Sports Picks & Predictions

3* No Doubt Rout on Minnesota -

Nebraska-Omaha has been on a five game run, but they have benefited from a soft schedule. Four of those five games have come against teams that do not even play division one basketball. They also benefited from an unsustainable shooting percentage, and I think that ends tonight against the Golden Gophers. Minnesota has held opponents to a mere 62 points per game at home, while scoring an average of 78.9 points in those games.

The Mavericks have struggled against good opponents. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record. Their defense has been soft this year, allowing an average of 76.2 points per game on the road. They are at a big disadvantage on the boards in this matchup. The Gophers are +5 in rebounding margin at home, while Nebraska-Omaha is -3 when playing on the road. Minnesota has played a much stronger schedule than the Mavericks, and the talent gap between these teams will show on the scoreboard.

Minnesota is 9-2 ATS at home when coming off a home win. They are also 15-6 ATS when coming off a win regardless of venue. The Gophers are undefeated straight up and against the spread at home this season. Minnesota is a great ball control team averaging just 10 turnovers per game at home, while the Mavericks have averaged 14 turnovers per game on the road. Nebraska-Omaha has yet to face a defense as talented as Minnesota, and I expect turnovers to be a major issue for them in this game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Texas State +

This line seems to be overvaluing the Utes. There have not been many games on the schedule that look very challenging for Utah, aside from their last game against a BYU team that we now know was overrated coming into the season. That was a big win over a rivalry opponent, and I have the Utes playing in a letdown situation tonight. Its likely Utah is still going to win this game, but Texas State should give them a scare, and 15 points is simply too many to pass up.

The Bobcats are a great ball control team. They average just 13 turnovers per game. They run a slow paced game, so statistically they may not immediately look like a strong team offensively, but the talent is certainly there. Texas State has a positive number in rebounding margin, averaging 33 boards per game while opponents average just 31 per game. The Bobcats are shooting over 44 percent from the field on the road this year, and have been lethal from beyond the three point line.

Texas State is 13-3 against the spread in road games when coming off a double-digit loss. They are also 12-3 ATS when playing a second consecutive road game or more. You should play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Utah when they are shooting 32 to 36.5 percent on three point attempts and playing against a defense that has allowed over 36.5 percent on three point attempts. This system is 166-102 (62%) against the spread. This angle is extremely significant because the Bobcats vulnerability has been their perimeter defense, but the Utes are not a big scoring team from the outside.

4* Vegas Insider on Morehead St -

The advantages for Morehead State in this game are big. First, they have dominated opponents in rebounding margin, especially when playing at home. The Eagles are 3-1 in home games, averaging 45 rebounds per game with 16 coming on the offensive end of the court. Meanwhile, South Dakota has been losing the rebounding margin.

Another problem for the Coyotes is their lack of pressure defense. South Dakota is averaging just five steals per game, and without any kind of pressure defense this game will get out of hand early. Morehead State averages 86 points per game at home. With their significant rebounding advantage, and their ability to draw fouls they are going to get extra shot attempts and score more points against South Dakota. The Eagles average 68 shot attempts per game at home while South Dakota is averaging just 55 attempts from the field.

The Eagles are coming off a pair of tough losses, but I expect them to bounce back with a strong performance tonight. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss. South Dakota has lost four consecutive games coming into this matchup, and they are showing no signs of improvement. Expect Morehead State to have a lot more shot attempts from the field and free throw line in this game, making the single digit spread an easy number to cover.

3* No Doubt Rout on DePaul -

The Blue Demons have several significant matchup advantages in this game. It starts on the defensive end of the court. Houston Baptist has allowed an average of 77.7 points per game this year, and that number bumps up to 80.7 points surrendered when they are playing on the road. The Huskies are 1-6 in road games this season, and defending a DePaul team that averages 78.6 points per game will be no easy task to accomplish.

Houston Baptist has struggled to get points on the board in road games, averaging a mere 61.3 points per game. The Huskies are negative in rebounding margin this season, while the Blue Demons sit with a +4 figure in that area. DePaul is a great ball control team averaging 14 turnovers per game. They face a Huskies team that has a poor pressure defense, getting just four steals per game.

Against common opponents this season Houston Baptist is 0-3. They have committed an average of 18.3 turnovers in those games, and have been getting crushed on the boards. The Huskies are a poor three point shooting team, averaging just 30.8 percent on their attempts. DePaul on the other hand, has shot 37 percent from beyond the three point line. Getting open shots should not be an issue in this game since the Huskies have a poor perimeter defense. Houston Baptist has allowed opponents to shoot 37.3 percent on three point attempts in road games this year.

4* Heavy Hitter on Western Michigan +

The Drake Bulldogs are not as good as their 6-3 record, and they have not received a lot of benefit when playing at home this year. The Bulldogs are 2-2 at home straight-up, and 1-2 against the spread in those games. They have lost two straight, and are shooting below 40 percent from the field in their last two outings.

Western Michigan has been solid defensively this year. They are holding opponents to just 62.2 points per game. They have played a tough schedule, and and have one common opponent with the Bulldogs. The Broncos have a six point win, while Drake suffered a 12 point loss against New Mexico State. The Bronco's stingy perimeter defense will be difficult for the Bulldogs to overcome since they rely heavily on their three-point shooting ability to win games.

Drake is 0-6 ATS when coming off a home loss by 10 points or more. The Bulldogs are also 4-15 ATS in home games when coming off a performance shooting 20 percent or worse on three point attempts. The Broncos on the other hand are 4-0 ATS when coming off a loss, and I think they will put on a strong showing at the Knapp Center tonight.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UAB -

Chattanooga has four wins this season, only one of which has come against a division one school, and it was against the 4-8 IUPUI Jaguars. The Mocs have been blown out by a double-digit margin in five of their seven losses this season. Chattanooga is a very bad team, and they are up against a Blazers team that is 8-2 on the year and coming off four consecutive wins.

This game has blowout written all over it. The Blazers should score at will against a Chattanooga team that has allowed an average of 88 points per game on the road. The Mocs are 1-6 in road games, while the Blazers are a perfect 6-0 at home. UAB has averaged 78.9 points per game against opponents who have surrendered an average of just 72.4 points so they should be able to put up huge offensive numbers against Chattanooga tonight.

The Blazers are 28-13 ATS in home games when coming off a performance in which they scored 80 points or more. UAB has dominated the boards this year averaging 50 rebounds per game, 16 on the offensive glass, while allowing opponents just 33 rebounds in those games. That +17 figure in rebounding margin gives them a big advantage against any opponent they face. The Blazers have also been great at avoiding turnovers, and they should score at-will in this matchup against the Mocs.

4* No Brainer on UMass -

UMass might be one of the most underrated teams in the country right now. They have yet to garner any respect from the oddsmakers, and that has led to an 8-1 ATS record this season. The Minutemen are a perfect 9-0 straight up, with impressive wins over Boston College, New Mexico, Clemson and BYU. They have played a tough schedule and have been winning in dominating fashion all year.

Ohio has played a soft schedule through the first nine games of the season. Their 10 point loss against Ohio State seems to be earning the Bobcats a little too much credibility, but I don't put a lot of stock in that game. It was against an in-state opponent, and came early in the season when teams are still working out their early season issues. The Bobcats were crushed by 17 points against a very mediocre Oakland team, so I can only imagine how bad things will be against a tough opponent like UMass.

UMass has dominated the offensive glass, and they have done a great job of drawing fouls. Those extra shot attempts from winning the rebounding margin, and points from the free throw line are more than enough of an advantage to cover such a small line. UMass is no stranger to playing on the road this year, so I don't expect Ohio to draw much benefit from home court advantage. The Minutemen are a perfect 6-0 on the road, and it will take a better team than the Bobcats to end their undefeated record.

This matchup fits into a system to play on a team like UMass that has beaten the spread by 30 or more points combined in their last five games when they are a team from a second tier division 1 conference and playing against an opponent from a mid-major conference. This system is 57-26 (69%) against the spread.

5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Tennessee -

The Volunteers have three losses coming into this game, but all three of those games have been played against very good opponents, and their margin of loss has been in the single digits. Those losses have also come either on the road or a neutral court games. Tonight they get to play host to an NC State team that is nowhere near as good as their 7-2 record would indicated. The Wolfpack have yet to win a game over decent opponent. Their last three wins have come against teams that are a combined 12-20 on the season.

The Wolfpack have a double-digit loss on the road against Cincinnati, and they were beat in overtime against North Carolina Central. The Volunteers will easily be one of the best opponents they have faced, and I expect them to struggle mightily on the road in this game. Tennessee has been dominant at home this year scoring 83 points per game, while their defense has held opponents to a mere 63.7 points per game. That has led to a 4-0 record in home games. The Volunteers respond well when coming off a loss. After losing to UTEP they had a chance for revenge against Xavier, and they took full advantage by putting a 15-point beat down on the Musketeers.

The Wolfpack are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, while the Volunteers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played at home. Tennessee is also 13-5 ATS when coming off a straight-up loss. Mark Gottfried is 3-14 ATS as a head coach when coming off a close home win by three points or less. NC State was lucky to squeak by (5-6) Detroit, and I don't think that luck will continue today against this undervalued Volunteers team.

3* Oddsmakers Error on New Mexico State +

There is a lot of value on the Aggies in this rivalry game against the Lobos. New Mexico has already been a big letdown this season, dropping games against UMass and Kansas, both by 16 points or more. Defense has been the issue for the Lobos, allowing 72 points per game. They will struggle to slow down their in-state rival in this matchup because the Aggies are averaging 75.2 points per game this season.

The Lobos have seriously under-performed against the oddsmakers expectations this year. They are just 2-4 against the spread, yet they still find themselves laying a big margin in this matchup that has historically gone either way as far as the ATS winner is concerned. This is a rematch game for the Aggies, who lost by just nine points earlier this season in a game that was much closer than the final score. I expect New Mexico State to play another close game against the Lobos, and it is very unlikely they will have another 38.7 percent shooting performance in round two between these teams.

The Aggies are a hot team right now, posting a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games. The Lobos on the other hand are 2-6 in their last eight games against non-conference opponents. New Mexico is also 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. The Lobos have played a soft schedule, and they are a serial under-performer against good teams. They have a 1-5 ATS record in their last six games against teams winning 60% of their games or more.

