Sports Picks & Predictions

NCAA Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
02-25-12	LSU v. Mississippi -3.5		48-72	Win	100	6 h 20 m	Show
4* Early Annihilator on Ole Miss -3.5 Off 3 straight losses to Vandy, Kentucky and Tennessee, expect Ole Miss to bounce back strong at home against an LSU squad that has lost 5 of its last 6 on the highway. This is a game the Rebels want badly because they were embarrassed (81-55) at LSU last month. Playing at home figures to treat the Rebs better considering they have won their last 2 and 4 of their last 5 at home against the Tigers. Ole Miss is 20-6 ATS all-time under coach Kennedy in home games when matched up against a good team with a winning percentage between 60 and 80% after 15 or more games into the season. The Rebels have won these games by an average score of 75.4 to 70.7. We'll lay the points.
02-24-12	Fairfield +8 v. Iona	Top	72-77	Win	100	12 h 32 m	Show
5* NCAAB Friday Night Feast on Fairfield +8 Since losing 71-62 at home to Iona on Jan. 27, the defending MAAC champs have been on a mission. They have won 7 straight in conference play by an average of 14.4 points. This run includes an impressive 6-point home win over Manhattan and an even more impressive 17-point road win over Loyola Maryland. With a chance to pull even with Iona for first place in the league, I expect an inspired effort from the Stags this evening. The first meeting between these two was closer than the final score might lead you to believe. Despite facing a 19-point half time deficit, Fairfield rallied to pull within 4 points with 2:39 remaining. They missed their final 3 shots while the Gaels connected on 5 of 6 free throws to earn the 9-point victory. I don't see the Stags falling behind big again, which gives them an excellent opportunity to cover this generous number. Coach Sydney Johnson's teams are 14-4 ATS all-time as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. In addition, his squads are 15-5 ATS when out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent and 12-3 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss to a foe. The Stags are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the MAAC. The Gaels are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll take the points.
02-23-12	Alabama v. Arkansas -2		79-68	Loss	-110	10 h 47 m	Show
4* SEC SMASH on Arkansas -2 After suffering their first home loss in SEC play - an embarrassing 30-point setback against Florida - the Hogs will be hungry tonight. Right away one has to like the fact that plays on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 (Arkansas in this case) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) after 15+ games and after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more - are 43-14 ATS since 1997. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. In addition, Arkansas is 6-0 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Plus, the Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take the Razorbacks.
02-23-12	South Alabama v. Florida Atlantic -6	Top	79-76	Loss	-114	10 h 45 m	Show
5* Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -6 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by a 9-point loss at South Alabama earlier this month, expect FAU to roll at home tonight. The Jaguars enter having won 3 in a row in conference play, and that doesn't bode well for them. Under coach Arrow, they are just 8-18 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins and 2-9 ATS off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. It is extremely significant that FAU averages 70.1 point at home and S. Alabama gives up 71.8 points on the road. That's because the Jaguars are 0-10 ATS when they allow 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. They have lost these games by an average of 13.7 points. Lay the points.
02-22-12	Michigan State v. Minnesota +5.5		66-61	Win	100	11 h 39 m	Show
4* Big Ten SMASH on Minnesota +5.5 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and an embarrassing 16-point loss at Michigan State last month, expect Minnesota to take the Spartans down to the wire tonight. Michigan State looks to be the class of the Big Ten, but it hasn't proven it can be trusted laying points on the road. The Spartans were fortunate to win at Wisconsin and have losses at Northwestern, Michigan and Illinois. In fact, they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take the points.
02-22-12	Ohio v. Buffalo -3	Top	88-77	Loss	-105	9 h 29 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Buffalo -3 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by consecutive losses to Ohio, expect Buffalo to bounce back strong at home where it has won 7 in a row by an average of 15.3 points. Ohio has struggled on the road where it has dropped 4 of its last 5 with those 4 losses coming by an average of 8.0 points. Its lone win during this stretch came against a Northern Illinois squad that is 3-22. It is also worth noting that the Bobcats went 0-5 ATS in these games. The Bulls are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Lay the points.
02-21-12	New Mexico v. Colorado St +6		63-71	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
4* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Colorado State +6 The Rams were crushed 85-52 at New Mexico last month, but I like their chances at revenge tonight. Colorado State, which has won its last 11 at home and defeated the Lobos at home last season, is 8-1 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to opponent over the last 2 seasons. It has won these games by an average of 10.0 points. It is also worth noting that Colorado State has either won or lost by 6 points or less to the Lobos in 5 of its last 6 home games in the series. We'll take the points.
02-21-12	Kentucky v. Mississippi State +9	Top	73-64	Push	0	11 h 27 m	Show
5* SEC Game of the Week on Mississippi State +9 Off 3 consecutive defeats and with the No. 1 team in the country in town, expect maximum effort from Mississippi State this evening. Kentucky has needed overtime to win the previous two meetings between these teams, and the last seven games in the series have been decided by an average of 4.7 points. Also, Mississippi State has won 13 of its last 14 at home with the lone loss coming in overtime to Georgia. The Bulldogs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games off 2 or more consecutive road losses, winning by an average score of 73.1 to 65.6 in this situation. The Bulldogs are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll take the points.
02-19-12	South Florida v. Pittsburgh -6.5	Top	56-47	Loss	-111	12 h 11 m	Show
5* Big East Game of the Year on Pittsburgh -6.5 Extremely motivated following 3 consecutive defeats, and further fueled by a 12-point loss at South Florida last week, expect Pitt to take care of business on its home floor this evening. The Bulls haven't been the same team on the road. They are 3-9 when playing away from home this season and 6 of their 7 losses in true road games have come by 23, 28, 12, 11, 20 and 30 points. In other words, South Florida is far from immune to taking a beating on the highway. The Bulls are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Pitt is coming off a very poor showing against West Virginia in which it only scored 48 points. That sour performance will especially light a fire under the Panthers, who are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. Pound Pitt.
02-19-12	Indiana v. Iowa +4		66-78	Win	100	11 h 20 m	Show
4* Big Ten BEST BET on Iowa +4 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and an embarrassing 14-point loss at Indiana last month, expect the Hawkeyes to bounce back strong at home this evening. The Hoosiers haven't been the same team on the road where they have lost 4 of their last 5. They are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Iowa has been at its best at home where it is 11-5. The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. The fact Indiana enters off back-to-back home wins is also significant. That's because fading the Hoosiers in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins has produced a perfect 6-0 ATS record since coach Crean took the helm. The Hoosiers have lost these games by an average score of 81.9 to 66.4. The Hawks have won 4 of the last 5 meetings overall and 3 straight in Iowa City. The Hoosiers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Iowa. Take the points.
02-18-12	Kansas State +7.5 v. Baylor		57-56	Win	100	7 h 60 m	Show
4* Big 12 BEST BET on Kansas State +7.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses and a 2-point defeat to Baylor on Jan. 10, look for Kansas State to take the Bears down to the wire. The fact Baylor is coming off a SU and ATS win over Iowa State works in our favor. That's because the Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. In addition, the Wildcats are a perfect 6-0 ATS under coach Martin after playing 2 consecutive games as an underdog. They are winning by an average score of 73.2 to 60.2 in this situation. It's also worth noting that the underdog is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. We'll take the points.
02-18-12	Tennessee v. Alabama -3.5	Top	50-62	Win	100	7 h 2 m	Show
5* SEC Game of the Year on Alabama -3.5 Alabama is missing a couple key players, but I still love the Tide at home in this highly motivated spot versus a Tennessee team that is just 2-7 in true road games. Each of those 7 defeats have come by at least 4 points and have been by an average of 11.9 points. Alabama is an elite defensive team and it does an excellent job of working for good shots on the offensive end. This means you better be able to force some turnovers in order to come out on top against the Tide, especially in Tuscaloosa. The Vols only average 6 steals per game and Bama is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Grant in home games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15-plus games. The Tide have won these contests by an average score of 69.2 to 58.3. The Volunteers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Crimson Tide are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Volunteers are also just 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take the Tide.
02-18-12	Maryland Terrapins v. Virginia Cavaliers -10		44-71	Win	100	6 h 20 m	Show
4* Early Blowout on Virginia -10 Off back-to-back losses on the road to North Carolina and Clemson, expect Virginia to bounce back strong at home today. The Cavaliers are 12-1 at home where they are winning by an average of 17.5 points. Plus, the Cavs have been strong in bounce back spots going 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. The Terrapins are a poor 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the points.
02-16-12	Brigham Young v. San Francisco +5.5	Top	85-84	Win	100	12 h 55 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on San Francisco +5.5 San Francisco, which has won 7 of its last 9, has been hitting on all cylinders lately. Motivated by an embarrassing 81-56 loss at BYU early last month, I like the Dons' chances of pulling off the upset tonight. The fact BYU enters off a 22-point over Pepperdine bodes extremely well for us. That's because the Cougars are 0-6 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons. The Dons are a terrific 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games vs. WCC foes, and a perfect 6-0 ATS off a win against a conference rival this season. The Dons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The Dons are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. Lastly, the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. San Francisco couldn't buy a basket in the first meetings. Rest assured, the shots will fall much easier at home where the Dons are 11-2. Take the points.
