Sports Picks & Predictions

4* NCAAB SMASH on Belmont -8.5
After getting smoked at Kansas in its last game, Belmont will be ready to go when it hits its home floor tonight. The Bruins are 3-0 at home where they have won by an average of 29.3 points. They have proven they can hang with the big boys, as evidenced by their upset win over Stanford on the road.

South Dakota State isn't as battle-tested as Belmont as it hasn't played as challenging of a schedule. Plus, it has struggled on the road, going just 1-3 in true road games this season.

The Jackrabbits are only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. Lay the number.

4* NCAAB SMASH on UMKC +16.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect UMKC to keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think.

The Kangaroos haven't lost by more than 10 points at home this season, and will have an excellent opportunity to keep this one within the number against an Iowa State squad that has struggled away from home. The Cyclones are just 1-3 SU and ATS in games played outside Ames, IA this season. The Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 true road games.

It is also significant that UMKC failed to cover the number in its last game as it is a hot 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss. Take the Kangaroos.

3* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Cal -12.5
Cal has lost three in a row since starting the season 6-0, and it will be hungry to take its frustrations out on a team it defeated by 20 points last season because of it.

Each of Cal's three defeats have come against quality opponents. UCSB doesn't have a quality win and has lost to the likes of LSU, Illinois State, Boise State and Wyoming by 14 points or more.

Cal lost its most recent game to a very good Creighton team, but the fact the Golden Bears got after the boards and took care of the basketball bodes very well for us tonight.

Consider that Cal is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Montgomery in home games after outrebounding an opponent by 15 boards or more. It has won these six by an average score of 82.3 to 61.0.

Cal is also 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Montgomery in home games after a game it committed 8 or less turnovers. It has these seven by an average score of 82.3 to 63.7. Lay the number with the Golden Bears in this highly motivated spot.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Purdue -15.5
Off back-to-back losses away from home, expect Purdue to roll when it steps back on its home floor tonight.

Home court has treated the Boilermakers well in recent seasons as they are on a 21-10 ATS run in lined home games dating back to the 2010 season. They are an awesome 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points during this span and have won by an average score of 74.8 to 49.2 in these spots.

It is also significant that Purdue suffered a double-digit loss to Notre Dame its last time out. That's because the Boilermakers have responded extremely well following such embarrassing defeats. In fact, they are 8-1 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Lay the points as Purdue rolls in this motivated spot.

3* NCAABB Sure Fire on IUPU Ft Wayne +23.5

This is a lot of points for Notre Dame to be giving up tonight so I'll gladly take the big number. The Irish are coming off a big win against in-state rival Purdue on Saturday so you can imagine it might be tough for them to get up for this quick turnaround against a team they didn't exactly circle on the schedule in the preseason.

The big number also puts into play a pretty solid system that says to FADE favorites of 20+ points off seven or more straight wins. These teams are just 33-65 ATS the past five seasons.

Mike Brey hasn't exactly blown inferior opponents out either. Since becoming coach of the Irish Brey is just 26-41 ATS as a home favorite of 10+ points.

You aren't going to see any threat of an upset tonight, but I can't see Notre Dame covering this large number on Monday.

3* on SMASH on Detroit +19.5

I got hosed on Saturday going against Syracuse but I'm giving it another shot tonight. Canisius played them closer than the 24 point final indicated as the Orange led by only a few points at halftime. They had to shoot 55% from the floor to earn that cover and I can't see them repeating that kind of shooting performance tonight.

Detroit is a solid team that went through a tough schedule early in the year playing the likes of St. John's, Miami, and Pitt. While they struggled it helped prepare them for the rest of their games as Detroit has now won four straight games and is on a little bit of a roll of their own.

The big number here and Syracuse's perfect record sets us up for a nice little system that says to fade home favorites of 10+ points off 9 or more straight wins. These teams are just 76-133 ATS the last five years.

Detroit is a better team than they are being given credit for and Syracuse is laying a few extra points than they should be here. Go with the underdog.

4* Sunday BEST BET on Northern Illinois +19

This is a lot of points to be laying for DePaul here today. Northern Illinois is a team that hasn't gotten enough respect from odds makers lately, winning three straight ATS by keeping the game close to Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Dayton.

DePaul is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers in this one after posting some big upset wins over Auburn and Arizona State. DePaul has won the past two years against Northern Illinois by scores of 75-52 and 86-84, both times as 9.5 point favorites.
What happens is the public sees the recent results and how these two teams have matched up the past two years and they want to jump all over DePaul. That has caused a couple points of inflation and the value to be with Northern Illinois on Sunday.

4* NCAABB on Canisius +21

Who wants to go against Syracuse right now? The betting public will take one look at this game and see an undefeated Big East team who has coming off three straight wins by 29+ points and be more than willing to lay the big number. I'm going the other way. Sure you probably don't know much about Canisius but this is an under-rated club. They have gone 6-1 on the season and have looked impressive winning their last three games away from home by double digits. Will they win this game? Probably not, but this team will bring full effort the entire game since it's a chance to prove their worth against a quality opponent. While I think this number is a few points high to begin with, the large number also provides us an excellent opportunity for a team like Syracuse to pump the brakes if they do get up big and Canisius to get the back door cover.

3* SMASH on New Mexico State +9

Nothing better than taking an underdog in an in-state rivalry game. You know the Aggies are going to have a chance to pull the upset here, they won by nine last year when the Lobos were favored by 12 at home. If you think that means New Mexico will get their revenge, they already did with a 20 point win later in the season. Instead what you find is a lot of value going against a team that has won their first 10 games of the season. Don't sleep on NM State as they have gone under the radar in covering four straight, their only loss in the past month has come by a single point at UTEP. Why is nine points too many? Because both points will be at a premium today. Both teams are allowing under 63 points per game while neither is wearing the nets out. When you get two slower paced teams that play good defense it's tough to win by double digits. Don't count on New Mexico doing that today so take the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Boise State -5.5
LSU is 6-0 but hasn't played anyone. It also hasn't played a single game away from home. I expect it to go down here in its first road contest of the year against a more battle-tested team.

Boise State took Michigan State down to the wire on the road and also beat Creighton on the road so it can definitely hang with the big boys. It is also to our benefit that we get the Broncos in an extremely motivated spot. They were embarrassed at Utah in their last game, and they were also embarrassed at LSU in last season's meeting. They'll be out to erase both blemishes in a big way.

The Broncos are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 20 points. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games following three or more consecutive road games. Bet Boise State.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Tennessee pk
Wichita State has been a bit of a surprise in the early going as it is 9-0 despite losing five seniors. However, the Shockers haven't really played anyone. Tennessee, which brings back 4 starters, has played a much tougher schedule. Getting tested early on will benefit the Vols in this battle.

Tennessee is just 4-3 but has played just two games at home. Home court has treated the Vols well as they are on a 14-3 ATS run at home and a 10-2 ATS run as a home favorite or pickem.

It is significant that Tennessee was held to just 38 points on the road in its last game because it has responded at home following similar poor showings. In fact, it is 6-0 ATS all-time in home games under coach Martin following a road loss in which it was held to less than 60 points. It is also 6-0 ATS under Martin in home games after being held to 25 points or fewer in the first half of its last game.

In addition, it is significant that the Vols have held each of their last three opponents to 50 points or less. That's because teams headed up by Martin are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games after holding their foes to 65 points or less in 3 straight games. Take Tennessee.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Tennessee-Chattanooga +18
I expect Chattanooga to be in better form tonight as it just played Saturday and LSU hasn't take the floor since Nov. 29. I expect the long layoff to allow some rust to set in. Plus, the Tigers will have a hard time not looking ahead to Friday's matchup at Boise State.

The Mocs won't be in awe of LSU tonight as they have already stepped on the floor with Kansas. They played the Jayhawks to a 14-point game on the road. In fact, they have lost by more than 18 points just one time this season.

It actually bodes well for us that Chattanooga enters off back-to-back poor showings. Consider that teams that have trailed in their last two games by 10 points or more at the half, provided both they and their opponent are good defensive teams that allow just 63-67 ppg, are 38-14 ATS the last 5 seasons.

It is also worth noting that the Mocs are on a 22-10 ATS run after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.

The Tigers are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games versus teams that have a winning percentage below .400. Take Tennessee-Chattanooga.

