Sports Picks & Predictions

5*

4* No Brainer on Wright State -

Both of these teams come into this matchup with .500 records in Horizon League play, but the value in this matchup is on the home team laying the points. Wright State is a much better team than Youngstown State, and it will show in this game. The Raiders have played a comparable schedule to the Penguins, but statistically they look dominant in comparison to Youngstown.

On the defensive end of the court Wright State has surrendered a mere 54.7 points per game at home. That number is not far off their 61.6 points per game allowed overall this season. The Penguins defense on the other hand has been shaky all season. They are allowing 73 points per game overall and 79.5 points per game on the road. That has come against opponents whose offensive scoring average is only 69.7 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Raiders. You should play against underdogs like Youngstown State when they are coming off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a road cover losing straight up as an underdog. This system has an 87-50 (64%) record over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on La Salle +

This game has upset written all over it. We will take the points with the Explorers on the road, but I would not be surprised to see La Salle come out on top in this game. They are facing a UMass team that has lost three of its last five games, and I expect the Minutemen to underwhelm at home in a matchup sandwiched between two tough road games.

UMass opened the season winning 10 consecutive games. They dropped a close matchup with Florida State before riding a six game win streak. That improbable run had the Minutemen coming into the heart of Atlantic 10 play as one of the country's most overrated teams. Reality has settled in with UMass losing three of its last four games, yet the oddsmakers have continued to overvalue Minutemen in this matchup. They have a 2-8-1 ATS record in their last 11 games.

You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like La Salle when both teams are holding opponents to 67 to 74 points per game after 15 or more games, and the road underdog has scored 30 points or less in the first half of their last two games. The slow starts from the Explorers have La Salle underrated in this matchup. This system has a 70-30 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Boston College +

This is too many points for a quality team like Boston College to receive in a matchup that should prove to be a defensive battle. The Eagles have played some of the best teams in the ACC and have yet to lose a game by a margin larger than 11 points. Virginia is a defense first team, and its unlikely they will score enough points to cover such a large spread in this matchup.

Boston College is a much better team than its 6-15 record would indicate. The Eagles are averaging 70 points per game this season while Virginia comes into this matchup averaging a mere 65.2 points per game at home. Boston College has covered the spread in three of its last four games, and their average margin of loss in ACC play is a mere seven points. In their two games against ranked opponents the Eagles have stayed within 10 points or less.

This matchup fits into a system to play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Boston College when they are coming off a game where they covered the spread but lost straight up as an underdog, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off two or more consecutive road wins. This system identifies teams that are undervalued and facing an opponent playing in a letdown situation. The system has cashed in a 66-31 (68%) record against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on James Madison +

The Dukes have a good chance to pull off an upset against Towson, and listing them as such a large underdog is completely undervaluing this team. Towson State has lost three of its last four games against the spread, and that is a trend that will continue today against James Madison. The Dukes have won two of their last three games, and the loss during that three game stretch came by a mere two points against a very talented William & Mary team.

The Dukes are playing some solid defense right now. Over their last five games they have held opponents to 63.4 points per game. Towson State comes into this matchup surrendering an average of 68 points per game this season. In head-to-head history between these teams James Madison is 3-1 straight up the last three seasons. This is a Colonial Athletic rivalry game that has a history of going down to the wire. There is no reason to expect a different outcome this season.

This matchup fits into a system to play against home teams like Towson State that make 32 to 36.5 percent of their three-point shots on the season and are coming off a shooting performance greater than 55 percent from the field, when they are facing a team making less than 32 percent of their three-point shots. This system identifies teams that are overvalued by the oddsmakers, and these teams typically show some regression in shooting percentage. The system has a 57-31 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Colonial Game of the Week on Northeastern +

These teams have a history of playing some very close games. In fact, four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams have been decided by four points or less. While there records may not indicate it, these teams are actually much more evenly matched than they appear. Delaware's defense has been horrible this season, and I expect them to struggle against a rivalry opponent like Northeastern.

The majority of Delaware's conference games have been close. The last time these teams met the Fightin' Blue Hens picked up a mere four point victory. It took 56 percent shooting from the field for Delaware to win that game, and I don't think they will repeat that feat in the second meeting of the season between these teams. Northeastern had a strong rebounding advantage in that game, and they only had four turnovers which is to be expected against the soft Delaware defense.

The Huskies have been a great team to back from the road underdog spot posting an 11-3 ATS record over the last two seasons. They are 12-3 ATS when playing on the road against against a conference opponent. Delaware is getting way too much credit from the oddsmakers, and I think there is a good chance their horrible defensive play will cost the Blue Hens this game.

5* Horizon League Game of the Year on Oakland +

This is a revenge game for the Oakland Golden Grizzlies after losing to the Milwaukee Panthers earlier this month. Oakland is an easy call in this rematch since they dominated the offensive glass and turnover margin in that first meeting of the season. The Panthers had 17 turnovers in that first game to just nine from Oakland. The Grizzlies also suffered from an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance, and it seems unlikely that will take place again.

The Golden Grizzlies are averaging 74 points per game this season. If not for shooting 32 percent from the field in the first meeting of the season I think the Grizzlies were more than capable of putting up over 80 points on this soft Panthers defense. They had 68 shot attempts in that game to just 54 from Milwaukee. The Panthers have allowed an average of 73.1 points per game at home so I don't think they are getting a lot of benefit from home court advantage.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Golden Grizzlies. You should play on an underdog like Oakland when it is revenging a straight up loss as a favorite against an opponent, when that opponent is coming off an upset win as an underdog over a conference rival in their previous game. This system has cashed in a 67-33 (67%) record against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on Colorado State +

I think listing the Rams as a double-digit underdog is grossly under estimating the talent of this team. The Rams are averaging 75 points per game this season. They have put up comparable numbers to San Diego State in both rebounding margin and turnovers. The last time these teams met the Rams managed to stick within 10 points, and I don't think the change in venue will be enough for the Aztecs to increase their margin of victory.

The Rams biggest advantage in this matchup is their free-throw shooting ability. They average 29 attempts from the free throw line, and they have made just shy of 73 percent of those attempts. San Diego State on the other hand is making just 63.4 percent of their attempts from the line. The Aztecs rely heavily on their ability to force turnovers in order to win games, but Colorado State is a great ball control team averaging just nine turnovers per game.

This matchup fits into a system to play on the Rams. You should take road underdogs of 10 points or more like Colorado State when they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season, and they are revenging a home loss against a team with a winning record. This system has a 105-58 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Nevada -

Air Force is one of the worst teams in the Mountain West conference, and I expect them to lose in a blowout on the road against Nevada. The Wolf Pack have a 6-2 record against conference opponents and a 7-1 record against the spread in those games. They have been playing incredibly well lately and should have no problem putting a big number on the scoreboard against this soft Falcons defense.

Nevada is averaging 74.1 points per game. They are a very efficient team averaging just 11 turnovers per game. The Falcons come into this matchup averaging 14 turnovers per game. Air Force is the 294th ranked team in the country for rebounds per game. Nevada should have no problem getting enough extra shot attempts to win this game by a double-digit margin thanks to the better turnover and rebounding margins.

Nevada is 8-0 ATS this season when facing a poor pressure defense that is forcing 12 or less turnovers per game. They are 9-0 ATS against teams who average six or less steals per game. The Falcons are coming off a double-digit loss against Boise State so their confidence will be low in this matchup. They are 2-5 on the road and 3-5 against conference opponents this season. Nevada is the better team, and with home court advantage they should have no problem winning this game by a double-digit margin.

5* Colonial Game of the Month on Drexel +

I don't put a lot of stock in the first meeting of the season between these teams. Drexel had an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance in that game. The Dragons dominated Towson in shot attempts and rebounds, but shooting 31.9 percent from the field took away any chance they had to win that game. Its very unlikely that will take place again, so I think we are getting a lot of value with the better team playing as an underdog in this second meeting of the season.

Drexel has been a great team to back on the road this year with an 8-4 ATS record. I don't think Towson is as good as their 10-1 home record would indicate. The Tigers have played an incredibly soft schedule this season, and it has artificially inflated their offensive and defensive statistics. Drexel on the other hand has played a tough schedule. The Dragons opponents average 72.2 points per game, yet Drexel has surrendered just 69.6 points per game when playing on the road.

Drexel is 33-15 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent. Towson on the other hand comes into this game with a 3-10 ATS record in their last 13 home games against a team that has a winning record on the road. Drexel is a much better team than they are getting credit for. They had an extra 25 shot attempts over Towson State in the first meeting of the season, so even if they only slightly improve their shooting percentage in this matchup the Dragons should have no problem picking up a win.

3* No Doubt Rout on Pacific +

The Pacific Tigers should have a good opportunity to pull off a road upset in this matchup with San Diego. The Toreros have played in a lot of very close games this season. Four of their last five games have been decided by three points or less, and they are facing a Tigers team that is much better than they are getting credit for. Pacific is averaging 75.1 points per game this season which makes them one of the better scoring teams San Diego has faced.

The Toreros are a poor scoring team. Their opponents have surrendered an average of 73.1 points per game, yet San Diego is scoring a mere 67.5 points per game this season. I think the Toreros are playing in a letdown spot after pulling off an upset win as an underdog in their last outing. San Diego is 2-11 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons. They are also 0-6 ATS after a win by 15 points or more.

San Diego may not surrender a lot of points, but I credit that to their soft schedule rather than solid defensive play. The Toreros do not force a lot of turnovers and they are averaging just six steals per game. Pacific is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games against opponents who average six of less steals per game on the season. The Tigers have played a much stronger schedule than San Diego, yet these teams have comparable records. The value in this matchup is on Pacific plus the points.

4* ACC Game of the Week on Maryland -

Virginia Tech is the worst team in the ACC and I expect the Terrapins to hand them their eighth conference loss of the season. Virginia Tech has a 1-7 record against conference opponents this season, and they are 2-6 ATS in those games. Their average margin of defeat is just shy of 11 points per game. The Hokies are showing no signs of life coming off back-to-back losses by 20 points or more.

The Terrapins have been victim to an incredibly difficult schedule, but they have still managed to post a 4-4 record against ACC opponents. They are coming off a big win over Miami in their last outing, and managed to stay within four points of No. 20 ranked Pittsburgh in the game prior. Maryland has a +5 figure in rebounding margin, and they have a strong head-to-head history against Virginia tech. The Terrapins are a perfect 3-0 straight up and ATS in their last three meetings with the Hokies.

Virginia Tech is 1-10 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games. Maryland on the other hand is 14-4 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal losing team that has won 40 to 49 percent of their games after 15 or more games. The Hokies have lost six of their eight conference games by six or more points, and that is a trend I expect to see continue in this matchup.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Oakland -

This game has blowout written all over it. Oakland may not have a great record, but they have played an incredibly difficult schedule this season. The Golden Grizzlies have faced four ranked opponents, and they have played in some very close games against them. They lost by just four points against then No. 5 ranked Michigan State on a neutral court, and they come into this matchup against Youngstown State with a 7-2 record at home.

The Penguins have struggled on the road this season posting a 4-7 record. I expect Oakland to put a huge number on the scoreboard facing such a soft defense. The Golden Grizzlies average 82.3 points per game at home while the Penguins are allowing 78.9 points per game on the road. Youngstown State is also -5 in rebounding margin on the road. They are at a statistical disadvantage on the boards and in the turnover margin.

