Sports Picks & Predictions

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Oakland +

I really like the value we are getting here with the Golden Grizzlies as a decently priced road dog against Georgia. Oakland is 3-2 with their only two losses coming on the road against a couple of quality teams in Colorado State by 6 and Southern Illinois by 9. The Bulldogs are 2-2 and have struggled in their 3 home games. They lost outright to UT Chattanooga as 10.5-point favorite and barely held on for a 49-46 win over High Point as a 9-point favorite. 

Twice this season Georgia has shot worse than 30% from the field and both of those came at home against Murray State and High Point. The Golden Grizzlies come into this game shooting lights out, hitting 50% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games. They also have held each of their last 2 opponents under 32% from the field. 

The Golden Grizzlies are 12-4 ATS in their last 19 after allowing 30 points or less in the 1st half of 2 straight games and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 when leading by 10+ at the half in their last 2 games. They are also 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games off a win by 15 or more points and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 against teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game. Take Oakland! 

4* Clemson/Minnesota NCAAB Vegas Insider on Minnesota -

The Golden Gophers are showing some great value here as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against Clemson. Minnesota is being undervalued due to having failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games, while the Tigers are getting too much respect for a blowout 76-58 win over Rutgers. 

Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 at home and have a bigger edge on their home floor than this line would indicate. This will be Clemson's first true road game of the season, and we have already seen them lose a neutral site matchup to UMass by 17 points as a 7.5-point favorite. 

Tigers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus the Big Ten, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Minnesota! 

3* Providence/Mich St NCAAB Late Night Bailout on Providence +

Not a surprise here to see Michigan State being overvalued by the books after their perfect 6-0 start which has included 4 straight wins by double-digits, plus that earlier victory against Kansas. However, Providence is not a team they should be giving 8-points to. 

The Friars are also 6-0 and have some impressive wins on their early resume, including a 69-65 victory over Arizona on a neutral court in their last game. Providence won that game outright as a 5.5-point underdog and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they pulled off the upset over the Spartans.

The Friars are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral court games when listed as a underdog or pick'em and 11-3 ATS in all tournament games over the last 3 years. They are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 against elite teams like Michigan State, who are shooting 45% or better from the field and holding opponents to 42% or worse. Take Providence! 

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Hawaii +

The Rainbow Warriors are showing some solid value here as dog against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is in a prime letdown spot after an impressive showing in the Puerto Rico Tipoff, which saw them close out with wins over Mississippi State and Minnesota. That game against the Gophers was a big one for this team and their head coach, who previously was the head coach for Minnesota. 

Tough spot for the Red Raiders to play well off the mini vacation to Puerto Rico and Thanksgiving break. Keep in mind this is a team that only beat High Point by just 4 points in their only home game so far this season. Hawaii is 4-0 and have a talented team that's capable of contending for the title in the Big West Conference. I look for the Warriors to be the much more motivated team and to keep this one close throughout. 

The Warriors are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 85 or more points in their previous game and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 85+ at home. They are also a strong 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after a game where they failed to cover the number. Take Hawaii! 

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on UAB -

This is going to be a long season for Illinois on the hardwood. The Fighting Illini are just 2-3 to start the season with losses at home against the likes of North Florida (81-93) and UT-Chattanooga (77-81). Illinois nearly had another bad loss at home in their last game, as they barely escaped with a 82-79 win over Chicago State. 

It's not a big surprise to see the Illini struggling. They lost 4 key contributors from last year and are without three of their top returnees due to injury in Tracy Abrams, Kendrick Nunn and Jaylon Tate. I look for Illinois to have a tough time keeping it competitive here against a talented UAB team that returns all 5 starters from last year's NCAA Tournament team that pulled off that huge upset over No. 3 seed Iowa State. 

Adding to this is a great system backing the Blazers. Favorites that have allowed 30 points or less in the first half of 2 straight games, who have have two or more returning starters than their opponent are 43-10 (81%) ATS in the first 5 games over the last 5 seasons (perfect 3-0 this season). Take UAB! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Syracuse -

Syracuse has opened the season 3-0, but failed to cover last time out against Elon at home, winning by only 11 as a 17-point favorite. I believe that's created some value here, though I don't think it's going to matter. The Orange should have their way against Charlotte and cruise here to a 20+ point win. 

It's not often you get a common opponent this early in the season, but that's what we have here with both teams having played Elon. I mentioned Syracuse beat them by 11, well the 49ers lost at home to Elon 74-85. That final score is very misleading, as Charlotte trailed in that game by 35-points early in the 2nd half. 

Syracuse is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games away from home in the month of November and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 on the road after 3 straight wins by 10 or more points. The Orange are also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 road games against bad defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 45 or better from the field.

Adding to this is the fact that favorites off 2 consecutive wins by 10 or more points with 2 or more returning starters than their opponent are 26-5 (84%) ATS in the first 5 games of the season over the last 5 years. Take Syracuse! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Arizona St -

I lost going against Marquette last night with LSU, but I think we are seeing even better value here fading the Golden Eagles. Marquette squeaked out a 81-80 win, despite shooting 51.7% from the field and holding LSU to just 37.0%. I look for the Golden Eagles to return to the form from their previous game, which saw them lose at home by 28-points (61-89) to Iowa. 

Arizona State got their season started off on the wrong foot with a 63-66 loss at home to Sacramento State, but have since won 3 straight, including a 83-74 victory against Belmont and a 79-76 win over NC State last night. The Sun Devils are a team on the rise under first year head coach Bobby Hurley and return 4 starters. They also added in four junior college transfers to help out right away, giving them some much-needed depth, which is key in these tournaments where they have to play back-to-back games. 

Adding to this is a huge system in favor of the Sun Devils. Favorites who had a winning record the previous season with 2 or more starters returning than their opponent are 109-58 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons in the first 5 games of year. Take Arizona State! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on LSU -

I played against Marquette in their last game against Iowa and won easily, as the Golden Eagles got destroyed at home 61-89 as a 4-point underdog. While I don't think it will be quite as big a blowout, I fully expect LSU to win here by double-digits. 

Marquette's defense against the Hawkeyes wasn't even close to being good enough to compete with a quality opponent. They allowed Iowa to shoot 54.5% from the field and will now face an LSU team that comes in shooting 49.2% after their first 3 games. Marquette will have no answer for the Tigers' freshman duo of Antonio Blakeney (19.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Ben Simmons (18.7 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 4.7 apg). LSU should also be able to keep the Golden Eagles offense in check. Opponents are shooting just 38.7% from the field and 28.8% from long-distance against them this season. 

Marquette is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game, 2-12 ATS in their last 14 against a team with a winning record and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 overall. Tigers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 against the Big East and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover the spread in their previous contest. Take LSU! 

3* Georgetown/Duke NCAAB ATS Annihilator on Duke - 

The Blue Devils have failed to cover a spread (0-3) in the early portion of the season and are coming into this game off a hard-fought 79-71 win against VCU, which followed a 63-74 loss to Kentucky. I look for Duke to respond in a big way here against Georgetown. The Hoyas come in off a 71-61 win over Wisconsin, but the Badgers are way down this year from last season. Georgetown did play Maryland tough in their previous contest, but they also lost at home to Redford. 

Duke is simply the far superior team and I look for coach K to draw up a gameplan to limit the Hoya's most important player in D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera. On the flip side of this, the Blue Devils have too much offensive fire-power for Georgetown to contain. Duke is scoring 86.7 ppg and shooting 47.6% from the field. 

The Hoyas are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 off a win and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after covering 2 of their last 3. The Blue Devils are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference away games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after going under the total in 2 straight games. Take Duke! 

3* NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Washington -

The Huskies are coming into the 2015 season with a re-newed since of energy after landing a big time recruiting class that is easily the best to this point under head coach Lorenzo Romar. The key here is not a lot of people are aware of how talented this Washington team is, as there's not much attention on them after last year's disappointing campaign that saw them go 16-15 overall and just 5-13 in the Pac-12. 

Washington's new blood has already proven themselves against a quality opponent, as they stunned Texas on a neutral court 77-71 as a 11-point underdog. They followed that up with a 33-point home win over Mount Saint Mary's. I look for the Huskies to have no problem covering this number against Penn. The Quakers are a long way from home and have not played anyone close to as talented as Washington. Penn won 76-75 over Robert Morris, who later lost by 62-points at Cincinnati. They also beat Delaware State by just 6, who has since lost at Nebraska by 15. 

The Quakers are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 against a team with a winning record and have lost these by an average of 15 ppg. We also see that home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points from a major div 1 conference against a team from a mid-major conference are 151-81 (65%) ATS since 1997 when coming off a home win where they scored 85 or more points. Take Washington! 

4* NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Kansas State -

The Wildcats shouldn't have any problem taking care of business at home against South Dakota. Kansas State is flying under the radar after last year's 15-17 campaign and that was evident by the fact that they were just a 4.5-point favorite at home against Columbia last time out. The Wildcats went on to win that game 81-71. Keep in mind that's a talented Columbia team that basically returns 5 starters with the players they got back from last year's injury plagued season. 

As for South Dakota, the Coyotes are a middle-of-the-pack at best team in the Summit League. They are coming off their first winning season in 4 years (17-16), but lost 3 starters , including two of their top scorers in Tyler Larson and Brandon Bos.

The big questions for the Wildcats coming into this season was whether or not senior Justin Edwards and junior Wesley Iwundu could make the kind of improvements in the offseason to get K-State back on track. So far they look to have answered the call. Iwundu is averaging 19.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg and 4 apg, while Edwards is right behind at 18.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg and 4.5 apg. 

South Dakota simply doesn't have the talent or experience to go on the road and compete with a power 5 team like Kansas State. The Coyotes have already lost to Wright State (69-77) and Northern Illinois (65-72) and barely held on to beat Cal State Northridge 76-72. Take Kansas State!

3* NCAAB Afternoon ATS Annihilator on Florida State -

While Hofstra is the favorite to win the Colonial, I don't think the Pride are going to be able to hang with a Florida State team that I believe is flying under the radar right now. The Seminoles are coming off a disappointing 17-16 season, where they went just 8-10 in the ACC, but they should be greatly improved with their top 6 scores (all 5 starters) back, as well as 8 players in total with starting experience. 

Not only does Florida State return a wealth of talent an experience, they landed a Top 10 ranked recruiting class, led by 6'7 combo guard/forward Dwayne Bacon and 6'5 guard Malik Beasley. It hasn't taken long for these two to make their presence felt. Bacon is averaging a team-best 25.0 ppg to with 8.5 rpg. Beasley is right behind him at 21.0 ppg. Sophomore point guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes (NBA potential) is enjoying the new additions, as he's averaging a near double-double with 12.0 ppg and 8.0 apg. 

Hofstra likes to get out an push the tempo, as they have scored 96 points in each of their first two games, but that's not going to work against a solid defensive team like Florida State. The Pride also aren't very good defensively (allowed Canisius to score 85 or 48% shooting). Seminoles will score at will and make more than enough stops to win here by double-digits. Take Florida State!

5* Iowa/Marquette NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Iowa -

The Hawkeyes will go on the road to take on a Marquette team that hasn't looked impressive at all in their first two games. The Golden Eagles lost their opener at home against Belmont 80-83 as a 6-point favorite and then barely squeaked by IUPUI 75-71 as a 13.5-point favorite. The same IUPUI team that just lost by 23-points last night at NC State (Wolfpack lost at home earlier this year to William & Mary).