3* NCAAB SMASH (ESPNU) on Cal -1
Motivated by an ugly 81-56 loss at Wisconsin in its last game, and further fueled by last season's embarrassing 85-68 defeat at UNLV, expect Cal to take care of business on its home floor Sunday.

UNLV has played one road game this season and didn't come close to covering the spread. That doesn't come as a surprise considering the Rebels are now just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games and have lost these by an average score of 69.4 to 72.8.

If you need proof that Cal's loss to Wisconsin will have it fired up, here it is. The Golden Bears are on an awesome 11-2 ATS run in games following a road loss of 20 points or more. They have won by an average score of 74.2 to 68.4 in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Bears are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. Bet Cal.

5* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on USC +8
USC has dropped four in a row since a 3-1 start and will be ready to go tonight because of it. It lost by 15 at Minnesota last season and will be out for some serious revenge.

The Gophers have won five in a row and are being overvalued on the road because of it. Consider that they are just 3-12 ATS all-time under coach Smith in road games following four or more consecutive wins. They have lost by an average score of 73.2 to 69.1 in this situation.

In addition, Minnesota is on an 18-35 ATS slide in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. It has lost by an average score of 73.0 to 65.0 in this situation.

USC beat Texas and showed well against Marquette, San Diego State and New Mexico. With a chance to gain some momentum with a win over a ranked opponent, I'm confident the Trojans will show up tonight.

4* NCAAB Under the Radar SMASH on Northeastern +4
Motivated by three consecutive defeats and out for revenge for last season's 17-point loss at LaSalle, Northeastern is in prime position to pull off the upset.

LaSalle, who enters this contest riding high off a blowout win over Penn State, has won four of its last five games and is being overvalued because of it. Consider that the Explorers are on a 9-23 ATS slide when checking in with 4 wins in their last 5 games. They have lost by an average score of 73.8 to 69.1 in this situation.

The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

I'm getting behind Northeastern in this prime spot.

3* NCAAB *Afternoon Delight* on Eastern Michigan +9.5
Purdue is down this season, and Eastern Michigan will be awake here after getting smacked by Syracuse. Furthermore, it will be tough for Purdue to get up for this game after annihilating Lamar and remembering how easily it defeated Eastern Mich last season.

Consider that home underdogs or pickems that allow 64.0 points or less per game following a blowout loss of 30 points or more are 26-6 ATS since 1997. These dogs have only lost by 0.7 points on average in this situation.

Under coach Painter, Purdue has been a terrible investment on the road following a lopsided victory. In fact, it is just 14-24 ATS under his watch in road games after a win by 15 points or more. It has actually lost by an average score of 68.3 to 67.8 in this situation. Take Eastern Mich and the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* Blowout on Wisconsin-Milwaukee -11
Off five consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing 20-point home loss to Buffalo last game, expect Wisconsin-Milwaukee to show no mercy to this inferior Northern Illinois squad.

The Panthers are on an impressive 16-6 ATS run in home games following a home loss. They are also on a 35-16 ATS run following a loss by 15 points or more.

In addition, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is on a perfect 7-0 ATS run versus horrible offensive teams that score 57.0 points or fewer per game. It is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games versus teams allow 64.0 points or less per game over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Panthers.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Davidson -8
An experienced Davidson team that returns all 5 starters will be out for some serious revenge tonight as it goes up against a Charlotte squad that won last season's meeting by 23 points. That game was at Charlotte. Recent history tells us we can expect a much different result with Davidson hosting this one.

The home team has won each of the past five meetings, and it's 4-0 ATS in the last four. These four wins have come by an average of 18.0 points. Davidson has won by 28 and 14 points, respectively, the last two times it has hosted.

The Wildcats are on a 10-2 ATS run as a home favorite or pickem, winning these games by an average score of 81.7 to 63.2.

It is also significant that Davidson checks in off a road win at UT Chattanooga. That's because it is 6-0 ATS in home games off a road win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average score of 85.3 to 66.0 in this situation. Bet the Wildcats.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Northwestern +11.5
Off back-to-back losses, the Wildcats will be very focused tonight, especially since they were embarrassed at home by Baylor last season. The Bears won't have the same focus or sense of urgency following a very satisfying win over Kentucky.

The Bears are just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games following a win and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.

The Wildcats, who are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, have a nice chunk of history on their side as well. Consider that December underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that check in off an upset loss are 160-97 ATS since 1997. This system is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. Bet Northwestern.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Arkansas -3.5
Motivated and seasoned by three consecutive losses to Arizona State, Wisconsin and Syracuse, and further fueled by a 15-point loss at Oklahoma last season, look for Arkansas to bounce back in a big way here.

The Razorbacks are on a 16-6 against the spread run in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses and have won by an average of 6.0 points in this situation.

The Sooners have not played as challenging of a schedule as Arkansas. The only truly formidable opponent they have played is Gonzaga and the Bulldogs crushed them by 25 points. Arkansas, meanwhile, showed pretty well against Wisconsin and Syracuse, and it will be ready to go here.

It is also worth noting that the Sooners are a lousy 27-55-3 ATS in their last 85 road games.

The home team has dominated this series of late. In fact, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and has won these by an average of 12.8 points. Arkansas has won by 8 and 10 points, respectively, the last two times it has hosted Oklahoma. Bet the Razorbacks.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Wisconsin -7
Motivated by a rare loss at home in its last game, expect Wisconsin to take care of business this afternoon.

The Badgers are just 4-3 but have played a nice schedule with games against the likes of Florida and Creighton. They will benefit from those early season challengers hers as they go up against a Cal team that is 6-0 but hasn't really played anyone.

Under coach Bo Ryan, the Badgers are a terrific 86-59 ATS as a home favorite or pickem. It is significant that they check in off an upset loss because they are 25-12 ATS in games following an upset defeat under Ryan's watch. It is also significant that they have failed to cover the spread in their last three games because they are 16-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games under Ryan. They have won by an average score of 71.0 to 57.8 in these contests.

Lastly, the Badgers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team that has a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Bet the Badgers.

4* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Saint Mary's -13.5
Riding high off a big upset win over UCLA, expect Cal Poly to get knocked back down to earth by a hungry Saint Mary's squad that will be looking to end a 2-game skid.

Letdowns have been the norm for Cal Poly following wins or narrow margins in recent seasons. In fact, they are 3-11 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

The Mustangs really find themselves in trouble tonight because of Saint Mary's 3-point shooting. The Gaels are averaging 8 3-point makes per game on the season and are shooting them at a sweet 38.1% clip. They have averaged 9 makes from beyond the arc and have made them at a 42.2% clip in their two home games.

Cal Poly is 3-11 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or more of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. The Mustangs are also 0-8 ATS all-time under coach Callero versus teams that make 8 or more 3-point shots per game. Lay the points as the Gael's make it rain tonight.

4* NCAAB SMASH on Oakland +4
Motivated by back-to-back losses, and further fueled by an upset loss at home to Western Michigan last season, Oakland will give the Broncos all they want and more here.

The Grizzlies return 4 starters who have not forgotten about the 91-76 beating WMU handed them last season, and they'll be out for some serious revenge.

While Oakland is an experienced team that showed what it is capable of when it took Pitt to OT on the road, Western Michigan returns just 1 starter.

The Golden Grizzlies are 23-11-2 ATS in their last 36 road games and 12-3 ATS in Saturday road games over the last 3 seasons. Take the points with the more experienced team in this highly motivated spot.

4* NCAAB SMASH on Iowa State -4.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses away from home to a pair of quality opponents, expect Iowa State to take care of business this afternoon as it returns to the friendly confines of Hilton Coliseum.

BYU has struggled on the road against good teams. In fact, it is on a 59-98 ATS slide in road games when playing against a team that has a winning record. The Cyclones, on the other hand, are on a 15-6 ATS run at home when playing against a team that has a winning record.

The Cougars have also been a poor investment in the underdog role. They are on a 52-86 ATS skid when catching points, including a 10-23 ATS slide as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Iowa State.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Marquette +10.5
This is a game Marquette wants badly. You might recall that it was upset by Florida in last season's NCAA tournament, and you can bet that it hasn't forgotten about that loss for a second.

The Golden Eagles have been a terrific investment when catching points. They are on a 13-4 ATS run in the underdog role. They are on an even more impressive 30-10 ATS run as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points, including 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points under coach Williams.

Marquette is also on a 12-2 ATS run when playing against top-level teams that have won more than 80% or their games, and it is also an 11-2 ATS run versus teams that have outscored their opponents by 12.0 points or more per game. Take the points with this motivated Marquette squad.

