Sports Picks & Predictions

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Notre Dame -

I look for the Fighting Irish to lay a beating on the Yellow Jackets at home tonight. Notre Dame enters riding a 4-game winning streak and are well rested having not played since last Saturday (2/18). The Irish aren't going to over look Georgia Tech here, as they got BC on deck and have revenge on their mind from a 60-62 loss at Georgia Tech back on 1/28. Yellow Jackets have exceeded expectations, but they have struggled on the road, especially against the top tier teams of the ACC. I expect that trend to continue.

Irish are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a winning streak of 3 or more games, 15-5 ATS in their lat 20 home games when playing against a marginal winning team and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Notre Dame!

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Xavier +

I really like the value here with the Musketeers as a home dog against the Bulldogs. Xavier comes in having lost 4 straight, which has them undervalued. It started with a home loss to Villanova, which is nothing to be ashamed about and then they lost 3 straight on the road. What a lot will overlook is they played a number of those with Bluiett. He returned in their last game at Seton Hall and it was their best showing in weeks. I look for them to snap out of their funk at home against Butler, who is poised for a bit of a letdown here after that huge road upset over Villanova.

Musketeers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 as a home underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 after playing 3 straight on the road. Butler is only 1-4 ATS last 5 as a favorite and 0-4 ATS last 4 off a cover. Take Xavier!

5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Month on Texas +

I really like the value here with the Longhorns as a decently priced home dog against the Jayhawks. Texas was competitive in a 12-point loss at KU earlier this season and are going to be 100% locked in for revenge against the best the Big 12 has to offer. Last time out the Jayhawks secured yet another Big 12 title and that's a big relief for the players, as no one wants to be the ones who are responsible for stopping the streak. I believe that has Kansas primed for a letdown here on the road against a team they know they are better than.

Kansas covered last time out and that's a good thing, as they are just 1-8 ATS this season after covering the number in their last game. Longhorns on the other hand are 20-4 ATS in their last 24 home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when revenging a road loss. Take Texas!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Iowa State -

The general public is going to look at this line and want to jump all over No. 9 Baylor as a dog against the Cyclones, but my money is on Iowa State to Knock off the Bears at home. The Cyclones should have beat Baylor earlier this season on the road, but ended up losing 63-65. ISU enters this meeting playing their best basketball of the season. They have won 4 straight and 5 of 6 overall, which includes that road win over Kansas. Baylor is getting a lot of love, but are just 3-3 in their last 6 games and I'm just not buying them being a Top 10 team.

Iowa State has a huge homecourt edge which is why they are favored here. Cyclones are 32-16 ATS in their last 48 home games off a conference win and a ridiculous 26-4 ATS in their last 30 home games as a favorite of 3 or less. Baylor on the other hand is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after playing 3 straight games as a favorite. Take Iowa State!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Memphis +

I really like the value here with the Tigers as a massive road dog against the Bearcats. Cincinnati is clearly the better team, but I just feel the books have drastically inflated this line in their favor. These two teams play a very similar style, which more times than not is going to lead to a competitive game. Memphis is certainly going to bring everything they have to this one, as they desperately need a win after losing their last 2.

Cincinnati's defense has been great of late, but the Bearcats are 0-8 ATS over the last 2 seasons after allowing 65 points or less in 4 straight games. On the flip side of this, the Tigers are a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons when coming off 2 straight conference losses. Take Memphis!

5* American Athletic Game of the Month on Connecticut +

I really like the value here with the Huskies as a good sized dog against the Cougars. UConn comes in playing the best basketball of the season, as they have won 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall. That includes outright wins at UCF and Temple. Houston has also been playing well but come in off a crushing 66-76 home loss to SMU, which will be tough to bounce back from. The Huskies also will be coming out with a chip on their shoulder, as the Cougars embarrassed them 62-46 on their home floor earlier this season. Note that came with UConn missing it's best player in Jalen Adams, who is averaging a team-high 14.9 ppg and 6.6 apg.

Huskies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games off an upset win as an underdog and 34-14 ATS in their last 48 after a win by 3 points or less. Take Connecticut!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis +

I really like the value here with the Billikens as a massive underdog against the well respected Rams. VCU comes in having won 8 straight and are simply way overvalued in this spot, as they are going to have a hard time getting up for this one with a couple of huge road games on deck against Rhode Island and Dayton, which will likely decide if they win the A-10 regular season title.

St Louis is a mere 4-10 in conference play, but are a strong 9-5 ATS. VCU is 0-3 ATS this season when listed as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points and 1-5 ATS this year after covering the spread in 2 of their last 3 games. Billikens are 6-0 ATS off a road loss and a perfect 3-0 ATS off back-to-back conferences losses by double-digits. Take St. Louis!

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Georgia Tech -

I like the value here with the Yellow Jackets at home against the Wolfpack. NC State is a program that's a mess right now. Their head coach has been fired but is finishing up the season with the team. NC State has lost 7 straight and really haven't been competitive. In their last 4 games they have lost by 9 at home to Notre Dame, 24 at home to UNC, 30 at Wake Forest and 24 at Florida State. Georgia Tech beat the Wolfpack 86-76 on the road back on 1/15 when NC State hadn't thrown in the towel. I could see NC State getting up for Saturday's home finale against Virginia, but not here on the road in a meaningless game.

The Wolfpack are a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 as an underdog, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 on the road and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. Take Georgia Tech!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Shocker on Clemson +

This line is going to make the public want to take the Hokies at home as a short favorite, as Virginia Tech is 13-1 at home this season and have covered 4 straight. Oddsmakers aren't stupid and by setting the line where they did, they are basically telling us that Clemson is the bet here. I completely agree.

The Tigers are so much better than their 4-10 record in the ACC would lead you to believe and have been playing well without the results of late. They are 1-3 in their last 4 with all 3 losses by 6 points or less. Clemson also has revenge on their mind here from a 81-82 loss at home to Va Tech on 1/22. Take Clemson!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Annihilator on South Carolina +

I really like the value here with the Gamecocks catching near double-digits on the road against the Gators. South Carolina already beat Florida at home 57-53 this season. I'm not buying that the change in venue is going to see that kind of a swing to where the Gators blow this thing wide open. I believe this line is simply inflated on Florida, who comes in having won 8 straight and are 6-2 ATS during this stretch. The Gamecocks on the other hand have lost 3 of 4 and failed to cover the spread in 5 straight. Another big factor here against the Gators is they have a huge game on deck at Kentucky this Saturday.

These Tuesday night games get a lot of attention and the Gators have struggled in this spot at home, going just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 at home on Tuesday night. Florida is also 0-11 ATS in their last 11 after a combined score of 115 or less in their last game and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 when revenging a same season loss. Take South Carolina!

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Virginia -

I like the Cavaliers to put away the Hurricanes in blowout fashion tonight. Virginia is a pissed off bunch after a rare 3-game losing streak. It started with them blowing a big lead on the road against in-state rival Virginia Tech. Then they had to play two elite teams in Duke and North Carolina in a span of just 4 days. The most recent was an embarrassing 24-point loss on the road to the Tar Heels.

Virginia is 3-1 ATS this season off a road loss and 8-3 ATS in this same spot over the last 3 years. Miami comes in having really played well at home in their last two games, but are just 1-3 ATS this season off back-to-back home wins, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 65 or less points in 2 straight games and 0-4 when playing their 3rd game in a week span. Take Virginia!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Iowa -

I like the value we are getting here with the Hawkeyes as a short home favorite against the Illini. Iowa will be out for revenge from an earlier loss at Illinois. The Hawkeyes are a completely different team at home compared to on the road. That's evident by their 5-1 record in the Big 10 at home, compared to just 1-6 record on the road (only win at Rutgers). It's a similar story for the Fighting Illini, who are just 1-5 on the road in Big 10 play with the only win coming at Northwestern in a game the Wildcats were minus one of their best players.

Illinois is 10-20 ATS in their last 30 as an underdog and 6-16 ATS in their last 22 off an upset loss as a home favorite in conference play. Illini are also just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 against a team with winning record at least 15 games into the season. Take Iowa!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +

I really like the value here with the Demon Deacons as a double-digit dog against the Blue Devils. Duke is playing better of late, but are in a prime letdown spot here off that huge win at Virginia earlier in the week. Not to mention the Blue Devils have three of their top players dealing with injuries. While they won't prevent them from playing, I think it takes away from the mental focus for Duke here.

It's a very similar spot to last week. Duke was off that big win over North Carolina and barely held on for a 64-62 win at home against Clemson as a 11-point favorite. Wake Forest only lost by 2-points at home to the Blue Devils. I don't expect them to pull off the upset, but I think this one goes down to the wire. Duke is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after covering the spread and the Demon Deacons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games off a loss by 10 points or more. Take Wake Forest!

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Valparaiso

I really like the value here with the Crusaders at basically a pick'em on the road against the Golden Grizzlies. This is a big revenge spot for Valparaiso, who were upset at home by Oakland 78-66 back in early January. Since that loss the Crusaders have gone 10-1 and are sitting at 11-2 in the Horizon. With a win here they can pretty much lock up the regular season title (Oakland is 2nd at 9-4).

Valparaiso came out flat in that first meeting with Oakland. They shot just 36.2% from the field, while allowing the Grizzlies to connect on 47% of their attempts. That's uncharacteristic for the Crusaders on both sides of the ball. Valpo is shooting 46% from the field in Horizon play, while limiting conference opponents to just 65 ppg on 38.1% shooting.

