Sports Picks & Predictions

4* Major NCAA Tourney Friday Blowout on Michigan State -13
This is the time of year when Michigan State is at its best, and with all the upsets and close games on day one, you can bet Tom Izzo will have his team

5* Friday NCAA Tourney *BEST BET* on Purdue -4
Purdue has heard a lot of analysts putting it on upset alert now that Robbie Hummel has been lost for the season, but I expect the Boilermakers to be motivated enough to shut all the doubters up in this one. Purdue will be further motivated by laying an egg against Minnesota in its last game. Siena has played well in the NCAA Tourney in recent years, but I'm not sold on this year's team. Siena was crushed by N. Iowa by 17 points and by Butler by 17 points as well, and I can assure you that this Purdue team is every bit as good as those two teams even without Hummel. It doesn't happen often so there isn't much data here, but it is still worth noting that the Boilermakers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss of more than 20 points. They are also 12-4 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more under coach Painter. But here's the clincher: plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have failed to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 80%) are 19-2 ATS the last 3 seasons, including a perfect 1-0 ATS this season. Lay the points.

5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round Game of the Year on Tennessee -3
In Tennessee, we have a team that has wins over both Kansas and Kentucky so we certainly know what it is capable of when at the top of its game. After getting completely embarrassed by Kentucky in the SEC tourney, I expect to see an extremely hungry and focused team. Right away, I love the fact that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (line opened at -4), a team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a loss to a conference rival, are 50-21 ATS since 1997, including 22-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. I also like that the Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. poor free throw shooting teams making 63% of their attempts or worse over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 83.9 to 70.4. I'll take a motivated Tennessee squad laying a small number in round one.

3* 1st Round Upset Alert on Washington +2
Look for No. 11 seed Washington to knock off No. 6 seed Marquette here. Washington enters the Tourney with tons of momentum, having won 7 straight. The impressive thing is that each of its last 6 wins came away from home. Marquette is not a team that is going to blow out many teams. It played a lot of close games this season. With that in mind, it's hard to justify laying points with the Golden Eagles. In fact, they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Expect Quincy Pondexter to be the best player on the floor and for Washington to get the "W".

4* Major Early Annihilator on Florida +5
Florida is excited to be back in the Big Dance and I expect the Gators to make the most of it. I know Florida had some pretty good players when it won back-to-back titles, but coach Billy Donovan deserves plenty of credit as well. He knows the type of preparation it takes to win Tourney games. He is a big reason why the Gators are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games, including 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. As a matter of fact, BYU is on a 0-7 ATS slide in all post-season tournament games played away from home, losing these games by an average score of 64.4 to 74.2. Look for Florida to have an excellent opportunity to pull off the upset in this one.

3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Boston +7.5
Oregon State is a great against the spread team, and we've cashed in on the Beavers plenty this season, but now is the time to go against them. Oregon State really slows down the pace of the game. As a result, it is only averaging 59.7 ppg on the season. In other words, it's difficult to win by large margins when playing this way. So it should come as no surprise that the Beavers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. We saw Boston play K-State to a 10-point game earlier this season, and it has defeated a very good Northeastern team, so there is some talent on this squad. The Terriers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. We'll take the points tonight.

3* NIT Annihilator (ESPNU) on Stony Brook +7
Illinois saw its bubble burst when it lost to Ohio State in double-OT in the Big Ten tourney. This Illinois team looked like a lock for the Big Dance until it lost 6 of its last 8 games. No matter how hard Bruce Weber might try, it's going to be hard for him to get his team motivated to play this basketball game. In addition, I'm always leery of Illinois laying points since it is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games as a favorite. I'm especially leery when we're talking this many points as the Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, Illinois is only 2-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. Stony Brook had its sights set on the NCAA Tourney as well, but it will have no trouble getting up for a home game against a major conference team. We'll take the points.

3* NIT Opening Round SMASH (ESPN) on UNC -8.5
William & Mary has had some very good wins this season, but I don't like its chances tonight. The Tar Heels are way more athletic with a lot more size. They should dominate the boards and really hurt the Tribe in the paint as well as in transition. It's been an embarrassing season for UNC, and the last thing they want is to take an embarrassing loss to school like W&M on national TV. It's been a struggle for Roy Williams this season, but he should have his boys ready to play tonight. The fact that W&M has some quality wins will only make it easier for Williams to get his boys to take this one seriously. W&M is a team that really depends on the 3-point shot, but I don't anticipate the Tribe shooting a high percentage. UNC's quickness in closeouts and their length won't allow W&M to get as many clean looks as they will need. The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the number.

3* Opening Round SMASH (ESPN) on Ark Pine Bluff +4.5
I really can't justify laying the points here when you consider how awful Winthrop is offensively. The Eagles only shoot 38.3% from the floor, and just 25.5% from beyond the arc. Ark Pine Bluff started the season 0-11 as it played 11 straight road games against schools such as UTEP, Arizona State, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Kansas State. These early season losses paid dividends down the stretch when Golden Lions won their conference tournament, and I expect them to pay off in this play-in game as well. Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (Winthrop), poor offensive team scoring 64 or fewer points per game on the season, after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games, are 40-17 ATS since 1997, 24-9 ATS the last 5 seasons and 17-6 ATS the last 3 seasons. The favorite has been favored by 5.3 points on average in these games but is only winning by an average of 0.7 points. Also, plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (APB), after playing a game where both it and its opponents scored 65 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season, are 73-33 ATS the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points with the Golden Lions here.

4* Major Sunday Conference Tourney *BEST BET* (ABC) on Mississippi State +8
According to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi, Mississippi State is still on the first five out list in terms of the NCAA Tourney. While I think the Bulldogs are deserving of a bid, and they certainly feel they have done enough, now is not the time to leave any doubt in the mind of the committee by getting blown out here. Expect Mississippi State, which took Kentucky to OT during the regular season, to give the Wildcats all they want and more again to solidify their spot in the Big Dance. I really like the Bulldogs catching this many points as they are an impressive 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as an underdog. The public is all over Kentucky here after its dominant win Saturday, but now is actually the time to go against the Wildcats as they are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Mississippi State is also 14-3 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77+ points per game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 74.8 to 67.8. I like the experience of the Bulldogs in this big game as well. Take the points.

5* Big 12 Tourney Game of the Year (ESPN) on Kansas State +5.5
Kansas State wants this one bad! The Wildcats gave the Jayhawks all they wanted and more in the season's first meeting, losing by just 2 points in overtime. The second meeting, at Kansas, saw the Jayhawks shoot out of their minds in a convincing win. That win actually plays in our favor here though. Not only does a loss like that really motivate the losing team, especially one as good as K-State, but it also forces odds makers to increase the point spread. I just don't think Kansas is 6 points better on a neutral floor, not with the motivation that K-State has after two prior defeats. Kansas has been overvalued all season because of the betting attention that the No. 1 team in the country receives. It's an easy way for the books to make money. Jack up the line on Kansas and collect when they don't cover the spread. In fact, the Jayhawks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win and just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The Wildcats have been the better teams to back. They are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall, 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. We'll take the points.

3* Atlantic 10 Annihilator on Richmond +4
This is a big time revenge spot for Richmond, which lost by 2 points in double-OT to Xavier earlier this season. We successfully played on Xavier for our Conference Tournament Game of the Year yesterday as the Musketeers were looking to exact revenge on Dayton. Today, we'll go against Xavier as Richmond should be the more motivated team. Right away, I love the fact that the Spiders are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Plus, the Spiders are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall and an unbeaten 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Richmond should most definitely show up today. We'll take the points.