3* NCAAB SMASH on UTEP -3.5
UTEP has lost four in a row SU and ATS, but those losses came against the likes of Arizona, Oklahoma, Clemson and Vanderbilt. New Mexico State has played just one school from a major conference (Oregon State). UTEP is now at home and battle tested. The lumps it has taken in its last four games will pay off tonight.

The Miners won the most recent meeting at home 73-69. They have also won three of the last four and five of the last seven.

It should also be mentioned that New Mexico State is not the same team it was a season ago. It only returns two starters. It lost trio of players that accounted for an average of 40.0 points and 20.0 rebounds per game.

The Aggies remain a good rebounding team statistically, but consider that UTEP is 6-0 ATS in home games the last three seasons versus good rebounding teams that outrebound opponents by 4.0 or more per game. The Miners have won these games by an average score of 67.0 to 59.8.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Youngstown State -4
This is a big bounce-back spot for Youngstown State, which has lost three straight since starting the season 3-0. It will be happy to be back home where it has played just one other game this season. The Penguins went 10-4 at home last season and should be a terrific home team again with all the experience they bring back.

While this is a bounce-back spot for Youngstown, it's a letdown spot for Kent State, who is coming off a big upset win over a Big Ten foe (Nebraska).

The Golden Flashes have not been a good investment. They are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. They are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 non-conference games, including 4-9 ATS in their last 13 versus the Horizon League.

The Penguins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 head-to-head meetings. Take Youngstown State.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Denver +6
Motivated by back-to-back losses to solid Cal and Colorado State squads, I expect Denver to give a So. Miss team it defeated by 7 points last season a game.

The Golden Eagles are 5-0, and the last thing a team that is rolling wants is a lengthy break. They haven't played since Nov. 21, and recent history suggests that will work against them here. Consider that So. Miss is 0-6 ATS when playing on 5 or 6 days' rest since the beginning of the 2010 season. It has won these games on average but only by 3.3 points.

The Golden Eagles are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Also, plays against any team that has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games, provided they have won 80% or more of their games on the season and are matched up against a team that has won 20-40% of its games, are 41-15 ATS the last 5 seasons.

So. Miss is getting a little too much respect here. Take the points.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Northern Colorado +15
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and hungry to end a two-game skid in this series, look for Northern Colorado to give Colorado State a game tonight.

The Bears have been a terrific investment when catching big points. They are on 14-3 ATS run as an underdog of 10 points or more and have lost these games by just 11.0 points on average. The Bears are on an even more impressive 12-1 ATS run as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points and have lost these games by only 10.8 points on average.

I just don't see Colorado State wanting this game as much. I expect a bit of a letdown from the Rams following their big upset win at Washington. Take the points.

5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Marshall -7
Marshall has lost back-to-back games and three of its last four. Motivated by these defeats and finally back home, I expect the Thundering Herd to roll here.

Marshall is a stellar 8-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons and has won by an average of 9.1 points in this situation. Also, teams headed up by coach Herrion are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games when entering the contest off three losses in their last four games. His teams have won by an average of 9.9 points in this situation.

It is especially significant that Marshall enters off an upset loss at Hofstra. That's because it is 6-0 ATS all-time under Herrion when coming off an upset defeat. Lay the points.

4* NCAAB SMASH on SE Missouri State +5
Southeast Missouri State is being undervalued here because it is coming off back-to-back losses both straight up and against the spread and is up against an Illinois-Chicago squad that check in off back-to-back wins both SU and ATS.

It is significant that the Flames check in off a victory because they are a poor 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a win. It is also significant that they are at home where they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4.

SEMS averages 70% from the foul line on the season but shot just 43.8% from the charity stripe last game and was upset as a result. You can bet they've been living at the line in practice the last few days following that poor performance.

Consider that teams headed up by coach Nutt are 22-9 ATS all-time after a game where they made 53% of their free throws or worse. They have won by an average of 1.1 points in this situation. Take the points.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Rhode Island +2.5
Rhode Island is 0-4 but has played well in its last two games. After opening the season with a pair of duds against Norfolk State and Virginia Tech, it has turned in a pair of solid performances against Ohio State and Seton Hall, covering the spread in each. Those strong outings have built the confidence level of the Rams, and I believe they are poised to pick up their first win of the season tonight.

Loyola Maryland is 4-1 but hasn't played the same level of competition as Rhode Island. It has been overvalued by oddsmakers in the early going as it is just 1-2 ATS in the 3 lined games it's played. It remains overvalued here.

The Greyhounds are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 37-50 ATS all-time when laying points under coach Patsos.

The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Brigham Young -17
Off back-to-back double-digit losses to solid Florida State and Notre Dame clubs, expect BYU to take out its frustrations all over an inferior Texas San Antonio team tonight.

The Cougars have been a solid bet at home lately at 2-0 ATS this season and 5-2 ATS in the last 7. They have also been extremely reliable when laying double digits. Consider that they are on a 74-47 ATS run as a favorite of 10 points or more and have won by an average of 18.9 points in these games.

In addition, BYU is on a 28-14 ATS run as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points and has won these games by an average of 18.6 points. Bet BYU.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Howard +6.5
Off three consecutive defeats to start the season, including back-to-back losses via blowout to superior teams, Howard will be hungry to break into the win column this afternoon as it finally faces another opponent it is capable of beating.

Besides having a strong motivational factor in our favor, we also have a strong system supporting this play. Consider that plays against neutral court favorites or pickems that led in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half and are matched up against an opponent that trailed in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half are 80-40 ATS since 1997.

It is also significant that Gardner Webb checks in off a loss as it is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a loss. Take the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Arkansas Little Rock +4
Motivated by back-to-back ugly losses on the road, and further fueled by a 5-point loss to Wisconsin-Milwaukee last season, expect the Trojans to bounce back strong at home.

Besides this being a bounce-back spot and a revenge spot for Arkansas Little Rock, this is a letdown spot for the Panthers as they check in off a big upset win over Davidson.

ALR went 7-0 ATS last season when it entered a contest with losses in two of its last three games. It won by an average score of 63.1 to 60.3 in these spots. It is also on a 5-0 ATS run following a loss of more than 20 points, a 14-5 ATS run as an underdog and a 10-1 ATS run versus good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 4.0 points per game or more. Take the points.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Oakland +19.5
Pittsburgh enters this contest overvalued following three dominant performances. One of the reasons it is overvalued is because of its dominance on the glass. However, the Panthers are 0-6 ATS after 3 straight games of outrebounding their opponents by 6 or more boards over the last 2 seasons. Oakland is a good rebounding team that has outrebounded each of its three opponents, so it should be able to keep up on the interior.

The fact Oakland covered the spread in its last game but lost straight up is significant because it is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Kampe off a cover in a game it lost straight up. It is also worth noting that the Golden Grizzlies are 25-14 ATS in all lined road games under coach Kampe and 19-9 ATS under his watch in road games following a road game. Take the points.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Hofstra +12.5
Fueled by back-to-back 29-point losses on the road to start the season, I expect the Hofstra Pride to play with some pride in their first home game.

The Pride are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss, and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Plus, they have had had four days to prepare while South Dakota State has had only two.

The Jackrabbits are being overvalued on the road because they were an NCAA Tournamant team last season. Books know the public will want no part of a Hofstra team that is coming off a poor season and has looked bad in its first two. I'm not hesitating to go against the grain. Take the points.

3* NCAAB SMASH on San Jose State +4.5
San Jose State is improved, which I believe is evident by how competitive it has been in its first two games. It lost them both but by only 4 and 2 points, respectively. Playing two tough games right out of the gate should benefit the Spartans as they go up against a Weber State team that has only participated in a laugher - a 58-point win against Arizona Christian.

It is significant that the Wildcats held their first opponent to just 26.5% from the field because they are 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Rahe in road games after a game where they held an opponent to 33% or worse from the field. They have lost by an average score of 69.7 to 64.0 in this situation.

The Wildcats are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.

These two teams have met each of the past two seasons with San Jose State covering in both. Last season, the 15-point underdog Spartans played the Wildcats to a 2-point game on the road. The year before, the 1-point underdog Spartans defeated the Wildcats 62-46 at home. Take the points.