Youngstown State comes into this matchup with a 2-5 ATS record against conference opponents. They have been given far too much credit from the oddsmakers recently, and that has resulted in a 2-3 ATS record in the Penguins last five games. Oakland has several statistical advantages in this game, and I think they are being undervalued because of their poor record. The Golden Grizzlies strength of schedule has been ridiculously difficult this year, and with home court advantage Oakland should easily win this game.

5* Ivy League Game of the Year on Penn +

The wrong team is favored in this game since Dartmouth will be without its best player. Gabas Maldunas is out for the season with an ACL injury, and he is Dartmouth's leading scorer this season. You can see the impact Maldunas has on the team by looking at Dartmouth's performance against Harvard. They lost on the road by 16 points with Maldunas in the lineup and lost by 30 points at home without him.

Pennsylvania is a much better team than their record would indicate. They may be 4-11 overall this season, but the non-conference schedule has been incredibly tough. Dartmouth on the other hand has played an incredibly soft schedule this year, and I don't think the Big Green will be able to compete with Penn in this game. The Quakers are 1-0 against Ivy League opponents, while Dartmouth has lost five consecutive games including a 0-2 record against Ivy League teams. The Big Green are averaging just 51.8 points per game during that five game stretch.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Quakers. You should play on underdogs coming off a win of 15 points or more when they are facing an opponent that is coming off a blowout loss of 20 points or more. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 255-164 (61%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Late Night Bailout on Long Beach State +

The oddsmakers have given Hawaii too much credit for home court advantage in this game. The 49ers have been playing great basketball recently, winning three of their last four games. Two of those wins have come by a double-digit margin, and the third was an upset win as a road underdog. Long Beach State has covered the spread in five of its last seven games, and I like their chances to continue that trend against the Warriors.

Hawaii is a bad team defensively. They are surrendering 72.3 points per game this season. The Warriors offensive numbers are a bit inflated thanks to a soft schedule. Hawaii's opponents have been poor defensive teams that surrender an average of almost 75 points per game. That won't be the case in this matchup against Long Beach State. The 49ers are holding opponents 1.5 points below their scoring average this season.

You should play against home favorites that are coming off an upset win as an underdog when they have won 60 to 80 percent of their games and they are playing a team that has won only 20 to 40 percent of their games. This system identifies teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers. It has resulted in a 59-25 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UTEP +

The wrong team is favored in this matchup between Louisiana Tech and UTEP. The Miners have a respectable 4-1 record in C-USA play, and they can move into a share of first place with a win over Louisiana Tech tonight. The Bulldogs are still without leading scorer Raheem Appleby, and with the competition level getting a lot stronger in this matchup I expect his absence to catch up with them.

The Bulldogs typically have a big rebounding advantage over their opponents, but that won't be the case against UTEP. The Miners are +6 in rebounding margin at home, and I see no reason why they won't dominate the boards in this matchup. The Miners are also riding a four game win streak, and they have a 10-3 straight up record at home.

This matchup fits into a system to play against Louisiana Tech. You should fade a hot team that has covered the spread in seven of their last eight games when they have won 80 percent or more of their games overall and they are facing a good team that has won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies teams that are overvalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 130-77 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Ohio Valley Game of the Month on Tennessee State +

Tennessee State may not have a great overall record, but they are a much better team than they are getting credit for. This matchup has a lot of upset potential, and I like the Tigers to play a great game against their in-state conference rival. Tennessee Tech picked up a win in the first meeting of the season between these teams, but it was only by four points. The Tigers had a poor shooting performance in that game, but we can expect a much better showing in the second meeting of the season between these teams.

Tennessee State played Wichita State to 14 points on the road, and lost by just five points on the road against Auburn. This is a young team that has shown a lot of improvement each week. They don't have any seniors, so everyone on the team will be fighting for a position on next year's team. There will be no packing it in for the Tigers this season, and they will have the revenge factor on their side in this matchup.

Tennessee Tech has been given too much credit from the oddsmakers when playing at home. The Golden Eagles have a 2-3 record against the spread at home, and they are 1-4 ATS overall in their last five games. Tennessee State on the other hand has a 7-4 ATS record on the road, and a winning record of 10-8 ATS overall this season. This is a big rivalry game for these schools, and it is one the Tigers hold the advantage. They are 3-2 both straight up and against the spread over the last three seasons, and I expect them to improve on those numbers today.

3* Bailout Blowout on Belmont -

This game has blowout written all over it. Belmont is an explosive offensive team with a very underrated defense. The Bruins are averaging 79 points per game, and they have barely slowed down when playing on the road by still averaging 77.8 points per game. The defense has surrendered 75.2 points per game, but a big reason for that has been an incredibly difficult schedule. The Bruin's opponents have an offensive average of almost 73 points per game.

Belmont has dominated the head-to-head series with Morehead State. They are a perfect 3-0 straight up the last three seasons. The Bruins picked up a 14 point win the last time these teams met, and I don't think a change in venue is enough to swing the outcome of this game enough to give Morehead State the advantage. Belmont is one of the best shooting teams in the country. They rank sixth in the nation in field goal percentage making 50.1 percent of their attempts.

Morehead State has been a great team to fade in conference games the last two seasons. They have an 8-17 record against the spread, and they are just 2-5 ATS this season when facing an Ohio Valley rival. Morehead played a great game statistically in the first meeting of the season between these teams shooting 46 percent from the field and 41.2 percent on three point attempts. There was not much else they could do to narrow the gap, so I see no reason to expect a different result in this matchup.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Boston College -

Virginia Tech is easily the worst team in the conference, and Boston College should have no problem picking up a big win at home in this matchup. The Hokies are averaging a mere 60.8 points per game on the road this season, and they will struggle to keep pace with this Eagles team that is averaging just shy of 72 points per game at home. Boston College may not have a great record, but they have certainly shown flashes of greatness this year.

The Eagles played a much closer game with Syracuse than the final score would indicate. The same can also be said about their game with North Carolina. The schedule has been incredibly difficult this season, yet Boston College has managed to play in some very close games. They already have a three point win on the road against Virginia Tech, and with home court advantage in these team's second meeting of the season I see no reason why the Eagles can't widen that margin of victory.

Virginia Tech is 2-10 ATS when coming off a game scoring 55 points or less. They have also been a great team to fade after playing from the road underdog position. The Hokies are 3-14 ATS over the last three seasons when coming off a game as a road dog. The Eagles have dominated the head-to-head series with Virginia Tech. They are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in the last four games against the Hokies.

3* No Doubt Rout on La Salle +

George Washington is without its best player tonight when they take on La Salle, and I think they will have a hard time protecting their undefeated record at home without him. Kethan Savage is second in scoring and pulls in 4.6 rebounds per game for the Colonials. He is also second on the team in assists and first on the team in steals. Making up for his lost production will be a challenge, and I think La Salle is good enough to pull off the upset without Savage in the game.

The Explorers are averaging 70.9 points per game this season so keeping pace with GW should be a fairly easy task to accomplish. The defense is surrendering just 65.6 points per game when playing on the road. The Explorers have played well against conference opponents, posting a 3-2 record this season. Their most recent loss came in double-overtime against VCU in a game that was much closer than the final score.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Explorers. You should play on a team like La Salle that has failed to cover the spread in three or more games when they are playing an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in four or more games. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 119-67 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* American Athletic Game of the Week on South Florida +

This game has upset written all over it. The last time these teams met South Florida was on the road, and I expect them to get some revenge against the Mustangs when they play from the host role in the second meeting of the season. The Bulls have played a tough schedule recently, and I think that has forced the oddsmakers to under value South Florida in this game.

The Bulls have played three consecutive games against ranked opponents. After a brutal stretch of schedule like that I expect South Florida to respond with a strong performance against SMU. The Mustangs have benefit from a soft schedule recently, and they are playing their second consecutive road game in the last three days. That should have SMU playing in a letdown spot against the Bulls.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing South Florida. You should play on underdogs like the Bulls after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games combined when playing in the month of January. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have undervalued, and it has resulted in a 42-15 (74%) record against the spread.

3* Main Event on Eastern Washington +

The wrong team is favored in this matchup between the Eastern Washington Eagles and Portland State Vikings. Eastern Washington is averaging 74.2 points per game and they have the 112th scoring offense in the country. Portland State on the other hand is coming into this matchup with the 186th ranked scoring offense with 71.6 points per game. The Vikings also ranked near last in rebounds per game with 31.8.

Portland State has struggled against Big West opponents this season. They have a 3-4 record in conference games and a 2-5 ATS record in those matchups. Sadly, the oddsmakers have set the bar incredibly low for the Vikings in those games listing them as an underdog in five of their seven matchups with Big Sky foes. Three of the Vikings last four losses have come by a double-digit margin, and with Eastern Washington having such a strong rebounding advantage in this matchup, that trend will likely continue.

Portland State is 9-18 ATS against conference opponents over the last two seasons. They are also 2-10 ATS against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 turnovers or less after 15 or more games. You should play on underdogs like Eastern Washington when they have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games in a January game. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers are undervaluing and it has resulted in a 42-15 (73%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Stanford -

This game has blowout written all over it. Stanford is the better offensive team in this matchup, averaging 76.8 points per game this season against opponents whose defensive scoring average is a mere 69.8 points per game. The Cardinal should score at will against this soft Trojans defense. USC has surrendered 74.3 points per game this year, and they are showing no signs of being able to stop the bleeding any time soon.

USC is really struggling right now. They have lost five of their last six games straight up. All five of those losses have come by a double-digit margin. In fact, the Trojans average margin of loss in those games is a whopping 22.4 points. Stanford on the other hand has suffered just two double-digit loses all season, both coming against some very good teams. They also have a win over then No. 10 ranked UConn and No. 17 ranked Oregon, so there has not been a lot of disparity in strength of schedule.

USC is 7-17 ATS against good teams that are outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or more games. The Trojans are also 17-32 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons and 12-26 ATS in all home games during that time. Stanford on the other hand has a 20-8 ATS record on the road when coming off a game with a combined score of 165 points or more. The Cardinal are hot right now shooting over 52 percent from the field in three of their last four games, and I expect them to easily get past the Trojans and their soft defense.

4* Ohio Valley Game of the Week on Belmont -

This game has blowout written all over it. Eastern Kentucky is nowhere near as good as their 14-6 record would indicate. Five of their six losses have come by six points or more, and I expect them to struggle against the best team in the Ohio Valley Conference. Eastern Kentucky's stat sheet is bloated thanks to their soft schedule. Their opponents have surrendered an average of 74.9 points per game this season so I am not impressed by their 76.5 points per game scored when playing on the road.

The Belmont Bruins come into this matchup protecting a 7-1 record on their home court. They average over 80 points per game at home. The Bruins are an excellent foul drawing team, and I think their 73 percent from the free throw line gives them another huge advantage against the Colonels. I also expect the Bruins to dominate the rebounding margin in this game. Eastern Kentucky is -6 in rebounding margin overall, and that number drops to -8 when playing on the road.

The Colonels have had issues with getting into foul trouble this season. They are averaging 22 personal fouls per game on the road, and fading the Colonels is an easy call for a team that is 25-43 ATS against teams making 72 percent or more of their free throw attempts. Eastern Kentucky is going to lose the battle from the free throw line as well as losing in rebounding margin. With the Bruins playing at home they should easily cover such a small spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Southern Miss -

There is no reason for the Golden Eagles to be listed as anything less than a double-digit favorite in this game. They come into this matchup with a 17-3 overall record this season, including a 4-1 record in C-USA play. They are facing an East Carolina Pirates team that has yet to win a game against a conference opponent. They have lost half of their conference games by a double-digit margin, and have yet to face a conference opponent that has won more than 11 games on the season.