Simply put this is not a good Marquette team. They went just 13-19 last year and lost a lot of key pieces from that team. Only 5 scholarship players returned and just 3 who averaged more than 20 minutes a game. Iowa isn't a great team by any means, but are an experienced bunch with 4 starters back from last year. The Hawkeyes have made easy work of their first two opponents, winning by 17 over Gardner Webb and 35 against Coppin State. Iowa played extremely well on the road last year and will not be intimated playing away from home against an inexperienced Golden Eagles team. 

Marquette is 1-8 over the last 3 seasons when listed as a home dog and are 0-7 ATS during this stretch as a home dog of 6 points or less and 0-7 ATS at home in the month of November. Take Iowa! 

4* Illinois/Providence NCAAB Heavy Hitter on Providence -

The Friars are worth a look at home tonight against the Fighting Illini. Providence got a good test in their opener against Harvard and won 76-64 as a 10-point favorite. They did so despite shooting just 39.7% from the field and allowing the Crimson to shoot 45.3%.

I look for the Friars to have a much stronger showing offensively here against an Illinois team that has really struggled defensively in their first two games. The Fighting Illini allowed North Florida to shoot 52.2% in a 81-93 home loss to open the season. They then gave up 74 points in a 6-point win at home against North Dakota State.

That's a bad sign for a team that will be playing their first road game of the season and facing arguably the best point guard in the country in Kris Dunn, who averaged 15.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg and 7.5 apg last year.

Keep in mind the Illini lost 4 key contributors from last year in Crosby (7.8 ppg) Egwu (6.5 ppg), Rice (16.5 ppg) and Starks (7.7 ppg). On top of that, Tracy Abrams was lost for the year in the summer and Jaylon Tate, Kendrick Nunn and Leron Black could all be out. Black is the only one with a chance to play, as he's questionable with a knee injury. 

Illinois is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 home games. Take Providence! 

4* Oklahoma/Memphis NCAAB Heavy Hitter on Oklahoma -

These two teams may appear to be evenly matched with Memphis having the home court edge, but I don't think that's the case at all. The Sooners are one of the elite teams in the country and should be able to over-power a Memphis program that looks to be on the decline. 

Oklahoma returns 4 starters, including the reigning Big 12 Player of the Year in Buddy Hield, who turned the opportunity to go to the NBA. He's going to be the best player on the floor in this game and that makes the Sooners an easy pick here for me with this relatively small spread.

Memphis has the looks of a team headed to the NIT at the end of the year. The Tigers went just 18-14 last year and the recruiting just isn't the same as it once was. While the Sooners get back their best player, Memphis lost leading scorer Austin Nichols and don't have anyone returning who averaged double-figures a year ago. 

Memphis doesn't rebound well, which is evident by the 21 offensive rebounds they gave up in their opener against Southern Miss. They aren't going to be able to score as easily in transition against the Sooners and Oklahoma won't give them 19 turnovers. 

Another thing I like here is the Sooners will be highly motivated in this game, as they are 0-6 in their 6 previous meetings with Memphis. It's also worth noting the Tigers are 1-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons when listed as an underdog and have lost these games by an average score of 58.7 to 71.9. Take Oklahoma! 

4* Virginia/G Washington ESPN2 ATS Annihilator on Virginia -

The Cavaliers don't get the type of respect they deserve based on their style of play, but head coach Tony Bennett once again has one of the top teams in the country. Virginia opened up their season with a dominating 86-48 win at home against Morgan State. They did so with top returning scorer, Malcolm Brogdown scoring just 5 points. 

While the Cavaliers lost Justin Anderson and Darion Atkins from last year's squad, they are a deep team and have added in a couple of physical big guys in freshman Jarred Reuter and Jack Salt (red-shirt last year). They also added transfer Darius Thompson from Tennessee and he started the opener and scored 12 points with 6 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals. 

George Washington is a middle of the pack team in the A-10 and are simply out-classed here by the Cavaliers. The Colonials only beat Lafayette by 9 at home in their opener. All but 2 of their 27 made field goals came inside the 3-point line. George Washington isn't going to get those easy looks inside against a stout Virginia defense. 

These two teams played last year and Virginia won 59-42 at home, as they held the Colonials to just 32.7% shooting from the field. The Cavaliers are 28-13 ATS in their last 51 road games with a total set at 129.5 or less and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning home record. George Washington is just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 against a team with a winning record and 3-13 ATS in their last 26 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Virginia! 

3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on UCLA -

After getting upset at home in overtime by Monmouth (81-84) in their opener, I look for the Bruins to come out and lay a beating on Cal Poly tonight. UCLA beat themselves more than anything against Monmouth. The Bruins had a 60-37 edge on the boards, but were careless with the basketball (23 turnovers) and shot just 37.7% from the field. 

Only reason we aren't seeing a bigger spread here is Cal Poly comes in off a strong showing at UNLV on Friday, losing 72-74 as a 6.5-point underdog. I just don't see them being able to match the intensity of UCLA in this spot. As long as the Bruins don't go ice cold from the field again, they should have no problem winning here by double-digits. 

Cal Poly hasn't exactly fared well after a close loss. In fact, they are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off a loss by 3 points or less. The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Big West Conference. Take UCLA! 

3* NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on VMI +

This is more of a fade of Penn State than it is a play on VMI. The Nittany Lions went just 18-16 overall and 4-14 in the Big Ten last year. Things figure to get worse this season, as Penn State loses their leading scorer and All-Big 10 guard D.J. Newbill, who averaged 20.7 ppg.

The Nittany Lions as a team only averaged 66.9 ppg. They also lose key contributors in John Johnson (7.4 ppg), Geno Thorpe (8.7 ppg) and Ross Travis (5.5 ppg). Combined that's well over half (42.3 ppg) of their scoring gone from last year. Penn State doesn't have anyone close to Newbill's talent and scoring is going to be tough for this team. 

VMI went just 11-19 last year, but are just 2 years removed from a 22-win season. Things just never went as planned last year. This is a team that likes to play fast. The Keydets averaged 81 ppg and should continue to be a force offensively this year. VMI gets back their leading scorer in QJ Peterson (19.6 ppg), as well as Tim Marshall (11.7 ppg) and Julian Eleby (11.1 ppg). The Keydets not only have the offensive fire-power to keep it close, but could pull off the upset. Take VMI! 

4* NCAAB Opening Night ATS Annihilator on Wisconsin -

This may seem like a lot of points for the Badgers to be laying after losing two NBA draft picks in Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker, as well as 3 other key pieces from last year's team that lost to Duke in the championship game, but I think we are going to see Wisconsin win here in a blowout. 

The Badgers get back two really good players in junior point guard Bronson Koening and junior forward Nigel Hayes. They also add in red-shirt freshman Ethan Happ, who got a lot of praise for his work on scout team last year (sat out because he knew playing time would be limited). Wisconsin also runs more of a system offensively that has proven they can plug in and produce. 

The other factor here that I like is head coach Bo Ryan has said this will be his last season. I think there's going to be some extra energy in the building for Ryan's last home opener. Most importantly, Western Illinois is a really bad team. The Leathernecks went just 8-20 last year and are the consensus pick to finish last in the Summit League. Take Wisconsin! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Belmont +

Marquette landed a big time recruiting class that has built up some excitement around this years team, but you have to keep in mind this is a team that went just 4-14 in the Big East last year and lost their leading scorer in Matt Carlino, as well as 3 other key contributors. The future is bright, but I believe it's going to take some time for these young kids to make a serious impact. 

Belmont on the other hand is a team that really came on strong last year, which included a win over highly-regarded Murray State in the championship game of the Ohio Valley Tournament. The Bruins would lose their first game as a 15-seed to Virginia, but they played the Cavaliers tough, losing by just 12 points (only trailed by 2 with just over 4 minutes to play). Belmont has 4 starters back, including their top 3 scorers. 

Experience is huge early in the year and I'll gladly take the 5-points here with the spread, but I think there's a good chance the Bruins win this game outright. Take Belmont! 

4* NCAA Championship Game Vegas Insider on Duke +

As impressive as the Badgers win over Kentucky was in Saturday's Final Four showdown, that's a win that can be extremely difficult to bounce back from in just a matter of two days. Beating the Wildcats was like winning the National Championship.

Duke on the other hand has cruised to the title game. Their closest game in the tournament was a 6-point win over Utah (63-57) and that wasn't as close as the final score would indicate. Another big factor here is that the Blue Devils went on the road and beat Wisconsin 80-70 in non-conference play and it could have been a lot worse. Duke shot 65.2% from the field, while limiting the Badgers to just 40.7%. Unlike Kentucky, the Blue Devils have the outside shooting and speed on the perimeter that can exploit the Badgers defense.

Duke is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 tournament games, 11-3 ATS in their last 13 road games after 2 straight wins by 10+ points, 6-0 in their last 6 road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 after 15+ games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or fewer ppg. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (36-8) system in favor of the Blue Devils. Take Duke!

5* Kentucky/Wisconsin Final Four No Limit Top Play on Kentucky -

Kentucky struggled against Notre Dame, while Wisconsin played their most impressive game of the tournament in their win over Arizona. I believe it’s created some great value on the Wildcats as a mere 5-point favorite. 

What a lot of people are over-looking is just how good a team Notre Dame is. Those that have followed the Irish closely all season, weren’t the least bit surprised to see them give Kentucky a major scare. Notre Dame does an excellent job of spacing the floor with a lot of great shooters. While Wisconsin is also an efficient offensive team that can spread the floor, they are essentially a 2-man show with Karminsky and Dekker. Kentucky is going to focus all their attention on stopping these two and I just don't think Wisconsin has enough around them to keep this close enough to cover.

You also have to take into consideration that Kentucky was in a bit of a letdown spot after their 39-point blowout win over West Virginia in the Sweet 16. Whether or not that was the case, that close call against the Irish will have the Wildcats 100% locked in on the Badgers.

It’s easy to fall in love with a team like Wisconsin, who is coming off an amazing performance and with a big revenge card from last year’s heartbreaking loss, but you can’t overlook the fact that the Badgers hadn’t played great in their first three tournament games and were extremely fortunate to get past North Carolina in the Sweet 16.

It’s not very often you will get a chance to back a team that’s 38-0 as a 5-point favorite. Unless you think the Badgers are going to win outright, I believe you have to take your chances with Kentucky to win here by 6 or more. Wildcats are 3-0 ATS this season when they have had 5 or 6 days of rest. Take Kentucky!

4* Stanford/Miami NIT Vegas Insider on Stanford -

I'll gladly back the Cardinal as a small favorite in the NIT Championship Game against a hobbled Miami team. The Hurricanes had already been playing without one of their best players in Angel Rodriguez and now will be without big man Tonye Jekiri, who suffered a concussion in Miami's semifinal win over Temple and has been ruled out. Jekiri is 3rd on the team in scoring (8.6 ppg) and tops in rebounding (9.9 rpg) and block shots (1.4 bpg). No one else on Miami averages more than 5 boards.

