanes are 30-16 ATS in their last 46 games against a top caliber team that's outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game at least 15 games in to the season, 29-12 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points and 12-2 over their last 14 when listed as a road underdog or pick'em. These trends combine to form a 72% (77-30) system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami!

3* Michigan/Ohio State NCAAB Main Event on Michigan +

This is way too many points for a rivalry game like this. Michigan has won each of the last 3 meetings and only once in the last 6 meetings have the Buckeyes won by more than double-digits. Let's not forget Ohio State just won the CFB National Championship, I wouldn't be shocked if the home fans weren't quite as rowdy as normal.

I just don't think Buckeyes will have the same energy as you typically would expect playing at home in this rivalry. Michigan on the other hand isn't going to take lightly to being a big underdog against a team they haven't lost to in two years. I also don't think there's a whole lot that separates these two teams talent wise. Ohio State has the better record, but Michigan has played the tougher schedule.

It's also important to note that the Buckeyes come in off a 66-69 road loss to Indiana. Ohio State is 0-6 ATS over the last 2 years when they come into a game off a road loss. Buckeyes are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall against the Big Ten and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 versus a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 80% (24-6) system in favor of the Wolverines. Take Michigan!

4* Florida St/Syracuse NCAAB Heavy Hitter on Florida St +

I like the value we are getting here with the Seminoles as a double-digit underdog against the Orange. Florida state opened up conference play with an impressive 86-75 home win over Virginia Tech and have won 5 of their last 6 overall.

While Syracuse comes in having won 5 straight, they are fortunate to not be sitting 0-2 inside the ACC. The Orange won 68-66 at Virginia Tech and 46-45 at Georgia Tech. Don't read into last year's 74-58 road win for Syracuse over the Seminoles. The Orange are down by their standards this season and are struggling to get going offensively. Syracuse shot just 39% from the field against the Hokies and only 34.6% versus the Yellow Jackets. I look for that poor shooting to carry over against Florida State, which is going to make it difficult for the Orange to win here by double-digits.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Seminoles. Underdogs in a game involving 2 poor 3-point shooting teams (32% or worse) at least 15 games into the season and off a game where they made at least 50% of their 3-point shots are 45-16 ATS since 1997. That's a 74% system in favor of the Seminoles. Take Florida State!

5* C-USA Game of the Month on Charlotte -

The 49ers have been a huge disappointment this season, but I think it's created some solid value here on Charlotte against an inferior Marshall team. The 49ers are just 6-8 overall, but could easily be sitting with double-digit wins. Out of the 8 losses, 6 have come by 8-points or less, including their most recent loss at Western Kentucky (66-74). 

The Thundering Herd on the other hand are every bit as bad as their 4-11 record. Marshall's four wins this season have come against the likes of Jacksonville St, Savannah St, West Virginia Tech and King University. Part of the problem for the Thundering Herd during their current 1-11 stretch is the absence of senior forward Shawn Smith, who is one of just 3 players averaging over double-figures.

Marshall is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against a marginal losing team that's won 40%-49% of their games. The Thundering Herd are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 when playing with 1 or less days of rest and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games played on a Saturday. These trends combine to form a 80% (44-11) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Charlotte!

4* Texas/Oklahoma State Big 12 Game of the Week on Texas +

The Longhorns should not be an underdog here against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is simply not as good as their 11-3 record would indicate, while Texas is without a doubt one of the elite teams in the country. While the Cowboys are a solid 7-1 at home, they got beat 73-64 at home by Maryland back on Dec. 21 and the Longhorns are even better than the Terrapins.

The key here is Texas was just embarrassed on their home floor by the Sooners 49-70 this past Monday. The Longhorns have responded well after a loss this season and I look for them to come out looking to make a statement here against the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games against teams outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game at least 15 games into the season. Adding to this is a strong system telling us to fade the Cowboys. Teams off a close conference loss by 3-points or less against an opponent off an upset loss by 15 or more points as a favorite are just 6-25 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 81% system in favor of the Longhorns. Take Texas!

3* NCAAB No Doubt Rout on Colorado State -

The Rams are showing some great value here as a mere 5-point road favorite against Air Force. Colorado State is getting zero respect right now. The Rams come in off back-to-back losses to New Mexico and Wyoming and have lost 5 straight and 9 of 10 overall against the spread. The Falcons on the other hand have covered 2 of 3 and are fresh off a 22-point home win over San Jose State.

