Sports Picks & Predictions

4* Pac-10 *Power Play* on Washington State -3
Big bounce back spot for Washington State following a terrible performance at Oregon and big letdown spot for Oregon State after an upset win over Washington. The Cougars won the season's first meeting by 14 points, and today's situation provides them with an excellent opportunity to take care of business again.

Plays against home teams off a home win over a conference rival if they are matched up against an opponent off a road loss by 20 points or more, are an impressive 104-61 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this play against system are losing by an average of 7.8 points.

Recently, the Cougars have been a terrific team to back when coming off a SU or ATS defeat. In fact, they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Cougars are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.

The Beavers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Pac-10. We'll lay the points.

4* Big 12 Blowout Game of the Week on Missouri -10
Off consecutive losses on the road, Mizzou will be out for blood when it steps back on its home floor this evening. The Tigers are 13-0 on their home court this season, and they'll show no mercy to a Colorado squad that took them down in Boulder last month.

Mizzou has had no problem at home against the Buffs. In fact, the Tigers are 12-1 at home in this series since 1998, winning these games by an average score of 83-68. Mizzou has wins of 45 and 29 points in Colorado's last 2 visits.

Without a doubt, the time to back Missouri is when it is coming off a narrow defeat. In fact, the Tigers are a spotless 7-0 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 87.3 to 60.1. The Tigers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points, and I expect their press to be way too much for the Buffs to handle this time around.

5* SEC Game of the Year on Vanderbilt -12
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further motivated by a loss at S. Carolina last month, expect the Commodores to run the Gamecocks off the floor today.

Vandy has been dominant on its home floor this season, where it is 11-1 with an average winning margin of 16.9 points. The numbers also suggest this is a great spot to back the 'Dores. In fact, Vandy is a dominant 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games off a cover in a game in which it lost straight up as an underdog. The numbers also suggest this is a poor spot for S.C., which is just 1-8 ATS off any conference win the last 2 seasons.

With tons of motivation in this spot, expect this superior Vandy squad to roll.

4* Pac-10 Game of the Week on Oregon +3.5
Off a big upset win over rival Washington, expect the Cougars to endure a letdown on the road tonight. Oregon finally steps back on its home floor after 3 straight on the road, and it will be hungry to avenge a 14-point loss at Washington State last month. That shouldn't be much of a problem at home, where Oregon has won 11 of the last 13 in this series by an average score of 72 to 61. Oregon has also won 3 of the last 4 overall.

The Cougars are a completely different team on the road, where they have dropped 4 of their last 5. And their lone win during this stretch came by just 3 points.

This matchup has been dominated by the home team in terms of the point spread. In fact, the home squad is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Also, the Cougars are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Oregon.

3* NCAAB Under the Radar Upset on Samford +5.5
This Davidson team isn't anywhere near as good as the one that Stephen Curry played on a couple seasons back. Yet, it continues to get that kind of respect from odds makers. Consider that Davidson is even 0-8 ATS, after 15+ games, versus poor teams outscored by their opponents by 4+ points per game since Curry left. The Wildcats are only defeating these teams by an average of 0.4 points.

Davidson is 2-8 ATS this season in road games, losing them by an average score of 71.8 to 65.7. The Wildcats are also just 1-9 ATS as a road favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons, only winning these games by an average of 0.1 points.

Samford has struggled, but I love the way it responded to beat Elon after getting absolutely pounded by Wofford. Following that win, the Bulldogs were embarrassed by UNC Greensboro, which should provide them with plenty of motivation tonight. Plus, Samford feels like it owes the Wildcats, having lost 3 in a row in the series.

The Wildcats are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or fewer. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. Look for the Bulldogs to pull off the upset.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Kansas State -7
Letdown spot for Nebraska after a big win over Texas A&M, especially away from home where the Huskers are 0-3 in true road games. Bounce back spot for K-State, meanwhile, after getting brutally embarrassed by Kansas.

K-State, which was the preseason pick of the Big 12 coaches to win the league, has not played up to expectations, but I fully expect it to look like a league champ in this motivated spot tonight. Plus, it never hurts to be at home, where the Wildcats have been dominant in posting an 11-1 record.

Nebraska has long struggled on the road. In fact, the Huskers are a poor 16-31 ATS in all lined games away from home under coach Sadler. They have lost these contests by an average of 8.6 points. The Huskers are also just 2-11 in their last 13 visits to K-State, where they have lost by an average score of 72 to 60.

The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take K-State tonight.

5* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois -8
This was already a great spot for Illinois and it just got even better. Due to a massive winter storm, Penn State's charter plane was diverted to Evansville, Indiana. Now the team will have to travel the rest of the way by bus. It's easy to lose focus when dealing with such changes in schedule.

Illinois will be the more focuses team tonight regardless. The Illini have dropped back-to-back games, including a really bad loss to lowly Indiana. Plus, an earlier season loss at Penn State will add extra fuel to the fire.

Going to the numbers we find that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have lost 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, are 47-17 ATS the last 5 seasons, 25-6 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 10.3 points. Plus, Illinois is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

It also can't be ignored that Penn State is 0-7 ATS after a game in which it and its opponent combined for 110 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Illinois has home wins over North Carolina, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan State by 8 or more. Lay the points.

4* SEC Game of the Week on Mississippi +7
After getting their butts kicked by Tennessee, the Rebels will have no problem getting up for tonight's showdown with Kentucky. They have an excellent opportunity to cover this number against a Wildcats squad that is playing a 6-man rotation. Kentucky has looked very fatigued late in recent games, and that fatigue could get them beat down the stretch tonight.

Mississippi's loss to Tennessee is important to bring up because the Rebs are 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Kennedy after a loss of 15 points or more. Ole Miss is bouncing back to win in this situation by an average score of 73.7 to 67.4.

In addition, the Rebels have had no trouble getting up for high-caliber opponents. In fact, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season versus very good teams that are outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. The Rebs are defeating these teams by an average score of 76.3 to 71.8. Take the points.

3* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Texas A&M +1.5
As if a date with rival Texas isn't motivation enough, especially after losing the season's first meeting badly, entering off a poor performance against Nebraska assures us the Aggies will be very hungry tonight.

A&M enjoys one of the best home court advantages in the nation. The Aggies are 12-0 at home this season, and they have had no problem at home against Texas. A&M has won 6 straight at home in this series, and the last 4 wins have all come by 15 points or more. In fact, the Longhorns are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 meetings at Texas A&M.

Texas may have won the season's first meeting, but Texas A&M is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when out to avenge a same season loss. It is winning these contests by an average score of 74.7 to 65.3.

A&M was held to just 48 points in its loss at Nebraska Saturday. This is significant because the Aggies are a perfect 8-0 ATS after being held to 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons. They are bouncing back to win by an average score of 72.1 to 65.3 in this situation.

Lastly, A&M is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams allowing 64 points or less per game over the last 2 seasons. The Aggies are defeating these teams by an average score of 69.9 to 56.3. Take A&M at home.

4* Big Ten *BEST BET* on Iowa +7
This is a big letdown spot for Michigan following an upset win over rival Michigan State. Consider that plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more, provided they are up against an opponent off a road loss, are 27-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Iowa has struggled on the road, but it will be ready to go following a disappointing performance at Penn State in its last game.

This has been a pretty tight matchup in recent years, even when Michigan has had more talent. And this year's Hawkeyes are far better offensively than we have seen the last few years. Iowa has won or lost by 7 points or less in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Under Beilein, Michigan is just 1-8 ATS in home games following losses in 4 of their last 5 games. In other words, the Wolverines have not been a good team to back when they are losing. The Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss, and the Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Take Iowa and the points.

4* Never Lost *Upset Special* on Montana State +2
Montana may have taken the Bobcats down last Saturday, but I expect a different story on the road this week. Montana State is a perfect 8-0 at home this season, where it is winning by an average of 15.5 points. It returns 4 starters from a team that took the Grizzlies down at home last season.

Under coach Huse, Montana State is a perfect 8-0 ATS all-time in home games versus good defensive teams holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting from the field. The Bobcats are handling these squads by an average of 9.5 points. This says a lot about how tough the Cats are on their home floor.