It's not like Miami has been dominating teams on their way to the title game, as their 4 NIT wins have come by a combined 16 points. In comparison, Stanford's 4 wins have come by a combined 34 points. The loss of Jekiri is going to not only open up the door for more offensive rebounds for the Cardinal, but it should allow them to dominate inside without him to protect the rim. Take Stanford!

4* Stanford/ODU NIT Vegas Insider on Stanford -

This is a great spot to fade Old Dominion, who has benefited in the NIT from getting to play all 3 of their games at home, where they haven't lost all season. I look for the big stage of Madison Square Garden to be too much for Old Dominion to overcome, while Stanford is much better prepared for the spotlight playing in the Pac-12.

One of the big keys here is that the Monarchs aren't near as good defensively on the road as they are at home. Old Dominion is holding opponents to 56.8 ppg and 39.8% shooting on the season, yet are allowing 62.1 ppg and 43.2% shooting on the road. Stanford is scoring a respectable 72.7 ppg and take good care of the basketball. They also shoot 72.5% from the free throw line and draw 20 fouls per game.

ODU is 9-24 ATS in their last 33 after 15+ games against strong rebounding teams that are outrebounding opponents by 4+ boards per game and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when having won 12 or more of their last 15. Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on the Cardinal, as neutral court favorites who are coming off a home win where they failed to cover as a favorite and playing with 5 or 6 days of rest are 103-56 ATS since 1997. That's a 65% system in favor of the Cardinal. Take Stanford!

4* Michigan St/Louisville Elite 8 No Brainer on Michigan State -

I've been much more impressed with the Spartans 3 wins over Georgia, Virginia and Oklahoma than that of Louisville, who has faced the likes of UC Irvine, UNI and NC State. Michigan State has been a completely different team down the stretch and it all started in the Big Ten Tournament, which saw them knock off Ohio State and Maryland before a crushing over-time loss to Wisconsin in the title game.

Neutral court favorites who have committed 11 or fewer turnovers in each of their last 2 games against an opponent that turned it over 8 or less times in their last game are 115-63 (65%) ATS since 1997. Adding to this is the fact that Michigan State is 9-2 ATS in their 11 road games this season against teams that average 12 or less turnovers. Spartans are also 20-9 ATS in their last 29 after 15+ games versus teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse and 12-3 in their last 15 during this stretch against team that have won 60% to 80% of their games. These three trends combine to form a 75% (41-14) system in favor of the Spartans. Take Michigan State!

4* Arizona/Wisconsin Elite 8 ATS Massacre on Arizona -

I just haven’t been impressed with how Wisconsin has been playing up to this point in the tournament and I think their run will come to an end Saturday against the Wildcats. I think Arizona expected to just show up and walk all over Xavier, while Wisconsin was simply outplayed for the majority of their contest against North Carolina.

The Wildcats haven’t forgot about last year’s heartbreaking 63-64 overtime loss to the Badgers in the Elite 8. I expect them to have a much better game plan for Karminsky, who shredded them for 28 points on 11 of 20 shooting. No other player for Wisconsin had more than 10 points.

Offensively, Arizona has struggled to get going in their last couple of games and you might think they are in trouble against a good Wisconsin defense, but the Badgers don't create a lot of turnovers, which is key. The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after 15+ games against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers and have averaged 82.8 ppg in these matchups. Arizona is also 14-5 ATS in their last 19 after 15+ games against teams that are allowing 64 or less points/game. These two systems combine to form a 79% (23-6) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Arizona!

3* NC State/Lou East Region ATS Annihilator on Louisville -

The fact that NC State is an underdog in this game considering they just knocked off a No. 1 seed in their last game and won at Louisville in the only matchup during the regular season, is a clear as sign as you are going to get that the experts like the Cardinals to advance to the Elite 8.

I can't say that I was in love with this Louisville team coming into the tournament, as I just didn't think they had enough offense to go with their strong defense. That's not near as big of a concern with the way sophomore guard Terry Rozier has been shooting the ball. Rozier has scored 37 points on 13 of 23 (57%) shooting and is also doing a great job of getting the rest of his team in involved with 12 assists. Much like Wichita State coming off their big win over Kansas, I think it's going to be tough for NC State to bounce back with the same intensity they had in their game against Villanova.

Louisville is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games after 15+ games against teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers and 13-4 ATS in this same stretch against teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers. Cardinals are also 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games played in the month of March and 31-18 ATS in their last 49 road games off a SU win. These trends combine to form a strong 69% (74-34) system in favor of the Cardinals. Take Louisville!

5* UCLA/Gonzaga Vegas Insider Top Play on UCLA +

While I'm not confident the Bruins will have enough to pull off the upset, it wouldn't come as a huge surprise. Either way we are getting some great value here with UCLA at this price. . I know Gonzaga went on the road and beat the Bruins by 13-points (87-74) earlier this season in non-conference play, but this is not the same UCLA team that struggled early in the year.

The Bruins only loss over their last 7 games is a 64-70 defeat to Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament, which is one of only two losses for Arizona by single digits in their last 14 games.

Another big factor here that has me siding with UCLA, is I think this line has been inflated based on how well Gonzaga looked in their win over Iowa. Chances are the Bulldogs aren’t going to shoot 60% or better from the field and behind the 3-point line in back-to-back games and could actually come in a bit over-confident given they already beat the Bruins once this season.

UCLA is 13-3 ATS this season after 15+ games against a team with a winning record and have won these contests by nearly 5 ppg. Adding to this is that they are 7-0 ATS during this same stretch against teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field and 7-1 ATS versus teams allowing 64 or less. Gonzaga is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after a game where they made 55% or more of their shots and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 80+ in 2 straight games. These trends combine to form a strong 85% (35-6) system in favor of the Bruins. Take UCLA!

5* UNC/Wisconsin Sweet 16 No Limit Top Play on Wisconsin -

There’s no denying that the Badgers haven’t played up to their potential so far in the tournament, which I believe has them undervalued and primed for a big time performance against a North Carolina team that is fortunate that their season isn’t already over. Keep in mind that last year the Badgers came out in their Sweet 16 matchup and laid it on Baylor 69-52.

This comes down to the fact that the Badgers are the better team and 6-points is a favorable number to lay on the better team in this spot, especially when you factor in that the Badgers as a team shoot 76% from the foul line. Wisconsin is also the much better defensive team in this one. The Badgers are allowing 56.8 ppg against teams averaging 69.2, while the Tar Heels are giving up 68.6 ppg against teams averaging 69.7.

The Tar Heels will likely have an edge on the glass, but I don't think it will be as big as some are anticipating, especially with Kennedy Meeks (7.4 rpg) sidelined or not playing at 100%. Badgers are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games against teams who average 40+ rebounds/game and we also see a strong system here going against North Carolina. Teams who are outrebounding their opponents by 6+ rebounds against an opponent that is outrebounding teams by 3-6 rebounds/game after 15+ games and on a neutral court are just 9-33 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin!

3* Wichita St/ND Sweet 16 ATS Annihilator on Notre Dame +

I think we are seeing an overreaction here with this line. Wichita State is coming off a big win over Kansas, while Notre Dame has advanced to the Sweet 16 on a couple of close calls. I like this shockers team, but it wasn't a big surprise to see them beat the Jayhawks. Let's not forget they struggled to get by Indiana in the first round, who went just 9-9 in the Big 10. Notre Dame has won 7 straight, which includes their run to the ACC Tournament title.

One of the hidden factors here that I don't think is getting overlooked is that the Irish have a huge motivational chip on their side, with head coach Mike Brey losing his mother. I look for this team to come out an do everything in their power to win this game for their coach. Not to mention the Irish can't be all that pleased about being listed as the underdog.

Irish are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning record, while Shockers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. These trends add up to form a strong 76% (22-7) system in favor of the Fighting Irish. Take Notre Dame!

5* CIT Game of the Year on Eastern Illinois +

The Panthers should not be a home dog here against the Purple Aces. Eastern Illinois is happy to be playing in the CIT, as this is a team that hasn't enjoyed a whole lot of postseason success. This becomes that much more important to them playing at home.

Eastern Illinois showed how much they wanted to be a part of this tournament with a 97-91 win at Oakland in their CIT opener, while Evansville did just enough to get back IUPU-FW in their opener. One of the big keys here is that the Purple Aces rely a lot on getting to the foul line, where they are averaging 17 makes a game. The Panthers are only allowing 16 free throw attempts a game at home. They also have been a much stronger defensive team at home compared to on the road. Opponents shot just 36.5% from the field and 30.9% from long distance at Eastern Illinois this season.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Underdogs that are giving up 63-67 ppg against an opponent that is allowing 63-67 ppg, that have allowed 75+ in 2 straight games are 213-138 ATS since 1997. That's a massive 61% long-term system in favor of the Panthers. Take Eastern Illinois!

3* UNI/LOU Late Night ATS Bailout on UNI -

The Panthers might be the worse seed, but they are the better team and favored in this one for a reason. While both of these teams are strong defensively, UNI has a huge advantage here on the offensive end. The Panthers are shooting 48.3% from the field, which is the 16th best mark in the country, while Louisville ranks 211th in that same category at 42.9%. Not to mention the Cardinals have struggled even more on the offensive end since losing Chris Jones, who was averaging 13.7 ppg. It's also worth noting that UNI made easy work of a very good Wyoming defense in the opening round, while Louisville struggled to get by UC Irvine.

UNI is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 against a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Louisville on the other hand is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team that's won more than 60% and 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (61-19) system in favor of the Panthers. Take UNI!

5* WV/MD NCAAB Round of 32 Game of the Year on Maryland -

I think the books have made a huge mistake here listing the Terrapins as a mere 1-point favorite against the Mountaineers. West Virginia just isn't that strong a team on the road and I loo for them to really struggle to keep it competitive against Maryland. The Terrapins have a dynamic backcourt of Dez Wells and Melo Trimble, who aren't going to be intimidated by West Virginia's pressure and that's really all the Mountaineers have going for them. You also can't overlook the fact that the Big 12 has been a huge disappointment in the tournament, as the conference clearly wasn't as strong as people thought.

West Virginia is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games after 15+ games against teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 versus teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against the Big Ten. Maryland is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 tournament games. These trends combine to form a strong 81% (48-11) system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland!

4* Virginia/Michigan St NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Virginia -

Virginia isn't getting near enough respect here against the Spartans. I know Justin Anderson isn't at full strength and that Michigan State eliminated the Cavaliers in last year's tournament, but I think this is playing into the value here for Virginia.

The Spartans are playing as well as they have all season, but I just don't think this is a good matchup for them, especially with revenge playing a key role. This is no where near as good a Michigan State team that beat Virginia last year and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Cavaliers won this one going away.

While Virginia failed to cover their opening round game against Belmont, they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games off a no cover in a win as a favorite. They are also 21-9-2 ATS in their last 32 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 versus the Big Ten. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (35-12) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Virginia!

4* Utah/Georgetown NCAA Tournament Vegas Insider on Utah -

It might come as a bit of a surprise to see Utah laying 4-points against the lower-seeded Hoyas, but I think the books are spot on with making the Utes the favorite. Chances are that Wright and Taylor will be a much bigger factor after their poor showing against the Lumberjacks, while it's unlikely the Hoyas will be able to replicate their 50% shooting from the field, especially their 48% shooting from long distance. Utah is one of the better defensive teams in the country. They held opposing teams to just 38% shooting on the season, including just 31.2% from behind the 3-point line.