02-15-12	Cal Poly SLO v. Cal St-Northridge +7		81-94	Win	100	12 h 18 m	Show
4* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Cal State-Northridge +7 When these teams met last month Northridge was destroyed by a score of 100-54. That loss will have the Matadors out for blood tonight. The aforementioned lopsided defeat came at Cal Poly, where the Matadors also lost by a score of 72-49 last season. Things have gone much differently in Northridge however. Last season, the Matadors won by 15 at home. In fact, they have won 4 in a row at home in the series by an average of 15.5 points. The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. The Matadors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Also, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.
02-15-12	Purdue v. Illinois -3	Top	67-62	Loss	-110	11 h 52 m	Show
5* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois -3 Extremely motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and with a 6-game losing streak to Purdue also stoking the fire, expect Illinois to bounce back strong at home, where it is 12-2 on the season. Illinois has been a force to be reckoned with on its home floor where it is winning by an average of 10.4 points and has wins over Ohio State and Michigan State. Regulars remember that we played on Illinois on Jan. 31 following 3 straight conference defeats and watched the Fighting Illini upset Michigan State. In fact, Illinois is 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Weber when checking into a game off 3 straight losses to conference foes. The Illini have won by an average of 9.2 points in this situation. We'll lay the points.
02-14-12	Youngstown State v. Wisconsin-Green Bay -4.5	Top	65-71	Win	100	11 h 30 m	Show
5* Horizon League Game of the Year on Wisconsin-Green Bay -4.5 This game is all about revenge for Wisconsin-Green Bay, who was embarrassed with a 30-point loss at Youngstown State on Jan. 22. Every 30-point loss doesn't sit well, but this one will especially have the Phoenix jacked up because they had won 5 in a row against the Penguins by an average of 11.8 points. Wisconsin-GB has won 9 in a row at home in this series with these wins coming by an average of 14 points. Each victory came by at least 8 points. It is also worth noting that the Phoenix are 11-1 ATS all-time when looking for revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more under coach Wardle. Lay the points.
02-14-12	Delaware v. Hofstra -3		71-57	Loss	-105	10 h 40 m	Show
4* NCAAB SMASH on Hofstra -3 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and a 1-point loss at Delaware in the season's first meeting, expect Hofstra to bounce back strong tonight. The Pride will be lacking no confidence considering they have won 6 of the last 7 in this series. They have won 11 straight at home against the Blue Hens with those wins coming by an average of 10.7 points. It is also worth noting that Hofstra is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Cassara 15 or more games into the season when matched up against poor shooting teams that make 42% of their shots or less. The Pride are winning these games by an average of 4.8 points. Take Hofstra.
02-13-12	Kansas v. Kansas State +4.5	Top	59-53	Loss	-110	12 h 46 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET (ESPN) on Kansas State +4.5 Motivated by a loss at Texas Saturday, and further fueled by an embarrassing 18-point loss at Kansas on Jan. 4, expect the Wildcats to take care of business at home tonight. K-State is 10-2 at home on the season and those 2 losses came by just 2 and 3 points respectively. It is also worth noting that the Wildcats have a 16-point home win over Missouri, who beat the Jayhawks earlier this month. In addition, K-State won 84-68 in last season's home meeting against the Jayhawks, and that Kansas team was more polished that this year's squad. The Wildcats are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Jayhawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Also, the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take K-State.
02-12-12	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Wright State +2.5	Top	46-70	Win	100	8 h 27 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Wright State +2.5 Hungry to end a 3-game skid, and further fueled by an embarrassing 20-point loss at UW-Milwaukee last month, expect Wright State to continue its home dominance in the series Sunday afternoon. The Raiders have won 6 in a row at home against the Panthers with those 6 wins coming by an average of 12.0 points. The Raiders are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. It's also worth noting that Wright State is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following an upset loss at home. The Panthers have lost 5 of their last 6 on the road and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Take Wright State.
02-11-12	Valparaiso v. Youngstown State		53-71	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
4* NCAAB Letdown Game of the Week on Youngstown State pk Off a big upset win at Cleveland State, expect Valpo to fall flat on its face this evening. Youngstown State has been no pushover in the Horizon League at 8-6 and it has been strong at home at 7-3. Still, I expect the Crusaders to get caught overlooking a team they defeated by 14 last month and 14 straight times overall. In addition, Valpo is expected to be without Kevin Van Wijk, who is second on the team with 14.5 points and 5.2 rebounds. He was huge in the first meeting, leading the Crusaders with 23 points. The team will really miss his presence. Valpo is 2-10 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 74.3 to 65.0 in this situation. Take Youngstown.
02-11-12	Duquesne v. St Bonaventure -5.5	Top	48-69	Win	100	9 h 38 m	Show
5* Atlantic 10 Game of the Year on St. Bonaventure -5.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and an embarrassing 14-point defeat at Duquesne on Jan. 7, expect St. Bonaventure to roll at home this afternoon. The Bonnies have rattled off 7 straight home wins with those coming by an average of 18.9 points. It is also worth noting that each of those victories came by a minimum of 8 points. St. Bonnie has also won 3 in a row at home over the Dukes with those wins coming by an average of 8.7 points. The Bonnies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Dukes are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points.
02-09-12	San Diego v. Pepperdine -1.5		70-57	Loss	-105	12 h 31 m	Show
3* NCAAB CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT on Pepperdine -1.5 The San Diego Toreros have been one of the worst investments in recent years at 21-44-1 ATS in their last 66 games overall. They are even 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that San Diego is 0-7 ATS since the beginning of last season when listed at +3 to -3, losing these contests by an average of 9.3 points. The fact Pepperdine is favored against a team it lost to by 9 points last month is a good sign. After all, the Waves are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Also, the Toreros are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings at Pepperdine. Take the Waves.
02-09-12	Denver v. Florida Atlantic +1		71-72	Win	100	10 h 37 m	Show
4* Sun Belt Conference Game of the Week on Florida Atlantic +1 This is a major letdown spot for Denver following Saturday's big 15-point win over Middle Tennessee. Consider that Denver is 0-8 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons, losing these games by an average of 6.2 points. In addition, the Pioneers are 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pickem over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 11.0 points in this situation (note: I included this trend because the Pioneers are currently a pickem at most books). Denver is also 0-6 ATS in road games in February over the last 2 seasons and 0-8 ATS in road games after having lost 2 of its last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and we'll side with the Owls at home tonight.
02-08-12	South Carolina +7 v. Tennessee		57-69	Loss	-101	10 h 18 m	Show
4* NCAAB BEST BET on South Carolina +7 Off back-to-back games against the league's best (Florida and Kentucky), South Carolina will be primed for a showdown with a Tennessee team it wants badly. The Gamecocks return 4 starters who suffered 4 and 6-point losses to the Vols last season. Those narrow defeats will be the driving force behind an inspired performance tonight. South Carolina is a little bit better than its record might lead you to believe. It's just 1-7 in conference play but 5 of those losses came to Florida, Kentucky and Vandy. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup. It is also worth noting the Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Tennessee. Take the points.
02-06-12	Missouri v. Oklahoma +5	Top	71-68	Win	100	9 h 27 m	Show
5* Big 12 Game of the Month on Oklahoma +5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats and an embarrassing 38-point loss at Missouri on Jan. 3, expect Oklahoma to leave it all on the floor tonight. This is a difficult spot for Mizzou, which is coming off an emotional victory over Kansas and has a big showdown with Baylor up next. As you might recall, the Tigers came out flat and lost by 7 points at Oklahoma State following a 1-point win over Baylor last month. I expect a similar letdown here following such a big win over the Jayhawks. Mizzou has won 2 of its last 3 on the road but both of those wins came by a single point. It's typically been tough sledding on the road in terms of the point spread for the Tigers, who are 18-40-1 ATS in their last 59 road games. It is also worth noting that the road team is 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. The Sooners have won 5 of the last 7 at home in the series and neither of those 2 defeats came by more than 4 points. Take Oklahoma.
02-04-12	Buffalo v. Toledo +5	Top	72-65	Loss	-110	14 h 18 m	Show
5* MAC Game of the Year on Toledo +5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by 4 straight losses in the series, I like Toledo's chances of pulling off this upset. Buffalo has not been the same team on the road, where it has lost 4 of its last 6. It is worth noting that just one of those 2 wins in this stretch came by more than 2 points, and that was against a Northern Illinois squad that's 2-18. The Bulls have certainly struggled at Toledo, where they have lost 6 of the last 7 meetings by an average score of 78.0 to 63.0. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 overall meetings. It should also be noted that the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Toledo is 9-1 ATS in home games after 2 straight games of allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher since 1997. Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. It is also 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Witherspoon after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games. It's losing by an average of 4.0 points in this spot. Take Toledo.