4* Major Conference Tourney Late Night Blowout on Vandy -7.5
I'll back the Commodores in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Georgia gave Vandy all it wanted and more during the regular season. The Dawgs won at home 72-58 and they only lost by 2 points on OT at Vandy. But what these scores don't tell you is that the first meeting was a sandwich game for the Dores. Vandy had just won a tough one against Mississippi State and then got caught looking ahead to Tennessee. The second one was a letdown spot. Vandy had just lost a heartbreaker to Kentucky the game before and clearly wasn't yet over that defeat. Because of how tough Georgia played Vandy during the regular season, and because it enters off a loss to S. Carolina on senior day, expect to see Vandy extremely motivated tonight. The Commodores want this SEC tourney badly. They want another shot at Kentucky. They also carry the big edge in terms of fresh legs and prep time having not played since last Saturday. We'll lay the points with the more talented side.

5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Xavier -3
Ever since Xavier was absolutely embarrassed by Dayton, losing 65-90, the Musketeers have been on an absolute tear, winning 7 in a row with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. You can bet Xavier was hoping it would get a chance to face Dayton again. Well, it gets that chance this evening and I expect the Musketeers to get their revenge. Right away, I love the fact that plays on any team revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 32-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Flyers enter at 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Xavier is 17-6 ATS as a favorite this season, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a S.U. win of more than 20 points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. Look for Xavier to roll tonight.

5* Pac-10 Tourney Game of the Year (FSN) on Oregon State +9
The Beavers will be out for revenge tonight after losing by 6 and 12 points to Washington during the regular season. Oregon State has to be excited to get another crack at the Huskies with a chance to burst their bubble. Right away, I love that Oregon State is 15-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season, winning these games by an average score of 60.8 to 59.5. And that's not all. The Beavers are 24-5 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the Huskies are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games and 1-8 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the Beavers and the points.

3* MWC Tourney SMASH on TCU +16.5
BYU just defeated TCU by 30 points in its last game so it's going to be hard for the Cougars to be as focused as need be to cover this large number tonight. The thing to note about that 30-point defeat is that TCU had just given conference champion New Mexico a scare the game before. The Horned Frogs obviously hadn't recovered yet from such an emotionally draining loss. After getting completely embarrassed by BYU, expect TCU to show up in a big way tonight. The Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog. Plus, plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points; an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, and after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more, are 60-26 ATS since 1997. The favorite is only winning by an average of 12.4 points in these games. Take TCU.

3* Conference Tourney Line Mistake on Rice +14.5
Rice finished the season with 7 straight defeats so it will be extremely motivated as it looks to play spoiler tonight. Plus, the Owls will not be lacking any confidence after playing Tulsa to a 4-point game earlier this season. With these things in mind, I feel odds makers are asking too much of Tulsa tonight, especially when you consider that they have not won by more than 14 points since January 16th. The Golden Hurricane are just 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall, 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. Conference USA, 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. Meanwhile, the Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. We'll take the points.

5* NEC Game of the Year (ESPN 2) on Robert Morris +4.5
With revenge on the mind for an earlier season loss, and with an NCAA Tournament berth on the line, I'll take Robert Morris and the points this evening. Robert Morris appeared to have the league title in the bag until it dropped 2 of its last 3 conference games to Quinnipiac and Mount St. Mary's. Last game, Robert Morris avenged its loss to Mount St. Mary's with an 80-62 blowout win, and I expect the Colonials to win this one outright tonight. Mount St. Mary's had come into the conference tourney as the hottest team in the league, but Robert Morris dominated. You know how the old saying goes, "defense wins championships", and Robert Morris is the more capable defensive team. The Colonials have won 4 of the last 5 and 8 of the last 10 in this series. Quinnipiac may have the home court advantage here, but I don't think it will be enough. Plays against home teams as a favorite or pick, a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games, are 52-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll take Robert Morris and the points.

3* A-10 Tourney Annihilator on UMass +9.5
Really think UMass isn't getting enough respect tonight when you consider that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points, off an upset win over a conference rival as a home underdog, are 32-8 ATS the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS this season. And there's more, the 49ers are just 8-26 ATS in their last 34 vs. the Atlantic 10, 49ers are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. loss, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the Minutemen are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Last thing, the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* Big East Tourney *BEST BET* (ESPN U) on Providence +6.5
I really like Providence catching a generous amount of points tonight. The Friars enter this contest having lost 10 in a row so they will be very hungry. On top of that, they will be a dangerous team because they have nothing to lose here. Seton Hall, who has a chance to play itself into the NCAAB Tournament is facing far more pressure. These two teams just played each other Saturday with Seton Hall coming out on top by 12 points, but it is an extremely difficult task to win again in these kind of spots. The losing team is usually hungrier and odds makers usually overvalued the winning team as that is the one the public tends to flock to. Furthermore, it's hard to justify laying points with Seton Hall when you consider that the Pirates are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite, 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. Meanwhile, the Friars are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Pound Providence.

4* Major Conference Tourney Blowout on Old Dominion -9
It's been a good run for William & Mary, but I expect it to come to an end tonight. After getting a major scare from VCU, look for the Monarchs to return to the court with more hunger and more focus tonight. It is not a certainty that Old Dominion will make the NCAA Tournament without winning the conference tourney tonight so they should not be lacking any motivation. The Monarchs have won both games with W&M this season. They won by 3 at W&M and by 19 at home. On a neutral floor today, look for the Monarchs to flex their muscles and show their superiority. I feel very comfortable laying this number when you consider that the Monarchs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, the Tribe are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Lay the number.

4* Major Conference Tourney Blowout on Gonzaga -12
Loyola Marymount has really played well down the stretch, but it finds itself in a very tough spot tonight. It has come up with a pair of tough wins the last 2 days, but now it must face an extremely fresh Gonzaga squad that hasn't played since March 2. On top of this, Gonzaga has a little added motivation here because it lost to Loyola last month after crushing the Lions by 16 in the season's first matchup. Loyola may be able to hang around in the first half, but in the second, I just can't see its legs being there. Plus, the Bulldogs are also playing for NCAA Tournament seeding so they'll be looking to impress the committee for a final time in this conference tourney. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Lay the number.

3* SMASH (ESPN) on Duke -14.5
It's senior night, it's a rivalry game, Duke is coming off a loss, and it needs this one to ensure itself of at least a share of the ACC regular season title. We haven't seen the Blue Devils in a more motivated spot all season so I expect them to really put the hurt on the Tar Heels here. An important thing to note is the total range as Duke is 8-1 ATS in home games where the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 86.6 to 55.9 believe it or not. It's also important to note that Duke is 8-2 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season, winning these games by an average score of 83.4 to 58.1. The Blue Devils are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. We'll lay the points.

5* 2010 NCAAB Game of the Year on Tulsa +7.5
This is a big revenge game for Tulsa after falling to Memphis earlier this season. A major key here is Tulsa's rebounding edge. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds per game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Plus, Memphis is 0-8 ATS after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. In addition, Memphis is just 6-15 ATS as a favorite this season and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as a home favorite. The Golden Hurricane want this one bad, so much so that they nearly got caught looking ahead last game. No matter how good some of the Tulsa teams have been in recent years, they have all played second fiddle to Memphis. Now, I really believe Tulsa is the better team. I really expect Tulsa to win this game outright as a 7.5-point dog, and that's why I have made the Golden Hurricane my Game of the Year. Best of Luck.