With their win over Stephen F Austin, Utah improved to 21-6-2 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral site. It's also worth noting that the Utes are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games against a team that's won 60% to 80% of their games, while the Hoyas are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 off a cover. Take Utah!

3* Ohio St/Arizona West Region Main Event on Ohio St -

I know the Wildcats are playing as well as any team in the country right now, but I think it has them a bit overvalued in this matchup against Ohio State. I also think the fact that Ohio State is coming off an overtime game and their lackluster record away from home against elite teams is playing into this inflated line.

The thing you have to remember is that the Buckeyes are a much better team than No. 10 seed that they received and you can never count out a team that has a player as gifted as Russell, especially getting 9.5-points. As good as Arizona's defense has been, great offense will beat great defense and I believe Russell keeps the Buckeyes within striking distance throughout. An outright win isn't out of the question either. Arizona has been sent home from the NCAA Tournament by a Big Ten team each of the last two years.

Favorites that have covered the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, who have won 80% or more of their games are just 68-114 ATS over the last 5 seasons versus strong teams that have won 60% to 80% of their games. That's a 63% system in favor of the Buckeyes. Take Ohio State!

5* UAB/UCLA NCAA Tournament No Limit Top Play on UCLA -

The perception here is that the Bruins got lucky in their win over SMU, while UAB outplayed a much better Iowa State team. The public is going to be to quick to jump on the points and take the Blazers, but I actually think the value here is with UCLA. Keep in mind we had a similar scenario last year, where No. 14 Mercer upset Duke in their first game, only to lose by 20-points to No. 11 seed Tennessee in their next game.

The fact that UCLA won convincingly over this team early in the year (88-76, led by 16 at half) is also a good sign, as that came back when the Bruins weren't playing well at all. This team might have had a questionable resume overall, but you can't discount how well they are playing right now. The Bruins have won 5 of 6 with their only loss being a 6-point defeat to Arizona. I'll take my chances on the Blazers not being able to live up to the hype created by their big win over the Cyclones.

Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 4 or more consecutive wins that are seeded 13 thru 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 18-46 ATS since 1997. That's a 72% system in favor of the Bruins. Take UCLA!

3* Davidson/Iowa South Region Vegas Insider on Iowa -

Unlike last year when the Hawkeyes stumbled down the stretch and ended up losing to Tennessee in the play-in game, Iowa enters the NCAA Tournament playing their best basketball of the season. I know they lost at Penn State, but for whatever reason that’s a team they struggled with even during the regular season. Iowa certainly won’t be looking past Davidson after that loss and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawkeyes won here in a blowout.

While the Wildcats feature an explosive offense that comes in averaging 79.9 ppg, they are not a strong defensive team and don’t shoot the ball nearly as well on the road as they do at home. Iowa has a ton of length that is going to give Davidson fits on both sides of the ball.

The Hawkeyes are 21-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons after 15+ games against teams who average 21 or more 3-point attempts/game and have won these contests by an average of 10.4 ppg. We also find a strong system in play here, as teams from a major conference against a team from a second tier conference that are off an upset conference loss as a favorite are 61-27 ATS since 1997. That's a 69% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

5* NCAA Tourn 2nd Round Game of the Year on Oregon -

I didn't think Oklahoma State deserved to be in the field and I certainly haven't changed my opinion after watching the Big 12 fail to show up in Thursday's game. The Cowboys went just 8-10 inside conference play, closed out the season 1-6 over their final 7 games and played a cupcake non-conference schedule.

On the flip side of this, the Pac-12 came to play with Arizona, UCLA and Utah all cashing in a victory on Thursday. Outside of Arizona, who is one of the elite teams in the country, Oregon closed out the season playing the best basketball of any other team in the Big 12. The Ducks won 11 of their last 13 to quietly finish 2nd in the conference standings with Utah, who they beat twice during their stretch run.

Oklahoma State is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games away from home against a strong team that has won 60% to 80% of their games and just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games away from home in the month of March. Oregon on the other hand is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when listed as a favorite on a neutral court. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (39-8) system in favor of the Ducks. Take Oregon!

4* Wyoming/UNI NCAA Tournament Heavy Hitter on UNI -

Northern Iowa is a lot better than the No. 5 seed that the received and I look for the Panthers to come out and make a statement here against Wyoming. UNI is talented enough to win the East Region, yet no one is really talking about them as a threat. Wyoming has a big time playmaker in Larry Nance Jr, but UNI has one of the top defenses in the country, giving up the 4th fewest points in the country at 54.3 ppg.

I look for the Panthers to come in with a gameplan to stop Nance and without him scoring close to 20, I just don't see Wyoming being able to keep this respectable. Keep in mind that the Cowboys managed just 42 points in a non-conference loss to Cal, who isn't exactly known for their defense (ranked 193rd).

UNI is 13-3-3 ATS in their last 19 games overall, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 against a team with a winning record and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games played on a neutral site. These three trends combine to form a strong 75% (48-16) system in favor of the Panthers. Take UNI!

4* LSU/NC State NCAA Tournament Heavy Hitter on NC State -

Sure the SEC was improved this year compared to previous seasons, but it wasn't anywhere close to that of overall strength of the ACC. Going 10-8 in the ACC is a lot better than finishing 11-7 in the SEC. I know LSU lost by just 2-points at home to Kentucky, but the also lost at home by 15 to Tennessee and got ousted in their first SEC Tournament game by Auburn.

I also think NC State is a better team than their 10-8 record would indicate. They had some hiccups against bad teams where they didn't show up to play, but this a team that beat Duke by 12-points, won at Louisville by 11, and won at UNC by 12. They also had several close calls, losing at Virginia by 10, at home to Notre Dame by 3 (OT), at home to Virginia by 4 and at home to North Carolina by 2.

I know the Wolfpack lost by 24 to Duke in the ACC Tournament, but that's a good thing for backing them in this game, as they are a perfect 10-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons off a loss by 10 or more points. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games played on a neutral site and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. LSU on the other hand is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on a neutral site and 1-4 ATS in their last 6 vs the ACC. These trends combine to form a 79% (52-14) system in favor of the Wolfpack. Take NC State!

5* Ohio State/VCU No Limit Top Play on Ohio State -

The Buckeyes are a much better team than the No. 10 seed that they received and I look for them to come out looking to make a statement against VCU. The Rams are a quality team that got hot on their way to winning the A-10 Tournament, but they have not been the same team since losing Briante Weber to a season-ending injury.

Even with Weber the Rams didn't stack up against elite competition from the other power conferences, as they go rolled on a neutral court by Villanova 53-77 and at home by Virginia (57-74). Senior Shannon Scott and freshman sensation D'Angelo Russell are going to have no problem picking apart VCU's press and that's really all the Rams have going for them.

It's going to allow a Buckeyes team that isn't great in the halfcourt to get a lot of easy baskets in transition and I look for them to runaway with this game and win here by double-digits. Take Ohio State!

3* Northeastern/Notre Dame Early Bird ATS Annihilator on Notre Dame -

This Notre Dame team for whatever reason is flying under the radar and I look for them to come out and lay a beating on Northeastern. The Fighting Irish closed out the year playing their best basketball. They won 8 of their last 9, including 5 straight, which included an impressive run to the ACC Tournament title. This is a team that beat Duke and North Carolina twice to go along with impressive non-conference wins over Michigan State and Purdue.

All 5 of their wins during their current 5-game winning streak came by at least 7 points, including a 10-point win over the Blue Devils. I look for them to have no problem winning here by 12+ against a Northeastern team that lost by 14 points to Harvard. Not to mention the Huskies only went 12-6 in weak Colonial Conference, so this isn't your typical small-school powerhouse.

Notre Dame is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games off 2 or more consecutive wins and have won these contests by an average of 10.0 ppg. The Irish are also 12-2 ATS in their last 14 after leading in their previous 3 games by 5+ points at the half and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last last 4 neutral site games. These trends add up to form a dynamite 86% (25-4) system in favor of the Irish. Take Notre Dame!

5* Ole Miss/BYU Vegas Insider Top Play on BYU -

While BYU has a history of not playing up to their potential away from home, that hasn't been the case for the 2014-15 season. The Cougars pulled off a huge upset on the road against Gonzaga recently on Feb. 28. They also had painfully close losses on a neutral setting against San Diego St (87-92 OT) and Purdue (85-87 OT).

It's also important to note that BYU closed out the season playing some of their best basketball, winning 8 of their last 9 games, with the only loss coming against Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament. Ole Miss gets a lot of respect for their near upset win at Kentucky, but in reality this team wasn't all that impressive in SEC play. They finished 11-7, but were just 1-6 against conference opponents who made the NCAA Tournament. They also come in having lost 4 of their last 5.

The Rebels are just 3-11 ATS over the last 2 seasons after 15+ games against strong teams that have won 60% to 80% of their games and a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after 4 straight games where they forced 14 or fewer turnovers. BYU has covered the spread 57% of the time since 1997 when listed as a favorite and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games after failing to cover the spread in their most recent game. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (27-6) system in favor of the Cougars. Take BYU!

4* UConn/Tulsa AAC Vegas Insider on Connecticut -

The Huskies are showing some great value here as a mere 2-point favorite against Tulsa. Connecticut is once again hitting their stride when it matters the most and I look for them to have no problem getting past the Golden Hurricane an advancing to the American Athletic title game. The Huskies lost at Tulsa 58-66 in the first meeting, but came back with a dominating 70-45 win at home in the rematch. I'm not expecting that big of a blowout, but I do think the Huskies will win here comfortably. 

Connecticut is 39-17 ATS in their last 56 neutral site games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following a game in which they covered the spread and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win. These trends combine to form a strong 71% (55-23) system in favor of the Huskies. Take Connecticut!

5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Maryland -

The Terrapins are showing some exceptional value here as a 2-point home favorite against the Hoosiers. Indiana comes in off a big 71-56 win over Northwestern, but prior to that this team had really been slumping. With the Hoosiers at a disadvantage here in rest and talent, I just don't see them keeping this one close. 

Maryland closed out the regular season on a 7-game winning streak and lost just 5 times all season. While the Terrapins did lose by 19-points at Indiana and won by just 2-points at home over the Hoosiers, I think that works in their favor here, as it will have them 100% focused on the task at hand.

Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following a game where they covered the spread, while Maryland is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 neutral court games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 tournament games. These trends combine to form a strong 81% (25-6) system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland!

4* Penn St/Purdue Big 10 Vegas Insider on Purdue -

The Nittany Lions will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days after yesterday's upset win over Iowa, where the Hawkeyes essentially gave the game away. I look for Penn State's run to come to a crashing end this afternoon against the Boilermakers, who received a double-bye and will be playing their first game in 5 days.

Adding to this is the fact that Purdue won at Penn State 84-77 in the only meeting between these two teams in the regular season. The Boilermakers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 against a team with a winning record and we have a strong system in play going against the Nittany Lions. Neutral court underdogs who are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 75+ against and opponent off a home win where they won outright as a favorite are 37-83 ATS since 1997. That's a 69% system in favor of the Boilermakers. Take Purdue!

