Sports Picks & Predictions

3* Big Ten/ACC Challenge SMASH (ESPN) on Maryland +4.5
The Illini are young and inexperienced - two things that won't bode well for them in their first true road game of the season.

The Terrapins played Illinois to a 4-point game on a neutral floor last season, and I like their chances of pulling off the upset at home tonight. Illinois needed to shoot 10 of 19 from three-point range in last year's meeting to get the win. I don't see an Illini team making just 6 threes a game at a 35.9% clip going off again.

Last year's Illinois squad was very experienced with Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale making the majority of the plays. These three fixtures have all moved on.

Maryland lost Jordan Williams, but fortunately brings back Terrell Stoglin, who can score points in bunches. He had 17 against Illinois last year.

It's been best to fade the Illini when they're laying points on the road. After all, they're 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games as a favorite.

Also, Illinois is 0-7 ATS since the beginning of the 2009 season when checking into a game off a home win in which it scored 85 points or more. The Illini have won in this situation but only by an average of 2.5 points.

Illinois is also 0-7 ATS since the start of 2009 in road games after leading in its previous game by 15 points or more at the half. It's lost by an average of 3.6 points in this situation. We'll take the Terps.

3* NCAAB *Marquee Matchup* (ESPN2) on Vandy -3
This Vandy team is talented, deep and experienced, and it has been a force to be reckoned with at home in non-conference play. In fact, the Commodores have won 38 of 41 home games against non-conference opponents since 2007.

Xavier is a solid team, but start guard Tu Holloway isn't 100%. He took only 4 shots against Georgia due to a finger injury. The Musketeers didn't need his offense against the Dawgs, but they will tonight.

Xavier has lost its last four road games against ranked opponents. Also, the Musketeers are 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Mack in road games when matched up against an opponent carrying a win percentage better than 80%. They have lost these games by an average of 9.1 points. Take Vandy.

3* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on W. Michigan +17
The Broncos are a much better team than they have showed thus far. They bring back all 5 starters from a team that won the MAC West last year and are picked to win it again.

I expect to see this team play harder than it has all season after getting embarrassed with a 43-point loss at Purdue. The Broncos shot an unheard of 17.8% from the field (8 of 45) in that game. Rest assured, the shots will fall much easier this afternoon.

Robert Sacre has been a beast for the Zags, but he won't get whatever he wants in this one. Western Michigan big man Matt Stainbrook will be motivated following the worst performance of his career and further motivated by the challenge of matching up with Sacre. Stainbrook averaged 19.5 points and 8.5 boards in the opening four games before being held scoreless with one rebound in 16 foul-plagued minutes of Wednesday's 80-37 loss.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, provided they have won 20% or less of their games on the season, are 32-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 14.5 points on average but have only lost by an average of 10.8. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Hawaii -10
Off back-to-back defeats, including an upset loss to E. Washington last game, expect this experienced Hawaii team to take out their frustrations on a Pacific squad that doesn't return a single starter.

The Tigers have played Hawaii twice in the last 12 years. They lost to the Warriors by 11 points on a neutral floor in the most recent meeting, and they were blown out by 30 in their most recent trip to the island.

The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Big West Conference.

The Tigers fell to 0-7 ATS in their last 7 lined games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 lined road games with a 24-point loss at Nevada on Nov. 17. We faded the Tigers as a 14-point dog for an easy cover that night and we'll fade them again here.

3* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on Youngstown State +9.5
I like Youngstown State catching close to double digits here because of the edge it has in terms of experience.

The Peguins return 5 of their top 7 scorers and four of those players are averaging better than 11 ppg this season.

The Nittany Lions have lost 4 of last year's top 5 scorers, including Taylor Battle, who averaged over 20 ppg. Tim Frazier, the lone returning starter, has stepped up, but the team has been far too reliant on him to score the points early on. He averages 20 ppg but no one else gets more than 7.4. Penn State's lack of offensive balance will be its Achilles' heel as more teams scheme to slow down Frazier.

The Penguins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

3* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on UNC-Wilmington +7.5
Following a solid showing at Maryland in its opener, UNC Wilmington laid an egg in Dayton, shooting 34.5% from the field and committing 20 turnovers in a 25-point loss. Motivated by that poor showing, expect the Seahawks to take Marshall right down to the wire tonight in their first home game of the season.

Marshall has taken care of three straight inferior opponents on its home floor but things get much tougher tonight as it hits the road for the first time.

The Seahawks have been a phenomenal investment in non-conference play, going 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference contests. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points while the Thundering Herd are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Herd are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

In addition, Buzz Peterson's teams are 12-3 ATS all-time when coming off an embarrassing road loss in which they were held to less than 60 points. His teams have actually responded to win by an average of 9.8 points in this situation. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on UL Monroe +20
This is a big letdown spot for Mississippi State following back-to-back upset wins over Texas A&M and Arizona.

The Bulldogs have been a terrible investment as a favorite, going just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games when laying points. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more. It's also worth noting that they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Sun Belt.

There are also a couple strong systems in play that stack the odds heavily against Mississippi State.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a losing record, are 71-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have been favored by an average of 19.8 points but have only won by an average of 17.2.

In addition, plays against home favorites of 20 or more points after going under the total by 18 or more points in their last three games, top level team winning 80% or more of their games on the season, are 21-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

3* Soft Line Slaughter on UMass -3.5
This game is all about revenge for the Minutemen, who lost at B.C. by 5 points last season. With 5 of last season's top scorers back, UMass should have its revenge.

The Eagles don't return a single starter and lost their 5 top scorers from last year's squad. To make matters worse, Patrick Heckmann, who scored 19 points in a win over New Hampshire, is still expected to be out with an ankle injury.

The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the ACC while the Eagles are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Atlantic 10. The Minutemen are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Boston College. Lay the points.

3* Saturday NCAAB *BEST BET* on Cal State Northridge +13
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to start the season, look for Cal State Northridge to give the Broncos a game this afternoon.

Boise State is being overvalued here following its big win over Utah. We can't forget the Broncos lost the top 4 scorers from last year's team. That's 4 players who averaged 9.9 points or more.

After a quality showing at USC, the Matadors were beat up at Hawaii. That wasn't unexpected considering the island advantage the Warriors have. The dors haven't played since Monday, so they'll be itching to get on the floor and bounce back from a disappointing performance against Hawaii.

The Broncos are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win of more than 20 points. They are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. They're also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more. Take the points.

5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Winthrop +18
Marquette rolled in its first two games, but it was helped out by opponents that don't do a very good job of taking card of the basketball. Mount St. Mary's turned it over 29 times and Norfolk State turned it over 25 times. Marquette faces a tougher challenge tonight against a Winthrop team that takes good care of the basketball and does a good job of controlling the tempo. Winthrop only has 23 turnovers through its first two games and committed only 10 giveaways versus Virginia Tuesday.

Winthrop lost that game by 21 points, but the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The score was tied at 44 with 9:37 remaining in the second half. Winthrop has retraced its steps and knows the mistakes it made down the stretch to allow the Cavs to pull away. It will be better prepared for tonight's matchup because of that game.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after a loss by 15 points or more and matched up against an opponent that scored 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 115-66 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have only lost by an average of 12.7 points.

Also, plays on neutral court teams underdogs after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more and matched up against an opponent that scored 80 points or more last game are 82-43 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have only lost by an average of 7.5 points. Take Winthrop.

3* Thursday Night NCAAB Blowout on Nevada -14
Motivated by back-to-back losses to start the season, and further motivated by 4 straight losses to Pacific, expect the Wolf Pack to roll tonight.

Nevada returns all 5 starters from last year's team while Pacific doesn't return a single starter. In fact, it lost 7 players who averaged 5.5 points or more. The 2 players it brings back averaged 1.4 points or less.

After laying an egg against Missouri State in their opener, the Wolf Pack put forth a good performance against a quality UNLV team to get a cover. Now, they'll be ready to take out their frustrations over an 0-2 start versus an inferior foe this evening.

The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Pacific is also 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Thomason when listed as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. It's lost these games by an average of 17.7 points. Lay the number.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Princeton +9.5
Princeton showed some first-game jitters against Wagner, committing a ridiculous 28 turnovers. That performance was a blessing in disguise for the Tigers, who will no doubt be sharper tonight because of it.

Princeton has been one of the better investments in recent years, especially in the underdog role, because its ability to control the tempo with its half court style of play keeps it in games. In fact, the Tigers are 34-19 ATS in all lines games since the beginning of the 2009 season.

Getting more specific to tonight's unique situation, we find the Tigers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the ACC.

The Tigers are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.

In addition, NC State is not at full strength. Top returning scorer C.J. Leslie doesn't return until Saturday. Take the points.

3* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on UCLA -9.5
Motivated by Friday's loss to Loyola Marymount, the Bruins will be out for blood this evening. There's no way they'll get caught overlooking MTSU because the Blue Raiders defeated Loyola Marymount Sunday.

I expect UCLA's season-opening wake-up call to serve it well. The suspension of Reeves Nelson is a further statement made by Ben Howland, and I expect his team to respond.

UCLA is 24-13 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points under Howland, whose teams are 11-2 ATS in home games following an upset loss since 1997.

Howland's teams are also 35-18 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached since 1997.

The message has been received from their coach. The Bruins will no doubt be geared up for this one. We'll lay the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Southern Illinois +7
Motivated by a disappointing loss to Ohio Dominican in its season opener, expect Southern Illinois to bounce back strong tonight.

The Salukis will have an excellent opportunity to do so against a St. Louis team that has struggled on the road under Rick Majerus.

The Billikens are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 non-conference road games. They have dropped these 11 non-conference road games by an average of 9.7 points.

The dominance of the home team in this series also can't be ignored. Consider that the home team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll take the points as the Salukis take the Billikens right down to the wire.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* on NC Greensboro +20.5
Look for this experienced NC Greensboro team, which returns 4 starters and 6 players who averaged at least 6.0 points, to bounce back from Friday's embarrassing loss to Tennessee.

The Spartans lost to the Vols by 29 points, but keep in mind that Tennessee went off from deep in that game, connecting on 15 of 24 three-point shots. That is a flukish total, and one that will inspire the Spartans to get after it a whole lot harder at the defensive end in this one.

Georgetown lost its top 2 scorers from last year's team and returns just 2 starters. After handling Savannah State and watching Tennessee crush NC Greensboro, I don't expect the Hoyas to give the Spartans their full attention. The Georgetown players are already thinking about their next game against Kansas.

Consider that plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points that are coming off a road loss, with 2 more starters returning from last year than their opponent, are 52-22 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation are losing by 11.5 points on average. It's also worth noting that this system is 30-8 ATS (79%) the last 3 seasons.

The Hoyas are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Spartans are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall, 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 13.0 points or more. Take the points.

3* Sunday NCAAB *BEST BET* on UC Davis +20.5
The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games versus teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Look for this trend to continue here.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss and playing with one or less days' rest are 121-70 ATS since 1997. That's a 63.4% cover rate the last 14 years. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of 12.4 points.

Motivated by back-to-back defeats to start the season, I'm expecting a great effort from the Aggies here. Plus, it will be tough for an inexperienced SDSU team to give UC Davis the attention it deserves. The Aztecs just beat Southern Utah 70-37. That Southern Utah team just upset Davis Friday. With this in mind, you can bet the Aztecs will be looking right past the Aggies and ahead to a matchup at Baylor Tuesday. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Evansville +3
Expect Butler to struggle early on as it tries to adjust to life without Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack. You might recall the Bulldogs struggling a little early last season as they were trying to adjust to life without NBA lottery pick Gordon Hayward.

As you know, Butler has made consecutive trips to the NCAA championship game. Evansville played Butler in each of those seasons. In 2009, the Purple Aces lost by just 4 points. Last year, they won on the road. Expect them to make it 2 in a row over the Bulldogs this afternoon.

Butler lost 53-50 in an exhibition game to Northern State, an NCAA Division II school from South Dakota. The Bulldogs clearly aren't at the level they were last season.

The Purple Aces are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on Columbia +24.5
Connecticut is almost always overvalued, and it is most certainly overvalued when coming off a national championship. Plenty of talent remains on Jim Calhoun's squad, but I believe it's going to take this team some time to adjust to life without Kemba Walker. We're talking about an experienced player who took every big shot all season long for this team.

Columbia returns four starters, including the Ivy League

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on Lehigh +13
St. John's covered the spread in its first game because of a plus-17 turnover margin. Other than that, the Johnnies weren't all that impressive. They allowed William & Mary to shoot nearly 46% from the field and were outrebounded. If Lehigh can take care of the basketball, it can give St. John's a game tonight.

Lehigh is an experienced team with 4 starters returning, including Patriot League Preseason Player of the Year C.J. McCollum, who is the leading returning scorer in the nation after putting up 21.8 ppg last season. He is a pure scorer who can get his own shot almost any time. That's a huge asset when the shot clock is winding down.

There is some talent on St. John's, but this team is very young and inexperienced. It's going to go through ups and downs throughout the season, and I'm expecting it to struggle tonight against an experienced team.

Last season, these two played two like opponents (Wagner and Fordham), going 1-1 against them respectively. St, John's defeated Wagner by 8 points and Lehigh defeated it by 16 points. The Red Storm lost to Fordham by 3 points and the Hawks lost to it by 7 points. This just goes to show you Lehigh had the ability to play with St. John's last year when the Red Storm were a lot more experienced.

Lehigh is 6-0 ATS all-time in all lined games under coach Reed. Look for this trend to continue tonight.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on William & Mary +8.5
Expect St. John's to struggle this season, especially early on, after losing 10 seniors from last season's NCAA Tournament team. In fact, the Red Storm lost all but 3.7 percent of the scoring from last year's team. We're talking about a very inexperienced squad that will have to learn on the job. The fact coach Steve Lavin has been away recovering from prostate surgery hasn't done this young group any favors either.

W&M brings back a lot more experience and chemistry with four starters returning. Don't be fooled by the Tribe's 10-22 record last season. This is a competitive team that lost 10 games by 5 points or fewer.

The Tribe are an impressive 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing away from home as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus the Big East. The Red Storm are a poor 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the Tribe and the points.

4* 32-0 ATS Championship Game *BEST BET* on Butler +3.5
Butler is a perfect 10-0 ATS in all tournament games this season, winning these contests by an average score of 69.6 to 62.1. It is also 10-0 ATS in all NCAA tournament over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 65.0 to 60.0. It is also worth noting that the Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less.

These trends complete our perfect angle, but I have also uncovered several other trends that provide further support. The Bulldogs are 22-4-2 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 23-6 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games as an underdog, 18-5 ATS in their last 23 NCAA Tournament games and 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Huskies, meanwhile, are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points.

No team has been more prepared or executed better than Butler in the NCAA tournament the last 2 years and I expect no different tonight. Take the points.

5* Never Lost Final Four *BEST BET* on Kentucky -2
Respect is given to this UConn team, which kicked Kentucky in November and has caught fire late in the season, but that isn't enough to pull me off the Wildcats.

Kentucky was a young team still finding its way when these schools first met. It is a much different team now, one with toughness and poise. One that has defeated No. 1 overall seed Ohio State and No. 2 seed North Carolina.

The Wildcats were able to avenge an earlier season loss to North Carolina in the Elite Eight, and that should come as no surprise. After all, Kentucky is 8-1 ATS when playing away from home in a revenge spot under coach Calipari, winning in this situation by an average of 11.7 points. If playing away from home and out to avenge an upset loss, this trend tightens up to a perfect 6-0 ATS with an average winning margin of 12.1 points.

With great size, length and athletic ability, the Wildcats held Ohio State, which ranked 2nd in the country in field goal percentage, to just 32.8 percent shooting. This is what the Wildcats are capable of and this is what I believe we'll see this evening. Take Kentucky.

3* NIT Championship SMASH (ESPN2) on Alabama +2
Alabama's defense will be the difference tonight. The Tide rank 7th in the country with only 59.2 ppg allowed while holding the opposition to 38.3% shooting (4th nationally). They also force a lot of turnovers. They got Miami to Cough it up 19 times in the quarterfinals and Colorado 16 times in the semifinals.

The Shockers have benefited at times from playing teams that live and die by the 3-point shot. Bama is not one of those teams. It likes to get in the paint, putting a lot of pressure on opposing defenses. With this in mind, it is worth noting that the Shockers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games (after 15-plus games into the season) versus teams who attempt 14 or less 3 point shots per game.

While Wichita State is also a good defensive team, it doesn't put as much pressure on its foes as Alabama. As a result, it doesn't force as many turnovers. This is significant because Bama is 14-5 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Tide are defeating these teams by an average score of 68.7 to 60.6. Take the Tide.

3* NIT SMASH (ESPN2) on Wichita State -3
I'm confident Washington State wouldn't be playing in the NIT semifinals if it had to play a game on the road to get here. We're talking about a team that is just 3-8 in its last 11 road/neutral floor games.

Wichita State, meanwhile, has gone on the road during the NIT and it upset top seed Virginia Tech. Overall, the Shockers are 13-4 in road/neutral court games this season.

The Shockers are the superior defensive team, allowing nearly 5.0 points less per game. They also have experience in playing teams with legit go-to guys. Wichita State played against Charleston's Andrew Goudelock last round and allowed him to get his while locking up everyone else. And Goudelock had to work extremely hard for his points. He made a couple 3-pointers from 30-plus feet. I expect a similar strategy to work against Washington State and Klay Thompson this evening.