Last year the Rams won by 12-points at Air Force as a 3-point favorite and have won six straight overall in the series. It's also worth noting that prior to losing their last two games, Colorado State had opened the season 14-0 with road wins over Colorado, Denver and New Mexico State. The Falcons are 7-1 at home, but those 7 wins have come against Colorado Christian, Western State, Grambling, Nebraska-Omaha, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Jacksonville State and San Jose State. Nothing to get worried about.

Look for the Rams to come out with one of their best performances of the season, as they do not want to fall to 1-3 in conference play. Air Force was just 6-12 in the MWC last year and lost their leading scorer in Tre' Coggins. Most experts have the Falcons picked to finish in the bottom 3 in the MWC this year.

Rams head coach Larry Eustachy has guided his teams that he's coached to a 21-8 ATS record after they scored 60 points or less in each of their last two games. That's a 72% system in favor of the Rams. Take Colorado State!

4* NCAAB C-USA Game of the Week on Southern Miss +

The Golden Eagles are showing some great value here as an underdog against UTSA. Southern Miss is being undervalued here due to having a worse record and coming in on a 4-game losing streak. The Roadrunners have played the easier schedule so far and that's the only reason they appear to be the better team.

UTSA is 1-1 in conference play, but their victory came against a bad North Texas Team. Their loss was a 15-point defeat to Rice, who many have pegged right alongside UTSA and North Texas at the bottom of C-USA.

Southern Miss did lose at home to Louisiana Tech in their conference opener 70-83, but keep in mind that the Bulldogs are 10-4, with three of their losses coming on the road against Temple (75-82), Syracuse (69-71) and NC State (65-73). This is a statement game for the Golden Eagles and I look for them to win this one outright. In the lone meeting last year between these two teams, Southern Miss won 85-56.

UTSA has not fared well against teams like the Golden Eagles, as they are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 versus slow-down teams who average 53 or less shots/game. The Roadrunners are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after playing their last game as a road underdog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after covering the spread last time out. These trends combine to form a 82% (36-8) system in favor of the Golden Eagles. Take Southern Miss!

5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Charlotte +

The 49ers are showing big time value here as an underdog against Western Kentucky. While Charlotte is just 6-7 and the Hilltoppers are 8-5, the 49ers are the better team. Charlotte has simply played a much more difficult schedule. The 49ers 7 losses have come against Miami (10-4, twice), Davidson (10-3), George Washington (12-3), @Georgetown (10-4), @Georgia Tech (9-5) and Old Dominion (12-1). Adding to this is the fact that 5 of those 7 losses came by 8-points or less.

The key here is that we are getting Charlotte at a great price, due to the 49ers coming in having lost 3 straight, while Western Kentucky has won 3 in a row and 5 of 6. The Hilltoppers are also being overvalued here due to having gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 lined games.

Charlotte has thrived in the role of the underdog this season, going 7-1 ATS when they are catching points. 49ers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Western Kentucky on the other hand is a mere 3-10 ATS in their last 13 following a SU win, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 off a home win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off 3 or more consecutive victories. These trends combine to form a 82% (40-9) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Charlotte!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Maryland -

Maryland is showing some great value here as a small road favorite against Illinois. One of the reasons that I think we are getting some solid value here with the Terrapins, is the assumption that Fighting Illini will be motivated in their conference home opener and out to avoid an 0-3 start in Big Ten Play.

While Illinois may be motivated, they will also be without their best player in senior guard Rayvonte Rice, who fractured his hand in practice. Rice leads the team in scoring (17.2 ppg), rebounding (6.9 rpg) and steals (1.8 spg). He also was shooting 51.5% from the field and a team-high 48.3% from long distance. Malcolm Hill is the only other player who is averaging double figures.

Without Rice, Illinois simply has no chance of keeping this one close. Maryland comes in averaging 74.1 ppg on 46.2% shooting, but it's their defense that will be the difference here. The Terrapins are allowing just 61.3 ppg and holding opponents to just 36.9% shooting. In their conference opener, they went on the road and held Michigan State to just 32.3% shooting.

Illinois is 3-12 (20%) ATS in their last 15 home games after playing two straight conference matchups, 4-17 (19%) ATS in their last 21 home games when listed as an underdog of 3-points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference road loss. Illini are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game at least 15 game into the season. These trends combine to form at 84% (43-8) system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland!

4* Temple/Tulane AAC Vegas Insider on Temple -

The Owls have been one of the most improved teams in the country. Temple has opened up 11-4 after going a mere 9-22 all of last season. The Owls come into this game having won 5 straight, which includes an impressive 77-52 home win over then No. 10 Kansas and a 57-53 overtime win at Connecticut in their AAC opener. Temple backed up that big win over the Huskies with a 84-78 home win over UCF.