3* No Doubt Rout on Charlotte +

The Florida State Seminoles are getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers. Charlotte is a very good team. They are 7-2 overall this season, and 6-1 against the spread. The 49ers are averaging an impressive 77.1 points per game, and they will easily be one of the best offensive teams Florida State has seen this season.

The 49ers are a great rebounding team. They are +7 in rebounding margin, while the Seminoles are just +3 against an inferior schedule. Charlotte is also a great foul drawing team, and extra rebounds, combined with extra attempts from the free throw line gives them a very significant advantage in this game.

If that wasn't enough, Charlotte has also done a better job of controlling the ball this season. They average 14 turnovers per game and are only improving in that area as the season progresses. They have had 14 or less turnovers in each of their last three games. The Seminoles on the other hand average 17 turnovers per game and they have forced less than 10 turnovers from their opponents in three of their last five games.

The 49ers are 12-4 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons, and they are up against a Seminoles team that is just 2-10 ATS when playing their first game in the last seven days or more. You should play against favorites like Florida State when they are holding opponents to under 40 percent shooting and they are committing 14.5 to 17.5 turnovers per game when they are facing an opponent that is a good defensive team allowing just 40 percent to 42.5 percent from opponents, and they are a good ball handling team committing less than 14.5 turnovers per game. This system is 117-63 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Kansas State -

The Wildcats have a significant advantage over Troy in this game, and I am surprised to see this line as low as it is. This should easily be a 15+ point victory for Kansas State when they face a Troy team that averages a mere 58.7 points per game on the road. The Wildcats defense has played extremely well this season, holding opponents to 61.2 points per game overall, and 59.2 points when playing at home.

The Wildcats are +2 in rebounding margin, while the Trojans are -4 on the boards. Those extra rebounds should result in extra shot attempts for Kansas State, and against a Troy defense that has allowed 70 points per game on the road I think it gives Kansas State a very significant advantage. With the Wildcats outstanding defense, combined with the fact that they are playing against a poor defensive team on the road, I think they should easily walk away from this game with a big win.

There is a very large talent gap between the Big 12 and Sun Belt conferences. The Trojans may be 4-3 on the year, but they have played just one team from a major conference, and they ended up losing that game by 15 points. The Wildcats are hot, having won four straight games. Troy hasn't played a game in over a week, and I think Kansas State's matchup last Tuesday keeps them looking fresh on the court.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Manhattan -

The Jaspers are off to a great start this season posting a 6-2 overall record, including a 5-0 run on the road. They have been scoring at will against virtually every opponent they face, averaging 77 points per game. They face an NC-Wilmington team that has really struggled with their shot this season. The Seahawks have two games shooting under 30 percent from the field, and they have shot well under 45 percent in over half of their games this season.

Manhattan has a knack for stepping up their level of play against winning teams. They are 14-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. When their opponent is only a marginal winning team (between 51% to 60%) the Jaspers tighten up to a 9-1 ATS record. The Seahawks are a poor pressure defense team, getting just six steals per game. I don't think NC-Wilmington has an answer for Manhattan's George Beamon. The senior guard/forward averages over 20 points per game for the Jaspers, and he is shooting over 90 percent from the free throw line.

The Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Manhattan has posted a 23-7 ATS record in road games when playing against a team with a winning record at home. The Jaspers are also 13-5 ATS overall dating back to last season. This Manhattan team has been continuously undervalued by the oddsmakers, and we will continue to ride the Jaspers until they give us a reason to do otherwise.

3* Main Event on Syracuse -

The Orange are a perfect 9-0 this year and have quickly earned a reputation as one of the best teams in the country. Their size and speed give them an advantage over any opponent on the court, and I just can't see St. Johns being able to keep this game close. The Red Storm have been horrible to back when coming off a win, posting a 1-8 ATS record.

This game is going to come down to ball control, and Syracuse will have a huge advantage. The Orange average almost double the number of steals per game than the Red Storm. They are a completely different caliber team than St. Johns which is why I think they will easily pick up a win on the road today. Syracuse is +5 in overall rebounding margin, and +7 on the offensive glass. Their ability to outrebound St. Johns should afford them more shot attempts, and with the Orange shooting 49.1 percent from the field in road games that should make covering a 4.5 point line a very simple task.

Syracuse has dominated the non-conference portion of their schedule. They are 14-2 ATS after two consecutive non-conference games. They are also 11-3 ATS after three straight games committing 14 turnovers or less. St Johns is coming off a strong defensive performance against Fordham, and I think that has earned them a little too much respect from the oddsmakers. The Red Storm are 2-12 ATS after a game allowing 60 points or less.

4* No Brainer on Illinois-Chicago +

There is a lot of value on Illinois-Chicago as a double-digit underdog in this matchup with SE Missouri State. I don

5* Vegas Insider on New Mexico State +

The Aggies have several key advantages in this game. They are an excellent rebounding team, pulling in 36 boards per game, with 11 on the offensive end of the court. Drake has struggled on the offensive glass, getting outrebound by three boards per game at home this season. Also, the Bulldogs have played several Division III schools to pad there statistics, and I think it is very unlikely they will be able to match their 51.1 percent shooting from the field against the Aggies.

New Mexico State is great at drawing fouls. They average 31 free throw attempts per game, while Drake gets to the line and average of just 19 times per game. I think the Aggies will get several of the Bulldogs players in foul trouble early, and they should easily pull away down the stretch. I don

3* Main Event on Kentucky +

The Wildcats are clearly the better team, and I think they will head to North Carolina and pick up a win in their first true road game of the season. We will take the points since they are on the road, but Kentucky is clearly the more talented team. The Wildcats are young, and the first 10 games of the season were a great opportunity for a new group of players to get used to being on the same team. The Wildcats two losses are very respectable, losing by just four points against Michigan State and five points against Baylor.

North Carolina has been wildly inconsistent this year. They have a loss to Belmont in a game they were a 14-point favorite. They also have suffered a four point loss against UAB. Much like the Wildcats, North Carolina is a young team. However, the Tar Heels did not benefit from signing four McDonald

4* Heavy Hitter on Tennessee +

The Wichita State Shockers have had a bad habit of getting off to a slow start, and against a hungry team like Tennessee that will be a big problem. The Shockers have been down at the half several times this season. Tennessee is one of the most improved teams in the SEC this season, and they are certainly talented enough to hang on to an early lead. Even if the Shockers are able to get off to a better start today, I don

3* No Doubt Rout on VCU -

The VCU Rams have a great pressure defense. They force a lot of turnovers, and that will be a problem for a small school like UNI. The Panthers took in-state rival Iowa State to overtime last week, and I think that performance has bought them a little too much credit from the oddsmakers. The Panthers have always played their in-state rival in a close game, and I don

4* No Brainer on Colorado -

Colorado picked up a huge win over Kansas in their last game and they now find themselves ranked in the top 25. The Buffaloes have a 9-1 record this season, and they are a perfect 7-0 on home games. Colorado has averaged 80.3 points per game at home this season, and Elon lacks the offensive talent to match that number today.

The Buffaloes defense is allowing just 65.6 points per game. They are an outstanding rebounding team on both ends of the court. They average 11 offensive rebounds per game, and combining those second chance attempts with their 48.2 percent shooting from the field at home and this game should be a blowout. Elon is -8 in rebounding margin on the road, while the Buffaloes have a +11 rebounding margin in home games.

Colorado is 11-3 ATS when playing only their second game in the last eight days. They are also 15-6 ATS after three or more consecutive wins. Elon on the other hand has posted a 1-11 ATS record in road games when they are coming off two straight games with nine or less offensive rebounds. Colorado is a very good team, and with home court advantage in the mile high altitude they should have no problem winning this game in a blowout.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Maryland -

When you look at performances against common opponents the Terrapins have performed much better than Boston College. Maryland has a four-point win on a neutral court over Providence, while Boston College has a four-point loss against the Friars. Boston College comes into this game with three wins, but all three of those wins have been close games, and they were against very soft opponents.

The biggest difference maker in this game will be defense. Boston College is allowing over 80 points per game at home this year. The Terrapins on the other hand have held opponents to just 65.3 points per game on the road. That 15-point difference is more than enough to make up for the extra three points the Eagles average offensively. I don't expect home court advantage to provide much of a boost. The Eagles have wins over Florida Atlantic and Sacred Heart at home, but both by slim margins. They also have a loss to Toledo in a game they were favored by 8.5 points.

The Eagles are a very poor rebounding team. They are -5 in the rebounding margin, while the Terrapins are +7 in that category. The Terrapins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games, and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against ACC opponents. The Eagles seem like they have already thrown the towel in on the season. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall, and 1-4 ATS when coming off a straight-up loss. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the road team is 7-3 ATS.

4* Vegas Insider on Duquesne +

This looks like a trap game for Penn State backers. The Duquesne Dukes have a lot of scoring potential this year, and they should easily keep pace with the Nittany Lions on a neutral court. The Dukes are scoring an impressive 81.5 points per game, and with Penn State giving up 77.5 points per game on the road I think there is a lot of value on Duquesne plus the points.

Another key factor swinging in Duquesne's photos is efficiency. The Dukes are a team that stays out of foul trouble, and they don't turn the ball over very often. Penn State is not a very turnover prone team, but they have had their issues with foul trouble. The Dukes have four players averaging double-digit scoring, with two of them put up a lot of points in the paint. I think they will challenge the Nittany Lion's big men, and get to the line early and often.

The Dukes are 15-5 ATS in road games when coming off a home win where they scored 85 points or more. I don't think Duquesne will be intimidated by facing a Big Ten opponent. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Big Ten. In fact, playing a major school like Penn State should only add motivation for the Dukes.

3* Main Event on Dartmouth +

Illinois has not had a lot of success covering these over-inflated double-digit lines this year. They have lost three of their last four games against the spread. Tonight they face a very underrated Dartmouth team. The Big Green are averaging 77 points per game this season, and they should have no problem staying within the 17 points they are being spotted.