02-04-12	Middle Tenn. St. v. Denver -1.5		60-75	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
4* Sun Belt SMASH (ESPN2) on Denver -1.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Denver to know the target off MTSU's back in its return home Saturday. Denver is a terrific 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons. It is also 7-0 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons when matched up against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. We also can't ignore the fact that coach Joe Scott's clubs are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%). Denver doesn't take many bad shots and shoots a high percentage because of it. This bodes well for us considering MTSU is just 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games versus very good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or more. The Blue Raiders have lost to these foes by an average score of 77.1 to 62.7. Take Denver.
02-04-12	Arkansas v. LSU -3.5		65-71	Win	100	9 h 34 m	Show
4* SEC Game of the Week on LSU -3.5 Off 3 straight losses to arguably the 3 best teams in the SEC (Florida, Mississippi St., Kentucky), expect LSU to take out its frustrations on an Arkansas squad that is 0-6 away from home on the season. The Razorbacks haven't just lost those 6 games, they've lost them by a whopping 12.4 points on average. Arkansas' road struggles extend further back than this season. The Razorbacks are 2-12 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons, 15-37 ATS in their last 52 road games and 24-53-2 ATS in their last 79 games as a road underdog. Arkansas' recent 82-point effort in a win over Vandy suggests a letdown as well. It was the first time the Razors broke the 70-point mark in 7 games, and they are 0-6 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It is also of the utmost importance to note that the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll lay the points.
02-02-12	Arizona St v. Stanford -14.5	Top	44-68	Win	100	12 h 17 m	Show
5* NCAAB Blowout Game of the Week on Stanford -14.5 Motivated by 3 consecutive losses on the road, expect Stanford to roll in its return home tonight. Arizona State has really struggled on the road in Pac-12 play where it has losses of 17, 17, 15 and 21 to Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and Utah respectively. The Sun Devils are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games. In addition, ASU is 0-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive Overs this season, 0-7 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season and 0-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Stanford is 11-1 on its home floor where it is winning by an average of 14.9 points. I like it to roll by 20-plus in this motivated spot against a poor road team. We'll lay the points.
02-02-12	Nebraska v. Northwestern -6.5		74-84	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
4* Big Ten SMASH (ESPN2) on Northwestern -6.5 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, expect Northwestern to take care of business at home tonight. The Wildcats are 8-3 at home, where they are winning by an average of 8.4 points. They have a 7-point home win over Michigan State, who defeated Nebraska by 13 points in Lincoln. The road has not been kind to Nebraska under the watch of Doc Sadler. The Huskers are just 22-38 ATS in road lined games with him at the helm, losing them by an average of 8.2 points. While Northwestern's rebounding has been an issue at times this season, we shouldn't worry here. That's because Nebraska is 0-8 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by their opponents by 4 or more per game under Sadler. The Cornhuskers are also 8-19-2 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. It must also be mentioned that Northwestern is 9-2 ATS under coach Carmody in home games after a close loss by 3 points or less. We'll lay the number.
02-01-12	St. Bonaventure v. St. Louis -10.5		62-86	Win	100	9 h 15 m	Show
4* NCAAB Blowout on St. Louis -10.5 After a big win at Xavier last Wednesday, St. Louis endured a letdown Saturday at UMass and was handed a 72-59 defeat. Motivated by that loss, and back home where they have been nearly unstoppable, expect the Billikens to take care of business tonight. St. Louis is 10-1 at home this season (6-1 ATS in home lined games) where it is winning by an average of 20.6 points. And, the Billikens will draw further motivation from St. Bonaventure being ahead of them in the standings and the Bonnies winning the most recent meeting last February. The fact St. Bonaventure has a losing road record is significant because the Billikens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. St. Louis is the more talented team, and I won't hesitate to lay the points in this extremely motivated spot.
01-31-12	Michigan State v. Illinois +2.5		41-42	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
4* Big Ten SMASH (ESPN) on Illinois +2.5 Motivated by 3 straight narrow defeats, expect Illinois to come out on top tonight at home, where it is 11-1 on the season. Michigan State is a quality team but hasn't looked nearly as dominant away from home, where it has lost its last 2 to Northwestern and Michigan. Illinois' last 3 losses have come by 5 points or less and the 5-point loss (at Minnesota) came in OT. The fact Illinois played Missouri to a 4-point game and defeated Ohio State (2 of the best teams in the country) tells me it can certainly win tonight's contest. Illinois has won its last 2 SU and ATS at home in this series. It is also 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 at home against the Spartans. The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less and 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings with Illinois. Lastly, Illinois is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Weber when checking into a game off 3 straight losses against conference rivals. The Illini have won by an average score of 68.3 to 57.8 in this situation. Take Illinois.
01-30-12	Pittsburgh v. West Virginia -6		72-66	Loss	-110	9 h 24 m	Show
4* Big East SMASH (ESPN) on West Virginia -6 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and further fueled by a 3-game losing Streak to Pitt, expect the Mountaineers to take care of business at home tonight. This is a good situation for WVU considering plays on a favorite off a close road loss by 3 points or less, playing their 2nd game in 3 days, are 73-34 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 5.5 points but are winning by an average of 8.5. It is also worth noting that WVU is 15-5 ATS off a road loss to a conference rival under coach Huggins. It's winning by an average of 12.8 points in this situation. The Mountaineers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. We'll lay the points.
01-29-12	Manhattan v. Niagara +3		87-70	Loss	-103	8 h 26 m	Show
4* Sunday NCAAB BEST BET on Niagara +3 Off back-to-back defeats, with one of those defeats being a 7-point setback at Manhattan, Niagara will be lacking no motivation this afternoon. It will be lacking no confidence either. The Purple Eagles are 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Jaspers, including 5-0 SU and ATS at home during this span where they have won by 7, 24, 19, 17 and 11 points for an average winning margin of 15.6 points. Niagara has quietly covered the spread in 7 of its last 9 games, and the fact it is coming off an ATS loss actually bodes well for us. The Purple Eagles are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Jaspers are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Take Niagara.
01-28-12	Columbia v. Cornell -3.5		60-65	Win	100	12 h 60 m	Show
3* Saturday Night SMASH on Cornell -3.5 Cornell is better than its 6-11 record leads you to believe. It's played 9 of its first 17 games on the road and has tackled pretty challenging schedule with 3 games against teams from major conferences. Columbia has played just 7 true road games and only one school from a major conference. The Lions won the season's first meeting by 5 points at home a week ago, but I expect the Big Red to have their revenge. Cornell is 6-2 at home this season and has won 10 of its last 14 at home in this series. The Lions are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Ivy League, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games following three or more consecutive home games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The Big Red are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games following an ATS loss. The favorite is also 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Lay the points.
01-28-12	San Diego St v. Colorado St +3		60-77	Win	100	9 h 31 m	Show
4* NCAAB Upset of the Day on Colorado State +3 Off back-to-back losses on the road, expect the Colorado State Rams to be upset-minded when they take the floor at home this afternoon. San Diego State has won 9 straight in the series, but the Rams have been no pushover lately, playing the Aztecs to within 1 and 2 points in 2 of the last 3 meetings. The Rams lost by just 2 points in last season's home meeting against a better San Diego State team than they'll see today. Colorado State has been money when the line is tight, going 10-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. It's also a perfect 7-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 9-1 at home this season, and I believe they have what it takes to end SDSU's 11-game winning streak.
01-28-12	Wofford v. College of Charleston -5	Top	68-59	Loss	-110	8 h 39 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Charleston -5 Motivated by 3 consecutive losses and a 17-point loss at Wofford on Jan. 5, expect an inspired effort from College of Charleston this afternoon. The Cougars have won 9 in a row at home in this series with those 9 wins coming by an average of 8.9 points. Besides home-court advantage, revenge is another key angle. Consider that Charleston is 11-3 ATS all-time under coach Cremins when out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponents. The Cougars have won these games by an average of 7.7 points. Take Charleston.
01-26-12	Washington v. Arizona St +8	Top	60-54	Win	100	11 h 5 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Arizona State +8 Arizona State has played 10 home games this season and has either won or lost by 8 points or less in all but one of them. The exception was a 9-point loss to Oregon. Washington has played 6 games away from home. It's 1-5 in those games and its lone win came by just 4 points against a Utah team with a worse overall record than the Sun Devils. The fact ASU is coming off back-to-back double-digit losses is extremely important. Consider that the Sun Devils are 8-0 ATS all-time under coach Sendek after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more. They are winning outright by an average score of 64.4 to 62.5 in this situation. It is also important to note that the Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog while the Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. We'll take the points.
01-25-12	Dayton v. St. Joseph's -4		63-77	Win	100	9 h 13 m	Show
4* Atlantic 10 Annihilator on St. Joseph's -4 St. Joe's finally returns home after 3 straight on the road, and it will be extremely hungry after going winless in those games. The Hawks will also be fueled by consecutive losses in this series. St. Joe's has been one tough cookie at home, where it is 8-1 with an average winning margin of 12.9 points. And these wins haven't just come against slouches. The Hawks have an impressive 9-point win against 15th-ranked Creighton and a 16-point victory over a Villanova team with Big East talent. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take St. Joseph's.