5* WCC Game of the Year on Santa Clara +4
Santa Clara and San Diego both finished 3-11 in WCC play, splitting during the regular season, but I really believe Santa Clara is the better team playing better basketball right now. And it should be the hungrier team tonight as it looks to snap a 3-game skid. With this is mind, I just can't justify San Diego as a 4-point favorite. In fact, I really believe the wrong team is favored here. First off, the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two schools. Secondly, the Toreros are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 vs. the WCC, 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Thirdly, the Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as an underdog and 7-0 ATS when playing away from home after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

5* MVC Game of the Year on Evansville +9.5
Evansville may have finished in last place in the Valley during the regular season, but it wasn't playing like a last place team down the stretch. The Aces recorded wins over 2nd place finisher Wichita State and over conference champion Northern Iowa. In other words, this is not the same team that Missouri State defeated by 10 points at home on Jan. 27th. One big reason I feel good about taking the points is because Missouri State doesn't force a lot of turnovers, and therefore doesn't score many points off turnovers. In fact, the Bears are 0-8 ATS after going 5 straight games without forcing an opponent to commit more than 14 turnovers. Missouri State has also struggled to cover the number in neutral site contests. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as a favorite. The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite period. You also have to like that the Purple Aces are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll take the points.

3* Big Ten SMASH (ESPN 2) on Penn State +13
Michigan State may be 13-2 at home this season, but it is only 4-10 ATS in its home lined games. In fact, Michigan State hasn't defeated anyone at home by more than 10 points in Big Ten play this season. We find the Spartans in a letdown spot tonight as well after a big revenge win over Purdue. Penn State is playing its best basketball off the season, winning 3 of its last 4 games with 2 of those wins coming on the road. The fact of the matter is Penn State has been an exceptional road team from a point spread standpoint. Penn State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, only losing by an average score of 64 to 66.3. Michigan State may be a strong rebounding team, but Penn State is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons, only losing in these games by an average score of 68.5 to 69.2. Penn State is 8-1 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season while Michigan State is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite of 10 or more points this season. The Spartans are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. We'll take the points tonight.

5* MWC Game of the Month on TCU +16
I feel there is some serious line value with TCU tonight when you consider that New Mexico is only winning by an average of 13.8 points at home this season. Plus, it's going to be hard for the Lobos to get up for this one after such an emotional win over BYU. On top of that, plays against favorites of 10 or more points after 7 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), are 59-18 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 10-1 ATS this season. The favorite has been favored by an average of 17.8 points in these games but is only winning by an average of 12.8. We'll take the points as TCU shows up in a big way trying to knock off the top dog in the conference.

3* C-USA Cash Cow on Tulsa -9
Plays on home teams as a favorite or pick after a cover as a double digit favorite, in March games, are 23-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. On average this system has seen the favorite win by an average of 16.6 points. SMU was just a 13.5-point dog at Memphis, at team Tulsa is very comparable to, so I feel we are getting some good line value here. After finally ending its 4-game skid, expect Tulsa to use its momentum to really hammer SMU on senior night. Lay the points.

5* 2010 Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois +9.5
A win ensures Ohio State the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten tourney and at least a share of the regular season conference championship so the Buckeyes shouldn't be lacking motivation. However, Illinois will be extremely motivated as well, and with that in mind, odds makers are spotting the Illini too many points. The Illini can earn a first round bye in the Big Ten tourney with a win tonight. But their biggest motivation is that a win will likely ensure them a place in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini have dropped 3 of 4, including a 19-point embarrassing loss to the Buckeyes, to find themselves on the bubble. Illinois already has wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin. It is a much better team than it has showed recently, and I expect the Illini to give the Buckeyes all they want and more tonight. Illinois has shot very poorly in the games it has lost recently and is coming off a dismal 31.9% shooting effort. But that actually bodes well for us here as Illinois is on an 11-1 ATS run in road games after a game where they made 33% of their shots or worse. The Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite, 0-7 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season and 0-7 ATS in home games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. Take Illinois and the points.

3* SEC SMASH on Florida -3
I'll take the unranked home favorite in this one as I believe odds makers are tipping their hand. Vandy has lost 8 straight at Florida and I don't see this streak coming to an end tonight. The Gators know they still have some work to do to leave absolutely no doubt in the minds of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, especially after a bad loss to Georgia. History is on our side tonight as well when you consider that plays on a home team off an upset loss to a conference rival against an opponent that scored 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival, are 60-27 ATS since 1997 and 31-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Gators are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. It is also worth noting that Vandy is 0-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. This is significant because Vandy is a pretty good free throw shooting team and Florida won't give them as many opportunities from the line. Take Florida.

3* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Texas -13
This may seem like quite a big number at first glance, but the Sooners have lost by at least 13 points in 3 of their last 4 road games. Plus, Texas will be extremely motivated in this spot for several reasons. First off, it's senior night. Secondly, the Longhorns are coming off a poor performance against Texas A&M. Lastly, the Horns will be looking to avenge a loss at Oklahoma last month. This situation is very similar to one Texas was in back on Feb. 13. The Horns had just played poorly against Kansas and they went out and destroyed Nebraska by 40 points. The Sooners are just 14-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Texas. OU is 1-8 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in a week this season, losing in these spot by an average of 14.8 points. Texas is on a 17-6 ATS run in home games when playing its 3rd game in a week, winning in these spots by 16.3 points on average. It is also a tremendous 11-1 ATS in home games where the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by 19.3 points on average. We'll lay the points.

4* Major Big Ten Bomb on Indiana +6
The Hoosiers may enter having lost 9 in a row, but I just can't justify Iowa laying this many points, especially since Indiana will be hungry to avenge an earlier season home loss to the Hawkeyes. This has been a matchup dominated by the dog as the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. And the Hawks have proven they can't be trusted as a home favorite as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in the role. The odds are certainly in Indiana's favor when you consider that road teams, after failing to cover the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season, are 72-30 ATS since 1997, 26-6 ATS the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS this season. Indiana knows this is its chance to end its losing streak and should come out with a lot or energy today. Take the points.

5* NCAAB ESPN Game of the Year on Villanova +5.5
We'll take Villanova and the points today as its big game experience and experienced back court, led by Scottie Reynolds, gives the Wildcats the edge. Nova has won 3 straight in this series and 5 of the last 6. From a point spread perspective, the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Syracuse and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Nova has the type of guards that can really cause problems for the Cuse zone with their penetration and ability to knocks down threes. And that's why we've seen the Wildcats enjoy success against the Orange. With first place on the line, I just can't see Villanova getting beat by more than 5 points. And frankly, I can't see it getting beat period. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and we'll take them in that role here today.

4* Major NCAAB *Early Blowout* on Colorado -4
After getting absolutely hammered by Mizzou, the Buffs will be extremely motivated today, especially since they will be looking to avenge a 1-point loss at Iowa State last month. Iowa State is coming off a conference win and that figures to be good news as the Cyclones are 0-6 ATS following a conference win over the last 2 seasons. What's even more shocking is that the Cyclones are losing by an average score of 63.8 to 82.2 in these spots. Iowa State is 3-8 away from home this season while the Buffs are 11-3 on their home floor. Colorado is 2-0 SU & ATS in its last 2 home meetings against ISU and it is 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS in its last 12. Also, under coach McDermott, Iowa State is on a 1-10 ATS slide in road games off a conference win, losing in these spots by an average score of 60.1 to 79.1. The Buffaloes are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points and we'll bet them in that role here today. Lay the points.

