Sports Picks & Predictions

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Creighton -

I'll gladly back the Bluejays laying single digits on the road against the Sun Devils. Creighton comes in having yet to lose in 2016 at 11-0 and should have no problem leaving this one without a loss. The Bluejays were fortunate to leave their last game with a win, squeaking by Oral Roberts at home 66-65 as a massive 25-point favorite. I believe that will serve as a wake up call for Creighton and have them sharp and ready to go here against ASU.

The Sun Devils come in off a 11-point loss at home to New Mexico State and have really struggled just to make games competitive against top level teams. Arizona State has a 19 point loss to UNI, 46-point loss to Kentucky and 33-point loss to Purdue. A big reason for their struggles is they don't play any defense. Sun Devils are allowing opposing teams to shoot 46.3% from the field on the season and have allowed 5 teams to shoot 50% or better already. Creighton is one of the most efficient offense in the country. The Bluejays come in shooting 53.8% from the field and their worst shooting effort in any game this season is 48.3%. Take Creighton!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Air Force +

I really like the value we are getting here with the Falcons catching a big number at home against the Buffaloes. Air Force is way undervalued right now, as they come in having lost 5 of their 6 and fresh off a ugly 12-point home loss to Denver as a 5.5-point favorite. We are going to get an all out effort here from the Falcons against a Power 5 opponent and I think they are capable of pulling off the upset.

Colorado comes in off a less than impressive effort, as they only won 81-71 at home against Fort Hayes State. A team they were expected to destroy to the point that the books didn't even put up a line on it. The Buffaloes have struggled to cover off a win, as they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after securing a victory last time out. They are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 against the MWC. Falcons on the other hand are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home dog of 7 to 12.5 points. Take Air Force!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Michigan State -

The Spartans come in off a 71-63 win over Tennessee Tech, but failed to cover as a 19-point favorite. It was a sloppy performance and Michigan State really beat themselves by going just 17-30 from the free throw line. Izzo was far from pleased with the performance and with 7-days off from that game to this one, I expect a big time effort here from the Spartans at home against a bad Northwestern team that is taking a major step up in this one. It's also worth pointing out Michigan State will get back Matt McQuaid after he missed the previous game. He's a key contributor and one of their best 3-point shooters.

The Spartans are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 after playing their previous game as a home favorite and an identical 15-3 ATS in their last 18 after a home win. This is a statement game for Michigan State and I believe this line should be closer to 20 than 10. Izzo is going to have the troops ready and it's important to keep in mind they can't flirt with losing any of these games against inferior competition after their poor start against a brutal schedule. Take Michigan State!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Smash on UCLA -

I'm got no problem laying this big number on the Bruins against what I feel is a very average at best Ohio State squad. UCLA is the real deal this season and are off to an 11-0 start. They proved just how good they are with a 97-92 win in a true road game at Kentucky, which they followed up with a 102-84 win over Michigan, who I think is on the same level as the Buckeyes in the Big Ten ranks.

The only reason this line isn't more, is because Ohio State played out of their minds and nearly upset Virginia on the road in a 61-63 loss as a 12-point dog. This is a different story, as the Bruins are a much more lethal offensive team and I just don't see the Buckeyes having the offensive fire-power to keep pace. Take UCLA!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Nevada -

The Wolf Pack have been impressive early, going 8-2 over their first 10, with a perfect 4-0 record at home. Nevada hasn't just been beating teams at home, they have been dominating them, outscoring teams 82.5 to 66.2. As for UC-Irvini, they have spent most of the early portion of their scheduling traveling and it's starting to take it's toll. That's evident by their 53-84 blowout loss at St. Mary's last time out. That came just 3 days ago, so the Anteaters are coming into this one with some tired legs.

The Wolf Pack are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games after covering the spread in their last game, while UC-Irvine is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 against teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Nevada!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Temple +

I really like the value here with the Owls catching a huge number against the Wildcats in this Big 5 matchup. Villanova is simply way overvalued right now. The Wildcats are not only the defending champs, but are ranked No. 1 thanks to a perfect 10-0 start to the 2016-17 season. Villanova is coming off a fortunate cover against Notre Dame, winning 74-66 as a 5-point favorite, as they trailed by double-digits in that contest.

Temple likely doesn't have what it will take to give the Wildcats their first loss of the season, but they are certainly talented enough to keep this within 16-points and wouldn't be surprised if they kept it within single-digits. The Owls have won 6 of their last 7 and that stretch includes a 81-77 win over West Virginia as a 12.5-point dog. Temple has the inside/outside balance offensively to give Villanova trouble here and have thrived in the role of the dog. The Owls are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 as a dog and are 5-0 ATS when playing away from home this season. Take Temple!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on St. Joe's - 

I'm going to lay the points with the Hawks, as I think we are getting some great value here due the fact that they come in having lost 4 straight. The thing is, they played a brutal stretch during the losing streak. They were competitive in losses to Ole Miss, NC State and Temple, before getting beat bad on the road by an elite Villanova team. With a major step down in competition here with Drexel, St. Joe's is poised to put this one away early. 

The Dragons are 4-4, but there's not a lot to be impressed with. Their 4 wins are against Hartford, North Texas, Lafayette and High Point. The losses are against Monmouth, Rutgers, LaSalle and Niagara, who I think are all worse than this St. Joe's squad. The big key is they weren't competitive in most of those defeats, as all 4 came by at least 9 with two coming right around the 20-point mark. 

Hawks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games after failing to cover in 4 straight games, while Drexel is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games and 3-12 in their last 15 home games after playing in back-to-back games where they were called for 22 or more fouls. Take St. Joe's!

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of Month on Xavier -

I have zero problem laying double-digits on the Musketeers at home against the Utes. Xavier is going to be all business when they take the floor here, as they come in looking to snap a 2-game losing streak, which saw them lose at Baylor 61-76 and at Colorado 66-68. Baylor is an elite team and Colorado is one of the toughest places to play. Look for the Musketeers at home to return to the form that saw them open up the season 7-0.

Utah on the other hand is a team that I think is still getting some love for what they did a year ago, when they finished up 27-9 and 2nd in the Pac-12. The Utes only returned 2 starters from that team and loss their most important player in big man Jakob Poeltl. So far Utah has played a cupcake schedule, which has allowed them to jump out to a 6-1 record. The only decent team they played was Butler and they lost to them on their home floor by 9-points. It's also worth pointing out that Utah has yet to play a game on the road or on a neutral court and it's not easy playing that first true road game, especially for an inexperienced team going up against an elite team like Xavier who is playing with a chip on their shoulder. Take Xavier!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Wisconsin -

I'm going to back the Badgers as a small road favorite against in-state rival Marquette. Wisconsin's only two losses have come against a couple of elite teams in Creighton and North Carolina. While the Golden Eagles are a solid team, they are not on the same level of those two teams. Marquette's two toughest games this season were against Michigan and Pittsburgh and they lost both of those, losing by 18 to the Wolverines, who are not in the same class as the Badgers in the Big Ten.

This is also a big revenge spot for Wisconsin, as they haven't forgot about a 55-57 loss at home to Marquette last year. A game where they beat themselves by shooting a mere 36.4% from the field and only got to the free throw line 4 times. I look for Marquette to be the team struggling to find their shot in this one, as Wisconsin can really get after you defensively, as they come in allowing just 59.1 ppg and are holding opponents to 40.1% from the field.

While the Golden Eagles are 5-0 at home this season, they are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games against a team with a winning record and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams who are efficient offensively, making 45% or more of their attempts from the field (Badgers are shooting 47.8% on the season). Take Wisconsin!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Creighton -

I'll gladly lay this small number on the Bluejays against the Cornhuskers. While Creighton comes into this game ranked #10 in the country, I don't think people realize how well this team is playing. The Bluejays are 8-0 and have more than proven themselves against some quality opponents. They beat a very good Wisconsin team by 13 at home and followed it up with 3 straight non-conference wins over Washington State, NC State and Ole Miss all by at least 9 points.

Nebraska is a decent team and are well coached under Tim Miles, but they are a young team that isn't on the same level as Creighton. The Cornhuskers lost their two best players from last year in Shavon Shields and Andrew White III, who combined averaged 33.4 ppg. They do have a solid player in Tai Webster, but you need a compliment of players who can score to take down this Bluejays squad, which has 6 players averaging 8 or more points per game, including 19.4 ppg from top scorer Marcus Foster.

The most amazing stat with Creighton is their shooting to start the season. The Bluejays have shot at least 50% from the field in all 8 of their games this season. Nebraska, which relies on their defense, simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep this game close. Take Creighton!

4* NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Illinois State -

I have no problem laying this small number on the Redbirds against the Golden Hurricane. Illinois State has jumped out to a 4-2 record and their two losses have come on the road against TCU (71-80) and Murray State (70-73). Both of which they could have easily won, as they had the lead at the half in both games. I look for the Redbirds to come out all business here looking to get that first road win. Keep in mind Illinois State is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley and has the potential to overtake Wichita State for the top spot in the conference.

As for Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane come in 3-3 and have not been all that impressive so far. Their 3 wins are against New Orleans, Oregon State and Oral Roberts. They just lost 62-72 at Arkansas-Little Rock last time out and earlier this season lost at home to Jacksonville State 73-84. The loss that really stands out to me is a 53-80 defeat at Wichita State, who I mentioned is not that much better than this Illinois State team. Let's also not forget this Golden Hurricane squad lost a ton from last year's 20-win season and are expected to finish in the bottom 4 of the American Athletic. Take Illinois State!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Evansville -

The Purple Aces are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Falcons. Evansville comes into this one with some confidence, as they just knocked off Boise State 72-67 at home on Saturday. As for Bowling Green, they find themselves in a tough spot here, as they just played on Sunday at Cincinnati in an ugly 56-85 loss to the Bearcats. The Falcons are now 0-3 in true road games this season, as they lost at Oakland and South Dakota earlier this season.

Evansville is a perfect 4-0 at home with a couple of solid wins over Boise State and Morehead State, as well as two blowout wins over inferior opponents in Alcorn State (82-59) and Wabash (83-39). It's also worth pointing out that the Purple Aces have played the much tougher schedule to this point, which only adds more value here with this small line.

I look for Evansville's defense to be the difference in this one. The Purple Aces are only giving up 64.1 ppg (55.2 ppg at home) and are holding opponents to just 40.2% shooting (34.7% at home). Bowling Green is only shooting 40.0% from the field on the season and come in off a horrible shooting performance at Cincinnati, as they hit just 36.8% from the field. Take Evansville!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Ball State -

These two teams come in with identical records at 4-4, but it's pretty clear who the better team is in this one. Ball State comes in off a bad loss at home to IUPUI, but the other 3 defeats have all come against quality opponents in Indiana State, Alabama and Valparaiso. This is a huge bounce back spot for the Cardinals and there's added incentive here with revenge from last year's 53-54 heartbreaking loss at Bradley.

The Braves finished just 5-27 last year, as they sent out one of the youngest rosters in college basketball history with 10 freshman, 1 sophomore and 1 senior. They are still a very young team and should continue to struggle on the road. Last time out they lost 69-91 at home to Nevada as a mere 6-point dog. In that game Bradley allowed the Wolf Pack to shoot 55.6% from the field. That's a bad sign for the Braves against a very efficient Ball State offense, that is shooting 47.1% from the field and 38.1% from behind the 3-point line on the season.

Bradley is just 16-38 ATS in their last 54 as a road dog of 7 to 12.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after a SU loss by more than 20 points. Take Ball State!