Southern Miss has a very underrated scoring defense. They have held opponents whose offensive average is over 70 points per game to a mere 63.2 points per game. They are an outstanding rebounding team with a +7 figure in rebounding margin. The Golden Eagles are averaging 74 points per game on offensive, so I don't think they will have any trouble putting up a number big enough to cover this spread. The Pirates have faced some soft opponents this year. Those opponents are surrendering an average of 75.5 points per game, so I don't think East Carolina is as good as its 11-8 record would indicate.

This matchup fits into a system to fade the Pirates. You should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like East Carolina when they are coming off a loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of six points or more, and they are playing against an opponent that is coming off a road win over a conference rival. This system has a 94-51 (65%) record against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on NC Greensboro +

The Chattanooga Mocs are very overrated. They opened the season with a 4-8 record, and caught a hot streak during a very soft stretch of schedule. Things will get a lot tougher today when they face the UNC-Greensboro Spartans.

Greensboro has played a tough schedule this season. They have faced four ACC opponents and one team from the American Athletic conference. Their difficult strength of schedule should have the Spartans well prepared for an overrated team like Chattanooga. The Mocs have a soft defense that is surrendering 74.1 points per game this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Spartans. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Greensboro when they are scoring 67-74 points per game on the season while coming off two or more consecutive overs, and they are facing a poor defensive team that is allowing 74-78 points per game after 15 or more games. This system is 29-9 (76%) against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on Long Beach State -

This game has blowout written all over it. The Long Beach State 49ers have a dominating advantage in rebounding and turnovers, and combined with home court advantage I think they will easily win this game by a double-digit margin. The 49ers are much better than their record would indicate because of their incredibly difficult strength of schedule.

Long Beach State has faced seven teams that were either ranked at the time of play or at some other point in the season. Their two conference losses have come against teams with a combined 25-12 record this season, and they have been two of the top three teams in the Big West conference. The 49ers have the luxury of playing host to a team that is surrendering 76.5 points per game, so I expect the 49ers to put a big number on the scoreboard.

Long Beach State is 11-2 ATS against poor defensive teams that are allowing a shooting percentage of 45 percent or more. CS-Northridge comes into this matchup with a 3-11 ATS record when coming off a road loss. The Matadors are a bad team, and the underrated 49ers should have no problem picking up a big win on their home court today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Nevada +

I expect to see the Wolf Pack play a close game with the Cowboys today. Nevada is an uptempo team averaging 59 shot attempts per game on the road. Wyoming on the other hand averages just 45 shot attempts per game. The Wolf Pack are scoring 77.5 points per game in those road games, so I like their chances to put a big number on the scoreboard today.

I think Wyoming is overrated based on what has been a pretty soft schedule for the Cowboys. They did face Nevada earlier this season, and it was a game the Wolfpack won by three points. I don't think a change in venue is enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for the Cowboys to cover the spread. Wyoming's home court advantage has been non-existent this season, and Nevada has a 7-2 ATS record on the road.

Nevada is 40-21 ATS in road games against poor pressure defense teams that are forcing less than 14 turnovers per game after 15 or more games on the season. They are also 19-6 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last three seasons. This game should end up with a similar outcome to the first meeting of the season between these teams. The Wolf Pack dominated the offensive glass in that matchup, and those second chance shot attempts will prove to be too much for the Cowboys to overcome.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Western Kentucky +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this Sun Belt Conference showdown. Both of these teams come into this matchup with a 12-7 overall record. Western Kentucky has the advantage in conference play with a 4-2 record, while Louisiana-Lafayette sits at 3-3. The Hilltoppers have played a much tougher schedule, so I think records alone are very misleading for these teams.

Statistically Western Kentucky should dominate this game. Its defense has surrendered a mere 63.9 points per game when playing on the road this season. LA-Lafayette comes into this matchup surrendering an average of 75.3 points per game, so I expect the Hilltoppers to score at-will on the offensive end of the court.

Western Kentucky is 32-16 ATS when playing on the road against a team that has won 60 to 80 percent of its games after 15 or more games in the season. Louisiana-Lafayette comes into this matchup with a 2-10 ATS record when playing any team with a winning record after 15 or more games. The Ragin' Cajuns are overrated and I expect Western Kentucky to put them in their place today.

5* Missouri Valley Game of the Month on Northern Iowa -

The Panthers are clearly the better team in this matchup, and I expect them to make easy work of the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers. The Panthers have a better record than the Ramblers, and the strength of their schedule has been a lot more difficult. Northern Iowa has faced three teams that have been ranked in the top 10 at some point in the season. The Panthers picked up an 11 point win against VCU, and took Iowa State to overtime this year.

Statistically the Northern Iowa has a huge advantage in this matchup. It is averaging 72.3 points per game to just 66.4 points per game from the Ramblers. UNI has been an excellent ball control team committing just 11 turnovers per game, and they have a defense that has held opponents to 68.4 points per game. While their scoring defense may not stand out as being above average, when you consider the schedule the Panthers have faced it is a very impressive number. Their opponents have averaged over 70 points per game prior to facing the Panthers.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Northern Iowa. You should play on road favorites like the Panthers when they have been beaten by the spread by 18 or more points combined in their last three games, and they have won 45 to 55 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies teams that are being undervalued by the oddsmakers and it has resulted in a 41-16 (72%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Quinnipiac +

This is a lot of points for the Bobcats to be receiving in a game of such high importance. A win over the Gaels would move them into a share of first place in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Quinnipiac is on fire right now having won five of its last six games. Their margin of victory in those five games is an impressive 11.4 points per game. The Bobcats have an 11-6 overall record, and they have been exceeding oddsmakers expectations by posting a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games.

Iona comes into this matchup with a 6-10 record against the spread. They have been a major disappointment this season, and I think they are severely overrated by the oddsmakers in this game. The Gaels have one of the worst defenses in the country. They are surrendering 80.2 points per game this year, and they have received little to no benefit when playing at home. The last time these teams met Quinnipiac picked up a 12 point win at home, and a change in venue is not enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for the Gaels to cover the spread.

Iona is 5-17 ATS against good teams that are outscoring opponents by four or more points per game. The Gaels are also 11-26 ATS in home games when playing a team that has won 60 to 80 percent of its games on the season. The Bobcats have had no problem scoring points this year. They average 77.5 points per game overall and 77.3 points per game on the road. The Gaels defense is a mess, and I think it will cost them again in the second meeting of the season between these teams.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Arizona State -

I don't think Utah is as good as their 14-4 record would indicate. They have played the majority of their games at home this year, and when they have played on the road it has not looked good. The Utes are 0-3 in road games, and I expect them to struggle against an Arizona State team that is 9-1 when playing at home.

The Sun Devils come into this matchup averaging 80.1 points per game at home. While the offense has been spectacular, it is actually the defense that has been the key to their success. Arizona State is surrendering a mere 61.1 points per game at home, and they should make easy work of a Utah team that averages just 56.7 points per game when playing on the road.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Sun Devils. You should play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Arizona State when they are shooting 45-47.5 percent and they are facing a defense that has allowed less than 40 percent shooting in a game two good ball handling teams that average less than 14.5 turnovers after 15 or more games in the season. This system is 66-31 (68%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Charlotte +

This is way too many points for Charlotte to be receiving against a Louisiana Tech team that will be without its leading scorer. Raheem Appleby leads the Bulldogs in scoring with 16.1 points per game, and he is out for 6-8 weeks with an ankle injury. Appleby is one of just three players averaging double-digits in scoring, so his production will certainly be missed.

If the Bulldogs were facing a bad team they could probably get by without Appleby. However, they are facing a Charlotte 49ers team that is 12-5 on the year and currently sitting in second place in Conference USA standings. The 49ers have two wins over teams that are currently ranked, and they have won four of their last five games coming into this matchup. Their difficult schedule should have them well prepared for the Bulldogs, especially since Louisiana Tech is without its best player.

These teams are even in several key statistical categories. However, it is the 49ers that get the advantage in three-point shooting. Charlotte is making 42.1 percent of its three-point attempts on the road this season. The team averages 76.2 points per game, so staying within a double-digit margin against the Bulldogs should be an easy task to accomplish.

4* Conference USA Game of the Week on Tulane +

The Tulane Green Wave have several key advantages over the East Carolina Pirates. Tulane has played a much stronger schedule, yet they have a very similar record to East Carolina. The Green Wave's opponents have surrendered an average of 69.9 points per game this season, compared to 75.7 points per game allowed from the Pirate's opponents.

Both of these teams have put up similar defensive numbers, and giving Tulane eight points is simply too many in a matchup that could go either way. These teams have similar figures in rebounding margin and turnovers. The fact that Tulane has played a much stronger schedule tells me they are the better team. I like their chances to play a close game with East Carolina, and even have a chance to pull off an upset.

East Carolina has struggled when facing a winning team. They are 17-35 ATS when playing against a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of their games after 15 or more games in the season. The Pirates defense has been soft, and they are 9-25 ATS after three straight games forcing opponents to commit 11 or less turnovers. Home court advantage is not enough to swing this game by the amount of points it would take to cover this spread. The Green Wave are every bit as good as the Pirates. This game could go either way, but it should be decided by less than eight points regardless of who comes out on top.

4* Southern Conference Game of the Week on Davidson -

After getting off to a slow start Davidson has really turned things on recently. The Wildcats have won four of their last five games, with all four of those games being won by a double-digit margin. The only loss during that stretch was a two-point loss to Elon in a game that went to overtime. The competition is much weaker tonight, so I like Davidson's chances to pick up a big road win.

The Wildcats are averaging 76.4 points per game this season. Their production is barely slowed down in road games averaging 75.7 points per game. Western Carolina may have an undefeated record at home, but they have faced several schools that are not even division one opponents. In fact, the oddsmakers have only set three lines out of the Catamounts eight home games.

Davidson has been a great team to back in conference play over the years. They are 143-109 (57%) against the spread when facing a conference opponent. The Wildcats are also 45-27 ATS when the line is less than three points. I think Western Carolina's soft schedule has them coming into this matchup very overrated, and I like the Wildcats to give them a reality check today.

3* No Doubt Rout on La Salle +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup between the La Salle Explorers and St Bonaventure Bonnies. The Bonnies have lost three consecutive games, including an eight point loss at home in their last outing. They have shown no signs of being able to stop the bleeding any time soon, so I expect the Explorers to pick up their sixth consecutive win in this game.

La Salle has a very good defense, and I think they have a lot of matchup advantages on the court. The Explorers have held opponents to a mere 65.6 points per game on the road this season. That is a very impressive number considering their opponents scoring average is almost 73 points per game. Against common opponents this year La Salle has a 3-0 record, to a 1-2 record from the Bonnies. The disparity in talent is obvious so we will happily take the free points.

St Bonaventure is 1-11 ATS in home games after two straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls, and they are 6-22 ATS in home games when coming off a home loss. The Bonnies are also 5-15 ATS in home games when when coming off an upset loss as a favorite. Last season La Salle took both games over St Bonaventure, and I like the explorers to keep that trend alive this season.

4* No Brainer on Oakland +

The Golden Grizzlies are a much better team than they get credit for, and I expect them to play a close game against WI-Green Bay. Oakland should have no problem keeping pace with the Phoenix in this matchup. They are averaging 73.6 points per game this season, exceeding their opponents defensive scoring average by over three points per game.

