Sports Picks & Predictions

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Colorado State -

Colorado State is showing exceptional value here as a mere 3-point road favorite against in-state rival Denver. The Pioneers are just 5-5 on the season and have yet to beat a quality team. Their 5 wins have come against Idaho State, Coppin State, New Orleans and Texas A&M-CC (twice). This is not the same caliber a Denver team as year's past and they are not the same dominant home team.

Colorado State on the other hand are a perfect 10-0 and one of the most underrated teams out of the Mountain West. The Rams recently went on the road and beat Colorado 62-60 as a 5.5-point underdog and are simply not getting the respect they deserve.

Colorado State will also be out for revenge after losing at home 70-80 as a 9.5-point favorite last year. While returning guard Brett Olson was the leading scoring in last year's win, the real difference maker was departed forward Chris Udofia, who had 15 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 blocks. Adding to this is the fact that the Rams had won and covered each of the previous 4 meetings in the series, including a 60-53 road win in 2012 as a 3-point underdog.

Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 86% (19-3) system in favor of the Rams. Take Colorado State!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Duke -

The Blue Devils smallest margin of victory during their perfect 9-0 start is 10-points against both Michigan State and Wisconsin. I look for Duke to be all business against the defending champs, who are down a few notches. Connecticut comes in off a 40-point win over Coppin State, but prior to that they had lost 3 in a row to West Virginia, Texas and Yale.

The Huskies rely heavily on Ryan Boatright and Amida Brimah and that's just not enough to go up against this deep and talented Blue Devils squad. I look for freshman Jahlil Okafor to make Brimah a non-factor offensively, while coach K centers the rest of his defense around keeping Boatright in check and forcing someone else to beat them. This is a statement game for the Blue Devils and I wouldn't be shocked if they won here by 20+ points. Take Duke!

4* NCAAB Mid-Major Game of the Month on Old Dominion -

The Monarchs are showing some nice value here as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against Georgia State. Old Dominion will be out for revenge from last years 73-79 loss at Georgia State, which saw them lose despite shooting 51% from the field. The difference in the game being 32 made free throws for the Panthers compared to just 13 for the Monarchs. 

Old Dominion should have the calls go more in their favor on their home floor and I look for them to once again shoot at a very high percentage. The Monarchs should also control the glass and I wouldn't be shocked if Georgia State had an off night shooting, as they have been off since Dec. 4 (12 days). Old Dominion had been on a similar break before getting back on the floor in a 85-48 win over North Carolina A&T on Sunday.

It's also worth noting that the Monarchs have dominated so far this season on their home floor, which includes a 73-67 win over then No. 14 VCU and a 63-57 victory over Richmond. Georgia State on the other hand has struggled on the road. While they are 2-2, their two wins came against a couple of below average teams in Oakland (83-78) and IUPU (66-63). Look for the long layoff to be too much for the Panthers to overcome.

Old Dominion is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games when listed as a favorite, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 60 points or less in their last contest. Monarchs are also a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games, while Georgia State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (54-13) system in favor of the Monarchs. Take Old Dominion!

4* NCAAB ATS Blowout Game of the Month on Oklahoma -

The Sooners are actually showing some great value here against Oral Roberts as a 17.5-point favorite, as this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Golden Eagles. Oral Roberts just played last night at home against Missouri State in a makeup game from Dec. 7. Not only will the Golden Eagles be playing in rare back-to-back set, but this will be their 3rd game in 4 days, as they faced New Mexico on Saturday.

Oklahoma on the other hand will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 11 days. This will also be just the 2nd true home game for the Sooners since Nov. 23, which should have plenty motivated to take the floor in front of their home fans. Oklahoma three home games this season have all resulted in blowout wins. They beat SE Louisiana 78-53, Northwestern St 90-68 and Missouri 82-63. Oral Roberts adds even more value here, as they are 0-3 on the road, including a 14-point loss at Missouri.

Oklahoma is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 when playing only their 2nd game in a week, 13-5 in their last 18 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3 and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against a bad offensive team that is shooting 42% or worse from the field. Oral Roberts is 7-24 ATS in their last 31 when they have won 3 or their last 4 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 75% (72-24) system in favor of the Sooners. Take Oklahoma!

3* NCAAB No Doubt Rout on George Washington -

I cashed in on the Colonials as a 9-point home favorite Thursday against DePaul and I'm backing them again as a small road favorite against Penn State. The Nittany Lions are not as good as their 9-1 record would indicate, as they have benefited greatly from a soft schedule. Keep in mind that despite that strong record, Penn State is just 1-6 ATS.

I look for this one to be won on the defensive end and the Colonials hold a big edge on that side of the ball. George Washington is giving up just 59.2 ppg against teams that are averaging 64.8 ppg. Penn State on the other hand is allowing 68.1 ppg against teams that are averaging just 67.6 ppg.

Offensively these two teams are both scoring right around 73-74 ppg, but the Colonials are shooting 47.5% from the field while the Nittany Lions are only connecting on 43.4%. George Washington should have no problem building up a comfortable lead and covering this one without any problem.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road favorites with an excellent defense that is allowing 63 or less points/game against an opponent with an average defense that is giving up 67 to 74 points/game are 195-124 ATS  since 1997 after leading in their previous game by 15 or at the half. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the Colonials.

5* Big Chalk Game of the Month on Stanford -

The Cardinal should have no problem covering this number against Denver. The Pioneers were just lost at home by 10 points to UNI and each of their 3 previous losses (all on the road) have come by at least 16 points. Stanford's only two losses this season have come against Duke on a neutral site and at DePaul. They are a perfect 3-0 at home, where they are outscoring opponents by 17.3 ppg.

The big key here is that Denver is awful defensively. They allowed UNI to shoot 70% from the floor, which was the third time this season they allowed an opponent to shoot 60% or better. Stanford comes in shooting 45.4% against teams that are only allowing opponents on average to shoot 41.4%. The Cardinal have too much size and should score at will against the Pioneers inside. Defensively Stanford is only allowing opponents to shoot 37.1% at home and are allowing just 59.7 ppg. This one has blowout written all over it as the Cardinal should win here by 20+ rather easily.