While Tulane comes in with a slightly better overall record at 11-3 and are also 2-0 inside conference play, I have not been as impressed with the Green Wave as I have the Owls. Tulane has played the easier schedule of the two, which I think is what has Temple showing some great value here as a small road favorite.

Tulane is just 19-43 (31%) ATS in their last 62 home games in the month of January and 4-13 (24%) ATS in their last 17 home games off a conference road win. Temple on the other hand is a perfect 7-0 (100%) ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games when they come in having won at least 5 of their last 7 games. These trends combine to form a 73% (63-23) system in favor of the Owls. Take Temple!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Fordham +

Fordham is showing some solid value here as a huge underdog against Rhode Island. Fordham has won two of the last three in the series and lost by 12-points last year at Rhode Island, despite shooting just 33.8% from the field.

This spread is clearly inflated due to the oddsmakers knowing the public wants nothing to do with Fordham, who is 0-4 on the road, and will be quick to back Rhode Island, who is 6-0 at home and coming in off 3 straight covers.

Rhode Island is just 25-44 (36%) ATS in their last 69 games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4, 12-29 (29%) ATS in their last 41 as a home favorite of 10 or more points and are just 3-12 (20%) ATS in their last 15 home games after 4 or more consecutive SU wins. These trends combine to form a 68% (85-40) system. Take Fordham.

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Minnesota -

The Golden Gophers are being extremely undervalued here at home due to opening up Big Ten play with back-to-back losses, including an ugly 12-point loss last time out against Maryland. Ohio State on the other hand comes in ranked No. 22 in the country and are fresh off a 16-point home win over Illinois, but this is not the same caliber a Buckeyes team that we have seen in years past.

Ohio State has a strong record, but they have played a soft schedule and not played that great against the better teams they have faced. This will also be just the second true road game for the Buckeyes this season.

Minnesota has opened up a perfect 9-0 at home and there's no question that we are going to get the Golden Gophers' best effort here as they look to avoid an 0-3 start inside conference play. Keep in mind that last year, Minnesota knocked off Ohio State 63-53 at home as a 3-point dog and I'm expecting a similar result in this one.

Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games when they come in having won 5/6 of their last 7 games, just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after covering the number last time out and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Minnesota is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after failing to cover 2 out of their last 3 and 33-17 ATS in their last 50 home games off a conference loss by 10 or more points.

Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of Ohio State. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have beat the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games against an opponent that has gone under the total by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games are just 16-43 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Gophers. Take Minnesota!

4* NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Arkansas St +

The Red Wolves should not be an underdog here against the Warhawks. ULM's 6 wins this season have come against the likes of Champion Baptist, Louisiana Coll, Northwestern St, Central Baptist and LSU-Alexandria. In their last two games they lost at Samford 50-64 as a 5-point favorite and at Georgia State 45-65 as a 16.5-point dog.

The Red Wolves come in off a heartbreaking 73-74 home loss to Appalachian State as a 8-point favorite, which I believe has them undervalued here. Prior to that loss, Arkansas State had won 4 straight and covered each of their previous 5. The Red Wolves have covered 4 in a row on the road, including a 69-55 win at Mississippi State as a 12-point underdog.

ULM is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games with a line of +3 to -3, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after back-to-back road losses by 10 or more points and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after scoring 55 points or less in their last contest. These trends combine to form a 83% (33-7) system in favor of the Red Wolves. Take Arkansas State!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Wofford -

Wofford is showing some great value here as a mere 1.5-point road favorite against Chattanooga. The Terriers are simply being undervalued due to having lost 3 straight against the spread. Wofford not only has the better record at 10-4, compared to Chattanooga at 9-6, but they have played a more difficult schedule up to this point.

The Mocs 9 wins have come against the likes of Robert Morris, Coastal Carolina, Montreat-Ander, Citadel, Northern Kentucky, UAB, Lipscomb and Furman, while 3 of Woffords 4 losses have come on the road against Stanford, West Virgina and Duke. What stands out here is the Terriers have an impressive 55-54 win at NC State, who is 11-4 overall and off to a 2-0 start in the ACC.