The oddsmakers overvalued Green Bay in their last outing, yet they still have the Phoenix listed as a double-digit favorite in this game. It is simply too many points against a Horizon League opponent, especially with the Phoenix coming off four consecutive road games. They have not played a game at home in almost three weeks, and the defense has been showing signs of weakness recently surrendering just over 70 points per game in their last five games.

Oakland is 29-11 ATS in road games when coming off two straight games against conference opponents. Green Bay on the other hand has posted a 4-16 ATS record off three straight wins against conference rivals. You should play against teams coming off three or more road wins when they have won 80 percent of more of their games on the season. This system is 26-6 (81%) ATS over the last five seasons.

5* Heavy Hitter on Northeastern +

This is way too many points for an underrated team like Northeastern to be receiving. The Huskies have played a tough schedule this season, and they have picked up some impressive wins in the process. The highlight win of the season game in a 63-56 victory over Georgetown, so I think Northeastern is a much better team than their record indicates.

The Huskies have three losses in Colonial Athletic play, and all of those losses have come by a single-digit margin. They are up against a Towson team that is very overrated thanks to a soft schedule. The Tigers are coming off back-to-back road games against conference opponents, and I have them playing in a letdown spot at home against Northeastern.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Northeastern. You should play against home favorites like Towson when they are coming off an upset win as a road underdog and they have won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season when they are playing against a team that has won 20 to 40 percent of their games on the year. This system has cashed in a 44-16 (73%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Indiana +

This is a revenge game for the Hoosiers, and the oddsmakers have been a little too generous giving them so many points in the second meeting of the season between these teams. Indiana is coming off a loss to Northwestern, but I won't hold that game against them since they were playing in a letdown spot after handing the No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers their first loss of the season. I think that loss to the Wildcats has forced the oddsmakers to undervalue the Hoosiers.

Michigan State is playing in a big letdown situation. The Spartans have in-state rival Michigan on deck, and after beating the Hoosiers handily in the first meeting I think their is a lot of potential to look past Indiana. The Hoosiers will have a big size advantage in this game since Michigan State will be without Adreian Payne. He is second in scoring for the Spartans this year, and the senior forward is also one of the team's best players on the defensive end of the court. His production will be missed against a team with the size that Indiana has on the roster.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Hoosiers. You should play against favorites like Michigan State when they have won 80% or more of their games on the season and have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games, when the are playing a good team that has won 60 to 80 percent of their games on the season. This system identifies teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers, and it has resulted in a 125-75 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Marquette +

The wrong team appears to be favored when the Marquette Golden Eagles take on the Georgetown Hoyas. Marquette has played an incredibly difficult schedule this year. Half of the Golden Eagles losses have come against teams that are currently ranked, or have been ranked at one point in the season. The Hoyas are really having trouble in Big East play, so there is a lot of value on a good team like Marquette coming into this game as an underdog.

Georgetown has lost three of its last four games. Their only win during that stretch was a tough overtime game that they probably should have lost during regulation. The Golden Eagles have several key advantages in this matchup. First of all, they are a great foul drawing team. The Hoyas have had a lot of problems with getting into foul trouble and if the Hoyas get in trouble early, they will struggle to slow the Golden Eagles down. Marquette also has a defensive advantage in this game. The Golden Eagles have surrendered a mere 63.6 points per game this season.

Marquette is not an underdog very often, but in those rare situations like today they have been a great team to back. With Buzz Williams as head their coach the Golden Eagles are 34-19 ATS as an underdog. With Marquette coming off a road loss I expect to see them bounce back with a strong performance in Georgetown. The Golden Eagles are 11-3 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons.

3* Main Event on Minnesota +

This is too many points for the Gophers to be receiving in what should prove to be a very close game. The Gophers losses this season have been very respectable. They suffered a single digit loss to a Syracuse team that is arguably the best team in the country. In conference play their losses have come against Michigan and Michigan State. The loss to the Wolverines was decided by just three points, while the Gophers took then No. 5 Michigan State to overtime in a game that was much closer than the final score.

Minnesota is coming off a confidence boosting win at home over Ohio State. I think there is a lot of potential for the Gophers to pull off an upset in this matchup with Iowa. The Hawkeyes have a road game against Michigan on deck, and after pulling off an upset over Ohio State in their last outing I think Iowa is playing in a letdown situation. Iowa's win over the Buckeyes was on the road, and after a win like that I don't think the Hawkeyes will be playing with the mentality it takes to win a game by double-digits against a tough conference opponent like Minnesota.

While the points surrendered from both of these teams may make this matchup look fairly even, I would argue the Gophers have the better defense based on their schedule. Minnesota

5* Big West Game of the Year on Long Beach State +

The 49ers have been a great team to back on the road when they are playing a team with a losing record. They have a 34-19 ATS record in those games, and that is a trend that should continue this weekend. Cal Poly has faced an incredibly soft schedule this year, yet it still sits two games below a .500 record. The Mustang

3* Oddsmakers Error on Cornell +

The Cornell Big Red are coming off a much needed and confidence boosting win. Cornell has played in some very close games this season, and I don

3* No Doubt Rout on Georgia +

The Razorbacks are playing in a letdown spot after pulling off what many considered an upset over Kentucky in their last game. Arkansas has not played well on the road this season posting a 2-3 record, and they are facing a Georgia team that has protected their home court with a 7-1 record. The Bulldogs are a much better team than they are getting credit for, and with the backing of their home crowd I think there is a lot of potential for Georgia to pick up their eighth home win of the season.

Georgia has a strong defensive advantage in this matchup. Arkansas is surrendering 75.6 points per game on the road this year, while Georgia has allowing just 60.7 points per game when playing at home. I also like the Bulldogs chances to win both the turnover and rebounding margins in this matchup. Georgia is +8 in rebounding margin at home, and they average a mere 13 turnovers per game.

The Razorbacks are 4-16 ATS in road games when coming off one or more consecutive wins. They are also 2-12 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more in their previous game. Georgia is 22-9 ATS in home games after coming off a loss by 15 points or more. The Bulldogs suffered a tough road loss against Florida, but that was to be expected with such a large talent gap between those teams. In this matchup the Bulldogs will face a team of an equal talent level, and with home court advantage they should have no problem picking up a win.

4* Heavy Hitter on Tulsa -

Marshall has been one of the biggest disappointments in C-USA this season. The Thundering Herd have faced one of the softest schedules in the conference. Their opponents are surrendering an average of 75.5 points per game, compared to just 69.8 points surrendered by the Golden Hurricanes opponents. Tulsa has produced just as well on the road as they have at home, so I don

4* Vegas Insider on Long Beach State +

There is a lot of value on Long Beach State receiving so many points against UC-Santa Barbara. The 49ers have churned out a profitable 5-3 ATS record on the road, while the Gauchos have received little to no home court advantage with their 2-2 ATS record at home. I think the 49ers difficult non-conference schedule will make Santa Barbara look like a practice squad in this game. Long Beach State has played seven games against teams that are currently ranked, or have been ranked at one point in the season.

Santa Barbara played a fairly soft non-conference schedule, and they looked completely unprepared for the better talent that comes when facing a conference opponent. They opened Big West play with a six point loss at home, and I think they will struggle to get past the 49ers who look like a completely new team with Tyler Lamb in the lineup. Lamb has played in just six games this season, but he has already proved to be one of the most talented players in the conference. Lamb has scored 16 points or more in five of his six games, and the 49ers are 4-2 as a team when he is on the court.

UC-Santa Barbara is 0-4 ATS in their last four games, and they are up against a 49ers team that is 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. The Gauchos are a team that relies heavily on their ability to force turnovers, and that is a battle they will lose against Long Beach State. The 49ers are committing just 12 turnovers per game, a number that is much better than it seems when you look at the teams they have faced this season. Santa Barbara is 30-52 ATS during the Bob Williams era against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or less turnovers per game after 15 or more games.

3* No Doubt Rout on Belmont +

The oddsmakers have favored the wrong team in this game. Belmont has played a tough schedule, and they have several quality wins this season. The biggest win of the year game on the road against then ranked No. 12 North Carolina. The Bruins extremely difficult non-conference schedule has them well prepared coming into Ohio Valley Conference play. They have won three of their four conference games by a double-digit margin.

Belmont has several key statistical advantages in this matchup. They are a superb shooting team, making over 50 percent of their shot attempts from the field. The Bruins average 80.5 points per game overall, and their production is barely slowed down on the road averaging 78.9 points per game. The Colonels have been soft on defense this year surrendering an average of 69.4 points per game. That is a very poor number considering their opponents offensive average is just 69.9 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Belmont. You should play on road underdogs like the Bruins in a game involving two teams shooting 36.5 percent or better on three point attempts after 15 or more games, after two straight games making 50 percent or more of their three point shots. This system is 41-13 (76%) against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Alabama -

I don't think Mississippi State is as good as their 11-4 record would indicate. The Bulldogs may be coming off their biggest win of the season when they beat Ole Miss, but the Rebels were without their best player in that game. They face a Crimson Tide team that has done a great job of protecting their home court with a 7-2 record in those nine games.

When you look at the Bulldogs schedule it is easy to see why they are overrated. They have not played many quality teams, and the good teams they have played have handed Mississippi State some pretty embarrassing losses. In fact, all four of the Bulldogs losses have come by a double-digit margin. In their only two traditional road games this year they were defeated by an average of 20.2 points.

The Bulldogs are 3-13 ATS over the last two seasons as an underdog of 10 points or more. They are also 1-9 ATS against good shooting teams that are making 45 percent or more of their attempts. Alabama is averaging 48.8 percent from the field at home, and defensively the Crimson Tide have surrendered just 60.9 points in those games. Mississippi State on the other hand is allowing 76.4 points per game when playing on the road. All signs point to a blowout win for Alabama.

4* MAC Game of the Week on Bowling Green -

The Falcons have lost four straight, and I think that has forced the oddsmakers to set this line much lower than it should be. All four of those losses were very close games and came against opponents that share a combined 42-26 record this season. Central Michigan comes into this game with a 3-6 record against the spread, and the Chippewas are outmatched in several key categories.

Bowling Green is a very strong team defensively. They have the 32nd ranked scoring defense in college basketball, and they have held opponents to an average of just 63 points per game. When playing at home they have been even better, surrendering just 60.4 points per game. I don't think the Falcons will have any problems getting points on the board against the Chippewas. Central Michigan's defense has allowed an average of 76.7 points per game when playing on the road.

Bowling Green is 9-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in two straight games. The Chippewas have a 3-11 ATS record against good defensive teams that are allowing a shooting percentage of 42 percent or less after 15 or more games. I think home court advantage plays a big factor in this game since Central Michigan has played so poorly on the road, and the Falcons should make easy work of the Chippewas.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Temple +

The Temple Owls are a much better team than their 5-9 record indicates. Of those nine losses only one has come by a margin greater than 10 points. The Owls took a very talented Texas team to overtime and lost by a single point, and that is just one of many close games played by Temple. The Owls are a young team, but they are very close to turning the corner and winning some of those close games.

Scoring points should not be an issue for Temple. The Owls come into this game averaging 77.5 points per game. They face a Bearcats team that is averaging 71.5 points per game, so Temple definitely has a scoring advantage in this matchup. The Owls have also been a very good ball control team. They average just 10 turnovers per game this season and that will be a big factor since Cincinnati relies heavily on their ability to force turnovers to win games.