5* Big 10 Game of the Month on Ohio State -

The Golden Gophers come in off a 12-point win over Rutgers in the opening round of the Big 10 Tournament, but that's nothing to get excited about. Minnesota had gone just 1-5 over their previous 6 games and I just don't see them keeping pace with the Buckeyes, who they lost at home in the only meeting during conference play. Ohio State has a big edge here playing with 3 days of rest, while Minnesota will be playing on no rest.

The Gophers are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when revenging a straight up loss to an opponent , 5-11 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning SU record and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win. Ohio State on the other hand is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games off a contest where they failed to cover the number. These trends combine to form a 76% (39-12) system in favor of the Buckeyes. Take Ohio State!

4* USC/UCLA Pac-12 Tournament Vegas Insider on UCLA -

This is a perfect spot to back UCLA, who is coming into this game off a full week of rest, while Florida State had to use a ton of energy yesterday in their 67-64 win over Arizona State, erasing a 14 point lead with just 9 minutes to play. Not only are the Trojans going to be playing with tired legs, they are outmatched big time in this one. UCLA won by 17 at USC on Jan. 14 and later won by 11 at home on March 4.

The big reason we aren't seeing a larger spread here is due to the fact that the Trojans have covered three straight and 4 of 5 overall. USC is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after covering the spread in 4 of their last 5. UCLA is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off a home win, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after a game where they shot 50% or better from the 3-point line and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games overall. These trends combine to form a strong 80% (39-10) system in favor of the Bruins. Take UCLA!

3* C-USA No Doubt Rout on Old Dominion -

The Monarchs come into this game having won 6 straight, all of which have come by at least 9 points. That includes a 19-point win over C-USA regular season champs Louisiana Tech. The only reason Old Dominion isn't favored by more is because they lost 58-68 at Middle Tennessee in the only meeting between these two teams. The thing to keep in mind is that the Monarchs lost in overtime after the Blue Raiders hit a game-tying shot with less than 10 seconds to play in regulation.

Old Dominion certainly hasn't forgot about that loss and given their recent form I see no reason why they won't win here by at least 7 points. Keep in mind that Middle Tennessee is a bad spot here playing on no rest after a hard fought win and cover yesterday against Charlotte.

Monarchs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off a home blowout win by 20 or more points, 12-4 in their last 16 after allowing 55 points or less and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after a SU win. Middle Tennessee is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win, 5-14 ATS in their last 19 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 road games after winning 2 of 3. These trends combine to form a strong 84% (51-10) system in favor of the Monarchs. Take Old Dominion!

3* Cal/Arizona Pac-12 Main Event on Arizona -

This is a lot of points to be laying in a conference tournament, but Arizona is one team that I'm comfortable backing in this spot, especially when you consider how the Wildcats had their way with Cal during the regular season. Arizona went on the road and beat the Golden Bears by 23-points and followed that up with a 39-point win at home.

So much attention is being paid to Kentucky for their perfect record, but I think Arizona has been equally impressive. The Wildcats are 28-3 with their 3 losses coming by 4-points or less, all of which came on the road.

Cal is just 2-8 ATS this season against teams who are making 45% or more of their shots and have lost these contests on average by 15 points/game. Arizona on the other hand is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record and have won these by an average of 20 points/game. Wildcats are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against a team that attempts 18 or fewer free throws per game and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 after a win by 10+ points. These trends combine to form a strong 83% (33-7) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Arizona!

4* Air Force/Boise State MWC Tournament No Brainer on Boise State -

The Broncos are actually showing some great value here as a mere 10-point favorite against the Falcons. Boise State won 67-42 at home over Air Force and 77-68 on the road. It's important to note that the Broncos were a 9.5-point favorite at home, which tells us that they should be laying at least 12.5 on a neutral floor.

Not only did Boise State win at Air Force, they were an exceptional road team all season, going 11-6 away from home. The Falcons on the other hand were a mere 3-11 on the road. I expect that to translate well into the Broncos favor here.

Air Force is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 revenging a loss of 10 or more points and just 2-9 ATS after 15+ games against a team with a winning record,  while Boise State is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after 15+ games against teams who are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game and perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after covering 3 of their last 4. These trends combine to form a strong 85% (34-6) system in favor of the Broncos. Take Boise State!

5* No Limit NCAAB Top Play on Louisville +

The Cardinals are showing some great value here as an underdog against the Tar Heels. North Carolina is getting a lot of love here off that big 81-63 win over Boston College yesterday, but you can't overlook the fact that the Tar Heels are playing on no rest, which is a big factor in these conference tournament games. This is an even bigger concern with the uncertainty of the status of starting forward Kennedy Meeks.

On top of that, Louisville comes into the ACC Tournament off arguably their biggest win of the season, as they held on for a 59-57 win at home over then No. 2 Virginia. Montrezl Harrell was the difference in that win over the Cavaliers and when he's playing at that kind of a level, Louisville is difficult to beat.

The Cardinals are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games off a conference home win, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games when they come in having won 3 of 4 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference tournament games. North Carolina is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after 15+ against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. These trends add up to form a strong 83% (45-9) system in favor of the Cardinals. Take Louisville!

4* Iowa/Penn State Big Ten MoneyMaker on Iowa -

The Hawkeyes come into the Big 10 Tournament on an absolute tear, having won 6 straight. Out of those 6 wins, 5 came by at least 8 points and I look for Iowa to have no problem winning here by at least 8 over the Nittany Lions, who I look to struggle to bounce back after yesterday's hard fought 68-65 win over Nebraska.

The Hawkeyes didn't play anywhere close to their potential in their lone meeting at Penn State and still managed to come away with a 4-point win. That near upset will have Iowa ready for the task at hand. While the Nittany Lions have won two straight (both by 3-points), they are just 2-6 in their last 8 overall and are simply not a deep enough team to excel on no rest.

Iowa is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 after allowing 30-points or less in the first half of 2 straight games,  26-14 ATS in their last 40 after 15+ games against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 overall. Penn State on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. These trends add up to form a 73% (64-24) system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

3* Early Bird Conference Tournament Annihilator on Virginia -

I have no problem laying this big number on the Cavaliers in their opening game of the ACC Tournament. After losing their regular season finale at Louisville, Virginia is going to come out pissed off and extra motivated to make sure that they don't go into the NCAA Tournament off back-to-back losses.

I expect the Cavaliers to take care of business and take advantage of Florida State team that is playing on no rest after yesterday's 61-52 win against Clemson. The Seminoles had lost 3 straight prior to that victory, including a 22-point home loss to Louisville and 10-point defeat at Virginia. The Cavaliers won by double-digits over Florida State, despite going just 1-11 (9.1%) from long distance and just 14-27 (51.9%) from the free throw line.

Seminoles are just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 after 15+ games against elite teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game, while Virginia is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 after a game where they failed to cover the spread, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record. These trends add up to form a 77% (58-17) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Virginia!

4* Villanova/Marquette Big East Vegas Insider on Villanova -

The Wildcats are a team on a mission and have more than just a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament to play for. Villanova has had a bad run in the Big East tourney and will be out to make a statement in New York. The Wildcats are hands down the best team in the Big East and I look for them to have no problem disposing of Marquette, who is in a difficult spot here playing on no rest after yesterday's 78-56 win over Seton Hall.

That win may look impressive, but the Golden Eagles had no answer for the Wildcats in their two regular season meetings, losing by 18 at Villanova and 11 at home. Marquette is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a SU win by more than 20 points. Villanova on the other hand is a ridiculous 36-16 ATS in their last 42 against the Big East, 18-5 ATS in their last 23 against a team with a losing record and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a SU win by more than 20 points. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (67-21) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Villanova!

5* ACC Game of the Month on Miami -

It might not seem like it given the double-digit spread, but we are actually getting some great value here on the Hurricanes as a 10-point favorite against the Hokies. Miami was an 11.5-point home favorite in a 76-52 blowout win over Virginia Tech in the regular season. That line indicates we should have expected to see the Hurricanes closer to a 14-15-point favorite on a neutral setting.

You also have to keep in mind that Miami followed up that big blowout win at home with a 82-61 win at Virginia Tech in their home finale/senior day. Needless to say the Hurricanes have the Hokies number and with a spot in the NCAA Tournament likely on the line, I look for Miami to answer the call and win here convincingly.

Virginia Tech is just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning SU record. Miami is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 80+ points in their last game and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 after a game where they hit 50% or more of their 3-point attempts. These trends combine to form a strong 73% (37-14) system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami!

3* BC/UNC ACC Tournament Main Event on UNC -

The Tar Heels are going to come out extremely motivated after losing their regular season finale at home to in-state rival Duke and have a big advantage here against the Eagles, as Boston College is going to have a difficult time bouncing back on no rest after a gut wrenching 66-65 win over Georgia Tech in the opening round of the ACC Tournament last night.

While the game is being played on a neutral court, it's going to feel like a home game for the Tar Heels and I look for them to have no problem leaving here with a double-digit win. North Carolina won 79-68 at BC in the only meeting during the regular season and have won each of the last 4 meetings by at least 11 points.

UNC is 59-27-1 ATS in their last 87 games following a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral site and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a losing SU record. These trends combine to form a solid 71% (69-28) system in favor of the Tar Heels. Take North Carolina!

3* Horizon Tournament ATS Main Event on Valparaiso -

The Crusaders are showing some great value here as a mere 3-point home favorite against Wisconsin-Green Bay in the Horizon Conference Tournament Championship Game. Valparaiso ended up beating the Phoenix by just 4-points at home during the regular season, but they led in that game by as many as 13-points.

The big key here is that Green Bay relies heavily on senior guard Keifer Sykes, who is averaging a team-best 18.9 ppg. Sykes totaled just 18 points in the two games against the Crusaders, including just 7-points at Valparaiso. The Crusaders clearly have a good understanding of how to keep Sykes in check and without him playing at a high level, I just don't see the Phoenix being able to keep this one close enough to cover.

Valparaiso is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games with a line of +3 to -3, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing against a team with a winning record and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 against teams who force 14 or less turnovers per game. Green Bay on the other hand is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after 15+ games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or less points/game. These trends combine to form a 78% (42-12) system in favor of the Crusaders. Take Valparaiso!

3* Summit Conference Tourn Vegas Insider on South Dakota St -

I'm backing the Jackrabbits in this one, as they have a big edge here against their in-state rivals. While South Dakota won the most recent meeting 80-64 at home, they also lost by 14-points at South Dakota State and most importantly will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set.

The Coyotes upset IUPU-Ft Wayne 82-73 as a 3-point dog, but are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 after a game where they covered the spread. The Jackrabbits on the other hand are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a winning record, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a SU win and 16-5 in their last 21 overall.

We also find a strong system backing South Dakota State. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a same season loss, playing their 2nd road game in 3 days are 87-45 ATS since 1997. That's a strong 66% system in favor of the Jackrabbits. Take South Dakota State!

4* Penn St/Minn Big 10 Vegas Insider on Minn-

This game doesn't mean anything to Penn State, who will likely have their attention turned to the Big 10 Tournament. While Minnesota also needs to run the table in the tournament to get to the Big Dance, I look for them to come out extremely motivated on senior day, as they have five seniors playing their last regular season home game.

Penn State has lost 6 straight and haven't exactly been all that competitive of late on the road, losing by 21-points at Northwestern and 20-points at Ohio State. It's also worth noting that the Golden Gophers hosted the Nittany Lions in their home finale last year and cruised to a 81-63 win.