01-25-12	Delaware v. Northeastern -5.5	Top	61-62	Loss	-110	9 h 20 m	Show
5* Colonial Athletic Association Game of the Year on Northeastern -5.5 This is a game Northeastern has had circled since last season when it lost both regular season meetings with Delaware as well as a heart-breaking 2-point loss in the conference tournament. 4 starters return from last year's squad so you can bet the Huskies will be hungry. Delaware has struggled away from home to the tune of 2-7. It has also struggled at Northeastern, where it has lost 5 of the last 6 meetings. In addition, history suggests this is not the time to get behind Delaware. Consider that the Hens are 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Ross when checking in off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. Delaware is losing by an average of 13.7 points in this situation. Lay the points.
01-24-12	Tennessee v. Vanderbilt -8.5	Top	47-65	Win	100	9 h 18 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Vanderbilt -8.5 Vandy saw its 8-game winning streak come to an end over the weekend with a 1-point loss to Mississippi State. Motivated by that defeat, and further fueled by consecutive losses to Tennessee, expect the Commodores to bounce back in a big way. Prior to Saturday's loss, Vandy had won its first 4 conference contests over Auburn, S. Carolina, Georgia and Alabama by 30, 10, 11 and 10 points respectively. If you were wondering how odds makers could possibly be giving Tennessee this many points, now you know. Plus, the Vols are 0-5 in true road games this season. The Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Commodores are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. We'll lay the number.
01-23-12	Iona v. Siena +9.5		62-65	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
4* NCAAB SMASH on Siena +9.5 Back home, motivated by consecutive losses on the road and out to avenge an embarrassing 36-point defeat to Iona earlier this month, expect an inspired effort from Siena to lead to a cover tonight. Home court has been kind to the Saints in this series. In fact, they've won 5 straight and 10 of their last 11 at home against the Gaels. The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win, 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after a win by 15 points or more. Also, the Saints are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. We'll take the points.
01-21-12	Air Force +14.5 v. San Diego St	Top	44-57	Win	100	15 h 50 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Air Force +14.5 This is a major letdown spot for San Diego State following a big win at New Mexico. Air Force has played the Aztecs to 13 and 12-point games in the last 2 meetings, and I believe it keeps this one even closer. The Falcons are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 13.0 points or more, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games as a dog of 13.0 or more points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. The Falcons have proven themselves to be an outstanding wager against elite competition, going 10-1 ATS in road games when matched up against top-level teams (Win Pct. > 80%) under coach Reynolds. We'll take the points.
01-21-12	Syracuse v. Notre Dame +9		58-67	Win	100	11 h 13 m	Show
4* Big East SMASH (ESPN) on Notre Dame +9 The Irish have one of the best home courts in the country. They have won 29 of their last 30 at home with that loss coming last Saturday to UConn. You can bet the Irish will be jacked up to face the No. 1 team in the land, and to do so at home, where they haven
01-21-12	Alabama +11 v. Kentucky		71-77	Win	100	4 h 26 m	Show
4* SEC SMASH (CBS) on Alabama +11 Kentucky has been overvalued all season, as evidenced by its 5-13 ATS mark in lined games, and that remains the case here. The Wildcats have especially been overvalued following a big win, checking in at just 2-8 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. They have also been extremely overvalued on Saturday's, when they receive the most betting attention. They are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games. They are also 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Bama defeated Kentucky in last year's regular-season meeting, and I like it to give the Wildcats all they want and more here.
01-20-12	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Youngstown State +3.5		66-68	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
4* NCAAB Friday Night SMASH on Youngstown State +3.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by a 4-game losing streak against Wisconsin-Milwaukee, expect Youngstown State to play inspired basketball at home tonight. Wisconsin-Milwaukee's numbers drop off on the road as it is averaging 5.0 less points and allowing 4.3 more points away from home. This doesn't bode well for the Panthers, considering Youngstown State is a strong 5-1 at home this season. The Panthers have lost 4 of their last 5 on the road and the lone win during this stretch came by just 2 points. The Panthers are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Penguins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Also, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in a road game when the total is 129.5 or less over the last 2 seasons. It's losing these contests by an average score of 63.4 to 51.4. Take the points.
01-19-12	UCLA v. Oregon State -2		84-87	Win	100	11 h 48 m	Show
3* Pac-12 Bailout on Oregon State -2 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and a 13-game losing streak to UCLA, expect Oregon State to leave it all on the floor tonight. This is a good spot for the Beavers, considering they are 13-5 ATS all-time under coach Robinson after 3 or more consecutive losses. In addition, they are 8-1 ATS in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 77.5 to 64. The Beavers are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Bruins are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. We'll take Oregon State.
01-19-12	California +1 v. Washington		69-66	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Cal +1 This is a game Cal had circled entering the season as Washington won both of last year's meetings by 21 and 32 points respectively. The Golden Bears return 4 starters who remember those beatings well, and I expect them to do something about it tonight. The total paints a picture of how odds makers expect a game to go. Tonight, the over-under line indicates they expect Cal's 20th-ranked defense, which is holding foes to 59.1 points per game, to have success in slowing down the Huskies. We saw 163 and 186 total points scored in last year's meetings and yet we see a total of 144.5 for this game. This is significant because Cal is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Montgomery in a road game when the total is 140 to 144.5. It's winning these games by an average score of 74.2 to 66.8. Washington isn't the same team it was last season. Cal will make that known here. Bet the Bears.
01-18-12	San Diego St v. New Mexico -9	Top	75-70	Loss	-105	12 h 13 m	Show
5* Mountain West Conference Game of the Year on New Mexico -9 I believe 16th-ranked San Diego State is overrated, and this line certainly supports that claim. The Aztecs return just one starter from last year's team while the Lobos return 4. Those 4 starters remember last season's 2 losses to SDSU well, and those 2 defeats will be the driving force behind an inspired performance tonight. New Mexico has been a tremendous investment, going 11-3 ATS in all lined games this season and winning those games by an average of 17.4 points. The fact New Mexico enters this contest off 3 consecutive wins of 10 points or more also bodes well for us considering it is 16-2 ATS in its last 18 after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more. It is winning by an average of 13.5 points in this situation. The defensive end has been the biggest reason why the Lobos have ripped off 13 straight wins. They rank 15th in the nation with just 58.0 points allowed per game. I expect the New Mexico to really dig in defensively tonight on their way to a double-digit victory. The Lobos are 10-0 ATS all-time under coach Alford after holding 4 straight opponents to 65 points or less. They are winning by an average of 16.3 points in this situation. Lay the number.
01-17-12	Maryland Terrapins +12 v. Florida State	Top	70-84	Loss	-110	11 h 15 m	Show
5* ACC Game of the Week (ESPNU) on Maryland +12 This is a sandwich game for Florida State, which is coming off a 90-57 upset win over North Carolina and has a matchup at Duke Saturday. Still riding high following Saturday's win and looking ahead to this Saturday's test, don't expect the Seminoles to give Maryland the respect it deserves here. Maryland has long dominated this series winning 21 of the last 26 meetings. The Terrapins are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Noles have been a terrible investment when laying points at home, going just 14-31-3 ATS in their last 48 games as a home favorite. It's also worth noting that Maryland head man Mark Turgeon is 17-6 ATS as an underdog of 10 points or more in all games he has coached. We'll take the points.
01-17-12	Iowa v. Purdue -10		68-75	Loss	-114	11 h 43 m	Show
4* Big Ten BEST BET Purdue -10 Iowa has given Purdue all it has wanted and more the last two times these teams have faced off. Both of those meetings were in Iowa City. Rest assured, things will be different in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers have won 4 in a row at home in the series and the last 3 home wins have come by 22, 23 and 23 points. While Iowa is improved, it certainly isn't immune to beatings. The Hawkeyes lost to Ohio State by 29 points and to Michigan State by 34 points before Saturday's win over Michigan. The home team is on a 7-0 ATS run in this series and Purdue is 15-4 ATS in lined home games since the beginning of last season. Purdue is also 6-0 ATS after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons, 10-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season, 7-0 ATS in home games after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Iowa is just 1-9 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS in road games on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons. Lay the number.
01-16-12	Baylor v. Kansas -6		74-92	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
4* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Kansas -6 Some teams don't do as well playing on Monday following a Saturday contest. Baylor, for one, is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 Monday games while Kansas is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 Monday games The fact Kansas is coming off an ATS loss actually bodes well for us. The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 7-0 ATS off a home win in which they didn't cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. Kansas is also 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams holding their opponents to 42% shooting or worse this season. The fact Baylor mauled Oklahoma State last game isn't the best scenario considering it is 0-6 ATS following a cover as a double-digit favorite under coach Drew. The Jayhawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Baylor is 0-9 all-time in Lawrence and the last 7 losses have come by an average of 17.6 points. Lay the points.