Dartmouth is an outstanding shooting team. They are averaging 47.6% from the field, and even the Illini defense will struggle to slow them down. The Big Green will also have a rebounding advantage in this game. Dartmouth is averaging seven rebounds per game more than their opponents and Gabas Maldunas has been dominant on the boards, pulling in 9.7 rebounds per game.

Illinois is 4-13 ATS in home games when coming off a game where they covered the spread. The Illini are also 9-19 ATS when coming off one or more consecutive overs. The Illini have played nine games this season, while Dartmouth comes into this matchup with fresher legs having played just six games. Three of Illinois last four games have been decided by a single-digit margin, and I don't think they will shoot over 61% like they did against Auburn. Take the points on Dartmouth because this one should be much closer than the oddsmakers expect.

4* No Brainer on Rhode Island +

Rhode Island is the better team, and I am not buying into any home court advantage for a small school like Detroit. The Titans are a poor team defensively, allowing an average of 74.7 points per game. They have played a fairly weak schedule, so it says a lot that they are allowing more points than their opponents offensive average. Detroit's scoring average is also very misleading thanks to some cupcake games at home where they were able to run up the score.

The Rams have a definite size advantage in this game. They are an excellent rebounding team, and they do a great job of avoiding turnovers. Rhode Island is outrebounding opponents by five boards per game on average. They have played a much stronger schedule than the Titans, facing the likes of Arizona and Providence. The Rams are not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers in this game, and their is a lot of value on them as an underdog against a much weaker team.

Detroit is 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games, so clearly home court has not been an advantage for the Titans in a long time. The Titans are coming off an embarrassing road loss against Toledo. They are 5-15 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog. The Rams on the other hand are 10-2 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on George Mason +

Oklahoma might be the most overrated team in the country right now. They have a 7-1 record, but their most impressive win came by a single point in a neutral court battle with Seton Hall. They lost to Michigan State, and have yet to play another team worth mentioning. The Sooners defense has been horrible when they are playing away from home. They have allowed an average of 81.7 points in those games.

George Mason is playing in a great spot to pull off an upset against the Sooners. We will take the points, but it is hard not to like the Patriots chances with their outstanding defense. They have held opponents to just 64 points per game this season. The Patriots have out rebound opponents by four per game, while the Sooners are being out rebound by one board per game against a very soft schedule.

George Mason is 19-7 ATS when coming off a straight up loss. The Patriots are also 35-18 ATS in road games after two straight games giving up nine or less offensive rebounds. Oklahoma on the other hand is 7-18 ATS in road games after three straight wins by 10 points or more. Oklahoma's recent win streak over Little Rock, Texas A&M CC and Mercer has earned them too much respect from the oddsmakers. Take the points because this should be a very close game.

3* No Doubt Rout on Colorado

The Jayhawks have played one of the most difficult schedules in college basketball to open the season, and it won't get any easier today when they are in the high altitude in Boulder, Colorado. The Buffaloes are off to an impressive 8-1 start this season. They have yet to lose a game at home, and there should be plenty of motivation from the home crowd with a ranked opponent in town.

Colorado is averaging 81.2 points per game at home, but the strength of this Buffaloes team has been their defense. They are holding opponents to a mere 64.9 points. Expect Kansas to struggle today since they area very young team that has not been playing well recently. They lost to Villanova, and almost blew their last game against UTEP. They have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, and they are facing a Buffaloes team that has covered the spread in three of their last four games.

Kansas lives and dies by their ability to out rebound their opponents. That is a battle they will lose today against Colorado. The Buffaloes are pulling in 40 rebounds per game, and when playing at home their opponents have averaged just 27 rebounds against them. Colorado is 11-1 ATS against teams that are outrebounding opponents by four or more per game. They are also 5-2 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Arkansas -

The Arkansas Razorbacks are off to a phenomenal 5-2 start this season. They have a big win over Minnesota on a neutral court, and they have won in blowout fashion in their four home games this season. Clemson is coming into this game overrated thanks to a 7-1 record. The only good team the Tigers have faced was also their only loss of the season. Clemson lost by six-points on a neutral court against UMass.

I think home court advantage at a big school like Arkansas will give them a very significant advantage in this game. The Razorbacks are averaging 93.7 points per game. They have earned that average by playing a very strong schedule to start the season. Along with their game against Minnesota, the Razorbacks have faced a very good Cal Bears team, and the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Clemson's soft schedule has made there defense look better than it is, and I don't see a scenario where they can continue to allow under 60 points to their opponent in this game.

The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record. When coming off three of more consecutive home games, the Tigers have a 2-6 ATS record on the road. The Razorbacks on the other hand have posted a 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning record, and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UMass -

The UMass Minutemen are a very underrated team this season. They are off to a perfect 7-0 start, and they have big wins over quality opponents like Boston College, New Mexico and Clemson. This may be a neutral court game, but expect UMass to have the bigger fan base. This game is being played in Springfield, Massachusetts, just a 25 minute drive from Amherst.

The Minutemen should score at-will against this soft Cougars defense. BYU is allowing 83.2 points per game on the road. They have to face a Massachusetts team that has put up an average of 81.6 points per game. The Minutemen defense is solid, allowing just 68.2 points per game when playing away from their home court.

The Minutemen are not a team that gets intimidated by a winning team. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against a team winning 60% or more of their games. They are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games. BYU is playing in a bad letdown spot after picking up a 30-point win over North Texas. The Cougars are 7-20 ATS following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.

3* No Doubt Rout on South Carolina +

This is simply too many points for the Cowboys to cover against a respectable basketball program like South Carolina. The Gamecocks may be coming into this game with a 2-2 record, but they have played a tough schedule facing the likes for Baylor and Clemson. Both of those losses came by a much smaller margin than the 17 points they are getting spotted against Oklahoma State today.

The Cowboys are coming off a loss to Memphis, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last three consecutive games. There has been a lot of hype surrounding Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart, but that has only created value on the Gamecocks. South Carolina has three players averaging double-digits in scoring, and they are averaging an impressive 39 rebounds per game. They are not a team that has a lot of turnovers with just 12 per game, so I don't see the Cowboys winning this game in a blowout.

Oklahoma State is 11-26 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss, and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. South Carolina has covered the spread in two of their last three games. They are well rested having played just four games since their season started on November 9th, while the Cowboys have played seven games in that same time frame.

4* Vegas Insider on Rutgers +

This is simply way too many points for Rutgers to be receiving considering the brutal stretch of schedule George Washington has played through recently. The Colonials are coming off games against Miami, Marquette and Creighton which makes this their fourth game in the last six days. Rutgers on the other hand is a very well rested team. Their last game was over a week ago, and I think the extra preparation time gives them a significant advantage over the Colonials.

The Scarlet Knights should have no problem keeping pace with George Washington on the offensive end of the court. They are averaging 76.9 points per game this season while the Colonials have averaged only slightly better at 78.4 points per game. The Colonials have also played a very soft schedule at home. In fact, they have not even had a line posted in their three home games this season.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 5-1 in their last six road games against teams winning more than 60 percent of their games at home. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games overall. The Colonials on the other hand have struggled against non-conference opponents. They are 18-40 ATS in their last 58 non-conference games. There is no reason for the Scarlet Knights to be a double-digit underdog so we will take the points.

4* No Brainer on Toledo -

Detroit comes into this game with a 4-4 record, but the schedule has been very soft to this point in the season. That ends today when they take on the undefeated Toledo Rockets. The Titans have just one starters returning from last season, so they are a very young and inexperienced team. The Rockets on the other hand have four starters returning to a team that finished in second plays in the MAC West standings last year.

The Titans have struggled to score points on the road, averaging just 62.2 points per game. Toledo on the other hand has been hard to stop on the offensive end of the court. They are averaging 92.2 points per game, with a defense that is allowing a mere 62 points per game at home this season. The Rockets should dominate the Titans on the boards, and that should yield them a few extra offensive possessions. With Toledo averaging 52.4 percent from the field, and the Titans averaging a mere 39.7 percent shooting, the margin of victory for Toledo should be a big one this week.

This matchup fits into a system to play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9,5 points like Toledo when they are an excellent shooting team that is making over 52% from the field, and they are a good rebounding team that is outrebounding opponents by four or more per game. This system is 67-27 (71%) against the spread. I don't think the Titans will be able to stop the many scoring threats on this Rockets team, and Toledo should take this game by a double-digit margin.

3* Bailout Blowout on Colorado -

Colorado is clearly the better team, and they have faced a much stronger schedule this season than their in-state rival. Colorado averages 78.5 points per game and they are shooting 46.6 percent from the field. They have dominated their opponents on the boards, pulling in 40 rebounds per game while allowing opponents just 29 rebounds per game. They have also done a great job of avoiding turnovers.

With the new rules changes in college basketball the Buffaloes have a big advantage. They have adjusted quickly, and they have managed to stay out of foul trouble. They are also a team that uses their big men to score a lot of points in the paint, and that has made them a good foul drawing team. Colorado is shooting 74 percent from the free throw line this season. I expect the Rams to give up a lot of free points from the line due to the fact that they are a much smaller team that will have mismatch problems with the big men in the lane.

The Rams do not get a much of a boost from home court advantage, posting a 2-7 ATS record in their last nine home games. They have also struggled against non-conference opponents with a 1-5 ATS record. Colorado on the other hand is 5-2 ATS against the Mountain West. The Buffaloes are also 7-0 ATS in road games when coming off a performance in which they allowed 60 points or less. Colorado has dominated the head-to-head series with the Rams, and I expect them to continue that success this year.

3* No Doubt Rout on Western Kentucky -

There is a much larger mismatch between these teams than this 1.5 point line indicates. The WKU Hilltoppers have been a strong rebounding team, pulling in an average of 42 boards per game on the road while allowing opponents just 36 rebounds in those games. They are a respectable 4-2 overall this season, while Bowling Green has struggled to reach a 2-4 record.

The Hilltoppers will also have a defensive advantage in this game. They have held opponents to just 60.9 points per game. They are a smart team that stays out of foul trouble, but they are also aggressive enough on the defensive end of the court to hold their opponents to under 30 percent from beyond the three point line, and 41 percent from the field.