The Nittany Lions are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against a marginal winning team that's won 51% to 60% of their games and just 2-14 ATS in their last 16 after a game where they made 20% or worse from behind the 3-point line. These two trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (23-3) system in favor of the Golden Gophers. Take Minnesota!

4* Duke/UNC ACC ATS No Brainer on UNC -

The Tar Heels will be out for revenge from a crushing 90-92 loss at Duke earlier this season and I expect them to get it. North Carolina comes in all business, as they followed up a 73-64 win at Miami with a 81-49 blowout win at Georgia Tech.

Duke secured the No. 2 spot in the ACC Tournament with their 94-51 win over Wake Forest on Wednesday and as big as a game as this is, I could see a young Blue Devils team not being 100% invested. Jahlil Okafor, Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, Justise Winslow and Grayson Allen are all dealing with ankle injuries and their focus could be more on staying healthy for a run in the ACC and NCAA Tournament. It also helps that they won that first meeting.

Duke is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 off a game where they covered the spread and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by 20+ points.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are fresh off a 30+ point win against an opponent that scored 80 or more in their last game are 92-48 ATS since 1997. That's a 66% long-term system backing a play on the Tar Heels. Take North Carolina!

4* Kansas/Oklahoma Big 12 Vegas Insider on Oklahoma -

Kansas already has the Big 12 regular season title locked up, but that's not the only thing working against the Jayhawks in this one. Kansas has recently loss Cliff Alexander (eligibility), will also be without the services of Perry Ellis (knee) and Wayne Seldon Jr is playing at less than 100% (ankle). Even at full strength and a Big 12 title on the line, the Jayhawks would have had a difficult time winning on the road against the Sooners.

As for the Sooners, they aren't going to care who takes the floor for Kansas, as I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder after blowing a 20+ point lead in a loss at Iowa State in their most recent game. Adding even more value here is that this will be the final home game of the season and the Sooners are a dominant 13-1 on their home floor this year.

Jayhawks are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games off a conference win and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 on the road after 15+ games against a team with a winning record. Oklahoma is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games off a SU loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games when revenging a loss where they scored 75+ points. These trends combine to form a strong 80% (53-13) system in favor of the Sooners. Take Oklahoma!

3* LSU/Arkansas SEC Situational ATS Smash on LSU +

While Arkansas will be motivated in their home finale, LSU is going to be the more desperate team given how much they need a big road win to strengthen their NCAA Tournament resume. I know the Razorbacks are a strong 16-1 at home, but I believe that has them overvalued in a game that I look to go down to the wire. LSU is a respectable 8-5 on the road and while they just lost by 15-points at home to Tennessee, that was their only defeat all season by more than 7-points.

Arkansas has made easy work of the bottom half of the league at home, but they have struggled to pull away against some of the better teams. The Razorbacks only beat Texas A&M at home by 6, Tennessee by 5, Alabama by 2 and lost outright to Ole Miss.

LSU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and 4-0 in their last 4 games played on Saturday. Arkansas on the other hand is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team that's won 60% or more of their games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a SU win. These trends combine to form a strong 89% (31-4) system in favor of the Tigers. Take LSU!

5* Alabama/Texas A&M SEC Game of the Month on Texas A&M -

I have no problem laying this number on the Aggies at home against an Alabama team that is no where close to as good as their 17-13 record would indicate. The Crimson Tide are just 5-9 in their last 14 games and have not beat a conference opponent who currently has more than 5-wins inside SEC play since opening up with back-to-back wins over Texas A&M and Tenn way back in early January.

Alabama has been especially bad on the road against some of the better teams of late, losing most recently at Vanderbilt by 7, LSU by 11 and at Kentucky by 15. Texas &M will not only be out for revenge, but will be playing their home finale. The Aggies are 13-2 at home and will be looking to send out seniors Kourtney Roberson and Jordan Green with a win.

Texas A&M is 28-13 ATS in their last 41 home games when listed as a favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, 44-27 ATS in their last 71 when revenging a road loss of 10+ points and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after playing their previous game as a road dog. Alabama is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played on Saturday. Take Texas A&M!

3* Michigan St/Indiana Early Bird Big 10 Annihilator on Indiana +

With Indiana coming off an ugly 7-point road loss at Northwestern and 14-point home loss to Iowa in their last two games, along with the fact that they lost by 20-points at Michigan State earlier this season, this line is begging for you take the Spartans as a small road favorite. I'm not taking the bait, as I think the value here is with the Hoosiers, who are going to come out with one of their best efforts of the season given their two-game losing streak and this being their home finale.

The Spartans were able to hold on to beat Purdue 72-66 at home in their last contest, but failed to cover the 6.5-point spread, setting up a profitable spot to fade them. Michigan State is just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games off a SU win as a favorite where they didn't cover the number. We also see that Indiana is 27-10 ATS in their last 37 home games with a line of +3 to -3 and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. These trends combine to form a strong 79% (48-13) system in favor of the Hoosiers. Take Indiana!

4* NCAAB Ohio Valley Oddsmakers Error on E Kentucky -

Belmont comes in off a 97-64 blowout win over Eastern Illinois last night in their first game of the Ohio Valley Tournament. The Bruins took advantage of an Eastern Illinois team that was playing on rest and I look for Eastern Kentucky to do the same against the Bruins, as the Colonels received a double-bye.

Eastern Kentucky closed out the regular season 8-1 over their final 9 games, while their only loss during this stretch was a 61-66 loss at Belmont, that revenge is a key factor into taking the Colonels this time around. Not to mention Eastern Kentucky cruised past the Bruins 81-69 at home.

Favorites of 14.5 or more points in the 3rd meeting of a season, who are playing on extended rest against an opponent on no rest and off a cover in their last game are 10-1 ATS since 2012. That's a 91% system in favor of the Colonels. Take Eastern Kentucky!

3* Bradley/UNI Missouri Valley ATS No Brainer on UNI -

UNI and Wichita State are a class above the rest of the Missouri Valley Conference and I look for the Panthers to open up tournament play with an easy win over the Braves. Not only is Bradley greatly outmatched in terms of talent, but they are at a big disadvantage here playing on no rest after opening up the tournament last night with a hard fought 52-50 win over Drake.

UNI is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or fewer points/game and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games away from home against a slow-tempo team that averages 53 or fewer shots per game.

Adding to this is that favorites of 14.5 or more points in the 3rd meeting of a season, who are playing on extended rest against an opponent on no rest and off a cover in their last game are 10-1 ATS since 2012. That's a 91% system in favor of the Panthers. Take UNI!

4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS Dominator on Wichita State -

UNI and Wichita State are a class above the rest of the Missouri Valley Conference and I look for the Shockers to open up tournament play with an easy win and cover over the Salukis. Not only is Southern Illinois greatly outmatched in terms of talent, but they are at a big disadvantage here playing on no rest after opening up the tournament last night with a hard fought 55-48 win over Drake. This is an even bigger edge for the Shockers given that this is an early start time.

Southern Illinois is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 when listed as an underdog. Wichita State is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 away from home against a team with a losing record.

Adding to this is that favorites of 14.5 or more points in the 3rd meeting of a season, who are playing on extended rest against an opponent on no rest and off a cover in their last game are 10-1 ATS since 2012. That's a 91% system in favor of the Shockers. Take Wichita State!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Belmont -

Belmont comes into the Ohio Valley Tournament with a lot of confidence, as the Bruins closed out the regular season on a 4-game winning streak. While Eastern Illinois was able to knock off SIU-Edwardsville 78-66 in the opening round, they were just 4-7 over their last 11 games down the stretch and I look for them to struggle to keep pace with Belmont.

The fact that the Bruins are favored by 5.5-points after losing on the road to the Panthers 73-84 back on Jan. 10, says a lot about what the books think of this Belmont team. The big key here is that SIU is built on their defense and I look for them to struggle to bring the intensity on that side of the ball playing with no rest.

The Panthers are just 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 games against a team with a winning record and neutral court teams that are revenging a SU loss as a favorite after 3 or more consecutive covers as a favorite are a ridiculous 24-4 ATS since 1997. That's a dynamite 86% system in favor of the Bruins. Take Belmont!

5* Ohio Valley Game of the Year on Tenn-Martin +

While the Skyhawks narrowly escaped with a 75-72 overtime win at home against Morehead State in the only regular season meeting, they should not be an underdog against the Eagles in the Ohio Valley Tournament. Tennessee-Martin has a huge advantage here with rest, as they haven't played since Feb. 28, where Morehead State will be playing on no rest after yesterday's 79-74 win against SE Missouri State.

The Eagles are simply being overvalued due to the fact that they come in having won 4 straight and covered each of their last 5. The key thing to keep in mind is that 4 of those wins came against bottom feeders, who finished with a losing record inside Ohio Valley action.

Morehead St is a mere 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU win, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Skyhawks lost their finale against conference champ Murray State and are a strong 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 77% (41-12) system in favor of the Skyhawks. Take Tennessee-Martin!

4* Oregon St/Oregon Pac-12 Late Night Bailout on Oregon St +

I believe we are getting some big time value here with the Beavers as a home dog. This line has been inflated in favor of the Ducks, due to the fact that Oregon has gone 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 games, while Oregon State is just 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6.

The important thing to keep in mind is that 4 of the Beavers 5 losses have come on the road and the other was their only home loss of the season against Utah. Oregon State is 15-1 at home and I don't see them losing their home finale on senior night.

Oregon is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games when they come in having won 8 or more of their last 10, while Oregon State is a dominant 23-8-2 ATS in their last 33 home games, 13-4 ATS off two or more consecutive losses and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games with a line of +3 to -3. These trends add up to form a 75% (61-20) system in favor of the Beavers. Take Oregon State!

5* MWC Game of the Month on San Diego State -

The Aztecs come into this game off an ugly 46-56 home loss to Boise State as a 7.5-point favorite and I believe it has them showing some great value here as a mere 4.5-point favorite against the Rebels.

As you would expect with a well coached team like the Aztecs, San Diego State has responded very well coming off a loss. The Aztecs have not lost consecutive games once all season and are a strong 5-2 ATS in their last 7 off a double-digit loss at home. UNLV comes in off an impressive 69-57 win at Wyoming, but are just 3-4 over their last 7 overall and a mere 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after playing their last most recent contest as a home favorite.

San Diego State is 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games with a total of 120 to 129.5 points and are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games after 5 straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers. Most importantly here, UNLV is a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games against strong defensive teams who are holding opponents to 39% or worse from the field. These trends combine to form a 77% (44-13) system in favor of the Aztecs. Take San Diego State!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi St +

The Bulldogs are showing some great value here as a double-digit road dog against the Commodores. Mississippi State is simply being undervalued due to the fact they come in off a 18-points loss at home to Kentucky and 13-points loss at South Carolina in their last two games. Losing by nearly 20-points at Kentucky shouldn't come as a surprise and neither should a poor showing after playing the No. 1 team in the country.

Prior to their two most recent losses, Mississippi State had just 1 loss in their previous 12 games by more than 6-points, which included a 57-54 win at home over Vanderbilt as a 4-point underdog. During that 12-game stretch the Bulldogs went an impressive 8-4 ATS, including a perfect 2-0 when listed as a dog of 10+ points.