Wofford is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against conference opponents, winning by an average of 8.4 ppg and are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after playing their last game as a favorite. The Terriers are also 11-3 ATS in their last 14 versus poor passing teams that are averaging 12 or fewer assists/game at least 15 games into the season. These trends combine to form a 79% (33-9) system in favor of the Terriers. Take Wofford!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on UCLA +

The Bruins are showing some great value here as a double-digit underdog against the Utes. While UCLA is a mere 8-6 on the season, they have played a brutal schedule up to this point. Their 6 losses have come against the likes of Oklahoma, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Alabama and Colorado. Only 2 of those came by more than 10 points (UNC & Kentucky).

Utah is off to a strong 11-2 start but have not went up against the same caliber a schedule as the Bruins. The Utes do have a couple of solid wins. They knocked off Wichita State at home 69-68 and won at BYU 65-61, but they also lost at San Diego State 49-53 and at a neutral site versus Kansas 60-63. The rest of their scheduled has been soft and I just don't see Utah turning this into a blowout like this line would suggest. UCLA is more than capable of winning this game outright, which is why they are showing such great value here as a 12-point dog.

Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of the Utes. Home favorites of 10 or more points who are a strong 3pt shooting team (36.5% or better) against an average 3pt shooting team (32%-36.5%), after two straight games where they made at least 55% of their shots, are just 15-42 ATS since 1997. That's a 74% system in favor of the Bruins. Take UCLA!

5* Richmond/Davidson A-10 Game of the Month on Richmond +

Davidson comes in having covered 4 straight, while Richmond has lost 7 straight against the spread and enter off back-to-back losses at home to Wake Forest and Northeastern. This has forced oddsmakers to inflate the line here on the Wildcats, creating some big time value on the Spiders.

Richmond's only loss all season by more than 6-points came on the road against NC State, who has opened up the season 10-4. The Spiders lost at Old Dominion by just 6-points, at UNI by just 5-points and their last two losses to Wake Forest and Northeastern at home came by a combined 3-points.

While Davidson's only two losses have come against ranked opponents in North Carolina and Virginia, the rest of their schedule has been far from challenging and I wouldn't be shocked at all if Richmond won this game outright. The Wildcats are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after covering 4 of their last 5, while the Spiders are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against explosive offensive teams that are averaging 84+ points/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Davidson. Home favorites that have won 80% or more of their games that are coming in off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog are just 18-43 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Spiders. Take Richmond!

4* Georgia Tech/Notre Dame ACC Game of the Week on Georgia Tech +

We are getting some great value here with Georgia Tech, as Notre Dame is being overvalued here due to being 13-1 and ranked No. 14 in the country. What a lot of people overlook with the Fighting Irish is that they have played a cupcake schedule and shouldn't be laying this many points against a quality Yellow Jackets squad.

Georgia Tech is 9-3 with their three losses all coming by 6-points or less. The Yellow Jackets should have no problem keeping this one within double-digits. Last year they lost by just 3-points at Notre Dame (62-65) and knocked off the Irish at home 74-69. Another big key here is that it's going to be difficult for Notre Dame to give Georgia Tech their full attention, as they have a huge road game on deck against North Carolina Monday on ESPN.

Notre Dame is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing against a team with a winning record, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games when listed as a favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games when they come in having covered 3 out of their last 4. These trends combine to form a dynamite 89% (24-3) system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!

3* NCAAB Early Bird Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +

The Wildcats are showing some great value here against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is not nearly as good as their 10-2 record would indicate, as they have benefited from an early non-conference schedule. We are starting to see evidence of that by their last two games, which saw them lose at home to Maryland 64-73 as a 9-point favorite and barely escape with a 74-72 win over Missouri on a neutral court as a 10-point favorite.

Another big reason for the value here is that Kansas State comes in off a 46-50 home loss to Georgia as a 3.5-point favorite, which followed a shocking 56-58 home loss to Texas Southern. The Wildcats have now lost 4 games by 6-points or less, including a 68-72 defeat to Arizona and 64-65 loss at Tennessee. Kansas State could very easily be sitting at 11-1 instead of 7-5.

One other thing I like here is that main reason the Wildcats fell at home to Detroit is they shot just 31.9% from the field. It was the 4th time this season that Kansas State shot 35% or worse. The key here is that the Wildcats have followed up each of their previous 3 poor shooting performances by hitting at least 53% from the field.

Oklahoma State is just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off two or more consecutive games that went OVER the total, 9-18 ATS in their last 27 versus teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 8-17 ATS teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field on the season. Kansas State is a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games against a team that's won 80% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a 75% (54-18) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Kansas State!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +

We are getting some great value here with Wisconsin-Milwaukee catching double-digits. While the Panthers have yet to win on the road, this is too many points for a Cleveland State team that is just 6-8 on the season to be laying.