4* UConn/Syracuse ATS No Brainer on UConn +

It's been a disappointing start to say the least for the Huskies, who are just 3-4 and have yet to cover a spread (0-5). They have started to play better basketball of late, but are clearly way undervalued right now. They recently only lost by 10-points on a neutral court against an Oregon team that a lot of people think is capable of winning it all, so that a good sign that things are getting better.

Syracuse is 5-2, but they haven't been all that great either. Their 5 wins are against Colgate, Holy Cross, Monmouth, South Carolina State and North Florida. When actually tested against a quality opponent, they have struggled, losing 50-64 as a 8.5-point favorite against South Carolina and 60-77 at Wisconsin as a mere 6-point dog. It's not like the Huskies don't have talent and this is certainly a game they can win outright.

Huskies are 31-13 ATS in their last 44 off a close win by 3-points or less and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 neutral court games with a total of 129.5 or less. Take Connecticut!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Indiana State +

Really like the value we are getting with the Sycamores in this one. Indiana State comes into this game with a 3-4 record, but have played a brutal schedule early and have more than proven themselves against some really good teams. That includes a 71-73 loss to Iowa State, a game they arguably should have won. They also have a 3-point loss to Stanford, 3-point loss to Quinnipiac and 2-point defeat at Northern Illinois. That's 4 losses by a combined 10 points.

Not only is this a game they can keep close enough to cover, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. Utah State is 4-3, but the 4 wins have come against UC-Irvine, New Jersey Tech, Bristol and Idaho State. Not exactly anything to get excited about. Their true colors started to shine when they took a step up in competition, as they lost by 21 to Purdue, 24 to Texas Tech and 14 to BYU. Keep in mind this is an Aggies team that returned just one starter from last year's squad, which finished T-8th in the MWC with a conference record of just 7-11. Take Indiana State!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Iowa -

This is a great spot to jump on the Hawkeyes at home. Iowa should be a much bigger favorite here, but aren't getting a ton of love after dropping 3 straight and sitting at 3-4 on the season. The thing is, Iowa has played a brutal schedule to start as their 4 losses have come against Seton Hall, Virginia, Memphis and Notre Dame. All teams I think will be in the field for the NCAA Tournament.

This is a statement game for the Hawkeyes, who simply can't afford another loss and they should be able to have their way against an inferior Nebraska-Omaha squad that comes in with an identical 3-4 record, despite playing a much easier schedule. This is a team that lost by 13 at home against Rice as a 4.5-point favorite and gave up a 100 points in the process. They also recently allowed 94 points at Eastern Michigan in a 17-point defeat. The Hawkeyes have the offensive fire-power to exploit them and will bring the energy on defense to turn this into a blowout. Take Iowa!

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Iowa State -

I got no problem laying this number with the Cyclones at home on Thursday against the Bearcats. This Iowa State team was just tested in their 3-games in Florida against Indiana State, Miami and Gonzaga. They escaped with a 73-71 win over an underrated Sycamores squad, crushed the Hurricanes 73-56 and came up just short against a top level Gonzaga team in a 71-73 defeat. Now they return home to Hilton Coliseum, where they are nearly unbeatable, as they have gone 60-5 at home over the last 4 seasons.

The Bearcats come in at 5-1, but have played a soft schedule early. Their 5 wins are against Brown, Albany, Penn State, Samford, and Lipscomb. The lone lost was a neutral site game against Rhode Island by 5. While Rhode Island is a decent team, they aren't on the same level as the Cyclones. It's also worth pointing out that Cincinnati could be without their best player in Gary Clark, who is the heart and soul of this team. He's questionable with an ankle injury. Even if he plays, I don't think the Bearcats defense will be good enough on the road against an explosive ISU offense that is putting up 88.8 ppg.

Cincinnati is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch, while the Cyclones are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after a close loss by 3-points or less. Take Iowa State!

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS No Brainer on St. Mary's -

I'm a big fan of this St. Mary's team, who comes into this game 5-0 and ranked No. 12 in the country. The Gaels come in off a 76-63 win over UAB on a neutral court and won 61-57 at Dayton earlier this season, which is a really impressive win. The Flyers are the favorites to win the A-10 and are a much more talented team than the Cardinal.

Stanford is 7-1 and fresh off back-to-back wins over Indiana State and Seton Hall in Orlando, but they also lost 53-67 against a pretty mediocre Miami team. This St. Mary's team is without a doubt the best team the Cardinal have played so far this season and I think they struggle to make this game competitive. Stanford isn't a great offensive team, as they come in shooting just 43.5% from the field on the season and are only averaging 4 made 3-pointers per game. The Cardinal are solid defensively, giving up 63.8 ypg, but so are the Gaels, who are only giving up 61.0 ppg. The big difference is St. Mary's is much more potent offensively, averaging 81.8 ppg, shooting 52.8% from the field and averaging 10 made 3-pointers a game.

The Gaels are 33-18 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a favorite, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after back-to-back wins by 10 or more points. Take St. Mary's!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Washington +

Really like the value and spot here with Washington as a near double-digit road dog against TCU. These two teams just played each other this past Saturday in Las Vegas and the Horned Frogs won that contest 93-80. That result is clearly playing into this line, as TCU was a mere 1.5-point favorite on the neutral setting. Now they are laying 7-points more at home and I don't think it's justified. In fact, I think the Huskies have a great shot at winning this game outright.

While the Horned Frogs won by 13, it was a much closer game than the final score would indicate. Washington was only down 2-points with less than 13 minutes to play. Things took a turn for the worse down the stretch run, as Huskies leading scorer Markelle Fultz (23.0 ppg) fouled out with 7 minutes left to play. At the time of fouling out, Fultz had already scored 27 points, going 8 of 13 from the field and 10 of 12 from the free throw line. It's also worth pointing out that the Horned Frogs got off to a great start in that game, jumping out to a 19-4 lead, which is not something they are likely to replicate, even with this meeting at home.

Washington is 25-15 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent by 10 or more under current head coach Lorenzo Romar. We also find a great system in play favoring a fade of the Horned Frogs. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off 6 or more consecutive wins and are playing their 3rd game in a week are just 9-31 (22%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Washington!

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Davidson -

I really like the value here with the Wildcats laying a small number on the road against the Bears. Davidson is 4-1 and have really responded well to their ugly early season loss to Clemson. The Wildcats followed up that loss with a 70-55 win over Missouri, 68-60 win against Arizona State and 79-57 blowout win at home against Charlotte. Mercer is 4-2 and have lost both games against respectable opponents, losing 54-76 to Florida and 63-65 to Akron.

The Bears are simply outclassed in this one. Davidson is just starting to play up to their potential. Keep in mind this is a team that returned 4 starters from a team that went 20-13 last year and closed out the season 8-3 over their last 11 games. Doing so despite some key injuries and struggles defensively (78.1 ppg, 304th). The Wildcats will have the two best players on the floor in senior guard Jack Gibbs (21.0 ppg) and junior forward Peyton Aldridge (19.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg).

Davidson's defense has been much better so far this season, allowing just 68.2 ppg and holding opponents to just 36.9% shooting. On top of that, Mercer isn't a great offensive team, averaging just 68.7 ppg. It's also worth pointing out that the Bears live and die by the 3-point shot, averaging 22 attempts a game. That plays into the strength of the Wildcats defense, which is only giving up 30.8% shooting from long-distance and are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 against teams who average 21 or more 3-point shots a game. Take Davidson!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Northwestern -

I really like the value here with the Wildcats as a small home favorite against the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest has the better overall record at 5-1, but their 5 wins have all come against sub-par competition. Their only game against a respectable opponent was Villanova and they lost 77-96.

Northwestern has the worse record at 4-2, but have been the more impressive team early on. The Wildcats lost by just 2-points on the road (68-70) to a very good Butler team and had another heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame (66-70) on a neutral site. Sandwiched between those two defeats was a dominant 77-58 win over Texas as a 4.5-point favorite.

Wake Forest is a program headed in the right direction under head coach Danny Manning, but they still got a ways to go. Keep in mind they were just 11-20 last year and lost their best player in Devin Thomas. The Deacons were just 3-9 in road games last year and I expect those road woes to continue this season. Take Northwestern!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Valparaiso -

I like the value here with Valparaiso laying less than 10 at home against the Cardinals. The Crusaders come in at 5-1 with their only loss being a true road game at Oregon, who is one of the elite teams in the country. They bounced back from that defeat with a 68-60 win over Alabama as a 3.5-point dog and 92-89 upset of BYU as a 6.5-point dog.

Ball State is simply not on the same level as Valparaiso and that's evident by their performance against a couple of common opponents. While the Crusaders beat the Crimson Tide by 8, the Cardinals lost by 18 at Alabama. Valpo also has a 78-58 blowout win over Coppin State, while Ball State barely won 78-77 over Coppin State.

Crusaders are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after winning 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after playing their previous game as an underdog. Take Valparaiso!

4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS Smash on New Mexico +

I really like the value we are getting here with the Lobos as a 4.5-point dog against the Flyers. New Mexico is loaded this year with 4 starters back including one of the best the MWC has to offer in Elijah Brown. They are a legit threat to win the MWC and I like their chances of winning outright here against Dayton.

The Flyers are getting a lot of love coming into the season, but are just 3-2 and recently lost to a very mediocre Nebraska team. New Mexico is the much better offensive team, as they come in 39th in scoring at 85.0 ppg. Dayton on the other hand is T-105th at 78.4 ppg The Lobos are also the better rebounding team and do a better job of sharing the basketball.

Dayton is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 after a SU win and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take New Mexico!

4* NCAAB Afternoon ATS No Brainer on Iowa -

The Hawkeyes were outclassed in yesterday's 41-74 loss to Virginia and as a result are undervalued here against Memphis, who lost to Providence by 9 and the Friars are way down from last year's squad that featured the likes of Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil. Memphis might have the better record at 4-1, but that's only because they played 4 cupcake games to start the season. Iowa is 3-2, but both losses are against teams I believe will be tournament bound in Seton Hall and Virginia.

Note that these two teams have already played two common opponents in the early going and it's pretty clear the Hawkeyes are the better team. Iowa beat Savannah State 116-84, while Memphis only beat them by a final of 99-86. Iowa defeated UTRGV 95-67, while Memphis won by a final of 94-75. This is a huge game for the Hawkeyes and a big bounce back spot after the embarrassing loss to Virginia. Take Iowa!

4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS Blowout on Northern Illinois -

We are getting some great value here on the Huskies at home against Elon. Northern Illinois fallowed up a loss at CS-Northridge with a shocking 64-68 defeat at home to Cal-Poly-SLO on Wednesday as a 10-point favorite. I expect an all out effort here from the Huskies and it's not like this team doesn't have some talent. Keep in mind they beat a talented Indiana State team at home earlier this season, who just nearly upset Iowa State in their last game.

This is a Northern Illinois team that returned 3 players who averaged double-figures in scoring, plus got back their leading scorer from 2013-14 in Dontel Highsmith, who missed the lat two years. Elon comes in at 3-1, but have played a favorable schedule to start, as they have been favored in all 3 games with a line posted. The Fighting Phoenix aren't expected to be a factor in the CAA, as most have them picked to finish in the bottom half of the league.

Even with the loss last time out, the Huskies are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games. They are also a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games after playing their previous game at home. Take Northern Illinois!

5* Wisconsin/N Carolina NCAAB No Limit Top Play on North Carolina -

I think this is a great spot to go against the Badgers, who come in off an impressive 73-57 win over Georgetown as a mere 5-point favorite. Not to take anything away from that win, but the Hoyas have been extremely inconsistent to start the year and certainly didn't look all that interested in playing that game. Wisconsin had a 50 to 21 edge in rebounds with a 20-1 edge on the offensive boards. That right there shows the lack of effort by Georgetown.

