Sports Picks & Predictions

5* West Coast Conf Game of the Month on Gonzaga -

The Bulldogs are going to be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 67-70 loss at St Mary's earlier this season. Gonzaga managed to lose that game, despite shooting 59% from the field, as they blew a 8-point halftime lead. I look for the Bulldogs to have another strong showing offensively, expect this time they keep their foot on the gas and turn this into a blowout. 

Gonzaga has gone a strong 11-3 at home this season and will be taking the floor at home for the final time in the regular season. That only adds to the energy and focus for this matchup and I just don't see St Mary's being able to keep pace. 

Gaels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win. Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games when playing on 1 day of rest. Take Gonzaga! 

4* NCAA Big Chalk No Doubt Blowout on Arkansas -

The Razorbacks come into this game having lost 3 straight, including an ugly 86-90 home loss to Auburn as a 16.5-point favorite last time out. This not only has Arkansas showing tremendous value at home against a bad Missouri team, but we can expect to see one of their best efforts of the season tonight. 

Arkansas is 11-3 at home on the season and it's well known that the Razorbacks have one of the strongest homecourt advantages in the SEC. That a key factor here, as Missouri has gone a miserable 0-11 away from home this season, with a 0-6 record on the road inside SEC play. The closest the Tigers have come to a road win is a 9-point loss at Georgia and 9-point defeat at Alabama. 

Missouri is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after winning 2 of their last 3, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games off a road win and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 off a win by 6 or less points. Razorbacks are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games off 3 straight conference losses. Take Arkansas! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Shocker on Texas A&M -

The Aggies are showing great value here as a pick'em at home against the Wildcats. It wasn't that long ago Texas A&M was ranked inside the Top 10, but a 4-game losing streak now has this team flying under the radar, as most are going to look to back Kentucky riding a 4-game winning streak. 

The key thing you have to keep in mind is that almost all of Texas A&M's struggles have come on the road (lost 4 straight away from home). This has been a different team at home, where they are 14-1. I still believe this Aggies team is one of the most talented teams in the country and this is a game where we can expect to see Texas A&M lay everything they have on the line against the Wildcats. 

Texas A&M is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after a contest where they made 78% or more of their free throws and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games against at team with a losing road record. Kentucky is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4. Take Texas A&M! 

4* Early Bird NCAAB ATS No Brainer on South Carolina -

South Carolina is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Gators. The Gamecocks come into this game off back to back losses, losing by 27-points at home to Kentucky and then a shocking 67-72 loss at Missouri. That sets up South Carolina in a prime bounce back spot at home against a Florida team that is just 5-7 away from home and 1-4 ATS in their last 5. 

Prior to getting embarrassed at home by Kentucky, the Gamecocks had opened up a perfect 13-0 at home. This line is simply not giving South Carolina the respect they deserve. The Gators are just 2-4 on the road in SEC play and the two wins have come against Ole Miss and Georgia, nothing to get excited about. 

Florida is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 after a game with a combined score of 115 or less. South Carolina is 2-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 or less and 1-0 ATS this season after 2 straight games where they shot 37% or worse from the field. All this adds up to a perfect 18-0 system in favor of the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina! 

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on Washington + 

The Huskies are showing great value here as a home dog against the Golden Bears. Washington is going to be highly motivated in this spot, as they have lost 3 straight. Nothing to be ashamed about those defeats, as they lost at home to Arizona by 5-points, at Utah by 8 and at Colorado by 1. 

While Washington is being undervalued due to their recent slide, Cal is being overvalued after winning 3 straight. The key thing to keep in mind with the Golden Bears surge is all 3 wins came at home. Cal is just 1-8 on the road this season with a 0-5 record away from home in league play. Washington on the other hand has a strong home court edge, as they are 10-4 at home. 

Huskies are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 after 3 or more consecutive losses, 14-6 ATS in their last 20 against a team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Cal is 1-7 ATS this season in road games against a team that's won between 60% and 80% of their games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after 3 straight games forcing an opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers. Take Washington! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Washington State +

The Cougars come into this game having lost 11 straight games, while Stanford just pulled off a huge 76-72 upset win over Oregon as a 6.5-point dog. Most will be looking to jump on the Cardinal in this spot, but I think it's a perfect time to jump on Washington State. While the Cougars have lost 5 straight at home, they have been competitive in a lot of those losses, including a  4-point defeat to Washington and 5-point loss against Colorado. Keep in mind this is the same Washington State team that knocked off UCLA at home 85-78. 

This is arguably the Cougars last legit shot at getting a win, as they host Cal next and then play their last 3 on the road. I'm expecting max effort here from Washington State. At the same time, this is a tough spot for the Cardinal. They are in a huge letdown spot after that big win over Oregon and have really struggled on the road, where they are just 2-6 on the season. 

Stanford is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning record and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after going over the total in their previous game. All this adds up to a perfect 16-0 system favoring the Cougars. Take Washington State! 

4* Colorado/USC Late Night Vegas Insider on USC -

I really like the Trojans to make easy work of the Buffaloes at home tonight. USC is going to come out extremely focused after dropping back-to-back road games against Arizona and Arizona State and will be out for some serious revenge against Colorado, who they have lost 7 straight to in the series. 

Colorado comes in off back-to-back wins over Washington State and Washington, but both wins came at home, where the Buffaloes are now 14-1 on the season. Colorado is just 5-6 away from home and 2-4 on the road inside the Pac-12. That includes a 14-point loss at Cal and 20-point defeat at Oregon.

Buffaloes also could be without their best player in Josh Scott, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Scott leads the team in both scoring (16.7 ppg) and rebounding (9.1 rpg). Even if he plays, I look for him to be limited. 

It's also important to note that USC has a huge homecourt advantage, as they are 14-0 at home this season, where they are winning by an average of 17.7 ppg. Their only conference home game in which they haven't won by 10 or more points was against Arizona. 

Colorado is just 2-9 ATS over their last 11 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after 15+ games against a team that's averaging 77 or more ppg. Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning record and 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 home games overall. Take USC! 

5* NCAAB AAC Game of the Month on Houston -

The Cougars are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Green Wave. Houston comes into this contest playing their best basketball of the season, as they have won 5 of their last 6 with the only loss coming on the road against a very good Tulsa team. 

The reason we are catching a good number with Houston here is due to the fact that Tulane comes in off a huge 94-87 overtime win at home against Memphis as a 7-point dog. As impressive as that win is, the Green Wave are still just 3-10 inside the American and the other two wins have come against the likes of South Florida and East Carolina, who are a combined 5-22 in league play. 

Houston won 63-45 at home over Tulane earlier this season and didn't play close to their best game, as they shot just 41% from the field and 14.3% from behind the 3-point line. We can expect better shooting this time around and a similar edge on the boards (+18 previous meeting), which should lead to an easy win here.

It's also important to note that the fact that Tulane just pulled off the upset helps us here. Not only does it put the Green Wave in a big letdown spot, but it adds some focus that might not have been their for Houston. 

Tulane is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 conference home games and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Cougars are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after playing 2 straight at home and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 off 2 or more home wins. Take Houston! 

3* Providence/Xavier Big East ATS Annihilator on Providence +

The Friars are showing big time value here on the road against the Musketeers. Providence will be out for revenge from a 68-75 home loss to Xavier back on 1/26. The key thing to keep in mind with that defeat for the Friars, is they were in a horrible spot off a huge 82-76 win at Villanova as a 12.5-point underdog. 

Upsetting teams on the road has been a theme for Providence this season. Not only did they win at Villanova, but they knocked off Georgetown 73-69 as a 3-point road dog, won at Creighton 50-48 as a 2.5-point dog and won at Butler 81-73 as a 7.5-point dog. 

The reason we are seeing Providence catch such a big number here, is the fact that the Friars come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and have failed to cover the spread in all 4 of those games. We also find Xavier off a 74-57 blowout win at Butler as a 3.5-point dog. Pulling off the outright upset won't be easy, but it's definitely not out of the question. Either way I'm expecting a close game down to the wire. 

Friars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games off a home win, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 75+ in two straight games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Providence! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on TCU +

The Horned Frogs come into this game with a mere 2-10 record in Big 12 play and are fresh off an ugly 49-73 loss at West Virginia. TCU is a team that the betting public wants nothing to do with and it's why they are showing great value at home against a Kansas State team that is just 3-9 in the Big 12 and a miserable 3-8 away from home. 

This is also a tough spot for the Wildcats, who have zero chance at an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. That makes it really hard for Kansas State to emotionally get up for a game against a team like TCU, especially off a heartbreaking overtime loss at Oklahoma State and a huge home game on deck against in-state rival Kansas on Saturday. 

The Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss by more than 20 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5. Take TCU! 

4* W Virginia/Texas NCAAB No Doubt Rout on West Virginia +

This is going to seem like a great spot to back the Longhorns at home off back-to-back losses on the road against Big 12 heavy weights Oklahoma and Iowa State, especially considering Texas won 49-56 at West Virginia earlier this season. 

I don't see it playing out that way. West Virginia will be out for revenge against the Longhorns and that first loss wasn't a good spot for the Mountaineers. West Virginia was coming off two huge games against Kansas (won 74-63) and Oklahoma (68-70) and simply didn't have anything left in the tank for Texas and likely didn't give the Longhorns the respect they deserved. The Mountaineers shot just 31.1% from the field and forced a season-low 8 turnovers, two huge signs of a team that wasn't motivated and lacking energy. 

While Texas is 12-1 at home, West Virginia is 9-4 on the road with a 5-2 record away from home in Big 12 play. The only two losses coming against Oklahoma and Kansas, arguably the two best teams outside of the Mountaineers in the conference. 

West Virginia defeated TCU 73-42 in their last game and are a dominant 21-8 ATS in their last 29 off a blowout win by 30 or more points. The Mountaineers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, while Texas is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take West Virginia! 

5* NCAAB Big East Game of the Month on Butler -

We have already seen this line jump from 4.5 to 6.5, despite the majority of the public action coming in on Creighton. While I would have loved to have the Bulldogs at -4.5, I still like them a lot  at the current line. 

Butler had won 3 straight prior to an embarrassing 57-74 home loss to Xavier in their last game as a 3.5-point favorite. That loss isn't going to sit well with the Bulldogs, but that's not the only motivation angle here, as Butler will be out to revenge a 64-72 loss on the road to the Bluejays. 

Creighton has won 3 straight, including a 65-62 win at Marquette in their last game, but the Bluejays have been widely inconsistent in Big East play and have had their struggles on the road. While this game is important for both teams, it means a lot more to Butler, who is on the NCAA Tournament bubble. 

Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games after failing to cover their last contest and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off an embarrassing home loss where they scored 60 or fewer points. Take Butler! 

5* Oklahoma State/Kansas ESPN Vegas Insider on Oklahoma St +

Even with this being a revenge game for Kansas, who lost 67-86 at Oklahoma State, I just don't see them being able to bring that same kind of energy an intensity against a Cowboys team that is sitting one-game ahead of last place TCU at 3-9 in conference play.

On the flip side of this, I expect Oklahoma State to come out extremely motivated to show that the first win was no fluke. The Cowboys may be just 3-9 in Big 12 play, but things could be a lot different if they could have closed out some games. Oklahoma State has 5 defeats in conference play by 7-points or less. 

Given the fact that Kansas is 13-0 at home, riding a 5-game winning streak and playing with revenge, I believe oddsmakers had no choice here but to inflate this line, especially given the small card on Monday. Keep in mind that in the last 10 meetings, only once has Kansas won by more than 12-points and that was by 15 back in 2012 as a 17.5-point favorite. 

Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who averaging 76+ ppg and are off 3 or more consecutive unders are just 17-49 (26%) ATS since 1997 against an average offensive team (67-75 ppg) after 15+ games. It's also worth noting that teams in this spot are just 2-8 ATS this season. Take Oklahoma State! 