Just in the last month we have seen the Vikings lose at home to a couple of average teams in Toledo and Eastern Illinois, plus they needed overtime to get by a San Francisco team that isn't very good. Cleveland State is also in a big letdown spot here coming off a big road game against VCU and going up against a team they have had no trouble getting past in recent meetings.

One of the big reasons we are getting such great value here with the Panthers is due to how they come into this game. WI-Milwaukee has lost 3 straight with their last two coming by 30-points at Arkansas and 24 at South Dakota. The Panthers have shot a miserable 32.8% from the field during this 3-game stretch and that kind of poor shooting doesn't tend to last long. Look for the Panthers to come out extremely motivated and while they likely won't win this one outright, they should be able to keep it close enough to cover.

WI-Milwaukee is 46-24 ATS in their last 70 off a SU loss by 15 points or more and 32-17 ATS in their last 49 after 3 or more consecutive losses. Panthers are also 68-46 ATS in their last 114 road games against teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 10 or more points who have failed to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, that have won just 20% to 40% of their games and are going up against a team with a losing record are 91-49 ATS since 1997. That's a 65% system in favor of the Panthers. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee!

3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on San Diego +

We are getting some great value here backing the Toreros as a underdog against the Dons. While both teams come in with identical records, San Diego has played the much tougher schedule and is getting undervalued here after opening conference play with back-to-back home losses to Portland and No. 7 Gonzaga. That's going to have the Toreros coming out extremely motivated and I look for them to come away with the outright win.

Another thing that I like with San Diego is that they are coming off two dreadful shooting performances. The Toreros shot just 37.1% from the field against Portland and a mere 26.8% against Gonzaga, yet they only loss by 3-points to Portland and 12-points to Gonzaga. Look for San Diego to get a big boost offensively in this one, as San Francisco has allowed 48.1% shooting to Pacific and 51.9% shooting to St. Mary's in their two conference games.

San Diego is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games after 1 or more consecutive losses, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games after playing their last contest as an underdog and a perfect 7-0 ATS after shooting 28% or worse in their last game. These trends combine to form a 79% (34-9) system in favor of the Toreros. Take San Diego!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Northern Iowa -

This might seem like an evenly matched game based on these two teams records going into the conference opener, but UNI has played the much tougher schedule and I look for the Panther to have no problem covering this 3.5-point spread.

Northern Iowa's only loss on the season is a 87-93 double-overtime defeat at VCU. The Panthers have a 19-point win over Northwestern and 12-point win over and Iowa team that has upset UNC and Ohio State. Evansville's only two wins against teams that currently have a winning record are Wright State (8-6) and Belmont (8-5).

One of the big things that I like here is that we can expect to get Northern Iowa's best effort here in their conference opener, which should lead to an easy win. In the two matchups between these two teams last year, the Panthers won 80-53 at Evansville and 95-81 at home. UNI is a better team in 2014 and I look for them to win here by double-digits rather easily.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Purple Aces. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off 3 or more consecutive home wins are just 7-28 ATS since 1997 in the month of January. That's a 80% system in favor of the Panthers. Take UNI!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Wyoming -

Wyoming has one of the best homecourt advantages in the nation and we are getting some great value here with the Cowboys laying just 6-points at home against the Rebels. Wyoming is 11-2 on the season with a perfect 10-0 record at home. Their only two losses have come on the road against quality opponents in SMU and California. In the Cowboys 10 home wins, 8 have come by at least 9 points, including a 56-33 blowout win over Colorado as a 2-point underdog.

The Rebels have played just one true road game up to this point in the season and they got embarrassed 55-77 at Arizona State as a mere 7-point underdog. I still think we are seeing UNLV overvalued from that big win at home over Arizona, which they followed up with a cover against an awful Southern Utah team. With a huge game at Kansas on deck this weekend, this is the perfect letdown spot for the Rebels.

UNLV is just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games after covering 2 of their last 3, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs the MWC. Wyoming is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against team that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 41-21 in their last 62 home games off a win by 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 72% (80-31) system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Wyoming!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Southern Illinois -

We are getting some great value here with the Salukis laying just 3-points in their conference home opener against Missouri State. Southern Illinois had won 7 of 8 before losing their last two at home leading up to their Christmas break. Head coach Barry Hinson has had his players full attention during their 8 day layoff and I look for them to take it to the Bears, who are just 2-5 away from home.