This matchup fits into a system to play on a road team like Western Kentucky when they have shot below 40 percent, but are facing a team allowing 42.5 to 45 percent, and they are an average ball handling team with 14.5 to 17.5 turnovers when they are facing a poor pressure defense that forces less than 14.5 turnovers per game. This system is 105-58 (64%) against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on Marquette PICK

The Golden Eagles may have more losses on the year than their opponent, but they are very respectable losses. Marquette was just two points away from pilling off a road upset against Arizona State, and they should have no problem picking up a win over the Aztecs in this game. San Diego State is nowhere near as good on a neutral court as they are at home. They are allowing almost 10 points per game more in road games than they have in their overall average on the season.

The Golden Eagles are the better scoring team in this matchup. Marquette averages 79.7 points per game on the road this year. They should dominate the boards in this game, which will give them more shot attempts than the Aztecs. Their 46.8% shooting percentage from the field tells me they will have no problem taking advantage of those extra attempts. The Golden Eagles are also a very good ball control team. They average just nine turnovers per game on the road this season.

Marquette is a team that always steps up their level of play against good teams. They are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against teams that are outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points per game. This matchup also fits into a system to play against a neutral court opponent like San Diego State when they average 74-78 points per game and they are facing an excellent defensive team like Marquette that allows 63 points per game or less, after leading their last three games by five or more points at halftime. This system is 64-29 (69%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Colorado -

This game is going to be more lopsided than the oddsmakers expect. Colorado is a very good team this year, with their only loss coming in the season opener against a ranked Baylor team. They will face an Air Force team that is just 3-3 to open the season, and the Falcons have earned that record facing a very soft schedule.

Air Force is not a strong team defensively. They are allowing more points than their opponents have averaged this season at 70.5 points per game, and they are in big trouble today against a Colorado team that is scoring 78.1 points per game. The Buffaloes defense has been solid, holding opponents to 66.4 points per game when those opponents offensive average has been over 72 points per game.

The Falcons are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. Air Forced was crushed by Richmond in their last outing. They have had two days of rest since their last game, while Colorado is coming off five days of rest. With conditioning being a major issue early in the reason, rest profiles are a very valuable factor. You should also play on road favorites like Colorado when they are coming off three or more consecutive wins and playing in November. This system is 39-14 (74%) against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Arizona -

Arizona outmatches Duke in size, and their physical style of play should wear the Blue Devils down quickly. The Wildcats are dominating opponents on the boards, pulling in 43 rebounds per game while opponents are averaging just 28 against them. Duke is not a strong rebounding team, averaging 33 boards per game and allowing opponents to pull in 33 rebounds as well. Those numbers have come against a soft schedule for the Blue Devils, so I expect a team like Arizona to really put it on them today.

The Wildcats are shooting over 51% from the field which puts them right in line with Duke from a scoring standpoint. They have an outstanding defense and should control the pace of this game. They have held opponents to just 58.3 points, while Duke is allowing 74 points per game. Duke's opponents are averaging almost 45% shooting from the field, while Arizona has held its opponents to just 34% shooting. With advantages on both ends of the court there is no reason the Wildcats can't win this game by a much larger margin than the oddsmakers expect.

Arizona's outstanding defense has suited them well against teams that rely heavily on three point shots to win games. They are 16-5 ATS in road games against teams shooting over 41% from beyond the three point line. The Wildcats have also posted a 14-5 ATS record in non-conference games over the last two seasons. The Blue Devils are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games, and they are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win. The oddsmakers have given the Blue Devils a little too much credit against a top tier team like Arizona.

3* Main Event on Butler -

This game is going to be a lot more lopsided than the oddsmakers expect. Butler is a very good team this year. They are 4-0 and averaging 75.7 points per game, but the strength of this team is actually their defense. They have held opponents to a mere 65 points per game. The Bulldogs defensive success comes from their outstanding ability to force turnovers and get blocks in the paint. They are also a solid rebounding team that does not allow their opponent many opportunities for second chance points.

Washington State has been a big disappointment through the first four games this season. They have a 2-2 record with some pretty embarrassing losses in their last two games. They suffered a 16 point loss at the hands of Gonzaga, and lost to TCU by two-points when they are a 14 point favorite. The Cougars have been a very poor shooting team, averaging just 40.3 percent from the field.

The Bulldogs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. They have also been a dominating team when playing on a neutral court posting a 37-15 ATS record. The Cougars on the other hand have struggled on a neutral court. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral court games, and I expect that trend to continue today against the Bulldogs.

3* No Doubt Rout on Syracuse -

The talent gap between these teams is a lot more significant than the three point line indicates. Baylor barely squeaked by Dayton in their last game. The Bears shot 50% from the field in that game and still won by just a single point. I don't think they can continue to shoot as well as they have, especially against a stingy defense like the Orange have.

Syracuse averages 83.5 points per game on the road this season. Their defense has held opponents to just 63.7 points per game. They run a zone defense that is very difficult to score on, and they have perfected it. They Orange are averaging 10 steals per game, which is over double the amount of steals from Baylor. They have also done a better job of avoiding turnovers, committing 10 per game while the Bears are committing an average of 14 turnovers per game.

Syracuse is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. They have a history of dominating the Big 12, posting a 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 games against Big 12 opponents. Baylor on the other hand has struggled against the ACC. They have a 1-4 ATS record in their last five games against Atlantic Coast opponents. I think the Orange's zone defense will be too much for the Bears to handle, and they win this game in a blowout.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Cal +

The Cal Golden Bears are a very good basketball team this year. They are averaging 77.5 points per game and have been dominating the boards pulling in 41 rebounds per game to just 30 from their opponents. Cal is also a very efficient team. They have averaged just 11 turnovers per game this season, again giving them an edge over Dayton.

Defensively Dayton has been soft this year. Their opponents have shot 47.8% against them in road games, and they are not forcing many turnovers. That gives Cal a big matchup advantage since they are holding opponents to a mere 65 points per game this year, and allowing a 38.1% shooting percentage from opponents. The Bears outmatch Dayton from all of the key angles. They are scoring more points, getting more rebounds and committing less turnovers.

The Golden Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team winning 60% of their games or more. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral court games. I think Cal is talented enough to win this game. They have the better defense, a very talented offense and their rebounding advantage should get them a lot of second chance points against the Flyers.

4* No Brainer on Wisconsin -

I don't think St Louis is as good as their 5-0 record this season. Their opponents have been soft, and winning five games doesn't mean much when they have been double-digit favorites in each of those games. Wisconsin on the other hand has played a tough schedule, facing teams like St Johns and Florida. Their stronger schedule will have them more prepared for this game.

The Badgers are averaging 80.2 points per game this season. They have done a great job of avoiding turnovers, and they are shooting lights out from the field. Wisconsin averages 49.4 percent shooting, and they are shooting 45.2 percent from beyond the three-point line. They have too many scoring threats for St Louis to slow them down.

The Badgers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against Atlantic 10 opponents. The talent gap between these conference will show in this matchup today. The Billikens are 9-29 ATS in road games after two consecutive non-conference games. St Louis has a history of playing a soft non-conference schedule, but they received a difficult draw in the opening round of this Cancun Challenge.

3* No Doubt Rout on Monmouth +

The Penn State Nittany Lions have played five games this season, and they are already overrated this season. They have played a weak schedule to open the season, and suffered a 10 point loss to Bucknell in their second game. They have never been more than a three point favorite, so it is surprising to see them listed as a double-digit favorite in this game against Monmouth today.

The Monmouth Hawks are scoring 70.2 points per game. They should have no problem exceeding that number against a Penn State defense that is allowing 72.4 points per game. The Nittany Lions have one win that was by a large enough margin to cover today's spread over Longwood. They shot 57.1% from the field in that game, and that is a feat they will not be able to repeat today.

The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. Penn State is 1-4 ATS in their last five games when coming off a performance in which they scored 90 points or more. You should play on road underdogs of 10 or more points like Monmouth in the first 10 games of the season, after scoring 60 points or less in their last game when they have two starters returning from last year. This system is 74-40 ATS over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Syracuse -

Syracuse is the better team, and they should dominate the Golden Gophers in this Maui Invitational opening round showdown. The Orange are 4-0 coming into this game, and they have dominated opponents by an average of almost 16 points per game. The Syracuse defense has proved difficult to score on. The Orange have allowed opponents an average of just 58.5 points per game.

Minnesota's shooting percentage drops dramatically when they are playing away from home. The Gophers average just 37.3% from the field, and 28% from beyond the three point line. Even their free throw shooting takes a hit, making just 60.7% of their attempts. Syracuse is averaging 12 steals per game, and they should force a lot of turnovers from Minnesota today.

This matchup falls into a system to play on neutral court favorites like Syracuse when they are coming off two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers, and facing an opponent that just had eight or less turnovers in their previous game. This system is 80-41 (66%) against the spread. I think Minnesota will have a lot of problems bringing the ball down court against a top tier team like Syracuse.

3* No Doubt Rout on Maryland -

Don't let the Terrapins 2-2 record fool you, this is a team that is every it as good as last year's team that finished with a 25-13 overall record. Maryland has played a touch schedule this year, opening the season against a ranked UConn team, a game they lost by a single point. They also played a very close game against an underrated Oregon State team.

The Terrapins are led in scoring by Jake Layman. He is averaging 15.8 points per game, and has been a dangerous shooting from beyond the three point line. They also have a big scoring threat in Dez Wells. Through the first four games of the season Wells has show 95% from the free throw line, pulled in 4.8 rebounds per game, is second in the team in assists and is scoring 12.3 points per game. Maryland simple has too much talent for Northern Iowa to compete.

UNI is 3-11 in their last 14 games when coming off a performance in which they had five or less offensive rebounds. They face a Maryland team that is 15-5 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponents by six or more boards per game. The Panthers should once again get dominated on the boards today, and Maryland wins this game in a blowout.

3* Bailout Blowout on Pacific -

The better team in this game is clearly the Pacific Tigers. They are averaging 76.7 points per game, and their defense has held opponents to a mere 65.5 points per game when playing at home. The strength of the team is definitely the defense. Their opponents have averaged 75.8 points per game, so the Tigers are allowing a full 10 points less than their opponents typical scoring average.