5* Miami/Florida St ACC Vegas Insider on Florida State Pick'em

This is a game the Seminoles desperately need to win at home if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. Florida State is currently projected as a No. 12 seed, which means they are one of the last at-large teams expected to make the field. A signature win over No. 12 Miami would definitely help their cause. 

The fact that the Seminoles aren't in the Top 25 and are the favorite at some books, is a great sign that the oddsmakers believe Florida State has the edge. I couldn't agree more. The Seminoles are a strong 8-2 at home and most importantly are a young team that is getting better and better as the season progresses. 

Miami is a quality team, but they have had some struggles on the road inside conference play. They lost by 11 at Clemson and 16 at NC State, two teams that I think are very comparable to the Seminoles. Hurricanes are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against s team with a wining home record.

Seminoles allowed Syracuse to shoot a ridiculous 62% in their last game, but are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 after a game where they allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or higher. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on Sunday. Take Florida State! 

3* NCAAB Late Night Bookie Destroyer on UNLV -

The Rebels are going to be out for revenge from a 65-66 loss at Colorado State back on 1/6. That was an uncharacteristic performance for the UNLV offense, which comes into today's game averaging 77.0 ppg.

I don't see the Rams being able to have that same kind of success on the defensive end in this one. UNLV averages 80.9 ppg at home, while Colorado State comes in giving up 78.4 ppg on 46% shooting on the road. 

The other thing you have to keep in mind with the previous result, is UNLV is a completely different team on their home floor. The Rebels are 10-3 at home, compared to a miserable 4-8 on the road.

The books are also tipping their hand in this one. Colorado State has covered 3 straight and won each of their last 2, while UNLV is just 1-3 in their last 4 and failed to cover all 4. Not to mention the Rams won the previous matchup. The fact that this line is 7, is a great indicator that the books are expecting a much different outcome in the rematch. 

Colorado State is just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off 2 or more consecutive wins, while the Rebels are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after a game where they made 20% or worse of their 3-point attempts. Take UNLV! 

5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Year on Iowa State - 

The Cyclones have dropped 3 of their last 4, including a heartbreaking 82-85 overtime loss at Texas Tech last time out. It's the second time they have lost 3 of 4 in conference play and the previous time they responded with a 10-point road win at Kansas State. I expect a similar type of an outcome here against the Longhorns. 

Texas has quietly got a lot better as the season has progressed and it's why they come in having covered 7 straight games. However, this is not a great spot for the Longhorns, as they suffered a crushing defeat at Oklahoma last time out and now have to go into one of the most hostile environments in all of college basketball. 

Iowa State will also be out for revenge from a 91-94 overtime loss at Texas, plus are going to get a huge boost from the return of Jameel McKay, who missed the last two games due to a suspension. I look for the Cyclones to feed off of McKay's energy and cruise to an easy home win. 

Cyclones are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games off a conference loss by 3-points or less and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite. Take Iowa State! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on Notre Dame - 

I believe this line is based off what Louisville has accomplished to this point in the season and not factoring in how difficult it is for the Cardinals to get emotionally invested into playing out the season. Louisville had to feel like they were a legit Final 4 contender before they found out they weren't going to be eligible for postseason play. That's a difficult thing to overcome and head coach Rick Pitino said it best. "This just takes a lot out of you, it really does," when referring to the impact of the postseason ban. 

It's created some exceptional value here with Notre Dame at basically a pick'em at home. The Fighting Irish come into this game off one of their best games of the season in a 89-83 win at Clemson, which followed their 80-76 home win over North Carolina last Saturday. Notre Dame is 12-1 at home and given their recent form, I look for them to have no problem coming away with a win against the Cardinals, who are just 4-4 on the road. 

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games when they come in having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Notre Dame! 

5* Dayton/Rhode Island A-10 Game of the Week on Dayton - 

I have no problem backing the Flyers at basically a pick'em on the road against Rhode Island. The fact that the Rams come into this game off back-to-back wins and have a respectable 9-3 record at home, is creating the value with Dayton.

While Rhode Island is 5-1 at home in conference play, all 5 wins have come against teams who have a losing record inside conference play. Their lone loss at home came against St. Joseph's, who is tied for 2nd in the A-10 with VCU at 9-2, 1-game back of Dayton at 10-1. Not only has their home wins in the conference been weak, but the Rams 4 non-conference home wins came against the likes of American, Holy Cross, Houston and Iona. 

Dayton is a legit NCAA Tournament team and right now are looking at being a No. 4 seed. You could argue that this is a look-ahead spot for the Flyers with a road game against St Joseph's on deck, but that just makes this game more important. If Dayton were to lose here, they could potentially go from 1st to 3rd in the A-10 standings. 

Rhode Island is 0-7 ATS this season in games with a line of +3 to -3 and are just 17-33 ATS in their last 50 home games after 15+ games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg. The Flyers on the other hand are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Dayton! 

4* NCAAB Missouri Valley Game of the Week on Evansville - 

Illinois State has won 5 of their last 6 and last time out they upset Wichita State at home 58-53 as a 13-point underdog. The books are begging you take the RedBirds as a big road dog against the Purple Aces, who has failed to cover 4 of their last 6. 

The key here is that this is a huge letdown spot for Illinois State and a closer look shows their win over the Shockers wasn't all that impressive. The Redbirds shot just 27.3% (15-55) from the field in the victory, but managed to go 22 of 26 from the foul line. That's not a recipe for success, especially on the road against a hungry Evansville team that will be looking to build off a dominant 83-64 win at home against Missouri State. 

The Purple Aces won 66-55 at Illinois State earlier this season and it you;d have been a lot worse. Evansville shot 50% from the field, while the Redbirds made just 30.7%. The only thing that kept Illinois State in the game was a ridiculous 19 offensive rebounds, which I'm confident they won't repeat. 

The Redbirds are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers. The Purple Aces are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days and an identical 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when they come in having failed to cover 4 of their last 6. Take Evansville! 

5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Month on Iowa State -

Due to the fact that Iowa State won't have suspended center Jameel McKay, I believe we are seeing exceptional value on the Cyclones as a small road favorite against the Red Raiders. Iowa State went on the road and beat Oklahoma State 64-59 without McKay and Stillwater is no easy place to win. 

If the Cyclones want to keep their hopes of a Big 12 regular season title alive, this is a game they simply can't afford to lose. Texas Tech is definitely a team they can beat without McKay, as the Red Raiders are just 2-8 over their last 10 with the only wins during this stretch coming against TCU and at home against Oklahoma State by a mere 2-points. 

Cyclones are 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons in games with a line of +3 to -3 and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record. Texas Tech is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a dog and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Iowa State! 

4* Baylor/K-State NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Baylor +

The books are begging for you take Kansas State as a small home favorite, but I think the real value here is on Baylor. The Bears are still in the hunt for the Big 12 title and simply can't afford to lose this game after dropping their last 2. Baylor is 6-4 in league play and their 4 losses have all come against other top teams in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia. The Wildcats aren't in that class, as they are just 3-7 in the Big 12. 

Kansas State does come into this game off a huge 80-69 win at home against Oklahoma, but that is a big reason why I like the Bears in this matchup. It's going to be extremely hard for the Wildcats to bounce back from that big win. Keep in mind they have not won consecutive games since late December and that includes a 13-point loss at home to Iowa State off a 13-point home win against Texas Tech. 

Baylor has won 4 of the last 5 games in the series, including a 79-72 win at home earlier this season. The Bears are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season after playing their previous game as a road dog and 2-0 ATS off a road loss by 10 or more points. Take Baylor! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Providence -

The Friars are showing great value here as a small road favorite against Marquette. Both teams come into this game having lost 2 straight, but we are seeing a lower line than we should due to the fact that Providence lost by 12 as a 4.5-point dog at home to Villanova last time out, while the Golden Eagles covered in a 8-point loss as a 12.5-point dog at Xavier. 

Providence comes into this game having gone 8-2 SU and ATS on the road this season and are going to be highly motivated for this matchup, as they will be out for revenge from a 64-65 home loss to Marquette earlier this season. Keep in mind that the Golden Eagles were 10-point road dogs in that matchup, which means they should be around a 6-7 points dog at home. 

Marquette is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after 2 straight conference losses, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games, 1-8 ATS at home as a dog of 6 or less and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 home games after playing their previous game as a road underdog. The Friars are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 revenging a loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing their previous game at home. Take Providence! 

3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on New Mexico -

The Lobos are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Aggies. New Mexico is going to come out extremely motivated after letting one slip away in Saturday's 71-78 loss at San Diego State. Prior to that the Lobos had won 4 straight and it's also worth noting that they dominated Utah State at home 77-59 (led 43-18 at half) earlier this season. 

The Aggies haven't exactly been playing well of late. Utah State has lost 5 straight and are just 3-8 inside league play. In their last two home games the Aggies lost 84-89 as a 5.5-point favorite against Nevada and 68-80 to UNLV as a 3-point dog. 

Utah State is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 off a road loss, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. Lobos are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 after playing their previous game on the road and 13-4 in their last 17 after playing a game as a road dog. They are also a dominant 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games with a line of +3 to -3. Take New Mexico! 

4* W Virginia/Kansas NCAAB Vegas Insider on Kansas -

This is going to seem like a big number for the Jayhawks to be laying at home against the Mountaineers, but I really like Kansas to win and win big in this spot. The Jayhawks come into this game having won 3 straight and will be all business given how much this game means to the Big 12 regular season title and the fact that they want revenge from a 11-point loss at West Virginia earlier this season. 

The Mountaineers come in this game off back-to-back huge wins at Iowa State (81-76) and at home against Baylor (69-80), but we also saw them recently lose at Florida by 17 points. West Virginia isn't nearly as strong on the road as they are at home and Kansas has one of the best home court advantages in the country. 

West Virginia is just 14-31 ATS in their last 45 road games off 2 straight conference wins and 19-35 ATS in their last 54 road games off a conference win by 10 or more. Jayhawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 75+ in two straight games and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 off a win by 15 or more points. Take Kansas! 

4* Notre Dame/Clemson Late Night ATS Bailout on Clemson - 

The Tigers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Fighting Irish. Clemson is being undervalued here off a 57-60 road loss at Virginia Tech as a 2.5-point favorite, while Notre Dame is getting a lot of respect here off a 80-76 upset win at home against No. 2 North Carolina as a 2.5-point dog. 

Clemson is a perfect 5-0 at home inside ACC play and it's not like they have played a soft schedule on their home floor. The Tigers 5 conference home wins have come against the likes of Florida State, Louisville, Duke, Miami and Pittsburgh. The Irish are a dominant 12-1 at home, but just 4-6 on the road and have not fared well away from home of late. Notre Dame lost 70-79 at Miami in a game that wasn't that close and prior to that lost 66-81 at Syracuse. 

Irish are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Take Clemson! 

4* Miami/Georgia Tech NCAAB Vegas Insider on Georgia Tech +

The Yellow Jackets are one of the most underrated teams in the ACC. While Georgia Tech is just 2-7 in conference play, all 7 losses have come by 9-points or less, with 5 of those coming by 5 points or fewer. Both conference wins have come at home, including a 68-64 win against Virginia as a 6-point dog. 

Miami comes into this game off an impressive 79-70 win at home against Notre Dame and are 6-3 in the ACC, but just 1-3 on the road with the only road win coming against Boston College. Last time they played on the road they were embarrassed by NC State 85-69. 

Hurricanes are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 as a road favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. Yellow Jackets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 off 2 straight conference losses and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having lost 4 of their last 5. Take Georgia Tech! 

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Colorado +

I really like the situation here with the Buffaloes catching points on the road against the Beavers. Oregon State comes into this game off a huge 71-69 home win over Utah, while Colorado enters off an embarrassing 20-point loss at Oregon. This is a huge letdown spot for the Beavers and an even bigger bounce back spot for the Buffaloes. 