Southern Illinois is only giving up 59.3 ppg at home and I look for their defense to be the difference in this one. Missouri State doesn't exactly come in shooting with confidence. The Bears have connected on just 33.6% of their attempts over their last two games at home and are shooting just 41.6% from the field on the road this season. 

Missouri State is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after scoring 30 points or less in the 1st half of each of their last two games and are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games after committing 8 or less turnovers in their last contest. These two trends combine to form a strong 76% (32-10) system in favor of the Salukis. Take Southern Illinois!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Ohio -

This is a complete mismatch in talent and I look for Ohio to have to no problem winning at home by double-digits over the Seahawks. Keep in mind the last time these two teams met back in 2012, the Bobcats cruised to a 85-47 home win. UNC-Wilmington has gone just 2-5 on the road this year and just recently lost at Campbell 63-69 and Minnesota 82-108.

Ohio is simply being undervalued here based on the fact that they have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games with a spread listed. The Seahawks are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points, 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 off a SU loss and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a losing record. It's also worth noting that Ohio is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 versus the CAA. These trends combine to form a 76% (38-12) system in favor of the Bobcats. Take Ohio!

4* Maryland/Michigan St Big Ten Game of the Month on Michigan St -

While it hasn't been a typical start to the year for the Spartans, this is still one of the top teams in the Big Ten and I look for them to come out and make a statement against what I feel is a slightly overrated Maryland squad. The Terrapins do have a nice win over Iowa State and their only loss was against undefeated Virginia, but most of their scheduled hasn't been challenging.

It's not very often you will get the Spartans laying this small a number on their home floor and it's usually a good idea to jump on the opportunity when it presents itself. Michigan State is 6-1 ATS at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 22.9 ppg.

One of the reasons we are getting value here with the Spartans is they just recently lost at home to Texas Southern 64-71 as a 24.5-point favorite. The thing you have to keep in mind is they were without one of their best players in Branden Dawson, who will be back in the lineup tonight. I also think that game served as a wake-up call for this team more than anything.

Michigan State was able to bounce back from that ugly loss with a 82-56 home win over the Citadel. The Spartans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a home win by 10 or more points, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 vs a strong 3-pt shooting team that is making 37% or more of their attempts and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a win by 20+ points. Maryland is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 65 or less in each of their last 2 games. These trends combine to form a 78% (57-16)  system in favor of the Spartans. Take Michigan State!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Toledo +

I think we are catching some great value here with Toledo. The Rockets are clearly going to be motivated for a game against Duke, while the Blue Devils could struggle to play up to their potential in what will be their first game following an 11-day break and just their third game since Dec. 3.

In Duke's last two home games they only beat Army by 20 as a 27.5-point favorite and Elon by just 13 as a 32.5-point favorite. The books are clearly inflating the Blue Devils' lines, knowing the public is going to back this team regardless of the spread.

Toledo has shown they can hang against some quality opponents. The Rockets lost by just 10-points on the road against then No. 15 VCU and three days later only lost by 12-points at Oregon. Toledo will come in playing with a lot of confidence, as they have won 5 straight since a couple of heartbreaking losses to Detroit (79-82) and Oakland (79-81).

It's also worth noting that Toledo's last win game came on the road against McNeese St. The Rockets are a strong 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games off a road win. Duke on the other hand is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. These trends combine to form a 80% (28-7) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Toledo!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Monmouth -

The fact that Monmouth is favored here is a strong indicator that the Hawks are the better team, as the public is going to be all over the more well-known team in Rutgers, especially considering the Scarlet Knights are 7-5 on the season and Monmouth is just 5-6. The Hawks are also coming in off a 25-point home loss to St Francis-NY, while the Scarlet Knights are off a 25-point win over Sacred Heart.

One of the big keys here is that this is a tough spot for Rutgers, who are going to struggle to give Monmouth their full attention with their inaugural Big Ten opener at home against Northwestern on deck Wednesday. The Scarlet Knights are also a miserable 8-24 ATS in their last 32 off a game where they covered the spread, while Monmouth is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Favorites that returned all 5 starters from the previous season, who are coming off a game where they scored 60 or less points, are 161-97 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of the Hawks. Take Monmouth!

3* Kentucky/Louisville NCAAB Main Event on Louisville +

Kentucky is being overvalued here in a game that I think they are going to struggle to win. This will be the Wildcats first true road game of the season and only their third game away from home overall. This may not seem for a big deal with the way Kentucky has been rolling this year, but I'll gladly take 6-points with this Louisville team at home.