5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Toledo +14
I really like Toledo in this spot. Consider that it is 6-0 ATS all-time in road games following back-to-back losses of 10 points or more under coach Kowalczyk. It has lost in this situation but only by an average of 11.9 points.

Furthermore, Northern Iowa is 0-8 ATS all-time after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half under coach Jacobson. They have lost in this situation by an average of 2.7 points.

It hasn't been wise to lay double digits with the Panthers as they are just 10-20 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite of 10 points or more. They have won in this situation by only 9.1 points on average. Take the points as the Rockets keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Duke -3
The inexperienced Kentucky Wildcats, who return no starters from last season's championship team, struggled in their opener against Maryland. I expect their struggles to continue as they go up against an experienced Duke squad that brings back four starters.

The Wildcats are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 following an ATS loss, 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games and 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games versus ACC opponents.

In addition, favorites checking in off a home win of 10 points or more in first 5 games of the season, provided they closes out last season with four or more consecutive losses ATS, are 25-8 ATS the last three seasons.

Kentucky has plenty of talent, but it will take time for these young guys to jell. I'll side with experience tonight. Lay the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Delaware -9
This is a game Delaware wants badly. All 5 of its starters return, and those 5 remember the 9-point loss they were handed last season by Penn well. The fact they were defeated by 10 by Penn the year before adds more fuel to the fire. And, the fact the Blue Hens lost their opener assures us they will be even more focused and hungry.

Penn returns just two starters and lost its top 2 scorers from last year's team. It bodes well for us that Penn won its first game because it is just 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a win. It is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record.

Lay the points as Delaware has its revenge.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Manhattan +18.5
Even if George Beamon isn't able to go due to an ankle injury, I still like Manhattan catching a lot of points against a Louisville team that enters the season overvalued because it made a deep run in the NCAA tournament and covered the spread in its last nine games.

The fact the line opened at 16.5 is significant because Manhattan went 6-0 ATS the past two seasons when valued as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18.0 points and only lost these games by an average of 8.3 points. They are also an awesome 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 road games. Take the points.

3* NCAAB SMASH on La Salle -7.5
Delaware returns 5 players from a team that upset LaSalle 70-66 as a 2.5-point home underdog last season and it is catching this many points? The books clearly want the money coming in on Delaware, and here's why.

The Explorers are a completely different team at home where they went 14-3 and carried a 10.9-point average margin of victory a season ago. The Explorers are an awesome 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.

Delaware went just 7-11 on the road last season, and I expect its issues on the road to continue here against a team that will be out to avenge last season's defeat. La Salle returns 4 starters from last year's team, and they have not forgotten about the egg they laid at Delaware.

The Explorers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games while the Blue Hens are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games. Lay the points.

3* NCAAB SMASH on South Alabama +14
South Alabama returns all five starters from a team that was brutally embarrassed by Florida State last season. The Jaguars lost 80-39 to the Seminoles last November, and you better believe they haven't forgotten about it. Driven by that defeat, South Bama will want this game more.

This isn't the same FSU team that defeated the Jags last season as only one starter returns and a half dozen veteran players were lost. The Noles will still be very good defensively, but I expect their offense to struggle in the early going as the new regulars try to get acclimated.

The Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games while the Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Seminoles are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. Take the points.

4* NCAA Championship SMASH on Kansas +6.5
Kentucky has won each of its NCAA Tournament games by at least 8 points and defeated the Jayhawks by 10 points as a 6.5-point favorite earlier this season. Yet, the Wildcats are just laying 6.5 points here. The books clearly want the Kentucky-loving public laying those points because they believe Kansas can take the Wildcats right down to the wire. I agree entirely.

First of all, the Jayhawks shot just 33.9% from the field in the first meeting. They won't shoot that poorly here. They aren't supposed to win. All the pressure is on Kentucky, and that allows Kansas to play free and easy.

The Kansas defense has been unbelievable in this tournament. It has held its five foes to 59.2 points on just 35.5% shooting. Kentucky's "D" hasn't been nearly that good. Its foes have scored 71.6 points on 41.5% shooting in the dance.

Kentucky has been explosive offensively, averaging 84.2 points in the tourney. So the fact odds makers have set a total of 138, 9.5 points less than the number set for the first meeting, tells us they are expecting Kansas' defense to slow down the Wildcats.

The total is significant because Kansas is 11-4 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season. Kentucky is 6-13 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.

It is also significant that Kansas is coming off an upset win because coach Self's teams are 14-4 ATS off an upset win since 1997. His teams have won by an average score of 77.9 to 65.4 in this situation.

It is also worth noting that the Wildcats are only 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. Take the points.

5* Final Four *BEST BET* on Ohio State -2.5
The Buckeyes lost to Kansas in Lawrence by 11 points back in December, but Jared Sullinger didn't play in that contest. On a neutral floor and with Sullinger in the lineup, I fully expect the Buckeyes to have their revenge.

Consider that Ohio State is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 road/neutral court games when out for revenge for a same season loss. The Buckeyes are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. The Jayhawks, meanwhile, are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Big Ten.

The fact Kansas enters off a cover actually bodes well for the Buckeyes. That's because KU is 5-12 ATS after a game in which it covered the spread this season, including 0-4 ATS in its last 4 in this situation.

Kansas has a few nice weapons (Thomas Robinson, Tyshawn Taylor, Elijah Johnson) but Ohio State has more guys (Jared Sullinger, Deshaun Thomas, William Buford and Aaron Craft) that are capable of putting the team on their back. I expect Craft's defense on Taylor to be the key to a Buckeyes win and cover.

3* Final Four SMASH on Louisville +9
Louisville played Kentucky to a 7-point game Dec. 31 while holding the Wildcats to a season-low 29.8 percent shooting. Kentucky is a better team than it was then, but so is Louisville.

In that contest, the Cards hounded the Kentucky guards and forced them into 21 turnovers. I expect Louisville's pressure defense to once again give the Wildcats problems.

Kentucky was dominant on the glass in the first meeting but the Cards still managed to cover the spread. In fact, they are 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game - this season.

Louisville is also 6-0 ATS in road/neutral floor games against non-conference foes this season and 8-0 ATS in all tournament games this season.

It is also worth noting that Louisville is 34-15 ATS all-time under coach Pitino when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent.

All the pressure is on Kentucky here, and the Cards will draw plenty of confidence from having played the Wildcats tough earlier this season. We'll take the points.

4* NIT SMASH on Massachusetts +2.5
UMass is being undervalued here. The Minutemen have been underdogs in 5 straight games and are 4-1 in those contests with the only defeat being a half-point ATS loss to St. Bonaventure.

They have upset wins on the road over Mississippi State, Seton Hall and Drexel in this tournament. That resume is more impressive than the one Stanford enters with - home wins over Cleveland State, Illinois State and Nevada.

Stanford has almost been a dead fade when odds makers have projected them to be in a close game. Consider that the Cardinal are only 4-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. They have lost these contests by an average of 3.4 points. The Cardinal are also 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 20 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS victory.

The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. We'll take UMass.

4* Elite 8 SMASH on Baylor +8
Baylor has been a tremendous investment in the underdog role under coach Drew at 70-51 ATS. Look for the Baylor Bears to keep this one within the number Sunday.

The value clearly lies with Baylor here as it enters off a hard-fought win over Xavier in which it didn't cover the spread. Kentucky, meanwhile, has rolled in back-to-back wins and covers over Iowa State and Indiana. Those performances are sure to get the attention of the public and odds makers are well aware of that fact.

One thing you haven't wanted to do is go against Baylor following an ATS loss. That's because the Bears are on a 5-0 ATS run in this situation and have won these contests by an average 14.8 points. The Bears are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as an underdog.

The Wildcats, meanwhile, are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite and just 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.

Baylor has the size and athleticism to match up with Kentucky. Plus, it has been unfazed when playing in neutral court/road games this season, posting a 16-4 record. Bet Baylor.

3* Elite 8 SMASH on Syracuse +3
The value clearly lies with Syracuse here. The Orange barely escaped Wisconsin while the Buckeyes won rather easily against Cincinnati. Naturally, the public is jumping on the Buckeyes following that performance. We won't do the same.

First of all, Ohio State split with Wisconsin this season, losing by 3 points and winning by 6. With this in mind, we can make the claim that the Buckeyes aren't much better than the Badgers.

Secondly, Wisconsin needed 14 3-point makes to stick with the Orange. I don't see Ohio State making half that many. The Buckeyes only average 6 per game on 34.8% shooting. The Orange will make sure Ohio State's front line doesn't beat them, and I don't think the Buckeyes can make enough 3's to get the job done.