Oregon State's win over the Utes wasn't their first big home win in conference play. The Beavers have also knocked off Oregon, Cal and USC at home. While that could be taken as a sign to go against the Buffaloes, the Beavers have followed up each of those big home wins with a loss. Colorado on the other hand has not lost back-to-back games in the Pac-12 and followed each of their previous 2 defeats in conference play with a win on the road the next time out. 

Buffaloes are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they failed to cover the spread, while Oregon State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a cover and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off an upset win as a home dog. Take Colorado! 

4* NCAAB Prime Time ATS Annihilator on Baylor +

The Bears are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Mountaineers. West Virginia is getting a lot of respect here after their impressive 81-76 win at Iowa State, but I look for them to struggle to put away Baylor by more than the number listed here. The Bears have owned the Mountaineers of late. They have won 4 straight and 7 of the last 8 in the series. The only loss being a 2-point loss at home back in 2014. 

This is also a tough spot for West Virginia. They invested a lot into beating the Cyclones and will have a hard time not looking ahead to Tuesday's huge showdown at Kansas, which could be the game that decides the Big 12 regular season title.

At the same time, Baylor is in a prime bounce back spot, as they lost 59-67 at home to Texas last time out. The Bears shot just 35.2% from the field in that game, which is uncharacteristic, as they are shooting 46.7% from the field on the season. It's also worth noting the Bears have won 3 straight on the road, with impressive wins at both Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Take Baylor! 

5* NCAAB SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt -

The Commodores come into this game off their best game in quite some time, as they rolled No. 8 Texas A&M 77-60 at home on Thursday. That's the kind of win that can really light a fire under a team and I look for Vanderbilt to ride that momentum with another big time performance on the road against Ole Miss. 

The key here is that even with the win, the Commodores are still showing value due to their poor play against the spread prior to the victory. Even with the cover against the Aggies, Vanderbilt is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10. Ole Miss comes in off a road win over Missouri and have covered 3 of their last 4, which is also helping this line. 

While the Commodores are just 3-7 on the road this season, that's more of a result of the talent they have had to play away from home. Vanderbilt's 7 road losses have come against Kansas, Baylor, Purdue, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky and Texas. The Rebels are simply not in that class of talent and while they are 8-2 at home, they haven't beat anyone at home as good as Vanderbilt and have lost 2 of their last 3 with defeats to Florida and South Carolina. 

Commodores are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games after winning 2 of their last 3 games, while the Rebels are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games off a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games off a win by 6 points or less. Take Vanderbilt! 

5* UCLA/USC Pac-12 Vegas Insider Top Play on USC -

The Trojans went on the road and dominated UCLA 89-75 back on 1/13 and I look for USC to have no problem winning and covering at home in the rematch. One win over the Bruins isn't going to satisfy the Trojans in this rivalry, as UCLA had won each of the 6 previous meetings. This time around it's USC that's the better team. 

Just playing at home is enough to back the Trojans in this spot. USC is a perfect 13-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 17.6 ppg. They have only played 4 conference home games to this point and 3 of those have come by double-digits. The only exception being an overtime win against a really good Arizona team. UCLA on the other hand is just 4-6 on the road with a 1-3 record away from home in the Pac-12. The only win coming against Oregon State, who is just 3-6 in league play. 

UCLA is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against a team that's won between 60% and 80% of their games over the last 2 seasons. The Bruins are also 0-8 ATS in their last 8 against up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against teams averaging 84 or more points/game. Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record, 11-1 ATS in their last 12 after playing a game at home and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a home win by 10 or more. Take USC! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Creighton +

The Bluejays are showing great value here as a big time dog on the road against Villanova. Creighton is going to come into this game with a chip on their shoulder off back-to-back losses at Georgetown and at home against Seton Hall. The Bluejays gave away a big lead late against the Hoyas and that loss clearly had an effect on their energy level against the Pirates. 

Villanova is a great team, but they aren't exactly playing their best basketball at the movement. The Wildcats followed up a shocking 76-82 home loss to Providence with a 68-53 win at St Johns. Winning by 15-points looks good on paper, but that wasn't a great showing by Villanova.

With Daniel Ochefu still out with a concussion, I don't see the Wildcats turning this one into a blowout. Ochefu played a huge role in Villanova's 14-point win earlier this season, scoring 19 points on 9 of 10 shooting and grabbing 7 rebounds. it also helps negate the likely absence of Creighton center Geoffrey Groselle. 

Bluejays are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games after playing 3 or more conference games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6. Villanova is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against at team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Creighton! 

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Arkansas +

The Razorbacks are showing big time value here against the Gators. Florida is simply getting way to much respect due to their 17-point blowout win at home against West Virginia last time out. This is a huge letdown spot for the Gators, who will have a hard time not looking ahead to Saturday's huge showdown at Kentucky. 

Arkansas on the other hand comes into this game off back-to-back wins over Texas A&M and Texas Tech at home. I believe that victory over the Aggies last week was the kind of win that can spark a big run for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is playing with tremendous confidence and I look for them to be the more motivated team in this one. Would not surprise me at all if the pulled the outright upset. 

The Gators are just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 off a win and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of 2 straight games. Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record. It's also worth noting the underdog has cashed in each of the last 4 meetings in the series. Take Arkansas! 

5* ACC Game of the Month on Miami - 

We are seeing great value here on the Hurricanes off an ugly 69-85 loss at NC State last time out. Not only is that loss playing into this favorable line, but the fact that Notre Dame is off a 23-point win over Wake Forest and have won 5 of their last 6 is creating value. 

I wasn't all that surprised to see the Hurricanes struggle on the road against the Wolfpack, as they were coming off a huge 80-69 win at home against Duke in the previous game. That loss will have Miami re-focused for a big showdown against the Fighting Irish at home, where they are 10-1 on the season and a perfect 4-0 inside ACC play. It's also worth noting that all 4 home wins in conference play have come by double-digits. Notre Dame won at Duke not that long ago, but they have also lost by 11 at Virginia and 15 at Syracuse and are just 4-5 away from home overall. 

The Irish are just 5-18 ATS in their last 23 off a conference win by 20 or more points and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. The Hurricanes are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons why they come in having failed to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Miami! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Duke -

The Blue Devils have lost 4 of 5 and fallen out of the Top 25, which in turn has created exceptional value here with Duke laying a small number on the road against the Yellow Jackets. While things haven't gone the Blue Devils way of late, this is still an elite team in my eyes and you can't overlook the fact that 3 of their 4 losses during this current stretch have come by 5 points or less. 

Georgia Tech is a quality team, but are also struggling to find ways to win. The Yellow Jackets are an identical 1-4 in their last 5 games and just 2-6 in ACC play overall. A key advantage here for Duke is they haven't played since last Monday and with how bad they have been playing, there's no question that it's been a hard week of practice. This is a statement game for Duke, who has a chance to get things back on track with 3 straight at home after this contest. 

Duke is 60-40 (60%) ATS in their last 100 after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 after failing to cover in their last game and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.  Take Duke -3.5! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Michigan - 

The Wolverines are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Hoosiers. Indiana comes into this game tied with Iowa a top the Big 10 standings at 8-1, but a lot of that has to do with a soft schedule to start out conference play. Indiana just recently lost at Wisconsin and were nearly upset at home against Minnesota in their last game. 

The Hoosiers are simply overvalued right now and should be a bigger dog than we see here against a Michigan team that is playing some of it's best basketball of the season. The Wolverines have won 4 straight and are a quiet 7-2 in league play with their only 2 losses coming on the road against Iowa and Purdue. This is a team that beat Maryland at home and comes into this game 11-1 on their home floor this season. This is a statement game for the Wolverines and I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up running away with this game. 

Indiana is just 0-6 ATS on the road over the last 2 seasons after playing 4 straight games as a favorite, while the Wolverines are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after 15+ games against a top caliber team, who is outscoring opponents by 12+ ppg. Take Michigan! 

4* UNC/Louisville NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Louisville -

The fact that the Cardinals are favored after getting embarrassed at home by highly ranked Virginia (47-63) on Saturday, really says a lot about what the oddsmakers are expecting from Louisville in a huge bounce back spot tonight. The public is going to be all over North Carolina, who has won 12 straight and yet to lose in conference play (8-0). 

The Cardinals simply couldn't have played any worse against Virginia. They shot just 32.7% from the field, while allowing the Cavaliers to shoot 57.8%. I fully expect them to rebound with one of their best performances of the season in what is a huge statement game for the Cardinals. While North Carolina is also a highly ranked opponent, they aren't near as good defensively as Virginia. The Tar Heels come in allowing 74.4 ppg on the road. 

Another big factor here is that North Carolina's 12-game winning streak and perfect 8-0 record in the ACC is largely due to them not being challenged. The Tar Heels haven't faced the likes of Duke, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame or Miami in conference play. As a result they haven't been in a lot of close games and I look for them to struggle in their first real test in over a month. 

Tar Heels are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after winning 12 or more of their last 15 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after winning 15 or more of their last 20. The Cardinals are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 off a loss by 15 or more points and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after failing to cover 8 or more of their last 10. Take Louisville! 

5* Oregon/Arizona St NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Arizona St +

The Sun Devils are showing some great value here as a home dog against the Ducks. Arizona State is a far better team than their 2-6 record inside the Pac-12 would indicate. The Suns Devils all 6 losses have come by 12-points or less and 4 of those by 7 or fewer. Arizona State snapped a 3-game losing streak with a 86-68 win at home over Oregon State on Thursday and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a big win at home against Oregon. 

The Ducks come in having won 3-straight, but are in prime position for a letdown after a huge 83-75 win at Arizona as a 7-point dog. Prior to that Oregon knocked off two other top Pac-12 teams in USC and UCLA at home. Even with the win over the Wildcats, the Ducks are just 4-4 on the road, while Arizona State is a strong 9-3 at home. 

Last time here the Ducks needed overtime to escape with a 68-67 win which was only their 2nd road win in the series since 2010. It's also worth noting the Sun Devils have a history of playing Oregon tough, as each of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 7 or less with the only game decided by more than 3 coming at Oregon.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 off a win by 15 or more against an opponent that has scored 75 or more in 3 straight games are 26-9 (74%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Arizona State! 

4* ISU/Texas A&M NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Texas A&M - 

I think we are getting some exceptional value here on the Aggies as a small home favorite, due to Texas A&M coming into this game off a 71-74 loss at Arkansas, while Iowa State comes in off a 85-72 blowout win against Kansas. What you have to keep in mind is the Cyclones have a huge homecourt advantage and Arkansas is arguably the toughest place to play in the SEC for opposing teams. 

I look for a completely different Texas A&M team at home, where they are a perfect 12-0 this season winning by an average of 20+ ppg. Iowa State is 6-3 on the road, but have lost their two toughest road games against both Oklahoma and Texas. This game simply means more to the Aggies and I believe they are every bit as talented as the Cyclones. 

Iowa State is just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games when they come in having covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, while the Aggies are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams who average 12 or fewer turnovers/game. Take Texas A&M! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Month on Kansas St - 

I really like the value here with the Wildcats at home in a game they desperately need to have. Kansas State has got off to a disappointing 2-6 start in Big 12 play, but this is a much better team than their record would indicate. They are going to be extremely motivated off an ugly 55-70 loss at West Virginia, which they shot just 35% from the field, including a dreadful 5.6% (1 for 18) from long-distance. Prior that loss the Wildcats destroyed Oklahoma State at home 89-73 and I'm expecting a similar type of outcome here. 

Ole Miss comes into this game off a 80-63 blowout win at home against Auburn, but that's nothing to get excited about. The Rebels had lost their previous 4 games, including a 9-point loss at LSU and 6-point defeat at Mississippi State. Ole Miss opened up 10-2 in non-conference play but didn't play anyone. Their best win was against UMass at home and they lost to both George Mason and Seton Hall. 