Either way, the Badgers aren't going to have that same luxury of dominating the board against the Tar Heels. North Carolina comes in averaging 48.3 rebounds/game and are averaging a +18 rebound margin on the season. With the extra possessions, that's really going to make it tough for the Badgers to keep pace offensively with this explosive Tar Heels offense that comes in averaging 96.5 ppg. It's not just the offensive side of the ball where UNC is playing well, they are only giving up 67.2 ppg, which is about 10 ppg fewer than what their opposition is averaging.

I see this as a similar matchup to Wisconsin's earlier 67-79 loss at Creighton, expect the Tar Heels are a much better team than Creighton. UNC clearly means business in this tournament, as they absolutely dominated Oklahoma State 107-75 last night as a mere 9-point favorite. Take North Carolina!

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Akron -

This is a great spot to back the Zips at home, as they come in off a 88-41 blowout win over Radford, where they shot 56.6% from the field and connected on 13 3-pointers. When Akron gets going from the outside, they are difficult team to contain. The Zips were 2nd in the country a year ago with an average of 11.7 3-pointers made per game. Adding to this, is the fact that Akron is a dominant 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots, winning in this spot by an average of 10.0 ppg.

This isn't just a team that can beat you from the outside, Akron also returns 1st All-MAC center Isaiah Johnson, who averaged 13.6 ppg and 7.6 rpg, despite only starting 9 games. This Zips team is without question the class of the MAC conference and would have been in the NCAA Tournament a year ago had they not lost the title game of the MAC Tournament.

Georgia Southern is a solid team, but are just 1-2 to start the year, including an ugly 13-point loss last time out at Mercer. They have really struggled offensively in their two true road games, as they are shooting just 36.9% from the field away from home. The defense has also been an issue on the highway, as they are giving up 80.5 ppg on the road. I just don't see the Eagles being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Take Akron!

4* NCAAB Afternoon ATS No Brainer on Ball St - 

I have no problem laying a big number on the Cardinals against a horrible Coppin State team that has yet to register a win, as they are 0-5. Not a great spot for Coppin State, who has played all 5 of their games to this point on the road. They haven't exactly been competitive either, losing by 20 to Valpo, 30 to Coastal Carolina, 37 to BYU and 43 to Utah State. 

Ball State opened with a nice 21-point win at St. Louis as a mere 3.5-point favorite, but have dropped their last 2. That's a good thing here, as we should get a max effort from the Cardinals in this one, which should be all it takes to win here by 20+ points. Take Ball State!

5* NCAAB No Limit Vegas Top Play on Purdue - 

I really like the Boilermaker team and feel like this is a great spot to back them, as we can bank on a big effort here after losing at home last time out in a heartbreaker to Villanova. That should be all that's need to take down Georgia State by 20+ points at home. The Panthers are a scrappy team, but lost some key pieces from last year and are simply outclassed here against the Boilermakers.

They lost last time out at Auburn by 18 and that's a young Tigers team. Purdue is light years ahead of Auburn and I believe their size inside is going to make life miserable for Georgia State. The Panthers aren't a great 3-point shooting team and that's one area where you have to be strong, if you want to attack Purdue's defense. 

Georgia State is just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games in the month of November under head coach Ron Hunter, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games when listed as an underdog and 9-21 ATS in their last 30 non-conference games. Purdue is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 after playing their previous game at home. Take Purdue! 

5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Marquette -

I love the value here with the Golden Eagles as a small favorite against the Wolverines. I really like this Marquette team, who showed big time improvement from year one to year two under head coach Steve Wojciechowski. In his first year on the job the Golden Eagles went just 13-19. Last year they improved to 20-13, but just missed out on the NCAA Tournament. Something that certainly didn't sit well after they jumped out to a 12-4 record in their first 16 games, as they went just 8-9 to close out the year.

While the Eagles lost a big piece in Henry Ellenson, they returned 4 starters from last year and added in talented freshman sharp shooter Sam Hauser and a big scoring threat on the wing in USC transfer Katin Reinhardt. They have certainly looked like a legit contender to start out, crushing Vanderbilt 95-71 as a mere 2-point favorite and rolling over Howard 81-49 as a 26 point favorite.

Michigan returns Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin, but I have questions about the rest of the roster. They haven't got off to the best start, beating the same Howard team the Eagles crushed by a final of just 76-58. They also only beat IUPUI 77-65 in a game where they favored by 17.5-points. Poor shooting has been a big problem, as they shot just 42.3% against Howard and 45% against IUPUI. I also have concerns about their defense. They let Howard shoot 46.5% from the field. In comparison, the Golden Eagles held Howard to just 30.4%. Take Marquette!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Blowout on Georgetown -

This might seem like a lot of points for the Hoyas to be laying, but I look for them to have no problem disposing of the Terrapins at home. This is no where close to the Maryland team from last year that went 27-9. The Terps lost 4 starters, who all averaged double-figures. The reason they are getting some love, is they brought back talented point guard Melo Trimble. While he's a good player, he's not going to be as effective without all that talent around him. That was evident in their opener at home against American, which they squeaked out 62-56. Melo put up 22-points, but got little help and Maryland as a team shot just 38.5% from the field.

As for the Hoyas, they did lose their best player from last year in Smith-Rivera, but that's the only significant loss Georgetown suffered. They have 4 starters back and have added in some nice pieces, including talented a couple of quality transfers. One of those was Robert Morris' Rodney Pryor, who I think will take over the role of Smith-Rivera. He certainly looked the part in their 105-60 blowout win to open the season, scoring 32 points on 13 of 16 shooting (6 of 8 3pt).

I think Maryland is really going to struggle here on the road against a physical Hoyas team that can make life miserable for opposing teams. They are going to focus their attention on Trimble and force the others to beat them and I don't believe they can. Take Georgetown!

4* NCAAB Villanova/Purdue ATS No Brainer on Purdue +

I think we are getting some exceptional value with the Boilermakers as a home dog against the Wildcats. Villanova is simply getting too much respect early after winning it all last year. I'm not saying they aren't going to be a great team this year, but they did lose two key pieces in Ryan Arcidiacono and big man Daniel Ochefu.

The key here is this Purdue team is every bit as talented as the Wildcats, but aren't getting the same kind of love coming into the season after getting knocked out in the first round of last year's NCAA Tournament by Arkansas-Little Rock. The Boilermakers are loaded with talent and it's centered around one of the best frontcourts in the country. They have 7-2 junior center Isaac Haas and a Big 10 Player of the Year candidate at power forward in Caleb Swanigan. These two get a lot of love, but they also have a talented junior small forward in Vincent Edwards. These three combined for 64 points and 37 rebounds in the opener, led by Sanigan's 23 points and 20 rebounds.

I look that size to prove to be a big problem for the Wildcats, as they don't have the size to matchup defensively and it's going to limit their second chance opportunities on offense. It's also worth pointing out that the Boilermakers were 17-1 on their home floor last year. Take Purdue!

4* NCAAB Opening Night ATS Annihilator on Arizona +

I really like the value we are getting here with the Wildcats as a dog against the Spartans in Hawaii. Michigan State lost a lot from last year, including one of the best players in the country in Denzel Valentin, who led the team in scoring and assists and was second in rebounding. They also lost their next two top scorers in Bryn Forbes and Matt Costello, as well as big man Deyonta Davis.

Tom Izzo has reloaded with some talented young freshman, but his teams aren't exactly built to dominate in November. Izzo does a better job of anyone at molding his team as the season progresses to get them playing their best in March when it matters the most.

Arizona also lost a lot from last year, including 4 seniors, but none of them were NBA draft picks. Sean Miller recruits as well as anyone and I look for this Wildcats team to be much better than they were a year ago. I look for their athleticism and length to really give the Spartans trouble here, as Michigan State doesn't have a ton of size down low. Take Arizona.

5* NCAA Championship Game No Limit Top Play on Villanova + 

Both teams are coming off impressive wins in the Final 4 on Saturday. North Carolina defeated ACC rival Syracuse 83-66, while Villanova laid it on Oklahoma 95-51. I cashed in a huge ticket on the Wildcats against the Sooners (Game of Year) and I'm back on the Villanova bandwagon in the title game. 

Not to take anything away from the Tar Heels, but Syracuse was a favorable matchup for them, as unlike the other teams the Orange had beat up that point, North Carolina had a great understanding of how to attack their zone. The key to beating the Tar Heels is to force them into taking outside shots and limit easy looks in transition, two things Villanova does extremely well. I also look for the Wildcats to take away Marcus Paige to disrupt the flow of the Tar Heels offense. 

On the flip side of things, North Carolina defense isn't overwhelming and I look for them to struggle against the Wildcats, who can beat you both with the outside shot and their ability to drive  inside and get easy looks with their passing. If the outside shots continue to fall at the rate they have been so far in the tournament, Villanova has a chance to take control of this game and cruise to an easy win and cover. Take the Wildcats! 

5* Final Four Game of the Year on Villanova -

I'm not the least bit concerned about the fact that Oklahoma beat Villanova 78-55 earlier this season. While it's worth noting, these are two completely different teams right now. That game also saw Oklahoma shoot lights out, hitting 47% from the field and 54% from behind the 3-point line (14 of 26). Villanova on the other hand played one of their worst games of the season. The Wildcats shot just 31.7% from the field and were a miserable 4-32 (12.5%) from behind the 3-point line. 

Oklahoma is simply not that good of a defensive team and I'm confident we are going to see a much better showing from the Wildcats offense in this one. Let's not forget they just knocked off the best team in the Big 12 in Kansas, so taking down Oklahoma shouldn't be a problem. 

The big key here for me is the Villanova defense and how I believe it will give the Sooners problems. The Wildcats have been sensational on the defensive end in the NCAA Tournament holding all 4 opponents under 70 points. They made a talented Iowa offense look awful and held Kansas to just 59 points. 

One thing that gets lost in that first meeting with the Sooners, is the success that Villanova had against Buddy Hield. They held him to just 18 points on 6 of 17 shooting (zero assists). They made him work for everything he got and that's a staple for this team. Jay Wright isn't going to let your best player dominate the game. He's going to make the other guys step up. Without Hield playing at an elite level, I just don't trust the Sooners. 

If Villanova continues to shoot the ball as well as they have so far in the tournament, I think this game could actually get out of hand and the Wildcats could end up cruising to an easy win. Oklahoma is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after 15+ games against teams who average 12 or fewer turnovers per game and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record. Lay the points! 

5* NIT Championship Game ATS No Brainer on George Washington +

The Colonials are showing great value here as a dog against the Crusaders in the NIT Championship Game. George Washington played in the much stronger A-10 conference, while the Valparaiso built up their resume against bad teams in the Horizon. I was also much more impressed with the Colonials performance against San Diego St in the semifinals. George Washington made a very good Aztecs team look like they didn't belong on the same court. 

Offensively both of these teams have star players that they rely on. Alec Peters averages 18.4 ppg and 8.4 rpg for the Crusaders, while Tyler Cavanaugh averages 16.9 ppg and 7.6 rpg. The key here in my opinion is the supporting casts, which I give a strong edge to George Washington. The Colonials also get big contributions from Patricio Garino (14.1) and Kevin Larsen (12.1 ppg), while the only player for Valparaiso averaging double-figures is Keith Carter (10.4). 

Valparaiso is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win. George Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 33-18 ATS in their last 51 against strong rebounding teams, who average 40 or more per game. Take the points! 

5* NIT No Limit NCAAB *BEST BET* on Valparaiso - 

I really like the value we are getting with Valparaiso as a small favorite in tonight's NIT Semifinal matchup against BYU. The Crusaders have really been impressive in the NIT with double-digit wins over Texas Southern (84-73), Florida State (81-69) and St Mary's (60-44). This is a team that was expected to make the NCAA Tournament and are out to prove something in the NIT. 