Fresno State has been a mediocre scoring team, and a horrible team defensively. The Bulldogs are allowing 86 points per game on the road this year, and with the exception of their game against Pittsburgh, the schedule has been extremely soft. Pacific is a perfect 2-0 at home, and 3-0 overall this season. They have yet to lose a game against the spread, and that won't change today.

Pacific plays well against decent opponents. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning straight-up record. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. When the Tigers are coming off a win and playing at home they have a 14-3 ATS record. Last year the Tigers had an 8-3 record against common opponents, and with the team shooting over 42% from beyond the three point line, they should win this game in a blowout.

3* Main Event on Northern Iowa -

This is a neutral court game, and one that Northern Iowa should have no problem winning. Don't let their 1-2 record fool you, this Panthers team is very talented. Their two losses have been on the road, and much closer than the final score indicates. The Panthers are a good rebounding team, and they are very dangerous from beyond the three point line. The defense is solid, allowing just 67.7 points per game.

Loyola-Marymount has played a very soft schedule this year. Their 4-0 record is very misleading. They have two games decided by three points or less, showing their struggles against teams that are not very good. Their biggest problem has been a defense that is allowing 79 points per game. they are having trouble adjusting to the new foul rules, averaging 26 personal fouls per game when playing away from home.

Loyola-Marymount is 16-30 ATS in road games when coming off a home win. They are also 64-92 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. The Panthers on the other hand have posted a 43-26 ATS record when playing against a team winning 80% or more of their games. UNI should have no problem picking up a big win in this game against a Loyola-Marymount team that has been horrible defensively this year.

3* No Doubt Rout on UMass -

Nebraska is in for a long day today when they travel to the east coast to take on the Massachusetts Minutemen. This is a neutral court game being played in Charleston South Carolina, so the Cornhuskers will not have the benefit of home court advantage like they did in their first three games of the season. The Huskers have played an extremely soft schedule to open the season, and that will have them unprepared for a UMass team that is scoring 97.7 points per game this season.

The Minutemen have played three very good teams. They beat Boston College in a neutral court game to open the season, and they also picked up wins against LSU and Youngstown State. Their offense has been hard to stop, shooting 50.5% from the field this year, and a very impressive 42.1% from beyond the three point line. The Cornhuskers have yet to play a game on the road this year, and that is another factor that will favor UMass today. I expect a sloppy and turnover prone game from the Cornhuskers.

Nebraska is 3-13 ATS against teams shooting over 45% from the field, with a defense that is allowing less than 42% shooting. This matchup also falls into a system to play on a neutral court team like UMass when they are scoring over 76 points per game on the season, and coming off two straight performances of 80 points or more when they are playing a team scoring between 74 to 76 points. This system is 29-5 against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cal Poly +

The Cal Poly Mustangs have a great opportunity to pick up their first win of the season tonight. Fresno State may have a 2-1 record, but they have yet to beat a quality team. Cal Poly played a close game on the road against Arizona, and lost by just two points to Nevada. They have quickly become an underrated team that is more than capable of beating the Bulldogs.

Fresno State is allowing an average of 78.7 points per game this season. Their offense is only scoring 77.3 points per game, which is a sign that Fresno State is not as good as their 2-1 record to start the season. Cal Poly is a solid team defensively. They have held opponents to just 66.5 points per game. I expect to see the Mustangs dominate the boards in this matchup since Fresno State has been out-rebound by eight boards per game.

The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. The face a Bulldogs team that is 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against a team with a losing record on the road. In head-to-head matchups between these teams the underdog has a 4-0 ATS record and the road team has a 4-0 ATS record in the last four meetings. Take the points since Cal Poly is on the road, but I expect the Mustangs to win this game in a close one.

3* No Doubt Rout on DePaul -

The DePaul Blue Demons are 201 this season. Their only loss was a very respectable one, coming by just seven points against Southern Miss. The Blue Demons offense has been on fire, shooting 47.9% from the field and averaging 81.7 points per game. They are a very experienced team with four of their five starters returning from last season.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee has played a soft schedule this year. They have just two starters returning and figure to be outmatched in several key categories of this game. The Blue Demons are the better shooting team, and are also a much better rebounding team, and they have forced more steals than the Panthers. The Panthers have struggled against Big East opponents, posting a 2-6 ATS record in their last eight games.

The Blue Demons are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games. Against good rebounding teams like DePaul, Wisconsin Milwaukee has a 2-10 ATS record. The Blue Demons average over four rebounds per game more than their opponent. The Panthers are also 13-26 ATS in their last 39 home games against non-conference opponents. DePaul should dominate the boards and win big today.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Southern Methodist +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup between SMU and Arkansas. The Mustangs are scoring 79 points per game this season, and their outstanding defense has held opponents to just 59.5 points per game. They have big wins over both TCU and Rhode Island this season.

Arkansas has played a very soft schedule through the first two games of the season, and I think that prevents them from being prepared to face SMU in this matchup. The Razorbacks statistics are a bit misleading because of the huge gap in talent between these teams opponents. Defensively the Mustangs have a big edge, and I think they hold Arkansas well below their 51.3% shooting rate from the field.

Arkansas is a team that has been known for quickly getting too much respect from the oddsmakers. They are 16-35 ATS when coming off two straight wins by 10 points or more. They are also 6-16 ATS over the last three seasons when coming off a game they covered the spread. The Mustangs have a 26-12 ATS record in road games when coming off a performance in which they scored 80 points or more, and I expect that trend to continue in this matchup.

3* Oddsmakers Error on CS-Northridge +

Fresno State is a bad team, and the oddsmakers are giving them too much credit considering they have yet to pick up a quality win this season. It took overtime for the Bulldogs to squeak by UC-Irvine, and they were absolutely crushed by Pittsburgh in their last game. Today they face a Cal State Northridge team that has a 12 point season opening win under their belts, and a respectable loss to the USC Trojans.

Stephen Maxwell has been the scoring leader for the Matadors through the first two games of the season. He is averaging 20 points per game, 12 rebounds and is shooting 44% from the field. Cal State has four players averaging double-digit scoring. Their top three scorers from last season are all back which makes them a veteran team with a lot of talent.

Fresno State is 7-19 ATS at home when coming off a performance with five or less offensive rebounds. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games against a team with a losing record on the road. Cal State has more talent, more experience, and they are the all-around better team. Take the points, but don

3* Oddsmakers Error on Indiana State +

The Belmont Bruins had a great season last year, but this year they are without Ian Clark, Kerron Johnson and Trevor Noack. Those three led the Bruins in scoring last season, and also accounted for 12 rebounds, 7.8 assists and four of the Bruins 10 steals. That lost production will be impossible to make up with the roster they feature this season.

Indiana State is led by three prolific scorers this year. Dawon Cummings had 21 points in the Sycamores first game of the season, and he will be a tough player for the Bruins to defend against. The Sycamores also received 17 points from Jake Odum and 14 points from Manny Arop. All three of these players saw substantial minutes last season, so their experience gives them a key matchup advantage in this game.

The Indiana State Sycamores are 20-8 ATS when coming off a straight up win as a favorite in which they failed to cover the spread. Their offense looked unstoppable in the season opener against Ball State, scoring an impressive 82 points. Belmont is coming off an eight point loss to Richmond, and the Bruins defense has allowed opponents to shoot 47% against them. Their defense is soft, so Indiana State should have no problem putting another big number on the scoreboard.

3* Main Event on Towson -

This Towson team is being completely undervalued by the oddsmakers. They are 2-0 to start the season, and both of those wins have come by 20 points or more. The Tigers have four players averaging double-digit scoring, and that many offensive threats makes them a very difficult team to defend.

Temple squeaked by an ivy league school in their season opener, winning against Penn by just five points. They lost by four points in their last game to a Kent State team that lost its top two scorers from last season. The Owls lack depth with just eight players seeing minutes this season. They are also without their top three scorers from last season, so the outlook on Temple is grim this year.

This matchup falls into a system to play on a favorite like Towson in the first five games of the season after a combined score of 155 points or more, when they have four starters returning from last season. This system is 71-38 against the spread. It is a great way to identify teams that are undervalued by the oddsmakers in the early portion of the season.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Colorado -

Wyoming is without their top three scores from last season so I expect them to struggle against Colorado in this game. They may have beaten Tennessee-Martin in their season opener, but they are clearly outmatched tonight. The Buffaloes also played Tennessee Martin, and dominated them in a 26-point blowout.

Wyoming forced just seven turnovers in their game against the Skyhawks, while Colorado forced 13 in their game against them. The Buffaloes also had 45 rebounds and shot 60.4% from the field. Colorado should dominate the boards with Josh Scott and Wesley Gordon. This is both players second season with the Buffaloes, so experience also favors Colorado.

Colorado is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Mountain West opponents. This matchup falls into a system to play on favorites of 10 points or more in the first 1- games of the season when they are coming off a blowout win by 20 points or more, and have four starters returning from last season. This system is 78-40 against the spread.

3* Main Event on Drexel -

The Drexel Dragons are a very talented team. They were within five points of upsetting No. 22 UCLA in their season opener on Saturday. Illinois State on the other hand was dominated by VCU in a 38 point blowout. The Redbirds scored just 58 points in that game and had 22 turnovers. Drexel had just 11 turnovers in their game against UCLA, and shot just shy of 40% from the field which is impressive against the talented Bruins defense.

Illinois State is not a good shooting team. They shot just 31.7% in the season opener against VCU, and it is going to be a very long season for Redbird's fans without Tyler Brown and Jackie Carmichael on the roster. Those two players combined for 35.5 points per game and 13.7 rebounds. Carmichael was their best defensive player, and without him on the court Illinois State allowed Virginia Commonwealth to shoot 55.4% from the field.

The Redbirds are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall, and I think that trend will continue as the team adjusts to a starting lineup that lacks leadership and talent. The Dragons on the other hand have posted a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games following a straight up loss. The way teams respond to a loss speaks volumes about its leadership and character, two things that are definitely not lacking for Drexel. The Dragons are also not lacking in the talent department either with all three of their top scorers back from last season.

4* Heavy Hitter on Western Michigan -

In just two games we have already learned a lot about these two teams. First of all, Tennessee State is awful. They were crushed by 30 points in their season opener against Hawaii, followed by a 15 point loss at the hands of New Mexico State. When Western Michigan played New Mexico State in this tournament they picked up a six-point win.