A huge factor here and why I'm confident laying this number is the Rebels will be missing a huge piece in junior forward sebastian Saiz, who is the only player outside of Stefan Moody that's averaging double figures (12.8 ppg) and is by far the team's leading rebounder (9.8 rpg). Not only his absence big offensively, but it hurts them defensively. 

Kansas State is 23-12 ATS at home over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of nearly 10.0 ppg. The Wildcats are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing on their 2nd game in a 7-day stretch, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Take Kansas State! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Arizona St - 

The Sun Devils are arguably the most underrated team in the Pac-12 right now. Arizona State is just 1-6 in conference games, but could very easily have a winning record. They have lost 4 games by 5-points or less, including 3 straight by 5 or less. This is the definition of a must-win game and I look for the Sun Devils to respond in a big way against the Beavers. 

Oregon State is 3-4 in league play and that's with playing 5 of their first 7 conference games at home. The Beavers lost both of their road games in the Pac-12, including a ugly 54-71 loss at Colorado, which followed a huge 77-71 home win over Cal. We find Oregon State in a very similar spot here, as they come in off a huge 85-70 win at home against USC. On top of that, the Beavers could find themselves overlooking the Sun Devils with an even bigger road game on deck against Arizona on Saturday. 

Beavers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 conference road games, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games off a home win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after playing 2 or more consecutive games at home (average loss by 16.3 ppg). Sun Devils on the other hand are a strong 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss. Take Arizona State! 

5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Georgia Tech +

The Yellow Jackets come into this game with a mere 1-5 record inside league play, but could very easily be sitting near the top of the standings. All 5 of Georgia Tech's conference losses have come by 8-points or less and that includes road games at North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. They also come in off a heartbreaking 71-75 home loss to Louisville. This team has proven itself against the top teams and I look for them to take advantage of a soft spot in their schedule here against NC State. 

The Wolfpack have also suffered some close losses, but they have come against weaker competition. The big key here is that we are catching NC State in a prime letdown spot off a huge home showdown against Duke and potentially without their best player in Anthony Barber, who averages 22.1 ppg. Barber is questionable with a knee injury and even if he does play I don't expect him to be his normal self. That's a big problem for the Wolfpack, as they desperately need him to be a major factor offensively to have any chance. If he doesn't end up playing, this game could turn into a blowout quickly. 

Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 off 2 or more consecutive losses, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 when they have lost 4 of their last 5 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. NC State on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Georgia Tech! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Alabama -

The Crimson Tide are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Volunteers. Alabama has got off to a miserable 1-5 start in SEC play, but their lone win was an impressive 73-50 victory at home against South Carolina. The Crimson Tide did lose their other two road games, but one was against Kentucky and the other was a mere 2-point defeat at home to LSU in their last game. 

Given how things have gone and riding a 3-game losing streak, I look for Alabama to come out and play inspired basketball in front of the home fans against the Volunteers. Tennessee on the other hand is primed for a letdown coming off a huge 78-69 win at home against South Carolina. It's also worth noting that the Volunteers are just 1-7 away from home this season. 

The Crimson Tide are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 when coming in having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off 2 or more consecutive conference losses and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a conference home loss. Take Alabama! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Wisconsin +

The Badgers are showing great value here as a home dog against the Hoosiers. Indiana comes into this game riding a 12-game winning streak, which includes a perfect 7-0 start in Big Ten play. What gets overlooked with the Hoosiers strong start is they have played a very favorable conference schedule to this point. They have not played a single game against Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue or Michigan.

They did face Wisconsin earlier this season, but only won 59-58 as a 7.5-point home favorite. I believe the winning streak comes to an end tonight. The Badgers come in off back-to-back impressive wins, defeating Michigan State at home and Penn State on the road. They are just 3-4 in league play, but all 4 losses have come by 6-points or less. 

Wisconsin is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 when revenging a loss of 3-points or less and 31-13 ATS in their last 44 home games against teams shooting 48% or better from the field. Indiana on the other hand is 2-15 ATS in their last 17 road games off a blowout win by 30 or more points and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a conference win by more than 10 points. Take Wisconsin! 

4* Duke/Miami NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Miami - 

Miami is showing some exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Blue Devils. Duke was able to snap their 3-game skid with a 88-78 win at NC State, covering as a 5-point favorite, but that's nothing to get excited about, as the Wolfpack are just 1-6 inside ACC play. I still think there are major problems with this Duke team, especially as long as Amile Jefferson is sidelined. 

Miami comes in having won 2 straight and are 4-2 inside ACC play. Both losses came on the road against quality opponents in Virginia and Clemson. Most importantly the Hurricanes are a dominant 9-1 at home this season with impressive wins over Florida (66-55), Syracuse (64-51) and Florida State (72-59). Factor in the atmosphere with the opponent being Duke and this game being televised on ESPN and the homecourt advantage should be more than enough to propel Miami to victory. 

The Hurricanes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 off a home win by 10 or more, 20-8 in their last 28 off a SU win and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Duke is just 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games on Monday, which are almost always high-profile games. Take Miami! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Virginia Tech +

The Hokies are showing exceptional value here as a double-digit home dog against the Tar Heels. No question that North Carolina is one of the top teams in the country, but they are way overvalued on the road because of it. While the Tar Heels are 17-2 overall, they are only outscoring opponents by 12.1 ppg in conference play. 

The key here is that Virginia Tech isn't a team that's going to garner North Carolina's full attention, though they should. The Hokies are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 4-2 in their last 6 games with wins over NC State, Virginia and Georgia Tech. They also just nearly upset Notre Dame on the road as a 13-point underdog (lost 81-83). This is a team playing with a ton of confidence and I fully expect them to be the more motivated team in this one. 

Tar Heels are a mere 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after winning 12 or more of their last 15 games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after back-to-back wins by 10 or more points. Hokies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after giving up 80 or more points in their last game, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Virginia Tech! 

4* Maryland/Michigan St NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Michigan St - 

The Spartans come into this game having lost 3 straight and as a result are showing exceptional value here as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against Maryland. Michigan State's only bad loss during this stretch came against Iowa, as they had a 1-point loss at Wisconsin (76-77) and 1-point loss at home to Nebraska (71-72). This is is simply too good a team to lose 4 straight, especially playing at home and I fully expect to see the Spartans lay everything on the line in this game. 

Maryland is a talented team and one of the best in the country, but playing on the road in the Big Ten is no easy task no matter how good you are. The Terrapins have struggled in both of their last two road games, barely escaping with a 63-60 win at Wisconsin and then losing at Michigan. Keep in mind last year the Spartans were a mere 1.5-point home favorite against Maryland and absolutely dominated them in a 75-59 win. 

Spartans are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 off a loss by 6 points or less and 20-9 ATS in their last 29 against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Take Michigan State! 

5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Year on Kansas St - 

The Wildcats are showing some great value here even as a 6-point home favorite. After going 10-2 in non-conference play, Kansas State has opened a disappointing 1-5 inside the Big 12, but the big key here is they could just as easily have a winning conference record. They lost in overtime at home to West Virginia and on the road in their last game against Baylor. They also lost by just 3-points at Texas. The other two defeats came against Iowa State and Oklahoma, so there's plenty of reason to expect the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way at home against the Cowboys. 

Oklahoma State is a huge letdown spot after their shocking home win against Kansas last time out and it's important to note that their only other win inside conference play is a home game against TCU. They played Oklahoma tough at home, but have not looked good in their 3 road games, which include blowout losses to both Baylor (62-79) and West Virginia (60-77). Two teams Kansas State easily could have beat. 

Last year the Wildcats won 63-53 at home and took control early with a 31-21 halftime lead. I think it's going to be an even bigger blowout this time around. Wildcats are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 as a home favorite of 6 or less, while Oklahoma State is just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 conference road games and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games at least 15 games into the season when facing a team with a winning record. Take Kansas State!

5* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on Cal - 

The Golden Bears are showing great value here at home against Arizona State. California is prime for a dominant performance on their home floor tonight. The Golden Bears come into this contest off 3 straight conference losses on the road, but it's important to note that they could have won all 3, as all 3 losses came by 6-points or less. Prior to losing 3 straight on the road, Cal was impressive in blowout home wins over Colorado (79-65) and Utah (71-58).

Needless to say given their 3-game slide, Cal is going to come out as motivated and focused as they have all season. That should be more than enough to win and cover this spread, as the Golden Bears have a great home court advantage. Cal is a perfect 11-0 at home. Arizona State has dropped 3 of their last 4 true road games and are just 1-4 to start out Pac-12 play. 

Sun Devils enter off a 85-89 home loss to Washington and that's important to note. Arizona State is just 11-27 ATS in their last 38 road games off a home loss, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after a home game where both teams scored 75 or more and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after a combined score of 155 or more in their last game.

Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites off 2 or more consecutive losses as a road favorite are 90-42 (68%) ATS since 1997 and are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. Take California! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Kentucky -

The perception on Kentucky has taken a big hit of late, as the Wildcats are just 6-4 over their last 10 games and come into this contest off an ugly 70-75 defeat at Auburn as a 12-point favorite. While this is clearly not an elite Kentucky team like years past, this is still a very good Wildcats team. 

One thing Kentucky has been able to do extremely well is rebound off a loss. Kentucky is a perfect 3-0 after a loss this season. Their previous loss before Auburn was a 67-85 defeat at LSU. They followed that up with a 77-61 blowout win at Alabama as a mere 6.5-point favorite. 

Arkansas is quality team, but are no match for the Wildcats. The Razorbacks covered last time out in a 74-76 defeat at LSU, which snapped a 3-game winning streak. I believe Arkansas is simply getting way too much love here due to covering each of their last 4 games and will be no match for a motivated Kentucky team. 

Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 against the SEC. Take Kentucky! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Texas +

The public perception is growing rapidly on West Virginia and as a result the Mountaineers are way overvalued here at home against the Longhorns. While West Virginia lost 68-70 at Oklahoma in their last game, they covered as a 4.5-point dog. That followed a 74-63 win at home over Kansas and 77-60 win at home against Oklahoma State. 

I believe we are going to see West Virginia come out bit flat here against Texas, as they laid everything they had into their last two games against Kansas and Oklahoma, two teams that were No.1 and No. 2 in the country. It's also not easy bouncing back from a heartbreaking loss like they had against the Sooners. 

Texas is a team that a lot of people wrote off early in the year, but the Longhorns come in playing extremely well. Texas followed up a huge 94-91 home win over Iowa State with a 74-69 win at home against Oklahoma State. It's also important to note that the Longhorns have lost once all season by double-digits and that was against a Texas A&M team that is one of the best in the country. 

What I really like here is the fact that Texas has consistently played West Virginia tough. The Long Horns have won 5 of the last 6 in the series and are 6-3 in the last 9. All 3 losses came by 7-points or less.

Adding to this is the fact that the Mountaineers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games off a cover where they lost outright as an underdog and the Longhorns are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins. Take Texas! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Virginia Tech +

The Hokies are showing exceptional value here as a double-digit road dog against the Fighting Irish. These two teams come in with near identical records, as Virginia Tech is 12-6 and Notre Dame is 12-5. On top of that, the Hokies are 4-1 in league play, while the Irish are just 3-2.

The key here is Virginia Tech wasn't expected to be any good this year and the books are going to be a lot slower to adjust on a team like this. In fact, they are more likely to inflate this line on Notre Dame, given they are coming off a huge 95-91 upset win at Duke as a 8.5-point dog. As impressive as that win appears on paper, that's not the same caliber a Blue Devils team as years past and it has them prime for a letdown. 

The Hokies 4-1 start to ACC play has been no fluke. Virginia Tech has wins over NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech on the road. Confidence is everything at this point in the season and there's no question the Hokies are going to be extremely motivated for this game when they see they are expected to get blown out of the gym according to the oddsmakers. 