Denver is 15-39-1 ATS in their last 55 road games against a team with a winning record, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 versus the Pac-12 and  3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against an opponent that is shooting 45% or better offensively and allowing 42% or less defensively. These trends combine to form a 76% (60-19) system in favor of the Cardinal. Take Stanford!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Michigan +

I know the Wolverines are coming into this game off back-to-back shocking losses at home to New Jersey Tech and Eastern Michigan, but I look for Michigan to bounce back and give Arizona all they can handle tonight. The Wolverines have wins over both Oregon (70-63) and Syracuse (68-65) and a close loss to a very good Villanova squad (55-60). Simply put those ugly loss for Michigan have created some big time value here, as they would not be catching double-digits had they won both of those games.

I know they just failed in this spot, but the Wolverines are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 off a home loss. Michigan is also 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games after playing 3 consecutive home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring less than 50 points and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Pac-12.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points who are off an upset loss as a favorite are 226-142 ATS in the month of December since 1997. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the Wolverines. Take Michigan!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Bowling Green -

The Falcons are showing great value here as a small home favorite against Cleveland State. Bowling Green is one of the more improved teams in the country under first year head coach Chris Jans, who was one of the top assistants at Wichita State the last seven years. Cleveland State is a quality team, but have really struggled on the road. The Vikings are just 1-3 away from home with the only win coming against a below average Marshall squad.

One of the areas where Jans has made his presence felt is on the defensive side of the floor. Opponents are shooting just 38.9% from the field against the Falcons this season. Cleveland State has shot just 38.9% from the floor on the road and I just don't see them being able to generate enough offense here.

Bowling Green is a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in each of their last 2 games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 versus the Horizon League. These trends combine to form a 83% (33-7) system in favor of the Falcons. Take Bowling Green!

4* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on George Washington -

While DePaul is off to an impressive 6-1 start, I look for the Blue Demons to struggle to be competitive here against the Colonials. This will be DePaul's first real road test of the season as their only other away game came against an inferior in-state foe in Chicago State. George Washington is a perfect 3-0 at home, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 33.4 ppg.

Offensively both of these teams come in averaging a lot of points. The Blue Demons are scoring 79.7 ppg and the Colonials are putting up 72.9 ppg. However, defensively there's a quite a difference here. George Washington is allowing just 58.0 ppg against teams averaging 62.9 ppg, while DePaul is allowing 68.4 ppg against teams averaging just 66.2 ppg. With the Blue Demons' offense figuring to not be up to par on the road, I look for the Colonials defense to be the difference and allow George Washington to win here by double-digits rather easily.

DePaul is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 12+ ppg and George Washington is 29-14 ATS in their last 43 home games after scoring 75+ in two straight games.

Adding to this is a strong system in play telling us to fade DePaul. Road underdogs who are an excellent offensive team (76+ ppg) against an excellent defensive teams (63 or less ppg) that come in off 3 straight wins by 10 or more are just 47-90 ATS since 1997. That's a 66% system in favor of the Colonials. Take George Washington!

4* NCAAB Late Night Bailout Game of the Month on Cal -

The Golden Bears are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against Wyoming. Cal's only loss on the season came against a Final Four contender in Texas. The Cowboys are also off to an impressive start at 8-1, but that lone loss came in their only other true road game against SMU, which they lost convincingly 53-66. It's also worth noting that Wyoming has played a soft schedule to this point. While they have a big win over Colorado on their resume, the Buffaloes have a lot of improving to do if they are going to make the NCAA Tournament.

The big key here is that the Cowboys just aren't as good on the road as they are at home. Wyoming went 14-4 at home last year, compared to just 4-9 on the road. Cal on the other hand was 13-4 at home last year and that's that much more impressive when you consider they play in a pretty solid Pac-12 conference.

Wyoming is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Cal on the other hand is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. These trends combine to form a 78% (28-8) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Denver +

The Pioneers are showing some great value here as a home underdog against Northern Iowa. The Panthers just recently cracked the Top 25 (No. 23) and while this is a solid squad, I think we are seeing them overvalued on the road. Magness Arena is a difficult place for opposing teams to play, especially a small school like UNI that doesn't do a ton of traveling. This will be just the second true road game for the Panthers. While they won the first, they needed overtime to escape SF Austin with a 79-77 win. Denver is just 4-3 overall, but are a perfect 3-0 at home with all three wins coming by double-digits.

Couple other factors here that I think are working in our favor is that Northern Iowa has a huge game on deck at VCU this Saturday, which is going to make it difficult for the Panthers to give a 3-loss Pioneers team their full attention. The other being that both of these teams like to slow the game down and rely on their defense to win games, which makes the 3.5 points we are getting that much more valuable.

Northern Iowa is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after playing 3 straight as a favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 30 points or less in the 1st half in each of their last two games. Denver on the other hand is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. These trends combine to form a 82% (31-7) system in favor of the Pioneers. Take Denver!

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Purdue -

The Boilermakers should have no problem covering this spread at home against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are just 2-2 on the season with their two wins coming against the likes of Central Arkansas and Belhaven. The real key who they lost to. They lost by 5-points at home to Lamar, whose only other win on the season is against the LSU-Alexandria Generals. Lamar also has losses by 39-points to SMU and 37 to ISU. Arkansas State also lost at home to Tennessee-Martin, who has double-digit defeats against both Marquette and Nebraska. Winning here by 20-points isn't going to be an issue for Purdue, who has a 52-point win over Grambling, 40-point win over Samford, 21-point win over Missouri and 20-points wins over IUPU and IPFW.

Adding to all of this is a strong system suggesting a fade of the Red Wolves. Road underdogs of 10 or more points who are off a home win where they scored 85 or more points and only returned 1 or 0 starters are 32-67 ATS since 1997. That's a 68% long-term system in favor of the Boilermakers. Take Purdue!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +

The Aggies are showing great value here as a 5.5-point underdog against their former Big 12 rivals. Despite a 6-1 start that includes an impressive home win over Arizona State and their only defeat coming by 2-points at Dayton, Texas A&M is not getting the respect they deserve because of three straight seasons without a NCAA Tournament berth. However, this is the best team Texas A&M has filed since Billy Kennedy took over and a big reason for that is the addition of two key transfers. Jalen Jones came over from SMU and is leading the team with 12.4 ppg and Danuel House is 2nd at 11.8 after transferring in from Houston.