You should play against favorites of 10 points or more like Cincinnati when they are coming off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a loss by 10 points or less to a conference rival. This system is 69-32 (68%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Temple is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that has a winning record at home, and that is a trend that should continue against Cincinnati tonight.

3* Big Sky Game of the Week on Southern Utah +

We are getting a lot of value on Southern Utah at home in this matchup with Northern Arizona. The Lumberjacks have covered the spread in four of their last six games, while the Thunderbirds have a 2-9 ATS record this season. I think those records have caused the oddsmakers have severely over compensate for this game.

Statistically Northern Arizona and Southern Utah are very even. The Lumberjacks are averaging 63.9 points per game on the road while surrendering an average of 72.6 points per game in those matchups. That is very comparable to Southern Utah's 61 points scored per game and 75.5 points surrendered per game when playing at home. Both teams also average similar numbers in turnovers. It is the Thunderbirds that have an advantage from the free throw line making 82 percent of their attempts at home, while the Lumberjacks average 71.9 percent from the line when playing on the road.

Northern Arizona has not performed well on the road this season. They have a 2-8 record in their 10 road games, with both of those wins coming against teams with a losing record. The only blowout win the Lumberjacks have this season came San Diego Christian College, a weak opponent from the Golden State Athletic Conference. The only reason they are coming into this matchup with more wins than the Thunderbirds is because of their incredibly soft schedule.

Southern Utah has won the last two meetings between these teams both straight up and against the spread. This will be the first time all season that the Thunderbirds have played back-to-back home games, and I think they will get a big boost in production not having to travel between games. Northern Arizona is 2-11 ATS when coming off a home game and 12-25 ATS when they faced a conference opponent in their previous matchup. This game should be close, and I expect the Thunderbirds to be in a position to win this game in the end.

4* No Brainer on Marist +

I don't think Manhattan is as good as their 11-3 record, and they should struggle to cover such a large spread against this underrated Marist team. The Red Foxes got off to a slow start to the season, but they have really turned things around recently winning five of their last six games. The Jaspers will have to cover this number without their leading scorer George Beamon who is out with a shoulder injury. Beamon averages over 20 points per game and 6.6 rebounds per game, so his production will certainly be missed.

Marist has a very underrated defense. They are allowing 70.1 points per game, but that has come against opponents whose scoring average is over 72 points per game. The Jaspers on the other hand have allowed 71 points per game against opponents whose scoring average is only 69.8 points per game. To win by a double-digit margin you have to dominate in the key statistical categories. Manhattan has proved to be a poor rebounding team, especially when playing at home. They have a -5 figure for rebounding margin in home games which is another indicator that the Jaspers are overrated.

This matchup fits into a system to play on road underdogs of 10 points or more, like Marist, when they are revenging a home loss against an opponent, and they are playing their second road game in three days. This system is 121-72 (63%) against the spread over the last five seasons. When these teams met earlier this year the Jaspers had Beamon in the lineup and won by 11 points. Without him I don't think they will even come close to that number. In their last game against Quinnipiac, Beamon played just five minutes and Manhattan ended up losing the game straight up and against the spread. Adjusting to Beamon's absence is going to take some time before the Jaspers can get things back on track. In the mean time we will take the points with Marist.

3* Oddsmakers Error on SIU-Edwardsville +

This line is quite a bit larger than it should be for two evenly matched teams. The Cougars are averaging 71.4 points per game, which is right in line with Tennessee Tech at 73.2 points per game. The Golden Eagles have definitely faced the softer schedule with their opponents surrendering an average of 74.2 points per game on the season.

It is the same story on the defensive end of the court. Tennessee Tech's opponents have only averaged 69.6 points per game, and defensively the Golden Eagles have surrendered 69.6 points per game. The Cougars on the other hand have faced a schedule where their opponents average 74.2 points per game, and I think their stronger schedule will have them well prepared for this conference road game against the Golden Eagles.

Tennessee Tech is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games when coming off a win. I think that trend continues in this game because Edwardsville is a much better team than this line is indicating. They are evenly matched in turnovers, and when you factor in strength of schedule these teams are also even in scoring and in points surrendered this season. I think both of these teams have a legitimate chance to win the game, and getting spotted this many points is simply too good to pass up.

5* C-USA Game of the Year on Florida Int. +

This is simply too many points for the Golden Panthers to be receiving in today's matchup against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. The Panthers are averaging 73.6 points per game this season, and they should easily be able to keep pace with the Bulldogs in scoring. Defensively Louisiana Tech has been decent, but I don't think they are as good as the numbers their statistics tell thanks to a very soft schedule.

The Bulldogs offensive numbers are also artificially inflated. Their opponents have allowed an average of almost 77 points per game, which makes the Panthers one of the better defensive teams Louisiana Tech has faced this season. Florida International has played well on the road this year, and I like their chances to keep this game within single-digits against the Bulldogs.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the Golden Panthers. You should play against favorites like Louisiana Tech when they are coming off a win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, and they have won 80 percent or more of their games on the season and are playing against a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of its games like Florida International. This system is 36-11 (77%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Long Beach State -

The Long Beach State 49ers have played a very tough schedule, so I won't hold their 4-11 record against them. Besides, Cal Davis is not coming into this game with a record that looks any better at 5-11 on the season. The 49ers have faced six teams that are currently ranked, or have been ranked at one point this season.

The Aggies have been horrible this year. They are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall, which includes a 1-6 ATS record in their last seven road games. UC-Davis is also 0-1 in conference play, and 0-4 ATS against Big West opponents dating back to last season. The 49ers on the other hand have posted a 6-2 ATS record in their last eight games against teams winning 40 percent of their games or less.

This game should end up being a blowout in favor of Long Beach State. The UC-Davis defense has surrendered 78.7 points per game overall and 83 points per game when playing on the road. The Aggies have not done a very good job of scoring points on the road to keep those games close. They are scoring 69 points per game and have a 2-7 record in road games this season. Their average margin of defeat in those matchups is over 14 points.

4* Summit League Game of the Week on S. Dakota +

This game has blowout written all over it. The Coyotes are averaging 86 points per game at home this season and they have a 4-1 record in those games. Denver on the other hand comes into this matchup averaging a mere 62.2 points per game when playing on the road. The Pioneers also have a 3-6 record in road games this season.

South Dakota is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Summit League opponents. The Coyotes are not a small home dog very often, but when they are they have been a great team to back. South Dakota is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of six points or less over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Denver Pioneers have a 17-34 ATS record when playing on the road after two consecutive non-conference games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system that favors South Dakota. You should play against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Denver after allowing 60 points or less when they are playing against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more two straight games. This system is a 34-12 (74%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Fairfield +

The Stags are a much better team than their 3-12 record indicates, and I like their chances to play a close game with Iona. The Gaels have a losing record of 6-7 this year, and they have lost five of their last six coming into this game. Fairfield may not be winning games either, but they are coming off a close matchup with St. Peters and their confidence has to be high knowing they are facing an Iona team allowing over 80 points per game on the season.

Fairfield has played well defensively this season. They are holding opponents well below their scoring average, allowing just 68.9 points per game. They have allowed those opponents to shoot just 39.8 percent from the field. The Stags are holding their own on the boards, pulling in 36 rebounds per game, and that will be a big advantage over the Gaels who are pulling in a mere 32 rebounds per game and have a -7 figure in rebounding margin.

This matchup fits into a system to play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Fairfield when they have lost three of their last four games and have a win percentage of 20 percent or less on the season when they are playing a team with a losing record. This system is 29-7 (81%) against the spread. The Stags should be able to compete with the Gaels, and I think they will keep this game very close.

4* No Brainer on Marquette +

I don't think another team in the country has played as difficult of a schedule as the Marquette Golden Eagles. They may have six losses already, but those six opponents have a combined 80-10 record this season. Five of those six teams are currently ranked, or have been ranked at one point in the year. That hasn't stopped the Golden Eagles from playing in some very close games, and I expect the same result in this matchup with Xavier.

Marquette is holding opponents to 61.5 points per game this season. They are easily one of the best defensive teams in the Big East, and they should have no problem shutting down the Musketeers. Xavier is on a seven game win streak, and that has the oddsmakers giving them way too much credit. In the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams the Golden Eagles have a 4-1 ATS record.

This game fits into a very profitable system to make a play on Marquette. You should play against a favorite like Xavier when coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival when they have won 80 percent or more of their games on the season and they are facing a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of their games. This system identifies teams being overvalued by the oddsmakers, and it is resulted in a 94-55 (63%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UL-Monroe +

Texas Arlington is coming off back-to-back upset losses as a favorite. ULM on the other hand is off an upset win as an underdog, and I think the Warhawks are the better team in this matchup. They have played a tough schedule this year facing two teams ranked in the top 10, as well as very difficult road games against LSU and Ole Miss.

ULM should have no problem getting points on the board in this game since they face on of the worst defenses in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mavericks are allowing an average of 80 points per game this season against opponents whose scoring average is only 72.8 points per game. I think ULM is a much better team than they appear statistically. The Warhawks have allowed 73.4 points per game, but their opponents offensive average is 78.2 points per game.

Texas-Arlington is 1-9 ATS in home games after playing a game at home in their previous outing. They are also 4-12 ATS after playing a game as a favorite over the last two seasons. The Warhawks on the other hand are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 6-2 ATS when coming off a performance scoring more than 90 points. Louisiana-Monroe is the better team, and they should play a good game against Texas-Arlington with a chance to pull off the upset in the end.

3* No Doubt Rout on Missouri State PICK

This is a very lopsided matchup, and I think this line is giving Bradley far too much credit for playing on their home court. At 11-3 on the season Missouri State is easily the better team in this game. They average 10 points per game more than the Braves, and I don

4* Heavy Hitter on Providence +

The Hoyas have not lived up to the hype this season. They have three losses, and have yet to play a good game against a talented team. Their win over VCU is not that impressive since the Rams have also played a soft schedule and they have a bad loss to UNI this year. Providence on the other hand has played several close games against good teams. Their loss to Villanova was hard to swallow, but the Friars were playing in a letdown spot after dropping back-to-back games in overtime against their last two opponents.

The Friars may have five losses on the season, but those five opponents have a combined 55-16 record. They have played three ranked opponents this year, so their difficult schedule should have them well prepared to play host against the overrated Hoyas. I don

3* Oddsmakers Error on St Peter's +

This matchup has upset written all over it. Fairfield is simply put, a bad team this year. Their 3-11 record is quite embarrassing considering they have played a fairly soft schedule. The biggest problem for the Stags is a lack of scoring options. They are averaging 60.9 points per game this year, and shooting a mere 38.1 percent from the field. That is a big issue when your defense is allowing almost 70 points per game.

St Peters has several key statistical advantages in this game. The Peacocks have been a much better ball control team, averaging just 13 turnovers per game to 15 from the Stags. They are also averaging 66.5 points per game on the road with 43.1 percent shooting from the field. The biggest advantage in this game will come on the free throw line. The Stags have a very serious issue with getting into foul trouble. They average 25 personal fouls per game, and they won

4* Heavy Hitter on TCU +

I am not buying in to Kansas State's recent run. They have a win over Oklahoma State, but they had the luxury of playing host in that game. I think coming off a signature victory like that puts the Wildcats in a letdown spot tonight against a very underrated TCU team. The Horned Frogs have a respectable 9-4 overall record this year, and they have been a great team to back against the spread with a 5-2 record.