The Shockers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Also, the Cougars are 14-30-2 ATS in their last 46 games as an underdog and 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Take the Shockers.

3* Elite 8 SMASH on Kansas -11
Since getting upset by #9 seed Northern Iowa last year, Kansas has been on a mission. The Jayhawks have destroyed each of their opponents in the Big Dance by a minimum of 14 points.

VCU looked very human against FSU. Kansas is nearly as strong defensively as the Noles, holding foes to just 39.4% shooting on the season, and it is much stronger offensively.

It's been a great run for VCU but Kansas is on another level right now, and I fully expect it to flex its muscles in this matchup. The Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. They are also 22-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, defeating these foes by an average of 13.1 points. Lay the points.

4* Elite 8 *Power Play* on UConn -2.5
If UConn was able to get past the long, athletic defensive-minded Aztecs of San Diego State, it can certainly get by an Arizona squad that is much weaker defensively.

The Wildcats are a great story, and they have some talent, but they don't have Kemba Walker. No player remaining in the dance has more ice water in their veins. Plus, stud frosh Jeremy Lamb is playing with extreme confidence right now and that has taken the Huskies to another level.

We also can't ignore that UConn has been the best tournament team in the nation this season. Why? Walker has consistently played big in the biggest games whether it has been the Maui Invitational, Big East Tourney or Big Dance. In fact, UConn is an awesome 11-0 ATS in all tournament games this season, winning them by an average of 11.3 points. The Huskies are also a sick 8-0 ATS against non-conference foes this season and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against Arizona.

Arizona is riding high off an improbable blowout of Duke, and I don't think it can match that performance against the unflappable Huskies. Lay the points.

5* Never Lost Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Florida -4
The Gators were clearly better than BYU, but they allowed the Cougars to hang around by shooting just 45% (10 of 22) from the free throw line. That's a large departure from their season average of 66.4%. Fortunately, history tells us that terrible performance from the foul line will have the Gators very focused today. Consider that the Gators have never lost under coach Donovan when playing away from home following a game in which shot 53 percent or worse from the charity stripe. Florida is a perfect 8-0 ATS in this situation with an average winning margin of 13.0 points.

In addition, the Gators are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Butler is gritty and tough, but that won't be enough against this superior Florida squad. The Bulldogs have overachieved to this point and Florida has the right combination of size and athleticism to take them out. Lay the number.

5* Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Florida State -4
FSU is big, long, athletic and deep, and these things help make it a tenacious defensive team. FSU's defense is currently hitting on all cylinders, having held its first 2 NCAA tournament opponents to 31.4% and 31.7% shooting respectively. On the season, the Seminoles rank No. 1 in the country in field goal percentage defense, holding their foes to just 36.0% shooting. The defense should be even better tonight as Chris Singleton, voted the ACC defensive player of the year by league coaches, is coming off his two best practices since breaking his right foot. He has gotten his feet wet and his confidence back in FSU's first 2 games. Now, he's ready to make even more of an impact this evening.

Going along with playing great defense, FSU is an outstanding rebounding team, averaging 5.0 more boards per game than its opponent. This bodes well for us considering VCU is just 2-9 ATS versus good rebounding teams (outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game) this season. VCU is also 1-8 ATS after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

The Seminoles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Defense is something we can count on out of Florida State. The Noles bring it every night, and I expect it to be the difference here. Lay the points.

5* Sweet 16 *BEST BET* on Wisconsin -4.5
Butler used up the last of its 9 lives against Pitt. After back-to-back miraculous victories, the defending national runner-ups are primed for a major letdown.

It will be extremely difficult for the Bulldogs to pull off another upset here. Butler has been able to take advantage of teams beating themselves by taking bad shots, turning the ball over, missing free throws, etc, but Wisconsin doesn

4* Sweet 16 CA$H COW (TBS) on Florida -3
This game is all about revenge for the Gators, who return all the key guys from a team that took BYU to overtime before losing in last year's Big Dance. That loss is all the motivation the Gators need to move on to the Elite Eight.

Jimmer Fredette has been sensational, but I'm confident Billy Donovan will be able to slow him down this time around. I absolutely love Donovan's experience in this matchup, having been here and won it all twice before.

The Gators are led by SEC Player of the Year Chandler Parsons. The 6-foot-10 forward is one of the most versatile threats in the country. The matchup problems he will be able to cause against a smaller BYU lineup will be a major key to Florida's success this evening.

The Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. The Cougars are 30-62-2 ATS in their last 94 games as an underdog, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Jimmer and the Cougars shot lights out against Gonzaga, but recent history tells us the chances of that happening again aren't very good. In fact, BYU is 0-6 ATS after a game in which it made 13 or more 3 point shots over the last 2 seasons. Take the Gators.

3* Sweet 16 SMASH (CBS) on San Diego State +1.5
It's been the Kemba Walker show to this point, but the Aztecs have the length and athleticism to make life extremely difficult on him this evening.

San Diego State has been all over the glass, which bodes very well for us this evening. Consider that SDSU is 11-0 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. The Aztecs are also an impressive 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less while the Huskies are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

SDSU has experience playing against a team with a big time scorer. It allowed Jimmer Fredette to score 30 points in an 18-point win in the MWC tournament title game, but it held everyone else in check. I think this strategy will work again tonight. Walker may get his, but it won be enough. Take the Aztecs.

4* NIT *BEST BET* on Wichita State -7.5
Wichita State enters tonight's NIT quarterfinal with a ton of confidence after knocking off top seed VA Tech on the road Sunday. Now, the Shockers are back at home where they have been taking opponents to school all season.

Wichita State is 13-4 in its own gym, where it is winning by 13.7 points per game. Nebraska came to Charles Koch Arena in the NIT first round and it left with a 27-point defeat.

After defeating Dayton at home, Charleston was able to pull off an upset at Cleveland State. That win, however, isn't enough to sell me on the Cougars away from home. Just a few weeks back, the Cougars were handled by 15 and 8 points respectively by Appalachian State and Western Carolina - two teams inferior to tonight's opponent.

Home court has been huge for Wichita State all season, and I expect nothing to change tonight. Lay the number as the much deeper Shockers wear the Cougars down to earn the win and cover.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Santa Clara +2.5
This is a game the Broncos want badly. They lost both regular season meetings with the Dons, but I fully expect the third time to be a charm. Santa Clara was favored in both of those matchups, which is an indication the books felt it was the better team. I believe the Broncos are the better team, and I expect them to prove it in this highly motivated spot.

San Francisco is just 17-35 ATS in its last 52 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick. In addition, the Broncos are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings at San Francisco and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings overall. It is also worth noting that the Broncos are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less.

Kevin Foster was 4 of 18, including 0 of 10 from 3-point range, when the Broncos fell by just 6 points at San Francisco last month. Motivated by that poor outing and beaming with confidence following a 36-point effort against Air Force, expect Foster to be the difference-maker in this one. Take the points.

4* NIT *BEST BET* on Washington State -5
When playing away from home, Oklahoma State has been one of the worst investments in college basketball in recent years. The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in road lined games this season and 1-7 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. It is also worth noting that OK State is just 4-12 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game - after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons, losing to these foes by an average score of 72.9 to 61.8.

In addition, the Cowboys are an awful 5-18 ATS as a road underdog or pick under coach Ford, losing these contests by an average score of 77.7 to 65.9. Looking back further, they are 15-37-2 ATS in their last 54 games as a road underdog. The Cougars, meanwhile, are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. They get the call tonight.

5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Purdue -9
VCU has strung together back-to-back impressive performances against USC and Georgetown, but its Cinderella run comes to an end here.

The Rams have reached the round of 32 because of the great equalizer - the 3-point short. They were +24 points from beyond the arc against USC and +21 against Georgetown.

Purdue is one of the elite defensive teams in the country. It held its 1st round opponent (St. Peter's) to 23.8% (5 of 21) from three-point range, and I expect it to force the Rams into much more difficult looks as well.

Double-digit wins are nothing out of the ordinary for the Boilermakers. Of their 26 victories, 22 have come by at least 10 points.

This is a quality VCU team, but it isn't as good as some of the teams we've seen in the dance in recent years. Purdue, meanwhile, boasts a very experienced and talented squad. Expect the Boilermakers to do an excellent job of defending the three and for JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore to be too much for the Rams to handle. Lay the points.

5* Big Dance *BEST BET* on Wisconsin -3
K-State had its fun a year ago when it made a deep run in the dance. Now it's Wisconsin's turn. Motivated by last year's poor performance in the second round, I expect Wisconsin to cruise into the Sweet 16.

K-State isn't as good as it was a season ago when Jacob Pullen benefited from partner in crime Denis Clemente. The Badgers, meanwhile, are better due to the emergence of Jordan Taylor.