It's not just Jones and House that have sparked the Aggies strong start. Texas A&M has provided a balanced attack with 6 different players average 7 or more points/game. Baylor is a quality team, but are missing one of their key players in senior guard Kenny Cherry (10.3 ppg). His absence has put a ton of pressure on Taurean Prince and Royce O'Neal to shoulder their scoring load and I believe it has the Bears vulnerable. Look for the Aggies to keep this one close and potentially win here outright.

Home teams who have allowed 65 points or less in 2 straight games against an opponent off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are a mere 49-90 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Aggies. Take Texas A&M!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Air Force -

The Falcons are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against Nebraska-Omaha. Air Force is a perfect 3-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 73 to 47 (+26 ppg), while the Mavericks are just 1-3 on the road getting outscored by 11.7 ppg. I see this one being decided on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons are only giving up 58.7 ppg and holding opponents to just 38.7% shooting, while Nebraska-Omaha is allowing 80.0 ppg and 47.1% shooting.

Air Force is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when they come in having won at least 4 of their last 6 and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games after being listed as an underdog in each of their last two games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (35-8) system in favor of the Falcons. Take Air Force!

4* NCAAB ATS Blowout Game of the Month on Cal -

The Golden Bears should have no problem cruising to an easy win at Nevada this afternoon. The Wolfpack are way down this season and the books have been slow to react, thus creating great opportunities to fade this team early on. Nevada has lost 5 straight with the last 3 coming against the likes of Weber State, Nebraska-Omaha and Long Beach State. The only loss on the season for Cal is a neutral site game against Texas, who is a legit Final 4 contender. The Bears did struggle last time out, needing double-overtime to beat Montana at home, but that should have them coming out focused against Nevada.

Wolfpack are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons against teams who are outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game. Nevada is also just 1-10 ATS when off a road loss of 10 or more points. These two trends combine to form a dynamite 94% (16-1) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

3* NCAAB Member Only Play on Valparaiso -

This is a great spot to fade New Mexico. The Lobos are coming off a big game against in-state rival New Mexico State, which they won 62-47 as a 1.5-point home dog. This is not the same caliber a New Mexico team from last year. The Lobos lost Cameron Bairstow (20.4 ppg), Kendall Williams (16.0 ppg) and Alex Kirk (13.3 ppg), plus they are without this season's leading scorer Cullen Neal (17.0 ppg). I just don't see them responding well in this one. This will be the Lobos first true road game of the season and we have already seen them lose by double-digits in neutral site games against both USC and Texas A&M. Valparaiso's only loss is at Missouri back in their second game of the season. Since that loss they have won 7 straight with 6 of those wins coming by at least 13-points. Look for the Crusaders to have no problem winning here by double-digits. Take Valparaiso!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Loyola-Chicago -

Loyola-Chicago should have no problem going on the road and taking care of business against a bad Illinois-Chicago team. Both of these teams have played on the road at Kent State. The Ramblers won 69-61, while the Flames got beat by 18-points (60-78). It's also worth noting that UIC just lost at home to Grand Canyon. The Flames only two wins this season have come against the likes of Western Illinois and St. Xavier, while the Ramblers only two losses have come against Michigan State and Tulane. I look for Loyola to take control of this game early and win here by double-digits. It's also worth noting that the Ramblers have won 2 straight and 3 of 4 in the series.

UIC is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after a SU loss, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their last game on the road and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games when listed as an underdog of 6 points or less. These trends combine to form a dynamite 96% (24-1) system in favor of the Ramblers. Take Loyola-Chicago!

3* NCAAB Member Only Play on Miami -

This is a complete mismatch and I look for the Hurricanes to add to their impressive 8-0 start with an easy win at home against Wisconsin-Green Bay. The Phoenix were just embarrassed at Georgia State by 24-points last time out and lost by 24 earlier this season at Wisconsin. Miami has shown that they are for real with impressive wins over ranked opponents in Florida and Illinois. They also knocked off a quality Charlotte team twice in 3 days and rolled over a decent Akron team by 28-points. Green Bay does have a big time talent in Keifer Sykes, but there's just not enough talent around him and I look for him to struggle against the athletic guards of Miami.

Road underdogs of 10 or more points that are a poor offensive team (63-67 ppg) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less ppg) who trailed in their previous game by 15 or more at the half are just 11-34 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami!

4* NCAAB No Brainer Game of the Month on Oklahoma State -

The books have completely missed the mark on this one. Oklahoma State may have lost star guard Marcus Smart, but the Cowboys are still have a lot more talent on the floor than that of South Carolina. Oklahoma State has opened up 7-0 with an impressive 73-58 victory over Tulsa in the MGM title game. Junior Phil Forte III (19.3 ppg) and senior Le'Bryan Nash (18.3) have carried the load offensively for the Cowboys early and are getting plenty of contributions from the rest of the team (7 other players average 4+ ppg).

I look for Oklahoma State to have no problem going on the road and knocking off a South Carolina squad that is just 4-3 on the season. Keep in mind that last year the Cowboys destroyed the Gamecocks 79-52 in Stillwater. It's not going to be near as big of a blowout this time around, but Oklahoma State should win here rather easily.

South Carolina is 9-22 ATS in their last 31 home games when listed as an underdog of 3 points or less, just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 versus the Big 12 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 72% (31-12) system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Oklahoma State!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Iowa State -

The Cyclones have one of the best homecourt advantages in the country and have won 23-straight at Hilton Coliseum against non-conference opponents. This is going to be an electric atmosphere with Iowa State hosting a ranked opponent and I look for this team to respond with one of their best performances of the season.

While Arkansas has an impressive road win over SMU, the rest of their schedule has featured a bunch of cupcakes. I look for the Razorbacks to struggle on the road against what will be the best team they have seen so far in 2014. Keep in mind that Arkansas is historically not a good bet away from home.

The Razorbacks are just 25-55 ATS over their last 18 road games against an opponent with a winning home record. Arkansas is also a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 against the Big 12 and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games off a home win by 10 or more points (average loss by 12.2 ppg). Iowa State on the other hand is 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 home games against a team with a winning road record, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs the SEC (already beat Alabama 84-74) and 8-2 in their last 10 overall against a team who has won more than than 60% of their games. All these trends add up to a massive 71% (142-59) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State!