One of the big reasons that Kentucky has been so dominant to open the season is largely due to the fact that they have been bigger and better than their opponents. Few teams can match up with their 5 plays who are all 6'9 or taller, but the Cardinals are one team that can. Louisville's 4 players at 6'8 or taller and a special talent in junior forward Montrezl Harrell. Another big key here is Harell and the Cardinals won't be intimidated by the Wildcats.

Kentucky is just 6-16 ATS in their 22 road games over the last 3 seasons and have actually lost these games by an average score of 68.8 to 70.7. Wildcats are also just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games off a blowout win by 20 or more points and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games following 3 or more straight home games. These trends combine to form a 74% (34-12) system in favor of the Cardinals. Take Louisville!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech +

The Yellow Jackets are showing some decent value here as a 4-point underdog against the Flyers. Dayton just recently suspended both starting center Devon Scott and backup center Jalen Robinson. Those losses leave the Flyers without any size down low. In fact, Dayton's tallest active player now is just 6'6. Three of Georgia Tech's top four scorers are all 6'8 or taller and I look for the Yellow Jackets to take advantage of their big size advantage with a lot of easy baskets in the paint and a huge edge on the boards. Even prior to the losses of Scott and Robinson, this Dayton team was overvalued and I think it's going to take a couple games before the oddsmakers adjust accordingly.

Yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games when listed as an underdog of 6 points or less, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win.

Underdogs who are an average offensive team (67-74 ppg) against a poor offensive team (63-67 ppg) that have allowed 65 points or less in 4 straight games are 50-21 ATS since 1997. That's a 70% system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Marshall +

This may seem like an evenly matched game and one that Nevada could win with it being on their home floor, but the Wolf Pack should not be favored against Marshall, especially not by this many points. Nevada has lost 8 straight games with their only two wins coming against Cal Poly and Adams State. The Wolf Pack just recently lost at home to Cal State-Fullerton 55-65 as a 5-points favorite.

While Marshall is just 1-7 in their last 8 games, they have played a much more difficult schedule and nearly pulled off a huge upset last week. The Thundering Herd lost 66-69 as a 18-point underdog to West Virginia on a neutral site. Marshall also lost by just 4-points to Penn State as a 6.5-point dog. I just don't see Nevada being able to score enough to get the win, as the Wolf Pack are only averaging 58.7 ppg, while Marshall is putting up 69.4 ppg.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of Nevada. Home favorites that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, who have won 20% or less of their games and are playing an opponent with a losing record are just 3-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a dynamite 90% system in favor of the Thundering Herd. Take Marshall!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Cal +

Cal should not be getting this many points at home against the Badgers. As good as Wisconsin is, this will be their first true road game outside of their home state, as their two true road games to this point have come against Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Marquette.

This is also a difficult spot for the Badgers to be 100% focused, as they haven't played in 8 days. Too much rest can be a bad thing and I look for the Badgers to come out flat here in a hostile environment. Keep in mind that each of the last 2 top 10 teams to visit Haas Pavilion have left with a loss. The most recent being No. 1 Arizona back in February last year.

The other big key here is that the Golden Bears are a talented team. Cal has an identical 10-1 record as the Badgers with their only loss coming against Texas, who I would rank ahead of Wisconsin. The Longhorns only defeat is a 8-point loss at Kentucky. The Golden Bears also have an impressive 14-point win over Syracuse on their resume.

Cal is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games, 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning % above .600, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a road winning % above .600. These trends combine to form a 79% (19-5) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Illinois-Chicago +

Northwestern is getting way too much respect at home against UIC this afternoon. The Wildcats are still without last year's leading scorer JerShon Cobb and are just 2-4 over their last 6 games following a perfect 5-0 start. The Flames are definitely capable of keeping this one within single-digits. UIC has actually won 4 of the last 5 in the series, including a 50-44 victory in their last visit to Northwestern back in 2012, a game in which they were listed as a 11-point underdog.

One of the key things here is that this is a much bigger game to UIC than it is Northwestern, plus with this game being played right around Christmas, there doesn't figure to be the same kind of energy inside Welsh-Ryan Arena than you would normally expect to see for a Wildcats home game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play telling us to fade Northwestern. Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who are off a win by 6-points or less against an opponent that is off a loss by 15 or more points are just 74-121 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of the Flames. Take UIC!

4* NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Xavier -

Xavier is a good team and I’ll gladly lay this small number on them today.  Auburn likes to bring the full court pressure but Xavier has some solid, veteran guards that won’t be rattled.