Wisconsin has more offensive balance and it is the superior defensive team. The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Big 12, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

The Wildcats are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog. Lay the points.

3* NCAA Tourney *Afternoon Delight* on UCLA +5.5
Getting a scare from Michigan State late, in a game the Bruins controlled throughout, should have them very focused when they hit the floor against Florida this afternoon. The Gators, meanwhile, won't have the same focus, likely riding a little too high following their extreme blowout win over UCSB.

Besides the situational parameters described above, I don't think UCLA is getting the credit it deserves here. We're talking about a team that played Kansas to a 1-point game on the road and defeated BYU and St. John's when they were at full strength. Florida was blown out at home by Ohio State by 18 points and many of its good wins have come by narrow margins.

The Bruins are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. UCLA has been at its best against the best this season, and I expect no different here.

3* NCAA Tournament *Undervalued Underdog* on Georgia +5.5
Washington was able to win the Pac-10 tourney, but only by the skin of its teeth. Two of its wins came by just 2 points and one of those was in overtime. Washington failed to cover the number in both of those games and is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6.

The Huskies are not the same team that made a nice little run in last year's big dance. I've seen one example after another this season of how badly they miss Quincy Pondexter.

Georgia is coming off a loss to Alabama in the SEC tourney, but that actually bodes well for us here. Consider that the Dawgs are 18-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by an average score of 69.4 to 64.6 in these spots. Also, the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.

The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.

The Huskies barely made it out of round 1 last year, sneaking past Marquette by just 2 points. I'll take this generous number in another matchup that should go right down to the wire.

5* NCAA Tournament *BEST BET* on Georgetown -5.5
Motivated by 4 straight losses to close out the season, expect this experienced Georgetown team to bounce back strong in round 1 of the dance.

The Hoyas will also draw motivation from last year's shocking loss to Ohio in the round of 64.

Georgetown should also get a boost from the return of Chris Wright. They've been without his 13.1 ppg since Feb. 23.

Georgetown has proven that it is a force to be reckoned with on a neutral floor. The Hoyas, in fact, are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite.

VCU is coming off a big win over USC in Wednesday's play-in game and that bodes extremely well for us here. Consider that the Rams are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Lay the points.

4* Big Dance Early Money on Texas -10
Oakland has played some top notch competition this season, but it has really struggled in these games. The Grizzlies lost to West Virginia by 24, Purdue by 15, Illinois by 11, Michigan by 18 and Ohio State by 29. In other words, Texas should have no problem taking care of business here.

Texas will not be lacking any motivation following a disappointing performance against Kansas in the Big 12 tourney title game. Plus, the Longhorns will draw added motivation from a 1-point overtime loss to Wake Forest in the first round of the 2010 big dance.

The fact that Oakland enters the tourney on a hot streak actually bodes well for us. Consider that plays against an underdog - hot team having won 8 or more of its last 10 games, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament, are 38-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 16.7 points.

Texas is an impressive 20-9 ATS in all lined games this season. The Longhorns are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take Texas.

4* NCAA Tournament Round 1 Steal on Bucknell +10
Riding high emotionally and still physically drained from winning 5 games in 5 days to take the Big East tournament, UConn is primed for a letdown. While I think Kemba Walker and company will find a way to win this one, I think the Bison are a steal catching double digits.

Bucknell is not a school to be taken lightly in this tournament. The Bison have actually won their last two first round games in the big dance, upsetting Kansas in 2005 and Arkansas in 2006. Some of you might recall that Kansas was a #3 seed in the 2005 dance.

It most certainly can't be ignored that UConn is just 4-12 ATS in all first round tournament games under coach Calhoun. Also under Calhoun, the Huskies are 69-84 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points and 26-39 ATS in road games after 5 or more consecutive wins. Take the points.

5* NCAA Tournament Round 1 Game of the Year on Wofford +8.5
BYU clearly isn't the same team without Brandon Davies, going just 2-3 ATS with a pair or blowout losses since his suspension. I believe the Cougars would have their hands full with Wofford even if Davies was in the lineup.

Wofford brings back 4 starters from a team that played Wisconsin to a 4-point game in the first round of last year's NCAA tournament. That loss is all the motivation the Terriers need to give the Cougars a run for the money.

BYU has been a terrible investment in tournament play. In fact, it is just 4-13 ATS in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.

The Terriers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points, 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning SU record. Take the points.

4* NCAA Tournament Big Chalk Blowout on Florida -13
Florida enters the big dance off an embarrassing loss to Kentucky in the SEC tournament championship game. You might also recall that the Gators were defeated in OT in the first round of the NCAA tourney a year ago. Both of these defeats should serve as more than enough motivation for the Gators to run up the score on UC Santa Barbara.

The Gauchos are just happy to be here after upsetting a Long Beach State squad in the Big West tourney title game that has defeated them by 16 and 18 points during the regular season. Already feeling great about what they've accomplished, the Gauchos won't be ready for a Florida squad that is a legit Final Four contender.

Florida also has the good fortune of playing this one close to home in Tampa while Santa Barbara has had to make the long cross-country trip.

The Gators are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games overall. The Gauchos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 13.0 points or more. Having won two national titles, Billy Donovan knows how to prepare his kids. They'll be ready to go in this spot. Lay the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Wichita State -4
Nebraska has struggled on the road all season, going 2-10 in all away games and 1-7 in true road contests. Nebraska's road struggles extend much further back than this and those struggles have also been reflected against the point spread. Consider that the Cornhuskers are 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 road games and 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less.

Wichita State is a rock solid 12-4 at home this season with an average winning margin of 12.8 points. It is worth noting that the Shockers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and the Huskers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus the Missouri Valley.

The Shockers are deep and talented, and they play at both ends of the floor. With the home court advantage on their side, expect them to stretch this one out late.

3* Never Lost NCAAB *Undervalued Underdog* on Miami Ohio +8.5
Miami Ohio is a better team than its record might lead you to believe. The Redhawks went out and scheduled Duke, San Diego State, Ohio State, Xavier, Cincinnati and Kansas. Playing this top notch competition helped Miami during its conference schedule and should help it during this tournament.

The Redhawks actually defeated Xavier by 11 points, a team Rhode Island lost to by 27 on its home floor. What this proves is that Miami Ohio can certainly hang with the Rams this evening.

The over/under line often tells us a lot about what odds makers expect the outcome to be against the spread, and I believe that is the case tonight. Fading the Rams at home when they are facing a total between 130 to 134.5 has never lost under coach Baron. This trend is a perfect 9-0 ATS all-time.

It is also worth noting that the Rams are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. The Red Hawks are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Take the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on Charleston -5
Tough break for higher seed Dayton having to go on the road because the Opening Round NCAA Tournament games are taking place in its gym. I believe that break will cost the Flyers. In addition, it will be difficult for Dayton to bounce back so quickly after losing to Richmond Sunday with a big dance berth on the line. This is not where the Flyers want to be playing.

Charleston has had a week to prepare for a game, and it should benefit from playing at home, where it is 12-1 this season with an average victory margin of 16.0 points. The Cougars are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

Lastly, it will be to Dayton's demise that Charleston takes extremely good care of the rock. Consider that Dayton is 0-6 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game this season, losing to these foes by an average of 8.2 points. Lay the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Duke -3.5
This game is all about payback for Duke. The Blue Devils have been on a mission in the ACC tournament following a loss to UNC in the regular season finale that cost them a league title. They have looked impressive in wins over Maryland and VA Tech while UNC has been lucky to survive Miami and Clemson. Expect Duke, which has won 9 of the last 12 ACC tournament titles, to complete its mission today.

Going to the numbers, we find that plays on favorites looking to avenge a road loss to an opponent, provided the chalk team is playing its 2nd game away from home in 3 days, are 64-29 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 7.6 points.

In addition, UNC is just 2-10 ATS in all conference tournament games under Roy Williams. It is also worth noting that the Tar Heels are a lousy 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Duke, meanwhile, is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or fewer. Take Duke.

5* MWC Game of the Year on San Diego State -2
BYU is not the same team without Brandon Davies, which has me confident that San Diego State can avenge its 2 previous defeats to the Cougars this season.

The Aztecs are an impressive 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Cougars are a dismal 30-61-2 ATS in their last 93 games as an underdog and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win.

Fredette had to go off big time for the Cougars to make the title game, and I don't see SDSU letting that happen here, especially since the Aztecs allowed him to score 40-plus during the season. Motivated by those two prior defeats, expect the third time to be a charm for SDSU.

4* Pac-10 Tourney *Power Play* on Washington -2
Washington looked to be the better team in its matchups with Arizona during the regular season. The Huskies defeated the Wildcats by 17 at home and lost by a single point on the road. Defending tournament champion Washington, which is looking to atone for a disappointing regular season, should prove to be the better side on a neutral floor today.