Syracuse is 25-11 ATS all-time under coach Boeheim as a neutral court underdog or pickem. It has won these games by an average score of 73.4 to 72.5.

The Orange are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less while the Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Lastly, the Buckeyes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. We'll take the points.

4* Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Florida -1
One thing you don't want to make a habit of is going against the Gators when odds makers anticipate a close game. That's because they are 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 71.9 to 66.2.

Louisville plays good defense, but it won't be able to keep Florida from getting open 3-point looks in transition. Florida's guards are just too good. The Gators are among the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, averaging 10 makes per game while shooting them at a 38% clip. I expect Florida's edge from beyond the arc to be the difference here.

The Gators are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Florida.

5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Kansas -8
Odds makers clearly want the money on NC State by installing the red-hot Wolfpack as nearly a double-digit dog. We won't take the bait. Kansas is the more talented team, and it will be very focused here after getting a scare by Purdue. The Jayhawks will draw further motivation from recent shortcomings. It was knocked out of last year's Big Dance by VCU and it hasn't forgotten. I expect that loss to be the driving force before a decisive victory by the Jayhawks tonight.

Taking Kansas following a game in which it failed to cover the spread has produced an 11-4 ATS mark this season. The Jayhawks, who have won by an average score of 72.8 to 60.7 in this situation, are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.

Kansas is also an impressive 18-7 ATS in its last 25 road/neutral floor games after a close win by 3 points or less. It has won by an average score of 78.1 to 64.2 in this situation.

NC State is solid defensively, but KU is 13-6 ATS versus good defensive teams that hold their opponents to 42% shooting or worse this season. The Jayhawks have defeated these clubs by an average score of 74.6 to 57.6.

NC State, meanwhile, is just 4-12 ATS versus very good defensive teams that hold their foes to 39% shooting or worse over the last two seasons. It has lost these contests by an average score of 76.1 to 66.4. Take Kansas and best of luck.

4* Sweet 16 SMASH (TBS) on Ohio +10.5
UNC is likely Kendall Marshall, and he won't be himself even if he does try to play. Without Marshall, the Tar Heels find themselves at a disadvantage against an Ohio squad that is forcing more than 17 turnovers a game and ranks fourth in the country in steals (9.3). Without Marshall, I expect UNC to have some turnover issues tonight.

Ohio has been taking excellent care of the rock and is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court contests after 3 straight games of committing 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

It is also worth noting that the Bobcats are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.

The Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Mid-American Conference.

Ohio played Louisville to a 5-point on the road earlier this season and has upset a pair of power conference teams in the first two rounds of this tournament.

UNC has the superior front court, but I expect those players won't have as many good looks without Marshall at full strength. We'll take the points.

5* Sweet 16 *BEST BET* (TBS) on Marquette -2
After back-to-back blowout wins over double-digit seeds, I expect Florida to be in for a rude awakening as it takes a major step up in competition tonight. The Golden Eagles were tested by Murray State last time out, so I fully expect them to be on their game.

With the total currently at 146.5, odds makers are expecting some points to be scored in this contest. History suggests this high number indicates the odds are in Marquette's favor. Consider that Marquette is 8-0 ATS in neutral court games when the total is 145 to 149.5 since 1997. It has won these games by an average score of 78.9 to 64.1.

In addition, the Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Florida isn't the same team without Chandler Parsons, and that has been apparent all season. I'm not going to let what they've done against two inferior teams in the Big Dance change my opinion.

The Golden Eagles are on a mission to get to the Elite 8 after losing in the Sweet 16 last year. We'll lay the points.

4* Sweet 16 SMASH (CBS) on Cincinnati +7.5
It's hard not to like the Bearcats catching this many points considering they are 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS when playing away from home this season. Ohio State is just 11-5 SU and 8-8 ATS in road/neutral court games on the year.

The Bearcats have been a terrific investment down the stretch at 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 9-1 ATS in road/neutral floor games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Cats have won these contests by an average score of 66.4 to 64.2.

It is also worth noting that the Buckeyes are only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

Ohio State was pushed to the limit by Gonzaga, and now it is up against an even more physical team. These points should come in handy in what is expected to be a defensive-minded game.

4* Sweet 16 SMASH (TBS) on Louisville +5
I think Louisville is getting too many points given how well it is playing and with one of the best in the business on the sidelines (coach Pitino).

Michigan State only defeated St. Louis by 4 points despite shooting 54.3% from the field and holding the Billikens to 35.3% shooting. That's not a good sign.

Louisville is 11-4 ATS when playing away from home against a team with a winning record this season. It has won these games by an average score of 63.9 to 62.3. It is also 6-0 ATS in all tournament games this season, winning them by an average score of 64.5 to 56.3.

The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Spartans are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite. We'll take the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on Middle Tennessee State -3
MTSU has won 13 in a row at home with all of those wins coming by at least 3 points. The fact that this is just MTSU's 2nd game in 8 days also bodes well for us because the Blue Raiders are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. They have won by an average score of 76.5 to 58.5 in this situation.

It also can't be ignored that MTSU is a perfect 8-0 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record. It has defeated these foes by an average score of 70.9 to 61.8.

The Blue Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. We'll back them laying a small number tonight.

4* NIT SMASH (ESPN) on Drexel -6.5
After pulling off a pair of road upsets over Mississippi State and Seton Hall, I expect UMass to finally meet its match. Drexel is a perfect 15-0 at home this season where it is winning by an average of 13.2 points.

UMass is solid defensively, holding its foes to 40.8% shooting for the season. However, Drexel is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when matched up against good defensive teams (holding opponents to 42% shooting or worse) after 15-plus games. The Dragons have defeated these teams by an average score of 70.0 to 54.6.

In addition, Drexel is 6-0 ATS this season versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 points or more per game after 15-plus games. It has defeated these teams by an average score of 65.4 to 55.4.

It is also worth mentioning that UMass is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Kellogg when checking into a matchup after covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. The Minutemen have lost these contests by an average score of 76.0 to 63.5. We'll lay the points.

4* NIT *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Middle Tennessee State +5
MTSU wants this game badly as it has lost 8 in a row to Tennessee dating back to 1999. The Blue Raiders are a very good basketball team, and I like their chances of pulling off the upset.

These two played 5 like opponents this season. MTSU went 5-1 in those games while Tennessee went 4-3. In looking at like matchups against Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, there is reason to believe the Blue Raiders can cover this number.

MTSU only lost at Vandy by 7 while Tennessee lost at Vandy by 18. Also, MTSU defeated Ole Miss by 12 at home. Tennessee defeated Ole Miss by just 13 at home.

The Blue Raiders are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record. They have won these games by an average score of 70.9 to 61.5. We'll take the points.

4* Big Dance Sunday Night SMASH (TRU) on Xavier -3.5
It's going to be very tough for Lehigh to bounce back with the intensity it needs to beat Xavier following such an emotionally draining victory over Duke.

Xavier is way more talented than your average 10-seed. It was highly ranked early in the season and likely would have remained that way throughout had it not been for "the brawl", which sent it into a momentary tailspin. The Musketeers did not like going home early last year after making at least the Sweet 16 the 3 previous years. With Duke out of the picture, the Musketeers could be looking at another lengthy run.

Xavier is an awesome 15-4-2 ATS in its last 21 NCAA tournament games, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. We'll lay the points.

4* Big Dance SMASH on Georgetown -4
A nice little run at the end of the season got NC State into the dance. Its momentum carried it to a win over San Diego State Friday, but I expect its run to end here.

This Georgetown team is one of the best in the country. It was very focused in its first game against Belmont as it was determined not to make another early exit. I think we'll see that same focus and intensity from the Hoyas here.

Georgetown has been a handful in non-conference play. It is 7-0 ATS in non-conference games this season, winning them by an average score of 76.7 to 57.7. The Hoyas have especially been a strong investment when matched up against the ACC, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the conference. Take Georgetown.

5* Round of 32 Game of the Year on Indiana -6
It's been a great two-year run for VCU, but I believe it comes to an end here. The Rams have cleaned up against teams from mid-major conferences but are just 1-3 against schools from power conferences. They have losses of 15, 13 and 8 points to Seton Hall, Georgia Tech and Alabama and Indiana is far superior to these three.