The Broncos will have Shayne Whittington back tonight after serving a suspension for the first two games of the season. Both of these teams have played the same schedule. The Broncos also lost to Hawaii, but there loss was by just 10-points. With Whittington back in the lineup the Broncos will not have to rely as heavily on their outside shooting. They have several key matchup advantages and should dominate this game from start to finish.

The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral court games. They face a Tigers team that is 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference matchups. I don't think the Tigers offense will be able to do a lot of scoring in this game. They rely on a lot of points in the paint thanks to shooting just 18.2% from beyond the three-point line. Whittington is a 6' 11" center that is not only a great scorer, but also a great defender.

3* Main Event on New Mexico State -

Yesterday the Tennessee State Tigers were blown out by a very bad Hawaii team. They were crushed by 30 points to open the season, and now have to face a talented New Mexico State team that will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after getting beat by Western Michigan by six points. The Aggies definitely have the motivation factor in their corner for this game.

New Mexico State returns two of its top four scores from last season, which includes leading scorer Daniel Mullings at guard and 7' 5" center Sim Bhullar. Bhullar is a matchup nightmare for Tennessee State and should have a very big game. The Tigers are without three of their top four scorers from last season, which includes both of their top rebounders. This is a very young, inexperienced team that will struggle down the stretch.

The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. With the Aggies coming into this game as the more experienced team, the more motivated team, and simply the better team I don't think the Tigers have much of a chance at keeping this game close. Lay the points on New Mexico State because this game has blowout written all over it.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah State -

Last year USC was a major disappointment. They finished with a 14-18 overall record. Expectations will be low again this year as the Trojans try to improve while replacing their best player, Eric Wise who is not in the lineup this season. I expect the Trojans to get dominated on the boards without DeWayne Dedmon in the lineup. Dedmon averaged seven rebounds per game for the Trojans last season, but he has since moved to the NBA's D-League.

The Utah State Aggies will return three of their top four scorers from last season. The Aggies posted a 21 win season a year ago and they should easily continue to build on that success this year. Jarred Shaw will be a matchup nightmare for the Trojans without Dedmon. Last season Shaw averaged 14.2 points per game, 8.4 rebounds per game and was a defensive stud getting an average of one block per game.

The Trojans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. They face an Aggies team that is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. With the Aggies returning virtually every key player from last season, and the Trojans without their two two players, Utah State should have no problem winning this game in blowout fashion.

3* Main Event on Michigan -

Louisville does not have a great history against Big Ten teams. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against Big Ten opponents. Michigan on the other hand is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against Big East teams. The Wolverines have been undervalued throughout the NCAA Tournament which has led to a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games. Michigan is outscoring Louisville offensively this season averaging 75.2 points per game which is impressive coming from a Big Ten conference loaded with defensive talent.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS against teams shooting 48% or better this season and Michigan has averaged 48.3% in all games. Michigan has played extremely well in neutral court games this season as they have a 9-1 ATS record. The Wolverines defense has held opponents to 62.8 points per game. They also do a great job of avoiding turnovers which makes them a matchup nightmare for this Louisville team that thrives on forcing turnovers. Michigan averages just 9 per game and with Burke running the offense they should have no problem staying around that average against the Cardinals tonight.

3* Bailout Blowout on Syracuse +

The Orange have looked extremely impressive throughout the NCAA Tournament. Michigan on the other hand has had to overcome a couple very close games before beating Florida in their last matchup. The Big East is arguably the best defensive conference in college basketball this season and Syracuse is one of the best Big East teams. In their last five games, the Orange have held opponents to 52.2 points per game, a full 12 points lower than Michigan

5* Final Four Game of the Year on Louisville -

Louisville is one of the only teams left in the NCAA Tournament that has dominated every opponent they have faced. The Cardinals are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season. They are a well coached team which explains why they have an 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games.

The Louisville defense is one of the best in college basketball holding opponents to 58.1 points per game while their offense scores 74.3 per game. That is a 16.2 point margin playing in the Big East which is arguably the first or second strongest conference in college basketball this year. The Cardinals defense gets a lot of points off of turnovers as they force an average of 19 per game.

Wichita State has had a nice run in the NCAA Tournament but they were playing in the West region which was hands down the least talented. The Shockers offense scores 69.8 points per game which ranks them 112th among division one teams. Their statistics were built on a season played against weak competition in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Cinderella Story for the Shockers was great, but reality will settle in when they face the overall top seed in the Tournament.

3* Main Event on Iowa -

Iowa is 14-1 (93%) ATS when playing against a team winning 60% to 80% of their games this season. Iowa has been undervalued most of the season which has led to an overall 24-9 ATS record. They are 11-6 ATS when playing away from home this season and the Hawkeyes defense has held opponents to 62.5 points per game. Baylor has not faced a tough Big Ten team like Iowa and that makes the Hawkeyes the smart play in this game.

Iowa has faced much tougher opponents than Baylor all season in the Big Ten. They had wins over many of the Big Ten teams that made the NCAA tournament. They are a young team but have improved each week and they are playing some great basketball right now. Baylor

3* Main Event on BYU +

BYU is coming off a 17 point win on the road against Southern Miss. This matchup falls into a system to play on an underdog like BYU when they are scoring 74-78 points per game playing a team that has held opponents to 63-67 points per game after 15 or more games in the season and when that underdog is coming off a win by 15 points or more. This system is 38-19 (67%) over the last 5 seasons.

There are few teams in college basketball that can compete with BYU offensively. The Cougars are averaging 77.3 points per game which ranks them 10th among all division one teams. They are also a great rebounding team averaging 38.8 boards per game while allowing their opponents only 31.6 per game.

Considering how well this BYU team rebounds the ball, and that they are one of the best shooting teams in college, it seems the oddsmakers may have favored the wrong team. Baylor is horrible defensively and if they are getting outrebounded and unable to force turnovers we have a potential Cougars blowout in the making. The Baylor offense is one of the few teams that can come close to keeping pace with the Cougars so we will still take the points.

3* No Doubt Rout on Duke +

Louisville has been hot and that may have this line slightly inflated considering how evenly matched these teams are. You should always play on a team like Duke after going under the total by 48 points or more in their last 7 games when they are playing in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1 conferences. This system is 41-15 (73%) over the last five seasons.

Duke is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral court games. Their offense averages 77.6 points per game which outpaces Louisville by 3.6 per game. The defensive differences between these teams are a bit misleading. The ACC is stacked with offensive talent while the Big East was not.

This game falls into another system to play against a favorite like Louisville after 9 or more consecutive wins when they are a top level team winning 80% or more of their games on the season. This system is 349-250 (58%) ATS over the last five seasons. The recent success for Louisville has driven this line up higher than it should be for two very evenly matched teams.

4* Elite 8 Game of the Year on Michigan +

The Michigan Wolverines proved in their win over Kansas that they are a team that never gives up. They face a Florida team that has not earned their way into the Elite 8 this season. They had the softest schedule coming into the Elite 8 and they had a very soft schedule in SEC play all season.

Michigan is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. They are also 5-1 in their last 6 non-conference games too. Florida on the other hand is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record and they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.

The Michigan offense is in a completely different class over Florida. They average 75.4 points per game playing in the Big Ten Conference which is arguably the best defensive conference in college basketball. The Gators average 71.7 per game against soft SEC opponents.

3* Main Event on Wichita State +

Ohio State has been very lucky to advance this far in the NCAA Tournament and they have been involved in some very close games. Last second three point attempts have saved the Buckeyes but their luck may be running out when they face this undervalued Wichita State team. You should always play against neutral court teams like Ohio State after two straight games making 50% or more of their 3 point shot attempts in a game involving two teams shooting 69-73% from the free throw line. This system is 25-4 (86%) ATS.

There has been a lot of talk about how strong the Big Ten conference is defensively. Well Wichita State is not far behind. The Shockers have held opponents to 60.7 points per game on 39.6% shooting from the field. They are +8 in the rebounding margin and play just as well on the road as they do at home with a 15-6 road record. Offensively the Shockers average 69.8 points per game which is right in line with Ohio State.

Wichita State has not allowed above 36% shooting during the NCAA Tournament while Ohio State has played back to back games allowing 44.2%. The Buckeyes cannot continue to play so poor defensively because there is no way they can continue shooting at the pace they have in their last two games. This game could be an upset in the making, but definitely take the points.

3* No Doubt Rout on Duke -

Duke is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral court games. The Big Ten may be the conference with the most ranked teams, but the ACC could certainly make an argument for the most potent offensive teams. Duke is averaging 77.8 points per game this season shooting 47.7% from the field and over 40% from beyond the three point line. They do an excellent job of avoiding turnovers averaging just 11 per game compared to 14 by Michigan State.

Keith Appling is the best player on Michigan State

3* Oddsmakers Error on Michigan +

The Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against Big 12 teams and they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral court. Michigan also has a history of success in the NCAA Tournament with a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games. Kansas has struggled against Big Ten opponents as they have a 4-12 ATS record in their last 16 against the conference.

When teams hit big win streaks the oddsmakers are forced to drive the lines up on that team to ensure even action. This seems to be the care in today

3* Main Event on Indiana -

Based on what we have seen in the NCAA Tournament so far, it is obvious the Big Ten is the power conference. The Indiana Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Big East opponents and they are 16-6 in their last 22 non-conference games. Syracuse on the other hand is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Big Ten opponents.

Indiana is a great rebounding team. They average 38 boards per game while allowing their opponents to pull in only 31 per game. Syracuse is 0-8 ATS over the last two seasons against dominant rebounding teams that are outrebounding their opponents by 7 or more boards per game. The Hoosiers play well when they are getting a lot of games in. They are 7-1 ATS when playing their 3rd game in a week this season.

Indiana

3* No Doubt Rout on Santa Clara +

Santa Clara is the better team in this matchup and they are solid when playing on the road. The Broncos average 74.1 points per game this season compared to 61.8 for Wright State. The Broncos are winning the rebounding, turnover and shooting percentage margins too.