Plays on neutral court teams - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG) after 15+ games and after a win by 10 points or more, are an impressive 29-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 10.1 points.

Also, the Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take the Huskies.

5* Pac-10 Game of the Year on Washington -9
Oregon has strung together a couple wins in the Pac-10 tourney, but I believe the Ducks will run out of gas tonight. Riding high off a blowout win over UCLA, Oregon is primed for a major letdown.

The Huskies got a big monkey off their back by finally defeating rival Washington State. Now, I expect them to have their revenge against Oregon. Washington defeated the Ducks by 18 points in the season's first meeting and then got beat overlooking them in the next matchup. That loss will serve as the driving force behind a comfortable win tonight.

Going to the numbers, we find that plays on favorites out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, playing their 2nd away game in 3 days, are 40-15 ATS the last 3 seasons.

In addition, Oregon is 4-12 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Lay the points.

3* SEC SMASH on Tennessee +3.5
After losing to Florida in OT and by 1 point in 2 meetings this season, expect the Vols to break through against the Gators this evening.

Tennessee has been one of the most impressive underdogs in the country in recent years. In fact, the Volunteers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 28-11-1 ATS in their last 40 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that Florida is just 5-13 ATS as a favorite this season.

Also, Tennessee has either defeated the Gators or lost by fewer than 3 points in 11 of the last 15 meetings. Take Tennessee.

3* Big 12 Tourney *BEST BET* on Missouri -3
After taking the Aggies to OT on the road during the regular season, I expect the Tigers to have their revenge in front of a home atmosphere in Kansas City, MO.

Plays on a favorite looking to avenge a road loss to an opponent, provided they are playing their 2nd game away from home in 3 days, are an impressive 61-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 7.9 points.

In addition, the Tigers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Texas A&M won the regular season meeting and is ranked. Yet, Mizzou is the team laying points. Odds makers know what a big difference having the crowd support can mean in these games. Expect the Tigers to feed off the energy of the crowd on their way to a win and cover.

3* Big Ten Tourney *BEST BET* on Indiana +4.5
Indiana has lost 8 in a row, but with thousands of Hoosiers packed inside Conseco, coach Crean's club will feed off the fan support to cover this number.

Going to the numbers, we find that plays on neutral court teams looking to avenge a home loss to an opponent and off at least 2 straight losses against conference rivals, are a dominant 40-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have only lost by an average of 1.6 points.

The Nittany Lions have been terrific when playing the role of the underdog, but they haven't fared nearly as well when the shoe's on the other foot. In fact, the Nittany Lions are 2-5-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. We'll take the points.

3* Conference Tourney Super System Power Play on Oregon pk
The Ducks struggled down the stretch, losing their last 4, and they were also swept in the regular-season series with ASU. Motivated by a poor finish, and those 2 losses to the Sun Devils, expect the third time to be a charm for Oregon.

Oregon proved what it is capable of this season with wins over USC, Washington State and Washington, and I expect it to play up to its potential in this same-season double revenge spot.

History is certainly on our side here, considering plays on neutral court teams out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, if that foe is coming off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are an impressive 32-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is 16-4 ATS the last 3 seasons and 1-0 ATS this season.

It is also worth noting that ASU has lost its last 7 games away from home. Expect the Ducks to break through against the Sun Devils tonight.

4* Double Never Lost Conference Tourney Blowout on Baylor -7
Motivated by back-to-back losses to close out the regular season, and an upset loss at Oklahoma on Feb. 2, Baylor will be ready to roll tonight.

In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are looking to avenge an upset loss on the road to an opponent - a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record - are 32-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 13.3 points.

I have also uncovered 2 play against trends that have never lost. Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Capel as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Sooners have lost these contests by an average of 16.2 points. Also, Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Capel in conference tournament games, losing these contests by an average of 8.3 points.

We'll lay the points with Baylor in this motivated spot.

4* NCAAB Conference Tournament Blowout on Akron -12.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses to close out the regular season, and further motivated by an upset loss at Eastern Michigan last month, expect Akron to run up the score tonight.

Home court will prove to be huge for the Zips tonight. They have won 7 straight on their home floor. Eastern Mich, meanwhile, has dropped its last 7 on the road.

The Zips are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The home team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Akron.

The Zips have won their last 3 home games against the Eagles by an average of 18.0 points. We'll lay the number in this highly motivated spot.

3* CAA Championship SMASH (ESPN) on VCU +5
VCU enters tonight's CAA championship game with tons of momentum on its side after taking down top seed George Mason by 16 points Sunday. Plus, it has a bone to pick with Old Dominion.

The Monarchs defeated the Rams last month and they also knocked them out of the CAA tourney a season ago. Those two defeats assure us that VCU will be very hungry and focused tonight.

VCU has either defeated Old Dominion or lost by 4 points or less in 9 of the last 10 and 12 of the last 14 meetings.

The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The Monarchs, meanwhile, are juts 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games as a favorite. Take the points.

4* Never Lost Big Ten *BEST BET* on Minnesota -4.5
It's been a disappointing season for the Gophers, but I fully expect them to put all that behind them on senior day. Motivated by 4 straight defeats and a 3-point loss at Penn State last month, expect Minnesota to take out its frustrations on a Nittany Lions squad that is just 2-8 when playing away from home this season.

Minnesota enters off an extremely disappointing performance at Northwestern, but that actually bodes well for us today. Consider that Minnesota is a perfect 6-0 ATS under coach Smith in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more. The Golden Gophers are winning in this situation by an average score of 71.7 to 50.2.

The Nittany Lions are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less and 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings at Minnesota. We'll take the Gophers in this one.

4* Big 12 Game of the Week on Colorado -4.5
Motivated by a loss to the league-worst Iowa State in its last game, and a loss at Nebraska earlier this season, expect Colorado to bury the Huskers Saturday evening.

Taking Colorado off a defeat has been pure gold. In fact, the Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. We also can't overlook the dominance of the home team in this series. The home squad is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Cornhuskers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Colorado.

Colorado has been tough as nails at home where it is 14-2 this season. It has won its last two home games over two of the best teams in the league (Kansas State, Texas). Nebraska, meanwhile, has struggled on the road. The Huskers are just 1-6 in true road games. Lay the points.

5* WAC Game of the Year on New Mexico State -5.5
The Aggies are a much better team than their record might lead you to believe. They are especially tough at home, where they are 6-1 in league play. That lone loss came by a narrow margin to league champ Utah State Wednesday. That was New Mexico State's 4th straight defeat, and it will have the Aggies extremely motivated here on senior night.

New Mexico State will be further motivated by an embarrassing 19-point loss at Nevada earlier this season.

All 6 of the Aggies' WAC home wins have come by at least 8 points. They should have no trouble covering this number against a Nevada squad that is just 3-12 away from home this season. The Aggies are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Wolf Pack are just 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games versus a team with a losing SU record. Lay the points.

4* In-state Rivalry Showdown on Oklahoma +1
I fully expect Oklahoma to bring its 8-game losing streak to an end today. While the Cowboys have been solid at home, they have been atrocious on the road. In fact, Oklahoma State has lost it last 8 road contests, and 6 of those defeats have come by double digits. The Cowboys are a dismal 19-41-2 ATS in their last 62 road games. Also, they are only 4-13 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 75.0 to 65.4.

The Sooners are 11-4 at home this season, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Look for the Sooners to leave it all on the floor to come away with a win on senior day.

4* SEC Game of the Month on Alabama -4.5
If Bama wants any chance of making the Big Dance, it better win today. Motivated by back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing loss at Florida, I expect the Tide to do just that.

Alabama is a perfect 15-0 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.2 points. The Crimson Tide are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. They are also 14-5 ATS in their last 19 vs. the SEC.

In addition, Bama has never lost under coach Grant when facing a poor pressure defensive team (forcing 14 or less turnovers/game) 15-plus games into the season. The Tide are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus these foes, taking them down by an average score of 67.7 to 55.3. Bet Bama.

4* MVC Tourney *BEST BET* on Drake +1
Extremely motivated by a 90-64 loss at Bradley in their regular season finale, expect the Bulldogs to pay the Braves back in the first round of the MVC tourney.

Right away I love the fact that plays on neutral court underdogs coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, and going up against an opponent off a home win, are 74-36 ATS since 1997. This system is already a perfect 3-0 ATS this season.

One thing you don't want to do is play against Drake when it is coming off a defeat. That's because the Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points, 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing SU record and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Drake tonight.

3* Pac-10 Power Play on Arizona -15
The Wildcats will be hungry tonight. Motivated by back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing 71-49 loss at UCLA last game, and out to avenge a 1-point loss at Oregon State earlier this season, expect Arizona to roll at home this evening. The Cats will be further motivated by the fact that a win guarantees them at least a share of the Pac-10 title.