Notre Dame is just 17-30 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons,  3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games after wining 3 of their last 4, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after playing their previous game as a road dog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Virginia Tech! 

5* Big Ten Game of the Month on Northwestern +

Northwestern is showing tremendous value here as a massive road dog against the Terrapins. I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated line based on the recent results of both teams. The Wildcats just got embarrassed at home 62-71 as a 9-point favorite against Penn State, while Maryland rolled Ohio State 100-65 as a 10.5-point home favorite. 

Losing to the Nittany Lions at home isn't going to help the Wildcats cause of making their first NCAA Tournament, but this is without a doubt one of the best teams Northwestern has ever had. I look for Northwestern to be the much more motivated team in this one.

Not only because of what happened in each teams' last game, but they are going to want revenge from a 59-72 loss at home to Maryland back on 1/2. Coming off that big win over the Buckeyes, having already beat Northwestern and an even bigger game on deck at Michigan State, I don't see the Terrapins coming out with the kind of intensity to turn this into a blowout. 

It's also important to note that Northwestern has played some of their best basketball on the road. The Wildcats are 5-1 away from home with a perfect 4-0 record in true road games. Their only defeat away from home is a 11-point defeat to North Carolina on a neutral court. 

Maryland is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as a home favorite of 12.5 or more and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after a contest where they shot 55% or better from the field. Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 when revenging a loss by 10 or more points. Take Northwestern! 

5* Oklahoma/Iowa St NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Iowa St - 

The Cyclones are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Sooners. Iowa State got off to a surprisingly poor start in conference play, losing 3 of their first 4, including a rare home loss to Baylor. They responded in a big way on Saturday in a must-win situation, going on the road and knocking off Kansas State 76-63.

I look for the Cyclones to carry over that momentum and hand the Sooners their second loss of the season. Keep in mind these two teams played in Oklahoma back on 1/2 and the Sooners barely escaped with a 87-83 win as a 6.5-point favorite. Playing with revenge and one of the best home court advantages in the country, Iowa State should be a bigger favorite than what they are. The Cyclones are 72-6 at home since February of 2011. Keep in mind they lost 83-94 at Oklahoma last year and then returned home in the rematch and defeated the Sooners 77-70 as a 6-point favorite. 

Cyclones are 24-4 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of 3 points or less, while Oklahoma is a mere 8-17 ATS in their last 25 when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record. Take Iowa State! 

4* Oregon/Colorado NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Colorado +

The Buffaloes are showing some great value here as a home dog against the Ducks. Colorado is 9-1 on their home floor this season and have own the Ducks of late with 3 straight wins at home in the series. Oregon is simply overvalued here due to coming in off 3 straight wins and having won 7 of their last 8. 

Colorado has cone and impressive 29-18 ATS in their last 47 in games with a line of +3 to -3 and are 24-13 ATS in their last 37 home games against teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Note that Oregon is only shooting 43.7% on the road compared to 46.1% overall. Ducks won 77-59 at Utah in their last game, but prior to that they lost 57-70 at Oregon State and 72-74 at Boise State. It's hard enough winning on the road in conference play and I just don't see Oregon pulling off back-to-back big road wins in this spot. Take Colorado! 

4* Arkansas/LSU NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on LSU - 

I really like the value we are getting with LSU in this game. The Tigers are a well known commodity with freshman sensation Ben Simmons leading the way, but the public is starting to lose interest as they are just 5-9 ATS and have failed to cover each of their last 2. Arkansas on the other hand is a much more attractive option with this line, as they have won 3 straight and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. I believe it's resulted in a very favorable line here for LSU at home. 

The Razorbacks have won 3 straight conference games, but two of those have come against two of the worst teams in the league in Mississippi State and Missouri, while the other came at home against Vanderbilt. Arkansas' only real road test in the SEC came in their opener at Texas A&M and they got destroyed 69-92 as an 11-point dog. The Razorbacks overall are just 1-6 away from home this season, while LSU is a dominant 9-1 at home. 

The Tigers come in off a 90-81 win at home against Ole Miss, who I would classify as a similar caliber team to Arkansas and they did so without Ben Simmons playing well. Simmons had just 15 points, well below his season average of 20.3. LSU also overcame a 33-point effort from Ole Miss' Stefan Moody and 11 3-pointers made by the Rebels. 

It's also important to note that this is a bit of a lookahead spot for the Razorbacks with a huge home game against Kentucky on deck. It will be a lot easier to lookahead to that game with the recent success they have endured and I believe it adds up to a blowout loss on the road against a LSU team that is getting better and better as the season moves along. 

Arkansas is 4-15 ATS in their last 19 after 2 straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field, 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games after covering 4 of their last 5 and 28-60 ATS in their last 88 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take LSU! 

3* NCAAB Situational No Doubt ATS Blowout on Vanderbilt - 

Vanderbilt has got off to a disappointing 1-3 start to conference play, but were able to right the ship last time out with a 75-57 blowout win at home over Auburn. This might seem like a big number for them to be laying given their struggles to start SEC play, but the fact of the matter is this is a game the Commodores can't afford to lose, especially considering their next two are on the road. I look for Vanderbilt to treat this as a must-win situation. 

That should be more than enough to win here and cover the spread against Alabama. The fact that the Crimson Tide are a double-digit dog after just destroying previously undefeated South Carolina 73-50 at home as a 4-point dog, really says a lot about what the oddsmakers think of this team.

Keep in mind this is a team that lost by 8 on the road against an average Ole Miss team and 16 at home to Kentucky in their first two conference games. Alabama is also historically not a great road team and we have seen them lose badly away from home on multiple occasions this year, including a 32-point loss at Dayton and 19-point defeat to Xavier on a neutral setting.

Crimson Tide have been a great team to fade off a home win, as they are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a victory on their home floor. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by more than 20-points. Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games and a dominant 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games as a favorite of 10 or more points. Take Vanderbilt! 

5* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgetown +

I believe we are getting exceptional value here on the Hoyas as a decently priced home dog against No. 6 Villanova. The Wildcats are certainly overvalued here being ranked inside the Top 10 and riding a 6 game winning streak that just saw them knock off Marquette at home 83-68. 

The key thing to keep in mind with Villanova's latest run, is they have only played 2 games on the road during this stretch. While they beat Creighton 85-71, that's not a great Bluejays team. The other road game was much closer, as they barely edged out a 60-55 win at Butler. If Villanova is vulnerable, it's definitely on the road. 

Georgetown enters this game having won 5 of their last 6, with 4 of the 5 wins coming inside conference play. The Hoyas lone loss came at Creighton, but that's not a big surprise. This team has consistently played up or down to their competition. Georgetown has wins over the likes of Wisconsin and Syracuse and lost by just 4-points on the road at Maryland and 2-points on a neutral court against Duke. 

Villanova has won 20 straight against conference opponents, but keep in mind the last time they lost came on this same floor nearly a year ago, as the Hoyas demolished Villanova 78-58 on Jan. 19 of last year. Given how big of a rivalry this is and how well Georgetown has played against elite competition this year, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Hoyas won this game outright. 

Hoyas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games in excellent teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field on offense and holding opponents to 42% or worse. Take Georgetown! 

4* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 ATS Vegas Insider on Utah - 

The Utes are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Ducks. Utah is a perfect 8-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by more than 25 ppg. A big reason the Utes are showing value here is they are just 1-2 to start out conference play, but all 3 of those games have come on the road.

Oregon on the other hand is off to a strong 2-1 start to league play and come in off an impressive 71-58 win at home over Stanford, which followed a 68-65 home victory against Cal. However, the Ducks were embarrassed in their only conference road game, losing 57-70 as a 2-point favorite at in-state rival Oregon State. Overall, Oregon's only other true road game came at Boise State, which they also lost. 

The Ducks are a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing 2 straight games at home and 5-15 ATS in the month of January over the last 3 seasons. Oregon is also 0-6 ATS in the last 2 seasons against dominant rebounding teams, who are outrebounding opponents by 7+ boards/game. The Utes are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 home games after losing 2 of their last 3, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after allowing less than 60 points and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games in the month of January. Take Utah! 

5* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -

Colorado comes in this game having lost 3 of their last 4, including 2 of their first 3 conference games. Oregon State on the other hand has won 5 of their last 6 and are 2-1 in the Pac-12 with wins over Oregon and Cal. The key thing to keep in mind with the Beavers and their strong start to conference play, is they have played all 3 conference games at home. 

Oregon State hasn't played a true road games since the middle of November and their two road games haven't exactly been challenging against Rice and UC-Santa Barbara. Either way it's created some exceptional value here on Colorado who is 8-1 at home with the only loss being a 2-point defeat to Utah in their last game. Needless to say the Buffaloes are going to come out extremely motivated to avoid a 1-3 start to league play. 

Last year the Buffaloes won 64-58 at home against Oregon State and are 4-1 at home in the last 5 meetings against the Beavers. Oregon State is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. It's also worth noting that they were just 1-9 ATS in conference road games last year, losing by an average of 13.1 ppg. Take Colorado! 

4* S Carolina/Alabama NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Alabama +

We are seeing some great value here on Alabama as a home dog against South Carolina. The Gamecocks have opened up the season 15-0 with a ridiculous 10-1 record ATS. Needless to say it has South Carolina way overvalued here against the Crimson Tide.

Alabama has a big time home court advantage and are 5-1 at home this season with the only loss coming to Kentucky. The Crimson Tide are a proven commodity with non-conference wins over Wichita State, Notre Dame and Clemson. They are also going to come out extremely motivated after opening up conference play with back-to-back losses. It's also worth noting that Alabama is 8-1 SU at home in their last 9 meetings against South Carolina. 

Crimson Tide are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 off a conference loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when coming off a conference home loss. South Carolina on the other hand is a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a win by 6 points or less, as they were fortunate to escape with a 69-65 win at home against Vanderbilt in their last contest. Take Alabama! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Ole Miss +

It's well known that LSU has one of the best individual players in college basketball in Ben Simmons and that has had the Tigers consistently overvalued by the books. LSU gets treated like an elite team, but the Tigers are just 9-6 overall. They followed up their big win against Kentucky with a loss at Florida and have struggled against similar teams to what they will face tonight in Ole Miss. 

The Rebels are quietly playing really good basketball. Ole Miss has opened up 2-1 in conference play with solid wins at home over Alabama and Georgia in their last two and are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall. The Rebels are 5-3 on the road this season and have a history of covering the number when away from home. Ole Miss is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when they come in having won 4 or 5 of their last 6. 

The Rebels also have performed well against similar type teams to LSU. They are 21-7 ATS after 15+ games against teams who average 77+ points/game and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games against teams who take good care of the basketball (14 or less turnovers/game). Take Ole Miss! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Kansas State -

Kansas State is being way undervalued at home due to the fact that they come into this game off 3 straight losses, all of which have come inside conference play. Needless to say the Wildcats are going to be extremely motivated to get their first conference win. While Kansas State is going to lay everything they have into this game, Texas Tech could find it hard to get up for this matchup. The Red Raiders just played their hearts out in back-to-back games against Iowa State and Kansas with the 10-point home loss to the Jayhawks coming just 3 days ago. 

The thing to keep in mind with Kansas State's poor start to conference play, two of their defeats came on the road to Texas and Oklahoma. The other a 4-point home loss to currently No. 10 ranked West Virginia. Adding to this is the fact that the Wildcats two non-conference losses both came against elite teams, losing on a neutral court to North Carolina and at Texas A&M. Add it up and 4 of their 5 defeats have come against teams currently ranked inside the Top 15. 

Wildcats are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after playing a road game where both teams scored 75 or more points, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home. Texas Tech on the other hand is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Kansas State! 

5* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia -

The Cavaliers are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite. Virginia is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, extending their home winning streak to 13. They have also won 33 of their last 34 at John Paul Jones Arena. While the Hurricanes enter having won 8 straight and are 13-1 overall, their only true road game this season was against Nebraska, which they only won by 5 points. Keep in mind Nebraska is a bottom feeder in the Big 10. 