It is also worth noting that the Bobcats are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Plus, the Grizzlies are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Expect the Bobcats to have their revenge Saturday.

5* Never Lost Big Sky Game of the Year on Weber State +1
Weber State took an embarrassing 19-point loss to this Northern Colorado team in its last game, but it will have its revenge Saturday. The Wildcats have won 4 straight at home in this series, and I fully expect this trend to continue.

Weber State is 7-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average score of 75.9 to 65.3. The Wildcats are also a perfect 6-0 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win these games by an average score of 76.3 to 65.6.

That

4* Big Ten Game of the Week (CBS) on Purdue -9
Off an embarrassing performance against Ohio State, expect Purdue to be out for blood as it looks to avenge an earlier loss to Minnesota. The Boilermakers have had little trouble winning at home, where they are 11-0 this season and winning by an average of 21.8 points.

I have no problem laying points with Purdue. After all, the Boilermakers are 11-4 ATS as a favorite this season, winning these games by an average of 12.7 points. The Boilermakers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, under coach Painter, they are 13-4 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival.

We certainly need to take notice when Minnesota is this big of a dog. That

5* Pac-10 Game of the Month on Stanford -7.5
Motivated by 3 straight defeats, expect the Cardinal to mop the floor with Oregon tonight. Stanford has had little trouble with the Ducks, winning 22 of the last 27 meetings dating back to 1998. During this span, Stanford is a perfect 13-0 at home in the series. Favored by an average of 8.8 points in these 13 games, Stanford has won by an average score of 82 to 64.

In addition, Stanford is an impressive 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games after 2 or more consecutive losses. It is winning by an average of 10.0 points in these games. The Cardinal are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

Oregon's road struggles are nothing new at just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games. The Ducks are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the points with this highly motivated Stanford squad on its home floor tonight.

3* National TV *CASH COW* (ESPN) on Michigan State -10.5
It's been a disappointing start to the season for Michigan State after yet another deep run in the Big Dance. With that being said, I love State's chances of getting things turned around tonight. Motivated by back-to-back losses, and with coach Izzo sending a message with the suspension of Korie Lucious, expect the Spartans to show up in a big way.

Sparty has had no problem handling in-state rival Michigan with 18 wins in the last 21 meetings dating back to 1998. During this span, Michigan State is a perfect 11-0 at home in the series where it is winning by an average score of 77 to 58.

Michigan is 0-3 on the road in Big Ten play with losses to Wisconsin, Indiana and Northwestern by 16, 19 and 14 points respectively. The Spartans already have wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern, giving us no reason to believe Michigan State can't cruise to a comfortable win this evening.

Sparty is an impressive 36-16 ATS in its last 52 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, winning these games by an average score of 73.3 to 60.6. Lay the points.

4* Big 12 *BEST BET* on Iowa State -11
Off back-to-back losses on the road, including an absolute pounding at Mizzou, the Cyclones will be ready to take out their frustrations on this lowly Texas Tech squad this evening.

The Red Raiders are 0-7 when playing away from home this season, losing these games by an average of 16.4 points. The Cyclones, meanwhile, are 11-2 at home, where they are winning by an average of 21.2 points.

Texas Tech is coming off a win over Nebraska, but this isn't a team that has fared well with momentum. In fact, Tech is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games off a close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, losing by an average score of 80.1 to 62.8 in this situation.

The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while the Red Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the Cyclones.

3* MVC Massacre on Indiana State -7
This game is all about revenge for the Sycamores, which lost at Evansville earlier this month. Playing at home should bring a different fortune for Indiana State. They are 8-0 in their home building this season where they are winning by an average of 15.8 points.

Indiana State will draw added motivation from a double-digit loss at Wichita State last game. Keep in mind that ISU is 12-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

The Sycamores are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Purple Aces are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Lay the points.

5* MAC Game of the Year on Ohio -10.5
Ohio is yet to play to expectations this season but, motivated by 3 straight upset defeats, I expect it to dominate this evening.

Eastern Mich has struggled away from home this season, where it is just 1-6 in true road games. These 6 losses have come by an average of 15.3 points. It is also worth noting that the Eagles have dropped 5 of their last 6 at Ohio.

The time to fade E. Mich is now, as the Eagles are 0-6 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Plus, Ohio is an impressive 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after 3 or more consecutive losses. Expect this motivated Bobcats squad to roll tonight. Lay the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* Blowout on Clemson -7
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, the Clemson Tigers will be ready to take care of business when they step back on their home floor tonight. The Tigers have been dominant at home this season, going 10-1 and winning by an average of 14.8 points. Also, an upset loss to NC State in last year's ACC tourney will add even more fuel to the fire for Clemson this evening.

Clemson is an impressive 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, winning these contests by an average score of 76.9 to 63.3. It is also worth noting that the Tigers are on a 51-31 ATS run following 2 or more consecutive losses.

NC State is 0-4 in true road games this season, losing these games by an average of 16.8 points. Take Clemson.

3* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on K-State -5
This Kansas State team entered the season with high expectations. So far it has fallen short of those expectations. A big win tonight, however, could go a long way toward turning things around. Off back-to-back losses on the road, the Wildcats return home where I expect them to handle the Bears.

Consider that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have lost 4 of their last 5 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%), are 32-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 6.3 points and have won by an average of 10.9.

It is also worth noting that the Wildcats are 14-4-2 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less. In addition, the Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less points. Lay the points with K-State.

3* NCAAB Under the Radar SMASH on Northeastern -5.5
Northeastern has lost its last 9 games, but I love its chances at home tonight against a William & Mary squad that has been poor on the road. The Tribe are 1-8 on the road this season, where they are losing by 9.9 points on average.

The Tribe have also struggled immensely at Northeastern, where they have lost 3 in a row SU and ATS by 16, 9 and 15 points.

In addition, plays against any team (William & Mary) off a cover in a game it lost straight up as an underdog, against an opponent off 3 or more consecutive road losses, are 42-15 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The Huskies see this game as their first conference win, and I expect them to get it done while covering the number in the process.

4* NCAAB Letdown Game of the Week on Portland +1
This is a big time letdown spot for Santa Clara after such an emotional upset win over Gonzaga. Portland, meanwhile, which hasn't lost back-to-back game all season, will be very focused on the task at hand following an upset loss to San Francisco. The Pilots are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss while the Broncos are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win.

Santa Clara cannot be trusted on its home floor laying any amount of points. The Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite and 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less. The Broncos really can't be trusted in the small chalk period as they are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points.

Under coach Keating, Santa Clara is 1-9 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Lastly, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound Portland.

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Baylor -6
Following back-to-back disappointing performances against Iowa State and Kansas, expect Baylor to be ready to go today. Expect the Bears to take care of business against an Oklahoma State team that has lost its last 3 road games by an average of 16.0 points.

This series has been dominated by the home team and the favorite. The home team and favorite are both 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Under coach Drew, Baylor is 12-4 ATS off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a conference rival. It is also 34-16 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses under his watch.

The Cowboys have been a poor road investment when catching points, considering they are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog and 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Bet the Bears.

4* NCAAB Under the Radar Rout on Georgia State -4
Off 3 straight losses, all on the road to worthy opponents, expect Georgia State to bounce back strong at home this afternoon. As if getting back in the win column isn't enough motivation, a 2-point loss at Delaware last season will certainly have the Panthers fired up. Under coach Barnes, Georgia State is an impressive 12-4 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses.

Delaware has been a terrible investment any time it is coming off a win. In fact, the Blue Hens are 6-21-3 ATS in their last 30 games following a win. They are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 if they are coming off a conference victory. It also can't go unmentioned that Delaware is a poor 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games as a road underdog. Conversely, the Panthers are a respectable 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Lay the points.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Santa Clara +9
The Broncos always get up for Gonzaga on their home floor, but they'll be even hungrier tonight after getting embarrassed at Saint Mary's. The Broncos have played the Bulldogs to within 8 points in 6 of the last 7 meetings at Santa Clara. It is also worth noting that the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while the Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Santa Clara is also 6-0 ATS following a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival over the last 3 seasons, only losing by an average of 1.9 points in this situation.