BYU is a quality team and have also won 3 straight to reach the semifinals. However, they were fortunate to get by Virginia Tech (80-77) and had to hold on for a 88-82 win over Creighton. The Cougars were just 10-8 on the road and will be playing a long way from home in this one. 

Offensively, BYU comes in averaging an impressive 84.0 ppg. A big part of that is their 3-point shooting, as they average 9 makes a game and are shooting 38.4% from long-distance. Valparaiso is a defensive juggernaut, as they only give up 62.2 ppg. They do an excellent job of limiting opponents from the outside. They only give up an average of 6 made 3-pointers per game and are holding opponents to just 32.7% shooting from behind the 3-point line. 

On the flip side of this, the Crusaders average 75.7 ppg and will be taking on a BYU defense that gives up 75.4 ppg on the road. I'll take my chances on the team that will have the much easier time offensively and defense is one thing that always travels well. BYU is also just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games in post-season tournament play, while Valpo is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 with a line of +3 to -3. Lay the points! 

5* No Limit NCAA Tournament *BEST BET* on Notre Dame + 

These two teams met twice already. Notre Dame won at home 80-76 back on Feb. 6, but were destroyed 47-78 in the ACC Tournament. That ugly loss in the most recent matchup combined with the Tar Heels recent rout of Indiana has created some decent value here on the Irish. Keep in mind that Notre Dame went on a ridiculous 24-0 run and the Irish shot a miserable 30% from the field. 

You can overreact to one game and I don't think it's out of the question that Notre Dame pulls off the upset. Either way I like them to keep it within double-digits. Keep in mind it's a lot harder to blowout a team from the same conference in the Big Dance, as each team knows what the opponent wants to do on both sides of the ball. 

Underdogs this deep in the tournament are typically a wise investment and Notre Dame is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a neutral court underdog over the last 3 seasons. Irish are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and hold opponents to 42% or worse. Take the points! 

5* NCAA Tournament No Limit *BEST BET* on Notre Dame - 

The Fighting Irish are showing great value here at basically a pick against the Badgers. Wisconsin is getting a lot of love for their wins over Pittsburgh and Xavier, but both of those teams played right into the strength of the Badgers defense.

Wisconsin does an exceptional job of running teams off the 3-point line and forcing them to beat you inside. Teams like Pitt and Xavier that rely on the outside shot are ones they can compete with. 

On the flip side of this, teams who efficient at scoring inside have made easy work of the Badgers defense this season. If you can score on Wisconsin's defense, you can put the game away, as the Badgers are extremely limited on the offensive side of the floor.

It's going to take a light's out shooting performance from Wisconsin just to keep this game close and I'll take my chances on that not happening. Take Notre Dame! 

4* NCAA Tournament ATS No Brainer on Virginia -

Virginia is a team that simply isn't getting the respect they deserve here against the Cyclones. The Cavaliers have gone 15-3 over their last 18 games and those 3 losses came by a combined 8 points. Iowa State is a quality team, but are going to be outmatched in this one. The Cyclones have had an easy route to the Sweet 16, having played Iona and Arkansas-Little Rock. Even with those two wins, Iowa State is just 7-7 over their last 14. 

The key here is how these two teams matchup. Iowa State wants to push the pace and speed the game up. That's not something you want to do against a dominant defensive team like Virginia. The Cavaliers aren't known for having a great offense, but they were actually one of the more efficient offensive teams in the country. Iowa State doesn't play any defense and has zero to no depth, which I believe will be a huge factor with Virginia's aggressive style. Both offense should be able to score, the key is that the Cavaliers will the ones getting more stops on the defensive side of the ball. Lay the points! 

4* NCAAB Sweet 16 Vegas Insider on Maryland +

I really like the value here with the Terrapins as a decently priced dog against the Jayhawks. Kansas is the #1 seed and have rolled past their first two opponents, covering the spread in both games, including a 13-point win over a red-hot UConn team in their last game. Maryland on the other hand struggled to put away South Dakota State and needed a late run to win comfortably over Hawaii. I don't think there's any doubt this line is inflated. 

The key here is that the Terrapins possess a very difficult matchup for Kansas. Maryland has the bigs inside to match up with the Jayhawks frontline. Kansas also plays a style of defense that is going to benefit Trimble and company. When the Terrapins offense struggles, it's due to teams taking away the drive from Trimble and forcing him to shoot. Kansas wants to take away the 3-point shot and are willing to let their opponents penetrate. This is going to allow Maryland to get into a rhythm offensively and it's not out of the question that they win this game outright. Take the points! 

5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Villanova -

The Wildcats are showing great value here against the Hurricanes. Villanova is shooting the lights out of the basketball right now and may very well be the best team in the tournament that no one is talking about with a legit shot to win it all. Previous years the Wildcats have stumbled in the tournament, but they came in not shooting the ball well. 

This year's team is a whole different beast. Not only can they light it up from the outside, but they can penetrate and score inside, plus get easy baskets in transition. They are also a lot better defensively than what people give them credit for. The pressure they put on the Iowa guards put the game away early. Villanova does an exceptional job of taking away the opposing teams point guard. If the Wildcats can limit Rodriguez the Hurricanes are going to struggle to keep up offensively. Other team that's have taken away Rodriguez have had great success against the Hurricanes and those teams aren't nearly as strong defensively as Villanova. Lay the points! 

4* Creighton/BYU NIT ATS No Brainer on BYU - 

I believe we are getting some great value here with BYU due to the fact that Kyle Collinsworth is listed on the injury report as questionable with the flu. Collinsworth has had a couple days to recover and his teammates are confident that he will be out there for this game. I expect the same from the senior standout. 

While there's a good chance Collinsworth plays, we know for sure that Creighton will be without guard Isaiah Zierden. That's a big loss. Zierden averages 10.2 ppg and is the Bluejays top 3-point threat. 

The other big key here is the game being played at BYU, where the Cougars are 15-2 on the season. Creighton on the other hand is just 6-9 on the road and have dropped 4 straight away from home. Both teams average right around 80.0 ppg offensively, but BYU allowed just 69.5 ppg at home and Creighton gives up 77.7 ppg on the road. 

BYU failed to cover the spread in their last game against Virginia Tech, but are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 following a game where they failed to beat the number. The Cougars are also 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games off a win by 6 points or less. Lay the points! 

4* NIT Late-Night ATS No Brainer on San Diego St - 

The Pac-12 has been a major disappointment in the NCAA Tournament. Out of the 7 teams that got invited, only one team made the Sweet 16 (Oregon), with several losing in the 1st round. I see no reason to think that the Pac-12 is going to show any better in the NIT. 

I definitely like the value here with the Aztecs laying a relatively small number at home against the Huskies. Washington had to rally from an early deficit to escape with a 107-102 win over Long Beach State at home in their NIT opener. Now they go on the road where they have really struggled this season (6-9).

Making matters worse is they are taking on a pissed off San Diego State team that is out to show the committee they made a mistake not including them in the Big Dance. The Aztecs cruised to an easy 79-55 win at home over IUPU-Ft Wayne in their NIT opener, improving to 14-4 on their home floor this season.

It's also worth noting that San Diego State more than proved themselves against the Pac-12 in non-conference play. They only lost by 5 on the road at Utah and crushed Cal by 14 on a neutral court. 

San Diego State is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 following a SU win by more than 20 points and 24-14 ATS in their last 38 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Washington is just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 45 or more points in the 1st half of their previous game and 14-20 ATS in their last 34 as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points! 

4* NCAA Tournament ATS Annihilator on Hawaii + 

The Terrapins got pushed to the limit in their opening round game against South Dakota State, while Hawaii made easy work of a Cal team that was playing their best basketball coming into the Tournament. I know the Golden Bears were without Wallace, but I don't know that he would have made that big of a difference. 

Hawaii only lost by 3-points to Oklahoma in non-conference play, while also beating UNI by 16. One thing that I really like about the Rainbow Warriors, is they have been competitive in just about every game. Only 1 of their losses was by more than 8-points. You also have to factor in the Terrapins haven't been playing all that great down the stretch. Even with the win over the Jackrabbits, they are just 4-5 in their last 9. 

Hawaii is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers/game, including a perfect 8-0 mark this season. The Warriors are also 18-8 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 tournament games. Take the points! 

5* NCAA Tournament Vegas Insider *BEST BET* on Syracuse -

Middle Tennessee played a near perfect game against Michigan State and as a result are coming into today's Round of 32 matchup against Syracuse way overvalued. It's also a lot harder for a team like the Blue Raiders to bounce back off a monumental win like they had against the Spartans, who many had winning the tournament. 

One of the keys here is that the Orange are a difficult team to prepare in just 1 day. Syracuse's zone is not the same kind of zone that teams are use to facing. You might think that given how well Middle Tennessee shoots the 3-ball, the zone would be a good fit for them. However, opponents are shooting just 30.4% from behind the 3-point line against Syracuse this season. They also average 3 fewer attempts than what they normally put up. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Blue Raiders. Underdogs of 3.5-9.5 points who are 4 or more consecutive wins are just 20-52 (28%) ATS in the NCAA Tournament when seeded 13 through 16. Lay the points! 

4* NCAA Tournament Vegas Insider on Connecticut + 

The Huskies are showing great value here as a near double-digit dog against the Jayhawks. Connecticut didn't play well at all in the 1st half against Colorado, but returned to the form that won them the AAC Tournament in the 2nd half. The Huskies are playing with all kinds of momentum and aren't going to be the least bit intimidated by the Jayhawks. 

Kansas is simply overvalued due to the fact that they are the #1 overall seed in the tournament and fresh off a 26-points win over Austin Peay, where they put up a ridiculous 107 points. Connecticut isn't going to let the Jayhawks run all over them. They are going to limit their easy looks in transition and really slow the game down. It's not out of the question that the Huskies win this game outright. 

Connecticut is 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games when listed as a underdog on a neutral court and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games. Kansas on the other hand is just 2-9 ATS over the last 2 seasons against teams who average 12 or less turnovers after 15+ games. Take the points! 

5* No Limit NCAA Tournament *BEST BET* on Iowa State -

I really like the value here with the Cyclones as a decently priced favorite against the Trojans. Arkansas-Little Rock is fortunate just to be playing today, as they trailed by 13-points with less than 4 minutes to play against Purdue on Thursday. The Trojans rallied from that deficit to force overtime, where they won in double-overtime 85-83. 

The key thing to keep in mind here is that they are playing in the thin-air of Denver. That's going to make bouncing back on just 1-day of rest very difficult. Another advantage here for Iowa State is they got the chance to watch the Trojans after their easy 13-point win over Iona. The Cyclones play at a fast pace and that's going to make it even harder on Little Rock to keep up on the scoreboard. 

The Trojans are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 after a game where both teams scored 80+ points and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games after a combined score of 165 or more. Iowa State on the other hand is an impressive 13-4 ATS in their last 17 tournament games. Lay the points! 

4* NCAA Tournament Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M - 

There's been plenty of beef about how Texas A&M got a #3 seed and Kentucky got a #4 seed. That's not the Aggies fault and I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder against an inferior Green Bay team. 

It's important to note that I think Kentucky is one of the best teams in the country and were deserving of a better seeding. With that said, Texas A&M could have just as easily beat them in the SEC Tournament title game (lost in OT). That  loss to the Wildcats is the Aggies only defeat in their last 9 games. Keep in mind this team was ranked in the Top 5 at one point this season. 

The Phoenix winning the Horizon Tournament was a HUGE surprise. They went just 11-7 in league play and almost everyone thought that it was going to be either Valparaiso, Oakland or Wright State. Simply put, this team is going to be outclassed when they take the floor and their lack of defense is going to allow Texas A&M to turn this into a blowout. 