Adding even more incentive to this game for Virginia is the fact that they come in off back-to-back losses at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers were favored in both of those games and are a dominant 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games off an upset loss as a favorite, winning by an average of 13.9 ppg. 

We also find a strong system backing the Cavaliers based on their resent road defeats. Home favorites off 2 or more upset losses as a road favorite are 87-42 (67%) ATS since 1997. Take Virginia! 

3* Ohio St/Indiana NCAAB ATS Annihilator on Ohio St +

Ohio State is showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Hoosiers. While Indiana comes in with an impressive 13-3 record and 3-0 mark in conference play, this is not the same caliber a team compared to just a week ago. That's because the Hoosiers recently lost second leading scorer James Blackmon Jr. You could see the impact of his loss in the near defeat at home against Wisconsin (59-58). 

Ohio State is flying under the radar right now, largely due to a poor start to the year, which saw them open 2-4 with 4 straight losses. That included defeats to the likes of Texas-Arlington and Louisiana Tech. They have since gone 9-1 with their only loss at UConn and they are currently riding a 7-game winning streak and fresh off an impressive 65-56 win at Northwestern, which is better win than people think. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Ohio State won this game outright.

Buckeyes are 34-19 ATS in their last 54 off an upset win as an underdog and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites in a game involving 2 strong teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game are just 52-96 (35%) ATS after scoring 60 or less over the last 5 seasons. Take Ohio State!  

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Florida St +

The Seminoles are showing some great value here as a near double-digit dog against the Hurricanes. That value is a result of Florida State having lost their last two games at Clemson and at home to North Carolina. This is a very young and talented team that is not only capable of covering this big spread, but beating Miami outright. 

The Hurricanes are an impressive 12-1 on the season, which is also playing into this inflated line. The thing that you have to keep in mind with Miami's strong start, is the schedule hasn't been all that challenging. Their lone loss came at home to Northeastern as a 16-point favorite, which is a good indicator that this is not an elite team. Last year Miami only won 81-77 as a 8.5-point home favorite and this is a far superior Florida State team than the one they fielded a year ago. 

Seminoles are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 off a conference home loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 with a total set at 150 to 159.5 points. Miami is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games off a conference win by 10 or more points and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after scoring 30 points or less in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take Florida State!

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Blowout on Iowa St - 

The Cyclones come into this game off a 76-69 win at home against Texas Tech, but failed to cover as an 11-point favorite. Baylor on the other hand enters off a 79-62 blowout win at home over Oklahoma State as a 9-point favorite. I believe this has created some exceptional value on Iowa State in a huge revenge spot. 

Last year the Cyclones lost both meetings against the Bears, falling 73-74 at Baylor and 70-79 at home. Iowa State brought back most of the core players from last year and you can be assured this is a game they have had circled on the calendar. Baylor has played well at home, but have really struggled on the road losing by 7 at Oregon, 19 at Texas A&M and 28 at Kansas (only 3 true road games). Iowa State has one of the best homecourt advantages in college basketball and I fully expect them to win this game going away. 

Cyclones are 11-4-1 ATS in last 16 vs team that's won more than 60% of their games, 5-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games off a home win, while Baylor is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a mere 0-6 ATS off a home win by 10 or more points. Take Iowa State! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Virginia -

Virginia comes into this game off a 68-70 upset loss at in-state rival Virginia Tech as a 12.5-point favorite. Needless to say the Cavaliers are going to be pissed off from that performance and will be out to make a statement in a huge rebound spot against Georgia Tech, a team they destroyed in recent years. Virginia won 64-45 at Georgia Tech in 2014 and last year crushed the Yellow Jackets 57-28 at home. 

Any time you get an elite team like the Cavaliers off an upset loss, chances are they are going to come back with one of their best efforts in their next game. In an earlier upset loss at George Washington, Virginia followed it up with a 82-57 win on a neutral site against Bradley. Georgia Tech is a quality team, but not on the same level as the Cavaliers. Keep in mind this is a team that has lost badly to the likes of Villanova (52-69) and Georgia (61-75). They are 8-1 at home, but that's due to an easy schedule. 

The Cavaliers are 14-4 ATS in the month of January over the last 3 seasons, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games after failing to cover the spread in their last game and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a road loss. Take Virginia! 

5* Cincinnati/SMU NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Cincinnati +

The Mustangs come into this game with a perfect 13-0 record and are overvalued because of it. SMU recently lost a key piece of their team, as guard Keith Frazier left the team prior to Saturday's game against South Florida. While the Mustangs won the game 72-58, they came no where close to covering the spread as a 25-point favorite. 

I think Frazier's departure is not only going to hurt them on the floor, but also have a negative impact mentally on this team. Even if he was still with the team, this is a lot of points to be giving a talented Cincinnati team. The Bearcats come in at 11-4, but have 3 losses by 7 points or less, including 2 by just 2-points to the likes of Butler and Iowa State. 

Cincinnati has all 5 starters back from last year's team that won both meetings against the Mustangs. The Bearcats won 56-50 at home as a 1-point dog and 62-54 at SMU as a 6.5-point dog.  Needless to say, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Cincinnati won this game outright. 

SMU is just 12-28 ATS in their last 40 home games against strong offensive teams that are scoring 77+ points/game and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bearcats are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing 3 straight at home and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games overall. Take Cincinnati!  

3* Ohio St/Northwestern ATS Main Event on Northwestern -

The simple fact that Northwestern is favored in this game really says a lot about how the oddsmakers feel about these two teams. The Wildcats have opened up 13-2 with their only 2 losses coming against elite teams in North Carolina and Maryland. This Northwestern team is the real deal and I look for them to take down the Buckeyes on their home floor tonight. The Wildcats are 9-1 at home this season. 

Keep in mind that Northwestern has played Ohio State tough at home in recent meetings, despite losing each of the last 4 meetings. All 4 of those defeats were by 10 points or less with 3 coming by 2-points or fewer. This is the best Wildcats team during this stretch and arguably the worst team the Buckeyes have fielded over the 5 year period. Ohio State has a big win over Kentucky, but lost by 20 in their only true road game against Connecticut and struggled to put away Illinois at home in their last contest, escaping with a 75-73 win. 

Buckeyes are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 road games win they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when listed with a line of +3 to -3. Wildcats on the other hand are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 after playing their previous game at home and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit home loss. Take Northwestern! 

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Seton Hall +

Villanova comes into this contest off 4 straight blowout wins, defeating Delaware by 30, Penn by 20, Xavier by 31 and Creighton by 14, which has resulted in a drastically inflated line against a talented Seton Hall team that has won 7 straight, which includes a win over Wichita State and 20-point victory at Marquette. 

With a huge road game on deck against Butler and having just played to big games against Xavier and Creighton, I look for Villanova to come out a bit flat against Seton Hall. I still expect the Wildcats to win this game, but I look for it to be much closer than the spread would indicate.

Keep in mind that Seton Hall has been playing lockdown defense of late, allowing just 61.7 ppg and Villanova has had some problems offensively early on. 

Wildcats are just 9-18 ATS in their last 27 after two straight games where they made 50% or more of their shot attempts, while the Pirates are 29-16 ATS in their last 45 road games after playing their last game at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record. Take Seton Hall! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on Syracuse -

I really like the value we are getting with the Orange as a mere 5-point home favorite against Clemson. Syracuse is being undervalued here due to coming into this game off back-to-back ugly losses on the road to Pittsburgh and Miami, plus the fact that they haven't covered in 3 straight games. 

Clemson was able to pull off a big upset at home in their last game, defeating Florida State 84-75 as a 2-point dog, which followed a cover as a 15.5-point dog at North Carolina. Prior to that they got destroyed by 23 at Georgia. This is also a team that has lost at Minnesota, who is way down this year. With 3 straight huge home games on deck against Louisville, Duke and Miami, this is simply a horrible spot for the Tigers against a highly motivated Orange team. 

Syracuse is 7-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by over 13.0 ppg, while Clemson is 1-4 on the road, getting outscored by nearly 8.0 ppg. Tigers are also 2-13 ATS in their last 15 off an upset win over a conference rival, 3-9 ATS last 12 vs team with a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games on Tuesday nights. Take Syracuse! 

5* SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina -

South Carolina has quietly put together a perfect 13-0 start to the 2015-16 season and I look for them to be extremely motivated when they take the floor for their SEC opener tonight against Auburn. Keep in mind that the Gamecocks went 9-3 in non-conference play last year and ended up starting out just 1-6 in SEC play, so there's no concern here for me with South Carolina coming in too confident. 

Another huge factor here, is Auburn is missing some key players with injuries. The Tigers will be without 3rd leading scorer T.J. Dunans and could also be without the services of T.J. Lang, who is questionable with a concussion. Dunans is a big loss, as he's one of Auburn's best all-around players, as he averages 12.4 ppg to go with 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks. It's also worth nothing the Tigers have struggled against quality teams this year. All 5 losses have come by 7 or more, including recent defeats by 18 to Harvard and 12 to Hawaii. 

Gamecocks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 road games after playing 2 straight games as a home favorite and 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points, winning these by an average of 17.4 ppg. Gamecocks are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers/game and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 versus teams who average 77+ points/game. Take South Carolina! 

4* Oklahoma/Kansas NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Oklahoma +

Both of these teams come in riding 12-game winning streaks. Oklahoma is 12-0, while the Jayhawks are 12-1 with the only loss coming in the opener against Michigan State. While Kansas has the advantage of playing at home, this is a lot of points to be laying against a Sooners team that is more than capable of going into Lawrence and pulling off the upset. 

You could actually argue that Oklahoma has played the tougher schedule to this point and they have really been impressive against elite teams. The Sooners have a beat Wisconsin by 17, Villanova by 23, Creighton by 13, Washington State by 26 and most recently held on for a 87-83 win at home against a very good Iowa State team. 

Each of the last 5 meetings in the series have been decided by 8-points or less, so you can really see the value we are getting here with the Sooners. Kansas is also a team that is consistently overvalued in conference play, as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Big 12 games. We also see that the Sooners are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 against elite teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field and holding opponents to 42% or worse. Take Oklahoma! 

4* Utah/Cal NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Cal -

The Golden Bears are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Utes. While Utah is the only team that's currently ranked in this matchup, Cal is every bit as talented as the Utes and won't be long before they are mainstays in the Top 25.

The Golden Bears are a perfect 10-0 on their home floor this season and just made easy work of a very good Colorado team by 14-points in their Pac-12 opener. Utah on the other hand lost at Stanford as a 5-point road favorite. This will now be the Utes second straight road game in a span of just 3 days. That's not an easy task to overcome, especially against a really good team like Cal. 

Golden Bears are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 home games when playing on their 3rd game in a week and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 65 points or less in 3 straight games. Utah on the other hand is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Cal! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Heavy Hitter on Marquette +

The Golden Eagles are showing some great value here as a decently priced road dog against Georgetown. Marquette was embarrassed on their home floor 63-83 by Seton Hall in their last contest, snapping a 9-game winning streak. The Hoyas on the other hand won rather convincingly in a 70-58 victory at DePaul as a 4-point favorite.

I believe we are seeing a big overreaction here with this line due to the last time these two teams took the floor. Keep in mind that the Golden Eagles had a similar poor performance at home in a 61-89 loss to Iowa earlier this season and they responded with wins over LSU and Arizona State on a neutral court in their next two games. 

Georgetown was undervalued against a DePaul team that wasn't as good as their record, so I wouldn't read too much into that easy win and cover. Keep in mind this team had failed to cover each of their previous 4. They also lost back-to-back home games against the likes of Monmouth and UNC-Asheville. 

Hoyas are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games when coming off a cover and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after playing 4 straight games as a favorite. The Golden Eagles are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. Take Marquette! 