It's also worth noting that this is not the same Oakland team as the first meeting. The Grizzlies are without a key contributor in Stevie Clark. He was a big factor against the Crusaders, scoring 16 points with a team-high 5 assists. I believe his loss isn't getting enough respect here, due to Oakland coming in having won 4 straight, but note that all 4 of those wins came against the bottom 4 team in the conference. Take Valparaiso!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Connecticut -

I really like the Huskies to take care of business at home against the Tigers and win here comfortably. Connecticut might be just 12-12 overall, but they aren't playing like it right now. The Huskies have won 5 of their last 6 with the only loss coming on the road against an elite Cincinnati team. UConn has won 5 straight homes in conference play and will take on a Memphis squad that has been getting way to much respect of late, which is why they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6. Last time the Tigers played on the road they were embarrassed 57-72 at UCF, which is the same team that UConn just beat on the road in their last game.

Memphis is a mere 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games when listed as an underdog and just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. Huskies are 33-13 ATS in their last 46 after a win by 3 points or less, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 25 or less points in the 1st half of their last game and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 6.5 or less. Take UConn!

5* NCAAB West Coast Game of the Month on San Francisco +

Betting against Gonzaga this season hasn't been a profitable move, but I just think this spot has created too much value on San Francisco to pass up. The Dons have a winning record in the WCC and are one of the few teams to keep it respectable against Gonzaga this season, losing by just 15 points in the first meeting. Note that was with Gonzaga shooting a ridiculous 61% from the field.

The even bigger key here is that this is an ideal situation to fade the Bulldogs. Gonzaga just played their biggest game in quite some time last Saturday at St. Mary's, which most were calling their last chance at having their perfect record broken. The Bulldogs prevailed 74-64 and it's only human nature for them to have a letdown here. On the flip side of this, San Francisco is going to treat this like it's their Super Bowl. Dons did lose at home last time out and that's worth noting as they are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games off a home conference loss and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 off a home loss by 10 or more points. Take San Francisco!

4* NCAAB Situational Underdog No Brainer on Tulane +

This is all about the situation and going against SMU in a major flat spot. The Mustangs knocked off Cincinnati at home on Saturday in the biggest game of the season. The Bearcats had already knocked off SMU earlier this season and were undefeated in AAC play.Now the Mustangs and Cincinnati are sitting with just 1 loss each.

It's only human nature to suffer a letdown after a game like that, especially when the next opponent has lost 8 straight and are just 1-11 in conference play. I just don't see SMU being all the interested here, as they know all they have to do is show up and they win this one. Green Wave are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 after a double-digit loss at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a road underdog. Take Tulane!

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS Shocker on Indiana +

I really like the value here with the Hoosiers as a decent priced dog against the Gophers. It's been an ugly stretch here for Indiana, which is just 1-5 in their last 6. Injuries have played a big part of this, but the Hoosiers just recently got back leading scorer James Blakmon and I look for him to go off here against a Gophers defense that is allowing 74.8 ppg over their last 5.

Minnesota comes in having won 3 straight, but it's come against the likes of Illinois, Iowa and Rutgers. Prior to that the Gophers had lost 5 straight. I look for Indiana to be the more desperate team here and fully expect them to win outright, but I'll gladly take the points. Hoosiers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Take Indiana!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Miami (FL) -

I'm not expecting this one to be all that competitive. I know the Yellow Jackets are playing better than expected, but most of their success has come at home. Georgia Tech lost 3 straight and 4 of 6 on the road in the ACC by double-digits. That includes recent losses at both Clemson and Wake Forest by 12-points. Miami is better than both of those teams and are going to be locked in here after a loss at Louisville.

The Hurricanes are 11-2 at home on the season with the only two losses coming to elite teams in Notre Dame and Florida State. Yellow Jackets are a mere 2-7 on the road, where they are getting outscored by 12.0 ppg. Miami should be able to create plenty of separation here with their defense. The Hurricanes are allowing a mere 62.4 ppg at home and are taking on a Georgia Tech offense that averages only 64.2 ppg on the road. Take Miami!

5* NCAAB Big East Game of the Month on Providence -

I really like this spot for Providence at home against the Musketeers. Xavier lost point guard Edmond Summer to a season ending injury at the end of January and now are expected to be without Trevon Bluiett tonight against the Friars. That's the Musketeer's two best players not available. That's just too much to overcome on the road against a hungry Providence team that has been playing much better of late. While the Friars are just 4-4 in their last 8, they are 7-1 against the spread during this stretch. They also come in with a 12-3 record at home and fresh off an impressive 71-65 home win over Butler as 3-point dog.

I don't see Providence overlooking Xavier given the injury situation, as they will be out for revenge from an ugly 56-82 loss at Xavier back on 12/28. Note that Bluiett and Summer combined for 35 points 11 assists and 13 rebounds. Friars are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 when revenging a road loss. Take Providence!

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS Annihilator on Boise State +

I'm backing the Broncos as a short road dog against the Lobos tonight. This might seem like a mistake by the books, as New Mexico already went on the road and beat Boise State 81-70 back on 1/17. Nothing went right for the Broncos, who shot just 38% from the field, while allowing the Lobos to shoot 50% from the field and behind the 3-point line. That was an uncharacteristic performance from Boise State, who is only allowing opponents to shoot 41.8% from the field on the season. 

A big difference this time around is New Mexico will be minus one of their best players in Tim Williams, who is averaging 17.9 ppg and 7.0 rpg. It's a huge loss the only other player averaging more than 7 ppg is Elijah Brown (18.8 ppg). Boise is going to consistently double-team Brown and force these other guys beat him. Note that Williams had a game-high 19 points in the Lobos win over the Broncos earlier this season.

Broncos are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when revenging a loss as a home favorite, 14-4 ATS in their last 18  with a line of +3 to -3 and 24-12 in their last 36 road games. Take Boise State!

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS No Brainer on Washington St +

I like the value here with the Cougars as double-digit road dog. Washington State comes in having lost 3 straight and I believe it's playing into this line. The thing is, the Cougars last 3 games have been back-to-back at home against UCLA and USC, followed by a road game at Utah. Those are 3 of the better teams in the Pac-12 and Washington State was competitive in thos games. I know the Cougars aren't a great team, but they have won on the road at both Washington and Arizona State.

Colorado is a solid team and come in having won 4 of 5, but the schedule has been favorable. What is getting overlooked here is that the Cougars already beat Colorado at home 91-89 back on 1/21 as a 7-point dog. I'm not saying they win on the road, but I think there's a good chance this game is close until the end and Washington State covers. Colorado is just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 off a win and the Cougars are 22-10 ATS after 3 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47% or better. Take Washington State!

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Northern Iowa +1.5

I really like the value here with the Panthers at basically a pick'em on the road against Missouri State. UNI is playing their best basketball of the season right now. After starting out 0-5 in conference play, the Panthers have won 7 of 8. They will be out for revenge here from a 4-point loss at home to the Bears back in UNI's dreadful start to the MVC. Note that Missouri State only won by 4 points, despite jumping out to a 32-8 lead in the 1st half, which included a 19-0 run.

The Bears win over UNI came during a 6-1 stretch. This time they enter having lost 4 of their last 5 and fresh off a ugly 18-point loss at Wichita State. Missouri State is only 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games after going over the total in their previous game and 4-12 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in a day stretch. Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after allowing 65 or less points in 5 straight games. Take UNI! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on Michigan St -

I really like the value her with the Spartans at home, as Michigan State is going to be locked in after getting annihilated in their last game on the road against Michigan. I know the Spartans aren't on the same level as they have been in previous years, but this is still a well-coached team that isn't going to lay down. I expect one of Michigan State's best game to take place today.

It helps that they are catching the Hawkeyes in a terrible spot. Iowa has had their road woes as it is in Big Ten play and now have to play their 2nd straight on the road after a crushing double-overtime loss at Minnesota last time out. With just two days between games, I just don't think that's enough time for the Hawkeyes to recover. Iowa is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games after a road game where both teams scored 75 or more points and the Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss by more than 20 points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite. Take Michigan State!

5* Big Ten Game of the Month on Maryland -

This might seem like a big number for the Terrapins to be laying at home against an Ohio State team that has won 2 straight, but I really like this spot for Maryland and for them to win here in a blowout. We know we are going to get a max effort here from the Terrapins, as they come in off a back-to-back losses.

The bigger key here is that Ohio State will be without the services of point guard JaQuan Lyle. That's a big time loss as Lyle is 3rd in scoring at 11.4 ppg and leads the team with a solid 5.0 apg. Losing a point guard is tough to overcome, especially on the road. I think it's even more of a problem for a team like the Buckeyes who aren't a great offensive team to start with.

Ohio State is a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games on Saturday and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after winning 2 of their last 3 games. Terrapins are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games off an upset loss as a favorite. Take Maryland!

4* NCAAB Afternoon ATS Heavy Hitter on Illinois -

I really like the value here with the Fighting Illini as a relatively short home favorite against the Nittany Lions. This is a prime spot for Illinois to get back on track at home, where they are a very respectable 10-4 this season. We also catch the Illini fresh off a upset win at Northwestern. Penn State is also off a win, but it was a big one, as they upset Maryland on their home floor. I believe that puts the Nittany Lions in a prime letdown spot with this game being on the road. Penn State is just 4-7 away from home with their only road win coming against bottom feeder Rutgers.