4* NCAAB Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on Long Beach State -

This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on a team out of the Big West, but Long Beach State should have no problem making easy work of Nevada. The Wolfpack are in a big rebuilding phase this season after losing their top 3 scorers, including the Mountain West's second-leading scorer in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg). Nevada comes in having lost 4 straight, including a 24-point loss at Nebraska-Omaha last time out.

Long Beach State has 4 starters back from last year and a number of their top reserves. This 49ers team has played an absolutely brutal schedule to this point, having already faced the likes of BYU, Xavier, Kansas State, UCLA Washington and Xavier a second time. Long Beach is 4-4 with wins over Kansas State and Xavier, but what really stands out is how they have been competitive in most of their losses. They lost by just 5-points at BYU, 14 at UCLA and 10 on a neutral court against Washington.

I look for the 49ers to come out extremely motivated in their first home game since Nov. 21 and that should lead to a blowout win that has them easily covering this large spread. Long Beach State is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, while Nevada is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 off a road loss and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a road loss of 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 83% (29-6) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Long Beach State!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Iowa +

I believe the Hawkeyes are showing some great value here as a 8-point underdog against the Tar Heels. Iowa's only two losses this season have come against Texas and Syracuse and keep in mind that they were just a 4-point dog to the Longhorns and a 2.5-point favorite versus Syracuse. This Iowa team didn't play anywhere close to their potential in either of those games.

There's no question that North Carolina is the more talented team, but Iowa's length inside and stingy defense should give the Tar Heels problems. North Carolina has not done a good job of protecting the basketball, committing 49 turnovers in their last 3 games. Iowa thrives on forcing mistakes and I believe those turnovers are going to keep Iowa in this game and it wouldn't come as a huge shock if they pulled off the upset. This is a much better Hawkeye team than they get credit for.

There's a nice system in play suggesting a fade of the Tar Heels. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who allowed 25 or less in the 1st half of their last game against an opponent off 2 straight wins by 15 or more points are just 13-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year on William & Mary +

The Tribe are showing big time value here in this in-state rivalry showdown against Richmond. William & Mary enter on a 5-game winning streak with the only loss on the season come at Florida in the opener. The Spiders on the other hand are just 2-3 with their only two wins coming against High Point and Radford.

William & Mary lost 3 starters from last year, but got back First-Team All CAA guard Marcus Thornton and CAA Freshman of the Year Omar Prewitt. Thornton is averaging 17.0 ppg so far in 2014 and Prewitt isn't far behind at 12.2. Both of these guys can light it up from the outside and that's a big concern for Richmond, who is allowing opponents to connect on 39.1% from the 3-point line. The Spiders are down this year with the losses of seniors Cedrick Lindsay and Derrick Williams and simply should not be laying this many points. William & Mary isn't just good enough to cover, I could easily see them winning this game outright.

Richmond is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 60 points or less in their last contest and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. William & Marry is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 versus a team with a losing record and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games off a win by 6 points or less.

Adding to all of this is a great system. Underdogs with an average offense (67-74 ppg) against an opponent with a poor offense (63-67 ppg), after allowing 65 or less in 4 straight games are 48-20 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Tribe. Take William & Mary!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Indiana -

I believe we are seeing the Hoosiers undervalued at home in this one, due to their upset loss to Eastern Washington last week. Indiana bounced back with a 87-79 win over UNC Greensboro and I look for them to be all business when they take the floor against Pittsburgh. It's not like the Hoosiers haven't shown they can step up against better teams, as they knocked then No. 22 SMU at home 74-68 back on Nov. 20. Pitt has lost at Hawaii 70-74 and got beat badly in the Maui Invitational by San Diego State 57-74.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the Panthers are not at full strength. Leading returning scorer Cameron Wright is out with a foot injury, leaving Pitt with just two starters on the floor from last year. Without Wright it's going to be hard for the Panthers offensively, especially on the road in a hostile environment like Assembly Hall.

Indiana is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games with a line of +3 to -3, while Pittsburgh is just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus the Big 10. These trends combine to form a 77% (33-10) system in favor of the Hoosiers. Take Indiana!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Georgia -

Georgia comes into this game off back-to-back losses against No. 10 Gonzaga (76-88) and Minnesota (62-66) at the NIT Season Tip-Off. I think it has the Bulldogs laying a favorable number on the road against Chattanooga, who they annihilated last year at home by 31-points (87-56). The Mocs have already lost by 44-points at Wisconsin and 22 at Butler this season. They also come in off a 69-77 loss at Kennesaw St, who lost by 47 at Syracuase and 34 at Cal.

Not only do those two losses have Georgia undervalued, it's going to have them highly motivated when they take the floor tonight. All this adds up to the Bulldogs winning here by double-digits without any problem. Georgia is 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games after playing their last contest as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a loss.

We also find a nice system in play, as road teams from a major 1-A conference against a team from a weak 1-A conference are 65-30 ATS since 1997. That's a 68% system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Georgia!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on UNI -

UNI is showing some great value here laying less than double-digits at home against Richmond. The Panthers have opened up the season 6-0 with impressive wins of late against Virginia Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42). The Spiders on the other hand are just 2-2, but it's not surprising to see this team struggle out of the gates with the departure of seniors Cedrick Lindsay and Derrick Williams. These two both were out at the end of last year and Richmond went just 2-6 down the stretch to finish 19-14. The big key here is that there's simply not a enough respect given to these Missouri Valley teams' homecourt edge. Not to mention UNI is loaded this year with all 5 starters back, plus the addition of Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four redshirt freshmen.

Richmond is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games. Northern Iowa is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the A-10. These trends combine to form a 90% (27-3) system in favor of the Panthers. Take UNI!

5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on West Virginia -

The No. 21 Mountaineers should have no problem covering this double-digit spread against Charleston. Even though we aren't far into the season, each of these teams have played both George Mason and Connecticut. The Mountaineers beat George Mason 91-65, while the Cougars barely escaped with a 61-60 victory. West Virginia knocked off UConn 78-68, while Charleston lost to the Huskies 57-65. That right there really says a lot about how much more talented the Mountaineers are and adding even more value here is that this game is at home for West Virginia.