Teams in the Big Ten have had some success against the Hoosiers but nobody else has this season. With Indiana's round of 64 win, it improved to 14-0 against non-conference foes. 8 of those games have been lined and the Hoosiers are 8-0 ATS in those games, winning them by an average score of 83.7 to 59.9. 3 of these wins have come against NC State, Kentucky and Notre Dame. Lay the points.

4* NCAA Tournament SMASH on Vandy -1
Vandy is one of the most experienced teams in the tournament, and it is playing with a ton of confidence right now. The Commodores, who upset Kentucky in the SEC tourney final, look like a team capable of getting to the Final Four.

These two played one like opponent this season - Marquette. Vandy won at Marquette by 17 while Wiscy lost there by 7. While one game doesn't mean everything, it also doesn't mean nothing. I think Vandy is the better team and will prove that today.

The Commodores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Vandy is also 9-0 ATS when playing away from home versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game this season, 6-0 ATS when playing away from home versus very good defensive teams with a shooting pct defense of <=39% this season, 6-0 ATS when playing away from home versus poor passing teams averaging <=12 assists/game this season and 6-0 ATS when playing away from home after holding an opponent to 25 points or less in the first half last game this season. Take Vandy.

4* Friday Night Big Dance *TOP DOG* on Xavier +2.5
Xavier underachieved this season as a brawl with Cincinnati sent it into a tailspin. Notre Dame, meanwhile overachieved, exceeding expectations without Tim Abromaitis in the lineup.

However, the Musketeers have gotten their mojo back. They have won three of their last four with a big win over a very good St. Louis team in the Atlantic 10 tournament.

Notre Dame has started to come back down to earth with losses in 3 of its last 5 games and the two wins against South Florida and Providence in this stretch were rather unimpressive.

These two played 3 like opponents this season and Xavier went 2-1 versus those teams while Notre Dame went 0-3. The Musketeers defeated Cincy and Georgia by double digits but lost to Gonzaga. The Irish lost to Cincy and Gonzaga by double digits and Georgia by 4 points.

It's hard not to like the Musketeers catching points in the Big Dance considering they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. They are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 NCAA Tournament games overall.

The Fighting Irish are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games and 0-6 ATS in non-conference games this season. They are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. Take Xavier.

4* Cinderella SMASH on NC State -2
This is not the same San Diego State squad that won two games in last year's Big Dance and this line certainly reflects that.

NC State is peaking at just the right time. It enters the Dance having won 4 of its last 5 with the lone loss being a 2-point setback to No. 1 seed North Carolina. SDSU struggled against the top teams in the MWC, losing its last 3 against New Mexico (twice) and UNLV and wasn't overly impressive in its non-conference slate. It lost to Baylor by 10 points and lost to Creighton by 2 points and was fortunate to beat USC, Long Beach State and Arizona. NC State played a tougher non-conference schedule and played in a better league - two things that will benefit it in this game.

The fact NC State finished strong bodes well for us because it is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Gottfried when playing away from home following 2 wins in its last 3 games. The Wolfpack have won by an average score of 73.7 to 62.0 in this situation.

It's also worth noting that NC State is 9-2 ATS when playing away from home against a team with a winning record this season. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games, and they get the call here.

5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round Game of the Year on Cincinnati -2
This Cincinnati team, which defeated Mizzou 78-63 in the first round last year, has the ability to go deep in this tournament. It would be a major upset in my mind if this young, inexperienced Texas squad moved on here, and I don't see it happening.

Texas is just 5-10 when playing away from home this season while Cincy is 9-6. The Bearcats also enter the dance playing better basketball with 9 wins in their last 12 games.

The Bearcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big 12. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The fact Texas doesn't force many turnovers weighs heavily in our favor. That's because Cincy is 8-2 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams that force <=14 turnovers/game this season. Take the Bearcats.

5* Big Dance *BEST BET* on Wichita State -6
With VCU's 2011 Cinderella run fresh in everyone's mind, odds makers are trying to take advantage. They are begging bettors to take the points with last year's Final Four participant, but we won't fall for the trap.

This is not the same VCU team. The Rams returned just 2 starters from that squad, which is a big reason why they were crushed by double digits in road/neutral court games against non-tournament teams Seton Hall and Georgia Tech.

Wichita State has the look of a very dangerous team and should meet the challenge here. It is 9-2 ATS when playing away from home 15 or more games into the season versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. The Shockers are defeating these teams by an average of 11.0 points.

The Shockers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as a favorite and 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Wichita State defeated No. 8 seed Creighton by 21 on the road. It also defeated No. 13 seed Dayton by 17 on the road. The Shockers also have an impressive 19-point win over No. 6 seed UNLV. Wichita State is capable of a blowout here. We'll lay the points.

4* Early Blowout on Vandy -5
Harvard, which is making its first appearance in the Big Dance since 1946, is not accustomed to playing in such big games. Vandy, meanwhile, is making its 3rd straight NCAA tournament appearance and fifth in six years.

The Commodores enter the Dance win tons of momentum and confidence after defeating No. 1 overall seed Kentucky in the SEC tournament final, and there's no way they'll get caught overlooking Harvard after getting bounced in the first round the last two years.

The Crimson are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 0-7 ATS when playing away from home in March the last 3 seasons. Harvard is also 0-8 ATS all-time under coach Amaker when playing with 7 or more days' rest.

Vandy is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. It is also 8-0 ATS when playing away from home versus good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less this season and 6-0 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams that have outrebounded their opponents by 4 or more per game this season.

The Crimson are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Lay the points.

4* Cinderella SMASH on Long Beach State +4
Long Beach State has the ability to make a Cinderella run in this year's Big Dance and that run starts with a win over New Mexico.

The 49ers have excelled against excellent teams that shoot 45% or better and hold their opponents to 42% or less from the floor. They are 8-1 ATS versus these teams this season, defeating them by an average score of 72.6 to 64.7. It is also worth noting that they are 21-9 ATS all-time under coach Monson versus such teams.

Long Beach State showed it is capable of playing with any team in the country when it played Kansas and North Carolina to within 8 and 6 points respectively on the road earlier this season. New Mexico played in a good league but hasn't been tested the same way

The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog. We'll take the points as Long Beach State has a terrific opportunity to win this one outright.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Oral Roberts -5.5
Oral Roberts is 15-0 at home where it has won by an average of 10.9 points. The Golden Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. Nevada is no slouch but will certainly have its work cut out for itself in ORU's gym.

In addition, common opponent analysis supports this play. These two have played three like opponents since the beginning of last season. Oral Roberts is 4-0 versus those foes while Nevada is 0-3.

This season, ORU defeated Missouri State at home by 5 points while Nevada lost to Missouri State at home by 22. Last season, Nevada lost by double digits to Pacific and South Dakota State - teams ORU defeated by 16, 8 and 4 points respectively (played SDSU twice). We'll lay the points.

4* NCAAB SMASH (ESPN2) on Bucknell +8.5
This is a letdown spot for Arizona, which can't be excited in the least about playing in the NIT after making a deep NCAA tournament run last year. Bucknell, meanwhile, will relish this opportunity to face off against a top-tier program, especially since it was a major disappointment against Connecticut in the first round of last year's NCAA tourney. With 4 starters back from that team, you can bet the Bison will be hungry to show the country on national TV that they can compete with the big boys.

Arizona won't be at full strength after losing Josiah Turner due to a suspension. Plus, Jordin Mayes, who is dealing with a foot injury, isn't 100 percent.

Arizona is just 2-9 ATS in home games after a game where it's failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. We'll bet Bucknell.

4* NCAAB SMASH on Akron +6.5
We find Northwestern in a letdown spot this evening as it had its sights set on the NCAA tournament. It will be very difficult for the Wildcats to get up for this game as they clearly don't want to be playing in the NIT.

Akron wanted to be dancing as well, but defeating a team from a power conference would be a nice consolation prize.

The Zips have been a terrific investment at 31-12 ATS in their last 43 games overall. They are 38-16-5 ATS in their last 59 games following a loss, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record.

I just don't think Northwestern's heart will be in this one tonight. Take Akron.

5* Big Ten Championship *BEST BET* (CBS) on Michigan State +2
This is the matchup the Spartans were hoping for when they lost to Ohio State by 2 points at home in the regular season finale and lost an outright Big Ten title along with it.