The Fighting Illini are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a favorite of 6.5 or less. Take Illinois!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Nebraska +

I really like the value here with the Cornhuskers catching a decent amount of points at home against the Badgers. It's not been the season Nebraska was hoping for in Big Ten play, but this team has found a way to compete with some of the top teams in the conference. The Cornhuskers have road wins at both Indiana and Maryland, as well as a win at home against Purdue. I don't know that they can knock off the Badgers, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did.

Either way I'm expecting an all out effort here from Nebraska at home against a Top 10 team and wouldn't be shocked if Wisconsin struggled to match that intensity. Badgers have won 7 straight, but are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6. Cornhuskers are 39-18 ATS in their last 57 home games off 2 straight conference losses and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 as a home dog of 7 to 12.5 points. Take Nebraska!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on West Virginia -

This might seem like a big number for the Mountaineers to be laying on the road, but I think this is a prime spot for West Virginia to lay it on the Sooners. The Mountaineers are going to be 100% locked in for this game. Not only are they looking to bounce back from a 75-82 home loss to Oklahoma State, but they also want revenge against the Sooners, who beat them at home 89-87 back on 1/18. It just so happens that was the last win for Oklahoma, who has dropped 5 straight. Sooners are a great home team, just 5-6 on the season and recently lost by 34 at home to Florida.

Oklahoma is a mere 8-20 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing a good team that's won between 60% to 80% of their games. They are also a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team that's forcing 18 or more turnovers after 15+ games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against good passing teams that are averaging 16 or more assists/game. Take West Virginia!

5* NCAAB Missouri Valley Game of the Month on Southern Illinois +

I really like the value here with the Salukis on the road against the Panthers. UNI has won 6 of their last 7, but most of those have come against the bottom half of the Missouri Valley. They do have a 58-57 win at Southern Illinois during this stretch, but I think that only adds to the value here with the Salukis in a big time revenge spot. Note that Southern Illinois only lost by 1-point and shot a mere 38.2% from the field, while UNI hit an uncharacteristic 47% (only shoot 40.7% on the season).

UNI failed to cover in their last game and are a mere 3-10 ATS in their last 13 after a game where they failed to cover the number and only 2-11 ATS in their last 13 against a team with a winning record. Salukis are also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of 2 straight games.Take Southern Illinois!

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Vanderbilt +

The Commodores are showing some great value here as a short road dog against the Razorbacks. Arkansas comes in with the better record, but I just don't think they are all that great. I see two very evenly matched teams with a huge motivational edge to Vanderbilt, who hasn't forgot about a heartbreaking 70-71 loss at home to the Razorbacks on 1/24. Since that win Arkansas has lost by 28 at Oklahoma State and were just upset by SEC bottom feeder Missouri.

Vanderbilt has really played well on the road, especially in the SEC. Their last two on the highway resulted in big time wins at Florida and Texas A&M. The Commodores are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a wining home record. Take Vanderbilt!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +

The Demon Deacons are showing some great value here as a pretty good sized dog against the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame has lost 4 straight and 5 of 6 overall. I look for their struggles to continue here against a talented Wake Forest team that is playing with confidence off back-to-back wins. The Deacons are also a solid 5-2 ATS in their last 7.

Notre Dame held Georgia Tech to 69 points in their last game, but had allowed 79 or more in each of their previous 7. Wake Forest comes in averaging 81.6 ppg on the season and aren't far off at 80.2 ppg in conference play. The Deacons ability to score is going to make it hard for the Irish to turn this into a blowout and leaves open the possibility of an outright upset. Note that the Demon Deacons are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams outscoring opponents by 8 or more points/game at least 15 games into the season and Notre Dame is only 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games with a high total of 150 to 159.5. Take Wake Forest!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma State +

I like the value here with the Cowboys catching double-digits on the road against the Mountaineers. These two teams played in Oklahoma State to open up Big 12 play and West Virginia embarrassed the Cowboys 92-75. I know that loss was aback on 12/30, but I can assure you Oklahoma State hasn't forgot about it and will be out for revenge here. The Cowboys come in having won 4 straight and have really been competitive in every Big 12 game since that loss to West Virginia.

The Mountaineers won't find it as easy to get motivated for Oklahoma State, given how easily they beat them on the road, plus they have to be feeling pretty good about themselves off 3 straight wins, including a 85-72 blowout win at ISU. I don't know that the Cowboys pull off the upset, but I expect this one to be a lot closer than the oddsmakers are suggesting. Take Oklahoma State!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Shocker on UCF -

I really like the value here with the Knights as a short home favorite against the Tigers. UCF is way undervalued right now, due to having lost 4 straight. The thing is, three of those came on the road and the other was a mere 5-point loss at home to SMU. The Tigers are a quality team, but not on the same level as SMU. Adding extra incentive here is the fact that UCF will be out for revenge from a 65-70 loss at Memphis just a few weeks back.

It's also worth noting that the Knights are a rock solid 10-2 at home this season and are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games on Saturday. Memphis on the other hand is 7-15 ATS in their last 22 as a dog of 6.5 or less points and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take UCF!

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS Annihilator on Stanford -

I really like the value here with the Cardinal laying a short number at home against the Buffaloes. I see this as a great spot to fade Colorado, who comes in off a surprising 74-65 win at home over Oregon as a 6.5-point dog. The thing is that wasn't a great spot for the Ducks, who had just played in the thin air of Utah and had to turn around and face a hungry Buffaloes squad. Colorado is also not nearly the same team on the road, where they are just 3-7 on the season.

Stanford isn't a top notch team by any means, but they are every bit as good as the Buffaloes and are a strong 7-3 at home. It's also worth pointing out that 5 of their 6 conference losses have come @ Oregon, @ Cal, @UCLA, @ USC and at home to Arizona. Colorado is 1-7 ATS off a home win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off 2 or more wins. Take Stanford!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Oregon State +

I really like the value here on Oregon State as a massive home dog against Arizona. No secret here that the Wildcats are the better team, but this is all about the situation. The Beavers are going to give us a max effort at home against a Top 5 team. On the flip side of this, is extremely hard for Arizona to get up for this game, especially with a big road game at Oregon on deck. Arizona is 9-0 in the Pac-12 and the Ducks are right behind at 8-1. It's also the only regular season meeting, which only magnifies the game.

I think we get a not so focused Wildcats team and the Beavers do enough here to keep this competitive. Note that Oregon State has played well at home against some quality teams in the Pac-12. They lost by just 7 at home to USC, by only 13 at home to UCLA and by 11 to Cal. Arizona is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. Take Oregon State! 

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS No Brainer on USC -

I like the value here with the Trojans laying a short number here on the road against the Huskies. USC is 18-4 and fresh off an impressive 84-76 win over UCLA. The big key here is they have had time to let that win sink in, as it came last Wednesday. I look for the Trojans to carry over that momentum here against a Washington team that I think is overvalued because of star freshman Markelle Fultz, who many think will be the No. 1 overall pick. It's very similar to last year with LSU and Ben Simmons.

One NBA prospect doesn't make a team. Washington is just 9-13 overall and 2-7 in Pac-12 play. Not to mention the two conference wins are against Oregon State and Colorado. The Beavers haven't won a Pac-12 game to this point and the Buffs are just 2-7. Huskies are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 off a road cover where they lost the game outright as an underdog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off 2 or more consecutive road losses. Take USC!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Drake +

I like the value here with the Bulldogs as a massive home dog against Wichita State. Drake isn't a great team, but have been playing much better of late. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 with the only two non-covers coming against in-state rival Northern Iowa. Drake just recently only lost by 14-points at Illinois State, who sits on top the MVC at 10-0. Speaking of the Redbirds, they are a key part to why I'm going against the Shockers.

Next up for Wichita State is a massive home game against Illinois State. The Shockers lost 62-76 on the road to the Redbirds, which is their only conference loss. If they want to win the MVC, they have to win that next game at home against Illinois State. That's going to make it that much harder for Wichita State to take this game seriously, especially given they already beat the Bulldogs by 25 at home. I think the Shockers come out flat an allow the Bulldogs to hang around and get the cover. Take Drake!

4* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on NC State +

I really like the value here with the Wolfpack at basically a pick'em at home against Syracuse. On one side we have a NC State team that's going to be motivated to bounce back from an ugly 60-85 loss at No. 13 Louisville. On the other side, we have an Orange team primed for a letdown after a 82-72 win at home over then No. 6 Florida State. The other big key here is the home/away splits of these two teams. Syracuse is 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS on the road, while the Wolfpack are 11-2 at home.

Another thing here is that I think this is a great matchup for NC State. Syracuse's zone can be challenging for teams that don't have great guard play to penetrate and get the Orange out of position. The Wolfpack have one of the elite point guards in the country in Dennis Smith Jr., who is averaging 19.0 ppg and 6.5 apg. Take NC State!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Auburn Pick'em

I like the value here with the Tigers at a pick'em at home against the Volunteers. This line is low due to the fact that Tennessee comes in off 3 straight impressive wins. They defeated Miss State 91-74, then had the huge upset over Kentucky 82-80 as a 10.5-point dog and then this past Saturday defeated K-State 70-58 at home. The key is all 3 of those games came at home and I believe the Volunteers are now primed for a big time letdown on the road, where they are just 4-6 on the season and most recently lost by 11 at Ole Miss.