01-15-12	Loyola (Md.) v. Iona -11.5		63-74	Loss	-101	5 h 58 m	Show
4* NCAAB Blowout on Iona -11.5 Motivated by an upset loss to Manhattan, expect Iona to take out its frustration all over Loyola Maryland this afternoon. Iona has had an extra day to prepare for this contest and should have much fresher legs than a Loyola squad that used a lot of energy to erase a 15-point second-half deficit in Friday's upset of Fairfield. Iona is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the country, currently ranking 2nd in the nation at 85.1 ppg. The Gaels haven't just scorched weak foes either. They put up 90 points on a Purdue team that is normally very sound defensively. In fact, the Boilermakers are only allowing 61.6 ppg on the season. Iona has dominated this series winning 24 of the last 31 meetings, including 13 of 15 at home during this span. Those 13 wins have come by 18, 8, 24,18, 9, 17, 12, 14, 12, 18, 21, 12 and 10 points for an average winning margin of 14.8 points. The Gaels won last year's home meeting by 18 points, and I expect another decisive victory today.
01-14-12	Oral Roberts v. IUPU-Indianapolis +8	Top	81-71	Loss	-102	9 h 8 m	Show
5* Summit League Game of the Year on IUPU-Indianapolis +8 This is a tough spot for Oral Roberts playing its second road games in 3 days, especially since it is coming off a 1-point double OT win over W. Illinois. I expect the Golden Eagles to be a little hungover from that game. They have typically shown the effects of hotly contest wins, going just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a win by 6 points or less. IUPUI will be lacking no motivation here following 3 straight defeats. Plus, the Jags have made a habit of rising to the occasion against top foes. Consider that IUPUI is 9-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. It's defeating these teams by an average score of 76.3 to 72.7. IUPUI has either won or lost by 6 points or less in 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series. We'll take the points.
01-13-12	Loyola Md v. Fairfield -4.5	Top	66-63	Loss	-110	11 h 12 m	Show
5* NCAAB FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on Fairfield -4.5 The Stags are better than their 8-8 record might lead you to believe. They have challenged themselves with the schedule, taking on many quality opponents and playing only 4 home games to this point. Since losing to Providence in their home opener, the Stags have won 3 straight on their home floor by an average of 15.0 points. Home court has certainly treated Fairfield well in this series. It has won 11 of its last 15 at home against the Greyhounds by an average score of 72-64. The Stags have won their last 3 at home in this series by 14, 5 and 10 points for an average winning margin of 9.7 points. The Stags are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. We'll take Fairfield in this point-spread range tonight.
01-12-12	Montana v. Northern Arizona +7.5		78-53	Loss	-111	10 h 29 m	Show
3* Under the Radar Underdog on Northern Arizona +7.5 With Northern Arizona failing to cover the spread in three straight games and Montana having covered the number in each of its last 4 lined games, the value clearly lies with the Lumberjacks. Consider that plays on any team after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games are 103-60 ATS the last 5 seasons. This is also a bad situational spot for Montana, which will no doubt be looking ahead to Saturday's showdown with Big Sky leader Weber State. The Grizzlies are just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Lumberjacks. We'll take the points.
01-12-12	Eastern Kentucky v. Austin Peay St -5.5	Top	65-80	Win	100	10 h 3 m	Show
5* Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year on Austin Peay -5.5 Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats, including a 2-point loss at E. Kentucky on Dec. 29, expect Austin Peay to roll at home tonight. The Governors have had no problem in this series at home, where they've won 15 of the last 16 and 7 in a row by an average of 13.1 points. The road has given the Colonels problems all season. They have lost 5 of their last 6 away from home with those 5 losses coming by an average of 13.8 points. Austin Peay has underachieved to this point, but we should see one of its best performances of the season tonight in what is an extremely motivated spot.
01-11-12	UTEP v. Tulsa -6	Top	48-59	Win	100	10 h 54 m	Show
5* C-USA Game of the Year on Tulsa -6 Motivated by consecutive defeats that came by a combined 3 points, expect Tulsa to bust out of its shell in a big way at home tonight. The home team has had the edge in this series lately, going 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4. Also, UTEP is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 at Tulsa. The Miners lost 4 of those 5 straight up by 1, 11, 23 and 7 points. Looking back further, Tulsa has won 10 of its last 13 at home in the series by an average score of 74 to 63. Under coach Wojcik, Tulsa has been a great investment in this point spread range. In fact, it is 13-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points during his watch, winning these games by an average of 8.3 points. Take Tulsa.
01-11-12	St. Johns v. Marquette -13.5		64-83	Win	100	9 h 31 m	Show
3* Big East Blowout on Marquette -13.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road to Georgetown and Syracuse, expect Marquette to take out its frustrations on an inferior St. John's team at home tonight. The Golden Eagles are 7-1 at home on the season where they have won by an average of 19.6 points. They have the type of explosiveness to really bury the Johnnies in this motivated spot. Marquette blew a 17-point lead against Georgetown and came back from 18 down to pull within two late against Syracuse. The Golden Eagles know they need to put together two halves in this one, and I fully expect them to do so. As if its two most recent losses aren't enough motivation, Marquette will also be fueled by a 12-point home loss the last time it faced St. John's. The Golden Eagles had won eight in a row against the Red Storm prior to that defeat. The Red Storm are coming off a big upset win at Cincinnati but are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. We'll lay the points.
01-10-12	Vanderbilt v. South Carolina +4		67-57	Loss	-109	10 h 39 m	Show
3* NCAAB SMASH (ESPNU) on South Carolina +4 The time to fade Vanderbilt is now. The fact the Commodores enter this contest riding high off a 30-point win over Auburn bodes extremely well for us. Consider that Vandy is just 14-34 ATS in its last 48 games following a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. The Dores have lost by an average of 3.8 points in these games. South Carolina has won 2 of the last 3 in this series, including an 8-point home win last season. It is worth noting that Vanderbilt was a 5.5-point favorite in that game. The Gamecocks are experienced (return 4 starters) and battle tested (already played N. Carolina, Ohio St., Kentucky). They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 lines games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. Also, the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. Take the points.
01-09-12	Idaho State +16.5 v. Wyoming		49-73	Loss	-105	10 h 53 m	Show
4* Monday NCAAB BEST BET on Idaho State +16.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by a 24-point loss to Wyoming the last time these schools met, expect Idaho State to take the floor with a purpose tonight. The fact the Bengals were held to 44 points in a 24-point loss to Montana last time out actually bodes extremely well for us. That's because the Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being held to less than 50 points in their previous game. They are also 6-0 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 3.7 points in this situation. In addition, plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that have gone under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, provided they have won 20% of their games or fewer and are playing a team with a winning record, are 37-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet the Bengals.
01-09-12	West Virginia v. Connecticut -5.5		57-64	Win	100	8 h 58 m	Show
3* ESPN2 Big Monday SMASH on UConn -5.5 West Virginia is 0-8 all-time at Connecticut, losing by an average of 15.0 points. Plus, the Huskies, who will be motivated by back-to-back upset defeats on the road, are 9-0 at home this season where they are winning by 16.4 points. The fact WVU enters off back-to-back SU and ATS wins actually bodes well for us. The Mountaineers are just 1-8 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and 1-8 ATS in road games after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. In addition, they are 0-6 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average of 7.8 points. We'll lay the points.
01-07-12	Murray State v. Austin Peay St +6.5		87-75	Loss	-102	10 h 8 m	Show
3* Saturday Night NCAAB SMASH on Austin Peay +6.5 Now is the time to fade the undefeated Murray State Racers. Austin Peay has had an entire week to focus on this game. It will be fresh and it will be hungry to hand the Racers their first defeat. The Governors are a better team than their record might lead you to believe. They upset the Racers on the road last year and have won 9 of the last 13 at home in the series. The Racers are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 in the series and 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings at Austin Peay. Also, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Winning on the road isn't easy, especially with a big target on your back and in an environment where you haven't had much success. Look for Austin Peay to give Murray State all it wants and more tonight.
01-05-12	Cal State Fullerton v. Cal Santa Barbara -9.5	Top	64-77	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
5* NCAAB Bailout Blowout on Cal Santa Barbara -9.5 UCSB is much better than its 6-5 record indicates. It has taken on a tough non-conference schedule that will benefit it in Big West play. The Gauchos have been a phenomenal wager in conference action ate 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big West. The Titans, meanwhile, are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. conference foes. Fullerton hasn't been on the road in a month, which doesn't bode well for it this evening. Consider that the Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games following three or more consecutive home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following 3 or more consecutive wins. UCSB won by 15 in last season's home meeting, and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Lay the number.
01-05-12	South Dakota State v. Southern Utah +7.5	Top	75-68	Win	100	9 h 56 m	Show
5* NCAAB Underdog Game of the Week on Southern Utah +7.5 Motivated by a blowout loss to IUPU-Ft. Wayne last game, and further fueled by a 5-game losing streak in this series, expect Southern Utah to give South Dakota State all it wants and more this evening. The Jackrabbits haven't played a road game since Dec. 18 and now they're up against a hungry S. Utah squad that is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 vs. the Summit league and 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 home games. Because of SDSU's success in this matchup, it will be much more concerned with Saturday's game at Oral Roberts. With the Jackrabbits looking ahead, and the Thunderbirds out for revenge, this is a good spot to grab the points with the home team.