Kansas State is not a high scoring team, and I think they will struggle to cover this spread because of it. They have averaged just 64 points per game on the road this season, and they face a TCU team that is averaging over 74 points per game at home. The Horned Frogs defense has also been solid, allowing just 66.4 points per game against much better scoring teams than the Wildcats.

The Kansas State Wildcats have been a great team to fade on the road. They are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games, and 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 road games following three or more consecutive home games. I expect them to have a very poor showing tonight without the comfort and support of their fan base. Kansas State has the worst offense in the Big 12, ranking last in overall shooting percentage and on three point attempts.

4* Southern Conf. Game of the Week on Appalachian State +

The Mountaineers have Jay Canty back in the lineup, and the prolific scorer adds a lot of value on Appalachian State after the team put up poor numbers without him. He was second in scoring his first game back, and with Canty in the lineup Appalachian State has four players averaging double-digits in scoring. They face an Elon team that ranks 254th in rebounding with just 33.9 per game. The Mountaineers on the other hand rank 60th in the NCAA with 38.8 rebounds per game.

Elon comes into this matchup having lost four of their last six games. They are playing with a single day of rest coming off a road game against Western Carolina in their last outing. The Phoenix are allowing 74.1 points per game this year, and their poor defense puts them at a large disadvantage as such a large double-digit favorite. I don't see a scenario where Elon is able to win this game by 15 points with their poor defense and a large rebounding disadvantage.

I don't think Elon will get much benefit from home court advantage in this game. The Mountaineers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams that have won 60 percent or more of their home games. The Phoenix come into this game with a 4-11 ATS record in their last 15 games. Elon is also 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against Southern Conference opponents. Appalachian State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head meetings with Elon, including a 4-1 ATS record when the Phoenix are at home.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Providence +

After getting off to a fast start things have begun to cool off for Villanova. They suffered a 16 point loss against Syracuse and then had to rely on overtime to squeak past Butler by three points in their last two games. It would have been the Wildcats second consecutive loss if not for an unforced turnover from the Bulldogs. It appears the oddsmakers have continued to overvalue Villanova by listing them as a double-digit favorite against a very talented Providence team. The Friars have a 10-4 record this season, and they have played some very respectable games against good opponents.

The Friars four losses have come against Maryland, Kentucky, UMass and Seton Hall. It took overtime for the latter two to get past Providence, and all four of these teams have a combined 42-14 record this season. It is the Friars defense that has afforded them so much success this year. They are holding opponents to a mere 62.7 points per game on the road, and will easily be one of the tougher defenses the Wildcats have faced. Villanova struggled in their matchup against the stingy Orange defense, and I think getting challenged by a big physical team like the Friars will make it hard for the Wildcats to win by such a large margin in this matchup.

Villanova is 14-36 ATS after playing two consecutive games on the road. This matchup also fits into a very profitable system backing the Friars. You should play against a team like Villanova that has covered the spread in six of their last eight games when they have won over 80 percent of their games on the season and they are facing a good team that has won 60 to 80 percent of their games. This system is 121-68 (64%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on USC +

It seems very unlikely the Bruins will be able to cover a double-digit line like this one against a conference rival like USC. The Trojans are not a bad team, and they come into this game with a 9-4 overall record. They have impressive victories over Boston College and Xavier this season, and their four losses have come against teams with a combined 37-17 record. The Bruins on the other hand have a win over Alabama in their last game, a team with a losing record on the year, and losses against every other good team they have faced from a major conference.

Keeping pace with UCLA should be a relatively easy task for the Trojans to accomplish. The Bruins are allowing a tenth of a point under 70 points per game this year. The Trojans should finish this game with more shot attempts thanks to advantages in rebounding and their ability to draw fouls. USC is +5 in rebounding margin, and they have done a great job pulling in rebounds on the offensive glass. They also average 27 free throw attempts per game, and getting the Bruins in foul trouble is a huge advantage since UCLA lacks talented depth this season. The Bruins have two players on the bench that have seen a significant number of minutes, and neither have been a big scoring threat.

The Trojans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, and I think the oddsmakers have undervalued this team for a sixth consecutive game. The Bruins are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against a team winning over 60 percent of their games, and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against any team with a winning record. The Bruins have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games, and I like that trend to continue in this matchup against a very underrated Trojans team.

4* Double Digit Bloodbath on Boise State -

The Broncos should have no problem picking up a big double-digit victory against their conference rival. Fresno State has been horrible defensively this season, allowing an average of 80.2 points per game when playing on the road. That is not a good sign for the Bulldogs since they are facing a Boise State team that is averaging 87.3 points per game at home this season.

Boise State has three very respectable losses this season. They were on the road against Kentucky, lost a close game to St Mary

5* Non-Conference Game of the Week on Northeastern +

These teams are basically identical statistically, with a few key advantages for the Huskies. Northeastern has been a better rebounding team on the offensive glass, with a +2 rebounding margin on that end of the court. The Commodores on the other hand come into this game with a -2 figure in offensive rebounding margin when playing at home. The Huskies have also been a better ball control team averaging 14 turnovers per game.

The statistical advantages are actually much better than they appear on paper. Northeastern has played a much stronger strength of schedule, so the fact that they are putting up such comparable numbers to Vanderbilt tells me the Huskies are actually the better team. Northeastern has close losses against some very good opponents, while the Commodores have been blown out by good teams and they have played in some very close games against bad teams.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Huskies. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Northeastern when they are coming off a loss by six points or less, and playing against an opponent that is coming off a game with a combined score of 110 points or less. This system is 65-32 (67%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Big 12 No Brainer on Texas -

In a battle of 11-2 teams I think it is the home team that has the biggest advantage. Texas has played a much stronger strength of schedule, and their 8-2 record at home cannot be ignored. The Longhorns are averaging 78.3 points per game this year, but it is their defense that gives them the advantage over the Sooners. They have held opponents to a mere 66.1 points per game at home this season, while Oklahoma is allowing 77.8 points per game overall.

Texas also has a huge advantage on the boards. They are +8 in rebounding margin, led by Cameron Ridley with 7.2 rebounds per game. Ridley is also a defensive force averaging 2.4 blocks per game which also leads his team. He is a very athletic player that will be a matchup nightmare for the Sooners. Oklahoma lacks a physical presence in the paint and it has shown against the few talented teams they have faced. They have also had serious turnover problems in those games.

The Texas Longhorns are 19-8 ATS in home games when coming off a blowout win of 20 points or more at home. The Longhorns are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning record on the road. The Sooners have a history of struggling against Texas. They are 2-8 in the last 10 head-to-head games against the Longhorns when playing in Texas.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Manhattan -

This game should be a lot more lopsided than the oddsmakers expect. The Jaspers are a very good team, indicated by their 10-2 record this season. Fairfield on the other hand has a 3-10 record, and they have struggled to cover several double-digit lines this season. The Stags have lost by double-digits in three of their last five games.

Manhattan is averaging 77.5 points per game this season. That gives them just over a 16 point advantage over a Stags team that is averaging 61.2 points per game. Fairfield has been a horrible shooting team, averaging 37.2 percent from the field on the road. They also have a negative figure in rebounding margin, and have been turnover prone at times. Manhattan on the other hand is +2 in rebounding margin and averaging just 13 turnovers per game when playing at home.

Fairfield is 3-12 ATS when coming off a road loss, and they are 0-6 ATS when coming off a road loss against a conference opponent. Manhattan comes into this game with a 17-5 ATS record after covering the spread in two of their last three games. The Jaspers are also 35-19 ATS after four or more consecutive wins. The Stags are a very bad team, and I do not give them much chance to keep this game even remotely close against the Jaspers.

4* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia +

The Cavaliers are one of the best defensive teams in basketball, and I think that gives them a big advantage over Florida State in this game. Virginia has held opponents to 56.7 points per game this year, and I do not see a matchup on the court that indicates Florida State has any chance at matching their 77 point per game average. Virginia is a very good team, and after a few games of failing to cover the spread while Florida State has been easily covering the spread I think the oddsmakers have over corrected.

Florida State does not do a lot of scoring from the outside. They average just 13 three point attempts per game, and I like the matchup advantages for the Cavaliers big men in this game. The Cavaliers also have the depth that Florida State is lacking. They have eight players averaging over 15 minutes per game, and I think the constantly fresh legs on the court will be another big advantage in Virginia

4* Hidden Gem on North Texas -

North Texas comes into this matchup against UC-Riverside with a 6-2 record at home. The Highlanders on the other hand have struggled on the road with a 1-5 record. I think there is a big talent gap between Conference USA and the Big West, so the fact that the Mean Green are laying a single-digit number in this game tells me there is a lot of value on the home team.

North Texas has a huge scoring advantage over Riverside in this game. The Mean Green are averaging 74.4 points per game at home, while the Highlanders have averaged a mere 60.3 points per game on the road. When you look at the schedules for both of these teams it is easy to see that UC-Riverside is a very bad team. They have yet to play a decent opponent, and they still come into this game with a 5-8 overall record.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing North Texas. You should play against an underdog like UC-Riverside when they are coming off a home win by 10 points or more, and are playing against an opponent off an upset win as a road underdog of 12 points or more. This system is 24-4 (86%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on St. Josephs -

I think home court advantage plays a big factor in this matchup since Denver is traveling over 1,700 miles to get to this game. The Pioneers have struggled on the road this year posting a 3-5 record. They are scoring a mere 63.5 points in those games. That is not a good sign since they have played a soft schedule and are surrendering 65.9 points per game when playing on the road.

St. Josephs may not have an outstanding record at 8-4, but they have played a very tough schedule. Their losses have come against Creighton, LSU, Temple and Villanova, four teams that have a combined 37-11 record. They have won four consecutive games coming into this matchup so I expect their confidence to be high for this matchup with the Pioneers.

Denver has a 5-13 ATS record in their last 18 non-conference games. They are also 4-14 ATS in road games after two straight games getting called for five or more fouls than their opponents. St Josephs is 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games against a team with a losing record on the road, and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. I think the Hawks come to play in this one, and easily pick up a win over the Pioneers.

3* Sun Belt Oddsmakers Error on Western Kentucky -

This is a very small line for a good team like Western Kentucky to cover. The Hilltoppers have played a very strong schedule, and they come into this game with a 9-5 record. They have faced two ranked opponents this season, and are no stranger to playing on the road since this will be the seventh road game of the season for Western Kentucky.

Four of the Trojans eight losses have come by a double-digit margin. They average just 66.5 points per game this season, and have a -2 figure in rebounding margin. That puts them at a big disadvantage against the Hilltoppers who are +4 in rebounding margin, and they are pulling in an average of 13 offensive rebounds per game when playing on the road.

I think Western Kentucky

5* Big East Game of the Month on St. Johns +

Georgetown might be one of the most overrated teams in the Big East this season. They come into this matchup against St. Johns with a 9-3 record, suffering losses at the hands of Oregon, Northeastern and Kansas. That may not seem all that bad at first glance, but those games were not even close. Their most recent loss to Kansas came by 22 points. Even their wins have been less than impressive. They won at home against Colgate by a mere six points, and they are coming off a home win by seven points against a very bad DePaul team.