5* Pac-10 Game of the Year on Oregon State +5
UCLA doesn't deserve to be laying this many points against anyone in the Pac-10 this season when you consider that it is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Beavers have proven to be one of the best teams to back in college basketball as they are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games overall. The Beavers are an impressive 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog period. Oregon State should be particularly hungry tonight coming off a double digit home loss to Stanford and having lost to UCLA by 10 points earlier this season. UCLA is coming off an absolutely embarrassing defeat of nearly 30 points at Washington, a place where the Beavers only lost by 6 points by the way. That loss will have the Bruins motivated, but this UCLA team just doesn't have the fire power to put away an equally motivated squad tonight. For all the beatings the Bruins have handed the Beavers in recent years, I expect to see Oregon State playing with some desire in this one. Plus Reeves Nelson and Brendan Lane are both listed as doubtful for UCLA. I like the Beavers in this spot catching points regardless, but it will be a huge blow if Nelson and his 11.0 ppg can't go. Take the points.

4* Major Non-Conference Game of the Month (ESPN 2) on Tulsa +18
Tulsa will leave it all out on the floor tonight in this national TV game against one of the best programs in the country. Right away I like the fact that plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points off an upset loss as a home favorite against an opponent off a home win are 60-29 ATS the last 5 seasons. As if playing Duke on national TV isn't enough motivation, a very good Tulsa team should be especially hungry here as it enters off 3 straight losses. Pulling the upset tonight would easily atone for those defeats and that's what the Golden Hurricane will be shooting for. Tulsa has often been overvalued in its own league and as a result has lost 9 straight games ATS. Because of this, we are getting a little bit better line than we would have otherwise got. Plus, one has to think that Duke's players will be a little bit more concerned with the rest of its league schedule no matter how hard coach K tries to convince them not to be. We'll take an extremely motivated Tulsa team catching big points tonight.

5* NCAAB Underdog of the Month on St. Louis +5
The Billikens are not getting the respect they deserve at home tonight. This team is 9-3 SU & ATS in A-10 play and 14-1 SU at home and 7-2 ATS in home lined games this season. The Billikens have defeated Richmond (the conference leader), Dayton and Rhode Island outright in the home dog role in 2010, and I anticipate another upset here. Xavier, which is tied for 2nd in the A-10, has a date with Richmond up next, so St. Louis likely won't get the Musketeers' entire focus tonight, although it should. This is a matchup that has been dominated by the home team in terms of the point spread as the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Billikens are also an impressive 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. St. Louis is also 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons and 8-0 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points.

4* Major MVC Game of the Month on Evansville +10
This is a big letdown spot for N. Iowa, who has already wrapped up the regular season MVC title, after a huge Bracket Buster win over Old Dominion last week. While Evansville is the worst team in the Valley, it has shown a spark of late, beating the league's second place team (Wichita State) and playing them to a 6-point game, in two meetings this month. One thing that can't be overlooked here is that N. Iowa is 0-7 ATS versus poor teams, outscored by their opponents by 4 or more points per game, under coach Jacobson. The Panthers are only beating these teams by 7.8 points on average. The Purple Aces are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll take the points here tonight.

5* NCAAB Blowout of the Year on Cal -6.5
After an embarrassing double digit loss at Oregon State, Cal has seen its lead in the Pac-10 shrink to a half game. The Bears have already defeated Oregon by 32 points this season and they won by 18 the last time they visited the Ducks. Cal is the much more talented side and it should be motivated enough to lay the wood in this spot. The Golden Bears are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a road favorite and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points (listed at -7 at some books). The Ducks are a terrible 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points (listed at +7 at some books). Oregon is 5-16 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by 13.8 points on average. With all the factors that have presented themselves, Cal seems primed for a blowout win.

4* Major C-USA Game of the Month on Tulsa -1
UTEP leads the league and enters this game having won 9 in a row, yet Tulsa is the team odds makers have favored. I believe the books have tipped their hand here. This should be Tulsa's most motivated spot of the entire season. It will be looking to avenge an earlier season loss to UTEP and it will be looking to avenge back-to-back losses to Memphis and Marshall. Tulsa has had great success against the Miners, and I expect that success to continue in this extremely motivated spot. Tulsa is 15-1 at home this season. It is a perfect 2-0 SU & ATS at home against the Miners over the last 3 seasons and 9-2 SU & 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 home games against UTEP. The Miners are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Tulsa and 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings overall. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Golden Hurricane are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Take Tulsa.

4* Major Ivy League Game of the Month on Brown +6
The Bears will be out for revenge tonight after losing the season's first meeting by 1 point at home. Plus, I just can't justify laying this many points with Penn when you consider that the Quakers 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Meanwhile, the Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Penn. In addition, Penn is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 67.8 to 72.3. Take Brown and the points.

4* Major Pac-10 *Crunch Time Bailout* on Oregon State +6
We'll take the points with the Beavers tonight. Oregon State played Cal to a 4-point game on the road in the season's first meeting and has either won or lost by 5 or fewer points in each of the last 4 meetings. Oregon State is a terrific underdog because of its slow down style of play. The Beavers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall, 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Cal has not been the same team on the road at just 4-7 SU & ATS when playing away from home this season. The Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings with Oregon St. and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the points.

3* NCAAB *Under The Radar* SMASH on Pepperdine +10.5
Off a big win over St. Mary's, don't expect Portland to give Pepperdine its complete focus tonight, especially since it won the first meeting by 16 points. Meanwhile, the Waves will be extremely focused as they try to end a 7-game skid. We made a similar play last night with the Nebraska Corn Huskers catching big points against a K-State team that had blown them out in the season's first meeting. K-State clearly wasn't ready for the motivated Huskers who led at the half and only lost by 4 points as a 14.5-point dog. Pepperdine has played 3 straight on the road so it will be very happy to see its home floor again tonight. This is a team that played Gonzaga to a 7-point game on the road so it can certainly give Portland all it wants and more at home here. We'll take the points.

3* Big Ten SMASH on Penn State +7
After a physically draining overtime win over Minnesota Sunday, and with a revenge game against Wisconsin on deck, don't expect the Wildcats to be completely focused on the task at hand here. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions could not be more motivated as they are still looking for their first Big Ten win. With these things in mind, I believe odds makers are giving Penn State too many points. In fact, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog period. Penn State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, only losing in these games by an average score of 61.2 to 65.7. Plus, the Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup. We'll take the points.

4* Major Big 12 *BEST BET* on Nebraska +14.5
We'll take Nebraska catching big points in what should be its most motivated spot of the season. The Huskers are coming off a brutal 40-point loss to Texas and they will be further motivated by a 19-point loss to K-State earlier this season. The Huskers have played Kansas to a 12-point game and an 11-point game this season so they can definitely keep this one within the number. Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points, an excellent offensive team scoring 76 or more ppg, against an excellent defensive team allowing 63 or less ppg, after a combined score of 125 points or less, are 40-14 ATS since 1997. We'll take the Huskers tonight as they save face by giving the Wildcats all they want and more.

3* NCAAB *Under The Radar* SMASH on UL Monroe +8
Last season, these two teams produced a pair of nailbiters with both games being decided by a total of 4 points. UL Monroe is coming off back-to-back wins over a pair of teams that have recently defeated the Red Wolves (Arkansas LR, Western Kentucky). I know Arkansas St. is a good home team, but I believe this line is a little steep, especially when you consider that the Red Wolves are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. It's also worth noting that Arkansas St. is on a 0-7 ATS slide when playing against a team with a win percentage between 40-49 percent after 15 or more games, actually losing to these teams by an average score or 65.9 to 74.7. It is also worth noting that Arkansas St. is 1-10 ATS in February games over the last 2 seasons. UL Monroe has won 2 of its last 3 road games SU as an underdog. We'll take the points tonight.