Charleston is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record, while West Virginia is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 off a blowout win by 30 or more points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after a game committing 15 less turnovers than their opponent. These trends combine to form a 78% (39-11) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Creighton -

The Bluejays weren't expected to be this good this early after losing 4 starters from last year, including the National Player of the Year in Doug McDermott. Creighton has had 5 different players lead the team in scoring in their 5-0 start and the scary thing is they have not shot the ball anywhere close to what they are capable of, especially from the outside.

Ole Miss also lost a big time player from last year in guard Marshall Henderson (19.0 ppg). Unlike the Bluejays, the Rebels really look like they are missing their star from a year ago. Ole Miss got up set in their home opener against Charleston Southern. While they have since won 3 straight, they edged out Troy by just 10 and barely escaped with a 6-point home win over Northern Arizona, who lost by 33 to Xavier.

Creighton is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games, 8-1 in their last 9 off 2 straight home wins by 10 or more points, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after leading in their previous game by 15+ points at the half and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 60 points or less in each of their last games. These trends combine to form a 80% (47-12) system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton!

4* NCAAB No Brainer Game of the Month on Arizona -

Arizona is showing great value here against undefeated San Diego State. The Aztecs are getting all kinds of respect after back-to-back impressive wins over BYU (92-87) and Pittsburgh (74-57), which has this line a lot lower than it should be. Arizona is the far superior team and will have the best players on the floor in sophomore forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and freshman Stanley Johnson. It's also worth noting that these two teams played twice last year including a matchup in the Sweet 16. Arizona won both of those contests by more than 5 points. Adding to this is they no longer have the services of Xavier Thames who scored 44 points in the two games against the Wildcats.

Another big key here is that while both of these teams are extremely talented on the defensive end of the floor, Arizona has the better offense and that should allow them to create the separation needed to cover this spread. The Wildcats come in shooting 50% from the field against teams who are only allowing opponents to make 43.7% of their attempts, while San Diego State is hitting on just 42.7% vs teams allowing 40.4% shooting. Take Arizona!

3* Florida/Georgetown NCAAB Main Event on Georgetown -

This is a great spot to go against Florida, who are dealing with some serious injury problems right now. The Gators are expected to have just 6 scholarship players available against Georgetown. The injuries have clearly hampered them. In their last two games they have lost outright at home to Miami as a 8-point favorite and needed overtime to escape with a 61-56 overtime win at home against ULM as a 20.5-point favorite. The fact that the Gators are still ranked No. 18 and will be going up against an unranked opponent, has them overvalued again. While Georgetown is favored, I believe they should be an even bigger favorite. The Hoyas are a well-coached team under John Thompson III and are expected to be more like the team that started 11-4 and not the one that ended last year 7-11.

There's a strong system backing a play on Georgetown here. Favorites off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 or more points with 2 or more starters returning than their opponent are 40-12 ATS in the first 10 games of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 77% system in favor of the Hoyas. Take Georgetown!

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Georgia State -

Georgia State is one of the better kept secrets in college basketball. Last year the Panthers went 25-9 on their way to a Sun Belt regular season title. Georgia State gets back the nucleus from last year and are absolutely loaded in the backcourt with R.J. Hunter (2013 Sun Belt Player of the Year), senior point guard Ryan Harrow (1st Team All Sun Belt) and Kevin Ware (Louisville transfer). The Panthers should have their way against an Oakland team that has started out just 1-4 with their only win coming against Chicago State.

Georgia State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win. Oakland is just 5-20-2 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a losing road record and 3-13 in their last 16 versus a team with a winning record and 0-9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games overall.

There's also a strong system in play. Road favorites who are off a cover as a double-digit favorite are 74-39 ATS in the month of November since 1997. That's a 66% system in favor of the Panthers. Take Georgia State!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Miami (OH) +

The RedHawks are showing some great value here as a 8.5-point underdog. Both of these teams look to slow the game down and win with their defense, which makes a 8.5-point spread a lot for the likes of Northwestern to cover.

The Wildcats lost their star guard in Drew Crawford, who averaged 15.7 of their 59.5 points per game. Without Crawford to rely on offensively, Northwestern just doesn't have the fire-power to blow teams out. That's evident by their less than impressive wins to start the year against Houston Baptist, Brown, North Florida and Elon. While they won all 4, their largest win came by 7-points. Miami (OH) isn't a great team but they are the best the Wildcats have faced so far.

Northwestern is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games of a win by 6-points or less and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off 2 or more consecutive victories. Wildcats are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral site. These trends combine to form a 86% (24-4) system in favor of the RedHawks. Take Miami (OH)!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Iowa State -

I cashed in on the Cyclones -6 last night against Alabama and I look for Iowa State to cruise to another double-digit win over Maryland. The game will once again be played at Sprint Center in Kansas City, which is the site of the Big 12 Tournament and considered by many Cyclone fans to be Hilton South. Not only does Iowa State have a minor homecourt edge, but they are the better team. Fred Hoiberg has the Cyclones loaded with talent and are poised to contend for a Big 12 title this season. Maryland is no longer a basketball powerhouse and this past offseason 5 players transferred to play elsewhere. The Terrapins have lost 24 of their last 29 games against ranked opponents and haven't beat a ranked opponent on a neutral court since 2008.

Iowa State is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral site and 8-1 in their last 9 against a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 79% (27-7) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State!

5* Non-Conference No Limit Game of the Year on Penn State -

The Nittany Lions are being undervalued by the books after failing to cover the spread in 3 straight, which included a couple of less than impressive wins over Cornell (72-71) and USC (63-61). With Akron missing their top returning scorer and rebounder in Demetrius Treadwell (15.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg), the Zips are not equipped to go on the road and keep it close enough to cover against Penn State. The Nittany Lions got back a ton of talent from last year's team, including one of the top Big Ten players in D.J. Newbill. He will easily be the best player on the floor tonight and that's a big reason why I'm siding with Penn State at home.

Akron is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record, while Penn State is 24-11 ATS in their last 35 versus poor rebounding teams who are getting outrebounded by 4+ boards/game. Zips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games. These trends combine to form a 73% (51-19) system in favor of the Nittany Lions. Take Penn State!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Seton Hall -

The Pirates are showing great value here as a mere 3-point favorite against Illinois State. While the Red Birds have won rather easily in their first two games of the Paradise Jam with victories over the likes of Weber State (73-64) and Old Dominion (64-45), but neither of those are real impressive wins. What stands out to me is that this team lost at home to Utah State in their opener. Utah State isn't anywhere close to a tournament team, as they lost all 5 starters and a couple key contributors off the bench. Seton Hall is a program on the rise aren't quite there yet and as a result are showing value against inferior competition.