I think St. Johns will be the hungry team in this game after suffering a road loss earlier this week at the hands of Xavier. The Red Storm have played two ranked teams, staying within five points of No. 2 ranked Syracuse last month. Their four losses have come against teams with a combined record of 47-8. Their difficult schedule should have them well prepared to take on this overrated Hoyas team. The Red Storm have two key statistical advantages. They are a better rebounding team averaging 38 boards per game, with 10 of those coming on the offensive glass, and they are a better ball control team with just 10 turnovers per game this year.

St Johns is 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. They are also 25-12 ATS in road games when coming off a road loss. Georgetown on the other hand has posted a 15-32 ATS record in home games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite. The Hoyas have failed to meet oddsmaker

3* No Doubt Rout on Hawaii -

Home court advantage will be big for Hawaii since this is such a dramatic time change for Nebraska-Omaha. Combine that with the fact that the Warriors are an underrated team this season and we have the makings for a blowout in this game. Hawaii comes into this matchup with a 10-3 overall record, and they are 8-1 against the spread. The oddsmakers have not been able to set the bar high enough for this team that is averaging 82.4 points per game.

The biggest advantage Hawaii has in this matchup is their outstanding defensive play. Nebraska-Omaha has played a soft schedule this year with the exception of their road game against Minnesota. I think their offensive numbers are very inflated, and they will struggle to put up points against this Warriors team that has held opponents to 67.5 points per game at home. The Nebraska-Omaha defense has been soft on the road, allowing opponents to score 79.6 points per game.

The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record. The Warriors on the other hand are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 5-1 in their last six non-conference games. The Warriors have dominated the rebounding margin this season while Nebraska-Omaha is -2 in that category when playing on the road. I expect to see Hawaii get a lot of second chance shot attempts and pick up a double-digit win over the Mavericks.

4* Heavy Hitter on Missouri State -

Missouri State is clearly the better team in this game, and I don't think Illinois State has the scoring ability to keep this matchup within five points. Missouri State averages 79.7 points per game at home this season, and they have a perfect 7-0 record. Illinois State has struggled on the road with a 3-3 record, and their defense has been horrible in those games allowing 78.5 points per game.

Defensively Missouri State is a very solid team. They are holding opponents to 65.9 points per game at home, and keeping Illinois State in check should be an easy task to accomplish. The Redbirds are averaging just 40 percent from the field this season. Illinois State has also been a very poor rebounding team, and they have major issues with getting into foul trouble.

The Redbirds are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. They face a Missouri State Bears team that is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games against Missouri Valley Conference opponents. The Bears are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. The Bears are far too talented to allow Illinois State to keep this game close, and I think Missouri State picks up a big win in this game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Eastern Illinois +

I think the home team has a big advantage in this game, especially as such a large underdog. The Panthers are a much better team than their 4-8 record indicates. They have played well at home this year posting a 3-2 record against a decent strength of schedule. The Panthers are a strong team defensively, holding opponents to just 66.6 points per game at home.

Eastern Kentucky has been a horrible rebounding team. They are -6 in rebounding margin, and I think they have benefited from a very soft schedule this year. The Colonels have played some very close games against weak opponents, and they should struggle with the Panthers in this matchup. Eastern Kentucky is allowing over 70 points per game on the road this year, and all four of their losses have come in road games.

The Colonels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games when coming off a win by more than 20 points. Eastern Kentucky just played one of the worst teams in college basketball, and I think they will struggle against a much stronger team like Eastern Illinois.

3* No Doubt Rout on Akron -

Akron should have no problem picking up a double-digit win in this game against Marshall. The Thundering Herd have been terrible defensively, allowing an average of 85.8 points per game. Marshall is yet to win a game on the road this season at 0-6, and they have a 1-4 record against the spread in those games.

Akron comes into this came averaging 77.2 points per game at home. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in those games, and have played phenomenal defense. The Zips are holding opponents to a mere 61.8 points per game at home this year. They have also been a solid rebounding team, and I don't see how Marshall will be able to keep this game close when they lose the battle on the boards.

Akron is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams winning less than 40 percent of their games on the road. The Thundering Herd come into this game with a 3-12 ATS record in their last 15 games played as a road underdog. With Akron's high powered offensive attack, and their outstanding defensive play there is no way a 5-8 team like Marshall should be able to keep this game close on the road.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Old Dominion +

William and Mary may score a lot of points, but they have yet to face a team with as strong of a defense as Old Dominion. The Monarchs have held opponents to 65.8 points per game this season, and they have done so against opponents whose offensive scoring average is over 71 points per game. The Tribe have averaged 72.6 points per game which is slightly more than the Monarchs, but their opponents have surrendered 72.7 points per game this year.

Another big advantage for the Monarchs is their outstanding rebounding ability. They are +3 in rebounding margin while the Tribe are -1 on the boards. William and Mary has been a very soft team defensively, allowing over 71 points per game. Their soft defense is just what Old Dominion needs to see in order to boost their scoring average over 64.8 points per game. The Monarchs may not score a lot of points, but that has not stopped them from posting a 4-2 ATS record on the road this season.

William and Mary is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against C-USA opponents. They are also 10-25 ATS in their last 36 home games against a team with a losing record. Old Dominion comes into this game with a 4-1 ATS record in their last five road games against a team with a winning record at home. This is a non-conference game, so I don

4* Heavy Hitter on College of Charleston +

The Charleston Cougars are a much better team than their 6-7 record indicates. They are a strong rebounding team, and that will give them a big advantage over Davidson in this matchup. The Davidson Wildcats are -5 in rebounding margin, while the Cougars are have a +4 figure in that area. The advantages for Charleston do not end on the boards. They are also very good at staying out of foul trouble, which means Davidson will not be able to get their typical 16 points per game from the free throw line.

Davidson is a very weak team defensively. They have allowed an average of 81.7 points per game, and even with the added benefit of playing at home they are giving up over 72 points per game. Meanwhile, Charleston comes into this game holding opponents to just 62.8 points per game overall, and 60.3 points per game when playing on the road. Davidson has a 4-9 record this season, and they are 1-2 in home games. That only home victory came against a team that is not even in NCAA division one basketball.

Charleston has been a great team to back on the road. They are 59-29 ATS as a road underdog since 1997. They are also 57-33 ATS after two consecutive non-conference games. Charleston is also 27-12 ATS in road games against teams that average 33 or less rebounds per game. Davidson comes into this matchup with a 1-4 ATS record in their last five home games. I think Charleston has a very good chance to pull off the upset in this game, but since they are on the road we will take the points.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Marquette +

The oddsmakers are giving way too much respect to Creighton in this game. Marquette may have five losses on the season, but all of them have come against very respectable opponents, and only one of those five losses came by a double-digit margin. I don

4* Vegas Insider on North Texas +

The Texas A&M Aggies are nowhere near as good as their 8-3 record would indicate. They have played an incredibly soft schedule, and now that they are facing more division one opponents, they have lost three of their last five games. They are coming off a 12 point neutral court loss to an Oklahoma team that is one of the most overrated squads in college basketball. The Aggies have yet to pick up a quality win this season, and I expect them to struggle with North Texas in this game.

The Mean Green are an outstanding rebounding team, and that gives them a huge advantage over the Aggies. North Texas averages 42 rebounds per game, with 11 coming on the offensive glass. They have also been a great ball control team with a mere 13 turnovers per game. The extra rebounds and their ability to avoid turnovers has resulted in an average of over 60 shot attempts per game. Those extra attempts over the Aggies should ensure that this game stays well within the point range we are being spotted in this matchup.

The Mean Green are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team winning 60 percent of their games or more. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games when coming off three or more consecutive games at home. The Aggies on the other hand have a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 games against C-USA opponents, and they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a winning record.

4* Heavy Hitter on San Francisco +

With Dower and Bell both out for Gonzaga, there is a lot of value on San Francisco as such a large underdog in this game. The Dons have a very respectable 8-5 record this season, and their offense should have no problem keeping pace with the Bulldogs. San Francisco is averaging 81.9 points per game this season, shooting over 51 percent from the field. They are also a great ball control team committing just 13 turnovers per game.

This biggest weakness for San Francisco has been their defense. They catch a huge break since Dower and Bell will not be in the lineup. The two combined for 26.5 points per game for the Bulldogs, and are second and third on the team in scoring. The biggest hit may not be a loss of points for Gonzaga, but their advantage on the boards instead. Dower is second on the team in rebounds with 6.8 per game, and against a physical team like the Dons I have to believe the rebounding margin swings heavily in San Francisco's favor.

The Dons are 46-17 against the spread against West Coast Conference opponents, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games against a team with a winning record at home. Gonzaga comes into this game having lost four of their last five against the spread. The Bulldogs are also 0-6 ATS in home games when coming off two straight games with nine or less offensive rebounds. With the key injuries suffered by Gonzaga there is simply too much value on San Francisco to pass up.

4* Vegas Insider on Western Kentucky +

The Ole Miss Rebels have been struggling recently dropping three of their last five games. I expect them to struggle once again today against a Western Kentucky team that has won four of their last five games. The Hilltoppers are coming off a 100+ point performance, so confidence should be high for tonight's matchup with the Rebels.

The greatest strength for this Western Kentucky team is a defense that has held opponents to a mere 59.9 points per game. The biggest reason for their success this season has been the Hilltoppers ability to out rebound their opponents. Western Kentucky is +4 in rebounding margin in home games this year, and they are not allowing many second chance opportunities on the offensive glass from their opponents.

The Ole Miss Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record. The Hilltoppers come into this matchup with a 5-1 ATS record in their last six games against a team winning 60 percent or more of their games on the season. They are also 19-9 ATS in their last 28 home games. I think the physical play in the paint from Western Kentucky gets them the win at home in this matchup.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Portland -

The Portland Pilots have been a great team to back against the spread this year, and I think the oddsmakers have once again undervalued them in today's matchup with Santa Clara. The Broncos have not fared well against the spread this season, posting a 2-6 record in comparison to a 10-3 ATS record from the Pilots. Santa Clara has averaged a mere 64.6 points per game when playing on the road, and with numbers like that I expect them to struggle keeping pace with this Portland team that has averaged 81.4 points per game at home this season.

Santa Clara has played a very soft schedule this season, yet they are still being dominated on the boards. The Broncos have a negative number in rebounding margin, and when playing on the road they have been outrebound by six per game. They also have a poor pressure defense, forcing just 12 turnovers per game on the road. The Pilots on the other hand, come into this game with a positive figure in rebounding margin, and they average seven steals and five blocks per game at home. They are a solid unit defensively, and should have no problem covering a single digit spread against the Broncos.

This matchup fits into a system to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Portland when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 76 points per game or more, and they are facing an average defensive team that has allowed 67-74 points per game, when coming off a matchup with a combined score of 165 points or more. This system is 53-18 (75%) against the spread over the last five seasons. If that is not enough, the Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against West Coast Conference opponents, while the Pilots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Missouri State -

SE Missouri State has been very inconsistent this year, and I don

4* No Brainer on College of Charleston -

The College of Charleston may not have a great overall record, but that is because they have played an extremely difficult schedule this season. The Cougars have faced the likes of Louisville, Miami, San Diego State, and Arizona State this year, while the Citadel have played just two mediocre opponents in Tennessee and Nebraska with both games resulting in 20+ point losses. The Cougars difficult schedule will make the Citadel look like a practice squad in this game.