01-04-12	Auburn v. Florida State -11.5	Top	56-85	Win	100	6 h 46 m	Show
5* NCAAB Blowout Game of the Week on Florida State -11.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and last year's upset loss at Auburn, expect Florida State to take care of business in a big way this evening. Some might find it interesting that FSU is laying double digits with 2 less wins than Auburn. There is a good reason for this. The Seminoles are a better team than their record shows as they have taken on the likes of Harvard, UConn, Michigan State and Florida. The Tigers aren't as battle-tested. Seton Hall and Long Beach State are really the only two quality teams Auburn has faced and it was crushed by 20-plus in both of those contests. Auburn is just 1-3 SU and ATS when playing away from home this season with these 3 defeats coming by an average of 16.7 points. FSU, meanwhile, is 7-1 SU (4-2 ATS) at home where it has won by an average of 17.9 points. Lay the points.
01-03-12	Michigan State v. Wisconsin -5.5		63-60	Loss	-106	9 h 56 m	Show
3* NCAAB BEST BET (ESPN2) on Wisconsin -5.5 Motivated by Saturday's upset loss to Iowa, expect the Badgers to bounce back strong tonight. Wisconsin is 78-7 at home in conference play under coach Ryan. It is also 13-6 in all games against Michigan State under Ryan and has won 8 in a row over the Spartans at the Kohl Center with six of those wins coming by double digits. Wisconsin is 23-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pickem under Ryan, including 6-0 ATS in this situation since the start of the 2009 season with an average winning margin of 11.7 points. The Badgers are also 9-1 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Winning Pct. above 80%) over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12-plus points/game over the last 3 seasons. Wisconsin has won these games by an average of 9.8 points. Bet the Badgers.
12-31-11	Michigan State v. Nebraska +7.5		68-55	Loss	-110	5 h 0 m	Show
3* NCAAB BEST BET on Nebraska +7.5 This is a sandwich game for Michigan State, which is coming off its biggest win of the season (over previously undefeated Indiana) and has Wisconsin on the road next. Nebraska, which was embarrassed by Wisconsin in its last game, won't be lacking motivation here. We cashed in with Michigan State as a favorite Wednesday, but they were clearly showing the value at home against an Indiana team the public had fallen in love with. With that said, fading Michigan State when it is laying points has been the play more times than not in recent years. In fact, the Spartans are just 22-36 ATS in their last 58 games as a favorite. Sparty is almost always overvalued on Saturday when we see the largest volume of college hoops betting. As a result, it is just 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 Saturday games. Take Nebraska and the points.
12-29-11	Virginia Commonwealth v. Akron +1		76-75	Push	0	6 h 56 m	Show
3* NCAAB Line Mistake on Akron +1 Odds makers have the wrong team favored here. This VCU team is not the same team that made a run to the Final Four last season. Only 2 starters return from that squad. Akron is one of the best teams in the MAC and should definitely be the side laying points. Akron is 6-0 at home this season and has won 14 in a row at home dating back to last season. From the perspective of the point-spread, the Zips are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. This is Akron's last home game before a stretch of 3 in a row on the road so I expect the Zips to be ready to take care of business.
12-28-11	Indiana v. Michigan State -5.5		65-80	Win	100	10 h 10 m	Show
3* Big Ten SMASH on Michigan State -5.5 Indiana has dropped 16 in a row in East Lansing, and will have a difficult time ending this skid without starting guard Verdell Jones III, who is expected to miss with a hip injury. Odds makers clearly want the money coming in on the undefeated Hoosiers with this line, but we won't oblige them. Consider that plays against an underdog that has successfully covered the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, playing with 5 or 6 days rest, are 29-8 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average of 8.6 points. It's also worth noting that this situation is 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Big Ten. The home team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings at Michigan St. Take Sparty.
12-27-11	Pittsburgh -1 v. Notre Dame		59-72	Loss	-105	9 h 32 m	Show
3* NCAAB Big East SMASH (ESPN2) on Pitt -1 I know Notre Dame's home court has provided one of the best advantages in the country, but with Tim Abromaitis out for season, Pitt is definitely the better team. Motivated by a bad loss to Wagner last game, expect the Panthers to prove it tonight. Notre Dame has been overvalued all season and is 0-6-1 ATS in lined games as a result. In 3 contests against ranked foes (Mizzou, Gonzaga, Indiana), the Irish have been outscored by average of 20.0 points. The Panthers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. The Fighting Irish are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games, 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 home games, 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a win and 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Pound Pitt.
12-23-11	Manhattan v. George Mason -6.5		61-81	Win	100	10 h 57 m	Show
3* NCAAB FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on George Mason -6.5 George Mason fits into a very profitable situation this evening. Consider that plays on a favorite after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive lined games, provided it is matched up against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, are 45-16 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by an average of 7.4 points and have won by an average of 11.8. The fact George Mason enters off an upset loss actually bodes well for us. Consider that the Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a defeat. George Mason has been a terrific investment at home recently, going 13-5 ATS in its last 18 lined home games and winning these contests by an average of 13.9 points. It is even 29-12 ATS in its last 41 home games when playing with one or less days' rest. It has won these contests by an average of 14.1 points. Lay the points.
12-22-11	Cal Santa Barbara +11.5 v. Brigham Young	Top	75-89	Loss	-108	8 h 30 m	Show
5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Cal Santa Barbara +11.5 UC Santa Barbara is a better team than its 5-4 record leads you to believe. BYU, meanwhile, isn't as good as its 9-3 mark indicates. The Cougars have been getting by without Jimmer Fredette, but they'll wish they had him on the floor tonight. That's because Santa Barbara's Orlando Johnson and James Nunnally are better players than anyone BYU has. Prior to getting blown out by 20 at Cal, UCSB's only defeats were overtime losses to SDSU and UNLV and a 7-point loss to Washington. Those are 3 quality squads. The Gauchos simply didn't play well against Cal and took it on the chin, but that will motivate them here. Consider that UCSB is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following a blowout loss by 20 points or more. It has won by an average score of 67.5 to 62.5 in this spot. It is also 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games after being held to 55 points or less, winning by an average score of 66.6 to 57.7 in this situation. BYU's 15-point win and cover over Buffalo also plays a part in this inflated line, but keep in mind the Cougars needed 13 3-point makes to get the job done. Teams don't go off like that from deep very often, which is backed up by the fact BYU is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after a game where it made 13 or more 3-point shots. Take the points as UCSB gives the Cougars all they want and more.
12-21-11	UT Arlington +6 v. Kent State		74-73	Win	100	8 h 1 m	Show
3* NCAAB SMASH on UT Arlington +6 Arlington isn't quite getting the respect it deserves from odds makers in tonight's neutral floor battle. This experienced team, which returns 4 starters, played 6th-ranked Baylor to a 10-point game on the road and did so while only shooting 35.4% from the floor. Having played teams like Baylor and Texas, the Mavericks won't be intimidated in the least this evening. Kent State has been overvalued all season. It has been favored in each of its last 7 games but has covered the spread just twice in those contests. The Golden Flashes aren't a high-scoring team. They only average 68.0 ppg. With this in mind, I like the high-scoring Mavs, who average 77.3 ppg, to give Kent State a game. Plays against neutral court teams (Kent State in this case) that have gone under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team, are 39-13 ATS since 1997. Teams in this situation are only winning by an average of 3.1 points. In addition, the Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Take the points.
12-20-11	Bucknell +19.5 v. Syracuse		61-80	Win	100	8 h 57 m	Show
3* NCAAB National TV SMASH on Bucknell +19.5 Syracuse is being overvalued the way one would expect a No. 1 ranked team to be, and Bucknell has the talent and experience to hang around. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points after 9 or more consecutive wins, on Tuesday nights, are 22-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 17.1 points but have won by just 11.3 points on average. The Orange are 93-114 ATS all-time as a home favorite under coach Boeheim and 18-30 ATS all-time in home games after 6 or more consecutive wins under Boeheim. The value clearly lies with Bucknell this evening.
12-20-11	Manhattan v. Towson +13	Top	81-62	Loss	-109	7 h 30 m	Show
5* NCAAB TOP DOG on Towson +13 A 10-day layoff has slowed Manhattan's momentum, giving a hungry Towson team an opportunity to pick up its first win of the season tonight. Manhattan is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games when playing with 7 or more days' rest. Towson State played a game last week so it won't be showing as much rust. It is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games when playing with 5 or 6 days' rest. The Jaspers have been a poor investment when laying points, going 18-39-1 ATS in their last 58 games as a favorite. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Also, plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive losses, playing only their 2nd game in 8 days, are an impressive 90-47 ATS since 1997. These teams have been underdogs of 13.7 points on average but have lost by just 11.7 points on average. This is a good spot for the Tigers. Look for them to keep this one close.