On the flip side Aubun’s interior defense is a real weakness and Xavier is shooting 59% from inside the 3-point line this year so I think they will mop up down low.  Auburn is struggled on the offensive glass while giving up too many second chances, while Xavier has been rebounding well all year long, so advantage there with the second chances.

Xavier’s two losses came against two under-rated teams in Long Beach State and UTEP.  They have impressive wins over Alabama and Missouri already.  Auburn hasn’t come close to beating a team in Xavier’s class yet.  They lost by 20 against Tulsa and 30 against Colorado.  I think Xavier rolls here today.

The Musketeers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 60 points or less, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a win by 15 or more points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after 3 or more consecutive wins.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a road win and playing with 5 or 6 days of rest are 71-35 ATS since 1997. That's 67% system in favor of the Musketeers. Take Xavier!

5* NCAAB In-State Rivalry Game of the Month on Notre Dame -

This is a neutral site game but I’ll lay the small number with the better team. Notre Dame’s sole loss this year was to Providence when their defense let them down, but Purdue hasn’t played well on offense against any decent team in nearly a month.

Notre Dame hasn’t played a great schedule, but they are coming off a 20 point win over Florida State and have a W over a very good Michigan State Spartan team. The Boilermakers on the other had has some losses to Vanderbilt and North Florida.  

Purdue has struggled against good defenses the last two years, going just 3-12 ATS against teams who hold opponents to 39% or less from the floor. Notre Dame just fits that criteria as they have held opponents to 38.8%.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on the Fighting Irish. Neutral site favorites that have an explosive offense (76+ ppg) that have scored 75+ in each of their last two games and are going up against an opponent that averages (74-76 ppg) are 37-14 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Fighting Irish. Take Notre Dame!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Florida -

This will the Gators final game before a 9-day break leading up to their in-state showdown against rival Florida State. I look for Florida to come out strong and add their 4th straight win after dropping 4 of their first 7 and lay a beating on the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is just 5-5 on the season with three ugly losses at Arkansas by 30-points, at home to Minnesota by 15-points and at NC State by 13-points. They also were beat at home by both Iona (81-85) and Delaware State (65-72).

I think we are getting some great value here on Florida due to their less than impressive start to the season. However, the Gators have responded with three straight wins by at least 25-points and there's nothing to be ashamed about having 4 losses to Miami, Georgetown, North Carolina and Kansas. Florida will likely continue to struggle against top notch teams until fully healthy, should continue to beat up on bad teams like Wake Forest.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Favorites in games played on a neutral site that are averaging 67-74 ppg against an opponent that is allowing 67-74 ppg after 3 straight wins by 10 or more points are 51-15 ATS since 1997. That's a 77% system in favor of the Gators. Take Florida!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Western Michigan +

Western Michigan is showing big time value here as an underdog. Northwestern has lost their top returning scorer from last year in senior guard JerShon Cobb this week and in their first game without him were upset at home by Central Michigan 67-80 as a 6-point favorite. Not only did the offense struggle, but they allowed the Chippewas to shoot 58% from the field.

Western Michigan comes in off solid win on the road at Pacific 80-72 and are a respectable 4-3 away from home. The Broncos will be motivated to take advantage of the Wildcats without Cobb and get some revenge from last year's 16-point loss at Northwestern. I'll take the 3.5-points as insurance, but I fully expect Western Michigan to win this game outright.

The Broncos are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU win, while Northwestern is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after being listed as a favorite in each of their previous two games. These trends combine to form a 84% (26-5) system in favor of the Broncos. Take Western Michigan!

4* Ohio State/North Carolina NCAAB Vegas Insider on North Carolina +

Ohio State has played a joke of a schedule so far and in their only real game they got beat by 9 points against Louisville.  North Carolina on the other hand has played a decent schedule and I think that will have them more prepared for this game than the Buckeyes.

It’s tough to compare stats since the strength of schedules are so different for these two squads, but North Carolina is holding opponents to 25.2% from the 3-point line this year while Ohio State has been shooting nearly 42%.  I think this is a stat the Buckeyes have inflated by the inferior competition and they aren’t going to be getting the easy points they are used to with how the Tar Heels play defense.  Louisville was able to completely shut down their offense, and North Carolina should be able to do the same.

A couple of long term trends support our position here.  Since 1997 the Tar Heels are 73-45 ATS after allowing 60 points or less and they are 142-112 ATS in non-conference games.

Adding to this is the fact that Ohio State is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site contests and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 20 points. These trends combine to form a 86% (30-5) system in favor of the Tar Heels. Take North Carolina!