Lastly, the Broncos have never lost ATS under coach Keating in home games versus teams outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game 15 or more games into the season. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus these teams, only losing to them by 2.3 points on average. All these trends combine to form a powerful 26-0 ATS angle in support of our side. Take Santa Clara.

3* Under the Radar *Underdog Shocker* on Youngstown State +7
Off a big upset win over Butler, Wright State will be feeling a little too satisfied with itself when it hits the road tonight. Youngstown State is a better team than its record might lead you to believe, and it has made a habit out of playing the Raiders tough at home. In fact, Youngstown has either won or lost by 7 or fewer points in 6 straight home games against Wright State dating back to 2005.

The Raiders have not been a strong road investment. They are just 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 road games, 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Wright State is also is 0-6 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots per game on the season over the last 2 seasons and 0-7 ATS in road games after 3 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

The Penguins are an impressive 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and the home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. This is a great spot for Youngstown State. They'll have an excellent opportunity to win this one outright.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* Blowout on Purdue -13
Motivated by back-to-back losses to Minnesota and West Virginia on the road, expect the Boilermakers to run up the score on Penn State in their return home tonight.

Purdue is 9-0 at home this season where it is winning by an average of 25.4 points. Purdue defeated the Nittany Lions by 15 at Penn State on Jan. 5 - its 4th win in the last 5 meetings by 14 or more points. The Boilermakers posted a 20-point home win over Penn State last season.

Penn State has defeated Michigan State and Illinois and has played Ohio State tough, but all that means is it's ripe for a beating against a team it has struggled against. Purdue has really been able to take the Nittany Lions out of what they like to do offensively while making life very difficult for Talor Battle.

The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or more points. The Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings at Purdue. With a line like this, following Penn State's recent success, there's no question which side odds makers want the public on. We won't bite. Lay the points.

4* Tuesday NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on Nebraska -4
Off back-to-back defeats on the road, the Huskers will be out for blood when they step back on their home floor tonight. As if consecutive defeats aren't enough motivation, getting swept by Colorado is the season series last year will definitely fuel the fire.

Nebraska is a dominant 12-0 at home this season where it is winning by 19.5 ppg. Colorado, meanwhile, is just 3-5 when playing away from home. Also, Nebraska has won 10 of its last 13 at home against the Buffs by an average score of 70 to 63. This is a series that has been dominated by the home team in terms of the point spread. In fact, the home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Colorado is 22-40 ATS in its last 62 road games versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or less points per game. The Buffs are losing by an average score of 76.2 to 64.0 in this situation. Also, Nebraska is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 home games following a loss by 6 points or less. The Huskers are bouncing back to win by an average score of 75.4 to 65.3 in this situation. Lay the points.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Fresno State -4.5
After suffering back-to-back defeats, including a bad loss at home against Utah State last game, the Bulldogs will be out for blood tonight. The fact that they have dropped 5 in a row to Idaho will provide even more motivation.

It must be noted that plays on a favorite after a game where it made 28% or less of its shots, are an impressive 74-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams are winning by an average of 8.7 points in this situation.

The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Bet the Bulldogs.

3* NCAAB Top 5 Tango (ESPN) on Pitt -5
Expect Pitt to hand Syracuse its first loss of the season this evening. The Panthers have dominated this series in recent years, winning 7 of the last 8 meetings and 4 in a row. Each of the last 4 wins have come by 5 or more points.

The Panthers have also been extremely dominant at Petersen Events Center, where they are 50-1 since Feb. 2008. The Panthers have won 19 in a row at Petersen by an average of 19.9 points. Pitt has also won 8 straight at home against teams ranked in the top five of the AP poll.

It is also to our benefit that Syracuse leading scorer Kris Joseph is banged up. He left Saturday's game after the back of his head was slammed on the floor on a drive to the basket. He is listed as questionable, but I like the Panthers in this spot regardless if he plays. Lay the points.

4* Saturday NCAAB *BEST BET* on NC State +8
This is a huge letdown spot for FSU after a big upset win over Duke. Plus, this is a nice bounce back spot for NC State following an upset loss to Boston College.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 points or more against an opponent coming off a road loss, are 25-6 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss and 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. The Seminoles, meanwhile, are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

The Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Florida St. and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

3* Pac-10 Power Play on Stanford +7.5
Washington has won 6 in a row against the Cardinal, including 3 double-digit victories last season. In other words, Stanford won't be lacking any motivation when it takes the floor tonight.

Stanford is an unbeaten 7-0 at Maples Pavilion this season, where it is holding opponents to 53.7 points by playing some of the best defense in the Pac-10. Washington has dropped 3 of its last 5 when playing away from home and has only defeated Stanford on the road twice in the last 17 years.

The Cardinal will be further motivated by a 10-point loss at Arizona in their last game. Consider that Stanford is 9-2 ATS since Dawkins took over following a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. It is bouncing back to win by an average score of 70.0 to 65.0 in this situation. Take the points.

3* NCAAB Super System SMASH on Rhode Island +10
Off back-to-back embarrassing defeats, including a 72-45 loss to Xavier last game, Rhode Island will have plenty of motivation on its side tonight. In fact, plays on underdogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss by 15 or more points at home, are an impressive 72-35 ATS since 1997. In addition, plays against favorites of 10 or more points coming off a win against a conference rival and taking on an opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more at home, are 69-32 ATS since 1997. This system is already 2-0 ATS this season.

The Rams have taken the Spiders down to the wire each of the last 2 seasons, losing by just 3 points in 2009 and 2 in 2010. In fact, Richmond hasn't defeated Rhode Island by more than 10 points in any of the last 10 meetings. 6 of those games have been decided by 3 points or less. Consider that the Spiders are just 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take Rhode Island.

4* NCAAB Under The Radar Blowout on TCU -6
Big letdown spot for Wyoming after a 1-point upset win over New Mexico. Plus, huge bounce back spot for TCU after 4 straight defeats, including an absolute pounding at UNLV.

Wyoming is 0-6 when playing away from this season, losing these games by 11.5 points on average. Meanwhile, TCU is 7-2 on its home floor, where it is winning by 12.9 points on average.

The Cowboys are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Plus, TCU has won 4 straight at home in this series by an average of 12.5 points. Lay the number.

4* Big 12 Blowout Game of the Week on Missouri -11.5
As if an upset loss at Colorado isn't enough motivation, an upset loss to the Huskers in last season's Big 12 tourney will certainly fuel the fire. Prior to that defeat, Mizzou had defeated Nebraska 3 straight times by an average of 18.3 points. I expect a similar outcome tonight.

Nebraska is not as good as its record might lead you to believe. The Huskers have benefited from a very soft schedule and are yet to play a true road game. Unfortunately for the Huskers, their first true road game of the season comes against a highly motivated Mizzou squad.

Perhaps no team in the country has bounced back better than the Tigers in recent years. Consider that Mizzou is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, exploding to win by an average score of 90.7 to 63.3 in this situation. The Tigers are also an unbeaten 6-0 ATS off an upset loss to a conference rival over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average score of 86.2 to 65.2 in this spot. Take the Tigers.

4* Under the Radar Blowout on Kent State -8.5
Off 3 straight defeats, Kent State will be out for blood when it takes the floor tonight. Adding to this motivation is the fact that Bowling Green came in an upset the Golden Flashes as an 11-point dog last season. You can bet Kent hasn't forgotten.

Bowling Green is just 2-7 away from home this season where it is averaging just 58.8 ppg. That's just not going to get it done. In fact, Kent is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games, 15+ games into the season, versus poor offensive teams scoring 64 or fewer points per game. The Flashes are winning these contests by 14.2 points on average. In addition, Kent is a deadly 8-1 at home this season. Lay the points.

5* Big Ten Game of the Month (ESPN) on Michigan State -3.5
Motivated by an upset loss at Penn State, I completely expect the Spartans to bounce back strong on their home floor tonight. In fact, Sparty is 9-2 ATS when coming off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 points or more under coach Tom Izzo. State is winning by an average score of 75.4 to 59.1 in this situation.