Seton Hall is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 8-0 in their last 8 road games when listed as the favorite. Adding to this is that Illinois State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring the spread in 2 out of their last 3. These trends combine to form a dynamite 96% (24-1) system in favor of the Pirates. Take Seton Hall!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Iowa State -

While both of these teams come in undefeated, Iowa State is the much more talented team in my open. The Cyclones are talented enough to contend with Kansas and Texas for the Big 12 title, while Alabama will be a middle of the pack team in the weak SEC. One of the hidden keys here is that while this game is being played on a neutral court at the Sprint Center in Missouri, this is a short trip for Iowa State fans and I'm expecting them to heavily out-number the Razorbacks faithful. Alabama simply doesn't have the offensive playmakers to keep up with the Cyclones. While they get back 4 starters, they lose All-SEC guard Trevor Releford (18.5 ppg). Iowa State on the other hand has a great nucleus of talent coming back and are one of the deepest teams in the country.

Iowa State has had plenty of time to rest up for this one and are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games when playing just their 2nd game in 8 days. Cyclones are also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning % above .600. Alabama is 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 off a SU win and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus the Big 12 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral site. These trends combine to form a 76% (55-17) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State!

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Michigan State -

The Spartans rebounded from that poor showing against Duke with a 87-52 win over Loyola-Illinois and I look for them to carry over that momentum with another easy home win against Santa Clara. Michigan State has a young team, which is why it wasn't surprising to see them struggle at Navy and against the Blue Devils in Indianapolis. The Broncos went just 14-19 last year and are simply not a well coached team. They are completely outmatched from a talent aspect and will have a difficult time just keeping it within 25 points. Keep in mind Santa Clara just lost 54-60 at Utah State, who lost all 5 starters from 2013-14.

Michigan State is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against bad pressure teams who force 12 or less turnovers/game and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after leading in their previous game by 15 or more at the half. Adding to this is that the Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons. These trends combine to form a 88% (23-3) system in favor of the Spartans. Take Michigan State!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Georgia -

The Bulldogs missed out on the NCAA Tournament last year because of a poor showing early in non-conference play. Georgia knows they have to take care of business in these games and I expect them to do just that against Florida Atlantic. The Owls plummeted to 10-22 last year and while they get back 4 starters, they lose their senior captain in Pablo Bertone, who led C-USA in scoring at 19.0 ppg. FAU has already lost on the road to Elon 58-64 and Harvard 49-71.

Favorites of 10 or more points off a home blowout win by 20+ who have won 60% to 80% of their games against an opponent that has won 20% to 40% are 66-32 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Georgia!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Colorado -

The Buffaloes are one of the teams that I think could surprise and win the Pac-12 title over Arizona. The only player Colorado lost from last year's 23-12 team was Spencer Dinwiddie, who missed a lot of last year with an injury. The Buffaloes' have been more than impressive in their first two games, beating Drexel 65-48 as a 14-point favorite and Auburn 90-59 as a 11.5-point favorite. Now we find them laying just 1.5-points on the road against Wyoming, who hasn't looked great in home wins over Northern Colorado (78-70) and Western State (61-46). The Buffaloes simply aren't getting the respect they deserve, as this should be a team that's ranked in the Top 25.

There's a nice system in play on Colorado. Road favorites off a cover as a double-digit favorite in the month of November are 74-38 ATS since 1997. That's a 66% system in favor of the Buffaloes. Take Colorado!

3* NCAAB Underdog Shocker on Davidson +

The books are giving North Carolina a little too much respect off a couple of easy home games against NC Central and Robert Morris. Davidson gave the Tar Heels all they could handle last year in Chapel Hill before eventually losing 85-97 in overtime. This time the game will be played on a neutral court at Charlotte's Time Warner Cable Arena. I look for the Wildcats to give North Carolina another big scare and wouldn't be shocked if they pulled off the big upset against their in-state rival.

Davidson is 81-57 ATS in their last 138 games when playing against a team with a winning record, while North Carolina is 24-42 ATS in their last 66 off 2 or more consecutive home wins and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after a combined score of 155 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a solid 61% (132-83) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Davidson!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Wake Forest -

The Demon Deacons were destroyed in their last game, losing by 30-points at Arkansas on Wednesday. I believe that has created some exceptional value on the Demon Deacons in their home matchup against Iona. Prior to that loss Wake Forest had a couple of impressive wins over UNC-Asheville (80-69) and Tulane (71-49). Iona on the other hand was just lost at Wofford by 13-points in their last contest. Wake Forest has won 15 of their last 19 home games, which is a big reason why I'm not reading too much into that ugly road loss to Arkansas. I have a lot of confidence in 2nd-year head coach Danny Manning and his ability to get this program back on track. Either way, the Demon Deacons are greatly undervalued in this one and should win here comfortably.

Wake Forest is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU loss by more than 20 points, while the Gaels are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. These two trends combine to form a 76% (26-8) system in favor of the Demon Deacons. Take Wake Forest!

5* NCAAB No Brainer Game of the Month on Iowa -

The Hawkeyes are favored for good reason against the Orange. While both teams are coming off double-digit losses in the first round of the 2K Classic, I was a lot more impressed with the Hawkeyes. Iowa had a lead early against Texas but had one of their worst offensive showings they will likely have all season. The Hawkeyes made just 29.6%. Syracuse was dominated right from the start by Cal and this is simply not the same caliber an Orange team as previous years. They lost C.J. Fair, Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant from last year's team and are counting on freshman Kaleb Joseph to run the all-important point guard spot in Syracuse's system. Joseph should eventually evolve into a big time player, but the Orange figure to struggle early against experienced teams like the Hawkeyes.