Vanderbilt is also be overvalued due to the fact that they have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. That actually sets up a great spot to fade the Commodores, as they are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 when having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after failing to cover last time out and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 76% (28-9) system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State!

4* Clemson/NC State ACC Game of the Week on NC State Pick'em

NC State has been one of the more difficult teams to figure out, as they can look like one of the top teams in the ACC one game and then look like a bottom feeder the next. The Wolfpack followed up a 3-game winning streak which included road wins at Louisville and North Carolina and a 16-point win at home versus Virginia Tech with an ugly 63-79 loss at Boston College this past Saturday.

I believe that loss has NC State in a prime spot to bounce back and take advantage of a Clemson team that is just 2-4 in their last 6 with the two wins coming against bottom feeders in Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. It's also worth noting that the Wolfpack will be playing with revenge from a 57-68 loss at home to the Tigers back on Jan. 28.

NC State is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games off an upset conference loss, a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss to a conference opponent by 10 or more points and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 when revenging a same season loss. These trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (30-4) system in favor of the Wolfpack. Take NC State!

5* Pitt/Wake Forest No Limit Top Play on Wake Forest +

The Demon Deacons come in riding a 3-game losing streak and are just 3-8 over their last 11 games. Their recent 3-game slide shouldn't be all that surprising, two came against Virginia and the other was on the road at Notre Dame. Their only other home loss during the 3-8 stretch was against North Carolina. Wake Forest should not be a home dog to the Panthers, but are simply being undervalued here after losing by 36-points at home to Virginia.

An ugly loss like the Demon Deacons just suffered against the Cavaliers, typically leads to a big bounce back performance, especially at home. Wake Forest is 48-30 ATS in their last 78 off a loss by 15+ points. Pittsburgh is only 5-8 on the road and just 3-8 ATS, which shows that the Panthers have consistently been overvalued away from home.

The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a home win, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 30 points or less in 2 straight games, 1-11 ATS off a win where they failed to cover the spread and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. These trends combine to form a dynamite 94% (34-2) system in favor of the Demon Deacons. Take Wake Forest!

5* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Utah -

The Utes are showing exceptional value here as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Wildcats. The value here is largely due to the fact that Arizona is the higher ranked team and that they won convincingly at home against the Utes 69-51. The big key here is that Utah has been a completely different team at home than on the road. The Utes are a perfect 16-0 SU and 11-4 ATS at home, where they are outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 26.1 ppg.

Utah is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games played on Saturday, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after a game where they shot 57% or better from the field and held their opponent to 43% or worst. 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when playing a top level team that's won 80% or more of their games and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games after 15+ games against teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points game. These trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (37-5) system in favor of the Utes. Take Utah!

4* North Carolina/Miami ACC Vegas Insider on Miami +

The Hurricanes should not be a home dog to the Tar Heels. North Carolina was embarrassed at home 46-58 last time out and are just 2-5 over their last 7 games. Miami on the other hand has won 3 of 4 and are starting to play more like the team that got off that great start. Angel Rodriguez is the spark that gets the Hurricanes going and he's coming off one of his best shooting performances in a while. Rodriguez connected on 8 of 14 attempts for 25 points in Miami's most recent victory against Florida State. Another key factor here is that Miami has won 4 straight over the Tar Heels. which adds to value we are getting with them as a home dog.

The Tar Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after 15+ games against teams who have won 60% to 80% of their games, while Miami is 18-8 ATS in their last 26 when listed as an underdog, 18-8 ATS in their last 26 off a home win and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 80+ points in their last contest. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (52-18) system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami!

3* Michigan/Maryland Early Bird Main Event on Michigan +

While both of these teams are coming off big wins at home over some tough competition, Maryland's win over Wisconsin is considered a much bigger feat than the Wolverines upset of Ohio State at home. That's created some solid value here with the Wolverines catching near double-digits against the Terrapins, who are in a major letdown spot after laying everything on the line in that game against the Badgers.

Michigan is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off an upset win over a conference rival as a underdog of 6 or more points and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after playing their last contest as an underdog. Maryland is just 3-11 ATS this season when listed as a favorite and just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. These trends combine to form a 80% (40-10) system in favor of the Wolverines. Take Michigan!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Rutgers +

We are seeing a huge overreaction here with this spread, due to the fact that the Boilermakers have gone an impressive 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games. The key thing to note about this stretch is that only 3 times during this stretch was Purdue favored by more than 3 points and the most they were favored was by 7.5 at home against Nebraska.

Rutgers is without a doubt the worst team in the Big Ten and come in having lost 11 straight since that unthinkable home upset win against Wisconsin. They are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games, which adds to the inflated line in this matchup. While Rutgers has had some ugly losses of late, they only lost by 10-points at home to Purdue back on Feb. 12, despite scoring just 16 points in the 1st half and shooting a mere 33.3% on the game.

The big key here is this is not a game the Boilermakers are going to be all that motivated for. They come in off a huge 67-63 win over in-state rival Indiana and have two big road games on deck against Ohio State and Michigan State.

Rutgers is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after two straight contests with 12 or less assists, plus we find a huge system in play. Road underdogs who have failed to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against an opponent that has covered the number in 8 or more of their last 10 are 32-11 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 74% system in favor of the Scarlet Knights. Take Rutgers!

3* Arizona/Colorado Pac-12 Main Event on Colorado +

The Buffaloes have a history of playing elite teams tough at home and I will gladly take my chances on Colorado as a double-digit dog at home against Arizona. Colorado is just 1-5 both SU and ATS in their last 6 games, which is aiding in this inflated line on the Wildcats.

The big key here is the situation heavily favors the Buffaloes. Arizona is going to have a difficult time getting up for this game. The Wildcats already beat Colorado by 14-points at home earlier this season and are in a huge letdown spot following a big home game against UCLA and an even bigger game at Utah on deck Saturday. Arizona has just a 1-game lead over the Utes in the Pac-12 standings.

Colorado is 60-39 ATS in their last 99 games against teams who are making 48% or more of their shots, 32-17 ATS in their last 49 after 15+ games versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after failing to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. These trends combine to form a strong 64% (102-58) system in favor of the Buffaloes. Take Colorado!

3* Illinois/Iowa Big Ten Main Event on Illinois +

This is a great spot to fade the Hawkeyes, who are being overvalued here due to the fact that they come in off back-to-back blowout wins over Rutgers (81-47) and Nebraska (74-46). It's a similar scenario to what we saw earlier this month. The Hawkeyes cruised to wins over Michigan (72-54) and Maryland (71-55), only to lose at home to Minnesota 59-64 as a 6.5-point favorite next time out.

Adding to the inflated line here is that Illinois comes in off back-to-back losses to Wisconsin (49-68) and Michigan State (53-60). Prior to these two defeats, the Fighting Illini had won 4 straight. I don't know that they will be able to pull off the outright upset, but I look for them to have no problem covering the spread in what figures to be a closely contested game that comes down to the wire.

Illinois is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games off 2 or more consecutive losses, plus we find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Hawkeyes. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 15+ games, who are an average shooting team (42.5% to 45%) against a poor shooting team (40% to 42.5%) after a game where they held their opponent to 33% or worse from the field are just 11-36 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Fighting Illini. Take Illinois!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Florida St +

The Seminoles are showing big time value here as a 7.5-point dog against the struggling Hurricanes. Miami has dropped 5 of their last 8 games, which includes a 20-point home loss to Georgia Tech. This team has lost its confidence and I look for them to struggle to play up to their potential off a heartbreaking 53-55 loss at Louisville last time out.

Florida State on the other hand, has been gaining momentum down the stretch. The Seminoles did lose their last game, but there's nothing to be ashamed about a 10-point loss on the road against Virginia. Overall the Seminoles have won 6 of 10 and that loss the Cavaliers is their only defeat during this stretch by more than 6-points.

Miami went into Florida State earlier this season and built up a 36-25 halftime lead, only to lose 54-55. That sets up the Hurricanes in favorable system to fade. Home teams with just two returning starters who are revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or less are just 223-339 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a massive 60% system in favor of the Seminoles. Take Florida State!

5* Big East Game of the Month on Marquette +

The Golden Eagles are showing some great value here as a 9.5-point underdog against the Bulldogs. Marquette went on the road and gave Villanova a run for their money in a 76-87 loss, despite playing without two of their best players in Matt Carlino and Juan Anderson. Both were close to returning for that game, which is a good sign that they will be back for this contest.

Even if Carlino and Anderson are both sidelined, I still like the Golden Eagles to keep this one close enough to cover the big spread. Butler was fortunate to escape with a 72-68 overtime win at Marquette earlier this season. The Bulldogs rallied from a double-digit deficit in the final 5 minutes. Andrew Chrabascz played a big role in that win, scoring a career-high 30 points, but he won't be available for this one, as he's out 2-4 weeks. In their first two games without Chrabascz, Butler barely won 58-56 at Creighton and got rolled at Xavier 56-73.

Marquette is just 3-8 SU on the road, but are a strong 8-3 ATS. Not only is this a great spot for them to cover, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. The Golden Eagles are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points and 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games when revenging a home loss.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off a home game where both teams scored 75+ points against an opponent off a road loss by 10+ points are 59-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of the Golden Eagles. Take Marquette!

4* Kentucky/Miss St ATS Heavy Hitter on Miss St +

Oddsmakers have drastically inflated this line in favor of the Wildcats, creating huge value here on the Bulldogs as a massive home dog. Kentucky is one of the biggest public bets out there and are simply being overvalued here due to covering three straight.

Mississippi State has been playing much better of late, despite the fact that they are just 1-4 in their last 5 games. During this stretch the Bulldogs have had heartbreaking losses at home to Alabama (51-55), Ole Miss (65-71) and Arkansas (61-65). Their lone win was a 77-74 victory at Missouri, who was only a 17.5-point underdog at home to the Wildcats

Mississippi State is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 when they come in having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6, 34-19 ATS in their last 53 home games off 2 or more consecutive losses, a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games off a loss by 6-points or less and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 8+ ppg. These trends add up to form a 71% (62-25) system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State!

4* Indiana/Northwestern Vegas Insider on Indiana -

The Hoosiers are showing some great value here as a slim road favorite against the Wildcats. Indiana is still trying to secure their ticket to the big dance and simply can't afford a loss here to Northwestern. Very similar scenario to their last game, which saw them go on the road and annihilate Rutgers 84-54.

The big reason we are getting such great value here with the Hoosiers, is the fact that Northwestern has came out of nowhere to win 3 straight. Prior to this stretch the Wildcats had lost their previous 10 conference games. Northwestern followed up four straight covers earlier this season with a 23-point home loss to Wisconsin and recently followed up 3 straight covers with a 8-point home loss to Purdue.

Last time out the Wildcats rolled to a 60-39 home win over Penn State, but that sets them up in a bad spot. Northwestern is a mere 2-14 ATS in their last 16 home games off a conference home win. They are also a mere 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons in home games against teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers per game. These two trends combine to form a 91% (20-2) system in favor of the Hoosiers. Take Indiana!

3* Boise St/New Mexico Late Night Bailout on New Mexico +

This may seem like a favorable spot to back Boise State at home, given how they have dominated on their home floor and the fact that they won by 10-points at New Mexico (69-59) earlier this season, but I think the value here is with the Lobos.