4* Major Big East *BEST BET* on Rutgers +11
Rutgers has proven to be pretty good at home with an 11-4 record on the season, including recent straight up wins as an underdog against Notre Dame and St. John's. Georgetown won the first meeting at home by 25 points so don't expect the Hoyas to bring their full attention and focus to the floor today, especially with a rematch against Syracuse up next on their minds. Remember what happened when Georgetown was looking ahead to a rematch with Villanova? It lost to S. Florida at home by 8 points as a 13-point favorite. Georgetown is 0-8 ATS after covering 3 of its last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Hoyas are also 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games following an ATS win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take Rutgers.

3* NCAAB *Under The Radar* SMASH on Ohio +7.5
Ohio versus Akron is starting to become quite the heated rivalry in the MAC. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these schools have been decided by 5 points or less. Ohio comes in playing well, having won back-to-back games and 5 of its last 7, and motivation will not be an issue today as it seeks to avenge an earlier season loss to the Zips. Right away, I like the fact that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, going up against an opponent off a road win, are 52-23 ATS the last 5 seasons. The average line in these games has the favorite favored by 6.1 points with a winning margin of only 2.6 points for that team. I also like the fact that Akron is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games with winning margins of just 5 and 4 in its last 2. It's also nice to know that the Zips are just 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. In addition, the road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take the points today.

3* Saturday Night Prime Time (ESPN) on Tennessee +9.5
Off an embarrassing loss at Vandy, expect the Vols and there pressure defense to show up and give the Wildcats problems tonight. Bruce Pearl is a great motivator. We saw the way he got his kids ready to play against Kansas, even in the face of adversity, and I expect him to do his part again tonight. While John Wall is no doubt talented, he has also been prone to turnovers, and I expect Tennessee's pressure to get to him in this one. In addition, the Vols were embarrassed twice by Kentucky last season so I expect those two losses to add fuel to the fire. The Volunteers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and we'll take them in that role here.

5* Big 12 Game of the Year on Texas Tech -1.5
This game is all about payback for Texas Tech after getting crushed by 15 at A&M. The Red Raiders are a superb home team at 13-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in home lined games this season so I'll back them laying less than a deuce on their home floor here today. First off, the home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings so we see how important home court has been in this series. In addition, the Red Raiders are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. It's also nice to know that Texas Tech is 15-6 ATS when revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. We'll take Tech as our Big 12 Top Play.

4* Major Atlantic 10 Game of the Month on Rhode Island +4.5
This is a very motivated spot for Rhode Island, who is looking to get back in the win column after a loss to Richmond and also looking to avenge an earlier season OT loss to Temple. Rhode Island has proven to be a quality team when playing away from home. In fact, it is 9-2 SU and 7-2 ATS in lined games away from home this season. Looking further back, the Rams are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Plus, they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. It is still uncertain if Juan Fernandez, who was so instrumental in Temple's win over Rhode Island earlier this season, will go this afternoon. If he can't go, the Owls are certainly a mediocre team without him. If he can go, I expect to see some rust. We'll take the points with Rhode Island in this motivated spot.

4* Major MVC Monster on Drake +2.5
Indiana State really isn't too worthy to lay any amount of chalk right now when you consider that the Sycamores are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite. Plus, they are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Drake may only be 4-8 away from home this season, but it is 8-3-1 ATS in those games. The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Missouri Valley. Drake will be out for blood here after a home loss to rival Northern Iowa and after a 14-point home defeat to Indiana State earlier this season. The Sycamores are already without Jake Kelly and now they've lost Harry Marshall and Dwayne Lathan. That's a lot or points to make up. We'll take the Bulldogs.

4* Major NCAAB *Under The Radar* SMASH of the Week on Columbia +13.5
We have a lot going in our favor here. First off, Princeton will be much more concerned with its game tomorrow against Cornell as the Big Red are also undefeated in Ivy League play. Secondly, Princeton runs a methodical clock-eating offense. With odds makers setting the opening total of this game at just 105.5 points, it is apparent that they expect points to be at a premium. With that in mind, I feel pretty good about catching 13.5 of them with Columbia. In fact, the Lions are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 13.0 or more points. Plus, the Tigers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or more points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 13.0 or more period. It is also worth noting that the Lions are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Another thing to keep in mind is the motivation level of Columbia. Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite are 73-33 ATS since 1997. Columbia will be motivated by its recent poor performance against Yale and further motivated by playing an undefeated Ivy League team tonight. We

4* Major NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* (ESPN 2) on Saint Mary's +6
With a win, Saint Mary's takes a big step toward winning the WCC title so you can bet the Gaels are going to leave it all out on the floor tonight. Saint Mary's was very disappointed with how it played at home against the Zags in an earlier season loss so I expect a much better effort here. The Gaels have proven to be one of the best road teams in the country as they enter tonight's contest a perfect 7-0 in true road games. A couple other things really stick out to me. The first is that Saint Mary's is 13-4 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. The second is that the Gaels are a perfect 6-0 ATS when looking to avenge a loss where they allowed 85 or more points under coach Bennett. Take the points tonight.

5* SEC Game of the Month (ESPN) on Ole Miss +4.5
Ole Miss lost the season's first meeting at home, but I expect the Rebels to pay back their struggling rivals, who have lost 4 of 5, tonight. The Rebels have been sensational against the spread when playing away from home at 8-2 in that role this season. In fact, Ole Miss is 13-4 ATS in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. But what's even more impressive is that the Rebs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games when looking to avenge a loss versus an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take Ole Miss and the points.

5* MWC Game of the Year on New Mexico +5.5
New Mexico is catching too many points here when you consider the motivation it has to avenge an earlier season loss to UNLV. This matchup has been all about the underdog from a betting perspective as the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Plus, the Lobos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and the Runnin' Rebels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. New Mexico is also 7-2 when playing away from home this season. In addition, a win by the Lobos would take them past UNLV in the MWC standings. They would then be all alone at the top in the win column and only tied with BYU in the loss column. That's further motivation for Steve Alford's boys tonight. And we certainly can't overlook the weapon that is coach Alford here as his teams are 20-8 ATS in road games when revenging a same season in all games he has coached since 1997, winning in these spots by an average score of 68.7 to 67.9. In other words, he has made the proper adjustments. I'll take the points tonight as New Mexico has an excellent shot at winning this one outright.

3* NCAAB *Under The Radar* SMASH on Furman +7.5
Furman usually always plays Wofford tough at home. In fact, it has won 8 of its last 12 home games against Wofford. The Paladins will be especially motivated tonight because they have now lost 3 straight to the Terriers, including a 3-point loss at home last season and an 11-point loss at Wofford earlier this season. But Furman is 14-4 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last 3 seasons and 11-3 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss vs. an opponent over the last 3 seasons. The Paladins are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5. We'll take the points with the home dog tonight.

3* NCAAB Line Mistake on Alabama +16
The Tide have lost 3 in a row so they should not be lacking any motivation tonight, especially since they have also lost their last 3 against Kentucky. Meanwhile, Kentucky just played as well as it could play against LSU and has Tennessee on deck so the Wildcats are in a tough spot here as far as motivation goes for this one. The Tide have been reliable of late on the road as they are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 road games and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or more points. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and this just goes to show you how much they have been overvalued following a victory. We'll take the points with Bama tonight.