12-19-11	Davidson +13.5 v. Kansas		80-74	Win	100	9 h 16 m	Show
3* NCAAB BEST BET (ESPNU) on Davidson +13.5 This young Kansas team is getting a little too much respect here against an experienced Davidson squad because of its win over No. 2 Ohio State, which was playing without Jared Sullinger. The Jayhawks won't have the same home-court advantage with this game being playing in Kansas City, and Davidson will be hungry as it checks in off back-to-back defeats. The Jayhawks and Wildcats have played one like opponent - Duke. Kansas lost to Duke by 7 on a neutral floor. Davidson lost to the Blue Devils by 13 in a true road game. This shows us Davidson is capable of playing with Kansas this evening. Davidson is a team that does the little things well. One of those things is free throw shooting. The Wildcats average 24 free throw attempts per game and make 19 of those for an 80.4% average. This is significant because Self's Kansas teams are 0-6 ATS all-time when playing away from Lawrence against excellent free throw shooting teams that make them at a rate of 77% or better. Kansas has only defeated these foes by an average of 2.0 points. It is also worth noting that the Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Big 12. Take Davidson.
12-17-11	Notre Dame +9 v. Indiana		58-69	Loss	-101	9 h 32 m	Show
3* Saturday NCAAB SMASH (ESPN2) on Notre Dame +9 This is a letdown spot for Indiana following such a big win over Kentucky. Odds makers have overreacted to that win with this line, and I believe we can take advantage in this neutral court battle. Neutral floors have not treated the Hoosiers well as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. They are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite. It's hard not to like the Irish catching this many points as they are 61-45 ATS as an underdog under coach Brey. It's also worth noting that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. The fact Indiana is 5-0 ATS in all lined games this season actually bodes well for us considering it is just 4-12 ATS under coach Crean after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Indiana allowed Kentucky to shoot 55.6% from the floor but was fortunate enough to shoot 60% from 3-point range and have Kentucky turn it over 18 times. The Hoosiers likely won't be able to get the Irish to cough it up near that many times. Notre Dame has had 13 or fewer turnovers in 10 of 11 games this season and 10 or less in 7 of its last 9 contests. Kentucky only made 2 of 7 3-point shots against Indiana. We can expect the Irish to be good from distance a lot more than that as they average 7 3-point makes per game. We'll take the points as Notre Dame takes care of the ball and hits enough 3's to keep this one close.
12-16-11	Cal Santa Barbara +8 v. Washington	Top	80-87	Win	100	13 h 43 m	Show
5* NCAAB FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on Cal Santa Barbara +8 Washington isn't the same team it was last season when it advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament. It lost three seniors from that team that accounted for nearly 50 points per game. As if those losses aren't enough of a blow, the Huskies will be without starting center Aziz N'Diaye this evening. N'Diaye, who sprained his knee last game, leads the team with 8.8 boards per contest and also chips in 7.1 points. UC Santa Barbara is an experienced team that made a trip to the Big Dance last year as well. It returns its key nucleus of Orlando Johnson, James Nunnally and Jaime Serna, who are all averaging in double figures in scoring this season. The Huskies haven't been a good investment at home, where they are typically overvalued, going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. They are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. We'll take the points.
12-15-11	Bradley v. George Washington -6.5		67-66	Loss	-103	7 h 58 m	Show
4* NCAAB BEST BET on George Washington -6.5 Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats, expect GW to take out its frustrations on a Bradley team that is 0-3 SU and ATS when playing away from home this season. The Braves lost by 17 at Wyoming in their only true road game, and I see another double-digit defeat coming for them here. The Braves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Colonials were crushed by 35 at Syracuse Saturday, a butt-kicking that can't be sitting well. Fortunately for us, taking GW following such a lopsided loss has been a money investment. Consider the Colonials are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 20 points. GW gets after it on defense. It has held its opponents to 33.8% shooting on the year. That doesn't bode well for Bradley, who is 2-14 ATS versus good defensive teams that hold their foes to 42% shooting or worse since the beginning of last season. Bradley has lost these games by an average of 10.9 points. Take GW.
12-14-11	DePaul v. Northern Illinois +12		75-52	Loss	-110	12 h 30 m	Show
4* NCAAB SUPER SYSTEM SMOKER on N. Illinois +12 Northern Illinois fits into a very profitable system tonight. Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive losses, provided they are playing only their 2nd game in 8 days, are 90-46 (66.2%) ATS since 1997. It is also worth noting that the Blue Demons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while the Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. In addition, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. As a 9.5-point dog last year, NIU played DePaul to a 2-point game on the road for an easy cover. Playing at home and looking to find the win column for the first time this season, expect the Huskies to give the Blue Demons a game again this year.
12-14-11	Tennessee +3.5 v. Charleston		65-71	Loss	-110	10 h 21 m	Show
4* National TV SMASH (ESPN2) on Tennessee +3.5 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and last year's loss to the Cougars, expect Tennessee to take care of business tonight. Tennessee is 1-3 when playing away from home this season but 3-1 ATS in those games. Also, while Austin Peay shot the lights out last game (59.1%) to hand the Vols a loss, their other losses have come to quality foes. The Vols especially showed well in games against Duke, Memphis and Pittsburgh. College of Charleston is yet to play a team of the caliber of those three, and it is hasn't even played a team of the caliber of Tennessee (in my opinion). The Volunteers are a solid 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 29-13-1 ATS in their last 43 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Look for this hungry Tennessee team to pull off the minor upset tonight.
12-14-11	Princeton v. Rider +5.5	Top	72-71	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
5* 'Never Lost' NCAAB TOP DOG on Rider +5.5 This is Rider's last home game before playing 4 in a row on the road, and I expect it to make the most of it. The fact Rider was kicked by Florida - one of the top teams in the country - last game actually bodes well for us here. Consider that Rider is 6-0 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since the beginning of the 2009 season. It is winning by an average score of 75.8 to 71.2 in this situation. It is also worth noting Rider is 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Dempsey as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Broncs aren't just covering the spread in these games, they're winning them outright by an average of 4.7 points. Princeton has played 4 true road games this season and has been an underdog of at least 5.5 points in all of them. Now, it's laying 5.5 on the road. That's a big jump, one I don't believe it will be able to cover against a motivated Rider squad that's better than it's showed so far.
12-13-11	Central Michigan +16.5 v. Minnesota		56-76	Loss	-107	11 h 59 m	Show
3* NCAAB BEST BET (ESPN) on Central Michigan +16.5 I believe the Golden Gophers are getting a little too much respect from odds makers here. We're talking about a team that is just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 home games, 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more. Minnesota is only winning by an average of 15.1 at home this season. It has won by 17 points or more just twice on the season. The Golden Gophers don't bury many teams because they average just 4 3-point makes per game and shoot under 70 percent from the foul line. The Gophers played well in a 22-point win over St. Peter's last game. They were especially good defensively in the first half, holding St. Pete's to just 23 points. This actually bodes well for us tonight considering Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in home games since the beginning of last season after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game. The Gophers are only winning by an average of 7.4 points in this situation. Take the Chippewas.
12-10-11	Ohio v. Portland +4.5		72-54	Loss	-102	15 h 22 m	Show
3* NCAAB CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT on Portland +4.5 Portland gets the call tonight as plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 20 points or more, in December games, are an impressive 69-33 ATS the last 5 seasons. Ohio is 6-1 on the season and overvalued because of it. It has especially been overvalued versus teams that shoot 42% or worse and allow their opponents to shoot 45% or better. Since coach Groce has been at the helm, fading the Bobcats against such foes has produced a perfect 6-0 ATS record. In addition, the Bobcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Pilots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the points.
12-10-11	Princeton v. Drexel -5.5	Top	60-64	Loss	-110	9 h 55 m	Show
5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Drexel -5.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Drexel to take care of business in its first home game of the season. The fact Drexel enters off a road loss to Delaware is significant because the Dragons are 17-8 ATS all-time under coach Flint when playing at home following a road loss to a conference rival. The Dragons have won these games by an average of 7.9 points. Drexel is 21-11 ATS all-time under coach Flint when playing at home following any road loss, winning in this situation by an average of 9.5 points. The Dragons are also 22-12 ATS under coach Flint in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. This trend is 9-1 ATS since the beginning of the 2009 season and carries an average winning margin of 10.7 points. Lay the points with Drexel.
12-09-11	Idaho +13 v. Oregon State		74-60	Win	100	13 h 43 m	Show
3* NCAAB FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on Idaho +13 Idaho fits into a very profitable system this evening. Consider that plays on underdogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss and playing on one or less days' rest are 124-71 ATS since 1997. That's a 63.6% success rate the last 14 years. Plus, this system is already 3-1 ATS this season. In addition, the Vandals have been a phenomenal investment on the road. They are 3-0 ATS in road games this season and 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Plus, the Vandals are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog. Oregon State is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a home favorite of 13.0 points or more. Take Idaho and the points tonight.
12-07-11	Oklahoma State v. Missouri State -4	Top	72-67	Loss	-110	10 h 23 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET (ESPNU) on Missouri State -4 Fueled by back-to-back losses on the road and further motivated by last season's loss at Oklahoma State, expect the Bears to have their revenge at home tonight. The Cowboys have been a downright terrible road investment as they are 21-44-2 ATS in their last 67 road games. They are 15-39-2 ATS in their last 56 games as a road underdog and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games following three or more consecutive home games. The Cowboys are just 2-9 ATS when playing away from home since the beginning of last season, 1-8 ATS as a road underdog or pick since the start of last season and 0-7 ATS in road games after playing their last lined game as a home favorite since the beginning of last year. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, and we'll lay the points with them in this extremely motivated spot tonight.