Teams who had a winning record the previous season who went 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, playing in a game with two teams who have a winning record are 23-5 ATS on a neutral site in the first 5 games of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 82% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Seton Hall -

Seton Hall should have no problem covering this single-digit spread against the Wolf Pack. While the Pirates lost 3 starters from last year, I believe this year's team is better than the one that finished 17-17. They get back an experienced point guard in junior Sterling Gibbs and are expecting big things out of McDonald's All-American shooting guard Isaiah Whitehead. The big key here is that Nevada is in a major rebuilding phase and simply don't have the offensive fire-power to compete with a team like Seton Hall. The Wolf Pack lost their star in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg), along with their next two top scorers in Cole Huff (12.4 ppg) and Jerry Evans Jr. (12.3 ppg). Combined that's 44.8 points they have to replace, which is over half of the 72.4 ppg they averaged in 2013-14.

Seton Hall is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing their last game at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing their last game as a favorite. These trends combine to form a 83% (20-4) system in favor of the Pirates. Take Seton Hall!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Gardner-Webb +

Clemson shouldn't be laying this big of a number against a quality opponent like Gardner-Webb. While the Tigers have 4 starters back from last year, they lost their star in K.J. McDaniels, who averaged 17.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, while also earned ACC Defensive Player of the year. Clemson simply doesn't have anyone to replace his productivity and that was evident in their last game, which they lost 74-77 to Winthrop (wasn't even a line available on that game). Garner-Webb showed they can hang with the big boys in a competitive loss at LSU in their opener and bounced back with a 80-67 win over a College of Charleston, who just gave UConn a run last night. I look for this one to go right down to the wire and wouldn't be shocked if the Bulldogs won this one outright.

Gardner-Webb is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after covering last time out, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off a SU win and 8-1 in their last 9 non-conference games. These trends combine to form a 82% (32-7) system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Garner-Webb!

4* Syracuse/Cal ESPN2 Heavy Hitter on Syracuse -

Syracuse is showing great value here as a mere 5-point favorite against the Golden Bears. The Orange have been nearly unbeatable when it comes to non-conference regular season games. In fact, they are 67-1 since the 2009-10 campaign. These two teams played last year in Maui and Syracuse won 92-81. I'm expecting a similar margin of victory, though I don't expect it to be quite as high-scoring. The Orange once again look to have an elite defense under jim Boeheim and I think a big reason they are showing such great value is people assume this high-flying Cal offense is going to give them trouble. Despite it being early in the season, both teams have played Kennesaw St. The Orange won 89-42 (+57), while Cal beat them 93-59 (+34). I'll take the better defense and the more talented team to win here by at least 6 points. Take Syracuse!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Maryland -

Maryland should have no problem blowing out Fordham and bringing home an easy cover. The Rams went just 10-21 last year and lost one of their best players in guard Brandon Frazier, who averaged 18.2 ppg. Fordham just lost to Penn State 54-73, which is a great sign that they are not ready to compete with the likes of the Terrapins. Maryland is a team on the rise under Mark Turgeon, who just landed one of the nations top recruiting classes (4 top 10 freshman) along with Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter. The Terps have been more than impressive in their first two games, beating Wagner 82-48 and Central Connecticut 93-57. Take Maryland!

3* NCAAB Main Event on Texas -

You might think Iowa has the size and depth to match the length and athleticism of Texas, but their big guys don't have the muscle to keep the Longhorns from imposing their will inside. Texas has everyone back from last year, plus they added one of the top recruits in the country in Myles Turner. Iowa may keep this close early, but look for the Longhorns to take over in the 2nd half and win here comfortably. Take Texas!

3* NCAAB No Doubt Rout on Michigan -

Most are expecting Michigan to take a big step back after losing the likes of Nick Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary, Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford from last year's team, but head coach Jon Beilein has done a tremendous job of recruiting. There's more than enough talent here for Michigan to beat Detroit by at least 20 points tonight. The Titans are a solid team and should end up contending for the Horizon title, but are simply outmatched in this one. Take Michigan!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Penn State -

The books have made a mistake by listing the Nittany Lions as such a small favorite against Charlotte. While Penn State lost one of their top players from last year in Tim Frazier, they bring back one of the elite Big Ten players in D.J. Newbill, who averaged 17.8 ppg last year. This is now the 3rd year under head coach Patrick Chambers and I look for the Penn State to be a more competitive team than they were a year ago. Charlotte gets back 4 starters, but lot a key part of their team in point guard Denzel Ingram, who transferred. Look for Newbill and the Nittany Lions to gain control early and win here by at least 4-points easily. Take Penn State! 

3* NCAAB Early Bird Main Event on Charleston +

This is more of a play against Connecticut, as the Huskies are going to be overvalued early after winning it all last year. The big key here is that UConn lost a lot of talent from that squad, most notably Shabazz Napier. They also lost forward DeAndre Daniels (13.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg), 3-pt specialist Niels Giffey (54% 3pt FG pct) and Lasan Kromah (6.1 ppg). While they get back Ryan Boatright and Amida Brimah, they simply aren't going to be as dominant as they were last season. While the Cougars went just 14-18 last year, big improvements are expected in the 3rd season under head coach Doug Wojcik and I just don't see the Huskies giving them the type of respect needed to win here by more than 14 points. Take Charleston!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Arkansas -

I look for Arkansas to have no problem making easy work of the Demon Deacons. The Razorbacks come into the 2014-15 campaign highly motivated off after feeling like they got snubbed out of a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas has 3 starters back and with some big time recruits added in the offseason, look to be even better in than last year. Wake Forest is headed in the right direction under new head coach Danny Manning, but are not built to win this season. The Demon Deacons lost their 4 best players from last year's 17-16 squad. Take Arkansas!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Arizona -

While the Wildcats lost two of their top players from last year in Aaron Gordon and Nick Johnson, head coach Sean Miller has restocked the cupboard with another great recruiting class and most agree that this year's team is the best he's had in what will be his 6th year at Arizona. The Wildcats have cruised in each of their first two games with a 23-point win over Mt. St. Mary's and 20-point victory against CS Northridge. I'm expecting more of the same against UC Irvine. The Anteaters are a quality team but are simply no where close in terms of talent to the Wildcats. Take Arizona!