Big Ten player of the year Draymond Green certainly wants this game. "It's just another opportunity for us. We had two chances to win the Big Ten outright, we didn't do it," Green said. "You can't really make up for it, but it's an opportunity to feel better about it if we get this conference tournament championship. It's just another way to leave that footprint, leave your legacy."

Green also knows a win could give his team a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.

One thing you don't want to make a habit of is going against the Spartans as a neutral court dog. That's because they are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 as a neutral court underdog or pickem. They are also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pickem.

Michigan State has also been strong in revenge spots. It is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 69.5 to 62.0 in this situation. It is also 11-3 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent, winning in this situation by an average score of 70.9 to 63.5.

The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take Michigan State.

4* SEC Tourney SMASH on Florida +9.5
Motivated by a pair of double-digit losses to Kentucky during the season, and further fueled by an opportunity to improve their tournament seeding, expect the Gators to give the Wildcats a game.

The Gators are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. The Wildcats are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

Odds makers have drastically overvalued the Wildcats following virtually every point-spread loss it has endured this season, and that remains the case here. UK is just 4-13 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season. We'll take the points as this trend holds strong.

5* ACC Game of the Year on NC State +9
Motivated by a pair of double-digit losses to the Heels in the two regular season meetings and further fueled by an opportunity to leave no doubt in the minds of the NCAA selection committee, expect NC State to give UNC all it wants and more here.

The Wolfpack are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a win.

Also, UNC is 0-9 ATS when playing away from home with one or no days' rest over the last 2 seasons. It is actually losing in this situation by an average of 1.9 points.

This game means way more to the Wolfpack. Take the points.

5* Conference Tourney *BEST BET* on Kent State +2
Kent State lost to Akron by 1 point in last year's MAC tourney and it lost both of this year's regular season meetings. Motivated by those setbacks, I expect the Golden Flashes to get the job done this evening.

Revenge has been a strong angle to play with Kent State, considering it is 20-4 ATS in its last 24 games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It has won these games by an average score of 70.7 to 62.2.

The Golden Flashes did not meet expectations this season and will be out for some serious payback here. Take Kent State.

4* Big 12 Tourney SMASH on Baylor +6.5
Motivated by a pair of disappointing performances against Kansas during the regular season, I expect Baylor to take the Jayhawks down to the wire this evening.

The high posted total isn't a good sign for the normally defensively sound Jayhawks as it indicates that the books expect Baylor to perform better at the offensive end than it did in the regular season meetings. Consider that Kansas is just 1-8 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. It has only won by an average of 2.4 points in these games.

The Bears are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as an underdog and 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games away from home when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more to a foe. Take Baylor.

5* NCAAB Game of the Year on Cal -4
Back-to-back losses to Colorado and Stanford cost Cal a Pac-12 title, and I have no doubt that simple fact isn't sitting well with the Bears. Motivated by those defeats, I expect Cal to be on a mission in the Pac-12 tourney. They'll especially take great pride in paying back rival Stanford.

Cal had defeated Stanford by double digits in back-to-back meetings and by at least 7 points in 5 of 6 meetings before enduring a 5-point loss to the Cardinal on March 4. The fact Stanford was plus-12 from 3-point range in that game was a fluke considering it hadn't been more than plus-9 in any of the previous five meetings. It was no more than plus-six in four of those.

Cal is the better team, and I don't expect it to allow Stanford to beat it with the long ball again.

Cal is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 when playing away from home after 2 or more consecutive losses, 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games away from home off 2 straight losses to conference rivals and 6-0 ATS when playing away from home after having lost 2 of its last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

In addition, Stanford is 0-6 ATS after covering the number in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.

Lastly, the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. We'll take Cal.

4* MWC Tourney SMASH on Air Force +14.5
After getting massacred by 39 and 30 in the two regular season meetings, Air Force will be out to save face here. New Mexico, meanwhile, won't be able to help overlooking the Falcons.

Recent history suggests New Mexico isn't likely to put another beating on Air Force. Prior to this season, New Mexico hadn't won by more than 14 points in 4 straight meetings.

In addition, Air Force is 31-13 ATS in its last 44 games away from home when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent. It's only losing by an average of 11.1 points in this situation.

Also, the fact New Mexico enters off 3 straight overs bodes well for us. Consider that the Lobos are 0-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons, only winning by an average of 7.8 points in this situation. Take Air Force.

5* C-USA Tournament Game of the Year on UTEP -3.5
UTEP finished the regular season with 3 straight losses while Houston finished with 3 straight wins, but I'm confident the Miners are the better team.

UTEP crushed Houston by 20 points at home on Jan. 7 before losing to the Cougars on the road in OT on Jan. 28. I love the Miners' chances of covering this number on a neutral floor.

It is worth our while to consider that plays against underdogs that have successfully covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, with a winning percentage between 45-55% on the season, are 40-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. These dogs have lost by an average of 10.1 points in this situation.

The Miners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 13-4 ATS after being held to 65 points or less in 3 straight games. Lay the points.

5* Conference Tourney *BEST BET* on George Washington +10
Motivated by back-to-back losses, including a 16-point defeat at Dayton last game, expect George Washington to give the Flyers a run for their money tonight.

One thing that has been an absolute must is fading Archie Miller's Dayton squad following a win or 15 or more. Doing so has produced a perfect 6-0 ATS mark all-time, and Dayton has lost these 6 contests by an average of 10.0 points.

In addition, GW is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It's only losing by an average of 0.1 points in this situation. GW is also 14-4 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss in which it was held to fewer than 60 points. We'll take the points.

3* Conference Tourney SMASH on Maryland Eastern Shore +11
Maryland Eastern Shore fits into a system that's too good to ignore. Consider that Neutral court underdogs off a home loss of 10 points or more and matched up against an opponent off 2 or more consecutive road wins are 25-6 ATS since 1997. That's an 80.6% success rate. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of 1.5. points. We'll play by the numbers with MD Eastern Shore this afternoon.

4* Conference Tourney SMASH on Western Illinois +8
Western Illinois won't be lacking any confidence tonight against an Oral Roberts squad it played to a 1-point game earlier this season.

The Golden Eagles have been overvalued all season, especially against team who average 33 of fewer rebounds per contest. They are 0-7 ATS vs. these teams and have only defeated them by an average of 6.3 points. It is also worth noting that the Golden Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Summit League and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

The Leathernecks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. The Leathernecks are also 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take the points as Western Illinois keeps this one closer than the odds makers think.

4* SEC SMASH (CBS) on Florida +5.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by an embarrassing 20-point loss at Kentucky last month, expect Florida to bounce back strong at home, where it is 16-1 on the season.

One thing you don't want to make a habit of is fading the Gators in the underdog role. That's because they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series, and the Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings at Florida.

Kentucky is just 1-7 ATS when matched up against good shooting teams (making >=45% of their shots) this season, and 1-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games this season.

Also, Florida is 19-8 ATS under coach Donovan after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. It has won by an average score of 78 to 63.7 in this situation. The value clearly lies with Florida. Take the points.

4* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Hawaii +1
This is a tough scheduling spot for Utah State, which makes the long trip to Hawaii after just playing at San Jose State Thursday. The Warriors, meanwhile, who will be hungry to end a 4-game skid, have been at home for nearly a week. Expect a jetlagged performance from the Aggies tonight.

Utah State won at San Jose State, who is just 1-12 in the WAC, but it still can't be trusted away from home. Prior to that win, the Aggies had lost 4 in a row and 8 of 9 on the road.

Prior to Thursday's disappointing performance versus Idaho, Hawaii had won 3 of 4 at home, including an impressive 4-point victory over New Mexico State, who has a pair of double-digit wins over Utah State this season.

The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the Aggies are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Hawaii. Also, the Warriors are a 100% perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Hawaii.

4* NCAAB Upset Special on Air Force +2.5
Motivated by an embarrassing 30-point loss to New Mexico and an 18-point defeat in the season's first meeting with Colorado State, expect Air Force to bounce back strong on senior day.

Air Force is a far more solid team than its record might lead you to believe. It has a home over San Diego State and its losses to Colorado, TCU and UNLV have come by 3 points or less.

Colorado State has been deadly at home but a pushover on the road. The Rams have lost 6 in a row away from home by an average of 14 points.

Plays on home teams as an underdog or pickem that are good defensively (allowing <=64 points/game on the season) after a blowout loss by 30 points or more are 26-5 ATS since 1997, including 2-0 ATS this season. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of .4 points. With this in mind, I love Air Force's chances of pulling off the upset.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Marshall -2.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and a 4-point loss at So. Miss in the season's first meeting, expect Marshall to bounce back strong today.