Keep in mind this team lost to Georgia Tech by 30 in non-conference play and allowed 107 points in the process. Lay the points! 

4* NCAA Tournament No Doubt ATS Blowout on Cal - 

A lot of the attention in the Pac-12 is going to Oregon and Utah, but I think the most dangerous team in the field from that conference is the Golden Bears. Cal has two of the best freshmen in the country that no one talks about in Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb. Once these two got a better understanding of what head coach Cuonzoc Martin wanted, this team took off down the stretch. 

The Golden Bears won 9 of their last 11 games with their two losses coming at Arizona by just 3-points (should have won that game) and to Utah by 4 in the Pac-12 Tournament. Keep in mind they did beat Utah at home by 13 and Oregon by 20. They also lost by just 1-point on the road against Virginia back in non-conference play and very easily could have won that game. 

The scary thing about Cal is not only do they have a balanced offensive attack (5 players averaging in double-figures), they are one of the best defensive teams in the country. One thing Cal does extremely well is not let teams get quality looks from behind the 3-point line. They also aren't easy to score on inside. Hawaii is a team that loves to shoot the 3-ball, which makes this a perfect matchup for the Bears. 

Cal is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and once again I feel like they are being way undervalued. They also have gone 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a winning record. Lay the points! 

5* NCAA Tournament Vegas Insider *BEST BET* on Syracuse - 

You could make a strong case that the Orange don't belong in the Tournament, but that's besides the point now. The key here is that this is a great matchup for Syracuse, plus I'm not all that convinced that the A-10 was as good as people think. 

Dayton had some quality non-conference wins, but they also lost by 29-points to Xavier and fell at home to Chattanooga. The Flyers are a team that likes to use a lot of movement on offense to create easy looks. That isn't going to be all that effective against Syracuse's zone. In fact, Dayton really struggled this season against teams who played exclusively zone defense. 

On the other side of the ball, Dayton does an outstanding job of protecting the rim and not letting team get easy looks inside. That's great if you were playing a team that likes to pound the ball inside, but the Orange are a team that loves to shoot the 3-point shot. They have four different plays who each attempted over 100 3-point shots this season and all four hit at least 34%. 

I'll put my trust in Boeheim to have Syracuse ready to play and wouldn't be shocked if the Orange won this one going away. Syracuse is 32-14 ATS in their last 46 neutral court games as an underdog and 28-11 ATS in their last 39 when listed as a dog of 6 or less on a neutral floor. Take the points! 

5* NCAA Tournament Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Providence - 

Of all the first round games of the NCAA Tournament, this is without a doubt my favorite play. Providence is built for postseason success. They have an elite guard in Kris Dunn and a matchup nightmare in 6-9 forward Ben Bentil. USC on the other hand is a team that I didn't feel deserved to make the tournament. 

Almost all of the Trojans success this season came at home, where they finished the year 16-2. USC won just 5 games on the road and none of those were against a team as talented as what they will face in the Friars. Making things even tougher on the Trojans is they got the unfortunate draw of having to play in Raleigh. Traveling clear across the country isn't going to help those road problems. 

Another thing I look at is how a team closed out the year. USC went just 3-7 over their last 10 ames. That included a 11-point loss at home to Utah, 20-point loss at Stanford, 22-point loss at Cal and 10-point loss at home to Oregon. 

I also give a big edge here to the Friars with head coach Ed Cooley and his ability to prepare for an opponent. He's going to have his team ready for what USC likes to do offensively and they aren't going to let the Trojans get out and get easy points in transition. All this adds up to what should be any easy win for Providence. Lay the points! 

3* NCAA Tournament Undervalued Underdog on Chattanooga +

There's going to be those that don't understand why Indiana is 5-seed after winning the Big 10 regular season title, but I actually think the committee seeded them accordingly. Indiana played an easy non-conference schedule and had some ugly losses. They to Wake Forest and UNLV, plus got routed by Duke by 20.

They also played the easiest Big Ten schedule, which can't be overlooked. They simply didn't have to go through the same grind of schedule as the other teams. My belief that this team is overrated came to form when the Hoosiers lost to Michigan in their first game of the Big Ten Tournament. 

Indiana's offensive is built around the 3-point shot, which is something that doesn't always travel well. Chattanooga did a decent job of defending the 3-pointer and have the players who can make life difficult for Yogi Ferrell. 

I wouldn't be shocked if the Mocs pulled off the outright upset in this one. Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in the NCAA Tournament. Chattanooga is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning percentage above 60% and 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons after 15+ games when playing against a team with a winning record. Take the points! 

3* NCAA Tournament No Doubt BLOWOUT on Miami - 

The Hurricanes are a No. 3 seed, but could have easily been a No. 2 seed. Miami tied with Virginia for 2nd in the ACC at 13-5, just 1-game back of North Carolina.  I look for the Hurricanes to have no problem here in what is a great matchup for them against Buffalo. 

The Bulls got into the tournament by winning the MAC Tournament, but this isn't one of the teams I think you ride the momentum with. Buffalo went just 10-8 in the MAC during the regular season and had lost 5 of 8 before going on that run in the MAC Tournament. During their 3-game run in the MAC Tournament, Buffalo made a ridiculous 35 of 80 (44%) from behind the 3-point line. 

The problem for the Bulls is the Hurricanes aren't going to let them get looks from the outside. They ranked 22nd in the country in 3-point shots allowed. Not only does Miami do a good job of taking away the 3-point shot, they don't foul and protect the rim. 

With Buffalo struggling to get anything going offensively, this game should get out of hand quickly. The Bulls are not a good offensive team and that's saying something given they play in a small conference. They allowed 78.3 ppg on the road. Miami should score at will here and win by 20+ no problem. 

Miami is 8-2 ATS in their 10 games this season against teams who average 77 or more points/game and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games. Lay the points! 

4* NCAA Tournament Early Bird NO BRAINER on Connecticut - 

The Huskies caught fire at the right time once again. With their tournament hopes firmly on the bubble, Connecticut took matters into their own hands and went out and won the American Athletic Tournament title. The most impressive thing about that feat is they went on to win two more games after a 4-overtime thriller against Cincinnati. 

I look for the Huskies to carry over that momentum with an easy win here against a Colorado team that I don't think is anything special. Most of Colorado's success came at home, where the Buffaloes finished the season 16-1. Their few road (includes neutral sites) wins weren't all that impressive either. They beat Auburn, Colorado State, Penn State, Stanford and Washington State (twice). 

This is also a bad matchup for the Buffaloes. Colorado is a team that likes to get out and score in transition. Their offensive production was way down against teams who didn't allow them easy baskets in transition. UConn excels at not allowing teams to score in transition On the flip side of this, the Buffaloes are really good at not allowing team open looks from the outside. The Huskies would much rather prefer to beat you inside. 

Connecticut has gone an impressive 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 neutral site games, including a 15-3 ATS mark in their last 18 NCAA Tournament games. Colorado on the other hand has failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and are a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 post-season tournament games. Lay the points! 

5* Tulsa/Michigan First Four NO BRAINER on Tulsa +

The media has taken it out on Tulsa and how they didn't deserve to be included in the field of 68. That makes the Golden Hurricanes a dangerous team. It also has them showing great value here against the spread, as the public wants nothing to do with them. 

Michigan on the other hand is way over-valued due to upsetting Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament. Keep in mind they could have just as easily lost their tournament opener against Northwestern and would be playing in the NIT. Indiana has also had serious problems playing well in the Big Ten tournament, so that win isn't as impressive as you might think.  Prior to those two wins they had lost 6 of their previous 9. I don't trust this team away from home and fully expect the Golden Hurricanes to win this game outright. 

Tulsa has gone an impressive 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. They are also a strong 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Michigan is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against at team with a winning record. Take the points! 

3* NIT Late-Night Vegas Line Mistake on IPFW + 

San Diego State is the more talented team in this matchup, but you can't just look at them when handicapping the NIT. It's all about motivation and the edge here has to go to IPFW. The Aztecs were every bit deserving of a NCAA Tournament bid, but a loss to Fresno State in the MWC Tournament title game cost them. 

It's extremely difficult for teams like San Diego State to get motivated for a NIT game when they miss out on the NCAA Tournament because they lost their conference title game, especially when they were the clear-cut favorite to represent their conference (16-2 regular season record in the MWC). 

Playing at home isn't going to be a big enough advantage here for the Aztecs and I wouldn't be surprised if it was a less than a full house given the opponent. The Mastadons on the other hand are going to be highly motivated to showcase their talents against a team like San Diego State. 

Keep in mind the Aztecs are team built on energy and defense, two things that they likely won't have for this game. San Diego State doesn't want to be here and they will be playing their 4th game in 6 days after playing 3 straight days in the MWC Tournament. Take the points! 

4* Vanderbilt/Wichita St First Four ATS No Brainer on Wichita State -

The Shockers are one of the most dangerous double-digit seeds in the field. Wichita State opened the season ranked inside the Top 10 and had it not been for injuries early in the year, this team would be seeded much better than a #11. 

Vanderbilt has some quality wins inside the SEC against Texas A&M and Kentucky, which I'm sure will catch the eye of some. However, both of those wins came at home. When this team has been matched up against a top level opponent on the road or a neutral floor, they have failed to deliver. In fact, the Commodores went just 5-11 away from home with the wins coming against St. Johns, Wake Forest, Tennessee, Auburn and Florida. 

The dynamic duo of Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet will be too much for Vanderbilt to overcome in this one. Wichita State is a dominant 20-8 ATS in their last 28 neutral court games as a favorite of 6 points or less and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a game where they shot 20% or worse from behind the 3-point line. Lay the points! 

4* Purdue/Michigan St NCAAB Vegas Insider on Michigan St -

I really like the Spartans to not only win, but to do so in fashion. Michigan State didn't play anywhere close to their best basketball and still held on to beat Maryland yesterday. With Villanova's loss to Seton Hall, the Spartans have a legit shot at earning a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they win this game. 

Michigan State has gone 12-1 over their last 13 games. The only loss during this stretch came at Purdue 81-82. Needless to say the Spartans haven't forgot about that defeat and will be out to make a statement. Purdue has reached the Big Ten finals having beat Illinois and Michigan, both in blowout fashion. That's nothing to get excited about, as neither of those teams are all that great. That that they won both by 17+ points, has definitely kept this line a lot lower than it should be. 

Spartans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games after allowing 65 or less points in 2 straight games and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 when they come in having won 15 or more of their last 20. Purdue is 0-7 AT in their last 7 road games after 5 straight games outrebounding their opponent by 6 or more. Lay the points! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on Temple +

Connecticut was able to escape with a 104-97 win in quadruple overtime yesterday against Cincinnati. That win may have been enough to get the Huskies into the NCAA Tournament, but they simply aren't going to have enough left in the tank to compete with the Owls. Connecticut had 5 different players play at least 43 minutes, including 55 from Daniel Hamilton and 54 from Sterling Gibbs. 

While the Huskies played an extra 20 minutes of basketball, Temple cruised to a 79-62 win over South Florida. The Owls are in good position to make the tournament, but can greatly help their seeding by winning the AAC tournament. Temple also poses a tough matchup for Connecticut. The Owls won both regular season meetings and in both games held the Huskies under 40% shooting. 

Temple is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a conference win by 10 or more points, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on a neutral site. Take the points! 

4* NCAAB Late Night Vegas Insider on Tulsa -

The Golden Hurricanes are showing some great value here against Memphis. Tulsa is going to be out for revenge from a 82-92 loss at Memphis back on 2/28. The key thing to keep in mind with that result, is the Tigers were playing at home. Memphis went a miserable 3-8 in their 11 games on the road this season. 