Auburn is a talented young team that is also playing well right now. The Tigers have won 3 of their last 4 and are 4-2 ATS in their last 6. Last time out they went on the road and beat TCU 88-80 as a 10-point dog. Auburn is also a strong 8-2 at home and are going to be excited about this one given the embarrassing 59-97 loss to the Volunteers in last year's SEC Tournament. Tennessee is just 10-26 ATS in their last 36 as a favorite and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 off an upset win as an underdog. Take Auburn!

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Iowa State +

I really like the value here with the Cyclones catching points at home in a primetime matchup against No. 7 West Virginia in a nationally televised game on ESPN2. Iowa State is one of the more difficult places to play in the country, especially in this type of an environment with a Top 10 team coming to down.

It's been an up and down season for the Cyclones, who just lost at Vanderbilt. ISU is 8-2 at home and the Mountaineers are just 5-3 on the road despite their 17-4 overall record. West Virginia also comes in off a 81-77 win over Texas A&M as a massive 15-point favorite and are now just 1-4 ATS in their last 5. This team has already lost at Texas Tech and Kansas State in Big 12 play and were lucky to escape with a 74-72 win at Texas. Cyclones are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs the Big 12 and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog. Take Iowa State!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +

I like the value here with the Eagles catching a decent number at home against the Demon Deacons. Boston College has been undervalued for quite some time and it's resulted in them going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. They continued to be undervalued because of the fact that they have lost 5 straight and are 1-7 in their last 8 overall. The thing is, during this stretch, 5 of the losses are on the road and two were at home against elite teams in UNC and Virginia.

Wake Forest is a quality team, but certainly are not elite and I think they are getting way to much respect here, especially given the Demon Deacons have lost their last two and are coming off a crushing 83-85 loss at home to Duke. On top of that, the Eagles have revenge on their mind from a 66-79 loss at Wake Forest earlier this season. Eagles are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when revenging a loss. Take Boston College!

4* Duke/Notre Dame NCAAB ATS Annihilator on Notre Dame -

I like the value here with the Fighting Irish at basically a pick'em at home against the Blue Devils. Duke was able to win on the road at Wake Forest, but by a final of just 85-83. Now the Blue Devils have to turn around and go to Notre Dame on just 1-day of rest and face a pissed off Irish team that has lost two straight. This Irish team has not been intimidated by Duke, as they have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Given how much respect Duke gets and how the public loves to bet them, these small lines are typically ones where the books are trying to entice the public to back the Blue Devils. In fact, Duke is 0-7 ATS over the last 2 seasons in games with a line of +3 to -3. Take Notre Dame!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Northwestern -

I like the Wildcats to win and cover at home over Indiana tonight. Northwestern is playing lights out at the moment, as they come in having won 5 straight and are now 6-2 in Big Ten play. There's no letdown for this team, as they are trying to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. I expect another big time effort here at home against Indiana, who gets a lot of respect for being a great team, but is just 14-7 with a miserable 2-5 record away from home. Northwestern on the other hand is 17-4 and has a 11-1 record on their home floor, where they our outscoring teams 79.1 to 62.4.

Wildcats are 22-11 ATS in their last 33 off a home win, 9-2 ATS this season when listed as a favorite and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off a SU win. Take Northwestern!

5* NCAAB Vegas No Limit Top Play on Michigan State -

I'm backing the Spartans as a short home favorite against in-state rival Michigan. This clearly isn't the same caliber of Michigan State team as years past, but it's still a Tom Izzo coached squad and they always keep improving as the season goes along. After a disappointing 73-84 home loss to Purdue, which was their 3rd in a row, we are going to get a max effort here from the Spartans. Michigan is going to come to play given the rivalry, but I don't trust them on the road. The Wolverines are just 2-5 away from home on the season, while Michigan State is 9-2 at home.

Michigan is also just 2-9 aTS in their last 11 road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week and an 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after 2 or more conference wins. Spartans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home game after losing 4 of their last 5. Take Michigan State!

4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT on Colorado +

I'm going to jump on the points with the Buffaloes at home against the Ducks. I know Oregon is the better team and coming off an impressive win at Utah, but I just think the books are begging for you to take the Ducks here. Colorado defeated Oregon State in their last game, but had lost 7 straight prior to that. Needless to say this isn't a team the public will trust in this spot.

The thing is, we know we are going to get a max effort from the Buffaloes here against Oregon. On the flip side of this, the Ducks could struggle to match that intensity. That's because they are playing their second road game in just 3 days and both road games are in the thin air of Utah and Colorado. Take the Buffaloes!

4* NCAAB Big Ten Game of the Week on Iowa -

The Hawkeyes have been an up and down team, as you would expect given all the freshman they are playing. Iowa has hit a minor bump of late with 3 straight losses and I think it has them primed for a big time performance at home, where they are a completely different team. Ohio State has won 3 of their last 4, but this isn't an elite team by any means and are vulnerable on the road.

In fact, the Buckeyes are a mere 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games on Saturday. Ohio State is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. Hawkeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. Take Iowa!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Minnesota -

I'm backing the Golden Gophers at home against the Terrapins. Some might wonder why Minnesota is this big of a favorite against a Maryland team that is 18-2 overall and 6-1 in the conference, especially with the Gophers coming in having lost 4 straight and just 3-5 in the Big 10. The thing is, Maryland isn't quite as good as their record would lead on, as they have been very fortunate in close games. Minnesota on the other hand is much better than their recent skid would suggest and this has the feeling of a must-win game for the Gophers at home. I just don't see Maryland being able to match that intensity.

Terrapins are just 12-25 ATS in their last 37 road games after covering as a double-digit favorite and 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games after covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. Take Minnesota!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Providence +

I think we are getting some great value here with the Friars catching a big number on the road against the Golden Eagles. Marquette is ripe for a letdown after their improbable 74-72 win at home over No. 1 Villanova, which they erased a 17-point deficit. Providence on the other hand is primed for a big time effort here, as they look to avoid a 3rd straight loss and bounce back from a disappointing home loss to St. John's. I think the Friars keep this close throughout and wouldn't be shocked if they pulled of the upset.

Marquette is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite of 7-12.5 points. Friars are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 as a road dog and 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take Providence!

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Month on Kansas State +

I really like the value here with the Wildcats getting points against the Volunteers. Tennessee is getting a lot of love here after their shocking 82-80 win at home over Kentucky as a 10.5-point dog. For whatever reason the Vols have had Kentucky's number of late. The thing is, this is still a mediocre team and I look for them to suffer a letdown here against K-State.

The Wildcats are in good shape to make the NCAA Tournament, but are far from a lock and could really use this road win to boost that resume. I don't think that will be a problem for K-State, who has played very well on the road against some good teams and hungry for a win off a loss to ISU. Volunteers are 2-14 ATS in their last 14 off an upset win as an underdog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 when off an upset win against a conference opponent. Tennessee is also 6-21 ATS in their last 27 as a home favorite or pick and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 vs the Big 12. Take Kansas State!

5* NCAAB Pac-12 Game of the Month on Utah -

I really like the value here with the Utes laying a short number at home against the Ducks. Oregon comes in ranked No. 10 and have won 16 straight, so the public is going to be all over them against an unranked Utah team. That's even with the Ducks best player in Dillon Brooks questionable to play. This Utah team has been playing exceptional basketball and I firmly believe they are one of the 15 best teams in the country right now. They are 7-2 in their last 9 with their two losses being a 10-point defeat at Arizona and 1-point loss at home to UCLA. Oregon is due for a bad game and Utah is not an easy place to play. I think the Utes take control of this game and win here going away.

Utah is 15-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons in conference home games, 5-0 in their last 5 as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less, 11-2 in their last 13 home games after 2 straight wins by 20 or more points and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games after a game where they made 50% or more of their 3-point shots. Take Utah!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Nebraska +

I really like the value here with the Cornhuskers as a near double-digit dog against the Wildcats. Nebraska comes in having lost 4 straight, but have really given away their last two. The Cornhuskers could very easily be 5-2 in the Big 10 instead of 3-4. Keep in mind this is a team that has beat the likes of Maryland and Indiana on the road. Northwestern did win 74-66 at Nebraska back on 1/8, but that came was very competitive throughout. It wouldn't surprise me at all for the Cornhuskers to return the favor and come away with a win. Northwestern is primed for a letdown, having already beat Nebraska and the fact that they have won 4 straight and fresh off a huge win at Ohio State with a much bigger home game on deck against Indiana.

Cornhuskers are 25-14 under Miles when they come into a game having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games and 5-0 in their last 5 as a road underdog. Take Nebraska!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +

I really like the value here with the Red Raiders as a near double-digit dog on the road against Baylor. The Bears come in at 18-1 and ranked No. 5 in the country. While Baylor is a talent team, I think they are bit overvalued right now. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for the Bears off 3 straight wins by 9 or more with a big 2-game road trip coming up, where they go out of conference to take on Ole Miss Saturday and then quickly turn around and play at Kansas.

Texas Tech on the other hand is a team that I believe is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder tonight. The Red Raiders were embarrassed in their last game at home, losing 64-83 to Oklahoma State, who at the time had yet to win a Big 12 game. This Tech team is certainly capable of putting up a fight here and let's not forget they won 84-66 at Baylor as a 10.5-point dog last year. The Bears are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games off a conference win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing 2 straight games as a favorite. Take Texas Tech!