3* NCAAB *Under The Radar* SMASH on Evansville +10.5
There is some value with Evansville in the home dog role tonight when you consider that the Purple Aces are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and the Shockers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. Evansville has either won, or lost by 5 or fewer points, in 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series. Plus, Wichita State is just 1-3 ATS in its last 4 MVC road games. Its lone ATS win during this stretch came against conference leader N. Iowa in a game where the Panthers were clearly overvalued because they were the team odds makers figured the public would be pounding. In this instance, the Shockers are the team the public is hitting hard, which is another reason why I feel we are getting pretty good value with the home dog here. Take the points.

3* ESPN Big Monday *BEST BET* on Texas +2
Texas got caught looking ahead Saturday, but as a result, it will be even more motivated tonight. The Longhorns have had great success against the Jayhawks at home, having won three straight home games in the series. We also must note that the Horns have won six in a row at home against teams ranked in the top 5. After getting off to a 17-0 start and a No. 1 ranking, things have not gone as smoothly for Texas. It has a chance to redeem itself tonight, and with that in mind, I expect Texas' best effort of the entire season. Playing so quickly after Saturday's defeat is actually a good thing as that loss still burns strongly. In fact, Texas is on a 15-4 ATS run in home games when playing with one or less day's rest. Meanwhile, Kansas is on a 0-9 ATS skid after having won 18 or more of its last 20 games. Plus, the Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and the Jayhawks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. We'll take Texas and the points.

3* Under the Radar SMASH The Citadel +7.5
The Citadel has played Charleston very tough recently, winning 2 of the last 3 meetings by 9 and 14 points respectively in the underdog role. After losing to Charleston at home by 6 points earlier this season, I expect The Citadel to be especially motivated tonight. The Citadel has been one of the best underdogs in college hoops in recent seasons, as it is on a 22-5 ATS run as an underdog, a 15-4 ATS run as a road underdog or pick, and on a 17-5 ATS run in all lined road games. The Citadel enters off back-to-back wins and that is also significant as it is 6-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Charleston and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. We'll take the points.

3* SEC SMASH on LSU +12
We are getting pretty good value with LSU in the home dog role today as the Tigers could not be hungrier to end their 8-game losing streak. They showed that hunger in their last game when they played Tennessee to a 5-point game, and I expect them to show up again here. Expect a big game from Tasmin Mitchell, who only shot 4 of 12 against Tennessee. If he had any kind of offensive game against the Vols at all, LSU would have won. He is a good player, and I don't expect him to be outdone by the star power of Kentucky on his home floor this afternoon. The Wildcats are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 vs. the SEC and we see a trend developing with Kentucky having lost its last 2 road games ATS. We'll take the points.

4* Major National TV Annihilator (CBS) on Michigan +1
It's been a disappointing season thus far for a Michigan team that won a game in the NCAA tournament last year. But one thing we have been able to count on is the Wolverines showing up at home where they are 9-3 on the season. Michigan should not be lacking motivation today as it looks to avenge a 6-point loss at Wisconsin and an embarrassing 15-point loss to Northwestern in its last game. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is just 2-4 in true road games this season, and we find it in a letdown spot today after a huge win over first place Michigan State. It's certainly important to note that the Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games period. Take the Wolverines.

5* NCAAB False Favorite of the Month on Clemson +1.5
With or without Demontez Stitt, who is listed as questionable for this game, and who the Tigers did not need to defeat Maryland in their last game, I expect Clemson to hand VA Tech its first home defeat of the season today. The Tigers have not played since January 31 so they should be very well prepared and ready to go. I strongly feel that VA Tech has overachieved to this point. Clemson had played the much more difficult ACC slate and that will show out on the floor today. The key to VA Tech's home success is its defense, but the Hokies allowed a struggling UNC squad to hang 70 points on them last game, and we all know how badly the Tigers crushed the Heels. The Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Plus, the Tigers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Really think the books have the wrong team favored here. Take Clemson.

3* Friday Night NCAAB SMASH on Montana -4
Montana is a sensational home team at 10-1 on the season while Weber State has struggled to the tune of 3-6 in true road games this season. Plus, the Grizzlies will be further motivated tonight after falling to the Wildcats on the road in early January. They've had this one circled ever since and I expect them to have their revenge tonight. The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Also, they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games following three or more consecutive road games. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games following three or more consecutive home games. We'll take Montana in this highly motivated spot.

3* Under the Radar SMASH on Detroit +16
You have to like Detroit's chances catching this many points when you consider that it is a perfect s 8-0 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game this season. Plus, the Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games overall. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games and only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite. We'll take the points here.

5* ACC Game of the Month (ESPN 2) on Duke -12.5
Duke is a perfect 12-0 at home this season and 8-3 ATS in all home lined games. The Blue Devils could not be more motivated tonight as they look to pay Georgia Tech back for an earlier season loss, and as they look to bounce back from a loss to Georgetown last game. Duke is 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games against the Yellow Jackets, winning these games by an average of 17.2 points. Also, plays on home teams as a favorite or pick off an upset loss by 10 points or more, against an opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, are 25-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Duke is also 7-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points per game this season, winning these games by an average score of 70.6 to 55.6. The Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and they get the call tonight.

4* Major Early Cash Cow (Big 10 Network) on Penn State +14.5
The time to back Penn State has certainly been in the road underdog role. In fact, the Nittany Lions are 3-1 ATS in that role in Big Ten play and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog period. The Nittany Lions are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Buckeyes are coming off a huge blowout win over Minnesota so I can't see them getting up for this game tonight. That's usually been the case for the Bucks as they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points. Take the points.

4* Major ESPN Super Tuesday *BEST BET* on Ole Miss +11
The Rebs got caught looking ahead Sunday against Arkansas, and that loss should only add to their motivation tonight. Chris Warren, who is averaging a team-high 16.7 points will be especially motivated after missing both meetings with Kentucky last season due to injury. Right away, you have to like the fact that plays on underdogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss as a favorite, playing their 2nd game in 3 days, are 93-39 ATS since 1997. Ole Miss is also 12-4 ATS in all road lined games over the last 2 seasons and a perfect 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. We'll take the points.

3* ESPN Big Monday *BEST BET* on Louisville -6
The public is all over UConn tonight and that only makes me like the Cards more. UConn is just 1-6 SU & 2-4 ATS when playing away from home this season, including 0-4 SU in true road games, and I don't think it will be able to handle the pressure of a very hungry Louisville team, that is 11-3 at home, tonight. The Cardinals are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, an amazing 43-17-2 ATS in their last 62 vs. the Big East, and even 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 Monday games. This is also the month when Pitino typically really gets his boys going as they are 12-3 ATS in February games over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 10.6 points. Lay the points with Louisville at home.

3* NCAAB Sunday Night SMASH on So. Illinois +1.5
This is a sandwich game for the Wichita State. The Shockers are in a letdown spot following a big win over Illinois State, and they are in a look ahead spot with first place Northern Iowa on deck. Wichita State has lost its last 2 road games and is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite. So. Illinois will be extremely motivated at home tonight after a loss to Indiana State, and the Salukis have certainly had Wichita State's number. The Salukis have won 6 straight over the Shockers overall and 11 of their last 12 at home. The Shockers are just 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings and 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings at So. Illinois. Take the Salukis.

5* Big Ten Game of the Month (CBS) on Minnesota +7
The Gophers have only lost by more than 7 points one time this season so they should be able to keep this one within the number here today. They already have an 11-point win over Ohio State this season and have won 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Buckeyes. A big key here is Minnesota's defensive pressure as it has really rattled the Buckeyes in these recent contests. In fact, Ohio State is 0-6 ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 61.2 to 65.7. Plus, we couldn't picks a better day of the week to fade the Bucks as they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Sunday games. Take Minnesota and the points.