3* Xavier/Villanova Early Bird NCAAB ATS Annihilator on Villanova - 

Villanova has owned the Big East the past two seasons and they aren't about to just hand it over to the likes of Xavier or Butler. I look for the Wildcats to come out and make a statement on their home floor against the undefeated Musketeers. 

Villanova is 10-2 with their only two losses coming against Oklahoma on a neutral floor and at Virginia. Those are two of the elite teams in college basketball right now. Xavier has some quality wins, but most of their damage has come at home. They were very fortunate to win 78-70 at Wake Forest in their last game, as they trailed by as 18 points. 

Villanova is worthy of being a Top 10 team right alongside Xavier and I believe they will be by seasons end. The Wildcats have won and covered 5 straight in this series and are a perfect 7-0 on their home floor this season. Each of the last 3 times they have hosted the Musketeers they have been at least a 8-point favorite. I just think there's too much value here Villanova. 

Wildcats are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 when playing against a team with a winning record, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games against a strong defensive team that is holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field and 31-13 ATS in their last 44 when listed as the favorite. Take Villanova! 

5* Big East Game of the Month on Georgetown - 

We are getting some great value here with the Hoyas as a mere 3-point road favorite against DePaul, as Georgetown is 13-1 against the Blue Demons in the last 14 meetings. The big reason for the low spread here, is this matchup comes on the heels of the Hoyas failing to cover 4 straight games, while DePaul enters off an impressive 82-61 win over George Washington as a 6-point dog. 

The thing to keep in mind with the Blue Demons most recent win, is this is a team that had previously lost 3 straight, including home losses to Arkansas-Little Rock by 22 points and Northwestern by 8 points. DePaul simply caught fire against George Washington, shooting 55.4% from the field. That sets them up in a great spot to fade, as the Blue Demons are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after a game where they shot 55% or better from the field. 

Georgetown has had some problems with inconsistency this season, but their struggles have come against lesser teams. The Hoyas went on the road and only lost by 4-points to Maryland and lost a heartbreaker by 2-points against Duke on a neutral court. They also have a 71-61 win over Wisconsin and 79-72 victory against Syracuse. I have little doubt the Hoyas will come to play in this one and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning home record. Take Georgetown! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Richmond +

The Spiders are showing some great value here as a road dog against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is 9-1 on the season, but haven't really beat anyone and have greatly benefited from playing 7 of their first 10 games at home (yet to play a true road game). The Red Raiders have been feasting on bad teams, as their last 5 games have come against the likes of Sam Houston State, Tennessee-Martin, South Dakota State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Arkansas-Little Rock. 

It's going to be difficult for the Red Raiders to adjust to the huge upgrade in competition and Richmond is more than capable of winning this game going away. The Spiders have already won outright on the road against Wake Forest 91-82 and have impressive wins over California (94-90) and Northern Iowa (82-67). 

Texas Tech is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 when they come in off 3 straight easy wins by 10 or more points, while the Spiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Richmond! 

3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on California -

This may seem like a lot of points for the Golden Bears to be laying at home against Davidson, but I look for California to have no problem covering this number. The Wildcats come in with an impressive 8-2 record, but that's because they have played a very soft schedule in non-conference play. Davidson has faced 2 legit opponents and haven't been able to keep them respectable. The Wildcats lost by 33-points at North Carolina and by 25 on a neutral site against Pittsburgh. I look for a similar type of domination for the Golden Bears at home in this one.

Keep in mind that Davidson is having to travel completely across the country for this matchup, which is only going to make it that much harder on them to keep this close. Cal may not be ranked, but this is a team that's loaded with NBA talent and one that nearly upset Virginia on the road in their last contest. The Golden Bears are a perfect 8-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 18.4 ppg. 

Davidson is 0-6 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take California! 

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on Northern Iowa -

Both of these teams find themselves in a tough spot playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set off a blowout loss last night in Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. Washington State got throttled by Oklahoma 88-60 and UNI lost 68-52 to Hawaii. I believe the Panthers are the much more equipped team to bounce back on no rest and are also the more battle-tested and talented team in this matchup. 

The Cougars come in with an overall record of 7-3, but they haven't really played anyone outside of Gonzaga at home and Oklahoma last night. They lost both of those games rather convincingly and it's also worth noting they lost at Idaho. This is a team that clearly struggles away from home. Northern Iowa has TWO wins over teams ranked in the Top 5 in the country. They beat No. 1 North Carolina 76-67 and recently knocked off No. 5 Iowa State 81-79. Another thing I like about the Panthers is they respond well off loss. Northern Iowa is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS off a defeat this season and that includes their win over Iowa State off a 21-point defeat at New Mexico. 

Washington State is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off a loss and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 neutral court games with a total of 140 to 149.5. The Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral court games and 6-0 in their last 6 road games off a loss by 10 more points. Take Northern Iowa! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Cal +

The Golden Bears are showing exceptional value here as a double-digit underdog against Virginia. Not a big surprise here to see the Cavaliers overvalued after back-to-back blowout wins over No. 14 West Virginia (70-54) and No. 12 Villanova (86-75). Even though Virginia knows Cal is a dangerous team, it's going to be tough for them to get up for this game after laying it all on the line in their last two. 

California had a couple of bad performances against San Diego State and Richmond, but those are the only two hiccups on their resume this season. The Golden Bears also come in playing with a ton of confidence, riding a 5-game winning streak. This is there first chance going up against a Top 25 team and I'm expecting their best effort of the season tonight. 

It's also worth noting that Cal plays with the same defensive intensity as Virginia. The Golden Bears are only giving up 65.4 ppg and opposing teams are shooting just 37.7% against them. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Golden Bears. Home favorites of 10 or more points who are shooting 36.5% or better from 3-point range and coming off 2 straight games where they made 55% or more of their field goal attempts are just 17-43 (28%) ATS against teams who shoot 32-36.5% from long-distance. Take California! 

3* NCAAB Situational No Doubt ATS Blowout on Notre Dame -

The Fighting Irish shouldn't have any problem covering this big spread against Youngstown State on Monday. Notre Dame is going to be motivated off a 73-80 loss to Indiana on Saturday and are 2-0 ATS this season when coming off a loss. 

Youngstown State is simply an awful team. They lost 46-105 at Michigan on Saturday, which was their 3rd loss this season by 22 or more points. They also recently lost by 31 at Purdue. Big key here is Youngstown State will be playing their 2nd straight on the road in a span of just 3 days, which is going to make it that much harder for them to keep this game respectable. 

Youngstown State is just 10-26 ATS in their last 36 when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing their previous game as a road dog. Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record. Take Notre Dame! 

3* Davidson/Pitt NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Pitt -

The Panther are showing some exceptional value here as a relatively small favorite against Davidson. The value here comes from the fact that this will be a neutral site game and that the Wildcats are 7-1 overall. The perception here is that we have two equally matched teams, as Pittsburgh is 8-1. 

However, a closer look at the schedule shows the Panthers are the far more impressive team. Davidson has feasted on an easy schedule, which is evident by the fact that they have been a double-digit favorite in 6 games and no line was posted in another due to inferior competition. The only time this team faced a legit opponent was North Carolina and they lost by 33 points. 

We can also see the gap in these two teams by looking at their common opponent in Eastern Washington, who they both played at home. Pittsburgh beat Eastern Washington by 33-points (84-51), while Davidson only won by 10 (96-86), despite shooting a ridiculous 60% from the field. 

Great system in play backing the Panthers, as neutral court favorites who are coming in off a home win where the team failed to cover as a favorite and are playing with 5 or 6 days of rest are 107-56 (66%) ATS since 1997! Take Pittsburgh!

5* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on Drake + 

I really like the value we are getting with the Bulldogs in a in-state matchup that will be played on a neutral court. While Drake is just 4-6 overall, they have been competitive in almost every game. Out of their 6 defeats, 4 have come by 8-points or less and they haven't lost one by more than the number listed here. 

Iowa is a good team, but I think this is a tough spot for the Hawkeyes. This will be their first game since losing 82-83 at Iowa State on 12/10, a game where they blew a 20-point lead and had a major collapse in the final minutes. Those kind of losses are difficult to come back from and adding to this is there figures to be some rust with the long lay off off. Keep in mind that while Iowa is 13-3 SU in the last 16 meetings against Drake, the Bulldogs have gone 10-5-1 ATS in these matchups. 

Iowa is also a team that typically underperforms in neutral site games, as they are just 3-11 in their last 14 on a neutral site. Hawkeyes are also just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 away from home after making 10 or more 3-pointers in 2 straight games. The Bulldogs on the other hand are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 33-14 ATS in their last 47 off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog. Take Drake! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Santa Clara +

My money will be on the Broncos as a decently priced road dog when they travel to take on Nevada tonight. Santa Clara got off to a miserable start, as they opened the season 0-7. However, they have bounced back nicely and won 4 straight, which includes a 62-45 win over Boston College as a 6-point dog.

You also have to keep in mind the Broncos played a tough schedule early and are actually the more battle-tested team in this matchup. You might also remember they took a very good Arizona team to the wire, losing 73-75 as a 24-point dog. 

Nevada is 7-3, but their wins have not been impressive to this point and the Wolf Pack were dealt a big blow leading up to this game, as talented big man A.J. West left the team. West was averaging 9.6 ppg, but his biggest impact game on the defensive end, where he was leading the team with 7.7 rpg and nearly 2 blocks a game. His loss is going to throw off the chemistry they had going with their rotation and leave them thin inside. 

The Wolf Pack come into this game off a 79-71 win at home against Drake, but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. Nevada is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 5-21 ATS in their last 26 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Santa Clara! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Texas Tech -

South Dakota State comes into this game with an impressive 9-1 SU record and perfect 7-0 ATS mark (not all games played had lines), which includes a recent 84-70 win at Minnesota as a 2.5-point dog. I believe it has the Jackrabbits way overvalued here in what is going to be there biggest test of the season.

Keep in mind that Texas Tech is also off to a strong start, as they come in 6-1 with their only loss being against a very good Utah team on a neutral court. The Red Raiders also made easy work of Minnesota, beating the Gophers 81-68 on a neutral court. 

A big key to this matchup will be defense and I look for Texas Tech to have a big advantage on that side of the ball, especially playing at home. The Red Raiders come in allowing 66.4 ppg against opponents that on average have scored 77.2 ppg. While South Dakota State is only giving up 64.3 ppg, their opponents are only scoring 66.4 ppg on average. 

The Red Raiders are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference home games and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest. We also find strong system in play, as home teams with a line of +3 to -3, who are coming off a win by 15 or more points against an opponent that has scored 75 or more in 3 straight games are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET TEXAS TECH! 

5* VCU/Georgia Tech NCAAB Vegas Insider on Georgia Tech -

The Yellow Jackets are showing some great value here at basically a pick'em at home against VCU. The Rams come into this contest off a 71-76 loss to Florida State and are now just 1-3 on the road compared to 4-0 at home. Georgia Tech has played their best basketball at home, as the Yellow Jackets are 4-1 and outscoring opponents on their home floor by 16.4 ppg. 

The Yellow Jackets have really been impressive on the offensive end at home, as they come in averaging 87.4 ppg and are shooting 49.2% from the field at home. VCU only averages 69.2 ppg on the road and are shooting a mere 40.8% away from home. Defensively these two teams are pretty equal, but I would give the slight edge to the Yellow Jackets, as they are holding opponents to 41.9% shooting against them at home, where the Rams are allowing 45.5% on the road. Georgia Tech should also control the glass, as they are outrebounding opponents by 12 rpg, while VCU is only outrebounding opponents by 2 rpg. 

The Rams are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Take Georgia Tech! 

3* NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Nebraska 

The Cornhuskers have one of the best homecourt advantages that not a lot people know about and we are finding Nebraska showing great value here as a pick'em at home against Rhode Island. The Cornhuskers are simply being way undervalued off an ugly 16-point road loss at Creighton.