The consecutive losses are significant because coach Herrion's squads are 8-0 ATS off 2 straight losses against conference rivals. They have won these games by an average score of 76.3 to 65.8.

Marshall is a better team than it has shown in C-USA play. We're talking about a team that played No. 2 Syracuse to a 6-point game on the road. The Thundering Herd are 12-4 at home on the season, and I expect them to show what they are truly capable of this afternoon.

So. Miss has lost 3 straight on the road to UTEP, Houston and UAB. If it can't beat UTEP or Houston on the road, it's going to have a very tough time against the Herd here.

The Golden Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 0-4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take Marshall.

5* Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Missouri State -2
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats and a pair of losses to Evansville, Missouri State will be lacking no motivation when it hits the floor tonight.

I have no doubt the value lies with Missouri State here and history is on our side. The fact Missouri State has endured 6 straight ATS defeats and Evansville has rattled off 4 straight ATS wins bodes extremely well for us. In fact, plays on favorites that have failed to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, provided they are up against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, are 49-23 (68.1%) ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 11.0 points.

Neither team has played since Feb. 25 but the extra time off figures to be more detrimental to the Purple Aces, who are just 2-10 ATS under coach Simmons when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. They have lost by an average of 9.9 points in this situation.

I really believe Missouri State is the better team, and I can't see it losing 3 times to Evansville in the same season. Lay the number.

4* Big East SMASH on Notre Dame -10.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Notre Dame to bounce back strong at home on senior night.

The Irish are 15-1 at home on the season with an average winning margin of 16.1 points in those games. They have won 5 straight at home in Big East play against the likes of Syracuse, Marquette, DePaul, Rutgers and West Virginia by an average of 15.8 points.

Providence has lost 7 of its last 8 on the road against Big East foes with that lone win coming against last place DePaul. These 7 losses have come by an average of 12.6 points.

Also, the Irish have won 8 in a row against Providence with 2 of the last 3 wins coming by 15 points or more.

Notre Dame needs a victory to assure itself a double-bye in the conference tournament, and it won't hold anything back.

5* Pac-12 Game of the Week on USC +7.5
Motivated by 7 consecutive losses and an embarrassing 28-point defeat at Washington last month, expect USC to save face by giving the Huskies a game.

Washington has been far from dominant on the road. The Huskies are 5-6 when playing away from home this season and none of those 5 wins have come by more than 6 points.

The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. We'll take the points.

4* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on San Jose State +4
Utah State won the first meeting at home handily, but I expect things to go much different for the Aggies on the road this evening.

Utah State is just 2-10 when playing away from home this season. It has lost 8 of its last 9 on the road with the lone win coming by just 4 points. The 8 losses have come by an average of 6.8 points.

The Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss. We'll take the points.

4* Big East SMASH (ESPN2) on Cincinnati -1
Motivated by a 1-point loss at South Florida and with an embarrassing 17-point loss at Marquette earlier this month also stoking the fire, expect Cincy to come out on top tonight.

I believe odds makers are tipping their hand here by favoring unranked Cincy against 7th-ranked Marquette. The Bearcats have been terrific at home all season. They have won their last 4 at home by an average of 8.0 points.

If you're going to pick a day to back the Bearcats, Wednesday has been the day. Under coach Cronin, Cincy is 31-13 ATS in Wednesday games, winning them by an average score of 69.1 to 63.0. This stat is too good to ignore and says a lot about the early week preparation of Cronin.

It's also worth noting that the Bearcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take Cincy.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Kent State -2
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and further fueled by a 22-point beatdown at Ohio last month, expect Kent State to roll at home this evening.

One thing Kent State doesn't do is lose to the same team twice in the same season. In fact, it is 19-3 ATS in its last 22 games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. It's winning by an average of 9.2 points in this situation.

In addition, the Golden Flashes has been a tremendous investment as small home chalk, going 39-16-2 ATS in their last 57 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The Bobcats are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pickem. Take Kent State.

4* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Wyoming -7
This is a sandwich game for TCU, which is coming off a big win over New Mexico and has San Diego State on deck. Wyoming, who lost by 6 at TCU on Feb. 1, will be out for some serious revenge on senior night.

The Cowboys are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. They are also 7-0 ATS in home games after being held to 65 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

In addition, the Cowboys are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the points.

5* Big Ten *BEST BET* on Minnesota +9.5
Hungry to end a 5-game slide, and further fueled by a 7-point loss at Wisconsin on Feb. 9, expect Minnesota to give the Badgers a game this evening.

Wisconsin, which has split the last 6 meetings with Minnesota, hasn't defeated the Gophers by more than 9 points since 2008. It is clearly being overvalued here because it is coming off a big win over Ohio State. That win is significant because the Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a victory. The Badgers are also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.

The fact Minnesota enters off an embarrassing 19-point loss to Indiana also bodes well for us. Consider that plays on road teams as an underdog or pickem off an embarrassing home loss in which they were held to 60 points or less, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, are 75-43 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have been underdogs of 9.2 points on average but have only lost by an average of 7.3. We'll take the points.

5* Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma State +9
Kansas is in for a letdown tonight after coming back from a 19-point second half deficit to beat Missouri 87-86 in overtime Saturday to clinch at least a share of its eighth consecutive Big 12 regular-season title.

"I hate nothing more than losing to Missouri, but to me it wasn't about the last time we played," coach Bill Self said. "To me it was about this team winning its eighth straight championship. I'm not the most emotional guy, but that was as good as it gets."

It sounds to me like Self already feels like his team has accomplished something. The Jayhawks likely won't have the focus or drive to come away with a victory tonight. Even if they do show up, the Cowboys have an excellent opportunity to keep it within the number.

Oklahoma State is 11-3 at home this season with those 3 losses coming by just 6, 8 and 4 points respectively.

The Cowboys lost the season's first meeting by 13 at Kansas but are 7-0 ATS this season when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. They have won by an average of 1.4 points in these games.

The Jayhawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, they are 0-7 ATS all-time under coach Self when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) after 15 or more games and 0-6 ATS all-time under Self in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game after 15+ games.

Kansas hasn't been able to expose teams that don't get a great deal of points off assists, which bodes well for us. It's also in our favor that Oklahoma State doesn't turn the ball over very much. Under coach Travis Ford, the Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in home games after 4 straight games of committing 14 or less turnovers. We'll take the points.

4* Big Ten SMASH on Illinois -5.5
Odds makers are begging for action on Iowa with this line but we won't oblige them. The Hawks have won back-to-back games at home while Illinois has dropped 6 in a row, but I fully expect the Illini to get off the snide this evening.

Iowa has not been the same team on the road, where it has dropped 5 in a row by an average of 15.8 points. And, the Hawkeyes have had absolutely no luck in Champagne, where they have lost 10 straight by an average of 13 points.

Illinois holds home wins over Ohio State and Michigan State so there's no questioning the potential of this team. I expect it all to come together for the Illini in this motivated spot.

5* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Colorado +3
Motivated by an embarrassing 24-point loss to Stanford, which snapped a 10-game home winning streak, and further fueled by 7-point loss at Cal last month, expect Colorado to take care of business at home this evening.

Consider that all teams when the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss by 15 points or more, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, are 71-33 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 3.8 points. It is also worth noting that this system is 5-1 ATS on the season.

The Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Cal and have won 3 straight at home in the series by an average of 17.7 points. Bet the Buffs.

4* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Cal State Northridge +6
Off back-to-back losses in which they were held to 49 and 61 points, and out to avenge an earlier loss to Irvine, expect the Matadors to leave it all on the floor tonight.

Northridge is a perfect 6-0 ATS after being held to 65 points or less in consecutive games the last 2 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 75.4 to 63.9 in this situation. In addition, the Matadors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Anteaters are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.

Prior to this season's first meeting when the Matadors shot just 34% and lost by 9, they had either won or lost by 5 points or less in 4 straight matchups with the Anteaters. We'll take the points.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Illinois-Chicago +3
Illinois Chicago is coming off back-to-back losses SU and ATS but that won't keep me away. You see, the Flames are a perfect 7-0 ATS after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is also worth noting that they are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less.

Illinois Chicago defeated Green Bay by 2 points at home last season as a 2-point dog and it won by 7 at home in 2010 as a 4-point dog. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points.