That loss to the Tigers was the only real bad effort out of the Golden Hurricanes down the stretch. They went 6-2 over their final 8 games with the only other loss coming by a mere 2-points at Connecticut. 

Memphis is just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 as a road dog, 6-16 ATS in their last 22 off a road win by 10 or more and 1-9 ATS this season off a game where they covered the spread. Tulsa is 19-5 ATS in their last 24 off a SU win by 10 or more against a conference opponent and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record. Lay the points! 

5* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St Bonaventure - 

The Bonnies are showing great value here at basically a pick'em against the Wildcats. St. Bonaventure has quietly been playing their best basketball of the season. The Bonnies closed out the regular season with 5 straight wins and won 10 of their last 11 overall. 

Davidson was able to defeat Lasalle 78-63 yesterday in their A-10 Tournament opener, but this is not a team that you can trust on the road. The Wildcats went just 4-10 away from home all season and that includes a 12-point loss at St Bonaventure. The Bonnies also have a big advantage here having received a first round bye. 

St Bonaventure is 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons in the month of March, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after scoring 75+ points in each of their last 2 games. Take the Bonnies! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on LSU -

The Tigers only hope of making the NCAA Tournament is to win the SEC Tournament and it starts with today's game against Tennessee. LSU caught a big break with Vanderbilt losing to the Volunteers and I look for the Tigers to make easy work of what should be a worn down Tennessee team. 

The Volunteers will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, while the Tigers received a double-bye. Tennessee started to show signs of the fatigue setting in, as they nearly blew a 12-poing halftime lead, barely holding on for a 67-65 win. I just don't see the Volunteers being able to match the intensity of LSU, who is also going to come into this game look for revenge from a ugly 65-81 loss at Tennessee in the only meeting during the regular season. 

The Volunteers are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off an upset win over a conference opponent and just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 off a SU win. LSU had won 2 straight prior to losing 77-94 at Kentucky in their regular season finale, but are a strong 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 following a SU loss. Lay the points! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Miami -

The Hurricanes closed out the regular season with an ugly 15-point loss at Virginia Tech and the Hokies come into this game having won 6 straight, including a 96-85 win as a 5-point dog in yesterday's matchup with Florida State. 

Miami likely didn't take the Hokies seriously in their regular season finale, as they were just coming off 3 straight wins against Virginia, Louisville and Notre Dame and had already beat Virginia Tech by 16 at home. Not only will the Hurricane be extremely motivated with revenge on their minds, but they also have a chance to play their way into a No.2 seed if they can make a deep run in the ACC Tournament. 

Miami is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games, 3-1 ATS in their last 4 when revenging a road loss, 2-0 ATS this season off a loss by 15 or more and 3-0 ATS in all tournament games. Lay the points! 

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Wisconsin -

The Badgers are showing great value here against the Cornhuskers. Wisconsin closed out the regular season with an ugly 80-91 loss at Purdue, which is definitely helping this line. That loss shouldn't be judged in a negative way. The focus should be more on how dominant the Badgers were down the stretch run of Big Ten play. 

Nebraska was the exact opposite. The Cornhuskers lost 5 straight and 9 of their last 11 in the regular season. That fact that they come in off a 17-point win against Rutgers isn't anything to worry about, as the Scarlet Knights are awful. I just don't see Nebraska being able to put up a fight here against a pissed off Wisconsin team that is more than capable of winning this tournament. 

Nebraska is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they covered the spread and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record. Lay the points! 

3* NCAAB No-Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Xavier -

I look for the Musketeers to come out looking to make a statement in their conference tournament opener and they will have a big advantage here. While Marquette had to play yesterday against St John's, Xavier got a first round bye. That extra rest is critical this time of year.

This might seem like a big number for the Musketeers to be laying given their two wins against Marquette in the regular season came by just 8 and 9 points, but I'm not concerned about those results. Xavier could have easily won both of those games by double-digits. If anything, those close calls will have the Musketeers completely focused on the task at hand.

Marquette is just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after scoring more than 90 points. Xavier is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. Lay the points!

5* NCAAB ACC Game of the Month on Virginia -

Georgia Tech rallied from an 18-point deficit to stun Clemson 88-85 in the opening round of the ACC Tournament yesterday. As impressive as that wins looks on paper, it has the Yellow Jackets in an awful spot tonight against a Virginia team that is playing their best basketball and fighting for a No. 1 seed. 

Making matters even worse for Georgia Tech is they are going to get a pissed off Virginia team, as the Cavaliers will be out for revenge from a 64-68 road loss back in early January. Virginia wasn't playing anywhere close to the level that they were to close out the season. With the way they get it after it defensively and the Yellow Jackets not having a whole lot left in the tank, this game should get ugly in a hurry. 

Neutral court teams that are revenging a loss as a favorite and are coming off 3 straight covers as a favorite are 25-5 (83%) ATS since 1997. Lay the points! 

5* NCAAB SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt -

Tennessee was able to come away with an impressive 97-59 win over Auburn in the opening round of the SEC Tournament, but that's nothing to get excited about. Without Kevin Punter the Volunteers are simply not a serious threat and I look for them to struggle to keep it competitive against the Commodores. Vanderbilt owned Tennessee in both meetings during the regular season, winning by 14 on the road and 17 at home. 

While you might think that could be reason for Vanderbilt not to take the Volunteers seriously, I don't believe that will be the case. Tennessee was the team responsible for knocking out Vanderbilt in last year's SEC Tournament. Prior to their win against the Tigers, the Volunteers closed out the regular season with 4 straight losses, all by 10 or more points. Those struggles were a direct result of Punter's absence and not having him on no rest will be too much to overcome. Lay the points. 

4* NCAAB Big Ten Game of the Week on Iowa - 

The Hawkeyes went from a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament to a team that is flying under the radar going into the Big 10 Tournament. Iowa was able to close out the regular season with an impressive 71-61 win at Michigan and I look for them to come out looking to make a statement against the Fighting Illini. 

The Hawkeyes are more than capable of winning this tournament. Getting off to a strong start will be a focal point for them, as they have been upset in the first round each of the last two years. I just don't see Illinois putting up much of a fight in this one. The Illini had to play yesterday against Minnesota and really struggled at home against the Hawkeyes in the lone meeting this season. Iowa won by just 12, but had a 20-point lead with less than 10 minutes to play. 

Don't be fooled by Illinois' 33-point win over Minnesota, as the Gophers were decimated with suspensions and injuries that simply gave them zero chance of being competitive. The Illini are just 5-10 in their last 15 games and those 5 wins have all come against Minnesota (3-times) and Rutgers (2-times). 

Illinois is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games, 2-7 ATS interior last 9 against a team with a winning record and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win. Lay the points! 

3* NCAAB Situational No-Doubt BLOWOUT on Illinois -

If you haven't been following Minnesota closely down the stretch, this is going to seem like a big number for Illinois to be laying against the Gophers. However, it's for good reason. Minnesota is without 5 of their top 6 scorers. Kevin Dorsey, Nate Mason and Dupree McBrayer were all suspended for the season. They also lost Joey King to a broken foot and Carlos Morris has been dismissed. The Gophers have just 8 players available and 3 of them or walk-ons. 

Head coach Richard Pitino had this to say after Minnesota's 23-point loss to Rutgers, "It is next to impossible right now with the situation we were dealt to score points. With Joey (King) we could play small, but his injury was the icing on the cake."

Keep in mind that Rutgers was 0-17 in conference play and had lost to the Gophers by 22-points prior to King's injury and the 3 players getting suspended. Minnesota just wants this season to be over with and I just don't see them being able to keep it competitive against a hungry Illinois team that is going to be motivated to advance to Thursday's action. 

Illinois is a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons after 15+ games against a team that's won between 20% and 40% of their games and have won these contests by 18.7 ppg.Gophers are also just 2-14 ATS in their last 16 road games after scoring 60 points or less in 2 straight games. Lay the points! 

4* Conference Tournament VEGAS INSIDER on Duke -

The Blue Devils should have no problem cashing in a win and cover against NC State in the 2nd round of the ACC Tournament. The Wolfpack had to play yesterday, while Duke enjoyed a first round bye. NC State used up a ton of energy in a hard fought 75-72 win over Wake Forest and I just don't see them having the energy to keep pace with the Blue Devils.

Keep in mind that the Wolfpack don't have a lot of depth. Only 7 players played against the Demon Deacons and one of the reserves logged just 6 minutes. That's a recipe for disaster against a Duke team that is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after losing their regular season finale at home to rival North Carolina. The Blue Devils won both meetings in the regular season by at least 8 and I fully expect a double-digit blowout in this one. Keep in mind they played in last year's ACC Tournament and Duke won 77-53 as a 9-point favorite. 

It's also important to note that of the Wolfpack's 6 conference wins in the regular season, only 1 came on the road. This is not a team that travels well. NC State is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against at team what's won more than 60% of their games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a SU win. Lay the points! 

5* Gonzaga/St. Mary's NCAAB *BEST BET* on Gonzaga - 

I backed the Bulldogs with success last night in their win over BYU and I'm jumping right back on the train with Gonzaga as a small favorite against St. Mary's. The Bulldogs are really clicking offensively right now. Gonzaga has scored 92 and 88 points in their first two games of the WCC Tournament, which is important to note. 

St Mary's won both of the regular season meetings, but were fortunate to do so in both. They won by 3-points at home after trailing by 8 at the half. They then won by 5 at Gonzaga thanks to the Bulldogs shooting just 35.5% from the field and 19.2% from behind the 3-point line. Beating a top level team like Gonzaga 3 times in the same season is extremely difficult to do and I look for the Bulldogs to get their revenge and punch an automatic ticket to the NCAA Tournament. 

The most recent loss in this series was a home and that sets up the Bulldogs in a great situation. Gonzaga is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games when revenging a loss as a home favorite. Bulldogs are also 30-16 ATS in their last 46 after two straight games with a combined score of 155 or more and have won these by an average of 14.4 ppg. Lay the points! 

4* BYU/Gonzaga Late-Night Vegas Insider on Gonzaga - 

The Bulldogs are on the NCAA Tournament bubble and the only way to make sure they get included in the field of 68, is win the West Coast Conference Tournament. They got off to a strong start with a 92-67 win against Portland on Saturday. Gonzaga is now 10-2 in their last 12 games, with the only two losses come at SMU and at home against St. Mary's.

Gonzaga's went 15-3 inside conference play and their only 4 losses outside of the conference were against Texas A&M (61-62), Arizona (63-68), UCLA (66-71) and SMU (60-69). Overall the Bulldogs haven't lost a game all season by more than 9 points and could easily be sitting with just 2 or 3 losses instead of 7.

The Bulldogs did lose at home to BYU 68-69 back in early January, but returned the favor with a 71-68 win at BYU in the regular season finale. In both games against the Cougars, Gonzaga's defense was on point. They held BYU to 36.8% shooting in the first meeting and 32.8% in the rematch. 

I believe the Bulldogs are one of the more underrated teams in the country and we are simply getting too good of a price to pass up. Gonzaga is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 semi-final matchups in tournament play on the road, while BYU is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 tournament games overall and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 when listed as a dog of 3 or less in a neutral court contest. Lay the points! 

4* NCAAB AAC Game of the Week on Temple -

With a win the Owls can clinch at least a share of the AAC regular season title and if SMU were to lose at Cincinnati they would take home the outright title. That's more than enough motivation for Temple to go on the road and take care of business by 7 or more points against Tulane. 

The Green Wave have been in a free fall to close out the season, losing 4 straight and 14 of their last 17 overall. Every one of those 14 losses during this stretch have come by at least 6 points, which is a good indicator that if Temple does their job they win here by more than the number. The Owls have won 8 of their last 10, including an impressive 10-point win at home against Memphis last time out. 