Santa Clara is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and they are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Wright State Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning road record. Wright State

5* NIT Game of the Year on Providence +

Baylor

3* Oddsmakers Error on BYU +

BYU is coming off a confidence boosting pounding of Mercer earlier this week. You should always play on an underdog like BYU when they are coming off a win by 15 points or more and they are averaging 74-78 points per game and playing against a team with a defense that allows 63-67 points per game. This system is 74-44 (63%) over the last five seasons.

BYU is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record and they are 4-0 when playing against Conference USA teams. They play well against good teams too. The Cougars are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. Southern Miss on the other hand is 2-8-1 in their last 11 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games.

Both of these teams are solid on the offensive and defensive end of the court. The Cougars have an advantage when it comes to turnovers. They are averaging only 12 per game compared to 15 by the Golden Eagles. The Cougars are also a better rebounding team averaging 39 per game compared to only 36 for Southern Miss. This is too many points for the Cougars to be receiving against a team they matchup so well against.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Bradley +

This is a rematch from a February 10th game in which Northern Iowa won by three points. You should always play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Bradley when they are revenging a home loss against an opponent and they are winning 51-60% of their games on the season playing another team with a winning record. This system is 116-52 (65%) over the last five seasons.

Bradley has played well against winning teams. They are 401 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning straight up record. They are also 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games following three or more consecutive home games so they should have no problem playing at Northern Iowa today. The Panthers have been struggling recently. They are 3-3 in their last six games and 1-5 ATS in that span playing some pretty bad teams. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a losing road record.

These teams are pretty even from a statistical standpoint. Both of them average 65-68 points per game, they both do a good job of controlling turnovers and neither team is great at rebounding. Considering the last game was decided by a mere three points the line today seems excessive making Bradley the value play.

3* Main Event on Oral Roberts -

Oral Roberts is shooting 46.2% from the field this season, but they are shooting 48% when playing on their home court. You should always play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Oral Roberts when they are shooting between 45-47.5% and playing against a defense allowing 40% or less in a game involving two teams committing 14.5 or less turnovers per game after 15 or more games. This system is 72-33 (69%) over the last 5 seasons.

The Oral Roberts defense is much better than UC Irvine's. They are holding opponents to 63.5 points per game at home while UC Irvine is allowing 68.4 points per game on the road. The Golden Eagles also have an offensive advantage. They are scoring 73.9 points per game at home while UC Irvine is averaging only 66.4 points per game on the road. The Golden Eagles are shooting 74% from the free throw line compared to only 66.7% from UC Irvine. Overall Oral Roberts is just a much better team and they should have no problem covering such a small number tonight.

3* No Doubt Rout on Duke -

This is a Duke team that almost always plays well in tournament matchups. The Blue Devils are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 neutral court games. Creighton on the other hand has a history of struggling in the NCAA Tournament with a 1-5 ATS record in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.

The Blue Devils lost to Maryland in the ACC Tournament and they had an underwhelming performance against Albany in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. It appears the oddsmakers have may have over adjusted for today's matchup against Creighton. Duke is 9-2 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.

Creighton's soft schedule in the Missouri Valley Conference will not have them prepared for this game against Duke. The Bluejay's defense looks good statistically because of the poor competition they have faced. Duke has put up an average of 78.1 points per game and their scoring potential is something Creighton has not seen this season.

3* No Doubt Rout on Wichita State +

Gonzaga has been on quite a tear recently, but they have played a soft schedule throughout the season. They will have their hands full when they face a physical Wichita State team. You should always play against favorites like Gonzaga after 9 or more consecutive wins when that team has won 80% or more of their games on the season. This system is 346-249 (58%) over the last five seasons.

The proof is in the numbers when it comes to Gonzaga being an overrated team. They are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. They almost lost to Southern, a team they were favored to beat by 22 points. Gonzaga is not a very physical team which is why they stay out of foul trouble. There are times when that style of play is fine, but against Wichita State it will not work. Head Coach Gregg Marshall is 11-3 against teams who are called for 3+ less fouls per game than their opponents as the coach of Wichita State. The physical play of the Shockers could end up giving the Bulldogs a bit of a shock today.

5* No Brainer of the Year on Michigan -

The Michigan Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral court games. They are facing a VCU team that has been a bit inconsistent against the spread. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win and they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record.

The high pressure style of play the VCU Rams use will not work against a top tier team like Michigan. The Wolverines average a mere 9 turnovers per game and if VCU can

3* Oddsmakers Error on Minnesota -

Minnesota played in the toughest conference in college basketball this season and that should have them prepared for a big game against UCLA. You should play on a team like Minnesota after going under the total by 48 or more points in their last seven games and they are playing in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1 conferences. This angle is 37-13 (74%) over the last 5 seasons.

This is a Minnesota team that started the season with a 13-1 non-conference record. In conference play they picked up wins over Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana, all teams that are substantially better than UCLA. Strength of schedule is heavily in favor of the Golden Gophers.

UCLA

3* No Doubt Rout on Iowa State +

Notre Dame has a history of under performing in the NCAA Tournament. The Fighting Irish are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. They are in for some trouble today when they face one of the most underrated teams coming out of the Big 12.

Iowa State is coming off a loss to Kansas in the big 12 conference tournament. The Cyclones are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss. Iowa State averages 79.6 points per game and they are one of the most dangerous teams in college basketball is they get hot from beyond the three point line.

Notre Dame does not run a pressure defense which suits Iowa State

3* No Doubt Rout Syracuse -

You should always play against a team like Montana when they have covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, and they have won 80% or more of their games playing against an opponent that has won 60% to 80% of their games on the season. This system is 124-76 (62%) over the last 5 seasons. Syracuse will be, without a doubt, the toughest team Montana has faced this season. Montana

5* NCAA Tournament GOY on Colorado State +

Missouri has struggled in the second half of the season. They have lost two of their last three games coming into this matchup against Colorado State. The Tigers are 1-7 when playing against a team winning 60% to 80% of their games after the 15 game point in the season.

Colorado State returned four starters from last season compared to only one from Missouri. That kind of experience will be huge in the biggest game these teams have played this season. The Rams also have an advantage on defense, holding opponents to 62.9 points per game.

Colorado State

3* Oddsmakers Error on Michigan -

You should always play on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick like Michigan after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers against an opponent coming off a game committing 8 or less turnovers. This angle is 73-36 (67%) since 1997. Michigan certainly has the better defense between these teams as they have held opponents to 62.9 points per game. The scrappy play by the Wolverines will force South Dakota State to make bad decisions.

When it comes to coaching, Michigan has a huge advantage in this game. John Beilein is 20-7 ATS in post-season tournament game in all games he has coached since 1997. This is a coach that knows how to prepare for a big game and he will certainly have his Wolverines ready for South Dakota State.

The Big 10 is arguably the toughest conference in college basketball. The strength of schedule played by Michigan will have the Wolverines ready to dominate their weaker opponent. In the NCAA Tournament good teams never let off the gas so this game will turn into a blowout.

3* No Doubt Rout on Marquette -

Davidson has played so well lately that the oddsmakers were forced to put out a tight line on this game. The problem is the fact that Davidson has played such a soft schedule it has skewed their statistics. You should play against a team like Davidson after four games shooting 47% or better in a game involving two teams taking less than 55 attempts per game after 15 or more games in the season. This system is 66-37 (64%) over the last 5 seasons.

The style of play from Davidson is a perfect matchup for Marquette to get a big win. Marquette is 21-9 ATS against defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less after 15 or more games over the last two seasons. Marquette

3* Main Event on Long Beach State +

The confidence for these Baylor players has to be at a season low. The Bears have lost 9 of their last 13 games. Long Beach State has had a slightly better finish to their regular season winning 8 of their last 13 games. They are coming off a tough loss to UC-Irvine. You should always play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Long Beach State when they are off an upset loss as a favorite, playing only their 3rd game in a week. This system is 134-83 (62%) since 1997.

Baylor has not been very consistent in recent years. They are 3-12 ATS after covering two of their last three games over the last two seasons. Long Beach State is playing well even though they lost in their last game. They have averaged just under 50% shooting from the field in their last two games and they have held their opponents to under 30 rebounds while collecting an average of 38.5 of their own. Baylor is coming off a 36.7% shooting performance against Oklahoma State and they have allowed over 45% shooting in two of their last three games. This double digit line is too many points for such an inconsistent Baylor team to cover against Long Beach State.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Oral Roberts +

The scoring potential of this Oral Roberts team is much greater than it is for Texas Arlington. The Golden Eagles are averaging 70.3 points per game. They are led in scoring by Warren Niles who has been unstoppable averaging 19.1 points per game.

Texas Arlington ranks 263rd among division one teams in scoring with 63.9 points per game. They are one of the few teams in the country that has more trouble scoring at home than they do on the road averaging only 61.9 points per game. The Mavericks are also one of the worst shooting teams in the country at 41.2% from the field and 65.3% from the free throw line.

3* No Doubt Rout on Fairfield +

Fairfield has more experience playing in the post season returning three starters from last season compared to only one from Kent State. You should always play on a road team like Fairfield after scoring 60 points or less in their last game with 2 more starters returning from last year than their opponent. This system is 267-200 (57.2%) over the last five seasons.

The better defensive team in this game is definitely Fairfield. They have held opponents to 58.8 points per game compared to 68.9 points allowed by Kent State on their home court. In their last five games Fairfield has held opponents to 51.2 points per game.

Many times these post season games are decided by coaching. This is an area where Fairfield has another advantage. Sydney Johnson is 27-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games in all games he has coached since 1997. Rob Senderoff is 1-11 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread as the coach of Kent State.

4* Heavy Hitter on Ohio +

This is a lot of points for Ohio to be receiving considering they have the better overall record and a similar strength of schedule. You should always play on road teams as an underdog like Ohio when they are off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite and they are a good team winning 60% to 80% of their games on the season playing another team with a winning record. This system is 86-48 (64.2%) ATS.

Ohio has played really well against non-conference teams. They are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games while Denver is 3-7 ATS against their last 10 non-conference opponents. Denver is a poor rebounding team averaging just 25 per game which includes a mere 5 boards on the offensive end. Ohio will also have an advantage with the turnover margin. The Bobcats force an average of 18 turnovers per game while committing only 13 turnovers of their own.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Hartford +

Rider is coming off a one point loss to Fairfield. You should always play against a team averaging 63-67 points per game after a loss by 6 points or less when they are playing against a team that averages 63 or less points per game. This system is 125-80 (61%) over the last five seasons.