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS Shocker on UCF +

I like the value here with the Knights catching points at home against the Mustangs. SMU is 17-4 and the more recognized program, but this UCF team is more than capable of beating them at home. The Knights are just 1-game back in the loss column in the American Athletic and are 10-1 at home this season. SMU is also not nearly as efficient on the road as they are at home. The Mustangs average 73.2 ppg, but are scoring just 67.7 ppg on the road. They allow a mere 59.4 ppg on the season, but are giving up 65.0 ppg on the road. UCF is scoring 72.0 ppg and allowing just 55.8 ppg at home.

Great system back the Knights in this one as well. Home underdogs off a conference road loss against an opponent off a home win where they scored 85 or more points are 67-34 (66.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take UCF!

5* NCAAB Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa State -

I really like the value here with the Cyclones as a short home favorite against the Wildcats. Iowa State is tough to beat on their home court and after falling to Kansas in their last home game, I expect a huge effort here by the Cyclones. Iowa State is 7-2 at home on the season and are 51-20 ATS in their last 71 at home as a favorite of 6 or less. They are also 30-16 ATS in their last 46 home games off a conference win.

Kansas State is getting a lot of respect here off their big win at home over West Virginia, but I actually think that has them primed for a letdown here on the road. The Wildcats are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a game where they covered the spread. Take Iowa State!

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Pittsburgh +

I like the value here with the Panthers catching a decent number here at home against the Cardinals. Pittsburgh will be out for revenge in this one, as they lost at Louisville earlier this year in a game where they nearly had a remarkable comeback. The Panthers were down 21 at the half and were within a possession of tying the game. The big turnaround came from Pitt switching to a 1-3-1 zone. I expect to see a lot of that tonight and this time the catch Louisville without starting point guard Quentin Snider.

This also has the feeling of a must-win game for Pittsburgh, who has lost 4 straight come in. Big thing to keep in mind, is 3 of those came on the road and the Panthers are 9-2 at home. Most will be quick to back Louisville off a loss, but I think that game against FSU took a lot out of this team and I think the Panthers have an excellent shot at winning this game outright. Take Pittsburgh!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Auburn +

I like the value here with the Tigers as a near double-digit road dog against the Gamecocks. Auburn comes in having won 3 of their last 4 with the only loss come at Kentucky. Last time out they destroyed Alabama by 20-points at home. This Tigers team is young and talented and starting to figure it out.

I believe they are catching South Carolina at the right time. The Gamecocks just had their 5-game winning streak snapped in a 69-85 loss at Kentucky. SC could also be missing a key piece, as PJ Dozier is questionable after sitting out the previous game with bask spasms. For him to not play against Kentucky, makes me think it's a little more serious and even if he does suit up, he won't be 100%.

Gamecocks are just 18-34 ATS in their last 52 home games off a loss by 10 or more, while the Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Auburn!

4* NCAAB Small Conference ATS Annihilator on Quinnipiac +

I like the value here with the Bobcats catching double-digits against the Gaels. Iona has the better overall record, but the two teams are both sitting at 5-4 in the MAAC. Not to mention Quinnipiac just beat the Gaels at home 97-91. Iona might get their revenge here, but I'm expecting a close game throughout and for the Bobcats to keep it well within the number here.

There's also a strong system in play here. Road underdogs off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less against an opponent off a game where they scored 85 or more points are 51-25 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Iona is also just 7-18 ATS in their last 25 when revenging a loss as a road favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after 2 or more wins. Take Quinnipiac!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on VCU -

I think we are getting some decent value here with VCU at laying less than double-digits at home against La Salle. We should get a max effort from the Rams after back-to-back losses to Davidson and Fordham. It's not like they played bad in either game, losing by 6 at Davidson and 2 at Fordham. Now they return home where they are 8-1 on the season and last time they played at home they annihilated George Washington 85-55.

VCU comes in averaging 80.4 ppg at home, while only giving up 62.8 ppg at home. While La Salle comes in averaging 82.3 ppg, I don't see them hitting that mark against a stingy and motiveated VCU defense. On the flip side of this, the Rams should score at will here, as La Salle is giving up 78.7 ppg on the season and a staggering 84.9 ppg on the road. Rams are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home games against a team with a losing road record and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 against the A-10. Take VCU!

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Minnesota +

I think we are getting some big time value here with the Gophers catching points at home against the Badgers. Wisconsin is an elite team, but winning on the road in the Big 10 is no easy task, especially against a pissed off an highly motivated Minnesota team that comes in off back-to-back road losses. While the Gophers are just 3-3 in the Big Ten, two of those losses have come by a combined 3-points and they have played 4 of their 6 conference games on the road. I expect an all out effort here from Minnesota and I think it will be tough for Wisconsin to match that intensity.

One of the Badgers strengths is rebounding and the Gophers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against teams who are outrebounding opponents by 7 or more rebounds/game. They are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers/game and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 when facing an elite team that has won 80% or more of their games. Take Minnesota!

5* NCAAB No Limit ACC Game of the Week on Florida State -

I really like the value here with the Seminoles laying just 3-points at home against the Cardinals. Florida State has failed to cover their last two, but it's not like they haven't played well. Last time out they won 83-80 at home over a very good Notre Dame team as a 5.5-point favorite. On the flip side, Louisville is getting all kind of love, as they have won 4 straight and gone 3-1 ATS during the stretch.

The big key here is this is the first real test for the Cardinals away from home since they played at Notre Dame, which was their last loss (70-77). FSU has already beat the likes of Duke, Virginia Tech and Florida at home and I just don't think the majority of people realize just how good this team is. Seminoles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games off a win and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their previous game at home. Take Florida State!

4* NCAAB Early Bird Undervalued Underdog on Penn St +

I really like the value here with the Nittany Lions as a double-digit dog against the Boilermakers. Penn State is a feisty team that really gets after you defensively and is very patient on the offensive end. We have already see them knock off the likes of Michigan State and Minnesota, with close 3-point losses to both Michigan and Indiana. I don't think they can win here, but I expect this one to be a lot closer than the books are calling for. I see an inflated line with Purdue off that big blowout 91-68 win at home over Illinois.

Great system in play backing the Nittany Lions. Road underdogs of 10 or more points off a conference home loss against an opponent off a home win by 10 or more are 92-47 (66%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Penn State!

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS Shocker on Clemson +

I like the value here with the Tigers as a decent priced road dog against the Cardinals. Clemson comes in way undervalued due to having lost 4 straight. The thing is this Tigers team is more talented than their 4-game losing streak would lead on and we can expect a max effort here against Louisville.

As for the Cardinals, they have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after winning three straight. The most recent being a 9-point win at home against Duke. Keep in mind, prior to that big game against the Blue Devils, they only beat Pitt at home by 5-points. I believe we see a similar type of letdown here.

Tigers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 as an underdog and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. Take Clemson!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Connecticut +

I like the value here with the Huskies catching a big number on the road against the Mustangs. UConn hasn't been as good as people expected, but have started to turn the corner of late, winning 2 of their last 3 and covering all 3. Last time out they lost by just 3-points as a 7.5-point dog at Georgetown and I look for them to take this one right down to the wire against SMU.

The Mustangs are getting a lot of love due to their perfect 11-0 record and home and fresh off a 16-point win at Tulane. I think SMU has some trouble here getting up for UConn and turning this into a blowout. The Huskies are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 as a dog of 7 to 12.5 points and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 following a cover in their last game. Take UConn!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Nebraska -

I really like the value here with the Cornhuskers laying a short number at home against the Buckeyes. Nebraska got off to that surprising 3-0 start in Big Ten play, which included wins at Indiana and Maryland. However, they have since lost 2 straight and are once again not getting the respect they deserve. This is a talented team and one of the best coached teams in the league and are going to lay it all the line in this one.

Ohio State is a middle of the pack team in the Big 10 and are getting way to much respect here off a 72-67 win at home over Michigan State. Prior to that they had started out 0-4 in Big Ten play, which included 3 losses on the road. The Buckeyes have had all kind of struggles away from home, as they are just 1-5 in road games this season.

Ohio State is 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games against a team with a winning home record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a road dog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a win. Nebraska is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite of 6.5 or less and 26-12 in their last 38 when listed as a home favorite of 3 points or less. Take Nebraska!

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Wake Forest +

I really like the value here with the Demon Deacons as a short home dog against the Hurricanes. Wake Forest isn't an elite team, but are a much tougher out at home than they are on the road. The Demon Deacons are 6-2 at home compared to 4-5 on the road and one of those home losses was a hard fought 87-93 loss to North Carolina. That was actually their last game, which came last Wednesday. Wake has had a full 7 days to prepare for this one and I expect an all out effort.

I don't know that the Hurricanes will be able to match the intensity of the Demon Deacons. Miami comes in off a big 72-46 blowout win on the road over Wake Forest, which was a special win, as Jim Larranaga got his 600th win. Now they have to play their 2nd straight on the road with just 3 days of rest and will have a hard time not looking ahead to Saturday's huge showdown at Duke.

Miami is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after covering 2 of their last 3 and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games when they come in having won 8 or more of their last 10. Hurricanes are also 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against teams who attempts 21 or more 3 point shots per game. Take Wake Forest!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma +

I think there's some big time value here with the Sooners as a massive road dog against the Mountaineers. Oklahoma is clearly down from last year, but are still a talented team that can hang with the Big 12 elite. They come in playing with a lot of confidence after a 84-75 home win over Texas Tech, but are still way undervalued due to the fact that they had lost their previous 7.