Tulane will be playing their final home game, which can often be a big positive, but that's not the case here. The Green Wave are just 6-9 at home and are simply outclassed in this one. Temple is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 off a win by 10 or more and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against at team with a losing home record. Tulane is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 against at team with a winning record, 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after losing 4 of their last 5. Lay the points! 

4* NCAAB No Limit Vegas Insider on Dayton -

The Flyers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against VCU. Dayton is simply getting zero respect from the books right now, as they haven't covered the spread in 7 straight games. I look for that to change in a big way, as this is a statement game for Dayton at home against the Rams. The Flyers have dropped 2 straight at home after opening the season 13-1 on their home floor. 

VCU is a quality team, but not nearly as good on the road as they are at home, where they finished up with a 15-2 record. This is also a bit of a letdown spot for the Rams, as they really put a lot into their home finale against Davidson last time out. There's also a little extra incentive here for the Flyers, as they can bring home a share of the A-10 title with a win. Lay the points! 

5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Month on Texas Tech - 

The Red Raiders are showing exceptional value here at home against the Wildcats. Texas Tech is on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament and simply can't afford to lose this game. That's not the only reason we can count on the Red Raiders to bring one of their best efforts of the season. Texas Tech will be highly motivated off back-to-back ugly losses to Kansas and West Virginia (both on the road) and will also be out for revenge from an ugly 13-point loss at Kansas State. 

Prior to dropping back-to-back games on the road to the Jayhawks and Mountaineers, the Red Raiders were playing as well as any team in the conference. Texas Tech has won 5 straight, which included impressive home wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma and a big road win over Baylor. 

Kansas State comes into this game off a 25-point blowout win at home against TCU, which is definitely playing into this number. However, that was a golden spot for the Wildcats. The Horned Frogs are awful on the road and no reason for them to get up for a below average team like Kansas State. On the flip side, the Wildcats were playing their final home game, so they gave max effort. Now it's Tech playing their home finale and I look for an easy win for the Red Raiders. 

Texas Tech is 34-19 ATS in their last 53 home games off a loss by 15 or more and 24-11 ATS in their last 35 after playing 2 straight on the road. Red Raiders are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record. Kansas State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Lay the points! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Georgia Tech Pick'em

The Yellow Jackets are showing great value here at home against the Panthers. Georgia Tech comes in off a hard fought 53-56 loss at Louisville as a 12-point underdog, continuing their impressive play down the stretch. Prior to that defeat the Yellow Jackets had won 4 straight. 

Pittsburgh had that big win at home against Duke in their home finale, but following it up with a 61-65 loss at Virginia Tech. The Panthers are now just 4-6 in their last 10 and are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. 

Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games when listed as a pick'em or favorite and just 5-13 ATS in their lsat 18 road games overall. The Panthers are also just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 65 or less in 2 straight games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 against teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ after 15+ games. Georgia Tech on the other hand is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against strong rebounding teams who are outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game. Take the Yellow Jackets! 

3* NCAAB No-Doubt Heavy Hitter on Baylor -

The Bears are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Mountaineers. West Virginia is simply getting to much respect on the road due to having won 3 straight and being ranked in the Top 10. The Mountaineers simply don't have a lot to gain with a win in this one, as Kansas has already locked up the Big 12 regular season title. 

I just don't see West Virginia being able to match the intensity of the Bears, who will be extremely motivated off a heartbreaking 71-73 loss at Oklahoma and this being their final home game of the season. Baylor has a big home court edge, as they are 14-4 at home. West Virginia is a respectable 10-5 on the road, but have struggled against the top teams away from home. 

This is also a big revenge game for Baylor, who got embarrassed by 11-points at West Virginia earlier this season. Keep in mind that prior to that defeat, the Bears had won the previous 4 games in this series. Mountaineers are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 6-17 ATS in their last 23 road games after 3 or more conference wins. Lay the points! 

4* Missouri Valley Tournament NO BRAINER on Evansville -

The Purple Aces should have no problem covering this big number against Missouri State. Evansville received a first round bye in the MVC Tournament and that's a big advantage. The Bears had to play last night and barely escaped with a 69-67 win over Drake. Playing on no rest will be too much for Missouri State to overcome. 

This is also a bad matchup for the Bears. Evansville won 76-59 at Missouri State on 1/2 and followed that up with a 83-64 win at home on 2/6. In both meetings the Purple Aces held the Bears under 35% shooting.

Evansville had won 4 straight prior to suffering a heartbreaking 52-54 loss to Northern Iowa in their regular season finale, so the Purple Aces enter tournament play with some confidence. Their NCAA Tournament lives are also at stake, as they must win MVC to earn an automatic bid. 

Missouri State is 4-15 ATS in their last 19 as an underdog of 10 or more, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games off a conference win and 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Evansville is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a loss by 3 points or less. Lay the points! 

5* American Athletic Game of the Month on SMU - 

The Mustangs have put together a tremendous season, despite the fact that they are not eligible for postseason play. SMU has gone 24-4 and come into this game riding a 3-game winning streak. The only thing left for the Mustangs to play for is a conference title and right now they are tied with Temple on top the standings. This is also a big game for several of the SMU players, as this will be their final home game of the season. 

Connecticut comes in trying to fight out of slump. The Huskies have lost 2 of 3, including an ugly 68-75 home loss to Houston last time out. Connecticut was able to hold on for a 68-62 win at home over SMU back on 2/18, which also plays into the favor of the Mustangs, as they will be out for revenge.  

Huskies are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games with a total set at 130 to 134.5 points. SMU on the other hand is 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games after allowing 30 points or less in the 1st half of their last game, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after a win by 20 or more and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games with a total of 130 to 134.5. Lay the points! 

4* NCAAB C-USA Game of the Week on Marshall -

The Thundering Herd are showing some great value here at home against the Bulldogs. Marshall comes into this game off back-to-back road losses to UAB and Middle Tennessee, which is definitely helping this line. The Thundering Herd are simply a different team at home than they are on the road. Marshall is 6-1 on their home floor inside conference play with the only loss coming against conference leader UAB (3-game lead over next best team) by just 3 points. All 6 wins have come by double-digits. 

Louisiana Tech has an overall record of 22-7, while Marshall is just 15-14, but both teams are an identical 11-5 inside conference play. The Bulldogs are simply getting to much respect here. They are just 1-2 in their last 3 road games, losing by 11 at both UTEP and North Texas. The win coming against the worst team in the conference in UTSA. 

Marshall is 32-16 ATS in their last 48 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and a perfect 6-0 TS in their last 6 when they have lost 2 of their last 3. Louisiana Tech is 9-19 ATS in their last 28 off a win, 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after playing 2 straight as a home favorite and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 or more. Lay the points! 

4* NCAAB Late-Night BAILOUT on USC -

The Trojans come into this game having lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, which has put their NCAA Tournament hopes in jeopardy. It also has USC way undervalued here at home against the Beavers. Of their 5 losses during their current skid, 4 have come on the road, where they are just 4-9 on the season. The other was a home against one of the Pac-12 powers in Utah. 

That loss to the Utes was the Trojans only defeat at home this season, as they are a dominant 15-1 at the Galen Center. This is the definition of a must-win game, as they have league leader Oregon on deck. Oregon State comes in off back-to-back wins, but both of those came at home. The Beavers are just 1-6 on the road in Pac-12 play with all 6 losses coming by at least 6 points. At the same time, USC's only home win by fewer than 7 points was against Arizona. 

Oregon State is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference road games, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games off a home win. Lay the points! 

4* NCAAB Situational Dog of the Week on Texas Tech +

This is too many points for the Mountaineers to be laying at home against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is playing as well as any team in the Big 12 not named Kansas right now. They had won 5 straight prior to a 58-67 defeat at Kansas last time out, which they easily covered as a 13.5-point dog. During their 5-game winning streak they won at Baylor 84-66 and at Oklahoma State 71-61. 

West Virginia is an impressive 12-2 at home and will be playing their final home game of the season, which I believe is a big reason for this inflated line. What is getting overlooked here is this being a bit of a letdown for the Mountaineers, who no longer have a shot at earning a share of the Big 12 title after Kansas' win at Texas on Monday. 

West Virginia did win 80-76 at Texas Tech back on 1/23, but the Red Raiders actually had a 4-point lead with less than a minute to play. That was back when Texas Tech was struggling. This is a different team right now and I wouldn't be shocked if they got their revenge and pulled off the upset. 

Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Big 12 overall. Texas Tech is also 10-3 ATS in their last 13 after a game in which they covered the spread. It's also worth noting that the road team has covered 8 of the last 9 in the series. Take the points! 

3* NCAAB No-Doubt ATS Blowout on Notre Dame -

Not only is this a great price to back the Irish at home, but a great spot as well. Notre Dame is going to be extremely motivated off an ugly 56-77 road loss to Florida State. A game they were favored to win by 3-points. While you would expect a better effort than what they gave against the Seminoles, keep in mind that the Irish are just 6-8 on the road compared to a dominant 13-1 at home. Notre Dame is 9-4 in their last 13 and all 4 losses have come on the road. 

Not only are we getting great value here due to how bad the Irish looked last time out, but Miami is getting all kinds of love here after back-to-back home wins over Virginia and Louisville. While it looks impressive on paper, Miami is 15-1 at home, so that's nothing to get excited about. Last time the Hurricanes played on the road they were embarrassed in a 25-points loss to North Carolina. They also have lost by 8+ on the road against the likes of NC State, Clemson and Virginia. 

Notre Dame is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 after a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 at home. Miami on the other hand is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. Lay the points! 

5* NCAAB No Limit *BEST BET* on Iowa - 

The Hawkeyes are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Hoosiers. Iowa has stumbled of late with 3 straight loss and have failed to cover 5 in a row. That's a big reason why we are getting a favorable line with the Hawkeyes at home. What gets overlooked is that Iowa could have easily won each of their last 3 games, as they were right there with a chance to win late. 

I look for an inspired effort here from the Hawkeyes in their home finale, as Iowa sends out 4 senior starters. The Hawkeyes are also a dominant 13-1 at home this season and will be out for revenge from a 78-85 loss at Indiana. The Hoosiers are 5-3 on the road in the Big Ten, but those 5 wins have come against Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Michigan and Illinois. 

Indiana is just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a conference win by 10 or more points, 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after covering 2 of their last 3, and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after a blowout win by 20 or more. Iowa is 8-1 ATS at home over the last 3 seasons against teams who average 21 or more 3-point attempts and a perfect 6-0 in this spot after 15+ games. Lay the points! 

4* NCAAAB  Situational NO BRAINER on Dayton -

The Flyers are showing some great value here as a small road favorite against the Spiders. Dayton is simply undervalued right now due to the fact that they have failed to cover the spread in 6 straight games and are coming off an ugly 66-75 home loss to Rhode Island as a 7-point favorite. 

This has the Flyers in a prime bounce back spot on the road, where they have gone an impressive 9-3 this season and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning home record. Richmond comes in off a 83-67 win at Duquesne, but had lost 3 straight prior to that. The Spiders are just 2-4 in their last 6 home games and mere 9-6 overall. 

Richmond will be playing their 3rd game in a week span and are just 3-11 ATS in this situation over the last 2 seasons. The Spiders are also just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 as an underdog, 1-4 AS in their last 5 off a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Lay the points! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Green Bay + 

The Phoenix are showing great value here as a home dog against the Crusaders. This is the final game of the regular season for both teams, which is important to note. Valparaiso has already locked up the top spot in the Horizon League and it's going to be extremely hard for the Crusaders to take this game seriously. Valparaiso still needs to win the Horizon League Tournament to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament, making this last game meaningless for the road team. 