Michigan State has won 5 straight at home in this series with those wins all coming by at least 7 points. As a result, the Spartans are 5-0 ATS in those games. It is also worth noting that the home team has won the last 10 meetings.

Sparty has a nice advantage from beyond the arc in this one. Wisconsin has shot the ball poorly from 3 away from home this season (27.6%) and it has not defended the 3 well away from Madison (38.1%). Michigan State is knocking them down at a 38.8% clip at home. Consider that Wiscy is 0-6 ATS when playing away from home versus good 3 point shooting teams making 37% or more of their 3-point attempts since the beginning of last season. The Badgers are losing to these teams by 6.6 points on average. Take Michigan State.

3* Monday Night NCAAB SMASH on Tennessee Martin +11
Austin Peay hasn't won by more than 9 points at Tennessee Martin in its last 3 tries or 8 of its last 9. The Governors come in riding high with 5 straight wins, including an upset win over Murray State in their last game. It will be hard for them to get up for this game following that big win.

Not getting up for lesser opponents has certainly become a trend. In fact, the Governors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games, 15 or more games into the season, against opponents that are getting outscored by an average of 8+ points per game. They are only defeating these teams by an average score of 76.5 to 76.0.

The Skyhawks, meanwhile, could not be more motivated as they look to notch their first Ohio Valley victory. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the points.

3* NCAAB *Marquee Matchup* (ESPN) on Texas -8
UConn lost by 15 to a more balanced Pitt team, and I see the same problems for the Huskies when they take on a balanced Texas squad today. The Huskies are too reliant one 1 player to score (Walker), and that will really hurt them against strong defensive teams.

Plus, this Texas team has not forgotten the 14-point loss it was handed by UConn a season ago. That defeat will serve as added motivation.

Texas is 9-0 at home this season and it has won 27 straight non-conference home games. The Longhorns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. This one stays close for a while but Texas should pull away in the 2nd half. Take Texas.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Illinois State +8.5
Off 3 straight defeats, with the last 2 coming on the road, Illinois State will be out for blood as it steps back on its home floor tonight.

The Shockers come in riding high with 7 straight wins, and I expect them to look right past a team they defeated twice last season (once at home and once in MVC tourney), especially since a big showdown with Missouri State awaits. That, however, would not be wise considering Illinois State has won its last 4 home meetings in this series convincingly. As a result, the Shockers are 0-4 ATS in those games.

In general, this matchup has been dominated by the home team, which is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Redbirds may come up short this time around, but I fully expect them to keep the score within this generous number.

4* Pac-10 Game of the Week on Washington State -12
Washington State is 5-1 at home this season, where it is winning by 23.8 ppg. The problem is it hasn't played a home game since Dec. 10. Happy to be back home, and hungry to end a 3-game skid, expect WSU to win big tonight.

Off 3 straight wins, odds makers are begging for action on Oregon State with this line. We won't bite. The Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

The Beavers are just 1-3 in true road games this season. They were slaughtered by 26 points at Colorado to a team that doesn't defend nearly as well as the Cougars. Lay the points tonight.

4* NCAAB Blowout on Richmond -13
After suffering a 1-point home loss to Bucknell, the Richmond Spiders will be out for blood tonight. In fact, Richmond is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a home loss over the last 3 seasons.

As if that isn't enough motivation, last season's 12-point upset loss at home to Charlotte should fuel the fire. And it just so happens that this is a very tough spot for Charlotte being its third straight road contest. Charlotte has been playing some solid ball lately, but we can't ignore the fact that it is 0-8 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of its last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.

The 49ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog and 8-27 ATS in their last 35 vs. the Atlantic 10. The Spiders are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or more points and 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 vs. the Atlantic 10. Lay the points.

4* 100% Perfect NCAAB Blowout on Northern Iowa -11.5
Off back-to-back close losses to Missouri St. and S. Illinois, the Panthers will be ready to bounce back strong at home tonight. As if those losses aren't enough motivation, a 1-point loss to the Purple Aces in the last meeting will fuel the fire.

N. Iowa defeated Evansville 65-46 at home last season. The Aces have had all kinds of trouble away from home. In fact, they are just 1-4 in true road games this season and were crushed by 34 points at Wichita State in their last road game. The Panthers are 6-1 at home this season where they are winning by an average score of 67 to 51.6.

The Panthers defended the 3-point line remarkably while holding the aces to just 46 points in last season's home win. Rest assured, this strong UNI defense will get the job done again tonight. In fact, the Panthers are 11-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons versus good 3 point shooting teams making 37% or more of their attempts. Lay the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on William & Mary -2
After 3 straight road games and 3 straight losses, I fully expect William & Mary to make some noise in its return home. As if getting back in the win column isn't enough motivation, a 1-point home loss to UNC Wilmington last season will certainly add fuel to the fire.

The Seahawks are coming off a big win over Toledo, so now is the perfect time to go against them. That's because the Seahawks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win of more than 20 points. They are also 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less points.

UNCW has lost 4 of 5 true road games while W&M has won 4 of its 5 home games. Lay the small number with the Tribe at home tonight.

3* Sunday NCAAB *BEST BET* on Michigan -7
Huge bounce back spot for Michigan after getting embarrassed by Purdue in its Big Ten opener.

The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. It is also worth noting that Beilein's teams are an impressive 37-14 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. Michigan is 11-3 ATS off a home loss to a conference rival under Beilein.

The Wolverines have won 9 of their last 11 at home against Penn State by an average score of 72-62. Take Michigan.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Nevada -4
Off back-to-back losses on the road, Nevada will be hungry to get back in the win column on its home floor tonight. I love their chances, when you consider that they have won 10 straight at home over Hawaii by an average score of 73 to 63 since 2001. We also can't ignore the fact that the Warriors are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.

Hawaii has the much better record and has covered the spread in its last 6 lined games. With this in mind, the books are looking for as much action on Hawaii as possible with this line. We won't bite. Lay the points with Nevada.

4* Never Lost NCAAB *BEST BET* on UNC Wilmington -9.5
Off back-to-back defeats, including a major wake up call loss to Campbell, the Seahawks will be ready to take out their frustration on Toledo tonight.

This is a terrible spot for Toledo, which is 0-5 when playing away from home this season. Consider that the Rockets are 4-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 68.7 to 51.8. Toledo is also 4-13 ATS in its last 17 as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points, losing by an average score of 75.6 to 59.4 in this situation. In addition, the Rockets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 when playing with 7 or more days rest.

I have extreme confidence that Coach Buzz Peterson will have his boys ready to go following such an anemic offensive effort. That's because Peterson's teams are a perfect 10-0 ATS all-time following an embarrassing road loss in which they scored less than 60 points. Lay the points.

3* 100% Perfect Horizon League Hard Hitter on Wright State -8.5
Wright State is a perfect 6-0 at home this season, where it is winning by 14.8 ppg, and it will hold nothing back tonight as it looks to notch its first conference win.

When Wright State is dictating the tempo - playing halfcourt hoops - it is normally covering the number. In fact, the Raiders are a perfect 7-0 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less in 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 62.0 to 48.9 in this situation.

Further motivated by a loss at Charlotte in their last game, expect the Raiders to return home and take care of business by a double-digit margin tonight.

3* Wednesday NCAAB Blowout on Utah State -19.5
Hawaii has not fared well when making the trip inland to face Utah State. In fact, Hawaii lost by 44 points in its last visit last January.

The numbers are certainly in our favor here when you consider how many unbeaten trends line up on the Aggies. Utah State is 7-0 ATS after game where it allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less over the last 3 seasons, 8-0 ATS in home games after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons and 7-0 ATS in home games after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last 2 seasons. In addition, the Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or more points. We'll bet Utah State behind this 32-0 ATS angle tonight.

3* NCAAB Top 25 Tango on Wisconsin -8
Wisconsin is 9-0 in conference home openers under coach Bo Ryan, and he'll make sure his boys are ready to go as they look to snap a 3-game skid against to Minnesota.