Arizona is a perfect 15-0 at home, where it is winning by an average of 16.6 points. Oregon State is just 1-10 when playing away from home this season, including 0-7 in Pac-10 play. Those 7 defeats have come by an average of 17.7 points.

In addition, Arizona is 9-1 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Beavers, meanwhile, are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Lay the points with Arizona in this highly motivated spot.

4* NCAAB *Underdog Shocker* on New Mexico State +7
Utah State doesn't have anything left to play for. It has already locked up a school-record fourth consecutive Western Athletic Conference regular-season title. New Mexico State, meanwhile, has plenty on the line. It can grab the No. 2 seed to earn a double-bye in the WAC tourney by winning its final 2 regular-season games.

New Mexico State is undefeated at home (6-0) in conference play, and it will no doubt be jacked up to take on the best team in the league. The fact that New Mexico State enters off three straight defeats means it will play with an even greater sense of desperation here.

New Mexico State defeated the Utah State Aggies in the WAC tourney last year, and it hasn't had much trouble with Utah State at home in recent years. In fact, New Mexico State has won 7 of the last 9 at home in this series.

New Mexico State is 9-2 ATS when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. It is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 home games and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on Alabama +6
I'm taking the points in a game that should go right down to the wire. Alabama lost by just 1 point to Florida in last season's meeting, and the Tide will be out to return the favor here.

Alabama won the SEC West but still finds itself in a precarious position for an at-large berth. It likely needs a strong showing this week and potentially a deep run in the SEC tourney for its first Big Dance bid since 2006. With this in mind, the Tide know a win over Florida tonight would go a long way toward earning them an at-large NCAA tourney berth.

Florida looks to be the class of the SEC this season, but it has not proven that it can be trusted laying points. The Gators are just 4-13 ATS as a favorite this season and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite. The Crimson Tide are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. the SEC, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Lastly, it is worth noting that the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.

3* Monday NCAAB *BEST BET* on Idaho State +7
The Bengals will be lacking no motivation in their final home contest. As if a 20-point loss at N. Colorado last month isn't enough motivation, a brutally embarrassing 63-39 loss to Weber State last game will fuel the fire.

The Bears have been far dominant away from home, where they are 6-10 this season. In fact, they have either lost or won by fewer than 7 points in 13 of those 16 contests. The Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

The Bengals, meanwhile, have been competitive at home, where they are 7-4 on the season. They have either won or lost by 7 points or less in 9 of their 11 home games. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.

In addition, plays on a home team out to avenge a loss to an opponent in which it was held to less than 50 points and coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a conference rival, are 35-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of 4.3 points. Take Idaho State.

3* Sunday NCAAB *BEST BET* on LaSalle -1.5
Really believe odds makers are tipping their hand here by inserting LaSalle as the favorite following 3 consecutive losses SU and ATS. The Explorers' most recent defeat was a brutally embarrassing one (100-62) at Xavier. As if that loss isn't enough to get LaSalle's blood boiling, last month's narrow defeat at UMass should do the trick.

The Explorers haven't had much trouble with the Minutemen lately. Prior to their January loss, they had won 4 in a row over UMass by a minimum of 6 points. LaSalle's 2 home wins during this stretch have come by 9 and 11 points respectively. 4 starters are back from the team that defeated the Minutemen at home by 11 last year.

The Minutemen are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings at La Salle. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Lastly, the Minutemen are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. We'll get behind the home team in this highly motivated spot.

3* National TV SMASH (CBS) on Kentucky -7.5
Called out by Coach Cal following Wednesday's upset loss at Arkansas, and out to avenge a 2-point loss at Florida earlier this month, expect the Wildcats to put forth one of their best efforts of the entire season to cover this number.

Betting against Kentucky at home has not been a smart move this season. That's because the Wildcats are 13-0 on their home floor with an average winning margin of 23.8 points.

Revenge has been the ideal angle for backing Kentucky. In fact, the Wildcats are an impressive 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games when looking to avenge an upset loss on the road to an opponent. Kentucky is winning by an average score of 72.5 to 61.3 in this situation. It is also worth noting that Coach Cal's teams are 10-2 ATS when looking to avenge an upset road loss to an opponent since 1997, winning by an average score of 75.1 to 60.2 in these contests. Lay the points with the Wildcats.

5* Big East Game of the Year on Villanova -6
St. John's, which has been getting all kinds of hype during its 5-game win streak, is primed for a letdown. Villanova, which is in danger of losing 3 straight at home for the first time in 17 seasons, will be extremely hungry today. These two factors alone have me loving the Wildcats on their home floor.

The Johnnies are improved under Lavin, but they are being over-hyped. This team still hasn't beaten at top notch opponent on the road. The Red Storm have been handed a 15-point loss and a pair of 25-point defeats in their last 3 road trips against top notch Big East competition (Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown). Nova fits into the category of elite Big East schools. Now healthy, expect Nova to start living up to expectations today.

Going to the numbers, we find that plays on home teams listed as a favorite or pick off an upset loss to a conference rival and up against an opponent coming off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, are 40-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this system are winning by an average of 10.2 points.

Nova has won 6 straight in this series and the last 4 wins have all come by at least 10 points. Look for the Wildcats to show St. John's it hasn't arrived just yet in this one.

3* Oklahoma State -8.5
Off 4 consecutive SU losses and 5 straight ATS defeats for Oklahoma State, odds makers are begging for the public to lay down on Texas Tech with this line. We won't bite.

The Cowboys are 12-2 at home this season and they will be extremely motivated today after getting embarrassed by 27 points at Kansas in their last game. Furthermore, Okie State will be out to avenge a 1-point loss at Texas Tech last month.

The Cowboys are a dominant 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Under coach Ford, they are 18-5 ATS as a home favorite or pick, winning these contests by an average score of 81.3 to 69.7. This trend tightens up to a near-perfect 8-1 ATS if they are at home and favored by 6.5 to 12 points. The Cowboys are winning these contests by an average score of 83.4 to 67.2. Lay the number.

3* Iowa State pk
This is a game Iowa State knows it can win to snap its 10-game skid. The Cyclones played the Huskers to a 1-point game in Lincoln last month, and I like them to get the "W" this time around.

While Nebraska is about as tough as anyone on its home floor, the Huskers have been about as poor as anyone on the road. Nebraska is 1-5 in true road games this season with their lone road win coming by 1 point.

Iowa State is a respectable 11-6 in Ames this season, where it has defeated Baylor and played Kansas, Kansas State and Mizzou down to the wire. ISU is a dominant 19-3 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick. It is winning these contests by an average score of 72.6 to 64.9. Take the Clones.

4* WCC Game of the Week (ESPN2) on Gonzaga +3.5
Gonzaga has now lost 2 straight to St. Mary's, including a 2-point heartbreaker at home last month. Motivated by these losses, and with an opportunity to pull even with the Gaels in the WCC, expect the hungry Zags to take care of business tonight.

St. Mary's comes into this one with its confidence at its lowest point of the season. The Gaels have been upset in back-to-back contests - its latest defeat being a double-digit home loss to Utah State. That setback is very important to note, considering St. Mary's is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 home games following a home loss by 10 points or more.

It is also worth noting that the Gaels are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.

Gonzaga has won 2 straight and 9 of its last 13 at St. Mary's. Take the Bulldogs in this revenge spot.

3* SEC SMASH (ESPN) on Georgia +6
Georgia wants the Gators badly tonight after falling to them in double-OT in the season's first meeting.

I certainly like the Dawgs here, considering how solid they have been on the road. Georgia is a perfect 6-0 ATS (as a road underdog or pick this season, winning these games by an average score of 71.2 to 68.2. We also can't ignore the fact that Georgia is 15-5 ATS when out to avenge a home upset loss to an opponent. The Bulldogs are winning these games by an average score of 73.3 to 71.2.

In addition, Florida has not shown that it can be trusted when laying points. In fact, the Gators are just 3-13 ATS as a favorite this season. The Gators' last 3 home wins have all come by 4 points or less. We'll take the Dawgs showing solid value at +6 tonight.

3* NCAAB Blowout on Duquesne -12
The Dukes return home after back-to-back games on the road, and I expect them to run Rhode Island off the court tonight. Duquesne has been nothing short of dominant on its home floor, where it has won 7 of its last 8. It is worth noting that those 7 victories came by an average of 20.3 points. During this stretch, the Dukes even handed Temple a 12-point loss.

The Dukes will have no problem getting up for this one as they look to bounce back from Saturday's upset loss at Dayton. They will also be out to avenge last year's loss at Rhode Island.

In order to beat the Dukes at home, where they are averaging 82.7 ppg, you better be able to score the basketball. That figures to be a difficult task for the Rams this evening, considering they are shooting just 41.4% from the field. This is a critical stat when you consider that Duquesne is 8-1 ATS versus poor shooting teams making <=42% of their shots this season. The Dukes are defeating these squads by an average score of 81.7 to 66.0.