Green Bay on the other hand is going to be looking to make a statement at home against the top team in the conference. The Phoenix have been playing extremely well of late, as they come in having won 4 straight. Green Bay is also a dominant 11-2 at home this season. We saw Valpo struggle in a similar spot last time out against Milwaukee, who is not as good as the Phoenix. The Crusaders needed overtime to win 80-76 as a 5-point road favorite. 

Green Bay is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games off a home win where they scored 85 or more points and 58-38 ATS in their last 96 home games revenging a loss to an opponent. Valparaiso is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win. Take the points! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Purdue -

The Boilermakers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Terrapins. Maryland beat Purdue 72-61 at home back on 2/6, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate. In fact, the Boilermakers actually led by 4-points with 6 minutes to go.

Not only is Purdue going to be highly motivated to get their revenge, but they also will be focused and ready to go at home off a heartbreaking 73-77 loss at rival Indiana last time out. Add in the fact that the Boilermakers haven't played since last Saturday and we can expect to see an all-out effort here. Keep in mind that Purdue is a dominant 15-1 at home this season and while the Terrapins are 8-4 on the road, they have had a number of close calls go their way away from home. 

Purdue is a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 revenging a road loss of 10 or more points, 15-7 ATS in their last 22 off a SU loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. Maryland. is 1-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 85+ points in their previous game. Lay the points! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami -

The Hurricanes are showing exceptional value here against the Cardinals. Miami and Louisville both sit tied for 2nd in the ACC standings at 11-4, but the big difference is that only the Hurricanes are eligible for postseason play. I know Louisville has been playing well since the ban was put in place, but they are getting too much respect here on the road. 

Louisville lost at Duke 65-72 and at Notre Dame 66-71 in their first two road games after the ban was announced. They they won two straight at home before going on the road to beat Pitt last time out. That win over the Panthers was their only conference road win against a team with a winning conference record and Pitt is just 8-7. Miami is 14-1 at home with a perfect record at home inside ACC play. 

Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their previous game at home. Louisville is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7. Add it up and that's a perfect 19-0 system backing Miami! Laying the points! 

3* NCAAB Early Bird NO BRAINER on Georgia -

The Bulldogs are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Rebels. Georgia is simply getting undervalued here due to having lost 3 straight. Two of those came on the road where they are just 2-12 on the season and the other was at home against Florida by just 4-points. This is a big time statement game for Georgia and I wouldn't be surprised if this turned into a blowout. 

Ole Miss comes in having won two straight, which is helping the number here, but those two wins have come against the two worst teams in the SEC in Auburn and Missouri. The Rebels are just 2-6 in their last 8 road games and the two lone wins have come against none other than Auburn and Missouri. Ole Miss is also in a tough spot here. Georgia isn't exactly a team worth getting excited about, especially considering they pulled out a 72-71 win at home over the Bulldogs. On top of that, this is a huge lookahead spot for Ole Miss, as they host in-state rival Mississippi State in their home finale next time out. 

Georgia is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss, 58-37 ATS in their last 95 home games as a favorite of 6 or less and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 after going over the total in 2 or more consecutive games. Lay the points! 

5* Pac-12 Game of the Month on California -

This may seem like a big number for the Golden Bears to be laying against UCLA, but I actually think we are getting some great value here with California. The Golden Bears are a perfect 16-0 SU and 11-5 ATS at home this season. In their last 3 home games they have beat Stanford by 15, Oregon by 20 and Oregon State by 12. They have won 5 straight overall and are just 1-game out of 1st place in the Pac-12. 

UCLA comes into this game off an impressive 77-53 win at home against Colorado as a mere 5-point favorite, which only makes the Bruins look that much more enticing with the line set here. However, UCLA is just 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS on the road this season. We have seen the Bruins lose by 14 at Oregon and 19 at USC. 

UCLA is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after winning 2 of their previous 3 games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games off a win. Overall the Bruins are a mere 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing against a team that's won between 60% and 80% of their games. Cal is 10-1 ATS in their last 12 off a SU win and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Lay the points! 

3* NCAAB No-Doubt Rout on SMU -

It's well known that the only thing SMU is playing for is a conference regular season title, as they are not eligible for postseason play. Right now the Mustangs sit a 1/2 game back of Temple in the AAC standings and simply can't afford to lose this game. I believe that's more than enough motivation for SMU to win and cover on the road against the Tigers. 

The Mustangs defeated Memphis 80-68 back on 1/30. While you could argue that the Tigers will be out for revenge, they have really struggled to match up with SMU over the last 2 seasons. The Mustangs have won 3 straight in the series and all 3 wins have come by at least 9 points. SMU held Memphis to just 32.8% shooting in the first meeting and had a 51-35 (+16) edge on the boards. That edge on the boards is something that should carry over to this game and that is more than enough reason to back the Mustangs with this small number on the road. 

Memphis is a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games when listed as an underdog and have lost these games by nearly 10.0 ppg. The Tigers are also just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. Lay the points! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Colorado +

The Buffaloes are showing big time value here as a decently priced home dog against the Wildcats. Colorado is a dominant 14-1 at home this season with the only loss coming by just 2-points against Utah. That defeat came back on 1/8 and the Buffaloes have since won 6 straight at home. 

Arizona is simply way overvalued right now due to having won 6 straight, but 4 of those 6 wins came at home. Their only legit road test during this stretch was at Washington and they only won by 5-points. Keep in mind the Wildcats have already lost at Cal, UCLA and USC and could find themselves looking past the Buffaloes to Saturday's huge road game at Utah, which has major implications for the Pac-12 regular season title. 

Arizona is just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 road games after a game where they only had 8 or fewer turnovers and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record. Colorado is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games with a total of 140 to 149.5, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 20 points and 22-9 ATS in their last 31 Pac-12 games overall. Take the points! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt BLOWOUT on South Carolina -

This might seem like a big number for the Gamecocks to be laying against a Tennessee team that just defeated LSU 81-65 at home as a 3-point dog, but this line has been set for a reason. The Volunteers are a completely different team on the road than they are at home. Tennessee is 12-2 at home compared to a miserable 1-12 on the road. 

Making matters even worse for the Volunteers is the fact that they likely won't have the services of their best player. Kevin Punter is doubtful with a foot injury and he's one player Tennessee can't afford to lose. Punter not only leads the team with 22.2 ppg, but he's the heart and soul of this team. 

South Carolina isn't going to take the Volunteers lightly, regardless of who takes the floor, as Tennessee defeated the Gamecocks 78-69 back on 1/23. Revenge will be on the minds of South Carolina at home, where they are 14-1 this season. Given the likely absence of Punter and Tennessee's struggles on the road, this game has blowout written all over it! 

Volunteers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off an upset win against a conference opponent, while South Carolina is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 revenging a SU loss as a favorite. Lay the points! 

4* ACC Game of the Week on Pittsburgh +

It's well known that Louisville is not eligible for postseason play, but with the Cardinals coming into this game off back-to-back impressive wins over Syracuse (72-58) and Duke (71-64), we are getting great value on the Panthers at home. Key thing to keep in mind is both of those wins came at home. Louisville lost both road games after the self-imposed ban was announced and are just 1-7 ATS in road games this season, including an 0-6 ATS record inside conference play. 

As of right now, Pittsburgh is safely in the field of 68, but it's not a sure thing just yet. A win over Louisville would really help the Panthers resume, plus this is a huge revenge game for Pittsburgh, who was embarrassed by 18-points at Louisville back on 1/14. Having already beat the Panthers by double-digits, there's really not a lot of the Cardinals to get excited about with this matchup. I look for Pittsburgh to be the much more motivated team and wouldn't be surprised if they won this game going away. 

Cardinals are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games off a SU win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the points! 

3* NCAAB Situational Oddsmakers Error on NC State +

NC State is showing great value here as a relatively big home dog against in-state rival North Carolina. While the Wolfpack are just 4-10 inside ACC play they could be a lot better. NC State has 5 losses by 7-points or less in conference play and all but one of their defeats has come by 11 or fewer. That includes a 55-67 defeat at North Carolina back on 1/16. 

The fact that they were able to keep it respectable at North Carolina is a good sign, as the Tar Heels are only outscoring opponents by 6.4 ppg on the road. This is also a tough spot for North Carolina, who comes in off a huge 96-71 win at home against Miami and has a massive game on deck at Virginia. 

While NC State is just 1-2 in their last 3 home games against the Tar Heels, the two losses came by a combined 3-points, including a 1-point loss in overtime. North Carolina is 2-9 ATS in their last 10 off a home win by 10 or more and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference win by 20 or more points. Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against at team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 revenging a same season loss. Take the points! 

5* Big East Game of the Month on Xavier -

The Musketeers went on the road and were embarrassed 64-95 at Villanova in the conference opener back on 12/31. Needless to say, Xavier has had this game circled on their calendar ever since that defeat. The Musketeers have gone an impressive 12-2 since that loss and come in having won 3 straight by at least 14-points. All 3 of those wins have come against stiff competition. They beat Butler by 17 on the road, Providence by 11 at home and Georgetown by 18 on the road. 

Villanova is the No. 1 ranked team in the country, which hasn't exactly been a blessing this season. The Wildcats come in having won 7 straight and are 11-2 on the road, but have had some close calls away from home against inferior teams than the Xavier. The Musketeers are 13-1 at home and will be the more motivated team in this one. 

Favorites is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 games in this series, while Xavier is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less. That's a perfect 24-0 (100%) system backing the Musketeers. Lay the Points! 

4* SEC Revenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida -

Florida comes into this contest off a 69-73 overtime loss at South Carolina, where they failed to cover the spread as a 2.5-point dog. The Gators are now just 1-5 ATS in their last 6, which I believe has them showing some big time value here at home against Vanderbilt, who is being overvalued off a 13-point win and cover at home against Georgia. Florida is a dominant 12-2 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 15.1 ppg, while the Commodores are just 2-8 in their last 10 true road games. Gators also have revenge on their minds from a heartbreaking 59-60 loss at Vanderbilt, where they shot a miserable 32.9% from the field. 

Florida head coach Mike White is 9-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less and 13-4 ATS in his last 17 against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 39% or worse from the field. Gators are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than 40%, while Vanderbilt is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off a game where they covered the spread. We'll lay the number behind this 43-8 ATS system! 

5* Iowa St/W Virginia Big 12 Game of the Week on Iowa St -

Iowa State is showing some great value here as a decently priced road dog against the struggling Mountaineers. West Virginia has lost 2 straight and 3 of their last 4 overall, including an ugly 62-76 home loss to Oklahoma last time out. 

Iowa State simply isn't getting a lot of respect right now, as they have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. This line is also inflated due to the fact that the Cyclones lost at home 76-81 to the Mountaineers as a 5-point favorite. Prior to that defeat, Iowa State had won each of the previous 3 meetings in the series, including a 74-72 win at West Virginia as a 4.5-point dog in their last trip to Morgantown. 

Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a double-digit loss at home, while the Cyclones are 58-38 ATS in their last 96 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on Monday. Take Iowa State! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Missouri St -

The Bears are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Ramblers, as we are seeing a big overreaction to both of these teams last game. Loyola-Chicago upset a red-hot Northern Iowa team 59-56 as a 4.5-point home dog, while Missouri State got embarrassed by 31-points in a 68-99 loss at Wichita State. 

The Ramblers also come in having covered 4 straight, which is definitely playing into this small number. The key here is we have Loyola in a huge letdown spot after that big home win and the Bears primed for a max effort at home off that ugly loss. Keep in mind that the Ramblers are just 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS on the road this season. 

Loyola is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as a home dog, while the Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a conference loss by 20 or more points. Take Missouri State!