4* Major NCAAB Letdown Game of the Month on Georgia +7.5
This is a huge letdown spot for S.C. after pulling off the shocking upset over Kentucky. Meanwhile, a Georgia team that has been playing well, covering the spread in 5 of 6 with an upset win over Tennessee, got a wake up call with a bad loss at Florida. That loss should have the Dawgs refocused tonight. The Dawgs will be further motivated by getting swept in the season series by the Gamecocks last season. The Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the Dawgs.

5* C-USA Game of the Year on SMU +8
First of all Memphis isn't near the team it has been the past couple seasons, which gives us all the more reason to go against the Tigers here. Memphis will undoubtedly be looking ahead to UAB and SMU will be looking to pay the Tigers back for handing it an embarrassing 90-47 loss last season. SMU is greatly improved. It has won 3 straight heading into this contest and played UAB to a 1-point game and UTEP to a 4-point game. Memphis is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. SMU is 6-0 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Mustangs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Conference USA. Take the points.

4* Major 33-0 ATS Friday Night NCAAB *BEST BET* on Wisconsin Green Bay +8
After getting crushed by 23 points at Butler, expect a quality Wisconsin Green Bay club to be motivated enough to give the Bulldogs a serious scare tonight. Right away, I like the fact that plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points, against an opponent off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, are 39-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. But, perhaps even more relevant is the fact that Green Bay is a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons. And furthermore, WGB is 8-0 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. And I'm not done yet; Butler is 0-7 ATS after a cover as a double digit favorite over the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. And lastly, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take WGB and the points.

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Oregon State +4
Really like Oregon State in the home dog role tonight. First off, the Beavers have been one of the best covering teams in the country at 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall, and they have been extremely dangerous as a dog at 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. In fact, OSU is 8-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 62.0 to 59.7. Also, USC is 0-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 62.9 to 63.3. We'll take the Beavers and the points tonight.

3* 21-0 ATS NCAAB Under the Radar SMASH on George Mason -11
George Mason is rolling, having won 5 in a row, and it will be extremely motivated to take it to Delaware tonight as it remembers last season's 8-point loss at Delaware well. It is also worth noting that GM won by 23 points as a 12-point favorite at home against Delaware last season. We can't overlook the fact that GM is on a perfect 7-0 ATS run in home games versus terrible teams outscored by their opponents by 8 or more points per game after 15+ games into the season, winning in these spots by an average score of 85.0 to 59.3. GM is also 7-0 ATS after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games over the last 2 seasons and Delaware is 0-7 ATS after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. We'll lay the points.

4* Major ACC Game of the Week (ESPN U) on Miami Florida +8.5
Miami has lost 3 straight, but the Canes should be well rested and well prepared tonight having not played in a week. In fact, Miami is on a 16-5 ATS run in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest, winning these games by an average score of 68.5 to 65.4. The Hurricanes are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Plus, it's still too early to trust Maryland laying this much chalk when you consider the Terrapins are only 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. Take Miami and the points.

4* Major ESPN Big Monday *BEST BET* on Georgetown +6
The Hoyas haven't lost by more than 5 points this entire season with that loss coming at Villanova so I'll gladly take the points tonight, especially considering that Georgetown took Cuse to OT in the Carrier Dome last season before eventually losing by 4 points. Another thing that makes the Hoyas look so attractive catching this many points is how strong they are at the defensive end. This is a team only allowing 61.4 ppg this season, and it will make the Orange work for every one of their baskets. Syracuse plays one of the best zones in the country but Georgetown has the right recipe to defeat it. The Hoyas shoot 41.3% from the 3-point stripe on the road, and they have a versatile big man in Greg Monroe who can find the seams in the middle of the zone. Georgetown is a very balanced team on both sides of the ball and very tough. I'll take the Hoyas and the points tonight.

3* Sunday NCAAB SMASH on Penn State +13
The Nittany Lions couldn't be hungrier today after starting the Big Ten season 0-6, especially against a team that thumped them by 17 in Happy Valley back on January 3rd. Penn State may only be 2-6 on the road this season, but it is 5-3 ATS in those games. Plus, it is 2-0 ATS as a road underdog in Big Ten play this season, playing Minnesota to a 5-point game and Illinois to a 1-point game. On top of the revenge factor, the Nittany Lions will be further motivated after laying an absolute egg against Indiana last game. Wisconsin will be much more worried about its upcoming games with Purdue and Michigan State. Plus, this time around the Badgers won't have Jon Leuer, who was averaging 15.4 ppg before he was injured. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog period, and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 (line at -12.5 at many books, but take +13 if you can get it). We'll take the points.

3* Marquee Matchup (CBS) on Texas -2.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. After enduring their first loss of the season, expect the Longhorns to bounce back strong this afternoon. While UConn is a good home team, it is just 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Texas is also 8-2 ATS in non-conference games this season while UConn is 2-8 ATS in non-conference games this season. The public is on Texas big in this spot, but I think they have just cause as this line is a little soft.

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Year (CBS) on Ohio State +6.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. The Buckeyes are playing very well and I expect their solid play to continue this afternoon. Ohio State has plenty of motivation to get the job done here when you consider that it was crushed by 28 points at home by WVU last season. The Buckeyes return all 5 starters from that team and they will be looking to return the favor. The Mountaineers are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Take the Buckeyes.

3* Early SMASH (ESPN) on St. John's +6
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. St. John's is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 63.6 to 63.1. The Johnnies are also an impressive 8-1 ATS in Saturday games over the last 2 seasons and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. Look for the Red Storm to give Nova a scare today.

3* NCAAB Under the Radar SMASH on Portland State +9.5
Can't pass up a shot with this system tonight: Plays against a favorite, Weber State in this case, after scoring 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival, against an opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite, are 27-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is already 2-0 ATS this season. Odds makers are begging for action on Weber State leaving this line Under 10 and they have received it. We'll go against the grain as the Vikings keep this one close.

4* Major Pac-10 Game of the Month on Oregon State +6.5
I'll grab the points with Oregon State tonight against a Stanford team that will be without starter Andrew Zimmerman. While he doesn't put up big numbers, his size will be dearly missed on the defensive end. But even if Zimmerman was in the lineup, I would likely have to pull the trigger on Oregon State tonight catching this many points as the Beavers are 6-0 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. And that's not all. The Beavers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog, 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog, and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games overall. And this one might be the clincher: OSU is 10-0 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points under coach Robinson, winning these games by an average score of 65.3 to 64.3. Oregon State plays a very disciplined slow paced style of basketball that teams really struggle with because they don't see it very often. We'll take the points.

3* Under the Radar SMASH on San Jose State +6.5
The Bulldogs are having a great season, but they are being overvalued because of that tonight. I'll gladly take the points with the Spartans here as Louisiana Tech is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games as a road favorite. You also have to like the fact that the Spartans are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Spartans have certainly been at their best against top notch competition, going 8-1 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games under coach Nessman. The Spartans are 6-1 at home this season and 4-1 ATS in home lined games. Look for Nessman's experienced team with 4 returning starters to keep this one close.