It is also worth mentioning that the Dukes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. We'll lay the points.

5* MVC Game of the Year on Northern Iowa -6
This is a great spot for N. Iowa. The Panthers were defeated 70-45 at Indiana State last month, and I fully expect that embarrassing loss to be the driving force behind a comfortable win tonight. In addition, it's the last home game of the season for N. Iowa. Teams almost always take their level of play up a notch in these games to send the seniors out on a winning note. I expect a great effort tonight from this proud Panthers squad.

Right away, it bodes well for us that favorites out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off a home loss, are 145-87 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have lost 4 of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record, are 50-18 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is 5-1 ATS this season. It is also worth noting that teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 10.5 points.

We certainly can't ignore the fact that N. Iowa is a perfect 7-0 ATS when out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers have bounced back to win by an average of 11.0 points in these games. Lay the points with the Panthers tonight.

3* NCAAB Under the Radar SMASH on Chattanooga +4.5
Chattanooga finally returns home after 4 straight on the road, and the Mocs will be extremely hungry tonight having lost all 4 of those contests. They'll be further motivated by the 85-59 defeat they suffered at Furman last month.

The Mocs haven't played since last Wednesday while the Paladins just played Saturday. This gives Chattanooga the big edge in terms of fresh legs and preparation time.

One has to like Chattanooga's chances tonight, considering it is 6-0 ATS in home games when out to avenge a loss in which it allowed its opponent to score 75 points or more the last 2 seasons. The Mocs are winning by an average score of 81.0 to 74.0 in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Mocs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Take Chattanooga.

3* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Syracuse +4
This game is all about revenge for the Orange, which lost at home to Villanova last month. The Wildcats shot out of their minds in that game, making a season-high 11 3-pointers. Expect Syracuse to do a much better job of defending the 3-point line this time around on its way to evening the score.

Taking a look inside the numbers, we find that Syracuse is 7-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. We also find that Villanova has been a poor investment lately when laying points. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Both teams have won 4 of their last 6, but the Orange are playing better ball right now. Recently, Villanova fell to Rutgers and was fortunate to beat Seton Hall and DePaul. We'll take Syracuse and the points in this revenge spot.

3* 100% Perfect 34-0 ATS NCAAB *BEST BET* on Maryland -10.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Maryland to take care of business when it steps back on its home floor Sunday.

The Terps haven't had much trouble against NC State, winning 7 straight in the series with those wins coming by an average of 14.0 points. The Terps, in fact, are 8-0 ATS in the last 8 overall meetings in this matchup.

NC State has really struggled away from home. The Wolfpack, in fact, are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.

In addition, NC State is 0-6 ATS versus excellent teams this season - shooting 45% or better from the field and allowing their opponents 42% shooting or worse. The Pack are losing to these teams by an average of 15.2 points.

Also, Maryland is a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons, crushing these foes by an average of 15.5 points.

With a 34-0 ATS angle in support, we'll back the Terps in this highly motivated spot. Lay the points.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Stanford pk
Motivated by back-to-back losses to two of the best teams in the league (Washington, UCLA) and out to avenge an embarrassing 65-42 loss at USC last month, expect the Cardinal to take care of business at home tonight.

Right away I love the fact that favorites (Stanford opened as fave) out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off a home loss, are an impressive 142-85 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 6.7 points.

In addition, USC is just 4-8 in all games away from home this season. It has lost at both Oregon and Oregon State, so it is certainly susceptible at Stanford tonight, especially considering how much trouble it has had in Palo Alto. The Cardinal have won 8 straight at home in this series. It is also worth noting that the home team has won the last 13 meetings.

The Trojans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Expect Stanford to continue its home dominance here.

4* Big 12 *BEST BET* on Oklahoma State -2
Motivated by back-to-back defeats on the road and an embarrassing 71-48 loss at A&M last month, expect the Cowboys to take care of business when they step back on their home floor tonight. Oklahoma State is 12-1 at home this season where it is winning by an average of 9.5 points.

This is an ideal spot to fade the Aggies, considering they are 0-7 ATS the last 2 seasons off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite, losing by an average score of 73.4 to 69.9 in this situation.

Dating back to 1998, the Cowboys are 11-2 at home against the Aggies, defeating them by an average score of 72-60. It is also worth noting that Oklahoma State is 11-1 ATS as a home favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons.

Lastly, the Cowboys are 11-0 ATS all-time under coach Ford in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%), defeating these squads by an average of 13.7 points. Take the Cowboys.

4* Big Ten *BEST BET* on Indiana -2.5
Motivated by 3 straight defeats and a loss at Northwestern last month, along with 6 full days to prepare, look for Indiana to hand the Wildcats their 5th straight road loss.

Northwestern has had no chance on the road against teams unwilling to do them any favors. In fact, the Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams (such as Indiana) committing 14 turnovers or fewer per game this season. The Cats are losing to these squads by an average score of 78.1 to 65.0. Going along with this, it is worth noting that Indiana is a perfect 6-0 ATS this season after 15-plus games versus poor pressure defensive teams (like Northwestern) forcing 14 turnovers or less per game.

Lastly, the Hoosiers are an impressive 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. Indiana is an improved ball club, and I believe it will take care of business in this motivated spot.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on VCU +8
Off back-to-back defeats, the VCU Rams will be extremely motivated when they hit the floor this evening. I love the fact that plays against home teams listed as a favorite or pick that are coming off back-to-back wins against conference rivals, and are up against an opponent off 2 consecutive home losses of 10 points or more, are 35-9 ATS since 1997. This system is already a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.

The Shockers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. The Rams, meanwhile, are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.

By and large, teams that have been able to turn the Rams over have had the most success against them. Wichita State, however, is not a team that forces a lot of turnovers. It doesn't play aggressive enough defensively to come up with many steals. This is significant as VCU is a perfect 6-0 ATS under coach Smart in road games 15-plus games into the season versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game. The Rams are defeating these teams by an average score of 72.3 to 61.0. Take the points.

4* NCAAB Thursday Night Blowout on Gonzaga -14
The Bulldogs were upset at Santa Clara last month. That defeat assures us they will be out for blood when they take the floor tonight.

Winning at home against the Broncos hasn't been any trouble at all for Gonzaga. The Zags have won each of their last 3 home games in this series by 34, 42, and 37 points respectively. Going back to 1998, the Bulldogs are 12-1 against Santa Clara at home, defeating the Broncos by an average score of 84-65. It is also worth noting that the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Gonzaga.

The Broncos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 13.0 points or more and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as a road underdog of 13.0 points or more. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of at least 13 points. Lay the points as Gonzaga crushes Santa Clara in this revenge spot.

4* Pac-10 Game of the Week on Washington State +9
The Cougars saw their 3-game winning streak over Arizona come to an end last month as they endured a 2-point defeat. Motivated by that loss, expect Washington State to take the Wildcats right down to the wire tonight.

The Wildcats will be much more concerned with Saturday's showdown against a Washington team that crushed by 17 points last month than the task at hand.

Also, Arizona has constantly been overvalued at home in this matchup, which is evident by the fact that it has won 10 of the last 13 at home SU but is just 3-10 ATS in those games. It is also worth noting that the Wildcats are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

Washington State, which returns all 5 starters from the squad that swept Arizona last season, won't be lacking any confidence tonight. We'll take the points as the Cougars improve to 11-3 ATS in their last 14 at Arizona.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Oklahoma +1.5
Off 3 straight defeats, including an absolute pounding at Mizzou last game, expect the Sooners to take out their frustrations on a Nebraska team that is 0-5 in true road games this season.

With as poorly as Nebraska has performed on the road, it certainly can't be trusted laying points. The Cornhuskers are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 6.5 or less. Also, under coach Sadler, Nebraska is just 17-32 ATS in lined road games, losing these contests by an average score of 69.9 to 61.2.

This is one matchup that has been dominated by the home team. The home squad has won 6 in a row. Plus, Oklahoma has won 5 straight at home in this series with all 5 of those wins coming by double digits. Take the Sooners.

3* Big Ten SMASH on Illinois -9
Odds makers have set a line to get the betting public on Michigan. We won't bite, however. The Wolverines have really struggled away from home with losses to Wisconsin, Indiana, Northwestern and Ohio State coming by an average of 14.5 points. Michigan has certainly struggled at Assembly Hall, where it has lost 12 in a row. Illinois' last 10 home wins over the Wolverines have been by an average score of 72-57.

The Illini will be out for blood tonight as they look to avenge a home loss to Purdue. I'll gladly get behind the Fighting Illini in this spread range, considering they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. It is also worth noting that the home team is an impressive 17-3 ATS in the last 20 meetings.