The Citadel Bulldogs have been a very soft team defensively. They are allowing 75.7 points per game against opponents whose offensive scoring average is only at 70.7 points per game. The Cougars on the other hand are allowing a mere 64.1 points per game and have actually played better on the road allowing just 62.8 points. Charleston

4* Heavy Hitter on UTEP -

The Miners are playing host in the Sun Bowl Invitational, and I don

3* Oddsmakers Error on Tulane +

This is a lot of points for Tulane to be receiving on a neutral court. The Green Wave come into this game with a 7-6 overall record and they have won three of their last four games. Tulane has a very significant scoring advantage over Kansas State. They average 70.8 points per game to just 66.5 points from the Wildcats. The Green Wave are also averaging one turnover per game less than the Wildcats, and shooting eight percent better from the free throw line. The better shooting does not end at the free throw line. They have also made six percent more of their attempts from beyond the three point line.

The Green Wave are the better scoring team, and I just don

5* CBB Game of the Month on Seton Hall -

The Seton Hall Pirates are clearly the better team in this game. The Pirates average 79 points per game at home, and I think there is a big opportunity to score even more tonight against a Lafayette defense that has allowed an average of 76 points per game on the road. The Pirates are also a great foul drawing team, and averaging over 74 percent from the free throw line will give them another key advantage.

The Pirates should dominate the boards in this matchup. They are +2 in rebounding margin, while the Lafayette Leopards are -1. Things will not get any easier for the Leopards tonight because they will be up against Seton Hall's Gene Teague. This season Teague has five double-doubles. He averages 10.2 points per game and 9.3 rebounds. The Leopards do not have a player on the court that will be able to compete with Teague on the offensive glass, and those second chance shot attempts will be a big difference maker in this game.

This matchup fits into a system to play on home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points from a major division one conference when they are coming off a home win scoring 85 points or more and they are playing against a team from a mid-major conference. This system is 147-87 (62.8%) against the spread. Lafayette will be without their best player Seth Hinrichs who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. With Seton Hall already having a big statistical advantage over the Leopards, I can't see how Lafayette will be able to stick withing 11 points on the road against the Pirates.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Hawaii -

Hawaii is a very undervalued team laying just 4.5-points against the Beavers. They come into this matchup with an 8-3 overall record, and a 7-1 record against the spread. The Warriors have been dominant on the boards, at +6 in rebounding margin to -6 from the Beavers when playing on the road. That gives them a very significant matchup advantage over Oregon State. They also have the benefit of playing at home where they have five wins by a double-digit margin this season.

Not only are the Beavers at a disadvantage in rebounding, but they are a horrible team defensively. They have allowed 78.2 points per game on the road this season, and that is big trouble when facing a Hawaii team that has averaged over 83 points per game. The Beavers are not good at forcing turnovers, and they have a horrible perimeter defense. Hawaii is shooting just shy of 50 percent from the field at home, and they are averaging almost 37 percent from beyond the three-point line.

The Warriors have been a great team to back when playing with a single day of rest. Over the last three seasons they have a 15-6 ATS record when playing with one or less days of rest, while the Beavers come into this game with a 4-12 ATS record when coming off one or more consecutive wins. Oregon State has barely matched oddsmakers expectations this year, with their last two ATS wins coming by a margin of just 1.5 points combined. Hawaii, on the other hand, has four double-digit wins out of five games as a single-digit favorite.

4* No Brainer on IUPU-Indianapolis +

The Redhawks come into this matchup having lost their last two consecutive games. I think the loss to Memphis puts them in a letdown spot against the IUPU Jaguars today. These two teams are lot more evenly matched than their records indicate. The Jaguars have played a few bad games that make them look much worse statistically than they actually are. Their 29.5 percent shooting from the field against Marquette was an anomaly, and I expect a much stronger performance in what will be their second game of the season against SE Missouri State.

The Jaguars are a very good ball control team, and I don't think SE Missouri State can win this game by a double-digit margin without a very lopsided figure in the turnover margin. IUPU averages just 11 turnovers per game, and they have also done a great job of avoiding foul trouble. In games that end in a blowout there is almost always a clear advantage in turnovers or points from the free throw line, and the Redhawks simply won't be able to win those battles in this game.

SE Missouri State is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when coming off a loss. The last time these teams met the game was decided by just eight points back in November. This matchup falls into a system to play on road underdogs of 10 points or more when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent, and they are playing their second road game in three days. This system is 120-72 against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Fordham -

This game has blowout written all over it. Loyola has been a great team to fade this year, and it seems the oddsmakers have still not caught on to just how bad the Ramblers are this year. They have posted a 1-8 record against the spread, and they are just 1-5 straight up and against the spread when playing on the road this season. Fordham comes into this game with a 4-1 record at home, and I like them to play another outstanding game defensively against Loyola.

The Rams have a knack for stepping up their level of play in home games. They average 79.6 points per game, and on the defensive end of the court they have surrendered just 66.5 points when playing at home. Meanwhile, the Ramblers come into this game averaging just 64.8 points per game on the road. Loyola has played a very soft schedule this year, and they still cannot meet oddsmakers expectations. Fordham should be well prepared for this game after facing the likes of Syracuse and St John's already this season.

The Fordham Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a losing record, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. They are up against a Ramblers team that is coming off a 49 point performance against Northern Illinois in their last game. Loyola is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 50 points or less in their previous game. The Rams have consistently outperformed the oddsmakers expectations in non-conference play, posting an 11-4 ATS record dating back to last season and we will ride them to victory again today.

3* No Doubt Rout on UNLV -

This game has blowout written all over it. The Runnin' Rebels have been a great team to back in non-conference play posting a 6-0 ATS record in their last six games. UNLV comes into this game with one of the best defenses in college basketball, holding opponents to a mere 57 points per game on the road. They have played a tough schedule in the process, facing the likes of Illinois and Arizona.

Santa Clara is not a good team. They are scoring just 63.7 points per game on the road, and have a 1-3 record in those games. This is technically a tournament game for the Rebels, but they will be playing host in this Continental Tire Las Vegas Classic. With the backing of their home crowd I expect to see the Rebels easily pick up a double-digit win. They are an outstanding rebounding team, averaging 44 rebounds per game while allowing opponents just 39 boards per game.

Santa Clara has been a great team to fade the past few years. They have a 25-40 ATS record in all games, and they are keeping on that pace this year with a 0-5 ATS record to open the season. UNLV comes into this game with a 48-30 ATS record when playing with one or less days of rest, and they are a hot team having won four of their last five games. That lone loss was a close game on the road against Arizona, losing by just five points to arguably one of the best teams in the country. The talent gap between Santa Clara and UNLV is a big one, and it will show in this matchup.

5* Vegas Insider on DePaul +

Illinois State is clearly outmatched in this game. The Redbirds have serious rebounding issues this season, and they have also been getting into a lot of foul trouble. Those extra rebounds, as well as the extra points from the free throw line give DePaul a significant matchup advantage. The Blue Demons come into this game with a +3 figure in rebounding margin, while the Redbirds are -5 in that category. Illinois State has averaged 24 fouls per game, so expect the Blue Demons to be playing from the bonus early on.

Another factor favoring the Blue Demons is their overall strength of schedule in comparison to Illinois State. DePaul has a better record, and they have been winning games against better teams than the Redbirds. The Blue Demons have won four of their last five games coming into this matchup. Illinois State is coming off a game where they squeaked by a weak Tennessee State team, and prior to that they were crushed in a matchup with Oakland. The Redbirds have not shot above 38 percent from the field in their last two outings.

Illinois State is 10-26 in their last 36 home games against a team with a winning record. DePaul is coming off a blowout win over Houston Baptist and they are 13-4 ATS on the road when coming off a home win by 20 points or more. The Blue Demons are also 27-13 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal team that has won 51% to 60% of their games on the season. DePaul is clearly the better team, and they should have no problem picking up a win over Illinois State in this matchup.

3* Main Event on North Carolina -

The Tar Heels are clearly the better team, and they are playing like one of the best teams in the country right now. They are coming off a tough three point loss to Texas, and I think they will respond with a big performance against Davidson in this game. North Carolina is averaging 78.7 points per game at home, but they should be able to put up an even bigger number than that against this soft Davidson defense.

The Wildcats have given up an average of 83.5 points per game on the road this season. They allowed 111 points against Duke, and against a prolific scoring team like North Carolina things could get out of hand very quickly. The Tar Heels are a great rebounding team with 41 boards per game including 13 on the offensive glass. Davidson has struggled to pull in rebounds, so I expect North Carolina to get a lot of second and third chance shot attempts.

The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against ACC opponents, and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. They have struggled on the road with a 19-40 ATS record, and are 5-11 ATS against teams winning over 60% of their games. The Tar Heels on the other hand have posted an 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, and they are 22-8 ATS in home games against a team with a losing record. I expect North Carolina to pull away early and never look back.

4* Heavy Hitter on Cincinnati -

The Bearcats should easily be a double-digit favorite in this game, but we will happily take advantage of this oddsmakers oversight. Cincinnati has two very respectable losses this season, and they did a great job of responding to those back-to-back losses by winning straight up as an underdog earlier this week against Pittsburgh. Now they have the benefit of playing a traditional home game, a place where they are 7-0 straight up and 2-0 ATS this season.

Middle Tennessee is nowhere near as good as their 8-3 record indicates. They have played an extremely soft schedule and two of their three losses came by a double-digit margin. The only loss that didn't come by more than 10 points was a nine-point loss last week against Ole Miss in a game that was never as close as the final score. The Blue Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record, and they are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games.

You should play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Middle Tennessee when they average 74-78 points per game and are coming off a win by 15 points or more, and they are playing against a team that is averaging 67-74 points per game. This system identifies teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers. It has led to a 111-60 (65%) record against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Western Kentucky -

The Hilltoppers should have no problem winning this game in a blowout. They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against Ohio Valley opponents, and they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games against a team with a losing record on the road. Murray State is not a good team this year. They are 0-4 in road games, and a mere 5-5 overall this season. Western Kentucky has dominated at home with a perfect 5-0 record.

It is Western Kentucky's defense that gives them the biggest advantage in this game. They have held opponents to a mere 58 points per game at home this season. The Hilltoppers offense has struggled at times, but they will have no problem getting points on the board against a Racers defense that is allowing 77.7 points per game on the road.

The Racers have played an easy schedule in the month of December, and I think that has earned them a little too much credibility with the oddsmakers. They are 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games. They also have a long history of under performing on the road against non-conference opponents with a 31-51 ATS record. I like the Hilltoppers to pick up a double-digit victory in this game with a strong defensive performance.

3* No Doubt Rout on Kentucky -

This game has blowout written all over it. The Wildcats are coming off a tough loss to North Carolina, and they will want to respond with a big win over Belmont in this game. The Bruins are in a slump right now having lost their last two straight games. They were blown out in their last outing on the road against Denver, and there is no reason to expect a different result in this game as they face one of the best teams in the country.

It will be hard for Belmont to keep pace with this Kentucky team that averages 84.7 points per game at home this season, especially since the Wildcats defense has been very stingy by holding opponents to 60.6 points in those games. Belmont is a poor rebounding team, and that puts them at a huge disadvantage in this matchup. Kentucky averages 48 rebounds per game with 16 on the offensive glass in home games. Meanwhile, the Bruins have averaged just 30 rebounds per game on the road, with just eight of those coming as offensive rebounds.

I expect Kentucky to get a lot of second and third chance shot attempts in this game. They should pull away early and never look back in this matchup. The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 4-1 in their last five home games against a team with a winning record on the road. Belmont on the other hand is 2-10 ATS in road games against teams shooting over 45 percent on the season. Lay the points on the Wildcats because this game will be a blowout.