4* Major ESPN 2 SMASH of the Week on South Florida +9.5
Cincy is just 4-8 ATS in lined games this season, including 1-3 ATS at home, and 1-4 ATS in conference play, yet the public is all over the Bearcats here. We'll go against the grain with a USF team that is a profitable 9-6 ATS on the season, including 5-3 ATS in road games. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Cincinnati. Cincy has struggled in the chalk at 16-33-2 ATS in its last 51 games as a favorite. The Bearcats are also just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. We'll take USF and the points here.

3* Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Week (ESPN U) on Northern Iowa +3.5
I know the Wichita State is 11-0 at home, but all signs point to the Panthers here, who are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 overall. The Panthers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or less points. Here's some more good stuff: the Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Wichita State, the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and the underdog is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Northern Iowa is the better team. The Panthers were able to go on the road and defeat a quality Illinois State team by 15 points while the Shockers lost to that same Illinois State team on the road by 15 points. I'll take the points with the better team that has proven it can beat quality competition on the road.

5* SEC Game of the Year (ESPN) on Alabama +2.5
Tough spot for the Vols tonight as they go out on the road for the first time this month to take on a Bama team that couldn't be hungrier after back-to-back losses. I know Tennessee has been playing hard in the wake of the loss of Tyler Smith, but it is these tough road contests where they will dearly miss his ability to create for himself and his teammates. It's also going to be extremely difficult for Tennessee to match the intensity of Alabama tonight after such an emotionally and physically draining overtime win over Ole Miss. A couple stats really stand out here. First off, Bama is on a 12-1 ATS run as a home underdog of 3 points or less, winning outright in these spots by an average score of 75.5 to 72.5. Secondly, Tennessee is on a 3-12 ATS skid when playing their 3rd game in a week. And there's more: The Volunteers are just 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this matchup and only 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Alabama. The Vols are also 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games following three or more consecutive home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Take the Tide.

3* NCAAB Monday Night SMASH on UNC Wilmington +17.5
Plays against favorites of 10 or more points in non-conference games, off a win against a conference rival, are 63-30 ATS the last 5 seasons. Basically, once conference play hits teams put a lot more focus on their conference games. Fresh off a big time blowout win over Miami, and with Wake Forest up next, it's going to be extremely difficult for Virginia to get up for this one. While this is also a non-conference game for Wilmington, smaller conference schools always love the opportunity to knock off a big guy. Off 3 straight losses straight up and ATS, look for the Seahawks to be a very motivated team tonight. The Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. The Cavaliers are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games vs. a team with a losing record and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. We'll take the points.

5* ACC Game of the Month (ESPN) on UNC -7
Off an embarrassing loss to Clemson, look for the Tar Heels to cruise at home today where they are 11-0 on the season. The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Plus, the Tar Heels are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points period. UNC is also 6-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Tech has struggled on the road, losing its last 2 away from home. We'll take the Heels in this highly motivated spot.

4* Major NCAAB Underdog of the Week on Ole Miss +7.5
Tennessee has persevered in the wake of its off the court problems, but I believe it finally catches up with them here against a very solid Ole Miss team. The Vols are clearly being overvalued in this spot, and we'll look to take advantage as the Rebs are 13-4 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Plus, this will be Tennessee's third game in a week, which can be very damaging to a team that relies on its pressure defense. In fact, Tennessee is only 3-11 ATS playing their 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout (ESPN 2) on St. Mary's -4
Let's just say the Gaels have had this one circled since last season. St. Mary's is sick and tired of playing second fiddle to the Zags in the WCC, and I like the Gaels to get the job done at home tonight. A loaded Gonzaga team only won by 2 points at St. Mary's last season when the Gaels didn't have Patty Mills at their disposal. In fact, Gonzaga had lost 3 of its last 4 at St. Mary's before last season's meeting. Now, the Gaels have the better team, in my opinion, and I don't think the inexperienced front court of the Bulldogs will have an answer for Omar Samhan, the best big man in the conference. The Bulldogs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings at St. Mary's and the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, but there's better ammo yet. The Gaels are a dominant 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 7-1 ATS as a home favorite this season. This is a statement game for the Gaels and I fully expect them to make that statement.

5* Big East Game of the Year (ESPN 2) on UConn -6
Pitt had UConn's number last season, sweeping the season series, but I expect payback from UConn tonight. Both teams have lost key contributors, but Pitt clearly lost more. UConn will be further motivated tonight by a loss at Georgetown in its last game. UConn led by as many as 19 in the first half in that game and took a 15-point lead to the locker room, but the Hoyas rallied for a 72-69 victory that left Jim Calhoun fuming mad. UConn is a perfect 10-0 at home this season where it is winning by 13.1 ppg. The Huskies are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Expect UConn to roll in this highly motivated spot.

3* SEC Game of the Week (ESPN) on Florida +3.5
While Kentucky is undefeated, it has had a number of scares, even against teams like Miami Ohio. What's the explanation? Kentucky is a young team. It has only played one true road game this season and it will not be ready for the environment it is about to step into. Florida has proven that it can play some ball, having already defeated Michigan State, and it will be extremely motivated to knock off the No. 2 team in the country, especially after enduring a loss in its last game. The Gators were once ranked as high as No. 10 this season and they know a win here will help then regain national respect. Kentucky is just 1-8 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points per game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Florida. Take the points.

4* Major NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Drake +6
Missouri State is getting too much respect here simply because the books know the betting public will jump on the Bears who have the much better record. Drake has been playing some good basketball. It just went to Creighton last week and played the Jays to a 4-point game as a 13-point dog. It then won at S. Illinois by 5 points as a 12.5-point Saturday. Expect Drake ride the momentum of that win to another solid performance tonight. Drake has won by double digits at home each of the last 2 seasons in this matchup so it will not be lacking any confidence tonight. The Bears have been a terrible bet in conference play recently as they are just 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. the Missouri Valley. Plus, they are 1-10 ATS off a home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and Drake is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog. We'll take the points.

3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Louisville -2.5
Expect Villanova to be emotionally and physically drained after escaping Marquette by the skin of its teeth barely 48 hours ago. Louisville is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and has won the last 3 SU & ATS as its pressure defense has been able to wear down the Wildcats. A big reason for Louisville's success is the Pitino factor. That's why the Cardinals are 42-13-2 ATS in their last 57 games against the Big East, including 18-6 ATS the last 2 seasons and winning by an average of 73.7 to 62.6 in those games. Few teams in the country are able to enforce their will on opponents the way Pitino's Cards do, and that is why they have had so much success. The Cardinals are also an impressive 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Wildcats have already lost at Temple by 10 points in a hostile environment, but with a whiteout slated in Louisville, I expect the level of hostility to be raised here. Take the Cards.

4* Major Non-Conference Game of the Week (CBS) on Kansas -5.5
Tennessee is not the same team without Tyler Smith and several other key contributors, and Kansas enters this game with renewed focus after getting a major scare from Cornell. These two things should add up to a double digit win for the Jayhawks today. While Tennessee is solid defensively, it's hard to ignore what the Jayhawks have done to good defensive teams in recent year. Kansas is 17-4 ATS versus good defensive teams, holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 78.2 to 63.4. Take Kansas.

3* NCAAB Letdown Game of the Week on The Citadel -2
We'll fade College of Charleston in a huge letdown spot after a big win over UNC. It's going to be impossible for the Cougars to get up for this game the same way while that win will only motivate The Citadel more. The Citadel swept Charleston last season with a pair of impressive wins and have now won 8 of the last 12 at home in this series. Charleston actually matches up better with UNC because it likes to play uptempo basketball. The slow down style of The Cit has given the Cougars fits. In fact, Charleston is 0-6 ATS versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 2 seasons. The Citadel is 18-6 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and I'll pound them here.