The Broncos come in off a blowout win at home against Nevada (78-46) and have a huge game on deck at San Diego State, which could end up deciding who wins the Mountain West regular season title. Perfect scenario for Boise State to suffer a bit of a letdown at home against an opponent they can't be all that concerned about.

Boise State is just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 after playing their previous game as a home favorite, while New Mexico is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams who average 12 or fewer turnovers and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road underdogs who have failed to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against an opponent that has covered the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 are 32-10 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Lobos. Take New Mexico!

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Maryland +

The Terrapins are showing some great value here as a home underdog against the Badgers. Wisconsin essentially has the Big Ten regular season title wrapped up, as they have a 3-game lead with just 4 games left to play. This game means a lot more to Maryland, who would be in prime position to finish 2nd in the conference with a win.

Wisconsin isn't going to lay down for the Terrapins, but there's certainly reason to believe the Badgers could struggle to leave College Park with a win. Maryland is a dominant 16-1 at home with their only loss coming to Virginia way back on Dec. 3.

One of things that gets overlooked with the Badgers impressive 25-2 record is that they have played a soft schedule in true road games. Inside conference play their 6 road games have come against the likes of Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Penn State, who are all in the bottom 8 of the standings. I don't think there's any question that this is the toughest road game the Badgers will have played all season and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they lost outright.

Maryland is 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games and are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games off 3 straight conference wins. We also see that teams who have won 18 or more of their last 20 games that are playing their 3rd game in a week span are just 44-75 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 63% system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland!

4* Kansas/Kansas St Big 12 ESPN No Brainer on Kansas St +

The Wildcats are showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against their in-state rivals. Kansas State is being way undervalued here due to the fact that they have lost 7 of their last 8. Keep in mind that 5 of those 8 came on the road.

Kansas' only two road wins inside conference play by more than the number listed here have come against Texas Tech and Texas. The Jayhawks barely escaped with wins at Baylor (56-55) and TCU (64-61), while losing on the road to Iowa State, Oklahoma State and West Virginia.

This isn't the first time Kansas has been overvalued on the road and those that have faded the Jayhawks away from home in a similar spot have enjoyed some nice profits. Kansas is a mere 6-15 ATS over the last 3 seasons when listed as a road favorite and just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games after winning 12 or more of their last 15 games. Adding to this is the fact that Kansas State is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 after failing to cover the number in 2 of their last 3 games and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 against teams who have won 80% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (60-19) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Kansas State!

4* Indiana/Rutgers Big Ten Game of the Week on Rutgers +

Rutgers is showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Hoosiers. Indiana is a completely different team on the road than they are at home, as they are just 3-7 away from home on the season. They are just 1-5 on the road inside Big Ten play and I just don't see them turning this into a blowout.

Rutgers has had a difficult time in their first go of things in the Big Ten, but they have been competitive at home. A big key here is the Scarlet Knights lost by just 8-points at Indiana earlier in the season. Not only is that a good sign that they can keep it close enough to cover, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won this game outright and put an end to their 10-game losing streak.

Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Rutgers!

3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on Weber State +

The Wildcats are showing some great value here as a decently priced road underdog against Montana. Weber State was able to snap a short two-game losing streak with a 74-71 win at Montana State and won't have to travel far to take on the Grizzlies, who they already beat at home earlier this season 68-60.

While Montana is a strong 10-3 SU at home, they are typically overvalued at home where they are just 5-5-1 ATS. That's especially been the case of late, as the Grizzlies are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 at home. Weber State on the other hand is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Montana shot a ridiculous 59.2% from the field in their last game, yet only managed to beat a bad Idaho State team at home by 10-points. Adding to this is the fact that the Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after a contest where they shot 55% or better from the field. That's a perfect 100% system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Weber State!

4* Atlantic 10 ATS Vegas Insider on George Washington +

The Colonials are going to come out extremely motivated after suffering a heartbreaking 63-65 home loss to Davidson last time out. George Washington is also being way undervalued here due to having lost 6 straight against the spread, while Richmond comes in off a 15-point road win over St Bonaventure as a 1-point underdog.

The key here is that George Washington beat Richmond at home earlier this season 73-70, plus they won 73-65 in their last road game against the Spiders. Prior to their big win over St Bonaventure, Richmond had gone just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, which included a mere 2-point home win Fordham and a 5-point home loss to Rhode Island.

The Spiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record, a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less in their last contest and are just 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games against a strong defensive team that is holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. These trends combine to form a 74% (37-13) system in favor of the Colonials. Take George Washington!

5* Big 12 Game of the Year on West Virginia +

The Mountaineers snapped out of their recent funk with a huge 62-61 home win over Kansas and I look for them to carry over that momentum on the road against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State isn't exactly coming in with a lot of confidence, as they followed up a 15-point road loss at TCU with a 65-70 home defeat to ISU.

While the Cowboys have been strong at home this season, West Virginia is a respectable 10-3 on the road and I look for them to come out extremely motivated given their recent bad losses on the road to ISU (59-79) and Oklahoma (52-71).

Oklahoma State is just 12-26 ATS over the last 3 seasons when facing a team with a winning record after 15+ games and just 8-19 ATS when their opponent in this spot is outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. Cowboys are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on Saturday and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 after 2 straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds. These trends combine to form a 66% (64-27) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Elon +

The Phoenix are showing some great value here as a decently priced road underdog against Delaware. Elon is simply being undervalued here due to the fact that they are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS over their last 7 games.

The Blue Hens are just 8-18 overall and are fortunate to even have 8 wins. Delaware's 11-point home win over UNC Wilmington in their last contest was their first win all season by more than 6-points. Adding even more value here is the fact that Elon won convincingly at home over the Blue Hens 94-82 back on Jan. 24. I'll gladly take my chances on the Phoenix keeping this one close enough to cover and wouldn't be surprised at all if they won this game outright.

There's also a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have went over the total by 54 or more combined points in their last 10 games, who have won just 20% to 40% of their games on the season are 76-32 ATS since 1997. That's a 70% system in favor of the Phoenix. Take Elon!

4* Early Bird NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Seton Hall +

This may seem like a good spot to fade Seton Hall with leading scorer Sterling Gibbs expected to sit this one out because of a suspension, but I actually think it has the Pirates showing some great value here.

When a team loses their best player, it can be difficult for their opponent to take them as seriously as they should and I expect the Red Storm to do just that, especially given the fact that Seton Hall enters having lost 5 straight. St John's also isn't coming into this one all that confident after an ugly 22-point loss at Georgetown.

The Pirates are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 road games of 2 straight conference losses, 17-6 ATS in their last 23 off a blowout loss by 20 or more points and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games after a loss by 15+ points. St John on the other hand is just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games after a game where they shot 33% or worse from the field.

Adding to this is a strong system. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 10+ points, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a team with a winning record are 104-60 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 63% system in favor of the Pirates. Take Seton Hall!

5* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Oregon State +

The Beavers are showing some tremendous value here as a decently sized home dog against the Utes. While Utah has the stronger overall and conference marks, Oregon State is a perfect 14-0 at home, which includes wins over the likes of Arizona St, Arizona and UCLA. This could very well be where their home winning streak comes to an end, but I don't see them losing here by more the spread.

It's not just this season where the Beavers have played well at home. They are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 home games overall. Oregon State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against excellent teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field and holding opponents to 42% or worse. The Beavers do come into this game off back-to-back road losses at UCLA and USC, but are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following two or more consecutive defeats. These trends combine to form a 80% (43-11) system in favor of the Beavers. Take Oregon State!

3* Small Conference Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas St +

This may seem like a favorable spot to back Arkansas-Little Rock at home, considering they won 75-65 on the road at Arkansas State back on Jan. 29, but I think the value here is with the Red Wolves. Arkansas State actually had a 13-point lead early in that game, but were done in by the hot shooting of Josh Hagins, who had a career-high 28 points on 10 of 13 shooting.

Couple other things from that first meeting that favor the Red Wolves being more competitive the second time around, is the fact that Arkansas State had a 39-28 edge on the boards and committed a season-high 19 turnovers. The Red Wolves should be able to maintain their advantage on the glass and take much better care of the basketball with a better understanding of how Little Rock is going to attack them defensively.

It's also worth noting that Arkansas State has actually played better on the road than at home. The Red Wolves are 6-7 SU and 7-5 ATS on the road, compared to 3-7 SU and 2-6 ATS at home. Arkansas State is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after playing their previous game on the road, while the Trojans are just 2-10 ATS when they come in having covered 2 or more consecutive games.

Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, revenging a loss of 10 or more points, who have won 20% to 40% of their games, playing a team with a losing record are 156-98 ATS since 1997. That's a 61% system in favor of the Red Wolves. Take Arkansas State!

3* Colorado/Oregon Late Night ATS Bailout on Colorado +

The Buffaloes are showing some great value here as a 6-point dog against the Ducks. Colorado snapped a 3-game losing streak with an impressive 64-58 home win over Stanford on Sunday, while Oregon lost 63-72 at UCLA on Saturday.

The Ducks are just 5-8 ATS inside conference play and I think this is too many points for them to be laying at home against a Colorado team that has had their number of late. The Buffaloes have won and covered in each of the last 4 meetings in the series, which includes a 48-47 win as a 7-point dog in their last trip to Eugene.

Colorado is 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games after a combined score of 125 or less points in their last contest, while Oregon is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. These trends combine to form a strong 71% (35-14) system in favor of the Buffaloes. Take Colorado!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Missouri +

Arkansas comes into this game having won 7 of their last 8 and have covered the spread in each of their last 5. Missouri on the other is riding an 11-game losing streak and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5. All this adds up to the books drastically inflating this line in favor of the Razorbacks. Keep in mind that Arkansas was just a 6.5-point favorite at Missouri and were fortunate to win that game 61-60, as the Tigers missed two free throws with just 3.3 seconds left.

There's no question that Missouri feels like they should have won that game and will use that loss as a huge motivator for this matchup. While I don't think the Tigers will have what it takes to keep it close enough to have a chance to pull off the upset, they should have no problem covering this massive spread.

Home favorites of 10 or more points who have covered the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, who have won 80% or more of their games against a team that's won just 20% to 40% of their games are a mere 9-30 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Tigers. Take Missouri!

5* UNC/Duke In-State Rivalry Game of the Month on UNC +8.5

I know the Tar Heels aren't coming into this game playing their best basketball, but this is too many points for a team as talented as North Carolina to be catching in arguably the biggest rivalry in college basketball. The Tar Heels have dropped 3 of their last 4, but a couple of those can be credited to poor effort. They blew a 18-point lead in a loss at Louisville that snapped a 6-game winning streak and last time out they allowed Pittsburgh to shoot 65% from the field.

A lack of effort won't be an issue against the Blue Devils and most importantly I think North Carolina matches up extremely well with Duke. They have a talented front line to throw at Okafor and the athleticism on the outside to keep up with the Blue Devils guards.

History is also on the Tar Heels side, as North Carolina has gone an impressive 13-4 ATS in their last 17 trips to Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Tar Heels are also 17-3 ATS in their last 20 off an upset loss as a road favorite and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games played in the month of February. These trends combine to form a 79% (44-12) system in favor of the Tar Heels. Take North Carolina!