Illinois has underachieved to this point and knows it. The Illini will be ready to take their frustrations out on a Michigan team they have owned at home in this highly motivated spot. Lay the points.

3* Big East Bomb on Marquette -6
After 3 straight on the road Marquette finally returns home, where it is a dominant 12-2 this season, and I fully expect it to jump all over the Johnnies tonight. St. John's just defeated Cincy on the road, but that's not enough to sell me here. After all, the Red Storm have suffered losses at Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown and UCLA by at least 7 points.

The Golden Eagles have won 8 straight in this series dating back to 2003, and those wins have come by an average score of 69 to 57. The Eagles have won their 2 home games during this span by an average of 17.0 points.

The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite while the Red Storm are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. We'll lay the points.

4* Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Week on Evansville +6
After a very satisfying revenge win over Northern Iowa, Wichita State will be much more concerned with Friday's national TV showdown against VCU than it will a team it defeated by 34 in late December. That win, however, will be the fuel that drives the Purple Aces this evening.

Evansville is 11-2 at home this season, and it has won 3 straight at home in this series. Plus, the Purple Aces are an impressive 8-1 ATS after 15-plus games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last 2 seasons. The Aces are only losing these contests by an average of 2.5 points.

We saw the way K-State responded at home last night following its embarrassing loss to Kansas. I expect a similar response from Evansville this evening. Take the points.

3* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Kansas State +6
Motivated by a loss at Colorado Saturday and further motivated by an embarrassing 90-66 loss at Kansas last month, expect the Wildcats to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 regular season meetings in this series, and K-State has certainly been getting the job done at home this season. The Wildcats are 12-1 on their home floor.

Backing the Wildcats at home following a road game has been a money-making venture. In fact, K-State is 15-6 ATS in home games after playing a road game under coach Martin. This is a good time to fade the Jayhawks. Consider that Kansas is 11-24 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Wildcats are also an impressive 9-2 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams (45% or better from the field) over the last 2 seasons. We'll take the points with the home team tonight.

3* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* (FSN) on Arizona State +5.5
As if 7 straight defeats aren't enough to motivate the Sun Devils, an 80-69 loss at Arizona last month should do the trick.

It is certainly worth noting that ASU's losing streak isn't as bad as it looks. The Sun Devils only played 2 home games during this stretch and lost them by a combined 3 points. In fact, their last 3 home defeats have all come by 4 points or less.

Arizona is making steady progress, but it isn't yet worthy of laying this much chalk on the road in a big time rivalry game. We shouldn't be surprised, however, as Zona is constantly overvalued in this matchup. As a result, the Wildcats are just 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

Since Sendek took over the reins, the Sun Devils are an impressive 16-7 ATS in home games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent. His teams are winning by an average score of 64.6 to 59.6 in this situation. We'll take the points.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Duquesne -4.5
The Dukes have not forgotten the 36-point beating they took at Xavier last season. Motivated by that loss, I expect Duquesne to have its revenge Sunday.

The Dukes will be further motivated today following an upset loss to St. Bonaventure in their last game. It is also worth noting that that contest took place on Feb. 5, giving Duquesne a full 7 days to prepare for a game it has had circled since last season.

The Dukes have quietly been one of the best investments this season. In fact, they are 13-3 ATS in all lined games. They are 11-2 ATS as a favorite this season, 7-1 ATS in home lined games and 8-1 ATS against conference opponents.

Recently, this matchup has been dominated by the home team. The home team is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings. Expect this trend to continue here. Lay the points.

5* Big 12 Game of the Year on Nebraska -4.5
Off 3 straight defeats, the Huskers will be out for blood when they step back on their home floor Saturday. Winning at home has not been much of a problem for Nebraska. Big Red is 14-1 on its home court this season with an average winning margin of 15.7 points. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has been extremely unreliable on the road. The Cowboys have lost their last 5 away from home.

Nebraska is so tough at home because it gets after it on the defensive end. In fact, Nebraska visitors are being held to just 55.2 points on 35.5% shooting this season. This is significant considering Oklahoma State is 0-6 ATS in road games versus very good defensive teams (allowing 39% or less shooting) under coach Ford. The Cowboys are losing these games by an average score of 75.2 to 61.3. It is also worth noting that OK ST is 5-14 ATS as a road underdog or pick under Ford, losing these contests by an average score of 78.6 to 67.4.

Lastly, Nebraska is an impressive 26-13 ATS in its last 39 home games after 2 or more consecutive losses, taking care of business in these spots by an average score of 70.8 to 63.8. Lay the points with Nebraska.

4* SEC Game of the Week (ESPN) on Tennessee +6
Motivated by back-to-back losses to Alabama and Kentucky, as well as a loss last month to these Gators, expect an inspired effort from the Vols to result in a cover Saturday.

Right away I love the fact that Tennessee is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last 9 road games off 2 straight losses to conference rivals. I also love how reliable the Vols have been when catching points. They are an impressive 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less.

Plus, coach Pearl - one of the game's best motivators - is a fantastic 11-2 ATS in his last 13 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. His teams are winning these games outright by an average score of 74.7 to 71.5. Tennessee needs this game badly, and I believe they get it. Take the points.

4* Early Upset on Texas Tech +5
Motivated by back-to-back losses to the two best teams in the league (Kansas, Texas) and with a week to prepare, expect the Red Raiders to pull off the upset Saturday.

Tech only lost by 2 points at home to A&M last season, and I'm confident the Raiders can get it done this time around. The Aggies have been overvalued in Big 12 play and are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big 12 as a result. Tech, meanwhile, has been undervalued. The Red Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big 12 as a result.

Tech has been rock solid at home this season, where it has won 10 of 15 games. A&M, meanwhile, hasn't showed me much on the road. The Aggies lost at Nebraska by 9 points and only defeated Colorado by 3 in their last 2 road games. Take the points here.

4* Friday NCAAB *BEST BET* on Iona -11
This is one game the Gaels want badly. Siena has won 10 straight in this series, including a 73-67 victory last month. Fueled by these defeats, expect Iona to bring this losing streak to an end in convincing fashion.

The Gaels have been tough to beat at home, where they are 9-2 with an average winning margin of 15.3 points. The Gaels are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Also, The Saints are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.

This Siena team isn't nearly as good as the one we saw last season. Iona is now the more experienced squad, and it has 10 reasons to run the Saints off the court tonight. Lay the points.

3* Pac-10 *Power Play* on Washington -13
Off 3 straight losses on the road, the Huskies will be extremely hungry when they step on their home floor tonight. That spells bad news for a Cal team that was defeated by the Huskies by 21 points last month.

Washington has been deadly on its home court, where it is 11-0 this season and outscoring its opponents by 26.8 points. It is also worth noting that the Huskies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing 3 consecutive road games. They are winning these contests by an average of 15.0 points.

In addition, explosive offensive teams averaging 84 points or more on the season have never lost to Cal since coach Mike Montgomery has been on the sidelines. These teams are a perfect 6-0 ATS, winning by an average of 15.5 points. Lay the points here.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Boise State -7.5
Off 4 straight defeats, including an absolute pounding at Utah State in its last game, Boise State will be out for blood when it steps on its home court tonight. Besides, taking care of business against Fresno State hasn't been much of a problem. The Broncos have won 6 straight at home in this series with each of the last 3 wins coming by at least 12 points. Overall, the Bulldogs are just 2-13-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an embarrassing loss of more than 20 points. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after being held to 50 points or less.

The Bulldogs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the number with Boise State.

3* Big East SMASH on Rutgers +6
The Scarlet Knights have lost 4 in a row, but those losses don't tell the story. Rutgers is playing good basketball and has covered the spread in 5 of its last 6 games as a result. The Knights even played Pitt to a 3-point game in their last home contest.

Rutgers will be very hungry tonight in its return home as it looks to avenge last month's 81-65 loss at Nova. The Wildcats, meanwhile, will be much more concerned with Saturday's showdown with Pitt than the task at hand.

The Wildcats have been fool's gold when laying points on the road, as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. The Scarlet Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

Rutgers has been very confident at home, where it is 9-3 this season. Expect the Knights to give Nova all it wants and more this evening. Take the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Clemson -8.5
Clemson has been nothing short of dominant on its home floor, where it is 12-1 this season. The Tigers check into tonight's contest on a perfect 4-0 ATS run on their home court.

In addition, Clemson is a terrific 10-2 ATS in home games against conference opponents the last 2 seasons, defeating these squads by an average score of 72.2 to 60.3. The Tigers are also an awesome 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, winning these contests by an average score of 76.1 to 62.7.

Plus, Boston College has had no luck at Clemson. Going back to 2003, the Eagles have dropped 4 in a row at Clemson by an average of 17.0 points. Lay the number with the Tigers tonight.