Keep in mind that Nebraska's 4 losses this season have all come against quality opponents in Villanova, Cincinnati, Miami and Creighton. The only loss at home is to the Hurricanes by 5-points as a 5.5-point underdog. Rhode Island is 6-3 but have yet to play a true road game and have already lost at home twice as a favorite to Valparaiso and Providence. They also have a 23-point loss on a neutral site against Maryland. 

Rhode Island is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 in a game with a low total set at 130 to 139.5 points, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games (1-4 L5 vs team w/ winning home record) and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win. Cornhuskers are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 home games, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 at home after playing a game as a road dog and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite or pick'em of 3 points or less. Take Nebraska! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Month on Colorado -

Colorado is showing great value here as a 5-point favorite against BYU. The Buffaloes come into this game 7-1 with their only loss come against a very good Iowa State team, which they only lost by 6-points on a neutral site. Colorado is 5-0 at home and are winning at home by an average score of 86.0 to 67.6. 

BYU comes in with a respectable 6-2 record, but their strong start has been aided by an easy schedule to this point. Their only real test was at Utah and they lost that game 75-83 and it wasn't that close, as they trailed by 23 points at the half. The Cougars also lost their only other true road game at Long Beach State. 

The Buffaloes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off 5 or more consecutive wins, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the WCC. BYU on the other hand is just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 road games when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5 games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after leading by 15+ points at the half of their last contest. Take Colorado! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +

The Bearcats are showing great value here against the Musketeers as a decently priced road dog on Saturday. Cincinnati is 8-1 and their only loss of the season is a 2-point defeat to Butler. Xavier has opened an impressive 9-0 and are winning by an average of 19.2 ppg. However, this will be the Musketeers biggest challenge of the season. On top of that, this is a big rivalry game. 

Xavier comes in averaging an impressive 83.2 ppg, but will be going up against a stingy Cincinnati defense that is allowing just 58.4 ppg against teams who on average score 71.2 ppg. The Bearcats are also allowing opponents to shoot just 36.1% from the field and are outrebounding opponents by 10 boards a game. 

The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games overall, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games after playing 3 or more straight games at home and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Cincinnati! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Creighton -

The Bluejays are showing big time value here as a mere 5-point home favorite against the Cornhuskers. Creighton is in a prime bounce back spot after dropping back-to-back games in heartbreaking fashion. The Bluejays lost 77-79 at home to Arizona State and then fell 65-68 at Loyola-Illinois in their most recent contest. I don't see Creighton losing 3 straight, especially with this game being played at home and the back-to-back loses have provided a very favorable line to back the Bluejays. 

Nebraska has a couple of impressive loses of late against Cincinnati (61-65) and Miami (72-77), but those strong showings were a result of those teams not shooting well. The  Bearcats only shot 38.9% against the Cornhuskers and the Hurricanes made just 41.4%. I don't see that being the case here with Creighton coming into this game having made 52.3% of their field goal attempts at home. It's also worth noting that in Nebraska's only other true road game this season, they allowed Villanova to shoot 49.2% in a 24-point blowout loss. 

Nebraska is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games as an underdog or pick'em and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games after playing their previous game at home. The Bluejays on the other hand are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after losing 2 of their last 3 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Take Creighton! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on Toledo -

The Rockets are showing some great value here as a mere 2-point road favorite against Detroit. Toledo comes into this game having won 2 straight, including a big 71-69 road win at Wisconsin-Green Bay as a 2-point underdog. I look for the Rockets to carry over that momentum against a Detroit team that is picked to finish behind Wisc-GB in the Horizon League. 

Defense is one thing that travels well in all sports and the Rockets come into this game allowing just 71.5 ppg and are holding opposing teams to just 42.9% shooting from the field. I look for their ability to get stops to be the difference in this game, as the Titans don't play any defense. Detroit comes into this game allowing a ridiculous 84.2 ppg and have allowed 95+ on 3 separate occasions. Opposing teams are shooting 46.3% from the field and a ridiculous 43.9% from behind the 3-point line. 

Toledo is 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games off a road win and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 off an upset win as a road underdog. The Rockets are also a dominant 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games when they come in having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Take Toledo! 

4* NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Northern Iowa -

The Panthers come into this game off an ugly 15-point loss (67-82) at Richmond on Saturday and I believe it has them showing some great value here as a small road favorite against George Mason in a huge bounce back spot. The defeat snapped a 5-game winning streak for Northern Iowa, which included that big 71-67 home win over then No. 1 North Carolina. 

George Mason has a couple of surprising wins over Ole Miss and Oklahoma State, but outside of that they have been inconsistent. The Patriots have a number of ugly losses on their resume, losing to the likes of Colgate, Mercer, Manhattan and Towson State.

Defensively, George Mason comes in allowing just 63.9 ppg, but that has a lot to do with who they have played, as the Patriots opponents thus far are only averaging 69.9 ppg. Northern Iowa has one of the more efficient offenses in the country, as they are averaging 79.9 ppg and shooting 51.6% from the field and 43.6% from long distances. I just don't see George Mason being able to slow down the Panthers and do enough here offensively to keep this game close enough to cover. 

Northern Iowa is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after playing their previous game on the road and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games after 3 straight games where they committed 14 or fewer turnovers . The Panthers are also 16-4 ATS in their last 20 against teams who allow 64 or less points/game and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 against teams who average 64 or less points per game. Take Northern Iowa! 

4* Oklahoma/Villanova NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Oklahoma +

I really like the value here with Oklahoma catching points in this neutral site showdown between two Top 10 teams that have yet to lose on the season. Oklahoma has had some cupcake games along the way to their 5-0 start, but they also have signature wins on their resume. The Sooners won 84-78 at Memphis to open the season and embarrassed Wisconsin 65-48 at home. 

While Villanova has been equally impressive in route to their 7-0 start, this will be the Wildcats biggest challenge to date and I think the Sooners have the offensive fire-power to pull off the upset. Oklahoma comes in averaging a ridiculous 88.2 ppg on 48.9% shooting from the field and 44.6% shooting from long distance. Villanova isn't far behind at 79.0 ppg, but are only 30.9% from long distance and will be facing an Oklahoma defense that is holding opponents to just 25.4% shooting on 3-pointers. 

Oklahoma is a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons after playing 2 straight games as a home favorite and are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 against excellent teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field and holding opponents to 42% or worse. 

We also find a strong system in playing backing the Sooners. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off 2 straight covers as a favorite against an opponent off 2 straight covers as a double-digit favorite are 30-8 (79%) ATS since 1997. Take Oklahoma! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Illinois -

I think we are getting some decent value here on the Fighting Illini at home against an inferior opponent. Illinois comes into this game off back-to-back losses against two top notch programs in Iowa State and Notre Dame. They failed to cover the spread in both contests, but were competitive in both, losing by just 11 to Iowa State and 5 to Notre Dame. 

Needless to say the Illini are going to be highly motivated for a win and Western Carolina is a team I think they can run up the score on. We have already seen the Catamounts lose by 25 at Cincinnati and 23 at South Carolina. Their offense really struggled in both of those games, as they shot just 37.1% from the field against the Bearcats and 28.4% against the Gamecocks. That's a good sign that they just don't have the talent to play with the big boys and while Illinois isn't an elite power 5 team, they should have no problem winning here by at least 12 points. 

Western Carolina is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 1-7  ATS in their last 8 non-conference games (rarely have lined games). Illinois is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their previous game at home. Take Illinois! 

4* Ark/WF NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Arkansas +

Love the value we are getting here with the Razorbacks as a decently priced road dog against Wake Forest. Arkansas is just 3-3 and have yet to secure a signature win, which is going to have them coming out extremely motivated here against a Demon Deacon team that already has wins over Indiana and UCLA. 

The Razorbacks have been competitive in all 3 losses, as each has come by 10-points or less. Wake Forest on the other hand hasn't really blown anyone out. The Demon Deacons largest margin of victory is 8-points at Bucknell. They only beat Maryland Baltimore County by 5 at home, Rutgers by 1 on the road and lost at home to Richmond 82-91. It's also worth noting that these two teams played last year at Arkansas and the Razorbacks won convincingly 83-53. I know it's not the same teams, but you can see the value. 

Wake Forest last game was at Rutgers and the Demon Deacons are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after playing their last game on the road. Wake Forest is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the SEC. Take Arkansas! 

3* Gonz/Wash St Late Night NCAAB ATS Annihilator on Gonzaga -

This may seem like a lot of points for Gonzaga to be laying on the road against a Washington State team that has started out 4-0, but that's exactly where the value lies in this game. The Cougars are not anywhere close to as good as their 4-0 start might lead on and will be exposed here against the Bulldogs. Keep in mind that Gonzaga is a team many believe is at worst a Sweet 16 club, while Washington State is picked to finish in the bottom three of the Pac-12. 

The easiest way to see the gap here between these two teams is to look at their games against Northern Arizona, who each played at home. Gonzaga won 91-52 as a 25-point favorite, while the Cougars won 82-70 as a 10.5-point favorite.

That game against Northern Arizona is arguably the best team Washington State has played, so this is a huge jump up in competition and one I don't think they are ready for. Keep in mind these two teams have played each of the last two years and the Bulldogs won both by at least 15 points. I don't see any reason to expect a different outcome in this one. Take Gonzaga! 

5* Indiana/Duke Big/Ten ACC Vegas Insider Top Play on Indiana +

Even against a top caliber opponent like Indiana, the books are going to shade the line in favor of Duke, especially at home. I absolutely love the value we are getting with the Hoosiers as a double-digit dog against the Blue Devils tonight. Indiana is 5-2, but could just as easily be 7-0. Their two losses, both against quality teams in Wake Forest and UNLV, have come by a combined 7-points. 

Duke's only played 3 legit opponents this season. They lost to Kentucky 63-74 and barely held on for wins against VCU (79-71) and Georgetown (86-84), failing to cover the spread in all 3. Indiana isn't just capable of covering this spread, but I could see them winning this game outright and ending Duke's 15-year non-conference home winning streak. 

Part of the reason we are seeing a big number here is the fact that Indiana is just 2-4 ATS in their last 5 lined games. However, that actually sets them up in a very profitable spot, as the Hoosiers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. It's also worth noting that Duke comes in off a 85-52 win against Utah State and are just 2-5 ATS in they last 7 off a SU win by more than 20 points. Take Indiana! 

4* FSU/Iowa NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Iowa -

Iowa is showing some great value here as a relatively small home favorite. The Hawkeyes have one of the more underrated home court advantages, as they are 29-8 at home over the last 3 seasons, which includes a 2-0 start to this year. 

After a couple of hard fought losses against Dayton (77-82) and Notre Dame (62-68), Iowa responded with a 84-61 blowout win over Wichita State as a mere 5-point favorite. When the Hawkeyes get their offense going they are extremely tough to beat. Florida State has allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot at least 46% from the field and that's concerning given they haven't really played anyone. The Seminoles biggest test so far this season was a neutral court game against Hofstra and they lost 77-82 as a 8-point favorite. 

The Seminoles are a mere 9-21 ATS in their last 30 after playing 3 straight games as a favorite, 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 against a team with a winning percentage over 60% and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 against the Big Ten. Take Iowa! 

4* Maryland/UNC NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Maryland +

I think we are seeing some exceptional value here with the Terrapins, as North Carolina is getting too much respect here simply for playing at home. I actually think Maryland is the more talented of the two teams and have an excellent shot at pulling off the upset.

The Tar Heels came into the season ranked No.1 and we have already seen them lose on the road to UNI and struggled to put away the likes of Northwestern and Kansas State. I just don't think this team is as good as the hype surrounding them and the fact that they haven't covered 4 straight is a good sing they are consistently being overvalued by the books.

The Terrapins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the ACC, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. North Carolina on the other hand is 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 home games, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Maryland!