Similar to last night's UConn/Pitt matchup, odds makers want as much action on the higher ranked team as possible as they are expecting Wiscy to take care of business. Consider that the Golden Gophers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, Wiscy is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games versus very good teams that are outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game since the beginning of last season. The Badgers are defeating these teams by an average of 16.5 points. Lay the points.

3* NCAAB *Marquee Matchup* (ESPN2) on Pittsburgh -7
UConn has exceeded expectations early. I really believe it comes back down to earth at some point as it is far too reliant on 1 player (Walker). Pitt is an outstanding defensive team with the ability to slow down Walker. Offensively, the Panthers are very balanced.

Pitt has won the last 3 meetings in this series with all 3 of those wins coming by at least 8 points. The last 2 wins have come by 10 points each.

With a line like this, you know odds makers want as much action on the higher ranked Huskies as possible. We're not about to bite, however. Consider that the Panthers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. This is a statement game for Pitt. Lay the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on Michigan State -5
This is a tough spot for Texas, which is coming off a thrilling win at N. Carolina. After such an emotional victory, it will be tough for the Longhorns to bring the same level of energy on the road again tonight. That will be a major problem against this more experienced Michigan State team.

The Spartans also have a huge motivational edge as they look to avenge a loss at Texas last season. It is not good practice to go against Sparty at home, considering they have won 52 straight at home in non-conference play.

The Longhorns are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. They are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 road games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. It is also worth noting that the Spartans are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less. Lay the points.

3* NCAAB SMASH (ESPNU) on Stanford +9.5
Stanford will be out for blood tonight after such an embarrassing loss at Butler. Plus, it will draw added motivation from a 1-point loss to Oklahoma State last season.

Stanford has suffered 5 straight ATS defeats while Oklahoma State has won 5 in a row ATS. This has forced odds makers to inflate the line, which has created some nice line value tonight.

The Cardinal are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Back Stanford in this highly motivated spot.

3* 100% Perfect NCAAB Blowout on Butler -9
We'll fade Stanford here in its first true road game of the season against the defending national runner-ups. First off, the Cardinal are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

It is also certainly worth noting that the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. With Matt Howard, Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored back, the Bulldogs have more talent on the floor than Stanford. Expect these three to help Butler pull away to a comfortable win in the second half. Lay the points.

3* NCAAB Blowout on UNLV -16.5
After suffering its first loss of the season at Louisville, expect the Runnin' Rebs to bounce back strong at home tonight. UC Santa Barbara has not played since Dec. 4, so I expect the Gauchos to be showing plenty of rust against this motivated UNLV squad.

UCSB is just 15-32 ATS in its last 47 games versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game. In addition, the Gauchos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or more points.

UNLV has failed to cover a few spreads recently, but that helps us get a better number tonight. Plus, UNLV is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread. Lay the points.

4* NCAAB Blowout on Pacific -6
The last time Santa Clara visited Pacific (Nov. 2009), it was handed an 84-57 beatdown. I expect another double-digit win for the Tigers on their home floor tonight.

Pacific finds itself in a good spot following a blowout win over Stanislaus State. In fact, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a non-conference game, off a home win scoring 85 or more points, are 270-174 ATS since 1997, 103-63 ATS the last 5 seasons and 57-31 ATS the last 3. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by 8.6 points on average.

In addition, Pacific is a perfect 7-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover in at least 2 of its last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are winning by 11.5 points on average in this situation.

Considering how poorly the Broncos have performed on the defensive end in road games (77.2 points allowed), I expect the Tigers to run up the score tonight. Lay the points.

5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Arizona +2.5
This game is all about revenge for the Wildcats. Arizona returns 4 starters from a team that was brutally embarrassed by BYU to the tune of 99-69 last season. That loss will be on Zona's mind when it takes the floor today, and it will give the Cats the motivational edge to get this "W".

BYU may be 9-0 and ranked in the Top 25, but it is yet to see a team even remotely as talented as this Wildcat club. That puts the Cougars at a disadvantage considering Arizona has had the benefit of playing top notch Kansas.

Arizona is an impressive 7-1 ATS in all lined games this season. It is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.

Lastly, BYU is a lousy 8-20 ATS in its last 28 when playing away from home (game at Salt Lake City) after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more. It is losing these games by an average score of 72.6 to 70.8. Take Arizona.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Santa Clara +3.5
This experienced Santa Clara team has not forgotten last season's loss to San Jose State, and I fully expect it to return the favor here.

Winning at SJSU is nothing new for the Broncos. In fact, they have won their last 5 on the road in this series dating back to 2000. The road team has had a strong handle on this matchup from a point spread perspective, going 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. It is also worth noting that Santa Clara is 6-0 ATS in road games after losing 3 of its last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the points in this one.

3* 100% Perfect NCAAB Wednesday Night Blowout on Wright State -7
Wright State is a completely different team on its home floor where it is 3-0 this season. Wright State enters this contest off 4 straight losses, but all 4 of those games have been away from home. Motivated by those defeats, it will be ready to go in its return to the Nutter Center.

This line is significant. Odds makers definitely want bettors on 5-1 Air Force, but taking the bait would be a big mistake. Consider that Wright State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 68.9 to 47.8 in this situation. In addition, the Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games following three or more consecutive road games.

The Falcons are a poor 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Take Wright State tonight.

3* Never Lost NCAAB Tuesday Night Blowout on Utah State -12.5
As if a blowout loss to Georgetown isn't enough to fuel the fire, Utah State will be out to avenge last season's loss at Long Beach State. That shouldn't be a problem at home, where the Aggies have won 6 in a row over Long Beach by an average score of 77.0 to 57.0.

In addition, the Aggies have never lost under coach Morrill following an embarrassing road loss where they were held to less than 60 points. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in this situation, bouncing back to win by an average score of 80.0 to 61.9. Lay the points.

3* National Title Rematch (ESPN) on Duke -14
Butler is not the same team without Gordon Hayward. That was made very evident in a loss to Evansville. Look for defending champion Duke to flex its muscles today and "prove it" so to speak.

Offensively, Duke is even more explosive than it was a season ago. This plays into our hands here as it is 6-0 ATS when playing away from home after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Devils are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 13.0 or more points and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss. Lay the points with Coach K's kids.

3* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Creighton +8
Odds makers aren't giving Creighton the respect it deserves on its home floor tonight, especially considering it checks in off a loss. In fact, the Bluejays are a ridiculous 59-4 at home following a defeat.

Creighton is already off to a 4-0 start at home this season, and it will be pumped for No. 25 BYU. This is the Cougars first true road game of the season, and it comes against one of the toughest home teams in the country. I don't think BYU will be ready.

Under coach Dave Rose, BYU is just 16-32 ATS in road games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points per game, losing to these squads by an average score of 73.7 to 70.4. Also, the Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Take Creighton and the points.

3* NCAAB National TV Cash Cow (ESPN) on Florida State +4.5
Odds makers were well aware that the money would come in on Ohio State, especially since the Buckeyes crushed Florida and FSU lost to the Gators. With this in mind, the books have set a number they are confident FSU can cover. I'm confident the Noles can keep this one within this number as well, as they have an excellent chance to win this game outright.

The Buckeyes have played 3 absolute patsies since their win over Florida. They won't be ready to match FSU's intensity right from the tip because of it. In fact, the Buckeyes are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 road games following three or more consecutive home games.

FSU just plain shot the ball awful against Florida, but they still defended. It is this defense that makes the Noles such an attractive play as a home dog. Under coach Hamilton, FSU is 18-6 ATS as a home underdog or pick, only losing in these games by an average of 0.6 points. The Noles are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pick, winning these games by an average score of 71.3 to 67.0. Going back further, the Seminoles are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog of 6.5 of fewer points. We'll take the points tonight.

3* NCAAB Big Ten/ACC Challenge (ESPN2) on Minnesota -14
Expect the 6-0 Golden Gophers to keep right on rolling tonight against this young Virginia team. Minnesota head coach Tubby Smith loves to play high-pressure defense. This constant pressure should really where on the Cavs in the second half. Minnesota should be able to take advantage of quite a few Virginia turnovers as a result.

Virginia has already been hammered by Stanford and Washington by 21 and 43 points respectively, and neither of those teams are any better than Minnesota.

Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games after a cover as a double digit favorite, winning in this situation by an average score of 80.3 to 61.2. Lay the points.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Charleston +14
Charleston has defeated the Tar Heels in 2 of the last 3 meetings, and it has either defeated UNC or lost by just 4 points in 4 of the last 6. Carolina is young, and still hasn't figured out how to play defense.

UNC is 1-8 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons, only defeating these teams by 9.3 ppg. Plus, the Cougars are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. Take the points.

3* NCAAB Wednesday Night Blowout on Utah State -10.5
Utah State is the much more experienced team (4 starters return), and it will be out to avenge last season's 1-point defeat at Utah. Plus, with just 1 starter back, I expect Utah to struggle in its first road game of the season.

Going to the numbers, this is a very good spot for the Aggies. In fact, Utah State is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games following a no-cover win, winning in this spot by an average score of 72.7 to 56.8. It is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games after allowing 55 points or less in its last game, winning by an average score of 82.1 to 58.1 in this spot.

In addition, the Aggies are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite, and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

There is a reason why odds makers have the Aggies laying double-digits. They don't think this young Utah team will be ready for a big step up in competition, especially in its first road game. I agree. Lay the points.

3* NCAAB Monday Night Blowout on Missouri State -15.5
This is a tough scheduling spot for a Pepperdine team that finished just 7-24 last season. The Waves will be asked to head east, for the first time this season, to play a game just two days after a heartbreaking loss to Cal State Bakersfield.

Missouri State has had an extra day to rest, and it will be happy to return home following back-to-back road defeats. All 5 starters return from a Missouri State team that led the Valley in scoring a year ago, and I'm expecting these boys to light up the hoop tonight. The Bears scored 78 and won by 17 in their only other home game this season, and I think tonight's margin of victory will be 20-plus.

The Waves are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Missouri Valley. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Lay the points.

3* NCAAB SMASH (ESPN2) on Illinois -3
After playing a couple of complete patsies in Navy and Louisiana Tech, this young Texas team sees a major step up in competition tonight. Look for an experienced Illinois team (returns all 5 starters) to cover this small number.

It is also in Illinois' favor that it just played a game Saturday. It won't have quite the rust that Texas will have, having not played in over a week.

The Longhorns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog, and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Illinois is the better team, and I expect the Fighting Illini to play like it. Lay the points.

3* NCAAB National TV *CASH COW* (ESPN) on Michigan State -16
With the return of Korie Lucious, expect Michigan State to flex its muscles against an inferior opponent on the ESPN stage.

South Carolina may have scored 94 points on Elon, but it won't have the same success on the offensive end against one of the better defensive teams in the country, especially after losing the SEC's leading scorer. The Gamecocks just don't have enough returning talent to make up the 22.5 points that Devan Downey averaged last season.

Michigan State has won 48 straight non-conference games at home, and it is 39-0 at home in November under coach Izzo.

The Gamecocks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Also, the Spartans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the SEC. Lay the number with Michigan State.

3* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Stanford -13.5
Stanford lost by double digits at San Diego last November, but the shoe will be on the other foot tonight. This season Stanford owns the big edge in terms of experience, and it will be looking for some payback. San Diego is extremely young, so its first road test will be very difficult.

In addition, the Toreros were one of the worst covering teams in the country last season. In fact, they are just 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Toreros are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.

We can expect a Johnny Dawkins coached team to play tenacious defense, which should lead to a lot of turnovers by this young San Diego bunch. Look for Stanford to convert those turnovers into points to cover this number.

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Wofford +9.5
Minnesota is being overvalued tonight, especially when you consider that it will be without Devoe Joseph. The Gophers will really miss the 6-3 guard's offense. He scored 14 or more points in 5 of Minnesota's last 8 games.

Wofford has been an excellent underdog. In fact, the Terriers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog. They are also 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Meanwhile, the Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. It is also worth noting that Wofford is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 against the Big Ten.

I'm taking the points with this experienced Wofford team tonight.

3* NCAAB Non-Conference SMASH (ESPNU) on Charleston +14.5
Maryland is getting too much respect with this line simply because it blew out a far inferior Seattle squad. The reality is Maryland is very young and inexperienced. I expect that to show up against a well-coached (Bobby Cremins), more-experienced College of Charleston team.

Charleston has been one of the best ATS teams in college basketball recently. In fact, it is on an impressive 19-9 ATS run. Charleston is also an impressive 44-26 ATS in its last 70 games as a road underdog (or pick) and 45-26 ATS in its last 71 non-conference games.

Gary Williams' young team committed 29 turnovers in their opener. Charleston has the talent to make Maryland pay for its mistakes tonight. Take the points.

3* NCAAB Season Opener (ESPNU) on Pitt -12
Pitt has won 13 straight season openers, and last season's season-opening scare to Wofford ensures that the Panthers will be ready to go tonight.

Pitt has been nothing short of dominant at Petersen Events Center, where it is 132-11 all-time, including 75-1 against non-conference foes. Also in our favor is the fact that Rhode Island has dropped 22 in a row to ranked teams.

This Pitt team, which returns seven of its top eight scorers, has the advantage at nearly every spot on the floor tonight. Look for the Panthers to take care of business by 15-17. Lay the points.

5* National Championship Game *BEST BET* on Duke -7.5
There is no question that Butler is a very, very good basketball team. I wouldn't have taken them against Michigan State in the Final Four if I didn't think so. But that game pointed out Butler's biggest weakness, it's offense. The Bulldogs have endured some lengthy scoring droughts and I foresee more of those tonight against a very good defensive team. Gordon Hayward started out very aggressive against Michigan State in the first half, but then he wasn't looking for his shot much in the second. He is a phenomenal talent, but he is not a selfish player. He lacks that killer instinct that the best scorers have. Because Butler is getting nothing from their inside game with Matt Howard, they will rely on Hayward more than ever tonight, and I just don't think he'll be enough. Duke has a lot more offensive fire power with its big 3 of Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith. Defensively Duke has been superb as well, and it has dominated the glass. This is another huge area of concern for the Bulldogs. They aren't a great rebounding team. We can count on Duke cleaning up the glass, and that means that the Bulldogs won't get a lot of second chance points. In other words, Butler is going to have to shoot a very high percentage to cover this number, and I just don't see it happening. Consider that Duke is a strong 12-5 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or less points per game this season, beating these teams by an average score of 71.8 to 59.7. Duke is also 9-1 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and I'll take them in that role tonight.

5* Final Four *BEST BET* on Duke -2
If West Virginia, a team that normally shoots only 33.6% from three-point range, doesn't go off from deep against Kentucky, finishing 10 of 23 from beyond the arc, and if Kentucky doesn't shoot just 4 of 32 from deep, there's a good chance the Mountaineers aren't in the Final Four. The thing to note is that Kentucky had a lot of wide open looks it just missed. What was even more unlikely was that Joe Mazzula was the best player on the floor for much of that game. Duke beat Baylor by 7 points despite only shooting 36.1% from the field so it has proven that it can win without shooting the ball well, something that couldn't be said about last year's Blue Devils. I'm willing to bet WVU won't shoot the lights out from 3 again, that Duke won't go 4 of 32 like Kentucky did and that Mazzula won't have the kind of game he did in the Elite 8. WVU also benefited from 16 Kentucky turnovers. Duke just doesn't turn the ball over. That means bad news for the Mountaineers as they are just 1-7 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams committing 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Plus, Coach K has been here and done this 11 times now. Huggins only 1 other time. I'll go large with Duke Saturday. Best of Luck.

3* Final Four SMASH on Butler -1
If Butler can beat Syracuse and Kansas State, it can certainly take care of a Michigan State team playing without its best player. Butler is very experienced and very disciplined on both ends of the floor. Defensively, the Bulldogs have held each of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents under 60 points. Offensively, the Bulldogs take good care of the basketball and they rarely take a bad shot. Playing smart, disciplined basketball has gotten the Bulldogs here, and I believe it will take them into the championship game. With this game taking place so close to Butler's campus, the Bulldogs will have the crowd on their side, and that can be huge in a game like this, which figures to be a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair. Butler has won 24 straight games, proving how successful its brand of basketball can be. Izzo is a great motivator, but I just can't see him sneaking past yet another opponent without Kalin Lucas. He's going to miss his most clutch performer in this game. Brad Stevens has made his boys believe. The Bulldogs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big Ten and I look for this trend to continue.