I expect a big time effort here from the Sooners, while this could prove to be a tough spot for West Virginia. The Mountaineers are feeling good about themselves after winning 3 straight, but could easily look past Oklahoma with a big road game at Kansas State on Saturday and even bigger game Tuesday at home against Kansas.

Road dogs of 10 or more that have allowed 75 or more in 3 straight games and off a win of 6 points or less are a very strong 148-94 (61%) ATS since 1997. Sooners are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 as a dog. Take Oklahoma!

5* NCAAB Mountain West Game of the Month on Boise State -

I think the books have made a big mistake here making the Broncos a relatively short home favorite against the Lobos. This is a prime bounce back spot for Boise State at home, as they just had their 7-game winning streak snapped in a poor showing on the road against Fresno State. Now the Broncos return home, where they are a perfect 7-0 on the season and outscoring opponents on their home floor by an average of 78.7 to 60.6.

As for New Mexico, they are just 3-6 on the road this season and despite a win at Colorado State last time out are not playing well of late. The Lobos are just 1-3 in their last 4 and that includes home losses to both Nevada and UNLV as favorites. New Mexico is giving up 77.4 ppg on the road this season and I just don't see them being able to keep pace here, as I have Boise State winning by double-digits.

Broncos are red-hot from long-distance and are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more of their 3-point attempts. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite of 6.5 or less. Take Boise State!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Texas A&M -

I really like the value here with the Aggies laying a short number at home against the Razorbacks. Texas A&M is a much better team than their 1-4 start in SEC play would suggest and a big part of the slow start is they have played 3 of their first 5 on the road. I see this is a do or die situation for the Aggies at home against a Arkansas team that has also struggled early on in SEC play. I expect an all out effort here from Texas A&M. As for Arkansas, this isn't a great spot for them, as they come in off a comfortable 19-points win at home over Missouri, but that's nothing to get excited about (favored by 14).

The Razorbacks are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as an underdog, 10-28 ATS in their last 38 road games after a combined score of 165 or more points and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 after a game where they shot 55% or better from the field. Aggies are 66-45 ATS in their last 111 home games off a SU loss and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Take Texas A&M!

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on DePaul +

I like the value here with DePaul catching a big number against a St. John's team that I think is right on the same level as the Blue Demons. DePaul did lose at home 73-79 to St. John's a couple weeks ago, but that could have went either way. I think it gives the Blue Demons an edge here playing with revenge. St. John's has lost 4 straight since that win at DePaul and don't have a great home court edge. Keep in mind this is a team that lost by 16 at home to Penn State as a 3.5-point favorite and by 7 to Delaware State as a 22.5-points favorite. 

St. John's is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after losing 4 of 5 and 6-18 ATS in their last 24 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. We also got a big time system in play, backing the Blue Demons. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, revenging a home loss against an opponent off a road loss by 20 or more are 56-22 (72%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take DePaul!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Iowa +

I really like the value here with the Hawkeyes catching a decent number against the Wildcats. This Iowa team has been playing really well of late, as they are 8-2 in their last 10 and fresh off a big 83-78 win at home over Purdue. Northwestern is a quality team, but are just 3-2 in the Big 10 and have lost at home to the likes of Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite. Not only can Iowa keep this close enough to cover, but they can win this game outright. 

Great system in play back a play on the Hawkeyes. Road underdogs who are scoring 76 or more ppg against a solid defensive team that's allowing 63-67 ppg are 24-6 (80%) against the spread since 1997 when they are off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. Take Iowa! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Ole Miss +

I really like the value we are catching with the Rebels as a double-digit road dog against the Gamecocks. South Carolina has to be feeling pretty good about themselves after wining 3 straight, which includes road wins at Georgia and Tennessee. I believe it has them in store for a big letdown performance at home against an average Ole Miss team, especially given they have two big games on deck to look forward to in a home game against Florida on 1/18 and road game at Kentucky on 1/21.

Ole Miss is just 1-3 in SEC play, but are 2-2 ATS with both covers coming on the road, as they lost by just 7 at Florida as 13 points dog and won outright at Auburn as a 2-point dog. Overall the Rebels are 6-3 ATS in their last 9, so the value has clearly been with Ole Miss of late. This is a huge bounce back spot for the Rebels, who just lost at home by 22 to Georgia. Not only does that loss give Ole Miss an edge here, but it will make it that much harder for the Gamecocks to take them seriously.

South Carolina is just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games after covering 3 of their last 4, while the Rebels are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 off a loss and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 off a loss by 20 or more and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after a loss by 10 or more as a home favorite. Take Ole Miss!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Shocker on USF +

I really like the value we are getting here with the Bulls as a massive underdog on the road against the Tigers. USF is getting zero respect right now, as they come in having lost 4 straight, while Memphis is overvalued after going 3-1 SU and ATS in their last 4 games. I just don't see the Tigers being locked in for this one and their confidence has to be a bit rattled after losing 71-81 at Tulsa as a 4.5-point favorite.

On the flip side, the Bulls are going to come out highly motivated for a shot at taking down Memphis and while the wins aren't coming, they only have one loss all season by more than 17 points and that was a 19 point loss at SMU where they covered as a 22-point dog. I'm not expecting USF to threaten to win this game, but they should be able to keep it within striking distance and cover this big number.

Memphis is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, while the Bulls are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after 2 or more consecutive losses and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Take South Florida!

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Utah -

I've been on this Utah team in each of their last two games, which they covered as a 11-point dog at Arizona (56-66) and 3-point favorite at Arizona St (88-82). I got no problem backing them again at home against USC as a short favorite. This Utes team is better than people realize. The books are being slow to adjust as the public hasn't quite caught on. Utah added to big time transfers recently (weren't eligible early) in David Collette and Sedrick Barefield. Both are averaging double-figures and Collette is leading the team with 15.4 ppg.

As good as USC has been to start the year, they have not looked nearly as good in Pac-12 play. They lost at Oregon by 23 and just lost at home to Cal. Utah is one of the more difficult places to play and the Utes are 8-1 at home. Their only home game in Pac-12 play was against a quality Colorado team and they annihilated them 76-60. I see another big win here for the Utes, who are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after playing 2 straight on the road. Take Utah!

4* Notre Dame/Miami(FL) ATS Annihilator on Miami -

I'm backing the Hurricanes at home as a short home favorite against the Fighting Irish. I think we are getting some great value here as Notre Dame is getting all kinds of love riding a 5-game winning streak, which includes a 3-0 start in ACC play with wins over Pitt, Louisville and Clemson. The thing is they could have lost all 3, as all 3 wins came by 7 or less. I see a big letdown here for the Irish against what will be a highly motivated Miami team that will be looking to bounce back from an ugly 55-70 loss at Syracuse last time out.

The big key here is Miami has been at their best at home, where they are a perfect 8-0 on the season, which includes a dominant 81-63 win over NC State in their ACC opener. The Hurricanes also have a big edge in rest here. This will be just their 2nd game in 8 days, while Notre Dame will be playing their 3rd game during this same stretch of time. Irish are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins and 2-11 in their last 13 road games after covering the spread in their last game. Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 6 or less. Take Miami!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Heavy Hitter on Illinois +

I really like the value here with the Fighting Illini catching points at home, as I actually think they should be the ones laying points in this one. Illinois is simply getting undervalued after a 16-point loss at Indiana, but this team is clearly not as good on the road as they are at home. In fact, the Illini are 8-1 at home compared to 3-4 on the road.

On the flip side of this, Michigan is a team that I think is getting too much respect from the books and the stats back it up as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4, including a 7-point loss at home to Maryland as an 8-point favorite in their most recent game. The Wolverines are also 0-3 in true road games, losing by 15 at South Carolina as a 3-point favorite, 18 at UCLA as a 9-point dog and 3 at Iowa as a 2.5-point favorite.

To top it off, Michigan is 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season, 2-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record and 0-7 ATS over the last 3 seasons after a loss as a favorite. Take Illinois!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +

I like the value here with the Demon Deacons catching a big number at home against the Tar Heels. It's hard enough to win on the road against a quality opponent in the ACC, it's an even bigger task to win via a blowout. Especially against a caliber a team like Wake Forest, who has gone 6-1 on their home floor this season.

A big reason for the inflated line is we have UNC off a 107-56 blowout win at home over NC State, while the Demon Deacons lost badly in a 62-79 defeat at Virginia. I expect Wake Forest to be the much more motivated team here, as it's easy to let your guard down after a 50+ point win, especially when you have a massive home game on deck in 3-days against a Florida State team that just beat Duke soundly at home.

Tar Heels are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Wake Forest!

5* NCAAB A-10 Game of the Month on George Wash +

I really like the value we are getting with the Colonials as a double-digit dog at VCU. George Washington comes in with a mere 9-7 record, but a lot of that is just not being to close out games late. All but 1 of those losses came by fewer than 10-points. The only exception being a 19-point loss to FSU, who I believe is one of the 5 best teams in the country. VCU on the other hand is 13-3, but have played the much easier schedule in my opinion. Keep in mind this is a team that lost by 18 to Illinois and also lost at home to George Tech. The other big thing is this not the Rams teams of years past, where they were one of the top mid-major teams under Shaka Smart.