Hartford is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a losing road record. In Rider

3* Main Event on Miami -

Miami is 15-6 ATS when playing against teams with a winning record this season and they are 8-2 ATS when that team has won between 60% and 80% of their games. Miami owns a 2-0 record in the series against North Carolina this season and their margin of victory in those two games averages out to 17.5 points. The Hurricanes know how to beat the Tar Heels and they have already proven they are the best team in the ACC.

It may come as a surprise to many, but Roy Williams is 4-13 ATS in conference tournament games as the coach of North Carolina. Now the Tar Heels will face one of the toughest defenses in the ACC. The Hurricanes are holding opponents to 59.8 points per game on 39.4% shooting. They do an exceptional job of avoiding turnovers, averaging 11 per game, as well as making their opponent earn their points in the paint by averaging 5 blocks per game.

The Tar Heels are going to try to force the Hurricanes into a shootout and Jim Larranaga is not going to let that happen. North Carolina gives up 70.8 points per game when they are playing away from home. Both Florida State and Maryland let North Carolina control the pace of the game and that is a mistake this top ranked Miami team is not going to make.

3* No Doubt Rout on Louisville -

Louisville has returned to their mid-season form. This is a team that was ranked #1 in the nation and they are playing like they want to earn that spot back. The Cardinals have won 12 of their last 13 games since their 3 game skid in January. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games this season and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 overall. Syracuse is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games and they have really been struggling in conference play.

The Louisville defense is playing exceptionally well right now holding their last 6 opponents to under 40% shooting from the field and forcing an average of 18.25 turnovers per game in their last four games. Even though the Orange are 3-0 in the Big East Tournament they are not on a hot streak by any means. They have squeaked off two out of three wins by only 3 points and the defense has forced an average of only 10 turnovers over game in their last four games while allowing an average of 42.1% shooting from the field.

Louisville is the hot team in this game and they have always been the team to beat in the Big East. The Orange are coming off an overtime game against Georgetown and those extra minutes can really wear a team down this late in the season when playing on back to back nights.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Pacific -

Close games always come down to the turnover margin. Pacific has averaged only 9.6 turnovers per game in their last five games. UC-Irvine has been extremely inconsistent in the turnovers column this season. They ended the regular season averaging 14.6 turnovers per game in their last five games. You should always play on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick like Pacific after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers playing against an opponent that committed 8 or less turnovers in their last game. This system is 69-36 (66%) ATS.

The Pacific Tigers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. This is a revenge game for Pacific too. They lost on the road at UC-Irvine back in February shooting 33.3% from the field. This is a Tigers team that shoots 45.3% on average so that poor shooting effort is not likely to take place in today

3* No Doubt Rout on Temple -

Temple finished conference play in dominating fashion. They have now won seven consecutive games and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against Atlantic 10 opponents. Massachusetts is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral court games. They are coming off a game in which they struggled against George Washington giving up 50 rebounds.

Massachusetts is a bad defensive team. They rank 293rd among division one teams in points allowed at 71.7 points per game. In their last five games they have given up 45% shooting and lost the rebounding margin by -5 boards per game. Temple will be one of the best teams they have faced in this recent stretch. In the last game between these teams Temple picked up a 1 point win on the road at Massachusetts. Playing on a neutral court is more than enough to widen that margin of victory above today

4* Heavy Hitter on Arizona -

UCLA played a 5 minute game against Arizona State last night. They were dominated by the Sun Devils for 35 minutes until turning it on to pick up a win late in the second half. Now they face an Arizona Wildcats team that is talented enough to hold on to a big lead like the Sun Devils couldn't. Arizona has won four of their last six against the spread and they are playing for revenge after UCLA pulled off an upset against the Wildcats two weeks ago. That was on UCLA

4* Vegas Insider on Syracuse +

This is a double revenge game for Syracuse who didn't even score 40 points in their last matchup against Georgetown. This is a team that should be fired up and ready to explode with a huge offensive performance today. The Orange have a solid defense too. They have allowed over 65 points only one time in their last eight games. Syracuse is 21-9 ATS on neutral courts as an underdog of 6 points or less.

There were a couple anomalies in the lat game between these teams. First of all, Syracuse was held to a season low of 31.9% from the field. Second, James Southerland went 0-8 shooting, scoring only one point. Southerland has scored 20 points in both of the Big East tournament games so it seems extremely unlikely that either of those poor shooting efforts from Syracuse will take place again today.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Prairie View A&M +

Alcorn State is averaging 60.5 points per game this season so it is no surprise that all of their offensive statistics are not very favorable. This game falls into a system to play on teams like Prairie View A&M when the line is +3 to -3 and they are averaging 63-67 points per game coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more playing against a horrible team averaging less than 63 points per game. This system is 44-20 (69%) ATS.

Prairie View A&M not only has the better scoring ability, but they are dominating Alcorn State in the rebounds column. A&M pulls in 40.5 boards per game compared to 32.2 by State. The additional shot attempts created from those extra rebounds is more than enough of a difference to help Prairie View pick up a win. This is also a revenge game for Prairie View as they were beat by 6 points back on February 28th. Alcorn State shot 54.9% in that game and even if they land somewhere between their season average and the 54.9% they shot in the last game they will be on the losing end of this matchup with Prairie View A&M.

3* Main Event on UCLA -

Arizona State is coming off an overtime game last night against Stanford. College teams are not conditioned to play in back to back situations because they rarely occur throughout the season. Throw an overtime game into the mix and we should see a very tired Arizona State team. UCLA already has a small rebounding advantage over the Sun Devils and they should be able to open up that margin in today

3* No Doubt Rout on Minnesota -

Minnesota is the better team even though the Golden Gophers have struggled in conference play. Nobody in the Big Ten played as difficult of a road schedule as Minnesota did. It took its toll on Minnesota as they had a weak finish to the regular season. That tough stretch of games has created a lot of value for tonight

5* Vegas Insider on Charlotte +

Charlotte has a big defensive advantage coming into this game. They have held opponents to 41.1% shooting this season which makes them one of the better defensive units Richmond has faced. Richmond is 2-10 ATS against good defensive teams that are allowing a shooting percentage below 42% on the year.

This is a big revenge game for Charlotte. The 49ers were embarrassed by the Spiders when these teams met back in January. Charlotte was ice cold from beyond the three point line while Richmond shot almost 50% from the field and 45% on 3 point attempts. Those are anomalies that are extremely unlikely to occur again, especially since Richmond will not have the luxury of playing on their home court.

These teams ended the regular season going in opposite directions. Charlotte got hot beating Duquesne on the road and picking up a big win over St Josephs. Richmond also picked up a win on their home court against Duquesne but dropped games to Dayton and Virginia Commonwealth. The win over St Josephs had to act as a big confidence booster for Charlotte as they come into this game trying to keep their season alive and revenge their early season loss.

3* No Doubt Rout on South Carolina -

South Carolina was favored by 9 points the last time these teams played back on March 6th. Nothing has changed since then to justify this line being cut almost in half. Mississippi State won that game but there were a lot of anomalies that are extremely unlikely to take place again. The Bulldogs shot 51.1% from the field and held the Gamecocks to a mere 28 rebounds. Those numbers are by far the best of the season for Mississippi State and the worst team in the conference has little to no chance at repeating that performance.

The Bulldogs are 0-4 in their last 4 neutral court games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games coming off an ATS win. They average only 60.6 points per game while allowing 76.6 per game when playing away from their home court. Mississippi State is by far the worst team in the conference and while South Carolina is certainly not a great team, they should have no problem revenging that March 6th loss.

5* Heavy Hitter on Colorado State -

Fresno State has lost five of their last eight games coming into this matchup. They have won their last two games against Air Force and UNLV because of poor shooting from their opponents. It is unlikely a team like Colorado State, that has won 24 games this season, is going to shoot an average of 30% from the field like Air Force and UNLV did. This same matchup was played just a couple weeks ago with Colorado State winning by 7 points. Fresno State shot 50% in that game, a feat they have accomplished only one time in their last 13+ games. Fresno only averages 38.9% from the field this season.

Colorado State is definitely the hot team coming into this game winning three out of their last four games. You should always play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Colorado State when they are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals, and they are a good team winning 60% to 80% of their games playing a bad team winning only 20% to 40% of their games on the season. This system is 106-62 (63.1%) over the last 5 seasons.

Colorado State is an excellent rebounding team playing against a poor rebounding team. Fresno is averaging only 32 rebounds per game with 9 of those coming on the offensive end of the court. Colorado State pulls in 41 boards per game with an average of 14 offensive rebounds. The Rams should dominate the boards and dominate this game with a blowout win over the Bulldogs.

3* No Doubt Rout on Syracuse -

Seton Hall is playing in a back to back game after going to overtime with South Florida last night. This late in the season they will have to be exhausted when they take on a well-rested Syracuse team. The Orange run a right defense holding opponents to 59.6 points per game away from home and that is big trouble for Seton Hall who averages 64.1 points per game and scored only 46 total points with an overtime session last night.

The Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record. Seton Hall has been very inconsistent this season, like most teams with a losing record, which explains why they are 1-4 ATS coming off an ATS win. These teams played less than a month ago on Seton Hall

3* No Doubt Rout on Howard +

Delaware State is a bad team, but when playing away from home they are really bad. Head Coach Greg Jackson is 2-9 ATS in all neutral court games as the coach of Delaware State. They are scoring a mere 57.3 points per game and allowing 68.3 defensively in road games this season.

You should play on underdogs like Howard when they are shooting 40% or less on the season against a defensive team allowing 42.5% to 45% after 15 or more games in the season. This system is 181-126 (59%) over the last five seasons. A game against a soft defense like Delaware State is just what Howard needs to pick up a win.

These teams just played 10 days ago. That game was decided by 3 points in favor of Delaware State. Now we are on a neutral court with Howard playing for revenge and to keep their season alive. They are certainly the more motivated team and considering how close this last game was we have to give them the nod today.