3* NIT Championship SMASH (ESPN) on Dayton -2.5
The Flyers are the more experienced team and that is huge this time of year. They are also the better defensive team, and playing solid defense is another must if you're going to win any type of championship. It is certainly worth noting that UNC is only 1-7 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or less points per game after, 15+ games this season, losing to these teams by an average score of 62 to 72.9. When odds makers have put Carolina in the underdog role, it's usually for a reason as the Heels command so much betting attention. In fact, the Tar Heels are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog and only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. In addition, the Flyers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Dayton has taken this tournament very seriously and I look for its experience and defense to be the difference.

4* Major CBI Cash Cow on Saint Louis +1.5
Saint Louis has been incredible on its home floor this season. The Billikens are 18-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in home line games. The defense has been absolutely dominant as the Billikens are holding their opponents to just 57.5 points per game on their home floor. After losing Game 1 of the CBI Championship Series, I look for Saint Louis to bounce back strong on its home floor tonight. Saint Louis is a near-perfect 7-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, winning these games by an average score of 66.8 to 59.8. Over the last 3 seasons, the Billikens are an outstanding 14-4 ATS in home games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 64.1 to 60.3. There's no way that Saint Louis should be the underdog on its home floor tonight. Bet the Billikens.

5* NIT Game of the Year on Ole Miss +1.5
Dayton is a good ball club, but I really believe Ole Miss is the better team from the better conference. I give the Rebels a big edge here because this game is being played on a neutral court. Ole Miss has been the better team when playing away from home this season. Dayton is 7-10 SU and 7-9-1 ATS when playing away from home this season. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS when playing away from home this season. Dayton has struggled with teams that can really score the basketball, losing 2 of 3 to Xavier this season because it lacked that little extra offensive punch. Well, Ole Miss can certainly score it. The Rebels average 8.7 more ppg than the Flyers do. We find ourselves in a unique, highly profitable situation tonight as the Rebels are an impressive 14-4 ATS after allowing 75 or more points in consecutive games under coach Kennedy, winning these games by an average score of 77.1 to 69.5. The Rebs are also on a 31-15 ATS run after scoring 80 points or more in a game under coach Kennedy, winning these games by an average score of 79.4 to 72.0. We also can't overlook the fact that Dayton is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 neutral site games and just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 neutral site contests as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Rebels are an impressive 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog. I feel strongly enough that Ole Miss will win this one outright that I have made it my strongest play in the NIT this season. Best of Luck.

3* CBI Tourney SMASH on Saint Louis +9
The knock on Saint Louis earlier this season was that it wasn't a very good away from home. This certainly changed as the season went on as the Billikens won their last 4 true road games. Because Saint Louis plays such solid defense, it has lost by 9 or fewer points in 9 of 10 true road games this season. Saint Louis is all about defense and slowing down the tempo on offense. As a result, St. Louis is a perfect 10-0 ATS after 3 straight games where it and its opponent have scored 70 points or less this season, actually winning in these spots by an average score of 67.6 to 62.1. The Billikens are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. VCU is a good home team, but it will see a defense unlike it has seen in a long time tonight. Take the points.

5* Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Baylor +5
We saw Baylor feed off of the crowd in Friday's impressive win over Saint Mary's as many Baylor fans made the trip to Houston. I expect the crowd to play a big factor in this one as well. Duke was able to get past Purdue because it dominated the boards, but it won't have the same success against a Baylor squad that is very long and very athletic up front. Duke has proven to be fade material in the tournament when in the small chalk. In fact, the Blue Devils are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. In addition, Baylor is 8-2 ATS when playing top caliber teams who outscore their opponents by 12 or more points per game this season. Baylor is actually defeating these teams 7.5 points on average. Baylor matches up with Duke very well. In fact, Duke is going to have a tougher time matching up with Baylor. We saw Duke struggle a couple times this season against a big Georgia Tech team. It is also worth noting that Baylor shoots the 3 a lot better than Duke. The Bears have shot it as a 40.9% clip outside their home gym while Duke has only shot it at 34.3%. Take Baylor and the points.

4* Major Elite 8 Early Annihilator on Tennessee -1.5
The Spartans were able to survive Northern Iowa without Kalin Lucas because the Panthers are a defensive team that packs it in. The absence of Lucas will be felt much more strongly in this one as Tennessee likes to pressure its opponents all over the floor. If Tennessee can beat Evan Turner and Ohio State, it can take care of a Michigan State squad minus its best player. The Vols are long and athletic and very active on the offensive glass. I just can't see Tennessee going down here unless it shoots an absurdly low field goal percentage. The Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big Ten, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Right now, Tennessee is the better team, and I'll take that team laying a small number this afternoon.

3* Elite 8 Perfect Angle Power Play on West Virginia +4.5
Kentucky has looked unstoppable in this tournament, but it hasn't faced a defense like West Virginia's yet. The Mountaineers have held 6 straight opponents under 60 points, and they have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to under 40% shooting. This defensive run is rather significant when you consider that WVU is a perfect 6-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Kentucky just held Cornell to 45 points, but it is on a 0-8 ATS after slide allowing 50 points or less. WVU is on a 21-4 ATS run in post-season tournament games and on a 15-2 ATS run in NCAA tournament games, including 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. With as good as West Virginia is defensively, they have what it takes to pull off the upset. I'll take the points in a game that should go right down to the wire.

5* Elite 8 Game of the Year on K-State -4
Butler is a really good team, but their tournament run comes to an end this afternoon. After getting a major scare from Xavier, and knowing that Butler knocked out Syracuse, expect the more talented Wildcats to show up that much more focused today. This time of year, a couple things really matter, experience and good guard play. Both teams have experience on their side, but K-State has the overwhelming advantage at the guard positions. No one has had an answer for Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen in this tournament, and I don't think Butler will be the team to break the mold. The Wildcats are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Horizon League. Lay the points with K-State.

5* Friday Sweet 16 *BEST BET* on Michigan State pk
I know Michigan State is without Kalin Lucas, and Chris Allen and Delvon Roe are banged up, but this is still a big, physical, squad that has been here and done that before. And this squad is playing for a coach that has been here and done that a lot. Northern Iowa is a good basketball team, but the fact that it relies so heavily on perimeter scoring will finally catch up with the Panthers tonight. Expect the Spartans to kill the Panthers on the boards. Michigan State is 10-1 ATS when playing away from home after a game where it outrebounding an opponent by 15 or more over the last 3 seasons. I've grabbed the Spartans at a pick, but they opened as a 1.5-point favorite and are still a 1-point fave at many books. The fact that they opened as a fave could prove to be quite crucial as they are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or less points and 21-6-2 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less period. The Panthers started to really pee down their legs when Kansas started pressuring them late in the game. Expect coach Izzo to take note of that and apply the pressure much sooner. Also, expect the Spartans to really look to hammer the ball inside to take advantage of their physical bodies. We'll pound Michigan State.

4* Major Sweet 16 Perfect Angle Power Play on Baylor -4.5
Look for the length and athleticism of Baylor to be too much for Saint Mary's tonight. The key to beating Saint Mary's is keeping Omar Samhan in check, and I believe Baylor's long and athletic front line guys will be able to do just that. Saint Mary's is a team that can hurt its opponents with the 3-point shot, but Baylor has really excelled against these type of teams. In fact, Baylor is on a 7-0 ATS run vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams making 41% or more of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Gaels, meanwhile, are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog. With this one being played in Houston, Texas, the Bears will have the support of the crowd as well. We'll lay the points with Baylor.