I just feel these two teams are more evenly matched than this spread would suggest. It's worth nothing that the Colonials went into VCU and beat the Rams 72-69 as a 9-point dog a year ago. The Colonials are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on the road against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Rams on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite. Take George Washington!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on Indiana -

The Hoosiers snapped a 3-game losing streak in style with a 96-80 win over Illinois last time out. The thing is they are still just 1-2 in Big Ten Play and need this game to get back on track in the standings, so we know we are going to get a max effort here. Maryland comes in of a 77-70 win as a 8-point dog at Michigan, which I think has the, getting a little too much love at home against a much more talented Indiana team. 

Terapins are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games after a SU win, while Indiana is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 against top level teams (outscoring teams by 8+ ppg) after 15+ games. Backing all this up is a strong system favoring a fade of Maryland. Underdogs that have won 80% or more of their games and off a conference win as a dog of 6 or more are just 2-10 (22%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons when facing a team with a winning record. Take Indiana! 

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Florida State -

I really like the value here with FSU laying a short number at home. The Seminoles are an elite team and should be favored by more, but the fact that the opponent is Duke keeping it lower than it should be. On top of that, the Blue Devils are minus one of their most important players in Amile Jefferson. 

Florida State comes into this game 15-1 with a perfect 11-0 record at home. The only loss coming to Temple by just 3-points early in the year on a neutral court. The most impressive win coming recently when they went on the road and beat Virginia. This is an even bigger statement game for the Seminoles against a Duke team that many think will be the team to beat come the NCAA Tournament. 

The Blue Devils are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after leading by 15 or more at the half of their last game and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when the line is +3 to -3. Seminoles are 10-2 ATS in home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home after scoring 85 or more points in their previous game. Take Florida State! 

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on USC - 

I like the value with the Trojans laying a small number here against the Golden Bears. USC responded from their first loss of the season at Oregon in style, crushing Stanford 72-56 at home as a 9-point favorite. While they covered that one, they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7. I believe that recent poor run against the number, is playing a big part in this short line against a Cal team that is just 1-3 on the road and in a tough spot playing their 2nd straight on the road and off a huge game at UCLA.

A big key here is also that USC has been dominant on their home floor, going a perfect 9-0 on the season. Trojans are 7-0 ATS at home after winning 2 of their last 3 and 6-0 ATS after allowing 60 or less. Cal on the other hand is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing a game as a dog and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games off a loss. Take USC!

5* NCAAB Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa -

The Hawkeyes should have no problem cashing in a double-digit win at home against the Scarlet Knights on Sunday. Iowa is a young team that took their lumps in non-conference play against some good teams and are likely going to continue to struggle against the elite teams in the Big 10. The key here is that Rutgers is far from elite. The Scarlet Knights have started out conference play with a 20-point loss at Wisconsin, 13-point loss at home to Penn State and 28-point loss at Michigan State.

The thing with Iowa is this is a team that believes they are much better than their record and know that if they want any chance of making the NCAA Tournament, they have to finish in the top half of the Big Ten standings. Sitting at 1-2 in league play, this is a must-win for the Hawkeyes at home, where they are a very respectable 8-2 on the season. Note that Rutgers is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games and 1-13 ATS in their last 14 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 games. Take Iowa!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Auburn -

I've had my eye on this young Auburn team this year, as I think it's one of the more talented teams that not a lot of people know about. Bruce Pearl is an excellent head coach and is a proven winner wherever he goes. He's got his young Tigers off to a 10-4 start, which is pretty impressive given they only won 11 games all of last year.

The key here is they come in off back-to-back losses and I believe that's created some great value here. Auburn is going to come out 100% locked in at home to secure their first conference win and should be able to make easy work of Ole Miss. The Rebels covered (63-70) as a 13-point dog at Florida in their last game, but it wasn't really that close (made a late push). Prior to that they hosted Kentucky, so Ole Miss is primed for a letdown here in their second straight game on the road. Keep in mind the Tigers are a strong 6-1 at home, while the Rebels have yet to win a true road game. Take Auburn!

4* NCAAB Pac-12 Game of the Week on Utah -

I was on Utah as a double-digit dog at Arizona in their last game, which they covered and I'll jump right back on the Utes in a road game at Arizona State. As mentioned in my analysis for Utah against Arizona, this Utes team is one to watch going forward, as two transfers just recently become eligible and both are studs that will be in the running for Pac-12 All Conference honors. Now that these two are in the mix, this Utah team is better than what people think and I'm confident they will end up near the top of the Pac-12 standings.

Coming off that loss to Arizona should have the Utes locked in for this one and I think there's a big gap in talent here against the Sun Devils. Arizona State barely squeaked out a 78-77 win at home over Colorado in their last game, improving to 2-1 in Pac-12 (other win against a bad Stanford team). Note that Utah beat that same Colorado team at home by 16. Whenever faced up against better competition, this Arizona State has struggled to keep games competitive and I just don't see them keeping this one close, even at home. Give me the Utes -3!

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Utah +

I really like the value we are catching here with Utah as a double-digit dog against Arizona. I know the Wildcats are ranked in the Top 20, but I think the Utes are capable of winning this game outright. Utah comes in at 10-3 and we have barely got to see what this team is capable of, as they just recently added in two transfers in Collette (Utah State) and Barefield (SMU), who weren't eligible until the semester break. They are combining to average about 30 ppg in the 5 games they have played. Both will be in the mix for Pac-12 All-Conference honors and this Utah team is right there with the top teams in the conference.

In Utah's last 5 games they have shot 47% or better from the field in all 5 games and are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after such a stretch. Utes are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Take Utah!

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS Shocker on Iowa +

It's been a rollercoaster start to the 2016-17 season for the Hawkeyes, but things are pointing up for Iowa, who just recently got back stud freshmen forward Tyler Cook (13.1 ppg), who is the only other player besides senior sharpshooter Peter Jok (22.1 ppg) averaging in double-figures. Cook is one of several Iowa freshmen who are making an impact and a bit reason why this team got off to a bit of a slow start in non-conference play. I was really impressed with how they bounced back from an embarrassing 22-point loss at Purdue with a overtime win at home against Michigan.

Nebraska comes in a perfect 2-0 in Big Ten play with a couple of impressive road wins at Indiana and at Maryland. As good as those wins look, I'm not buying this team being a real threat in the Big Ten and the oddsmakers are certainly begging for you to take the Cornhuskers at this line. I think Iowa is the more talented team and pulls out the victory. Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a dog of 6.5 or less and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. Take Iowa!

5* NCAAB Big Ten Game of the Week on Northwestern -

This is a great spot to back the Wildcats laying a short number at home. We are seeing some great value here on Northwestern, based off the results in the last game for both teams. While the Wildcats lost at Michigan State 52-61 as a mere 2.5-point dog, the Gophers won 91-82 as a 14-point dog at Purdue.

Winning back-to-back road games is not easy, especially in conference play and in a elite conference like the Big 10. I look for a big letdown here for Minnesota, while we can expect to see a max effort from Northwestern, who I believe is going to finally break their NCAA Tournament drought this season. Gophers are 1-15 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog of 6.5 or less, while Wildcats are 6-0 ATS last 6 as a favorite of 6.5 or less, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover in their last game. Take Northwestern!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Washington +

I think the value here is with the Huskies, who are getting zero respect in this one, as they take on an Oregon team that comes into this one having won 11 straight. The last two were at home against UCLA and USC, where they handed both those teams their first loss of the season. Now the Ducks hit the road for their first true road game since losing by 17 at Baylor way back on 11/15. It's also worth pointing out that Oregon has had their problems winning in Washington.

The Huskies came out flat after a long layoff and lost 74-79 at home to in-state rival Washington State to open up Pac-12 play. We are going to get a max effort here at home from the Huskies in this one and if they can get hot shooting, an outright upset isn't out of the question. Washington is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 after playing their last 2 games at home. Ducks on the other hand are just 2-6 ATS off a win by 20 or more points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after covering the spread in their last game. Take Washington!

5* NCAAB ACC Game of the Month on Notre Dame +

I think the books have created some great value here with the Irish, as my numbers suggest Notre Dame should be favored here. This is a really tough spot for Louisville, who is coming off a big 15-point win over Indiana, which they were extremely motivated for after losing at home to Virginia the previous time out. Now the Cardinals hit the road for only their second true road game of the season. The first one was at Grand Canyon, which doesn't really count. Note there wasn't even a spread on that game it was such a big mismatch and yet Louisville only won by 9.

I've watched this Notre Dame team on several occasions and really like what I have seen. The big key here is the Irish are at home, where they are 9-0 on the season, outscoring opponents by 26.7 ppg. Notre Dame also has a great history against the Cardinals of late, as they have won and covered 5 straight at home. Louisville is also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games against a conference opponent and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Notre Dame!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Oklahoma State -

I believe the fact that the Cowboys are favored on the road here after getting embarrassed at home 75-92 by West Virginia tells you all you need to know. Oklahoma State has had some poor showings against elite teams, but outside of those two losses to WV and UNC, I've liked what I have seen from this team. I look for a huge effort here on the road against Texas, as the Cowboys want to avoid an 0-2 start with what they have on deck. After this they go to Baylor, host ISU and then go to Kansas.

Texas covered in a 62-65 loss at Kansas State, but this Longhorns team simply isn't very good. They are just 3-7 in their last 10 and last time they played at home they lost 58-63 as a 12.5-point favorite against Kent State. Shaka Smart will get this Longhorns program back to being elite, it just isn't going to happen this year. The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing straight up record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover in their last game. Take Oklahoma State!