12-07-11	Wichita State v. Tulsa +3.5		77-67	Loss	-103	9 h 4 m	Show
4* NCAAB TOP DOG on Tulsa +3.5 Tulsa has lost 5 of its last 6 but only one of those defeats came at home and none of them came by more than 5 points. Motivated by a 3-game losing streak and further motivated by last season's 3-point loss at Wichita St., expect Tulsa to take care of business tonight. This is Wichita State's first true road game of the season and it comes following a big win over UNLV. Riding high following that victory, I see a letdown coming for the Shockers. Tulsa is an impressive 9-2 ATS since the beginning of last season when matched up against very good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 8 points or more per game. Tulsa's ability to rebound the basketball is what really gives it the edge in this one. Consider that Wichita State is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Marshall vs. dominant rebounding teams that outrebound opponents by 7 or more per game. The Shockers have lost to these teams by an average of 7.5 points. Take Tulsa.
12-07-11	Loyola (Md.) v. George Washington -5.5		65-55	Loss	-105	8 h 21 m	Show
4* Under the Radar Blowout on George Washington -5.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats to quality K-State and Virginia Commonwealth squads on the road and on a neutral floor respectively, expect the Colonials to roll in their first true home game in nearly a month. This is the perfect time to ride GW as it is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a loss and 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after trailing in its previous game by 15 or more points at the half. The Colonials are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600 and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. In addition, the Greyhounds are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Loyola hasn't been tested since its season-opening double-digit loss to Wake Forest and it won't survive this test tonight.
12-06-11	Ball State v. SIU Edwardsville +15.5		76-55	Loss	-102	9 h 27 m	Show
3* NCAAB SMASH on SIU Edwardsville +15.5 This isn't a favorable spot for Ball State, which is coming off a 23-point win over Tennessee-Martin and will no doubt be looking ahead to Saturday's big showdown with national runner-up and in-state rival Butler. Butler crushed Ball State by 33 points last season, and the Cards will be out for revenge. SIU Edwardsville will be out for revenge tonight as it looks to atone for last season's 30-point loss to Ball State. Because that was such a lopsided win for the Cards, you can bet SIU Edwardsville won't have their full attention. Ball State destroyed Tennessee-Martin last game as it shot 51.9% from the field, but don't count on the hot shooting continue. Prior to that game, the Cards averaged 39.9% shooting and hadn't shot better than 46% in any contest. The Cardinals have been a very poor investment in non-conference action, going 27-55-1 ATS in their last 83 non-conference games. Also, the Cougars make 8 3's per game and shoot them at a nearly 40% clip. This doesn't bode well for Ball State, which is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game. Take the points.
12-05-11	Arkansas State v. Austin Peay St -3.5		82-86	Win	100	9 h 0 m	Show
3* NCAAB SMASH on Austin Peay -3.5 Austin Peay, which will have its top 3 scorers from last year's 20-win team on the floor tonight, is 0-9 out of the gate and will be hungry to record its first win of the season. It is worth mentioning that a tough schedule has been partly responsible for the slow start. Arkansas State, which lost its top 4 scorers from last season's 17-win squad, enters with the better record (3-4) and yet it is catching points. The Red Wolves have played a relatively soft schedule, winning the two games they were supposed to win before upsetting St. Bonaventure. Odds makers believe the Governors will pick up their first win of the season here and I have to agree. An evaluation of last year's matchups against like opponents indicates Austin Peay is the better side. These two both faced Memphis and SE Missouri State last season. Austin Peay played SE Missouri State 3 times and defeated it by at least 16 points in each. Arkansas State won its matchup with SEMS by just 6 points. Also, the Governors played Memphis to a 2-point game on the road while the Red Wolves lost at Memphis by 7 points. The Red Wolves are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Governors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with an overall losing record. Lastly, plays on a home team that averages 63-67 ppg and allowed 85 points or more in its last game, provided it is matched up against a team that allows 63 or fewer ppg, are 26-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.
12-03-11	William Mary +14 v. Georgia State		34-66	Loss	-110	6 h 36 m	Show
3* Saturday NCAAB BEST BET on William & Mary +14 Due to a combination of William & Mary's 31-point loss to Richmond and Georgia State's 26-point win over Florida International, the Tribe are being undervalued here. William & Mary returns 4 starters from last year's team, which defeated the Panthers by 4 points. In fact, the Tribe have either won or lost by no more than 9 points in any of the last 10 meetings in this series. Georgia State has been playing good defense during its winning streak, but keep in mind William & Mary is 33-12 ATS in its last 45 road games versus good defensive teams allowing 64 points or fewer per game. The Tribe are only losing by an average of 7.7 points in this situation. The Tribe are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home, and the Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Also, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points.
12-02-11	Washington v. Nevada +4.5		73-76	Win	100	12 h 19 m	Show
3* NCAAB CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT on Nevada +4.5 Nevada returns all 5 starters from last year's team, which was embarrassed with a 30-point loss at Washington last year. That loss is all the motivation the Wolf Pack need tonight. Washington only returns two starters from last year's squad and will really miss leading scorer Isaiah Thomas in this one. That's because Nevada's Malik Story is one of the best guards in the country no one is talking about. The Huskies are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. We'll take the points as this experienced Nevada team has an excellent chance to pull off the upset.
12-02-11	Iona v. Canisius +13.5	Top	69-57	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Canisius +13.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses and playing at home for the first time this season, expect Canisius to give an Iona team playing its first true road contest a game. Canisius upset the Gaels at home last season with a 2-point win. It has won 3 of the last 5 at home in this series and the 2 losses during this span have come by just 1 and 5 points. The Gaels are 19-42-5 ATS in their last 66 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. They are also 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 13.0 or more. The Golden Griffins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 13.0 points or more. The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two. The Gaels are 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings at Canisius. We'll take the points.
11-30-11	UNLV v. Cal Santa Barbara +3.5		94-88	Loss	-110	12 h 20 m	Show
3* NCAAB CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT on UC Santa Barbara +3.5 This is a major letdown spot for UNLV after knocking off No. 1 ranked North Carolina. That win also increased the size of the target on UNLV's back. UCSB will be lacking no confidence here as it has defeated the Runnin' Rebels 3 straight times. It won by 6 on the road last season. The Runnin' Rebels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The Gauchos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. This is UNLV's first true road game of the season, and it happens to come against a team that has had its number. We'll take the home dog.
11-30-11	UAB -3 v. South Alabama		47-55	Loss	-105	9 h 27 m	Show
3* NCAAB Soft Line Slaughter on UAB -3 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the Blazers to take their frustrations out on a S. Alabama squad they have defeated 6 straight times by an average of 13.7 points. It's worth noting that none of those 6 wins came by fewer than 5 points. The Blazers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Jaguars are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 home games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Conference USA. S. Alabama is also 0-6 ATS since the start of the 2009 season versus very good defensive teams that hold their opponents to 39% shooting or worse. It's losing to these foes by an average of 20.5 points. Lay the number.
11-30-11	Florida State +6 v. Michigan State		49-65	Loss	-110	10 h 12 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET (ESPN) on Florida State +6 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the Seminoles to give Michigan State all it wants and more tonight. The Spartans are coming off a 32-point win at Eastern Michigan but are 0-8 ATS after a blowout win by 30 points or more since the start of the 2009 season. The Spartans have been a poor investment when laying points, especially at home, where they are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Seminoles are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. FSU was one of the best defensive teams in the country last season and nothing has changed. The Noles rank 8th nationally in field goal percentage defense, allowing their foes to shoot just 33.7%. Michigan State has struggled offensively early on. It ranks 221st in the country in field goal percentage. We'll take the points.
11-29-11	St. Louis v. Loyola Marymount +9		68-75	Win	100	12 h 51 m	Show
3* NCAAB CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT on Loyola Marymount +9 St. Louis' fast start has put it in the top 25 for the first time since the 1993-94 season. Now, it heads to Loyola Marymount overvalued and with a big target on its back. St. Louis is an experienced team, but its early season success is getting a bit overblown. The Billikens have been outrebounded in each of their last 5 games, but have been bailed out by shooting over 50% as a team for the season. The shots didn't fall as well for St. Louis in its only other true road game this season. It shot 42.3% at Southern Illinois and was fortunate the Salukis couldn't throw it in the ocean, shooting just 20.5% from the field. The Billikens likely won't be able to count on poor shooting from Loyola this evening as the Lions have shot nearly 48% in back-to-back wins. Loyola Marymount showed how well it can play when it knocked off then-No. 17 UCLA 69-58 in its season opener Nov. 1. UCLA has been up and down early, but the Bruins have every bit as much talent as St. Louis. The Billikens have been a poor investment on the road in non-conference action under coach Majerus at just 6-18 ATS in this situation with an average losing margin of 4.3 points. We'll take the home dog.

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