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Year on Wisconsin -

The Badgers should have no problem taking down one of their in-state foes in Wisconsin-Green Bay. While the Phoenix put a scare into Wisconsin last year on their home floor, losing by a final of just 66-69, that's a positive going into this matchup. The Badgers aren't going to look past Green Bay, especially on their home floor. Wisconsin-Green Bay still has talented guard Keifer Sykes, who put in 32 last year against the Badgers, but the Phoenix don't have much of a supporting cast around him. Look for Bo Ryan and his staff to have a much better gameplan for Sykes this time around, which should have them winning here by 20+ points rather easily. It's also worth noting Wisconsin is 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 non-conference games, which includes a 13-4 record of the last two seasons.

There's a strong system in play as well. Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points, in a matchup of a major division 1 conference team against a mid-major conference team are 137-75 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points since 1997. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin!

3* Creighton/Oklahoma NCAAB Main Event on Oklahoma -

The Blue Jays are getting way too much respect at home against the Sooners, largely due to the fact that Creighton has won 47 straight home games prior to Nov. 26. The big key here is that the Blue Jays are in a major rebuilding phase in 2014. Creighton lost 4 starters from last year, including the National Player of the Year in Doug McDermott. Oklahoma on the other hand has 4 starters back from last year's team that went 23-10 (12-6 Big 12) and have added in big talent in Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who averaged 16.2 points and 8.9 rebounds over 66 games the last two years with the Cougars. Simply put the Sooners are the far superior team and should have no problem winning here by at least 6 points. Take Oklahoma!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Evansville -

The Purple Aces are showing great value here as a mere 5-point favorite against Miami (OH). Evansville went just 14-19 last year, but were in the process of a major rebuilding phase, as they had the 4th youngest team in the nation. This year they get all 5 starters back, almost all their top reserves and added in Villanova transfer Mislav Brzoja. The Red Hawks finished with a similar record of 13-18, but lost All-MAC forward Will Felder and 4-year point guard Quinten Rollins. Adding to all of this is the fact that the Purple Aces beat Miami (OH) 78-65 last year at home. They should have no problem winning by at least 6 on the road. Take Evansville!

4* NCAAB Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on BYU -

The Cougars should have no problem knocking off Arkansas-Little Rock by at least 17 points. BYU has one of the best back-court duo's in the nation in junior Kyle Collinsworth and senior Tyler Haws (2013-14 WCC Player of the Year). The Cougars are also an experienced unit as a whole with 5 seniors returning from a team that made the NCAA Tournament and are excited about the addition of Wake Forest transfer Chase Fischer, who is a 3-point specialists (17 points, 4-8 3-pts in season opener). Arkansas-Little Rock went just 15-17 last year. While they get back 10 of the 12 players who averaged at least 10 minutes/game, they lose their best player in Will Neighbour, who average 16.3 ppg and 7.0 rpg. The Trojans were less than impressive in a 77-64 win over Arkansas Monticello in their opener and will simply not be able to keep pace with the Cougars in this one. Take BYU!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on CS Sacramento +

Sacramento State is showing some solid value here after a blowout loss at Gonzaga (58-104) in their opener, while UC Riverside opened with a 75-52 blowout win at home over Cal San Diego. Just looking at those outcomes might lead you to believe the Highlanders are the play at home laying just 2.5-poings, but the Hornets are the more talented team. Look for Sacramento State senior guards Dylan Garrity and Mikh McKinney to be the two best players on the floor tonight.

The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. UC Riverside on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after a SU win by more than 20 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 86% (18-3) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Sacramento State!

3* on Kentucky -30.5

I expect this Kentucky freight train to keep rolling against an under-sized and over-matched Buffalo team.  While this is an exceptional amount of points to cover, the Wildcats are still a young team and Calipari is not going to call off the dogs early - he's going to get his guys as many reps as possible.  He did just that in Friday night's game against Grand Canyon, which had an almost identical spread, with Kentucky rolling to a 40-point victory.  This really might be an even better matchup for this crew.  Take the Wildcats in a romp.

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Smash on Bowling Green +

The Falcons are showing a lot of value here as a 3.5-point underdog. Drake lost 3 starters from last year and are extremely thin up front. Not to mention they will be without the services of junior guard Gary Ricks Jr, who is their top returning scorer, and backup guard Karl Madison, as both are suspended for the first 3 games. Bowling Green on the other hand has 4 starters coming back and a new sense of energy and excitement around the program with the addition of head coach Chris Jans, who was a top assistant under Gregg Marshall at Wichita State. I'll gladly take the points, but I'm expecting the Falcons to win this one outright. Take Bowling Green!

5* NCAAB Opening Night Game of the Year on Rice +

This is a big time fade of Oregon State. The Beavers went a respectable 16-16 (8-10 Pac-12), but with all five starters gone, including their star Roberto Nelson (20.7 ppg) this team is going to struggle. Their leading returning scorer is sophomore Langston-Morris Walker, who averaged a mere 4.0 ppg. Rice went a miserable 7-23 last year, but I'm expecting a big turnaround for the Owls under new head coach Mike Rhoades, who was one of Shaka Smart's top assistants at VCU. Rice at least has some experience to fall back on with 3 starters and a lot is expected out of freshman Bishop Mercy, who is a perfect fit for Rhoades system. I believe there's a good chance the Owls win this game outright. Take Rice!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Valparaiso -

Valparaiso will be out for revenge against East Tennessee State tonight, as the Crusaders lost 62-73 on the road to the Bucs. Valparaiso was in a major rebuilding phase last year, as they had three freshmen starters. One of those was All-Horizon forward Alec Peters, who led all Horizon freshmen in every category expect steals and assists. Peters is one of 4 starters back on a Crusaders team that should take a big step forward in the 4th year under head coach Bryce Drew. As for East Tennessee State, they return three starters, but lost their two big men inside. Having to rely on the outside shot on the road is bad recipe for success. Look for the Crusaders to win here by double-digits easily. Take Valparaiso!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Citadel +

The Citadel is showing great value here in the opening round of the All Military Classic at Christl Arena in West Point. These two military schools are very familiar with one another, having played early in the season each of the last 3 years. VMI won last year's meeting 82-71 on their home floor, but the Citadel won 84-76 at home in 2012. This time the game will be played on a neutral setting and I like the Bulldogs chances of revenge. VMI lost two of their best players from last year in starting center D.J. Covington (20.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg) and guard Rodney Glasgow (18.9 ppg, 5.8 apg), while the Bulldogs return 4 of their 5 starters. Take the Citadel!