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on West Virginia -

I have no problem laying this number on the Mountaineers Tuesday at Texas Tech. West Virginia comes in at 12-1 and just opened up Big 12 play with a 92-75 blowout win on the road against Oklahoma State as a mere 3-point favorite. This Mountaineers team is legit and I'm going to keep riding them until the books make the proper adjustments with their spreads.

The Red Raiders lost 56-63 at Iowa State last Friday and it was a big time meltdown by Tech, who had a double-digit lead with around 10 minutes to play. That was the best team the Red Raiders have played all season. The soft schedule has Texas Tech sitting at 11-2 and 9-0 at home, which is why we are seeing this small number. While the home record looks great, they haven't played anybody. They have 4 home games that didn't even have lines the opp was so bad and 4 more where they were favored by 20+. The only exception being a home game against Rice, where they were favored by just 12 and they barely won that game 85-84. Take West Virginia!

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Creighton +

I think the books have the wrong team favored in this one. The Bluejays are perfect on the season at 13-0 and will be out to make a statement here against the defending champs. This is also a key game when it comes to the Big East title race. If Creighton wants to dethrone Villanova, they can't afford to lose to them at home. We have already seen one elite team come into the CenturyLink Center and leave with a loss. The Bluejays hosted Wisconsin earlier this season and won convincingly 79-67.

Villanova has passed their only significant road test so far this season, winning outright at Purdue 79-76, but this Creighton team matches up much better with the Wildcats. Villanova has relied heavily on their defense, which is only giving up 61.5 ppg, but that unit will be tested here. Creighton has shot 50% or better from the field in all but one game, which is a remarkable feat given they are going into their 14th game of the season. The Bluejays are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 at home and 19-8 ATS in their last 27 against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take Creighton!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Iowa St -

I really like the value here with the Cyclones laying a relatively small number at home against what I feel is a very overrated Texas Tech squad. The Red Raiders come in with a 11-1 record in non-conference play, but that's a result of an easy schedule. The best team they played was Auburn and they lost 65-67 and the Tigers aren't as good as this Iowa State team.

Texas Tech also played just 1 true road game in non-conference play and that was at Richmond, where they were favored. In fact, this will be the first game all season where the Red Raiders are an underdog, which speaks volumes to how easy their schedule has been. The Cyclones hit a bit of a rough patch, losing 3 of 4 after a 5-0 start, but two were against tournament teams in Gonzaga and Cincinnati and the other a true road game against an in-state rival in Iowa, where they simply couldn't buy a basket. Cyclones are 50-20 ATS in their last 70 home games as a favorite of 6 or less. Take Iowa State!

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on West Virginia -

You have to pick your spots with road teams in conference play, but I really like the value here with West Virginia at basically a pick'em on the road against the Cowboys. The Mountaineers went an impressive 11-1 in non-conference play and that included a 66-57 win on the road at Virginia and 89-57 blowout win against Illinois.

The Cowboys were a respectable 10-2 in non-conference, but weren't nearly impressive. The best team they played was North Carolina on a neutral court and they got absolutely destroyed in that contest 75-107. The Mountaineers aren't quite on the level of the Tar Heels, but I don't think they are too far off. Oklahoma State has also had a miserable time against West Virginia over the last 2 years, sweeping all 4 meetings and winning by double-digits in both matchups on the Cowboys' home floor. Take West Virginia!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Butler -

I got no problem laying this big number on the Bulldogs against the Red Storm. Butler comes in at 11-1 with wins over the likes of Arizona, Indiana and Cincinnati. The only reason this line isn't higher, is because St. John's comes in off a shocking 93-60 win at Syracuse in their last game. Just about everything that could go right went right for the Red Storm in that game and the Orange clearly weren't all that interested.

This is still a below-average St. John's team. Just prior to the big win over Syracuse, they lost at home to Penn State by 16. They also have losses to the likes of Long Island and Delaware State. What their win over the Orange does, is keep the Bulldogs from overlooking this contest, which they easily could have done. Butler swept the season series last year, winning 78-58 at home and 89-56 at St. John's. With this year's Bulldogs team looking even stronger than a year ago, I see no reason why they won't win here by double-digits. Take Butler!

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Temple +

I like the value we are getting here with the Owls as a decently priced home dog against the Bearcats. Temple is 8-2 in their last 10 with one of those losses coming in a true road game at Villanova. The Bearcats are 10-2 and do have a big 1-point road win over Iowa State, but also lost by 10 at Butler. I just think this Owls team is too good to be catching this many points at home against a conference rival.

Cincinnati is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games when playing on their 2nd game in 8 days, while the Owls are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 as a dog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Temple!

5* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on Syracuse -

This is an ideal spot to back the Orange at home. Last time out Syracuse was embarrassed on their home floor 60-93 by St. John's as a 14-point favorite. The loss dropped the Orange to 7-5 overall and just 3-5 in their last 8. The key here is that all 5 losses came against quality programs in South Carolina, Wisconsin, UConn, Georgetown and St. John's. With their ACC opener on deck Sunday at BC, this is a game the Orange are going to come out looking to make a statement and get some momentum going into league play.

They should have no problem doing just that. Cornell is a mere 3-8 and have had a horrible time keeping games respectable against better talent. The Big Red's closest opponent talent wise to Syracuse was Houston and they lost to the Cougars by 30-points. The other thing here is that Syracuse has shown the ability to feast on bad teams. Out of their 7 wins, 6 have come by 20+ points, including a 105-57 win over E Michigan at home just last week. Take Syracuse!

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Wake Forest -

This is going to look like a big number for the Demon Deacons to be laying a home. Wake Forest comes in with a record of 8-3, while LSU is sitting at 8-2. The key here is the Tigers strong start isn't as impressive as you might think. LSU has played 7 of their first 10 at home (7-0) and most of those home games coming against inferior competition. Their only games away from home where neutral site games against Wichita State, VCU and Old Dominion. They went just 1-2 in those games, losing by 35 to Wichita State and 11 to VCU.

As we saw with Kentucky last night, going this deep into the season and having to play your first true road game is not an easy task. I look for the Tigers to struggle here against a talented Wake Forest team that is better than anticipated. All 3 of the Deacons losses have come away from home, one was a neutral site game against an elite Villanova team and the most recent a 65-69 loss in a true road game at Xavier, who is another top tier team. The impressive thing with the loss to Xavier, is they had a chance to win, despite shooting just 36.2% from the field and allowing the Musketeers to shoot 51.0%.

That was a rare off night from the floor for Wake Forest, as they have shot 47% or better in 7 of their 11 games this season. LSU has great defensive numbers because of their soft schedule, but allowed 47.1% against Wichita State and 49.2% against VCU. With this being their first true road game, I expect another poor defensive effort. Take Wake Forest in what should be a comfortable double-digit win at home!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Smash on Oklahoma -

I like the value here with the Sooners laying just 6-points against Auburn on a neutral court. Oklahoma comes into this game with a record of just 6-4, but there's nothing to be ashamed about their 4 defeats, losing to UNI, @ Wisconsin, Wichita State (Neutral) and Memphis. The only game they weren't competitive was the true road game at Wisconsin, who is one of the elite teams in the country.

Auburn has the better overall record at 8-2, but the Tigers have played a pretty cupcake schedule. The best team they have played was Purdue, and they lost by 25 on a neutral court. Their best win came against Texas Tech and were fortunate to get that victory in a 67-65 victory. Auburn also lost to BC as a 10.5-point favorite. The Tigers have some nice young talent, but still have a lot of improving to do.

Note that not only has Oklahoma played the tougher schedule, but they have the better overall numbers. The Sooners are shooting 46.6% from the field, while Auburn is only hitting at 43.8% clip. The Tigers allowed Purdue to shoot 64.3% from the field. The Sooners should have  field day here on offense an I don't see Auburn being able to keep pace. Take Oklahoma!

4* Kentucky/Louisville Vegas Insider on Kentucky -

I have no problem backing the Wildcats on the road against a very good Louisville team. Kentucky has the better overall talent in this one and potentially the best player in the country in freshman guard Malik Monk, who just dropped 47 on North Carolina in the Wildcats last game. Louisville is a team that relies on their defense to beat teams and that works to perfection against lessor opponents. I just don't see them having an answer here for Kentucky's star power.

This isn't the first time both teams have been good, yet the Wildcats come in having won each of the last 4 meetings. Louisville is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a dog and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the SEC. Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the ACC and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on the road. Take Kentucky!

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS Smash on Iowa -

I got no problem laying this number with the Hawkeyes at home against an inferior North Dakota team. After a slow start against a brutal schedule, Iowa has looked like a completely different team of late. It started with a 95-68 blowout win over Stetson at home. That got the Hawkeyes confidence back and they followed it up with dominant performances against Iowa State (78-64) and UNI (69-46), winning both in blowout fashion as an underdog.

With an overall record of 6-5, Iowa can't afford to let their guard down here at home against the Fighting Hawks. I believe a lack of effort is the only thing that could keep the Hawkeyes from winning here by 15+ points. Note that the same UNI team Iowa just crushed on a neutral court, lost to the Panthers by 8-points.

It's also worth pointing out that Iowa has a much better home court edge than people think and are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Hawkeyes are also a great bet when playing at home and well rested. They are 32-12 in their last 44 home games when playing only their 2nd game in a week. Take Iowa!