3* Sweet 16 SMASH on Cornell +9
The experienced Cornell squad has the advantage of playing with nothing to lose, and that makes this team very dangerous. This young Kentucky team will be feeling all the pressure. Plus, the Big Red won't be lacking any confidence heading in as they have already battled both Syracuse and Kansas this season. I feel Cornell is catching plenty of points tonight when you consider how well it takes care of the basketball and how well it shoots the ball from 3-point range. We're talking a team that shot a ridiculous 45.1% from 3 on the road this season. I know Kentucky travels well, but I expect the Carrier Dome crowd to be rallying behind nearby Cornell in this one. Kentucky's blowout wins in the first two rounds are the reason why it is this heavily favored at this stage of the game, but history tells us this is the best time to fade the Wildcats as they are on a 2-17 ATS slide after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points. Take Cornell and the points.

5* Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Xavier +5
When these two teams met earlier this season, K-State won on its home floor by 15 points over Xavier. That was a payback game. The Wildcats were hungry to avenge a 26-point defeat to Xavier in the previous meeting. Now it's time for Xavier to have it revenge on a neutral floor. Playing teams like N. Texas and BYU in the early rounds isn't the same preparation as playing teams like Minnesota and Pitt. I look for Xavier to be the more intense, physical team tonight. I love the way the Musketeers compete no matter who they are playing. That's a big reason why they are 17-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. You also have to like the fact that Xavier is 8-1 ATS in NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 4.7 points. The Musketeers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games as an underdog and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. I still don't feel this Xavier team is getting the respect it deserves. Take the points.

3* Sweet 16 Public Massacre on Butler +7
Odds makers know that everyone and their brother is going to be on Syracuse here after watching the Orange crush Gonzaga and Butler struggle with Murray State. With that in mind, they have given Butler plenty of cushion to cover this number as they feel it will be a close game. And I agree entirely. Experience is crucial this time of year and Butler has more of it with all 5 starters back from last year's team. This Butler team plays smart, and because of that, it just doesn't get blown out. Right away, I love the fact that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after playing a game where both teams scored 65 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season, are 108-57 ATS the last 5 seasons and 76-34 ATS the last 3 seasons. Teams in this situation are only losing by 2.9 points on average. This system shows a direct correlation between experience and a slow style of play as a successful formula for winning when catching points. The Bulldogs are also an impressive 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog. We'll go against the grain and take the points with the Bulldogs tonight.

3* Wednesday NCAAB Top Side on Princeton +4.5
Princeton has what it takes to win this game straight up so I will take the points with the Tigers tonight. Both teams play halfcourt hoops so we can expect this to be a close game, and I'll take the points in this situation every time. Plus, based on the low total set for this game, odds makers feel points will be at a premium. So once again, I like our side where we are catching a couple field goals. Princeton is 18-6 ATS in all lined games this season so it is one of the very best covering teams in the country. It is also a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%), after 15 or more games, over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. We'll take the points.

3* NIT SMASH (ESPN) on Ole Miss -9
Ole Miss is a really good team, one that was certainly worthy of playing in the NCAA Tournament in my book. We're talking about a team that owns a 12-point win over Kansas State this season. That same K-State squad beat Texas Tech convincingly by 19 points. Home court is huge tonight as Texas Tech is just 4-9 in true road games this season. This number may appear steep at first glance, but consider that the Rebels are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, the Red Raiders are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll lay the points.

3* 34-0 ATS CBI SMASH on St. Louis -7
St. Louis is on a perfect 8-0 ATS run in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games into the season since 1997. It is also 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. In addition, St. Louis is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) under coach Majerus. The staple of Majerus led teams has been defense and that is certainly the case with this team. So it comes as no surprise that Majerus is 11-0 ATS in home games after game where his team allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less in all games he has coached since 1997. The Billikens are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Meanwhile, the Phoenix are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the number.

3* NIT SMASH (ESPN) on Dayton +3.5
Cincy may be 13-4 at home this season, but it is only 2-9 ATS in its home lined games. In fact, the Bearcats are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games dating back to last season. The Bearcats are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. In addition, Cincy is only 1-7 ATS in home games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4 or more points per game this season, only winning in these spots by 0.3 points on average. Cincy is also 0-7 ATS in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

3* NCAA Tourney Public Massacre on Purdue +2
Everyone is on Texas A&M here, but I'll take an experienced Purdue team that marched on to the Sweet 16 a season ago in this spot. Purdue is the superior defensive team, only allowing 61 ppg this season, and it has proved to be deadly as a dog in this tournament. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The Boilermakers are also 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog overall and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Purdue played with a real chip on its shoulder in its first round game against Siena. The Boilermakers know that no one expects them to do anything without Robbie Hummel, and they are out to prove everyone wrong. I'll take Purdue.

3* SMASH on Xavier +1
Pitt knocked Xavier out of last year's NCAA Tournament with a 5-point win. I look for Xavier to return the favor here against a Pitt squad that isn't nearly as good this season. Xavier has made a living out of being competitive in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, the Musketeers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big East. Xavier is also 16-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 74.6 to 66.4, and 18-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last 2 seasons, defeating these teams by an average score of 75.5 to 63.6. Plus, Xavier has the best player on the floor in Jordan Crawford, and that never hurts. Take Xavier.

5* Sunday NCAA Tourney *BEST BET* on Michigan State +1
The experience of Kalin Lucas and company in these big games should keep the defending national runner-up marching on. Michigan State has proven to be a strong team on neutral courts. The Spartans are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games as an underdog and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less. Meanwhile, Maryland is just 10-22 ATS its last 32 as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less. Defense wins championships this time of year and Michigan State is the better defensive team, only allowing 63.8 ppg. Michigan State is also the best rebounding team in the nation in terms of rebounding margin. It outrebounds its opponents by 9.4 per game. I'll take the team with more tournament experience, the better defensive team and the better rebounding team today.

4* Major NCAA Tourney Dog of the Day on Wake Forest +9.5
Kentucky's good, but not good enough in my estimation to defeat a talented Wake Forest squad by 10 points on a neutral floor. Wake is 12-4 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, only losing in these spots by 1.0 ppg on average. Wake showed that it could deal with the size of Texas so I don't see Kentucky's size overpowering the Deacs in this one. Plus, playing a highly competitive first round game with a lot more intensity should be to the benefit of Wake as well. Wake has proven time and time against under coach Gaudio that it's going to play its best ball against the best competition. In fact, Wake is 17-4 ATS versus very good teams, outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game, after 15+ games under Gaudio, winning in these spots by an average score of 73.3 to 72.4. Look for Wake to give Kentucky a scare tonight!

5* 2010 NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Tennessee -8
Beating a school like Georgetown is like winning the whole thing for a school like Ohio. Tennessee, on the other hand, has much bigger goals. Unfortunately for Ohio, their Cinderella run ends here. While it's not uncommon for some of these higher seeds to sneak up on a first round opponent, the cat is usually out of the bag come the second round. Expect Tennessee, which is a much better defensive team than Georgetown, to be ready. Ohio was able to score 97 points in its win over Georgetown while shooting a ridiculous 58.2% from the field. It would take a similar effort to beat the Vols today and I just don't see it happening. Defensively, the Vols are long and they are relentless. They only allow 64.9 ppg on 39.4% shooting. And after a lackluster offensive effort against San Diego State, I expect Tennessee to really kick things into high gear against a team that allowed Georgetown to shoot over 50% from the field. Expect a big letdown from Ohio today as the Vols march on with a double digit win. Best of Luck.

3* Early SMASH on Villanova -4.5
After getting a major scare from Robert Morris, expect Nova to roll in round 2. This is where the experience gained during last year's Final Four run takes over. The Gaels are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Villanova is 15-6 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 83.1 to 76.5. I also like the fact that Nova is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by 7.9 points on average. I can't see Scottie Reynolds struggling again today after such a poor shooting performance in round one. Look for the Wildcats to move on with a win and cover.

3* NCAA Tourney *Crunch Time Bailout* on Louisville pk
If the Cards show up they should win this game, and one has to think they will after watching other Big East schools struggle Thursday. Plus, Cal has been dealt a tough hand with starter Omondi Amoke out serving a suspension. It's been an up and down season for the Cards, but they are certainly capable of making a run when you consider that they have defeated Syracuse twice this season. You also have to like the fact that the Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Pac-10. The Golden Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big East. Louisville has made a Final Four and two Elite 8